Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Withering Wednesday

Well, we survived another, full-on EE Wednesday beatdown. Lots of new paper metal created from whole cloth today by Blythe and The Monkeys but, as you can see below, 1325 continues to provide solid support and the gold chart is forming a beautiful base form which it will start its inexorable climb to $1600 by 6/10/10.
Silver, too, performed admirably in the face of the EE attack. It is actually trending higher while Blythe and her minions are selling which only goes to show just how solid the underlying fundamentals are.

I understand that many of you are dealing with some harsh, winter weather today. If you are snowbound, you might appreciate some fine reading/discussion material to help you pass the time. First up, ponder this. I received this note from one of my favorite "turdlings". He is a longtime member of the U.S. military which means he qualifies for some serious, government-sponsored retirement "benefits". Some of you may be in the same boat as public sector employees. The "Colonel" makes some interesting points:

"All pension funds today are ponzi schemes, anybody still putting $$ in them is an idiot, in my opinion. You know they are just funding immediate liabilities on the short term before they are bankrupt and changing laws to continue their life, at a steep discount I might add... That said, I will tell you what I did and maybe if you feel it is of merit then you can share with others. It is not new or illegal!

The largest 
pension fund in the world, which makes it the largest underfunded one as well is the TSP/gov't one, which I belong to. The gov't is adding more jobs so they can rob employees to pay their un-funded obligations and seduce the new employees with a "MATCHING"contribution, yeah right, that is BS. You put your money in there so they can rob it and they put nothing in and give you a statement each month that says you have x# of $$. Bull Shit!

Here's what I did and advised all my friends to do in state/gov't pensions. Your feedback from turdites claim "I wish I could buy more bullion". We know JPM uses gov't $$ from us, bastards- to do the same thing. OK, just fiat $$ but we can f-them and do the same. I suggest, and I did this, to tell all gov't/civilian employees to liquidate as much of their pension as they can as a 
personal loan. I can take 50% of my TSP; and I did at 3%. I bought eagles by the 500 case, it has almost doubled. I pay my acct back @ 3%. BTW I am giving Uncle Sam his $$, not mine. I know this may x-the line as financial advice so defer to your expertise. But let's use our inflated profits to do what those assholes are doing without cashing out  needed cash to profit from this situation. BTW, Egypt is lost, F-it, prepare for doomsday. Just a thought for some of your readers who probably have a huge worthless pension nest egg and will watch it disappear in a couple of years. Do what you can ... I did. Colonel."

Next, I've received quite a few emails asking which other blogs I read. No, I don't read FOFOA, though maybe I should, and I don't follow any TA-oriented blogs, either. I do, however, think that the following are worth your time and effort to check on a regular basis:

Of, course, there's Santa:
And Harvey:
But there's also Gonzalo Lira:
And Max Keiser is kind of fun:
My old ZH friend, Mr Jimi Lennon Hendrix always has some valid opinions:
And I'll be checking the new silvergoldsilver blog quite often, too.

That's it for now. Beware a EE sneak attack on the Globex today as Blythe is surely getting desperate. Maybe Ruprecht needs to scrape her bunions again soon.

And this is interesting:

As is this, from Joel Rosenberg:

The Obama administration is playing with gasoline near an open flame. As lawlessness and violence continues to spread through Cairo and other cities, senior White House and State Department officials are inexplicably indicating that they are now interested in welcoming the Muslim Brotherhood and other “non-secular” groups into whatever new government is created once Hosni Mubarak leaves office, as he has indicated he is now willing to do. Note: As of 2pm eastern Wednesday, 1 Egyptian had died and at least 600 were wounded in violent clashes in Cairo.
  • The Los Angeles Times reports, “The Obama administration said for the first time that it supports a role for groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood, a banned Islamist organization, in a reformed Egyptian government…..White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said that a reformed government ‘has to include a whole host of important nonsecular actors that give Egypt a strong chance to continue to be [a] stable and reliable partner.’”
  • The New York Times reports: “White House staff members ‘made clear that they did not rule out engagement with the Muslim Brotherhood as part of an orderly process,’ according to one attendee [to a meeting of Mideast experts with three officials of the National Security Council], who like others interviewed for this article spoke on condition of anonymity because he did not want to talk publicly about the meeting. The Muslim group had been suppressed by Mr. Mubarak, and Bush administration officials believed it was involved in terrorist activities. It renounced violence years ago. Several times, two other attendees said, White House staff members said that Mr. Obama believed that Egyptian politics needed to encompass ‘nonsecular’ parties: diplomatic-speak for the Muslim Brotherhood.”
Few moves could be more disastrous. Does the administration not understand who they are dealing with?
Meanwhile, Mohammed ElBaradei continues to prove he is a wolf in sheep’s clothing by continuing to deny that the Muslim Brotherhood is an extremist Radical group intent on building an Islamic caliphate. Instead, he says they are a peaceful group and should be included in national politics in Egypt just like evangelical Christians are including in the U.s. and Orthodox Jews in Israel. In an interview picked up by Politics Daily, ElBaradei “said the Muslim Brotherhood, which had the largest organized opposition to the government, did not pose the threat of turning Egypt into another Iran. ‘This is totally bogus,’ ElBaradei said. ‘They are no way extremists. They are no way using violence. They are not a majority of the Egyptian people. They will not be more than maybe 20 percent of the Egyptian people. You have to include them like, you know, new evangelicals, you know, groups in the U.S., like the orthodox Jews in Jerusalem.’

