Friday, February 25, 2011

Heading Into the Close

We've got about 45 minutes left. Gold and silver have been firm all morning which is very encouraging after yesterday. The EE attack was only able to reset price a dollar lower or so. It was not able to scare away determined longs, which is nice. From here, I'd really like to see us move convincingly through 33 and close UP near yesterday's close. That we'll have an UP week seems assured absent some BS manipulation/trick (which we all know is always possible). Gold is looking tough, too, and a close above 1408.40 would give us our 2nd-highest weekly close ever. I don't care what anyone says...a close above 1408.40 would be significant.
And this is good, too. Looks like ole Dan and I are looking at a lot of the same stuff:
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/02/4-hour-gold-chart.html
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/02/4-hour-silver-chart_25.html

Keep your fingers crossed for the next few minutes. More later this afternoon. TF

166 comments:

  1. I asked the same in my previous post....

    Interesting article from Trader Dan about the difference in backwardation in Silver Physicals and Silver paper.

    http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/02/backwardation-structure-appears-to.html

    "if you are a large buyer of silver, and you can get the exact thing by buying a March futures contract at what is a DISCOUNT to the physical market, who in their right mind would not want to do that?"

    Now why wouldn't anyone go for paper instead which is selling at a discount? Anyone?

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  2. Hi Turd

    Great Blog! As holder of PM's (physical) and a long-term investor in PM stocks, do you currently have any stock recommendations?

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  3. Malcom-

    Quoth the Turd in the previous thread: "I own TRE, EXK, SVM, EGO and NG."

    And they heard the word. And it was good.

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  4. @malcolm -- see:
    http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/02/getting-up-to-speed.html

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  5. @silver king

    A long long time. I just let go of 50% of it. So I am good. Hope it goes higher. I started in 1979 as a commodity broker with Conti Commodity in Chicago. I was 27. Conti was a subsidiary of Continental Grain. So it has been a while. Thanks for the advice though. Much appreciated.

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  6. Turd! "I was not able to scare away determined longs, which is nice."

    You ARE Blythe aren't you?!

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  7. Someone asked earlier about agricultural commodites. My .02 is that basically oil is the root commodity for practically everything these days. Farming is an exercise in turning oil into corn, wheat, etc. Mining is an exercise in turning oil into gold and silver. I try to know everything I can about oil, gold, and silver, and let the rest go so as to not spread my energies too thin. Investment wise, I think they all correlate pretty well together. I'm heavy into oil and metals so I figure I have all other commidities covered to some extent. Can't buy 'em all!

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  8. @atlee: don't know if you saw my post in the other thread about hedging. did it make any sense?

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  9. flaunt: Nice catch. Kind of a "freudian slip".
    Noted and corrected.

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  10. Flaunt -

    Turd = BM. Think about it...

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  11. Some guy set up a viewable silver spreadsheet. Also check the tabs at the bottom where you can see open interest.

    https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Ajym06WyPAdmdEdZM2RwRlZvNW40N1lsTm1CS1Fianc&authkey=COqL6cUF&hl=en#gid=17

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  12. @Malcolm

    Welcome. Turd just listed all his stocks this morning, they are:
    TRE, EXK, SVM, EGO and NG.

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  13. @eric, What sectors in the oil industry do you like best right now for long term upside and intermediate upside, Oil servicers (SLB etc.) Gas companies(CVX, XOM etc.) or others?

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  14. Turd is Burt Reynolds, didn't you guys know????

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  15. Turd is Norm Macdonald, and he is still hoping for a new sitcom gig.

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  16. Turd

    Perhaps in a future post, maybe this weekend, you wouldn't mind doing a quick review of the fundamentals of the short squeeze and WB's supposed premium strategy. I am pretty sure many people, possibly including me, don't understand it correctly.

    The way I see it WB & co. could make a very big score here and we wouldn't know what they got for a month, if ever.

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  17. Thanks for the assistance gents!

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  18. TF, not sure why just the next 45 minutes are important (20 now), when the hammer came down well after close yesterday? Silver is a 23:15 hour market (except weekends) and anything can and does happen in any session as we have seen this week.

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  19. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  20. You know something funny - Whenever I read Turd's post, it is coming out as Norm talking and chewing gum. I just cannot shake it off.

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  21. 8,382 contracts to break the COMEX?

    Looks like we are going to do it if the longs don't roll over.

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  22. Thanks guys for recomending OANDA.

    Turd wish your sponsors were trading platforms not ford. Not being smart but a brand new car is the last thing most silver traders are looking into.

    I promise to feed soon as I can. Still went to the link to show support.

    SLA rules

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  23. Temp that link doesn't work. I don't know who this Edelson guy is but he also advised staying away from gold and silver at the end of January.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bzwvM0qneVQ

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  24. Mark said...
    Some guy set up a viewable silver spreadsheet. Also check the tabs at the bottom where you can see open interest
    _____________________
    I am pretty sure that was a fellow Turdtown resident, though I can't remember the name.

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  25. turning japanese: Many, many algos are set to run off of technical signals. The charts they follow are the Comex closes, not the Globex. Therefore, a positive weekly close on the COMEX is important for mgd$ long interest.

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  26. Bought just a little more TRE and PHYS today.

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  27. the spreadsheet comes from sassballsgrandpa. He's usually lurking around here somewhere. I'm sure he'll be happy to post it again.

