Friday, February 11, 2011

The Shepherd Boy

At the risk of sounding like Aesop's legendary protagonist...Today is an important day!

A fierce battle is being waged in silver between $30 and $30.40. On one side we have the good guys in white hats...us, basically. On the other, we have the aligned forces of evil and darkness. "They will not control us. We will be victorious". However, for the short term much will be decided today.

Before we start, perhaps I should explain my "methods" for all the neo-Turdites. Most of the time, I think serious TA (there's an oxymoron) is useless. Its particularly worthless when evaluating the PMs as the PMs are utterly and completely controlled (for now) by JPM and HSBC (the EE). Additionally, the PMs have such overwhelmingly strong fundos that all corrections are going to be brief and limited.
What I do here is NOT TA. I simply look for patterns so that I can identify areas where the EE will step in and, conversely, where buyers will emerge. No stochastics. No RSIs. No MACDs. No MAs. No nothing. Just simple price history is all you need in a manipulated "market" with such extraordinary fundamentals.

OK, back to the business at hand. First, take a look at this 8-hour chart of March silver. I assure you that this is what Blythe is looking at, too.
Now shorten it up to a 1-hour chart:
Looking at these two charts together, you begin to see why I am crying "wolf". (Again, only from a trading perspective.)
IF we can get up and running today and IF we can get a close ABOVE 30.40, all will be well and next week will certainly bring a test of the early January highs.
IF momentum stalls...and it looks like it could...Blythe will seize the day and drive price down in an absence of bids. This would NOT invalidate Turd's Bottom in any way BUT we, conceivably, could see silver trade all the way back down toward $28.50 and even $28. I would be a very aggressive buyer at those levels if we were to make it there.

So far, we're hanging in there at 30.10 and we're receiving some support from a much less volatile gold pit. Keep the faith and hang there. If we drop below yesterday's lows of $29.65 and, particularly $29.50, it might be time to sit back and let the storm pass.

More later. TF

134 comments:

  1. I think harvey commented on this yesterday, about the lease rates on silver exploding up nearly 800%... what do these lease rates refer to? is it the cost to hold silver at a bullion bank?

    http://enkigold.blogspot.com/2011/02/silver-lease-rates-rise-sharply-bond.html

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  2. New B Masters doll on sale at my blog, Part 4 out later this afternoon. FUBM.

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  3. It would be great if someone could lay out the pros and cons of PSLV. Maybe even have a post on it? Is PSLV the only legitimate silver ETF out there? I say this because I constantly travel all over the globe for my occupation, I feel that PSLV could be the only safe place to purchase silver ( as u can redeem shares for physical units) via the exchange. I guess bottom line, does PSLV qualify as 'owning physical' in any way? Full disclosure, I'm 28 with a total portfolio of $300k, I have $50k on PSLV. What do people think? And if you were my age with $300k, in general, any ideas of how I should allocate? Thank you everyone

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  4. Drew, is your goal to make more money or be prepared for a financial meltdown?

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  5. Lots of movement on the charts. Looks like war.

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  6. If you want to get filthy rich follow the BM path.

    If you want to conserve what you have, and maybe make a little more while you are at it, follow a Turd.

    It's that simple.

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  7. For some reason, I couldn't buy PSLV in my IRA at Edward Jones. Jim Willie referred to one of his subscribers with similar dilemma. Some "tax" thing with PSLV. Anyone else run into this?

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  8. PSLV. I own a smallish position.

    Pro's: you can be sure the fund owns the phsical silver it says it does. It's stored at the Royal Canandian Mint (outside the bullions banking system) and is independently inventoried on a regular basis. If you own enough of it, you can "cash out" you shares of physical metal.

    Cons: It has a high premium at the moment -- over 12%. Sprott has a demonstrated track record of doing Follow-On Offerings (offering more shares) which really hurts the profits of existing investors (stock price always takes a big hit when one is announced). He has done these offerings at least twice with his gold fund, PHYS (yes, I owned it and took a hit).

    Recently, Sprott said he has "learned his lesson about Follow-On Offerings" and claims he will not be do one for the PSLV fund. Time will tell. (Listen to KWN's latest Sprott interview to hear it from the source.)

