You can see it already. The EE has decided to vigorously defend the area around 33.40. Why there, I have no idea but you can clearly see it here on this latest hourly chart (WO edition):
Someone on the earlier thread posted some preliminary numbers for the March OI basis yesterday. The number was something like 48000+. If this is accurate, it is a truly astounding number! Again, by Monday at 1:30 EST, you either have to show 100% funds for delivery or be out. There is no in between. Watch this very, very, very closely today.
Lost amongst the shuffle of all the madness, this pig looks like crap. It must be watched closely as we are once again approaching some pretty significant, long-term technical levels.
You have a great seat for observing this epic battle. Enjoy.
As usual, more later. TF
10:50 EST UPDATE:
Well, this was pretty good...
"This is a chart that looks to me like it wants to go higher. Much higher. And soon. Like a pop up toward 34 and beyond is in the cards before too long."
If you're trading this morning, don't bail too quickly. Blythe is dealing with a severe counter-attack is surely under duress. Let this keep kicking higher for another 90 minutes or so. Sometime, after 12:30 EST, I'll be looking to finally sell my remaining March calls. On any subsequent pullback, I'll begin piling into May. TF
Nice to wake up to a new turd update.
ReplyDeleteBut i saw this from Time Magazine, and I said "Oh-oh":
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2052961,00.html
This could get VERY ugly.
Turd, any thoughts of what will happen to the May silver contracts? Would it be beneficial to pick up some now and hope that it gets a jump from the (hopefully) few looking to roll over at the last minute on Monday?
ReplyDeleteA thousand thanks Turd
ReplyDeleteYou're like a hoops coach at crunch time and we're your team, huddled around your clipboard as you draw up the play that'll win us the game
Turd, I read so many blogs but rarely post due to my day to day activities but I felt obliged to compliment you on your insightful yet humorous blog, not many people pull that combination off.
ReplyDeleteIndeed the Silver March OI numbers look amazing... do you think they have pre-agreed a premium payable with some of the holders already? Why otherwise do they publish this high number, why dont they just lie?
Turd - you have to wake up much earlier !!
ReplyDeleteIt is now 3.30 pm here in Europe .... ;)
Any suggestion? You were right yesterday, as usual, you said it would fall to $32.7 and that we should buy there :)
ReplyDeleteAnd I don't know if any of you are believers in "karma", but it is eerie to me that there are some reports that JPM is on the hook for billions as a result of insurance losses secondary to the tragedy in New Zealand:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-22/new-zealand-s-earthquake-may-become-costliest-insured-disaster-since-2008.html
"This could get VERY ugly."
ReplyDeleteNah, CIA will be there, protecting US interests.
A couple of things to look at while watching the battle rage today, both from King World News. 2 of my favorites have new items there today:
ReplyDelete1. John Embry comments on the Ag short squeeze:
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/2/22_Embry_-_Short_Squeeze_in_Silver,_Manipulators_Getting_Overrun.html
2. Audio interview with Pierre Lassonde. This is someone you need to listen to. I call him the French Canadian Midas as everything the man touches turns to gold. I knew I shoulda bought New Gold in the 7's in the January swoon but I was tapped out:
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/2/23_Pierre_Lassonde.html
Enjoy! And stay thirsty my Turdish friends.
I second the motion on Pierre Lassonde. Always a must listen.
ReplyDelete$97 oil.
ReplyDeleteSueco: First of all, thank you for joining the discussion.
ReplyDeleteRe the "pre-agreed" #...maybe for a very few. If word were to get out, well, you can imagine the buying panic that would ensue.
Re the OI #s...there is certainly a lot of fraud and deceit in the PM pits but putting out false and misleading daily OI numbers just wouldn't fly. However, at this late hour, anything is possible.
Alright, Goldman, Morgan Stanley: if word on "the Street" is correct, you are far less vulnerable to a rise in Silver than JPM with its shorts and derivative exposure. Isn't it time to play "last man standing"? You know you want to. Just a little nudge over the next few days is all it would take... or are ya chicken?
ReplyDeleteMy 24-hour gold chart sure looks nice.
ReplyDeleteA number of participants on Turd’s comment board are cheering for a Comex default. I, for one, can’t seem to tear myself away from the charts and blogs. How can I do my mundane job when we are teetering on the edge of a financial collapse?
ReplyDeleteWhat will be, will be.
But if there is no default in March, if the EE can some way settle, deliver, steal, get covert assistance, and arm-twist its way out of their squeeze, I believe this is a good thing. It gives us two more months of a relatively stable society, two more months to prepare, two more months of cheap silver & gold. If Comex does not default, we may have a template for how things might unfold in Mar-Apr. I might enjoy trading with a rough blueprint in hand and expert advice here on this blog.
bullish cross here
ReplyDeleteTurd, just an FYI... my broker, and most cash settled futures brokers, will force liquidation or roll over TODAY before the open for March contracts. Only brokers who allow delivery will leave the contract open until Friday.