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  28. Mark, CD, it was sassballsgrandpa.

    It deserves a shout-out. Heck of a spreadsheet!!

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  29. And how about that copper chart??!!
    Strength there will definitely help us heading into next week, too.

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  30. No prob, turn.
    Blythe uses the globex to raid because the typical volume there is about 5-10% of the COMEX pit so its MUCH EASIER to smash price.

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  31. I have it saved in my google docs. Here's the spreadsheet link:

    https://spreadsheets.google.com/lv?hl=en&key=tGY3dpFVo5n47YlNmBKQbjw&hl=en&f=true&gid=14

    Thanks again to sassballsgrandpa for keeping the data up to date

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  32. Yes sorry I'm on an iPad ..Links don't work for some reason... Lookup the moneyandmarkets channel on tube and you'll see his vid titled "wild markets" uploaded today...
    I agree Edelson isn't always right .. I listen to everyone then filter out what I think is good or bad info... Still learning as always

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  33. Short term watch for a break below 32.86 same as yesterday

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  34. At about 3:45 EST yesterday, how many of you would have seriously thought we could close the Comex today at 32.95?
    Or, stated differently, if you hadn't discovered this site, how many of you would have thought that today's close was possible?

    Not looking for attaboys, here. Just pointing out that I'm very glad so many of you are getting wise to all of the dirty tricks and manipulation of the PM "markets". Don't EVER let them scare you into selling. If the overall trend ever clearly turns down then fine, sell. Until then, you must stand resolute against the Forces of Darkness. We are winning!

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  35. @Turning Japanese - Link to Silver and Gold ETFs and Stocks. Good reference link

    https://spreadsheets5.google.com/lv?hl=en&key=tGY3dpFVo5n47YlNmBKQbjw&toomany=true#gid=17

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  36. Seems that once comex closed the buying started going on...

    Interesting indeed...

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  37. @Flaunt
    try this one
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBJx6PUEBPs

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  38. @Turd... I was thinking the same thing on the Cu chart... as for the "panic" that people were feeling yesterday, I bought the dip, hard, and today was gooood.

    Just a tip for anyone that becomes a slave to watching the minute-by-minute or even daily "ticks"...

    ... whenever you start to panic, redraw the chart out to 30 years and breathe.

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  39. Imagine 9-10k shorts having to cover lol.

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  40. For reference, here are the OIs for December two days, one day and day of in November from Harvey.

    28,268
    17,208
    5428

    Here are the OIs for this month from the silver spreadsheet:

    28,275
    14,259 (prelim)
    ????

    Not sure if this is evidence against WB's existence, evidence of WB's warning that COMEX might manipulate the numbers or anything else, but that's the data we have right now...

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  41. Does Light Volume mean anything today?

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  42. I'm really liking Dan's 4 hour intraday charts. They tell a much broader story than the 1 min charts.

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  43. Interested to hear response to Puplava's (financialsense.com) multi-week rebuttal to the "silver shortage/short squeeze" meme. Latest installment here with Dave Morgan and Jeff Christian.

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  44. Very refreshing to be amongst the like minded here at turd central!! Common sense in an uncommon world gone wild with paper money printing!! Yup! I've got real money physical PM's within arms reach!! 100% possession will be the law among the lawless bankster fraudsters!!

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  45. @id: thanks for the spreadsheet! Do you update that manually? Or do you have a script to push?

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  46. Good point, Turd.....on any other day this kind of gain would have me dancing, so it's just as appropriate today.

    Unfortunately, everything was tied up, so I just had to sit tight during the rollercoaster ride. I need to remember to keep some cash liquid for buying opportunities like yesterday

    Someone was asking about trading strategies.... til recently I was buying high and selling low.... ouch!.... I'm still buying too high, but I'm learning to hang on instead of bailing when it drops and gets painful, and it's made a huge difference in my returns. Now, if I can learn to buy low, I'll be in really great shape.

    Kiwi (hanging on with both claws)

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  47. Saw this over at silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com

    This is brilliant.

    And I really wonder if these conversations have already started:

    A bottomless pit doesn't matter if someone is resolute and stands for delivery.

    Buy 10,000 contracts today. Wait for a phone call.

    >> What will it take for you to settle for cash?
    How about 75% premium?

    Me>> No thanks, I want the silver.

    >> What if I told you that we can't get you that silver for 2 months?

    Me>> Then I will call the financial press and expose this. BTW, I am recording this converstaion.

    I WANT MY FUCKING SILVER.

    Saturday.

    >> Hi there, we have decided to offer you 100% premium if you settle in cash. How does that grab you?

    Me>> Make it 150% and you have a deal.

    >> That's a little ridiculous. I will have to speak to someone about this before I can offer you that.

    Sunday

    >> Okay we will offer 150%, but that's final.

    Me>> I don't know, I had a change of heart last night, I think I would rather have my metal.

    Pause......

    >> 200%?

    Me>> Done. See you in May.

    Bottomless pit right? It can work both ways.

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  48. @id, that "prelim" number is now "final".

    Also, what are the chances of having those two numbers be sooooo close (28,268 & 28,275).

    I think they are cooking the books. We won't find out until March 31st.

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  49. DP, that isn't my spreadsheet, it's sassballsgrandpa's and he keeps it up to date.

