Friday, February 18, 2011

A Very Important 55 Minutes

The PMs close in 55 minutes.

All signs indicate that everything we've discussed in the past 72 hours is happening.

We will begin to have some certainty by 1:30 EST.

Be excited. Be cautious. Be excited.


ps The Colonel just called me and said that he saw Silver Eagles being offered at $39! Can anyone confirm? If so...........

In April gold just a close above 1385 is big.
A close above 1389 would be significant.
A close above 1391 would be huge and would clearly signal a near-term run back toward the old highs.

I've got Comex pit closes of about 32.38 and 1389.
I'm confident that what you saw from 1:10 to 1:25 was simply the selling of the greedy, trend-chasers that had piled into the March contract over the last two days. Better to take profits while you can than put up the extra margin and hold for delivery. These folks never intended to hold for delivery, anyway.
What would be nice now is to see silver and gold both rally over the next few hours on the Globex. What we should mainly be left with now are resolute longs. These folks should take advantage of the $0.50 drop and add to positions if they're truly serious about standing for delivery. Therefore, I'll be watching the next couple of hours with significantly more interest than the usual Friday.
I'll also be out until mid-afternoon so I won't post a summary for a while. Check back after 4:00 EST.
Thanks! What a day! TF

ps: Please take the time to read this:
Read this, too. Potentially very bad:


  1. apmex has silver eagles from 35-37

  2. Buy Physical Silver!!
    50$ By April... and then to the moon...

    I hope all people on this board have bought physical silver by now, if you haven't time is running out.

    Modern Day Gold (&Silver) Rush... who would've ever thought?

  3. Re-post from last thread:


    Given all that we've discussed and all we've anticipated about March contracts for the past 6 weeks on this site, how are you feeling about holding through the long weekend?

    I took 30% off the table today when we hit 32.80 and have plenty of breathing room on my trade, but still...

    What is everyone thinking?

  4. Ging
    Yeah, that LVNVF could turn into a silver monster. That's why it's running today, but I went ahead and bought anyway. The $$ came from SLW which is running too, so I figure it's about the same effect as if I had bought earlier in the week.

    With LVNVF I especially like that they just bought out their 49% partner on that monster project. That tells me they are serious about either pushing it forward or wrapping it up in a bow for sale.

  5. pick52,

    as of right now I think I will hold. i don't want to miss out again. if it goes down over the weekend, i'll buy more on tuesday

  6. @pick52, 32,8 seems to be where the only resistance is faced today, something tells me this is only the begining. Did anyone see this:

    I wonder which other countries are getting it wrong!

  7. GGCRF seems to be having a nice day... I think there is a lot of room for this stock to move, but you should do your own diligent research. They merged with Silvermex a couple months ago. I really like their share structure.

    If you are looking for exposure to a junior silver miner that has "been there before," might want to look at this stock. It's volume is picking up and once it passes 1.10 again, it will have broken its 52 week high. It was trading as low at .70 cents 2 weeks ago, now it is near $1.00.

    Do your own diligent research, this is my #1 stock currently in market value. I am hoping the speculativeness combined with its history/production can help bring this to the investment world fast. But we shall see.
    Always do diligent research and don't just listen to others, even if they sound convincing!
    Scott J

  8. Living on the West Coast of Canada (BC), I can share that one of the best places to buy in terms of decent prices is Boarder Gold. They beat out 8 other coin and bullion dealers in BC that I've looked into.

    I believe they also have a bullion store in the States, and in fact the guy I did some transactions through mentioned most of their customers are Americans. Time to wake up Canada!

    Also, if you are trying to time a daily entry into PMs, I strongly recommend you watch Ira Epstein's Youtube videos. This guy has 30+ years of technical analysis experience and posts 2 videos per day (one of which is metals related) on youtube. Check him out. Thanks to him (and Turd), I timed my entry before breaking $30 :)))))


  9. Pick52-

    Regarding the miners, I actually have the bulk of my retirement accounts in miner mutual funds (USAGX), so I anticipate they will do very nicely as they catch up. My individual purchase of Great Panther is paying off, but is also lagging raw silver prices, so it still might be a good buyin at this point.

    And I still haven't seen any info to indicate why my d*mn cotton (BAL)dropped 13%.


  10. Test is right. 32.8 does look like stronger and stronger resistance

  11. I went in on 900oz Silver and 50 oz gold yesterday. I was liquidating some paper to increase my PMs anyway. So, the timing looks good :)

  12. Pick52, 30% off the table sounds right . . . .this is the kind of important decision where i'll end up flipping a coin. On the one hand, this move still has legs, on the other hand, there will be a lot of very powerful people in the market for kitchen sinks this 3 day weekend.

  13. @ Tyler

    Do you think that this test at 32.80 is more of a test of gold sitting at the critical 1390? I think that once gold takes off, silver is poised to make even higher highs...

    I think we may be seeing a little bit of slowdown, but expect it to continue once gold can make some fresh signs of bullishness.
    The Gold to Silver Ratio is now 42.34.

    For those of you keeping track, this is at support... A crash through this would surely explain a silver surge to 50$ +

  14. Go to CNN et al. Control F "Silver" ..... nothing. Even drudge.

  15. Pick 52 I've got a 37 handle on my target. From WB to Jesse to a quick look at the charts and the fact we still have another week before the march contract goes into delivery then 37 looks good to me. I'll be looking for the blowoff top on low volume with maybe a gap up as a sell signal. that's the classic end of a move.
    I'm a long long term silver holder (2004) so I don't sell easy. I will take some small profits on the way to 37 and then sell my 30% or less. probably won't sell more than a small token amount of physical but I have lots of paper and miners to sell.
    Even at that I expect the silver bull to continue and will buy back around the $30 level. I think $50 silver is a good bet this year.

