Monday, February 28, 2011

A Wild Ride on The Globex

This afternoon's action even got the attention of ZH:

As mentioned earlier, rather than suspect the EE, I'm more inclined to believe that today's Globex craziness is more directly related to this being "put up or shut up day" in the March silver contract. Either way, however, we should all be very impressed by the resiliency of the buyers. I'm standing by what I mentioned earlier about $35 looking imminent. We'll see.
More this evening. TF

ps Read this post from Trader Dan and look at the two charts:
First, note the incredible CCI chart. Picture this chart in your head the next time someone tries to argue the whole "deflation vs inflation" thing with you.
Second, look at the long bond chart. Note that the current bottom was marked by an UP outside reversal day. Always be on the lookout for them. There are few technical indicators as prescient when predicting trend reversals.


  1. First and SGS has update of 21 mil oz of silver up for delivery

  2. @ Falcon15:

    I hear ya, and I need to fully embrace that attitude. 92% of my net worth is in physical, while 7% is in mining shares. But it's that 7% that gets me stressed out. The pile of metal I have buried in the woods? *wink* I don't sweat that at all.

  3. Turd,

    I agree. Today's close impressed me. Along with the gains in CDE and GPL today, I added at the close... Couldn't resist. Here's hopping we pop through Asian trading and into tomorrow's open :-)


  4. TeMpTek

    I've been keeping my eyes and ears open and I'm just not seeing much hedging going on in the miners I follow.

    Over the past 10-15 years all the gold miners got their heads handed to them from hedging. Some went under completely. They all got out of hedging totally. Gold miners and Silver miners are all the same people so I think the lesson is still well learned.

    I've seen those articles recently about "oh, there's some silver hedging going on", but so far I can't find it.

    The place you usually find out is when they report quarterly earnings. When there's a big miss, the truth comes out about how much they lost on their hedges.

    For now, I say buy the ones you like, that are showing good chart action, and don't worry about it.

  5. HOOLLY CHIT....they ramped ANV SLW GPL GORO Heavy into the close......woooooohooooooooo.....those sneaky baastids

  6. Also he shows graph chatter of silver iShares and Oi being super bullish today. Its either default now or in May, very nice.

  7. I believe GPL, AG, and AUN are unhedged from what I've read.

  8. $HUI close was Extremely leg up coming

  9. SDRG is a super bargain right now with having properties in China with perhaps the most silver in that country. Their management has been odd with lawsuits but hopefully with new investors watching their back they can make some good. Watch them fill the gap towards .17 this week.

    One other thing, this stock was trading a few yeArs ago at $2.50 when silver was $15/oz. It's a lottery ticket due to their management but the payout can be very huge.0

  10. What a day for the home team. Big grin for CDE. Ditto ear to ear for GPL.

    All great, but it was BULM that really brought it home. Wow! Gotta find out who or what decided to dive in so big today...

  11. Wow!.. I left earlier in the middle of a downturn and come back to a nice recovery and GPL sprinting to the finish line! :D

    I had not seen CZN's news.. THANKS!.. This will be another GPL by year's end?? I believe it will be.. it's only a matter of time. They seem to be doing a good job of making certain that all Ts are crossed and to dot all the perverbial Is. Also, I think they will get a good boost in March when the environmental impact study is completed.

    I like coming back home to some good news!

  12. Larry,
    BULM was kinda just sitting there in my portfolio for the past several months so I sold last week to buy into better plays. Then over the weekend Jonathan Lebed started sending out emails touting it as his 'new #1 2011 pick' to replace his 2011 #1 pick from last month. "/ ....I knew it would pop today from all the email blasts ........and sure enough did.

  13. I noticed they are now using the term 'turds bottom' on zh! Makes me laugh. Turd don't be upset, your famous!

  14. Thanks Turd for the info and insight. Been lurking a couple of weeks and decided to join in.

    Agree with your interpretation of the 1:25 pm silver move. Given what happened last time this was not enough heft to be EE.

    In the big picture I'm a holder, but have done some uncharacteristic day trades because...well there was oppotunity wasn't there? It was while doing some DD on those trades I found your blog.

    I don't expect silver price to keep the pace upward thru the month as this just isn't that interesting a month but holding sure makes sense :)

    Or maybe it's gold's turn to carry the weight?

  15. Dear diary,

    Today I BTFD in HL, and I added to my already egregious positions in AAU and UGL...

    I can't tell any of my co-workers, because if they knew, I would just DIE of embarrassment.


  16. Persona: Again, all I ask is that we avoid using the terms "good entry point" and "turd's bottom" in the same sentence.

  17. I have been a believer, I mean a full on, drank the koolaid and came back for more kind of believer, in silver since the fall of 2010. I had distrusted the markets, banks, bankers and insurance companies for much longer. But it is surreal to actually watch it happen. Silver rises by leaps and bounds, commodities o through the roof, and yet the mainstream yabbers on about meaningless statistics. Baghdad Bob had nothing on these guys.

  18. Well, commodities might 'o' through the roof, but I meant go. And I have no comment on Turd's Bottom, other than to say it sounds a bit like a Hobbit hangout.

    BTW, another name for the inhabitants of this blog could be Turdburghers, despite the unfortunate double entendre.

  19. Although, name-wise, some other wag cleverly proposed Klingons, which is almost a triple entendre.

  20. That is right! Dependent on CONTEXT Turds Bottom should be regarded as an exit only.
    Confirmation word: nongame (Coincidence? I think not...)

  21. Chin Music,
    I know. ..I have very mixed feelings re: Lebed and NIA for that matter. On the one hand they seem to have a reputation for being pumpers. On the other hand they DO SEEM to come out with some great miner picks. I have watched them for a while and bought some of their suggestions and have done very well.

    Eh.. I guess it all boils down to the same thing. ..You can't take any one opinion and go with it when it comes to where to invest your money. You have to be willing to do your own research and DD.. right?

