Monday, February 21, 2011

Manic Monday

First of all, if its stuck in my head, it should be stuck in yours, too. Plus, Susanna Hoffs is HOT:

OK, back to business. How about this little gem:

"Since the "issues" are on the Comex, don't expect a lot of fireworks overnight or tomorrow. On balance, I'd expect that dips will be bought and rallies will be sold until Tuesday morning."

Oops. Shows you what I know. Worldwide conflagration and an unprecedented short squeeze in silver can even make The Turd look silly. We are living through history and, as you know, history is not written in the future tense.

So, what to expect today. I wish I could tell you with some certainty but I can't. I have a last in March silver of 33.74 and April gold is 1405. Most significantly, crude oil is up almost $4 as events in Libya are unfolding at an amazing pace.

At this point, you almost have to expect the PMs to remain higher throughout the day. Tensions in the Middle East aren't calming today and there certainly seems to be enough buyers on the Globex to thwart any attempt the EE may make to "shake the tree". (A little Harvey parlance for you.)

Tomorrow is Happy Tuesday but I doubt the CoT report matters much to Blythe and The Monkeys at this point. It is going to be an extraordinary, if not historic, day. So, enjoy today. Watch the headlines. Keep checking in from time to time as I will update as conditions warrant.

In case you missed it, here's the link to the latest from Turd Productions:

Finally, today in the U.S. is our holiday called President's Day. It is a single day holiday designated for Americans to remember the lives of our two greatest presidents, Washington and Lincoln. It is fitting, therefore, at this crucial moment in history for us to recall the words of Abraham Lincoln:

Four score and seven years ago our fathers brought forth, upon this continent, a new nation, conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal.
Now we are engaged in a great civil war, testing whether that nation, or any nation so conceived, and so dedicated, can long endure. We are met here on a great battlefield of that war. We have come to dedicate a portion of it as a final resting place for those who here gave their lives that that nation might live. It is altogether fitting and proper that we should do this.
But in a larger sense we can not dedicate - we can not consecrate - we can not hallow this ground. The brave men, living and dead, who struggled, here, have consecrated it far above our poor power to add or detract. The world will little note, nor long remember, what we say here, but can never forget what they did here.
It is for us, the living, rather to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they have, thus far, so nobly carried on. It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us - that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they here gave the last full measure of devotion - that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain; that this nation shall have a new birth of freedom; and that this government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.

My prayer for all of us is that the final few words of this address will always remain true.

More later. TF

1:30 pm EST UPDATE:
Let's watch the $34 level as we go through the evening and overnight. Though spot silver has traded through there, the high on the March contract was 34.995 before backing off a little. We are now rebounding and I have a last of 33.87.
Gold is rolling, too, as I have a high of 1409 and a last of 1407. If we are still above 1400-1405 at tomorrow's Comex open, expect heavy buying from the momentum-chasing algos. We could see 1420-30 pretty quick.
Crude is going crazy and I'm a little pissed off that I missed it. The April contract is up $5.68 at $95.39. When the spread between WTI and Brent reached a level where it was a couple of standard deviations away from the norm, you knew the WTI was set to explode...and it has. Nuts. I hope some of you have at least made some money.
Along those lines, I want to thank again all of you who have chosen to share some of your trading profits with me through the "feed the turd" button. Your generosity is overwhelming and I plan to utilize the funds to build us a better playground. I know our "sponsors" appreciate you visiting their sites, too.
I hope to have a new post for you later this afternoon.


  1. "We are living through history and, as you know, history is not written in the future tense." - That's pretty deep Turdism right there!

  2. No matter what your take is on this countrys politics, it is the best "experiment of freedom" human history has ever known.

    Very grateful for you Turd.

  3. What are the trading hours for the Globex? Is it going to halt trading overseas for the day while the comex is closed today?

  4. A couple of points:

    1. We have now left behind the previous best guess at resistance @ 33.50, offered by both Turd and Dan Norcini. And we did it befor 10AM on MONDAY morning. Things are getting disorderly.

    2. Whatever one thinks of the "truth" of Wynter Benton, the LONG documented (thanks Louis Cypher) plan of the group was to buy THE BULK of their contracts THIS COMING WEEK.

    Think about that.

    In light of all we have seen, and I cannot think of a SINGLE thing the WB group has said that has not come to pass and does not make sense, we may be facing an onslaught of BUYING this week.

    Now we can out-think ourselves and posit a grand trap etc.

    But we on Turd's Kingdom have always fancied ourselves as clear-eyed. We have ALWAYS called a spade a spade when we saw CLEAR evidence of donwside manipulation that the mainstream press (and even our own loved ones) thought we were crazy to talk about.

    I think we should open ourselves to the possibility that we are seeing real time manipulation to THE UPSIDE. And we should think about what that will mean.

    Not to say the EE is dead and should be underestimated at all.

    But we have to consider all possibilities, and we are in uncharted water.

    The best thing of all is that WE SHALL SEE... and soon.

  5. Trader Dan had a new silver chart up last night, but this market is so crazy it has already blown through his target.

  6. Can you imagine being a big short in this market right now? You let it ride over the weekend hoping that the explosion of Thurs and Friday would blow off and you could clear some ugly positions on Tues? Now look at your position- gap up over 1$ at least before the open Tuesday, external forces beyond your control aligning against you. Smell the fear, people. And a whiff of something... just maybe... parabolic.

    If you missed it, Turd's posting of Trader Dan on Commercial Signal Failure was SO timely- this is the stuff that sends firms to the briney deep. Here there be monsters, Mateys.

  7. It should be a historic week,supposed to see the bulk of "Winter group" bying,looks like we will pass 35 tommorow.

  8. First post here, been watching here for a couple months and waiting for these moments to unfold for weeks, no years, nay decades! Been holding physical since the 80s. I started buying after the Hunt collapse and been holding ever since. So I can truly say this looks like a once in a lifetime event.
    I try to read as many posts and links as I can and I must say it is hard to keep up.
    Thanks to all the posters for your insights and especially Thank YOU Turd for all you do.

  9. OK, so ZH has a decent point to make about silver actually already being at ALL TIME HIGHS, when priced in euros, but it only took 2 or 3 comments for it to sink into the muck.

    ZH is dead to me now. This is the last reference to ZH you'll ever see from me. It's not even on my bookmark list anymore.

  10. Jeez, imagine the margin calls this week on silver shorts. The horror. The horror.

  11. Turd,

    No such thing as a great president. They are all thugs who rule, rob and control their subjects. lincoln was the worst of the bunch. He was responsible for the death of over 600,000 americans. You should go here and do a little reading-
    The crap you learned from the statist indoctrination called public school was a pack of lies. Government is used as a tool by the few to rob the many.

  12. Good question, Dr.J.

    London is about to close and Sydney doesn't open for several hours. Silver will be traded on the Canadian exchanges. I guess we'll have to track the action there...

  13. Last year I got bumped off the Gold Eagle forum for talking about the subject matter of which this site is all about. It is such a pleasure to read everything that I already think and believe, and so much more. Finally, a home where I can speak my mind and above all learn from those who are on the same page as myself. Thanks again Mr. Turd for all you do and to your following, who are also as equally well informed as are you.

  14. Eric, I follow Tyler on twitter and find that far more useful than checking the ZH site itself regularly. He posts links to ZH in twitter so I just click on the ones I really want to look at from there.

  15. Turd,

    Appreciate your honesty in fixing your own whoops. PM market is global, that is why PM market exists - to monitor the world reserve fiat currencies from a few contrives, and that is why JPM gangs can't beat the PM investors world wide. I envied HongKong/EU traders this morning for joining the party one day earlier, sure we will jump in tomorrow, but the ticket fee is already $1/oz higher - some big money difference. Well, just don't miss the party.


