Friday, February 25, 2011

Yesterday's BS Selloff

Just a quick note as it is currently cocktail hour at The Fergusons.

First it was Trader Dan discussing the "low volume selling" that drove prices sharply lower on the Globex yesterday.

Now, today, you have this from FMX Connect through Zero Hedge:’s-sell-1415-area-seemed-almost-orchestrated

"Seemed almost orchestrated". That cracked me up.
It amazes me that the blatant manipulation is so obvious yet so few want to assign blame. Why? What is there to be afraid of? We're already thought of as tinfoil hat-wearing, conspiracy-theorizing insects. What? Calling a spade a spade makes you even more crazy?

The Evil Empire, led by the commodity desk of JP Morgan, screwed many again yesterday. Period.


  1. The Great Panther bullion is overpriced, but there's a coolness factor for those of us who own its stock. I'm gonna have to get me a few of them there bars.

  2. I have yet to try bungee jumping, but after this week I think I know what to expect...

  3. JP Morgan sucks. Buy Silver Crash JP Morgan.

    I'm buying mining stocks like SHSH, CFTN AND CALVF and holding physical silver.

    The time is now and now is the time!

  4. About buying bullion: I started off with a few Silver Eagles when it was at 26 (and dumped alot of fiat into miners) and last purch I decided to just accum oz's and avoid the premium for S.E.'s and picked up some Buffalos... Trying to maximize my limited purchasing power Id like to know others thoughts on SE vs Generic (buffalo, gp, etc) and will some always have a premium, or will everything become equal (hell, its just a stamp)?

  5. George Thorogood may want "One Bourbon, One Scotch, and One Beer," but I will happily hold on to one Eagle, one St. Gaudin's $20, and one Buffalo and seek more of the same.

  6. Turd, it's wine time at the WG's house. Enjoy your cocktail and thank you for all you provide here. All the best

  7. Turd, is it time for another white out graph, removing the EE action from yesterday?

  8. Turd,
    First post, one week lurker. Thanks to you and all the others that provide useful information. Felt the need to make a contribution to you for the contributions you have made to me.

  9. after last week's craziness - it's a double Crown Royal on the rock for me.

    Cheers all!

  10. "almost orchestrated"

    Saw that too Turd... and you beat me to the comment!

    I suppose the more that see how rigged things are (even if they don't get the scope), the better.

  11. Not that you need them or care, props on the post in the middle of the pounding yesterday. That was badass. It went something like this: "Ugh, BTFD. I just did." That's 20 years of balls/PM analysis right there. I really hope to have nerves like this.

  12. sassballsgrandpa... (reposting on this thread just in case you didn't catch it at the end of the last one). thx again!

    Previous Post:

    I hear ya loud and clear on that. So if I bought 1 share or whatever I'd just get eaten alive, huh? lol
    Sure wouldn't mind jumping in and out real quick to test the waters, but certainly don't want to jump into the middle of a school of piranhas either!
    Thanks much for the wise advice!

  13. @Save_America1st - Educate yourself first on futures and options trading, watch some training videos , follow *only* successful traders and analysts - all else is just noise. Get a demo trading account. Trade in that demo account until you have proven to yourself that you can make money consistently. Then and only then, open a real account and start trading with your hard earned money.

    Maybe Turd can add a "train yourself" link on his upcoming new website with some tips on books, videos, methods etc.

  14. This anger over the manipulation gives me the distinct sense that there are way too many people who are investing with leverage, or who could not deal with a 90+% temporary drop in their PM investments.

    As I've said many times NOT try to time the market. Either buy physical or mining stocks and be done with it. Buy when you have the money to buy. If you aren't in PM's for the long run, I think it's a mistake to be putting money in them. I think the upside to silver is huge, but those mining stocks have been rocked before going down 90+%. I personally have no plans of selling even if they would happen again b/c I'm looking 10+ years down the road.

    Using leverage is just asking to get your balls whacked off. The Fed is desperate & they will be throwing some wild curve balls, changing the rules, and pulling all sorts of other shenanigans that no one will see coming. Mark my words. Invest accordingly.

  15. I copied, pasted and submitted Ted's earlier. They definitely need to be bombarded with emails and messages from us investors. Anyone who owns one single ounce should be writing them with your concerns on position limits for derivatives. Lax and weak position limits only benefit one group and we ain't in that group fellow Turdlets. Let's get our CFTC spam game on.

    CFTC Public Comments

    "Politics is the art of postponing a decision until it is no longer relevant."-Henri Queuille

  16. Forgot to say....

    THANK YOU Turd for such a great blog!

  17. @dryam


    Couldn't have said it better myself. Mr. Turd, thanks for yet another excellent week of analysis. I am now off to visit a few sponsors on this site and then, have an adult beverage...

    Have a great weekend, all!

  18. check out MDW, have it since .94 and had a great jump today.

  19. I tend to look like the smartest person in the room following your advice. I'm a small player, you can't buy a lot of gold or silver making less than $20,000.00 per year as a disabled vet. But I started buying silver at $11.00 per oz. and I've kept buying including just put 2 englehard 1 oz. bars on lay away at my local pawn shop. I'll pick them up Tuesday the first of March. I'm good for food for about 3 years, debt free except for my Mortgage, Got garden and can grow and preserve food.
    I focused on the everyday stuff needed for living 1st now on to protecting my position with silver.

  20. taber ... I buy buffalos because they are cheaper (more BANGOLA for the buck) because when SHTF I don't believe eagles will get you anymore than Buffs ... just my personel perception does'nt mean I am correct ... one oz of silver is one oz of silver in the end

  21. Way to go, Adventures in Self Reliance! It's not what you have, but what you DO with what you have. God bless you!

  22. I like this line

    “The Federal Reserve historically was the lender of last resort in a crisis;
    Today, the Federal Reserve is the buyer of first resort in a crisis
    ..... and every day for that matter”

  23. Miller time at my home too. Time for an adult beverage. Thanks for the info you share on the blog. Learning a lot about PMs and profits already from your advice. Have a good weekend.

  24. My own silver story: I have been aware of precious metals for years, looked longingly at them but never could stick with them for very long. Then, on Oct 26, 2010, Commissioner Bart Chilton of the CFTC, God bless that man, testified with these words: "I believe that there have been repeated attempts to influence prices in the silver markets. There have been fraudulent efforts to persuade and deviously control that price. Based on what I have been told by members of the public, and reviewed in publicly available documents, I believe violations to the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) have taken place in silver markets and that any such violation of the law in this regard should be prosecuted."

    That was my bat signal. I bought a lot of SLV that day at $22.85 a share. Since then, I have been fully into silver, but different types of investments, including futures, options, Silver Wheaton stock, PSLV etc. The result is that although we are only up 50 percent since then, my account is up 100 percent.

    The important thing in silver is to think long term. Avoid being leveraged (options, AGQ, margin or futures) or you will get your ass handed to you by Blythe Masters. If, instead, you just keep accumulating an unleveraged position, or physical, I believe you will win big in the long run. They aren't making any more silver, but we sure know they are printing more dollars!

    Don't forget to visit my 2 spreadsheets:

    Silver Data

    Silver Wheaton

  25. Turd, it's easy to say that it was orchestrated from your point view but do you have proof? Do you have any data to back up the below statement?

    "It amazes me that the blatant manipulation is so obvious yet so few want to assign blame."

    What leads you to believe that this manipulation was so "blatant" and "obvious" and where is your proof? Assign blame to who? What form of manipulation exactly is it that caused Crude oil from $100 down to $96 in a matter of minutes? Was that all in order to sell off gold and silver?