    It just seemed that Larry was wondering about the source of BULM's rocket ride up today so I wanted to shed some light on it for him. I did not buy back in to BULM ....although I wish I'd never sold! :)

  22. ewc58,

    thanks for posting that update from CZN. When they say "With the Environmental Assessment nearing completion, the major operational parameters that will factor into the project implementation are now being determined..." does that imply that they are treating the granting of environmental approval as a fait accompli?

    Do you have any views on the risk of environmental approval NOT being given?

  23. ZH's bangin the gang bangers! hehehehehehehehehehe! Silver closes 1:25pm est & gold 1:30pm est. rat basturds drowning in vermin's own stewed shorts!! hehehehehehehehehe Oh my hell the goonzi's put off the avalanche of margin calls another day!! Muahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha! I hear the porkin pig men bankster fraudsters squealing all the way to 1600 penn ave. for a change of laws before the paper silver ponzi implodes! Yup! The world awakening to rat bastards weakest link; delivery of physical silver!! Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha We the people will have an honest money circulated amongst us; free we are!! It comes as a natural consequence of paper printing to infinity!! Each ounce of physical silver taken on delivery is a vote for change, we the people believe in!! Vote as often as you like and for as many ounces within your means!! It's the only vote which really counts in takin out the EE! Truth being the same yesterday, today, and forever!! Paper money reaches it's intrinsic value; Zerooooooooooo! Silver shines and lights up the way for a free people to have an honest monetary system!! In truth we trust! All others have paper money reduced to worthlessness!!

  24. Ginger, don't you hate it when that happens? I've held and held onto some and sold right before they exploded so I can empathize. I considered selling BULM quite a few times over the last few months but hung in there knowing they have a great story, good company, etc. Glad I did now. Hopefully this rise won't be a short-lived event. I really don't think so, all things considered. I'm thinking that they haven't even begun to warm up. Once they move up in exchange, look out...

  25. Rebound was heart lifting this afternoon. Hard to see the road with all this chaffe being dumped by Feds, bullion banks and robotic trolls. But Silver & Gold are speaking loud and clear about trouble ahead for the dollar. If you can't hear it you drank to much Kool-aid.

  26. Sprott is an investor in CZN...

  27. Larry,
    I agree with you. I may get back in. I only held a small position..but I sure wish I hadn't liquidated it! Want more reason to get excited about BULM?? ...With the way oil prices are heading right this:

    Bullion Monarch Mining (BULM) just announced a few minutes ago that its subsidiary, EnShale Energy, has received a notice of allowability by the United States Patent and Trademark Office for a patent on its oil shale processing technology! EnShale has also applied for patents in the foreign countries of Australia, Canada, Brazil, Estonia, and China!

    Read the news immediately:

    Since its inception, EnShale has reached several important corporate milestones:

    ~~ Acquired approximately 4,650 acres of oil shale leases from the state of Utah.

    ~~ Had an independent geologist estimate an oil resource of over 650 million barrels.

    ~~ Developed technology for processing oil shale to extract oil.

    ~~ Engineered and constructed a pilot plant capable of processing up to 35 barrels of oil per day.

    ~~ Received a notice of allowability for a patent on its extraction process.

    BULM's EnShale Energy estimates that it can produce oil for an operating cost of less than $30 dollars a barrel! EnShale is currently using its pilot plant to test and improve the efficiency of the EnShale process and develop new technology to enhance the process!

  28. Ginger ... this all can be a tough racket ... nice to have you around ... hope you do well :-)


    Could be donation time to Turd again.

    Thanks everyone... all the mining stocks I've purchased were confirmed by people here and I'm not complaining about any of them, but my GPL was up 17.92% today.

  30. If you are looking for a good price on 10 OZ bars check this out. With Spot near 34.00 this is one of the cheaper buys I've seen today. More or less one buck over spot.

  31. Turd,

    I was going to email you this question but I didnt want to scroll through the great video from the weekend again but this question pertains to your blog.

    We all know this keynesian expirement is coming to an end.

    The question I have for you, is other than the obvious of investing in PMs, Oil, copper, wheat, anything valued in FRN's etc....what else is the ferguson family doing to "prepare accordignly" ?


  32. Anyone else see a pennant on the silver daily chart?

  33. Perth Mint out of 100oz silver bars, as well as 20oz.

  34. How does one make a copy-and-pasted link into a hyperlink in the comments section?

  35. Silver closed at 33.935 on the electronic access market at the CME

    All I have to say is WOW! what a comeback.
    I agree with the Turdster $35 here we come !

  36. Here is the Silver watchdog link on twitter
    says "Ampex sold out of restocked 100 oz bars in 5 days"

    Tonight will be interesting !!!

  37. Note to self-
    do not believe the first two dips of the day.
    They're from HSBC in London and JPMC in New York.
    Any late day dip is due to BM trying to dip on their globex, but will quickly be bought by the Asians.
    The asians really like the $34 range today for silver and 1410 now for gold.

  38. Turdle,

    Recommend a 50/50 approach. Mmgt is sharp & planning as if they will get the approval. Looking at it another way, as an investor, I'd be quite upset if they obtained approval & then started the feasibility study thus wasting a year. Personally, and I take the conservative approach, I don't treat a good news release as increasing the odds of obtaining the permit. I'll say this is good news but won't go so far as to say it's bullish - mgmt is just doing what they need to.

  39. We need to lobby parker brothers to issue a revision to the monopoly game to include a central bank and a "get to be JP Morgan marker".

  40. Hey Turdle,

    No deep insight into CZN's enviro permit, but as you know the NWT is a very good jurisdiction for miners. More specifically, it also helps that Prarie Creek is a past producing mine, not a proposed develpment in pristine wilderness facing First Nations opposition. The CZN release states the EA process is in the advanced stages, so I expect (ok, hope :-) they got some kind of positive indication prior to blowing dough on a Feasibility Study. Let's hope.

    "Investing", it's kinda like bass fishing: they don't call it "catching" for nothing.

  41. Thanks ewc58. I know nothing of the NWT, but am learning! I've been to Canada only once, and that was Montreal and it was only for 24 hours. Liked it, though.