Turd out.


  1. I've liked your gold/silver projected price by June 10 ever since I first saw you post it. That's my birthday so I hope you're right, that would be the best present. You got one on yours in silver reversing it's downward trend that day!

    The note from your Turdlings is great, how awesome would it be if that caught on and many of them did it?!

    Those are all blogs I follow on here too, along with M.K.'s site, always good reads and great info. Glad to see silvergoldsilver has a blog now, been waiting for one.

  2. The Turd has left the building.
    But please stay folks to enjoy the one and only
    "Globex Bi@#tch"

  3. Whence, pray tell, did you get the wonderful name Ruprecht?

  4. Vain: Chief Monkey #1 is named Ruprecht after "Ruprecht The Monkey Boy" of Dirty Rotten Scoundrels fame.

  5. and here's a continuation of that scene:

  6. Turd. What do you think of this? The people being recorded on the audio seem to know each other and obviously did not know they were being
    recorded. It´s about end FED and plans for a gold backed currency.


  7. Thanks Turd. And now I've been asking this for a bit, and I don't wish to be a jerk, so this will be the last time.

    What are the factors that limit Blythe's ability to tank the price? Where could I find some info about this precise matter?

    And wouldn't raiding GLD and SLV unallocated inventory hike the price? Yes, it's an "off the books" transaction, but it would show in the inventories of GLD and SLV if they were published, and the drop in inventory would push sale bids up, correct?

  8. @Turd: Thanks for the posting the remarks from the Colonel. I just realized that I have TSP $$ left over from my Colonel days and need to roll it over.

  9. Vain: Precise info about Blythe's abilities is not available. We are only able to use our common sense to discover and predict her actions.
    Additionally, the FOFOA article linked earlier today did an excellent job of explaining the link between the POS ETFs and their "custodians".

  10. Thanks again Turd. Best that can be done that means (as I see it) is scenario planning. Worst case, best case, and everything in between.

    In any case, when the silver runs out, there will be nothing Blythe can do. And it looks like that's going to happen fairly soon.

  11. I love Max Keiser's video reports but his website is filled with wacked out left wing propaganda...about Americans being baby killers, peak oil nonsense and stuff which I don't get. I've tried adding comments, but they never post them because my opinion is contrary. Total turn off there.

  12. I like Max. Not afraid to just go completely over the top. Entertaining. I don't really go there for serious information.

  13. I've never been able to get thru one of FOFOA's posts. Wordy, Wordy, Wordy. Cut to the chase, dude.

  14. @roluswe What is that? any more info?

  15. It's been all Egypt all the time for about 4 trading days now. About time for some Euro-Panic to come back to the markets. That should shake things up but good.

  16. I'm with Eric. I read Max for entertainment along with the occasional PM nugget.

  17. FOFOA is wordy. I think it has to be. I have verified many of the things this dude says with some high end friends. They have found no fault.

    If life could be summed up in a few words all the time- we could all shave our vocab and our ability to listen and comprehend. Spend quality time on the Ipod. Shit.

  18. Thanks for the colonel email...Turd. I cashed in a whole insurance policy...finished paying off house and bought PM's with rest. My agent basically told me I was stupid because of the projected grow of the policy by the time I am 65. I asked him how much do think I will be able to buy with those fiat dollars. He got real quiet after that.

    Thanks for all your work.

  19. Great info from retired military!! You can see the only retirement account; is a personal hands on account at arms reach!! Far, far, away from the ponzi go round paper fiat system! I had a premonition years ago to get out of my 401k; and use it to buy silver!! My wife not so lucky, as she can now only borrow on it! No big deal we're empty nesters and I dumped my job Fall '10, having hit me it was futile to have two incomes paying into a soon to be failed system!! Wife doesn't mind as she's 10 years younger than I! This was my 30th wedding anniversary gift!! She said quit keeping one foot in the grave and another on a banana peel! Her income is sufficient to pay all the bills and then some! I gave her half my silver to do with whatever she liked for her sacrifice!! We're goon-a survive the financial break down coming by working together! I'm getting my fire back, having been out of the slavorading work force 9/23/10!! I know one thing! In a few years upon both us retiring, we won't be taking money from the SS, as my wife & I will have sufficient for our needs!! We forfeit whatever to be there for the rising generation which gets totally ameriCON'd staying in the slavorading go round for the neoCONoplian politicians/bankster fraudsters who kill the host of workers soon!!

  20. Also...Instead of cashing out 401k...I bought 50 acres of nice farmland with the 401k account. I do wonder how this would be treated if a confiscation of 401ks ever happens. Any thoughts anyone?

  21. As a retired flyboy from about 3 years ago, Colonel's words are welcomed and reassuring. I immediately rolled into a Traditional brokerage IRA and have been investing in PM etf's and miners ever since. As a career patriot, the sense of eroded trust I have for my very own government makes me quite sorrowful. I serve a different master now...