    There is a certain level of tension around commodities markets, particularly when they are wound as tight as the oil market is now because of the sensitivity of news flow out of Libya. What if Gaddafi was killed yesterday? Would the end of Gaddafi not send prices lower? Would lower prices because Gaddafi was killed be manipulation? Markets move on rumor all the time, which I'm sure you know perfectly well, so why would yesterday have been so much different?

    So could yesterday's event be more likely assigned to a market wound too tight reacting to false news about Gaddafi's death or is "blatant manipulation" more likely?

    FMX Connect is an information and data portal for Commodities. They can't just state that yesterday's drop was "blatant" manipulation as that would be pure conjecture and most would ponder what data or facts they had to validate their assessment. Unless you can provide some perhaps you should lay off criticizing others for not wearing their tinfoil hats.

  26. taber

    We've gone around and around on the issue of Eagles vs generics on this blog over the past few months. Eagles have legions of fans, and they generally are not about to be converted, but personally I hate to pay any more premium than I have to. Granted, a perfectly pristine Eagle may get you a better price when you go to sell, but it had better be still in perfect pristine condition. Otherwise you won't get any more for your eagle than any other fugly ounce. It's the cheapies for me! Silver is silver!

    Oh, by the way, sippin on a Kessler's at the momento.

  27. Jesse's cafe also chimes in on yesterday's BS beatdown.

  28. What really gets me is, you get all these guys who bitch and moan about the US Gov't all day long, and then when you ask them why they gotta buy Eagles instead of other silver, they say "Well, these are made by the United States of America, by Gawd Almighty!!!"

  29. Eric, I'm sipping on some box wine. 2 glasses a night, 3 or 4 times a week. Mmmmm.. I'm a 61yo cheap Grandpa. I still work for a living, but I'm getting closer to retirement since I discovered silver! The thing is, I worry about my social security. Either they will reduce my payment when I get to 66, or they will pay me in monopoly money. I think it will be monopoly money, and that's why loading up on gold, silver, copper, zinc, oil, wheat, pork, beef and all commodities is probably a good idea.

  30. Chinese counterfeit coins

    How Can I Avoid Silver Eagle Coin Fraud and Other Fake Silver Coins?

  31. Sass

    I'm with ya. Me and the Mrs. are 50-51, and quite sure we will be means tested on any kind of payment, our retirement age will be raised, then paid in monopoly money, then taxed on all that as well.

    "Prepare accordingly" That's what brings us all together here in Turd Town.

    Might as well just leave the bottle....

  32. I hope some of you have had a chance to look at my Silver Wheaton spreadsheet:

    When you look at this spreadsheet, what should stand out to you is that SLW is a natural doubler, compared to the price of silver. AGQ, which is a silver doubler stock, erodes over time due to it being reset every day. Silver Wheaton, IMHO, is about as good a silver stock as you can get. Natural leverage to silver. No issues with mining, cost overruns, project setbacks etc. They just get whatever side silver their agreement parties produce at $3.90 an ounce, in exchange for a hefty up front fee to help them get their mines started.

  33. Myth,
    One: Absolute proof is impossible to find without the hard evidence of seeing the settled books. Ahh, whatever, I don't even know why I'm typing this...
    Two: I'm criticizing FMX for going right up the line yet not crossing it. As if we're all supposed to "read between the lines" yet they have deniability because they never actually said it. This is why I wanted to clearly "say it".

  34. Sass

    Speaking of leverage:

    What is the saying? "know thyself". I know for me, through long and hard experience that I can only be trusted around a certain amount of leverage and volatility. Junior miners are the most volatile thing I can allow myself to be around. Even that is a stretch sometimes. If I had an options account it would be the death of me and our nest egg both.

    But physical gold and silver, ahhhhhh! No Sweat.

  35. Eric: lol! Did you ever see the movie, Lost in America? Starring Albert Brooks. They quit their high paying jobs and buy a motorhome and start west to see America. Pit stop in Las Vegas proves disastrous as the Mrs. "loses the nest egg" playing roulette! He ends up being a school crossing guard and she works at a fast food restaurant, to survive.

  36. Sass

    Can't Say Nest! Can't Say Egg!

    That's a fav saying at our house!

  37. Mythblasters-

    Yesterdays takedown was "different" as you put it because a thinly traded market was bashed down on no volume- people weren't simply "trading a rumor" because volume indicates that people WEREN"T TRADING. There was no rush for the exists, just a few HFT bursts of low bids to overwhelm the bid.

    Note that Turd is far from the only one calling this blatent manipulation- Jesse at Cafe Americain, for example, had this gem: "The raid yesterday may have been a negotiation tactic. It certainly was a cheap and tawdry affair, obvious to all but the most willfully blind, and those in silent complicity."

    Nicely put, Jesse.

  38. Sass

    I totally agree on the SLW. As I noted here on the blog a day or two ago, my list of juniors, taken as a group, get their butt kicked by SLW almost everyday. SLW is my largest miner position. The rest of them are more like "play money" sized positions. Bought my SLW during the deepest darkest days of Turd's Bottom" lol :)

  39. I've been following events through this entire February roller coaster, and just want to add my thanks to Turd to that of many others here. I've been passing on the "Turd Word" and have found more folks than I'd thought possible ready to see what's right in front of their faces, if they would but look.

    Remember, when you want to say "WTF!!" get the WFT first - the Word From Turd.

    Physical = Peace of Mind. Just BTFD.

  40. Sass

    You are 61 and sweating social security changes before you hit "full" retirement at 66.

    Man, you are on a board focusing on "The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment".

    Take the money and RUN. Retire at 62 with reduced benefits.

    I am 58 and that is my game plan....IF there is social security when I turn 62.

    Best of luck.

  41. Yesterday's take down smelled funny to me to start with - glad I did not get out. I did get ripped back in January around 27 - but that was my fault because I was margined up too high and had to unload some SLV to stay in the game.

    Right now, most of my trading account is in silver and oil, and I don't use stops. Yeah I know I'm crazy... but back in 2007/8 I wasn't using stops on my short positions either. Best decision I ever made.

  42. Sass
    I believe Torx has an excellent point there. Get your hands on some of that cash ASAP and plow it back into something real.

  43. Adventures in Self Reliance and Sassballsgrandpa, you two are excellent members of this grand, growing, and smoldering turdpile of a community! Thanks for your contributions.

    Your comment above ASR was neat to read because I'm accumulating on a small scale with the whatever little fiat I can make surplus too, and its encouraging to hear about others doing it on a similar scale. More and more it's apparent Turd's thesis is correct, so every single round or bar is progress.

    SBG, your charts are the best. They're a wonderful tool, and it's very generous of you to share them. Much props and many thanks. One thing though: I loved the original silver chart that showed spot, SLV, PSLV, SLW, SIL, GDX, GDXJ and the gold:silver. Is there any way to reincarnate that one?

    I believe that PMs are shiny truth in this cesspool of fraud that Mrs. Andrea Mitchell, the Bernank, Taxfraud Timmy, BM and the rest of their like have created. It's awesome to read the thoughts of like-minded folks with so many insights.

    I'm really grateful to Turd, and all you folks for the community this has become. Great to find others who recognize the end of the K experiment and its likely ramifications, when almost no one around me in the real world smells a whiff.

  44. Camino Minerals has been my dog of the week. Gonna need to repeat my DD and decide if I cut it loose, stand pat, or double down.

    THe more Whisky I have, the more likely the "Double Down" :D

  45. Turd: I'm dead with you regarding FMX's thing on ZH today. The "almost as if" headline was so wishy washy I didn't even read it, and I read almost everything on ZH, and if it's on there and PM related, usually twice.

    You're dead on on that one too, dude with funny yellow hat.

  46. By best estimates (our .gov), the date on SS insolvency moved forward to 2023 after Obama's surprise SS reduction this year.