  42. Turdle, to use hypertext, this is from something A Golden Hamster wrote a few days ago:

    this is the syntax: (a href="url")visible text(/a) ... replace ( with "smaller than sign" and replace ) with "greater than sign"

    Save this string into a textfile on your desktop, replace the ( and ) and just seconds are required to post a hyperlink:

    (a href="url")linktext(/a)

  43. This comment has been removed by the author.


    On Saturday, 26 Feb., Harvey Organ posted an important caveat:

    I would like to add that the [silver] open interest data [from the Comex] is coming in later and later [each day]. The open interest data from the comex may be suspect.

    Interesting, huh?

    -- Paul D. Bain

  45. This comment has been removed by the author.

  46. This comment has been removed by the author.

  47. Sorry for the deleted posts, I was testing out the hyperlink action,,,

  48. Thanks CMT, but that's about as clear to me as that hampster fellow's other ramblings...
    Don't worry about it, I'll just copy and paste

  49. Chin Music,
    Thank you sir. Very nice to be here and wishing the very best for us all!

  50. excellent article from Patrick Heller on government disinformation in order to keep gold/silver prices down -Also why the CFTC is a waste of time --someone please inform Ted Butler that he is just wasting his time on trying to get the CFTC to implement position limits etc :

    Suppressing Gold and Silver Prices by Using Statistics To Lie
    Posted: 28 Feb 2011 11:35 AM PST
    Readers of this column probably already realize that there are many tactics that the US government and its trading partners and allies can use to suppress precious metals prices.
    You can make it appear that supplies are larger than they really are by mobilizing physical reserves without explaining the true source of the supply. You can sell naked short contracts on the commodity exchanges while trying to maintain the illusion that there really is physical metal to cover the contract. You can put fear into the minds of the management of mining companies so that they decide to pre-sell future production to avoid price drops.
    On the inventory side, you can do as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) did and require that central bank leased gold had to be reported as physically being in the vaults and part of the reserves of both the lessor and the lessee. Only in the past few years has the IMF given central banks the “option” to accurately report the gold reserves in their vaults that is not under contract to be returned at the end of a lease. You also have exchange traded funds state right in the fine print of their prospectuses that they may own some forms of physical that do not meet the purity or weight requirements of commodity exchanges.
    As for the demand part of the equation, you can delay reporting additions to central bank gold reserves, as China did for six years. You can also underreport gold reserves. It’s hard to blame China for purchasing gold on the sly—it kept other parties from realizing how strong demand was and held down prices while that central bank continued to buy more gold.
    In addition, there are a variety of tactics that can influence prices without affecting supply, demand, or inventories. Rules and regulations can be changed. Commodity exchanges can increase their margin requirements, even when prices are declining.
    The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has proposed regulations (now in their public comment period) that appear to crack down on the manipulation of the COMEX gold and silver markets. However, the reality of the proposed regulations shows that they will have almost the opposite effect. For instance, naked short positions acquired before these new regulations take effect will never be subject to regulation. The regulations are also skewed to limit the purchase of commodity contracts, but have virtually no limitations on the short selling of gold or silver on the COMEX.
    One major tactic is for the US government to report statistics that may be accurate as reported, but which are heavily massaged to report data that lulls the public into thinking that the economy is in better condition than it really is. Let’s consider some recent examples.
    Last week, the US Commerce Department reported that January durable good orders had increased by 2.7% over December figures. In this instance, the government elected to report the entire statistic. If you exclude orders in the transportation sector, which was skewed by Boeing’s report of a huge 4,900% increase in aircraft sales, however, durable good orders in January declined by 3.6%. As it happens, a high percentage of Boeing’s sales were to the US government for military purposes. Buried later in the report was information that durable goods orders excluding all military purchases, fell by 6.9% in January. This was the largest such decline in more than two years. Durable good orders excluding military purchase is often taken as a proxy to reflect private sector demand.

  51. part 2

    The headlines picked up the 2.7% increase to report to the public and either ignored or buried the huge 6.9% decline in non-defense orders. Thus, the general public would have the impression that the economy is stronger than it really is.
    Last week, the Commerce Department also reported that the sales of new homes in January were at a “seasonally adjusted” rate of 284,000 units. While that statistic was a 12.6% drop from the previous month and down 18% from January 2010, it hid a more worrisome fact. The actual number of new homes sold in January was 19,000. This was the lowest sales of new homes since the Census Bureau started to track this statistic.
    When the US Labor Department issued its weekly report on new unemployment claims last week, the focus of the media reports was how it was about 40% lower than the data for two years ago. However, buried in the fine print of the report was a statement that 9.2 million people are still receiving federal or state jobless benefits. Generally, the US government considers people to be unemployed only so long as they continue to receive government benefits. Once the unemployment benefits run out, whether the person has a job or not, people are no longer considered unemployed. By using a statistical trick to drop hundreds of thousands of unemployed people from the ranks of the unemployed, the US government has been able to claim that the unemployment rate is dropping. Little attention is paid to the statistic that the number of employed people as a percentage of the population has been declining.
    The government isn’t alone in lying with statistics. The National Association of Realtors recently announced that they had been overstating the number of home sales every month for the past three years or so, perhaps on the order of 15-20%. By misreporting the relative activity in the real estate market, it is just about guaranteed that many who have purchased homes over the past three years have overpaid. If the public had been aware of accurate statistics, home prices would have come down more sharply than has happened.
    In sum, when the general public looks at the headlines, they will invariably think that the US economy is in better shape that the fine details in the report reveal. This is exactly what the US government wants to occur. A complacent public will not scramble to get out of the US dollar, pushing up demand and prices for gold and silver as safe havens.
    For your own protection, take a skeptical attitude to any reported statistical headlines. Dig down to read the entire report. Further, do a long-term comparison to place the latest report into proper perspective. Don’t expect the US government or the mainstream media to do this job for you. I am confident that when you do your own homework, you will be even more convinced to own gold and silver for insurance against further calamities that may befall the US government, the US dollar, and the US economy.

