As day one of our three-day respite churns along, I thought it might be a good idea to introduce our new readers to some of the nuances of Turd's World. We reached a new record in pageviews yesterday at 60,400 so there are certainly more than a few neo-turdites reading this.
First up, we use a number of acronyms and slurs here. You can find a handy glossary here:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/turds-glossary.html
Here's a primer on how I forecast things:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/11/turds-crystal-ball.html
This might be helpful:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/11/anatomy-of-ee-attack.html
Before the next family picnic, you might want to review this:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/11/absolute-advice-for-relatives.html
Folks ask all the time about which miners I like:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/11/this-might-take-minute.html
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/little-hui-on-side.html
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/02/miner-key.html
When fighting with the EE, you've always got to be on the lookout for this:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/ok-now-im-pissed.html
Here is the official national anthem of Turd Nation:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/uprising.html
If you want to get into the futures options trading madness, you should read this:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/opening-options-account.html
Here's a recap of my first, public prediction:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/1500-by-121010.html
Here are three posts that the brutal ways of the Evil Empire:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/criminal-evil-empire.html
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/wicked-witch-of-new-york.html
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/this-is-getting-ridiculous.html
When we discuss "preparing accordingly" it often is in the context of the coming "super"-inflation:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/move-along-please-nothing-to-see-here.html
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/preparing-accordingly.html
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/02/preparing-accordingly-ii.html
The first Friday of the month is always a lot of fun around here:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/bls-bs.html
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/putting-bs-in-bls-bs-report.html
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/02/more-bls-bs.html
So are the days when the new POMO schedules are announced:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/you-dont-tug-on-supermans-cape.html
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/02/madness-continues.html
If reading is too complicated for you, I've also made a few little "movies" which help explain things:
http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/8266652/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FGVtJRWP6k
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBGqtOKmWHo&feature=related
Lastly, I gave my readers what is now referred to as "Turd's Bottom" when no one...and I mean no one...was willing to stick their neck out and take a stand. I also issued another prediction:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/darkest-before-dawn.html
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/1600-gold-by-june-10-2011.html
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/end-is-near.html
So, there you have it...all the Turds that are fit to print. I hope you are enjoying a fun, relaxing weekend.
More tomorrow. TF
Turd, have you ever considered writing a book about all this? I think you should...
ReplyDeleteAnonymity is a beautiful concept.
ReplyDeleteA person can tell the truth to the world without the fear of the "The Powers That Be" TPTB moving in and silencing that voice forever. There is a long history in the USA of anonymous writers, beginning with our founding fathers, like Samuel Adams who used multiple pseudonyms and of course Tomas Paine, without whom there would have been no American war for Independence.
I, for one, wish for the Turd to remain anonymous, to have the freedom to speak his mind honestly, and live his private life as he wishes. Please, my fellow investors, do not try to figure out his secret identity, and if you do, respect his wish for anonymity. May the Turd continue this fine blog indefinitely, with a community of fine readers interacting intelligently, all of whom have the right to remain anonymous.
The anthem has been removed from YouTube. I'd simply like to know what it is.
ReplyDeleteWow, went to log in to comment and lo and behold, another update! Thanks again for your hard work and dedication to keep all of us from the four corners of the globe informed turd! Was actually logging in to send out another thank you too. I forget who brought it up, but I didn't know that you could trade xag on the forex. I've played around with currencies years back and decided that wasn't for me...however, silver is another story altogether. I did some math and am setting up a new account for playing with some risk capital. The ease of use and leverage provided by trading silver on the forex will (hopefully) greatly aid my efforts to stack more physical, as well as improve my fiat flow. When I get the account going positive I will help feed the turd! For now I just visit the sponsors on the way out. Million thanks for the heads-up!
ReplyDeleteVery nicely said, Dr. Jerome.
ReplyDeleteI am curious but I will not try to find out. I would have liked to have seen his CNBC bit because ..well, I'm nosey like that. :]
Here's an alternate anthem:
ReplyDeleteOpen Your Eyes!
Video games train the kids for war. Army chic in high-fashion stores. Law and order's done their job. Prisons filled while the rich still rob. Assassination politics. Violence rules within' our nation's midst. Well ignorance is their power tool. You'll only know what they want you to know. The television cannot lie. Controlling media with smokescreen eyes. Nuclear politicians picture show. The acting's lousy but the blind don't know. They scare us all with threats of war. So we forget just how bad things are. You taste the fear when you're all alone. They gonna git'cha when you're on your own. The silence of conspiracy. Slaughtered on the altar of apathy. You gotta wake up from your sleep. 'Cause meek inherits earth...six feet deep.
Open your eyes see the lies right in front of ya. Open your eyes.....
Rock on Turd.....have an adult beverage for me.....could be a interesting week.
ReplyDeleteOn this one year anniversary of the Vancouver Winter Olympic Games, I think all you coin bugs will appreciate this short video (middle right on the page) ~ making of the medals (appox 20 ounces each) at the Royal Canadian Mint:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.mint.ca/store/mint/learn/medals-4400016
Here's a pic I took near the Vancouver waterfront:
http://postimage.org/image/1seky4lqc/
Have a great weekend all
@ McClure (from previous post)
ReplyDeleteMaybe the 'Pilgrims'? Stated goal of uniting England/U.S. over 200 year span starting about 1903? Amassing obscene wealth at the expense of all inferior 'little people'?
We already saw what their cause consists of---appropriating wealth
owned by those it disapproves of, and weakening the sovereignties of the
individual nations so they can form their sought-after world government.
Lord Desborough chaired the Pilgrims London, 1919-1929 and was a
member of the Grenfell family which included a Governor of the Bank of
England, and he was first cousin of a partner in the J.P. Morgan banking
domain. The 2002 book, page 62 says, “King George V was very friendly
with such influential Americans as the banker J.P. Morgan.” J.P. Morgan
organized the Panic of 1893 and 1907, to dislodge wealth from the middle
class and serve as excuses to create another central bank, which King
George V wanted.
Gee, dislodge wealth from the middle class and create a central bank by JPM. How resonate today.
http://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/archivos_pdf/world_money_power.pdf
Thanks Turd. I got to look down the hole starting about a month ago. Have purchased Ag and food/water storage. Follow Ferfal blog. Buy his book. $400 or $4000 silver would be good for owners of it but I really wish that when I call for an EMS or policemen, they would come. I do not want going to the store to get a gallon of milk and a loaf of bread to be a distant memory. Family, friends, community. Do your best to prepare. Hate being marginalized, how about you?
Peace.
Love the Turd!
ReplyDeleteReader since the first day, but first time posting. I ask this question in this thread just because this is the current thread, and because my question is time-sensitive. Forgive me for being somewhat off-topic form this particular post:
ReplyDeleteI have about $50,000 in cash trapped in an IRA. I cannot withdraw the cash because of the tax penalties.
I want to invest this cash in physical PMs.
I'm looking at CEF and PSLV.
What would you do with this money as far as investing in physical PMs? How much would you allocate to each CEF and PSLV? would you also include other trusts? And, most importantly, when would you make the move? I'm considering this Tuesday. Thoughts?
Here's an article just posted on Seeking Alpha:
ReplyDeleteMacro Factors Show a Lot of Room to Run for Silver
Turd, may I suggest maintaining a link on the front page to the "Getting Up To Speed" post? It will prove helpful to new visitors and, at the current trajectory, you're going to have many of them.
ReplyDeleteRoger, good article to support investing in Physical but, Jesus wept, stay away from the ETF
ReplyDelete"Among other things, the rights of an investor in SLV are limited by the custodial agreement (with JPMorgan Chase (JPM)), which limits the custodian’s liability for loss and which makes no assurances to the purity of the silver it holds."
Been a dumpling in Turd's global bowl since the beginning. Have not contributed due to comment posting difficulties. Question, we seem to see a lot of info about Crimex, true or not, but what about LBMA? Where are they in all this? What about the emerging bullion centers in Asia?
ReplyDeleteAny thoughts?
Vic, I don't have any experience with IRAs but I do notice some bars are noted with being "IRA Acceptable." I don't know how these can be allocated within your account or who holds them. Can you just roll current funds into these or are these only for new funds?
ReplyDeleteHere's an example:
100oz Apmex bar
I hope you get a qualified answer. I'm interested in how these work as well.
Welcome Turdling.
Vic, I have a roth and traditional IRA as well and have been burdened with the decision of whether to liquidate and go physical PM's. The last research I did I learned you can legally hold physical pm's in a IRA but, you have to have a holding company/trust that has physical possession of it/not you. That turned me off, cuz if your going to have physical metals the point is to be able to hold it/touch it and take it places whenever you want. So, because I also can't pull the trigger on liquidating and paying those penalties/taxes, I use the proxies PHYS/PSLV and PM mining stocks and USAGX mutual fund. Over the last two years I kind of look at the IRA's as a funny money monopoly game now and really have learned to love trading those stocks. I haven't put any more money into them for the last two years, I now save that money and just buy physical pm's with it or pay down debt, my own hands on IRA, the way it was meant to be. Eric and DaddyO from this blog have helped me with this outlook, but everyone's different. My own personal portfolio is about 30% PM mutual fund USAGX, 30% PHYS/PSLV, and 40% individual mining stocks. I know there are a lot of good people on this Turd Blog that probably have additional or better recommendations and believe me, a lot of us are in the same boat as you hoping a praying we get our IRA's back someday. I'm fortunate that I came to the PM bull party early, but I'm confident they'll still give you the protection you'll need for the coming storm. Good Luck!
ReplyDeleteVic
ReplyDeleteRemember that CEF is half gold half silver to begin with. Allocation is purely up to you. I tend to run about two parts gold to one part silver, but others would differ. CEF would be an excellent choice as a one stop shop to just take care of the whole thing.
Timing is tricky. Generally I think the feeling on this board is that timing is a big deal if you are doing options or mining stocks, but if you are talking physical, where you are going to just keep this for the very long term and not trade, then just go ahead and take the plunge right away.
As somebody said on this board recently, if we are looking for $50-100 silver, are you really going to care in the long run if you paid 30 or 33?
