Thursday, February 10, 2011

An Important Day

To the surprise of no one, the metals traded off last night as the EE hopes to paint a H&S top onto the silver chart. Do you remember this from yesterday afternoon?

"I'd say a certain "moment-of-truth" has arrived. We either smash through 30.50 tomorrow or Friday (with or without "Benton" help) or Blythe is going to fiercely beat us back.
As a cautionary measure, I sold a few of my March silver calls a few minutes ago. I still think we've got the EE on the run and the fundos haven't changed...but...I'd feel like a real dork if, after noticing this, I failed to act and I let Blythe wipe me out with a beatdown toward 29 or 29.50.
So far, all is well as we hang in there at 30.10 and 1362 but be wary of an early am, pre-Comex smackdown and the selling it could generate."

March silver reached a low of 29.67 but it has since rebounded to 29.80. As I type, it's 8:32 EST so, by the time I finish this note, Blythe may have conducted her early morning raid. We'll see.

For now, here's what you need to be watching today. I'll start with gold because, frankly, its less important right now. Here's a chart that takes us back about a month:
I would be very surprised if 1350 were to significantly fail. In fact, I'll be looking to add to positions if/when price reaches that level.

The action is more profound in silver. Here's a chart with a similar timeframe:
$29.50 is a very important level for our nascent recovery. Not only is that level an old support level from a couple of months ago, its also the area where the trendline off of Turd's Bottom now lies. This may be a test of the "Benton Theory" for if I were running the show, I'd let Blythe attack and jam it down near and maybe slightly through 29.50 and then I'd turn the tables on her and jam my big silver auger right up her batooty. I'd start buying like crazy there and attempt to run price back up and through yesterday's highs by the close tomorrow.
We'll see but, for my own account, I'm looking to take the funds I received from selling some March silver calls yesterday and begin rolling into May once we get close to $29.50. Of course, I will keep you posted on any action I take.

Its going to be a very interesting day. Don't stray too far from your computer screen. TF

ps Its now 8:45 and Blythe is definitely attacking. Lets see how this plays out...

72 comments:

  1. Jim Willie: Mythology and Official Nonsense

    http://www.kitco.com/ind/willie/feb092011.html

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  2. Meh, USD up close to a percent, gold down close to a percent ( still slightly up vs. Euro and Swiss franc ), silver down slightly a percent.
    Yawn

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  3. Of course I doubled my AGQ holding yesterday at 30.20 when I thought I was Buying The F-ing Dip. Typical. Normally this would cause me some degree of stress but today, frankly I have no worries- perhaps I've reached some kind of Zen equilibrium. The days of EE completely turning back rallies is over. All they can do now is put out speedbumps to slow things down, but they are fighting every fundamental known to man and in the end reality will win out.

    Persistent demand + tightening supply + QE2infinity = rising PM's. Go ahead Blythe- do your best to hold back the tide. I ain't skeered.

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  4. Yes, that was a very good short-term call.
    I'd be interested in getting into a May Silver position myself, but I'm also balancing that against the shortage in silver internationally.

    I'd rather buy more physical silver than more paper contracts. It's just reality that physical in hand is worth more than the paper value in May.

    So, building cash to take another 100-200 oz off the market seems to make sense.

    The only time this will not make sense is when the silver production halts.

    The CISCO number last night could portend such a situation. CISCO's growth came from asian networking. But, the asian autocrats may be disturbed that excess network capacity translates into political instability.

    Conversely, increasing demand for industrial application of silver in photovoltaics and batteries (EV cars too) may more than offset any decrease in silver use in telecommunications.

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  5. She can attack all she wants. The lower the fiat spot price, the more people buy in the physical markets. She is delaying the inevitable.

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  6. There is no commercial equivalent in price for silver as a conductor at these absurdly low prices......it will explode eventually.

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  7. Turd, as my teenage son would say your micro calls of late are SICK. Thank you for sharing your vision to us.

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  8. OK, very nice call tying today's price action with wynter_benton's legitimacy.

    I had been reading "her" posts with interest, as it seemed eminently possible she was some small player with inside information. But Feb 8 changed that: she dialed up her tone several notches, to the point of taking total credit not only for the surge above .30, but for leaking a Chinese rate hike to Blythe to throw her off ("We've trapped Blyte … Now watch the destruction of Blythe and the Morgue itself" etc.). Well, Blythe could have been making money off those shorts on a few occasions last night. Then, before the EE attacked yesterday, "she" also started getting all cloak and dagger ("Will you join us") and taunting skeptics (strange behavior for someone playing with tens of millions) as if we were witnessing some kind of paradigm shift, and not just yet another failed move.