  16. The US is open for electronic trading. Kitco is showing prices

  17. Trying to stop this is like throwing yourself under a runaway freight train. There's just no stopping it for a while, it has to slow down on its own.

    Somewhere out there are the heavy hitters, the billionaires, hedgefunds, waiting to make thier play.If the EE overcompensates now, they could be crushed under the train

    I think the effect is culmative ,the more it grows the more attention it brings.The more attention it gains the more it grows.

    I think a lot of people ""feel"" something in the air, something different I cant put my finger on it , but its there .

  18. Turd,
    Thanks for your assistance were right.. after refreshing (AGAIN!).. I am back on track with seeing the posting box.

    At any rate, having been unable to post since yesterday..but following all of the threads..I was dieing to chime in and thank TurdleGG for saying that he would (possibly) be posting some helpful forex trading tips today. I read your post Turdle, where you were having 2nd thoughts.. and I just wanted to ask you to please reconsider your reconsideration! :] I for one would appreciate any and all tips I can get at this point. The more I read and learn the more I understand the respect that you have to have for the market (and the market forces). I am a cautious and careful person by nature so if anything..I'm likely to be too restrained in my trading if I ever get to the point of actually trading. At this point I am just eager to learn all that I can. I hold no one responsible for my investing decisions but me. I truly would love to read any all tips though as it would only serve to help me to become a better trader.

    Sorry for the pressure and if you decide not to post anything..I totally respect that and will carry on with my 'learning' through all the venues I am currently working on.

    Turd, would you consider a post at some point to give us newbie-trader-wannabes some pointers on how you trade successfully? ....Yes, I understand that big $$$ is charged for such information. Maybe have a part of your new site dedicated to paying members who are willing to compensate you for your market skills/expertise in trading. ...What do you think ??

  19. New York Market

    Market hours (local time)
    8:20 AM - 1:30 PM.

    New York Futures Division gold futures and options are two ways of trading gold in New York. They provide an important alternative to traditional means of investing in gold such as bullion, coins, and mining stocks.


    Market hours (local time)
    2:00 PM - 8:00 AM Mon-Thu
    7:00 PM - 8:00 AM Sun.

    After-hours futures trading is conducted via the NYMEX ACCESS electronic trading system beginning at 2:00 PM on Mondays through Thursdays and concluding at 8:00 AM the following day. On Sunday, the electronic session begins at 7:00 PM. All times are New York time.


    Market hours (local time)
    8:30 AM - 4:00 PM, with Fixing at 10:30 AM and 3:00 PM.

    The metal prices fixed twice a day here, known as London Fixes, are the guidepost for the official gold trading around the world.


    Market hours (local time)
    8:00 AM - 5:00 PM.

    The core is the mutual settlement(gold pool) of the three biggest banks in Switzerland.

    Hong Kong

    Market hours (local time)
    8:30 AM - 12:30 PM
    2:30 PM - 5:30 PM.

    Hong Kong is center of gold trading in the Far East and the Southeastern Asia.


    Market hours (local time)
    9:00 AM - 3:00 PM.

    Australia's geographical location is a natural place to maintain the continuity of the spot gold market after New York traders go home and before the Asian traders wake up. Sydney opens up shortly after the NY market closes and overlaps the Hong Kong market.

  20. flaunt

    I know what you mean. I keep telling myself to just read the headlines and the one paragraph summaries and leave it at that. But sometimes I want to "read more" and invariably I let myself get sucked into looking at a few of the comments and that just brings me down. Don't need that in my life so I just gotta walk away.

  21. I still like ZH but you just can't read the comments section anymore. No matter the topic of the article, the comments always devolve into the same thing over and over

  22. Ron Paul has a money bomb going on right now for President 2012.
    Just thought I would mention it since he is the leading politician for gold/silver legalization. He is aware of the end of the keynesian economic system...
    A quote from the website describing him.

    Physician, author and statesman, Dr. Ron Paul (Republican of Texas) is the nation’s leading defender of free markets, limited government and strong families.

    Congressman Paul serves on the International Relations committee and is chairman of the Financial Services subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy. Ron Paul works in Congress to end out-of-control government spending, reduce taxes and to defend the Constitution.

    Dr. Paul is the New York Times best selling author of several books, including Challenge to Liberty; The Case for Gold; Freedom Under Siege; The Revolution: A Manifesto, A Foreign Policy of Freedom, End the Fed and the upcoming Liberty Defined (4/19/11). He has been a distinguished counselor to the Ludwig von Mises Institute and is widely quoted by scholars and writers in the fields of monetary policy, banking and economics.

    In 2008, he ran a campaign for the Republican nomination for President, attracting both national and worldwide attention in a race where he raised over $35 million dollars.

    Congressman Paul is the honorary chairman of Campaign for Liberty, a national grassroots organization dedicated to promoting and defending individual liberty, constitutional government, sound money, free markets, and a noninterventionist foreign policy.

    Ron Paul and his wife Carol, make their home in Lake Jackson, Texas. They are the parents of five children and the grandparents of 18. A former Air Force flight surgeon, Dr. Paul is a graduate of Gettysburg College and Duke University Medical School. In his career as an obstetrician, Dr. Paul has delivered more than 4,000 babies.

    Happy President's Day..
    Silver won't be this cheap for long...
    Scott J

  23. Canada TSX is closed today for "Family Day". I don't know how that affects PM trading.

  24. Actually seeing no signs of EE makes me kind of nervous. Don't really beleive they are cornered. I wonder what their next move will be - do not expect a pure market raid but rather an action with the support of politics and fed. What possibly could that be?

  25. Oh I agree, Eric. Every once in awhile I make the mistake of looking at the comments on ZH. Every once in a blue moon I feel the need to respond to one of the trolls. Always come away feeling I wasted a few minutes of my life.

  26. Found this little blip about SVM and SLW and yahoo finance:

  27. ZH bashers, recognize what a huge step forward in combatting MSM mis-info ZH provid(es)(ed). Anything that gets popular gets diluted, and frankly ZH has done a good job going on for so long providing lightning fast headlines. Sure some of it is sensationalized, but any reader with matter between the ears should look into things deeper themselves. ZH will hold a place in history for many people, and should be respected for that.

    How many of us would be here if not for ZH?

  28. Ginger

    Got another gold miner I'm kicking around in my head. Kirkland Lake Gold. Let me know what you think. It's about a $1B market cap so maybe bigger than you like.

  29. The dollar a day outcome puts us around 38.50 on the 28th. My target for profit booking is spot 37. Trendlines are being blown up fast here, my thinking is that OI will be our best indication of continuation of this rocketship ralley.

  30. I'm also a bit scared, nearwana, this vertical rise plus so much enthusiasm on metals related blogs and forums makes me wonder if we'll have a big correction soon.

  31. FUTF alert!

    Poor Ruprecht must be logging in from home

  32. I don't think anyone is bashing ZH, at least I'm not. I think Tyler is a machine and I still frequently visit the site. If anything we were bashing the posters at ZH. Bunch of arrogant shitheads and trolls. The average comment over there is about 2 words long and usually involves the word "bitchez."

  33. +1 Right Reason. Tom DiLorenzo wrote, The Real Lincoln: A New Look at Abraham Lincoln, His Agenda, and an Unnecessary War. I haven't read it but I heard a Lew Rockwell interview with him. The thing that stuck out was that Europe had slavery as well but the issue was resolved without a war that killed off a significant portion of the population. I don't remember all the points but basically Lincoln was not the guy you read about in your high school textbook.

  34. Taking out the stops... Again? I think someone told us this was going to be happening. Thus the recommendation not to set tight stops.

  35. Turd, you DID say the spot price of Gold will be $1,600/oz by Memorial Day, didn't you?

    Or did you mean to say Gas will be $5.00/gallon by Memorial Day?


  36. An FUBM is underway and restoring the new reality

    A few more shorts for JPM to cover!