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  50. @dallascfp: Light volume? I've been keeping March and May SI charts open to check. Volume seems to be split 3/5 or so across them, respectively. Many 'take-downs' have significant volume in both months. IB is my datafeed.

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  51. reefman, I thought the exact same thing when I wrote out that post -- why do you say we'll find out March 31st?

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  52. So, the final OI on MAR SI is 14,259. Still high, but an enormous tumble from ~50,000 OI on that particular contract one week ago.

    http://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/Section62_Metals_Futures_Products_2011037.pdf

    G

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  53. @id, because from my understanding they have to finish delivering silver by March 31st. (I may be mistaken though, but the standfordelivery folks have listed March 31st).

    They are going to stand for 600 contracts.

    http://standfordelivery.com/

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  54. Oh sorry, I misread, it says March 29th, not 31st.

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  55. Yep EE has managed to roll 36,589 contracts in 3 days. Down 14,106 since yesterday leaving 14,259 to cover. If they can drop it 14k in one day, it wont be a problem to square things away on Monday.

    This looks like a non-event. Still a believer, but kinda bummed.

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  56. Its very simple.....you have one choice....if you are standing for delivery you either take the premium and roll or leave....or you stand for delivery of NOTHING.....you want the money or do you want default......

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  57. Does anyone know why silver increased in price from December 1st to December 31st? I think understanding that would help us decide where silver might go from March 1st to March 31st.

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  58. Let's watch the Comex stocks in March and the OI numbers over the next few days. We have to accept some data as legit or there is no point in having a conversation about it. If whenever something doesn't line up with how we'd like it to appear we say "oh well they're obviously fabricating data" then we might as well turn this into a theological discussion.

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  59. SoccerDad

    Oil Sands have always treated me very well. They are high cost producers, so increases in the oil price will be reflected in them quite nicely. Plenty of beta as they say.

    I stay away from nat gas heavy companies these days. I think there will be a heavy overhang of supply for quite some time.

    Refiners I don't like. Need to remember crude oil is their cost of raw material. So they don't always react to the oil price the way you might like.

    Oil Services I think is probably pretty good, but not my area of expertise. Dabbled in it a couple times, and found I was happier with my oil sands. Often more volatility in oil service, but I get plenty of that with oil sands already, relative to my risk tolerances.

    Pretty darn direct link to the price of oil with the oil sands and that's what I'm looking for. SU, CNQ, CVE, and COSWF are my babies.

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  60. Shores,

    Even if only 10,000 contracts remain, that's still 50 million ounces.

    The COMEX reports it has about 41 million ounces available. Plus it is very likely those numbers are fudged and they have only half of what they say they have.

    I believe WB wanted at least 8,000 contracts to remain.

    Also that VIOLENT BITCH ACTION yesterday afternoon surely scared a lot of contracts out. Wasn't today "put-up or shut-up" day for having money deposited into the account for delivery? If so, then it's all over, we just don't know the result yet.

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  61. @flaunt, I agree that we should accept the data at face value until we have real evidence indicating otherwise. It's probably just happenstance that the two day out numbers look so similar, and the mind can't help but fire a quick connection.

    That said -- I think it's unlikely that fewer March contracts stand for delivery than December contracts, so I think the floor is about 6,000 contracts. (I'm uncertain whether most will wait for silver or take a payout.)

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  62. I'm pretty sure this has been discussed before but what are the best food commodity ETFs? Either for a specific food like corn, rice (pretty sure none exist), wheat, or a batch of them?

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  63. @Eric - I was the one discussing the agricultural commodities. I like your assessment of oil being the root. Guns, Germs, and Steel author Jared Diamond would have to argue that the root would be food because all human inequality stemmed from cultures that were able to produce the most nutritious food with the largest domesticated animal workers...I digress.

    As far as commodity market goes, yeah, I'd say oil is the quintessential "big dick" playing field. Essentially, that's why I can't trust it.

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  64. Can't wait to see what happens Monday. I sense many traders got suckered into the 32.40 stop and never went back in. The long entry yesterday near the low was actually pretty low risk.

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  65. Reffman - To be honest I dont really know for sure.

    I thought notices were send out on the 28th AFTER the COMEX closed, that would give them one more session to cover.

    I am all too ready to see Comex default but it seems like these wankers never loose.

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  66. Just food for thought. It does not take much to structure a scenario where all reported numbers are legit while still explaining current price action with plausibility.

    The large OI coming into expiry demanded that goodly number of longs OR shorts had to bail or cover in a short amount of time. This guarantees volatility.

    Considering that shorts usually being the string hands, would both understand market structure better and have the resources to exploit it sharp downward volatility is to be expected.

    Im still waiting for the week where shorts are the weakhand and scramble to cover, that would probably be when the rocket ride begins in earnest, as that would mark a fundamental change in the balance of power for short term pricing.

    The long trend is up because more demand is more urgent than supply, but the traditional short players still have to ability to influence immediate pricing, when they lose control if that is when we go parabolic.

    I guess ;)

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  67. SoccerDad

    Sorry I didn't really address CVX, XOM, etc.

    I like oil sands better. All, or nearly all oil. The big diversifieds have varying amounts of nat gas. Plus the bigs have a lot of country risk. Oil from places like Egypt and Libya, if you know what I mean. Oil sands are all Canada, which is about as safe as you can get. That being said, sometimes I just buy XLE for a trade. But only for a trade.