ReplyDeleteTherefore, I'm expecting at least 15-20% to come off in OI today.
Also, a few other reasons to expect OI to drop:
1. Covered call writers will be rolling over to May.
2. April/may option premiums are very attractive to option writers.
If we see anything over 35k in OI after today, then it's trouble for the shorts. I'm expecting 30k tomorrow. Let the fireworks begin.
It seems that Blythe is fighting against Destiny (revolution). She will be steamrolled.
ReplyDeleteGreat points, Myron. Very important info.
ReplyDeleteFUBM?!?!?!
Impact Silver ISVLF doing well this morning, up 13%
ReplyDelete9 min to go till existing home sales..
ReplyDeletemaybe the point BM starts the attack again ?
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteShe has the Home Sales Numbers well in advance!
ReplyDeleteCris said...
ReplyDelete"And I don't know if any of you are believers in "karma", but it is eerie to me that there are some reports that JPM is on the hook for billions as a result of insurance losses secondary to the tragedy in New Zealand:"
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-22/new-zealand-s-earthquake-may-become-costliest-insured-disaster-since-2008.html
Are you sure? The following was the only mention of Morgan in the story you linked to:
"Insured losses from yesterday’s temblor may be $12 billion, Michael Huttner, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co., said in a note to clients."
Myron, given the likely OI, would you recommend BTFD on any FUTF plunge below $33?
ReplyDeleteGPL showed good relative strength yesterday, up nicely today so far 3.86%
ReplyDeleteI have a feeling GPL & SLW will be fund faves going forward
My word verification: "slises", as in solid slices of your investing pie
30min and hourly charts suggest Volatility squeeze!
ReplyDeleteWow, did silver just gap up or is my screen dirty? @10am EST
ReplyDeleteI'm using the 24hgold charts. They have lots of great miner info as well as most of the general precious metal articles.
I've already rolled over to May and will wait for the fireworks to commence.
ReplyDeleteOne thing I'm wondering, how crazy will the backwardation get if the Comex actually does reach a default situation?
One would think that the March contract would need to be cash settled at a crazy premium while the May and later contracts would receive all new open interest starting tomorrow.
In other words, you could theoretically see March selling at $200 while May is at $80, July at $60, etc.
It's a black swan kind of event, not necessarily a "new normal" for the silver market. If JPM defaults, then couldn't they simply decide to settle in cash for March, then cover their shorts and take paper losses for the next 2-3 months while rebuilding the silver stockpiles for the late summer?
It would probably be a heck of a squeeze (a few months maybe) but one would believe new Comex regulations would immediately appear limiting price action and/or new positions. I'd still celebrate their failure as long as it didn't throw the world into the dark ages via instant hyperinflation.
Sumo
ReplyDeleteYeah, I saw that Impact Silver. Poor Ginger. She's gonna FREAK!
Wow! I look away for 10 minutes and we get a full-blown FUBM (heh heh. he said full blown)
ReplyDeleteQuestion for anyone:
ReplyDeleteI am holding March SLV calls, but I hear everyone else talking about April or May calls. Is there a compelling reason for me to not trade this close to March exp?
Dr Jerome,
ReplyDeleteDont sweat it , the COMEX wont default, at least not yet. They have trillions to pay out, if needed for cash settlements .They are never going to allow thier last million ounces fly out the door.
This is going to go on for a while, and unless they start doing things different, they are going to be a cash cow for everyone.
Not saying it cant happen, I just dont think its there yet. and as much as I hate those criminals I dont want to see an economic collaspe .
gold hitting 1409 on netdania.
ReplyDeleteThe bull is really goring the shorts.
You can see the FUTF tries when you have the volume toggled on.
When switching to silver, you can see the trades at 33.40 moving thru to 33.44.
Funny word verify today is "subblocu"---german wolfpac entering the fray?
Yesterday's word verify was "flationus" --- lol
Eric, I bought ISVLF yesterday :-). Kept raising my bid, grudgingly, till I got a fill. I'm still kicking myself for not buying it sooner.
ReplyDeleteSilver and Gold looking strong since the 9:30 open. There was a distinct change in market movement at that time, looks like Blythe let the reigns go for now.
ReplyDeleteGold's recent high in the latest runup was ~1411. Gold is making higher highs, while silver is at 33.30 after just touching 33.40 for a second. It looks like to me that we will overcome these barriers, and then we shall see where it goes from there...
