Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Wow

At the risk of sounding crazy. At the risk of ruining whatever minimal "reputation" I may have. Most importantly, at the risk of losing money, I have to say this: I think we have Blythe on the run. Big time. My rationale for this is going to be difficult to summarize in writing but here goes. Bear with me...

Today, 2/16/11, was an extraordinary day of FUTFs and FUBMs in the silver pit on the Comex and I'll explain that shortly but it all needs to be placed into context.

If someone wants to purchase physical silver through the Comex, they must first buy a future or option contract for a "delivery" month. The current delivery contract is the March11. Before the close of trading on 2/28, any holders of March contracts must sell their positions or be forced to take delivery. Those unwilling to take delivery typically "roll" their position into the next month, which is May. If an investor does intend to take delivery, that person must, by the close on the 28th, show in their account enough money to pay for their acquisition. A single contract is for 5,000 ounces so, at $30/oz, you must show available funds of $150,000. For 10 contracts, you must have $1.5MM. This is kind of a "put up or shut up" thing. It keeps goofballs from claiming they want delivery when they really can't afford it. On the 28th, you've got to have the dough in your account to "prove" to TPTB that your are serious. Every delivery month, the EE/Comex plays this game and, every month, enough longs simply roll instead of standing for delivery so that the Comex has yet to default on their obligations to deliver the physical silver.

Now, here's the problem...Monday was 2/14. Only 10 trading days to go until the critical 28th. Heading into Monday's trade, there were still 62,692 open contracts for March. This had to really get the attention of the EE and they, without question, went into Monday with a plan to attack silver and scare as many March longs as possible into rolling to May or later. Unfortunately for Blythe, silver began to rally in the wee hours of Monday morning and broke $30 while she was still sleeping. It closed that day above $30.50. But that wasn't the true disaster for the EE. The real shock was when they got the new OI numbers Monday night and found that the March OI had only fallen to 61,720. Panic surely began to set in. Then yesterday, silver traded even higher, briefly touching $30.90. Earlier today, we got the OI numbers basis yesterday and it was an eye-opener. As of last night, there are still 59,851 open March contracts. And first notice day is now only eight days away!!! Blythe had this information before the general public so she knew, going into today, that she had to attack again and she did. Here's your chart:
Obviously, it didn't work and that's the problem.

Recall for a moment how the EE caps price. They do so by flooding the Comex with an almost endless amount of unbacked, paper silver. Think about that trade, though. To sell short, you need a buyer on the other side of the trade. And now, at this late hour, how can you reduce the open interest in the March contract if you're only selling new paper shorts to resolute longs who intend to stand for delivery in eight days? By raiding and selling, you're only compounding your problem because you are creating more open interest! If you're Blythe, you're left with only being able to freely sell the forward contracts in an attempt to influence the spot and nearby price. Does this explain the current backwardation? Probably.

To the point, however, what's a girl to do? You can see by looking at the chart above that Blythe tried to raid today but she didn't seem to do it with the usual bluster and gusto. How could she? Every new March contract she sells only adds to her problem. She is truly caught in a catch-22. Again, what's a girl to do?

If the March longs stay resolute, she's screwed. Even if only 20,000 stand for delivery, thats 100,000,000 ounces that the Comex has to deliver. By most estimates, that's their entire inventory. She and The Evil Empire must, somehow, convince/force March contract holders to close their positions but if they can't scare them by crushing price, how do they do it? They could get the CME to raise margin requirements but if you're ready to stand for delivery by putting up 100% of the cost in eight days, a margin increase today is of zero consequence.

So what's left? She can't scare people out through raids and she can't finance people out through margin hikes. She's fucked. She/They will be forced to settle again in cash + premium, just as many suspected they had back in December. However, back then it was just a couple thousand contracts. Now it could be 20,000. Shit, it could be 40,000! And the problem is, word is out. What do you think will happen in May?!? Will 80,000 stand for delivery? 100,000?

So the point is this: Ding dong, The Wicked Witch is hurting. Bad. All the years of Evil Empire domination/manipulation of the PMs appear to be coming to a rapid and spectacular end. Watch the Open Interest numbers very closely. They are your tell.
Buy all dips until and unless the OI situation significantly changes.
Now truly appears to be the moment we've been waiting for. TF

158 comments:

  1. For those who missed my other post I'll repost it here:

    Graphs of COMEX SILVER INVENTORY:

    COMEX SILVER WAREHOUSE - REGISTERED

    COMEX SILVER WAREHOUSE - ELIGIBLE

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  2. WOW indeed Mr Ferguson. Excellent stuff once again.

    Stand For Delivery Bitchez!

    Bay of Pigs says "oink" to that.

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  3. Thanks for the analysis, Turd. Incredibly valuable.

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  4. Thanks, Turd, for deciphering all this!!!!!

    Now, a question regarding SLV....apparently, the expiry on those options is in March.....do you think that will be a doomsday for SLV? I have a small amount still in it and am wondering what's going on with that?

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  5. Thanks that really cleared up the dates and how Comex works.
    Also thanks for letting me link to my blog to help folks prepare. I'm still small but I had the most hits in one day ever!! I like to know I'm helping folk.
    Picked up another 5 oz. today at the dip!!

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  6. Hey Turd, how do you know its JPM? If you only knew...

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  7. Wow, is right Bay. Great summary TF. Why is SLW lagging this move? Any insights from the others are welcome, as well.

    BTW, I am(have been) jacked on Junior silver miners, and a goodly amount of Uranium and gold miners to boot.

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  8. Excellent analysis! I hadn't thought of it that way, but it makes perfect sense. I wish the mining stocks were confirming a little better to give greater confidence. I suspect EE finds them easier to contain, create divergences and non confirmations to sow seeds of doubt on this move. Whats up with PAAS? Any news or just option expiry related BS?

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  9. So Turd are you saying that Wynter's posse is the real deal now? How else could one explain tens of thousands of people waiting for their physical delivery in march, if it wasn't a coordinated effort? :D

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  10. Thanks Turd for a great blogg. Like many other in your community I enjoyed todays actions. Sold on the FUTF, bought on the FUBM and enjoyed all the comments on the site!