  16. @tyler APMEX $35-$37+... plus shipping.

    @pick52. I am long Ag and Au and standing pat, neither buying nor selling today. Stuck between having a big cash position in case of crash/liquidity crunch across all asset classes or missing the crazy bull market in PMs. Then there is the lurking problem of a currency crisis...

    I am hoping that blogs like this one and ZH will continue to bird dog trends in time to get out in front of any big changes in direction.

  17. Bachman Turner Overdrive --- YOU HAVEN'T SEEN NOTHIN YET --- yeah baby!!

  18. Bachman Turner Overdrive --- YOU HAVEN'T SEEN NOTHIN YET --- yeah baby!!

  19. Awesome people, awesome blog - i am 19, from Czech Republic.. I own myself only 1.5kg physical silver(out of dry powder), but through me, my friends bought another 18.5kg so far.. Thats what, like 2 tonnes of paper silver turning to dust at JMP balance sheet? Even if you don't have cash, just informing everyone around you helps greatly to bring these abominations down. They are all complicit in coming genocide of millions through the famine and ingeneered social meltdown.

    PS: May i ask where can i find real-time open interest Comex March numbers? Thanks! If they don't default this time, they will in May.. There is blood in the water..

  20. @Pick- Just my 2-cents, but I would turn your excellent question around: how would you feel holding significant SHORTS going into this weekend? Sick to your stomach, that's what. I look at that chart today and it looks like the panic selling during an EE raid, only upside down. Just a feeling, but I think there are alot of nervous people just begging for a pullback to get the heck out and stop the bleeding. So I feel pretty good!

    P.S. unbelievable word verify: upecrac
    You can stick your pm manipulation upecrac, Blythe.

  21. @Scottj88 I think you are right 32.8 is looking less of a test as gold makes a secure base of 1390. Won't be shocked if we make it to 33 by the end of the day.

    Thanks again Turd for your insight on an amazing day!

  22. ScottJ,
    That Silv.Mx. action looks good today. It's about time! ..I think it's my largest position as well..

    What is that other play you mentioned you bought in earlier this week or last?.. Avion? I meant to add it to my watch list to do some DD this weekend as well.

    I appreciate all the good tips and info you guys give out here. Between the stock plays ..and ..and oanda ..and forex.. I won't get anything else done all this coming weekend but reading, reading and more reading!

  23. Frank N. said "Go to CNN et al. Control F 'Silver' ..... nothing. Even drudge. "

    CNN is too busy right now with:
    YEMEN protests
    BAHRAIN protests
    LYBIA protests
    IRAN protests
    IRAQ protests
    JORDAN protests
    USA Wisconsin protests
    EGYPT celebrations :)

    All this may also be influencing PMs a bit ;-)

  24. @ dorrogeray Dobry den! Your English is excellent and you seem have a smart perspective for a youngster. People like you give me hope for the future.

  25. OK, Wynter, show us what you've got! Great performance so far today, whether or not you're responsible, but I can't think of a better opportunity to lay the groundwork for a stampede next week than a blowout over the next 30 minutes...

  26. Looks like MonarchPreciousMetals re-upped on their 100oz bars. The cheapie Silver Eagles however are near sold out.

    I told my mother in law today that I took some of my kid's money from their savings account and purchased them silver at $21-22 an ounce. She still thinks I'm crazy. LOL

  27. @scottj88

    if gold sees a move up it will only push up silver even higher. it looks like silver has been doing much of this so far on it's own.

    copper down
    food down
    oil up
    gold steady

  28. "I can't think of a better opportunity to lay the groundwork for a stampede next week than a blowout over the next 30 minutes..."

    I second that.

  29. scott, right with you on slx.

    Test, my fav line (unfortunately) from the article: "However, the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) has told the BBC that it would not be recalculating any payments, even if people felt they had lost out."

    as for March OI, the holders without the necessary funds will drop out. Not sure how many contracts will be left. Of these, the majority will negotiate a premium in cash vs. standing for delivery and a small # of contract holders will actually take delivery. But surely by now, small/larger contract holders must have the courage to stand for delivery and therefore, being able to negotiate a higher premium cash settlement.

    For the poster that mentioned an individual buying 1 contract & standing for delivery, no big deal for the EE but if a # of individual's across the world purchased 1 contract for the purpose of obtaining delivery in the quantity/bar sizes provided, that would be a big deal in addition to the demand from the larger players throughout the world.

  30. Some profit-taking with 20 minutes to go.
    Nothing to be concerned about...yet.
    This will be a VERY INTERESTING 20 minutes.

  31. Yukon plays look good at this time of year as they are inactive.Springtime will see them rise with the recomencing of exploration and drilling.

  32. dorrogeray: Great to have you on the blog!

  33. Tyler, Test, Kiwi, Frank, Wandee, Don, Pining

    All excellent points...thank you for responding and sharing your views

    Opportunities like this in PMs aren't telegraphed so clearly very often, and seeing that we all have the luxury/burden of living through a historical shift in world economics, we know this suckers going much higher

    Wandee - love that analysis, and Pining, that is an excellent way to look at it. What can they come up with in 72 hours that they haven't already thought of to keep this woody down? If silver was Viagra, they'd already be at the doctor's, cause its been a hell of a lot longer than 4 hours

    Like James Dines says, I'm keeping my hand on the iron tiller and riding it out. Giddy up.