Crude oil is spiking right now up 2$ in the last hour and a halfish, and I am following this closely. If any of you listen to Lindsey Williams, there was a great interview on Alex Jones with him yesterday. Lindsey Williams explained how oil will be going up to 150$ then 200$ and forcing the arab states into unrest (and also our country). At that point, he believes that the oil fields in Texas, Montana, and especially Alaska (where there is 300 years supply worth of oil) will then open up to fuel America. These oil fields will only be tapped once gas is $5+ (200$+) a barrel, as the big monopoly oil refuses to not insanely profit off of their own resources before exploiting OPEC nations.
Anyways, Crude is going to be very interesting especially looking at the 10$ discount it has to brent oil still. From what I understand, WTI crude oil usually trades at a 2$ premium to Brent oil, but is at a 10$ discount... that smells like blythe to me, but there may be some other explanation... eitherway I am looking for crude to start taking off and I would imagine it carrying gold/silver on top of all of the other crap going on...
Anyways.. cheers
-
Scott J
Roger KNights:
ReplyDeletetrying to find link that said JPM would suffer losses of $5B out of the current estimates of $12B.
I may have misunderstood that point, as I cant find any link now about that.
Sorry...I was still freaked out about that report from Libya.
Any oil disruption would have a rippling almost exponential effect through the economy, and to an extent I believe, PMs.
And then I read the New Zealand thing. Prob just got worked up -- it happens.
A bounce off of 33.40...spot on, bud.
ReplyDeleteDoc: Your SLV calls won't expire until the third friday of March. We're talking about or March silver futures calls, which expire at the Comex close today.
ReplyDeleteHind: Thanks but I don't think Blythe can hold it there much longer. She'll have to fall back next time.
ReplyDelete@sumo
ReplyDelete32.40 was probably the BTFD moment.
31.65 and 30.65 are major support if we go under. I'd buy at either of those levels.... not only paper, but physical.
The funny thing about this market is that physical silver demand used to fade above $20-25 and now physical demand remains high above $30. Any drops to $30 are buying opportunities. Any drops below $30 will only shake paper silver (leverage), not physical holders.
Buy paper when the market is rising and buy physical when the market is dropping. That's my plan at least.
To TF:
ReplyDeleteAre the defensive lines at $34.40 and $34.60 due to options or futures contract definitions set at $0.20 steps for silver?
Whoever it is - strippers, bullion desks at Chinese commercial banks, SAFE, PBoC - they have seriously deep pockets and tungsten balls to take on Blythe and her pirate crew.
ReplyDeleteJPM is not to be trifled with, not with Fed backing.
33.40 looks like it's gonna become support shortly.
ReplyDeleteGold now at 1412... Higher than it was on Monday...
ReplyDeleteI think that tells the story...
-
Oh Wow the buyers just came out of nowhere... 30.55! Eat it BM!
ReplyDeleteOn the emotion issue - this board is doing a good job keeping that in check, even when I have a most un-Jedi-like outburst. lol
ReplyDeleteOn the geopolitical/macro issue- the decrease in Libyan oil/gas pipeline exportation appears to impact Italy significantly. Italy seems stuck at this point.
The Italian conundrum seems to be:
Pipelines to Italy cut off gas supply...so fuel costs and heating costs should be moving much higher in Italy right now.
Tied to the Euro and can not print out of the problem, as more money gets sucked up by the fuel suppliers.
Massive debts to the other EU nations, these debts should be mounting each day that the Italians get choked by Libya.
Berlusconi in direct legal trouble (leaderless)
Now, ZeroHedge has a story about the credit default swap value on Italy
Who needs Portugal, Spain, Iceland, or Ireland when you have Italy?
Meanwhile, the big banks in the US keep telling us to ignore the precious metals and "move along".
Silver - March call option open interests (expiring today)
ReplyDelete33C - 668
34C - 923
35C - 2,636
40C - 2,264
Pretty surprising the amount of interest as high as 40. Those are lottery tickets.
looks like gold is poised to take new highs soon
ReplyDeleteoops - 33.55! make that 33.72!
ReplyDeleteScott: Yeah I listened to the Alex Jones Lindsey Williams too... some interesting info. I just hate the way the info is dribbled out from him. makes me suspicious he's just selling prophecy club dvd's. Still, info is info....
ReplyDeleteDr J: Yeah I know how you feel. I bought in a lot of Ag and Au on Friday. But, it's hard to be happy with what looks like a world gone mad...
Wow...
ReplyDeleteCris: CIA and "contractors" will take care of oil in Libya. Relax.
ReplyDeleteIn the 70's, when Saudia Arabia shut off oil exports, Kissinger told the Saudis to turn it back on, or the US would invade. According to declassified documents, the US military had the invasion planned and ready. The Saudis turned the oil back on.