  22. roluswe,

    Where did you find this link? Listening to it now and would like more info on who these people in the conference call are. It truly is crazy listening to the things they are talking about and I'm only 10 minutes in to it.

  23. T Lane...

    How did you score farmland with a 401K account?

  24. Anyone wonder why the crime continues unabated?

  25. @hang10

    Moved my account to Equity Trust Co. You can purchase all types of alternative investments....rental property, tax leins to name a couple that I have done. There are strict rules on paying taxes etc but at least it is something I can touch.

  26. I know I've heard of ways to do real estate in an IRA, so I guess the farmland thing sounds doable.

    Was this actually within your 401(k)? or was this after you left the job and you were rolling over to an IRA?

  27. Regarding global Sharia law and Caliphate --

    This double-line underscores and highlights in bright f'ing yellow our desperate need as human beings to separate ourselves from the machinery that enables this sort of monstrosity to even have a chance of coming into existence. What is the Muslim Brotherhood trying to do in Egypt? They are trying to take control over the machinery of the state in order to inflict their will upon those within reach of that particular state. Without that machinery in place there would be nothing to take over and nothing to use against the people.

    Free people are much harder to consume than those who have already submitted to an artificial construct of authority.

    Free people are people who don't label themselves according to some arbitrary organizational structure they were born into. They consider themselves human beings with a right to life, self-defense, and property. They self-organize using voluntary means and consider any initiation of force absolutely intolerable. Any institution that seeks to force them against their will is seen as a clear threat whether masked in terms of peace or not. Free people are more prosperous and better able to defend themselves because they don't have an apparatus encumbering their ability to thrive and sending them into poverty through currency debasement and disarmament. People who have some wealth and ability to defend themselves are FREE, period. Two things that have to happen before a free people can be brought to heel is they have to be impoverished and disarmed. These are primary effects of authority constructs we refer to as "the state." We are financing our own destruction.

    Cut away all the BS and you're left with voluntarism. It leads to happiness and prosperity, and a much more flexible and resilient population.

  28. Here's a site I like. Good quantitative info, lots of great charts, fits with my generally inflationary view. Doesn't get all political.

    Unfortunately I'm too cheap to actually subscribe, so I never get the juicy conclusions to the articles, but it's not that hard to guess what he's driving at.

  29. Man, these beatdowns are getting old....I put some of my speculation money into a cotton tracking ETF (BAL)...really, if it's for speculation purposes, the specific commodity doesn't matter, I might as well get the most bang for the buck, and frankly, it's good to have something that's not getting beaten on every day. Does anyone know of an ETF that tracks rice? That seems to be the next big pop up commodity.

  30. @Eric

    When I rolled from a 401k to individual IRA at the time I moved over to Equity Trust.

  31. I wonder if Turd's followers are as confused as me. I'm trying to make sense of all these conflicting theories, facts, guesses that circulate out here in our non-MSM world. You know, this kind of stuff:

    1. JPM is the big COMEX silver short, acting on the Fed's instructions;
    2. Wait, no says Mr. Persistent, Ted Butler! JPM is only a front for China, which is pissed off about not getting its silver back from the US and is keeping the COMEX paper price low whilst accumulating physical;
    3. But then there's the mysterious Wynter Benton, who says the big silver price run up at the end of last year had nothing to do with physical shortages: it was just hedge funds piling on futures and demanding extortion money or they would crash the COMEX by taking all its physical silver;
    4. Now we hear that physical silver is disappearing everywhere, as JPM is stocking up in order to counter the next Wynter Benton/hedge fund extortion effort, due to arrive at the end of March;
    5. Then we have Eric Sprott, who has shown us that there's simply not going to be enough silver left for industrial use if more people start hoarding it as a precious metal;
    6. Then there's non-MSM par excellence, Max Keiser, who thinks the world's financial terrorist regime will be defeated by lots of little guys buying silver coins (and making funny you-tube videos);
    7. But what about the big elephant in the room: multi-national gold price suppression, which is the only theory that seems well backed by facts (thanks to GATA)? But GATA doesn't seem to say anything about silver;
    8. And how about the very clever Jim Rickards, who says that China can't be a true third partner (along with Europe and the US) in any new gold-backed currency system, because they simply don't have enough gold (yet)? But what does he say about silver?;
    9. Of course we might learn something from verbose FOFOA, but who on earth is able to get all the way through his articles?

    Yes, it's all a bit confusing, at least for me. So, I'm working on a theory/story that tries to tie all this together logically. I'm going to post it in a separate message here a bit later.

  32. T Lane

    Yeah, that totally makes sense to me now. You choose your IRA custodian, you choose one that specializes in these more unusual real estate things, you go for some farmland. Yup, excellent choice.

    It's just that technically, when expaining it to others, you don't have farmland in your 401(k), you have farmland in an IRA. You don't even have a 401(k) anymore.

  33. The latest McClellan Market Report came out last night. It continued to have Feb 8 as the target date for gold price low, but it said that many of its indicators are at levels indicating such an oversold reading that the price could turn at any time. In addition, I noticed a bunch of their gold related (bullion and miners) indicators bottoming throughout February, so I think we may have a more extended bottom process throughout the month rather than a well-defined, sharp V bottom. A second date to keep an eye on for weakness is Feb 17-18.

