At the risk of sounding like Aesop's legendary protagonist...Today is an important day!
A fierce battle is being waged in silver between $30 and $30.40. On one side we have the good guys in white hats...us, basically. On the other, we have the aligned forces of evil and darkness. "They will not control us. We will be victorious". However, for the short term much will be decided today.
Before we start, perhaps I should explain my "methods" for all the neo-Turdites. Most of the time, I think serious TA (there's an oxymoron) is useless. Its particularly worthless when evaluating the PMs as the PMs are utterly and completely controlled (for now) by JPM and HSBC (the EE). Additionally, the PMs have such overwhelmingly strong fundos that all corrections are going to be brief and limited.
What I do here is NOT TA. I simply look for patterns so that I can identify areas where the EE will step in and, conversely, where buyers will emerge. No stochastics. No RSIs. No MACDs. No MAs. No nothing. Just simple price history is all you need in a manipulated "market" with such extraordinary fundamentals.
OK, back to the business at hand. First, take a look at this 8-hour chart of March silver. I assure you that this is what Blythe is looking at, too.
IF we can get up and running today and IF we can get a close ABOVE 30.40, all will be well and next week will certainly bring a test of the early January highs.
IF momentum stalls...and it looks like it could...Blythe will seize the day and drive price down in an absence of bids. This would NOT invalidate Turd's Bottom in any way BUT we, conceivably, could see silver trade all the way back down toward $28.50 and even $28. I would be a very aggressive buyer at those levels if we were to make it there.
So far, we're hanging in there at 30.10 and we're receiving some support from a much less volatile gold pit. Keep the faith and hang there. If we drop below yesterday's lows of $29.65 and, particularly $29.50, it might be time to sit back and let the storm pass.
More later. TF