Tuesday, February 22, 2011

The Moment of Truth

(obligatory)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MqZQsv1QPA4

Well, no one should have been surprised by the action overnight. No one should be frightened by it, either.
Blythe gave it everything she had and silver still stands at $33.20 as I type. Let me type that again for effect...silver still stands at THIRTY THREE DOLLARS AND TWENTY CENTS.

Do not let the trolls and AGAs fool you. Last night's action was pure, unadulterated capping and manipulation of the part of the EE. Our friends at silvergoldsilver even reported that Blythe herself was in the office last night, directing the onslaught. If true, its shows you just how desperate they really are.
Take a moment to study this 5-minute chart of the overnight action:
Remember, you can always differentiate an EE attack from "regular" selling by the timing of the event. Blythe needs to get maximum effect from her actions so her strategy is often to "pile on". She waits. She watches. Then, as she sees price rolling over she steps on the accelerator, hoping that her new shorts create and even greater level of momentum to the downside, perhaps even starting a "cascade effect" of stop orders and fresh shorts. So far, it hasn't worked! Look closely, when EE selling abates, price rebounds every time. Buyers are there, hitting Blythe's bids. When Blythe relents, price rebounds. This is the essence of the FUBM formation.

So what happens next? Well, that's the $100,000,000,000 question. If the BoS are going to stand for delivery this month and if the WB story is to be believed, we're going to start finding out today. If price continues to rebound, and we head back toward $34, Blythe should begin to panic. Seriously. She created enough new shorts to take almost two dollars and sixty cents out of the price of silver overnight. If she fails to "shake the tree" today....well, lets just say that she and Ruprecht had better have their bags packed and the cab waiting.

I'm headed out shortly to meet with my web designer to begin planning our new playground. The fact that I'm leaving should give you some indication of just how concerned I am at this point regarding Blythe's long-term impact on silver price. Regardless, its going to be a crazy day and a wild week. Keep the belts buckled and your trays in the upright and locked position.

Much more later. TF

145 comments:

  1. Thanks again Turd! I hope you don't miss too much of the hot action today!

    Hard to keep my head focused on work at the moment..

    Fractal analysis suggests silver to reach $52 - $56 by May - June and gold could reach $1860, and the HUI at 900

    http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page32?oid=121208&sn=Detail&pid=102055

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  2. Turd,
    Please go take a look at the daily paul.
    www.dailypaul.com Notice how easy it is to post and ask questions etc. That is the easiest website to follow of all the ones I visit.

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  3. Italian stockmarket closed this AM. Too many Libyians wanting to sell and probably get PMs.

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  4. the tickchart in BBG is jumping like a bull in a rodeo...crazy show... the fight may be starting right now

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  5. Am I reading this correctly? March Silver Open Interest decreased by only 35 contracts on Friday? Blythe will be looking for a new employer soon if that situation persists for a couple more days.

    http://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/Section62_Metals_Futures_Products_2011034.pdf

    Let's see if the final report confirms the figures.

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  6. New to Turdville,

    33.3 is symbolic to those demagogic secret hand-shakers around the world. Jus sayin..

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  7. awesome.

    I keep polling fridays OI at http://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/Section62_Metals_Futures_Products_2011034.pdf

    ...but it's still preliminary

    sort of stinks...

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  8. Looks like silver miners taking off as expected...
    GGCRF looks ready to breakout to me...

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  9. My miners up over 6% out of the gate. Just wow.

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  10. @ Ginger

    My watchlist is littered with silver miners over 4% returns already....

    -
    Funny times...
    -
    How high we will go? 1.12 is Silvermex's 52 week high. Once we pass that with these levels of silver, who knows...
    --
    P.S. Thank you ginger for canadian zinc advertisement, looks like I got in just in time!
    -
    Scott

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  11. It's great to see the smiles wiped off the faces of those stooges on CNBS as oil prices tick higher!!

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  12. ScottJ88,
    Such volatility.. I know anything can happen today (and probably will) ..but in the face of an EE attack.. these gains are pretty impressive!

    Yes.. CZN..SLX.. two of my favorites. ..Do you hold Rivett as well?

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  13. She's like Hitler in the Bunker.

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  14. Wow - anyone paying attention to PSLV?? It's up 5.49% from last close, compared to 4.88 for AGQ.

    Think some big money knows somethin'?

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  15. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  16. question to all re: the miners,

    a very astute commenter over the weekend posited that any mining stocks NOT leaping up today might have questions about them re: hedging

    Check my miners this morning:

    As expected, SLW, PAAS, HL, CDE are stars.

    GPL also looked solid -- 6.19%

    Endeavor -- EXK -- "only 3.42%

    SVM -- "only" 2.37%

    But the REAL shocker was TRE, Santa's baby, actually DOWN at the open although now very slightly up ie 0.5%

    Anyone want to offer some insights into that??

    I had/have high hopes for TRE.

    Is there something I missed??

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  17. She'll run out of gas sooner or later. Dun worry. BTFD. :)

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  18. TRE -- wasn't there something out last week about some shorts trying to scrounge up some stock?

    I'm sticking with Santa. I'm sticking with TRE

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  19. TRE- nothing will pop until something definitive comes out today from the meeting.