  52. CZN owners, the Prarie Creek mine has quite a history, including being owned by the Hunt brothers in the early 80's. Excerpt:

    "In 1980, an independent feasibility study was completed by Kilborn Engineering (BC) Ltd. Financing negotiations were completed with Procan Exploration Company Ltd., a private company owned by Nelson Bunker Hunt and William Hunt of Texas. In 1980, Cadillac acquired the 1,200 tons per day Churchill Copper concentrator which was dismantled and transported on the winter road to Prairie Creek.

    By May 1982, the surface facilities were 90%-95% completed, and mine preparation work to produce an initial 500 tons per day had been finalized. A total of CDN$64 million had been expended on the Project. At that time the silver price collapsed and Cadillac was forced into bankruptcy, after The Project, together with all other assets of Procan, were tied up in litigation until 1990."

  53. ewc58,
    That's part of the uniquness of this particular play. I find it facinating that this mine/facilities was so close to operation when the Hunt Bros. were forced out of the market. It's kind of like CZN is picking up where they left off. .........I just hope this time the story has a better ending for us all!

  54. The CCI index is an equal weight index of 17 commods whereas its cousin the CRB index has 1/3 of its weighting in petroleum products. Ag is only 1% of this index. The CCI being equally weighted has 5.88% of both Ag, and Au.

    Think about which is more representative of the commodity complex.

  55. Marcel,

    When determining trends, traders often like to look at what an average stock, average commodity, etc. is doing. That's why CCI and the Value Line Index ($VLE on are very helpful.

    It's also why the Nasdaq is not a very useful index, given that one stock makes up >20% of the index. And why CRB is also not very useful, as it's so heavily weighted towards one commodity.

  56. GPL still going Fortinbras :0 MarketWatch has it up another 2.94%/ 7:09pm. Funny story happened yesterday while I was shopping for a vest. I ended up at Amazon via google, clicked on one that looked interesting and started reading reviews. Bam!! Second one down says Turd Ferguson!!! Not sure if it's a sign or that there is some statistical correlation between silver masters/padawans and vests with lots of pockets but I got a good laugh out of it. Cheers!

  57. @Scott... :) "Money never sleeps!" ;)

  58. Ok, This probably has little bearing on the overall market of course, but I thought Id post this little piece of intell to maybe give some insight in the physical market.I checked the amount of stock that APMEX had in monster boxes of silver eagles yesterday.


    2011 mint direct-----------------------------18


    Johnson Matthey 100 oz ---------------------614

    I checked back today,

    2011 MD---------------------------------------0

    Johnson Matthey 100 oz-----------------------534

    34 monster boxes, (17,000oz)and 80 100 0zbars sold today (8,000oz)

    a minimum of 25,000oz of physical bullion sold from one company today.

    I would say a very very conservative guess would be 4x that nationally , I have no idea globally.Thats a half a million 0z a week and 2 million oz a month, almost as much that is in Turds basement!

    It might not be a vital statistic but I think its encouraging to see the small investors playing their part, Were not in this alone.

  59. Thanks for the reminder that not every drop is the EE Turd. I just have a kneed jerk reaction that whenever I see .20 cents or more shed in a minute that I assume EE :)

    A-well-a everybody's heard about the turd
    T-t-t-turd, turd, turd, t-turd's the word
    A-well-a turd, turd, turd, the turd is the word!

    Sorry, I saw that episode of Family Guy again last night!

  60. Nice FUBM action in the last 90 minutes...

    Nothing wrong with 30-50 cent a day increases, suits me just fine!

  61. Is it just me...or does the last three Au trading days look highly correlated? Also makes the 3pm FUFT on Thursday stand out.
    That's either a captured market tell or one helluva normalcy bias for day traders.
    I Fester

  62. Just when I was thinking that Comex delivery problems were turning out to be rumors- much ado about nothing- I read these nuggets from Harvey tonight:

    To have 252 notices sent down on the first day out of 4250 and all of this inventory coming from a customer must surely scare bankers globally that something is terribly wrong in the silver comex.

    (and) I guess, the situation at the silver comex is quite dire as they must resort to customer inventory to settle on the first day. Ladies and Gentlemen: the silver comex has no silver in the dealer category to settle upon our patient longs.

    So- are the fireworks about to begin? Or are we looking at a nice, steady rise until we do this again in June?

  63. Responding to Robert's two parter.

    Great analysis - the price manipulation methods and strategies are mind blowing may give one to pause to play-

    This time frame is however is a most excellent opportunity to engage. Someone mentioned Jesse Livermore in a recent post and his partner Bert Seligman (Jim Sinclairs's father) were renown - they traded with conviction, single purpose and looked long term. Don't forget to use stop losses, however, on this ride up.


    AG EXK GPL all own pieces of the same property in Mexico. Have to see how the market reacts to the news tomorrow

  65. I was wondering if anyone can provide any opinion on Kinross. This company has one of the largest known reserves of gold in the world and has been fairly well run in the past. I look at the current stock price of ~$15 as a pretty solid buy (a 52wk low!!). The technical analysis looks pretty crappy, but I am more of a long term investor looking at the fundamental picture. What's keeping this stock down?

  66. Kinross: sounds like poor management

  67. Ok my Turdish tovarischi, this just popped into my mailbox: GATA's Bill Murphy is in the house:


  68. Hussman has a new weekly commentary up and he lays the smack down and gives a quick blurb about PM's.


  69. You know, on a day like today I find I can't crow about my investment success to any of my friends, they are too scared to invest in PMs but they hate to hear about how I'm doing, so I came here to let it out.....

    I made a CRAPLOAD of money today.....woo hoo!

    AGQ did great, GPL went through the roof, and even my USAGX miners fund had modest positive movement...woo hoo! Almost all my accounts are in the black, and it's looking like a good year for my retirement funds and my trading account.

    Thanks for listening.....


  70. USDX: 76.91...

    Trader Dan's 4 hour chart here. As he says, support seems to have failed and we'll know more when Europe opens:

  71. Oooops, make that 76.90. The incredible shrinking frn.

  72. Friends,

    I am in the position to pick up 100-150 oz over the next few days. Would you suggest pulling the trigger now or wait until Thursday after the Wednesday EE raid?