    So whatever happens today, at least we'll have our answer -- not necessarily whether the person behind wynter_benton is a complete madcap phony (unlikely), but whether we'd be justified in disregarding her posts (if there are any) in the future.

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  9. Looking at gold v Silver charts I think I am becoming a believer. (Que background "I'm a believer" by the Monkees.)
    Although we have seen Silver lead for months now this move is pronounced.
    I just hope it's not general public buying into Silver otherwise this is one hello of a trap. Either way I am holding my long positions in silver stocks and not budging.

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  10. Louis, what do you hold if you dont me asking?? I am holding GPR, PKL, AGQ (Arian). Any thoughts??

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  11. Jedi-
    Yes indeed, real physical in the hand has a "feel good" factor that nothing else can match.

    I remember back in the fall of 2008, when it seemed like everything I owned was falling 10% a week, I took out a short stack of old double eagles and just held them in my hand for a while. Honestly, it gave me strength.

    Hoping it doesn't come to that again, but that's part of what it's there for.

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  12. Added the remaining SLW shares I had taken off the table....thank you ponzi

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  13. Christine,
    All sorts of stuff from HL, GWY, APE, SXL etc etc.
    A couple of dogs as well but all boats will rise.
    Of course physical Silver and Gold are my core.
    PKL I don't know about but GPR etc will do great IMHO. BUT I am just some dude on the intertubes with conviction in the fundamentals of Gold and Silver. I am still skeptical of this Lady Winter character. Good story and I hope it's not just lemmings piling in based on this story.

    If I were Lady Winter, and I was for real, I would make a call on the plan for Friday and give it to someone like the Turd. The Turd could then verify the call after the fact. Once the call is verified for a given day then I would be absolutely convinced. Lady Winter could send that call under another name so that the Turd (or another turd party) could verify what was said before the action but would not leak the plan before hand. So if you are out there Lady Winter does this not sound like a reasonable plan?

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  14. Frank N.,

    Agreed, with one very slight modification. In my mind, she has until the COMEX close tomorrow to push silver spot above $30.50 and toward $31.00 or I'm downgrading from leaning-believer to leaning-skeptic.

    Perhaps this group is legit in its intentions but not particularly well capitalized.

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  15. StrongSideJedi,

    Only physical shortage can kill EE, nothing else.

    BUY PHYSICAL

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  16. Question: What is the premium for silver eagles in the States? In Holland at my favorite coin shop silver eagles now trade at a 28% premium (after they where sold out in december)!
    Also the dutch black market ran out of 1kg. silver bars(never happened before). I can still by kg bars at the coin shop but I rather not pay 20% VAT.

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  17. I hope it goes up now, 10am-13am is historically a very bullish period.

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  18. Let me clarify what I just said.
    Lady Winter could send or post the Friday plan as say "lady turd" then after the plan executes point to her post as "lady turd" and say; "There ya go, I posted the plan for Friday under the name Lady Turd and it has come to pass"

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  19. So far nothing but a move in sync with the dollar upmove, nothing else.

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  20. Bart,
    Have a look at www.apmex.com to get a feel at what the premium for Silver Eagles is.

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  21. @Bart - my local bullion dealer had ASE's at spot +$2.60 premium + commission (1-3%) yesterday. Other coins may be less (Austrian Philharmonics at +$2.00). If you look at large online bullion exchanges like apmex.com, you should get a pretty good feel for the current rates. Other commenters were saying Gainsville Coins had a premium of $2.75.

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  22. Bart try Germany.
    http://www.bullion-investor.com/silver
    There is a price compare between many dealers. Coins, bars. VAT is 7% for coins. Bars I don't know
    I tried to get it from Switzerland, but Fedex charged me and collected the VAT (20%). Thank God it was only a small order so damage wasn't to big.

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  23. The BBC have announced that Mubarak is stepping down

    Good excuse for an EE attack!

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  24. Bart,

    VAT in Luxembourg is only 6%. There are no coin shops that I know of,but you could order online and send to me (if you trusted me).

