Sunday, February 13, 2011

Preparing Accordingly II

A frequent topic here has been the ongoing and still-building food inflation crisis. The MSM is just now awakening and beginning to discuss the implications. By the time the great unwashed become fully aware of the magnitude of this problem, it will be too late. You, my dear reader, still have time to prepare.

As you know by now, the endless money printing by our inept and foolish "leaders" is causing prices to rise in all things dollar-denominated. Economics 101 teaches us that more dollars chasing a static supply of goods leads to an increase in price. Eventually, these rising input costs are passed along to the consumer in the form of cost-push inflation. This insidious monster is the most painful of economic afflictions as rising costs are not met with commensurate rises in wages. The pain to the consumer is great and often brings about social unrest and upheaval. We will surely discuss this phenomenon in greater detail in the days ahead. For now, I wanted to give you charts on some items that we don't normally follow here, just so you can grasp the dimension and scale of that which lies ahead.

First up is the primary commodity index, the C.R.B. Here is the current makeup of the index:

EnergyCrude Oil, Heating Oil,
Natural Gas
GrainsWheat, Corn, Soybeans17.6%
IndustrialsCopper, Cotton11.8%
MeatsLive Cattle, Lean Hogs11.8%
SoftsCoffee, Cocoa, Sugar
Orange Juice
Gold, Silver, Platinum17.6%

And here is a weekly chart:
When did the index really take off? Last July. Why then? That's when the realization was made that QE2 was coming. Will it continue rising? As long as QE continues? Will QE ever end? No. It can't.

First up, coffee. Coffee is a great cost-push example. For now, companies like Starbucks are trying to absorb some of this rise in price by slashing margins and other internal "controls". They can't can't keep this up forever, though, so soon your latte is going up in price. A lot. Interestingly, SBUX has risen about 30% since July. Does that add up for you? Me, neither.

OK, now, here's where the real problem is: Corn and the other grains.  The dispshit shills, LIESman, Krugman et al , can wax prophetic all they want about the minimal impact these higher prices will have on the consumer. You can draw three conclusions from this:
1) They are all profoundly stupid, almost to the point of partial retardation.
2) They are criminally negligent in their lack of basic economic education.
3) They are deliberately misleading people in the hopes of maintaining the ponzi as long as possible.
I'll let you decide which is true. I know which one I believe.
Back to corn. Look at this chart:
This near 100% move has occurred in the offseason. What happens if we get a little drought in the American midwest this summer?
What the shills fail to recognize is the interaction between agricultural commodities. In this case, its the relationship between corn, cattle and hogs. You see, if you're a rancher or a pig farmer, your primary input cost is feed. (Ever heard of the term "midwest corn-fed beef"?) When feed costs double, your first move as you attempt to control costs is to sell some of your stock. As those cows and pigs come to market, their presence has the same impact as any other increase in supply...a temporary suppression of price. Yet, even in this environment, look at a cattle chart:
And look at hogs:
The only thing that has kept cow and pig prices from rising at the same rate as the grains is this temporary increase in supply. Replacement rate of a herd or barn is usually not much more than 1:1 so it follows that all of the excess supply currently in the market will lead to a commensurate drop in supply later this year. Add less supply to increased demand (due to QE) and you get explosive price increases. So, not only are the grains significantly more expensive, protein is, too. Not good. Not good at all.

Thus the phrase: Prepare Accordingly. The time is now. We're already seeing, in other parts of the globe, what hungry, desperate people are willing to do. This will continue and get worse.
Prepare yourselves.
Prepare your families.
Prepare your friends.
Consider things through to their logical conclusions.
Be ready for any and all eventualities.

Have a great day ;)  TF

8:30 pm EST UPDATE:
First of all, if you liked the column above or, if you're a new visitor to Turd's World, you might enjoy going back and reading the original "Preparing Accordingly", written back in December. Here's a link:

After looking over things this evening, I think I've found us a level to watch overnight and tomorrow. It would seem that the $29.80 level in silver is significant. Here, take a look:
On the plus side, silver fundos are strong, tomorrow is a Monday and we've got around $7B in POMO hitting the PDs at 11:00 am. So many days are POMO days anymore that we've almost come to take them for granted. However, with the expiration of last month's POMO calendar, tomorrow will be the first decent-sized POMO since last Wednesday. That may not seem long but its an eternity to the dim-witted, prop desk jockeys and their millisecond trading algos. All that fresh greenback should ensure that the PMs will be well-bid all day.
On the negative side, silver has run about 15% in the two weeks or so since "Turd's Bottom" so its due for a breather and momentum seems to be fading. If we do roll over a bit, I would expect silver to be very well bid near 28.50 and we should all use a selloff of that magnitude to add to positions.
Actually, that sounds like a bit of a win-win, so rest well and prepare for what should be another interesting and fun week in the precious metals. Turd out.


  1. No increase in Provident Pantry freeze dried #10 cans since last spring. How long can that last? re: Emergencie Essentials

  2. Yes. Actually before I started accumulating PMs, I accum'd food. Bought a little extra ever time to the grocery store. When I had 5 boxes of food, *then* I started PMs. Other stuff I got:

    1) Propane stove
    2) Propane
    3) Gas Generator
    4) Solar Generator
    5) Solar, turbine radio, flashlight recharger

    I'm sure there's more I'll add to the list. (Yes, I know firearms. I go back & forth. Never had em around the house. Not sure I want them)

  3. If you believe the things you listed are necessary then you must acknowledge the possibility of having to defend then from an armed intruder who has none of these things or scruples either.

  4. Hey Turd,

    What are you and your family doing to "prepare accordingly" other than the PM side of things?


  5. Hey Edward,
    Where are you getting your solar generator and gas generators from? link? Also, any recommendations on water filters? Thanks!

  6. Anyone here read John Mauldins "Out of the box" free newsletter? Very relevent stuff to this thread. Here is his article from today and it speaks to everything Turd has alluded to here:

  7. I'm not qualified to judge, but Mish Shedlock recently posted that there's no such thing as cost-push inflation.

  8. Oh Mish, Mish, Mish. I wish you and Prechter,and Stoneleigh would just go off to your imaginary deflationary hell and leave the rest of us alone to deal with reality.

  9. Sorry, but I got no patience for deflationists anymore.

  10. Deflation plus rising commodity prices is not really inflation. People will have to eat more and more cheaply -- no more convenience foods, restaurants, frozen dinners, prepared foods. Cheap generics will be the order of the day.

  11. TF,
    This thread is so timely. I am very much looking forward to reading here what others are doing to prepare. I feel like I'm playing a mad game of catch-up in that I only started preparing with foodstuffs and pm's last Fall. But then I just stop and think..Ok, I'm doing the best I can and I'm doing fine because at least I'm doing SOMEthing and that's more than alot of people are doing at this point. I tried to even get extended family members on board with me over the holidays because some of them have much better storage areas than I basement, celler.. but to no avail. I was either ignored and the subject was abruptly changed or I was met with a few cryptic words of doubt that what I was saying could possibly ever happen. So, I decided to push forward on my own. And then..a TERRIFIC thing happened last month right after the holidays. One of my local grocery stores decided to move a few miles down the road to a new building and in order to liquidate all food they had a 30% off sale for the first week and then a 60% off sale the 2nd week before the move. I must have spent $4K (at least) on food and non-perishables.

    I got a food saver vacuum packaging thingy and a canner and related supplies as a gift for Christmas. I have been madly packaging more rice and beans than I ever hope we have to eat in the future ever since that big sale. I stocked up on all kinds of canned fruits and veggies and this Spring/Summer I will visit the local farmers to can my own produce with my new canning toys from Xmas.

    Now, I find myself buying extras as I go for the weekly shopping trip ..just to shore up my supplies. I don't feel like I've done nearly enough yet however. Part of that feeling is my own personal belief that not only do I need to help protect me and my family.. but I want to be in a position to be able to help others when/if the day arrives that we have more hungry around us than we know what to do with. I just don't think I can watch people that I know (or don't know) go hungry. I want to be in a position to help or even to be able to barter for our own needs if these times arrive. I firmly believe it will take as many of us as possible who have prepared to reach out a helping hand to pull others in the boat with us so that we can restore and rebuild this great country. ***THIS POST IS TOO LONG.. CONTINUED..

  12. ***CONTINUED
    I know this is long, but one last thing to say here. Our church has several acres of land that we have been debating about what type of new ministry building we want to put on that land. ..Do we build a gym?..Do we build some other type of outreach facility?.. ..I was THRILLED when it was proposed and announced recently that on those acres that we have and own as a church..we are going to plant a great big ol gargantuan GARDEN. We are going to work as a group to establish a community outreach in the way of growing and producing and providing food to ours and surrounding communities! My family is so looking forward to being involved. We will not charge for this food. It will be supported solely through the work of the people who care enough to join us in providing this outreach to fellow citizens and through the grace of God to keep it going. Do you hear that Uncle Sam?..BACK OFF. ..I bought a bunch of non-GMO seeds to contribute. We, at least are trying as a community to prepare and to help others who just don't know or won't listen....yet. ...I have to note here that it is also my personal belief that you don't just supply endless charity without the expectation that those on the receiving end contribute back in some way. That's what's wrong with all of our government gimme programs to begin with. The endless stream of 'charity' (read: other people's tax money) robs people of their self esteem and belief in themselves that they can accomplish something on their own. That's why governments aren't the answer to charity. That's why it WORKS better at the local level. You need food..'s some! Go, eat and feed your family. ..Now, come back and pull weeds in our garden!