    If you're looking to protect IRA/401k money, Sprott is a reasonable way to go. But so are the other two Canadian bullion funds, GTU and CEF (I've own/owned both).

    If it's non-IRA money you are using I would recommend you look at James Turk's GoldMoney.com. It is a off shore bullion bank with foreign storage options for your phsical -- London, Hong Kong, or Zurich (options vary depending on metal type Au, Ag, Pt, Pd). I am a GM customer. Turk has a stellar reputation for honesty and integrity.

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  9. @Drew Bill,

    far be from ANYONE, even the Turd to dispense financial advice on a blog. But sounds like for a 28y/o you have a good start.

    Here's what I would ask myself: what kind of confidence do you have in what the world will look like in 35-40 years.

    That's what I thought.

    Accordingly, can't beat a good stach of Silver Eagles in a vault. PSLV is good, but physical is the best. And I would reconsider whether I wanted ANY assets in something other than the safest form. Now since you're young, you can take some risks -- I would look at mining stocks for leverage. But only AFTER I had a nice stach of physical.

    At least that's what I did...

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  10. Yes, I have $300k non-IRA, thanks

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  11. Silver lease rates are published at kitco:
    http://www.kitco.com/lease.chart.silv.html

    I would love to hear an explanation of WTF happened back in Dec01/Jan 02, and what the current (so far, much smaller) spike portends.

    The silver for PSLV/PHS.U.TO is held down the street from me in vaults at the Royal Canadian Mint, and the bars are audited on a random inspection basis. If you are really paranoid you might want to consider which symbol you own, ie which exchange you are buying on, and under whose "rule of law" you might fall. Rule of law would appear to be evaporating. Be aware that even though PHS.U trades on the TSX, it is denominated in US dollars. Their website was misleading on this, I asked them to fix it - let me check - nope, the graph at http://www.sprottphysicalsilvertrust.com/StockInformation.aspx?indice=PHS.U.CA is still wrong. Not a huge deal when we are at par, but misleading, just a slip-up on their webmaster's part, I trust Eric a lot more than JPM/HSBC et al!

    You need a lot of PHS/PSLV to be able to convert to physical, and you have to state your intent, set the price, and delivery occurs at the end of the month. Shares are converted in lumps of minimum of about 10,000 ounces (minimum ten London Good Delivery bars). Less than that and you can't convert directly.

    All the info is at: http://www.sprottphysicalsilvertrust.com/

    Alternatives are out there, CEF (Central Fund of Canada) for instance...

    Good luck
    b2b

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  12. Would it be so wild as to recommend taking that cash, converting 25% to physical gold, buying up property in Northern Thailand and retiring? That's my escape plan and apparently it's Marc Faber's too.

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  13. Drew,for any ETFs or stocks you own, you will have to keep a very close eye on them since, in theory at least, we could have the big downturn at any moment.

    You can see by the actions of recent fleeing dictators that physical gold is the safest asset to have. That said, I personally don't have a great method to safely store gold and silver. I definitely wouldn't put it in a bank. Maybe someone else can comment on that issue.

    With 300k, I would put

    20% in gold coins
    15% in silver coins

    5% in PHYS
    5% in PSLV

    20% in food ETFs or stocks (I have JJG and FUD but there are many others)

    15% in Oil and energy investments

    I would use the remaining 20% for whatever you feel personally might be a good investment. Gadgets and tools powered by solar technology are pretty cool and would obviously come in handy (a generator, etc.)

    Also not a bad idea to have a food supply for a couple of months, just in case. Right now you can do this for cheap, so why not?

    You shouldn't have to worry about the physical PMs losing value and there is absolutely no way food is getting cheaper. Little downside and huge upside potential.

    Anyone please feel free to post modifications if I missed anything obvious.

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  14. Forget who dipped their toes in the cotton waters a few days back on the margin hike and subsequent price smash.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ice-cotton-margin-hike-backfires-sends-cotton-all-time-record-high
    That's got to make you laugh at them.

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  15. Thisisrich,
    Perhaps the cotton backfire will keep the silver margins in stasis.
    I am laughing with you!