    On a separate note, I've always wondered about other posters who say they've had problems finding silver at their coin shops. I drive over to a shop in an affluent coastal town in So. Cal. and have never had a problem buying silver - until today. Totally out of bars of any size. Not many rounds displayed either. Inventory arriving had already been spoken for.

    Something's going to pop, and soon.

  34. flaunt: You are right on the mark, sir.

  35. Turdle GG-

    It is a quandary. I just try to keep the big picture straight in my head.

    Western governments are printing money hand over fist, due to weak economies.
    Inflation is higher than they will admit to, and going higher.
    Meanwhile, interest rates are held artificially low.
    Therefore, real interest rates(rate minus inflation) are somewhere between negative and hugely negative, depending on which inflation rate you believe.
    Negative interest rates means higher Gold. Period. Always has, always will. Silver generally goes where gold goes, up or down, only more so.

    To me, the stuff you are trying to figure out is all backstory. Interesting and fun to speculate about, but backstory nonetheless.

  36. 1 & 2) Does it really matter who is behind the short? Does it affect whether we are correct about a coming explosion in price?
    3) It would be nice if they busted the comex. But look at Harveys post from yesterday. From what I read, it looks like only 5% accepted the cashout. Everyone is standing for physical.
    4) ..or Wynter is wrong? We have no proof that it is.
    5) Now I like Sprotts point, as it appeals to the greed in us, and THAT is provable. With constricted production, hoarding CAN kill he price. Of course, Sprott is one of the hoarders ;)
    6) Keiser has an interesting idea, but even with record eagle volume we need continued sales increases each month to depelet all worldly reserves before the Comex default. Their hand goes in to the cookie jar before most others.
    7) I guess I side with FOFOA here in thinking that gold IS money. Silver is a trade. (To me). Silver has real world uses, whereas Gold has pretty much none. Gold is more or less just a store of value, and it doesn't harm the world to hoard. GATA is going after the manipulation of monetary manipulation that affects the value part of the store of value function of Gold. To them, I bet Silver is a commodity, like copper.
    8) Silver probably can't participate as a reserve the way gold can. To do so you would place a leak in the reserve system. Imagine you have gold reserve in the future, digging up gold amounts money printing (a simplification on increasing reserve). If you ALSO had silver, you would have no control over silvers movements against gold (you can't use price pegs against gold as that would lead to shortages for worldly use.).
    As for china, to an extent I agree. Wikipedia says they have 1000t. But they are increasing that dramatically. Read FOFOA's 'Who is draining GLD' post up now. Who to DO think is draining GLD? ;)
    9) Me! But I cheat. I have a boring IT job, so have notepad open on my screen and have been going over the archives for the past 2 months. I have learnt a LOT about the world that GATA is operating in, and how what they are fighting was being discussed in the late 90's on the USAgold forums.

    Don't forget the big part of story though (Next post)

  37. After reading the Colonel's post about pensions I thought you guys might get a kick out of the "Stable Fund" as an option in my 401K choices. Here's a screenshot of the pdf (note the weightings at the bottom right).

  38. I'm not sure a post I tried before made it... If you have a 401K, IRA, .... with Fidelity, they have a nifty sub-company for PMs that you can hook into. Check it out. I get my Eagles and Maples listed with all my other funds now... :)

    About all this Egypt brouhaha ... I think people should look below the surface. There's other shit going on. Kissinger just said things are "The opening act in a long play...." Creepy. Muslim bro'hood supposedly is an intel op. just sayin.

  39. Eric and fourth,
    thanks for your comments. I'll hold off on posting any of my theories unless/until I think I have something worthwhile to add.

    you say:
    "Silver generally goes where gold goes, up or down, only more so."
    I suppose that's right, in the long term. But I'm trying to work out whether the next move in silver will be to $40 or $20.

  40. To me the big problem is NOT silver or gold manipulation, nor ever the giant debt problem, they are symptoms. I'll try to explain.

    What most peak oilers fail to do is properly tie in debt and oil.

    Modern banking to me is oil banking. The modern world relies on the force multiplication you get from oil that makes individuals far more powerful and productive than ever in history. That expanded personal productivity has given rise to the concept of borrowing now, and paying back later as the status quo. The reason we can do this is that productivity increases mean that tomorows labour is actually cheaper than todays, in terms of cost of productive effort.

    This lends rise to the concept of continual inflation from credit expansion chasing a finite number of items in the world. This obsession we have with growth is now baked in to the financial system as debt is attached to so much o the worlds assets and banking systems are so undercapitalised that the banking system itself can ONLY accept contiued inflation. Asset deflation as we see destroys reserves, and kills banking. Remember this, banking as we know it, CAN ONLY exist in a inflationary system.

    If you put together a debt based monetary system that forces continue growth, with an energy system can actually DOES have limits, then as soon as energy consumption peaks and starts declining, then our productive efforts will decline. This gives rise to continual deflation which will lead to a financial meltdown.

    Now I'll leave it to you to research the actual specifics of the averaged field production, that is now confirmed to have peaked in 2006. Pay very close attention to the relationship between oil price, oil production and the financial system. Why did oil REALLY runup in 2007-2008? What happened next?