    I'd be surprised to see SS last until 2020, without austerity measures being enforced. But, I do have faith in the US, and all the young'uns will be paying 50% tax (at least those who find a job) in order to keep the monthly checks flowing to the old farts who have physical silver buried int the back yard.

  47. A while back I remember someone on ZH asking what should people wear to identify themselves as a ZHer in the event of an economic/societal collapse. It would be good to identify each other with symbols. If it ever comes to complete instability (or dare I say mad max) I'll be sporting a ridiculous sombrero and preaching, "May the Turd be with you" as I mimmick a priest. So don't shoot me, mkay? Thanks guys :)

  48. Adventures in Self Reliance and Sassballsgrandpa, you help make this blog a pleasure to read. I am in my 40s and eligible for SS and a teaching pension. I am NOT counting on either one. Buy physical. "If you can't touch it, it ain't really yours."

  49. @thecoloredsky

    I'll be sporting a 3 inch Paulson bronze medal around my neck.

  50. Anyone interested in junior miners should check out the corp presentation for Camino Minerals. Not because I want to pump the stock, but because of the chart that is on page 7 of the presentation is oh so educational.

    It is a stock chart of the managements previous company and is a perfect example of the classic junior miner stock chart. Learn it, live it. If you buy any junior miner you better understand exactly where you are on that chart/timeline.

    1) huge exitement on the initial discovery hole.
    2) some degree of follow thru. Latecomers think they just need to buy and hold and what a great mine this will be someday.
    3) investor fatigue as all kinds of doubts set in, months or years drag on, estimated costs seem to go nowhere but up, and new drill holes just can't seem to match the imaginary perfection of that first strike.
    4) the long slog to an actual feasibility study.
    5) maybe, just maybe, you get an offer.

  51. Mr. Jefferson, nice to read your words. A thinking man. I apologize but due to the fact that I am still a working man, and have other part time endeavors going on besides my silver data and silver wheaton spreadsheets, I can't do it all. So regretablly the charts had to go. Besides working 10 hour days, I also hit the treadmill for 65 minutes a day, 5 days a week.

    End of the great Keynesian Experiment! Now there is a thinking man. Have you taken Chris Martenson's Crash Course yet? He talks about the limits to growth, noting that we are at Peak Oil, Peak Population and Peak Debt.
    Ponder this, when our so called leaders tell us we need to return to economic growth, of 3 or 4 percent a year. If you had made an imaginary deposit of one dollar, in the year Christ was born, 1 AD, in the Bank of Forever, in an IRA account (non taxable, payable to heirs on demand), earning just 2 percent compound interest every year, how much money would be in that account today? The answer is, 160 quadrillion dollars. That is more than all the money in existence today. Check it out, figure out 1.02**2011. Exponential growth is over, the peak of crude oil production occurred in 2005 (not counting natural gas liquids, just crude oil). Put a fork in it, exponential growth as run out of the raw energy (oil) needed to sustain it for a hundred years. Only people haven't fully grasped this yet.

  52. Sorry, 197.2 quadrillion dollars, not 160 quadrillion.

  53. This comment has been removed by the author.

  54. Mr. Jefferson , I sure hope that extra oz. I buy or convince others to buy will take out the JP morgue and comex. I don't know what will break the TBTF's hold I'll keep piling on and taking physical delivery. It may be just be a bite at a time. But by God I'll eat that elaphant, and convince others to join the BBQ.

  55. Geez Sass! You and I are like twins separated at birth tonight! I'm a peak oiler too. On a global basis, positive real GDP growth is over! Get used to it! and Prepare Accordingly!

    Oh, and there's new stuff from James Turk over at KWN.

  56. I'm gonna stand pat on Camino.

  57. Sass

    You are spot-on recommending Chris Martensen. He has Specific recommendations on how to prepare:

    You are also spot-on regarding exponential growth. Your example was money. Now consider exponential human population growth in a world with finite resources (oil and food).

  58. For all the newbies on here trying to grasp WTF is going on with gold, oil and especially our modern economy and where this is all going. I second sassballgrandpa's recommendation and *strongly* recommend you take 3 hours this weekend and watch the 20 part mini series:


    It's some of the best free education out there to get you relatively up to speed with the basics.

    Then if you want to dig a bit deeper as to how we arrived at our modern monetary system and understand exactly how banks make money and who the Federal Reserve is, then take 47 minutes to watch:


  59. Stand up and be heard...give the CFTC a piece of your mind:

  60. OK - I'll write an email, doesn't matter though :)

    When silver busts above 34 next week and gets back on the trendline from late last year on up to 36, that's all that matters.

  61. Turd,

    You don't need to explain anything to people like Mythblasters. Tin foil hats? Please. If people like him/her won't take the time to educate themselves and read all the documentation of the PM suppression scheme, I say tell them to take a hike. GATA has a mountain of info to go through if you care to take the time to read it (I have). They've been at it for over ten years. Ted Butler even longer on the silver story. Everything these people have dug up and exposed has been shown to be totally accurate.

    Many solid PM experts like Jim Sinclair, James Turk, John Embry and Eric Sprott all agree on this. Calling people like this conspiracy nuts is insulting and way off the mark.

    Bay of Pigs

  62. You should read "Grand pappy's" a bit simplistic but a lot of good knowledge. While you can't eat silver, gold or oil. Farmers need oil too farm. Combines don't run on gas or ethanol but diesel.
    All you smart folks get out of the city now. Telecomute whatever but urban areas are a death traps. Where will you get freshwater in NYC? In 2 days during 2003 blackout, sewage flooded Hudson river.

  63. Actually you CAN "eat" gold.

    Even literally...

    .. and drink it too :)

    ... and use it for medicinal purposes...

  64. Heck... you can even smoke it!! hehe

    This is gonna be me in about 2-3 years after our fiat monetary system implodes...

  65. hey, do we have a number for open interest?

  66. I can't seem to post messages here. Test message

  67. @Tyler

    To find Silver's COMEX OI (Open Interest)

    Go here:

    Then, choose Metals in the Asset Class/Totals drop down, choose Silver in the Product Name drop down, then click on Create Report. When you open the pdf file, look for the SI FUT COMEX SILVER FUTURES section. In it you will see Mar11. Look over to the second last column and you'll see the current Open Interest.

  68. Now, let's try this...

    Part I


    I have read Uncommon Wisdom since it started. It's an offshoot of sorts of Money and Markets. I have noticed that Martin Weiss et al represent an example of a group of people who may know what's going on out there, BUT the recommendations they make are largely designed to keep you stuck in paper.

    Nilus Mattive - I have trouble with the fact that he doesn't care if Phillip Morris sells cancer sticks. It's clear he's in it for the money only.

    Larry Edelson - I'm not sure if he realizes just how big the COMEX situation is. I had the feeling he thought silver would correct down that far within a week or two. It didn't happen. I am holding cash in the event he's right. I have the feeling, though, that I'm forever out of the silver market as a buyer and that I need to focus instead on buying up supplies as quickly as I can and get out at the appropriate time.

    Tony Sagami - I'm very suspicious of Tony - what the hell is he doing being a spokesperson for the Chinese economy?? What a sellout... China is a communist country that just merely changed some of its wealth acquisition tools to better further their goals economically. And I get the feeling that he's too close to the action to see any possibility of similar problems they are experiencing NOW to extrapolate to America's past history as an industrial nation. The weird thing is, the man is Japanese. (?)