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  16. Drew Bill- If you travel internationally (particularly to certain areas of the world) you know how instability can spring up overnight- the Army revolted against the government when I was in Equador a few years ago, and that was an interesting time to be a in-country. You may want to consider carrying ten 1/2 oz gold eagles in an old paper quarters roll- less than 10,000$ so you don't have to declare, and it might just be what you need for a bribe or an emergency ticket out.

    Beyond that, the other comments nail it- it totally depends on your vision of the most likely future, over the next 10-30 years. At this blog most of us think the Great Keynsian Experiment is ending, and when it does things may get rather interesting... To me, 'prepare accordingly' means physical, and being able to take care of my family for basic needs. Very best of luck to you sir.

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  17. For what it's worth, the silver miners I own all up nicely; sometimes thats the tell.

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  18. Anyone have thoughts on storing bullion at the Perth Mint in Australia? Peter Schiff used to (still does?) recommend them.

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  19. Gold Rises as Stocks Slip, "Actually Insurance" Says Euro-Pension Fund Ordered to Cut Position

    By: Adrian Ash, BullionVault

    -- Posted Friday, 11 February 2011

    London Gold Market Report

    DOLLAR-PRICED GOLD held onto this week's 1% gain in London trade by Friday lunchtime, holding steady against the rising US currency as bonds pushed higher but world stock markets headed for their first weekly loss in three.

    "Euro denominated gold has now convincingly broken back above the €1000 level" per ounce, says one London dealer in a note.

    The gold price in Sterling today rose above the £852 level it touched four times in the last three weeks.

    "We expect all the Chinese to be back in the game on Monday" says Swiss-based MKS Finance, echoing comments from many Hong Kong and London dealers, after the long Lunar New Year holiday extended into this week.

    "Activity in China remains muted [but] there is evidence of strong interest for silver," says Standard Bank.

    "China's recent rate hike is also fuelling these inflation worries."

    Rest of the story here:
    http://news.goldseek.com/BullionVault/1297432860.php

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  20. I believe she just made her appearance at 10:30!

    Blithe: (alternate spelling, Blythe) - 1.
    joyous, merry, or gay in disposition; glad; cheerful: Everyone loved her for her blithe spirit.
    2.
    without thought or regard; carefree; heedless: a blithe indifference to anyone's feelings.

    Master:
    –noun
    1.
    a person with the ability or power to use, control, or dispose of something: a master of six languages; to be master of one's fate.
    2.
    an owner of a slave, animal, etc.
    3.
    an employer of workers or servants.
    ...
    -verb
    26.
    directing or controlling: a master [s]witch.
    ...
    Square parentheses mine.

    Truth is stranger than fiction!

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  21. bacq2bacq
    Fascinating! Thank you.
    Aristotle (my hero) advised in 300bce that drawing logical conclusions from one's "name" is a valid argument--based on the commonsense knowledge that a person's name shapes their character.

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  22. I'd be leery of a bank vault. What was suggested to me was a $500-$600 bolt to the floor fireproof safe with a Sargento Greenleaf combo lock..Load it up and have your armory nearby.

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  23. Uhhhh...military in control of Egypt. Hmmmm...not sure that's so great.

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  24. nice drop down in silver .... 29.85

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  25. Followup FUBM in process? Back over 30 on volume...

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  26. Complete war going on in the 5 min chart. Blythe shorts, we rally back, Blythe shorts hard, we rally back!

    Lots of FUBM Pressure!

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  27. The Miners and Jr Miners are starting to rally after being largely flat/dead the last couple days. Could be a sign of a rally in silver since the miners tend to lead?

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  28. The desperation of the EE is palpable.
    They are using any headline as an excuse to hammer.
    It's vital that we keep fighting back!

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  29. I'm there fighting at the COMEX, we need more longs!

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  30. And we shall prevail for victory!!!

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  31. Someone posted this over at ZH. Let's keep the printing presses running!

    http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/02/western-banks-pushing-out-hawks.html

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  32. Turd ...agree with you on the shorter term silver and gold charts....miner charts are also very interesting.....pull up six mo SLW chart....tell me what you see. Thazzz right..

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  33. kliguy38,

    I also own some SLW June calls... Patiently witing to see it blow past the old high back in Dec... hehehe

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  34. Vedast,

    Some tales from the Pits would be very interesting.