    Lastly, the things I'm not so prepared in are the things like the cooking stove, radio/communication type stuff, dog foods (YIKES!), and medicines. ....Probably ammo too but I'm going to have to push my husband on that one. He keeps meaning to but works a thousand hours a week. ..Can any of you here recommend what I would need for a way to cook.. ?? ..for if the s does htf ?

    Oh.. ..and water.. I need water.. ..Been looking at this site: ..Thinking of that 55 gal barrel or the cube boxes with the mylar bags..

  13. I have about 40K in PM, food for 12 mos, a hand gun and shot gun, a berkey filter and other such 'camping' material(stove etc.). The internal debate I am having now is to save for a rifle, or put the $1500 or so into minors. We are on a very limited budget. Any suggestions?

  14. I think decision #1 is whether to flee or hunker down when TSHTF. We're in a small, rural community and have several small children, six months worth of food, nearby running water and physical PM's, so we'll definitely hunker down.

    Rick is right, though. Defending the hoard will be essential.

    What spooks me, though, is this thought: What do you do when your sister and her family show up on your doorstop hungry? Your neighbor? Your son's teacher? A young child from down the street?

    Who gets the handout -- and who talks to the hand?

  15. Here's a contrary opinion that uses TA to predict lower food prices. As you might imagine, I think this analysis is utterly useless.

  16. I gotta say Ginger, your posts are becoming must reading on this blog for me. Keep 'em coming.

    How about some shelf space for a food pantry in that new church? Just a thought.

  17. Mish's latest on gold was appallingly bad, and I told him so. He regularly bashs GATA, Sinclair and others. He is way off the mark.

    BTW, anyone use Monex before around here? I friend of mine wants to buy silver from them, and I've never used them. Are they any good or should they be avoided?

    Bay of Pigs

  18. Tim,
    I just got a Berkey filter too. Love it.

    I would go with the miners. But that's just me because you have the guns covered imo.

  19. @bay - I bought 100 oz of silver eagles from them back in 2007. When I tried to do it again, they tried to talk me into a leveraged account. When I said I was interested, they told me they weren't really into selling just physical, so I told them fine and went to Gainesville Coins for my next purchase.

  20. @bay - correction, when I said I was NOT interested in the leveraged account, they blew me off.

  21. Oh gosh, Eric.. thank you! Been hanging on your posts for weeks now and have learned aLOT. ;)

    The pantry is an excellent idea ..and a must have. We are only in the beginning stages of planning this ..although it is moving right along. We actually had the ground breaking ceremony this morning ..complete with the big old donated tractor to break the ground with! ..It's a reality and we are getting ready to get it in gear. I haven't heard what is planned yet for storage as I have not been at every meeting. But it is a great question for me to ask because it will be a necessity!

    Some other things I've decided to start 'collecting' this coming week that I think we (or at least me) easily overlook:

    -The next few sizes up of clothing for the kids
    -First Aid Kit
    -Boards (yes, to board up the house if needed)
    -Stuff like paper towels, toilet paper (although fiat may work for this), garbage bags, toothpaste, lotions, shampoo, soap any type of toiletry you use regularly
    -Cleaning supplies
    -Haircolor :]

  22. I do a little blog for preparining cheap and have links to some folks that have very good info.
    It may help someone starting out.

  23. @tim

    Berkeys are great. Still on my first two black filters after 16 months. I use daily. You need at least one long shooter. Handguns, shotguns are last line of defense or final protective fires if you prefer. You need some standoff capability. Around here max is about 300 meters. too many woods. I prefer SKS or AK47 or both. 7.62 x 39 is adequate, affordable, and dependable as are the rifles. Only problem with miners, counter-party risk with anything paper. Just my hemble opinions. PS. Model 1951 military stove if you are in cold climes. About $100 and will burn anything and nice top for cooking.

  24. Large stores of ammo are very important. Not only can a lot of rds be fired in a hurry but ammo is very valuable for barter. I once read about a citizen of Bosnia who said that no one with extra ammo ever went without dinner. [word verification "headme"]

  25. @ginger

    Don't forget the supplements and vitamins. Crucial. Grab a couple of books about herbal medicine and plan accordingly. Aspirin, cheap booze/tobacco for trading. For the price of a silver eagle you can buy about 2 lbs of cheap pipe tobacco. Smokers wont care.

  26. Must admit, at this point our preps are probably more suited to withstanding a 3 day ice storm than a lenthy dark ages, and pointing out my inadequacies in not my strong point, but here goes:

    There's a heck of a lot of food that would require little or no cooking in the cupboard and a downstairs pantry.

    If you scrounge our basement you'll find two old Coleman camping stoves, one propane and one white gas, and you'll find some fuel. Oh, and maybe three lanterns. They are all in working order.

    You will find some guns and ammo. Mostly old pheasant hunting stuff, but lethal enough in a pinch.

    There are 3 decent space heaters somewhere around here.

    There's a shitpile of physical gold and silver that I'm hoping will stand in for all the stuff that I am obviously missing. A fair chunk of it is 90% silver coin.

    Making no plans whatsoever to bug out to the boonies. Even if water and power are iffy, I still feel like I'm better off with 4 walls and a roof than sitting in a tent, in the woods, in the rain and snow. Those alone are probably real fightin' words to the true survivalist contingent, but hey there it is.

    Oh, and Ginger, my first date was with a girl named Ginger, so I'm pretty much at your mercy anyway! ;)

  27. Stuff like paper towels, toilet paper (although fiat may work for this),


  28. @ginger

    Darn. Lots of candles. Hurricane lamps, extra wicks, lots of lamp oil. Walkie-talkies. Booby traps (FM manuals) (trip flares). a geat place in tenn. called pyro creations.

  29. I read somewhere someone asked a doctor what he would take with him to deserted island. He said aspirin. Truly a miracle drug for all the things it can do. No chance in hell it would ever get approved by the FDA nowadays.

  30. There's a Red Cross store next to where I work. Theta' where I got the crank/solar radio, flashlight, rechargers (diff items). They have an online store.

    The battery-based solar generator I got online somewhere -- google "solar generators". Basically it's a solar panel + Lead Acid Battery + panel for using AC/DC, recharging, current meter, etc... I keep it always plugged in and gtg. I got a gas-powered generator just at nearby HW store.

    I'm *really* on the fence with guns. I've been shooting. But, I've never had one in the house. I really don't want one in the house and I'm generally very anti-violence. Still, if things get out of hand, I can see the usefulness of having one. I guess I'm not yet >50% sure that it will end violently everywhere. I hold a certain amount of belief that having a gun can attract the situation where it wants to be used.... call me crazy... but I kind of think that....

  31. Eric...In shtf situation, for awhile at least, there will probably be no basic food stuffs available in any form of currency. As a matter of fact food will be "currency" imho. When chain of supply breaks down food will be gone from store shelves day 1.

  32. cynicalsam,
    Vitamins! ..Totally did not think of that. Excellent advice and adding to my list. I have the candles covered ..although I didn't think of that either. Somewhat of a candle collector over here. ...You guys that have been planning and collecting for a long time have it all over us who are scrambling as I have to spread it out because of the cost. ..herbal meds book is great advice too. ...What do you think of colloidal silver? ..Been reading alot about that lately and have been contemplating....

    But you didn't MARRY the Ginger that you dated.. lol. My brother in law's first wife was a Ginger. She was a nightmare for him and when I first met him he was somewhat suspicioius of me because of her. LOL.

    My list is really getting some updating because of this thread.. thank you so much, Turd..and everyone.

  33. For PMs look at I am not affiliated with them but they have a good rep.

  34. Oh yes other things I've acquired:

    o Wood burning stove -- this is a small item meant for survival. Very efficient at cooking with a small amount of wood.

    o Spare gas containers I got 5x5 gals filled with 91 unleaded.

    o Lots of flashlights and batteries. I also have a couple great NiCd, NiCa, LiPo charges when I was into R/C heli flying.

    o Oh yeah finally PMs. For personal possession I've been getting wide variety of gold and silver: Maples. Eagles, Kruggerands,Soverigns, Francs and bars and rounds from 1gm up to 5 Oz.

  35. A firearm,ammo and the familiarity to be able to use it is necessary to maintain our freedoms. A well-equipped Militia is necessary for a State to remain secure and free! Now as well as when tshtf.

  36. This blog has all you could want for prep ideas. Anything from emergency medicine to bullet resistant vests to seeds etc.

    Can't say I know anything about Monex, I found Provident Metals about five or six months ago and haven't left. They seem to be the cheapest for shipping the amounts I buy <100 of AG,AU. A tip if you go through them choose the pay by check option, then deposit from your bank account to theirs, saves you the 2.7% fee for credit cards/paypal markup and you don't have to wait for a check to clear for them to ship. (I'm not really worried about a paper trail myself).
    Moving on, just wanted to say thanks to the Turd and everyone else I've learned more about finance here and the hedge then the last 4 years of college(Business major, graduation this spring, just in time I know, the irony isn't lost :) Anyway scrounged up some dough and opened a trading account(I would consider my prep to be in good shape just not enough pm's :) and I look forward to asking you guy's/gal's lot's of dumb questions.