    Part two follows


  69. Turd,
    many thanks for another fantastic week of analysis and honest opinions.

  70. Part II for pathoeskstra

    As for the rest of the crew, I feel as though they are paper bulls in suits helping people steer their way around mines in the paper world. I have a hunch that they are basically distraction minions for the Fed, whether they know it or not, because their objective is to keep you STUCK in PAPER. At all costs keep you out of the real thing, physical gold and silver, because their high-rolling world can't exist without the rapid expansionary effect of paper money.

    Right now, I feel like many of you are distracted with the paper game of stocks, bonds, options, whatever they're called.

    How many traders are there? How much gold and silver could they buy if they simply closed out everything and went to the coin shop down the street to clean it out? If the public got involved? The danger is, Americans, is that you're going to continue to be distracted by paper and the Indians and Chinese and others are going to continue to accumulate physical, and by the time you notice it, it'll be too late and instead of Jamie Dimon or Jack Miller being your boss, you might be answering to Ti-sái or Bóng-chhī, and you may get caned real bad if you don't learn to pronounce their names right.

    GET OUT OF ALL PAPER! ALL OF IT! You're about to be had by Asia. Just watch...


  71. To mythblasters and anyone else saying "we need proof":

    CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton

    "I believe that there have been repeated attempts to influence prices in the silver markets.  There have been fraudulent efforts to persuade and deviously control that price.  Based on what I have been told by members of the public, and reviewed in publicly available documents, I believe violations to the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) have taken place in silver markets and that any such violation of the law in this regard should be prosecuted."

    Here is a direct link to the CFTC website if you feel like really educating yourself.

    So here you go, that's as close as you are going to get as far as proof of manipulation until the CFTC comes out and presses charges against someone.

    I know, I know, you are probably going to say how do we know yesterday the market was manipulated. The answer is? This shit happens all the time and when you see it enough you pretty much know it when you see it. Like Chilton said, review the public data. That's what Turd does, that what Harvey does, that's what CHILTON did and at least those fine gentlemen have the balls to call a spade a spade.

    Perhaps you should take your veiled attempts to create straw man arguments, your call for Turd to stop criticizing others and go troll somewhere else.

  72. Ginger,
    I think you were asking when I posted my comments about trading gold and silver through the FX markets. I guess it was on Monday, about 2pm Australian Eastern Daylight Savings Time, which is 14 hours ahead of US eastern time, so would've been about midnight on Sunday in NYC. Not sure what time zone Turd uses on his blog.

    Or, you can do a Google search ? I think someone the other day showed us how to do a search for all postings by a person within Turd's blog.

  73. What happened to all the talk about contracts rolling over to next month, OI, folks standing for delivery, and the implosion of the COMEX?

    I thought that was the big event of the week that we were fastening our seat belts for, but it seems to have suddenly disappeared from conversation.

    Did Blythe and the EE get to Turd too, or did I miss something somewhere?

  74. Working my way up through all the posts, sassballsgrandpa, hahahaha, we think alike! Sorry to quote the same speech by Chilton that you did.

    I am a small time accumulator of physical silver myself. I closed out my savings account and have been buying silver on the dips rather than put that into a do nothing savings account. I've been dollar cost averaging my way in for eight months or so now. Thanks to Turd and others For working to educate people and for getting the truth out there!

  75. Adventures in Self Reliance,

    I understand where you're coming from in my own way ( I have never served, though. I'm not allowed because of my deafness, and there are a lot of professions I'm not allowed into, either because of it). I make a little more than you do, but not much. It's been that way during my entire adulthood. I don't know what it's like to make quite a bit or have a lot of responsibility, and then take a large hit, professionally and financially. I know someone who did, being a Navy pilot and pulling a nice salary before suffering seizures that swept him outside of active duty. He even works beside me on several work shifts (we were hired together 6 years ago next month).

    I did the opposite of what you're doing now, building up my position when silver was relatively cheap, and now that silver is outside of my comfort range (because I see that my bang for the buck has disappeared for silver), I must focus on where I can better utilize my money, and that's supplies, since prices have not changed anywhere near like silver has. I can even still buy below wholesale at my work certain survival gear. I want to get that done first before buying other supplies that I have to pay retail for. But I will continue to watch for silver, especially if it falls to the $18-23 range, which is unlikely, but possible.

    Thank you, Sir.

  76. A commenter in ZH left this, was on CNBS today. How ironic that they would openly discuss the possibility of a NWO but won't acknowledge that PMs are the best alternative for a failing currency.

  77. Almost Orchestrated! kinda like almost pregnant ROLFlol I am waiting with baited breath to see the unorchestrated Panic breaking out in JPM's Metals trading offices next week as they have to try to settle all those contracts with Fiat Silver. I can almost hear BM'S Wicked Shreiks of rage from my place here in AZ! Scream Bitch Scream!!! LMFAO

  78. I think many expect that the house of cards can come down in a momement. Not that it will happen it's imply plausible. I can't fight the JP or the feds. My few oz. are not threat. Now take it world wide and we have physical and we dont't have to sell. It's not on margin, or shorted. We are dumb we have taken physical and not paper. A few profit takers sold physical and no paper.
    Blythe you and the feds can talk about protecting your position. But silver is in our hands, not at the banks, you may want to get it but I hear those folks are long lead and copper. As well eith the means to propel said lead and copper at a high FPS.

  79. Taber your correct on the rounds when ag is 3-4 digits you'll have more.Eagles are legal tender property of the Untied Snakes, beware.
    SLW is the best "miner" no shovel or dirty fingernails. The price of ag goes directly to the bottom line our pockets. slv is sleepin with the enemy, I got wootm put options on dem.If you lookin for jr miners you can't go wrong with Bob Moriarty at 321gold, he 's given me 4-5 ten baggers since the blood was knee deep in that cold cold wintre of'08-'09.
    For trading use the banksters system the Pgen as illustrated by Stewart Thomson @ Graceland Updates you can't loose. His Graceland Jr's (he and GoldLion picked the best of the gdxj) site doubled my net since 07/10! They do nat gas uranium and oil jrs also. Well worth the pittance to sub plus humorous to boot.

    It's Po'alima (Aloha Friday in olelo haole)
    an dat means LAULAU & POI!
    a hui hou malama pono

  80. This is The Jeepster again.

    Isn't it obvious?


  81. @Stephen: The numbers reported by COMEX as Standing for Delivery appear as though they're going to be a disappointment for those of us hoping to see Blythe's head in a vice next week.

    I think her head WILL be in a vice, just not in public view, darn it all!

  82. 6a1dbcdc-3c89-11e0-b484-000bcdcb8a73
    I don't think there is a right answer. I started eith the basics. But I still bought silver when cheap.
    Your priorties are yours. Mine maybe different based on money and stuff. But we all need the basics. If you got that covered good on you. I'm doing it on the cheap and I sure don't want to to shoot you.I'm guessing you don't want to die.
    Sure I'd like more money, Who dosen't but I can suck up 30% inflation. I got my food and I'm buying silver. I'm not sure i've done enough but i've done the best I can.

  83. @STEPHEN - Good question. It's getting down to the wire. I'm still trying to wrap my head around which days what type of event happens at the COMEX as this is all new to me. I wish Turd or somebody would come out with a spreadsheet that explained and showed things like:

    a) 2010 historic OI volumes (total)

    b) 2010 historic OI volume decrease in last week of Options expiration day so that we can compare to upcoming dates and really understand if there's a chance of default or not.

    c) Explanation of what all the critical dates are and what takes place on those dates and leading up those dates (i.e. options expiration date, then how many days from there somebody needs to confirm they want to take physical delivery vs rolling contract over, then what is the last day that EEs can try to manipulate price up or down and why to influence OI, which date does OI completely freeze and can no longer be manipulated.)
    d) Impact of OI deliveries on total "Registered " and "Eligible" physical delivery.