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  20. its becoming increasingly clear that EVERY dip is being bought - even blythe cant have much more left...

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  21. It appears that the tie between Mr. Winters and the aristocracy of the UK is clear. In fact, he is surrounded by a who's-who of characters, including Princess Diana's family (Spencer), Lord Rothschild, and others. It's a "don't FU with us" crowd.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/977c9fce-3aed-11e0-8d81-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1EhTfGZPb


    Former JPMorgan Chase executive Bill Winters, who has set up his new fund management venture Renshaw Bay, has not had to look hard for new premises.

    Backed by family funds of Lord Rothschild and South African luxury goods tycoon Johann Rupert of Richemont, Mr Winters is now ensconced in one of Lord Rothschild’s many buildings in St James’s Place, which also houses the office of former business minister Lady Vadera, who has launched her own advisory firm.

    If Mr Winters needs advice from Lord Rothschild, he is based in another building on the same street.

    RIT also holds the leasehold for and is based at Spencer House, the Earl of Spencer’s former residence in St James’s Place. Mr Winters has been appointed a director of RIT so will not have to travel far for board meetings.

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  22. CNBS just mentioned the backward Asian and touted $50 silver.

    Am I in an alternate universe?

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  23. Cris - my thoughts on TRE. The shorting is still going on. Traders are waiting to be wowed or disappointed at the annual meeting that just started five minutes ago. TRE is an amazing company that is just "starting to do what it's purpose is." Speaker just said that. He's talking about share price right now.

    "one fund is long 9 million shares and one fund is 7 million shares short, I'll let you decide which one is on the right side"... some slight paraphrasing.

    Go and listen while you watch the rest of the day. Very positive!

    http://event.on24.com/eventRegistration/EventLobbyServlet?target=lobby.jsp&eventid=279412&sessionid=1&key=CCFE6094D9AC2C805D7CC8522B7BAEB3&eventuserid=46131558

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  24. @ Ginger

    Yes I own Revett Minerals, and quite a large portion of my portfolio too. Silver miners are outdoing gold miners, and I would expect that to continue with great certainty in the near future. Also, with this particular stock, how can you go wrong with its production from the Troy Mine currently, with the upside of Rock Creek mine, which has the mother load of silver deposits. It has been in "battle" for years over this mine, as it is in a national park. However, it seems they are making good progress on it, and once the mine gets news of passing, the value will be added to this stock in my opinion.

    Also, Revett seems to be lacking from the amount of volume lately (at least RVMID), where I look for an AMEX listing for Revett soon enough, which should really help get the ball rolling. The share structure on Revett is fantastic, as I was in before they did the 5:1 consolidation to make their stock look more appealing for larger investors. They have had their ups and downs, but bottom line if you are a producer with speculative resources in the silver industry with good management + a good plan...

    Here is an article about Revett on the Amex soon and this authors market valuation of Revett...

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/246368-revett-minerals-seeks-amex-listing-multiple-catalysts-should-revalue-shares-high

    Everyone is gonna be a winner with a little due diligence...
    -
    http://thehardrightedge.com/my-investment-journal/

    You will see if you look at my portfolio, I am HEAVILY leveraged in silver miners, as they are the ones that are going to be returning the sick profits. Also have some speculative gold plays :)
    -
    Look at the volume on GGCRF!! Go baby go!

    Scott J

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  25. Jedi, I would love to believe that. But here is a thought experiment. If true, JPM must know this, and if so they know the jig is up. Rothschild s alone have more money than god. Why throw any more monmey down a rathole, when you are up against not just a bigger opponent, but all the fundamentals? PM's are going to go up, period. Fiats are dying, period.

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  26. Cris

    That was my comment. I'm not that astute. Just doing the best I can like everybody else, and trying to share as best I can.

    My concerns about hedging showing up as weakness applies more toward the producers. No reason to hedge if you are not producing at all.

    I'm noticing on my list that the liquid traders are doing much better than the thin traders. Check the volume on TRE. I don't really follow it, but it's not a producer is it? Then I don't see them having a hedging problem. Something else going on maybe. The smaller and thinner trading the stock is, then the more that almost anything can happen on any given day. Daily correlation with the bigs, the SLW's of the world can be pretty poor. In either direction.

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  27. Ladies and gentlemen, please hold on tight.

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  28. Scott,
    Thank you for the confirmation about what I was thinking about Rivett. I got in too before the 5:1. I just didn't get in deeply enough!! ..But it is looking great today right along with GPL, SLX, CZN, and many others.

    I'm gonna go back and take a look at your portfolio again. You have impeccable miner taste. :]

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  29. TRE is a favourite of the Toronto short miners hedgie community.

    Needless to say, problems with advanced terminal egotism also flourish up north.

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  30. Eric,
    I too remembered your advice on weeding out the miners today according to performance. I'm watching mine with a very critical eye today. ...There are a few that I have though that really aren't producing yet..or as close as some others.. and so they will not get much of a pop but I have hopes according to my DD that they will come online soon enough.

    Your advice is making me analyze everything though and think through it all with a goal/clearer thought process.

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  31. I mentioned GORO in the last post but it may have gotten lost in the shuffle. It's up 8% on some assay news that, in my opinion, will eventually turn into a much bigger move once the general market gets hold of how important it is.