  37. This is all so apocalyptic. I have a reverse osmosis water system so I guess I'm ok for water. And while I can imagine a possible hyper inflation, I just can't see a Mad Max type United States. It's just too scary to believe. The government is totally screwed budget-wise now but I can't believe they'd let anarchy spread in the U.S. like believed here. It'll be bad but not apocalyptical violence and famine. JMHO.

  38. "toilet paper"

    Ever heard of water?

  39. Eric,

    re: medicines -- if anyone you know is a diabetic, you need to acquire insulin and you need to understand a little about how to store insulin.

    other meds: basic penicillin, a supply of tamiflu may be lifesaving, and nitroglycerin if anyone has heart troubles. surprisingly, medications for dogs/horses can often (not always) double in a pinch for humans. Talk to local vet. Also, vets are used to doing minor surgery/first aid without all the technology human docs need.

    question for the turd: what do you think of cotton? How would you play a call option on cotton -- is there an ETF type instrument?

  40. Turd,

    Just a thought. Remember what happened to the hogs during great depression 1. Corn is king, and WTF is up with these nitwit pols and their short-sighted and stupid Bio-fuel insanity.

    @ edward

    Long gun, shotgun, handgun. 6" ID PVC 36- 42" in length with sealing end caps, dessicant bags and a shovel. Just remember where you bury it. Guns rarely drop in value and only increse as times get worse. Drather have and not need than.....

  41. a.a. The U.S. doesn't have to go Mad Max for someone to rob you. That can happen tonight.

  42. Here in the UK there is little to no survival
    preparations going on.Gun use is growing in
    some inner city areas but much rarer than over the pond. I do believe that the UK is tied to the waist economically with the U.S. , so if
    things deteriorate quickly in the U.S. 99%
    of folk over here will be unprepared totally.

  43. One more thing. For those of you hesitant about firearms you really shouldn't be(insert cliche but really it is better to have one and not need it.....). It's all about responsibility just like anything else. If you want to learn how to shoot and handle etc. Look into IDPA clubs in your area. It's a shooting discipline/sport but the philosophy is shooting stock guns from concealment. It's a blast to shoot pop up targets and you learn how to id targets under pressure (slight as it is, it's a big step up from plinking). The range I go to charges 10 bucks, you don't have to be a member, happens once a month, just buy a couple of extra magazines and your good to go.

  44. My Brother-In_law lives within a 15 min drive. He used to live in Co in the Mtns and would shoot from his back porch. Loaded his own ammo. I'm *pretty* sure he has a good sized gun stash. If it came to it, I'm pretty sure a little gold would get me some protection. :) In a pinch I could get a gun. Still, I'm heavily considering taking the Handgun Safety Test to get the Ca Cert and just buy one. Its one of the things I'm muddling over these days.

  45. @aa

    A good read

    Hard Times, An Oral History of the Great Depression by Studs Terkel 1970

    Not dry econ talk. Real people who lived thru it from all walks of life and how they coped. Not Mad Max, real life. I highly recommend.

  46. Turd,

    Saw the posting on the other site. I think that this is your first published report there. Either way, congratulations!

  47. Anyone has any experience/recommendation on solar generators. I need a way to recharge my electronics (batteries, radio, cell phones, laptops, etc) Thanks in advance!

  48. sorry for asking again, most instructions on how to build a power gen is pretty confusing. Are there any good kits out there?

  49. A prepared and well armed citizenry lessons severity of anarchy not increases it. I trust no one to store my PM's and wouldn't trust myself if I wasn't well armed. Food is king during shtf,PM's are king after shtf,firearms to protect both.

  50. Rick. I know you can be robbed any time. I just don't see society breaking down into such chaos. Tough times, yeah. Maybe very tough....As inept as the government is, I do think they'll have some options to avoid armaggeddon.... oh, and I do own a .357 magnum. I live in a small gated community so we could band together if necessary. Supermarkets and home depots, lowes etc. are all very close. I just can't see it getting THAT bad.

  51. turd! Great commentary for a Sunday to sit and ponder; then take action! Continued action for some of us!! The great depression II! About to be poured out upon us commoners, as a tsunami; will consists of deflation and inflation!! Everything you need to dump/sell for the survival stuff goes down!! Everyone dumping/selling unnecessary assets! Everything you need to subsist, goes through the roof as more dollars chasing necessities!! Great depressions anywhere, are a compound in one of both deflation & inflation!! To get ahead of the great depression II! Sell assets you don't need now and buy assets you will need to survive; which all need to survive! Simple as that!! Common sense, for common people who have intelligence enough to think for themselves; regardless of a government which has lost it's pure essence!! Teaching people correct principles, that they may govern their individual lives!! Nothing but a giant cluster flock of confusion! As government, by the leaders, for the leaders, are the authors of upcoming coast to roast; confusion!! The potentates of the CONgress/SINate, have the self destructive motto of, all for one means more for me!! Every person leap frogging one another for power, gain, and profit at the expense of, we the people!! Can't stop that, but you can prepare for the natural consequence of such idiots!! I know the CONgress/SINate are not complete idiots, as too many parts of the disaster coming upon us are missing! Soon we'll have complete idiots! Along with a complete U.S. economic disaster! It's certain as night follows day and idiots run our country!!

  52. @Tim 11:11am

    Tim, what you purchase should be a reflection of how bad do you think it will get.

    Personally, I expect food riots on Main st USA as food becomes more expensive, at least until martial law is declared and enforced. A handgun is a short range self defense weapon. A rifle can be used at longer ranges, far more accurately, has greater stopping power, and can be used to hunt to provide food. Ask yourself this: what good will the minors do you if you don't make it through to the other side of the melt down? IF they went to the moon, but you or one of your family dies from lack of food or security, would you consider it worth it? Now if you don't think it will get that bad, then it makes more sense to go with the minors. So, what do you think will happen, or potentially happen?

    Just my 2 cents, about what it is worth. You have to decide for yourself depending on what you expect to happen, or think could happen, where you are at. Safety first in my own opinion.

  53. Fascinating how gold and silver bugs, almost without exception, seem to be in firearms. Well I'm the exception. Back to food and inflation. Do you realize, that thanks to the members of Congress you all elect, we are pouring enough corn into our gas tanks with every fill to feed the hungry of the world? This is frigging unconscionable. Then Mish and inflation - why do we only have two choices, according to people like him, we are either in inflation or deflation? Bull! Both are clearly going on at the same time. Houses, commercial real estate and fiat currencies, are deflating fast. On the other hand, precious metals, base metals, commodities of all sorts and foodstuffs, are inflating real fast. So there you have it, we have BOTH inflation and deflation going on at the same time.

  54. @Forever Faithful

    You asked about solar power. Check out harborfreight ( . ) com. They have been having some sales on some of their bigger solar panel kits. Get a couple just in case, and some deep cycle batteries to store the power in for night use.

  55. Wouldn't it make sense if at some point speculation in soft commodities becomes more tightly regulated which would lead to a money outflow of soft commodities and thus an increasing money inflow into hard (and shiny) commodities?

    I guess (almost) nobody here in the Netherlands is aware of what is really going on. We are so used to our virtual wealth it's just sick! Our extremely overpriced housing-market is the most regulated one in the world. It has stagnated since 2007 and it is just a matter of time before it will finally collapse. What is scary to me is the fact that over here everything could potentially collapse at the same time...

  56. -- we have BOTH inflation and deflation going on at the same time.

    AKA stagflation

  57. While I am happy to buy into the connection between QE and rising prices of commodities, I'm not totally convinced.

    Ok, the freshly printed money has to go somewhere and those who hold it will put it where it will give best return vs risk, so its not rocket science to work out that this additional demand creates rising prices.

    Where I'm not convinced, is that if this flow of funny money is purely speculative then we are surely looking at a bubble and at some point reality will cause prices to fall and overshoot to the low side, exactly as we saw with oil in 2008.

    A greater concern must be the recent poor harvests and consequent grain shortages, exacerbated by the crazy scheme in the US where they subsidize corn for ethanol production and actually use more than a litre of dino juice to produce a litre of ethanol.

    I think Mish's narrow definition of deflation is unrealistic and that he has dug himself a hole from which his ego cannot escape.

    Stanleigh's argument is simply that as we all have less to spend through paying off debt underemployment, unemployment, tying it up in barbarous relics etc then prices have to fall in order to sell things.

    I reckon it comes down to essentials vs non essentials and even this is hard to nail down.

    Good job I'm not an economist then (-;

    Anyway Ive been into food, water, shelter, warmth and health, as targeted essentials for a couple of years and cheerfully admit to some stockpiling for the disappointing Y2K bug. It costs almost nothing to carry a bigger amount of food as it all gets eaten in the end.
    I consider a 90 day supply to be enough to get us through a supply shock and my biggest worry is how many I have to try and get through such a period.
    Could you tell lifelong friends or good neighbours to fuck off when they are dying for want of food and you have food ?

    Been following Chris Martenson for almost as long as his crash course has been out there -

    Exactly what is now under discussion with a practical approach to increase your resilience by doing little things to start with and gradually building up to full self sufficiency.

    Regarding guns, here in the UK they are not easily available and my thinking is to keep the main food stash hidden and offer the desperate mother ( who will risk all to feed her children) something from your meagre cupboard ...


  58. a.a. "As inept as the government is,I do think they'll have some options to avoid Armageddon." That's probably what people in New Orleans thought. They were quick to disarm law abiding citizens and leave them defenseless though.