    I normally post as daraconn2 but this strange name is appearing of late

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  25. Bart
    ASE for € 25,70(including VAT) at my German dealer.

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  26. Silver is flat in Euro's; gold is up in Euro's, S Francs, Rupees, and yen, and Aussies. We should not be purely dollar centric, take the broader view. All in all, a choppy non-directional day

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  27. I am working on a fictional screen play, "I Led Turd Lives". It is about a man that has three persona's. Himself, Turd Ferguson and Lady Winter. Here is an excerpt:

    Once upon a silvery time....

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  28. @Bart

    I've recently bought from suissegold.ch. It's 6% tax and you can store in a swiss bank vault free the first year. Their guaranteed buyback for coins is 2% over spot.
    It would be most profitable to just drive to Switzerland and try to sneak m in the country. It's sick that even within the EU every country has it's own policy regarding silver taxes.

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  29. Thanks Louis.

    Also does anyone have Turds link to his favourite stocks.

    Thanks in advance.

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  30. I think people are really missing the point here on Wynter.

    The scheme is NOT to necessarily raise price. IN fact, right now, that might actually be a good defense mechanism to be employed by JPM AGAINST the plot.

    This is simply a group of traders who want to buy enough contracts such that standing for delivery with them will either a. bust COMEX or b. allow them to reap a fat premium

    The reason for the post on a public forum is to enlist as many of us as possible to purchase physical, thereby taking it off the market nad making it HARDER for JPM to have enough physical to cover the contracts standing for delivery.

    Wynter has been quite clear that Feb 8 was just a start; in fact it is almost a direct quote that she said the bulk of buying will be toward the end.

    So challenging her/her group make thie price go higher is in my mind missing the point.

    Our interests align with hers -- we want the silver manipulation to break and silver to be freely traded.

    Some of us feel strongly about this from the point of view of making $$$, some from a sense of what is right and moral. Reagrdless, our interests align.

    And even if Wynter WERE some damn smart 14 y/o in his mother's basement, which I highly doubt given the last few days, and given the LONG (months long) history of posts, there are a million OTHER reasons to pursue the exact same course -- buy physical, dont leverage, if forced to speculate call options.

    I personally think we should brainstorm about how best to profit from this scheme -- I personally favor call options.

    And it certainly makes for GREAT theater.

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  31. @Louis Cypher,

    I think Wynter ALREADY did that with the call about Feb 8.

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  32. http://silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com/2011/02/last-raid-by-ee.html

    Is this really Blythe naked??

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  33. miners are giving you the tell today....very strong relative performance at this point. They are being ACCUMULATED on low volume sell off.....buy with the big boyz.

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  34. Cris, excellent post. The whole WB thing is just kabuki; my buying PM's and miners has zero to do with. It has to do with fundies:
    - debts that can never be re-paid; fiats are failing , there is zero chance they can rise again
    - what else besides PM's afford protection? Farmland; commodities; hard assets? Sure, maybe, but PM's afford the easiest method, and have centuries of faith.

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  35. In Germany I have had good results with AnlageGold24.de:

    http://www.anlagegold24.de/

    Their price for the 1-oz silver Philharmoniker is 25.25€, including the 7% VAT that you have to pay in Germany on silver. There is no VAT on gold.

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  36. Question for the Euro crowd:
    I am going to be heading over to Ireland in a week or three and always carry a few gold coins everywhere. When you guys buy gold or silver black market is there a premium above spot as you are getting a discount from the VAT price?
    Just wondering if there is a profit by carrying gold from the USA to Europe.

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  37. I'm in Germany and I buy my coins from my bank directly. You can see their prices here - http://www.haspa.de/Haspa/Privatkunden/AngeboteFuerPrivatkunden/BeratungUndService/SammelnUndSchenken/GoldZumSammelnUndVerschenken/Edelmetalle/Edelmetalle.html

    They are a little more expensive than http://www.anlagegold24.de/ , but since I live in Hamburg, I can the coins up directly so no delivery cost. Btw, I normally buy 1kilo Australian coins.

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  38. @Pat,

    Thanks. I guess I am not sure it is just kabuki; I sure hope not actually, I hope they crush JPM!!

    But to me, take it for what its worth -- some high net worth entities getting into silver. And telegraphing their moves.

