The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Prepare accordingly.
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
A New Thread
I don't have anything new to say right now but with the old thread well through the 200 comment level, I figured I'd better start a new one.
I'll have a full update in about 2 hours. TF
So this is it? The last day for a "big spike"? I'm getting paranoid that it's a setup. They got their "$33" and now after getting their premium...will go short and fuck anyone left in...paper of course.
I think I have finally figured out what the extremely bad feeling I have had since yesterday is all about. It is all the crazy unstoppable rumors going around. It is getting absolutely crazy. Very little talk about Wynter Benton today for a change, that is nice.
Forgive me for posting this question again, it seems to have gotten lost in the last thread:
If COMEX settles for cash plus premium instead of delivery, won't it be obvious that the buyers were just after the premium, and not really interested in the silver?
If that is what happens, won't the price of silver drop (physical, not paper necessarily)?
Demand for physical would be seen to have dropped, even though I'd imagine that, unless basic rules change on the COMEX, those chasing a cash+premium settlement will just buy more contracts and do it all again.
But then, that still makes it obvious that demand for physical silver is an illusion, so physical price drops.
I'm a total newbie at this, so I'm likely missing some pieces of the puzzle. I just don't know what those pieces are.
@joe - i was thinking the same thing... the March 33 puts were going for pennies so i bought some for insurance.. should give some protection against a 'black swan event'
overall though the fundamentals + technicals are sound (minus the manipulation going on)... as Trader Dan said, this is a once in a lifetime event!
Carrying over my last comment on Aurcana since it was left after the new thread posted. Definitely worth a look for anyone interested in a junior miner with lots of room for growth. They just recently became unhedged thanks to a $25 million dollar loan from Eric Sprott.
I remember someone asking in the comments not too long ago about unhedged miners, haven't kept up with all the comments so I'm not sure if this one has been mentioned yet or not.
It looks like the gold/silver ratio dipped below 42 today but was unable to stay there. If the gsr can get sub-40 and stay there, it will be huge for the price of silver heading forward.
"Have you seen how Gold, Silver and Oil prices are skyrocketing? No doubt this is linked to the mess in the Middle East. Here is a site I check several times a day to track these key indicators Kitco - Gold Precious Metals - Buy Gold"
http://www.facebook.com/#!/ronpaul
Ron has 302,000 friends. Thanks for putting the word out Ron :)
On the last thread someone mentioned they were buying options on USO. Don't do that. USO is utter garbage. Look into the oil company etfs, not oil price tracking etfs.
Perhaps we have only Silver/Gold bugs here but does somebody know good Rare Earth company to buy stocks?
Great Western (GWG.V) is looking promising but it is very long hold (3-5 years?). I am wandering if there is some with shorter period of profit. I already have silver and gold miners in my 401 play and would like to diversify it with RE stock.
Justin, I own Aurcana as well. The Shafter Ag mine in TX is going to make us a lot of $$$. Up 7% today after nice gains on Mon & Tues. I think it's heading up steadily from here.
Joe: I'm with you...volume was just okay for the price move in silver. Watch BM in the after-hours trading (Globex); I think she has saved the best (for her) for last.
Would all agree that this post on ZH should further bolster the money in the metals... http://www.zerohedge.com/article/very-weak-5-year-auction-raises-speculation-neither-us-dollar-nor-treasurys-are-flight-safet
I know we are all focused on the short term technicals with the roll vs delivery on the 28th, but we are surely getting a lot of support from the macro troubles?
@Vic - There have been cash settlements for months back. More and more physical being taken off the market each month. If many contracts just settle for cash this month, they'll be back again next month for more easy 30% premiums. Eventually the game will be over... from all we've read, it looks like the March contract will be the final nail in the coffin. Having been investing in PMs since 2005, I know anything is possible. This is why Sinclair cautions against trading G/S on margin. Good luck. Hope this helps
RE: Rare Earth Metals: I own Avalon Rare Metals (AVL:AMEX)
Biggest, most economical REE deposits in Canada (western hemisphere, probably). Going into production in 2015 I think, good relations with locals, and I think debt free.
@Skwaking - The Bernank won't let the stock markets crash again a la 2008. Just look at what Geithner said today. Fed can't raise interest rates a la Volcker in 80 to curb inflation because the US debt would accelerate even faster. It's QE to the moon from here on out. We may see a few days of panic, and some serious drops in PMs (if we're lucky) but then he'll step on the printing presses. Those few days of panic will be buy opportunities for PMs. Buy fear, sell greed.
The silver contract is still up 1.42% today. PAAS is down .3%, HL is only up 1.15%, SSRI is up .15%. Only SLW is doing better than silver... up 3.1% but perhaps that's just because it did the worst in the group yesterday.
All of them suck compared to where they were vrs the price of silver in Dec... or even in Mar 2008.
Anyone else out there getting miner fatigue? Perhaps it's just cause the dow is down today but perhaps it's because unlike on the COMEX, there is no limit to paper shorting the miner's shares. I'm beginning to think that to make maximum profits it's necessary to move 100% into bullion.
The following thread is similar to Bag of Gold's "Penny Stock Emporium" in nature, but the topic is about rare earth stocks. Bring The Gold is an expert in his own sense that I have read from him and he knows his stuff. You can find great information about rare earth companies and participate in his community at:
As far as companies I know have the goods: Molycorp (MCP) Avalon (AVL) Rare Earth Elements (REE)
And one company I am in that has a load of heavy rare earth elements: SSEBF (Silver Spruce Resources). I don't know much about it besides that Bring the Gold recommended it and I saw its relatively large untapped resources.
I agree. This is one of the more promising miners I followed for a while before hopping in. Their recent management additions are clear a sign that things are about to get busy there. Aurcana and Great Panther are the only miners I own and I am perfectly content with that.
I don't like miners because of the heavy toll and overhead, personnel, equipment, smelting/separation, fuel costs...even at current prices...margins are compressed and it is hard to ramp up production. ZH referred to current supply as a "bottleneck" in a recent article. I tend to disagree. I don't think miners will really ramp up production until the price creeps north of where it is now. Anyone telling you the full costs of production are 5 bucks an oz. are nuts.