Shit gets real, real fast, when vital economic interests are threatened. US has warships in the region now, probably for this reason.
The chart is starting to look like a surface to air missle
ReplyDeleteFor what it's worth, highest ever data volumes being recorded from a market data perspective in the last few mins.
ReplyDeleteThat was a big one
ReplyDeleteWowooosh!.....
ReplyDeleteLol, an ICBM (Intercontinental Ballistic Missile)
ReplyDelete@BetPharaoh -- on silver contracts, the COMEX or the markets in general?
ReplyDeleteTRE -- I'm dug in deep because I heart Jim Sinclair, but does anyone have insights as to why it's been stagnant these past two days despite the ups and downs, downs and ups?
ReplyDeletethe light volume on this leg up is bothering me...
ReplyDeleteI suppose I should say this... does anyone have any thoughts on the implication of this price action for the OI close out in 2 hours?
ReplyDeleteIt seems to me that we have our answer even without looking at the OI.
Ok, we're seriously rolling. The WB "question" looks more and more plausible which each UPtick.
ReplyDeleteProbably slow down near 34. Once through there, Blythe will undoubtedly try to hold the highs of Monday evening near 34.30
Or, is that OI close out right now?
ReplyDeleteOh yeah, The players are are on the field
ReplyDeleteomen.
ReplyDeletein a conversation this morning i said "the market" -- and then i stopped and realized that, for the first time in my life, i had used that phrase to refer not to stocks -- but to silver.
and then i realized that i *forgot* to check stocks yesterday!
the future has taken root in the present.
As a group, my little miners get their butt kicked by SLW everyday. Gee, maybe there's a lesson in there somewhere.....
ReplyDeleteThe movement from 1/1/11 through to present is one big FUBM consisting of many mini FUBM's. I'm sure glad I bought the big dip at Turd's bottom (and many of the minis as well), thanks to Doctor Turd himself.
ReplyDeletehow to make money as euro, any good ideas?
ReplyDelete@CD, total market volume globally
ReplyDeleteMark: Glad I was able to help.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, it seems nobody wants to really talk about the Elephant in the room – the likelihood that Saudi Arabia will soon undergo the same sort of popular uprisings that have occured in Egypt, Lybia, etc.
ReplyDeleteShould have a positive impact on Silver & Gold, though...
Volume down at 10;00 AM forward.What's up with that?
ReplyDeleteWhy did volume drop COMPLETELY OFF at 10am? It's very strange.
ReplyDeleteYou can view volume here:
http://netdania.com/Products/live-streaming-currency-exchange-rates/real-time-forex-charts/FinanceChart.aspx?m=c
Eric, you just touched on the best reason for a 2 track approach. I use the explorers and juniors to make gains used to buy PM and the SLW's and FNNVF's of the world. I have a speculative group and then what I consider to be the Rocks of Gibraltar. I bubble up gains in what I see as a hierarchy of value and safety. But I'd own way less of the good stuff I didn't know my explorers, that's for sure.
ReplyDeleteRe Brent vs WTI.
ReplyDeleteSee SPR- Strategic Petroleum Reserve
My guess is that the DOE is flooding Cushings with WTI from the SPR. Rob Kirby did a good piece on the impact of SPR swaps on the price of WTI.
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1234386901.php
AAPL is up, but so are long-dated OTM puts and the VIX. Hedge funds have large positions in AAPL - hard to unwind, so they will buy protection instead.
ReplyDeleteRare earth and uranium miners doing ok today.
hmmm... can someone explain on the lack of volume??????
ReplyDelete@Mammoth: The Saudi king is already giving concessions trying to avert an uprising.
ReplyDeleteRe the volume: Blythe is seriously running out of ammo. I would imagine she is saving her firepower for a full, frontal assault later today.
ReplyDeleteIt broke I guess...trading is still going on in AGQ but the volume isn't moving.
ReplyDeletelunch break on the traders.....gotta feed the beast.
ReplyDeleteI have the same question about volume . . . it seems like BM and BoS suddenly called a cease-fire. I was thinking the battle would continue to 34 either quickly or slowly depending on how much ammo BM had. Can anyone explain the sudden drop in volume and sideways price action below the HOD?
ReplyDeleteSo Turd...we should get out and wait? I happened to have bought RIGHT at the top today...thinking another big run up. I can get out now cheap and come in later...???
ReplyDeleteTY Turd . . . so the PoS are happy to let price drift on it's own rather than drive price up too fast as a defense against her later attacks. That's smart.
ReplyDeletePoS = BoS (can't type this morning ... too much excitement)
ReplyDeleteTough call, Joe. What's your gut say?