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  11. Well presented! Holding Apr 28 calls. Thinking of rolling into Mar 30s.

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  12. Hi Bob loves Hawaii , can you please share your Junior silver and gold miner picks. Thanks. I am currently looking into Tinka Resources (Credit to Silvergoldsilver)

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  13. Back in November there were also huge standing contracts in the mid of the month to the tune of 50+K or sth like that but they went down fast to only 5K+ as end of month approached. Let's see how many of them hold on tight this time around. Chances are EE will bribe some to roll over. I'll be happy if there are 10K left on Mar 1st and take anything more than that as bonus.

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  14. Thanks again Turd! This last post of yours somehow has that 'instant classic' feel written all over it.

    You're gifted with mad skills!

    Also wondering what Harvey has to say about all this! Usually I'm not that much into ticker-tv but today was different. You could actually see that she's running out of cards...

    Interesting days are ahead of us...

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  15. tacktic, Bill Fleckenstein (https://www.fleckensteincapital.com/index.aspx) says there is an "insanity quotient" in miners that you have to factor in. Day-to-day miner price movements can contradict physical prices.

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  16. Thanks Turd you keep a really good running commentary on the state of the market. Let's not get too carried away with the prospect of a comex default. It's not going to happen. when push comes to shove the longs roll. Happens every time.
    We won't know until we know and that's like on 3/1. The EE has all kinds of ways to force the longs out. If BM can't do it they send in the heavies and big longs are subjected to some very severe arm twisting until they relent. They are not going to let a bunch of silver bulls crash the system. Be careful what you wish for anyway, all we really need is a good old fashioned short squeeze and let the price rise to clear the market.

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  17. Next Monday is President's day...COMEX/NYMEX should be closed. That's 7 days left.

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  18. $HUI confirmed today the 540 cross set yesterday now I would like to see it show some strenght during the next couple of days. SLW was being accumulated today with the MMs usual skill

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  19. tacktic
    PAAS reported earnings today. Looks like they might have disappointed a little bit on earnings and guidance. Probably a one day hit. I wouldn't sweat it.

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  20. Wow, Buy the dips? If the longs stay resolute, we just need to buy. Period. thanks !! We will be watching the OI.

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  21. If the silver shorts are defeated now, their power to intimidate the gold market will (or should) weaken in the future.

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  22. Wandee,

    You are most likely correct on the chance of a COMEX default, but bear in mind the situation is now changing before us. It is unmistakable to see the jig is up for the evil rotten banking cartel and their efforts to suppress the metals. They can't deliver the metal even if they wanted to. They are in full retreat.

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  23. The question for me is, Balls to the wall: one ball or two?

    I think one.

    Fundos and techos look supreme. Therefore, Blythe is most likely planning a huge take-down, with a margin hike and a twist.

    As Mad Skillz Professor Turd says, watch the OI.

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  24. For the Wynter Benton skeptics, please realize that the STATED intention of "the group" is to buy the majority of contracts AT THE END OF THE MONTH.

    IF (big IF) their group is for real, the current number does/may not even reflect this yet.

    I have yet to see ANYTHING which would make me conclude they are not for real.

    We shall see...

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  25. tf
    so this begs the question...
    which path does she take?
    is there a third option? one that changes the rules at the eleventh hour and bails them out for at least another two months? and what could this unforeseen tactic be?
    can't see them just sitting and watching Rome burn...

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  26. If you want to find and track the info Turd references (59,851 open interest on Mar11 futures), here's how:

    Go here:
    http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/build-a-report.html?report=dailybulletin

    Then, choose Metals in the Asset Class/Totals drop down, choose Silver in the Product Name drop down, then click on Create Report.

    When you open the pdf file, look for the SI FUT COMEX SILVER FUTURES section. In it you will see Mar11. Look over to the second last column and you'll see the current Open Interest.

    Maybe there's an easier way, but this is how I found it. Or, you could just wait for Harvey everynight. But I prefer primary sources.

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  27. a major market crash will take stocks gold and silver along with it which actually might be easier to do than deliver all that BOOTY!!!

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  28. Wendy, you're right!!! I had completely overlooked that. 7 days to go!

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  29. Let me play the contrarian here. I don't see a default happening. That would be an unprecedented disaster, such that, even if you are correct in assessing the ominousness of the predicament TPTB are in (and I'm not necessarily sure of that, either; as you say, why on earth are they still shorting the market like madmen?), there would undoubtedly be nuclear options of various weapon yields that they'll resort to before crying uncle. You can rise to the top in government by being a complete head-in-sand shit-for-brained glad-handing douche-sack, but not on Wall Street.

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  30. Chris, at this point for Blythe it's "damned her if she does, and damned her if she doesn't" ~ meaning if the price drops then those holders of the contracts would have to pay less to buy the physical silver outright. If the price rises then they have to pay more - but the shorts get squashed. That's how I understand it anyway. She is in a catch22 (just like The Ben Bernank) ~ damned nice spot for someone like her.

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  31. brad pitts, the story on Warren Buffett's famous foray into physical silver was that the govt told/asked him to back off.

    When big money is at stake, anything can happen. ANYthing.

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  32. sumo
    agreed and that's the unknown factor i worry about...

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  33. and i wonder what warren's payback for that was?

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  34. my explanation of the whole wynter/comex raid conspiracy thing

    Wynter: bitter/axed wall street trader hoping to make a name for him/herself.. decides to try and start an arab-like revolution through the yahoo chat boards

    flying monkey attacks: probably some uber algo box programmed by a quant nerd living in the server room at JP... perhaps he's in love with Blythe and trying to win her over

    The run-ups since January: What can we say - everyone trades the charts, so if enough people believe in Wynter's group then this would basically be a self fulfilling prophecy, no?

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  35. Turd, perhaps one of your most informative, insightful posts yet.

    Did anyone catch Muse performing Uprising at the Grammy's over the weekend? I found the image of the bank collapsing at about 2:40 in very fitting. Perhaps they were alluding to the Comex?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7MZNd3JlFE

    We will be victorious!

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  36. Forgot to mention, be sure watch the end of their performance where they show a collection of fiat currencies all going up in flames! LOL!

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  37. This may be factoring in also in March if all of these people stick with what they pledged.