  37. @flaunt

    absolutely, I agree most of the posters are either lemmings or trolls. It's a shame that they drown out some very, very intelligent posters/conversations over there.

    I just wanted to make the point that the site has done more to congregate and unite a base that never knew each other, as well as serve as a launching pad for Sir Turd of TurdAgistan.

  38. If WB is for real, then she said that her group would stand for delivery if the price was less than 37.50 before the March contract rolled over. Doesn't this also imply that traders should be exiting longs around $37? If WB group dumps all of those longs for cash, what would that do to the price?

  39. Back when silver was 20-25 (most of mine was bought at 18ish), I went ahead and bought more than I really needed, and told myself this portion was going to be sold for a quick buck if we (ever) saw 32. Looks like I'm going to have to make a decision this week on that.

  40. Here is a shout out to the EE, Blythe and Jamie.. Even the Rasta's are on to your game. time is geting short.

    Listen to the lyrics closely

  41. Eric,
    Kirkland looks (really) good at first glance. ..Producing and part of their properties include areas that were formerly gold producers. wow. Would love to buy a position. ...I think I may be the poorest poster on this site. LOL. ...You guys have thrown out so many good miners that I would love to be in. Kirkland going on my watchlist!! ....Someday.. ..when my ship comes in if some of my plays work for me.. I'll upgrade to the mid-tier producers!

    Meanwhile.. ..wave to me down here with the small caps and hoping to catch a ride up to see you soon. ;)

    PS...........Eric.. ...step awaaay from the SLW and do not liquidate your entire postion for new miners. ..This has been a public service announcement from your conscience. lol. :]

  42. RLP, if this is going to be another $1 up day, tomorrow's comex opening should be interesting to watch. Although I enjoy move's up and the pain to Blyth, I also am troubled by the polital / global implecations of all that is going on in the ME.

  43. Right Reason, and fellow Turdites,
    Please understand the power of a great speech. Disparaging the person who tells the truth does not negate the power of that truth. I might agree with you that Lincoln was a thug like the rest, but it has no bearing on the power of the Gettysburg address. The speech has gone far beyond him. A great speech is a prophecy. It points toward a better world and calls that world into being. When that world comes to pass, the speech loses it power and becomes a relic. Until then, it will continue to move, impress, call people toward that ideal. MLK’s “I have a Dream” still holds that power because racism is still an issue. MLK has his own skeletons in the closet, but the speech is still relevant.
    The power of the speech did not come from Lincoln, but from the “muse” that inspired him. Creative people (poets, musicians, writers, artists, orators) of all eras all report the same phenomenon—that their best work just “came” to them. I suspect our friend Afrum would concur. Those who take credit for creative genius to themselves cut off their ears, commit suicide, or have some other tragic end usually associated with substance abuse. Nobody can live up to the standard of “being” a genius (Genius comes from the term “genie”—or a spirit). We have genius. It’s not something that we are.
    The spirit of America (she is impressed on most of our silver coins) needed someone in 1865 to give voice to a full expression of the value of liberty—that liberty is worth dying for. Lincoln was there, he was listening, he got the message and said what needed to be said. For an even more powerful speech, read his 2nd Inaugural address. Please don’t disparage Lincoln and in the process try to tear down his best work. You don’t need to persuade this group that the world is run by hidden power structures. The names and people don’t matter as long as the structure is intact. Point out Lincoln’s personal faults or even his secret allegiances if you must, but beware of offending that creative spirit or you will suffer its wrath—like Socrates feared in “The Phaedrus,” who quickly made amends by giving us the most insightful description of the art of persuasion to date.
    Personal note: The creative spirit runs deep in my family. I inherited it from my dad (whose paintings are in the Met and Smithsonian). Poets, artists and musicians abound in my relatives. My own best ideas (published in academic journals and books by university presses) appear out of thin air, or during the process of writing as ideas simply occur when I type. 12 years ago in graduate school, I had stress related brain problems that would cause blackouts and migraines. I learned that during these week-long health battles that I did my best creative thinking and that I just needed to write myself through the pain. My doctorate is in the art of Rhetoric. My gift opened has doors throughout academia and I was privileged to study with some of the top persuasion theorists in the world who recognized that gift and wanted to nurture and steer it into maturity. I hope they succeeded.

  44. blister,

    My understanding is that they will not convert to cash rather roll. However if they do cash out I imagine it would cause a dip.

  45. soooooo tempted to increase my long here - greed taking over but still managing to cling on to some fear, the rise is relentless!

  46. Ain't it a shame that the miners are getting locked out of all this price action today. (rhetorical question) "/ ....Can you more seasoned ag/au people say whether this all bodes well for the miners tomorrow?.. .Or will today's actions not matter much if tomorrow morning brings a raid?

  47. Bovina Sancta!

    $34 about to go down.

  48. Just buy physical.

    I suspect every ounce on the planet will be hoarded in a week if this keeps up.

  49. We need to keep an eye on these Iranian warships and the U.S. response. Looks to me like a provocation may be in the works. If so, talk about SHTF...

  50. Blythe....Waiting for your dip tomorrow. Very tempting to buy right now, but watching on the sidelines right now until tomorrow.

  51. H8Fiat,

    My most favorite thing about investing in PM's is that PM's represent freedom as opposed to the tyranny we witness so often throughout the world. I have no ethical misgivings about PMs as I would if i were to invest in one of the tbtfs or if i were to short the ME.

  52. Ginger

    These markets are efficient enough that all the miners will fully reflect whatever is going on in real time when they open tomorrow. I was just wishing that Toronto was open so I could see my gains and start counting up my pot o' gold in my head.

  53. Scisco,

    Thanks for the clarification. I read through her yahoo comments and couldn't find anything about rolling those over. This is supposedly a hedge fund, so it doesn't seem likely (to me) that they will rollover without taking some profits.

  54. Please note Trader Dans comments on commercial signal failure. Its possible that some of the miners will be wiped out by this. Caution on the miners to all.... one needs to know if the specific miners were hedging, if so it could be really bad.

  55. Turd,
    Do you see a good play with Copper here? Has Silver broken the Copper shackles now too? Would you build a copper position from here? I'm still worried about a flush of silver here that could really hurt copper and the copper producers are getting there ass kicked lately.

  56. Good point Eric,

    Reminds me that i need to cancel some sell orders so i dont screw myself over.

  57. Carlos

    SHTF = Smelly Brown stuff hitting the rotating ventilation device

  58. Getting worried about where this is going...

    I put 25% of our intended buy into physical this morning at $33.50. (Looks like it might have been the right call.) Still waiting for a dip but this is for the long hold so whatever. If it hits $35 we'll put in another 25% and still hope for a dip. If it does not dip by March 2nd we're going all in.

    Does this seem like a reasonable plan?

  59. Paul Breed,

    Another good reason to play the etfs. Hopefully, not many have been putting on new hedges lately, this is a secular bull after all.

  60. Jesus, I've really missed the party here, except for my small physical position of course. Anyone like me and out of trading wondering where to get back in? Any advice appreciated!


    could JPM have offloaded some of the shorts to the Irish banks?

  62. Dr. Jerome, Wow, well said! Inspiring...reminds me to keep hope alive even though we may be living through interesting times, thanks.

  63. Badu,

    Be careful of chasing price. Look at trader dan's piece. There is a high probability of a large correction after these significant runups.

  64. PM Newbie here...Some of you smart folks have a lot of silver and keep buying it...If I may ask, how do you all store it? All those heavy bars. A safe?

  65. Paul, my understanding is that the hedging is mostly done by miners who produce silver as a by product. So those investing in miners who primary produce silver are probably ok. I haven't heard any mention of specific silver miners that are hedging. Of course one should check on whatever they own just to make sure.