  59. FOFOA put it nicely:
    Deflationists are people studying the current laws, dynamics, and make valid conclusions, but they forget about the political will that will bent the rules where they want to.

    On another subject, miners:
    Check CMM, Century Mining. They are about to become a 100k oz gold producer in a few months, and they have only a $250m market cap. The depressed price is due to prior difficulties on previous years.

  60. Firearms Refresher Course

    1. "Those who hammer their guns into plows will plow for those who do not."

    2. "Those who trade liberty for security have neither." ?~ John

    3. Free men do not ask permission to bear arms.

    4. An armed man is a citizen. An unarmed man is a subject.

    5. Only a government that is afraid of its citizens tries to control them.

    6. Gun control is not about guns; it's about control.

    7. You only have the rights you are willing to fight for.

    8. Know guns, know peace, know safety. No guns, no peace, no safety.

    9. You don't shoot to kill; you shoot to stay alive.

    10. Assault is a behavior, not a device.

    11. 64,999,987 firearms owners killed no one

    12. The United States Constitution (c) 1791. All Rights Reserved.

    13. The Second Amendment is in place in case the politicians ignore the others.

    14. What part of 'shall not be infringed' do you NOT understand?

    15. Guns have only two enemies; rust and politicians.

    16. When you remove the people's right to bear arms, you create slaves.

    17. The American Revolution would never have happened with gun control.

    18. Check one! Free Slave

  61. What is the chance of heating gas being cut off
    in colder climates like the UK ? How to heat a house without solid fuel infrastructure ?
    Things werent as bad as some think in the great depression. This link may surprise the doommongers -

  62. @rb in UK

    Valid thoughts, though, one must take into consideration the impact of weather. Fires in Russia/Ukraine, WTF in Australia, cold kills in Florida and Mexico, droughts in China/India, Chinese wanting 9x normal wheat imports NOW. Its always more than just dumbass econ 101 stuff.

    PS How are your laws concerning wrist rockets/sling shots. Some on the market that can kill at up to 200 meters with .50 bearings and fiber optic sights, oh, and silently. Just a thought. Got marbles?

  63. Re: Solar Generators. Basically I got something like this model from Xantrex:

    Basically what you want is a big-assed battery with the necessary invertors/converters/plugs/dials/etc that will power what you might want.

    You'd then hook up a solar panel to it for recharge -- some companies will sell something like this as a solar backup "kit".

    The "power center" is a component. I keep mine always plugged in as it recharges from house current. It will also recharge from a solar panel. I got this is a whole kit.

  64. afrum...I agree with you on everything you wrote but one. We aren't being led by idiots but rather the Sons of Satan!

  65. Right! More government regulation; mutation of cancer killing the host!! If the government controlled the desert sands; we'd not have any! Biggest parasitical waste grinding upon the face of we the people!! Other than that, the dying host of we the people, has a good prognosis of surviving; always by those killing it!! Body bags a good future investment!

  66. Some areas will do better than others. Climate, water and other natural resources, population density, etc., are important factors to consider in deciding where to locate -- if you have the flexibility to relocate, as I did when I saw all this coming some years ago. But I think the most important consideration is community.

    If you can find or build a good community, you may actually prosper instead of merely survive. There are are many initiatives toward sustainable communities with local agriculture, manufacturing and currency. The combination of amazing new technologies and a culture of sharing which leads to abundance and peace rather than scarcity and conflict, can give the years ahead a flavor of challenge, excitement and promise rather than collapse, decay and strife.

    It all depends on where you are and whom you're with. Some areas will decay while others will thrive. If you can't relocate, try to join or start an initiative where you are.

    A few examples of initiatives, among many:

    The future of money, a new lens for wealth:

    Open source ecology:

    One of my favorite projects, the Arduino project, created an open source controller used in many other projects:

    Also check out "Fab Labs" and "3-D printers".

  67. Yup! Rick! Those who would bring us down to their own misery! Let's call them miserable people who would like us all to be miserable like unto themselves!! Investigate a fraudster politician and find nothing but evil coming to us as an angel of light; wolves in sheep clothing!! Not certain how we the people allowed our current government to trample our fore fathers constitution into the dust! I suppose we just got lulled into some carnal security government offered and now realize there's not a promised social security program the politicians can deliver!! Too bad! I'm so sad! For those who have trusted government and not self prepared for their own security as a free people!!

  68. A few quick thoughts:

    Yes, I know you are right about food. I said my preps were inadequate. Also, been meaning to get some 00 Buckshot for the 12 ga., but no interest in handguns or rifles. Gotta draw the line somewhere. Actually I sold all my rifles years ago.

    re: woodstove
    Forgot to say we do have a fireplace and about a cord of wood. Downside is it's horribly inefficent. But it's old and due for an upgrade soon. New one will be super efficient and some degree of cooktop capability.

    re: Monex
    I agree. Stay away. There are so many better choices. Ones that won't pressure you to do things you don't understand.

    Not diabetic yet, but working on it! lol

    UK turd...
    I agree. UK is screwed. Though the whole friggin island is pretty much made of coal isn't it? So you got that going for you.

    We love dumb questions! The dumber the better as it gives the rest of us average Joes a chance to look smart!

    re:guns in general
    I have a buddy that is always lamenting that he sold his roll of gold Eagles a long time ago at a loss. But in recent years he has been collecting quality firearms and those things never go down in value either.

    Oh, one last thing. I can't bring myself to start in on copper pennies or nickels. Silver itself is borderline crazy in terms of the size and weight involved in having any significant store of value. Pennies and nickels are just over the top. Gold is my baby, baby. You can hold your life savings in your pants pockets if need be.

  69. I'm an agnostic on this subject but I'm curious as to what year folks here think that this armaggeddon will occur. 2013?

  70. Bloomberg's Pesek new column "Roubini’s Next Crisis Is Scary Food for Thought"

  71. @ Ginger

    I'm really just getting started on a hoard as well. Someone mentioned that if you have girls in the house that Tampons are a MUST !!

  72. aurum
    I got no timeline. Don't believe in Mayan calendars, Nostradamus, or biblical hoo ha. I feel like I know what road we are on, just don't know when we get there.

  73. aurum
    Hope we never get there, and all these preps are for nuthin'. But it don't seem bloody likely.

    It's like your homeowners insurance. You don't sit around hoping your house burns down just so you get your money's worth.

  74. a.a. Watch the 10yr note. Anywhere north of 4.5%, IMHO, is approaching high danger zone for bond ergo FRN collapse.

  75. Yeah Eric. I hope it doesn't happen either. I hate seeing people in misery.

  76. Rick. I agree. the 10 year gets to 4.5% that's interest Bernank can't afford. When I think of Bernank I think of the old I love Lucy episode where she's on the candy conveyor line. The candy is coming so fast, her eyes bug out and she's putting most of the candy in her mouth and pockets instead of wrapping them. She looks so efficient her boss yells "Speed er up!!!"..That's Ben and his printing of money analogy right there. He thinks he's so efficient now, let's see the look on his face when he has to Speed her up....

  77. Jimi: Yes, that is my first "guest post". I must admit to feeling honored and somewhat sheepish about it. Glad to reach such a wide audience.

  78. Also remember that some of the largest credit default swaps are written on interest rates. Should The Bernank lost control of this beast, it's over:

  79. a.a. I remember that episode well. I want to see how he justifies Qe to infinity when Ron Paul asks about exploding interest rates.

  80. To my American friends (I'm assuming majority of the comments are from Americans):

    You seem to be preparing for Mad Max-like conditions by stocking up on food and guns. But you represent maybe 1% or 2% of your population. Are you really going to hole yourself up and fight the 98% of the rest when Armageddon happens?

  81. What will happen? More than likely something we haven't thought of. I never imagined ahead of time that all the banks in the country (World?)would go broke just because a lot of people stopped paying their mortgages. One thing to consider: If things go bad you don't want the nasty people who aren't prepared to know that you have the "stuff" they need.

  82. These two posts have been great this weekend. But I wouldn't really be interested in a site that just did this 24/7. Starting to look forward to our regularly scheduled programming come Monday morning.

  83. @turdle gg

    My guess more like 10%. Attrition will take care of vast majority, so numbers will flatten. Not saying mad max 100%, more like maybe 25% chance. But must prepare, old Boy Scout.

  84. @eric

    Agreed. Can become tedious after a while. Come on Monday.

  85. Wow Turd ..CONGRATS on the guest post! Much Deserved and the start of many I'm sure!

    Adventures in Self Reliance.. I am reading through your blog. Thank you for pointing it out. It is a rich resource and I am learning from you..

    ...Same thing for the site that you mentioned, Scott. I am loving this thread as it is so timely for me as I have been worrying about preparing.

    I loved your info about potentially using horse/animal medications in a pinch. Years ago I used some 'horse linament' on a sore back (pulled muscle) and I could not BELIEVE the difference it made. It didn't particularly SMELL very good ..just a strong odor.. but it worked amazingly. I have wondered ever since why some of these aids for animals aren't tested or approved for human use. (Don't tell me if it's because I exposed myself to some kind of awful cancer by using it) :[

    Ok, Eric.. I already got that big mega-bottle of plain aspirin that you mentioned ..on my last shopping spree. At the time I wasn't even sure why I was buying it.. but it just felt like I should for some reason. BTW...AND GET THIS... ...uh.. ..I won't ask you your last name here because I wouldn't want to state mine on a public blog necessarily.. but I just got back from a late lunch with my family and we were talking about this thread and all the things we are doing to prepare.. I got to thinking about your comment about dating a girl named 'Ginger'.. ..and ... uh.. .it got me to thinking back ..and remembering.. ..and ..I swear to you.. I kid you not. ...the first date I ever had was with a boy named 'Eric'. ....I nearly spit out my lemon water when I thought back and realized that.. LOLOLOL. ....Anyway.. just thought it was funny and worth mentioning only because it's weird in a ..well, funny and weird sort of way. LOL. ..............................your last name doesn't start with 'D' does it?? ...and you didn't take this 'Ginger' ice skating did you? lolol. :O (and I swear I'm not intending to flirt with you!!!.. lol's just weird!)