Looks like Blythe was so focused on Ag today (not that she was very successful) that Au got completely out of hand. So now she has to change gears and go after AU on the Globex. Nerves getting a little frazzked there Blythe? Loosing your touch? I for one find it all too hilarious!
I also just bought added some AUNFF today, I think it is about to break past its 52 week high at .94 and then take a nice candle up to something well above $1.00. - Just my thoughts, no guarantees, but I agree with ewe58.
We did not have to wait too long, Fake Silver is now here!
There is Fake Silver on the market now! The coins are Morgan Silver Dollars dating all the way back to the 1880's and are in pawn shops, besides who knows where else! I would assume it is not just the U.S. that has Fake Silver but also other places in the world too.
A pawn shop in Washington State got a shipment of Morgan Silver Dollars in and felt something was not right about them. They called in a policeman, who could not tell what was wrong with them, until he was told they were fake.
The silver has an iron core and so people WILL be able to tell a Fake Silver coin by using a magnet! If a strong magnet is attracted to the coin it is fake! A real silver coin will not attract a magnet but fake ones will! Also a Fake Silver coin will thud when dropped compared to a high pitched ring of a real one, dropped! http://sherriequestioningall.blogspot.com/2011/02/alert-fake-silver-coinsbarsingots-are.html ............................................ Yup! Saw it comin right off! Gold always, but now silver is in the mix as price goes higher!
I have been buying pm's on a regular monthly basis for a couple of years now. My question to you guys is this....do you think we get a market correct that brings down pm's for a great buying opportunity? I recently sold a piece of property that I want to move proceeds into pm's. Just wandering should I just up my monthly purchases or hold back some powder if correction comes.
Thanks for all your work Turd. My kids get a kick out of me reading a blog from a guy named Turd!
If this really is WB's Group that's absorbing all of the EE's shorts (and frankly, who else might it be?), then it should surprise no one that they settle for a premium as that has been their publicly stated goal all along. They never said they wanted bullion. They wanted to force a big premium.
Will that break JPM? I do not have a clue, but it does seem to me they have an open pipeline to the big pixie-dollar creating machine at the FED, why would it?
AUR also announced today that they added a couple of quality guys to the management team. It's been the best performing stock in my portfolio over the last few days. It also set it's 52 week high today. Just for fun and to remember why I'm in it, I went back and looked at the 5 year chart. Looking good for Aurcana.
Embry noted that for the big gains investors should look to the mining shares, “It is time for the investors who really want torque to buy the precious metals mining shares. I think based on ratios that I follow that the shares are at one of the cheapest points vs the metal in recent history. I could see trading days where some of these shares will be up 20% to 25% at a time.
Joe, Is a big hit looming? Who knows and to be honest who really cares? If the paper price of Ag crashes to say $20, heck let's say $15oz. How long do you think the remaining Ag physical stock will last?
As a long time physical PM holder it's always been my opinion that when the actual physical above ground is all gone the paper price will crash and the physical price will skyrocket. All paper will burn.
@pforth Par for the course... Some say this is a trade to go long the metal and short the miners. I say it just manipulation. Stay long and strong the miners. You'll be rewarded in the long run.
In his book, Michael Maloney said that counterfeiting of coins was almost completely confined to collectible numismatics, so the Morgan would make sense. However, that was written when silver was maybe 10/oz. Maybe it will soon be cost effective to counterfeit silver eagles?
Thank you all for good information. Hopefully silver someday goes to the moon. Until then enjoy an Swedish anthem for silver. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jK-NcRmVcw
@unum mountaineer: the counterfeit coins are silver surrounding a core of base metal, either iron or tungsten. The only way to be sure is drop-ring and magnetic testing, BARRING cutting a coin in half to determine the metal is true throughout.
Not sure if this is the right thread to ask this. In preparing for a collapse of the financial system, I am trying to get our home ready with food, PM's, cash, water (Berkey filter, etc), etc. We live in the northern part of the country where it is very cold during the winter. I am trying to figure out how to keep us warm in the event our electricity and NG are cut off during the winter.
We have lots of blankets, thermal underwear, warm clothing - but unfortunately, we don't have a fireplace or wood burning oven. Any ideas on how to keep warm during the winter during an extended (several days) power outage?
What Lies Ahead http://bit.ly/ieflb5 "Sovereign debts will start to default globally and the velocity of capital will increase exponentially as people seek out safe havens. Unemployment will rise in the private sector. People will flee government bonds as if they were the plague. Gold and silver will rise. These trends are really beginning to take shape smack in the middle of a fairy tale economic recovery."
@pforth, Concur, I've a bit of Miner fatigue but, unfortunately, between them and the physical etf's, it's the only game in town for me, IRA's only. I'm thinking I just have to lengthen my time horizon a bit and ask myself in 6 months do I expect the miners to be higher, and the answer I keep getting, is 'Yes'. So, I may need to stop checking the stock quotes for a while and chill out. However, I do think all non-IRA money should be all physical or used to pay down debt.
I'm not a trader, but am invested in Sprott Precious Minerals Fund (outstanding returns).
For the stock pickers out there, here are the top ten stocks in the fund (about 40% of the total by %)... happy trading (I'd rather let Eric do it for me... a bargain at twice the price)!
Top Ten Holdings as at: December 31, 2010 1 Barrick Gold Corp. 2 Silver Wheaton Corp. 3 Kirkland Lake Gold, Inc. 4 Goldcorp Inc. 5 Silver Bars 6 Colossus Minerals, Inc. 7 Minera Andes, Inc. 8 Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd. 9 Orvana Minerals Corp. 10 Guyana Goldfields, Inc
Further on the fake silver - if you take a strong magnet (rare earth magnet - not your usual fridge magnet) and let it slide down a tilted silver bar, it will appear to "ooze" down the bar, as if there were some oil on the bar. This is due to the eddy currents set up in the silver by the magnet - opposing its movement. Depends on the conductivity. Works on silver dollars and the pure gold coins like the maples. Not on alloyed Au though. The magnet is not attracted to the silver - but if the magnet is moved you can feel the opposing force - it's cool! And a test.