Well there you go.
ReplyDeleteGreat stuff SoccerDad. Thanks for the info.
Vic, like SD above, I have mix of miners, PSLV, PHYS, CEF, GTU in my PM portfolio. I also try and diversify where miners opperate due to possible political impact.
ReplyDeleteVic, 401K related article here
ReplyDeletehttp://dumpdc.wordpress.com/2010/05/30/put-gold-and-silver-in-your-ira-or-401k/
Professor Turd is making history in front of the eyes of all the corrupts....people around the world is awaking because this planet is coming to a end, and Turd is been a real leader here...please Sir, don't stop wrinting in this blog, people need real leadership, thanks for everything.
ReplyDeletePS: Here's a tidbit from that Seeking Alpha article I linked to above:
ReplyDelete"After the successful launch of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China’s Gold Accumulation Plan, it would seem to make sense for a similar silver plan to be made available to Chinese buyers. If this were to occur, there would be an unprecedented increase in silver demand.
"Third, it is possible that China might consider monetizing silver (e.g., by issuing silver coins) to “sop up” the excess liquidity in their system."
More good stuff from Matt Taibbi:
ReplyDeleteWhy Isn't Wall Street in Jail?
Financial crooks brought down the world's economy — but the feds are doing more to protect them than to prosecute them.
Turd wins!
ReplyDeleteYour $1,600.00 price before June 2011.
1/10 oz. gold coins start as low as $160.00*. We have Gold American Eagles for every price range. Shop all 2011 Gold American Eagle Coins today!
Respectfully,
David McCarty
Director of Marketing
American Precious Metals Exchange
Mrs. Feguson 2012
Thanks Roger Knights, good article, hadn't heard the one about China monetizing silver. I wonder where he got that? Haven't heard it from the usual places anyway. I tend to think the silver's flowing to China so they can hold onto the tech. manufacturing base and protect the new middle class against inflation, but if monetization is true, whoa, several hundred/thousand dollar silver here we come.
ReplyDeleteJW, I'm setting up an account at OANDA mainly to trade XAG - my first foray into forex. The Cat 5 death-to-silver-shorts hurricane, brewing at the Comex, is an opportunity not to be missed.
ReplyDeleteI wonder how this might affect the metals markets on Tuesday...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/19/us-egypt-iran-canal-idUSTRE71I3QW20110219
@ soccerdad
ReplyDeleteI started couple years ago to both liquidate and pay the taxes at about 1/5 account value per year. Balance is in CEF and a few miners. Ultimately my fear is annuitization of IRA / 401K by gov't to finance ponzi debt.
So far so good, and I have 40% "off the grid" so to speak.
Turd,
ReplyDeleteA great week for you. Hope you're enjoying your weekend and that Mrs F is giving you a break from toilet cleaning duties!
Turd Disciples,
I'm noticing some interest recently in the comments re spot XAG trading through FX accounts. I trade XAG and XAU (gold) this way and have some experience. I will write and post the basics here on Monday if anyone is interested. I have found that there is very little info available on the Internet (particularly with respect to trading XAG or XAU in terms of currencies other than USD)
I notice a lot of concern about the IRA penalties. There are many exceptions. I just had two employees remove IRA money penalty-free as "hardship" exemptions. Apparently the definition of hardship is vague. Education and housing expenses also apply per my accountant. Do we believe that our tax rate will truly be lower than now? If not, why keep it in the IRA? Pay the tax now, get possession, avoid the penalty legally- before the rules are tightened again. Of course check with your accountant, not your broker.
ReplyDeleteTurd, the "Uprising" video no longer links...were you referring to the Muse song? (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8KQmps-Sog)
ReplyDeleteTurdle, I'd definitely be interested. Thanks!
ReplyDelete@ turdlegg
ReplyDeletePlease do, the profits afforded by the leverage will amount to even more physical stacking and we could make this baby takeoff exponentially if we all keep going after the physical with 20x (up to 50x if you're truely brave) "profits."
SoccerDad said...
ReplyDelete"Thanks Roger Knights, good article, hadn't heard the one about China monetizing silver. I wonder where he got that? Haven't heard it from the usual places anyway."
Me neither. That's why I think he might possibly have A Reason To Believe. (Of course, he may just have got wind of one of China's contingency plans, not a sure thing.) His general conservative tone and background tend to make me think he's not a sucker for rumors.
Not to thread jack the earlier post...but what if you just had $50k (no IRA) to invest...what would you do? All PM's? Some PM's and jr. miners? How much Gold and how much Silver? Any thoughts and advice would be appreciated. Thank you in advance C.
ReplyDeleteIs this Muse song for Blythe/JPM?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhAmug6Ts6o&feature=related
You predicted a bottom pretty damn close and definitely deserve credit for being the face of it. You were a step ahead of every other voice out there.
ReplyDeleteBut, just a technicality, I called the bottom only an hour or so after we actually hit it. See my post here: http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/sour-grapes.html
I have no life... I know :)
Referring to this statement:
ReplyDelete"Lastly, I gave my readers what is now referred to as "Turd's Bottom" when no one...and I mean no one...was willing to stick their neck out and take a stand."
THAT IS WRONG!!! Defintitely wrong.
Because at that time Hammy sticked his head out - and called the very opposite and the Turd a .... in my blog, what caused quite some heat.
I won't go into further details to not stir things up again. But fact is something else.
Further I came out with my bottom/reversal call in my blog and at ZH and the goldtent and at kitco (Hammy sticking his head out again) etc - 5 days later when gold hit a new low in the lower 132x - a day or two too early before we hit the final bottom in the high 130x.
So much for "no one" ... and just to stick to the facts. And no offence of course.
And not to provoke Mr. Hyde and some other Hammy haters again - Hammy immediately leaving again ... ;)
Silvergoldsilver has this on his site
ReplyDelete"Keep those tinfoil hats on, I will have more to come. I was at a private conference last night listening to a very important individual who is an expert on the middle east. I will relay some info from there, and why I think this will be a HUGE issue for us moving forward, and hugely beneficial for PM holders."
http://silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com/2011/02/paging-blythe-please-come-to-office.html#comments
@Turtledove, I can't argue against your decision as my inner self still tugs at me to follow your lead, made easier by establishing the 1/5th annual routine. From my research I'm pretty sure you can also take out the Cost Basis without any penalty at anytime. You still pay taxes on the basis for the traditional but not the Roth. I don't have a 401K, but tend to think they'd be easier to change the rule on in the future, especially with a stock market crash, my own opinion though. The unknown is scary, the government can change the rules, and usually does, at any time. The last three years have been extremely hard for me, ie. declining faith/trust in our political leaders, due to serving our country in the military for over 20yrs. Well, at least I'm outside the 'matrix' now. Vic, use your fear to be very proactive at researching those IRA options and rules, Idowanna has some potential alternatives above, if they apply. Diversification sits in the back of my head too, with all of the above in mind. Catherine Austin Fitts has some good stuff: This link might be helpful http://solari.com/blog/?p=2060
ReplyDeleteAg: The big yellow hat is a clue that the commentary is meant in fun. As turd is giving his viewpoint for free, not trying to drum up "customers."
ReplyDeleteAll others:
Let's not let this devolve the conversation.
If that link doesn't work, it's at Solari.com, search for 'Rethinking Diversification', great article.
ReplyDeleteAbout the anthem ... youtube says:
ReplyDelete"This video is no longer available due to a copyright claim by WMG."
Any alternate links?
Hey Christine,
ReplyDeleteHaven't heard from you lately. Glad you're back.
With 50k, and not much else going on, no sufficient retirement nest egg in sight, I guess I'd feel like I gotta take some chances if I want to actually improve the prospects for myself and my family in the long run.
I'm just going to toss a basic allocation out there as a discussion starter and would love to see what others think.
One Third physical metals. I'm talking the real deal, gold and/or silver, your choice. When times are tough, I'm telling you there is nothing like a handful of Double Eagles to help you get through to live to fight another day.
One Third producing gold and/or silver miners. We are in a bull market and you want things that most definitely will participate in the overall trend in the metals, with a bit of leverage to boot.
One Third Junior miners. This batch of lottery tickets is your aggressive, actively traded piece. Buy low, sell high. Fear? That's the other guys problem!
Vic - We have about 30% of our "money" in the form of an inherited IRA. A couple of things that haven't been said above. One, if you're trying to figure the IRA stuff out on your own without professional help, be sure to read:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p590.pdf
Two - one of the nice advantages to owning miners in an IRA is that you can trade in and out without short-term, long-term capital gain issues. You will only be taxed at your ordinary tax rate when you make a withdrawl from the IRA. As we are in a lower tax bracket than the short-term capital gains rate, this is a real advantage. At first I was hesitant to trade but now have learned, mostly through here, that there are certainly times to get out, ride the wave down and get back in later. In a straight trading non-IRA trading account that would cost dearly in short-term capital gains.
Good luck - PSLV and CEF seem like fine choices. Regarding timing, if I had $50k ready to go in an IRA and was going into PSLV and CEF, I'd do it first thing on Tuesday hoping to catch the up turn, but I'd keep a VERY close watch on the market. Be ready to trade back into cash on a decline, but also be in the game for a ride up next week if that comes. I'm just a rookie. Made lots of mistakes, but I've profited nicely just by being in the game over the last year. The last ride down was a beating. I won't make that mistake again.
Holy crap!
ReplyDeleteI could not believe it when I was trying to explain the COMEX situation to a group of forum participants online. I had to do a search on some things about it when I stumbled across Gramercy Images News and the page about Wynter Benton and the JP Morgan Silver Mystery Chronicles. I saw your name and googled through a couple of places before I found this web site. What really surprised me on that page is that you understand the silver story and even have some information regarding COMEX, the March 2011 delivery schedule (standing for delivery rather than rolling into the future), and so on.
How come I never heard of you guys in my 6 years of research?! I've studied the silver story via Ted Butler, GATA, Dan Norcini, Hugo Price Salinas, and several other people. I used to spend 40-50 hours a week in my free time just learning about silver in addition to geopolitics, the housing bubble/bust, sound money in general, etc. It sounds like Wynter has a group of people that I've heard about trying to break COMEX. I have been screaming for years that people need to stand for delivery on those COMEX contracts. Where the hell are they? Oh, there they are.