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  35. A quick question: Are NYMEX silver futures and COMEX silver futures the same?

    Thanks.

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  36. How long before the markets discover that total military control doesn't usually end well?

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  37. Has anyone seen Turd near this joint during Super Bowl weekend in Vegas?

    http://www.luxuo.com/super-rich/gold-vending-machine-las-vegas-casino.html#

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  38. http://oiltradersblog.blogspot.com/2011/02/goldman-sachs-is-bearish-on-gold.html

    another bankster gonna get screwed :D

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  39. @mythblasters

    Generally true but maybe not in Egypt's case. The military is not only the strongest institution but also the most westernized. The officer corps has had heavy interaction with US military for the past decades and apparently gets the concept of allegiance to the constitution and the people rather than the current head of government. From what we have seen so far they have tended to side with the people in the street in this crisis. Someone needs to step up and maintain a stable and trustworthy government until the political process can elect another one. They seem to be the best suited to do that.

    The outcome of most revolutions is not clear for several years at best. The markets, however, react only to the moment...

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  40. Maybe. Bankers don't like to get screwed, they prefer to be screwer than screwee, and they have infinite margin and inside information.

    Piter beware the overall deflationary event. Some good old fashion bond defaults, then money supply contracts instantaneously, and all prices drop just like in fall '08. It doesn't even take actual default, just the market "realizing" that there will be defaults, and it gets priced in.

    Retiring and default of debt contracts money MUCH faster than the Bernanke's can print it, I assure you.

    Stay awake, bankers ain't stupid, but neither are they wise.

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  41. This is a VERY healthy consolidation in PMs here....just remember what these sideways mover really mean. This is an "energy building" accumulation for the next move up. The more sideways action the stronger the move.

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  42. Don´t know if you seen this, interesting.

    http://www.sprott.com/docs/MarketsataGlance/2011/January_2011.pdf

    We believe Asian demand for physical gold and silver is akin to a tsunami. While precious metals prices have corrected on the paper exchanges, the inflation resurgence in Asia is quietly driving new,unforeseen levels of physical demand for the metals. While the world continues to float on a sea of paper, this massive wave of physical demand silently threatens to crash into the physical gold and
    silver market, potentially wiping out tangible supply.

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  43. Remember yesterdays news about Dutch central bank ordering liquidation of pension fund physical gold? Well, now we are also not allowed anymore (Netherlands) to open an account at goldmoney.com...

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  44. @oldNavy, you have a good point but...it will all mean very little unless there are drastic steps to change what people were protesting over in the first place. How the military will change the dynamic and help the economy is very questionable.

    Also, it's my recollection(from last week) that the military stood by and didn't seem to be checking the IDs of pro-Mubarak supporters or stopping them from throwing objects at the protesters. I'm just saying...

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  45. Martijn: Banks love conflict. Can one not imagine a scenario in which they make it impossible for individuals to own PMs, they sell all the collectively-owned PMs in central banks (silver already gone, most gold gone as well, or it has multiple paper claims on it) so that so much gold is so tightly held (privately, by those who are above the rules) that it simply isn't available to be money for us.

    All too likely....

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  46. Holy shit!!! She attacks non stop today... 29.88

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  47. Could someone help me? Are these futures http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver_contract_specifications.html the same Interactive Brokers offers (http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/trading/exchanges.php?exch=nymex&showcategories=FUTGRP&ib_entity=llc)? Multiplier and symbol are the same, but trading hours don't match.

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  48. http://www.martinarmstrong.org/economic_projections.htm

    check out the feb 6, 2011 essay. If he's right, looks like egypt is just the beginning...

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  49. Just phoned the Shipping Co ...... Told them to get ready to back up the freaking truck. Giddy Up. Thank you Blythe

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  50. That silver auger is feeling mighty fine...

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  51. Thisisrich-

    I was the one who picked up some cotton stock (BAL) the day before the margin change and subsequent dump in the price. Ouch! But I'm learning to just hang on if the fundamentals haven't changed, so I sat tight, it came roaring back, and now I'm doing very well indeed, up about 10% since I bought. At least it's a commodity that Blythe hasn't targeted.... ;-)

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  52. I am in absolute awe as I watch this market. I have never seen this kind of manipulation. Are you gonna believe me or your lying eyes, boy?

    http://thecivillibertarian.blogspot.com/2011/02/two-boise-silver-dealers-go-all-in.html

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  53. Is WB riding a flying monkey or having lunch with BM?

    Havent seen any more of 'her' posts.

    Maybe they got a margin call from BM.

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  54. my buy on the dip order got filled, so hopefully it helps.

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  55. Brian, I read your blog post. What did you mean by two dealers going "all in?"

    Also what was the comment at the end about buying some paper silver and standing for delivery? Was that your comment or someone else that you copied?

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  56. Hi Ved, I think they are the same. The hours difference are between the Comex (open outcry) and Globex (electronic).

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  57. Buy the PM dips! Coffer all the physical you can! Middle East is change we can believe in!! Nothing but juggling sweaty old sticks of dynamite from Iran, Egypt, Syria, Israel, and any other nitro nuke middle east nation sitting in between!! Two weeks from now as we approach pony up the cash day for Mar exercise of silver options, we'll be gettin stark raving lunacy empty banksters bullion vaults! Turned into padded cells for the fraudsters! Reality sweeping upon them as a tsunami; drowning them instantly! With every blithers orchestrated raid, the jpig morgue crowd is only buying boarding tickets to the Titanic!! Empty bullion banksters know it and all the public soon to know this self evident truth!! It is ending! NO doubt! Sunrise white hot bright shining shimmering molten physical silver exposing naked shorts with no clothes, sweeping the paper ship of fools! Leaping in droves, from the burning inferno paper titanic, consuming every last one of them! Gettin vaporizing blazing white hot aboard the ship of bankster fraudster paper fools! Ashes! Ashes! Fools all fall down!!

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  58. @afrum Wow what a fantasy that I can believe in!

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  59. I was hoping for a nice price spike today, but monster COMEX volume and an expanding March OI would be just as satisfying.

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  60. One dealer said he wasn't even going to order any more. The other dealer said he couldn't get the sizes he usually orders and sells and that he would be out until he could find new suppliers.

    He had all of these oddball sizes, 2,4,6 oz sizes in little presentation cases with higher premiums. Maybe I will go buy those today...

    I say all in only because they can't buy any more chips (silver)

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  61. Turd this is your buddy Mr. Hyde checking in on today's PM's action. Looks like the same old BS. Keep the faith Daddy.

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  62. Looks like 29.75 is holding for now. Fingers crossed! Don't let a little suppressing fire scare you, boys and girls - onwards and upwards. Time to back up the truck and regroup for the next charge!

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  63. Oh yea. I have never traded paper commodities. (futures) I have some well connected friends who do. So I thought I'd call them today and get an indoctrination...

    I feel like I am at a gunfight armed with a knife.

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  64. I love good writers and poets.
    keep it up afrum

    We are still above yesterday's lows of 29.65 that Turd pointed out. hopefully thie 29.68 bounce will gain some momentum to the upside.

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  65. The EE looks trapped to me.

    a) Drop the price go down and ferocious buying kicks it back up.

    b) Keep trading in a range and physical metal is drying up. Eventually this will cause a panic.

    c) Let the price rise, and the short position blows up, bankrupting JP Morgan, Bank of America, and others.

    Holy chit.

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  66. wouldnt wanna be selling this guy life insurance . . .

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwykKgUBijM

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  67. Agree, Jack. That's the f@#$%^ plan. Only it never materializes. The EE just keeps pummeling it.

    My burning question at this moment is...if the primary dealers sell those front run treasuries back to the FED in POMO...why not burn the paper profits shorting silver? It's all just smoke and mirrors. In that case, we would be fighting our very own Fed and QE2. Mind numbing. I think it is a somewhat accepted fact that anytime we buy PM...we are actually shorting the dollar.

    Anybody got any thoughts on this?

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  68. Does anyone follow a junior potash company on the TSX Venture called Allana Potash? AAA-V...with thoughts they can share?

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  69. @frank N.

    I beleive JPM has created a CDO based on Andrew Maguire

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  70. Wow. FUBM almost as sharp as the 11AM play going on right now. Just a few measly cents to go to close the week above $30.

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  71. I hope Blythes kitchen sinks are silver plated tungsten.

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  72. I am wondering how the architect of the greatest economic disaster of all time, Blythe Masters, keeps her scalp when there are so many people after it.

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  73. Hey! It's the sum of the bums!! Paper suited tuxedo bankster jackasses!! The vermin rat basturds are fighting for survival!! Once exposed, as bankster fraudsters coast to roast, the bums get western justice! It will be very intense going into the herded bankster big stick bum thumping round up! From now until every last oz of silver breaks the back of the jpig morgue crowd; be still and coffer up the honest money while FRNs are still exchangeable for such!!!

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  74. Turd,

    Price action in copper looked out of sync for sometime respecting to PM's. Do you have eye on it? Any co-relation you find?

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  75. Look at the bankster bums run for cover at the close of the crimex!! Cowards dieing 1000 deaths!!

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  76. Brian, I'll wager that Blythe has her bug-out bag packed and ready to go.

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  77. The could not hold it under 30.

    Well isn't that interesting.

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  78. @brian

    Haven't we been fighting the FED all along? (I know.. the old saying is you can't do that) but really, JPM isn't in this on their own.

    Looks like support at 30...and a FUBM?

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  79. Still a crimex close above 30 as silver leads the next leg up in PM's!! Not bad!!

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  80. Now to get a feel for the open Monday for silver! Watch SLV and see how far it creeps up to the day high by regular colse of business/AH! 29.54!! The vermin banksters like to creep onto this for a weekend premium into Monday!! So far! Good premium 4 out of the last 5 weekends!! This one appears to be doing much the same with blithers cowards covering heavily before the crimex close!!

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  81. It's so blatant it's not even funny - the second London closed there she went...

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  82. Does any important market open or start at 11:00am? That's when it started going down.

    We MUST finish over $30.

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  83. The Ag action today is just unfreakingbelieveable. Wow!

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  84. Looks like we've been mirroring Feb. 09 price movement. Crucial period right here at 2pm est.

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  85. Bull flag forming in the 5 minute chart?

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  86. Hey Turd, does your view about oil stand? Is this level a good buy? thx.

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  87. I'm anxious to see what Harvey has to say tomorrow.

    I went back to his report on Saturday, November 13 just to see how things compared at the same juncture leading up to December delivery.

    Very interesting: On November 13, December OI dropped from 65,897 to 62,371.

    Yesterday, March OI dropped from 64,781 to 62,581.

    So, if there is a hedge fund posse out to bust the COMEX (or extort huge premiums), it is SO FAR not showing up in the OI numbers.

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  88. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  89. Sorry, total noob--when you're talking about purchasing calls are you talking about SLV or something else? Thanks!

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  90. Turd's calls are on futures contracts. Futures have options just like stocks.

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  91. Gold and silver bullion shoppers might like this site. Apparently, it gives you the best available current prices from dealers. There is a 3 minute introductory video on how to use the site:

    http://goldshark.com/

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  92. Co_Dan: Nice work.Casts more doubt upon "WB".

    Johan: I didn't buy any crude today because I think the daily chart looks like crap. I'm waiting for 82.

    G: I'm thinking about removing the copper chart. It was only useful in helping us find the rebound from Turd's Bottom.

    Mr. Hyde: You're the Daddy of The Mac.

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  93. @CO_Dan

    I am wondering about that, too. Were they responsible for today's reversal at 29.75, or did that price simply trigger some limit orders, not necessarily theirs?

    If the "Group" is taking the other side of the EE's short positions, would this show up in the OI numbers (still a novice at this)?

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  94. Turd,

    Can you keep the copper chart - I still find it useful to see what this metal is doing in relation to gold/silver... - its not doing any harm :)

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  95. TF...thanks for your work on this blog. At the end of the day, it's just f#$%^& money. Kimo once said, he who dies with the most toys, still dies.

    I am going to mount my 6 cylinder, fire breathing motorcycle, and screw off. Have a good weekend everyone. There will be more battles awaiting next week, the CPI week. WooHoo!!!

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  96. Thought for the weekend:

    IF there is a "Wynter Benton", their group really missed a GOLDEN FU&*#&G OPPORUNITY today.

    A close above $31 was certainly in reach. And they failed. Not that price is their objective, I understand. But for all of the reasons we spoke about here last night, it would have helped EVERYONE'S objectives.

    Back to depending on fundamentals.

    To be honest, the only reason I care is to make a quick strike using options. Keep hoping I can time the inevitable "spike".

    What's the saying, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, or something like that.

    Won't be so irresponsible as to go insolvent, but a nice upspike would have been great for the options play.

    Oh well....we shall see. still have two weeks left.

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  97. Last hour for regular business coming up! Bout time to see the weekend SLV premium wonks to begin climbing aboard an up slope into the close/AH!!

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  98. @Brian - what kind of bike you got there, the fabled CBX?

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  99. Take what you will from this new audio interview that includes David Morgan. They are answering the backlash they received from their comments last week that there is no physical shortage of silver...

    Some folks may not like what they say and I personally don't know what to believe at this point about shortages. By posting this link I am not saying I am onboard with it, but IMHO it's useful to get some contrarian viewpoints from time to time, and hopefully you guys do too. It helps in not getting too carried away

    http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour

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  100. @oldNavy: The kind of buying frenzy that WB and others are proposing should start to manifest by the end of February, either as a big bump in price (no sellers) and/or expansion of Open Interest (short sellers).

    If anyone here is interested, I'd be willing to put together a spreadsheet that tracks OI for the past three or four delivery months on a "T-minus-First Delivery Date" basis.

    Honestly, I'm not enough of an expert to know whether that would be valuable info in assessing what Blythe faces come March 1.

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  101. Thanks Turd. Forgot to congratulate you in my first post. It looks like an informative guerrilla network is building and converging on some sites like this one, ZH, Harvey, and a couple more, professional guys like Maloney, Kreiser in the media and our Youtube gut silverfuturist.

    On the other hand, keeping on talking about markets, Wouldn't an oil drop to 82 mean a proportional PM drop?

    Also, anybody in grains? Zerohedge extremely bullish on rice, correctly predicted the correction these past days, stated a continued rise from there. Care to comment?

    Thanks guys. Great fun reading you.

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  102. Pick52:Golden Shark is a good find.

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  103. The big Valk(yrie). Road warrior, 48 state visitor. Punched air box, straight pipes, trigger wheel. Twenty MPG when I lean hard, 6 carbs screaming and looking for hawgs to eat. Loves pork.

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  104. @Brian - Nice ! I love how the Valkyries sound so much like the old Porche 911s.

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  105. TF - Been a busy day at my end, but I did want to note that your "Madness" post was on the SilverandGold blog compilation this morning. Probably bring you some new readers. I think maybe that was how I found you.

    Good on ya!

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  106. Wow, very weird day.

    Tried to post a comment this morning from my work computer and everything went kaboom on me. My gmail account went kaboom too. It took me this long, from my home machine just to get up and running again. Don't we have enough to worry about with Blythe and her monkeys without our own employers sabotaging us?

    "Just keep your head down and WORK, BOY!. Don't you dare spend time trying to protect your family!"

    Anyway, given the action in Silver today, SLW seems to be hanging in pretty good. Gives me some hope...

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  107. Word verification: osterrip

    Next revolution in Austria maybe???

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  108. The Financial Sense crowd seems to have embraced the Jeffery Christian view of the precious
    metals market. I've listened to Pupalava every Saturday for years, Recently, I see him shift more and more to the dark side. I don't think I will bother to download his show anymore unless he as a very good guest. I don't even bother to download the "Peak Oil" nonsense he puts out because all markets are manipulated and all statistics are fudged lies. Energy and money are the worlds largest monopolies and that's been the case for over a 100 years. As long as the Rothschilds and Rockerfellers run the world we will never know the truth about anything that they control. I don't have any faith in the peak oil idea anymore than I have in fiat monetary systems or the global warming nonsense. The only real peak is "Peak Silver". This we all know for sure. Its only a matter of time before the rest of duped humanity discovers that fact. Gold and Silver are money. That's all you really need to understand.

    By the way, are you sure that BM doesn't stand for bowel movement? How about Bull Manure?