I am not the most expert person here, but I would recommend you look at pellet stoves as a very efficient way to heat and cook. There are also lots of high eficiency wood stoves available now.
We had a whole thread here on Preparing Accordingly just a week or so back. Take a look at it. I don't think we talked much about this question though. I bet there's some others here who could tell you a lot more.
20% of MAR open interest has been taken off, according the CME final, released sometime after 9am today. http://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/Section62_Metals_Futures_Products_2011035.pdf
I have been burning serious calories on the "Wynter Benton post-settlement crash" question as well, and here's what I have to offer:
Any longs who stand for March delivery in order to collect a premium still have to STAND and POST 100% MARGIN to their account by next Monday.
If their premium collection strategy is valid, and if it actually works, then why would the price crater afterward? The COMEX will still have the same supply shortages at the end of March, so the EXACT same strategy would work again in May, only in May, the resolute longs would have even MORE cash to throw at the arbitrage play.
If the COMEX settles with the Longs by dishing out a fiat premium in March, then they set themselves up to have an even bigger problem in forward months.
Thus, there are only two viable paths this thing takes in the next 3 days:
1) The OI for March exceeds available COMEX inventory on first day notice, the longs stand for delivery, and the COMEX declares Force Majeure in Silver
2) The OI for March exceeds available COMEX inventory on first day notice, the longs stand for delivery, and the shorts pull a hat trick and actually deliver the silver to the exchange and say "take that, bitchez" or, they offer up worthless SLV shares- which are increasingly backed by zero silver themselves in the face of recent large scale redemptions.
3) The OI (and price) craters over the next two days as the BoS, WB, FOAM, or whomever, all turn tail and sell their long positions- giving BM and her pals the perfect environment to cover their shorts while the small potato traders get promoted to "sucker bag holder" status.
Obviously, number 3 requires a hedging strategy.
I'd be interested to hear if anyone has any other plausible theories as to how this could play out.
The "ring" test for silver does not work. There is a video on youtube of Jason Hommel convinced that a 100 oz JM bar is fake because it did not "ring" when tapped like the other bars. He took it to a bandsaw and cut it in half - it was solid silver.
Atlee, I have New Gold (NGD) also. Bought it mostly last summer and am a very happy camper. It is my largest gold stock position. Second biggest is Iamgold (IAG), which also pays a small dividend so it at least covers the commission cost.
Any time I read a bearish comment about silver, I repeat my mantra and all is well..."I am trading a commodity whose supply is growing exponentially (FRNs) for a commodity that is becoming increasingly rare...its all about the ounces."
"You have to monitor your fundamentals constantly because the only thing that changes will be your attention to them. The fundamentals will never change." Michael Jordan
Atlee: NGD has been good for me also. I posted before but I don't know if you saw it. ENY Canadian Energy Income ETF.I have owned it since Jan 2010 and it's up 35% with dividens.
You're not worried about the delayed earnings report? It sure seems to be bothering the market (and me!), judging by HL's relatively weak recent price movement.
Nigel - check around youtube, there is an old wood/oil/diesel burning stove that was used in the Korean War that you can find used at the army/navy surplus stores online. Very versitile and reliable.
Robert, what makes you think they would or could offer SLV shares in lieu of physical? I'd say it's highly unlikely they could deliver if there were enough standing to match the Comex figures. Even if they could they probably wouldn't because they would have a seriously hard time getting silver. The front month today is at 33.47 and Dec 2015 can't get a buyer with an ask of 33.08. That suggested there is still a huge premium on physical delivered immediately.
@ Sergie and REE freaks, I've been in ree since 08 bought RES@.60 one of the best. Here is my short list after much research:aru,lyc,avl,hud,ucu,tsm,mat,gwg,nem, and molycorp. You want to check out Jack Lifton he knows more than anyone I know of.A lot of ree co's are bullshit.Having the ree's is just the start of the battle. There is no one in the US to process the product and there is a different process for each (17) ree. All the scientist are in China as that is the only place they could get work. There is a race on to be the first in production but processing will be the challenge.Gwg (bought @.25)has a mine to market mindset whereby they will process their own product and others' product.nem - neo material technologies is a producer processor,and developer of rare earth powders for magnets and tech gadgets. Check out Jim Dines thoe "original rare earthbug". You want co's with heavy ree's mostly. This sector is gonna be big the gubmint needs this stuff for nappynal insecurity and green tech. Check out technologies Metals Research they send me e every week Lifton also.I get 1/12 17.50 calls on RES no brainer.
@Robert, I think the best bet is for a rule change that somehow protects the bankers against any OI exceeding their ability, or will, to deliver, I'm not smart enough to figure out the new rule. Whichever scenario hits, I think the reaction is for much higher prices for physical come June.
When I said they would have a seriously hard time getting silver, I meant finding physical to replenish their stocks. I don't think they'll give them up willingly.
http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/ ...Silver however saw a sharp drop in open interest which plunged a bit over 5,000 with the rollover beginning in earnest as traders move out of the March into the May contract. It is going to be interesting to see how the delivery process unfolds in the March contract as we enter that period next week. The backwardation structure still exists but it seems to be loosening up a bit based on where the first three futures months are trading as I write this....
Obviously, you will have to make your own judgment as to what type of fuel is most practical and available in your locale. Pellets are readily available in North America, maybe not in the UK, but probably are in Sweden/Norway.
@oldnavy: That would be correct. A heavy bar like that has too much mass to resonate. Hit it hard enough, I am sure it WILL resonate, but you'd ding your pretty bar. The conversation was about counterfeit coins.
No, I'm not too concerned about the delay with Hecla or the lack of price movement right now. From what I read here most of the miners are not doing much right now. Hecla will get a slingshot effect after the spot price explodes upwards, as will all the other miners.