    Also I asked Dan but haven't heard any suggestions about what would cause a commercial signal failure in silver or if it's ever happened before. Other than a panic out of the dollar I can't envision a scenario. But I'm sure there are cases I haven't thought of which is why I asked Dan.

  66. @Dr. Jerome...adding to the power of speech that you mentioned above.

    When Kennedy said in his 1961 inaugural speech, "ask not what your country can do for you --ask what you can do for your country." He was inspired by, or even a direct quotation of the famous and much esteemed writer and poet Khalil Gibran. Gibran in 1925 wrote in Arabic a line that has been translated as:

    "Are you a politician asking what your country can do for you or a zealous one asking what you can do for your country?
    If you are the first, then you are a parasite; if the second, then you are an oasis in a desert.

    However, this translation of Gibran is one that occurred over a decade after Kennedy's 1961 speech, appearing in A Third Treasury of Kahlil Gibran (1975) edited by Andrew Dib Sherfan, and the translator most likely drew upon Kennedy's famous words in expressing Gibran's prior ideas. A translation by Anthony R. Ferris in The Voice of the Master (1958) exists that could conceivably have been used as an inspiration, but it is less strikingly similar:

    Are you a politician who says to himself: "I will use my country for my own benefit"? If so, you are naught but a parasite living on the flesh of others. Or are you a devoted patriot, who whispers into the ear of his inner self: "I love to serve my country as a faithful servant." If so, you are an oasis in the desert, ready to quench the thirst of the wayfarer.

  67. Well so much for Blythe setting a defense line at $33.50!

  68. I was privileged to study under Ayn Rand and Nathaniel Brandon and took every course that the Nathaniel Brandon Institute offered at the time. The most important of which was a course on Objectivist epistemology, the second most important was a lecture series given by Alan Greenspan on economics. This was when I became a "Gold Bug". To this day the lessons learned from these intellectual giants are priceless and the wealth and health garnered from them cannot be measured. So powerful was this learning that I could not go into any institution of higher learning at the time because, in my view, they were intellectually bankrupt and studying under idiots would have been too painful to bear.

    To this day, I am so happy that I made that decision, and from that time onward it has been a lifelong process of deprogramming all that I had learned in high school and church. I therefore consider my self extremely fortunate psychologically and intellectually to have made that decision. To be intellectually rational, logical, and totally clear in ones thinking is the greatest of all assets one could possibly acquire. I would not trade this for all the gold and silver on earth. However, I was smart enough to accumulate sufficient to live happily ever after. Thank you Ayn Rand, Nathaniel Brandon, and Alan Greenspan, even if you Alan are a traitor to the cause your mentor espoused. :)

  69. Wow...this thing is going VERTICLE! Gadaffi's son went on TV and said the military will kill protestors, this morning Gadaffi is thought to have taken the red-eye to Malta. This shit is getting out of control! Oil is up $4 (2%).

    I don't think this is so much about busting the COMEX for silver anymore. Just look at gold, it is $5 from breaking $1400 !!

  70. Aurum,

    Have a blacksmith turn it into chainmail and it becomes more portalble.
    Or as w wise man once said, keep it secret, keep it safe.

  71. Amen, bobsmith! No pun intended :)

  72. Turd-

    Is this the bottom you were talking about??????????????

  73. Well said Doc Jerome but I must disagree. While the message of freedom I value greatly, it is the glorification of war that I detest. In the Gettysburg address, Lincoln's opinion of war are plain to see with statements of how noble it is to carry on (I am assuming the fight). The ends to not justify the means.

  74. Having said that, I would like Turd to know that he is blessed with a very rare epistemological gift, which is the ability to see the markets with a clarity and precision that is uncanny. You sir have mastered the ability to integrate and apply the principles of "cause and effect" to the understanding of the irrational markets. If you can apply that clarity and precision of thought to the problems you will encounter in the other areas of your life you will know a success that few others will attain. Keep up the good work my friend.

  75. Surfer, I agree that many of the things going on in the ME are driving price. Just look at oil. Much more than just the Comex is in play.

    That said, I'm glad to be on the right side of it so far.

  76. @flaunt, ohhh, silver hedging...that would affect the copper miners, no wonder there hurting! I don't own any but, taking this opportunity to do some research for a once in a lifetime buy opportunity in the future.

  77. Silver is going HOG-WILD!

    And a great big "F#$@ - YOU!" to our world leaders - all of them - parasites!

    ‎"Another fraudulent theory is politics. The Greeks had it right when they said he who does not want to serve should serve."

  78. Lincoln only cared about the 75-80% of all federal tax revenues(coming from the South)he was going to lose because of Southern secession. All European countries were able to get rid of slavery w/ no war. The EP speech was a propoganda measure aimed at keeping England and France from joining the Confederacy. Read Mencken and some of the others on this issue. Lincoln was a butcher.

  79. if we open up tomorrow with silver still up 5% will we see AGQ open up 7% or so do you think?

  80. At this point, would anyone be shocked if we hit 36.50 in the next few days? And if we did, you do realize that would represent a ten dollar rise in silver in just over three weeks, since Turd's bottom at 26.50? TEN FREAKING DOLLARS AN OUNCE? I'm speechless.

    A very helpful poster here put up a Spot silver to AGQ conversion chart last week (my sincere apologies- I cannot remember who did it). It was outstanding and I printed it... but it is now, sadly, obsolete as it only goes to 33. If that person is following this thread, any chance of putting out another one that goes up to 40? Or 50?

    We might just need it. Many, many thanks.

  81. There's been some interest in Forex trading. I think TurdleGG's cautions are very wise. However, I would like to suggest a simple strategy for those who are ready for something a little more aggressive than simply accumulating physical metal, that takes advantage of the benefits of the Forex market: liquidity, tight spreads with no commission, small minimum positions, 24 hour access, leverage, and a realistic, free practice environment.

    In my Oanda account I can trade XAU and XAG against USD and JPY. I use a little leverage (up to 2x). I don't set stops. I'm committed to holding long positions all the way to zero, because my account is funded with "extra" money (about 20-25% of my total capital). The rest of my capital is in physical metal. I never short.

    On the way up, I wind down XAG to 1x, then switch to XAU 2x and wind that down if need be, but never below 1x. On the way down, I reverse, building back up to 2x in XAG. When I'm fully leveraged in XAG, it's at a price that I feel very confident is not going to drop by 50%. At the recent Turd bottom, I was at 2x, so a further drop to about $14 would have cleaned out my account. I'll take those odds with a fifth of my capital.

    If you really believe in Silver and Gold, this strategy is a virtual cash machine. Whenever I get to 125% account balance, I withdraw 25% and buy physical with it. I've done well with this over the past two years even though my timing has been poor. I think it will do much better following Turd's intermediate term signals. I might be able to increase leverage to 3x with confidence.

    This is a modest step up from simple accumulation of physical PMs. It hardly deserves to be called trading since it relies so much on the fundamental strength of PMs. But it might be the thing for you if you're not ready for real trading, but want to accelerate your capital formation.

    Beware that there are counterparty risks. I've had good luck with Oanda for 5 years, but all bets are off as our financial system collapses. Don't put all your eggs in one basket.

  82. Turd,

    I calculate our SLV Mar 33 calls at 1.45.

    Good luck.

  83. I think the AGQ correlations were based on actual observations, so we might not have one past 33.

  84. Kitco shows 34 was broken a few minutes ago. 33.94 now...

  85. Lots of shit going on...

    US warships box in Iranian flotilla, delay Suez passage

    If Iran's ships go through, and the U.S. intercepts, holy shit.

  86. dallascfp

    Nice analysis of the origination of Kennedy's quote. You are a true scholar.