    Somebody who understands all this stuff well should really put together an FAQ for the rest of us, cuz I'm seriously confused (mostly because its new to me).

    As for the OI number, here's the last one I could find: 14,016

    What does that mean exactly? My understanding is that the total registered + eligble supply is around 100 Million ounces. With each OI contract representing 5,000 ounces, assuming the OI is frozen here for delivery, this would extract 70,080,000 (70Million) ounces. So *IF* we believe that the OI numbers are real and not fake/manipulated, the default will not yet happen (maybe next time?).

    Further, I think I heard somebody mention Monday will be the last day, but again I haven't fully grasped all this yet, so am not 100% sure. So by Monday those 14,016 contracts could further reduce by some X ammount.

    If you believe the COMEX is lying about the ~100 Million ounces of physical silver, as some other internet entities have. Some believe it may only take between 6,000 to 10,000 contracts to have physical delivery requested upon to bust the COMEX, so by this theory there's still a chance Monday.

    That said, I am still confused as to what the March 11th date actually means (see URL above)... what can happen until March 11th? What happens on March 11th exactly?

    Lastly, there's also the theory that TPTB (the powers that be) (i.e. EE), could just purchase a whackload of SLV shares, demand delivery on those, and then fully deliver on every OI contract without default.

    I really wish somebody who's an expert in all this write a 5 page essay or FAQ, or create a video on *EXACTLY* how this all works. Turd?

  84. some of you folks might want to take a look at Jim Sinclairs site at JSMINESET.COM I havent found too much better analysis than Jim gives on the technical markets- He usually is pretty giving when it comes to answering question about how the markets work. Just Sayin

  85. @stephen

    Seems like the implosion of the COMEX is always talked about, but never comes close. Ignore the end of the world predictions, and just follow the money flow.

    A linear ramp in equities since Aug, a linear ramp in M2 money supply, and a linear ramp in silver, once you ignore the January shenanigans.

    Silver will get back on the trendline soon, that's what makes it attractive to me instead of all the conspiracy theorists. Or the WB nonsense which originated on a Yahoo message board of all places, and people took for gospel.

    Yeah - silver might be money someday, but not any day soon. Until then it's just an investment, a hedge, that can outperform anything else. Except for oil IMO :)

  86. I just checked Santa's site. What does this new regulation he's talking about mean? He believes the shorts will be in a big hurry to buy back their short positions from Monday and on. Turd or Anyone???

    Here is the link :

  87. Does it apply to silver??? Anyone???

  88. Yep, Goldisking- thats what weve been sayin here for a while sit back and watch the fireworks next week- may only be 10,000 Contracts but thats still 50k ozs of PM they gotta come up with i could easily see 43 OZ next week- may not break the comex- but should be quite a nice profit.

  89. Peralta

    JSMineset is already a big favorite around here. Home of Santa (Jim Sinclair) himself, and original home of Trader Dan. Turd will vouch for that. One of his original inspirations I suspect.

  90. It's true what NFL said. I've been hearing of a potential COMEX default for a couple of years, and possibly such talk has been going even before then. What has changed is that the total ammounts of ounces that the COMEX itself reports has been steading decreasing each and every month, and if we believe their own numbers it's down to about 100 Million ounces. So this makes it far more likely that they could default anytime between now and the next year or two.

    Even if they do default, what exactly will happen, and how that will impact the larger markets globally and the economy there is a very wide varied ammount of opionions from simply no longer selling contracts or winding them down until more supply is acquired right up to this being the black swan trigger for the next global financial crisis.

    The theory for the latter goes something along the lines of panic hits the market as people realize no more physical silver is available (except for what miners can produce - which is far outstripped by demand), and possibly there may be lies about how much there was in the first place. This could trigger a panic in the physical gold market which then results in the BoS (buyers of size - millionaires, billionaires, central banks & governments) to also request full delivery on all their contracts. Given many governments are suggesting that the existing financial system needs reform and that gold should be part of what determines the value of a currency, this would be a VERY BIG deal, because if you have no physical gold, you (that BoS) will have no real money after the financial system is reformed. This could thus create an even wide spread panic in the stock markets and trigger a full blown global crisis.

    Who knows IF and WHEN the COMEX may ever get busted, but if even a fraction of the catestrophic potential is possible, I would expect that the CFTC along with US Gov/Congress/Senate pass urgent overnight game changing rules to prevent such a catastrophy.

    If you have doubts that any of this could even happen, that's ok, there's still PLENTY of reasons why silver will continue to go up in value. So yeah, there's no need to buy into all these theories, although if they happen it could be a very big deal.

  91. Peralta,

    Thanks for the comment. But, isn't it 10,000 x 5,000 oz = 50 mil oz?

    Plus, it stated this FINRA 4320 goes in effect on Monday, Feb, 28th, 2011.

    Everyone knew this all along or am I missing smoething here???

  92. pretty sure Jim is sayin the game is up for the Non reporting Corporations and that they will be trying to cover as many shorts as they can before the new law goes into effect on 2/28

  93. Yep right you are 50m - got in a hurry and didnt proof my comment Sorry

  94. Turdle GG, it! It is in Monday's 'You'll Only Be Right Once' post. ...And wow.. what a bunch of terrific information. I appreciate it so much. ..Haven't read all the way through yet but copied/pasted to my notebook so that I can go over it better when I'm not so sleepy! :] ..Thanks so much again.. ..genuinely appreciate.

  95. @JimmyTheHand: Trolling? I was raising what I believe to be a valid point. Sorry board monitor, I didn't realize it was wrong to question things. Obviously that's tongue in cheek; I don't care what you think.

    I still don't see why it's legitimate to lambaste FXM considering they probably have more analytical data on markets, past and present, than 99.9999% of the members on this board, including Turd.

    I think there is likely to be manipulation as well; yet I can't prove it and don't think it's fair to criticize others for not wearing the same tinfoil hat as me when no one is in a position to do so because there is a clear lack of proof; doing that is silly in my opinion.

    Guilt until proven innocent right guys? Who's with me?!

  96. mythblasters,

    there are tons, I mean TONS, of things you cannot ever prove to be true, but still known among people to be true. Step out and watch the night sky. Hopefully you'll know what I mean.

    Now... where is everyone? Any comments on my question???

  97. The day I can't order up a few gift boxes of Eagles from, then I know there is a problem. Right now there are 150 or so of them available, just like last week when I checked. Was going to buy some, but told myself why bother, too hard to flip, much easier to buy/sell paper silver.

    Am I right or am I wrong? All this talk about a shortage in physical doesn't make sense to me. If JPM and Sprott own all the real silver, how come I can still buy as much physical as I could possibly afford on the Internet?

  98. @Silversurfer

    Okay this is what I have been able to piece together with google. As I am sure you are aware, the COMEX schedule for silver is posted here

    First on Feb 24th, the last trade day. After, contracts for that month can no longer be traded.

    On Feb 25, is the last day that a long future contract holder can submit a notice that they want delivery.

    The shorts then have the month of march to deliver.

    Your confusion with March 11th is because it is March 2011 :)

    As for the deal with Monday, that is when the number is confirmed (I think). Non-commercials are delayed to the next business day. The number you have gave should be an estimate.

    Finally that ~100 million. I think that is the wrong number. I am trying to find the source but my google fu is weak. I suspect that number is total silver in the vaults. This is the silver held by the longs and the shorts. Right now there are a lot of longs that will not give up there silver unless the price goes up up up. I seem to recall trader Dan breaking down the numbers but I can't find that post.

  99. Scisco,

    I think you're referring to the Feb/2011 contract month.
    For Mar/11 contract, First notice day is Feb, 28th.
    Please check again...

  100. @Silversurfer

    Eurika I found it. Comex inventories available for delivery.