Nearly a year ago, I backed off on this research, as I felt I had gained enough of a foundation so that when I see something in the headlines from my contacts, I focus on that enough to help me make changes and moves to position myself out of the way of danger or take advantage of a deal. I never left it entirely. Lately, though, I have ramped up monitoring the silver story and the geopolitical situation a lot more closely. I still allow myself more time for myself than I have prior to last year. But OH, I watch this very closely!
To that end, I would like to say that if the COMEX take down fails, the next thing to do is find a way to clean out ALL 6,000 COIN SHOPS in the US. Make the demand felt up through the distributors, the brokers, bullion banks, through to the refiners. Get the refiners to have to pull the metal in order to make the planchets for the US Mint as well as the retail products. Yank the silver all the way from the COMEX down to the coin shops. MAKE THE STUFF DISAPPEAR!
I went to a coin shop today with my best friend who finally bought some physical. They had plenty of stock. I asked about supplies, but they said they have not had too much trouble. The proprietor had heard of this blog but never read it. Another customer asked why silver was going up. Nobody had a clue--just shook their heads. People in there selling their tubes of eagles, thinking we are in a bubble. Its hard to get people to see the truth.
ReplyDeleteAGoldhamster- nice call, i hope you keep posting here as you add a lot of value, and i'm sure most would agree, but why can't u just check ur ego at the door? we're just a bunch of anonymous dudes fighting Evil and/or looking to make a quick buck. no place for ego, i say.
ReplyDeleteSoccerDad
ReplyDeleteYes indeed a Roth has one very sweet advantage in that you can withdraw your basis at any time, penalty free.
Folks are asking "What the hell is Roth Basis?" "How do I know if I have any?"
Example:
A few years back you had an IRA that you converted to a Roth and paid the taxes on it at that time. The total balance was $30,000.
Then over the next few years you made another $20,000 of Roth contributions.
Guess what? You've got a total of $50,000 of "Roth Basis". Let's say in the meantime the whole account has been kind of up and down but currently is worth $57,000.
Now, you could go on trading in that account and enjoy tax free benefits for all your profits. Very attractive as opposed to paying capital gains taxes on stuff that you do outside the account.
Or, if you are getting a bit twitchy about some kind of government reneg on the whole deal, you could take a $50,000 distribution, no questions asked. No taxes, no penalties, no one cares about your age. Just leave the balance in there, or take that out too and pay a 10% penalty on the $7,000 piece only.
Trust me. I'm a CPA and I know this shit cold. It's how I make my bones.
Vic:
ReplyDeleteCEF is currently the largest holding in my IRA followed by SIVR. I have avoided PSLV so far because of the high premium. I just checked and CEF is currently 45.6% gold, 52.7% silver and 1.7% cash. I took a distribution from my 401K last year and have started withdrawing from my IRA this year. With silver appreciating at 80% per year, I can easily afford the 10% penalty and I should be in a better situation for the future.
Hey Turd are you still scheduled to appear on MSNBC in February? Are you going to give your loyal followers a clue before it happens?
ReplyDelete@Eric, Awesome summation. Now it makes sense, a CPA. Thanks for all your posts, great to have your presence/skills, to explain things more simply. I've read a lot o' shit on the internet about IRA's and that was the best, most simplistic explanation I've read, thank you!
ReplyDelete@FISD, Well put, my sentiments(at this time at least) exactly! That's why I've kept the IRA's up until now.
ReplyDeleteThanks Eric. Always appreciated.
ReplyDeleteI was talking to a local coin dealer who's premiums have gone up significantly in the last 3 months. Example being 100 oz Silver Bars ($1 to 1.90 over spot). He actually said his supplier told him premiums will be going down soon?? What gives?? Has anybody heard the same. I don't buy it....or see how that can happen. thoughts??
Read about Blythe Masters here (Feb 16th blog entry):
ReplyDeletehttp://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/
This woman has caused untold financial hardship and pain. Criminally insane ... a true psychopath. It should give pause to all who think that women (the "fairer sex") unequivocally are the saviors of humanity. Here is the "goddess" in kali-shiva garb. An incarnation of death and destruction, along with her counterpart, the sociopathic, antisocial slime Bernake.
I just hope these sickos get (in my lifetime) the karmic comeuppance they deserve.
Turdle wrote:
ReplyDelete"I trade XAG and XAU (gold) this way and have some experience. I will write and post the basics here on Monday if anyone is interested."
Yes please. I'm thinking of using 4x leverage to start (not 20x), so small mistakes don't wipe out my account.
TurdleGG, lookin' forward to that XAG post
ReplyDeleteEric, What about your cash position?
Hey SoccerDad
ReplyDeleteThanks back at ya. But just remember, in that example I'm talking about ROTH's ONLY. None of that applies to regular IRA's, 401(k)'s, or pension plans. That's probably where a lot of folks get confused.
The Roth has that one distinct little twist that I think gives it a distinct advantage.
In the spirit of full disclosure, Mrs. Eric and myself have gone heavily into Roth's. Both of us with job changes over the past 10 years or so where we took our 401(k)'s and pension balances and first rolled them over to a regular IRA, then took the plunge and converted those IRA's to Roths, being willing to pay those taxes up front, even though that took a bit of turning ourselves inside out for a while to finally get those taxes paid off. Those two Roths now form the bedrock of our assets. I trade stocks, bonds, metals ETF's, miners, whatever I want, with impunity, with no tax impact, no recordkeeping, no nothing. Plus I can get that original Roth Basis out whenever I want, which I have occassionaly done bit by bit when needing some cash.
If my tinfoil hat gets a bit itchy and I worry about the Gubmint getting their paws on my Roth, I figure step one will be to take a distribution of the rest of my basis. Step Two if my tinfoil hat starts on fire would be to just get the whole thing out of there, but I'm not anywhere near that state of paranoia. Yet....
Pick52 & Christine,
ReplyDeleteYeah after I typed that up, I realized I was thinking in terms of "50k allocated to metals", which maybe was not entirely what Christine had in mind. Yes indeedy you need to keep the overall picture in mind, your personal risk tolerances, etc.
I'm guessing even within that 50k metals allocation, there's going to be some trading going on, and you are going to want to have some cash balance available, just in case you hear some great tip on some weird blog and you want to take the plunge right quick. (Which I don't recommend. That's why we always are saying "Do your own Due Diligence' which is fancy talk for Hold Up, SLow Down,Study This Thing Inside and Out, and Make Your Own Decision.)
But still my basic premise I think still stands: If 50k is the whole wad, and you know sure as hell you'll never be able to retire on that, then yes I think you need to take some chances, take some risk, if you want to improve your position.
When it's all you've got there is a natural tendency to pull in your horns, take no risk, bail out too soon if there's a down day, etc. I've been there. I know the feeling. But if you take that approach then that 50k is all you are ever going to have. And that ain't going to cut it, especially with the buying power of each of those 50000 paper dollars falling every day.
Ginger
ReplyDeleteOK, I looked at Canadian Zinc. They sure as hell have a high grade resource there. And sure as hell somebody has lit a fire under the stock price over the last few months. But I just gotta walk away.
As soon as I saw the stuff about the Indian tribes I was done. That kind of stuff can tie you up in knots for decades at a time, which it looks like it already has, and probably will continue to do. Sorry, not for me.
Eric,
ReplyDeleteOk.. you're making me a bit SKEERED about my CZN. :] .....nah.. no pressure from me. You are in enough good stuff you aren't ever going to miss CZN!
I appreciate all your good tips. Still not sure whether I'll throw more at the miners next week or not. Truth be told...I probably should add to my physical instead. I get caught up in the miner excitement because you can SEE the changes in your account on a daily basis.. but I have to remind myself....nothing beats the physical!
@Eric, lol, thanks for the disclosure, the better half and I did/are doing pretty much the same thing, though I've still got one Roll over Traditional IRA I haven't converted to a Roth yet. One question though, isn't there a vesting period or such, that you have to wait a certain period after the conversion to withdraw any basis, or am I thinking of something else, no problem if it's not on the tip of your tongue, I'll look it up again.
ReplyDeleteBy the way in full disclosure I'm a career helo pilot, and mostly just a self taught investor, over the last 20 years, that's learned to use moving averages, bollinger bands, RSI, OnBalanceVolume, chart patterns and cycles to my advantage and I unfortunately tend to hold too long on to my losing stock picks hoping they'll turn around, oh well, I'm trying to do better. In other words, I probably just chose the right Bull Market to ride the trend in.
Great comments.
ReplyDeleteJust a thought...I think NOW would be a very good time to go back and watch this. It was thought-provoking back in December. In many ways, it seems prescient now:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gl47z2g2EvI&NR=1
JW said...
ReplyDelete...I didn't know that you could trade xag on the forex. I've played around with currencies...
sumo said...
...JW, I'm setting up an account at OANDA mainly to trade XAG...
Turdle GG said...
...I trade XAG and XAU (gold) this way and have some experience. I will write and post the basics here on Monday if anyone is interested...
Though I've been here awhile, you three have prompted my first post.
I've invested as much as I dare in physical and miners; being single and with no real estate, I'm also looking for a way to generate income that would allow me not only to generate $FRNs to invest in more physical but possibly also the means to earn income while travelling or even to have income so I could relocate somewhere warm and inexpensive outside USA. To this end, JW, I spent considerable time researching currency trading recently along with free trial of a trading room but likewise just couldn't get into it. But trading silver against Bernanke bucks very much appeals to me, not just for the same reasons I looked into currency trading, but because I felt like such a bystander Thursday not just missing any leveraged gains, but all the fun many here were having. ;-)
So Turdle, I'm very much looking forward to your post on Monday. I've got some swiss francs with James Turk's GoldMoney I was considering putting into more silver but I'd much rather have sufficient confidence to use it instead to fund a small trading account.
SoccerDad...BullionDirect is an approved IRA custodian and has self-directed IRAs. Check it out. It's on their home page.