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  68. EXK with a nice 5+% up move today Turd

    Golden Predator (GPRXF) having a very nice week, capping it off with an almost 10% gain today.

    Flake Graphite 800 pound Gorilla Focus Metals (FCSMF) is having a nice day too, up 6% and only up 152% in 1 month. But still a nice 12% under the 52 wk high. Man I love this thing in '11.

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  69. Has anybody ordered silver bullion from Tulving? If of so was it a good experience?

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  70. Thanks Eric, your logic makes a lot of sense. I dabbled in CVX a couple of years ago because I saw they had a pretty good play on the Canada Oil Sands but sold them at around $74, don't even know where there at these days, volatility scares me with most of the industry. Concur w/nat. gas. Time to do some research into the Oil Sands companies, thanks.

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  71. FLAUNT - I have purchased over 8000oz from them. They are awesome.

    Be warned that they will use the full five days for delivery as they are slammed right now.

    Buy with confidence they are A+++

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  72. unum,

    no kidding, what a day for the Doc. I talked about WRN this morning but shoulda bought it instead, sucker is up 7.5% today.

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  73. flaunt ... I have done the bulk of my purchases there ... great service and a trusted dealer ... best prices + free shipping ... a little difficult selling back because you need to be ready to ship quickly but he gets AAA+ from me ... free shipping going back also but I have never done that .... HOOOOOOLLLLDDDDING

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  74. Congratz, Blythe, we are now there where you started 24h ago!

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  75. @flaunt

    It's Larry Edelson at Uncommon Wisdom. I subscribe to his service but disn't follow his bearish advice in January and lost my a$$.

    "We lost some recent opportunity recently but I'm not worried about that", according to Larry.
    He says in the intermediate he's hedged for a drop in gold price. He thinks silver is topping. I don't know if this link works below, but I think so.

    He predicts silver will drop to $23/oz. He claims his proprietary model is predicting a cyclical correction. He's all about cyclical TA. Wonder what Armstrong's cyclical models are showing? Anybody know?

    http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/wild-markets-eh-watch-this-video-to-gain-further-insight-%e2%80%a6-11383?FIELD9=4

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  76. Flaunt,

    Commod. ETFs: Try DBA, DAG

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  77. Flaunt,

    Tulving can be a jerk/rude at times, but if you know what you want, he has the best prices and shipping times in the business. I would definitely recommend him.

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  78. @Afrum

    You must have more exclamation points than the BS Bernank has pixie-dollars. (But we love you!!!) ;)

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  79. reefman, my understanding is the last day of the month is notice day, Monday. Comex had today and has Monday to bring the March OI down.

    I'm even surprised that the March OI was 14259 after yesterday's take down.

    Monday's report in respect of today's March OI will be interesting - I mean, after the take down yesterday where a contract holder lost profits or incurred some losses, why sell the contract today? Sure, price went up today but taking the risk it didn't fall for further lost profits/losses. One would think these BoS can stick around and deposit 100% of the funds required on Monday unless they were paid out a 'fair' premium today and thus making up their lost profits/losses from yesterday...

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  80. ewc58,whats the story with focus metals?

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  81. I don't want to jinx us, buuuut I seem to have some pretty good luck with buying on pullbacks. Since the big rise from October I've purchased physical on the major pullbacks @ 23.70 26.80 (T's B!) and now yesterday 32.12.

    Here's hoping the purchase yesterday will look like 23.70 before long.

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  82. "reefman said... Shores, Even if only 10,000 contracts remain, that's still 50 million ounces."

    -- I agree. Anyone who doesn't have money or intention to take silver delivery is an idiot to stay in the game this late, cause he has to understand that to avoid massive default/cash settlement, EE will sell contracts like crazy to push down the price, to shake idiots out. EE can sell 200 contracts at a batch at price of 20 cents lower at each raid, then they would buy back those 200 contacts plus a few more from the broken stops, and repeat that raid again. People have to understand to JPM, making/losing money in metal business in never a concern, suppressing metal price to keep paper money/notes/bills from Fed's printing press attractive is their #1 business goal. The only way to defeat JPM at Comex is to demand delivery at massive amount more than 50+M oz, so they have to offer cash settlement or face a law suit. WB gangs can also take a strategy that they sue or threaten to sue JPM in court for the failed delivery to drive up silver price during 03/01-03/31.

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  83. Gold and silver seem to be making a final dash to the upside.

    Reassuring to see that, despite this considerable overlay of manipulation-driven fluctuation, there is a baseline of robust, consistent demand.

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  84. @flaunt Another viewpoint on Agriculture ETFs dealing with contango and how it lowers ETF profits.

    http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_31/b4189050970461.htm

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  85. Hey Turd & Family,
    I tried to post this idea weeks ago but no luck. Will try again. New website will be AWESOME!!!

    Anyway- I have been hearing a lot of my friends and fellow employees mention turning their Uncle Sugar checks (refunds) into PM come April. I don't trust "the man" so I make sure I'm darn near first in line for my check by filing Feb 1.

    What will a nation of "just awakened" retail coin buyers do to demand and price going forward? (I think I answered my own question). I'm looking for a(nother) good entry point to go shopping at the coin store but I am worried that benny bux will be my own undoing if I don't strike soon.

    Not looking for a response by The Turd in the flesh but if someone could chime in that would be
    Fan-turd-u-lous!

