While printing off your updated charts, it suddenly dawned on me. If Blythe wants to spend
a few million dollars trying to convince everyone that yesterday didn't happen, then fine, it didn't. But if that's the case, then I'm going to spend
one dollar on a small vial of Bic Multi-Purpose White-Out. Take that!
It would seem only fair to honor Blythe by playing by her rules once again and wiping yesterday completely off of the hourly charts. Hmmm. What do we have left? How about this?
Well, that's not so scary, now is it? Looks like a perfectly fine chart to me. Shows the same old consistent, stair-shaped accumulation pattern that has been so good to us in the past. Thanks, Blythe! I know I'm going to sleep a lot better tonight knowing that the silver chart looks so darn bullish.
Now, I wonder what a little W-O would do for the gold chart? Well, well, well. Looky here:
Wow, that suddenly looks quite friendly, too. Six straight days of consistent buying has led us from 1360 all the way to 1400 with no real end in sight yet. Thanks, Blythe, for making this so clear!
So rest well, my friends. Our dear Wicked Witch has done us a great favor! Our rallies are obviously still intact and, in the unfortunate event that the metals begin to roll over, we now have clear exit points below 32 and 1390.
Again, thanks for all the help, Blythe.
Love ya, babe. Nite nite. See you tomorrow. TF
The new Battle of Kursk will rage all week.
ReplyDeleteThe good guys will win.
Ding dong, the witch is dead, the wicked witch is dead!
ReplyDeleteSorry, Turd, but I don't know what your second sentence refers to. I guess I missed something earlier?
ReplyDeleteTurd I laughed out loud at this post!! That was absolutely brilliant.
ReplyDeleteThe IB charting software I use has the option of in/excluding 'after hours' data in the candles. Silver was looking a bit bearish, but after seeing your post I tried excluding the overnight trades and whatdyaknow - it's a great big bull all the way!
Thanks once again - This will be the first good nights sleep I get in days. Seriously.
:D
EWC58
ReplyDeleteI like your analogy. (Don't know if anyone saw my first comment. It was when I was talking to myself on an old thread)
The first one lasted nearly two weeks and was a very close call. I guess we'll know the outcome of this one in the next three days, though?
@oldNavy - the money spent by the EE issuing unbacked shorts on Monday in various non-US markets and Tue AM on the COMEX to suppress the silver/gold price? Unless your comment itself is a joke I am missing...
ReplyDeleteTurd and Hyde, sorry guys, it looks like the database, called miningpedia, was abandoned some time ago. I found this entry referencing it...
ReplyDelete***
Jason Hommel attempted something like this 4 years back with Miningpedia.com
Long story short is that a ton of work went into it and it didn't work out in the end, though that may be due to conflict between him and the lead programmer.
If you are a member you can look through over 80 pages covering the development at jasonhommelforum.com, though I don't think that forum accepts new members anymore, and most of the people originally involved no longer participate, including Jason and the programmer.
Just a caution that you have a lofty goal of making something like this work. Many kudos to you if you do.
***
News from The Mogambo Bunker...
ReplyDeleteChris Waltzek posted a new interview with Richard Daughty, aka The Mogambo Guru. Always a fun listen. Of sorts:
http://radio.goldseek.com/nuggets.php
CD
ReplyDeleteThanks. No, I am afraid I am not that clever. I was just being honestly dense. :-0
Thanks ewe58 - I love Mogambo !
ReplyDeleteThanks Turd! You cheered me up after all the action today.
ReplyDeleteYesterday I had a looooong time old friend of mine from high school call me up and ask me about silver. He got in at about $34 with a purchase from APMEX. It's kind of a kick in the nuts when just hours after he ordered it get one of the biggest attacks of all time. But I am absolutely believe that silver is going to be the greatest investment of his lifetime!
So anybody have any insight as to what the Andrew Mcguire announcement is going to be on Max Keiser later in the week? 2 weeks from Feb 10 = ~Feb 24. It's not like we don't have enough fires burning on silver eh?
ReplyDeleteHere's the Feb 10 video.
haha great charts -- I had to look at them twice before I saw where you went to town on them with the white out!
ReplyDeleteThis is the make or break week for Wynter... We'll know if they were full of crap based on the rest of the week.
Wow, ewc58, so we are already done with Stalingrad? HOHO, I don't know tho hope so. I'm still cautiously optimistic as I don't expect EE to go away quietly. Gotta have a few more rounds of drama ahead.
ReplyDelete@oldNavy - If you were following the overnight silver trading action on the stat holiday weekend (like i was.. in bed.. from my hotel room in Montreal.. on my iphone... on my valentines get-away wwith my girl sleeping beside me... sad) then you saw it creep up from ~32 all the way to ~34-and-change ... but then the EE raids eerily brought it down back to the Friday close... it was as if it was all some video game and somebody hit the reset button... creepy indeed.
ReplyDeleteWhat Turd did in the charts above was blank-out that action from the chart to get (i believe) a better picture of the trend. Nice...
flaunt,
ReplyDeleteWB considers a "draw" if silver is between 33 - 37. Well.... let's hope she/he/it can do something in the next couple days.
But you know what... even if the price collapses and she/he/it takes delivery - enough to drain the silver swamp, then I'd consider that a success.
Dave,
ReplyDeleteYou may have spoiled one night with her watching your iphone, but she stays up late 364 nights a year watching re-runs of General Hospital. I'd say what's one night?! :) And besides, you are being her "protector/provider" and sometimes cavemen need to go fight wild boars on holidays.
Old Navy, I'm right with ya
ReplyDelete2010 equaled late '42: the Krauts lose the Sixth Army at Stalingrad. Blythe loses control. The May CFTC hearing was the back breaker. From then on, both sets of Nazi's are driven further back, although still deadly in the fighting retreat.
Seems to me that 2011 is '43/'44: The Nazi's last big offensive was the artillery and tank slugfest at Kursk. As you point out, a 2 week marathon of death and destruction that still boggles the mind in it's scale and fury. The battle decided the ultimate outcome on the Eastern front.
And just like it was lowly Russian infantry who wound up being decisive when they got in among German Tigers and dumped gasoline in their engine intakes (and then machine-gunned the crews trying to escape the flames), it will be all of us little PM buy-and-holders around the world who'll wind up tipping the balance this time around.
Ok, some of them happen to be Asian and Arab billion and trillionaires and hedgies going by the name WB.
Hey, at minimum, it made a good story :-0)
Blythe and her ilk are just building sand barriers where the surf has retreated.........right before the tsunami hits. When will it hit......who knows, but it is coming. Actually Turd might know, as he is obviously a witch! :-)
ReplyDeleteHaha, oops, next time I should read the text before clicking on the charts. I was looking at Turd's chart, and looking at my chart feed, and was like... weird, mine looks different. Then I started adjusting the time/frequency to try to make it look like his, and it just wouldn't quite align. Spent about 3 minutes on this scratching my head.. haha.
ReplyDeleteI just came across this.
ReplyDeletehttp://goldharvest.blogspot.com/
Very interesting take on the short squeeze
How can BM even have a job after all of this? If I was in the position to make a company money and all I did was lose in both paper and physical, you'd think I would've been replaced months and months ago! I suppose JPMs position in copper might help mitigate the pain, but ffs, how does she still have a job?!
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteSorry I was writeing fast.
ReplyDeleteF, it flatlined because there was a US Federal holiday yesterday. Global markets traded, but the US was closed until last night, hence all the overnight BM drama.
ReplyDeletelindenflash,
ReplyDeleteShe is safe (for now) because JPM owns the Fed and she's effectively leading US government monetary policy. Don't forget, any losses JPM incurs will just be sloughed off onto you and I. All their losses are essentially underwritten- - what do we think TARP and the QE's are about? Like Mubarak, she'll eventually outlive her time and/or usefulness and be drummed out of the spotlight in shame. Until then she's giving commands to Ruprecht and the Morgue Monkeys.