ReplyDeleteThen, you might also want to watch part 2 again:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uPg4qTNTP-E&feature=related
Ok.. I am over at babypips.com going to School! I just wanted to come back over here and be sure to THANK the person last week who recommended babypips. That place is a hoot!.. It is actually making learning this stuff ..FUN! Who knew. ...I have put off learning this stuff because I was sure it would be as dry and boring as a heap of bones baking under a hot desert sun. It's not.. it's interesting! Whoever put this site together has a good sense of humor.
ReplyDeleteI'm sorry I don't remember the name of the person on Turd's blog here who recommended them but I can tell you that I am very cautiously optimistic about learning to trade the Forex. ..But I will be taking it slooow as I want to be successful at this.
So... again, thank you kind soul.. whoever you are/were.
BTW.. I nearly spit out my Burger King coke when I read this paragraph:
"We recommend that you have at least have $100,000 of trading capital before opening a standard account, $10,000 for a mini account, or $1,000 for a micro account. Of course, open an account only when you are consistently good.
So if you only have $60,000, open a mini account. If you only have $8,000, open a micro account. If you only have $250, open a demo account and stick with it until you come up with the additional $750, then open a micro account. If you have $1, find a job."
lol.
Also.. Turdle, count me in among those who are looking forward to your post! ...I agree with MHW93101 above ..looking forward to participating once I become more educated.
ReplyDeleteI put a link to the robot bears earlier today...glad the Turd agrees!
ReplyDeleteThey along w/ the Turd's vids are awesome!
SGS Robots Part 1
Here are Part 2, 3 and the bad voices of part 4, lol
SGS Robots Part 2
SGS Robots Part 3
SGS Robots Part 4
Oh SoccerDad, now you are getting into the nitty gritty details! OK, down the rabbit hole we go!
ReplyDeleteYou are thinking of the "5 Year Rule". And this is where it gets horribly confusing. I'll try to keep it simple as it relates to the example I outlined above.
Plus there are TWO aspects to the 5 year rule, let's call them Rule A and Rule B. If this stuff was easy, everybody would do it, and CPA's would be out of a job!
On that 20,000 of actual contributions that you made, neither of these rules applies, and yes you can take your Roth Basis back out again right away. I don't care if it's next year, next month, next week.
On the 30,000 of conversions you made, yes there is a complication and lets call it Rule A. Let's say you did that conversion sometime in the 2008 tax year. the official date for purposes of the rule is 1/1/08, and then you have to wait 5 years, to 1/1/13 before you can get that part of your Roth Basis back out without getting hit with a 10% penalty. Plus each conversion must pass the 5 Year Rule separately, so suppose you converted 12000 in 2007 and the other 18000 in 2008 so as to spread out your tax burden on the conversions. The magic dates where you can get your hands on that cash tax and penalty free would be 12000 as of 1/1/12, and 18000 as of 1/1/13. I keep a spreadsheet at home with all these amounts and dates on it, because this is precisely the kind of stuff I have going on personally.
But wait, maybe you are wondering "But how do I get my hands on that 7,000 of income and profits I've generated by my investing genius over the years? Isn't the whole point of the Roth supposed to be that when I retire I get the whole kaboodle tax and penalty free?"
Why, yes it is grasshopper.
So, we already know how to get our hands on the 20,000 of contributions. We already know how to get our hands on the 30,000 of conversions. In order to get our hands on the 7,000 of profits there are two basic rules to meet. #1 you need to be over the age of 59.5. And #2 you need to meet 5 Year Rule B! 5 Year Rule B states that you need to have had a Roth IRA, any Roth IRA, in existance for 5 years, dating back to 1/1 of the year you when you started it.
So suppose you first opened a Roth sometime in 2007, whether for the purposes of a contribution or a conversion. Starting from 1/1/07, 5 years gives a magic date of 1/1/12 when you meet the rule. Then all you need to wait for is the 59.5.
And is doesn't matter if you started your Roth at Green Acres State Bank, then moved it to Dewey, Cheatem, and Howe Financial Planners and then moved it again to eTrade (cuz you love those commercials with the talking babies), your magic date for meeting the rule remains 1/1/12.
Rule B is generally pretty easy to meet since most folks probably started their Roths in their 40's or very early 50's so it's long since been met by the time 59.5 rolls around.
Oh, and please please if you do any kind of Roth distributions, the 30k, the 20k, or the 7k, get some professional help with your tax return. There are some things you need to know about the forms to get it all to work out the way you want.
Whew! Well, you asked....
Turd and others,
ReplyDeleteTake note:
-----------------
McClure said ...
Hey Turd, for the fourth time, why do you think its JPM???
McClure said ...
Its funny because various posters have said there are tons of evidence about JPM, yet none are able to point at not even one piece of actual evidence other than some bullshit website. I read all the links provided and there is not one shred of evidence that JPM single handedly is doing anything (fyi, they are not). Just because some goldblug blog owner who fancies himself as a trader sees a large derivate position in level 3 assets of one particular bank does not make a silver manipulation case true. According to Gata they have come to the conclusion that its JPM because also they are trustees of the ETF scam funds and their level 3 assets can not be justified (ever heard of CDS?), so what? Then that other blogger claims that since he sent a letter to the CFTC claiming its JPM and CFTC is not replying to it then it must be JPM... huh? Do you really think the CFTC reads letters of some carpenter turned trader who slings a contract here and there and gets mauled in the process? Oh boy.
Im sorry to let you all know that it goes WAY deeper than pointing the finger at JPM. The real manipulators have fooled you all and want you to point the finger at the wrong party (JPM). You are playing right in their hands by screaming JPM! JPM!, and in the process your credibility gets shot. You will never find out who actually it is, but I can tell you the rabbit hole goes much deeper. How do I know? well...
This is my last post, good luck fellow metal hoarders/traders, we will need it.
------------------------------------
Did anybody ever check McClure's profile before he disabled it and before he disabled his blog? He is a former Bear Sterns trader that lost his job when Bear went tits up and JPM swallowed its silver short position. This guy knows what he is talking about.
His blog was here http://markettrance.blogspot.com/ but it is gone now probably because I started asking questions and because this left a trail of to him. Watch him delete all of his remaining comments on this blog. He answered my question about who is behind the silver manipulation game with "no comment".
The point is, he wants you to know this is not JPM or not just JPM and it is killing him that you do not know. My guess is that JPM is just a proxy to the silver shorts, and maybe all big banks coordinate their actions to suppress silver (and gold). He also wants you to know that this runs far deeper than JPM -- in other words the banks take care of the manipulation on behalf of other interests. This is the story, and he is saying GATA and Butler do not have the complete story. I guarantee you Butler does not, and as he mentioned he (and Turd) are playing into the hands of those that are behind silver and gold manipulation.
Sounds like a conspiracy, right? Well that is exactly what it is. Who has the answer? I am certain McClure (who has now disappeared) knows the answer.
Turd – this is not your area of expertise, but perhaps at least you need to acknowledge the possibility that Blythe and JPM have very little to do with this and that the matter of manipulation runs deeper as McClure has suggested.
I bet Bix Weir might have some information on this, but really only that cartel and certain government officials know the details of this stuff.
- Joe
Now, no more boring tax talk! I get enough of that at the office. I gotta get back to researching some more of Ginger's hot stock picks!
ReplyDeleteLOL word verification. "midul"
ReplyDeleteAfter thinking through and typing up all that Roth garbage I need a midul!
Joe: I've been thinking about "McClure" today, too. Something about him seemed too legit to simply dismiss out of hand.
ReplyDeleteThe most simple conclusion I can come back to is that which I've claimed all along: JPM isn't a single actor. At the behest of The Fed, they suppress the PMs. The Fed is their master.
Do you think that might be what he was getting at?
I covered this in detail in video #2, "Blythe Explains Her Motives". A link is posted above in the text of this thread.
ReplyDeleteMcClure also said in his last blog post that he thinks this WB story is a big setup to trap bulls. It definitely could be. Have you ever heard of so much excitement among gold and silver bugs? I am skeptical on both sides. That WB publicly, albeit anonymously taunted Blythe for months and announced his/her intent is very odd. Isn't this securities fraud? Can't the FBI track down message board posters? Perhaps not if done from a public computer. Anyway, if WB is for real and this is not a bull trap, then their hedge fund is pretty ballsy.
ReplyDeleteEverybody be very careful trading next week. Anything can happen. One other thing to note is WB's farewell message. In it, he/she mentions to have an exit plan, to expect volatility to the downside, and watch where you put your stops because the group might switch their positions to drive the price down. Maybe they are setting up longs to lower their stops to weather the storm. The storm could be all the way down to 25 in a flash crash. Do not get overconfident.
My suggestion is to just watch what happens unless you don't mind rolling the dice.
Even if McClure deleted his blog, you should be able to see the old pages in the wayback machine.
ReplyDeleteEric,
ReplyDeleteOne very important word for you: SILVERMEX
:) lol.
Nothing on the wayback machine, guess it wasn't around that long...
ReplyDelete@Joe -
ReplyDeleteIve always seen JPM and dear sweet Blythe as proxies for a larger cesspool. I certainly would never deign to speak for Herr Turd, but reading McClure's interactions here, I thought he was interpreting Turd and others' characterizations of JPM far too literally. Remember, Turds know cesspools...
If you haven't checked Trader Dan yet today, you really should. Start with the clarification on the silver margin increase and scroll down. Lots of great stuff!
ReplyDeletehttp://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/
Joe Jost,
ReplyDeleteLet them bring on the price drops. Please, PLEASE drive it down to $18-23. I'll buy in at least one more time before it takes off.
SE
Turd Ferguson said...
ReplyDeleteJoe: I've been thinking about "McClure" today, too. Something about him seemed too legit to simply dismiss out of hand.
The most simple conclusion I can come back to is that which I've claimed all along: JPM isn't a single actor. At the behest of The Fed, they suppress the PMs. The Fed is their master.
Do you think that might be what he was getting at?