    As a note. If anyone finds an error PLEASE correct me.

  101. @NFL - Shortage of retail silver that you can buy at Tulving and your local coin/bullion stores is not indicative of the entire physical market. For starters industrial + photography + jewlery accounts for over 80% of demand. See here:

    It's not shortage in retail silver that will cause any kind of panic. Our demand is TINY. It's not WE that are going to bust the COMEX, it's the big guys.

    Also don't equate a coin/bullion dealer or even the mints TEMPORARILY running out of supply to sell with silver having run out completely. So long as they comit to a delivery date estimate, in theory there is still silver to sell to retail investors. The COMEX represents the silver for the other 50-80% of the market. That's what we're watching very closely.

  102. I don't want to sound like a broken record, but it looks like there MIGHT be a chance that the final March OI is going to be under 8,000 -- so perhaps it would be useful to consider the reasons why the silver spot increased in December and see if those same reasons might be in play in March.

  103. GoldIsKing. We are both correct. I was referring to Feb/2011. However, the Marth/11 reference was because SilverSurfer was confused about the Mar/11 notation. The 11 is a year not a day.

  104. @Scisco, thanks a lot for your answers & research I will read it carefuly, but then am off to bed.

    Have a good night everyone :)

  105. I am learning this as I go myself. I look at it as a win win! Thanks to anyone who reads my posts and points out errors.

  106. ewc58

    Earlier this morning you asked about copper deposits in general and Western Copper in particular. I responded by basically saying be careful these things take a lot longer than you think.

    So tonight I figure I'll take a look at Western Copper and see what's up and first thing I see is the Casino Deposit! Holy Sh*tballs! I remember that one from last time around! The Casino Deposit is one of the ones that gave me such a bad taste in my mouth for Copper-Gold deposits in the first place. Here is a little snippet I copied from the fact sheet on the Casino Deposit:

    "The Casino deposit was discovered in 1969. Between 1992 and 1995 Pacific Sentinel Gold Corp. performed a major drilling program and completed a scoping study. After obtaining the property, Western Copper reworked the project significantly and issued a pre-feasibly study in August 2008."

    Bottom line is that the discovery hole was drilled on this sucker 42 years ago! I actually owned Pacific Sentinel myself for a time in the late 90's. Folks have been able to sell stock and pay management salaries for 42 years on this "deposit", but that's the only gold that has come out of the ground so far.

    The last paragraph on the "fact sheet" has the real punchline, the clincher, that is supposed to get people to buy the stock right now:

    "This new resource is being incorporated into a new pre-feasibil- ity study due in the the first quarter of 2011."

    Caveat Emptor, baby! Caveat Emptor!

  107. It's official:
    Now that I've bad-mouthed Western Copper, that baby is going to the moon!

  108. This comment has been removed by the author.

  109. @mythblasters - being skeptical and not wishing to drink from the bathtub Kool-Aid bowl is a virtue, for the most part. But choosing to ignore the almost daily demonstrations here on TFMR of manipulation methods, the context for why such manipulation can work, the motives and tools of those doing the manipulating, etc. is... a bit silly. Calling the Turd out for making such a call WITHOUT bothering to read the reams of supporting analysis he (and others) have already provided is downright dumb. You didn't (initially) sound THAT dumb, hence the potential troll label.

    Go back check the chart, look at the time, the number of trades, the duration, and come back to tell us with a straight face what YOUR hypothesis is.

    OTOH, FMX Connect may have to be worried about litigation or loss of business (or DIRECT retaliation of some kind). I did not find Turd's critique withering and hostile so much as bewildered. The FMX piece seemed to me to be one of broiling frustration at recognizing the problem , yet being powerless to change anything:
    "We won’t use the word manipulate, in part because of our libertarian bent, but it’s getting ridiculous. Where there used to be 50 5-lot thieves on the floor now there are 5 Too-Big-To-Fail banks with infinite fed-sponsored balance sheets doing whatever they please."

  110. Here's the original conversation, in case anyone wants to wade in without having to go back throug hundreds of comments:

    ewc58 said...

    Turd, it's the comfort that comes from knowing you're in the right place at the right time. We read the tea leaves, we placed our bets, and are in it for the long run. BM's poop sorties like yesterday's can't ever take that away from us. Hell, we're back to 32.72, she can't even keep it down for very long. Only gave us another BTFD.

    Eric, do you have any exposure to Cu miners? One I really like is Western Copper (WRN). After Northern Dynasty's Pebble deposit, sources show that WRN has more "pounds in the ground" than anyone.

    Any thoughts from anyone on WRN or any other Cu miners?

    I also like PAL and Colossus for exposure to Palladium, would welcome good palladium picks as well.
    February 25, 2011 6:46 AM

    Eric said...


    No, at this point in time I don't have any copper miners, or juniors with copper-gold deposits. Not that I am necessarily opposed.

    As I've mentioned, my last big turn with junior miners was 10-15 years ago. One of the lessons I came away with at that time was that it was easy for me to get very enthusiastic about some of these deposits, huge numbers of ounces and tonnage, etc. But it often took more years and more $$Billions to get these things actually moving to production than what I expected.

    Gold in the ground for pennies an ounce sounds great, until you wait 10 years and it's still there in the ground. Look for some kind of catalyst that tells you there's going to be some kind of progress. A JV, a major permit, a major new financing, something.
    February 25, 2011 8:51 AM

  111. GoldisKing
    That new reg referred to by Santa relates to shares, so I hope that he, in his typically cryptic way, is alluding to the large short position in his company, TRE.

  112. ewc58

    By the way, I'm not trying to put any kind of beatdown on you in any way, shape, or form. You asked an honest question and I'm just trying to give an honest answer, in the hope that all readers on this blog can benefit from my experience on this matter. Like I've said before, folks can learn from my battle scars, or ignore me, or trade opposite of me as they choose. I just got the feeling that maybe you were falling into one of the same sinkholes I fell into myself back in the day. If somebody out there can avoid the same, then maybe it was all worthwhile.

    The Kessler's is pretty well kicking in. Eric out.

  113. "Guilt until proven innocent right guys? Who's with me?!"

    Proven, maybe, but at least it's documented and admitted:

    Also, in my opinion, anyone with 2 eyes and 1 brain should be able to see it.

  114. Courtesy of Jim Sinclair:

    New Rules Will Cause Panic For Shorts
    Posted: Feb 25 2011 By: Jim Sinclair Post Edited: February 25, 2011 at 9:12 pm

    Filed under: General Editorial

    Dear Friends,

    Between now and Monday, February 28th be prepared for panicked short sellers who cannot make delivery to try every trick in the book to buy back their short positions.

    The following is information from Dr. Jim Decosta:

    Here is the URL:

    Quote: There’s 3 new laws gaining attention in the NSS market reform arena: FINRA 4320 goes into effect on 2/28/11. It mandates 13 day buy-ins for open delivery failures FINALLY applying to shares of non-reporting corporations. FINRA 2010-043, also starting on 2/28/11 reinstates the “short sale exempt” (SSE) marking requirements for trade reporting and the OATS system. Those MMs accessing the bona fide MM exemption from executing pre-borrows or “locates” before admittedly naked short sales must now FORMALLY acknowledge the accessing of that universally-abused exemption. Being that these trades are theoretically being made to “inject liquidity” then the excuse to hide the related trade data from the public’s eyes goes out the window. You can’t have it both ways and claim the bona fide MM exemption and later claim that the related trade data needs to be kept secret because it might reveal a “proprietary trading strategy”.