"Silver whistleblower Andrew Maguire today announced a new service for metals traders. The service is designed to take advantage of the volatility in the metals markets."
Yes, I have 39,528 OI for MAR SI as of the CME final. Although that probably looks like a partial victory, as it represents a massive 20% reduction from the previous day's report, the fact that we are still at nearly 40K OI for the MAR contract is notable indeed at this point in the month. FWIW, I expect similar characteristics to appear in the oil markets as the system tries to work through the sudden loss of Libyan production. From a macro perspective, the two commodities are of course not unrelated. After all, it's only been silver and gold that have maintained purchasing power against oil the past decade.
The Chinese have been faking Trade dollars for a century and for the 5-10 years Morgan dollars. Almost all are pretty easy to spot if you're in the business...and don't get start on the Omega counterfeiter of Gold coins..that guy was really good.
>A heavy bar like that has too much mass to resonate.
It's mass has nothing to do with it. Have you ever seen the Liberty Bell? I used to work just across the street from it and saw it every day. Or just watch the video I posted above - Jason Hommel taps the 100oz bars with a small metal rod, and they do actually ring. :)
Anyway, for traders, I have a couple thoughts. First any disruption of oil imports or fears of same will drive all energy stocks up, won't it? (Already happening. Obviously.) This country has trillions of cubic feet of nat gas available. A couple years ago, Boone Pickens was all over that, plus touting his west Texas wind power holdings. Wouldn't there be talk of moving more of our supply toward nat gas and uranium? In that regard, check out CHK today. Up 12% or so in the last two days. DNN is way down the last couple days. Don't know why and don't see why it couldn't zip back up pretty soon. It did that not long ago. A new little play is Tournigan Energy. Check it out and do your dd.
I'm holding some cash ready in case there is any unrest in Iran or Saudi Arabia (or Venezuela, for that matter), which would make oil prices go ballistic. Wouldn't that call for an immediate purchase of puts against such "guilty pleasure" companies like SBUX and PNRA that have gone up so nicely lately. Wouldn't your average Joe give up his Venti cup a joe?
I think that's a great way to play the miners...I have a bit more of an appetite for risk and prefer to stock-pick. Two companies that I have followed Sprott into are Orvana Minerals (#9 on that list) and Avino Gold and Silver (Check out the low float and what Sprott did with them recently).
Looks like the end of the thread jj so I can respond directly...
Just wanted to post Eric's top picks for the rest of the community. I have my fund, and I play silver in the Sprott Bullion Trust, but with these swings in Ag I may just cash the last of my general stock investment (I'm managing my own retirement fund) and do some trading on the swings.
So this is it? The last day for a "big spike"? I'm getting paranoid that it's a setup. They got their "$33" and now after getting their premium...will go short and fuck anyone left in...paper of course.
ReplyDeleteAnyone agree?
Is a big hit looming?
That'd be nice, great buying opp. But no, I don't think it's coming.
ReplyDeleteI think I have finally figured out what the extremely bad feeling I have had since yesterday is all about. It is all the crazy unstoppable rumors going around. It is getting absolutely crazy. Very little talk about Wynter Benton today for a change, that is nice.
ReplyDeleteForgive me for posting this question again, it seems to have gotten lost in the last thread:
ReplyDeleteIf COMEX settles for cash plus premium instead of delivery, won't it be obvious that the buyers were just after the premium, and not really interested in the silver?
If that is what happens, won't the price of silver drop (physical, not paper necessarily)?
Demand for physical would be seen to have dropped, even though I'd imagine that, unless basic rules change on the COMEX, those chasing a cash+premium settlement will just buy more contracts and do it all again.
But then, that still makes it obvious that demand for physical silver is an illusion, so physical price drops.
I'm a total newbie at this, so I'm likely missing some pieces of the puzzle. I just don't know what those pieces are.
@joe - i was thinking the same thing... the March 33 puts were going for pennies so i bought some for insurance.. should give some protection against a 'black swan event'
ReplyDeleteoverall though the fundamentals + technicals are sound (minus the manipulation going on)... as Trader Dan said, this is a once in a lifetime event!
Carrying over my last comment on Aurcana since it was left after the new thread posted. Definitely worth a look for anyone interested in a junior miner with lots of room for growth. They just recently became unhedged thanks to a $25 million dollar loan from Eric Sprott.
ReplyDeleteI remember someone asking in the comments not too long ago about unhedged miners, haven't kept up with all the comments so I'm not sure if this one has been mentioned yet or not.
It looks like the gold/silver ratio dipped below 42 today but was unable to stay there. If the gsr can get sub-40 and stay there, it will be huge for the price of silver heading forward.
ReplyDeleteRon Paul on Facebook 5 minutes ago
ReplyDelete"Have you seen how Gold, Silver and Oil prices are skyrocketing? No doubt this is linked to the mess in the Middle East. Here is a site I check several times a day to track these key indicators
Kitco - Gold Precious Metals - Buy Gold"
http://www.facebook.com/#!/ronpaul
Ron has 302,000 friends. Thanks for putting the word out Ron :)
On the last thread someone mentioned they were buying options on USO. Don't do that. USO is utter garbage. Look into the oil company etfs, not oil price tracking etfs.
ReplyDeleteSilver hoarders! We are saved. The best headline of the week, our promising future, those idiots should have not sold their silver yesterday.
ReplyDeleteThanks Turd. Just having a good old fashioned Wednesday. Fuck you JP Morgan.
http://thecivillibertarian.blogspot.com/2011/02/absolute-best-thing-i-have-read-all.html
I had to copy it from old thread.
ReplyDeletePerhaps we have only Silver/Gold bugs here but does somebody know good Rare Earth company to buy stocks?
Great Western (GWG.V) is looking promising but it is very long hold (3-5 years?). I am wandering if there is some with shorter period of profit. I already have silver and gold miners in my 401 play and would like to diversify it with RE stock.
Justin, I own Aurcana as well. The Shafter Ag mine in TX is going to make us a lot of $$$. Up 7% today after nice gains on Mon & Tues. I think it's heading up steadily from here.