--------
Possibly. And probably involves England and Europe as well. BTW, I am not McClure and I am as curios as everybody else. I have read G. Edward Griffin's book and maybe I should reread it. The answer or clues are probably there.
You know there is a lot to this story besides the price of silver and gold. For example, have you ever noticed Dodd and Frank always side with the banks and they even make statements to manipulate the market. Frank did this when shorts were piling on banks in 2008. He said something to the effect that he was sure his committee would re-invoke some suspension rule to disallow naked shorting financial companies, and a day later there was a massive short squeeze.
Anyway, I think this runs far deeper than the Fed. It could be most central banks, the IMF, etc. The central banks and most governments need the masses to use fiat currency to maintain power over the masses.
The McClure thing.. ..I agree with Turd. That whole thing earlier today kind of sent a chill up my spine when I read it. Something about what he had to say seemed authentic. It was a little unnerving I thought.
ReplyDeleteI wish that he would just put it out there. If he knows who is behind the manipulation.. just say it. Why bother to get people to realize we are on the wrong path if you're not going to set people on the right path? ....That's why the whole thing was scary, frankly. It's like he wanted to tell us.. but couldn't for some reason. Danger to himself??
I read too many suspense novels. "/
Goldhamster: were not you junking Turd a few weeks ago when everybody was telling people to sell, take profit and run?...I remember you Goldhamster along with other folks (MetalKing, SlumDog, etc...at Kitco...RoboTrader, RedRepublican and others at ZH) were very bearish and laughing on Turd's simple basic opinions on fundamentals, specially the dollar chart and the JPM and comex manipulation...and now you come here saying that you called for a botton prior or at the same time to Turd?...I think at this point you should show some respect (for your own good)not only to Professor Turd but to the inteligent people here who believed and was holding tight when Gold and silver were falling hard....please, dont post here any more. I apologize to Turd and the people who has been loyal here if I said something wrong, but I can't take Goldhamster provocations anymore.
ReplyDelete@Letey Petey
ReplyDeleteRight. I agree with that, and using Blythe as a placeholder for the EE is very tangible.
> Remember, Turds know cesspools...
Very funny.
The funniest thing dialog I heard in reply to something Turd said on ZH was something like this:
Shit Turd, don't get soft on us now.
That was a while ago before Turd created his blog, but at the time he was already becoming legend for his mostly pinpoint accurate calls.
Found this blog post from Gonzalo Lira quite impressive in regards to hyper inflation and what to expect.
ReplyDeletehttp://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2010/08/hyperinflation-part-ii-what-it-will.html
He talks about Chile and what might be in store for us.
Then if you still have the attention span check out this article by him:
http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2011/02/ballsy-or-crazy-where-are-we-on.html
He states the following predictions:
• By March of 2011, once higher commodity prices reach the marketplace, monthly CPI will be at an annualized rate of not less than 5%.
• By July of 2011, annualized CPI will be no less than 8% annualized.
• By October of 2011, annualized CPI will have crossed 10%.
• By March of 2012, annualized CPI will cross the hyperinflationary tipping point of 15%.
After that, CPI will rapidly increase, much like it did in 1980.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mXYubpOQzRs
ReplyDeleteNotice The Turd walking on 1:00 walking out to fight the EE....time has arrive for us now.
@Campagnolo
ReplyDelete+10
AGH -- get lost. You never apologized to Turd after you smeared him on your blog. You have your own blog at http://marketcyclesresearch.blogspot.com/ -- stay there. Oh wait, you shut your blog down. I wonder why?
Yep, it's all a big bull trap for silver ( and gold I presume ). I have to hand it to the "trappers", I would not have thought they could pull all this together:
ReplyDelete- 93% value loss for dollar since 1913
- having all commodities soar simultaneously; cotton, sugar, soy, corn, etc.
- trillion plus dollar deficits yearly as far as the eye can see
- food inflation causing world-wide riots
- unfunded liabilities in the trillions; derivative losses in the quadrillions looming
- Fed and all central banks printing trillions so as to extend and pretend; all fiats being debased in a race to the bottom
- weekly POMO billions to prop up stocks
- etc etc etc
All this just to suck in us stupid PM buyers. Boy do I feel like a sap.
Turdle GG,
ReplyDeleteI'm trying my hand at XAG spot forex trading. I'd be very interested in anything you write up on Monday. I'm currently trading XAG/USD and my account has gone up considerably since following Turd's advice and reading other PM blogs.
Thanks.
Jason
Ginger
ReplyDeleteCamino Minerals and Silvermex
I like them both. I like them A LOT. My only issue is for what appears to be roughly equal prospects, one of them has a $195 million marketcap (Silvermex), while the other is more like $33 million (Camino).
Unless someone can tell me why Silvermex is six times better than Camino, I'm going to look seriously at picking up a little Camino and pass on the Silvermex.
Ginger,
ReplyDeleteI think there were two of us that recommended babypips.com. I stumbled upon it a few years ago and thought it was very good. As you said, they try to make the material interesting. I don't know if they still do it, but they used to have 4-5 people post daily or weekly commentary about their trades...ie. if they went long/short, target profit, stoploss, etc. and then see the reults. You could try to trade along with them if you dared.
thecoloredsky:
ReplyDeleteFYI, Lira's inflation predictions are already looking good for those who know not to pay any attention to the government's nonsense statistics.
John Williams' Shadow Government Statistics is already showing 5% inflation here.
At this page at MIT's The Billion Prices Project, if you select country (USA) and click 'Show', the bottom chart on the page shows a very significant increase this year to a current rate of about.75% per month.
Sorry to babble on, but the suppression of gold and silver might indeed be coordinated among China, US, England, and Europe. They all share mutual interests.
ReplyDeleteConsider this. If you are the USA, you want to keep the dollar intact as the world reserve currency because it allows you to purchase stuff for monopoly money. It is like having a genie and infinite wishes. If you are China, you don't want the dollar or the Euro to be destroyed before you are hedged sufficiently with resources. Also, if you are China and you try to buy all of the silver that you want, then you drive the price over 1000. If you are Europe, you just want to maintain the status quo and get energy from Russia. Etc., etc.
So what should these countries do? The should make deals and work together because then they all win. They would rather all win and all maintain power over the masses than all lose their power.
Maybe China wants to accumulate say 3 billion ounces of silver. It might take ten years to do that -- I am just making this up as I go. At an average of 50 per ounce, that would cost 3B * 50 = 150B. Don't you think China would toss 20B at the market to keep the average at 40 per ounce? Then they would save 10B. Or consider a more compelling example where if China was not helping to suppress the price of silver then the average would shoot to 100 per ounce.
Remember the premise is that China wants some stuff in trade for all of their hard work and worthless US dollars, and the USA and Europe want to keep the status quo and current world order (good luck with that).
So I don't think this is all that hard to understand who and what is behind g/s price suppression. The governments and banks in the world want to keep what they got and they don't want the masses to gain liberty. The way to achieve that is to loan them fiat trash and enslave them as debtors. It works like a charm or at least has up to now because the sheep in developed countries have been manipulated to depend on the banks and government for just about everything -- college, cars, homes, healthcare, cheap energy, etc -- all ultimately subsidized by the dwindling middle class.
This is not the way the founders of the USA wanted things to turn out. We have traded nearly all of the liberty intended in the Constitution for fiat currency and dependence upon the banks and government.
Anyway, sorry to hijack this thread Turd but I just wanted to be sure that McClure's point was not overlooked.
@Pat
ReplyDeleteMy caution is for the very short term and with respect to leverage. I bought lots of physical two weeks ago and have for many years, so I am not a bear and I am not suggesting you are a sap for buying gold and silver.
I mentioned Marco G. (at Seeking Alpha) earlier today. Just received a new email from him -- you can get on his email list by contacting him through S.A -- and it sounds very good for our favorite investments. Here is his message in toto:
ReplyDeleteSino Silver & Gold Sales Soar
February 19th, 2011
By: Marco G.
Silver sales in China for the Industrial and Construction Bank of China, apparently accelerated 600% for
January, 2010. This author is always watching for world news that may affect my investment portfolio. The
author spotted this on February 19, 2011, Robert Lenzner's blog on Forbes reports:
"In January alone ICBC sold 7 tons of gold– almost half the 15 tons it sold in all of 2010. It also
sold 13 tons of silver in January– almost half the 33 tons of silver it sold to clients during the past
year."
The author was aware that ICBC, China’s Industrial and Construction Bank, the world’s largest bank was a
pace setter in China with innovative new sales of Silver certificates for their customers, last fall. However,
what marketing have they performed to accelerate their sales like this, selling 6 months worth of the precious
metals (relative to 2010) in just one month in January. Now given that January was the precursor to the
beginning of the new lunar year of the Golden Bunny, some of the sales may have been related to the new
year celebrations and the visits to their home towns.
Gold, not to be outdone, is also doing well in China sales. The World Gold Council (WGC) reported on
January 17th, 2011 that Gold sales were up 113% in China:
" According to the report, gold investment in China more than doubled year-on-year to 17 billion
yuan ($2.58 billion) in the last quarter of 2010. The gold investment for the full year totaled 48
billion yuan, up 113 percent year-on-year."
The article goes on to explain that the demand drivers included the following:
inflation pressures, China's consumer price index was 4.6; inflation hedge in Gold.
government policies to rein in the zooming property markets; Gold is an alternative to property.
Shanghai Composite Index dropped 14%; Gold is an alternative to stocks.
As there were few other investment choices for the masses, Gold and Silver are fast becoming a popular
vehicle for investment in China. The two Asian giant nations of India and China now form 51% of the world
demand for Gold as investment and jewelry in 2010.
Silver is experiencing tightness in the American physical markets as the COMEX silver stocks fall to a four
year low. Reuters reports that the US Silver Futures market is now in backwardation this week, as the near-
term prices are more distant than the months further out:
"The stocks are being pulled for all the high grade and better materials, and that essentially put a
squeeze on the physical market," he said.
Perez-Santalla said that silver futures have not been in backwardation since billionaire Warren
Buffett bought 130 million ounces of silver between 1997 and 1998."