    Stand For Delivery

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  38. Alexander, I own Endeavor,First Majestic, Revvett, South American Silver, Bear Creek, Great Panther, Silver Mex, and Silver Wheaton.

    Goro, AEM, GDX, GDXJ, and Sandstorm for my gold.

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  39. Meanwhile the big government crooks are up to their usual dirty tricks again. Do mind the political environment when picking mining stocks. There are reasons I stay shy of HL and other US miners b/c you can see the crap like below coming (not that there's no such crap in other nations tho).

    "Obama Administration calls for 5% royalty on gross proceeds of mines".
    http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page72068?oid=120691&sn=Detail&pid=102055

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  40. Look how desperate the corporate media is becoming to shake the longs:

    Dump gold, buy stocks for the decade ahead, newsletter editor says

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-bugs-about-to-get-squashed-2011-02-16

    They should report on Turd's blog for truth!

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  41. latest from wynter

    "Turd Ferguson latest blog has our group buzzing but perhaps for all the wrong reasons. Thank you Turd for re-iterating what we have been trying to disseminate these last few weeks, but a small minority within are group is raising a note of caution. I would be remiss if I did not mention it here and ask all those with relevant thoughts and opinions to please chime in.

    Some of us are questioning the INTEGRITY of the Comex data. Some of us are wondering whether or not Comex will deliberatly distort the March OI to obfuscate what is really going on. Initially, some of us openly questioned whether Comex would deliberately downplay the number of Mar OI as we approach March 1 in an attempt to hide the true nature of their problem. Now these same people are wondering if Comex is deliberately overstating the number of Mar OI standing for delivery with the intention of deliberately underreporting the number of contracts standing for delivery after the March 1 deadline.

    Does everyone understanding what I am saying? The Comex is playing rope a dope right now over-inflating the number of Mar OI (currently) and after the deadline Comex will under-report the actual number of contracts standing for delivery. This way Comex can hide the depth of its delivery problem. A poster says that Comex would bust if 8,535 contracts stood for delivery. I would arugue that closer to 6,700 contracts need to stand for delivery to bust Comex since there will be close to 9 million ounces from the Jan and Feb options that will also be standing for delivery.

    What if Comex only reports say 4,000 contracts are standing for delivery come March 1 when the reality is something far higher? By doing this, Comex can fool the public into thinking that it does not have a delivery problem in March and use the month of March in order to extract physical silver to make its delivery. Either that or secretly settle for a lesser cash premium since it has convinced enough people that there isnt a delivery problem.

    What is the remedy to this problem? Our group is thinking of taking delivery if the price of silver is not above $37 in March. This is the exact scenario that Comex wants to have. A game theory problem among multiple participant with imperfect information. Even if there are many hedge funds like us, if Comex can pretend that it doesnt have a problem, then it cant be blackmailed into settling for a hefty premium even though it is still in dire straits. The only remedy is for everyone to stand for delivery no matter what, either that or gain 20 plus percent on the value of the contracts in which case silver must be above $37 in March.

    I'll have more to say later but for now this is what we are thinking.

    Our group is seriously thinking of standing for delivery if the price of silver is not over $37.
    "

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  42. Ok, I've had a couple of glasses now so let me make a fool of myself. What if Blythe is China and China is Blythe? Perhaps Ted butler is right?

    Perhaps the USA wants Silver to do a moon shot then they can implement what Kennedy want to do? Time for another drink. Sorry to bother you all

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  43. Matt,

    Great video. I enjoyed seeing PRINCE Charles and Camilla like deer in headlights - I also liked the acting of the protesters and the riot police goons.

    I wonder how on earth the New World Order allowed them to perform on stage to a world audience (although some of us barely know what Grammy Awards are).

    Thanks for sharing.

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  44. Turd, I'm in total agreement with you, but I think we need to let this play itself out for a few more days before we get too excited.

    As of November 16, the December OI was 64,290. By the end of that week (11/19) we were still holding strong at 48,991. It was the following week when most of the rolling happened.

    If anything, we're actually lagging slightly BEHIND November at the moment.

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  45. For what its worth...the thinking of WB would appear to be right on and they must plan for that eventuality. However, if I were in their shoes, I would double-down. You'll only break the Comex once so you might as well extract as much pain & gain as possible.

    Again, full disclaimer: I have NO IDEA if the "WB Group" is a real or imagined phenomena. I'm simply responding to the comment above from Frank N.

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  46. Dan, duly noted. I should clarify...
    I still do not expect a Comex default. The point of the post was to illustrate the possible, dramatic unwinding of EE influence over the PMs.

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  47. I'm famous! Wynter reads sassballsgrandpa (aka hammerup): A poster says that Comex would bust if 8,535 contracts stood for delivery.

    Turd was a little offbase with his 20,000 contracts. Don't forget, Turd, that only 41MM ounces are registered. The other part of the 102MM ounces in COMEX warehouses is eligible. That means the CUSTOMER owns this silver, and if JP Morgue desperately needs it to make delivery to a "stander", they will have to pay a handsome premium for this. But it matters not, the long term direction of silver is cast, and the direction is UP, not only because it is shiny, with amazing properties, but because it has been used up and discarded over the years due to the endless suppression of JP Morgue. Oh yeah, it also helps that the US dollar and all fiat currencies are devaluing rapidly in a race to the bottom.

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  48. Nice post, Turd. As Wynter "if they exist" Benton has alluded to, there is another way they could force people out. That would be to allow the price to RISE to a point where it's much less attractive to hold actual, physical silver. If they let it go up, that would disgorge physical from those who currently have it, and would make those seeking to acquire more likely to take paper profits instead.

    I would like to see an XtraNormal video of you and Blythe yelling at each other:

    "FU Turd Ferguson!"

    "FU Blythe Masters!"

    lol

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  49. Well I'm consider myself part of the "Turd" herd. In a team sort a way and not a sheep. I managed to buy a "dip". Huzzah!

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  50. What if the OI numbers are all bullshit so JPM can short into this rally, only to bring out more bogus numbers to hammer it down....just a thought, not sure how we can trust these JPM owned COMEX numbers, but so far, so good.