  87. Ginger

    far be if from me to tell you how to trade your miners, and if you've found your method that works for you by all means stick with it. But for me, if I see a stock where I like the prospects, and think it will participate along with metals prices in line with my expectations, then size of the company doesn't really matter. Even for small positions, it doesn't necessarily need to be a small company. If I want $1000 worth, it doesn't really matter to me if it's $1000 worth of Barrick or $1000 worth of Impact Silver. True, the really big ones might not have the volatility that you are looking for and that's fine. But if you rule out most of the mid-tier producers then you are ruling out a lot of super companies. They have production, which means cash flow, which means they are not constantly coming to market for more money and diluting your stock. Plus they typically have exploration and development stuff going on that puts the little guys to shame. They just don't always talk about it as much, because they aren't always coming to market to sell more shares. As I look down my list, if you toss out SLW as an outlier, all mine are in the range of $30 million to $3.6 billion of market cap, and I'm equally excited about the prospects of each and every one.

    Just some friendly food for thought :)

  88. At this point, all I can say is "wow".

  89. To my mind we are part of a revolution to take control of our own destiny via physical assets that cannot be manipulated by the current system.Gradually larger and larger amounts of people are buying physical metal for the long term as a store of wealth.Fantastic day for Gold and Silver,tommorrow will be an incredibly interesting day on markets throughout the world.We certainly are watching history here and I am glad I have physical.I enjoy Turd and his bloggs as I enjoy the stuff on ZH apart from the trolls.Never forget we are part of the Revolution taking place,people are awakening to physical unmanipulated wealth instead of being hamsters on the debt wheel.Time to reclaim the future.

    Silver - To infinity and beyond !!!!!!
    Buy Silver,take down a Bank its your patriotic duty !!!!!!!!!!!!!

  90. This is just chilling... The Libyan government actually ordered aircraft bombers to DROP BOMBS on protesters! The mercenaries did it and apparently killed hundreds. The Libyan pilots said FU and defected. This is why governments use mercenaries... Because they have no connections to the local population and are just working for a paycheck. Think it can't happen in the U.S.? I honestly never thought something so horrific could happen in even the most brutal regime on the planet and here it is happening.

  91. Until bloomberg, marketwatch or any MSM outlet, puts up any mention of Silvers relentless rise on their websites today, I think we'll be safe for a big tick up in the metals markets tomorrow.
    Yes, they mention gold/oil some but nothing on the stealth silvertrain.

  92. Citizen Doctor,
    I can't thank you enough. ..That's all I wanted/needed.. someone with some au/ag trading experience just to throw out there some nuggets of wisdom for us who want to learn. I am VERY cautious. I don't for a minute fancy myself someone who can take the trading world by storm. But I'm also a self-starter who has been in many corners and worked my way out by learning new things and adapting and eventually thriving. I want to learn this!... ..Which is a shock to me because until 2 weeks ago.. I wouldn't have thought I could. Then I asked myself.. Well, why COULDN'T I?

    The only downside at this point that I can see is that time is stacked against those of us who hope to trade and catch this train. It's moving fast! ..Still, I won't rush in just to make the fiats through trading. I'll work hard to learn (and learn fast!) ..and then if I catch that train.. I'll count myself blessed. If I miss the train I am still diversified in miners and physical. This is one other avenue that I just feel like I need to learn to be able better afford more physical if it works out for me.

    I will invest only what I can lose. ...Which won't be a whole heck of a lot at this point! :]

    Thanks again.. ..for taking time to respond! I'm sure there are others here who would love to see more posts such as yours. I'll count you among my mentors as I learn how to do this.

  93. I saw this from Aaron Krowne just now.

    by Aaron Krowne

    Nice try, CPM group.

    In their latest made-for-Kitco statements directed at debunking “silver market conspiracy theorists”, CPM group accidentally bolsters the case that a silver shortage is developing and is likely to spread to the entire market (and the prevailing silver price).

    In the remarks, CPM essentially admits there is shortage in investment silver products, but assures calm, because it hasn’t appeared in the industrial silver market. Investment demand, which is the sector from which the demand spike is originating, does not consume silver in “sponge” form.

    The fact that the shortage is manifesting mostly in investment-form silver, but not in industrial, is not at all surprising.

    Things may appear “calm” right now (and no one is disputing that there is no industrial shortage — yet). The real problem will be when new fabrication of investment silver does finally ramp up more, and starts rapidly stealing feedstock from the industrial segment. THEN it will start putting pressure on the industrial supply, hence creating price rises, in turn creating a feedback effect.

    (Hey, maybe it has already started, especially with today’s $31.80 closing price).

    So in fact, the condition described by the CPM group as occuring now is EXACTLY what you’d expect to see as a precursor to an all-out shortage. As a “silver conspiracy theorist”, I bid you thanks, CPM group!

    THIS is why everyone needs to go to ALL 6,000 coin shops in the US and CLEAR THEM OUT!! It's the only way to make this happen. Start pulling that industrial feedstock out of COMEX and elsewhere into the refiners to create more retail products and suck it through the entire distribution channel, all the way from COMEX, through the brokers to refiners on the way to distributors and onward to the coin shops for sale.

    Make the industrial users come to YOU for silver for the assembly line inputs, not COMEX. YOU!! What will help with this is Asia and elsewhere importing silver rather than exporting it. That will make the industrial users compete with international demand for silver.


  94. Wowsers…what a day!

    Does anyone know where I could find a good synopsis of the tax implications for buying, owning, and selling PMs? How will my bank report transactions above $10K? I’ve made a few small purchases (under $10K the last year and a half), but last week I convinced Mom to go in halves on a monster box (pulled the trigger ~$30.40, a few cents from the most recent BTFD…Thanks TURD!!). We split the cost and I sent in a personal check from each of us, so both were under the radar, I guess. I’m looking to pull together some funds for another box in a few weeks and want to know if I should expect anything different for purchasing with a personal check above $10K?

    Thank you everyone, this blog is amazingly informative and all the while entertaining. Others have said and I whole heartedly agree, there is such a good sense of community here. Makes me feel warm and fuzzy… watching each other’s backs, and genuinely caring for one another…I could only hope some of you are my neighbors too.

    Turd, you have put together something amazing, Thank You for sharing.

  95. WTI is upmore than 6% - Brent almost 3%
    Gold "only" 1 % and Silver 3%

    Stocks on the way down here in Europe.

    Anybody can remember such a day ??

    Smells a little bit like Lehmann

  96. Hundreds of thousands of rouble notes are being issued daily by our treasury. This is done, not in order to fill the coffers of the State with practically worthless paper, but with the deliberate intention of destroying the value of money as a means of payment. There is no justification for the existence of money in the Bolshevik state, where the necessities of life shall be paid for by work alone. Experience has taught us it is impossible to root out the evils of capitalism merely by confiscation and expropriation, for however ruthlessly such measures may be applied, astute speculators and obstinate survivors of the capitalist classes will always manage to evade them and continue to corrupt the life of the community. The simplest way to exterminate the very spirit of capitalism is therefore to flood the country with notes of a high face-value without financial guarantees of any sort. Already even a hundred-rouble note is almost worthless in Russia. Soon even the simplest peasant will realize that it is only a scrap of paper, not worth more than the rags from which it is manufactured. Men will cease to covet and hoard it so soon as they discover it will not buy anything, and the great illusion of the value and power of money, on which the capitalist state is based will have been definitely destroyed. This is the real reason why our presses are printing rouble bills day and night, without rest.

    ~ Vladimir Ilvich Ulianoff Lenin, ‘Interview’, Daily Chronicle (London) and New York Times, April 23, 1919.

    Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the capitalist system was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they can not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security, but at confidence in the existing distribution of wealth. Those to whom the system brings windfalls, beyond their deserts and even beyond their expectations or desires, become ‘profiteers’, who are the object of hatred by the bourgeoisie, whom the inflation has impoverished, not less than of the proletariat. As the inflation proceeds and the value of the currency fluctuates wildly from month to month, all permanent relations between debtors and creditors, which form the ultimate foundation of capitalism, become so utterly disordered as to be almost meaningless; and the process of wealth-getting degenerates into a gamble and a lottery. Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does so in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.