    I sure do hope it raises the price, so my call options look even better! And I kinda think it will, by the end of the month, as the plan comes to fruition.

    But I want to remain clear eyed enough to recognize that raising the price is only an incidental effect of their plan, not their main thrust.

    (hehe, he said thrust)

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  39. Louis - I really don't know, I've never bought PMs on the black market. I would probably be worried about either getting fake crap or stolen goods.

    And I would also be worried about what Customs would do to me if I brought a sizable amount of PMs back to the States with me. Don't know what the laws say about bringing PMs into the U.S., but I can easily imagine that if it was a large amount, U.S. Customs would at minimum make me prove I didn't launder any money in order to obtain it. Maybe I'm just paranoid on that point, however.

    (If anyone knows a definitive answer, I'd be interested ... )

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  40. Cris, you beat me to it, and good thing because imo you nailed it re the WBs. As I see it, they appeared to do much more than simply claim credit for Tuesday, they predicted it days/weeks in advance and then predicted the days action early in the morning. This on a day where it was not just a great rise in silver; the minute-by-minute action looked like someone toying with the price, gold didn't match it's strength, and the miners definitely weren't as strong as they've been with similar silver moves.

    As you say, their primary stated motivation is to get a hefty premium to settle in cash when they stand for delivery. I agree with them that their goals are aligned with small buy-physical-and-hold investors like me, but that doesn't mean our goals are the same. Their biggest concern is JPM/Comex having enough silver to deliver; mine is the price. By them gathering contracts in strength they address my concern; by me (and many others) buying more physical I/we address theirs.

    And them gathering contracts this month (if they do) won't mean a rise every day, or necessarily slugging it out with the shorts of size toe-to-toe with two-by-fours in a parking lot. For that matter, I suspect that the move on Tuesday was at least in part an attempt at social engineering, showing the investing public what they could do to convince them to buy more physical. Well, I suspect they're better at trading than social engineering, but it still had it's effect.

    Not that I'm a 'true believer', but the events do appear to me to be unprecedented so far.

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  41. What other practical ways can a person invest in commodities? PMs are convenient, but I would like to spread my poor teacher's salary a bit more broadly. Any suggestions?

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  42. I think Wynter Benton just read all the skeptics - and now she is taking action. Silver up 20c in minutes!

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  43. Does anyone follow the PowerShares DB Agriculture fund...thoughts

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  44. Last 2 weeks outside day reversal in silver spot!! Friday, then last Thursday! Is this #3?

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  45. Dr. Jerome,
    Do some reading on NIA's website. Some hate them..some love them.. ..depends on your perspective about whether you think they are a pump & dump or whether you believe they actually care about the USA and are trying to alert people to what is going on with the Fed and our gov't at large. I personally fall in the latter category. I can tell you that I have put my money where my mouth is on many of their stock suggestions and I have not been disappointed. Their predictions likewise have been pretty much dead on.

    Do some reading in their NIAnswers section and do a search for commodities. They have several suggestions for good commodities picks. DIG is one they recommend for oil. MOO is a pick for ag commodities. SGG is a sugar etf that trades in the US. ..They have several others. I hope you find the information to be useful.

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  46. ..Ooops. forgot to say that NIAs website is inflation.us

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  47. I wonder if WB WILL stand for delivery yet is only now stating that they won't in order to really nail anyone short on the COMEX. That would be an insane whammy; make it clear that you're buying up loads of Comex contracts, push silver significantly higher under the guise of only looking for a significant premium at expiration, and instead notify the contract sellers that you ARE STANDING FOR DELIVERY!

    Does anyone realize what that would do to the price of silver? It would go SCREAMING higher as those who sold contracts went bananas looking for physical to deliver.

    It would be a genius move and if their original intent was to bust Comex that would be the coolest way to do it!

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  48. mythblasters.. I love your screen name.. HA!.. ..blythe masters.. myth blasters.. Original!

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  49. Turd called it again a possible FUBM forming.

    Damn he is good.

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  50. Eva-

    The issue (IMHO) with some of the agricultural ETFs is that you are investing in companies that use commodities, rather than a strait investment in the commodity. When the commodity goes up, the ETF may actually go down because the companies profit margin actually shrinks. For example, the cotton ETF BAL has gone limit up for 2 days in a row now (yeehaw!) because it directy tracks the raw cotton price. But a number of clothing manufacturers will go negative because of rising cotton prices.