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  51. The WB thread is getting interesting. So there's someone claiming to be "doing their homework" on WB and they posted this link. Some guy named "Winter" who was a former JP exec. Could be an elaborate hoax, but interesting nonetheless.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/17/jpmorgan-winters-idUSN1611875220110217?feedType=RSS&feedName=companyNews&rpc=43

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  52. He was not just a former JP exec. He was a potential successor to Jamie Dimon. He was defenestrated:

    http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/10/07/the-defenestration-of-bill-winters/

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  53. this is a good post mr. ferguson. in any possible outcome I see JPM taking a major blow. keeping in mind that their various arms, trading desks, securities are taking serious blows simultaneously in their respective market space. Is this or is it not the reason for QE4eva?

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  54. Sassballsgranpa,
    Between you, WB and the REPORTED COT report if I had any Silver in the Comex I would be getting a little nervous. Blythe might be massaging the numbers and might out wit herself :)

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  55. This was a really, really great post on the Comex and how it works. Thank You! Simple..straight forward.. I got it! :]

    Can someone explain, however, how the EE would supress miners/share prices? I'm not certain I understand how these prices are 'contained' as they are in the spot market. Is it simply that when the spot price is manipulated the mining shares are vicariously manipulated?....or is there a separate move they make to contain miners?

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  56. Ginger, the EE doesn't specifically target the miners from what I can tell. Everything is cross correlated and moves in waves, pretty much together. The miners are correlated to: gold and silver, the general stock market, interest rates, Blythe's attacks, and news like today about Hecla postponing its earnings release. The last item took a chunk out of many miners today, all on its own..

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  57. silver and gold finally making a nice move up during Asian market hours, after being very flat for more than 3 weeks

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  58. Let me clarify what I just said.
    If I owned Silver in the Comex I would be nervous it could be used to settle the longs.

    If I were WB and I was really doing what I said I am going to do I would have a list of names and numbers of people who store at the Comex. I would be on the phone with them tonight and explain to them they might just lose their silver in a settlement to the longs. Bye bye inventory. Mission accomplished without spending a penny :)

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  59. Holy shit... At the risk of getting political (and I'm no fan of politicians or politics)... Watch this video about Ron Paul's winning the 2011 CPAC straw poll. Fox News apparently showed 2010's CPAC crowd reaction (lots of booing) and said it was from this year's. If it's true, I'm speechless.

    Did anyone actually see this live on Fox? I'm a tad skeptical because it's so utterly blatant and it would have been very easy to insert 2010's CPAC results announcement into the Fox broadcast to make it look like they did this.

    http://thehardrightedge.com/foxnews/

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  60. Not that you should trust everything you read in MSM, but, from the Reuters article above...
    "The venture is backed by two of Europe's wealthiest family investment groups: RIT Capital, the vehicle of Lord Jacob Rothschild, and Johann Rupert's Reinet fund, the newspaper reported."

    More historical background on Mr. Winters:

    http://www.senseoncents.com/tag/hat-prompted-bill-winters-departure-from-jp-morgan/

    http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2010/08/09/bill-winters-former-head-jp-morgan-banker-to-advise-cowderys-resolution/

    Which is not to say there is any connection between the alleged WB and this gentleman.

    On the topic of COMEX and JPM -- the former will be upheld by some means of smoke and mirrors, the latter will be made whole courtesy of Big Ben's Infinite Press. Or force majeure will be declared. OR they will suddenly "discover" that Chinese interests had "illegally" held an excessive amount of short positions -- and the long-awaited position limits will suddenly be enforced overnight. The most dangerous monster is a cornered monster.

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  61. Flaunt... The venture is backed by two of Europe's wealthiest family investment groups: RIT Capital, the vehicle of Lord Jacob Rothschild, and Johann Rupert's Reinet fund, the newspaper reported

    That is bizarre beyond belief.....if true then this thing reeks....

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  62. Yeah definitely bizarre if it's true, but could also mean "they" have lots of firepower at their disposal. Who knows...

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  63. Perhaps the USA wants Silver to do a moon shot then they can implement what Kennedy want to do? Time for another drink. Sorry to bother you all
    Wineguy. There are some people out there that think that Kennedy was assassinated because of Kennedy wanting to tie the dollar to silver.

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  64. TF, WB has posted on yahoo JPM. Can't get it to paste here.

    This is what I was concerned about earlier today when I posted. These guys have no rules they can lye, cheat and steal and get away with it. No one will hold them accountable not CFTC, comex or the gov't. Caution if it looks to good we have to be careful

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  65. Not sure I ever saw confirmation of this in the MSM today.
    Not sure if this counts as confirmation, either, but for what its worth:
    http://www.debka.com/article/20675/

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  66. Don't get me wrong. I'm all in, but have had a hot poker up my ass this time last year. So I'm a bit jumpy. I don't want us to count the chickens before they've laid the eggs

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  67. Turd,

    Common man... Relax.

    1) The COMEX does not default; the people holding short positions would default. And they wont, cause they have more fiat than god.
    2) Many people use comex / nymex / CME as financial positions only to hedge their other OTC agreements.
    3) Post historical charts of OI over time for major contracts for context.
    4) Im not sure all the longs are as resolute as you say; Free money from the FED doesn't just go into NFLX.

    Your war is not going to end at 30 something dollars be oz.

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  68. Does anyone have historical data regarding how much Open Interest there has been in previous months 8 days prior to the first day of notice?

    Has there been other months in the past where there was still this much OI so soon to notice day?

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  69. Theos, excellent points. All of them.
    Again, I did not intend this post to be about Comex default. It is about the EE seemingly losing the ability to directly influence and cap price.

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  70. Agree next week is key, at this stage the numbers are basically a replay of Nov / Dec.

    Price of silver can still appreciate substantially without massive deliveries in March (eg beyond 5,000 contracts).

    I'm not sure what the endgame is here. At some stage large Comex margin increases defeat the EE's purpose by diminishing volumes (and thus the degree of control they exert over the market), increasing deliveries and driving speculators into physical.

    And of course 'raiding' the market in an environement when there are a meaningful number of parties seeking delivery is just handing them the physical metal.