    I came to gold and silver from this angle.

  41. I wouldn't worry too much about the Islamic Caliphate, unless you are living in a country where there is a significant Muslim minority (>25%). In such countries they might eventually manage a societal takeover, but the idea that any of these Muslim countries are going to invade Christian countries in the modern era to establish a Caliphate is ridiculous.

    Remember - all these 'highup' ex-military sources have an incentive to keep us all scared of the Muslim Bogeyman, just as they did their best to convince us a Soviet invasion could happen any moment now, right up until the USSR collapsed and we discovered it had all been BS.

    In addition to keeping the sheep scared, so that money keeps flowing to the military-industrial-banking complex, they are doing their best to convince voters to back policies that are in the best interests of Israel - whether those policies are in the interest of the US or not.

  42. "Eric and fourth,
    thanks for your comments. I'll hold off on posting any of my theories unless/until I think I have something worthwhile to add. "

    Please note, I'm no expert. I have followed this for about 6-9 months, but invest 6-8 hours a day reading learning and researching(much to my wife's annoyance) ;). I'm just an IT guy who spends all of his time learning anyway, so learning this is probably a better payoff long term than EMC's new product line or vSphere.

    I have followed the peak oil thing since I first found that lifeaftertheoilcrash web page around 2005'ish and have been reading The DailyReckoning daily since early 2007ish. So I had a bit of a heads up on the GFC. IN my spare time I also write FX latency arbitrage software HFT's (personal use only). I'm no turd though. I can only even read the charts as I spent a year scalping FX ticks. I don't even know half the names of the patterns people mention!

    Just throw all your info out there, it'll help someone get to where you are...

  43. @@roluswe where the eff did you dig that up? and make sure you have a copy. I'm about 20+ minutes into it and I'm at a loss for words..

    you guys need to listen to that..

  44. @roluswe: OK, I took the plunge and listened to the entire 90 minutes.

    Sounded like an economic "War of the Worlds" broadcast to me, but with a happy ending.

    Wishful thinking, I'm thinking.

  45. I listened to bits of that interview and didn't get the feeling thing 1 and thing 2 had very sound footing with their facts or credibility...was this just me? The folks asking questions seemed to be more grounded in their history and understanding of the central bank than the presenters were, IMO


  46. It troubles me immensely that nobody - but nobody - has made the incredibly obvious connection between Al Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt; #2 in the former was one of the heads of the latter:

  47. @Pick. I got the impression that this was sort of an insider meeting between some "underlings" and their circle of "friends".
    The lady came off to me as the "insider" passing along information to these players who,at least to me, seem like they might have big money.

  48. fourth,

    You are taking a bigger picture, longer-term view than me, which is no doubt wise. I'm just trying to get rich quick! (Yes, I know, rich in the modern-day sense, measured only my country's fiat currency).

    I will post my theories later.

    I am interested in your angle of how you came to gold/silver through studying oil and debt. I wonder could you educate me/us more on that? Do you mean that the oil price peak was the pre-warning that the debt-based system was approaching collapse? If so, lower priced oil is only a temporary aberration due to the world being fooled into thinking that central banks have fixed the problem? But, as the world's debts can't and won't be repaid, gold is going to replace debt in the new financial system?

  49. fourth--
    Tread carefully on the peak oil stuff. If we take 10 guys on this blog, we'll probably get 5 peak oilers and 5 who think it's a flat out fraud, yet all ten come down on the same side of gold and silver. Weird how that happens. But anyway, this blog is probably not the place to fight it out, just like we tend to stay away from traditional politics and religion. Let's just stick to our common ground.

    but ps: I'm with you :)

  50. Turd,
    Just another daily update. APMEX sold more than 50 100 oz bars today. They are now entirely out of 100 oz bars of ALL brands that are available for immediate delivery. They haven't been able to acquire more metal that they won't even pre-sale new bars... because they haven't been able to get contracts for physical delivery.

    This is one of the larger retail bullion dealers and they're now out of immediate delivery 100 oz!

  51. Eric,
    I think fourth's view on peak oil are relevant in Turd-town, if it's what led him to his interest in gold and silver. I'm sure Turd will let us know if peak oil joins politics and religion as a topic that will invoke use of his delete button.

    I'm sure fourth is rounded enough to even outline the opposing view and why he thinks it's wrong.

    I wouldn't even ask if this was ZH, but it's not. We're better-mannered here, right?

  52. Turdle--
    To my mind, IF you accept the concept of peak oil, then the answers to your questions are yes, yes, and yes. I might phrase things differently, but you are on the right track. Bottom line is if you can no longer get real growth in a society (for whatever reason) then governments have always opted for nominal growth ( growth rate without subtracting inflation) as a fall back. At least that will allow the old debts to be paid. But that feeds right into the scenario of money printing, inflation, negative real interest rates, higher gold, etc that I outlined above.

    But again, I really, really don't want to start a pro and con peak oil flame war here. I've seen them before and they are not pretty.

  53. @Turd,

    You've asked us to keep politics off this board, and it has resulted in a great forum for discussion on a lot of market-related topics, with a much higher signal to noise ratio than you can currently find at ZH. For that I thank you.