ReplyDeleteJoe:
ReplyDeleteI'm with you...volume was just okay for the price move in silver. Watch BM in the after-hours trading (Globex); I think she has saved the best (for her) for last.
Would all agree that this post on ZH should further bolster the money in the metals... http://www.zerohedge.com/article/very-weak-5-year-auction-raises-speculation-neither-us-dollar-nor-treasurys-are-flight-safet
ReplyDeleteI know we are all focused on the short term technicals with the roll vs delivery on the 28th, but we are surely getting a lot of support from the macro troubles?
@Vic -
ReplyDeleteThere have been cash settlements for months back. More and more physical being taken off the market each month. If many contracts just settle for cash this month, they'll be back again next month for more easy 30% premiums. Eventually the game will be over... from all we've read, it looks like the March contract will be the final nail in the coffin. Having been investing in PMs since 2005, I know anything is possible. This is why Sinclair cautions against trading G/S on margin. Good luck. Hope this helps
RE: Rare Earth Metals: I own Avalon Rare Metals (AVL:AMEX)
ReplyDeleteBiggest, most economical REE deposits in Canada (western hemisphere, probably). Going into production in 2015 I think, good relations with locals, and I think debt free.
DYODD.
Did anyone figure out why the VOLUME was so low since 10am today?
ReplyDelete@Skwaking - The Bernank won't let the stock markets crash again a la 2008. Just look at what Geithner said today. Fed can't raise interest rates a la Volcker in 80 to curb inflation because the US debt would accelerate even faster. It's QE to the moon from here on out. We may see a few days of panic, and some serious drops in PMs (if we're lucky) but then he'll step on the printing presses. Those few days of panic will be buy opportunities for PMs. Buy fear, sell greed.
ReplyDeleteThe silver contract is still up 1.42% today. PAAS is down .3%, HL is only up 1.15%, SSRI is up .15%. Only SLW is doing better than silver... up 3.1% but perhaps that's just because it did the worst in the group yesterday.
ReplyDeleteAll of them suck compared to where they were vrs the price of silver in Dec... or even in Mar 2008.
Anyone else out there getting miner fatigue? Perhaps it's just cause the dow is down today but perhaps it's because unlike on the COMEX, there is no limit to paper shorting the miner's shares. I'm beginning to think that to make maximum profits it's necessary to move 100% into bullion.
SilverSurfer: I just posted a shoutout to Turd's blog in Ron's FB comments.
ReplyDeleteI hate those after hours trading. Tomorrow Gold to the all time highs!! suck it blythe!
ReplyDelete@reefman
ReplyDeleteI'm also very surprised by the low volumes right after 10am. Somehow today feels a bit like an anti-climax to me..
A little inspirational freedom song:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ut9hUUbQ7s0
@ Sergie and Rare Earth Enthusiasts
ReplyDeleteThe following thread is similar to Bag of Gold's "Penny Stock Emporium" in nature, but the topic is about rare earth stocks. Bring The Gold is an expert in his own sense that I have read from him and he knows his stuff. You can find great information about rare earth companies and participate in his community at:
Rare Earth Companies Thread
As far as companies I know have the goods:
Molycorp (MCP)
Avalon (AVL)
Rare Earth Elements (REE)
And one company I am in that has a load of heavy rare earth elements: SSEBF (Silver Spruce Resources). I don't know much about it besides that Bring the Gold recommended it and I saw its relatively large untapped resources.
Cheers
-
Scott J
ecw58,
ReplyDeleteI agree. This is one of the more promising miners I followed for a while before hopping in. Their recent management additions are clear a sign that things are about to get busy there. Aurcana and Great Panther are the only miners I own and I am perfectly content with that.
Aurcana Corporate News
This could be huge for oil -
ReplyDeletehttp://edegrootinsights.blogspot.com/2011/02/nervousness-in-oil-market.html
I'm watching the volume for Spot Silver today. Before 8:00am we had good volume. After that almost nothing. What gives?
ReplyDeleteJust my two cents.
ReplyDeleteI don't like miners because of the heavy toll and overhead, personnel, equipment, smelting/separation, fuel costs...even at current prices...margins are compressed and it is hard to ramp up production. ZH referred to current supply as a "bottleneck" in a recent article. I tend to disagree. I don't think miners will really ramp up production until the price creeps north of where it is now. Anyone telling you the full costs of production are 5 bucks an oz. are nuts.
Why is today an anti-climax? What were ya'll expecting today specifically?
ReplyDeleteWe still have a few days left before the end of the month, to see if WB & gang are full of it.
Looks like Blythe was so focused on Ag today (not that she was very successful) that Au got completely out of hand. So now she has to change gears and go after AU on the Globex. Nerves getting a little frazzked there Blythe? Loosing your touch? I for one find it all too hilarious!
ReplyDeleteI also just bought added some AUNFF today, I think it is about to break past its 52 week high at .94 and then take a nice candle up to something well above $1.00.
ReplyDelete-
Just my thoughts, no guarantees, but I agree with ewe58.
We did not have to wait too long, Fake Silver is now here!
ReplyDeleteThere is Fake Silver on the market now! The coins are Morgan Silver Dollars dating all the way back to the 1880's and are in pawn shops, besides who knows where else! I would assume it is not just the U.S. that has Fake Silver but also other places in the world too.
A pawn shop in Washington State got a shipment of Morgan Silver Dollars in and felt something was not right about them. They called in a policeman, who could not tell what was wrong with them, until he was told they were fake.
The silver has an iron core and so people WILL be able to tell a Fake Silver coin by using a magnet! If a strong magnet is attracted to the coin it is fake! A real silver coin will not attract a magnet but fake ones will! Also a Fake Silver coin will thud when dropped compared to a high pitched ring of a real one, dropped! http://sherriequestioningall.blogspot.com/2011/02/alert-fake-silver-coinsbarsingots-are.html
............................................
Yup! Saw it comin right off! Gold always, but now silver is in the mix as price goes higher!