Tightness in physical supply market for Silver, has come from the following sources:
booming industrial demand.
record silver coin sales.
mining companies borrowing Silver for hedging purposes.
Almost un-noticed by the public Silver has quietly set a new 31 year high of $32.66 on Friday February 18,
2011.
The author is positioned for the precious metals rise in Gold with Great Basin Gold (GBG) and in Silver with
Silvermex (GGCRF, TSX:SLX).
Some of the books I've read in the last year r so that have really kicked ass, in case anyone's looking for some good stuff:
ReplyDeleteThe 5000 Year Leap
The Creature From Jekyll Island
End The Fed
Naked Capitalism
Tragedy and Hope
Naked Communism
Broke
Capitalism and Freedom
Liberty and Tyranny
The Road to Serfdom
Mises: The Theory of Money and Credit
Freakonomics and Super Freakonomics
Liberal Fascism
Common Sense
The Grand Jihad
The American Patriots Almanac (daily)
A Patriot's History of America
Arguing w/ Idiots (yes, I'm a Beck fan)
Pick 'em up if you can...I get them all off Amazon for whatever deals I can find. Great stuff...eye openners...especially The Creature and Tragedy and Hope. It's all just a big fucking bankster ponzi scam, to describe it in the most simplistic form. Evil!
Here are old posts from McClure
ReplyDeletehttp://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:SEn0QMCro2YJ:markettrance.blogspot.com/+markettrance.blogspot.com&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&client=firefox-a&source=www.google.com
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:SEn0QMCro2YJ:markettrance.blogspot.com/+markettrance.blogspot.com&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&client=firefox-a&source=www.google.com
apparently he has only few posts in this blog.
Turd Ferguson said...
ReplyDeleteIf you haven't checked Trader Dan yet today, you really should. Start with the clarification on the silver margin increase and scroll down. Lots of great stuff!
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/
----------------------------------
I read it, and the long writeup about analysts vs traders is a pearl.
Ok Turd, what is your call? Will you be long silver next week? I am considering going long and weathering any storms. Actually I am already long call options on silver futures, and hedged with puts. I was long for 1.50 over several futures contracts last week, so I already made a mint, but I would love to hit the jackpot of 5-10 over several contracts. It takes courage and commitment to stay in longer than a day trade or scalp.
Daniel
ReplyDeleteWas that you that posted a list of junior miners earlier today? i just went through your list and Rye Patch really caught my eye. Gonna look at that one some more.
@Joe Jost and anyone else interested in McClure:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.google.com/#q=%22markettrance.blogspot.com%22+%22markets+in+action%22&hl=en&prmd=ivns&filter=0&bav=on.1,or.&fp=681127d0c6f645aa
The cached posts are still there. Not too numerous, and certainly not necessarily indicative of decades of first-hand high-level expertise in the markets. Which is not to say he does not have a point - JPM is a manifestation and tool/mechanism, not necessarily the underlying cause of market manipulation. I just don't see how that contradicts what Turd has been saying all along.
On another note, I really liked Jesse's latest Silver graph, and the comment:
"Depending on the likelyhood of a liquidity collapse a triple digit price no longer seems out of reach."
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/
Anyone who hasn't listening to Dan Norcini on KWN this weekend should do it immediately if not sooner. Anyone who has should listen to it again at least 3 times total and really digest what he's saying. Listen closely to the part about the probable bleeding short and how they're trying desperately to get out. Next week will tell.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/2/19_KWN_Weekly_Metals_Wrap.html
Ginger and Daniel
ReplyDeleteSo here I sit with two more little miners I'd like to buy, Camino and Rye Patch, but the problem is I'm pretty much full up now both in terms of total $$ allocated to miners, and in the number of names I want to be involved in. I'm pretty much in the position where I gotta sell something in order ot buy something. Basically my piggy bank is my SLW shares. I'm way overweight that one, but hey it's kickin ass so there's a limit to how much of it I want to part with in order to buy lottery tickets.
Oh well. Maybe I can't own 'em all :(
Don't get all cocky now, Turd.
ReplyDeleteWe need you mean and hungry to help make us all rich - so we can become the barons in the coming new world order... err... special drawing rights order.
Good job, dude.
@Eric, Thanks for your info/effort, concur, no more tax talk!
ReplyDeleteThis is fun:
ReplyDeletehttp://news.coinupdate.com/asian-buyers-redeeming-physical-silver-from-slv-exchange-traded-fund-0685/
said: Confucius say...man with hand in pocket feel cocky, not Turd.
flaunt: will be sure to listen tomorrow
Joe: I am long. Even stayed long some MARCH $33 calls through the weekend. DEFINITELY violates a few cardinal trading rules but after the Globex action on Friday, I thought it worth the risk. What I really want to buy are some way-out-of-the-money May calls and see if I can hit the jackpot.
Himalayas: Good day to you at The Rooftop of The World!
Turd nite nite now.
Confucius also say...man who go to bed with itchy bottom wake up with stinky finger.
@JoeJost: I'm glad you've brought up WB as I don't think "she" (obviously a dude) has gotten her due attention here. I allowed that the Feb 8 prediction was a coincidence (though a pretty amazing one). The "supernova within 5 days" though (which fell exactly on the 4th and 5th days) (at a time when many experts (e.g. Dan Norcini) were saying the markets appeared uncertain) should convince everyone here that this isn't some dude in his mother's basement. Also, throw in how they called for the moves to 25 and 30 back in the fall ... it's all on the message boards for anyone who cares ... and I think a retrospective close reading of all 200+ posts is certainly warranted by anyone serious about PMs. I guess many feel it's beneath them, though they'll spend hours poring over charts for far more ambiguous clues about where this market is headed.
ReplyDeleteI went through all the posts last night, including those by samstern666, samsterns2006, bryce_halsey and thuan_li (obvious affiliates to WB), and the whole thing is really fishy ... like when wynter is called out as Bill Winters in one of the last threads -- by "bryce_halsey" who posted as/for wynter back in October (complete with the creepy "do-da" epilogue). Weird shit like that. I simply don't have the expertise to draw any conclusions. I wish someone with expertise would chime in, though.
Some evidence that the WB posts are from China: the group isn't afraid of securities fraud, their posts are often posted in middle of the night, their english is (on occasion) suspect, they supposedly "tipped off" Blythe re: the Chinese interest hikes before bidding into her shorts, and finally, I get something of an Asian personality vibe from the posts (e.g. "the Leader"). If McClure is right that Blythe is being made the fall guy by more sinister powers, the WB posts could be taken as evidence (e.g. the repeated mantra "learn to HATE JPM because JPM HATES YOU).
@CD
ReplyDeleteThanks for the cached pages. I also used that to find his cached profile (I have way too much spare time on my hands):
"Former Bear Stearns Trader who has been trading for himself since the JPM merger. Active in the gold and silver futures arena."
What intrigues me about McClure is that he is a former Bear Sterns trader, and JPM allegedly or in fact absolutely did take over Bear's silver short position. But McClure is saying it is not JPM. Surely, since JPM took over the massive short position, then they have something to do with silver manipulation, but McClure says that JPM is not *behind* it.
Anyway, I am not trying to cause trouble here but I wish McClure would tell us what he knows. What harm could it do? Is it a matter of national security? Perhaps so.
Thanks Turd, You and your family are most welcome to visit us anytime, I can assure you that Nepal is a beautiful country and I will be at your service.
ReplyDeleteTurd, interesting about the Chinese using SLV to get physical. If it's true, then that could be another source of demand for investment bars if indeed Blackrock doesn't have all the silver claimed and is scrambling to find metal for delivery. However, I don't necessarily agree that a panic to get out of the fund would ensue if 10%-20% of shares were redeemed for physical. Any selling ought to at least by offset by the Chinese buying up shares for conversion and could even have SLV trading closer to spot price than normal. Additionally, as Gene has said, if spot prices go up and SLV can't create new shares because there is such high demand for investment-grade bars, then SLV could actually trade at a large premium to NAV like the closed-end silver funds.
ReplyDeleteIt's kind of amusing to see people criticize SLV when there are outflows in the face of rising prices (which just means shares are being retired for physical silver), and more criticism when there is no change in inventory ("silver prices are going up yet this fraud hasn't added any silver???"), and utter stupification when they add a large amount of silver ("yeah right, like they just magically found 3M ounces").
As always, I understand people are extremely biased against anything JPM-related, and I think it's reasonable to be skeptical about SLV, AND I would never advocate holding SLV as one's primary exposure to silver, but also completely blinding oneself to a potential trading opportunity is not wise.
I didn't see the posts by that McClure fellow, but I have always felt this was all about more than some greedy bankers and am surprised by some of the comments actually. Joe Jost is accurate in his last comment.
ReplyDeleteI have always seen the banks, FED and government as the same entity. You seldom see any of them ever going to jail after all. And when they do it is usually because one stole from the other somehow. These are the kind of folks that aren't hurt that much by inflation and hyperinflation, except it leads to them losing control. You need control for a centrally planned society right?
How deep does the rabbit hole go? I don't know. I just know that when you cannot do anything without having to pay a tax to someone you are not truly a Free man.
As far as what happens next week, I wish all of the traders luck at what they do. I will be holding on to my physical stash for the time being as I am certain many others will be doing the same. The fundamentals are the same. There is no inflation here, these are not the droids you are looking for. (sarcasm)
As far as a trap being laid, isn't it all one big trap? The stock market... Rigged to make folks invest. Then they pull the rug out from underneath, take your money and make you more dependent on the government. All the while they are buying up hard assets at cheap prices because people are forced to sell since they lost half their money in the stock market. My favorite is how the governments passes laws or regulations that make it hard for banks to make a profit. This kills small and medium banks so they can be bought by bigger banks that sit up higher in the food chain.
Its not all gloom and doom though. Just don't let chasing money be what defines you and find happiness and freedom where you can.
For those of you worried about this being some sort of setup, you do realize you're talking about conspiracy on the FOURTH LEVEL??
ReplyDelete1st level: Mainstream knowledge;
2nd level: PM manipulation scheme;
3rd level: WB scheme;
4th level: Mask comes off and JPM/FedRes is in fact WB!