    In return, I'd like to respectfully request that you not incite us re: those same topics. I'd be perfectly happy to have to look elsewhere for my Middle East fearmongering.



  54. Turdle

    Yes, I think the discussion of "IF you buy peak oil, then the impact on gold is such and such" is valid. See my note above. I just would hate to see Turd Town stray off into a "Peak Oil!" "Fraud!" "Peak Oil!" "Fraud!" shouting match. Seen too many of those... :(

  55. Just bought my first physical after reading this blog for a month or so. No one can say when gold will shoot over $1400 again but I'm damn sure this is an artificial bottom, so I bought the fucking dip.

  56. @ruluswe

    There's quite a bit on this stuff on the web:

    If there's any truth in it then we're in for an earthquake. But it does seem utterly fantastical.

  57. The world is in a right mess,the old Guard that have had 30 years of accumulating wealth and putting nothing back are being given their marching orders.You can put out a flame but you can,t put out a fire.Whats really frightening is Gold and Silver prices don,t reflect the latent fear that exists and show just how far the manipulation has gone.Once this fear turns to panic prices will go ballistic.Do not be afraid to purchase physical in any quantity we will look back in the future and be thankful we did.The thinking and reason on this site is more truthful than anything you will read in tomorrows papers.Thanks Turd for your time,effort,honesty and integrity.All the best mate,Bob.

  58. @Fourth. Been lurking here a while. Logged in just to say your thoughts on PMs and peak oil are basically the same as mine. The current debt fiat system can not survive the negative growth that is coming. The only way PMs won't come out on top is if it gets Road Warrior bad, which I think is unlikely, at least in the medium term. I can't say I've heard any legitimate opposing views. Most just don't know enough about it. It's a speculator conspiracy, abiotic oil, or technology will save us are the most common opposing views. I've come to the same conclusion on peak oil approaching it from several different directions: ecology, complex systems theory, evolution theory, and physics. Having worked part time for the last 10 years I've spent a large chunk of time studying these things.

    Too many good authors but my favorite peak oil writer it John Michael Greer. He has a very deep understanding of complex systems and cycles. Almost like Martin Armstrong but without all the technical stuff.

  59. @roluswe

    Totally wild stuff. If it's a hoax, someone went to a lot of effort to make it. Why?

  60. some funny things going on in the vaults today folks...

  61. @roluswe,

    it's a theory I guess - 1 & 2 had a general idea of but were very short on the particulars. nonetheless, really interesting stuff :)

  62. This comment has been removed by the author.

  63. Re: roluswe's conference call post

    Seems this call is from the Iraqi Dinar revaulation conspiracy theory crowd...


    Could be a scam:

    Or maybe not?

    either way they sure say a lot of sensible things about fiat currencies and a new gold standard

  64. Surprised nobody's posted this story from King World yet:

    "Chinese Gold Demand Stuns London & Hong Kong Traders

    Precious metals traders in London and Hong Kong said on Wednesday they were stunned by the strength of Chinese buying in the past month. ‘The demand is unbelievable. The size of the orders is enormous,’ said one senior banker, who estimated that China had imported about 200 tonnes in three months...

    ...It’s apparent to me that there has been a very large buyer in the gold market, particularly on moves down towards the low $1,300’s on gold. It is obvious now that China has in fact had an insatiable appetite for gold. This explains why we have had such a huge drop in open interest in the gold market, while gold has only fallen a mere 6%. Open interest has fallen almost 30%, but as I said gold has only dropped 6%...

    Full story here:

    The closing point is interesting - it basically says that the Chinese are experiencing massive inflation, and are buying gold as a hedge against it. Two thoughts come to mind.

    1. Way to go Ben Shalom Bernank(you 'effing idiot).

    2. I wonder what this does to silver demand once the Silver ETFs become available to the Chinese people (later this year)?

  65. Re: roluswe's conference call post

    This is only my opinion, so we'll keep that in mind. My BS meter was going off a few times. I do smell scam on this. Maybe just a hint, but still some scam. The deep voice dude was asking many leading questions that he seemed to know the answer to. He also did a lot of explaining during his questions.

    Hmmmmm... I'll have to listen to it again. I know I won't be making any decisions based on this call. Also, what high powered group of people use ""?

  66. Eric,
    thanks for answering my questions to flaunt. Hope he can chime in, too.
    Understand your point about a fight starting over this, but, as I said, this blog's contributors seem more reasonable than others.

    My introduction to "The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us" was through reading Steve Keen's work. But he doesn't make the link to oil, nor does he see gold as the "Prepare accordingly" solution. He doesn't really have a solution.

    thanks for your comments too.

  67. It appears to me China is re-monetizing gold and silver while not talking about it. I could be wrong on this but I cannot find other ways to explain why they encourage their citizens to buy gold and silver.

    Look at silver in particular, they quadrupled their net import last year to 110M ounces equivalent to around 1/7 of world annual mining output. They themselves produce about 1/9 so put together China is getting 1/16, nah just kidding :-), around 1/4 of world silver mining output of 2010. Essentially China is running a sleeper silver shopping spree while no one is watching.