The US "Govt" in the form of Treasury does the bidding of the Fed, a private, closely held enterprise whose largest shareholder is the Morgue. Bear these facts in mind as this thing plays out and you may see things with even more clarity. Don't confuse which end really wags the dog. Hey wait a sec, I love dogs...
I dont know if had anything to do with it , I'm a relatively new guy. but that dam Kit co chart flat lined for a few hours yesterday, I know most of you use different live charts so you may not have noticed.
ReplyDeleteI hate to say this, but the fact that wall st got hacked last week in conjunction with what Turd is saying, and the fact that the charts were stuck in limbo makes me feel like this isnt a fair game on a level playing field.
I don't know. It strikes me as odd.
And the fact that they might be able to get as much as they need from the US mint on request.
My Spidey senses are tingling
ewc58 & oldNavy
ReplyDeleteInteresting you guys have been talking Battle of Kursk all day. I was thinking similar lines only I came up Battle of the Bulge instead. Nazi's/Blythe throw every kitchen sink they can find into one last ditch effort. And even though you know it's their last gasp, it doesn't make it any less deadly and horrifying. Maybe more so...
Turd, Can I make you my shrink?
ReplyDeleteTo all who are scratching their heads about why their mining stocks turned so ugly today: Look at the Dow. Never, ever forget that mining stocks are STOCKS!
ReplyDeleteDr. Turd. I like that.
ReplyDeleteThe Doctor is in!
Your prescription is a shot of tequila, a beer and a handful of May $35 calls.
So I imagine all the other live charts must have flat-lined too I guess.
ReplyDeletenot challenging just inquiring
F: Kitco flatlined at 4:00 or so yesterday when the Globex closed for two hours. When it re-opened, silver traded to 34.34 before the EE began to ruthlessly attack.
ReplyDeleteBAM ! - 32.96 on a small dip...
ReplyDeleteTurd, did you see the video of you and Trader Dan getting some respect? See his blog.
ReplyDeleteThanks, got it.
ReplyDeleteWow, ewc58 -- that was a very vivid image. It's funny, that particular vulnerability of WWII tankss was used by the street fighters in 1956 against the Russians in Budapest, and the Russian heavy cav was initially withdrawn. The problem was, a few weeks later the next generation up-armored T-series was brought in (and a lot more of them)... We saw what happpened that time (funny Suez crisis at that time, too).
ReplyDeleteWhile cheering the ongoing events, I have a foreboding of what other strange and deadly tools may pop out of Blythe's arsenal.
PS: Captcha text - compwar. How fitting.
I'm listening to Santa's TRE AGM address - fascinating stuff:
ReplyDeleteTo access the audio webcast of the Company's Annual General Meeting held on February 25, 2010, please click the following
link:http://w.on24.com/r.htm?e=193670&s=1&k=CF374A2EAA85E770756B73D70560FA75
@JWMJR - read up on Wynter Benton (yahoo forums, JPM ticker group). Yup, the rumor/conspiracy theory is definitely out there - has been for a while. Some speculate pissed off ex-traders, perhaps it's the Chinese buyers of size, perhaps it's Bill Winters (ex-JPM co-CEO) - it may in truth be all of the above + the small investor following the call of Krieger/Kaiser to crash JPM by buying physical.
ReplyDeleteTurdle, I like it!!
ReplyDeleteand this is helpful:
ReplyDeletehttp://1.bp.blogspot.com/-I-zfXQ1c_Ns/TWRE1vyKpAI/AAAAAAAAAFw/qnSdAK8CAh0/s1600/snapshot-430.png
Turd, I asked Dan but hasn't responded - Does today's action eliminate the possibility of a commercial signal failure?
ReplyDeleteturd, you do a good summary. you have a good way of understanding and relaying the action.
ReplyDeleteI wanted to chime in real quick. I said last time I was posting no more. I have to b/c I can't give me away.
Today was extraordinary! I want to say something, then will stay in the background unitl more comes:
First of all, the attempt today was extreme. All efforts were put on the table. It was an attack of sorts that I have never seen tried before. I will mention that I am very pleased with todays action and now I KNOW that others are joining in. BM went all in and no one would bite. Silver is strong. This is very good news.
Second, there is MASSIVE amounts of metal heading to China. I can't tell you how much this matters, because now there is no alternative. She must push paper calls. This will continue. China's feng dom's are buying at an unprecedented rate.
别小看我們
The banks are in superb trouble.
Things are going well. Take physical people.
good night.
The Battle of the Bulge was decisive in terms of the turning of the Western front to the favor of the Allies and the USA.
ReplyDeleteThe Battle of Kursk was the Eastern front battle with many lessons for war.
Here's some lessons that I can discern from the Battle (comments from others appreciated).
1. Nazi blitzkrieg tactics failed due to the delays of Hitler wanting more weapons at the front. As Hitler delayed the offensive, it allowed the Soviet Red Army to dig in and build stronger defenses.
By analogy, the longs are driving the silver and gold battle right now. The shorts are in defense and selling is evaporating because of it. If JPMC/BearST/BM are still sucking wind with a short position, the math is going to push them out of position as time moves forward.
There are some who have stated that they will roll from March to May contracts. If you have their fiat money on the table and you can seize it now, you should take it now.
The offensive operations can not and should halt due to a need by some politico to take a time out.
I don't frigging care if Blythe is sleepy or not. The bastards at JPMC are alleged to be up all night. The human body can run for about 36 hours max...that's now...and when I look at the silver chart 24 HOUR SPOT SILVER (BID) at Kitco, the chart has fallen flat in night hours. The battle has temporarily ceased and the players are weak in both directions. Both camps have expended resources.
2. Numerical superiority -
The Soviets had numerical superiority even if the Germans had higher caliber tanks and firepower.
JPMC clearly has the backing of the US Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve Bank. By these relationships, incredible political and financial firepower can be brought upon any target. However, if you review the wiki article on the Battle of Kursk, you will see a compelling testimony. The story was that German tanks were outstripping the ability of the infantry to support. In the end, the tanks were having to go it alone and became prey to a numerically superior but hardware deficient Red Army. In many ways, the trading desks can not compete with the plethora of trading platforms which are revolutionizing the world economy.
Tonight on EBay 1 ounce silver American Eagle coins are going for $38.00 an ounce. 1 ounce gold American Eagle is going for 1455.00.
So, which platform sets the conversion price JPMC? Blythe? are you hearing me?
You can not possibly expect to control ALL of the trading spots on the planet. It is not possible.
It is better to not slaughter the sheep when you find a way to shave the wool and be warm for another winter.
F said...Field Marshall Max Von Keiser has been recruiting the small investors by the boatload.
ReplyDeleteLittle by little they been picking the shelves clean like ants on a carcass. This is something Wall cant understand. They cant understand the buying frenzy when the TV says the stock market is good and were in recovery . They dont get it.
Or they can ignore it at their own peril . But week by week were doing our part , 10,000 + small investors buying a 5,10, 20 oz every week is going to add up .Probably 50,000 oz a week minimum
Just like the Germans in Russia , the sheer weight of numbers is crushing and demoralizing.
Can you imagine the stress levels of the dark queen? Up all night fighting off the barbarian hordes , Sooner or later she is going to make a fatal mistake.
Stuey: First, thanks for the compliment.
ReplyDeleteYour input is much appreciated here. Don't stay away too long!
oops...error in posting...
ReplyDeleteThe offensive operations can not and should NOT halt due to a need by some politico to take a time out.
If you have them on the run, chase them in the night, chase them in the day, do not stop seizing their territory at any time.
If this is really about liberty and freedom, the issue should be clear. We will not accept a fiat currency system which is predicated on a lie and debt. We, as citizens, will only accept money that has basis and is tangible.
Silver is going grass roots ,The people are discovering a way to protect themselves and strike back at the thieves.