    Just to tease you, it was an 11m averaged intercept with 37g/t Au and 2,700(70oz)g/t Ag + base metals. This is just the top of a epithermal vein that likely gets richer with depth.

    The company will be paying a dividend that trumps all other mining companies. It's a very solid company. Do your own DD!

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  32. Scott, Ginger other small scale mining investors...

    What a start to the day! SilverMex up 10%, Great Panther up 7%, First Majestic up 5%, others following suit.

    Again I want to bring up Aurcana Silver. AUNFF. They are up 12% right now. Here's a link to the recent announcement of the Shafter Silver mine in Texas. Aurcana has made major moves in the last few months to set themselves up for mining silver from Shafter in 2011. Do your research but I'm looking for feedback on why this company is not an "undiscovered" Great Panther or why it's not a soon to be First Majestic.

    Thoughts?

    Now up 14% as I typed this

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  33. Is gold and silver looking really weak or is it just my imagination?

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  34. Link to Aurcana article:

    http://www.marfapublicradio.org/2011/02/shafter-mine-reopens/

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  35. glad I didn't buy at $33.00 this trip down.

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  36. if Wynter Benton is Bill Winters, then this is an incredibly scary thing we are facing here.

    Rothschild and JP Morgan against one another? It been rumored for decades that the original Julius Morgan was an agent of the Rothschild family.

    This makes me very nervous. either TPTB are officially killing one of their own, to facilitate a crash, cut out some of the lesser elite...

    or we are be played.


    I would have feel much better if wynter benton had chinese money backing them, sad to say.

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  37. Revett is 20% hedged. I'm thinking about exiting.

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  38. How can you win if you're on the same side as Rothschild?

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  39. @ waffen
    I would say there is more chance of the chinese taking the other side. Higher prices means they get less physical when they recycle their FRNs.

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  40. FISD, thanks for a report from the front. I appreciate the link.

    Eric, you are QUITE astute. I have enjoyed your comments from the beginning.

    Regarding today's price action, and regarding "JPM vs the Rothschilds", well we never thought it was going to be easy right?

    But while JPM has to recognize its hand is weakening, it still has to fight tooth and nail. You what comes to my mind as a boxing fan -- The Thrilla in Manilla.

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  41. TRE annual meeting:

    Jim Sinclair just transferred his chairmanship to his right hand man/study of 18 years saying and I paraphrase,

    "I want you to know that it's not the jockey that matters anymore, it's the horse that matters now and your new chairman will get the horse in the race".

    Very good transition for TRE in my opinion. Very humble man transferring the reins, very humble man accepting them.

    I'm glad to have a position in the company!

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  42. Always good to keep perspective. Here's a good read from a ZH link to Oaktree Capital.
    http://www.oaktreecapital.com/MemoTree/Open%20and%20Shut%2012_01_10.pdf
    Eyes Wide Open.

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  43. It wouldn't surprise me if it was BM, JPM and the Bernank's electronic printing press Vs. Old money Europe and the Chinese.

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  44. Hey does anybody have an opinon on the "Midas Letter"? It's a $49/mo letter that recommends Jr miners. They boast phenomenal returns, but I can't seem to find a 3rd party site comprehensive review based on somebody who watched their recommendations in the trading market. It's fine to boast 500%+ gains, but what % of their recommendations were also losers?

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  45. My miners list is running anywhere from dead flat to up 8%, average closer to 3%. But then, I have a few relatively stodgy mid cap gold producers in the list, more than maybe you guys do.

    But don't get too cocky. Blythe could take it all away by days end.

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  46. The more she shorts...the more they trap themselves.

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  47. I'm looking for a professional website that recommends miners so I can build up that part of my portfolio. I don't mind paying a monthly subscription fee and reading 20 page long reports, but I need *expert analysis* with *proven success*. I don't have time for the learning curve to read up on how to successfuly pick a miner, I just want to read recommendations and why they are recommended. I know miners can be "a mine field"; hence the need to follow proven track records from real experts.

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  48. For your amusement... been playing around with BM's name, some funny anagrams:

    - ASS THY TREMBLE
    - BAH, MY TRESTLES
    - SHY BALM TESTER
    - BASH MY LETTERS
    - TRY BALM SHEETS
    - SHY BELT MASTER
    - SMEARS THY BELT
    - BERTH MY TASSEL
    - BEST MET RASHLY
    - BLASTS MY ETHER
    - MY HERBAL TESTS
    - MY SALT SHERBET
    - MY LATEST HERBS
    - THATS MY REBELS
    - BYE, SMELT TRASH
    - BELTS ARSE MYTH

    There, that killed a minute :)

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  49. Ginger

    OK, so I did swap some more of my "SLW piggy bank" for some Camino and Kirkland Lake. And added to Avino and Bralorne. Camino and Kirkland are laying there like dead fishes. I'm kinda worried but just wanted to get it done already. I'm not a very patient guy when I make up my mind. Kirkland is a producer so my own advice would be to suspect a hedging problem. I'll be watching that one like a hawk, with my finger on the trigger.

    I'm done for sure now though. Got way too many names now. Seriously. No more.... ;)

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  50. I decided to pass on Rye Patch.

    I keep telling myself "can't own 'em all"

    Then I go and buy something. It's a sickness.