    All the best my fellow metal heads-
    Shizo

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  86. Prize Fighter .... I like what Ed Steer said when silver was hovering around $30.35 ... buying today like silver will never go back below $31 again ... considering who he hangs with your $32.12 is looking good

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  87. GW,

    Check this out, very interesting, I caught it recently. See the other speakers as well, Medallion Resources (MLLOF) and Texas Rare Earth (TRER) there among others. Mickey Fulp does a great piece on evaluating REE's. But here's FCSMF's CEO Gary Economo presenting at Murdock Capital's REE conference, I think you'll learn a lot:

    http://ree.murdockcapital.com/GaryEconomo.htm

    MC's tip sheet on FCSMF:

    http://www.murdockcapital.com/pages/load_module.php?pid=115

    And the Focus Metals website:
    http://www.focusmetals.ca/graphite/index.html

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  88. Hmmm., Tax refund conversion to physical precious metals, I like it. Someone should send that idea to Max Keiser, maybe he can make another Movement out of it. Need a catchy name/phrase for it, any ideas?

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  89. Anybody thought of buying swiss francs. I have an opportunity to purchase some from my bank, thinking about pulling the trigger.

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  90. @ SoccerDad

    "Refund Revolt"
    "Metal Militia"
    "Paper for Precious"
    "Coins4Cash"
    "Reverse Deposit"

    ?

    :)

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  91. @SoccerDad "Max a Tax"? like a play on words such as (Max Attacks) or (Maximize taxes)

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  92. What do you think of this comment from the JPM Board?

    "This little breakdown move you've tried to put on paper silver this week hasn't been working out that well for you Blyyyyyythe. You're not selling "paper" with your usual blowdown aggression. Just not feeling yourself these days I guess because you've been losing 100s of $millions. Hear you've been looking plenty dog-eared these days and you've been scouring the miners to front run buying their silver for 15% premiums..anyone can see for themselves that the miners are reporting their average realized selling prices last qtr. are way higher than average market prices and they've been overpaid for their silver which has then been sold into the COMEX at a loss to make the price of silver look lower to the sheeple. You can't keep racking up these losses sweetheart....Jaime's not gonna make his numbers and he's turning state's evidence on your rear end."

    Check out Hecla's realized price for silver sales in the 4th quarter.

    Hmmmmmmmmmmmm

    Very interesting

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  93. Thanks for the comments about Tulving and the ETFs. I will take a look at the suggestions.

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  94. What would happen if you hold a futures contract and the market opens with such a big gap that you don't have enough money at the broker account to cover it? Would you lose your balance plus your margin, or would you also owe money to the broker? I know it's something very unlikely, but I'd like to know how that works.

    Thanks in advance.

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  95. BTW this headline came through on my twitter feed. That they would actually consider another war is absolutely ridiculous.

    White house says US would take military action against Libya, and says it is not taking any options off the table

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  96. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  97. Is ewc58 a penny stock spammer??????

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  98. @Tim,

    I already explained to you in another post when you mentioned it a day or two ago that the Swisse Franc is NOT backed by gold anymore. Nada. Zip. ZERO. It ended around 2005/2006. As of right now 100% of all currencies in the world are paper fiat.

    Can you explain why you are thinking of moving into the Suisse Franc?

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  99. Check out Hecla's realized price for silver sales in the 4th quarter.

    Doug .... where can I see that ? thanks

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  100. http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=63202&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1532968&highlight=

    scroll down to "metal prices"

    check out the avg. metal price of silver y/y, q4 & compared to the London avg price.

    Another reason to ensure your miners are not hedged.

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  101. @Silver Surfer,
    Sorry, I remember that convo now. You will have to forgive me when I get excited I stop thinking. My reasoning was it's position as a "flight to saftey" currency. How ever you make, i mean made a great point and I see no other alternative but to use my money to buy more PM's

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  102. "Realized metals prices increased significantly in 2010 compared to 2009. In the fourth quarter and full year, realized metals prices exceeded market prices primarily because of provisional price gains of $9.6 million in the fourth quarter and $16.6 million for the year due largely to increased precious metals prices in the time period between the shipment of concentrate and final settlement."

    did silver even hit $32.51 per oz (let alone avg.) in q4?

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  103. Wow not the fireworks I was expecting today. I am new to this but does the fact that the price stayed relatively stable ( no EE attacks ) mean that some of those 14,000 OI were still standing?

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  104. @Chin Music

    Heclas realized price per ounce. Ive only found Q3 2010.. I haven't found Q4 2010 yet.

    Check page 8 of this document for Q3 2010.

    Average London PM Fix $18.96
    Hecla Realized $21.45

    http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9NDAxMTEwfENoaWxkSUQ9NDA4MzgxfFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1

    Disclaimer: I just searched. I don't know much about Hecla at all. I just though the question was interesting and went in search of an answer.

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  105. Is anyone else impressed by the strength of silver after Comex close?

    Turd, is this unusual??

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  106. Chris Kimble on $$ Support and Silver effect.

    http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/2011/02/dollar-about-to-fall-big-time/

    Check out his last comment.

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  107. i bought helca at 4 bucks sold all but 1 share in my account now hl up 118% shoulda coulda woulda

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  108. Hecla released their year end financials last night.

    4th Quarter average silver price (London)= $26.43
    Hecla's realized 4th Qtr price per ounce = $32.51

    That's a realized price of 23% above the average.