ReplyDeleteA must watch video:
ReplyDeleteMANIPULATION FAILS, METALS SPIKE & CEO ANDY SCHECTMAN
Subscribe to his channel to hear interviews with heavy hitters in the metals arena such as Bix Weir, and Harvey Organ.
Ive been hearing a lot about China buying silver but besides the other night, it doesnt seem to reflect it in the price all that much . I dont understand that.
ReplyDeleteTurd,
ReplyDeleteI have July 32 silver Call(s) I bought in Jan. . I'm not really a trader I'm more of a pick a direction and hold it kinda guy. I realize that the Premium is maxed out at price=strike and will only decay from here any advice on sit and hold, trade or ???? If I sold the 32's I could buy a lot more 40's..... In stocks one should let your winners ride.... with this market I just don't know how greedy to be.
"Do not underestimate us."
ReplyDeleteI love this blog. Drama!
Are they taking the slow boat 'round the Cape or going to run and gun thru the Suez?
Hahahahaha... Turd you crack me up man!
ReplyDeleteI peeked at the charts today one time but tried to stay away for the most part. I knew Blythe would come out swinging and while I don't trade I do find myself getting wrapped up watching those graphs. :)
Amazing volatility today, but what do you expect in a manipulated market right? It's funny to see how on most normal days the other markets will trade up and down a .10 - .20 range in silver but the second Blythes playhouse comes online swooosh! Down goes the price...
A quick message for Blythe, silver is still at $32.96 as I type this... Ware the ides of March! Seriously though who do think will take over your shorting business once your hung out to dry like your predecessor?
Good luck to all you fellas trading tomorrow, I'm rooting for you (aka buying some physical tomorrow :) )
I'm a student of military history and have actually toured the battlefield at Prokhorovka...
ReplyDeleteThat said, and as someone who has experienced combat, I can tell you this regarding close fought battles...
When both sides are seemingly exhausted and have shot their proverbial wad, the side that can make one last, often seemingly desperate push... usually carries the day.
Hey F, if I remember correctly the night before last the Asians were lighting that bastard up! Just remember they are trading this stuff to to some extent, so do expect some downside when they take profits.
ReplyDeleteAnyone know what the last night is that the Asian crowd can pile into silver to add to Blythes march fears? Would be funny as heck for Blythe to go home that day thinking she's got it all covered only to have the Asians cram it in her cram hole and drive the price up to the moon that night!
Stuey, are you part of Wynter Benton's group?
ReplyDeleteBoS needs to make a cameo....
ReplyDeleteThat's the question of the hour, isn't it Turdle?
ReplyDeleteLanguage is about the same.
Where's Louis Cypher when we need him??
F- China is not buying during Hong Kong hours.
ReplyDeleteJim Willie has reported previously that China is exerting power through trade in London hours.
Stuey's characters translated = do not underestimate us
ReplyDeleteSo if he isnt a troll and is part of WB, they are still active.
AHHHHHHHHHHHH, I was wondering why it seemed Europe was buying more than China .
ReplyDeleteThanks,
Don't underestimate us.
ReplyDelete螳螂捕蟬, 麻雀在后
lol is that straight out of google translate?
ReplyDeleteStuey's previous posts:
ReplyDeletehttp://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/02/lots-of-smoke.html
stuey said...
Don't believe wynston, that's fine. How about you believe me then?
This is bigger than you think. Turd go back and look at the post I gave a while ago. We are a group that wants to bring back the pain that the banks have given all of us.
Some people here say that they would be interested if price fell. That is exactly wrong. Price of silver in fiat will NOT fall. Why? Because Blythe needs to get price up hoping to have some standing sell in a "bubble" market. But its not and price will rise. There will be $36 by end of Feb.
This is a financial war now. No turning back.
Good luck. I post no more.
Go buy physical or you will regret it.
February 8, 2011 1:46 PM
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/continued-frustration.html
stuey said...
Y'all are just a little too emotional right now. Let me put something in your back pocket:
This is the absolute end of the line for the big boyz. This is it. They absoulutely HAVE to try to knock this thing down and will do so with every available means at their disposal. You have to remove your emotions from this, as China is hugely demanding physical and thus have tampered with the paper market. COMEX and others are just simply using this time to further induce their need to keep pm prices down.
The action today is comforting to me. I now have market confirmation that something is about to give very soon.
I don't really care if you don't believe me. I'm just adding my $.02 to the discussion. But I'll leave you with one small thing to think about:
If the strange outflows of physical keep occuring commensurate with paper price destruction, then the end of JPM is near. You have to see the full picture here to understand the dynamics.... forget price. It's a tool. Look at the physical market and you begin to see very quickly that it is unsustainable, therefore this last ditch effort is not only expected, but welcome IMO.
January 27, 2011 12:11 PM
Sumo here. Stuey's call of $36 by end of Feb. looks on track.
Countermeasure,
ReplyDeleteWho is the predator and who is the prey?
And for christ's sake why are we talking in riddles?
@ the traders trying to understand physical demand.
ReplyDeleteThe physical demand is not just in China.
It is also in main street USA where the coin shops continue to sell silver. A local coin store is cranking Monster boxes from the US mint every few weeks. Think about it...this one store is selling so many silver tubes that they have to place a wholesale Monster Box order. I went by their store and the woman inside was positively beaming. LOL
Thx sumo,
ReplyDeleteAnd what is this wynson instead of wynter crap?
This whole thing is stinking to high heaven right now. Reminds me of FOA and Another bought vs brought garbage.
Im getting more on board with fundamentals rather than conspiracy by the minute. Riddle me this riddle me that, blah blah blah, buy physical
I posted this comment this afternoon and didn't get any response so thought I'd try one more time...If Comex dies, what will happen to the spot FOREX silver market? Will it continue to function with the other players such as London, Zurich, Hong Kong, and Sydney players?
ReplyDeleteI don't care much for all this nonsense talk about where price is going, or what Blythe is doing.
ReplyDeleteThe only thing I do know is that fiat currencies are headed into the toilet. That's good enough for me to buy silver.
And I personally don't believe much of these rumors. Harvey's nightly summary is quite telling of the problems on the inside. The rest is all rumors and a waste of time to try and decipher. These people could be psychopaths for all we know.
Wait ive got it! Googled winston and lord rothschild and i now know it is the illuminati who will break jp morgan. Ha!
ReplyDeleteI bought physical at my local bullion dealer.
ReplyDeleteand behind him was a pallet full of monster boxes , I went in about two weeks later and most of the pallet was empty, I asked him Did you really sell all that?? he said yep . I was like holy shit!!! I bought two tubes myself that that day.
Jason, i've asked the same question many times buy nobody knows the answer. It is true that spot markets can and do exist without futures markets. So spot silver and gold markets should still exist, and should trade through FX platforms/procedures as they do now. One concern I have is what happens if hoarding of gold and silver becomes so prevalent that the leasing market fails to function, and that's currently a necessary part of spot trading.
ReplyDeleteAnyone else looking at out of the money puts on JPM? Almost got some this morning but decided against it. Burned too many times by betting against the chosen few.
ReplyDeleteJason, have a look at this:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hsbcnet.com/treasury/foreign-exchange/fx_spot_forward_contracts.html
My guess is spot silver price will diverge from Comex prices if the latter market malfunctions. But that is a beginner's guess.
Scisco, I bought some Jan 2012 put spreads on AAPL. Deep OTM. The price of the spread has doubled since last week.
ReplyDeleteScisco, thought of going short over the weekend but decided not worth it with pomo.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteTurdle GG, sumo,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your information. Guess that's why it's important to monitor the silver lease rates. If the rates get too high then people probably wouldn't buy. I do own physical PM but have been trying my hand at spot FOREX with a small amount of money I can afford to lose. The last month has been a very good learning experience reading all of the silver blogs/news/charts/graphs.
Thanks.