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  51. I can't believe Canadian Zinc today. Up almost 30% right now. Incredible.

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  52. ScottJ,

    Just to add a little to your excellent comments on Revett. Their proposed Rock Creek mine is in a National Park, which may give some pause, and it would me but for the fact it will be an underground mine about 1000ft under the park, the park will hardly be disturbed, the aboveground footprint in the park will only be about 40 acres. Revett has designed many flora and fauna protection measures, as well as will be treating wastewater to a drinking water standard.

    You can click on the links in the Revett website to see how the locals view the mine, the protection measures, how the Forestry Service and Fish and Wildlife have approved it, etc.

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  53. @ SilverSurfer

    Try John Doody's GoldStockAnalyst.com, subscription charge, but he does a thorough analyis of gold (and silver) miners in the detailed report option. Also, recommends a top 10 list.

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  54. Ha Ha Ginger
    Didn't I say I didn't like CZN? Now up 30%? Sounds like the infallible system is to buy whatever I walk away from. I guess everybody should buy Rye Patch now since I didn't buy it. lol

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  55. I used to get John Doody's stuff years ago. Very good professional stuff. Not promotional at all.

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  56. In this environment, and with its story, CZN could stun us all! Meanwhile there are so many silver stocks to chose from - just jump on the ones that are moving, don't have to overthink things.

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  57. The battle is going on .. i put a screenshot from BBG here .. keep an eye on #Ticks :

    http://nachrichtensammlung.blogspot.com/2011/02/was-ein-kampf-bitte-auf-die-ticks.html

    start was at : 31308..

    i keep it up to date today

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  58. Silversurfer,

    Some of even the so called "professional" sites have some pump and dump stocks, so beware. I have heard the Keiser Bottom Fishing report is good but haven't tried it yet. Dr. Michael Berry does an excellent job with his Discovery Investing and it's free. Bullion Bulls Canada also discusses many precious metal miners/explorers.

    There are a couple of threads on the Kitco forum, look under the precious metal miners discussion thread, specifically the Miners Due Diligence thread and BoG's Penny Stock thread.

    Good Luck!

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  59. 100,000 volume in 5 mins....is that alot? ;-)

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  60. Dumped my cotton stock before my account went negative (still not sure what happened to that), and bought some AGQ on the dip.

    Happy Kiwi.

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  61. Ging

    Forgot to say I added to Argonaut too.

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  62. I see a lot of hammers in silver:
    1hour,
    2hour,
    4hour,
    8hour,
    daily (almost)...

    I think this is trying to tell us something...
    -
    P.S. I am a big fan of AUNFF, my brother and my mom own it, I wish I could own all these fantastic stocks (well you can, but you know how it goes).
    -
    Scott

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  63. @DC -

    Couldn't stop laughing at "BAH, MY TRESTLES"

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  64. When investing in precious metals always keep the seasonal strength and weakness in mind!!!!!

    http://www.seasonalcharts.com/classics_silber.html

    http://www.seasonalcharts.com/classics_gold.html

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  65. Eric,
    Rethink that CZN! ..But it's all a shot in the dark.. ..well, to some degree. You said a mouth FULL with the advice about Blythe giveth and Blythe taketh away. CZN could tank by day's end. :[ ...I am weak at knowing where to take profits also. ..Mainly, I just think I'm in it for the long haul. ..for the time being..

    Also, I took your advice and just liquidated two of my 'dead fishes'. We've all got'em... Not just you. I'm betting you are happy with bunches of your picks right about now!

    SilverSurfer,
    This might not be exactly what you have in mind.. but I do find that ScottJ88's site (www.thehardrightedge.com) has some great info on miners..with links and info to other sites that have good info. It's not paid (yet!).. but he has some great thoughts. ..As does kilguy38 who posts on here and has his own blog.

    FISD,
    As mentioned above..I just sold some stinky miners so I am going to check out AUNFF

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  66. Eric,
    CZN will probably have a major pullback after this.. ..Also, another reason I like this play is because of the Hunt Bros. history with this one and just being involved in 'finishing' up that story is kinda surreal.

    I know.. ...You're not supposed to make investment decisions on emotion as I seem to be doing here. ..It just 'feels' right though.. kwim?

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  67. CO_Dan,

    I am hard-pressed to add more to the brilliant analysis that Turd has provided over the past week. In any case, this market has all the hallmarks of one taking set position at the blocks. I didn't buy the dollar rally off the lows yesterday, and clearly the selling in the metals complex was a co-conspirator.

    I have been in this market for some time, and frankly, we are so far up a creek at this point that even for Turd to state anything is possible falls short of accounting for the fireworks that await us.

    Fraud is a particularly spooky topic for markets to digest -- and when they get it, though they may take their sweet time, they are absolutely ruthless in exacting punishment. I foresee many investors in hedged silver producers, ignoring their wives, while lamenting "the one that got away".

    The caveat: don't let it be you :)

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  68. Just hopped on Canadian Zinc with some extra funny money lying around. Why not, lets see it run some more!

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  69. @mrgneiss - is that Dr. Michael Berry from "The Big Short"?

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  70. The nutcase ruling Libya will not stand down, will fight, and will die a martyr he says.