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  71. mythblasters; that's a great question. I would assume WB and her/his gang have some idea and they are watching their step

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  72. Thank you SBGrandpa.. I had always thought the miners were just closely pegged to the manipulation in the physical market.. .but this earlier post from tacktie got me to wondering if there was something more the EE was doing to suppress miners:

    "...I wish the mining stocks were confirming a little better to give greater confidence. I suspect EE finds them easier to contain, create divergences and non confirmations to sow seeds of doubt on this move..."

    Anyway.. I guess I'm misunderstanding that.. but I understood it to imply that the EE can and does manipulate the miner prices separate and apart from the physical.

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  73. I've been buying physical and also doing some paper trading. Hopefully I'll make a decent profit here in the next week or two and take my gains and run. So, I'll be paying some taxes on this profit (estimate 25%). Question is, do I leave this 25% sitting in a bank account somewhere collecting dust or do I use it to buy more physical?

    Since I've been a buyer (rather than a seller) of physical, does anyone have any links or information to point me into the right direction?

    ie. lets say I buy 30k worth of silver american eagles right now. Silver doubles to 60k and I want to sell some...(30k worth). I imagine I would have to pay taxes on it, but would like confirmation.

    Thanks.

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  74. Rui: Yes, Wynter they didn't have their financing act together and had liquidate in November. Now they claim they do, and swear they are hitting Blythe hard in the last days of February.

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  75. Gentlemen, would anyone here be truly shocked if there were some sort of "terrorist attack" in the near future? We must be vigilant.

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  76. So,to be clear here . . .

    from what I'm reading, if I were to bid long on the Comex at any reasonable price (dip or no), and stand for delivery at the end of the month . . . then I could be offered 20-30% to settle in fiat cashola?

    Is this a way for the Fed to feed inflation to the economy or something? This sounds too good to be true, it's like a gold mine.

    Ahem.

    ReplyDelete
  77. Benjamin, Obama may come out declaring taking physical delivery @ CRIMEX is an act of terrorism and amend it into the PATRIOT ACT.

    All joking aside I won't put anything past US government.

    ReplyDelete
  78. Benjamin,
    Not only do I think an attack of some sort is possible.. I believe it to be probable in the days ahead. My own personal belief is that it will occur before the next US presidential election. I haven't assigned a belief to what I think the nature of this attack will be. It could as likely be some sort of economic attack (which is already happening actually) ..or it could be something else that acts as a catalyst to 'prompt' the powers that be to take actions 'for our own good'. The shock to me will be if there is not an attack of some sort within the next 1 1/2 years. It's what they need afterall. America be damned.

    ReplyDelete
  79. What is everyones take on wynters post tonight?
    OI real or not?

    ReplyDelete
  80. @CD... force majeure does not cover failures resulting from a party's financial condition or negligence, so not sure they could claim it in a court of law... and if they were able to forfeit in that way, the end result doesn't serve the EE's interests.

    ReplyDelete
  81. I have my fingers ready to buy a few hundred more ounces. I've been ready for a week now. Something about this trading makes me hesitant. I'm already massively long physical, so I'm not in a hurry, I think I'll keep hoping for a pullback due to this being opex week.

    ReplyDelete
  82. Ginger, as sick and wrong as that all sounds...unfortunately, it's probably what's going to happen. I think it's safe to stamp your post for the record and if it happens it's not because it was statistically bound to happen, but rather a planned event to take actions "for our own good". It's sad, but that's how they roll.

    ReplyDelete
  83. Jason, yes, you have to pay taxes when you sell physical silver. According to the guvmint. However, the sale is not necessarily reported to the feds. Right now, the shop (or whoever you sell to) has to report it to the irs automatically if it is over $10,000. If it is less, they don't. The tax liability is up to you . . . but what the government doesn't know about, they cannot steal.

    This is where people can get into trouble. The government already monitors all credit card transactions, as needed. Consider any electronic transaction something the feds would find. eBay, credit cards, debit cards, checks, etc.

    But, like anything else, if you get a shop to pay you cash, and it's less than 10K, well . . . you would be a responsible citizen and report that on your tax forms, right? Of course you would! Wink, wink, nudge, nudge. And this is why people are freaking out so much about all the 1099 form nonsense in the Healthcare bill. Suddenly the 10K limit would be $600. Paper silver is a whole nuther ball of wax, tho. Tread carefully.

    ReplyDelete
  84. @CD
    Or China is called on its swap position due to these shenanigns and THEY default and good luck WB et al. getting paid off.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/08/31/china-derivatives-idUSSP47327420090831

    ReplyDelete
  85. Splodeydope,

    I bookmarked this awhile back and it seems to contradict what you just said. I'm not saying that you're wrong or right. Thoughts?

    http://silverstockreport.com/2007/silver_is_untaxable.html

    ReplyDelete
  86. Harvey Organ records the open interest every day on his site. Just check his archives.

    ReplyDelete
  87. Can’t buy-in Turd…

    IF BM is fucked (and if we both known it then it’s obviously not a secret), THEN why hasn’t there been any kind of negative reaction in JPM share price? After all, isn’t all public information calculated into a stock's current share price?

    ReplyDelete
  88. If COMEX can't deliver the silver on the 28th, will there be an immediate collapse in the paper price of silver as investors realize it's not actually worth anything?

    Trying to figure out when I should stop messing around with AGQ

    ReplyDelete
  89. Back in 1980 when they busted Hunter brothers silver positions, they went so brazen that at the heat of the moment they allowed sell orders only to send the price down to deliver crushing margin call on HBs. This game could get that rigged so don't take an easy route to EE defeat for granted.

    ReplyDelete
  90. Turd,

    I understand, and I dont dare talk about price, becuase I have no idea.

    I did want to iterate that that comex (the shorts) wont default until the ultimate shit hits the fan. And at that point, will it even matter?

    I'm NOT a silver trader, so all I can do is RTFM, but the manual has so many cash-out alternatives that someone, somewhere, would put up the physical (everyone has their price, right?). And if the shorts really are the PDs, then they have no problem getting the cash.

    You may have caught the ZH article where JPM claimed trading gains on 96% of their days in the last year? These guys have their shit covered (legally or not). I'm all about being "right", which we are, but you shouldn't fight city hall in their courtyard.