Jason
StrongSideJedi said...
ReplyDelete@ the traders trying to understand physical demand.
The physical demand is not just in China.
It is also in main street USA where the coin shops continue to sell silver...
Sumo here. The biggest silver retail market in the world is Mumbai. Most Indian silver is refined in China.
India: 1 Bn people who love gold and silver.
China: 1.3 Bn people who love gold and silver.
Im still looking at 37 for profit taking. Others?
ReplyDeleteTurdle GG - I suspect that the answer to his question and your posit lies in Federal bankruptcy law.
ReplyDeleteThe distribution of the remaining comex assets would go to primary creditors (i.e. JPMC) and lesser parties would probably get kicked to the side.
From this angle, the interest of the US government is to insure that COMEX has all the gold it claims. For some reason US Treasury seems reluctant via CFTC to hold parties accountable. I think the answer is obvious. If CFTC held COMEX et al responsible, the Treasury reserve holdings will need to be produced.
Anyone want to guess where those tungsten filled gold bars came from?
@sumo- good point about India.
ReplyDeleteActually, as I think about it, I can not think of any nation-state that is devoid of debt and has a populace that can pay.
The fiat printing is out of control to the point that the numbers are rapidly becoming meaningless.
I mean really...14,000,000,000,000.00 ????
Ok I have 2 questions:
ReplyDelete1) This whole WB billionaires unite and stand for delivery to make 20-30% cash premium return after COMEX runs out of silver to deliver. Where exactly is it written that COMEX must pay 20-30% premiums? Is it written in the options contract one purchases, or is that just some archaich COMEX policy that can be altered at any point in time? Can somebody point me to a link that proves this?
2) In the Feb 8 blog entry here, stuey said:
"Some people here say that they would be interested if price fell. That is exactly wrong. Price of silver in fiat will NOT fall. Why? Because Blythe needs to get price up hoping to have some standing sell in a "bubble" market. But its not and price will rise. There will be $36 by end of Feb"
I'm confused, so Blythe needed the price to go up? I thought she was shorting en masse.
SilverSurfer,
ReplyDeleteIt is not written that they have to pay any premium. What the premium does is avoid a physical default. The sellers of the short contacts offer the longs the premium to encourage them to voluntarily roll. Almost like hush money.
Lease rates up again yesterday:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kitco.com/charts/s_leaserates.html
Industrial users won't take cash. They need metal.
ReplyDelete@SilverSurfer-
ReplyDeleteI think some of the conjecture stems from this:
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2010/12/strange-events-at-comexgold-and-silver.html
Note the following paragraphs:
"And now for the strange deliveries and open interest remaining:
Monday night saw 5,428 longs deposit 100% of monies owing as they signalled to the comex that they were standing for the silver metal.
Early this morning I was really shocked to see only 34 notices sent down for delivery. This never ever happens this early in the delivery process.
I then waited patiently for the open interest to be revealed for the second day and it was a reading of 1945. With only 34 notices sent down, one can only conclude that 15 million oz of silver were bought off with cash and a huge premium. These guys then entered the market and bought which will explain why the total open interest remained relatively the same as the day before."
(and following also on the same web report)
The Open Interest in DEC silver was 5,428 which means that those were fully paid for contracts standing for delivery. Today the OI is reported as 1,945 contracts! What happened to the balance? Were the holders offered premiums to sell them? Something smells.
"I'm confused, so Blythe needed the price to go up? I thought she was shorting en masse. "
ReplyDeleteEveryone has a price. At $26, you'll take silver but if you add $10 bucks to it in less than a month, well.....that may be just enough to get contract holders to take cash instead of silver.
That's why the price must go up 'cause there ain't no silver to deliver. Gimme my money or show me the goods.
silversurfer,
ReplyDeletestill grasping this, but you might checkout this link which talks about it.
http://goldharvest.blogspot.com/
basically it seems there's a difference in price between physical silver and paper silver and that is what Blythe is using to her advantage.
@Scisco: Thanks , that makes more sense now. So then wouldn't it just be in the COMEX's best interest to publish real physical available numbers, and if they run out of silver to sell, then they simply stop selling contracts causing a massive surge in the price of silver, which would then result in physical holders to sell back? You know like real price discovery? :) At least this way they wouldn't go bankrupt. What have they got to lose by saying they are temporarily out of silver to sell? What am I not understanding here?
ReplyDelete@Jack: Rates are up indeed... all of 0.2% for a total of 1.2%. How is a 1.2% lease rate even significant? 10, 20 or 30+% yes, but 1.2%? What is that indicative of? (serious question)
Jack,
ReplyDeletedo you know what that big lease rate spike in 2002 was (looking at the silver long term graph). Wonder if we'll see something similar to that in the future.
sorry....looking at this link regarding the 2002 spike in silver lease.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kitco.com/lease.chart.silv.html
1% lease rate is $10k/month if you are storing $1m wealth in a "non-performing" asset like silver. Why not lease it out?
ReplyDeleteRates going up 1 to 1.2 is a 20% increase and is indicative of demand for the real stuff.
Jason found this very long article on leasing around 2002. It even makes reference to the comic book "silver surfer" surfing on a Silver Super Nova wave haha.. It's a well written educational article though...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.silver-investor.com/charlessavoie/nova.htm
I cant wait to see how many are standing for delivery tomorrow.
ReplyDelete1.2% doesn't translate to 20% increase in demand in my mind. It translates to somebody saying, hey there's still more demand, not sure how much, but let me jack up the lease price a *tiny* bit more and see if they still bite.
ReplyDeleteWhom BTW are the leasing sources for the COMEX?
It's not a 20% increase in demand. It's a 20% increase in lease rates.
ReplyDeleteI'm no pro like some of these guys, but that's how I read it.
I believe the 2002 spike was Warren Buffet buying 130 million ounces. Basically he sucked the market dry for months.
ReplyDeleteWell, no, that was 1998 so forget that.
It turns out Ted Butler wrote an article about leasing in 2002 (before my time in silver). Here is in all the gory details:
http://www.butlerresearch.com/silver-leasing.html
SilverSurfer: I believe those are monthly rates? So 1.2% x 12 is the annual rate.
ReplyDelete@Prize Fighter - agreed, but my point is that it's hardly significant. If in actual fact we see spikes in lease rates into 10% and beyond, then I think we have something to talk about.
ReplyDelete@Jack - the graphs show different colors for different periods (1mo, 3, 6, 12 months). The way I read it is that the longer the period (up to a 1 year lease), the slightly higher the premium is, which makes sense, but the way I read it, a 12 month lease is still only 1.2%. My guess is that most of the leases are only required overnight or for a short term transaction, so maybe that's why the price isn't dramatically higher for 12 months, since I'm guessing there may not be much demand for that.
Having quickly reviewed Ted's article it occurs to me that 2002 ....
ReplyDeletewas about the time ....
...World Central Bank stocks of silver went dry...except for 300 million ounces in China, if you believe the bear videos.
...that 300 million is also now gone. And if leasing explodes that means according to Ted and Harvey, well there's no more metal guys.
Game over. From Ted:
But, you must understand the situation. The COMEX crooks can only sell paper contracts. They obviously don't have the real thing, otherwise they wouldn't be paying 30% to borrow it. In doing that, they are handing you an opportunity of a lifetime. They are severely depressing the real price of silver, via leasing and paper short sales. Yeah, they may succeed in knocking silver down one more time. That is out of our control. But they can't manufacture real silver, like they manufacture paper silver. This market rig-job of theirs, just might blow up in their faces. Then, we are on our way to truly scary prices on silver. Real silver owners are going to get the financial shock of their lives.