    ~ John Maynard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, London: Macmillan, 1919.

  97. Ginger,
    My wife and I love your blog as we prepare for whatever may come. And stocking food and other necessities will probably give us a 100% or higher return on the investment. since my own options trading have only broken even at best, I am in with both feet. Can you post your link again for others.

  98. Ginger has a blog?? Oh, yes link please!

  99. Dr. Jerome,
    I think you are talking about the poster on Turd's blog who has the Adventures In Self Reliance blog.. Is that correct? ...I went on this blog right after he/she posted about it in Turd's prep thread.. ..But that wasn't me! ..No worries.. I do think you are talking about Adventures In Self Reliance though... ..Is that correct?

    And I agree with you that it IS a terrific blog!....worth the read for all who care about getting prepared!

  100. Eric,
    In my 'real' life I am a former paralegal turned web store owner who sells dresses and related oh-so-chicy stuff. I am working on a dress related blog to compliment my store.. ..but, somehow I just don't think that's the kind of blog that interests you. :]

    However.. ..if Mrs. Eric ever needs a cutesy little black dress........ ...hmmmm...

  101. Tyler, Pining

    Here are the AGQ correlations I posted
    (Projections for unchartered water included. I did mark these prices by observation over time, not mathematical calculation, so the projections will be off slightly. The prices we have passed are solid enough for picking target prices):

    Spot / AGQ

    30.50 = 151.75
    31.00 = 156
    31.50 = 161.25
    32.00 = 167
    32.25 = 169
    32.50 = 172
    33.00 = 176
    33.50 = 180
    34.00 = 185
    34.50 = 190
    35.00 = 196

    If there was something else you were looking for please chime in and I'll post it. I have the 26.50 - 30 leg handy too

  102. Turd,

    After watching your latest video, all I can say to you is thanks for all you are doing.

    Like a volcano, this thing has finally erupted. Think Mount St Helens. The pent up forces for physical gold/silver are now being unleashed which is creating a huge problem for the cartel. It cannot, and will not, be stopped.

  103. Anybody else chewing their fingernails down waiting for tomorrow...?

  104. Has the market closed? Do you know when will it open again?

  105. IF this is a fractal of 2008's LBMA backwardation the current backwardation should last at least 7*** more trading days, AND silver price continue rising roughly another 7 days after that.

    *** Every day that the LBMA's backwardation goes more negative, adds a day to this number.

    I don't know what that means for price, but it gets us past Feb 28th!


    ps. I wish I did not have to sleep!

  106. Pick52

    Thanks for posting! It's a shame that AGQ isn't actually 2x. I supposed I would have to move over to options for that kind of leverage.

    We'll see how everything matches up tomorrow.

  107. Ginger,
    You an I are in the same boat. I purchased my physical in 2003 and went all in. I have been up all night reading and watching. I have been studying Wynter Benton and all that stuff, Along with all the work that Louis Cypher has done for us. THANK YOU LOUIS. I too am hoping to rude a options train to make a few wxtra FRN's to get me through so I don't have to sell physical, as my bussiness that I have owned in the Contruction trades is dead. New housing is NONE existent here. So any way. that is what I am doing. I got an education last night and this morning on what is going on behind the scenes. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds March 1st. STAND FOR DELIVERY WB.

  108. Kitco suddenly added "BUY" buttons to their quotes page. Wonder why they didn't try that years back...

  109. pick 52 and tyler, as miner stocks ramp up agq may well be more than 2X spot, lets see ! Careful on way down.

  110. Volume has dropped off completely now (1:39pm EST). It must be because comex is closed. I guess it will be rather quiet until 6pm EST when Sydney/Asia opens again.

    Good - I need to absorb this silver into my blood stream over the next couple hours. What a move in the past few days, eh?

  111. Yep TURD you are right.. that chick is hot. I had wet dream fantasies about here in my youth in the early 80's lol. Am I really getting that old?

  112. I'm really curious if miners will pick up the slack considering they may have been hedged.

  113. Ginger, I'm doing okay here. Just waiting to see Hong Kong open back up this evening and see if a repeat of this happens again overnight. I was NOT expecting a dollar-plus day on a holiday! But of course, if trading is thin, I would normally say that prices can swing wildly, but this is not a normal holiday incident, given the delivery situation at COMEX.


  114. Jesse has an update...took away all his silver targets....triple digits coming?

  115. Ginger,
    Yes that is the blog. thank you. My mistake.

  116. What a day. What can the EE do, if anything, to stop this? What tricks do they still have up their sleeves? What happens if the CME/COMEX decides not to let silver trade tomorrow? We need to put our collective heads together and wargame some of the more likely courses of action the EE might take and how we can counter them.

  117. No problem Tyler,

    The purpose of creating the chart was to follow along with Turd and use his spot price projections to pick the strike price I wanted to buy or sell at, since I do trade options only on AGQ, no shares.

    From this point upward, and for the sake of easy numbers, I'd use .35c as 1% of spot (obviously) and then do the correlated 2% AGQ price move as $175 a share x .02, or $3.50 in AGQ share

    Or, every $1 spot move from here should be $9-10 share move for AGQ. Again, ballpark forecasting. The higher we move, the more exponential the AGQ share price moves.

  118. flaunt,

    you ponder if "mercenaries" could be used "here" - they have been, at Katrina, and are currently under contract with the government, and are morphing into new "corporations" so as to be re-branded/named.
    I'm under no illusions that they are being utilised to infiltrate and undermine currently, and eventually will be keeping things "orderly" in the near future, sadly.
    It's all about trust now, deeper levels of who we know, and trust.

  119. Forgot something. ZH is the best! We would not be where we are today without Tyler and his crew. We owe that organization a debt of gratitude. Don't like the reader comments over there then don't read 'em.

  120. Basically, assuming that Ag stays about here until stocks open tomorrow, then any of your miners that don't show a proper "pop" should be looked at quite closely. Chances are there is something buried in the footnotes that you missed, or some inside info that you couldn't even know about. Hedging, or whatever. My inclination would be to sell first and analyze later. If you figure well ok, maybe it will catch up later, I think that is a road to misery.

  121. Pick 52- Sorry this is late, I had to step away for a bit and just saw your post. THANK YOU! Greatly appreciated, sir!

    If we can hold this, the open tomorrow will be something to behold...

  122. GJ,

    AGQ options have a harsh downside, no question. It helps to be DITM.

    Forgot to post this earlier, but was almost positive denizens of this site would enjoy it. Video of Dmitry Orlov discussing what he witnessed in Russia firsthand when it collapsed:

  123. got the Bangles out of my head with a little Blur. Song 2

  124. hey Turd, great work as always. I like the new movie, just one muse/ quasi complaint: why did you have to make the Blythe character so attractive? If she really was that hot, I would probably have a strong desire to give her all my money and silver in exchange for a 'private dance'. Thank god she's not that attractive in real life. I know its unlikely but i figure it couldn't hurt to ask, maybe you could have her do a little dance in the next one? Topless as a libertad would be pretty sweet too! I don't know, maybe its the big hoop earings and the low cut blouse. Am I the only one here?

  125. Double-cross twist your mind in a knot interview:




  126. @JP

    Truth is, we all owe a debt to the state of debate at ZH as well, because it spawned the Turd and drove many of this great community here!

  127. Got a question for the miner experts here. How come nobody ever mentions Hecla? Pure silver producer, low production cost. Am I missing something about them?

  128. I second JP and oldNavy.
    ZeroHedge is hands down, the greatest thing to hit financial "media" since the invention of the internet.
    God bless "Tyler", "Marla" and all the staff.