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  71. Sprott PSLV is up 4.51% right now while spot silver is down $.73

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  72. @ Silersurfer

    Try Bill Downey
    You can subscribe to him for a month for free, then he charges 10$ a month. I get intra-day updates from him and he also gives price action and stock recommendation.

    His website is at: http://www.goldtrends.net/

    -
    Also, in reference to my website, I have just taken the time to read through tons and tons of threads, but am no means an expert. I am constantly learning, just as everyone should be! I have all the links that I have used to get to where I have gotten to (mainly Bag of Gold's Penny Stock Thread), as the first page has miners you never have heard on that are extremely speculative and extremely rewarding (if you find the right ones, which if you look long enough, it will become obvious, as there has been a LOT of discussion on the thread)

    https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=68585

    Bookmark that thread, as the first page has literally a list of potential miners that has been picked through by some very diligent research by the kitco community, namely Bag of Gold.
    -
    My website will never be of charge, as that is a way that discriminates those who need it the most. This is not about $$, this is about something much bigger. I am just trying to make money to use it to help the revolution. You must understand the following line that Turd's website is based off, and I give special attention too everyday of my life...

    "The end of the Great Keynesian Experiement is upon us. Prepare Accordingly."

    -
    Truly interesting times, and if you ever get some time to wander around about political issues and a few tid-bits on what I think is going on, feel free to stop by.

    http://thehardrightedge.com
    -
    I am always lurking.. don't be a stranger~
    -
    Scott

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  73. SilverSurfer...

    I've been following this miners forum thread on Kitco for a while. Seems like a great bunch of contributors and the forum moderator "BagOfGold" does a great job of always keeping up on things all day long.

    https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=68585

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  74. thecoloredsky,
    I upped my Silvermex postion by 7000 shares in early January (before the price proceeded to tank by .20/share..lol) ...I love SLX ...but I sure am wishing right about now that I had added those shares to CZN instead! :[]

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  75. Scottj88...

    Looks like we posted the same link to Bag of Gold's forum at nearly the same time for the SilverSurfer.

    Glad someone else recommends it too. I read that thing every day and am learning a lot.

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  76. Take a look at the volume on silver futures. we are at 100k - usually by this time when I look at it, its around 55-60k. Amazing volume! What do you guys think this signifies? Major tug of war going on...

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  77. AARRRGGGHHH
    I cannot connect to TRE conference call at AMG; anyone have a synopsis thus far?
    Thanks.

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  78. Hey HingsightGenius,

    That book "The Big Short" was by another Michael, Michael Lewis.

    Dr. Berry is a very interesting and well-rounded person, and often gives briefings to various congressional committees on economic policy and critical metals/resources.

    If you are interested in gold/silver/critical metals/energy miners/explorers I highly recommmend signing up for his Disovery Investing Newsletter which is free.

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  79. @ Save_America1st

    Bag of Gold's thread will go down as one of the greatest community investment threads ever created on the internet.

    I seriously believe many of those stocks (and I will be jumping in once the speculative stocks REALLY start taking off). I am looking forward to the day when all of Bag of Gold's stock picks are up 10,000%+, as I feel there is great potential in a lot of what she talks about.
    -
    I am thinking down the road a bit, but shouldn't we all?

    https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=68585
    -
    Best investment thread ever! It is where I learned the basis for everything I know. I hopefully am going to meet Bag of Gold and Mr Genesis soon at the junior mining expo in toronto in early march!

    -
    Scott

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  80. Despite his bravado, Saddam was found hiding in a spider hole. Libya's leader will go the same way.

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  81. PSLV now up over 5%!!! Never seen this before!!

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  82. My birthday so I had to close out to go for dinner. Shame as it was just shaping up nicely :(

    Anyway look at the silver lease rate. Someone is in the shit.

    http://www.kitco.com/market/LFrate.html

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  83. "She's like Hitler in the Bunker."

    It reminds me of this movie clip I saw a while back. F* hilarious!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I0mhX9hpq3g

    SE

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  84. Great Panther and Impact still leading the way for me. Kirkland still playing "boat anchor" :(

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  85. Scott, looking forward to meeting you as well.

    I decided to stop lurking on here an start posting.

    If anyone has the time to go, and has specific questions for any precious metal miners or explorers, this show is the place to do it.

    It is called PDAC, the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada, but there are hundreds and maybe over a thousand of the smaller and mid-size miners. Last year among the comapanies I spoke with were Revett, Genco, Copper Fox. The prospector component is small so don't be put-off by that name.

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  86. Thanks for the miner tips guys, much appreciated. :)

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  87. Anybody know what time the Silver OI report gets updated at the CME?

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  88. Pat - re: TRE

    First, see my note above. Since then they've been discussing Buck Reef and the value it adds to the company, discussed the great geology. Discussed the reasons they focus on Tanzania only - 1) they know the country, 2) much of it is unmapped and unexplored, 3) the people and government offer a great opportunity for success. They've had their geologists on for the past hour. Now on to questions and answers.

    The biggest news is Jim Sinclair's change of position from Chairman to CEO and the nomination of Joseph Kahama to Chairman. There is a strong commitment to the shareholders of this company and the people of Tanzania.

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  89. Silversurfer - I subscribed to Bob Chapmans International Forecaster and Doug Caseys International Speculator for about 4 years, and my experience of both was mixed.