    Truly bona fide MMs that are able to legally access that universally-abused exemption cover their naked short position on the next downtick after their short sale when buy side liquidity is in need of being ejected as share prices fall. The 3rd new rule which is in effect now states that the offers and bids that MMs post must be of approximately the same size. No longer can the offers be of 1 million shares and the offsetting bid good for the minimum 5,000 shares.

    The verbiage in 4320 is especially well done as it FINALLY puts the clearing firms that aid and abet this crime wave on the spot. With the FFETF, which is made up of 25 different agencies, now on the scene the transparency has increased markedly. You can imagine how critical the lack of transparency is to a crime involving selling nonexistent securities and then refusing to ever deliver that which you sold AFTER being allowed access to the funds of the investor being defrauded.

    Here are the links to the rules SR-FINRA-2010-028 and SR-FINRA-2010-043:

    Notice the part I marked in bold in the quote above:
    "FINRA 4320 goes into effect on 2/28/11. It mandates 13 day buy-ins for open delivery failures FINALLY applying to shares of non-reporting corporations."

  115. 5400 Contracts stood for delivery, before options, in December (Harvey Organ archives). That number was pretty high if I recall.

    Another several million ounces got added as options during the month. So it's not just open interest.

    We need somebody to build a Google spreadsheet showing the number standing for delivery + total options exercised each month to show total demand (Harvey Organ archives again).

    I believe you'll see a nicely rising trend over the past 3 years or so.

  116. This comment has been removed by the author.

  117. kudos to whoever built this spreadsheet that was posted earlier today they really put a lot of time into this--

  118. sorry looks like someone named sassballsgrandpa Posted that sheet- Should have read further into the thread. Nice work though

  119. Ok, I'm not gone quite yet. Just realized I had bookmarked Jim Willie's latest a few days ago and forgot to read it. Wow. He doesn't just hit the nail on the head. He pretty much burned down the house! Must Read.

  120. Don't get mad for being called what you are myth...

    "I still don't see why it's legitimate to lambaste FXM"... Yet you see it as legitimate to come on to Turds site and lambaste him? Not only are you a troll you are a hypocrit to.

    "Guilt until proven innocent right guys? Who's with me?!". Again, another straw man argument/comment to inflame, provoke and waste peoples time. Good thing I type fast.

    Hey banman and Eric, thank you for the links to those articles!

    CD, I totally agree with you.

    nfl, I loved your question because I was asking the same thing several months ago. At that time, Harvey Organ helped me understand the difference between the retail sales of silver (us little guys) and the investment sales of silver (the dealers).


    4187 standing for delivery, -10072 contracts out...


  122. @Arkadiuz, are you sure you read that correctly? I read that document as 10072 OI, and 4187 as PNT (Privately Negotiated Transactions).

  123. So, I think we can now gladly put a rest to the Wynter Benton discussions.

  124. By the way what was the name of the guy on the other blog that claimed to be a former COMEX chair? He actually predicted around 4k to remain standing.

  125. Look at the older chart - 3 days ago:

    So you compare. ;)

  126. @Arkadiuz, I dont follow your logic. What does the Feb 18th document have to do with the Feb 24th document. Wouldn't the 24th have all the latest updates?

  127. @Eric... that article is a TOUR DE FORCE !!!

    Turd, you MUST link to it in your next post so everyone can have a good weekend read (if there are no contractual/copyright issues)

  128. I agree with Arkadiusz -

    The CME number shows a decrease of 10072 contracts for a remainder of 4187 March 11 contracts standing for delivery.

    But the positive thing is the increase of 9044 May 11 contracts. It looks like all but 1028 of the March contracts rolled over to May where they might still stand for delivery, and 1028 were bought off for cash premiums.

    Please correct me if I'm wrong.

    This does not take into account new May contracts opened today.

    So, it looks like each contract was bought off for about $50,000 X 1028 = over $50 million JPM had to pay out in bribes this month, chump change to those bastards.

    I'm wondering why so many chose to roll over to May rather than stand for delivery or take the cash bribe?

  129. "I'm wondering why so many chose to roll over to May rather than stand for delivery or take the cash bribe? "

    A likely scenario: Imagine you are Morgue/FED, you'd have a hard time sleeping if 14,000 stood for delivery in March. You therefore contact those guys offering them, say, 20% premium to close the contracts. They accept 120% payment back and then immediately invest 100% of them in May contracts to keep the game going, which is equivalent to accepting the payment in March with the only difference in letting the situation look less dire for Morgue/FED.

    Remember they are TRADERs rather than us INVESTORs. They are not trying to get the physicals @CRIMEX. They are after cash so it's in their interest to keep the comical farce going and use EE as their cash ATM during each delivery month rather than forcing a default to end it once for all.

  130. I gave this a lot of thouhgt and I have decided to change my strategy on PM quite drastically:

    Instead of waiting to have enough cash to buy physical I will enter the market in a more "pro-active" way: If it's really Blythe doing what many suppose she does, than - surely enough - this will not stop now until May (where we might see another chance that the Comex will finally run out of Silver).

    So I just have signed up for a day trader account that enables me to trade CFDs (similar to futures). So whenever the wicked witch does her stuff, I will be right there to enter a whoppy long position for the next hour or so.

    Of course, there are two parameters that need to be true for this to work:

    1. Silver is going upwards in the long term
    2. Blythe does what she does

    I think I will keep you posted about how I am getting along. My account will probably open within the next ten days or so.

  131. PS: I forgot! Of course, the only reason I do CFDs is to get more fiat money faster that I can swap for physical.

  132. Good morning everyone

    Mythblasters employs the same reasoning that allowed OJ to remain a free man. In its worst form, it goes like this: Because you cannot provide 100% proof (QED), therefore you have 0%. In our courts the statistical problem of never being 100% sure is handled as “reasonable doubt.” But 95% sure will usually get a “guilty” verdict from a jury, unless you have OJ’s lawyers.
    Remember statistics from college? We can NEVER mathematically prove a hypothesis with 100% confidence. The FDA has the strictest standard at a 99.99 % confidence level for drug research. Academic journals in most fields require only a 95% confidence level.
    Mythblasters has actually asked a valid question. How confident are we that there is manipulation? For most of us, the evidence argues for a high confidence level.
    We can’t be 100% sure even when Blythe Masters admits it publically, because Mythblasters can always ask, “What if she is lying to get publicity for her new book?”Asking a question might remove weight from one side of the scales of justice, but it adds none to the other. GATA, Jim, Turk, Dan, Harvey, Turd, and others have put lots of weight on the guilty side. What is on the “not guilty” side of the scale? “Tension in the markets” is plausible, but Pining for the Fjords pointed out that the volume did not support that theory in this case. If there is no manipulation, we need to hear a theory with that accounts for the “evidence” of price action for the past 20 years.
    We spend our entire lives making daily decisions without a 100% confidence level. We have ancient sayings that help people deal with decisions and probability. I have recently heard “Where there is smoke, there is fire.” We laugh at those who don’t have the common sense to make decisions even when there is a bit of doubt. As Cheech & Chong (1973) taught us in the story of Chebornek, if it looks, feels, and smells like a turd, don’t step on it.

  133. As always, awesome stuff from Bill Haynes and Dan Norcini on the Weekly Metals Wrap over at KWN. Trader Dan basically calls "Bullshit" on the COT report. Trader Dan: "Something just doesn't seem right to me."

    Going to settle in now and listen to the Jim RIckards interview as well. I never ever miss Rickards.

  134. "They are after cash so it's in their interest to keep the comical farce going and use EE as their cash ATM during each delivery month rather than forcing a default to end it once for all."

    Good point, couldn't agree more.. those large traders want to milk this scheme as long as they can. I don't think most of them though realize they won't have the chance to get their hands on physical when the scheme finally does play up, or they'll have to pay huge premiums for the physical and will lose whatever premiums that were previously paid to them by the Morgue.