.....
5th level: Mask comes off of Turd who is in fact BM all along!!
That is some SERIOUS paranoia, even for a PM bug. So few people actually make it to the 3rd level of reality that I doubt it would be worth the effort to dupe small investors into complacency only to crush them w/ a flash crash the following wk. Also, keep in mind a similar event occurred back in Nov10, so whoever is supposedly setting us up, would have had to create that event in anticipation of creating an even bigger trap in Feb11.
I'm no expert myself, but if price tanks next wk, well good job banksters... you got me. Pretty elaborate scheme just for my measly dollar. The fundamentals are strong, the numbers look favorable, the wind is at our backs, and the enemy is looking weak. Seems wrong to second guess everything as the moment of truth draws near even though it is in our very nature to second guess everything. Sure, even w/ all that said, I've got my stops placed as well..
@Grundlemaster
ReplyDeleteGreat info. I had not seen the posts by bryce_halsey and thuan_li, and I also had not considered that WB group may be from China. As you stated, that might explain why they are so bold and not too concerned about securities fraud.
The whole story and spike in silver is very, very interesting and could be made into a book or movie. If this is real, then this is the first look into the battle taking place in gold price manipulation. Whatever gold gains, the dollar loses its legitimacy as the reserve currency. Ultimately, if the US does not have as much gold as it claims on record, then it potentially loses its global supremacy once the dollar loses its reserve status.
I must have missed something this McClure character said, since I didn't see anything earth-shattering in any of his posts. Maybe it was in the one he deleted. Anyway, is it at all possible that someone, somewhere out there has the incentive to spread FUD about the silver market?
ReplyDeleteThink about this "trap" theory. If you were extremely underwater on your short positions would you intentionally drive up the price thus putting your position even more underwater, violating key technical levels like they weren't even there, and basically "chumming the water" to attract some of the biggest sharks in the business of sniffing out blood?
Now if you were a short and had unlimited funds, and you had already demoralized the bulls and were close to key technical levels on the downside, why wouldn't you unleash another firestorm and watch positions get blown out all the way down to $20? In fact, why would you care about paper losses at all?
To me it just doesn't pass the smell test. And as far as WB and what they said about volatility, we may have seen some of that on Friday. You know, where it ran all the way up to $33 and then pulled back before slowly climbing again into the close? Smells exactly like someone taking out some weak hands for profit.
But what the hell do I know, anything is possible.
Very good points Grundlemaster.
ReplyDeleteAnother thing -- If someone is trying to get their hands on physical by "setting a trap," then they're stupid. You don't free up physical by depressing the price, you free it up by increasing the price. Any price suppression puts even more metal in strong hands, so it makes no sense whatsoever.
ReplyDeleteHey flaunt,
ReplyDeleteI like your comments btw!
If they keep price low doesn't that make them have a low profile in most folks eyes? Smart money may go into them but everyone else will keep chasing apple and Netflix.
@flaut
ReplyDeleteI have seen it time and time again. When have you seen a banker get squeezed? On the other hand, how many times have you seen longs get washed out? The commercials gather as many mice as they can, and then they drop the hammer. There are still other possibilities that people are not talking about for example a force majeure and mandatory cash settlement at a set price. Have you noticed the record level open interest? Maybe the cartel has created this entire thing to clear the short position via a force majeure. Yeah, I am very paranoid because money is involved.
No disrespect to Jim Sinclaire, but he was dogmatic in his prediction of 1650 by Jan and that hurt a lot of traders that felt his legendary ability to make calls with precision provided a sure thing. Now look how many analysts are calling for 35-40 silver in the near term. Nobody knows the future and anything can happen, so it is good to look at this from all angles. If it does not feel right then you might want to sit this trade out.
I'll give everybody another reason to be cautious -- have you seen the price of silver? It is near 30 year highs. Sure it will probably go higher, but you would have been much better off buying at 2650 a couple of weeks ago (which I did) than next week at 33. Buying high is not a good strategy for accumulating wealth. I'm not saying you should not add physical silver and gold to your portfolio if you are underweight physical. I am saying be careful how much you risk and how much leverage you use because silver can move fast.
I'll offer one more compelling reason for caution -- the broad stock market looks very toppy. If it corrects it might change the mood of silver rapidly. (relevant analysis from Franklin Sanders: http://silver-and-gold-prices.goldprice.org/)
However, I am inclined to side with your gut feeling.
If crude would dip back down to 87 I would buy that instead of chase silver. I am more inclined now to stay long crude and gold. Turd is calling for 1600 gold, and that is plenty good for me.
Great discussion and I learned a lot of new ideas and info.
Good night.
Aquireing silver could actually be a reason for letting the price rise next week. I know it sounds a little crazy , but they'er under the gun to aquire silver quickly and its cheaper than paying the premiums on cash settlements . So I wouldnt be so surprised if they stand down
ReplyDeletenext week to some extent. It also helps to dispell the myth of the EE too.
Yeah I imagine it would be to "their" advantage if they could keep a lid on prices, but they utterly failed to do that after making repeated and obvious attempts in the $26-$27 range as you can see in this chart:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p61572954199
@Joe - I know what you're saying and I'm quite sure that does happen. They are always looking to pick off the little guy and take his money. However, at this point in time nothing is pointing toward lots of small spec involvement. Not the COT reports and not even the physical markets. In fact Bill Haynes at CMI said that lots of small guys were SELLING their silver all week last week up until Friday when it turned 3-to-1 buyers to sellers!
ReplyDeleteOf course, nobody knows whether or how they'll change the rules midstream to screw over market participants but that's part of the game. Make it another factor in your analysis rather than a source of paralyzing fear.
When you say silver is at 30 year highs you're thinking in terms of constant-value fiat. 30 USD 30 years ago is like 80+ USD today. So no, we're nowhere near 30 year highs in real terms.
I agree, but What other options do they have? They're in a hell of spot. They lost this month, no two ways around it ,They know it and they need to lick thier wounds regroup and start planning thier next move .No sense throwing good money after bad. I think the idea there is damage control now.
ReplyDeletejust my opinon.
They can only stray just so far from a reality they can defend before a competing new exchange is created by a competing nation.
ReplyDeleteOn a separate subject I'm reading a book on the world banking environment during the depression. It has some excellent accounts of Keynes. What struck me the most about him is not so much his brilliance, but rather the circumstances of the time and those that administered the German reparations.
From my perspective, John would appear brilliant principally as he was surrounded by power hungry baboons. John was also in the unique position in which he stood to benefit from attacking the capabilities of others without having to risk his own reputation on the practicalities of producing economic architecture that actually stood the test reality.
He really should have known better, as the first bank to break from the gold standard, The Reichsbank was in his time and the most monumental inflationary disaster. To design a system that was constrained by nothing more than the will of man, under the control of the state appears to be complete folly. All he had to do was to look at Germany.
Interestingly the head of the Reichsbank of the time knew what he was doing but knew that stopping would cause a revolution, so continued printing in the hope that 'something would happen'. The parallels were too obvious to ignore.
@Flaunt
ReplyDelete"Additionally, as Gene has said, if spot prices go up and SLV can't create new shares because there is such high demand for investment-grade bars, then SLV could actually trade at a large premium to NAV like the closed-end silver funds.
Mate, I like you. But this one puts a been in my bonnet. Look over Harvey's numbers for the past week. Twice in the past week SLV, from 'somewhere' added 700-800k oz. Boom. From thin air.
Then look over SilverGoldSilver's latest interview, where there is a suggestion that SLV physical was tiny.
I call shenanigans.
I would assume they DO have some silver, but would believe that they only have a portion of what they claim. If that belief is grounded, then it'll be a matter of musical chairs, and the Chinese are already sitting down. Someone is about to get burnt.
This will be FUN!
The recent former chairman of COMEX, Brian Wills, claims there will be no shortage come settlement day, in five comments on a Seeking Alpha article here:
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/253746-silver-breakout-has-serious-fundamental-legs?source=aal_1
Eric,
ReplyDeleteYes, 'twas I who posted the earlier list of juniors. You are like me: you want all the goodies, but there's only so much room in your basket. I have a virtual mutual fund of juniors and leaps on those bigger guys with options. (Yeah, I know, I know.) I'm not a big player, a thousand here on ICMTF, another thousand on STHJF (uranium). Between Camino and Rye Patch, I don't know. I do know that Rye Patch was on a "tear;" then at .49, it collapsed 18% in one day. Would've bought more, but didn't have the money at the time. Smelled like profit-taking or some opportunity for some people to get more. SNDXF is the biggest holding of Stock Gumshoe's. He's an interesting guy, goes out and decodes all those come-ons for "Buy my newsletter for $300 a year and I'll tell you the name of the little company that will cure cancer AND make you irresistible to SI swimsuit models." At one point recently, Bob Moriarity, the owner of 321gold -- check out the YouTube of him flying his plane under the Eiffel Tower -- said his biggest holding was in Euromax. So what can a guy/gal do? I sold some small stuff in the last few days that didn't seem to be doing much and bought a few more out-of-the-money SLW 2012 leaps, a few more PBR leaps -- my bet has been that energy is going to cost us more and soon, also have leaps in CHK and ECA. (Solar stocks have taken a huge beating in the last couple of years and I'd do the same with them -- hey, they're coming out of a base -- but no tengo mas dinero.) Oh, have people here mentioned that Jim Sinclair traded in about $165K of his TRE stock and then turned around the same day and plowed $65K of it back into July 9 calls for TRE? (I hope I'm reading that right. Link is here:
http://www.canadianinsider.com/coReport/allTransactions.php?ticker=tnx
Please tell me if I'm way off.)
So I'll shut up now. Probably best just to listen to Turd. He knows a lot more than we do. Ah, but wouldn't it be great to be the one who discovered that little pointed gem sticking out of the ground that turned out to be an iceberg?