    For example, Bob recommended Rainy River at less than a dollar and it is now 13 or thereabouts. On the other hand, another stock that he pushed heavily at 1.60 trades for a penny now (and I held all the way down - an expensive lesson).

    I think google is as good as any paid service to be honest. I bought Great Panther at 1.20 before I discovered this blog simply by entering "mid tier silver producer" and reading a few free articles in the search results.

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  90. Eric,
    I sold my impact last week.

    Yeah. I know. "/

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  91. FISD, Thank you very much; killing me not to hear live. Appreciate your real time synopses.

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  92. Ging

    I got Impact from you to begin with! Oh, well. Over the long haul, it's not a bad strategy to just do the opposite of what I do. Just ask Mrs. Eric.

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  93. Eric,
    LOL.. I know. I thought about that after you told me you bought in to it. I didn't have the heart to tell you I'd sold. ....Today is the day I REALLY shouldn't have the heart to tell you that I sold because I look like a full blown fool now for recommending it.. selling it.. then it shoots up.

    ROFL. ..you win some you lose some.

    You can now show this to Mrs. Eric as proof that your choices are sound. ...Mine?.. maaaybe not so much sometimes.

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  94. I just checked out the sample issue over at GoldStockAnalyst.com

    Looks exactly the same as it did 10 years ago. Data, data, data. Very good. It's not like a lot of other ones where you wonder if the guy is being paid to pump the stock. Not just a huge list of penny stocks either. You'll get everything from the majors to some select juniors.

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  95. SilverSurfer,

    I think they update it around lunch time - I seem to recall that from somewhere. Check back at noon, 1pm -ish.

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  96. @ Turd's Followers

    Those looking for rock-solid advice, MrGneiss has entered the arena! For those who don't who I am talking about, he is the right hand man to Bag of Gold in the legendary thread described above. The amount of information that he has about miners is breathtaking.

    For the regulars on this comment section, watch what MrGneiss talks about, as he knows his stuff and much more! He is much better at the dirty work and can read through mining reports like its nobodies business. I am sure glad that he has graced the community with his presence!
    -
    Scott

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  97. Meeting concluded. The new site has lots of potential.

    The EE seems determined to hold 33.25. Gee, where have I heard that before...

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  98. Last night I was telling da wife that maybe I would pick out some physical silver to sell today. That I had bought some of it solely with an eye toward flipping it in the 30's. She asked "Do you think it's going higher?' I said "yes" She said "Then just keep it."

    Ahhhh. "My wife. I think I'll keep her." :D

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  99. Sure thing Pat - Santa has been talking for about 10 minutes on his business philosophy. Good ole' fashioned take care of your workers, take care of your shareholders, take care of the country you work in, make sure that EVERYONE makes money. Good men like that are hard to find these days. Can't tell you how satisfying it is to have my fiat dollars invested in a company that he has built rather than the fucking banks.

    Santa rocks!

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  100. MrGneiss,
    You have my undivided attention here in Turd's World.

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  101. Ginger

    You sold Impact and I didn't buy CZN, so maybe we are even. Hey, we pays our money and we takes our chances!

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  102. Corn is limit down and beans are tanking. Anybody know why? There does not appear to be a solid reason behind this. Without a reason, I have to suspect that this is an act of desperation -- bring crude, copper, grains down in hope that buyers of silver and gold will relent.

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  103. @Craig: Makes perfect sense, though. Blythe appears to be running OI to infinity. Money's going to move to where there's real silver.

    Might as well go out in a blaze of glory, eh Blythe?

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  104. "Ahhhh. "My wife. I think I'll keep her."

    She's a keeper. So many have situations where one spouse or the other is not on board and that is so tough. Can you imagine trying to buy the metals, invest the extra fiat, buy extra food, etc....and having to convince someone at home on top of all the stress of preparing? I really feel for those that go thru that because it's difficult enough as it is.

    Also, I'm impressed that you and others bought at such a low level that you would even CONSIDER selling some now. I wish I had. I only started buying at the mid-$20 level. "/ urrrg.

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  105. CME updated their report:

    Loss of 2277 silver March 11 contracts.

    Still remaining: 50848 contracts!

    http://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/Section62_Metals_Futures_Products_2011034.pdf

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  106. "My wife. I think I'll keep her."

    Do you remember that commercial? I can't even remember what it was for, but it's kind of a term of endearment around our house. She usually responds with a friendly elbow to the ribs.

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  107. @reefman - Amazing, huh? Forget price - this is where the real action is. Now we just have to wait 24h for the next data point...

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  108. Eric, I was thinking more along the lines of these lyrics from GnR:

    I used to love her, but I had to kill her
    I used to love her, but I had to kill her
    I knew I miss her
    So I had to keep her
    She's buried right in my back yard

    I used to love her, but I had to kill her
    I used to love her, but I had to kill her
    She bitched so much
    She drove me nuts
    And now I'm happier this way

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  109. Ging
    I like that little "/ thing you do. Yes, it's a smile, but for me it also evokes images of those pointy nosed critters on the old popeye cartoons for some reason.