ReplyDeleteOn Seeking Alpha:
ReplyDeleteCoeur d'Alene: My Favorite Silver Miner
something is not right. volume makes no sense. good volume in gold. how about deferred future months? anybody see volume drop there too?
ReplyDelete@Myron you said
ReplyDelete"my broker, and most cash settled futures brokers, will force liquidation or roll over TODAY before the open for March contracts. Only brokers who allow delivery will leave the contract open until Friday."
at Think or Swim you can hold your positions until Friday. I received this message from TOS.
"You are receiving this e-mail because you have a position in or have traded March Silver futures. Please note that First Position Day for March Silver futures is Friday, February 25th.
Because this product is physically settled and thinkorswim does not facilitate delivery of physically settled products, we ask that you close or roll your March contract(s) to the next active month on or before Thursday, 2/24/11. Any /SIH1 futures position carried into First Position Day will be liquidated at anytime on that date (2/25/11) at the discretion of thinkorswim."
@ Joe - No one can predict a Top or a Bottom. Just use your instincts and BTFD. This market is on a bull run and the only thing to do in these situations is to wait for a dip and then buy.
ReplyDeleteAround $33.75 becoming a Resistance.
ReplyDeleteLooking for a quick punch here. UP toward 33.90-34.
ReplyDelete$98 oil
ReplyDeleteanyone planning on cashing in some of their AGQ today?
ReplyDeleteThis is my observation. I don't think you can really play the paper game successfully against JPM when they have Fed backing.
ReplyDeleteI believe that the ONLY way you can do this is go to every damn coin shop, all 6,000 of them, and clean out their gold and silver. Make the demand felt so hard that the refiners have to go to their brokers to get industrial bars to make retail products (taking away the industrial bar supply from the other industrial users) and make those products get sucked through the retail channel all the way down to the coin shops, and KEEP IT GOING.
You've seen it before. Rules get rewritten against you all the time. The only way to defeat these bastards is to have the stuff in hand where you can see it a foot from you. I would not be surprised if JPM gets grandfathered in under "extenuating circumstances" and thusly gets more time to bring their shorts under the position limit past the implementation date of the position limits (3-28-11).
Trust me, that is the nature of human nature. I tell you... When I die physically, and I find out I have the ability to do it, I would most likely trigger some sort of device in the earth itself, whether it's some deep freeze mechanism or a core detonator that destroys the planet. The experiment called Living on Earth as Humans (with tools, language, and thought skills) is a very bad idea. Very bad. I'm not even sure I would want to see an effort to create a more refined race of beings wasted. Just be happy in the spiritual form.
That is my fucking rant for the day.
SE
Joining in late today, but want to give a "shout out" to our NZ people. Hope you are all okay!
ReplyDeleteso who's gonna come out firing first?? interesting... very interesting indeed...
ReplyDeleteSold all my SIL traded for GPL. Now just big positons in SLW and GPL
ReplyDeleteTyler,
ReplyDeleteI sold half my position in AGQ when we hit $185. Selling the rest if/once we crack $34 spot
This is not a top I'm willing to try and time. VERY happy with these returns, on to the next trade
Can you please enlighten me what platform to use to buy silver, physical silver or trading(etf/cfd)?
ReplyDelete@ 6a1dbcdc-3c89-11e0-b484-000bcdcb8a73
ReplyDeleteWow! Good rant. ;-)
not to belabor the point but something is not right with this volume. I am taking half off the table here. I can always buy it back.
ReplyDeleteover an hour now without any volume... still waiting.....
ReplyDeletebreakout or breakdown?
ReplyDeleteIf The Morgue, & any other shorts, settle by paying a premium of say 20%, we (the public) will never know and the price of silver which should reflect this included premium will never be known.
ReplyDeletein a crisis, can they just sit on orders?
ReplyDeleteI sacfriced myself and took half my AGQ off. Now we will breakout.
ReplyDeletelollercoaster, open a CFD/spread betting account or an FX trading account with Oanda (which allows trading of Gold and Silver vs. any currency)
ReplyDeleteIt's not as easy as it looks thou (believe me I should know-my losses prove it) so be prepared..
Looks like it might be warming up. Did the combatants have to carry out the wounded?
ReplyDelete@Wendy
ReplyDeleteSeems to me you have good point. How many people, besides those already watching the silver market (like us), will know that they had to settle with cash?
I would be interested in what the more knowledgeable commentors think...
HERE COMES BLYTHE WITH THE FIRST STRIKE!!!
ReplyDeletepick52
ReplyDeleteI took your lead and sold half. buying the dip?