The Q3/Q4 2008 lease mini-spike to ~2.5% is actually kind of interesting because if you look above showing the price of silver at that time, we see lease prices increase and prices decline. You'd think if prices are declining that there's more supply of physical to go around and thus less leasing required, thus lowering the lease price. I'm pretty sure that 2008 price dip was related to the financial crisis and everybody exiting all stocks & ETFs and hedge funds shorting the trend even further down into the ground, but a simultaneous spike in lease rates would suggest that physical was harder to get at the same time. THose that had physical wouldn't sell it, and if somebody wanted to lease it, they better be willing to pay a higher leasing premium.
ReplyDelete@SilverSurfer
ReplyDeleteMy understanding is that the COMEX does not partake in any buying or selling rather it is a venue with their own set of rules (think flea market). Therefore, looking at what the stock of the commodity in the COMEX vault doesn't really matter. The stock can be brought in from else where. For example, JPM could redeem SLV shares for bullion and then use that to settle COMEX contracts. Please note, this is very new for me so I could be very wrong! The only way to find out is to put it out there.
@Randy- that is a great post!
ReplyDeleteMany thanks for your comments!
Many thanks to TF for the blog.
I've learned tons.
I apologize for bad punctuation and simple errors. I was writing in haste.
ReplyDeleteHey,
ReplyDeleteI'm an American living in Shanghai, and I can verify that the Chinese are buying silver like crazy. Out of ten conversations I have about silver 5 will go out Immediately and buy. Most people here don't know the politics behind it, but they do understand the fundamentals a little bit.
Actually it's more like what I call the lemmings syndrome. They will do it because their friends are doing it. So in China alone you have these people that thrive on saving. Why put money in a bank with no interest when they can but it in a silver account at ICBC that works like a bank account. The fever is far from peaking.
My wife, who is Chinese didn't believe in Silver. It only took me an hour work of talking for her to hand over 10 grand to invest.
At a dinner last week it took a 10 minute talk for all 5 people to invest in Silver. Gold is not even mentioned anymore.
When I tried to pitch this to my American friends and strangers here, they shrug it off and say it's in a bubble, or think I'm some loon, and just ignore my talk, and then go on complaining about the economy.
What is happening in Shanghai at least, is a shift in the interest of investment. in 2001 the govt told the people to invest in housing and you will be rich. If you bought a house in Pudong(One side of Shanghai) for about 200'000 yuan(about 30'000 dollars) in 2001, right now that same apartment would be 3-4 million yuan. But the people who have been investing in real estate have found that that same 2 million yuan will get eaten right up due to the high rate of inflation here.
So in order to appease the masses people are now allowed to invest in silver and gold through buying physical or opening a metals bank account and trading it online. Most don't trade it though...I would say 95% are in it for long term. They used it as a bank account, the same as they did with their houses(They bought houses but never lived in them). # years ago it was illegal to hold physical bullion.
The strange thing is the people here still can't invest in platinum, or palladium which is strange. This leads me to believe the Chinese are planning to monetize silver and gold and have it back the Yuan.
Anyway,
So in China, Silver is slowly becoming the new house.
Turd I dig your site man. I am officially a turdite, so I'll keep you updated on China's progress.
Scisco, ok that makes good sense, hence "COMEX" Comodities Exchage. So they are just a type of clearing house then. The parties winner/loser for each contract are outside the COMEX. Am skimming through COMEX/NYMEX on wikipedia. So much reading, so little time :)
ReplyDeleteP.S. to my previous comment re stuey:
ReplyDeleteIn honor of the Asian buying that prompted me to add to my physical silver, I put some in Hong Kong ;-) (with GoldMoney, James Turk's company).
Randy Flagg, you underestimate the power of your mere suggestion. I saw what you did to Trashcan Man! ;-)
ReplyDeleteThank you for your insight overseas!
You might be right scisco, but if even 5000 contracts stand that would take 825 million dollars of slv at current prices. That demand would spike silver higher anyways.
ReplyDeleteSilverSurfer, you and me both. I opened my first brokerage account not even a year ago. If you aren't, I would recommend to start reading http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/ Harvey does an excellent job at breaking things down. Recently he answered a lot of questions about the COMEX in the discussion threads. Sorry but it is late here and I don't have time to dig them up for you.
ReplyDeleteIm sure some of you guys know butI stumbled on this and I thought it might be relavent to some people here .
ReplyDeleteOn July 21, 2010, the Congress passed the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.
Spot-month position limit levels set at 25% of deliverable supply for a given commodity, with a conditional spot month limit of five times that amount for entities with positions exclusively in cash-settled contracts
http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/jp-morgan-wins-cftc-position-limits-do-not-apply-them/50663
I dont know , but I thought it could be helpfull info.
@Robert Leroy Parker
ReplyDeleteI would argue that price isn't the worst problem for JPM when you have helicopter Ben on speed dial. The rumour is that shorts can't use the SLV because the silver there (if it exists) cannot be moved to an allocated account. It is possibly on lease. Recall how long Sprott had to hunt for his silver. It is possible that he was very picky about price but he states that he couldn't find the physical stuff that was available for delivery.
Turd, Sumo:
ReplyDeleteFYI, in addition to the stuey comments that Sumo posted here, there's also a January 24 comment here.
(I google-searched stuey at this site only; those results are here.)
Thanks Randy, we need eyes and ears over there for sure!!
ReplyDeleteSadly most of my Canadian friends have no clue about precious metals. I tried to explain to one of my best friends that silver was going to at least double in the next 2 years (conservative estimate). You'd think he'd be interested, but hardly. His attention span lasted all of 30 seconds and shrug it off as if he didnt really believe it.
Let me tell you a funny story from just 2 days ago. So I walk into my bank to ask for a substancial line of credit (to have a backup plan in case I ever get any margin calls). My financial lender starts explaining to me that to get a low rate asset back loan that I'd have to have "REAL" assets like a house (ok, makes sense), a car (depreciating asset, but ok), cash in my accounts or stocks (uhh What?!?). Since when are "PAPER" assets "real" assets? Those could be liquidated to zero in a minute.
But it gets better.. so I explain that I could back up the line of credit with a *real* physical asset like gold or silver. She said to me "Oh we don't consider those real assets" (!!!!!). This my friends, is the state of our banking system and the brain washed masses that live day to day in our ponzi fiat system.
Finally, I took a few minutes to explain to her the value of the physical metals I have, and then her eyes propped up, but said that they have no such policy to loan against physical PMs. Can you see the irony in all this BTW? She/the bank values paper fiat so high above PMs that it's not worth the "risk". Which leads me to my next conversation with her. I start explaining to her that when I bought this stuff a couple of years ago, it was worth X, and now it is worth X+$$$. I then explained, that in the 5,000 year history of gold, not for 1 day had the price ever gone to ZERO, and that you can't say that about a car or even a home (think Detroit homes at $100/house last year). Finally she started to get the picture that *maybe* just maybe I had something worth loaning fiat paper against.
She had to go to her branch manager to explain all of this and told me that she never ever (in her 12 year career at the bank as a lender) had somebody use precious metals to backup a loan. Hey there's a reason they call it "precious". MY PRECIOUS!!! LOL.
Two days later, and I must have gotten through to her, cuz my line of credit was approved. LOL.
Oh and I forgot to mention, in our conversation she did mention that she once bought some gold stocks cuz somebody told her it was a no brainer that it was going up, but when I asked what happened to them, she said she sold them to fund one of her vacations. (DOH!)
Is gold in a bubble? hahaha
@prize fight, silver surfer and strong side Jedi
ReplyDeleteNo problem...All in a days work as we all work together to take down Blythe
Scisco,
ReplyDeleteThe 100,000 share baskets apply to slv. If the fraud is so great that the silver can't be redeemed via this process, and jpm doesn't have the physical for delivery elsewhere, then cash settlements are the only option I see. We'll see next month.
Price might not be a problem for the morgue but they will still move the market with huge slv redemptions. Imagine if 10000 contracts stand.
There is NO doubt that Stuey is from the Wynter group.
ReplyDeleteThey specifically said they would communicate via Turd's blog. Heed his message and take heart.