    While the fundamentals are sound, I still sell my stuff when it "looks good", and buy it back when it "looks bad" cause it's going to be a battle all the way.

    As you've said, this is NOT a place for leverage. You've also said that when things "look good" to watch out for a massive push back.

    The other side of me says things will come to a head soon...

    WIT/Brent is pushing 16$. Which one will catch up? Look at the WTI futures curve for an idea.
    Agro is continuing into the stratosphere.
    Riots are erupting allover the world where food is a major part of the average citizens' expense.
    SPY is marching off a cliff.
    Shit head in charge puts up a 1.5t deficit, expecting 50% increase in revenues to save us in the next few years.

    Hell I dont know, just buy everything and hope some of it retains value :)

    ReplyDelete
  91. On 2/25/2010

    There was 1737 delivery notices on silver

    OI was 3752

    Inventory dealer 48.77M and customer(eligible) 60.14M total= 108.91M

    So now OI march 59851. 4192452M4 dealer, 60610739M for a total of = 102535263M

    ReplyDelete
  92. We've only peeled back 6M ounces since last Feb.
    OI is huge and 1737 or so should request delivery. anymore and it is investment demand.
    Blythe has to get 58K of OI to roll or take cash

    ReplyDelete
  93. pretty good theatre no?

    Warren Buffett - for those that read his autobiography, remember he was bailed out in the early 80's by the gov't & is forever indebted for otherwise, probably would've been wiped out.

    Hecla - they're involved in some litigation and expect a settlement.

    http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=63202&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1529393&highlight=

    As for comparisons to November's OI, I'm reminded of WB has said - they noticed if they stuck around they'd get a good premium so why not keep doing it over and over for ever higher premiums? And if more and more players stand for delivery and with money on the table, it would probably take a much higher price to shake those standing and of those that remain, likely the bigger players, a nice cash premium is very likely again be in the works.

    Final note, EE surely must have a plan laid out well in advance. Some good theories - margin hikes, stock market crash, raising silver price enough to reduce OI, convincing holders to rollover with whatever incentive, etc.

    Anyways, this armchair quarterback is enjoying the scene, popcorn in hand.

    ReplyDelete
  94. @Tyler,

    Me too trying to figure out what to do..Currently doing some paper trading, and thinking if paper silver hits 35 I might take my paper profits and convert them to physical, or do I wait until 40? If not 40, then when? Don't want to be caught with paper when it all of a sudden it becomes worthless.

    ReplyDelete
  95. Turd,
    regarding that debka article you posted, I see that no-one has made any comment.

    That's obviously because we all follow your rules and limit the discussion to PMs :)

    ReplyDelete
  96. caramel, another theory about JPMs's back-up plan:

    JPM sells copper in size, sending base metals and PMs down hard, triggering stops and black-box algo selling.

    JPM gets a profit from its copper position, and covers some silver shorts.

    It might explain why JPM bought more than half of the LME's copper inventory:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/8180304/JP-Morgan-revealed-as-mystery-trader-that-bought-1bn-worth-of-copper-on-LME.html

    ReplyDelete
  97. How much damage do you think Blythe could do tomorrow? During FUTF vs FUBM battle the low was 30.29. Think Blythe has enough firepower to push the price even lower tomorrow, or do you think that a low of 30.29 is all she's got?

    ReplyDelete
  98. Turd.. how bout email opt in?
    I dont use RSS

    ReplyDelete
  99. Turdle: I posted it because when the Israel For. Min. mentioned this today, the PMs got an immediate boost.

    ReplyDelete
  100. Thanks Turd. A little lasting "flight to safety" will be an added bonus, on top of the fundamentals, and COMEX shenanigans.

    ReplyDelete
  101. Jason: Predicting short term market moves is like flipping a coin. No one knows.

    Buy physical and get rid of the paper.

    ReplyDelete
  102. Hilarious. To say this, there must really be a problem looming.

    CPM Group: Reports Of Physical Silver Shortages ‘Limited’

    http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20110216DeC_CPM.html

    ReplyDelete
  103. This is off topic but hopefully someone might be able to assist me. I am looking for a broker that will allow me to take physical possession of stock certificates and will allow a non US citizen (I am Australian)to open an account. The blog is excellent being informative and entertaining. Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  104. Jack,

    Just bought some physical and am waiting for delivery. Doing some paper trading so I can buy more physical once silver hits 31+.

    ReplyDelete
  105. Jack: Jeff Christian, who runs CPM Group, is ex-Goldman Sachs - surprise, surprise.

    If there was plentiful supply of Silver, CPM Group would be talking up shortages, to help the EE fleece retail investors.

    ReplyDelete
  106. Just in case you don't read Jesse:

    "In 1997, Blythe Masters headed a small team of economists at J.P. Morgan bank which developed the concept of the Credit Default Swaps as a means of insuring loans. This has led to Masters being described by the UK newspaper The Guardian as "the woman who invented financial weapons of mass destruction." In April 2010 Masters told the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament that "there are definitely lessons that have to be learnt. I for one feel that I have learnt from that experience and there are things I may like to have seen done differently". She regretted that J. Robert Oppenheimer had already used the quote from the Bhagavad-Gita about Shiva, destroyer of worlds, as it was a good fit for this go round as well.

    Blythe is also the head of commodity trading at JPM, and was reponsible for heavy losses last year at the firm. JPM does not specifically disclose its short positions in the silver market, which are rumoured to be 'quite substantial,' 'almost as unsteady as Britney Spears,' and 'about as far underwater as the Titanic.' "

    http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

    Just ponder these words again, and wonder whether she may need to repeat them soon:
    "there are things I may like to have seen done differently".

    ReplyDelete
  107. Jason, Tyler,
    My post from Monday:
    Turd,
    That 2yr Au trading range (and 150 DMA) is looking as good as gold, no? Price keeps kissing the lower channel and snapping back. Driving via rear-view mirror, but...trend's your friend until it ain't.