SHE's BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACK
ReplyDeleteAtlee,
ReplyDeleteI took some of my AGQ profit and bought some SLW puts for protection. I figure I'll probably lose that money, but having insurance is good for the nerves
tyler
ReplyDeleteI am definately buying the dip!
Pick
Put was probably a good idea. cheap insurance.
Joe don't sell yet, wait until 1:30 to 2 EST, we have another 50 cent piece
ReplyDelete@Wendy
ReplyDeleteThat's what scares me, too. If COMEX settles for cash plus premium instead of delivery, won't it be obvious that the buyers were just after the premium, and not really interested in the silver?
If that is what happens, won't the price of silver drop (physical, not paper necessarily)?
Demand for physical would be seen to have dropped, even though I'd imagine that, unless basic rules change on the COMEX, those chasing a cash+premium settlement will just buy more contracts and do it all again.
But then, that still makes it obvious that demand for physical silver is an illusion, so physical price drops.
I'm a total newbie at this, so I'm likely missing some pieces of the puzzle. I just don't know what those pieces are.
Gold is making new highs Right now... here we go??
ReplyDeleteJeez. Did everyone see the video from Greece on ZH? Holy crap!
ReplyDeleteThe entire world is on fire, not just that poor policeman.
I have no idea what the world will look like 30 days from now. None.
Go here soon:
ReplyDeletehttp://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/02/4-hour-silver-chart_23.html
Tyler,
ReplyDeleteNot buying anymore silver here...I loaded up when Turd called 26.50, and that's a plenty long ride for me. Not only did we get the middle chunk of the ride, we got the very bottom too.
I'm pulling everything long off the table, and will let my March 39 strike SLW puts expire worthless if necessary
Gonna sell the remaining AGQ once we crack 33.50 on the downside or 34 on the up, let whatever may come come, then let the dust settle and start building my next position
Keep me posted on your moves
Blythe lunch time raid, to be soon followed by raid 20 minute before close, then they throw the kitchen sink at it during the Globex.
ReplyDeleteI agree Turd, there is no telling. Wicked video.
@Atlee - for the good of the team! Haha
ReplyDelete@All - Why are we saying BM is back? Where do you see signs of her? It's been stuck in this rut for some time now...
I still think 34 is coming...be patient.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete"CIA spy" Davis was giving nuclear bomb material to Al-Qaeda, says report
ReplyDeletehttp://in.news.yahoo.com/cia-spy-davis-giving-nuclear-bomb-material-al-20110219-224833-452.html
James Bond???
Anyone else watching the action on TRE today? Wish I knew what is up.
ReplyDeleteLong TRE stock plus April and July calls.
Btw, I ordered my Berkey water filter system yes'turd'ay. Thanks to all who recommended it. Can't wait for it to get here.
ReplyDeleteAlso, Great Panther is treating daddy quite well.
ReplyDeleteThanks for that one, too. You guys are awesome!
Crude just pinged 98.99 a barrel, the dropped back to 98.95. Strong upside. Not a good sign for the Mideast or the US
ReplyDeleteWendy & Vic - I have been thinking exactly along the same lines, will we get a pullback to $30 in the first trading days next week?
ReplyDeleteAdd to that we are very close to ath with many nervous potentially trigger happy sellers.... I beginning to wonder if it could be worth putting a short on to make some fiat to buy more physical..
Of course it will be a shortlived pullback and in the end only physical matters...
WOW are you guys seeing this raid? FUBM!!!!
ReplyDeleteVincent Lee,
ReplyDeleteMost people here have bought physical silver, either from a local coin dealer or through online stores such as Gainsville, Provident, Apmex, etc. Many also trade /SI futures contracts and futures option contracts. Many trade the silver mining stocks--read the posts for good tips and research as these can be volatile. some buy ETF shares and options in SLV, GLD -- but trust levels in the solvency of these funds is low. Other PM funds are mentioned that offer physical delivery if you like.
There is better advice than mine floating around here...keep reading. visit the sites that other comments post--always worth your time.
TRE guess- there was a lot of speculation leading up to the AGM yesterday; while an excellent update, there were no immediate game-changers press releases, so the immediate gratification crowd and momo's might be moving on.
ReplyDeleteBut I really have no idea.
There is a serious battle being waged in the area around 33.60!
ReplyDeleteIt's all gold today (vs silver) and I'm rooting for a close above 1420!!!
ReplyDeleteTurd, which model of the Berkey did you buy?
ReplyDeleteThanks to Scottj88 on the GPL. Bought some last week and am currently up over 29%.
After selling half of my miners yesterday and thinking of rebuilding positions when the HUI gets below 540, I'm getting sick, I think I missed the boat. Last read of 560, it's time for me to ignore the market, go 80% all in, and do a Jesse Livermore "...