The ONLY entity that can match JPM is the Chinese, and the Group is working with them or is a front for them.
Recall the story of doubting Thomas.
Cris, any idea what "China's feng dom's" means? I don't get it.
ReplyDeleteHi,
ReplyDeleteMy I ask who is BLYTHE?
I really enjoy this and want to say thanks. =)
@F, the CFTC "position limits" ruling, to my understanding (although I didn't read it all), is related to how many positions (contracts) can one person/company hold as a percentage of the entire market share. The purpose of imposing position limits is precisely to prevent organizations like JPM from cornering any comodities market like the Hunt Brothers did... whether those positons are short or long.
ReplyDeleteThe problem with the CFTC's rulling is that although position limits are now enforced, they made specific provisions to allow specific organizations like JPM to be grandfathered and thus fall outside these new rules. Hence they could not force JPM to cover all their shorts down to only 25% of the silver market (when they currently supposedly have many naked shorts in excess of several times the ENTIRE physical silver market - i.e. way over 100%).
Hence the title of the article "JP Morgan Wins, Position limits don't apply to them".
Had the CFTC ruled that there were no exceptions, then silver would have exploded upwards within SECONDS of that ruling. Trust me, the entire silver market was watching and listening that day!
Beyond that, the CFTC ruling, as per the article you pointed out makes ambigious exceptions for "bona fide Hedges" - which I totally agree, without a clear definition, it remains entirely elusive as to what that could mean. Well guess what? *HEDGE* Funds, do a heck of a LOT of hedging, and they have millions or billions to do it with; so the only people who this ruling really applies to are the little guys who could never even acquire 1% of any market, let alone 25%.
Conclusion: The CFTC is obviously nothing but a bunch of (likely paid) shills with no balls.
Feng means maple in Chinese
ReplyDeletemoogle fish: punch in "Blythe Masters" into Wikipedia. She is the mastermind that created Derivatives that were in great part contributed to the 2008 global financial crisis blow up. Not to rest on her laurels for that achievement, she also was a chief architect in creating the Carbon Credits market mega-scam which was sold to the public as the solution to global warming and climate change. The only thing that was changing was the speed at which dollars were being made by investment banks and those that created fake carbon credits. Youtube CAP AND TRADE sometime to learn about carbon credits.
ReplyDeleteSpecifically, she is the head of comodity trading at JP Morgan, and responsible for supressing the real price of gold and silver thus allowing the central banks to print trillions into the global financial system that result in massive inflation in 3rd world countries that you've been watching revolting on CNN for the last month.
In short, she is the devil in human form.
@SliverSurfer,
ReplyDeleteYah. That's the problem. The general public doesn't see PM as an asset. It's an asset when you sell it and convert it to paper money. For my trading emergency fund, I actually got a loan from my father. Gave him my PMs as collateral. I never plan to use the money, but with the volatility of the silver market and using leverage in forex, I wanted some kind of safety net.
Also, hardly anyone I know owns any PMs, although I can't say anything because I've only had PMs for a few years now. One guy at work has a handful of silver and another guy has two gold coins that he inherated, but he's been itching to sell them. He's just waiting for gold to make a new high. If it was silver, probably would take them off his hands, gold a bit to expensive for my tastes right now, and gold/silver ratio is at the bottom of a 20 year channel, so silver is a better buy in my opinion.
I'm going to talk to my father and make the argument that he should cash out one of his CDs and buy one monster box of American Silver Eagles. Need to make the argument that the small amount of interest he would lose would be more than made up by the increase in silver price. He's seen my PMs, and think he's a bit curious about buying some, just need to tell he's make more money than the CD and PMs actually retain their value. Hoping once he buys one monster box he might buy more when his other CDs are up for renewal.
I don't own nearly as much PMs as I'd like to, and I'm afraid for those people who only have paper assets. They may have a hous and a car, but that's it. In the US, the 401ks are all paper. We do have the Roth IRA which is for retirement and one can have a self-directed Roth IRA and one can invest in almost anything they desired. Unfortunately, for most people it's hot stocks like Amazon, Netflicks, Apple, etc. Those stocks may be well and good, but having all your eggs in the paper basket isn't.
@Jason, you need to get him to watch "The 11 Silver Factors"
ReplyDeleteBetter quality of the same video here:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.silver-investor.com/
Hey question to all of you US citizens. I've managed to convince my mother of the benefits of hedging her IRA in precious metals, and I'm trying to think of the best instrument for her to use.
ReplyDeleteI've tried to get her on board with physical but with no luck. So far the only thing I can think of is using the CEF, since this fund isn't managed by the JP Morgue or HSBC. What do you all think? Anything better out there?
@Randy Flagg - Thanks for your insights. I've convinced many of my coworkers of the benefits of silver, but it's just so hard for them to make the plunge.
ReplyDeleteI've even resorted to flipping a silver coin around the office (which is still fun), but to no avail. I think I need silver to get to at least 45$ before anyone starts to do anything. *sigh*
I have had CEF in my Roth IRA for several years now. I know that they hold physical PMs half gold half silver and based out of Canada. There was some discussion on CEF a few days ago.
ReplyDeleteHere are the revelant threads....Just search for CEF
http://www.google.com/#sclient=psy&hl=en&site=&source=hp&q=site:tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com+CEF&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=&pbx=1&bav=on.1,or.&fp=d66878670e5a6782
@Jason - Thanks for the quick comment! Much appreciated.
ReplyDeleteGreat Silver chart with notes added when Margins were raised...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/use-silvers-potential-weakness-for-maximum-profit-11375
Earl The Pearl
ReplyDeleteIf they won't come to the light...just move on and feel good that at least you tried to help them. I just converted another Chinese to buy. I wish I got a commission for this. Why can the Chinese see the value, but Westerners can't??
Well not all
During the week I teach a bunch of beautiful Taiwanese middle aged women who are rich. One gal comes in with a different LV bag every week. They are nice people, but they refuse to understand whats going on around them. This week I taught them about "Normalcy Bias".
They think because they are already financially well off(on fiat paper) that everything will be ok. I try to tell them in suttle terms with out being too pushy(because I'm supposed to be teaching them advanced English).
Its hard, because they keep telling me I'm worrying too much. I'm telling them that the currency one day will just suddenly change, and you have to prepare. They are content to think about flowers and good things, and say that there is nothing that they can do about the oncoming onlslaught.
The time is coming I can feel it. We can't pay our debts and this will result in a reset.
I only have 225 ounces of silver. Not nearly enough ro prepare myself for the oncoming economic disaster.
Webbot says silver will shoot to 600 dollars an ounce. I'm inclined to believe it.
Turdite out.
Gosh my spelling and punctuation are terrible!!!! suttle=subtle
ReplyDeleteAdd onto Randy Flagg's story: China has a long history of using silver as money so it's almost in their culture that silver = money. They actually call a bank in Chinese as "silver depot" or sth like that.
ReplyDeleteLatin and Islamic nations also have long history of using silver as money so they can pick it up fast as well.
Randy, very interesting. Can you provide more details about opening a metals bank account in China? I'm going to be in Beijing for a while in a couple of months time, is this available to kwai los?
ReplyDeleteSilver March OI - 46,730 contracts at close 22 Feb with three days to go.....
ReplyDeletewell I don't get that suey stuff
ReplyDeletefirst she/he said " Because Blythe needs to get price up hoping to have some standing sell in a "bubble" market. But its not and price will rise. There will be $36 by end of Feb."
and then
"This is the absolute end of the line for the big boyz. This is it. They absoulutely HAVE to try to knock this thing down and will do so with every available means at their disposal. ... COMEX and others are just simply using this time to further induce their need to keep pm prices down."
so do they need high prices to get people selling or do they need low prices to be able to clear the shorts cheaper??
probably the best for them would be the price to "fluctuate predictibly" so they can sell expensive and buy cheap.
betpharaoh
ReplyDeleteyeah you can but it's useless if you are not staying in China because Chinese banks and US banks pretty much are not connected.