  129. This comment has been removed by the author.

  130. I am watching Net Dania spot silver live in the after hours. Notice that silver has dropped from 33.95 to 33.51. Who has the power to mess around when the markets are all closed and bop the price 44 cents down in one whack. It probably means nothing when they open again at 6 pm NY time. It just pisses me off that someone can do this. Also, who has the most accurate closing price? I use Net Dania because I don't have to refresh to get the latest price. Thanks to all.

  131. One observation I thought I'd put out there about the "WB group" I noticed the last part of the last message is this quote; "At last we will reveal ourselves to The Morgue. At last we shall have revenge."--The Leader

    I don't know if anyone else noticed, because you would have to be a major star wars nerd for the red flag to raise, but this is taken right out of episode one (the worst one) That makes me think this person is not a female. The only woman I know of to ever quote star wars is Tina Fey, and she is a rare breed indeed. That makes me think "The Leader" is a dude. Right? Sure some of the ladies like star wars, but not on that level.

    As of this moment, kitco has silver pretty steady at $33.91. No longer really going up or down, I wonder whats going on. I think 33.50 is now a major support level! Wonderful.

  132. Turd:
    OK I hope this doesn't come off as too dumb, but with globex not open now I am watching Forex charts .Kitco spot is 33.91 Forex is 33.95 .My online metals dealer is showing 33.91.The market will open at 6:00 eastern.Would this be a time to add physical before it opens again?

  133. Citizen Doctor and Ginger,

    The strategy outlined by Citizen Doctor is almost exactly the one a group of friends and I came up with when we did a game theoretical analysis of trading silver on the forex spot market. The key is using enough downside buffer so you don't have to use a stop loss. This strategy uses the forex holdings to simulate a physical position with the added benefit of small leverage. We ran many scenarios and it beat all of our other trading strategies by an average of 3-to-1.

  134. oldNavy

    I own Hecla, FWIW. Was just looking HL and CDE last night just to review, and make sure I didn't just buy them on the basis of old time reputation. I like them just fine right here and now.

  135. @reefman I'm worried about my junior miners after listing to that. I've been on the road to roota site before and it's very interesting. Guess I'll be stocking up on some more physical when I get the money!

  136. Thanks, Eric. I was just surprised they never came up in any of the discussion of miners. Do you know if they will be impacted by the new 5% royalty for production on public lands?

  137. @gratis

    Really? Im no Tina Fey, but youll find me expounding on a whole array of topics troglidytes like you would consider outside the purview of "the fairer sex". Please join us in the 21st century.

    I am really loathe to bring any grousing to this idyllic little corner of the internet, but some of you guys really have to evaluate your assumptions about women.

  138. 100 oz bars were at 840 yesterday at APMEX. 593 left in inventory now.

    Draw your own conclusions.

  139. oldNavy

    Sorry, no idea on the 5% royalty thing.

  140. As we are steadily approaching the March delivery date (climax) this week I wonder how many of you are expecting a sell-off right after or just before this date? To be honest to me it feels a bit like a potential buy-the-rumour-sell-the-news cliché.
    Based on the fundamentals alone I can't wait for the next (potentially huge) dip to buy more of the physical.

    It's awesome to see silver screaming away from it's previous lows but I would think twice before buying the effin spike! Nothing (unless you check the Bangles) goes up in a straight line!

  141. Eric,
    Might I just say that your advice on how to evaluate the miners tomorrow is a very good word. I hadn't looked at it that way but I will be scrutinizing them now with a critical eye after the opening bell in light of this price pop we are experiencing today. ..As always, thank you.

    Move over in that boat..because you described my motivations to a tee. I wish us luck in learning and learning fast! If you come up with any a-ha moments you'd like to share in your journey..please speak up. I will do the same. I always learn from everybody's questions here as well. So, I'm hoping that others will ask questions (and not just me) so I don't get annoying. :]

    Thank you Art Vandelay ..I am reading and re-reading your post (and Citizen Doctor's) to try to let it sink in.

  142. My coin shop is open today & is supposed to be getting some 100z bars this afternoon from a customer who is selling off... I'm ready. The silver train is leaving the station but there is still time to put more freight on it. I'm sure the price will dip again but I'm buying now, it could be a couple of weeks before silver gives up some gains & even then it might not make it back down to $32.

  143. 6a1dbcdc-3c89-11e0-b484-000bcdcb8a73,
    I think that is what I find so amazing.... that it's a HOLIDAY! ..and we are seeing this kind of price action. Very surreal to me.

    I have no fingernails left. :D

  144. on King World News today, Hathaway makes a distinction about the paper versus physical market. Are CEF, PHYS , PSLV considered paper or physical?


  145. @Letey Petey ~

    just wanted to add support to your words - as a reminder to some guys here that not everyone is male, and not everyone wants to read sexualised commentary. . .

    as "Tyler" said here "Stay focused."

  146. I'm starting to see some politics etc in the comments. Could you people please not turn this space into what Zero Hedge has become? Save your politics for a more appropriate forum.

  147. Lord Koos: I allow a little, so long as its in the context of the overall PM discussion. What I will not allow, however, is for the comments to degenerate into the catfights that plague ZH.

  148. @ california womanl

    Unless you own the actual metal, it's all paper. With these other vehicles, you own paper shares backed by metal. Personally I feel much better having my money where I can control what happens to it.

  149. Ginger said:

    Turd, would you consider a post at some point to give us newbie-trader-wannabes some pointers on how you trade successfully? ....Yes, I understand that big $$$ is charged for such information. Maybe have a part of your new site dedicated to paying members who are willing to compensate you for your market skills/expertise in trading. ...What do you think ??

    This is certainly an issue that only TF can make...I for one believe it would change the entire vibe of this site and possibly create issues and an environment where TF is put on the spot in so many ways that the expectations could get out of hand...particularly if the market didn't move within the parameters of his advice...IMO

  150. Ginger, let me give you an example of the strategy I use. Now it is slightly different than Citizen Doctor's, but they both work on the same principles.

    Back on the channel breakout of $28, I opened an account and put in $5000 (I did this because the forex site I use has a minimum 500 oz lot size). With the smallest lot size, 500 oz. I wait. If it goes up by $200 or $300 bucks I close the position and lock in the profits at the cost of the spread on reopening another position. If it goes down, I ride it out because I can go down $10 in the price of silver before I lose everything. So that's the simple version of it. Take profits as it goes up, and ride it out as it goes down. The big risk is if it goes down that $10, you lose everything, but that's only in a 2008 black swan event, and if you see one setting in, you can always add more cash to increase the downside buffer if you have it available.

  151. gniuz said...
    "As we are steadily approaching the March delivery date (climax) this week I wonder how many of you are expecting a sell-off right after or just before this date? To be honest to me it feels a bit like a potential buy-the-rumour-sell-the-news cliché."

    I have some ITM Mar SI calls, and the answer to this question is all that is occupying my mind right now. I too would love to hear others' thoughts on this....

    BTW, my security word was "shess", not to be confused with "stress".

  152. ZH is THE main vein for all things financial. Having said that I would request that they either moderate or enforce position limits on comments. In other words one or two posts per article. If you can't get a point across in one or two posts then too bad. Adding a moderator to filter out the gibberish would also help.
    Banning a few people would also help.

  153. timpa,
    point well taken. I sure don't want to change the flavor of the site. Just trying to glean information from those willing to share it. TF already gives out good info for the more advanced among us (ie: charts and TA) that if you're savvy enough to understand can make $ from what he's putting out there. I only wanted some more basic, say-it-to-me-real-slow tips for those of us not so savvy. But I'm sure it's not TF's intention for this to be a blog about teaching you how to trade. I do get that. And that's fine of course.. as he's his blog!!

    Others are chiming in to give some pointers and I appreciate them all.

  154. I second the support, SilverAura, as another woman here.


  155. Art,
    Your advice is worth as much as my silver stash! ..Seriously, I can't thank you enough for the help. Your strategies sound practical and doable for me.