ReplyDelete•It was never my thinking that made the big money for me. It was my sitting, my sitting tight."
Congrats for those of you who were BTFD yesterday!
Comex Mar OI final, 22 Feb: 39,528, down 11,320. This is the first of the big drops we've been waiting for.
ReplyDeleteI don't know if this was the bomb Andrew McGuire was saving, but maybe someone on here could explain this:
ReplyDeletehttp://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/2/23_Silver_Whistleblower_Andrew_Maguire_Launches_Metals_Service.html
Crude Oil up to 99.50... up 4.50$ today.. how long until this spills over into precious metals market???
ReplyDeletehttp://www.futurespros.com/energies/crude-oil-streaming-chart
We are closing in on 100 fast...
Up $4.10 today... sorry
ReplyDeleteLets see if we hold 33.40
ReplyDeleteLooks like Morocco is joining the party:
ReplyDeletehttp://on.wsj.com/dE3Gdw
Saudi Arabia can't be far behind.
$5 a gallon gas coming up.
Down goes Frazier! Down goes Ali! Down goes Frazier! Damn, seems like a battle royale today.
ReplyDeleteThat ORD in the miners yesterday is not following thru at all.
ReplyDeleteWhen it comes to TA, my kung fu is bad, but I would think the failure of a downside ORD to follow thru is pretty darn bullish.
Another raid. Geez. Wow. Intense!!!
ReplyDeleteIts Hammer Time!!!
ReplyDeleteRetest of the breakout. BTFD
ReplyDeleteThere's the lunch time raid...
ReplyDeleteahh here comes the volume. My trigger finger is getting itchy around 33.25
ReplyDeletegold holds above 1410. this is great sign,
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteJust closed the last of my March calls. Glad that's over.
ReplyDeleteStill can't believe I made money. It was such a stoopid trade to buy them last Friday. Whew!
FUBM in process.
ReplyDeletebig bounce after 12:30? thinking about buying this one
ReplyDelete@ Piter
ReplyDeleteI agree, it is like all the action is only in silver. Silver moves by 2-3%, and gold hardly flinches. Its just a giant bull flag in gold, and silver exclusively is moving. Could this signal turmoil in the silver market?
-
Very intriguing...
Oil closing in on $100... that has to spillover
I will watch for gold weakness before I worry...
Dang, limit order of 33.24 didn't trigger. Oh well, I'd rather watch it tic up and kick myself for not being in than watch it fall out of the sky with further attacks...
ReplyDeleteThe battle for middle earth has begun
ReplyDelete@Turd - Are those the "Stoopid" calls you placed at 32.70 just yesterday?
ReplyDeleteCNBS suggesting Oil could hit $220.
ReplyDeleteKeep those stories coming guys
ah -- ok, here's my theory.
ReplyDelete1. naked shorting has best leverage in a thinly-traded market.
2. but if you're in real trouble, and if you know you will not be prosecuted, you *create* a thinly-traded market by simply withholding buy-orders for anhour, while you mount your attack.
3. if people complain, tell them 'it was market congestion'.
4. if they keep complaining, refer them to the CFTC, and send those guys an extra check or two.
I see March OI at 39528, a loss of 11320 contracts
ReplyDeleteCheck this out gents:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/and-wow-feds-hoenig-says-united-states-has-deeply-undermined-free-market-capitalism
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeletei also see OI at 39538 - don't like that drop
ReplyDeleteTyler
ReplyDeletepartial fill on AGQ at 179.70 limit order. Might get second chance, Probably should have used mkt order.
If we get another chance down around that 33.25 I am all over it.
Bot USO Tuesday morning on open. WOW! should have bot more.
Exciting stuff at ZH this morning. Oil up, Itally CDS spike (good luck bailing out Itally's 1 Trillion+ debt!), QE3 almost a sure thing, US dollar down. How is this not bullish for PMs is beyond me. Also wil JP Morgan be on the hook for the 12 Billion in damage for the Earthquake insurance claims, or is that somebody else?
ReplyDeleteThe world is on fire!
Heck, even ZH was down for a few mins. Must be the load.
"I see March OI at 39528, a loss of 11320 contracts" - Cash settlements? Or is this where the SLV silver went?
ReplyDeleteHey Turd,
ReplyDeleteYou are going to get little silver with your water filter. I can say at least I paid for that and much more ;)
39,538...and supposedly $33-37 is a draw...and supposedly will be deciding to stand for delivery if we're below $37
ReplyDeleteHmmmmmm
I'd love to see the silver auger come out here in the last 45 mins for full confirmation of the stated goal
If you want to stand for delivery, you want the price as low as possible, but if you want people to roll their contracts, you want the price as high as possible. So who are we (retail traders) allied with today?