Anyway find an ICBC (industrial and Commercial Bank of China)
ask to open up an online metals account.
get the bank card
deposit money
Go online figure it out(it can be english also)
and do your business.
This is the prompt page
https://mybank.icbc.com.cn/icbc/perbank/index.jsp
Silver March OI - 46,730 contracts at close 22 Feb with three days to go.....
ReplyDeleteDamn it was 50'000 yesterday geez
3'000 contracts ran away? Why???? come on stand your ground. 3 days left
Randy Flagg,nice feedback.
ReplyDeleteIs it true that the state throught state tv advestisements actively encouraged the CVhinese citizens to invest in gold and silver,starting about a year ago?
Could someone give an opinion to a curious and slightly sceptical newbie to this site (who nevertheless is holding some silver so not that sceptical.)
ReplyDeleteIf silver doesn't jump in the next three days, is that to be seeen as a failure of expectations and a prelude to a sell off?
RF - Still at least 25k contracts that can not be covered by the current COMEX stash... agreed though, stay strong everyone... make the FED have to bail out COMEX...
ReplyDeleteSueco : what is the source of this info?
ReplyDelete@Seuco
ReplyDeleteWe need overkill just to make sure the beast is dead. Kinda like bringing nuclear weapons to a knife fight.
@George
Yes it is a massive campaign. Every bank you got to has huge Gold/Silver Bars in display windows. It's on Tv too.
If you go in with your friend and don't buy a big gold/silver bar they will lose face. So each one tries to top the other. To some people here gold and silver is bragging rights.
If JPMC pays a premium to holders of long contracts, then there will be no price rise? Am I correct in thinking this? The price would only rise if they bougt contracts on the market to close their shorts.
ReplyDeletehttp://in.reuters.com/article/2011/02/23/idINIndia-55090920110223
ReplyDeleteInteresting reasonably factual read
MANIPULATION FAILS, METALS SPIKE & CEO ANDY SCHECTMAN
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xzgrQYnnmcE
This piece is long, but it has worked on the two people in my life that had me blue in the face trying to explain silver to. It takes a great approach:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/johnny-silverseed
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeletePosted by Chris: "http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/use-silvers-potential-weakness-for-maximum-profit-11375"
ReplyDeleteMargins were raised for the silver intramarket spreads last Friday, NOT the standard COMEX contract. The standard 5000 oz COMEX contract remains at the same 11k$ initial margin it was since it was last hiked in late January. Just look into your trading program and try to trade the standard COMEX 5000 oz silver future contract.. you'll see it's the same 11k it was before.
Or just direct your browser to the CME Group (they run the COMEX) webpage:
http://www.cmegroup.com/wrappedpages/clearing/pbrates/performancebond.html?group=METALS&type=OutrightRates&h=2&reporttype=marginrate
Please be more careful while passing around information, it might just was well turn out to be plainly wrong.
Oh and the Youtube Video you posted, Chris, is just as wrong on the margin hike for silver. The standard silver futures margin has not been increased... not since January anyway.
ReplyDeleteMarkus - Thanks for your comments. I was hoping someone would chime-in on these...why is there such confusion by supposedly knowledgeable people?
ReplyDeleteChris, I dunno, but there is a lot of emotional people in this market that will not check for facts but will repeat whatever suits their argument.
ReplyDeleteI'm emotional about gold and especially silver too but you got to control these emotions at times, otherwise you'll probably just be one of those who lose their position on the next banker-engineered short term takedown.
Information from good reliable sources is also very important.
Sources I can recommend:
www.kingworldnews.com
www.gata.org
www.gotgoldreport.com
www.jsmineset.com
traderdannorcini.blogspot.com (it was actually one of his articles that alerted me that the story on the margin increases last week was not true)
harveyorgan.blogspot.com
Giving a lot of thought to our Chinese friends. Besides owning trillions of our fiat/bond toilet paper, what is their biggest problem? As the preminent newest mercantile exporting nation, they have built this huge manufacturing infrastructure, peaking just as the importing economies began shrinking ( due to high enemployment, etc ) and other issues. They need to transition their internal populace into consumers, but even with 1.3 billion people so very few make any money. But no matter how low the average wage, they are ( as does India ) savers by and large.
ReplyDeleteWhat better way to increase their purchasing power than to, first, encourage saving in silver and gold, and then at some future point, see to it that silver and gold increase markedly in value while watching the dollar decline and yuan de-peg and increase in relative value?
In order to do this, they must quit purchasing US Bonds ( we know that has been occurring; that is a verifiable fact); they must quickly ( not too quickly; they don't want the dollar to crash and lose the value of their still biggest holding overnight )use their existing hoard of bonds and divest into anything else; gold, silver, steel, copper, oil, i.e any and all hard assets. We know they have also bailed out some European situations, buying future influence there. They are virtually colonizing parts of Africa; (and Vancouver for sure, lol.).
What a strategic chess move; get all your relatively poor people to get even a little PM's; while your Western opponent while richer holds only fiat.
NOTE: I shit you not my comment word is "rally" !!
Omens, anyone?
33.30 still being defended.
ReplyDeletePrice spiked to there in minutes from 33.
Good advice markus, people who do not trade too much can get sucked in to the hype. You need to keep a contrarian view and keep your feet on the ground. Take heed of the other side of the argument.
ReplyDelete@Sumo, @StrongSide,
ReplyDeleteI could't agree more with Sumo, "Sumo here. The biggest silver retail market in the world is Mumbai. Most Indian silver is refined in China."
Traditionally most well to do Hindu families would have Silver dinnerware of at least 5-10 Kgs. This would be used during festivities and special occasional use.
I am typing this from a place near Mumbai. http://www.mcxindia.com is commodity exchange where Gold/Silver is traded, but, is Controlled by likes of JPig Morgue and MB's cronies.
The Screwtape Files has the wynter_benton messages. I keep mulling over the two below.
ReplyDeleteThe messages assert that JPM has a massive hidden OTC short position on Silver. If the silver price gets too high, $36 or more, JPM's derivative losses go "exponential".
This might explain why JPM allegedly offers a rich premium to settle Comex silver futures in cash, rather than in metal. This "under the table" payoff avoids the high public price that would trigger derivative losses and margin calls by counterparties.
If these assertions are true, then Blythe must have shat herself when spot prices reached $34 with no sign of slowing down, at the start of the week.
$36 is also Stuey's target. Interesting. Are the assertions true?
Another piece of the puzzle: Rob Kirby's talk on JPM's astronomical derivatives exposure The Elephant in the Room . I don't understand it, even though I've read it several times.
But going by wynter_benton's emails, I'm guessing that JPM has entered into some massive interest rate swap based on silver. Am I on the right track? Please help me here.
............................
28-Sep-10 02:08 pm
WB: Blythe tried to engineer a selloff in
gold and silver so that JPM can make its quarter on September 30. As of right now, JPM (thanks to Blythe) is sitting on unprecedented losses on its gold and silver position that is reportables. What is not widely knowned is that there are other silver and gold derivatives that are "off books". As silver and gold stands right now, JPM will have to issue an earnings warnings which will only encourage the likes of Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and other hedge funds to drive the prices even higher. Btw, the real problem is that there isnt any physical silver left in the world and there is nothing Blythe, JD, JPM, or even the mighty Fed and Treasury can do about it despite access to unlimited amount of paper funny money!!!!
...
20-Nov-10 07:06 am
WB: JPM is in worse shape then we ever dared to hope
Blythe,
This is what I am now hearing from traders on the floor. These traders are not even sure if Blythe knows the full extent of JPM's silver exposure.
When I first started to realize that JPM has shorted far more silver than they could ever hope to cover, my first question was "why would they do that?" Not only that, why do it with a commodity where you must report your positions through the COT and Bank Participation Report? After all,the whole world can see what you are doing.