  86. We are in overall DEFLATION in ASSETS...with staglation beginning to drain the life out of the masses as essentials spike in will be ugly before the Kondratieff winter sets in in 2012-2015...these cycles are supercycles and will not be denied as they complete the deflationary wipeout. Ben knows these cycles better than all of us and is desperately trying to inflate us out of the day of reckoning. He knows he will fail but he will deliver his promise to his masters in Europe. Make no mistake there is a day of reckoning coming in 2012...

  87. aurum,

    Personally, I think there's going to be a "triggerring event". I think there is some element of event manipulation. We see "our leaders" doing stupid, idiotic things all the time. Yet, are they *really* stupid people? Consider: they may by privvy to info us serfs aren't and make decisions upon info and forces we aren't even remotely aware of. Or, maybe they're just stupid. Who knows!? LOL.

    I think the best thing is to just stay informed. Keep an open mind. Listen to your intuition. Shut off the TV (I did this about 3 years ago)! You'll be ahead of the game if you do that. No one can really predict the future. Best you can get is odds.

  88. Mitchell,
    EXCELLENT advice for anyone with daughters, wives, sisters. ..These are JUST the kinds of things that we take for granted and tend to overlook in our prep efforts.

    Anyone on a limited budget (like me).. we now have the luxury of taking advantage of sales. Buy multiples of items when things are on a good sale. I get a surreal feeling sometimes walking around my Kroger aisles now. It SEEMS like everything is so plentiful. ..It won't always be that way if we are right about inflation.

  89. I've thought more along the lines of Peter Schiff, but I don't think Mish's opinions should be disregarded. He makes some good points. Here's an interview that I caught on Max Keiser's website. Btw, Mish is a big fan of gold.

  90. Ging
    Nope, not the guy (that's a relief actually). My Ginger actually married a buddy of mine ( I went to their wedding) and still lives here in our home town, but I don't see them much. On our first date, I ACTUALLY ran out of gas! Gawd, how stereotypical, but honestly I swear it was a complete accident. Mucho embarrassing. Not at some great makout spot either, but at a big friggin intersection. I wanted to die.

    If we keep this up, other commenters are going to say "Hey you two, keep it up and we will turn the hose on you!"

  91. Eric...I agree! There are plenty of blogs with chicken littles predicting the sky is falling.I hope the only man I ever shoot is Mr. Cardboardcutout! Freeze dried food isn't my favorite either. Asia opens in 21 mins.

  92. "Make no mistake there is a day of reckoning coming in 2012..."

    kliguy, that comment combined with your avatar scares me to death.

  93. Oh, yeah, and I must have missed something but what Turd guest post are we talking about? Link please.

  94. LOL Eric. LOL!

    you were as smooth as my Eric. ..I was very young.. he took me ice skating and then tried to kiss me on the doorstep. I turned and ran. ...So.. yeah! ...BIIIIIG RELIEF here. Hadn't thought of him in forever ..and ..I'd hate to have to hate you and leave this blog because of that past bad memory. lol.

    Back to your regularly scheduled END-OF-THE-WORLD discussion! :]

  95. Ginga make no mistake only refers to a well defined long cycle pattern that uses a set of complex mathematical analysis for prediction that over a long period of time has been quite accurate for a number of reasons. Bud Kress uses a slightly different set of caluculus on his Kress Cycles that I use too. Essentially 2012 is unavoidable and Ben knows it.... Bud Kress was used by Goldman as was his Protege Cliff can google Droke. As for doom and gloom. I prepare for some signigicant dislocations and some "carving of the fat" but I don't expect full blown chaos. No problem preparing for a lot of pain though. We will get through it all. gl

  96. kliguy,
    .. ..Huh?

    Just kidding. I read your blog daily as, I know what you are about and where you stand with what's to come. The mathematical analysis of it all is really fascinating.

  97. Bay - re Monex - I don't know about them. With the massive caveat that I'm talking about something that happened 30+ years ago, my dad bought a bag of junk silver from them, and found that more than a few pieces were slugs. Totally reasonable to think that management has changed since, but I would check what you buy upon its arrival.

  98. Biblical Armageddon! It's not the end of the world! End of the wicked!! Honest in heart inherit the earth! You still have a conscience and listen to it; you'll have enough light within to make your own way!! If you haven't a clue between what is right or wrong anymore; reprobates as many have become in these times, truth has a way of burning you up or consuming you entirely!! Especially when your only foundation for life is entirely built upon lies!! From what has been posted today it's merely the honest in heart which still feels for humankind!! Just the kind of people new millenniums are built upon! Here we go, ready or not!!

  99. Immred and Palmerjoe have some very good indepth understanding of the inner-workings of the system (they are the system).....they are both predicting severe deflation in 2012. Joe has been on target for the three years I've traded with him. And Immred is off the charts on his understanding of the system. Pick your poison Inflation deflation stagflation......SHTF in 2012.....choke and pukes can begin in late 2011.....but trade the QE its a sure thang......hehehe.....

  100. Inflation vs Deflation

    If you are talking about deflation in the sense that general standards of living in the West are on a downward side of a big fat cycle, then yes, deflation. If you are talking about the cleaning out of a big overleveraged debt upon debt house of cards, then yes, deflation.

    But if you are seriously going to claim that the buying power of an honest days labor, or a fistful of dead presidents is actually going to RISE, because nobody will have any, then that's where we part company.

    I'm talking about inflation in the sense that the same measure of food and energy will soon cost 2 or 3 fistfuls of dead presidents when it used to cost one. Or that the same measure of food and energy will cost 2 or 3 honest days work instead of 1.

    Don't give me textbook crap about money supply. Define money first, then we can have a conversation.

  101. kilguy. in your severe deflation scenario will the prices of PMs go with the price everything else deflating?

  102. Is Immred on here? I always read his SKF posts two, three times.

    His words always rang as an inherent truth. Which to me is a truth which doesn't need to be sold, only comprehended. Much like the PM view. Once you get it, that's it, you're in.

    Oh and Turd, congrats on the ZH guest post!

  103. As if truth wasn't enough burning to come!! EARTH-DIRECTED SOLAR FLARE: On Feb. 13th at 1738 UT, sunspot 1158 unleashed the strongest solar flare of the year so far, an M6.6-category blast. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded an intense flash of extreme ultraviolet radiation, circled below:

    Oh! I suppose there's other ways of burning also in our puny world; of puny petty minds; dog fighting over bones in our puny sandbox called earth!!!!

  104. Ginger, glad you like the site I hope it helps. I love the dollar stores for stocking up on meds, toothpaste, brushes and stuff

  105. How do you guys do these long posts? I spent half an hour drafting a (brilliant) one and lost it all when I tried to upload it Sigh.

    Okay, I try to reconstruct, but I will do it in shorter pieces.

    Turd, you really started somethin' today. As, usual, great info from the gang. I will see if I can contribute anything worthwhile.

    First of all, here's another source of info appropriate to this thread:

    I agree with Franny, we most likely won't run out of any food, just the food most people are used to eating. No more jumping in the car to drive through Mickey D's to fetch the family dinner (very normal now). But I give most people credit for being adaptable. They will figure out you can feed a family on rice and beans, even if it's not fun. The real problem, as Rick says, is the supply chain. Most people have never thought about just hw fragile it has become with all our 'just in time' logistics. Anyone who has lived in the Washington DC area when a snowstorm is approaching can tell how right he is that shelves can be emptied in a day! For that reason, the best thing we can do is try to convince as many people as possible that they need to have at least a small reserve to keep their family fed for at least a few weeks, so maybe there won't be general panic when the trucks don't run.

    As far as what is advisable, there's lots of good advice out there (and here on this board). Just think about how the wagon train people lived for 4-6 months on the trail. You can figure it out.


  106. wynter benton followers:
    the last posting from benton was on feb 9, right?
    Feb is now half over

  107. oldNavy,
    hit your copy and paste command just before you hit the post button. It will save your comment so that you have it right there to re-post in case the post doesn't go through.

    I've learned this the hard way. "/

  108. Oh, I see. TF was on ZH. Didn't notice since honestly I haven't hardly looked at ZH all weekend.

  109. MONEY:
    I would like to find a source for 1/2 and 1/4oz silver coins. I saw some on some website, but can't seem to find it again. Any help here?

    When fiat becomes worthless and silver is triple digits/oz, we may need something smaller to trade with. That's why someone might want those "junk bags" of pre-1964 US coins. I think it's not a bad idea.

    For Edward an others who just don't like the idea and don't want any, I sympathize. Despite being a career military man, I have never owner one. I always thought the most likely person to get was shot was me, or worse yet, someone I love.