    Someone was paying a hefty premium for direct supply.

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  109. @Silversurfer

    That is correct swiss joined IMF in 99 and its against IMF rules to back currency by gold. They have been selling their gold reserves while increasing their money supply.

    ReplyDelete
  110. Me = pissed. Took out my stop like thieves in the night and I wasn't around to initiate a new position at 32.58 following the GDP announcement.

    Cost to me = $4k

    That's two times in a week... I need a day to focus on the market again without using stops. Until then, watch this thing soar past $34 while I'm on the sidelines.

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  111. lederge ... thanks ... when Doug said 4th Q my interest grew as I own shares and earnings are scheduled for next week ... HL had a nice day today as did all silver shares

    ragedmax ... we all have those S/C/W times ... hang in there

    ReplyDelete
  112. Minefinders (MFN,MFL) made a huge move today 12%. Think the miner's are going to start playing catch up! Nice move after hour's, any significance in that Turd?

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  113. @Devin

    Wow, 23% avg premium? Now THAT'S price discovery. This explains how TPTB obtain physical without creating a stampede. Should make us realize that a +$2 local shop premium is a gift! Wonder if this information can be disseminated thru the market enough to where miners will lead spot to higher highs?

    ReplyDelete
  114. 4th Quarter average silver price (London)= $26.43
    Hecla's realized 4th Qtr price per ounce = $32.51

    Devin ... thanks ... pretty happy camper right now

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  115. @cris, I don't know enough to be impressed, or not, but I'm sure I'm not the only one to be pleasantly surprised. Happy I went all in on the miners during the dip yesterday anyway. I hope this is the start of the march towards HUI 800 that John Embry talks about.

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  116. @Myron ... mental stops are tough, but the big boys know your stops, play games to trigger them and profit from them. hang in there.

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  117. This has been a really interesting week. The EE attack can be seen on the chart from mars, and it basically didn't work. In 24 hours we are back where we started, heading to the moon. Shorts must be on fire somewhere, and someone is losing a LOT of money. It feels like an end game playout to me, and things are desperate for the price-suppressors, but I might be misreading the situation. Interesting the movement in the DOW, and geopolitical events, and oil. Lot's to ponder...

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  118. It is funny. From Bloomberg:

    " JPMorgan Chase & Co., the second- biggest U.S. bank by assets, had its credit outlook upgraded by Standard & Poor’s, which said the lender’s profit is likely to rise.

    The outlook was raised to “stable” from “negative” because the New York-based firm “is well-positioned to resume significant earnings growth as the general economy recovers,” S&P said today in a statement.

    The credit rater said JPMorgan has a “very strong competitive position” and implicit backing for the company’s debt from the federal government because of the bank’s size and importance in the global economy. "

    ReplyDelete
  119. Another post from Wynter Benton over on screwtape files
    http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/
    sounds like more cryptic jibberish to me.

    ReplyDelete
  120. The nice thing about today there is a greater amount of volume on the May contract than the March or April contracts. The May contract is the upcoming front delivery month and there seems to be some piling into it already. I think I'm going to start using May as the front month for looking at the backwardation. In other words, I'd like to see May selling at a premium to the months further back, while March and April can do their own thing. It's very interesting to me that the volume skipped right over the April contract like it wasn't even there.

    Incidentally, there is currently backwardation from May through the rest of the strip.

    ReplyDelete
  121. WHO ELSE DOES THIS: A junior silver miner I hold, GPL, sells silver bullion directly to shareholders and the public. You order the silver from their website. They have their own rounds and bars. The prices are cheap too, better than any dealer I have found. Check them out at:

    http://store.greatpanther.com/

    ReplyDelete
  122. Netdania chart isn't working anymore - do they close for the weekend? Where can I get live/prices and volume this weekend?

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  123. I buy 500 AGQ at average of 167.60 on margin yesterday afternoon. I sell it this afternoon for 177.45. My return is 8% in 24 hours. Or I give the Comex $150,000 for 6 or more weeks hoping that I can extort a 20% premium. I don't buy it. Sorry I want to beleive it but I don't.

    ReplyDelete
  124. @TheObsoleteMan
    First Majestic Silver also sells its own silver on-line:

    http://www.firstmajestic.com

    It is my favorite silver miner. I bought their stock at Turd's bottom, they did well since then.

    ReplyDelete
  125. Comment on one of Turd's favorites -- EXK. I have a bunch of August calls on this stock, so I'm kind of hopeful/biased. Check out its chart since January 1. It's either a near perfect reverse head-and-shoulders or pretty near to a breaking out cup-and-handle (for those TA people among you). Does it get extra credit for conforming to both patterns?

    ReplyDelete
  126. @Sergiy - Wouldn't that scenario make sense? JPM gets "free" paper to do with as it pleases - long oil, long corn, etc - while getting even more "free" paper to suppress the price of silver and gold. Their losses on their PM short positions could easily be offset with gains from other positions; not to mention the possible/likely scenario that the short position itself is financed directly by the Federal Reserve. In the 60s it was called the London Gold Pool. Do I need a tin-foil hat to suggest that it covertly happens now through the Federal Reserve?

    ReplyDelete
  127. Sergiy & ObsoleteMan - both mines' stores offer attractive products, but the spot + $2.00+ premium for rounds & bars seems a little excessive. Unless it's further indication that there is a LOT of demand.