ReplyDeleteNearly everything is RED again today, except top right hand quadrant... comodities/basic materials.
ReplyDeletehttp://finviz.com/map.ashx
Anecdote from Germany: my trusted coin dealer is completely out of 1/4 ounce gold coins - no Philharmonikers, no Maples, nada. Gues I waited to long ... :-((
ReplyDeleteThis is getting completely insane...
ReplyDeletehttp://in.news.yahoo.com/cia-spy-davis-giving-nuclear-bomb-material-al-20110219-224833-452.html
atlee, wonder if we'll get down to 33.25 today. seems we would need a big EE push
ReplyDeleteXaritas that actually makes some sense. So if I'm standing for delivery I want the price low so that the remaining payment I have to make for the order is as low as possible. So, umm wouldn't that mean that we're thinking about this in reverse? Wouldn't blythe want the price higher so that people DONT stand for delivery?
ReplyDeleteWhats that? Do I see a hammer in the 1 hour silver???
ReplyDeleteI love Gold. !
ReplyDeleteAnyone brave enough to short the s&p?
ReplyDeleteDon't forget about the yellow metal. Could test all time highs today.
ReplyDeleteflaunt
ReplyDeleteI've gotten beat on that one so many times over the last 6 months, I just had to quit.
@Flaunt... could not help buying some S&P 1000 June puts earlier today
ReplyDelete"The most ominous point in this SVR report is "Pakistan's ISI stating that top-secret CIA documents found in Davis's possession point to his, and/or TF373, providing to al Qaeda terrorists "nuclear fissile material" and "biological agents", which they claim are to be used against the United States itself in order to ignite an all-out war in order to re-establish the West's hegemony over a Global economy that is warned is just months away from collapse" the paper added. (ANI)
ReplyDelete..."
@flaunt
ReplyDeleteDo out of the money puts of JPM count?
Looks to me like the s... is hitting the fan. The Italians are just not yet protesting, but see what the Greeks do (taken from ZH)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GthZEd35xwI&feature=player_embedded#t=101s
Blythe is meanwhile trying to keep the lid on the pressure cooker silver. By now, she should be feeling like trying to hold a diarrhea after massive food poisening.
Pat, Randy, et al:
ReplyDeleteRe: Chinese government encouraging its citizens to purchase silver bullion
Click here for a 59-second video clip from Chinese television.
I knew the dropping open interest was going to happen. What is the chance that the BW thing is social engineering to get you on the wrong side of the trade? Why have some of you decided to roll over into May? I thought the game here was to either settle for premium or stand for delivery. I realize that 6-8000 contracts for delivery is about all it takes to break COMEX, but something tells me that OI is going to roll over as usual to May. I believe that OI will fall below 5,000 contracts, mostly for settling. That BW group out there can't possibly have that kind of money to fund 100% and stand for delivery...
ReplyDeleteSomething also tells me that I will be able to buy silver on the cheap within the month. Regardless, I'm all in.
SE
Tyler
ReplyDeleteI think it is possible.
Scott,
ReplyDeleteAbove you mentioned Lindsey Williams and the high price of oil coming up. Are you looking into US Oil stocks that might benefit from possible resurgence in homeland drilling? Lindsey might be right in the end, but I can't see Obama allowing drilling unless people actually DEMAND it in huge numbers.
Santulli just gave the 5 yr note auction a "D minus"
ReplyDeleteIs the smell of another market crisis the reason volume is so low on silver? Gold volume is higher by contrast.
ReplyDeleteThat Lindsey Williams crap about how there are these secret oil reserves out there waiting for $200 oil to come out of the ground and save the US of A is total BS. Excuse my french.
ReplyDeleteSilverSurfer, could the low volume simply be the BOS waiting for a BM raid before they start buying?
ReplyDeleteJohn 97205,
ReplyDeleteThat video is from 2009. Old news.
Mr. Turd,
ReplyDeleteI have been lurking here for a while and I must congratulate you for building such a great community. I spend time on other financial/news sites, however, there is a lot of useful information here and I appreciate your openness (and that of the other visitors) to show us what is going on, in easy to understand, no BS fashion.
Thank you.
scott
ReplyDelete3 beneficiaries for sometime have been the Canadian oil sands stocks. Not a new story but strong. They are CNQ SU and CVE check them out.
Bought some Russell 2000 puts and some JPM puts this morning, and I went long USO (July options). And of course my PMs are doing great. It's going to be hard to get used to my trading account not being up 3-5% daily when this is all over. What a week!
ReplyDeleteIt's another good day in Turd's world. Unfortunately it's probably a bad day in the rest of the world.