    But I am revised my position on this. I refer you the afrum's post with the list, specifically #9. If and when the wheels come off, most people will pull together and deal with things in a cooperative way. Again we can see examples of this in previous disasters. However, the will be some who become predators. You may have to defend you life and you loved ones. My opinion is that a rifle is not as good as a shotgun, unless you are in an open area or want to use it for hunting as well. Shotguns don't require such good marksmanship under pressure, either.


  110. Ginger, you seem like a thrifty gal. One thing my Mom and I do is we cut out our coupons from the Sunday paper, then swap what's left. We like different stuff so we each usually end up with 2 of everything we want.

    Just Thought I'd Share

  111. Hi, a great site that talks a lot about taking care of yourself is:

    WONDERFUL site!!

    Personally, I've been stocking up on certain basics and have about 6 months of a few key items that I need for my special diet.
    This week, plan to buy enough to last for a couple of years of these items.

    Have explored a few of the food/survival sites and making a list...

    Also, a local CSA has finally opened here. We were getting out organic food at the co-op from ABQ, but now in Las Cruces we have our own CSA farm, in addition to the co-op network of local growers and a plot of their own! The two CSA's work together! The different climates allow for some flexibility in growing through the year--that is the plan. Plus they are selling other items, prepared organic things. If I volunteer to work a couple of hours a week, I will get paid in a share of the food! The bartering scenario will be working already!

  112. Re: GUNS...

    I've read that you can get cheap stun guns via the internet.
    The other day, I was thinking of a bow and arrow. I took both riflery and archery in college (last century! LOL!), however, I can't legally own a gun due to a medical issue. However, a bow and arrow might do the trick!~

  113. oldNavy
    The premiums on small size silver are just horrendous, if you can find them at all. I just go with the pre-64 coins. Recognized everywhere (in the US anyway).

    Here's some for you though, if you must:

  114. Eric,
    Thrift is my middle name:) But, moreso lately because I realize how much we have all taken for granted in this country and how much we stand to lose. ..Yeah, I'm with you. Just got the paper earlier today with that very thought in mind!

    I have not shopped with this site (mostly use gainesville coins) but I did notice that they have LOTS of silver bullion below the 1 oz. weight. They have 1/4 oz..1/2 oz ..and even bars measured in 5 & 10 gram weight. ...Looks interesting and I thought I might give them a try. ..I'm sure someone here has some experience with them.. ? ..

  115. Turd.....You little Stink-in-the-Grass!

    You've gone and created one fine blog ! I've been lurking since almost day one, but this thread finally got me off the dime to create an I.D. and post. Do us all a favor and just stick around no matter what.

    Turdlings ........ You are a fine gaggle of goldbugs and silvernuts. Intelligent, thoughtful and courteous. I'm honored to be associated here at last,

    To introduce......My gut feelings as a senior in H.S. (1964) were to save silver coins when I could afford it. I just knew bad 'poopies' (no offense) were on the far horizon. My German grandfather went through the Weimer inflation, so I know firsthand about that little experience. Made a lot in years past on PMs, but lost in wife(2) choices so have started again.

    I will post about my methods to catch back up in a hurry and to prepare in every way I am doing for our less than bright future in our beloved United States.
    God bless y'all

  116. Stagflation = When they make too many bucks and you find yourself without enough does.

  117. Northwest Territorial Mint has 1 oz. 1/4 divisible stagecoach silver rds. They will buy them back even when broken into quarters.

  118. Aurum 2012 IF we hit the supercycle deflation scenario gold and miners will take an initial hit but will recover before the general market as gold continues to benefit as a "safe haven. Miners become even more profitable with lowered costs of production during severe deflation....especially established miners with good reserves....but yes initially they take a hit.

    Chris.. Immred is a legend...I wish you knew his backround....just a great story...anyway he posts on my blog regularly in the can find him in this comment string from fridays

  119. Great article in Futures Magazine on the breakout in Silver:

  120. Hi all, first time post but a follower of TF since ZH days. I am an American citizen living in Germany for the last 15 years. I am also a former airborne Ranger and veteran of Panama and the first Gulf War. I have seen “mad max” situations and dysfunctional communities. “Prepare Accordingly” is an important theme, unfortunately most people will not do so. In fact, most people will be out of food in days when the shelves at grocery stores become empty. The best rule I can think of is “Do as the natives do”, and turning your house into a bunker with machine guns and proper fields of fire is not what needy natives will be doing. When do you sleep? Who protects your family while your out doing your business? Even in hyperinflations there will be jobs to go to. My advice, stand in the bread lines like every other sucker. You won’t be a target of theft or injury unless someone thinks you have something to hide or to protect. Organize your neighborhood. Buying houses in your own home town with rolls of gold and silver while everyone else is eating rats will probably piss off the masses. Use common sense and keep a low profile. A gun will always get you into more trouble than it will ever get you out of. Hopefully, we can avoid such circumstances.

  121. The USA made you the best fractional silver in pre-1965 coins. Lowest premium of all. So recognizable that even my relatives would know what they are.

    Best single firearm in my opinion is a medium length barrel stainless steel 357 revolver. Low maintenance, low corrosion, inexpensive, easy to hide or conceal. You can bury it in a zip lock. Come back in 5 years and take it out and shoot it.
    You can shoot and practice with cheap 38 ammo. You can shoot bird shot fairly accurately, and you can get someone's attention using 357 amo, even if they are on the other side of the door.

    If you don't like guns in the house you can easily take the cylinder out and hide it somewhere else, so it is only good as a hammer if not complete.

    You can reload the ammo yourself with nothing more than a small measure and a wooden mallet.

    ps- They don't make very good hammers so get one of those too.

  122. swiftboat and deadcat: Welcome to the party! Be sure to visit often.

  123. That being said, CZ 75 and a baseball bat named "Blythe".

    Disclosure: physical gold and silver, and microwave popcorn - cause this is gonna be a hell of a show...

  124. We all become reliant on the systems that sustain us. What if they fail? How will you cope?

    Anyone interested in improving their preparations for anything from electrical power loss to full-blown SHTF should visit

    The site owner has been into survival preparedness for decades.

    Also be sure to visit Chris Martenson's site and view the "Crash Course". The following link is the 45 minute version. If you like what you see he has hours online to help you prepare and it is free.

    The full "Crash Course":

    Prepare accordingly.

  125. oldNavy,
    This site has been listed by others on here and has what you are looking for:

    I haven't personally done business with them though because Gainesville Coins has the lowest total price at checkout. If I ever do decide I need to add anything smaller than 1oz bars/coins I will definitely be giving my business to MPM.

    Just want to thank you again for the awesome work you are doing with this blog! I can tell it's paying off because it seems like the comment sections under each post keep getting longer and longer with new names popping up daily. Definitely going to need that new site you've mentioned!

  126. Last segment of my long post. Sorry for the typos in the previous ones.


    In the Great Depression most Americans still did not live in cities. Many could grow their own food or had family who lived on a farm. This is so not the case now. Also, back then most people were engaged in some kind of essential trade or industry. Also not the case now. Most people make their living either directly or indirectly off of totally discretionary consumption. Big problem. We may or may not run out of food, but people may not be able to get it just the same.

    A couple of years ago I visited Johannesburg South Africa. It is not far from the border with Zimbabwe, a formerly prosperous country, the breadbasket of Africa, whose government became corrupt and refused to adapt. It printed fiat until it had a half life of only a few hours. People were all "millionaires who couldn't buy bread".

    South Africa looked more like the USA than any country I had ever visited. But, I knew that Jo'burg was known for a lot of crime. Sure enough the nice looking middle class gated neighborhoods had high walls all around and razor wire on top. I heard horrific tales about violent home invasions. The South Africans I talked to said it was mostly because of Zimbabweans coming across the border. Millionaires who couldn't buy bread.

    So I have seen it.

    As I mentioned before, I believe most Americans will pull together and cope well. But not all will.

    We all need to prepare accordingly, as Turd said. I also think we all need to get involved in the political process, especially this next election. We need to surface the real threats and get them into the political discourse. Ron Paul won the straw poll at CPAC last week, but that's a far cry from getting the nomination. I'm not saying he should, but I really would like to get him heard on the national stage.

    It's good to talk about these things amongst ourselves. I gain a lot from our threads here. However, we need to get more people to realize what's going on so maybe we can avoid, or at least mitigate the coming trauma.

    Done for today.

    Can't wait to see what the market has in store tomorrow! Ciao!

  127. A lot of good sites/blogs have been recommended by the Turd and followers, figured I'd add one to the list. Found this guy right around the same time I found Turd.

  128. I've updated this post. Please check it out.

  129. You folks are starting to wig me out a bit. All this preparedness talk is spooky. Let me ask this.... I realize nobody knows WHEN the shtf. However, what is the likelihood of this happening? 10%, 20%, 90%??? I don't have an understanding on the markets, currency issues, etc. I know I want silver/gold and a few months of food(just in case). But, you folks sound overwhelmingly sold on the fact that it will hit the fan. How certain are you, or is there a chance that we've got chicken littles on board? I do NOT mean that in a negative way. I want to know how serious and how swiftly I need to be making plans.

    Thanks for your time and have a great week, everyone. I really enjoy this little spot on the web. I check it daily....ok...ok.. I check it hourly!