    ReplyDelete
  128. Looks like we might have a reasonably bullish COT report:

    http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2011/02/comex-commercials-not-aggressive-on-silver-sell-side.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+typepad%2FkEcb+%28Got+Gold+Report%29

    ReplyDelete
  129. pablo...there are no markets open to have volume on until 6:00 PM Sunday est.

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  130. Don't be surprised if OI come Monday isn't massive and sits comfortably in the 5000 range.

    It looks like alot of shorts covered today.

    Start looking to May.

    This may sound crazy but it looks like after maybe some minor volatility next week we may get another straight line to may.

    Fingers crossed.

    :)

    ReplyDelete
  131. @ Rick that is not true
    CME has electronic trading of futures on all metals until 3:15PM eastern every weekday.

    http://www.cmegroup.com/trading_hours/

    See link

    ReplyDelete
  132. @Rick
    noticed your talking about stocks not futures
    sorry !

    ReplyDelete
  133. qussl3, that's what I'm trying to get a handle on as well.

    Despite only 5,000 contracts standing for delivery at the end of November, the silver spot price continued to rise throughout December before getting slammed in January. I'm wondering why that was -- was it because people were piling onto a momentum trade as seen by increased management money coming in through the COT report? Was it because the COMEX didn't actually have the inventory they say they had, so they had to reach into the physical market to acquire it? Was it just a fluke? etc.

    ReplyDelete
  134. Daniel ... in my opinion not much of a right shoulder to speak of ... didn't come back far enough to form that ... RSI kind of speaks to that also ... looks more in line with cup & handle ...... even if both existed no extra points ... RSI with room to upside ... bottom line really is as silver price goes so goes EXK barring problems with company mgt./bad news

    ReplyDelete
  135. Thanks TF:)
    After yesterdays swoon, I think I'll send to CFTC;

    Chairmen,
    I will keep this public comment as brief as I possibly can.
    I do not give a damn what the CFTC does anymore. It doesn't matter.
    For years and by some accounts at least a decade, the SEC, CFTC, and the DoJ have ignored subliminal and blatant criminal market activity and behaviour without so much as a whisper of any prosecution save those of relatively small and inconsequential participants while letting the biggest and baddest slide with what amouts
    to slaps on the wrist in fines for unadmitted injustices.
    The inaction against this travesty has simply gone on for too long and there is no longer anything the regulatory agencies can do to stop the quickly approaching failures.
    I sincerely hope I am wrong but I simply do not see it and have abondoned all hope.
    It doesn't matter anymore what actions will or will not be taken and so frankly, chairmen, I just don't give a damn.

    ReplyDelete
  136. Got a coupon code from APMEX in an email:

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    Prices listed in this email are subject to spot price fluctuations. Promo code MYBAR2011 applies to online purchases of APMEX Silver Bars from category 1185 only. Minimum purchase of $1,000.00 required. Offer expires 02/27/2011 at midnight (CST).

    ReplyDelete
  137. qussl3: I wouldn't be surprised either to see the OI well below numbers hoped/expected for by many. However the good news is that whatever the number is it will continue steadily draining the Comex stocks.

    ReplyDelete
  138. @id,

    I'm curious to hear other opinions as well. One factor that may have had a role in the December run-up/January dump was year-end profits for the big boys.

    FOFOA discussed it back on January 4:

    http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/01/its-deja-vu-all-over-again.html

    I don't think this is the main reason why prices climbed in December, more like a contributing factor.

    FWIW, I liquidated fairly heavily today. I just don't think that Stand-for-Delivery number is going to be favorable on Monday, whether it's being manipulated or it's truly weak.

    I figure if it comes in at 8,000+, I'm hoping to have time to jump back on the train before the price spikes up again.

    ReplyDelete
  139. TheObsoleteMan:

    They're a very nice additional option, but not the lowest around:

    Great Panther 10 oz bar: 352.50

    Bullion Direct catalog 10 oz Heraeus bar: 348.27
    BD 10 oz bars on Nucleo Exchange: 339.90 (1000 bars currently available at this price)

    GP 1 oz round: 35.25

    BD 1 oz mercury Dime round: 34.72
    BD 1 oz Round on Nucleo Exchange: 33.98 (25 available; 34.10 (1000 available)

    How do you like them apples?

    ReplyDelete
  140. qussl3, you said "This may sound crazy but it looks like after maybe some minor volatility next week we may get another straight line to may." What do you mean by "straight line"? As in "flat line"? tia.

    ReplyDelete
  141. Does anybody have a a working coupon code for gainesvillecoins? Thanks in advance.

    ReplyDelete
  142. NAIUS should get you $5 off shipping at gainesville.

    I also found some working codes for free shipping from Lear Capital, the codes are F7B9E and 52994 either one should work.

    ReplyDelete
  143. The Irish have a very elegant yet simple explanation of current financial situation.

    Its really worth a listen ,

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=koY6kXhQDQo

    ReplyDelete
  144. Wankin Bankers..........that was funny.

    ReplyDelete
  145. Since I "advertised" here on Turd's blog, I upped the viewers of my Silver Data spreadsheet from about 20 to about 50 at peak. Thanks! I AM grandpamerritt@gmail.com, aka Sassballsgrandpa (we call one of our 9 grandchildren Sassball).