    Spencer, Stan,
    I trade AGQ and DGP, but I invest in physical. Remember...you're dealing with the devil with these funds (Harrimans, Bushies, IG Farben, etc) so I wouldn't stay in them for any length of time. Personally, I use them for intermediate scalps (weeks, months). When I get stopped out: paper profits to cash and cash to physical. My own little personal physical collection machine uses their leverage, plus 3 bonuses. 1) The funds are likely being used by TPTB to unwind 4+ decades of Au price manipulation, allowing me time to accumulate physical. 2) I end up buying physical on the dips. 3) Sell the paper funds to pay the tax man his fiat.
    I Fester

    ReplyDelete
  108. We need silver to smash that $31.20 resistance level. Once it does there is nothing but blue skies.

    ReplyDelete
  109. CO_Dan: Your post about OI being high as of mid-November made me curious about what happened to the price of silver in that time period. I looked at a historical chart, and it appears that the price rose to $28.50 or so on 9 November, then declined to about $25.30 on 17 Nov (BM attacks?), after which it rose again.

    So maybe that means that higher silver prices convinced the longs to roll last November. If it worked out that way again this month, it would be fine by me ...

    ReplyDelete
  110. My vote goes with OI number will be "seasonally adjusted due to snow" like unemployment numbers. The only way to counter a fuzzy OI number is to have one or two groups hold more contracts than what's available in COMEX.

    Example. COMEX has 60.61 million oz. My buddy and I have contracts for 80 million or 100 million oz. Then COMEX will have to show their hand. The key is my buddy and me are "first hand information."

    ReplyDelete
  111. What will happen is that there will be a series of fake heists on the Comex warehouses just before delivery or a fraud will come to light in which all the physical Silver that was due for delivery (which they did not have) has been stolen or replaced with something else.May sound really far fetched,however we are dealing with some of the most slippery characters whoose only ethics are to make profit and rig the market for decades,they see the market as their own playing field where they make the official and unofficial rules.Don,t know about anyone else but the financial markets at the moment appear to have an unreal air about them as is something big is waiting to happen,something else could well happen in the next 7 days.

    ReplyDelete
  112. Lets stand for delivery .. all of us

    http://standfordelivery.com/stand.php

    ReplyDelete
  113. So won't Blythe attack any more?

    ReplyDelete
  114. Bloated naked short bmers of the jpig morgue! Stickin a fork in it!! It's over!! Hi ho silver away!!

    ReplyDelete
  115. PS! I took delivery of more silver eagles Monday!! I've strictly accumulated silver eagles for years! Last 2 Thurdays/FRYday 1; we've had outside day reversals on all b-mers raids!! Today & FRYday should be no different!! I say we see one last push down, this OEX trading of 2 days left! Index OEX today and all others FRYday! I'd be extremely surprised to see a break below 29.50; even so? If a break below it will reverse in whiplash fashion, as all naked shorts jpig, pilot fish, and the like leap frog cover stampede into the next month! The jpig, is gettin fork stuck bloodied, to a pulp fiction of ponzi fraud, of every irredeemable piece of paper the squid circulates. Every US righteous citizen left, who knows the constitutional definition of real money gold/silver! Lies of bankster fraudsters end when? When the truth is self evident!! The constitution is an inspired document of wisdom; intelligence, & truth irrevocable!! The puny hands raised in CONgress/SINate, to invalidate it, are as ludicrous as if voting out the law of gravity!! Let the vermin mofo's climb the tower of babble paper ponzi and take the flyin leap to hell!! Every last traitorous rat bastard one!! rat bastards seeking to establish their own form of righteousness! A form which is contrary to the nature of happiness and it's pursuit; unencumbered! Free pursuit; by the people; for the people; we the people! Now and forever free so help us God!!

    ReplyDelete
  116. "If anything, we're actually lagging slightly BEHIND November at the moment."

    Just a thought from a spectator, a large contingent of spreaders evacuated. This would help purify the numbers standing for delivery.

    One thing counting against this movement might be that people who roll will bag the spread between the contracts. In backwardation you are in essence paid for the roll. I never really play with this much back when I arbed wti\brent a few years back. I always wondered however if it was worth the effort to jump in to a contract at the last minute, just to grab the roll.

    ReplyDelete
  117. "What will happen is that there will be a series of fake heists on the Comex warehouses just before delivery or a fraud will come to light in which all the physical Silver that was due for delivery (which they did not have) has been stolen or replaced with something else"

    OR... perhaps they had a secret cache or delivery from the miners we don't know about and will deliver all that physical as requested and keep saying that they have plenty. It would certainly quell the riot for a while as some pause to reconsider this strategy...

    ReplyDelete
  118. Silvergoldsilver is calling a FUTF to 29.52 by Friday

    "Oky doky, Let the Battle Begin! If I'm a betting man, which I am, I can see a raid to $29.52 silver, only to bounce back like a mother fucker to round out the reverse head and shoulders chart pattern. I am not a big chart pattern guy, but I can see a raid by Friday to those levels-this will be the day we will accumulate more"

    http://silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com/


    Bring it on Blythe

    ReplyDelete
  119. Strippers are on stage, silver has wood.

    ReplyDelete
  120. WB has decided to stand for delivery and seriously doubts the veracity of the OI numbers.

    Be sure to check the 2 new posts at Yahoo

    ReplyDelete
  121. C'mon, Blythe. Bring it.
    We're waiting...

    ReplyDelete
  122. Question:
    The raids and counter-raids on the daily charts always seem like knock-out punchs, i.e. big vertical ups then big vertical downs.
    Is this always the case or do we not see behind the scenes smaller punches and counter punch, and the tape appears flat even though there may be lots of flurries?
    I guess the answer to my own question would be being able to see the volumes. Anyone here do that?

    ReplyDelete
  123. Pat, netdania shows volume.

    Go to

    http://www.netdania.com/Products/live-streaming-currency-exchange-rates/real-time-forex-charts/FinanceChart.aspx

    On the Instruments menu, select spot silver.

    On the View menu, select show/hide volume.

    ReplyDelete
  124. Pat: EE raids are intended to be haymakers. The idea is to drop price so quickly as to set off sell stops in rapid succession, thereby increasing the effectiveness of the raid. In the past, decent raids would bring on a cascading level of selling that many refer to as "waterfalls" or "downdrafts".
    What we are seeing now is resolute longs who do not have sell stops in. The BoS even seems to have limit-type orders waiting at certain, pre-determined support levels.
    This has always been the main weapon of the EE and it is rapidly losing its effectiveness.