  73. Scott,

    I think you can blame Kinross lag on these comments from the CEO a few months ago:

    "In 2010, Kinross’ proven and probable gold reserves increased by 23%. Our production reached a new record with strong performance from our mines, and for the first time, annual revenue exceeded $3 billion while adjusted operating cash flow4 exceeded $1 billion. Margins averaged $683 per ounce in 2010, an increase of 29% year-over-year, compared with a 23% year-over-year increase in the average realized gold price per ounce.

    "In 2011, with a full year of output from our West African mines, we forecast production will increase to 2.5-2.6 million gold equivalent ounces, while we also expect higher costs as a result of increased energy and labour costs, and lower average grades."

    So the CEO is saying higher costs and lower grades are coming. Combine that with pretty static share price appreciation for a while now and you've got major investors moving capital into other more upwardly mobile gold investment oppurtunities.


  74. Kiwi,
    LOL.... I want to be you when I grow up. :] ...Thanks for sharing your enthusiasm and I hope there is lots more wealth and success coming your way! (and maybe mine too...)

  75. This was on ZH,

    CNBC saying silver potential iss $130

  76. "We'll have to outwit the fiend with our superior intelligence." - Yukon Cornelius

    I like it Corney. Here's my motto:

    "It hardly matters if you're the smartest guy in the room when you're probably the best informed"

    Finding and using great information is truly the key to winning the Metals and Miners game. If you're also really smart, I guess it helps even more. But I wouldn't know about that part.

  77. Turdle GG wrote (regarding hyperlink instructions):
    Thanks CMT, but that's about as clear to me as...that hampster fellow's other ramblings...I'll just copy and paste

    Turdle GG:

    I've composed clear instructions, and will post them near the beginning of Turd's next post, as I suspect it will be soon.

  78. Wow fred, great video! Although it makes me scared to see anyone on CNBC being pro silver (isn't that like THE signal to get out) I found the video very interesting.

    Did you catch the guy at the end stating the fact that the Chinese are buying the ETF to get at the metal and they all just had this weird nervous laugh. I bet he gets a talking to during that commercial break. Can't have the truth getting out.


  79. Thanks John97205, looking forward to that

  80. ewc58, I am still have no clue how you got Focus metals?:). How do you get the info?? What an amazing pick! I wish I knew that stock a month back:).

    If you could share from where you got that pick, that would be of great info.

  81. @Tyler,

    I dont think anyone wants to give you any bad advice, It a gamble either way ,But if you ask yourself if you think silver is going to hit 50+ by December or Jan then your still in a position to make some coin.

  82. (isn't that like THE signal to get out?

    Yukon,LOL, Thats what I was thinking .

    ""they all just had this weird nervous laugh.""

    Yeah, that struck me too,

  83. fred

    Thanks for the advice. That CNBC story seriously does make me think twice about buying.

  84. Some cheerleading from via ZH commenter:

    "Today is first notice day for March COMEX Silver futures which is the start of "will they or won't they", default that is.

    Many veteran metals players are not expecting default in this series. In nearly ALL past expiration cycles, Silver has been smacked over the head going into expiration and the specs fled like scared rabbits. "They" (the cabal) tried last week after the close on Thursday to get another waterfall collapse started, the collapse reversed just as quickly as it started. The powers that be were stuffed which makes you think something is very different now.

    We have heard stories of contract owners being "bribed" with 25% premiums to let their contracts go into paper settlement and forego the physical off take. I have no proof of this happening but it would not shock me enough to wake me from a shallow nap. We also have been watching the inventory levels move up and down with a long term downward bias. Are the inventories real? Who knows? I haven't bothered to check but I would like to know the actual audit process and who does it.

    In reality it really doesn't matter unless you are day trading and have margin that can force you out of the position.

    Whether the default is now, May, July or whatever does not matter, what does matter is that you KNOW it is coming. As long as you KNOW it is coming and WHY it mathematically has to come, the "when" doesn't matter as long as you are positioned correctly and cannot be forced out.

    This is where we are now, you MUST be positioned in the physical AND the PM shares to take advantage of an obvious situation that even a child can understand.

    "They" did it to themselves by over selling paper obligations with no hope of delivering even 10%.

    It finally looks like the paper shorts are receiving their own paper "Waterloo" with this expiration. The actual default may be postponed but it smells like it is arriving!

    "How is it possible that there is no money on the streets while the Fed creates $ Trillions?"

    Think about it, money "on the street" is actually scarce and the masses are being squeezed while money is actually overabundant.

    Dollars have been concentrated into a bankrupt banking system to save the day. It is quite a dichotomy, interest rates are down and the U.S. Treasury and banking system has been given a blank check issued by the Fed while at the same time Joe Sixpack has to decide whether to buy rice or pasta to feed his children.

    Another way to look at this is that Dollars are very plentiful and are thrown around by government and institutions like they have no value at all while the average person scrimps and scrapes to attain scarce and very valuable Dollars just to survive another day. History will look back on the current time frame and ask how it was possible for this grand lie to last as long as it has since it is (and has been for quite some time now) so obvious that the system is untenable, unstable and bankrupt.

    Some little boy in the crowd will point his finger and tell it like it is, The King is buckassed naked."

  85. Tyler,

    I'll tell you what to do....


    When it comes to physical don't try and time the market to save yourself what in actuality is going to be at most a small percentage. Get it now. GET IT NOW.

    The only thing you should worry about timing is with paper securities, particularly those which hold a time value such as options.

    If you're looking at physical silver as a trading asset then I'd argue there are substantially better ways to do that than with the physical. If however, you are like those of us who see it as a permanent reserve asset in your portfolio then buy it now.

    Someone posted the First Majestic store link earlier and I admit I have a AGCrush on these bars:

    Don't ever wait to pick up physical silver as long as its at this level.