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  110. Scott! Thanks for the shout out, if you could see me blushing like a shy virgin....not that many on here have seen any for some time and probably wouldn't recongize one if they walked into one (excluding family members)

    Really Scott, I appreciate the compliments, but you are the one that deserves kudos along with Turd for your great sites, for having the initiative and courage to actually bring them to fruition, while I merely add the occasional comment. You have obviously learned a lot about the miners and do as good as job as me or better analyzing them.

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  111. Wow. All that counterfeit POMO money sailing in on the short side. Fantastic. Shakin the tree HARD.

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  112. very interesting OI update, IF accurate (even reasonably so) then things are about to get VERY interesting.. I await Harveys update with great interest later tonight...

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  113. I just added CZN to my watch list just to remind me on what I missed.

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  114. corn and beans bouncing back now from limit down. Wild trading. I still have not found a reason for limit down.

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  115. Those 50K March contracts will be the death of the COMEX if they don't roll.

    I don't think Blythe had any choice but to attack today like there's no tomorrow.

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  116. "My wife. I think I'll keep her."

    As an aside (while we avoid our work and watch the spot/miner prices..lol)

    Take a look at this link for a stroll back through commercial memory lane. Go to the very last link on the page...commercial megamix... for the above. .....(I feel somewhat old now:)

    http://www.tvparty.com/comjing.html

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  117. "/ = I want my IMPACT back!!

    LOL Reefman.

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  118. I'll bet they added 25,000 shorts today to cap the price. They have to start covering soon.

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  119. If the EE stays true to pattern, expect another quick hammer down any minute. Buy like crazy at 32.50.

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  120. I know of MrGneiss and look forward to his views and maybe a few picks.

    My horses are Golden Predator, Pelangio, Tarsis and Aurcana.

    Love REE's as well, have made a killing on Tasman Metals. I like and own Ucore Rare Metals (UURAF). But Medallion Resources (MLLOF)is my favorite baby REE and is a good buy right now at .44 Ask.

    Last for now, a very interesting pick bound for greatness: Focus Metals (FCSMF). Biggest pile of high quality flake graphite in the world. Many industrial uses and the Pebble Bed nuke reactors that everyone is building use the stuff by the tone. Graphite will be rising along with Uranium. The stock has started to take off in the past month, consider getting some exposure soon. No EE to worry about here either!

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  121. Check out this chart from LAST NIGHT on Trader Dan's site:

    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-3uZnRyJgbRE/TWNCP6Qzz2I/AAAAAAAAAFU/VYUUQk4rpZo/s1600/snapshot-423.png

    Absolutely prescient.

    No wonder Turd almost DEMANDS we go there.

    They should really join forces....

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  122. Corn CBOT report news at 9:45EST

    The losses were prompted by unrest in Libya and elsewhere in the Middle East, which is making investors increasingly nervous about the global economy, analysts said.

    "The uncertainty overseas sends people out, to reduce their exposure to risk," said Shawn McCambridge, senior grains analyst for Prudential Bache.

    The unrest, including increased violence in Libya, a key oil-producer, has sent crude oil prices skyrocketing. McCambridge said investors fear that higher energy costs could derail the recovery of the global economy, which would hurt commodity demand.

    But he also called the decline a "knee-jerk" reaction to the political unrest, and that ultimately supply and demand fundamentals for corn remain very strong. The government projects U.S. supplies will be precariously tight this year.

    The sharply higher energy prices could also have a supportive effect on corn, said Don Roose, president of U.S. Commodities in Des Moines, Iowa.

    Because 40% of the U.S. crop now goes to ethanol, corn is tied to energy prices, analysts said. Higher gasoline prices will in turn support ethanol, which would give a boost to ethanol producers currently struggling with higher corn prices.

    Traders have been watching for signs that high corn prices have been curtailing, or "rationing" demand, a step that's needed in order to conserve tight supplies.

    "It makes it more difficult for rationing to take place when energy's skyrocketing," Roose said.

    Analysts add that the market is in a precarious position technically, which could accelerate losses if the market slumps. But end-users have used recent breaks in prices to make purchases, Roose said.

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  123. Thanks reefman.

    copper taking a beating down today.

    Pat, wish every CEO/chairman/executive strived to emulate Jim Sinclair. Here's a few snippets from the early part of the CC:

    - Chinese business philosophy: have a plan, work a plan. IOW's, the chinese mean business.
    - they've agreed to 3% royalty over 30 years;
    - Chinese taken all expenses/costs – elected TRE to be political partner – stay on base for work permits, permits to mine/explore, relationships with locals
    - Sovereign company has elected TRE as political intermediary even though Chinese have best possible connections having supported Tanzania when west (not Canada) US viewed Tanzania as opposition
    - 3-5 yrs production - Jim said this is a realistic goal -
    - Chinese put in communication line – dug it by hand in 2 months – again, they mean business
    - Lot more than a royalty arrangement
    - Short position that existed in Canada come to a point down to nil b/c read 43-101 dealing with properties
    - This is a war & I am defending for you
    - Inexplicable takedowns occur unless someone seriously short
    - Short in Canada is closed – read report, this company has serious properties, for which serious work/results; downside, upside risk
    - But shorts still open in the US – they are less discrimination (nice way of saying stupid) meaning they don’t read material but modestly coming down
    - Don’t understand why major mines sell everything they have; must believe gold will lose value
    - And I believe, b/c I know in being in the industry for 50 yrs, know gold is going to $1650
    - Difficulty in choosing right currency has become unmanageable – gold will continue to become currency of strength without liability; storehouse of value; medium of exchange
    - We have finest technical board you can have
    - goal: If producing 320 tons/hour, 2 shifts of 10 hours, 20 hours/day X 320 tons = 6400 tons per day
    - Wouldn’t go near it if we thought it was a waste of time

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  124. ag/au pits seem to be stabilizing (or warily looking out for incoming EE). A hold here could release for a move up.