    ReplyDelete
  125. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/surging-gold-demand-%E2%80%9Cglobal-phenomenon%E2%80%9D-chinese-demand-silver-%E2%80%9Cvoracious%E2%80%9D

    Surging Gold Demand a “Global Phenomenon” - Chinese Demand for Silver “Voracious”

    Israeli comments led to dollar weakness and gold, silver and oil rallying yesterday. The Israeli government described the Iranian warships move into the Suez canal as a “provocation” and hinted at a possible response.

    ReplyDelete
  126. as i stated on ZH...

    LOL, wait until those poor Asian saps learn they can't wipe their asses with gold and silver. They'll be back, Ben.

    ReplyDelete
  127. Read the full story on Zero Hedge (above). Check out the massive silver volumes imported by China.

    Jeff Christian, you fucking bankster shill vomit-bag...

    ReplyDelete
  128. "Jeff Christian, you fucking bankster shill vomit-bag..."

    right on, sumo

    ReplyDelete
  129. Come on Blythe...lets see what you've got today. So far, not impressed.

    ReplyDelete
  130. I'll remain impressed until price remains over $31.

    ReplyDelete
  131. http://alturl.com/9vw9u - this is also funny thing. Looks like arabian guys are selling oil threw Europe and not USA anymore..

    ReplyDelete
  132. According to the ZH article, "Zhou said there was also voracious demand for silver, with ICBC bank alone selling about 13 tonnes of physical silver in January alone, compared with 33 tonnes in the whole of 2010."

    That's one bank selling ~450,000oz of silver in ONE MONTH! That's astounding.

    ReplyDelete
  133. Turd :

    Keep an eye on that as well :

    http://nachrichtensammlung.blogspot.com/2011/02/marktmanipulationen.html

    Not only Silver is manipulated...

    ReplyDelete
  134. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/its-official-iran-says-it-will-send-2-warships-through-suez-canal

    head fake or the real deal?

    ReplyDelete
  135. @ Marvin. Dude, everything is manipulated. Stock Market, Interest Rates, Unemployment rates, CPI, PPI, Bank Balance Sheets, Growth Rate.....

    ReplyDelete
  136. head fake, caramel

    http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/asia/110217/iran-suez-canal-israel-warships-egypt

    "Iran cancels plan to sail warships through Suez Canal
    Iran's "provocative" plan to sail two warships through the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean have been canceled, an Egyptian official said."

    ReplyDelete
  137. FWIW, today is the fifth trading day since WB's "Supernova" post last week. The "Supernova" event was supposed to occur within 5 days of that post.

    ReplyDelete
  138. Excellent analysis and comments. As usual.

    Can't wait to see how things play out today and tomorrow.

    Buona fortuna!

    ReplyDelete
  139. Co_Dan ... the leader said "trading days" and "latest Friday" ... patience my friend!

    ReplyDelete
  140. Hmm..possibly a London PM smack down in the works? Let's see what BM has in store for 10am...

    ReplyDelete
  141. Cotton up 3% already this morning ..... if I decide to take physical delivery, should I put it in a safe?

    ReplyDelete
  142. Looks like stair stepping action every 10-15 cents on the spot market. 30.60 30.70ish - 30.80 ish testing 30.90

    ReplyDelete
  143. Sorry I didn't respond Patrick, went to bed at a decent hour for once.

    Actually, the article says what I said, with a lot of confusing stuff thrown in.

    My 1st sentence: 'Jason, yes, you have to pay taxes when you SELL physical silver.'

    The webpage you referenced states: 'In the U.S. there are capital gains taxes on dollar gains of silver owned.'

    AND:

    'Therefore, people who sell silver have the ability to not report such capital gains, and easily escape such taxation. But I would certainly never advise people to break the law.'

    That means if you hold physical silver (for longer than a year) AND YOU THEN SELL IT, you are liable for a capital gains collectible tax rate of 28%. You can hold on to your physical silver for 20 years and you won't be taxed, year to year. The second you sell it, no matter when, you are liable for capital gains. That's the law.

    The reason the article seems confusing is because it says everyone has the ABILITY to avoid paying taxes on silver . . . because it's easy not to tell Uncle Sam what you sold.

    If you want to know more, google 'collectible tax rate' or 'capital gains' and be prepared to be shocked. They aren't pretty.

    ReplyDelete
  144. Needless to say, I'm having a bit of a busy day.
    I'll try to have an update for you by 3:00 EST.
    Keep checking back.

    ReplyDelete
  145. we must beware the muslim brotherhood. they steal pms

    ReplyDelete
  146. norm macdonald called. wants his ugly mug back

    ReplyDelete
  147. let me explain backwardation to you. you will soon realize why his name is what it is? after he bends you over. he is the back door man

    ReplyDelete
  148. Turd-sickle !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    DUDE.........What are you doing here ?????
    Disseminating cocaine to a bunch of blow hounds.? My God man this blog you created has gone viral !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    All kidding aside man congratulations on your success you are a good man.
    Yo ! Get some more "pay by click ads" on your site, I am sure everyone will help you pay some bills "wink wink" so you dont have to clean toilets anymore.....................LOL!
    I have bookmarked your blog and will be visiting frequently.
    Kudos to you and see you at the ZH !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  149. This Wynter Benton Group says, rumors of course, that they got 80% premium on their contracts not to take delivery of silver.

    If anybody is getting any kind of premium on a contract not to take delivery.......isn't that the easiest money to be made. No real risk if you know you got em over a barrel.

    How can this be true.....and if it is, how long before every millionaire in town is doing the same thing. How long can that game last.

    I confused.

    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete
  152. He attempted to complete an English/Irish Derby where he met Rackethall Jet once more. But he was beaten into second place by Judicial Pride in the final.Following the Irish Derby, White decided to rest the dog for seven months. Rapid Ranger's return came at the Brighton & Hove Greyhound Stadium where he placed second to Droopys Vieri, who went on to knock Ranger out of the 2001 Scottish Derby in the second round.
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