Re SLV, SGS posted this
ReplyDelete"and biggest JOKE of the day goes to....SLV! Who thinks they found 3,466,666 oz OVERNIGHT to replenish 'physical' supplies, LOL, this is going to be EPIC"
http://silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com/2011/02/paging-blythe-please-come-to-office.html
Daniel
ReplyDeleteI'm with you on the energy thing. Personally I think it's a huge driver of everything that's happened in the last 4 years. My implementation on the investment side took a different tack though. When horizontal drilling/fracing finally unlocked all that nat gas I figured there's going to be a glut of that for a while, and resulting low prices, so I unloaded all my gassy ones and stuck to just the oily ones. Oil sands in particular. I have SU, CNQ, CVE, and COSWF. I like OXY, NXY, and PWE too, but no room for them right now.
I had PBR for a while too but it became clear to me that the Brazilian gov't was just going keep taking a bigger and bigger piece of the pie, and the big payoff from those subsalt discoveries might never really come.
Truth be told, I have more $$ in those four oil stocks than in some 15 odd miners combined.
Great, great stuff here. All comments are reasoned and intelligent.
ReplyDeleteI particularly like the comment above from Jimmy about everything being rigged. Syk had a classic, too.
@Joe Jost... force majeure does not cover failures resulting from a party's financial condition or negligence... I seriously doubt this would come into play, for it would fail in a court of law.
ReplyDeleteI'm wondering though if the WB group or BOS could be derailed by a sudden implementation of position limits.
This week we need to remember,
ReplyDeleteNothing great was ever achieved by someone NOT taking a risk along the way...
RE: McClure... I'm not impressed. The Central Banks own gold. India, China, & Russia are accumulating. If they're so hell-bent on preserving the ponzi fiat system forever, why own so much gold (and silver)? McClure himself closes with "my fellow hoarders/traders" ~ why is he holding any PMs if it's all a big set-up to crush the price? JPM is likely only one of the Fed's proxies, I don't see any revelations here that are going to disrupt the upward trend of the PMs.
ReplyDeleteHey Andrew, I like where you are going with that, but I have a different approach.
ReplyDeleteWho benefits from a PUBLICIZED apparent take down of the Comex? The regulators of course!
Let's say Gensler and Chilton really are good guys trying to do big things. I've never met them or looked them in the eye, but many speak well of them. Anyways, if some bankers or Chinese mobsters are threatening your life if you implement limits, this publicized take down of the comex gives you a very public reason to do your job.
But MY gut tells me Dodd and Frank are liars and thieves. So why would they come up with a position limits law that hurts their banking buddies? They wouldn't right? So who put position limits in that bill? If it was Dodd or Frank then their reason might be that they do not feel bad about screwing over the Chinese and might have a desire to because that would lead to war. Anyone know if Dodd or Frank are invested heavily in military stuff?
Just a thought.
Why would Sinclair give up position on TRE before Feb. 22? Especially during this run right now......don't get the timing? Anyone
ReplyDeleteJaws, what the hell are you referring to- that was pretty vague.
ReplyDeleteJaws136, maybe he was doing some profit taking then put half of it back in for a different date and used the rest to buy some physical? Just a guess, I don't know much about trading. I'm more of a supply/demand/fundamentals type of person.
ReplyDeleteWhoa.. ..There was ALOT of good stuff added to this thread after I checked out last night. It's going to take me all day to catch up on everything!
ReplyDeleteEric,
I'm going to hire you to do all my DD :] ..You're good at it and I hate it. That's manily why I try to find newsletters and blogs and such (like this one)...with folks who can help give you some good input as to their experience with a company. I did research Camino and I do like them. But..I'm in the same place as you.. sell something to buy something.. ..I agree.. you don't want to necessarily part with too much of your SLW! ..Slivermex is a safe gamble for me ..mostly because I got in at the .60-.80 range so I don't have as much skin in the game with that one as someone getting in now and in the future (hopefully).
Jason,
I can't thank you enough for the babypips shout out. I was up way too late going to 'school' over there and I am really learning so much. I have to proceed cautiously because I fancy myself as ANYthing but a trader. I am not one who will rush into this thinking I know how to make $ and I will definitely be starting out with a demo account. Thank you for all of your tips and advice. I will look into the forums as well and see what I can learn from those folks!
Daniel,
I love Marco G. His writings always teach me. I don't know why I've never signed up for his newsletter...going to do that today. Thank you!.. ...And btw, Eric.. Marco G. is the one who steered me to Silvermex. You make good points about SLX vs. Camino but Marco G. has such confidence in SLX I guess it was contagious for me back last year as he made such a good case!
@fourth: I agree with you there are questions around SLV that any reasonable person should be asking, which is why I personally would not hold SLV as a primary means of exposure to silver. However, there are many actors in the SLV fund, and it's not just Blackrock or one entity "adding from thin air." The silver comes from the authorized participants who are the ones that "find" silver. My guess would be under normal circumstances they maintain a stash of silver in order to take advantage of the SLV arbitrage opportunity when it presents itself.
ReplyDeleteHowever, in an extraordinarily tight silver market they may be more inclined to use their silver for other purposes... Leasing, perhaps? Or may outright selling if the price goes up enough. In that case, the fund will find silver inflows hard to obtain, which will make it impossible to create new shares, which is what drives the premium.
No idea if it will actually happen, but that is how it could occur.
Joe, as Andrew said, haven't read any of McClure's posts but if on the one hand he's hoarding physical & playing the miners yet in his last post you state "McClure also said in his last blog post that he thinks this WB story is a big setup to trap bulls."
ReplyDeleteI am confused if the latter is the message.
Flaunt, great posts on here & everywhere :) Roger, thanks for the link - Brian will probably be correct once the end of March rolls around, but side steps the main argument as to why he'll probably be correct and in line what WB's theory.
In respect of a lower price of silver if it's ever pushed into the 20's again, I go back to what Harvey Organ mentioned about not using leverage & ergo, gambling on a rising price. Have a comfortable amount in cash % wise will buy physical on the dips. Figure there's a load of individual's/funds the world over that would do the same.
another good point made by WB, imo: if JPM has been scouring the world over for the physical, is there not an incentive to raise the price to profit on the physical that is actually delivered?
Since it was mentioned, re-reading a few parts in Griffin's book. Here's one potentially relevant snippet:
"The federal Reserve would have to purchase the new bonds with fiat money. Therefore, foreign-held federal debt is a ticking time bomb. If it should ever have to be picked up by the Fed, the inflationary impact on our country would be staggering."
If I'm not mistaken, the book was first published in 1994.
Check out the lease rates. They are surging once again:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kitco.com/lease.chart.silv.html
That was an interesting exchange with Brian Wills at SeekingAlpha. He has some experience and he is a PM bull.
ReplyDeleteI'll put some of my cards on the table just so some of you know I am not trying to talk you out of your positions or establish uncertainty.
I am a rabid PM bull, and I trade futures aggressively. Last week I made more money trading silver than many six-figured salaried people make in a year.
I want silver to move up so that I can make leveraged gains, using the proceeds to take physical silver off the market. For the same reason, I also want silver to go down. Nothing would make me happier than to see silver retest 29 or 30 on Monday morning so that I can jump on the train with more confidence.
My uncertainty is whether I should jump in at 33 on Monday and weather any storms, or wait for the storm. Any big pullback in silver will most likely be bought aggressively by shorts and longs alike, unless something unexpected occurs, like a stock market crash, a CFTC type of action, or a bogus hint that the Fed may begin raising rates.
For capital preservation reasons, I am inclined to wait and see and look for a better entry point. I have my hedges and limit orders on long futures, which if filled will give me a locked in gain and the futures will be zero risk to the downside, fully leveraged to the upside.
The April 33 call options cost about 6k. If silver is going to 40 in a hurry, this is a small price to pay but it is still a drain on margin.
The biggest overall concern is that desperate cartels may do desperate things when cornered or threatened. They don't play fair because they do not have to. They make and break the rules. Breaking rules has consequences however, and it may be more damaging to their own cause than to just continue to allow the price of silver to rise.
In my opinion, silver is in backwardation, so the price of silver needs to rise to balance supply and demand. It is either that, or the legitimacy of the COMEX will be forever ruined and traders will leave it.
Joe is this your comment or is it a comment of Brian's that you pasted here?
ReplyDeleteI asked him what he thought about silver backwardation and he said this:
"Interest rates being near zero, depletion of above ground stocks of silver, and strong demand for the physical.
The market moving to backwardation is a very bullish sign."
@flaunt
ReplyDeleteI am not sure what you are asking. My thoughts here are exactly that -- I am not copying or echoing Brian's comments, and I am not Brian.
I have not pasted anything.
Your current web site is just fine. What do you need a web developer for?
ReplyDelete(a) Gathering subscriptions? - Just highlight how an expected donation of N$/ year is suggested.
(b) Ad Revenue - you can probably more more money off of donations.
(c) Moderating comments - find a Turd minion to volunteer to throw out spam.
MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us
very interesting stuff guys
ReplyDeletejoe: you wrote "McClure also said in his last blog post that he thinks this WB story is a big setup to trap bulls."
but looking at cache i dont see that?
We still have the Andrew Mcguire story hanging over thier heads like a sword of Damacles. Thats supposed to break next week . I dont know if that will work for us or against us. Its possible that many would dump thier paper, or silver may go through the roof.
ReplyDeleteI don't see a bull trap here. At least an intentionally planned one,However the opportunity may arise in March
ReplyDeleteIm learning a lot from everyone here , You guys have a few hundred years of combined experience . This is really great stuff
ReplyDelete@Blakely:
ReplyDeletePerhaps I misquote or mis-characterized McClure's words. Here is exactly what McClure said that I am referring to. Notice the part about well-scripted:
------------
McClure (from his old blog):
Short squeeze on Comex?
Well, it seems like we are headed towards the moon for silver. The price action is signaling something this time might be different. We broke through resistance very easily and although normaly I would expect a test for support, it seems everybody and their brother is piling on. That said I am still thinking this is a very nicely scripted play, ahead of a short week next week we may very well see a coordinated attack by the Cartel to bring it in a notch or two. I must admit I have never seen such a move, anywhere, anytime however we are still not in parabolic territory.
Im putting on a short here with tight stops. Oh boy.
Will try to do another post after closing.
------------------
Joe
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete