Friday, February 18, 2011

An Amazing Day

OK, its now 8:00 EST on Friday evening. I promised you a new post and a summary of this amazing day. I promised that I would have it up by 4:00 EST. Oops. Running your own businesses and managing a viral blog are somewhat time-consuming. Our overnight guests have also arrived so now my time is even more limited. Fortunately, we have a 3-day weekend to catch up.

First things first, here is your daily silver chart:
This is an extremely important chart.
1) After yesterday, you could have expected a soft opening. You didn't get it.
2) The CME raised margins. In December, silver dropped 10% in 2 days following a similar announcement. Today, price vaulted higher.
3) Understand this. Silver went down into the close as speculators who piled into the March contract over the past 48 hours liquidated and took profits rather than hold over the three-day weekend and meet their margin calls. This is totally, 100% natural and not significant in any way.
4) At around 2:00, Blythe may or may not have tried a raid. Its impossible to know for sure. Either way, the new support level of 32.30 held.
5) AND THIS IS BIG...On a Friday, heading into a 3-day weekend, from 2:30 through the Globex close, we rallied about $0.35. HUGE. SIGNIFICANT. RALLY. This tells me that our BoS...those that are standing for delivery in two weeks, seized the opportunity presented them by the weak-handed longs that sold into the close. The BoS BOUGHT. They are resolute. Margins don't matter. They are not afraid. They are ready for next week.

Onto gold. Look at this beautiful, weekly chart:
I hope you can understand what I've tried to draw here. Since the great, ponzi-perpetuating QE began in 2009, gold has rallied consistently. This will continue. Tonight we stand at the same point in the current recovery/rally where we stood denoted by the arrows in past rallies. History tells us that this rally will extend for another 10-12 weeks and will carry us to $1600+. Does that sound familiar? It should.
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/1600-gold-by-june-10-2011.html

I could type all night but I can't. My duties as host prevent it. How I wish each and every one of you were here to tip an adult beverage with me. We are comrades in arms and should celebrate (a little). We live in historic times and we are on the right side of history. Relax. Have fun. Enjoy your weekend. Look for another post sometime tomorrow.
Turd out.

156 comments:

  1. Good job this week. Have a great weekend, Turd!

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  2. I'm still amazed at the accuracy of your calls and the simple way you explain things.

    Thank you Turd.

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  3. Turd
    To a day you will always remember!!!!!

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  4. Looking at picking up some distraught miners. Would anyone think it was a big mistake to go after Kinross, what looks like to be a double bottom? Or would you put it into something that has the big MO?

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  5. If we see such major intermediate-term advances in the PMs as are being envisaged here, there ought to be a "slingshot" effect on the miners, eventually (where they catch up with and surpass the metals). Far out-of-the-money calls on the miners now would pay off well in such a scenario.

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  6. Turd,

    Thank you for all you do, now go clean the toilet bowl and vacuum. There are more important things in life than all of this nonsense, and it looks like you have that taken under control of.
    -
    Silver to hit 35, then 37-40 next week?
    Kinda have that feeling... anyone else thinking this? Anyone think we are going to have a pullback (or manipulation?). Just trying to get a feel for what people think.

    Does any of this even matter? Hah, remember this is the end of the great experiment known as Keynesian economics. Not the great silver bull of 2010-2012. But I guess there is no reason it can't be both!
    -
    Stay savy, get informed
    -
    Scott J

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  7. P.S. -
    Where is the best place to buy physical silver? I usually use apmex, but I wanted to recommend a better website for her (silver). Suggestions would be appreciated for the best places, I know it has been around before, but I will make note of it and be forever grateful for the good tips :)
    -
    Scott J

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  8. Cheers Turd and everyone, have a great long weekend.

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  9. Great week and great work Turd! Tip a glass or three and get some well deserved rest. Next week will be even more exciting.

    Here's some more good charting with an emphasis on fibs. Looks good to me!

    Extreme Silver Analysis - Why $50 is Next

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  10. Hey Turd - remember to frame that toilet brush. You could gold plate it first though.

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  11. Scott J, I've used Gainsesville coins a couple of times and have had good luck. Friendly staff on the phone and fast shipment. Not to promote NIA, but they have a good list of online sellers: http://inflation.us/reviews/

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  12. @ Scottj88,

    For large purchases Tulving.com has good pricing..smaller purchases someone here earlier today mentioned ProvidentMetals.com....one last one is CNI (golddealer.com)

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  13. I've used USAGold several times, usually about 3weeks before metal is received. My own feelings are if we're above 1382/32.25 Tuesday morning, we'll be off to the races.

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  14. If you also follow Harry's daily reports the raw material he bases his reports on are available here:http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/nymex-daily-reports.html Looking at Thursdays report it looks like Feb silver gained 22 contracts, and the March OI lost 2886 to land at 53125, not sure when the next one comes out, as I'm dying to see if the Margin hike and big price move today decreased the March OI much....

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  15. hey turd - been reading you every day from afar (the RSS feed) - but today of all days, I made the extra effort and opened up a web browser.

    So it really is cause for celebration, on two counts!

    Awesome, awesome stuff - thanks for everything, we love you baby

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  16. @Save_America1st: With your pick-up call and no coins when you arrive and my mailed to the wrong address this week it sounds like Gainesville must be having problems keeping up with the load. They just wasted some of your time. I could have lost the whole shipment. Scary!

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  17. @ScottJ - Who I order from all depends on how many ozs and which form (coin/bar).

    If more than 500oz. then Tulving is cheapest hands down.

    For smaller orders I will first make a list of what I want before shopping, then go to Apmex, Provident, Gainesville, Monarch and enter each into the shopping cart, figure out shipping and low bid wins. Doing that always leaves me confident I got a reasonably good deal. Sometimes I'll go with a higher price only because it's a specific to that mint like with Monarch or even Scottsdale. I sure like those stackers :-)

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  18. All of the above and also Monarch Precious Metals seem to be the more popular ones around here.

    MPM

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  19. @ Silver Vigilantes

    Thank you for your suggestions, my aunt wants to procure some more physical over the weekend, and I will be letting her know her options. I have heard of many of these companies, I hope others use them too. The thing about a physical shortage is... once it occurs, there is no going back.

    When I said that to her, along with 3-6 month waits for physical silver in the coming future, she gasped at me and says, "where can I buy more?"
    -
    Thank you for your suggestions,
    What a great community.
    -
    Scott J

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  20. Scott, I'm a bulliondirect.com guy. Aside from buying from them directly (via the catalog), one can buy from their Nucleo Exchange, which enables one to buy from anyone in that network. BD manages whole transaction, the buyer doesn't know the seller or vice versa. Between the catalog and Nucleo options, one finds a lot of buying choices. I've been dealing with BD for the past 3 years and am a very happy customer. I truly cannot recommend them highly enough.

    I can also recommend monarchpreciousmetals.com. Many don't know about MPM, so they've often got Ag when others are out. MPM only sells what they have on hand and deliver like lightning.

    I hope these 2 options help.

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  21. Prost Turd, you called it and I bought the dip and got physical. Blythe you want to get physical? You will pay. I maybe easy but I ain't cheap.

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  22. Hey Justin, how do you post a live link here in Turd Town? I see you've got it done.

    Much obliged.

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  23. scott, bulliondirect.com has excellent service. highly recommended. i second what ewc58 said.

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  24. Just wanted to say thanks for the great analysis.

    Still love the big oversized hat!

    From another Turd fan. :)

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  25. @ewc58 - thanks for mentioning BD. I've been wanting to check them out for a while. The prices of a P2P network like they have are really good. I still have a question though that maybe you'll know.

    For their bars categories, there is no mention of brand. Just one lump area for all 10oz etc. What kind of bars can one expect to receive from a generic category like that?

    And if you've ordered Eagles/Maples, what condition were the coins in?

    Thanks for any help with this. Seems like a great thing.

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  26. @Paul,

    Above 50K still standing would be epic. I'm thinking 47-48K is more likely. That's still a BIG number given the margin increase and lingering backwardation.

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  27. Turd, don't you think the smash down from 32.87 to 32.26 was the work of the EE for options expiry? The smash down stopped once Comex closed, I believe. Not profit taking but a half dead attempt by the EE to mitigate their pain. They threw everything at us, including the margin hike, and still lost.

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  28. ScottJ88: gotta put a plug in for my local coin dealer Liberty Coins. Mark and his crew are awesome and I've had nothing but great experiences with them. Of course I go in and shop but they ship anywhere. The premiums are much lower than APMEX too. Happy hunting!

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  29. Johnboatcat...

    wow, that's crazy...delivered to the wrong address and lost would suck a "turd" big time (no offense big T) lol!
    Glad you got your gear. I might be getting mine tomorrow...we'll see...GVille said they'd call me in the morning since they're open on Saturdays
    I'm not worried in any way about not getting it...I just thought it was interesting how that all happened today.

    Question: With the seeming certainty that prices will keep jumping up, wouldn't dealers (some) take a risk and stop selling for a while? Couldn't that drive up prices as well artificially? Are there laws against that? I don't know what dealers pay the government or private mints for their stock, but if they get it wholesale at whatever price and can plainly see by reading Turd Ferguson's Metals Report that the prices are going up big time, wouldn't they close up for a while or claim to be out of stock so that they can sell it higher later on down the line?
    Ethically bad? A business risk (if prices drop)? What's the "norm", or is our current market situation so way out of the norm that nobody knows?

    thanks!

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  30. I belive Col. Wynter kept his word.

    The main stream media is worried:

    Fear of 'Catastrophic' Crash Rising Despite Bull Market

    In an unprecedented move, the number of investors fearing a catastrophic stock market crash is rising even with the stock market at 2 ½ year highs.

    The unusual dislocation comes from two distinct reasons: a lack of trust in the U.S. financial markets following the so-called Flash Crash last May and the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2007.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/41655262

    People upstairs are getting nervous, There seems to be a perfect storm brewing

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  31. ewc58,
    Easier to give you a link:
    EZ HTML.
    Html is pretty easy once you get the hang of it and common ones like this are easy to remember.

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  32. Prize Fighter, every Eagle and Leaf I've ever received from BD has been BU, immaculate.

    I've always bought the CMX 10oz bars and know they identify them on the site. Same with Heraeus and others. I have seen the "no brand" listing but it wouldn't stop me from trying one. I just pick CMX out of habit.

    Nucleo is very cool. I've gotten a few awesome deals there. Overall, BD is an A+ operation.

    Just be ready to do everything via email. They are a low cost seller and one of the ways they pass along their prices is no phone sales or reps. That's just fine by me, I like it that way.

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  33. Scottj88--try CMI Gold and Silver in Phoenix.
    VERY STRONG on the privacy angle, excellent education on the website, and none of this 5% non-refundable fee stuff.

    I've dealt with them for 2 years with 3 brokers plus one experience with the owner who goes on Kingworld News with Trader Dan.
    Really good to deal with...

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  34. Thank you Justin, I'll check it out.

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  35. @ F

    Holy crap that article is fucking scary....

    Who is this chump?
    “Belief in a coming Flash Crash is Chicken Soup for the Underinvested Soul," said Josh Brown, money manager and author of The Reformed Broker blog. “They aren't so much expecting one as hoping for one - so they can rationalize buying into a market that's left them behind.”

    My god, here here for analysts like Turd.

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  36. I just looked at Bull. Direct. Very interesting. I noticed that a gold coin I looked at was like $20.00 less in the catalog than the lowest auction "ask" price. Does that make sense? Can one of you Bull veterans (couldn't resist) answer that for me?

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  37. @Scottj88... re: F's link... on the other side of the proverbial coin, the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index, at 89.20, is now at the highest on record:

    http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24BPSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&i=p10671530501&a=214268993&r=3282

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  38. Thank you for your views and comments. Thanks to you, this wannabe understand things better :-)

    I'm loaded with gold and silver miners and some warrants.

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  39. @ewc58 - thank you very much. I'm convinced!

    @johnboatcat - seeing private sellers asking higher than the dealer could be the street price version of backwardation ;-)

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  40. Johnboatcat,

    There's really no correlation between the 2.
    The catalog number is the price that BD is willing to sell it for. Whatever the low price you see offered on Nucleo (auction side) for the same item is just the lowest price any seller is willing to let it go for at that time.

    That person may be in no rush, or want a higher number for whatever reason. Of course whether they get it or not is another kettle of fish.

    Believe me when I say that most often you can get better deals on Nucleo than via the catalog.
    BD's big differentiator is that they have 2 sides for their customers to check. Most dealers just have their own catalog offerings. From a price and availability standpoint, that's a huge plus for them.

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  41. @Scott

    Didnt mean for it to be scary ,Its from CNBC But that wasnt my point. The point I was makeing is that people upstairs in DC and Wall st are getting worried about the markets.

    This may or may not have something to do with the COMEX .Just a peice of information for people to consider. I apologize if it bothered you but I didnt write it.

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  42. Very interesting story from ZH today.Been reading myslf that 2 Irish Financial institutions are having to borrow large amounts fom ECB to keep them liquid,could tie in with story below.Mega day on God and Siver,we are watching history unfold here,whatever happens now will be very interesting,Bob,

    Something interesting happened earlier today in the much underappreciated eurodollar market. As the Bloomberg chart below shows, just before noon, someone aggressively sold 100,000 contracts of the March 90 day Eurodollar future. Why is this notable? Because at a contract size of $1MM per, this is effectively a $100 billion notional bet that the eurodollar price will decline over the next month. What does this mean in simple terms is that since the eurodollar price is determined as the difference for par in 3 month Libor, someone just put a very sizable bet (probably one of the biggest single Euro$ blocks traded in recent months) that Libor is due for a jump. Now Libor, traditional economists will say, is a function of monetary policy and a reflection of the short-end of the curve (remember the now forgotten TED Spread?) which is driven almost exclusively by the Fed Funds rate. It is also driven by exogenous risks to the credit system such as what happened when Lehman blew up and Libor hit the stratosphere. In other words someone just put down up to $100 million in capital at risk ($82.5 million to be specific) that over the next month (contract expiration assuming no roll, is March 14, 2011) we will see one of two things: a bullish economic development: a rate hike (or expectations thereof) in the US, or to a lesser extent the ECB, or a very bearish one, such as a bank collapse, along the lines of what the recently disclosed surge in MLF borrowings may be predicting- recall what happened to Libor when Lehman fell... In other words your traditional barbell trade. Either way, should this single traded be imitated in the next week, one can bet that the Eurodollar trade will suddenly become far more popular.

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  43. OK, I know it's Friday night, but it's been two great days and in my house, Mr. Saphire, Mr. Scwheppes and I are having a little gathering to celebrate but I am totalling having a slight withdrawal probem here on the blog because no one is posting tonight?!?!?!! What to do!?!?!

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  44. I think I may have misunderstood your post Scott. I thought you were calling me a chump .

    But were all on the same ship here, the USS Turd looking forward to learning and being a part of it.

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  45. I evangelized to a coworker over the past few months. Today I bought her two silver ounces and only charged her for the premium.

    I know something - it's that when a human comes in contact with beautiful, naked, sexy silver coins, they instantly fall in love with them and think of them as REAL money.

    This is like feeding crack to babies. She'll be back for more in the coming weeks/months. But I'll just tell her the address of the coin shop so she can pay for it herself.

    God made gold and silver for mankind, and I am trying to spread the gospel of precious metals.

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  46. I use bullion direct and apmex. I have never had a problem with either. BD usually wins on price but shipping and handling adds up to about where apmex is. I tried golden eagle coins for some junk silver and they had great prices. The shipping took a bit longer than BD or apmex but the prices on junk were reasonable.

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  47. @ IAN,

    "Question: With the seeming certainty that prices will keep jumping up, wouldn't dealers (some) take a risk and stop selling for a while?"

    A dealer in bullion coins is like any other retailer....he needs to move inventory, restock, and move it again. That is why you might see a small coin shop selling one ounce gold eagles $60 over spot, and buying $40 under spot. They make their money on the difference between the bid and ask on the coins, or rounds. During times of high price volatility, they might just take a long lunch one afternoon and shut down. I had a local dealer somewhat ticked off when I came in a few years ago after silver got trashed looking to buy.....he said something like..."Oh yeah, now they come out after the price gets smashed." He has to assume the risk of the market as a small dealer, but he also doesn't want to be stuck with a large inventory....when he gets too much stock, in normal times, he sells it to another larger dealer in the state. The larger dealers will hedge their inventory in the futures market, just like a farmer will hedge against adverse pricing conditions when it comes time to harvest his crop. A large dealer like Tulving or Apmex cannot shut their doors during volatile times, so their inventory is hedged. To answer your question, the small dealer might not be around somedays, but it is his business and he runs it so it can survive.

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  48. I saw the moonshot today with silver, decided to pull the trigger on a little more coinage. Gainesville said they would ship my maple tube next Thursday but over the course of a few hours it shipped already! Just so happens that gainesville has been better and better every order I place. How in the world can they say next week shipping when they actually ship today? I have had nothing better than A+ rating with them over my last 6 orders. Nothing better than placing an order and a few hours later getting shipping confirmation. Oh, the NIAUS code still works.

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  49. Save_America1st

    Welcome to wild and wacky world of a hot running silver market at the coin shop level. Clearly, they got your Eagles in stock, then sold them to some other schmoe across the counter before you got there, then had to do a tap dance while they tried to lie or buy their way out of it.

    Congrats to you as you are a resolute long, standing firmly for delivery! ANd bought more to boot. See? This is not just a COMEX phenomenon now. It's reached the street.

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  50. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  51. SoccerDad

    I looked at a Kinross chart. Oh boy, that is one sad looking chart.

    Remember, this is a bull market. You want to buy things that are going to participate. Boldly. Not the stuff that can't seem to get out of it's own way. Distraught miners are distraught for a reason.

    In a big gold and silver bull market, which comes around maybe once or twice in a lifetime, if I was watching my KGC laying there like roadkill, underperforming everything including bullion itself, I would just be suicidal.

    Buy something showing some recent mojo, IMHO.

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  52. @oldNavy, Thanks for pointing out my misunderstanding on previous post, you're quite correct Saturday in good'ol USA, there is no global PM trading. Sydney and Hong Kong are the first markets to open on Sunday.

    Still waiting for that dip to BTFD. Let's see if we can get EE to do a final counter attack next Wednesday or Thursday. Expect to see major volatility next week.

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  53. @Save_America1st,

    California style IOU for your PM. LOL. Hope you get your physical.

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  54. Concerning COMEX defaulting or going away, Toronto also has a commodity exchange.

    Did anyone notice China opened up banks in New York and one of the services provided is "gold trading"?

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  55. Hold core positions and use tight stops on your spec trades.

    Vol is about to go ballistic, so be weary of the timing game.

    To the poster who mentioned Kinross -- Novagold is a far superior alternative.

    Turd, once again, I commend you on both timeliness and coherence. Your work is a wonderful guiding resource for those with less experience wishing to participate in this unique market. 1600, however, may prove conservative going into June :)

    Bottoms up!

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  56. Regarding the ongoing PM bull I have to admit I am a bit nervous. I have used Zeal in the past time time the markets and he is scarily accurate. Since Early January he has been bearish and now he is uber bearish. He even shorted SLW in the paid newsletter which is very unusual for him. He usually just stands aside in bear markets.

    This is his latest public article where he outlines his reasons for expecting a sell off and PM stocks to be pummelled into the ground.

    http://www.zealllc.com/2011/spxusdral.htm


    I know the stories about Comex troubles are driving things up now but there is always some story making the market a hot potato at the exponential blowoff.

    Just sayin' ... be careful everyone.

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  57. @ F

    Yes you misunderstood me, was shocked at the article and then the end comment was just too much. Thanks for the article, I was saying scary shit that people are reading that nonsense as truth.

    I appreciated that link, as it really outlines the delusional world we live in.
    -
    Full steam ahead, stocks are green.

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  58. Turd, regarding what comes next, can you advise whether it would look like this, or do I have it all wrong?

    The cartel have failed to defend $30 and have been overwhelmed by buying pressure. They have to retreat to higher ground and launch new attacks from there (at $35?).

    In order to sell into the market from that point, they have to be long themselves, along the ascent, so much of the impetus for the rapid ascent will be the cartel itself, as it builds up its firepower. (Or do they literally just conjure up firepower out of thin air, by selling imaginary metal?)

    Once the new 'line in the sand' is reached, then we will have a new raid, consolidation, BTFD time. rinse, repeat.

    So my key question is, does the cartel ever have to be long, or can they be short sellers without limit.

    thanks

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  59. Thanks Trud, becuase this w.e. will be a great w.e.
    there is no business day in which I don't read, before acting on gold and silver, your analysis.
    A cigar will be smoked drinking a whiskey at your honor.
    Very good analysis indeed.

    Thanks from Italy!

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  60. y'know, turd, if you're right about the BoS standing for delivery, the contract expiration will see the beginning of a total financial implosion to my mind. Silver is perhaps an even more important market than gold to the central banks, and if the COMEX is crushed, I'd give good odds on the currencies imploding in short order. Bring it on, we need the reboot.

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  61. at MaxKeiser.com... "CME’s plan backfired. Raising margin rates again showed their hand as desperate and the market swooped in to kick the shorts in the the teeth.

    MK: Dear CME, Raise rates to 200% . . . We don’t care. We have all the money we need to drive the price of Silver up into the triple digits no matter what margin rates you apply; no matter how you monkey with position limits. You are only putting JP Morgan, the Fed and the US dollar at risk with your actions. When JP Morgan/Fed/US dollar crash – - – that’s on you. You brought it on yourself and we’ll have all the wealth at that point and you’ll only have worthless paper to defend yourself against what comes next. And what comes next is not pretty. I suggest Blythe, Jamie, Lloyd, Gary Gensler at the CFTC; y’all should start making arrangements to do ‘Key Lay’ or something. The SLA is looking for you. We’ll find you."

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  62. Turd

    Just love what you do! So informative and funny and well written.

    This UK gold and silver bull is a big fan so many thanks

    Lou

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  63. I understand that some silver miners have hedged on the price of silver by going short. This might not be good for the affected miners ... does anybody know which miners have gone short, and by how much? Can that be determined in some manner?

    thanks for any info!

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  64. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  65. Disclosure:

    I am long Gold, Silver (only physical)

    I have posted this question a couple of times but no one seems to have posted a reply. I hope to get one atleast this time.

    'Why do the big banks go short precious metals which is always more risky than going on the long side creating a bubble in the process and then bursting it?

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  66. I'm looking for some good charting software. Currently I use my broker's java app and MetaTrader. Both are decent, but I'm looking for one that will allow me to have a "virtual ruler" so I can easily calculate the price increase/decrease from a low to peak/peak to low, also magnetic trend lines (be able to turn on/off) which snap to O/H/L/C, and better visualization similar to the kito 24 hour live silver bid located at http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html

    except have the capability to look accross multiple days (kitko only has 3) I'd like the last 5/10/etc, and also have this capability in higher/lower time frames as well.

    ie. look at all the last Wednesdays when the NYMEX market was open since Jan 2011 to get a better idea of the probability of a Wednesday raid. ie. 3 out of 4 Wednesdays had raids. if so, what was their min, max, and average raids.

    appreciate any thoughts.

    Thanks.

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  67. Bill Haynes at CMI gave an interview with KWN where he said that Monday-Thursday of this week there were more sellers of silver than buyers. Then he said on Friday that all changed and there were three times as many buyers as sellers. Thought that was interesting.

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  68. YI
    I just received an order of 100 eagles from Provident. We ordered the "off quality" which are usually tarnished or scratched. We received colorized ones, with kitch art decals of firemen, twin towers, american flags, gold plated, etc. The kids like them, but I suspect that they were scrambling to fill an order.

    silver is silver, the price was only $1 or so over spot so well take what we can get.

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  69. McClure: I'm sorry. I'm not avoiding you.
    That JPM and HSBC are the primary driving forces behind the manipulation and capping of PMs is well documented. You can do all your own research and you will that this is accurate.

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  70. Flaunt:

    That comment struck me as well.

    Whether anyone "believes" in Wynter Benton, that is exactly what "she" predicted.

    Perhpasmore importantly, a constant theme in the months lng posts by WB and a definitive statement from the farewell post was that the BULK of their grops buying would be at the end of February, ie NEXT week.

    I would think that argues well for a continued INCREASE in price.

    Many have thrown around the firgure $37-40. Sounds good to me.

    BTW, ANYONE who says otherwise has no OBJECTIVE data to base that assessment on, as NO OBJECTIVE data exists. Quite simply, we are in uncharted waters. Even moreso than previously, technical analysis goes OUT the window.

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  72. agsigo,

    My theory is that by shorting, they can continue the scheme indefinitely. Step 1. Short the metal down, Step 2. take profit on a buy back as speculator sell stops are activated and it drops further, Step 3. Let demand push price back up. Return to step one.

    Anyone else have a different theory?

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  73. McClure:

    Google "Ted Butler silver"

    There is a treasure trove of articles available by him which outline this in exquisite, and in retrospect, remarkably prescient detail.

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  74. McClure:
    Read Harvey Organ' letter to the CFTC. This link is right from the CFTC website, not a metals blog:

    http://www.cftc.gov/ucm/groups/public/@newsroom/documents/file/metalmarkets032510_organ.pdf

    He names JP Morgan, in public, with evidence that none of the commissioners have challenged. Organ is much more pointed about the scheme on his blog each day. If I taught economics instead of rhetoric, I would assign it as required daily reading.

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  75. agsigo

    Probably the most on-point explanation, that is both supported by facts and is highly entertaining is Turd's video. Enjoy!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FGVtJRWP6k

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  76. Gold/Silver! Real honest money does go contrary to bankster fraudster lies! Franken finance against natural laws of a sound nations economy; based in hard currency, rather than flim flam, print to infinity paper fiat dollars into worthlessness!! CONgress/SINate may raise a puny hand and vote out a constitutionally declared sound monetary system; based in the gold standard but in the end it destroys! Whatever our government touches turns to ashes!! They've lost their way and cannot govern people, because they cannot teach sound governing principle!! Our founding father's constitutional government, was based on freedom and the expansion of that for every individual!! You teach people correct principle; they learn to govern their own lives! We've lost our way from sound money principle, in our leaders teaching the people, you can borrow your way to prosperity!! An extremely ludicrous premise!! Going deeper into debt to become solvent; prosperous as a nation or individually as a person!! What's even more profound is our government leaders believe it and can't stop!! It all goes contrary to the nature of happiness and if we're free to pursue happiness, we must have sound money as a people! A truly free people are not encumbered; neither enslaved by it's monetary system, as we now are! It now comes naturally, our country wasting away near a century, through reckless monetary policy; destruction of fiat paper money! A paper money financial system now burning to ashes, being a very sandy foundation for a prevailing sound monetary future; collectively or individually!! We stand united to restore AmeriCON'd! Paper money has no value, except for governments gone wild printing, backed by a promise in good faith the money is redeemable!! Voltaire spoke well when he said: "Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value: zero." No wonder our biblical foundation and premise for constitutional government states: "When the wicked rule, the people mourn!!" Individually I have the common sense not to participate in our governments monetary road to destruction! Liar! Liar! Pants on fire! The truth sets me free!! Question is? Can we the people unite and restore constitutional government, and return to a constitutionally declared sound monetary system! We'll be writing this last chapter in the future of American history or beginning a new constitutional millennium!! Our choice still, or it comes naturally as a consequence of living a lie!! Come it will! Accumulate gold/silver real honest money! A vote for change we can believe in, so help us God!

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  77. I find it hard to believe that silver miners would be doing any serious amount of hedging. The gold miners got their heads handed to them that way and have learned their lesson. They've gotten out of their hedgebooks almost to a man. Silver miners are all pretty much the same industry people. Why would they repeat the mistake?

    Bottom line: Do your own due diligence. Scour the financial info of your mining stocks for info on hedging. They are unlikely to shout it from the rooftops. If you find more than a token amount you've got to dump the stock, no questions asked. You want a mining company whose management is just as bullish as you are. No prisoners, bitchez.

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  78. Dr. Jerome,
    I want my kids to have teachers/professors like you. You are far too rare.

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  79. Didn't Turd mention that he was supposed to make an appearance on CNBC this month? ...Did I miss that or does anyone know when we can catch him?

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  80. Hi Turd,

    Hope youre doing well. It looks like silver is on its way to 50 dollars by mid april. Just wondering if anyone out there has noticed the penant or flag formation that silver broke out of a few weeks ago. If this is the case, (im by all means not a TA expert) then silver should make equal moves in the same amount of time from its break out point. Thoughts anyone.

    Turd, great job!
    Have a great weekend everyone

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  81. Is this you Turd??

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aN6rjLcpBnI&feature=related

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  82. ILUVUPMS,

    Do you by chance have a screenshot of what you are looking at that you could upload somewhere? I'd be interested in it. I'm by no means a TA expert either and would like to see a screehshot and get opinions from others.

    Thanks.
    Jason

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  83. Eric,
    Doing some research over here on the miners and I just had to chime in and give you one more to take a look at. (I know..I know) ..but since you mentioned Argonaut I thought you might be interested in taking a look at this less expensive play which seems to share a border with Argonaut. I am really liking what I see from your Argonaut pick..BUT..it's too expensive for me right now so I may do the next best thing here and go for this one: (this excerpt is from J.Lebed's top 2011 stock picks ...note the proximity of Camino's El Rincon property to Argonaut)

    "Camino Minerals (TSX Venture: COR), currently $0.49

    COR's management team is the former management of Canplats Resources, which in 2007 discovered the Camino Rojo gold project in Mexico and in less than one year outlined a 3.44 million ounce gold and 60.7 million ounce silver measured and indicated resource base. In late 2009, Canplats was acquired by Goldcorp (GG) for $300 million. As part of GG's acquisition of Canplats, COR was formed and each Canplats shareholder received 1 share in COR. COR currently has a market cap of only $31.5 million and the company has $9.3 million in cash. COR's El Rincon property is located along the same structural corridor as Argonaut Gold (TSX: AR)'s El Castillo mine (AR currently has a market cap of $260 million). Silver Standard Resources (SSRI), a $2.23 billion silver company, has the one time right to acquire 51% of El Rincon by funding $3 million in exploration expenditures."

    Happy Researching!

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  84. Ginger
    Turd did mention a day or two ago that he had already been on CNBC earlier in the month. He purposely does not tell everybody when and where because he values his anonymity quite highly.

    When you have a tiny little blog that nobody reads, maybe it doesn't matter. But now when suddenly you've gone viral with 50,000 views per day, I can totally see why you really don't want some wackos knocking on your door.

    Long Live The Anonymous Turd!

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  85. Please! Jonathan Leped and NIA are big bump and dumb strategists. Please dont mislead the uninformed readers. I got burnt personally after witnessing a massive bump and dumb.

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  86. ging
    Need to head out now for the day, but will be taking a leisurely look at CZN and Camino later tonight.

    For now though, beware. If I've seen the phrase "located along the same structural corridor as BLAH BLAH" once, I've seen it a thousand times. Could be right next door, or it could be 100 miles away. Might be meaningless either way, or it could be great. You just have to look at the specifics.

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  87. Hawkeye...

    Got it...yeah, it's definitely their perogative to decide how to run their shops. Was just curious, cuz from my standpoint, I would just think in a bull run like this they would hold a good amount back as it goes up. No biggee either way...like SilverGoldSilver says in his robot bear vids...price is fiat, don't worry about it...watch the supply and get silver now while it's still cheap.

    Eric...

    Yeah, that definitely could be what happened. The cop who is usually in there started talking to me while the dude was away "looking" for my gear. The cop said she's been working in there for over 2 months and that it's gotten really crazy. She said she didn't know anything about this whole gold/silver/Bennie Bucks situation until lots of people started coming in more and more talking about all this shit.

    I just hope all this gear I'm buying is REAL and not mixed w/ something. Anyone heard of that? Are there easy ways to test it out? I guess I trust the Eagles are real, but the Buffs are from a private mint in California according to the dealer...what if those bastards aren't really selling .999 gear? Anything's possible these days right? I mean, if world gold supply is supposedly infested with tungsten bars, what could they be doing to silver?

    Countermeasures...

    You from Cali? I've never heard of a California IOU. See my comment above regarding the Buffaloes I've been buying from GVille which they tell me are from Cali. Ever heard of fake Buffaloes?

    Just to check, I pulled out the coins I recently bought to compare them. I flipped an Eagle and a Buff to compare how they sounded and they definitely sound distinctly different in pitch. Then I compared them in size and realized the Buffs are smaller than the Eagles...the Buff actually fits inside the outside rim of an Eagle, and looks either the same thickness or a little maybe even a little narrower than the Eagle.

    How could these both be 1oz coins if they aren't the same freakin' size!? Am I now losing my mind thinking I've been fucked over? I just bought 150 more of those damn things. lol

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  88. Has anyone else looked at the preliminary Section 62 report this morning? Because March 11 open interest only declined by 35 CONTRACTS yesterday, to 53,090.

    http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/build-a-report.html?report=dailybulletin

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  89. @Scott
    Lear Capital is the cheapest Ive found..
    Silver rounds only 90 cents over spot.
    Eagles $2.65 over spot
    Maples only $2 dollars over spot
    If you can get it cheaper.. im interested.

    I can also get you Free shipping and insurance with Lear if your interested.. let me know

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  90. c6eef5b4-3c40-11eo-9015-ooobcdcb471e,
    I am not misleading anyone! I always do my own research and DD and expect that anyone looking to buy in to any stock would do the same. We have been kicking around potentially good plays here on this board for a while now and I only wanted to throw another..what I believe COULD be a good play...out there. I personally have made good $ reading NIA, Lebed.biz, and others but I would never blindly invest in any company that they (or anyone else) puts out there. These are stock ideas according to their research and I don't see why that's a problem?
    I don't pump for them. I am not paid by them. I don't intend to buy their plays without my own DD.

    I really don't understand the hatred some have toward Lebed (and NIA for that matter). They fully disclose when they are being paid to promote a stock and when they are not being paid to promote a stock. The one I put out there to Eric above was not a stock that they were not paid to promote. It is from their top list of plays that they see doing very well in the upcoming year.

    Is NIA or Lebed infallible? Certainly not. And they say so. But neither is anyone else on this board who puts a play out there for all of us to consider. Should I consider the guy yesterday a pumper if my TRE doesn't do well?

    That is why they always say "Never invest into a stock we discuss unless you can afford to lose your entire investment. For our full disclaimer go to: www.lebed.biz/disclaimer.htm"

    I do understand your concerns. Just explaining how I view it.

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  91. "The one I put out there to Eric above was not a stock that they were not paid to promote"

    should have read...

    "The one I put out there to Eric above was not a stock that they were paid to promote"

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  92. By the way... Great Panther and CZN and US Silver and Endeavor and First Majestic and Silver Wheaton and Barrick Gold and Newmont and GG and RGLD and Rivett and EGI and.. ...well you get the picture.. ...were ALL NIA picks way back as far as early 2009. I don't think many here would consider them pump and dump schemes.

    Everyone have a Blessed Day!

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  93. Ian,
    Yeah, I think maybe you ARE losing your mind. In my experience Eagles have just a tad bigger diameter and tad thinner than most private mint rounds. The thickness that you see on the Eagles is just the rim, giving a bit of thickness illusion, and protecting the face of the coin when they are stacked. It drops off markedly onto the face of the coin. We are talking about a millimeter here or there.

    Anyway, that definitely could result in a different ping if you drop test them or something.

    Rest easy my friend. You are freaking yourself out!

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  94. My theory is that Turd Ferguson is Dan Norcini's alter ego. I could be wrong of course :)

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  95. Hi all, I don't want to sound like a schoolmarm, but noticed there are a just a tiny handful of comments in this thread that sound combative... party of the beauty of this blog is that it's not the ZH slugfest. Speaking for myself, can we please keep it 1000% civil?

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  96. Eric:
    Was it you who posted about buying from Provident using a check transfer? I tried online and the only way is mail a check.What is the way to get their account #. Thanks

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  97. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  98. afrum, pleasure as usual.

    Dr., would've liked to have you as a prof but sad as this is true, you would've probably been axed & blacklisted for teaching and promoting voodoo, better known as the truth in yesterday's circles

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  99. QCD,
    OI only declined 35 on the day they increased margin and had a huge run up, that is huge!

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  100. zzz28
    Nope wasn't me. I remember that comment though. Can't remember who. Just call Provident on the phone and ask them.

    I know, we all get so used to doing everything online. Picking up the phone seems so old school. But it still works.

    Good point also about junior miners:

    We get lazy now and just look at the website google what we can. But with a really small company, you can pick up the phone and sometimes end up talking directly to the President or Vice President of the company. There's no school like the old school, baby!

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  101. @QCD: Looks right. 53000 OI on March 2011. We'll see what happens next week. Tuesday's report will be very telling.

    @Cris: I am forced to be skeptical of anyone who makes unprovable claims, but I do have to note how closely events have played out according to what WB said. I think TA still has some value even though there's no clear resistance between 32 dollars and infinity. There are still moving averages, volume indicators, and possibly fibonaccis.

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  102. McClure,

    GATA has literally mountains of evidence that JPM is the Fed's chief agent in the markets.

    http://www.gata.org/

    Turd,

    This blog has turned into a Monster! (as in a Monster box of silver). Congrats. I am spending he day at Whale Day here in Kehei, Maui drinking beer and listening to great music. Cheers.

    Bay of Pigs

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  103. @QCD Superfan: Nice catch!! 53K+ is confirmed by Harvey.

    Time to start manning the lifeboats.

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  104. Repost from earlier thread-

    Turd, thanks for the blog. The more information that can be disseminated to the masses, the better off we all are and you are surely doing your part here so for that I am grateful. Seems like a there are a good mix of newbies and those with more experience so you are providing the vehicle with which to educate those who need to learn.

    As for the recent run, looks like it won't be stopping for a while. Could be the Wynter effect or perhaps JPM is in cover mode. Once thing is for certain, silver is seriously undervalued and owning physical is must for everyone.

    Next week should be interesting since the EE has a long weekend to plan for some shenanigans come Tuesday although whoever is doing the recent buying seems to be well funded and is singularly focused so I'm less concerned with what the EE is up to and more concerned about the buyers' intentions, i.e. at what point do they take a breather and allow the EE to effectively raid the PMs again?

    Anyway Turd, thanks again.

    SIK

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  105. bay: You are absolutely killingme!!! Mrs. Ferguson and the two little turds are headed there over spring break. I, your humble correspondent, am staying home. And scientists wonder why men have a shorter life expectancy...

    Goldfinch: "turd is TDs alter-ego". You should post that on his site. He'll think that's very funny.

    I see that there were still 53,125 open March silver contracts basis Thursday evening. My, oh my. There was certainly some closing of positions yesterday between 1:00 and 1:30 but, shit, even if it was 10,000 contracts, we'd still be 40M+ with only 5 days to go.

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  106. SIK: Please go back and read the post "wow" from Wednesday night. If a delivery squeeze is finally happening, raiding the PMs only compounds the problem for the EE.

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  107. Relative newbie here. Been reading this blog for maybe six weeks. Lucky to have found it near the beginning. Anyway, I'm linking to this post on Seeking Alpha by Marco G. Astute observer, big supporter of PMs, and the reason I got into such miners as GGCRF and USSIF. Canadian Zinc? He's been yelling about that one for months, but I neglected that one. Poor me.

    http://goombarhsedge.blogspot.com/

    You want the February 16th post. Basically he shows the SIL chart and points out a textbook example of a Fibonacci Wave 3 emerging right now. Beautiful stuff, even if you don't go along with the theory. I'm a regular reader of his blog along with Turd's, of course, and Gonzalo Lira. Stewart Thompson has been right on lately, always buying into the dips and encouraging his readers to do the same.

    For those of you who want to do some DD, check out the charts of ATNAF, RPMGF, SNDXF, PTQMF, DNN (uranium), MGH, LFDEF (Kurdistan oil play. These, to me, show consistency and power. The junior I've done the best with is Great Panther, a quadruple so far, though SLW calls have the biggest daily pops (and crashes). GRS is also showing great strength.

    Thanks, Turd, for your blog. (Still hard for me to recommend you by name, but I do to everyone I think is open to intelligent and exciting, round by round, commentary on the PMs.)

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  108. @eric and Dft, Thanks, in regards to Kinross. I've only lost a $150 on it cuz I bought at the first bottom but, I just kept on expecting it to pop because I kicked ass with Red Back Mining which they bought. I get your point though, I'll do some research on other options for next week. I'd love to know why it's not performing, maybe they paid too much for Red Back, oh well.

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  109. btw, anyone looking for OI #s can find them here:

    http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver_quotes_settlements_futures.html

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  110. Turd, I'd like to say to you what I said to Harvey Organ:

    Thanks for all your hard work. You and GATA are working on behalf of everybody so that our voices (i.e. our votes when we buy gold/silver to protest government monetary and fiscal policies) can be heard. In Egypt and the Arab world they are going to the streets. We here are going to gold/silver to protest and you (GATA and people like Max Keiser) are in the forefront of making sure that our voices are no longer drowned out. Thanks for helping to uphold democracy in a state that is careening in the opposite direction.

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  111. I'm a bit concerned here. I think a lot of people seem to "misinterpret" what gold (and maybe silver) is. Gold for me is another currency, whose value is a reflection of the value of the U.S. dollar and U.S. monetary policy. Silver is currently rubbing off of gold's status (hence being the poor man's gold) and trying to find a new equilibirum (hoping for triple digits). I love precious metals for sentimental reasons (especially coupled with some sparkling stones), but consider for a second if the driving force behind the silver market isn't BM or EE...the whole theory falls apart. Would you be more cautios? What would make you stick with gold/silver? Are those reasons still present then? What alternatives are you considering? What if tomorrow the FED raised rates against all expectations?

    Disclaimer: I might be the atypical reader of Turd's blog, being a mom with two sons and a degree in statistics, please excuse me for overly cautios. Unfortunately simple statistics shows me that most of the preconceived notions about gold (even from really smart folks) are just plain wrong.

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  112. Turd,

    If I can be of any assistance to you or your family here in Maui, please let me know. I live here, and have lots of connections and plenty local knowledge (Happy Hours, bars, beaches, etc... ;0)

    pearcelog@yahoo.com

    Bay of Pigs

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  113. Crash JP Morgan -- buy silver animation:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTalT9iI-k4

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  114. Eric...

    you were right a while back...I am sick! LOL But I'd ring that dudes neck if he was pushing bogus gear! LOL

    All is better now...just whipped up a big rum and coke...watching some NASCAR...reading more cool shit online about all this stuff...I'm back to "normal" now!

    gotta love these videos too!

    The SGS robot bears

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  115. Eva ... go to David Morgan's website and get an education in the 100s of reasons why silver is destined to keep going up. Yes, increased interest rates will offset quick gains (and might stop cold gold increases), but silver is an industrial metal in short supply. There's much more to this. Go to Morgan's website and youtube for his videos (and those of others on this subject) to allay your fears.

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  116. Gold Buffalo's VS Eagles: Here's one thing that will make them seem different - Eagles are 22Karat, Buffalo's are 24K. They both still contain 1 troy oz of gold, But the eagles will necessarily be larger due to lower gold purity (many coins are 22K because its harder. There's still a lot of 24K coins though too).

    That being said, there IS an advertizing scam for $19.95 Gold buffaloes. They contain so little gold it would take about $40,000 of them to make an OZ. Stay FAR away from those!

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  117. Daniel:
    Good information. I also own some thoes same stocks. Hope Mr.G is correct.

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  118. Turd, regarding Men's lower life expectancy I heard a good joke once.

    Why do Men die before their wife?

    Because they want to.


    No offence to the lady reader's of the blog!

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  119. 53K is basis Thursday, I forgot that. Good number, but not epic.

    You're right flaunt, it's the basis Friday number that will be reported Tuesday that's the essential number. Each one from there forward gets more critical.

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  120. I love Harvey's commentary

    "The huge rise in silver price has caught the silver bankers totally offside on the silver banking. The BIS data released in November (www.goldexsextant.com) shows that the G 10 bankers have collectively sold forwards and swaps to the tune of 4 billion oz and short naked calls for another 3 billion oz. The total, 7 billion oz represents 10 years of production. If you just do the forwards, then it is 7 years of annual silver production. Let us say the average cost of acquiring these derivatives and forwards equate to $15.00 for silver. Thus collectively the entire G10 bankers are feeling massive pain (losses) to the tune of:

    7 billion oz of silver( 32.30-12.00) = 7 billion x $17.30 = 121.1 billion dollars of losses.

    This is in a market of only 14 billion dollars. It begs the question to what economic need was this done.This is still off balance sheet.
    If you include only the forwards or swaps (the lending of actual metal to which nothing has come back yet) then the losses are:
    4 billion x 17.30 or 69 billion dollars.

    Regardless how you look at it, the bankers are in serious trouble with this huge rise in silver prices. I hope you understand the severity of the situation."

    "Those commercials that have been short silver from day one like JPMorgan et friends continue to supply the massive paper to the tune of 6831 contracts. It seems that JPMorgan underestimated demand for silver from all quarters as they continued to supply the paper. The small specs are just not in the silver game.

    In a nutshell: PANIC at banking circles this weekend."

    http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

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  121. Edward: I love the buffalos. Picked up two of them last week before the moon shot. My coin dealer said they were harder to find then he thought when I first ordered them. They are just beautiful looking things.

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  122. Eva,

    It is very good to be cautious, and to thoroughly educate yourself. Whatever course you finally take you want to be able to sleep at night knowing you have exhaustively researched.
    A few points:
    - you need to really get your arms wrapped around the concept and reality of "money"; there is no more important thing to do first.
    - Some head starts; all fiat ( paper ) money not 100% backed by gold have failed historically
    - all the current fiats ( buck;yen;euro;s. francs, etc )are only backed by their respective gov'ts or unions i.e. euro.
    - do you realize in the US the Fed prints our money, not our Treasury dept, and that the Fed, our central bank, is a private not gov't entity?
    - gold, and to a lesser degree silver, have thousands of years history as money and a store of wealth.
    - a currency based on gold cannot be debased like the dollar today
    - gold and silver have demonstrably been manipulated downward for many years; we are very hopeful we are witnessing history and the cabal may well be ending
    - while the future is unknowable, there are many sign indicating that last point is highly probable; it is also highly probable the dollar days are numbered

    Hope this helps

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  123. I don't know about the rest of you, but I have never wanted a three day weekend to end quickly before.
    Da suspense is killin me, lol

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  124. USA Gold Buffaloes aren't one of the types of coins I own, but they look nice. I've got all sizes (1, 0.5, 0.25 and 0.1 oz) of Eagles. Some 20 Francs (french and swiss), soveriegns (brit), Krugerrands, Maples.... Then I've got some Pamp Swiss bars (in assay card) of 5 Oz, 1 Oz, 5gm, 2.5gm. Finally some 1gm AMPEX bars.

    As you can see I like an assortment!

    Anyone who says they can't get into gold because its too expensive, haven't done much homework.... you can get down to 1gm (even in an assay card) for something like $50. It's be a start...

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  125. Turd-sickle !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    DUDE.........What are you doing here ?????
    Disseminating cocaine to a bunch of blow hounds.? My God man this blog you created has gone viral !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    All kidding aside man congratulations on your success you are a good man.
    Yo ! Get some more "pay by click ads" on your site, I am sure everyone will help you pay some bills "wink wink" so you dont have to clean toilets anymore.....................LOL!
    I have bookmarked your blog and will be visiting frequently.
    Kudos to you and see you at the ZH !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  126. Turd, I was wondering if you could speculate on what might happen after March 1st (assuming things continue as expected with silver reaching, say $36-40). Say, for instance, the COMEX instituted some new rule limiting the amount of silver that someone can stand for delivery, or the EE, having given up on March, hit silver hard again at the start of next month? I realise despite appearances you don't have a crystal ball, but do you think such things would be possible? Or am I just being paranoid and silver has truly escaped the witch's evil clutches for good?

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  128. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  129. I made great money playing leverage so far. Using my forex panel I get 30x leverage at least.

    However I am wondering where I would stand if the metals exchange were to default. any comments to that? I use Swissquote, unsurprisingly a broker based in Switzerland

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  130. Ginger, sorry if you felt I am blaming you. No I am not. If you have put the stock by yourself, that would have been absolutely fine. By mentioning its Leped pick, it conveys that, you are advocating them. So thats why I cautioned you not being seen as associated with these fraud people.

    http://www.thecoloredsky.com/2010/12/10/nia-national-inflation-association-fraud-ish/

    Doing a wrong thing and putting a disclaimer is no good.

    http://thefundamentalview.blogspot.com/2010/11/nia-inflationus-be-careful-readers.html

    http://www.metalaugmentor.com/eforum/?p=6227

    I personally paid 1000$ for their top 2011 picks and only to see the next day, even before I enter into the market, all those stocks were bumped up by 300% or 400%!!! Some people went and bought those highly and only to see in next day or so to lose 100% value!!!

    So it would have been great if you say this pick is good from my view but not mentioning any fraud people like NIA and leped, saying they are also picking this.

    I am not going to talk about this further because I have great respect for Turd and dont want to hijack this thread to something else.

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  131. @ Eva, the article below will tell you why Silver and other Metals are going to go up.

    http://thehardrightedge.com/50-physical-silver-by-april-2011/

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  132. Edward

    You are absolutely correct about Gold Eagles vs Gold Buffaloes, both US Mint products. I'm pretty sure Ian was talking about Silver US Eagles vs private mint Buffalos.

    Anyway, on gold you points are well taken. Plenty of small sizes available. Me, I'm a sucker for 20 Francs or Sovereigns.

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  133. Marco, Pat,dallascfp,

    thanks for replies. I do worry a lot, especially about making sure that my kids can grow up safely. I'll review everything you wrote.

    Marco, I'm familiar with a lot of the points you made. Consider this though: if the silver market blows up, what good do you expect to come from it? If the mortgage debacle is any indication, the TBTF will be saved again and everyone else will suffer the consequences. Maybe I'm just not as optimistic as you guys...I simply don't see this ending in any favourable scenario for us.(especially if it blows, before the rest of it)

    In my pessimistic conclusion, I think the current system will run its course until the exponential nature of compounding ends it. My biggest concern right now is how to safeguard the future of my children.

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  134. Oh how very mysterious McClure. Please please come back and tell us all the real story that YOU know.
    What, Colonel Jessup, we can't handle the truth?
    Off topic, but I happen to know there is no God, who killed Kennedy,and what really goes on in women's minds, but sorry, this is my last post.

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  135. Well well;Looks like McClure wanted to start some shit.So he went outside started his car and drove away.Bye Bye

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  136. Eric...

    yeah, I'm silver coins only at this point other than the 10oz gold bar I talked about a few days ago that I bought through Monex. So yeah, you're right...I'm only refering to silver Buffs and Eagles when I write on here up to this point. But I'll remember to clarify that in the future posts so as not to mislead anyone which I might be commenting on.
    Gotta love The Turd's site...can't wait 'til Tuesday!!!

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  137. SoccerDad

    Just remember, all the wonderfulness of Red Back is now overwhelmed by all the mediocreness of Kinross. Gotta move on friend.

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  138. @Ian,
    One troy ounce = 31.1035 grams
    A gold eagle weighs 33.93 grams. In addition to containing one ounce of gold, it also has, by total coin weight, 3% silver and 5.33% copper.

    So you can buy a gold eagle and invest in all three metals!

    You can see coin specs at this site:
    http://uscoinstoday.com/2010/2010-american-eagle-gold-bullion-coin/

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  139. McClure,

    I don't understand your attitude at all. You can't read a decade of material in ten minutes. The evidence is plentiful. Start with the FOMC documents. I don't who you think you're kidding here, but most of us know it goes much deeper than JPM. It's called the Federal Reserve System. So what's your point? Do you even have one?

    Bay of Pigs

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  140. Only fear cornered rats!

    If the EE is cornered, and upside down with none of their usual ploys workable, might they just fall back on Plan B to lower the silver price. If the stock market corrects than it should take commodities with it. The market is over due for a correction. If they pull out the Bernie Put and let the market take it's natural course it will probably drop. Silver would probably drop with other commodities. Every one expects the market to drop, so no one blames the EE. Their silver conundrum gets cured. Market goes back up, and everyone is happy because it finally made it's correction.

    Could this scenario play out?

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  141. Nothing earth-shattering but I do have a new post.

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  142. If precious metals are perceived as a safe haven, a stock market crash would pressure PM's to rise, not fall.

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  143. @jbc,

    Absolutely no question we need to have our antennas (antennae?) up, watching for EE dirty tricks. However, PM's, and silver in particular, have been marching to their own drummer since about October, so I don't think a stock market crash would have a meaningful impact. In fact, it could trigger a "flight to safety" in PM's.

    Friday's massive margin hike was about the last of Blythe's conventional weapons, and it made matters worse for the EE, not better.

    I made the point the other day that Bernanke/Dimon/Blythe have PLENTY of WMD's at their disposal, but what they lack is a "missile" system that can launch them far enough to avoid blowing up the House of Cards. I'm of a belief that any "dirty tricks" to suppress price will carry a price tag in Unintended Consequences that will be worse than a short-term price spike.

    I could be dead wrong, but I just don't see Blythe having any realistic option other than to let the price run up and take her lumps. Once things are overbought in the short-term and there are some over-leveraged hedgies holding tenuous long positions, she'll have something to work with when she starts attacking again.

    She's not done by any stretch, but I do think she's out of good options over the next week or so.

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  144. No, c6eef5b4-3c40-11e0-9015-000bcdcb471e ...I didn't feel blamed by you. I was only replying to your 1st post as I will do again here to your 2nd post as I feel it would be rude for me to ignore you and not respond. And this will be my last post on the matter too as I never meant to cause an issue.

    Many posters here list stocks they recommend for further DD. I was doing the same. I don't see how the source of where I learn about a stock should be an issue or that I should keep my sources a big secret. That's silly. I read all the sources mentioned on this blog and then some. In fact I would rather know the source of everyone's picks/info so that I could make a determination for myself if I deemed it worth my time. Which is exactly what you did!..See, I helped you to know right off that you wouldn't want to participate in my pick based on my source! You deemed that the Lebed source makes it not worth your time..and that's fine but you can't expect everyone to agree that your personal biases should also be their personal biases. I give everyone here enough credit for being able to determine for themselves without censoring my sources.

    One last thing, I would never pay $1K for NIA's stock picks. The 2011 list I received was free by signing up for their email newsletter. I suspect the list you are talking about is the list that they promoted back late 2010 as being a top list of some different suggestions that they were only making available for a fee as a way to offset their costs for running the NIA website. Again, everyone has a choice to pay for that list or not. I still do not know what those picks were because I chose not to pay for it. ..Because, frankly, they give out a lot of 'free' suggestions that have done very well for me. The fact that the stocks soared the morning after your paid list went out to their paid subscribers only means (to me) that most people who cared enough to buy that list put in overnight buy orders to be executed on as soon as the market was open. Why would that be illegal/unethical? Of course most who bought in wanted to get in at rock bottom share price. My own personal strategy...had I bought that list..would have been to wait a few days to get in to any of their plays as the inevitable share price drop/consolidation was bound to happen once the initial pop was over.

    I absolutely respect your opinion. I am not out to cause any trouble for you, the readers, Turd, or poor Mr. Eric who I put in the middle of all this.(LOL). ...Let's just agree to disagree and just know that I never meant even one small ounce of harm to anyone here. I love this blog!!...and hope to stay around. Now that I know that NIA and Lebed are 'sensitive' names here I will be more sensitive with disclosing my sources.

    Blessings to you and much investing success!
    Ginger

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  145. Dec 2008 LBMA backwardation:
    + Initial partial backwardation for 13 days.
    + Then no backwardation for 16 days. (rest?)
    + Then primary backwardation for 46 days.
    + The primary backwardation included full backwardation of 11 days with a max depth of -0.182 in the middle of the 11 days. Silver was up 5.6% at that point.
    + Price rose a total of 27% during the primary backwardation, including 14 days after the 12 month SIFO exited backwardation.

    January 2011 LBMA backwardation:
    + Initial partial backwardation for 8 days.
    + Then no backwardation for 6 days. (rest?)
    + Then primary(?) backwardation for 22 days so far.
    + The primary backwardation includes full backwardation of 6 days with a max depth of -0.386 so far. IF 2011 is a fractal of 2008, one could construe the current backwardation to be a higher frequency and amplitude. So far, there is 60% more price appreciation to date than 2008.
    + Price has risen 9% so far during the this (speculative) "primary backwardation". A 27% rise implies $37/oz. 27% + 60% more = 43% = $42/oz.

    Note that 2008's 12 month SIFO line was above the all other months most of the time. Yet 2011's 12 month SIFO line has been AT OR BELOW ALL OTHER MONTHS FOR THE PAST 6 DAYS.

    Charts here: (Sorry for the self promotion!)
    http://wp.me/p1ePZy-Au

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  146. Eva --- yes, do the research (i.e. read the links /look into the info that we have sent you). Many are saying there will be high inflation or hyperinflation (or even a total economic collapse--see inflationus.com videos on youtube) and they are saying that commodities (anything that is tangible and real, which fiat money is not) is the place to hedge your bets. You could consider, as some have said, putting only 10-20% of your wealth into silver or gold. Again, if you familiarize yourself with the plus points regarding silver, you'll see that this is a great bet to put some money. Read as much as you can (the pros and cons) about owning PMs and you will come to your own conclusions. Personally, I think that--regardless of what scenario we are talking about--silver is the best.

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  147. I want to apologize in advance as I know a lot of people were waiting on me to finish compiling and post all the Wynter_Benton or Lady Winter posts. Almost done and I have about 90% of them posted. It's my daughters birthday tomorrow so it will be late before I get the rest posted and the presentation cleaned up.
    http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/

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  148. And the scammers begin to emerge. I opened up the coupon section today and saw an ad for a "Lincoln Silver Dollar" for $19.99 plus $1.99 processing fee.

    The catch? The "silver dollar" contains only 71mg of .999 pure silver. That's milligrams, not grams. Let's see... 31g in an eagle and you would need 436 of these "silver dollars" to equal the silver content of 1 silver eagle.

    436 x $21.98 = $9583.28

    No wonder the shipping and handling is "free."

    www.wdrake.com They should be investigated for fraud.

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  149. Looking at the chart right now (4:00pm pacific coast time) you can see the metals jumped up above $34 right at the start of trading on the GLOBEX, then there was an immediate attempt to sell them off, however it appears to be failing, as after a slight dip they are heading back up again. It's a hell of a battle and one that the EE seems to be losing. It reminds me of those few days before New Year when the EE traders were on vacation, as soon as they left the scene, silver popped up.

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  150. @ cast22

    I really appreciate what you are doing on your site, thanks.

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