  130. Patrick: I compare it to homeowners insurance.
    What is the likelihood that your house will be hit by lightning? Pretty frickin remote, right? However, by being at least a casual observer of the weather, you probably noticed that lightning does, occasionally, strike the ground near your home. Knowing this, if lightning struck your home and it burned to the ground but you had chocen NOT to have homeowners insurance, you'd probably feel like the stupidest mf-er on the face of the planet.
    Same holds here. Nobody hopes for disaster. We all hope for the best. However, if disaster strikes and I'm not prepared after all that I've learned, then I AM the stupidest mf-er on the face of the planet.

  131. Some gold mining related news...hopefully this doesn't become a trend!

  132. I realize that the gut reaction is to stock up on guns such that you can protect your stash of metals and food.

    But from a moral standpoint, I often wonder if it is better to go hungry than to kill 10 people that want to eat your food. 50? 100? Where do you draw the line? I don't know.

    Something to think about though.

  133. The main questions are:

    1) what are the odds the STHF?,

    2)If So what are the odds it will look like X, (or Y or Z and so on...)?

    3) At what odds do I do something to prepare?

    Everyone's going to have different answers to those questions. I'd guess most people here imagine fairly decent odds of a STHF scenario, but I don't think anyone knows what it will look like or how bad it will be yet. Doing nothing is always an option.

  134. Hey Patrick, to dovetail into what Turd said...I would say PM holders follow more of a philosophy rather than just a specific investment.

    To hold PMs is to be your own CB. Likewise, to hold food is to be your own store and to hold firearms is to be your own police. 911 is the number to report crimes not prevent them.

    Self-reliance is the theme.

    Kli, thanks for the link to your blog!

  135. Guys check out this FSN Sprott interview:

  136. Patrick...The national debt is unsustainable and will never be paid. Ergo at some point FRN's become worthless. Without means of payment chain of supply breaks down. No food in super markets mean millions begin to go hungry,then starve. Starving people are capable of terrible things.

  137. Said I was done for the night, but....

    Tyler, I for one do NOT want to shoot anyone and do not think it will ever come to that. However, when someone barges into your house and is intent on doing physical harm to you and your loved ones you may not be able to buy them off with anything. Period. In some of the stories I heard in South Africa, the homeowners were killed and then the house was searched. You will not be dealing with rational people.

    That said, I like Justin's post a ways back. Don't give people a reason to think you have anything they want. If you are hoarding something, keep mum about it, including your food, your silver, and your guns if you have any.

  138. @oldNavy - Quality Silver Bullion has 1/2 oz and 1 oz rounds that are divisible into 1/4 oz pieces.

  139. In the Sprott interview he mentions the "discussion around the march comex contracts."

  140. Someone said in a previous post ...either here or maybe over a ZH.. just what Justin said above.. you will definitely not want to stand out as someone who 'has' something. Have an old beat up car (not a problem for and don't spread the word about what you are storing. Even my kids don't know we have pm's because I don't want them to talk at school..even innocently as kids will do. They do know about the's all over the downstairs for the moment ..but they don't think it's a huge deal because I have just explained that we are trying to be better prepared for any emergency situation. We routinely go through hurricane watches/warnings here during that season so it's easily explained and rationalized for them. ...Whoever wrote that post about not showing what you have also suggested that when the shtf you will want to let your yard go and generally blend in with your neighbors as best you can.

    Scary, strange times. Let's all hope it doesn't come to all of this. But let's all keep preparing as if it will.

  141. Nicely said by all to my question. Thanks and I appreciate the thoughtful responses to my question. I do like the insurance comment and the 911 comment. It makes total sense. I'm drinking the kool-aid and really appreciate the professionalism you all have. Very positive. Have a good week.

  142. How many zombies would I kill? As many as I had too. Once I run out of bullets, then I bust out the kitana.

    I feel a moral obligation to protect my family. Otherwise I will join the ranks of the zombies.

    Reminds me of a quote from the dark knight.

    The Joker- " I'll show you when the chips are down these so called civilized people will eat each other".

    The mindless rabble will become amoral once hunger sets in. I am doing them a favor by dispatching them. I want someone to do the same for me, should I become a zombie.

  143. btw, start paying attention to the price of brent crude rather than WTI. WTI is irrelevant going forward.

  144. Holy Fucking Shit Ginger, let your yard go, what a great idea... what if that 3/6/9 month supply of food just doesn't quite get you through the shitstorm that's coming? If you have a yard, turn it into a garden ASAP, you might have 3 years to do it properly (if you're lucky)... get to know the people at your local farmers markets and begin to network (set up bartering and exchange networks)

  145. Turd...You opened quite a can of worms here today. The need to defend yourself and family against people who did not prepare for "The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment"is an undesirable scenario. But if even 10% do prepare we couldn't possibly take care of the other 90%. I pray that it doesn't come to pass but if TSHTF a lot of tough decisions will have to be made.

  146. I do think those with a family have an obligation to protect their children.

    More broadly, those who can also have an obligation to protect those who cannot protect themselves.

    I do not have children, so I can afford to go without firearms. I can certainly see why those that do feel the need to own. I have a lot of respect for those with families and can only imagine the sense of responsibility that must weigh on you, when you know the road we're heading down.

    We will learn a lot about the human condition in the next few years, but I'm still hopeful that we will be surprised by the goodness in humanity. If we don't believe in ourselves, who will?

  147. my feeling is that when the breakdown does occur there will be a 6 month to 1 year period of anarchy followed by either a totalitarian gov't or a local/regional feudal type system. either way preparations now will determine one's survival through the anarchy and one's ability to cope with the system later. anyway, i hope i'm wrong, i just have very little faith in most of the human race.

  148. @Tyler

    That is a good thought to close on for a Sunday night. Thanks.

    When it comes to the whole preparedness discussion, it always seems to give a lot of attention to guns. Again I like Justin's post probably the best. Be one of the folks, 98% of them will be doing the best they can to cope. Don't attract the attention of the the other 2%. IMHO the main thing we will find serves us the best is the PM. (and a few 50lb bags of rice).

    Take care, my friend. See you in the market tomorrow. :)

  149. Hi Everyone - this is my first post, but I'm an avid "lurker and learner" on the PMs front and have made significant investments there in the last year. On that note, Turd (and everyone else), you have helped me immensely and both made and saved me significant money. I'll be making a donation this week.

    On the topic of "prepping," I do have significant experience in that department and would like to share the following.

    First, I'm not a kook, but outside of communitites such as this, I just don't talk about it because it does sound kookie to the clueless. I think most people on this blog would agree that some form of economic reckoning/collapse is inevitable. The only question is "how bad will that reckoning/collapse be?" The Deficit Panel laid it out for everyone to see what needs to be done and what the consequences will be if significant, meaningful change isn't made soon. It is also equally clear that neither our elected officials nor the electorate have the backbone or stomach to do what is necessary... thus, some form of collapse will happen. You'd be a fool not to prepare for that and it doesn't mean that you have to run for the hills.

    That said, and I consider myself "fully prepared" at this point, here are the few books that I consider MUST reads and they cover all the topics and give you "how to's" as well.

    Book 1: for me, this is THE definitive book out there right now to get one started. It is John Wesley Rawles' "How to Survive the End of the World as We Know It: Tactics, Techniques, and Technologies for Uncertain Times." He is a bit religious for me at times, but it in no way takes away from everything else he has to say. His book on retreats and relocation is good to if you take it to that level. Here is the Amazon link to the book:

    Rawles also has an excellent blog that is a wealth of information:

    Book 2: Is really a compilation of all of Mel Tappan's magazine articles called "Tappan on Survival", but a good companion/alternate to Rawles. Here is the Amazon link:

    Again, without getting to nutty, I cannot recommend Rawles' book more strongly. His novel is what got my wife bought in to this thinking. No, we aren't going to run to Idaho. But do we have everything we need and a plan? You bet.

    Let me know if you have any questions.

  150. Deadcatbounce - I agree with your post about blending in, standing in the breadline with the others, etc. That's my plan.

    I also agree that a gun is liable to get you into more trouble it will get you out of. At least, speaking for myself, I think it's true. I can imagine either not being able to use it when I needed to, being arrested for threatening the wrong person, shooting myself, or - worst case - shooting someone I wanted to protect who was unfortunately in some unexpected place from my point of view at the wrong time. No gun for me.

    My hoarding will be restricted to PMs, as I assume that the basic infrastructure will continue to work.

  151. As someone mentioned above, the police respond to and investigate crimes, not prevent them. When seconds count, the cops are just minutes away. I own one gun, a Glock 27 for it's bang and compact size and I didn't buy it until the beginning of last year. Got a concealed carry permit not too long after that too. The crash in '08 is what "woke me up" and it's hard to watch the world we are currently living in and not expect an unfavorable ending at this point. Not so much a matter of if, but when. Desperate people do desperate things and we've watched how many countries rise up so far AFTER the unemployment, food prices and inflation hit the tipping point? Why should we expect to be immune to it? Because they speak a funny language, don't have the same quality of life as us and it's on the other side of the planet? I was never a boy scout, but I liked their motto and I plan to always be prepared in case of a sudden outbreak of zombies. I haven't hopped on the food growing or storage thing though, but I figure I can just make zombie burgers or something if it gets that bad. For now I'm just loading up on silver when the times are right and just recently set up an online trading account with TK. Figure it's time to start getting into some miners and agricultural commodities while the gettin' is good. Hopefully it gets going good enough to fund all of my physical purchases. That would be sa-weet!