  86. Tyler

    I would say go get it, but I am a cautious type. However, one, silver just keeps seeming to rise, and two, I am so much calmer about the price volatility when I actually own and possess the metal. Think how you would feel if you had been waiting these past weeks! But as always, when it comes to money you have to trust your gut not mine.

  87. c6eef5b4-3c40-11e0-9015-000bcdcb471e,

    Dude, you may as well ask for my homemade meatball recipe. Not gonna happen. We all have a few secrets :-0)

    As I said, you ain't the only one wishing- - I've been tapped and would've had to sell something else to buy FCSMF. And I already did that recently to buy some CZN and UURAF. Luckily they both had nice days too-- Ucore took off today. Take a look at that 3 mo chart... definitely worth some DD. Mostly b/c their Bokan Mountain flagship project may hold the N. America's biggest heavy REE deposit. They're also connected in DC and well positioned to benefit from upcoming moves toward a national strategic metals policy. In the baby REE space I also like Commerce Resources. Look into their Eldor property, another potential monster HREE resource. TRER's Roundtop in TX is a third potential HREE eye-popper. TRER only has 28mm shares o/s and is a bit more upscale at 3.10 p/share.

    Again, I only own UURAF and CZN, the rest are on my wish list.

    Buona fortuna amici!

  88. Thanks everyone, I think I'm gonna get 10 of these tonight.

    Although Yukon, the 50 oz. did look nice. I would like to have a smaller pieces so I can store them in different places.

  89. I rolled all but one of my March futures contracts to May and told my broker I was taking delivery. I want to see for myself if there's any truth to the rumors of 20, 30, up to 50% premiums being offered to take cash instead of delivery of the actual silver as 1000 +/- ounce silver bars. Having taken delivery before, what I got in the past was actually certificates for serial numbered bars with the net net weight, that are stored in my name and I was charged for storage at Brinks.

    May not be a valid test as I'm only taking delivery of one 5000 ounce contract. Could be only large holders get offered the cash premium option.

    Today was first notice day and I was NOT notified of delivery. My account still shows a futures contract as opposed to a debit for delivery. we see what happens....

  90. ewc58, thanks, yeah I know:). Secrets are best kept weapons:).

    Golden predator was metal augmentor pick. Ucore was Kaisher bottom fish pick. Tarsis is Raulson pick. So I could see how valuable each and every one of your picks are.

    Thanks for sharing.:).

    Some from me. Take a look at encanto potash. My number 1 (Got it from SGS).
    2. Catalyst copper
    3. Marifill mines
    4. Eagle Hill Exploration (EAG)

  91. Hey all --

    long time lurker, Turd - look forward to the new site.

    Didn't see it mentioned here yet, other folks following Clive Maund too? Here's his Feb-27 post on silver, he warning downside.

  92. No offense skidmark, but it seems like every time I read Maund he is warning of downside. Maybe I'm just running across the wrong articles...

  93. Canadian Zinc. Recently signed up for information at their website. Received today a bunch of information: recent recommendations, articles as attachments from their IR person. The 16FEB article was a recommendation (Greg McCoach Recommends CZN) which notes:

    On top of this we are in the final stages of what has been a multi-year battle to acquire a key permit to unlock the value of the
    within 6 to 8 months after receipt of final permit.
    Earl Hope, Investor Relations AT CZN
    Tel: (604) 688-2001
    Toll Free: 1-866-688-2001

  94. No offense Art, but it seems like every time I read Turd he is warning of upside. Maybe I'm just running across the wrong articles...

    Only joking of course (wonder if Turd will read this?), but on a bullish day like today it never hurts to read a bearish view, if only to balance us out a bit and keep us from getting complacent.

  95. Au, interesting - please keep us posted. I suspect you're probably right unfortunately and they only negotiate with the largest # of contract holders. Another poster on Harvey's blog wondered what if more ind'l users came to the comex - my question is what if individual's decide to come to the comex to take delivery b/c they can't get their silver anywhere else in the quantity their seeking or for any other reason? Interesting no?

    btw, you with Lind-Waldock? Another poster mentioned they are one of a few, if not only broker that let's you take delivery.

  96. Forgot to add, also received background article containing interview with Alan Taylor, CZN COO and VP Exploration.

    The Hunt Brothers’ Silver Speculation –
    Canadian Zinc Interview (TSX:CZN,
    OTCBB:CZICF) By: Marco G. September 16, 2010

  97. Turdle, I read the article. Here's what I got out of it:

    I know I said silver was going down and it went up instead, but that's only because of that fruitcake in Libya. Trust me, it's going down...unless somebody in the middle east does something whacko again, then it might go up some more...but then it's going down.

    I don't mind a bearish perspective, but something about that dude's writing just irritates me.

  98. Im sufficiently spooked by Harvey's report today to dump my sivr position tomorrow in favor of pslv despite the premium. Whats going on with the deliveries coming from the customer inventory?

    My strategy going forward will be to continue accumulating physical with profits. Long phys, pslv, short slv, gld into strength, and possibly trade in and out of sgol, sivr equity/options on weakness. But no longer going to sell strength of phys or pslv, just hold.

  99. Art, thanks for your comment. I'm no fan of that dude either, but knowing there are still bearish views out there is comforting. When there's not, we'll know the top is near.

  100. A little dittie to hum to:


  101. Just comment. What harm can it do other then a little skin off your fingers for typing. Only comment once though. Bix and Ted B have paste and copy objections. Don't go off on tangents/tirades. Just be heard!


  102. See ya

  103. @ c6eef5b4-3c40-11e0-9015-000bcdcb471e,

    Thanks for your selections, each is new to me and I love to find new gems.

    I forgot to mention Medallion Resources earlier, I own that one too. I've previously recommended Mick Fulp and his site here on Turd Town. He covers PM, REE and Uranium miners and specifically looks for stocks that will double w/in 6 - 9 months. I use his People/Projects/Share Structure criteria to evaluate the miners I look at. That approach alone has been really helpful in filtering out the many losers out there. It's a sensible framework.