    The Rothschilds and other elites own Jpig Morgue which in turn owns the Fed who in turn owns the Federal Government, and you all know the rest of the hierarchy.

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  109. bobsmith5
    I gave up on financialsense a long time ago. All the broadcasts are an hour plus long. I don't have that kind of time. I think Kingworldnews.com is eating their lunch. All their stuff runs around 20 minutes, and it's better to boot.

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  110. No signal from SLV flounder on opening of PM's Monday!! Biggest signal! The runup over 30 before crimex close!! The vermin rat basturds are running blind in a mine field over the weekend! Stickin a thumb up the sphincter and using hopium, something major doesn't explode chunks before Monday! Meet Stumpy! Our hand less bankster fraudster! Go count your naked short profits in your empty silver bullion vaults! hehehehehehehehehehehe

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  111. good post bob smith...if you are going to play this game you have to know the players.

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  112. Mubarak stepped down. Handed over power to military.

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  113. bob and Eric,

    Even though I posted that FS link I tend to agree with you both about Puplava's views in many ways. I guess I should clarify that when I said I didn't know what to think about shortages I meant in the absolute immediate term. Overall and over the long haul I'm 100% convinced there are bigtime shortages

    Thanks gents

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  114. hehehehehe bobs on BM definition!! bankster fraudsters will never get our sense of humor!! I know there's little laughter in blithers pits!!

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  115. Can't agree more Eric. I used to hang out on the Gold Eagle Forum long long ago and got booted off for the kind of stuff we chat about here. The lines are being drawn between those who are informed and those who live in "LaLa Land" and denial. Jim Puplava appears to be extremely well informed, and has had some very good guests, but he simply cannot connect the dots or maintain an historic context from which to form his views. I think he is confused from reading too many books of the so called experts.

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  116. Our poet laureate afrum waxes eloquent !!

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  117. This is getting more and more entertaining to watch by the day.

    Lets take things into perspective. PM's along with other commodities have had a fantastic bull run over the past couple of years. Gold alone has appreciated close to 100% since its last major pullback, starting from Nov '08. While your fundamental argument is still more than valid, and points to an increase in PM prices, market forces for the mid-term dictate otherwise. A reversal in Equity Indexes, a bounce in the dollar and a topping of commodities should give you a more than clear sign to step aside and let general market forces take control of PM's movements. Unless you're happy to jump onboard with shorting, a fundamentally biased opinion wont help, nor will it work.

    Your fascination with a hypothetical character and their ability to control prices to this degree is beyond my scope of understanding. Market manipulation can only be achieved on a short-term scale. Once the market is ready for a pullback, no matter how much you might disagree with the timing of it, fighting against its trend is nothing but a silly and expensive option that will leave both your wallet and ego hanging dry.

    Also sorry to burst another bubble but pattern analysis is TA. You have a very bullish view on an instrument and search for breakouts / failed break-downs in price action. Welcome to the world of TA my friend. When used in a constructive enough manner it will lead to many good judgement calls and hopefully limited and quantifiable downside risk.

    All the best.

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  118. ALCON: Sorry, can't read all the comments, thank God I work for a living... My reply is simple, in sharp contrast to 'Old Navy' I might add, I too have worked with Egyptian Officers and find them very suceptible to the tempations that will soon present themselves... we have created a monster, not unlike Iraq(which we supported/subsidized) in the Regan years only to suffer the fruits of our labor as we hoped they would keep Iran a bay, that didn't happen. Hx will repeat itself, our sons and daughtters will bear this burden like their fathers and mothers do now, at the expense of politicians (bastards).Remember, we buy/hold PM for insurance; not wealth (JS)! Get out of the speculation mode and back into preservation mode. Go to your store now and spend your profits on food/meds/ammo. You have done well, don't be greedy. Prepare don't fear the future. Dow will be below the dreaded 6666 number by 4th of July (my take), we will then pray for independence... "to be born free; is luck, to live free a privilege, to die free, your responsibility". COL T

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  119. Go to your store now and spend your profits on food/meds/ammo.hunker down and wait for the apocalypse. sage advice. now i will sleep better

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  120. come on people wake up. Iam fuckin nuts. what is your excuse/

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