What the heck is going on with AXU? There's no sign of any news and it's getting slammed today
ReplyDeleteThe volume on my silver chart shows relatively high volume around 1030 and 1230.
ReplyDeleteCME shows decent volume overall but nothing spectacular.
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver.html
I have been buying pm's on a regular monthly basis for a couple of years now. My question to you guys is this....do you think we get a market correct that brings down pm's for a great buying opportunity?
ReplyDeleteI recently sold a piece of property that I want to move proceeds into pm's. Just wandering should I just up my monthly purchases or hold back some powder if correction comes.
Thanks for all your work Turd. My kids get a kick out of me reading a blog from a guy named Turd!
Vic, Jesus
ReplyDeleteIf this really is WB's Group that's absorbing all of the EE's shorts (and frankly, who else might it be?), then it should surprise no one that they settle for a premium as that has been their publicly stated goal all along. They never said they wanted bullion. They wanted to force a big premium.
Will that break JPM? I do not have a clue, but it does seem to me they have an open pipeline to the big pixie-dollar creating machine at the FED, why would it?
Justin & ecw58
ReplyDeleteAUR also announced today that they added a couple of quality guys to the management team. It's been the best performing stock in my portfolio over the last few days. It also set it's 52 week high today. Just for fun and to remember why I'm in it, I went back and looked at the 5 year chart. Looking good for Aurcana.
Embry noted that for the big gains investors should look to the mining shares, “It is time for the investors who really want torque to buy the precious metals mining shares. I think based on ratios that I follow that the shares are at one of the cheapest points vs the metal in recent history. I could see trading days where some of these shares will be up 20% to 25% at a time.
ReplyDeleteJoe, Is a big hit looming? Who knows and to be honest who really cares? If the paper price of Ag crashes to say $20, heck let's say $15oz. How long do you think the remaining Ag physical stock will last?
ReplyDeleteAs a long time physical PM holder it's always been my opinion that when the actual physical above ground is all gone the paper price will crash and the physical price will skyrocket. All paper will burn.
@pforth
ReplyDeletePar for the course... Some say this is a trade to go long the metal and short the miners. I say it just manipulation. Stay long and strong the miners. You'll be rewarded in the long run.
JFC
@Afrum
ReplyDeleteIn his book, Michael Maloney said that counterfeiting of coins was almost completely confined to collectible numismatics, so the Morgan would make sense. However, that was written when silver was maybe 10/oz. Maybe it will soon be cost effective to counterfeit silver eagles?
another rare earth play is ....
ReplyDeleteStans Energy Corp (Canadian)
RUU.V (Canada)
STZYF (US PINK)
went from .25 in Sept to 3.25 Feb 7 ... now consolidating around 2.25 ... as aways with these types volume better on Canadian side.
DYODD please
Thank you all for good information. Hopefully silver someday goes to the moon. Until then enjoy an Swedish anthem for silver.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jK-NcRmVcw
loved my last word verification "BANGOLA"
ReplyDelete@ afrum:
ReplyDeleteI would suggest readers get a Metallurgical kit to be on the safe side. Dropping a coin or using a magnet is good but you wanna be sure.
@unum mountaineer: the counterfeit coins are silver surrounding a core of base metal, either iron or tungsten. The only way to be sure is drop-ring and magnetic testing, BARRING cutting a coin in half to determine the metal is true throughout.
ReplyDeleteMy open positions looked pretty good at 11:00AM ET!
ReplyDeleteNot so much now... :(
Helca will be a pleasant surprise on the 28 Feb
ReplyDelete@Scottj88
ReplyDeleteThanks a lot. I am a big fan of Bag Of Gold (it's a pity I didn't find her thread much earlier). If that RE resource is similar it is great.
@James
ReplyDeleteThat cheers me up!
Hi everyone,
ReplyDeleteNot sure if this is the right thread to ask this. In preparing for a collapse of the financial system, I am trying to get our home ready with food, PM's, cash, water (Berkey filter, etc), etc. We live in the northern part of the country where it is very cold during the winter. I am trying to figure out how to keep us warm in the event our electricity and NG are cut off during the winter.
We have lots of blankets, thermal underwear, warm clothing - but unfortunately, we don't have a fireplace or wood burning oven. Any ideas on how to keep warm during the winter during an extended (several days) power outage?
Thanks for any advice you can offer.
What Lies Ahead
ReplyDeletehttp://bit.ly/ieflb5
"Sovereign debts will start to default globally and the velocity of capital will increase exponentially as people seek out safe havens. Unemployment will rise in the private sector. People will flee government bonds as if they were the plague. Gold and silver will rise. These trends are really beginning to take shape smack in the middle of a fairy tale economic recovery."
I have not heard NGD mentioned. NGD (New Gold) has been very very good to me.
ReplyDelete@pforth, Concur, I've a bit of Miner fatigue but, unfortunately, between them and the physical etf's, it's the only game in town for me, IRA's only. I'm thinking I just have to lengthen my time horizon a bit and ask myself in 6 months do I expect the miners to be higher, and the answer I keep getting, is 'Yes'. So, I may need to stop checking the stock quotes for a while and chill out. However, I do think all non-IRA money should be all physical or used to pay down debt.
ReplyDeleteI'm not a trader, but am invested in Sprott Precious Minerals Fund (outstanding returns).
ReplyDeleteFor the stock pickers out there, here are the top ten stocks in the fund (about 40% of the total by %)... happy trading (I'd rather let Eric do it for me... a bargain at twice the price)!
Top Ten Holdings
as at: December 31, 2010
1 Barrick Gold Corp.
2 Silver Wheaton Corp.
3 Kirkland Lake Gold, Inc.
4 Goldcorp Inc.
5 Silver Bars
6 Colossus Minerals, Inc.
7 Minera Andes, Inc.
8 Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd.