    Anyway, Fulp features Medallion Resources (MLLOF) in the new Mercenary Musing he posted today. It's a new REE review. I've made money on AVL, REE, TASXF and QSURD, all thanks to Mickey's earlier REE recos. To see Mickey now pick Medallion as his next fave tells me I'm on the right track here.

    Mickey's site content is free. You can register your email to receive exclusive Musings that don't appear on the site. Fulp is a rare combo: a bigtime Geologist PhD with a great nose for stock winners. The site is a wealth of info- - check out some of the older Musings, you'll certainly learn from the man.

    Ciao for Now
    (that's Fulp speak)

  104. Here's a video by endlessmountain on youtube that shows the dramatic difference between the price of silver in the us time zones vs. the overnight time zones.


  105. This latest move looks more like a dollar weakness rather than a decisive break of 34.

    Would like very much to be wrong tho.

    Lets see how it gets thru NY hours later.

  106. Less then 1 minute into March no less!

  107. How come I have to play connect the dots on the silver futures chart tonight?

    Hi Ho Silver away.

  108. I can think of two cases that could rein silver's surging a little bit: 1) Libya situation settles down. 2) A econ-hard landing in China if they go hard-core fighting their run-away inflation.

    2) could be a real factor as China can actually act swift and rough when they feel necessary as it's easier over there in a dictatorship political environment. Plus they would not mind a little sell-off in the PM so that they could unload more of their Dollars for metals at (albeit temporarily) discount price.

  109. Rui
    Wouldn't a stronger china having success fighting inflation have a negative impact on the US as our attempts at QE have failed.

  110. USDX 76.8
    Silver 34.10
    Gold 1414

    Anyone want to discuss the Day the Dollar Died?

  111. @ Tim

    I think what you described will be the eventual outcome but I expect a volatile route for China to get there.

    As Peter Schiff points out at the end the rest of the world will collectively un-peg their currency from Dollar, and that's when the price of every import soars and we'll be squeezed big time.

    Right now China and others are not in full swing of un-pegging while we can still play the PIIGS card to divert the attention onto Euros instead. Some day we will run out these cheap tricks, and the music will stop here.

    In between I still expect some fake (albeit short) strength in Dollar or TBond tho. My gut feeling is Dollar could still hide behind PIIGS for a little while. Then again it's just a guess. I could be wrong and Dollar might dive quickly in the coming months. We prepare for it either way.

  112. @StrongSideJedi

    Much as I think the dollar is a dog long term.

    I would absolutely LOVE to see a USDX up big AND PMs up big the same day.

    That would suggest that PMs have regained true safe haven status even in a credit contraction.

  113. we almost kissed 1420, 1419.90. gonna be great day :D

  114. what time and how much will the daily silver raid be today cause i plan on going 100% cash BTFD today.

  115. Beautiful silver ($34.48), beautiful gold ($1421.10).

    And to think I first bought silver at $12!

  116. "Falcon15 said...
    BTFD! BTFD!! Blythe you SKANK!"

    What dip?

    Added to my positions at the dip to 32,70 and then more at 32,10.

  117. "SilverSurfer said...
    One thing I don't like about bloomberg, their users must all have ADHD or something. No single story appears to get more than 1 or max 2 minute exposure before switching to some other topic. WTF. Need some better quality finance news Internet streaming sources. Ideas anyone?"

    1 or 2 min attention span is still pretty good compared to what I see on the comment section of this blog.

  118. Everyone,

    If you missed this before I am posting it again, not that I did the first time but we all should absorb this. Thank you to the poster that gave us this. Short and to the point. If you never watch vid suggestions watch this one.

    SLV: sold by day, bought by night...since day one.

    Trade accordingly (if you are leveraged). If physical...BTFD. This shit is getting real.

    All the best,

  119. Good Morning and a Happy Tuesday to you all.

  120. Bought XAG at the Sydney market open, sold just now. Waiting for NY monkeys to attack. If they don't show up I'll buy back in.

  121. Caramel, I'm was at Lind-Waldock, now at Ira Epstein's group with Linn. No delivery notice on my March silver contract this morning either...

  122. This comment has been removed by the author.

  123. Hi Turdmaster Flash and all you Turdites, thanx for providing this smart blog and the many interesting comments – has become one of my daily must reads.

    I only recently divested into physical gold and silver, and like many late comers, wish I had picked up on the precious metals vibe some years back. But hey, better late than never. At least I was fortunate enough to buy in during the Jan dip. Whew ;-)

    Regarding the topics on hand:

    Cheers to Art for linking above this jaw dropping video by endlessmountain. Pretty much says it all. It’s unreal seeing proof that for many years now the silver price has been ramped down during US trading hours, whilst the European and Asian markets drag it back up.

    On the issue of Clive Maund’s bearish outlook, in my opinion the Libyan drama has comparatively little impact on the silver market. Silver has been on a massive up curve since Sep last year, going up by some 70% to Dec, long before the Egyptian and Libyan uprisings. Those Middle Eastern revolutions might underpin Silvers current growth to a point, but I don’t believe they drive it.

    From my observations the draft pulling Silver up is predominately due to demand and supply issues. The fact that the Perth mint is now out of 20oz and 100oz bars, both of which I was able to get my hands on 5 weeks ago, is a clear sign that raw silver at the moment is hard to get hold of. Selling bullion is the mint’s core business, you’d think running out of product is the last thing they want in a bull market. It’s hard to believe those guys wouldn’t just pour a couple of hundred overnight, if only they could. There simply isn’t enough supply around to satisfy the demand side of the market. Ergo, prices go up. Even if the situation in Libya would calm down tomorrow, silver will still be scarce.

    On to China. Will the country’s escalating inflation dampen their demand for precious metals? Hardly, if anything I expect the opposite. Chinese people with enough money will take the same path as many of us take to prevent our savings value being eaten up, they’ll buy gold and silver, especially now that is recommended by their leaders. What better way to rein in inflation than to remove excess cash flow in China’s economy by funnelling it into gold and silver? Win/win for everybody.