  152. I love this place. Justin, that's funny. I just did the same thing with trade king. I figure about 10% chance we go mad max, and 10% nothing happens at all. I am trying to do the right thing for my family in that grey 80% middle area. Thanks to everyone for the fantastic input. Turd, you rule.

  153. You know I love you guys, but the Mad Max scenarios really seem out there. When Weimar germany got hit with hyperinflation, society didn't collapse into anarchy. When the Argentinian currency crisis hit, society didn't crumble. Even people in Zimbabwe have managed to keep plugging away without the fabric of society falling apart. The US might be more way more lawless because we have more guns and a highly materialistic, entitlement based value system, but hopefully a crisis would bring out decency in people before a complete meltdown happens.

    The thing I don't understand about stockpiling silver "for barter" is whether it's really necessary. Say 5% of the population has precious metals and is preparing for a US collapse. Does that mean that when the SHTF, 95% of people will starve to death and won't be able to barter at all because they don't own PMs? Somehow I can't see that happening. Supply disruptions will happen, essential goods will be scarce for some period of time, so I agree with the notion of stockpiling food and essential goods to last you a while. But this too shall pass, and society will find a way to stumble forward and rebuild. It's happened in every country throughout history that's suffered hyperinflation.

    I don't know about you, but I'm in physical metals not to have a currency to barter with, but to try to preserve/grow my wealth in the face of a failing US currency. I'm looking beyond the initial chaos to having assets to rebuild with on the other side. I'm going to try to avoid trading my silver away for essential survival. I'll follow the lead of the 95% of the population without precious metals to get through that period.

  154. I'm with you Silver Leaf. America will be undergoing some huge political changes and disruptions, and a whole new economy needs to be re-built from the ground up in some cases but out of food or power because paper money collapsed? I don't see it.

    That would be unprecedented in paper money collapses.

  155. By the way, there are two books everyone should read to get more informed about how hyperinflation has played out (check the reviews on Amazon, and let us know if you find better books).

    1. "When Money Dies" - written in 2010, it's the most current and one of the most highly rated overviews of fiat currency failures.

    2. "Dying of Money" - out of print, check out the reviews and the asking price for existing copies(!).

    Given that it's out of print, what's nice is that the second book is available in PDF format here:

    Being armed with knowledge is better at this juncture than acting out of uninformed fear.

  156. Katrina. That is all I have to think about to make me take civil unrest here seriously. There is a big difference between us falling from where we are on the "food chain" and people like Tunisians, Egyptians, Yemens, Algerians etc. Most of them live on less than $2 dollars a day with 40-50% of their monthly income going toward food. Rising prices for them is a one way ticket to going hungry. We haven't even started noticing it yet, but we should by summer. Oh, and all these uprisings are taking place in areas that could potentially disrupt oil production/transportation. If oil goes up drastically in this current economic climate, we be phucked. Any number of things could throw this entire global economy into shambles, even here in the US of A. Unemployment: not getting better. Housing: not getting better. Government spending:not ending anytime soon. Banks: still stickin' it to us with their shenanigans. I just don't see enough good news lately for me to feel confident about shovel ready jobs, green shoots and prosperity trickling down to us common folk. Maybe if I owned a bank or a car company I would feel a little better, but I don't.

  157. Silverleaf, I agree with you. Countries have survived hyperinflation and huge financial problems before, and will this time as well. Personally, my main concern is to understand what's coming so that I can at least preserve my savings.

    Don't see Mad Max happening, though there might be rationing, with soup kitchens, bread lines, and the like. And there might be little available fuel, which is one reason I suggest having a couple of good, sturdy bikes for transportation and be fit enough to use them.

  158. Silver up 14 cents currently. Almost time to see how we'll do for the next round of the Blythe attacks. Should be an interesting week!

  159. I wonder if we'll see middle-East like unrest in the USA - It could be just like the crowds we saw in Cairo, main difference being everyone would have a Glock, so, according to what I hear, it'd be generally safer for the individuals.

  160. Remember, everyone: Gold, Women, Sheep. That's all you'll need in the afterscape.

  161. Silverleaf,

    You are spot on. My great-grandmother, who survived the Weimar Hyperinflation as a child in Schwerin had a saying, „The kettle is never as hot as you cook it.“ When Money Dies, was a real eye opener for me, and it confirmed a lot of what I’ve been able to decifer out of my great-great grandfather’s diary from the 1920’s. He never really understood hyperinflation, but he saw it start in Austria a year before it began in Germany and adjusted accordingly. It got to the point that the spot price of gold didn’t matter anymore. Imagine giving a butcher or a local farmer one ounce of silver for all of the meat your family needs for a month, on the promise that this arrangement will continue on a monthly basis so long as the butcher doesn’t start screwing you. He’ll jump at the offer, knowing that silver will be a store of value, not just today – but in the months to come.
    I do know that one of the first things a government does in a hyperinflation is to put a cap on rent. It’s governments way of reacting to the peoples anger and doing something popular without having to pay for it. In the Weimar, landlords got massacred financially because they couldn’t raise rent. One month’s rent revenue wouldn’t pay for an egg. This resulted in the rental properties becoming worthless, to the point that 7 grams of gold could buy a house. Without really understanding why, my great-great grandfather made a fortune with his small gold stash, (even though gold ownership had become illegal) on properties during Weimar before selling everything and moving to America. Got gold?

  162. That being said, I still believe firmly that our governments will try to keep this ponzi going as long as possible in an attempt to inflate away their mountain of debts in a somewhat orderly fashion. If and when we reach the point of currency collapse, our fearless leaders will begrudgingly revert to some form of a gold backed hard currency with a gold spot many multiples higher than at present, thereby preventing real hyperinflation from taking hold. It will be the third world that pays the heaviest price for our ponzi schemes.

  163. Silverleaf, take the recent Egyptian uprising for instance. Now, imagine the same thing taking place in the USA. Here's were the difference is in my opinion. The Americans have guns! Lots of guns! All previous failed currency nations didn't have the firepower as do the typical American.

  164. good gravy such doom and gloom!
    Here listen to some AC/DC and cheer up. Scroll down to Eargasm. Seriously, plan for the future to a degree but live your life today, enjoy it, and don't live in fear.


    Dr. C up over 1% in face of slightly stronger buck; things that make you go HMMM. Can they really hold gold and silver down in the face of the above article?
    Feb/Mar will be months to remember either way fo sho

  166. Keep in mind that Americans are far richer today than during the 1930s (or Germans in the Wiemar Republic). Being richer, we have more of a cushion for the fall. I don't believe that anarchy will ensue. In my small midwest town, I think a few well publicized "homeowner blows away intruder" stories will keep private citizens as safe as anything can. but I can see the welfare classes marching in the streets demanding their handouts when state governments are broke... Perhaps master Bernake will direct some e-money to bolster the state budgets to keep order in the country. My God, what have we come to when we look to the Fed chairman for salvation instead of the President.
    Just thinking out loud...

  167. Any unfamiliar with this may find it worthwhile:

  168. There ya go, silver catches up with copper up 1%+' gold still the laggard. See, thats the beauty of my miner stock holding. My only gold, TRE, will move pretty much independently of gold price for next two years as it transitions into a producer. My silver miners are attached to the silver price hip, so Silver has to go.
    Yes, by arm does hurt from so much back slapping

  169. my "word' was trelezbo, TRE Lezbo. That is just a little strange

  170. Pat: In french, I think that means "very gay".

    Anyway, I have a Monday thread for you.

  171. The big difference between these other examples of hyperinflation and our situation is they used the dollar as a proxy. In our case,FRNs being world reserve,there is no substitute currency. Also consider,there will be no foreign aid for us in our time of dire need.

  172. Lots of good links, thanks people. Thanks to those with cooler heads for their posts. It's good to hope for the best and prepare for the worst, but different people will prepare differently. It might fine to have a gun or two but many of the draw-the-wagons-into-a-circle gun owner types don't seem very community minded, to put it mildy. In fact in tough times it is people's sense of community that gets them through. One guy with barbwire around his house, a bunch of guns and who buys food with PMs can be a target. And if you start pointing guns or shooting at people who come to your door for help, when the time comes when you're the one needing help (and there will be a time, guns and PMs won't solve everything) people might not be so interested in giving you a hand.

    The comparisons to New Orleans post-Katrina, I don't understand. A natural disaster of that sort is a different, localized affair. There was a breakdown in order, certainly, but the amount of looting was greatly exaggerated. Most people that died were too poor to get out, they drowned. Some were murdered by the cops.

    That said, definitely a much tougher landscape is coming to the USA, I hope that it brings people together rather than apart. America desperately needs a sense of community which has been missing for some decades now, without that we will fail no matter how prosperous we are.

  173. No long post this time. Just want to agree with the things said by deadcatbounce, silverleak and lordkoos. BTW, I meant to acknowledge and agree with earlier posts by deadcatbounce, too.

    I also do not foresee a mad max world. At the same time, I think our modern way of life is much more fragile than most people realize. As I drive down the main drags of every city I visit and count all the restaurants, car dealers and furniture stores, etc., I wonder how many will remain open after a monetary crash.

    Dr.Jerome - I'm interested that you say Americans are richer now than in the 1930's. How do you mean? It seems to me that most people have much more debt and no more job security, less savings, and no other material reserves, but I am interested in your point of view.

  174. Much respect for your all's interaction and just being aware of the possible problem. Would like to introduce you to SUNRNR solar generators at, a minimal start at preparedness