    "PS: I forgot! Of course, the only reason I do CFDs is to get more fiat money faster that I can swap for physical."

    Same here. I use CFDs as well. My tips: start slow until you're worked in, the paper game is confusing and designed to force you out of your money. Don't use stops, rather be glued in front of your monitor, because you'll always be able to make a better decision than an order, even if you use complex adjustable stops.
    And finally, start with small leverage and work your way up.. keep enough buffer on your margin use.

    What is especially dangerous are dips that you buy that look like they're the final dip, then it drops some more. Then it drops again, and you buy some more and still have some left on your margin and think everything is okay because that got to be the final dip, from there it can just go up. It then trades a little sideways and you're pretty much confirmed this is it, it has consolidated, and you're in the clear. Then it gets hit again.

    Happened to me in January, up to 31, then down to 29, used it to buy, then down to 28, then to 27, then to 26,5.. was really high on my margin use and had already, in panic mode, freed up some cash elsewhere to not lose my position, which I didn't need because 26,5 finally turned out to be the bottom. But that REALLY wasnt good for my nerves.

    I played the physical game for quite some time and was always successful, and thought the paper game is just as easy, just you'll profit more.. I was fooled, it isnt, and if you're not really careful you're margined out of your position real quick and are left without the money you started with.

    Best of luck


  135. So Only 4187 standing for delivery as of Friday Close and possible that few more will roll over or settle for cash on Monday.

    What effect this will have on the spot price???


  136. Eric,

    Been in the "juniors" since 2001, scars and all. Have built a seven figure portfolio by reading, learning, and sticking to my guns. Readers here should pay strict attention to your observations on Camino Minerals, slide #7. You need to know where you are to know where you're going! There are huge rewards in this "junior" market, especially in silver miners. But, you need a keen appreciation for the life cycle of a mine and associated risks. Thanks for a good post.

  137. Thanks Markus,
    I have not fared well in paper. Physical is up 17% for me since October. Keeping 95% in physical.

  138. Just a rhetorical question, but do we *really* want to force the Comex and JPM to bust? Would that not potentially cause an end-of-the-world scenario? Would it not be better to have more time in relative stability so we can have more time to prepare, considering it inevitably busts on its own anyway?

  139. Tremendous interview from Jim Rickards at KWN. Talking QE, SDR's, and paper-physical divergence. Big section in the middle about SDR's.

    Here's a couple of quotes:

    On SDR's: "We're getting closer to implementation"

    On paper/physical divergence: "Unless investors are willing to take physical delivery then the paper game can continue indefinitely and so you really need to stand up for what you believe in and get physical, and that's one way to not only preserve your wealth but also call the bluff of the people on the other side of the trade."

  140. Also - Is this legit? The US Mint selling uncirculated silver eagles for $26?

  141. @ Pablo
    It's a subscription to a catalog and you get a free coin i think. So essentially yes


  143. Every Hero needs a villian. TF is our hero. It is a great compliment to him to have Blythe Blasters as his arch nemesis!

  144. @22f24756-405d-11e0-b5b3-000bcdcb5194
    Good Catch ...

  145. Rui, likely correct.

    If a reasonable observer looks at the March OI #'s, all one see's is a trend down. After Monday's #'s, I'd be surprised if it's even 1500. Message: no problem on the comex.

    But after yesterday's takedown, why stick around only to rollover on Friday? If the intention is to take profits, rollover on Wednesday or at the latest on Thursday before/during the takedown.

    Ergo, if one stuck around, presumably they have the $'s to receive delivery. Obviously not their intention so the message might be this is not gambling - they surely must know they'll obtain a higher premium than are greater than the lost profits on Wednesday.

  146. This comment has been removed by the author.

  147. @TIM
    Do you know if you can order any amount. For instance if you order 50 subscriptions will you receive 50 coins at roughly $31 dollars a piece. If so, there is a nice arb opportunity

  148. Thanks to Eric, I have a new thread.

  149. If Comex bust or not, I would keep betting against EE with leverage in paper, and channelize my profits to physical.

    No stops (get glued to terminal), play with large margin, buy far contracts and halfway sell and rollover. This is what Santa taught me. And I am religiously doing what he advised.

    If you cannot fully beat them, at least some pin pricks would make me happy till other 99% wakes up and buys physical.

  150. The more I read and hear today (KWNs Jim Richards: SDR, currencies back by asset and the whole setup of a SDR, and this with lots of connotations of Global Debt Jubilee), a few things come to my mind

    Global Prosperity program, NESARA, RV, G.E.T Team, $47Trillion.....etc etc

    I first knew of this from THIS website when someone posted the G.E.T Team Conference call and I have been doing a lot of research on it....(a lot of people mostly over here will say that's all crap)I will just say that do your own research and if you have got time, do listen to the various G.E.T team conference call.

  151. It's not shortage in retail silver that will cause any kind of panic. Our demand is TINY. It's not WE that are going to bust the COMEX, it's the big guys.

    Also don't equate a coin/bullion dealer or even the mints TEMPORARILY running out of supply to sell with silver having run out completely. So long as they comit to a delivery date estimate, in theory there is still silver to sell to retail investors. The COMEX represents the silver for the other 50-80% of the market. That's what we're watching very closely.

    Thank you, SilverSurfer. My point is, what you have to do is continue buying silver through the retail channels so that eventually, over time, the retail channel starts to pull more and more silver away from the 50-80% of the market that normally never touches retail. That is why I told you people to get out of paper, period, and focus on taking away the silver to an extent that the industrial users will start hoarding the metal themselves to prevent assembly line shutdowns. We have to impact them. You're right. COMEX is basically a battleground between various factions of the paper silver market. Just like in the middle east - it's a battle between various factions of arab society. Do you want to be a part of it? No. You're not an arab or someone with some stake in the outcome of the battle, even though it has an impact on you politically and at the gas pump. Same story in the paper silver market. If you are here on TF's blog, you should not be part of that battle, either, in the direct sense. Instead of being a landowner in developed countries with gasoline storage tanks on the property, filling up ahead of the arab turmoil, you are a physical silver/gold owner piling up the metal ahead of the battle in the paper markets. That is how I see our role in this battle.

    Part II follows.


  152. Part II...

    You see, it used to be that silver was largely in the possession of humans or otherwise used in jewelry and a limited number of implements used in daily life. That is NOT the case today, and that is why we don't have the impact on the price we want. We NEED to go back to those conditions of silver being owned outright by noncommercial humans with a limited amount used in manufacturing. This is the only way we can do it, trust me. China and India are already making it happen. There are BILLIONS of people living in these two countries alone, and they have a deep tradition in buying silver/gold for religious, financial security, traditional reasons. We do not have that in America because we have been DISEDUCATED away from silver/gold ownership as a way to protect ourselves from financial insecurity. If all the silver really exists in COMEX, at today's prices, that only represents a market of $3.36 BILLION. THAT is only a tiny fraction of the total economy of the US, people! It is less than 0.04% of the economy! Imagine what would happen if we just took *** 1% *** of the economy and put that into silver. You're looking at a 25-bagger here, MINIMUM. You're cheating yourself by staying in paper.

    I told you folks. This was going to happen. As of today, 10,000 contracts were sliced off, leaving OI under 5,000 contracts. I KNEW this was going to happen. It's a battle between factions of the paper market. If you want to end this battle, you have to take away their silver or reduce the amount available that it starts to affect the industrial users.


  153. @Markus:

    Thanks for those ones. Totally agreed. I will try my best to make my way up slowly and keep an eye especially on the "buffer" on my margin (in fact, that was one of the first rules I made to myself ...)

    I'll keep you posted as soon I have s/t to report.