    And to finish off my first comment at Turd World, my 1.9 cents worth in regards to main stream media suggesting buying silver as a tell tale sign that it’s time to sell and get out. I don’t see it that way, even a blind chook finds a grain every so often, and until I see a noticeable change in the supply, with the reversal of the current backwardation being one possible indicator, the more the msm promotes silver, the more I expect the price will take off. By talking up silver all CNBC does is increase demand, in effect becoming our ally in the battle against then banking cartel. I start worrying the moment CNBC has ads trying to sell the stuff or coin dealers put on stock take sales and other bargain specials.


  124. Thanks Au. It'll be interesting to see how the OI/delivery situation plays out throughout March.

    Question - with the certificate & storage fees, I presume your ounces make up the "registered" silver at the Comex. Do you leave it in the vault, take possession shortly and if the former, are you concerned you might not be able to obtain it one day?

  125. The OI numbers still at 3085. Could be industrial demand and the Comex is asking them to hold off on their delivery notice not to shock the market. This would explain things.

    Everyone is looking at investor demand, but if you are a industrial consumer, you'd be buying hand over fist before this gets into the hundreds.

    This goose is most likely cooked, but no one can find a plate big enough to put it on the table

  126. Thanks for the comment Juan, and welcome aboard !

  127. Can anyone with experience in silver futures options confirm this?

    Example: March options expire end of march and can thus be exercised anytime during march for the delivery of a march futures contract,which in turn can subsequently be funded for delivery of physical by end of march, correct?

    Thanks in advance.

  128. agreed Mark. Industrial should be worried - where else can they go? And if those individual's like Au decide to take delivery, the # of contracts can add up pretty quickly no?

  129. is this where silver gains 2 dollars a day or a silver correction? I am so on the fence and can't afford to lose another penny to the market

  130. @ragedmaximus

    If you cant afford to lose, do not play.

    It is most likely unwise to approach the market with a weak hand.

  131. check out article on today interesting in precious metals tab

  132. ragedmaximus

    If you can't afford to lose a penny, put your money on physical. Ends the heartache, and you can always look at it when you feel weak.

  133. Averaging back into XAG at 34.25 and below.

  134. The Turd must be constipated today

  135. I'm interested in GPL daytrade today or slw daytrade and since this is the only game in town I'm playing so win lose or draw I think today will be volitile day for silver with up and down moves so i guess i will btfd today. at some point i know silver price will dip today and be so obvious so thats my Q

  136. @ sumo
    Selling off into the us open only aids the ee in their effort. Why not devise a plan that allows sufficient leeway on the downside where you can go long and stay long? That being said, my 2nd position opened while I slept at 34.27 and looks to be right on point. Oh happy day.

  137. Caramel asks...
    "Question - with the certificate & storage fees, I presume your ounces make up the "registered" silver at the Comex. Do you leave it in the vault, take possession shortly and if the former, are you concerned you might not be able to obtain it one day?"

    Yes, it's in the registered category. I never took physical possession as the crash in '08 forced margin calls and I had to dump the certs. I was an egotistical idiot and tried to hold 90 contracts (started pyramiding in 1999, had pulled out 10 certs and rolled forward to 90 contracts) through that crash and ended up puking out at about $11 and change, losing over $2 million.

    As an owner of registered silver, you have a negotiable certificate with the serial numbers/weights of specific bars held by an independent security company like Brinks in a private vault. But, yes, as a typical "bug", I would be concerned that the bars could be "lent" to a short, or confiscated by the government.

  138. @Ragemaximus:

    Qussl3 and xtybacq are correct in their advice. Just remember, you will go into the future with fiat currency or with the ultimate currency, pm's, or other inflation-hedging investments. Recognizing that simple truth should help you make your decision about where to invest.

    Forget trading with a "can't afford to lose" situation. In fact, forget trading. Forget timing the bottom to go long or the top to go short. Better... in your (apparent) position, forget shorting altogether. The casino will take your last dime. Better to buy a $5 lottery ticket.

    Invest in the major trend. Don't worry about missing buying the bottom 20% or selling the top 20%. Be happy with the gain area in the middle 60%. Forget the noise and daily/weekly moves.

  139. Thanks Au.

    With worldwide industrial demand for silver much higher than the # of ounces at Comex, users get their silver from other sources. Looking into these sources. I would presume industrial users have been stockpiling more silver than ever before for some time now and if so, that would further indicate they expect a shortage no?

  140. Ah well, back in at $34.28 avg. Let's see how we do today.

  141. JW, I have a crazy-large long-term silver bullion position. My XAG trading size is small in comparison, for me it's really about learning to trade and handle leverage. Compared to the EE, my action is a sparrow's turd in a landfill.

  142. caramel, if so, then yes, or they at least expect much higher prices.

  143. We're in the same boat sumo 8)

  144. @Marcus: Look at the time of the OP. Around 2:00 PM EST, the sell off.

  145. This comment has been removed by the author.

  146. "The OI numbers still at 3085. Could be industrial demand and the Comex is asking them to hold off on their delivery notice not to shock the market. This would explain things."

    -- I doubt the CME report numbers given the reputation of that market place. WB group made 4,000 OI in Dec. There is no reason that they can't make that much OI again. Also WB group claimed if they can drive silver higher than $37 by middle of March, they consider that a win( I guess they may accept cash settlement based on $37 and premium) Even 3,000 OI means 15M oz silver, comex don't have that much silver, and now there is no place to buy 15M oz in 30 days in this planet(it took 10 weeks for sprott to buy 10M oz back in Jan), the only way for jpm to get that much silver without jumping the silver price by another 15% is to redeem silver from slv. I'd think that redemption should be audited and reported, once it makes news, everyone knows what it means, slv should get a hit and sliver price will jump too. so, the March Comex game is not ended, the 2nd stage starts. Just my 2 cents.

  147. overall market a little weak today benanke to speak in 13 min oooooohhhhhhhh

  148. I've read a lot about silver and what one should buy. Would buying coins vs bars matter? I suppose for coin purposes, they have some value. But all in all what is a better buy?