    Have opened up my trading account and playing around with the demo/practice thing. I will do that for a while before I get into anything 'real'.

    Truly, truly appreciate the feedback.

  156. Geez, Oil is blowing up today as well. Does anyone know how to trade Brent as opposed to WTI crude? I think my options are limited to WTI for now but that $17 spread is absurd.

    Amateur comment here, but why doesn't some big time investor just do some arbitrage on this, buying WTI @$91 and exporting it at $108?

  157. I see 4th of July fireworks, Mardi Gras celebration and New Year party, all happening at the same time when we wake up tomorrow morning.

  158. @ Persona Gratis

    "Wynter Benton" has been speculated to be Bill Winter, former head investment banker of JP Morgan who apparently had a falling out with CEO Jamie Dimon after commenting about "greed". He fits the profile... disgruntled/powerful former JPM guy who has started his own fund in partnership with Jacob Rothschild(!) and others. See here for some background: and latest news:

    and here for more recent news.

    Supposedly he led some commodities traders to defect from JPM and join him in taking down Blythe/JPM. Sounds crazy but it appears to be true from the way events are unfolding. He seems to be winning his bet that he can find investment capital faster than Blythe can find silver.

  159. syk, I would look into the supply/demand dynamics that could explain the massive spread between brent and wti before plunking down money. WTI was up to 98 last I heard, but I don't see it reflected on Kitco's site.

  160. April WTI Brent spread collapses from $20 to $10 in two days.

  161. @ Syk, WTI is @ $98. WTI has always traded at a premium to Brent but since last year it has been trading at a discount mainly due to rising inventory levels at Cushing OK.

  162. So which exchanges were actually open today? Looks like the trading floors in Chicago and NY were definitely closed. Harvey says the London closing price was 34 dollars.

  163. @gniuz, Letey Petey, same here. Been giving this a ton of thought.

    I think we can all assume that Blythe will WANT to hammer prices down next week. I think we can also assume that the "Stand for Delivery" buying pressure will reach its peak this week.

    The main number I'm looking at next week as I decide whether to go short SLV/AGQ will be contracts standing for delivery. 10K is a decent benchmark -- well below that and I think it's a good bet that Blythe will slither away and start attacking again starting next week.

    10K to 20K and Blythe has some serious problems on her hands. I'm not sure what will happen, but it would take some serious courage to go short.

    Above 20K, and I think all Hell is going to break loose, potentially up to and including a formal default on the COMEX.

    That's obviously just one variable out of many, but it's a critical one.

  164. As we all patiently await 6:00 pm EST, I have a new thread for you.

  165. Eric,
    Funny how you and I think alike. I have a bunch of HL Jan 2010 12.50 calls. Also bought some more SLW calls on Friday. Should be a nice day tomorrow. (Never know, though.)

    On the world front, rumors were flying today that Qaddafi was heading for refuge in Venezuela. Chavez and he are old buddies. Imagine the implications. (Yes, it's being denied.) Autocrat in huge oil-producing country, now known world-wide for strafing his own people from jets, hides out under the skirts of another megalomaniac, also from a huge oil-producing country, BUT this country is on another continent! This could be like smallpox coming over to the New World on the Spanish galleons. The revolts are sweeping across the middle east and Africa. Could they be exported to the western hemisphere? Chavez would not exactly endear himself to third-worlders, first-worlders, any-worlders if he protected Qaddafi. Doesn't this smell like the revolutions against monarchies that spread throughout Europe after the American colonies successfully threw out the British?

  166. Watching oil prices skyrocket would be EXTREMELY troubling actually. I truly believe $150+ oil would threaten our very existence--and I don't think I'm exaggerating here.

    Each individual would feel the full impact of high oil prices. It would be the start of James Howard Kunstler's "Long Emergency." And if you've read any peak oil articles, or watched Michael Ruppert's "Collapse," you will know how dire our situation will get.

    I'm sure it's easy to get carried away in the heat of the silver rally, but an oil rally is nothing to celebrate in my humble opinion. Seeing a 6% jump in crude in 1 day absolutely scares the Turd out of me. Sadly, this is probably the start of a major and likely permanent rise in oil prices--and the beginning of something very few people are really prepared for... including PM bugs.

  167. @flaunt, dallas

    Thanks for the info. Bloomberg has it at $91.42 for some reason. Yeah, I read an article about how the spread was due to inability to get WTI to market and influx of tar sand oil from Canada.

    I honestly had fantasies of taking physical delivery and loading them onto a truck/train bound for SF or Seattle. Nuts I'm sure.

  168. haha funny syk because I briefly had the same thought. There must be a reason why someone with the logistics to pull that off hasn't done it.

  169. It’s fitting if not ironic that Wisconsin, the birthplace of the public employee union will become its burial ground as well. Maybe we should call what is unfolding there the “Nightshade Revolution,” as they seem to be poisoning themselves by the consumption of the fruits of their own corruption.

    So then I have a few questions for our liberal and union friends that are in need of answers.

    1. How is it not corrupt, if not morally incestuous, for public employee unions to use the state forcefully expropriate dues from its compulsory members and then use those dues to elect the very politicians with whom they negotiate their contracts?

    2. Is it simply beyond the intellectual capabilities of the left to see the hypocrisy of chanting for freedom and democracy while attempting to block a vote by duly elected representatives? Or that Democrat State Senators have fled from the democratic process because they know they will lose that vote?

    3. Are these same Democrats that so loudly protested Republican efforts to use the established rules of the US Senate to block President Obama’s Agenda now celebrating an abrogation of the rules of the Wisconsin Senate?

    4. When President Obama said “Elections have consequences,” and “We won,” did he mean that they only have consequences for their opponents and his friends in organized labor should be exempt from the consequences of elections or their own corruption?

    I for one welcome the public employee unions taking the hard line in Wisconsin. The sooner they self expose their attitude that the State’s purpose is to serve their employees and line the coffers of the unions, over and above the needs and concerns of the public they are supposed to be serving, the sooner this monster can be slain and shoved into the grave of history it so justly deserves. That the union bosses would sooner risk the jobs of their members rather than their corrupt power structure should be telling to anyone who takes the time to do any critical thinking about what is going on here, as to just who they are really looking out for.

  170. @Syk

    I think we'll see $150, or close to it, oil this year. Hope you're wrong about the consequences...

  171. Syk-
    The action for us in the event of $120+ Brent Oil is to install 4 KWHr of solar PV power.
    I have done the spreadsheets in great detail and know that for our home, we need 4 KWHr to offset our daily commute in one car.

    Here's the basic math.

    If the car has 20 KWHr of on-board electrical battery capacity and has a 40 mile drive on one charge (see the Nissan Leaf), your family needs to generate 4 KW/Hr average and across 5 hours of charge time. This generation offsets the 20 KWHr of power used by the car. The equations do not make sense at this time because the gas is far cheaper.

    Having said this, T. Boone Pickens analysis on wind and Nat Gas is really the correct play for our country (USA). Nat Gas is much cheaper and a better/more portable power source than batteries. But, no one in the Obama-Chu-Energy department seem to be listening to the man.

    At any rate, the 4KW/Hr install is a good call because the average home usually consumes around 20 KWHr of power per month easily. That totals around 600 KWHr per month (OKAY everyone break out your electrical power bills and tell me you're not below 600 KWHr per month in KWHrs burned).

    Okay? back to the precious metals action now that I've negated the need to suck up to big oil and don't give a heckuva lot about the ME issues.

  172. As per this 4min Youtube Video interview with Max Keiser posted Feb 10,2011, Andrew Mcguire is about to make another announcement..."...that will put people [JP Morgan?] in jail". -Max Keiser

    The announcement was supposed to be made 2 weeks from Feb 10th. So that's roughly around Feb 24th.

    Anybody have any more insight as to what this may be about, and specifically the impact?