    One way you re-monetize metals is to make it available and spread around among your citizens, and that's what China is quietly doing.

  68. @Patrick & @Roluswe

    I have to agree, now that I've listened to the whole thing and done a bit of research... it smells of scam, namely, to get people to buy Iraqi Dinars in the hope they get revalued.

    90 minutes of my life, gone forever :-p

  69. Turdle
    Yeah I hope fourth comes back too. Sometimes I'm an idiot. First I ask a guy to tread carefully, then two seconds later I just jump in myself and step all over a question that wasn't even addressed to me. It's just something I actually feel pretty strongly about and so couldn't help myself.

    My apologies to you, fourth, and anybody else who feels they want one. Let's move on and try to solve your question of whether silver sees $20 or $40 first!

  70. Turdle, did you have a question you addressed to me? I didn't see anything.

  71. flaunt,
    sorry I meant fourth, not flaunt :)

  72. Eric, Turdle,

    I'm in Sydney, so thats why I was gone so long. That post was at 1am...

    I'll keep this basic and leave out the PO details.

    When I learn of the PO problem I researched the hell out of it. Without specifics (so as to not stir up the hornets nest) I was convinced as in my earlier post that what we ascribe 'value' in a monetary sense, could very well fall back to that which actually provides us 'physical' value.

    Fiat is debt against the government. So getting your cash out of the binary world in to the physical may not help, as the notes may be discredited enough to not be worth anything 'to others'. I had a bit of a mind game working out, which things in a major crash really has 'value'.

    The best I came up with was that strictly physical objects, with a genuine purpose. Shovels, seeds, house, land. I don't however think that we'' be thrown back in to the 1800's for good. Complexity will return, and when it does, capital will return as the rich as always will make a play for control. What could they use to rebuild and regain power? Gold. The world historical store of value.

    Silver, to me is not part of the plan, except that it's a 'trade'. I believe that silver will pop upwards before is revalued. Silver to me is just a way of getting more gold, but at least having something physical if my timing is out. I won't go above 30% physical.

    My personal play, is a bit complicated. RE here is still in a huge bubble, WORSE than before the GFC. So, I own a VERY modest 1960's cottage way outside the city, 2.5 beds, garage falling apart, etc. Rent it out. I'm an IT guy, 3 km from the CBD.

    Based on most calculations on a gold or silver revaluation I should be well set for buying a very nice house (post bubble pop), on an acreage. Perhaps a Vineyard, or orchard, and depending on how little real capital is left, I might buy a bunch of RE so my retirement and kids can live off the rent. Maybe a city apartment. I think Nathan at new world economics has the right idea about increased densities of cities as energy becomes more expensive.

  73. Half of my time goes in to learning how to grow feed, permiculture, vermiculture, etc...

    Even though I feel I've really got the hang of the interlinks between oil, gold and banking, there are just so many reason for me to be 'right' about this course of action that any one of them would make me happy. I'm debt free, put aside a decent amount of physical ag\au each and every month. E.g.
    -Gold revalues FOFOA style to 50k\oz. BIG win. Small Silver win. I own estates :)
    -Silver Revalues, banks start failing. I trade ag for au. Gold reverts to mean, which reports range on 6-10k/oz. I win, with more than enough to retire, on a small farm in an attractive setting.
    -Silver and gold don't revalue, and just continue their existing action. I retire in 20 years, VERY happy with capturing most of the bull run.
    -Gold and silver crashes and burns. As it does, by SMSF(like your 401k) keep buying and buying physical at cheaper and cheaper rates, in effect averaging in. Retire in my little cottage, pass on a mountain of PM's to the kids when I'm too old to give a rats ass anymore.

    Sorry! No epiphany here! Just a hopefully another angle. Yes, I'm hoping for a lottery, but I'm ok with just avoiding inflation on my savings.

    A good place to duke out PO is the oil age. I even opened a thread -against- the typical fast crash anarchy crowd here:

    On PO, one thing to keep an eye on is the opposition is often the global warming brigade. I don't see PO and Global Warming as orthogonal, but they do, as PO indicates that there will be less emissions due to less use, hence PO environmental complacency is implied. I personally think it's academics. Remember, I see PO merely as a reduction in energy fuelling growth that allows inflation to be sustained. The main reason to mention this is to spread this idea of the banking dependence on infinite growth in a finite world. Eventually, banking will have more numbers and the world will have less stored energy to deploy. Feel free to invade the Oil Age is you care to discredit PO, no skin off my nose. The economy will likely collapse even if you found some huge light sweet fields in economically easy places to access. We all agree on that!

    For anyone like me that just like to absorb information, this document make a lot of practical sense:

    4096 character limit. I'm too wordy!

  74. Blindweb Said:

    "The only way PMs won't come out on top is if it gets Road Warrior bad, which I think is unlikely, at least in the medium term."

    I agree. But my bias is that Sydney people are not all that nasty anyway. Most don't understand hardship and will likely sit about wondering 'when someone will do something' even in a bad case.

    If you look at the forum post link above, you'll see me arguing against the bulk of the Mad Max crew on their home turf. I wasn't really shredded all that bad really. I was hoping to learn why I was wrong, but mostly wasn't dis proven.