9 Orvana Minerals Corp.
10 Guyana Goldfields, Inc
Further on the fake silver - if you take a strong magnet (rare earth magnet - not your usual fridge magnet) and let it slide down a tilted silver bar, it will appear to "ooze" down the bar, as if there were some oil on the bar. This is due to the eddy currents set up in the silver by the magnet - opposing its movement. Depends on the conductivity. Works on silver dollars and the pure gold coins like the maples. Not on alloyed Au though. The magnet is not attracted to the silver - but if the magnet is moved you can feel the opposing force - it's cool! And a test.
ReplyDeleteEric Sprott 'There is no more silver left...'
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/eric-sprott-there-no-more-silver-left
My tracker for silver spot has flatlined...anyone else seeing this?
ReplyDelete@Nigel
ReplyDeleteI am not the most expert person here, but I would recommend you look at pellet stoves as a very efficient way to heat and cook. There are also lots of high eficiency wood stoves available now.
We had a whole thread here on Preparing Accordingly just a week or so back. Take a look at it. I don't think we talked much about this question though. I bet there's some others here who could tell you a lot more.
20% of MAR open interest has been taken off, according the CME final, released sometime after 9am today.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/Section62_Metals_Futures_Products_2011035.pdf
Doesn't Fisch make a tool for Silver Eagles (measures weight and external dimensions)? Not sure about morgans or other older coins.
ReplyDeleteI have been burning serious calories on the "Wynter Benton post-settlement crash" question as well, and here's what I have to offer:
ReplyDeleteAny longs who stand for March delivery in order to collect a premium still have to STAND and POST 100% MARGIN to their account by next Monday.
If their premium collection strategy is valid, and if it actually works, then why would the price crater afterward? The COMEX will still have the same supply shortages at the end of March, so the EXACT same strategy would work again in May, only in May, the resolute longs would have even MORE cash to throw at the arbitrage play.
If the COMEX settles with the Longs by dishing out a fiat premium in March, then they set themselves up to have an even bigger problem in forward months.
Thus, there are only two viable paths this thing takes in the next 3 days:
1) The OI for March exceeds available COMEX inventory on first day notice, the longs stand for delivery, and the COMEX declares Force Majeure in Silver
2) The OI for March exceeds available COMEX inventory on first day notice, the longs stand for delivery, and the shorts pull a hat trick and actually deliver the silver to the exchange and say "take that, bitchez" or, they offer up worthless SLV shares- which are increasingly backed by zero silver themselves in the face of recent large scale redemptions.
3) The OI (and price) craters over the next two days as the BoS, WB, FOAM, or whomever, all turn tail and sell their long positions- giving BM and her pals the perfect environment to cover their shorts while the small potato traders get promoted to "sucker bag holder" status.
Obviously, number 3 requires a hedging strategy.
I'd be interested to hear if anyone has any other plausible theories as to how this could play out.
@Nigel (11:57)
ReplyDeleteFirst of all, make sure that your living spaces are well insulated (including windows)...
Probably your best bet (sans fireplace) would be to get a propane gas generator (for electricity)...
Propane gas canisters & propane itself are still relatively cheap...
@Mookie8: Since a Silver Eagle is pure silver, and a Morgan or an older coin is only 90% silver, they are totally different.
ReplyDeleteThe "ring" test for silver does not work. There is a video on youtube of Jason Hommel convinced that a 100 oz JM bar is fake because it did not "ring" when tapped like the other bars. He took it to a bandsaw and cut it in half - it was solid silver.
ReplyDeleteHere you go:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sl9xWtphiK8
@oldNavy and @CV
ReplyDeleteThanks for your advice on heating a home in an emergency. I had never heard of a pellet stove before! Will definitely check it out...
Atlee, I have New Gold (NGD) also. Bought it mostly last summer and am a very happy camper. It is my largest gold stock position. Second biggest is Iamgold (IAG), which also pays a small dividend so it at least covers the commission cost.
ReplyDeleteAny time I read a bearish comment about silver, I repeat my mantra and all is well..."I am trading a commodity whose supply is growing exponentially (FRNs) for a commodity that is becoming increasingly rare...its all about the ounces."
ReplyDelete"You have to monitor your fundamentals constantly because the only thing that changes will be your attention to them. The fundamentals will never change." Michael Jordan
Atlee:
ReplyDeleteNGD has been good for me also. I posted before but I don't know if you saw it. ENY Canadian Energy Income ETF.I have owned it since Jan 2010 and it's up 35% with dividens.
I'm seeing that the March OI basis last night was 39,528.
ReplyDeleteDoes that sound right?
Let's not take our eye of the USDollar. I'll let Professor Turd to the chart but this puppy sure looks like it wants to barf up its lunch.
ReplyDelete@ what time the option will be settled today ??
ReplyDelete@James and anyone else re: Hecla:
ReplyDeleteYou're not worried about the delayed earnings report? It sure seems to be bothering the market (and me!), judging by HL's relatively weak recent price movement.
Nigel - check around youtube, there is an old wood/oil/diesel burning stove that was used in the Korean War that you can find used at the army/navy surplus stores online. Very versitile and reliable.
ReplyDeleteRobert, what makes you think they would or could offer SLV shares in lieu of physical? I'd say it's highly unlikely they could deliver if there were enough standing to match the Comex figures. Even if they could they probably wouldn't because they would have a seriously hard time getting silver. The front month today is at 33.47 and Dec 2015 can't get a buyer with an ask of 33.08. That suggested there is still a huge premium on physical delivered immediately.
ReplyDelete@ Sergie and REE freaks,
ReplyDeleteI've been in ree since 08 bought RES@.60 one of the best. Here is my short list after much research:aru,lyc,avl,hud,ucu,tsm,mat,gwg,nem, and molycorp. You want to check out Jack Lifton he knows more than anyone I know of.A lot of ree co's are bullshit.Having the ree's is just the start of the battle. There is no one in the US to process the product and there is a different process for each (17) ree. All the scientist are in China as that is the only place they could get work. There is a race on to be the first in production but processing will be the challenge.Gwg (bought @.25)has a mine to market mindset whereby they will process their own product and others' product.nem - neo material technologies is a producer processor,and developer of rare earth powders for magnets and tech gadgets. Check out Jim Dines thoe "original rare earthbug". You want co's with heavy ree's mostly. This sector is gonna be big the gubmint needs this stuff for nappynal insecurity and green tech. Check out technologies Metals Research they send me e every week Lifton also.I get 1/12 17.50 calls on RES no brainer.