    Please visit my Silver Data spreadsheet and my Silver Wheaton spreadsheet, links given below. During normal trading hours, they update realtime every minute, except for OTC and foreign.

    Silver Wheaton

    Silver Data

    ReplyDelete
  146. Fine print from Great Panther's t/c's for metal sales. There are things one needs to be aware of with any seller to see if they meet your needs. GP isn't for big orders. And how about a 5 day "hold time" for credit card orders? They're approved, or they're not, right?
    -----------------------------------------------

    Quantity Limits

    Purchases of Great Panther Silver’s bullion are limited on our online store. There is a minimum of 10 ounces of silver to a maximum of 200 ounces of silver per order. Additionally, the Company will have in place a monthly limit of 200 ounces per customer in order to make Great Panther’s bullion available to a wider range of shareholders, investors and public in general. Great Panther Silver Limited reserves the right to cancel a transaction that does not meet these requirements.

    Shipping Time

    Our policy is to ship orders promptly after you have paid us. We hold your payment for five business days to protect against credit card fraud. In most cases, your order will ship within five business days after funds have cleared. However, reductions in inventory resulting from an increased demand for certain bullion products and other reasons may delay shipping. If we cannot ship your order within the delivery time as described here, we will inform you prior to the expiration of that period of time that we are unable to meet the delivery date and we will inform you of a new estimated date of delivery. We ship throughout North America. International sales are planned for the second half of 2011.

    Shipping Cost

    Please note that Great Panther Silver applies a shipping, handling, and insurance charge to all orders at our online store. The charge is $20 for orders totaling between $250 and $400, and $30 for orders totaling $400 or more. Orders totaling $400 and more are sent with restricted shipping requiring the purchaser's signature and ID for delivery.

    ReplyDelete
  147. Cris: We saw the same Friday Globex drift UP that we saw last Friday. Now, can we see a similar Monday??

    ReplyDelete
  148. ok...I need ask this because quite honestly I have no idea how this is done, but I'd like to get in on it the action against the EE if possible.

    I've been buying physical silver for a little while now and have about 600 ounces of Eagles and Buffaloes.

    But I don't know anything about this paper trading you guys are doing. I don't have tons of cash, but how can I get in on buying one of these contracts so that I can rake in some cash from the wicked witch and use it to go buy more physical?

    Any info is much appreciated! Thanks much as always!

    ReplyDelete
  149. @Turd - For your new web page consider adding in a real live chat room that everyone could join in and discuss silver/markets in real time. Thanks for everything btw :)

    @sassballgrandpa - Very cool idea. Updating the spreadsheet automagically from the internet. Thanks for sharing that. :)

    ReplyDelete
  150. Save_America1st: Blythe is savvy and knows just where you get fearful and where you get greedy. I'd recommend against "paper trading" unless you have a decent background in stocks, options and futures. Best to just keep accumulating physical silver. Some day those physical ounces will be worth well north of $100 an ounce.

    ReplyDelete
  151. I felt compelled to start a whole new thread because of the info I needed to add.
    More tomorrow. TF

    ReplyDelete
  152. @ewc58 "And how about a 5 day "hold time" for credit card orders? They're approved, or they're not, right?"

    ... time to make sure the CC order is not fraudulent (i.e. a stolen or lost card). Many companies dont carry the extra insurance so they have to protect themselves up-front.

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  153. sassballsgrandpa .... spreadsheet COOOOOL !!!!

    ReplyDelete
  154. sassballsgrandpa...

    I hear ya loud and clear on that. So if I bought 1 share or whatever I'd just get eaten alive, huh? lol
    Sure wouldn't mind jumping in and out real quick to test the waters, but certainly don't want to jump into the middle of a school of piranhas either!
    Thanks much for the wise advice!

    ReplyDelete
  155. "oldNavy said...
    @Justin

    You're right and that is part of my thinking as well. However, I'm betting that silver will be higher than $145 when GSR is 1:15.

    Loser buys a beer, bar of your choice! :)"


    I currently have a bet running with the guy who manages my account at the bank. End of 2009/beginning of 2010 I had a talk with him about something and the conversation drifted towards gold/silver. He immediatly said they already gone up in price too much and thought they were a bad investment. I named him some fundamental data. He was like, well, I still think the price has gone up too much.

    Jokingly I said we could bet on it. He immediately went in on it. I wanted to bet on an oz of gold but that was way too much for him so we just bet on a beer.

    He said he believes it's possible that it would go up for another 3, 4 months, but in the long term, 3 to 4 years, it would have crashed for sure.
    That was with gold around 1000$ and silver somewhere close to 20$.

    Well, seems I have a free beer coming to me in 2012 \o/.

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  156. Those miners selling direct seem pretty expensive to me -- $35 an ounce? Definitely direct orders are a windfall for them.

    I bought a 100 oz bar on Tuesday for $3347 from my local coin shop... it definitely pays to shop around.

    ReplyDelete
  157. @ Vedast
    If the market opens with a gap and you don't have enough cash in your account, then you will be liquidated, but I don't know how liable you are for crediting the remaining losses.

    I guess that's something that appears in your account contract in detail. Obviously I am not diligent enough to read it, but I'll look into that someday.

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  158. Thanks, Johan, I asked my broker and I'd still owe them money.

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  159. I'm really sorry to hear that, Vedast.

    ReplyDelete