    This (Sorry Turd, trying to stay on track) is the driver for bullion for me. My theory is, governments will take 'control' of life support structures. Electricity, water, agri corps. They will likely nationalise banks and cut back services to only whats needed t run life support, and really... life will go on. No mass dieoffs, no mad max.

    This stance to me is critically important in the link to gold and silver. If you don't believe in a still functioning world, gold and silver will probably fail to live up to your expectations. In a life where people are in queues for their government cheese, there will not be a bunch of happy gold wielding millionaires running about high on life.

    One other thing I didn't mention. I have a strong feeling we'll see a debt \ currency reset. This means, it may be hard to transition wealth from one economic system to the next without owning physical objects.

    Whilst I'm a bit wordy, you'll see I only contribute when I think I can contribute value.

    "Totally wild stuff. If it's a hoax, someone went to a lot of effort to make it. Why?"

    The sceptic in me first thought, pump and dump. Problem is, a lot of the information doesn't come from those that would benefit from a price increase.

    The best advice, to keep this place clean is to start with field output history. Then move on to other fields. Look at countries. Look at world averages. Come to your own conclusions based on masses of research. Don't believe Kunstler just because he sounds right. Follow the data.

    In any case, along the lines of my 'My gold investment always wins' approach above, it doesn't even matter if PO is real or not. You could quite validly just accept that price really is 103 for brent, and that really does destroy the economy and stop there. The research still works. I bet you could even use an oil chart as a good measure of inflation to show you where gold should be priced based on inflation, in a rough way.

    Also consider that as oil is sold in USD, in essence (open markets) oil is now backing the USD. These agreement were made around the same time the USD went off gold. There is an interesting story there. FOFOA is a good place to start.

    "But again, I really, really don't want to start a pro and con peak oil flame war here. I've seen them before and they are not pretty."

    Agreed. Feel free to us the link above. The most diehard PO doomers live there. It would be a better battleground than here. I won't fight on either battle ground, I'm just suggesting a view which leads to pro physical PM.


    A thought on this, the Euro is a good environment to view collective currencies. A global 'reserve' currency might be more viable if it were tied to no nation perhaps. Gold of course is better as nobody pulls the strings on the others.

  75. "Why did oil REALLY runup in 2007-2008? What happened next? "

    Sorry, last post as I'm now probably pretty annoying! If you research this you'll find tin foil hatter claiming it was a 'test'. Officially it was (I think?) an oil middleman doing a pump and dump. When I looked at the supply \ demand numbers, I found that for a few months were were drawing down on reserves as demand was below supply.

    What happened next? $100+ oil bled its poison in to the world economy. (Remember that saying you read at ZH, for every dollar the economy loses 100billion. That's just one country. Love to see the world numbers. I have not researched this impact on the economy, but right around this time too many people started selling property they could no longer aford...a dn you know the rest. My -personal- view (don't bother duking it out here for Turds sake, and I won't fight back.) is that this high price is what helped the sub prime meltdown commence. This was off the back of a supply shortfall.

    My personal history at this time was that I was in high risk, high return Small cap funds. I exited, trapping a 70% one year gain within 5% of the equity top(as in a 5% loss). This was luck, not skill. The Daily Reckoning screaming gold, gold, gold at the time planted the seed, and I started researching.

    Anyhow, 11pm. Hopefully someone enjoyed my thoughts... :) If not I'll go back to lurking...

  76. "I'm sure fourth is rounded enough to even outline the opposing view and why he thinks it's wrong."

    Last post again ;)

    Perhaps a better way of interpreting idea's is not to look for perfect evidence of right or wrong, but to place a probability on it, and accept the idea with that probability?

    Probability of these. Maybe they are all right, maybe none. As new information comes t pass, we refine the probabilities towards 100 or 0%
    -BOS is China
    -Silver Short is China
    -JPM shorts as requested by the government wanting to suppress inflationary indicators to keep down bond yields. This keep the part going for the Fed and also Treasury.
    -Hedgies want to raid the comex to collect premium
    -Ron Paul opens the Fed book for all to see
    -GATA succeeds
    -GLD and SLV are emptied by comex notices being filled.
    -oil price increases enough to force risk assessors to price in oil dependence in interest rates.
    -CB's intentionality allow a crash(PIIGS, MUNI's), so that they can reprice gold and 'come good'.

    Loads of idea's, none even need to be disgraced in public. Assign a probability to HAARP causing killer weather patterns or Chemtrails doing something evil (the evil thing changes too often for me to keep track). What if China invading Australia was a 10% chance within 20 years. Would that cause me to leave, or merely buy a farm somewhere without a nearby mine ;)

    To me, PO impact probability is high, probably above 90%. The 10% I allow for sovereigns 'holding out' for strategic advantage, there is also a chance of a Dues Ex Machina event ala small scale cold fusion (i.e. car size). I can live with others giving it 0%, I don't care, I've got gold and grow a lot of my own food ;). PO doesn't even need to happen, I'm just not that invested, and you don't need to be either, just understand it, rate it, get stronger from being better positioned for any future.

  77. is down

  78. Ben on Live lieing through his teeth again...see my blog for details on this idiot. POS and POG go parabolic b/c of this...