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  125. keep an eye on soybean oil.

    Mrs. Eric works at an onion ring factory and the price of soybean oil is pretty much the whole ball of wax. Very much a problem. I guess the company hedged a bunch of it lower, but I think those hedges are running out.

    Down smartly today, so that's a relief.

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  126. re the news that 50K contracts are still standing:

    Please recall that the Wynter Benton group mentioned MANY times the bulk of their buying would be THIS week.

    I know, I know -- there are a lot of naysayers here. BUT, IF that is true... watch out.

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  127. @pathoekstra

    Thanks. The market seems schizophrenic. I would not be surprised if corn is limit up tomorrow for the same "reason" it is limit down today.

    Maybe the corn speculators are liquidating to buy something else? Something shiny?

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  128. joe jost

    Just not soybean oil please.

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  129. cont'd...

    - Was hoping to say we are producing; believe me it’ll only be a few weeks
    - Reversed strategy on financers/traders to make sure not screwed over
    - $24.5M invested in the company – wanted us to know – will contribute everything he has/everything he is – remains 100% commitment to us
    - Education site is important – understand jsmineset has a place & it’s a teaching forum – read international – under 30,000 as top sites
    - Traderdan taking care of it, Eric will become one of the most important persons, Monty – not surrounded by yes people – challenges you to constantly review & examine conclusions – to be absolutely sure what you’re telling people is truth
    - No one knows everything; can’t be sure won’t go into sov’n default…but must understand underlying characteristics which company is built up upon…that all circumstances meet need that $1650 is real – not b/c of chart, not b/c of mathematical…b/c of makers & shakers – those that are causing great problems will be greatest profit centres
    - Build a major concern without further financing/dilute SH interest; picking up a little bit here & there
    - not out of acquisition business
    - focused on not carrying anything that doesn’t have potential to be significant addition to company
    - company will be progressing & earning, if successful in endeavours, don’t need add’l cash, expanding exploration, as taking values, # of exploration, mgmt will be expanded, move up from exploration into junior producer, constantly carrying on exploration for big cahuna, so total transformation
    - not a 1 property company; largest landholder of potentially mineralized property in Tanzania; own or control 10K sq Km’s
    - very important to remain reasonably liquid so he’s there if absolutely necessary - in other words, Jim will step in to fund the company as a safety net
    - Live in an environment of destruction – don’t want to see anything being built but want to see everything taken down (is Jimmy an Ayn Rand disciple?!!)
    - Leadership in gov’t – free markets, going after corruption, president fired whole cabinet; this is the country you’d want to be a part of – growth & business supported


    that's the pertinent stuff imo prior to the overview of the properties & Q&A (still ongoing as I type)

    Sinclair is very very impressive. And this is an understatement.

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  130. I will C&P caramels comments onto new thread as the are very important.

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  131. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  132. Ginger, can't help there, not familiar enough to provide any helpful input. Based on a quick look, the share structure looks good at 81mm o/s. One reason I like MLLOF so much is their 44.5mm shares o/s. What a little keg of TNT.

    Along those lines, be aware that my favorite little monster Tarsis (TARSF) has only 24.7mm o/s, yeeha! When Tarsis breaks out, fuggedaboudit :-0)

    In terms of evaluating any miner, I'm a big disciple of Mickey Fulp's People/Projects/Share Structure method. Does the company have top quality Mgmt with a track record of gettin' 'er done and making $$$? Do they have projects to make your mouth positively water? Most importantly, can their Financials match the promise of the other 2- -- this is SO key as it's here where most companies fail.

    For any fellow residents of Turd Town who don't already know, Mickey Fulp is a source of some of the best PM, REE and Uranium analysis and picks available to we plebs. Best of all, it's 100% free. If you register your email address on his site you'll also get exclusive "Mercenary Musings" that do not appear on his website (www.mercenarygeologist.com).

    Honestly I cannot recommend strongly enough that all TT residents at least be aware of Mickey and his work. Great information given in a timely manner is the key to winning this game. Overall Fulp's picks have been excellent, thanks to him I made lots of money on Almaden and Tasman. Of course I immediately turned it into Ag and AU. My strategy is to use most of my Miner gains to buy more PM than I'd otherwise have been able to afford.

    Playing "home Alchemist" and turning paper frns into PM is maybe the thing that turns me on most about all of this. I mean how sweet is that? Does it get any better?

    Buona fortuna all.

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  133. @Joe Jost

    The corn report came from IOWA, which stands for IdiotsOutWalkingAbout, incidentally, where I was born and raised under survival conditions.

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  134. Have to wonder if our dear Blythe, not having the success in Siler and Gold she wanted has whacked platinum and palladium to try and create some overall down trend in the PMs. Not that it's working mind you but palladium got hammered!

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