@Robert, I think the best bet is for a rule change that somehow protects the bankers against any OI exceeding their ability, or will, to deliver, I'm not smart enough to figure out the new rule. Whichever scenario hits, I think the reaction is for much higher prices for physical come June.
ReplyDeleteWhen I said they would have a seriously hard time getting silver, I meant finding physical to replenish their stocks. I don't think they'll give them up willingly.
ReplyDeleteCheck out the latest from Dan...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/
...Silver however saw a sharp drop in open interest which plunged a bit over 5,000 with the rollover beginning in earnest as traders move out of the March into the May contract. It is going to be interesting to see how the delivery process unfolds in the March contract as we enter that period next week. The backwardation structure still exists but it seems to be loosening up a bit based on where the first three futures months are trading as I write this....
@Nigel
ReplyDeleteObviously, you will have to make your own judgment as to what type of fuel is most practical and available in your locale. Pellets are readily available in North America, maybe not in the UK, but probably are in Sweden/Norway.
I always thought the ring test was just for coins. Doesn't seem like a 100 oz bar of any metal would have very much ring to it.
ReplyDeletemaybe I should change my name to "BANGOLA" ... nothing to do right now ...
ReplyDelete@oldnavy: That would be correct. A heavy bar like that has too much mass to resonate. Hit it hard enough, I am sure it WILL resonate, but you'd ding your pretty bar. The conversation was about counterfeit coins.
ReplyDelete@Mister
ReplyDeleteNo, I'm not too concerned about the delay with Hecla or the lack of price movement right now. From what I read here most of the miners are not doing much right now. Hecla will get a slingshot effect after the spot price explodes upwards, as will all the other miners.
Latest from KWN...
ReplyDelete"Silver whistleblower Andrew Maguire today announced a new service for metals traders. The service is designed to take advantage of the volatility in the metals markets."
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/2/23_Silver_Whistleblower_Andrew_Maguire_Launches_Metals_Service.html
Yes, I have 39,528 OI for MAR SI as of the CME final. Although that probably looks like a partial victory, as it represents a massive 20% reduction from the previous day's report, the fact that we are still at nearly 40K OI for the MAR contract is notable indeed at this point in the month. FWIW, I expect similar characteristics to appear in the oil markets as the system tries to work through the sudden loss of Libyan production. From a macro perspective, the two commodities are of course not unrelated. After all, it's only been silver and gold that have maintained purchasing power against oil the past decade.
ReplyDeleteG
Hey Turd... et al... I loved the miner post....
ReplyDeleteI was hoping someone could give me some suggestions of miners traded in Brazil, my fiancee is Brazilian and has money there to invest there.
Any assistance would be helpful.
Thanks!
4182 "PNT's"
ReplyDeletePOSITION LIMITS...PLEASE READ...
ReplyDeletehttp://clicks.aweber.com/y/ct/?l=Gcrsw&m=IyVHOMm9dAZ85B&b=bZzRXdF.y4oD4xSkzFS8wg
I've finally posted that update.
ReplyDeleteThe Chinese have been faking Trade dollars for a century and for the 5-10 years Morgan dollars. Almost all are pretty easy to spot if you're in the business...and don't get start on the Omega counterfeiter of Gold coins..that guy was really good.
ReplyDeleteRE: USDX
ReplyDeleteHere's the thing, 70% of the weight is given to the euro and the UK pound. Kind of like watching the marathon at the senior olympics, if you ask me.
Watch the Canadian dollar this year. I am thinking I might even start a stash of loonies to use in an emergency...
@Falcon: RE: "ring" of 100oz bar
ReplyDelete>A heavy bar like that has too much mass to resonate.
It's mass has nothing to do with it. Have you ever seen the Liberty Bell? I used to work just across the street from it and saw it every day. Or just watch the video I posted above - Jason Hommel taps the 100oz bars with a small metal rod, and they do actually ring. :)
Hey, there's another Daniel around here?
ReplyDeleteAnyway, for traders, I have a couple thoughts. First any disruption of oil imports or fears of same will drive all energy stocks up, won't it? (Already happening. Obviously.) This country has trillions of cubic feet of nat gas available. A couple years ago, Boone Pickens was all over that, plus touting his west Texas wind power holdings. Wouldn't there be talk of moving more of our supply toward nat gas and uranium? In that regard, check out CHK today. Up 12% or so in the last two days. DNN is way down the last couple days. Don't know why and don't see why it couldn't zip back up pretty soon. It did that not long ago. A new little play is Tournigan Energy. Check it out and do your dd.
I'm holding some cash ready in case there is any unrest in Iran or Saudi Arabia (or Venezuela, for that matter), which would make oil prices go ballistic. Wouldn't that call for an immediate purchase of puts against such "guilty pleasure" companies like SBUX and PNRA that have gone up so nicely lately. Wouldn't your average Joe give up his Venti cup a joe?
Any other ideas in that vein?
@zzz28
ReplyDeleteI like ENY too. I probably should own some instead of CNQ and SU.
@old navy
I have also been thinking about buying some canadian dollars. I think that is a good idea.
@srv es339
ReplyDeleteI think that's a great way to play the miners...I have a bit more of an appetite for risk and prefer to stock-pick.
Two companies that I have followed Sprott into are Orvana Minerals (#9 on that list) and Avino Gold and Silver (Check out the low float and what Sprott did with them recently).
Looks like the end of the thread jj so I can respond directly...
ReplyDeleteJust wanted to post Eric's top picks for the rest of the community. I have my fund, and I play silver in the Sprott Bullion Trust, but with these swings in Ag I may just cash the last of my general stock investment (I'm managing my own retirement fund) and do some trading on the swings.
Best of luck!