    Thanks again all

  34. I think I will open a bottle of the good stuff tonight. My first cheer is to Turd, his blog and the rest of Au/Ag herd here.

  35. @geraldy lol I did the same thing with my children's money last year around $15/oz. Their momma thinks I could be nuts but can't dispute the result.

  36. Tide going out before the tsunami or a fizzle into the close?

  37. They are pushing real hard right now, at least from what I can see on Forex

  38. “Stand up to your obstacles and do something about them. You will find that they haven't half the strength you think they have.” -- Norman Vincent Peale

    I know there will be good days and bad days as the powers that be probably have a Plan B ..and a Plan C.. but I think Norman had it right.

  39. What you're seeing is holders of March11 contracts sell into the close. If you do NOT intend to stand for delivery, you may begin to shift into May.

  40. Wineguy-

    I think you've hit on it...but not the Au/Ag herd...

    We are the "Turd Herd" !

    And damn proud of it!

    Kiwi (do birds go in herds?)

  41. EE attack underway along with weak hands who can't make margin selling and profit takers.

    I see a small bounce now.

  42. @ Opera/Adeptus- Great links. Thanks. I'm in BC as well definitely try out Border. Haven't had so much fun since, well, yesterday!

  43. i think more profit taking than EE. anyway, first dip in a while...

  44. Turd, you don't think the 1:13 10 cent drop was Blythe?

  45. This is why these final 55 minutes were so important.
    IF silver had continued rallying, it was a sure sign that it was all over for the EE.
    Since it is giving back some gains into the close, the suspense will continue into Tuesday.

  46. Me thinks BM might be having a BM in her pants

  47. APMEX has silver eagles for 36.90

  48. Mark: She might have helped out but, to me, this is just organic selling of folks that piled on yesterday and today and don't want to put up the extra margin.

  49. With that over with, it will be a very good sign if silver now rallies on the Globex.

  50. While you are watching silver spikes, might as well listen to some podcasts on silver & miners from Financial Sense Newshour. I like their stuff, they often bring in the guys with 10,20 and 30+ years experience. Sprott was in just the other day. They also recently had several experts in debunking the 100 oz silver bar shortages. The shortages are temporary due to high demand. They are long silver, but also provide a balance perspective. Check 'em out, it's free.

  51. Just closed some HL calls for 200% profit. Didn't want to get too greedy. Strong move today.

  52. Is it possible to do a back of the napkin guesstimate on how many contracts were dumped based on a roughly .40-.45 drop?

    Just curious

  53. Are we expecting an afternoon attack? Would they dare pile on more shorts now--even in future months?

  54. How high are the chances EE attacks now during after hours on the Globex?

  55. Doc: History suggests YES! With everything that looks to be going on...maybe not. Watch very closely.

  56. Assuming this is a dip (of sorts) I screwed up my courage up and bought some more physical...which ensures the price will drop through the floor....

    But as folks say, once it's at 50 it won't matter a bit.

  57. CME report updated: yesterday's Mar OI now -2686 vs -1000 (ish) reported previously. +4681 in May. Mar OI still 53,125. High, but not outrageously so...

    By contrast, at the end of Nov10, we had these Dec OI numbers by date:
    23rd: 42175
    24th: 28268
    26th: 17208
    29th: 5428

    Note drops of >10k OI in each of the last 4 days. Don't get too excited too early about a Comex default.

  58. Not sure if anyone has mentioned it on this thread, but the USDX looks syphillitic- I have 77.64 last. Quick! Manufacture some headlines about Europe before we do some real technical damage!

    Kiwi- That's frightening, I also screwed up the courage to hit some UGL on this dip, on the theory that gold will be playing catch-up on this move in silver... again, sure sign of impending doom.

  59. >F said...
    > APMEX has silver eagles for 36.90

    I would recommend Provident for buying:

    They have always had much better prices. I bought silver a few times from them personally. It worked fine, with fast delivery.

  60. Pining for the Fjords ..... "the USD looks syphillitic" - +100 Awesome

  61. I have also had good experiences with Provident. They have a fair selection.

  62. AgSurfer, you said:

    "They also recently had several experts in debunking the 100 oz silver bar shortages."

    As we are very civil here, I'll simply suggest you get some debunking for the "debunking" those "experts" shoveled onto you.

    The "expert" Jeff Christian of CPM made a complete ass of himself this week with his "Research Note" regarding this topic. Of course Mr. Christian regularly makes an ass of himself, as he did at last year's seminal CFTC hearing when all the dumbass did was blow the whistle on his own syndicate and confirm all the worst suspicions about the true nature of paper gold. Fractionalized to hell.

    GATA's Adrian Douglas blew Jeff's shit out of the water in his response to it. There are very few 100oz bars to be had, period. Those that come online are being snapped up. Ag's latest spike will only create more demand for a metal that already does not provide enough supply to meet all needs.

    Eric Sprott: no argument there, he is a true expert and someone one can listen to confidently about PMs.

  63. Regarding TRE/TNX, it currently sits at $7.04 CAD. Annual meeting is next week (22nd). Given all the short rumours out there does any one have a prediction on Santa's baby?

  64. Nice little upward drift on the Globex.

  65. WineGuy-

    There has been significant discussion on this board of big shorts trying and failing to find people to turn over TRE shares to them so they can cover- 11% premium on share price w/ no takers! I generally spurn these types of rumors, but posters here whose comments I really respect say this is no joke, and I believe them.

    My prediction: I will make some serious coin on this company! I also predict that if they really pay dividends in physical gold, we will eventually see a 10 or 12% premium on this stock, relative to other similarly sized companies, just like we see with PHYS shares vs. spot price holdings valuation. 'Cause that gold stuff? I hear people will pay money for that shit.

  66. Whats up with ECU silver mining? Down big on a day like today? I can't find any bad news.

    I've been adding in the 1.13-1.15 range.

  67. @ pathoekstra from your previous post in a recent thread
    "Looks like Bill Winters (Wynter?)had a real big afternoon yesterday."
    A quick look at RIT Capital Partners on Wikipedia shows...
    "RIT Capital Partners (LSE: RCP) is a large British investment trust dedicated to investments in quoted securities and quoted special situations. Established in 1988, the company is a list on the FTSE 250 Index. The Chairman is Lord Rothschild."

    To those who have contributed the details to this little "conspiracy theory" I am grateful. It's really quite fun to witness the power struggles between the Giants and be able to make some profit based on the information we can glean from Turd and the Herd!

  68. Roger,
    Several of my miners are down too. ..presumably without any readily evident reason.

    Enough others are up though to make it a good day.

  69. Anybody investing in jr. miners and looking for a better understanding of the mining business would be well served to seek out interviews with Rick Rule

    IMO, there is noone out there who is both extremely experienced in the mining community (30+ years) and can articulate the intricacies and cyclical nature of mining

    Go to King World News archives and BNN to listen

  70. Ginger
    Four of my picks are in a group with related ownership. People I am familiar with from 10-15 years ago. You can google Louis Wolfin for more background. They are:

    Avino Silver and Gold (ASGMF): Imminent restart of old mine in Mexico. They mined this for years, and the locals and the Spanish mined it before that. Silver and Gold.

    Bralorne Gold Mines (BPMSF): Imminent restart of tiny gold operation in British Columbia, but tiny market cap to go with it.

    Coral Gold (CLHRF): Sitting on lots of resources next door to Barrick in Nevada, waiting for a buyout.

    Levon Resources (LVNVF): This is the one that's really getting my juices flowing. Awesome looking Ag-Au property in Mexico, recently consolidated ownership.

    As usual, assume I own it, do your own DD. Not trying to pimp anything, just trying to share ideas with everybody.

  71. Noone BETTER than Rick Rule, I meant to say

  72. Appropriately dedicated to The Turd:

  73. Turd, why should those having March contracts sell now? "If you do NOT intend to stand for delivery, you may begin to shift into May. "

    We can also sell next week.

  74. ok, so far I've just been long stocks like PSLV and SLW, however I think I might step out into the options world next week. What does everyone recommend for silver options (closely linked to physical)? thanks

  75. JC,

    If you know SLW well I'd use that...very liquid, incredibly profitable company, and no mining related snags

  76. Re: Turd Lovin

    Turd, isn't it funny how the internet can catapult you to viral? Congratulations, as it seems you have all the right intentions in doing this. I respect your commitment, and relate to your story about "cleaning the toilet bowl," when you have 50,000 pageviewers waiting on you. I am astonished by your ability to continuously pump genuine, non bullshit, pure thought. It is because of people such as yourself that we as a society will wake up to our problems.

    Whether you know it or not, you have already placed your name in the history books. This will be a time where we look back on humanity and realize there were a few good people trying to help out the majority in a time of despair for many.

    Your wisdom and perspective resonate loudly among this website, undoubtedly affecting millions through conversations. Your work is invaluable, yet simple. Look at how powerful the right combination of words, sentences, and graphs can be when put in the right pieces. I hope we can find a way to fix all our mess. I sincerely hope that people understand there is about to be a revolution of values in this country, and to help spread it to one another through goodness and wisdom as the days grow darker for the United States stability.
    Ron Paul 2012
    Scott J

  77. Ginger

    The other one that I am particularly juiced about at the moment is Argonaut Gold (ARNGF). One of their development projects is the La Colorada in Mexico. I remember that one from way back also. Eldorado Gold brought that to production, heap leach gold, and it was their first big thing. Then, inexplicably, they sold it and optioned tons of moose pasture all over the globe instead. I lost interest in Eldorado at that time. But now I noticed Argonaut has it and wants to reopen. Thing is, La Colorada is only about their 3rd or 4th favorite project at the moment! Sounds good to me for their favorites. They also recently consolidated a minority partner on their top property, so I like that too.

  78. @ Ginger

    I was able to procure a solid position of Canadian Zinc (CZICF) at 1.10 (I wanted to get in at 1.00). I looked at what this company has going for it, and was excited to see its volume this morning. I feel like this stock does have to goods with the permit coming in Quarter II, (March?). I particularly liked its 17% stake in Vatukoula Gold Mines (VGM). I like the play, with their relatively awesome share structure. Am I reading this correctly when their market cap is only ~150 million$?

    I am very excited about the possibilities here. And I didn't even go into their mines!
    Thanks for the heads up, my mom's portfolio owes you one :)
    Best of luck!

  79. Eric, Argonaut looks very interesting. They just acquired Pediment Gold at the end of Jan.

  80. Expect EE to attack over the weekend. That's for sure. Everyone is leaving early or taking profit because it's a 3 day weekend, and pro traders are going to go risk neutral, that's why you see profit taking. It's true there is still next week before expiration, but why risk it?

    As we read from Zero Hedge, JPM had a near perfect trading, so we know JP Morgue has HFT machines. Expect EE attack with HFT and drive the prices down.

    Here is the good part. Asian markets open on Monday as usual. It's going to be funny to see EE driving price down Friday and Saturday, and global market opens with a bang, either gap up or straight up on PM prices. Hint: London doesn't have a 3 day weekend. JP Morgue and London aren't exactly on best terms.

  81. Re-post from last night/yesterday's thread....

    Thanks to all who held my hand yesterday...
    I made my buy late in the day, so all is well....just in the nick of time, too!!!!

    Thanks a bunch!!

  82. Countermeasure, why do you expect them attacking this weekend? And I don't understand what do you mean, markets are closed on weekends...

  83. ewc58 & Ginger

    RE: Argonaut

    Yes, I see I misspoke above. I was thinking of the Pediment acquisition above. It was NOT a consolidation of ownership, but a basic aquisition of some advanced projects, including the La Colorada that I was talking about.

  84. I have gotten no work done at the office today whatsoever!

  85. This Post Has Been Removed By Blythe Masters.

  86. Rueters spin PMs today:

  87. I think Countermeasure must have misspoken. There is no trading on Saturdays. However, he is correct that the London market will be OPEN on Monday. Neither Washington nor Lincoln were all that popular in Jolly Old England. ;-)

    I'll be most interested in what Turd expects. Of course I'll be committed in another 27 min anyway....

  88. Eric,
    My office is my home as I run a small internet business and I can COMPLETELY agree with you that absolutely no work is getting done today at my 'office'! :[ ....This is sure fun but if I'd do more of my real work I could maybe make a little more $ to buy into some of your terrific stock plays! hehee ............Ok.. I can't thank you enough for taking the time to list those out for me. I am going to be doing all my research on the ones you listed this weekend and then hopefully buying into at least one or two next week. If countermeasure is right and we have a pullback coming this weekend, it may be perfect timing for adding to the shares AND the physical.

    I do not think you (or your mom!) will be disappointed in CZN.. Of course, like Eric, I'm not trying to pump anything as I know you know that! I appreciate all the good information sharing around here and I say the more people we can all help together..the better! ..Scott, I have to say for your age...and don't take this the wrong way because it's not meant in a condescending way...but you are one sharp guy. I was on your site (again) earlier today and I continue to be impressed with you. Keep up the great work you are doing! If enough people of YOUR generation turn out like you...then America has a fighting chance. I sound like your Mom! (sorry:)

  89. OK, just one more thing about Argonaut. The management are all experienced people that knew each other from a big company (anybody remember Meridian Gold?) and they basically came together, raised serious money from scratch ( I think it was $150 million) and built this company acquisition by acquisition. I think they've built a beauty here and I have confidence they know what they are doing AND can raise serious money again whenever it is called for.

    OK, now I'm done talkin' stocks. Back to work!

  90. Gainesville coin running out of silver watta mess......I'm buying Australian rounds now....trying to get some culls too

  91. Yes Ginger, Canadian Zinc is on my weekend homework list!

    Ok, now I'm done. really...

  92. Just wanted to let you all know that the Miners will run now. I took profits on about a third of my positions and therefore they will continue to run up on Tuesday! Have a GREAT weekend all!

  93. I'm also a fan of Canadian Zinc. Just got in recently when it dipped to 0.82. Been moving up quickly ever since! Seems to have big potential. It's also an NIA pick.

  94. Well, I'm off to the accountant....who told me last year that he had gotten cool, we were discussing our stuff....will compare notes again in a few minutes.

    To finish the day, I dumped my SLV and now have about $5000 profit sitting there...and that's after having already sold off portions...YEAH! Sad to see the 17.16 buy point go, but next year will be the last for the pain in the neck taxes associated with SLV! It joins GLD in the "fond memories" category...

  95. Eric,
    I'm excited about Argonaut.. Can't wait to look into that one! ...Let me know what you decide about CZN ......And you're done now with the stock picks?...reeeally??? Yeah. Sure. Me too. ;)

    NIA is where I first heard of CZN back last Fall. I think they have a pretty good track record for making good picks! It also is kind of cool to be a part of what the Hunt Bros. started back in the day. Kind of like bringing this around full circle.

  96. Whoa.. Insight, That's good profit. When I grow up I want to be like you and book $5K in a day. I'm still too new at this and trying to see what I can do with all of this. Congrats to you!!

  97. Ginger, wow, nice volume in CZN today. Musta been all the talk in Turd Town!

  98. Scott: Thank you for the very kind and gracious words.

    We should all be VERY encouraged by the Globex action this afternoon. It could NOT have gone better. I'm still trying to find time to write an update on today's incredible action in silver. Please give me at least another hour.

  99. ewc58,
    Agreed! Very nice closing at a new high. I wonder what the stocks have in store for us next week. This is all so interesting now. I'm afraid to get too hopeful though as there are so many unknowns. ..But .. still...

  100. Globex silver ticking up nicely as Turd said it should. They are smashed and beaten.

    I can see $100 silver from my House.

  101. Pure excitement! Major shortage at the local coin shop as of this morning, everyone is buying, no one is selling.

  102. Turd,
    This is the only blog where I read all the comments. You've set up an excellent community. Sheesh...take the evening off; some of us really have to get some work done (but always looking forward to what you have to say!!)

  103. ScottJ
    I see on your site you own some ASLRF. Any thoughts going forward on this stock?

  104. @ WINEGUY,

    Regarding TRE.....there is more to this miner than just gold. They have optioned out the property they hold in the Kabanga nickel belt to a large Chinese miner, 3 year option with requirements for spending. If the Chinese goes ahead to construct a mine, 3% net royalties to TRE for life of the mine. In addition, TRE just acquired the Buckreef property from STAMINCO, the State Mining Company of Tanzania. It was turned back by Iamgold as they had derivatives attached to the property and couldnt make it profitable. TRE acquired the property with 709,000 measured and indicated ounces Au, and another 826,000 inferred. The property still has more exploratory drilling to be done. Plus the company has ordered two 200 Ton/hour gravity separation plants to process just the surface gravels which at Kigosi average 3grams gold per the math on those 2 plants running 18-20 hours a day on average for a year!
    The company has been doing bulk sampling at the Kigosi site for over half a year now, and it would not surprise me to see the President bring along some gold dore bars from Kigosi.I will be listening to the annual meeting on the internet Tuesday, and report back any new findings and announcements. (The Buckreef property splits the output with the Govt of Tanzania 55/45).

  105. biosci, great post. distinction, imo, to November is a few contract holders were ahead of the curve & rec'd a cash premium. WB's strong assumption is full or even partial delivery cannot be made - if those players know it, other contract holders must know it, imo. it's about the cash, standing for delivery and being able to deliver.

    My obvious guess, therefore, is OI will fall off but not at the rate it fell in Nov as we get into next week.

    Biosci, one suggestion - perhaps a public google document kinda like what flaunt has graciously done tracking OI for only the delivery months, perhaps going back to March 2010 and moving forward?

  106. Brand new David Morgan audio from FSN, discussing COMEX procedures:

  107. To my fellow TRE-huggers,

    Could there ever been a better lead-in to a PM company annual meeting? What a finish to one hell of a week, leading into the three day weekend. Is Sinclair really that good to orchestrate all this, lol? Nope, I think this is beyond even Santa.
    Shout out to all the folks who shared their thoughts on SLW and GPL, my now biggest silver miners.
    I expect major fireworks next week after or maybe even during Tuesday.
    Have a great weekend.

  108. Hawkeye,

    Those crushers arrived in December, and are most likely already in play. You can see pictures of them at the airport, on he TRE website.

  109. Repost from previous thread:
    Slamhound said...
    Almost Free Silver: In case anyone missed my post yesterday, go to the bank and order $500 of Half Dollars. I picked out 10 40% Silver coins and 1 90%. My friend bought $250 and he got 8 40% coins! Not to bad and you cant lose Money!
    Just thought I would share!
    Just did the same myself ($1000, though), will report back with results, if any. Like the 'Hound sez, no risk, possible upside, nice way to introduce kids to the concept of real money vs. fiat. An easy reference for silver content in US coins:

    As a side note, how does one post live links in the comments section?

  110. Hail to the big shite!

    First time poster here, although I have been sopping up Turd drippings and wiping my dirty mitts on sponsor clicks since the beginning. You are truly a maestro; thank you.

    I have a question for you, a wonderful awful question for you: Im sitting on ITM Mar SI calls, and Im completely verklempt about how to play the coming week. Now, I know that no one (even a clear-eyed Turd) can know the future, but I would love love love to know your thoughts on how the action will play out in a macro sense this coming week.

    Do I exercise and sell on Wed? Do I hold on for dear life thru the inevitable margin call on Thur and even come up with funds to hold the contracts? If so, for how long?

    Again, Im looking more for market behavioral descriptions (your wheelhouse Mssr. Turd) than explicit instructions.

    Id like to think this will be valuable to the other Turdles as well.

    Thanks again Turd for all you do!


  111. ok, so I went over to GVille Coins today. Got there just before 1:30pm when the market closed and silver was dropping a bit (kind of a BTFD opp right there).

    I was there to pick up my Eagles and Buffs order from last week because they called me yesterday and told me they were ready to pick up.

    So I get there, and the guy ends up telling me my gear wasn't really there yet. No biggee I said, I can always come back tomorrow. (I'm like 5 miles down the road from them)

    Then the guy actually asks me if I wanted to sell the Eagles back to him!

    Is that normal? I paid cash for them on the 10th and have been waiting for delivery...they call me to tell me to come get them, then when I get there they say they don't really have them yet, and then offer to buy them back from me for like 9 bucks more than I orig. paid for them!

    I thought WTF??? But of course kinda laughed and said no thanks, but I'll buy 150 Buffaloes right now, which I got for 32.45oz/each.

    I just thought that was kinda crazy, but I don't have much experience yet with all this. Does that kinda show they're hurting for Eagles? Or that they see the price is getting ready to skyrocket again and were trying to play me for a sucker?!?? LOL

  112. @ zzz28

    Always do research before investing in stocks, as there are always risks that may be unforeseen.

    With that being said, ASLRF has run-up over a 1000% since 8 months ago. Here are a few things I can tell you about why I think it will perform nicely in the future:

    --Sprott Assets own 17% of this company, up from a reported 12.3%. You can bet they aren't here for no reason...
    --They are currently deep in their drilling phase at one of their premier sites
    -- They have an estimated 200million oz of silver, and want to reinvest 60-70% of their revenue into digging up new silver. Read this article for in depth knowledge.
    -- They are producing now, at a good rate. I think producers combined with speculators are going to be the creme de le creme for immediate profits...
    --I remember reading that 85% of their land is unexplored, and some of it could be potentially the canary of the silver belt mining in Mexico.
    --They are one of the only plays that people in the international world can get in (I remember reading this specifically about Britain), and should help to their bullishness..

    On top of all of that, it has been a workhorse. When they release their income report, I am looking for this baby to fly. It was once upwards of .90 cents and is sitting near .75. It pulled back to .625 on the pinks.

    These are the things I can remember about Arian silver right now,
    Please do diligent research and don't just take my opinion. My whole family is heavily invested in this stock, as I believe it could be one of the better picks... it still has room to run..

    Scott J

  113. @Letey: Just one opinion, take it for what it's worth. I think next week will bring unprecedented buying pressure as vultures start to circle the COMEX vaults looking for "premium" flesh.

    Like the past couple of days, solid buying opportunities could be minimal. Personally, I would be disappointed if we hit next Friday and spot were hovering around $35. I think $37-$40 is more likely.

    Blythe is short on conventional weapons to fight next week's battle and further shorting only deepens her problems. Unless something comes completely out of left field (stock market crash, major rule change), it's going to be a monster week.

    Once we hit March 1 and everyone who is going to stand for delivery plops down their cash, I think all bets are off. We could see anything ranging from a bloodbath back down to $30, to a "Supernova" explosion of the COMEX. I expect I'll be switching over to low-risk instruments come March 1, especially if we're nearing $40 spot.

    Just my .02.

  114. Justin: Good link. I get lazy sometimes and don't put the tags in but it's nicer than cut and paste!


  115. Great blog, great people, great job Turd! Your the man! I appreciate you!

  116. Scott J
    Thank you very much.I already own it,I just wanted to get some more.Your thoughts are good to hear. Thanks again

  117. Thanks CO_Dan.

    Methinks those .02 are comprised of pre-1981 pennies....


    worth reading/skimming today's notes.

  119. Wow looks like it was a crazy afternoon. Glad I wasn't able to watch :)

  120. My experience in coin stores today, FWIW: at about 12:30 when spot was 32.71, I paid $36 for silver eagles, and cleaned out one store (bought 30; the guy's last 5 he had reserved for someone else). At 3:30 at a different store, when spot was 32.49, bought 30 more eagles for $35, and this particular dealer had plenty - showed me a drawer full of them. So it seems like a dealer-specific phenomenon; these guys were only 15 minutes apart, tops.

  121. updated the silver backwardation chart. There is one month in 2014 that is NOT in backwardation. Everything else if flat or backward.

  122. I'm seeing single Silver Eagles selling for $35+ (somtimes as high as $38) on eBay BEFORE shipping costs!

  123. MF Global PM analyst Tom Pawlicki says technically the next big resistance area for silver is near $36.50 an ounce:
    Silver Prices Are Surging, but Can It Last?

  124. Interest commentary from Gene Arensberg that ought to ruffle a few feathers around here:

    "We envision a scenario where the ETFs might have to suspend new share creation due to scarce commercial product availability, despite record scrap purchases by the world’s bullion dealer network. Even a large mountain of silver scrap won’t help answer heavy demand for commercial bars as long as the refiners are unable to process it fast enough. Such a scenario could end up driving the ETF shares to unheard of premiums, similar to closed-end funds which cannot continuously issue new shares to shunt excess demand or redeem shares to prevent the issue trading at a discount."

  125. Hey Turd, congrats on a glorious week. Question, why do you think its JPM?

  126. @flaunt: Plausible, IMHO. Like yelling "FIRE" in the burning SLV theatre.

    What I wouldn't give to be sitting across the table from Jon Nadler when that news hits the wires...

  127. @flaunt... The issue of the ETFs being able to obtain sufficient reserves, by any means, is something I've been wondering about for about two weeks.

    I've got a "ton" of physical silver and have been playing SLV for a long time as well. My plan was to be 100% out of SLV late next week and to actually put some speculative naked shorts out there while watching what happens come March 1st. Now I'm considering either hedging my position in SLV or some mix of sell off, hedge and naked shorts.

    Any thoughts anyone?

  128. @Fortinbras: That's exactly my strategy. As of March 1, long miners, short SLV (put options, probably). Plus the obvious physical.

    Sounds like a hedge, but honestly, I think there's a good chance that BOTH could hit and hit big.

  129. @Fortinbras: One relatively obvious observation -- I would imagine most everyone here is going to adjust their March 1 investment strategy based on how many contract are Standing for Delivery at the COMEX come March 1.

    I expect that to be a central topic of discussion in Turd's World next week.

  130. Hey Turd, any thoughts on GATA's latest FOIA release?

    Great site btw

    Also @ the folks talking TRE - Thanks for bringing this up again as I'd been meaning to add to my position... Very interested to see how all this pans out..... Anybody with me when I say it feels like I'm holding dollars to hedge the my PMs lol?

  131. Hawkeye Investor ... Thanks. Purchase some more today. As the Black Eye Peas would say ... I've got a feeling, tonights the night.

    I appreciate your reply and all others that have replied.

  132. Silver Eagles are 35.93 on Kitco, 35.43 if you buy 500 or more

  133. This comment has been removed by the author.

  134. g-ville has ASE @ 500/$35.09 ea.

  135. @ Flaunt, CO_Dan, Fortinbras

    Would one of you mind explaining to a slow student why a shortage of silver leads you to short SLV?


  136. @caramel - Thanks. I'm not going to make any guess about what happens to OI in the next week, but I'm dying to find out. It's the scientist in me.

    I'd consider a historical post if I could find the data. CMEgroup reports only go back 3 months, from what I can tell. And, truth be told, I probably wouldn't maintain it. :)

  137. PS: I currently have SLV April calls, I take it I should be out of those in a few days?

  138. If people ask to take delivery of real silver instead of paper and SLV can't deliver, they will be in a world of hurt. Rumor is that they don't actually own enough real metal to back up all the paper they have sold.

  139. Hey All:

    Congrats on a great week!

    I'm going to pose what sounds like a longwinded noob question - but I'd be interested to hear thoughts (more than simply calling me a dumbass sheep) or links to well reasoned arguments or descriptions would be appreciated also.

    We've long heard to stay away from paper as the short crunch approaches. Some folks here are now talking about actually shorting SLV here in a week or so based on, I think, the comex's potential issues.

    I've been playing AGQ and SLV (and options, mostly) for profit for a bit and have read the prospectus, etc. So here's my thinking: if the comex gets in trouble, it's not "the comex" that defaults, it's who sold futures contracts without being able to acquire the necessary physical should they be required to deliver. The comex facilitates the trade - it doesn't make it. So, sure, I see whoever can't find some physical to deliver is fucked. But to me that isn't the comex. And it's not SLV (or GLD) either; they have no futures to fulfill. They deal in physical, which is why it's taxed as a collectible asset trust rather than a pass-through approximating and asset's value through futures.

    SO, when folks anticipate SLV dumping or no-bidding: is it because the published trust assets simply aren't believed? Is there another reason?

    I really respect the dialog and the thoughts of many of the folks on here, so I'm excited to hear some thoughts and opinions. At this point, I fear the volatility of the market we're faced with, but I tend to not fear the integrity of the SLV vehicle itself.

    Have a great long weekend, state-siders, and a great regular weekend to the rest of y'all!


  140. @Save_America1st: Congratulations. You have just experienced firsthand the creation of an alternative currency backed by metal: your receipt. Just a piece of paper stating your right to an asset. Later you had the opportunity to trade it for more USD than you gave for it. Fascinating, huh?

    No, you almost certainly weren't getting screwed. They just need metal to sell. Business is good, obviously.

  141. @lord koos

    Thanks! I guess I had tunnel vision and was thinking the situation in the futures market would drive the price up. I didn't think about ETF holders demanding physical delivery, but of course they can.

    Supposedly SLV holdings have been accounted for, but I understand it's all about perception. That's why I asked my earlier questions about whether JPM's (expected)inability to deliver metal might impact confidence in their ETF.

    BTW, contrary to what someone else told me IRT that question, JPMC London IS the custodian of SLV, not HSBC.

    Thanks for helping me understand!

  142. Ouch, ECU down .10 from where I bought at today. Usually I'd double down because I trust the company but, I'm going to wait and see if I can pick some up now at 1.05, seems to be pretty solid support, if a junior has such a thing. Was hoping for a little more in USAGX than we got today. Thank you all for the recommendations on the miners.

  143. @Jon: The comex is *the* price discovery mechanism for silver. If contracts there aren't reliable, what's the price of silver?

    Full disclosure: I have no idea what the answer is. But everyone seems to think "higher" is a good guess.

  144. @oldNavy - It is my understanding that SLV and GLD are mere warehouses for OPB (other people's bullion). The OPB allowed for the creation of the ETFs by acting as their reserves. Many believe they have acted the same way and sold far more shares than actual reserves safely allow. These reserves of OPB can be reduced if the original owners return to reclaim their bullion or if the ETF shareholders redeem enough shares and stake a claim for the SAME bullion. This can cause selling pressure on the ETF price only because their reserves are being called in because of the demand for physical.

    At least that's how I understand it. I don't know how price discovery works in relation to their reserves but it's reason enough to stick to Sprott funds IMHO.

  145. @Prize Fighter

    Thanks! I am convinced. See you all on the new thread!

  146. @oldNavy, I think the "money" question is this: If 20,000 contracts (100M oz) stand for delivery and there's only 40M oz of silver to deliver, what happens next?

    I honestly don't have an answer. Hard default? The SLV prospectus states that it can provide cash delivery, but that's no different than a default. Massively delayed delivery? A rules change from the CFTC that protects JPM and somehow sticks it to the longs (that would be my guess)?

    As I think through the many options (none of them pretty) for JPM to extracate themselves, most of them will ultimately announce to the world that the LBMA, COMEX and SLV are a joke, not in their own right (as Jon rightly points out), but because JPM and their partners in crime have utterly corrupted them.

    At that point -- mid- to late-March, I believe -- the market starts turning its back on the COMEX and looking for a new method of price discovery.

    When that happens, Blythe can naked short to her heart's content and drive SLV to zero. New buyers will look (scramble!) for new venues for their PM purchases while existing SLV investors look for blood.

    Not saying this WILL happen, just that the risk is high enough that I believe it worthwhile to short SLV. AND, it's all predicated on just how many contracts are still standing March 1.

  147. Happy to be wrong about my 31.25 call...!

    Has the EE run out of ammunition??

  148. Turd, thanks for the blog. The more information that can be disseminated to the masses, the better off we all are and you are surely doing your part here so for that I am grateful. Seems like a there are a good mix of newbies and those with more experience so you are providing the vehicle with which to educate those who need to learn.

    As for the recent run, looks like it won't be stopping for a while. Could be the Wynter effect or perhaps JPM is in cover mode. Once thing is for certain, silver is seriously undervalued and owning physical is must for everyone.

    Next week should be interesting since the EE has a long weekend to plan for some shenanigans come Tuesday although whoever is doing the recent buying seems to be well funded and is singularly focused so I'm less concerned with what the EE is up to and more concerned about the buyers' intentions, i.e. at what point do they take a breather and allow the EE to effectively raid the PMs again?

    Anyway Turd, thanks again.


  149. Not sure why my ID is coming up as gobbleygook. Will look into it.