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  51. Christine: Here you go...

    http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/little-hui-on-side.html

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  52. Question for futures traders. Has anyone ever used the gold vix GVZ to hedge a gold position?
    I've never traded futures but I have a couple of friends who had their heads handed to them in the futures market and so I'm little bit leery.
    I've used volatility to hedge stocks (back when I traded stocks) and it worked fairly well. right now, a gold vix etn/etf looks a ways in the future yet.

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  53. @myth - the process for doing both is the same. The contract holder has to declare intent to stand for delivery, put up full purchase price. Only THEN can he/she wait for the short contract holder/COMEX to attempt to bribe them with a premium. The counterside's strategy is likewise the same - they will try to gather physical to the extent they can, as that will minimize the premium they have to pay out OVER spot price to satisfy/buy off the contracts demanding delivery.

    OTOH, I am still entertaining the possibility that EE has knowledge of THE solution .gov and/or regulators have waiting in the wings. They KNOW their short asses will be saved, and the mechanism by which they will take place. So Wynter's Army is a JPM disinfo campaign. Don't have a theory as to HOW this might be feasible, but the timing seems (to my paranoid way of thinking) to be an answer to Max Keiser's buy physical, crash JPM campaign.

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  54. LOL, all this kabuki and we're dollar/PM flat for the day so far

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  55. You gotta love this game.....just BTFD...BTW you people need to be accumulating the physical. The price AND the premiums are going to get ugly

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  56. @jonathanlindsay It is a turdism for F**k You Blythe Masters.

    When the price of PM's goes straight up like the lone middle finger.

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  57. Thanks Turd. Are you still holding these stocks??

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  58. @CD - Wouldn't there be a difference between saying "we're after high premiums" and "we're standing for delivery" because it might not be that difficult for JPM or anyone else to pay a premium, but finding tens of millions of ounces would seemingly be near impossible in this environment...at least at prices anything near to what we have now.

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  59. If any of us here need more inspiration of a freaky sort, I urge you all to enter "white queen narnia" into GOOGLE IMAGES to get a clear view of the opposition - Blyth at her best. Gird your loins chaps!

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  60. Thanks Kiwi, appreciate your input

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  61. Christine: Yes, I am still long all five. They are the only five equities that I own.

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  62. Thanks Ginger!
    Buying as much physical as I can afford each month.

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  63. Dr. Jerome said...

    "What other practical ways can a person invest in commodities?"

    Buy nickels at face value, a 45% discount to the copper and nickel content.

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  64. Eva said...

    "Does anyone follow the PowerShares DB Agriculture fund...thoughts"

    Yes, I own some. They invest in the agricultural commodity futures. I figure it's a good way to hedge my grocery costs.

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  65. Thank you all for the responses and Turd for allowing this chatter. Just visited apmex.com and they have good prices (€ 25,56 single ASE / + 500 @ € 24,45) but the problem for me is that the dutch customs will VAT the shipment and I rather spent that money on more silver. Second option you guys mentioned is Germany (ASE 27,70 including 6% VAT) and that is in driving range for a pick up by yours truly. Luxemburg is also an option but I have to find some prices. same goes for Switzerland.

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  66. JJG another ag ETF. Corn, soybeans, wheat.
    Check it out.

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  67. The DBA is inefficient in the same regard as USO and UNG. It's the roll risk and contango.

    Re: Taking gold outside/into country.

    "
    In practice, if you're a US Citizen taking your own bullion OUT of the US, and its current value is more than $10k, expect to be detained at the airport and heavily questioned (and threatened) by the IRS... and don't be surprised if they audit you for the next 10 years. Under new US tax laws/IRS regulations, taking ANY assets out of the country is considered prima-facie evidence of tax-evasion."

    http://www.answerbag.com/q_view/820196

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  68. Rickjames,
    Thanks for the response. I'm not a a citizen of the US just a resident. I could have gotten citizenship a long time ago but chose not to based on the way I saw things unfolding in the USA. Don't get me wrong I like living here but sometime after 9/11 we took a wrong turn by setting up laws like the above. So I can take pretty much whatever I want out of the country as long as I can show a receipt. Or just ship stuff.
    Unfortunately, for US citizens that door is closed and getting tighter by the day.

    However, based on the responses the black market aka craigslist is not active in Euroland yet.

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