[continued in 2nd post]
[continued]
ReplyDeleteNow I know the answer. According to Max Keiser and now a couple of other independent sources, it seems the reasons why first Bear Stearns and now JPM are so desperate to manipulate the price of silver down is due to the fact that BS and JPM shorted billions (yes billions not millions) in ounces of silver through their derivatives.
Just like Joe Conason at AIG, silver shorting through derivatives have caused literally billions in losses not the millions that we know about publicly. That is why JPM has been so desperate to manipulate the price of silver downward so blatantly. If I am right about this, then JPM will be dead when silver hits $60 or so. Based upon the COT and BPR, if silver hits $60, JPM will lose around an additional $6 billion dollars, a large number but not nearly large enough to bring down mighty JPM.
But what is not known is that due to the way that its derivatives are written, JPM's losses are exponentional once silver breaks $36 or so. Rumors has it that JPM could be losing as much as $40 billion once silver is above $50. It has something to do with how the derivatives are written with payment tied to the price of silver.
Since JPM was a price manipulator with respectt to the price of silver, JPM assumed that any derivative payments tied to silver would be less than they would be tied to some other index like the CPI or TIPS implied inflation index. JPM's inability to hold down the price of silver relative to other measures of inflation will cause unbelievable losses due to a mismatch in their derivative structures.
In essence,JPM has bet (a huge amount)through derivatives that silver will never outperform inflation. And why not,since JPM assumed that it will always be able to manipulate the price of silver. We have now come to understand that JPM's loss exposure to silver is much greater than we have ever dared to hope.
...
Who still holds March 2011 SI Call options?
ReplyDeleteThey expire today.
What is the last time they trade (should I assume
10:30am New York time)?
If you are rolling to another month,
which month?
Markus - thanks for the links. Patience is the hardest aspect of investing. It's taken me a long time to learn it. I copied this from an email I received this morning, which you may have also received:
ReplyDeleteThe best way to play a bull market – just sit
That’s what I mean by thinking too much.
An old pro might say, you never go broke taking a profit. Manage your risk, take money off the table on the way up, and so on.
But the bottom line is that gold and silver are in a bull market. Bulls have a habit a throwing you off. Yes, gold and silver aren’t cheap any more. Yes, you’re coming late to the party. But the best way to trade a bull market is not to. Stay long and strong.
I am minded here of old Mr Partridge, the veteran trader in Edwin Lefevre’s ‘Reminiscences Of A Stock Operator’, which tells the story of Wall Street legend, Jesse Livermore. The firm was not happy that Partridge was giving ‘very little in the way of commissions’. But every time old Mr Partidge was given a tip to sell in order to buy back at lower prices, he would thank the tipster politely and just say, ‘It’s a bull market’. He didn’t want to lose his position. Here’s what Livermore learnt from him:
“And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: it never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that?
“My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I’ve known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level, which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine — that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money.
“Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out was fatal to me. Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market your game is to buy and hold until you believe that the bull market is near its end.”
This bull market is nowhere near over. Gold and silver are going a lot higher. Maybe not this week, maybe not this month, maybe not even this year, but they are. Enjoy the ride.
Markus - The links below are my reading every morning...seriously! They might prove useful to others on Turd's blog:
ReplyDeletehttp://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/
http://www.zerohedge.org/
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
http://www.jsmineset.com/
http://maxkeiser.com/
http://www.goldtrends.net/
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
http://silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com/
http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com/
http://www.rickackerman.com/
http://biiwii.blogspot.com/
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/
http://treo.typepad.com/got_gold_report/
http://silverseek.com/
http://www.youtube.com/user/endlessmountain#p/a/u/0/SR9vr-jRrc4
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Broadcast.html
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/KWN_DailyWeb.html
http://www.goldmodel.blogspot.com/
http://truthingold.blogspot.com/
http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com/
http://goldharvest.blogspot.com/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/
http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/
http://bobchapman.blogspot.com/
http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/
http://implode-explode.com/news.html
http://www.thedailycrux.com/
http://www.financialsense.com/
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/
http://www.321gold.com/
http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2011/02/who-is-winter-benton-is-silver-about-to.html
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/economic_projections.htm
http://yrah53.wordpress.com/
http://goldscents.blogspot.com/
http://whengeniusprevailed.com/
http://goldbasics.blogspot.com/
http://www.goldenjackass.com/
http://solari.com/blog/
http://thedailygold.com/
http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/
http://globalperspectives.info/
http://economicdisconnect.blogspot.com/
http://mcalvanyweeklycommentary.com/
http://www.24hgold.com/
http://goldmoney.com/
http://www.marketskeptics.com/
http://www.financeandeconomics.org/
http://www.prisonplanet.com/
http://www.theblaze.com/
FUBM.... looks like they prepare an Airback for the next attack from BM
ReplyDelete33.30 reached and breached (just), but the Wicked Witch is keeping a cap on advances from there
ReplyDeletechris, my first stop in a session is the Finviz futures page: http://www.finviz.com/futures.ashx
ReplyDeleteFree, auto-refreshes, has a 2-minute delay on the data. The auto-updated news page is also very useful:
http://www.finviz.com/news.ashx
That's how I first found Zero Hedge.
Sumo - that's an awesome link. Thanks!
ReplyDeleteChris, you're way more motivated on your reading than I am.. hehe.
ReplyDeleteBtw I completely agree with that email. It's in human nature to want to do something. Or at least it's embedded in our modern western society. But sometimes there is just nothing better to do than to sit and wait for something.
ALCON:
ReplyDeleteBeen awhile, still serving our country (Big Red1), but able to read the POSTS... Great work from my world, keep it up Turd and Turdites... I enjoy the WW2 analogies, a bit of a historian myself. My reminder is, after the great battles/victories in Europe, guess what, we had the Marshall Plan, oh yeah we saved their you know whats... Unfortunately,BM will get her Marshall Plan as well. So stop speculating and keep investing, "buy physical, store food, read turd"
BTW, go to Billy Joel song "always a woman to me" read the lyrics, he's talkin' about that B--tch! COL Turdite-out.
Thanks for the list of sites, Chris. I didn't know about the BobChapman blog. I've followed him for years, so that's a nice addition to my already long list, which includes many of your choices. I also follow a few YouTube channels like SGTBull007.
ReplyDeleteI never needed an RSS reader before, but find it very useful now. Most of the sites and YouTube have RSS feeds, making it very efficient to scan them all automatically for new articles. I use the Firefox addon Sage, but there are many others.
so easy for americans to make money, what is the best play for euros?
ReplyDeleteThanks for your links, Chris.
ReplyDeleteWe can't get over 33.30...
BREAKING NEWS FOR YOU GUYS....
ReplyDeleteI have just finished watching the CCTV news...
There is a policy that has just been implemented around China that prevents Chinese citizens from buying two houses. As you may not have known China is trying to fight a real estate bubble. Prices here in Shanghai are astronomically expensive. For an average apartment in Shanghai you can buy a nice apartment on the upper west side in New York. That's how bad it is here.
So in January you had millions upon millions of middle class people in line trying to buy a second house for an investment. The government has now created a rule that prevents these people from buying a second house.
So here a person has 5 million yuan(around 800'000 dollars) with no house to invest it in. So where has the heard went to?
GOLD and Silver
All this money that was intended to buy houses are now being redirected to go to the bank to buy gold and silver.
A brilliant move by the Chinese government.
This is gonna be one hell of a ride my friends!!
@Sumo,
ReplyDeleteToo Good, Thanks for the links
I just recieved an email which I think must be a sales pitch for GLD, and filled with what I consider DISINFORMATION. Here is most of the article:
ReplyDeleteExposé: The Truth Behind GLD
By Andrew Gordon
Dr. Rusty McDougal first warned me about GLD last year. (GLD is the exchange-traded fund that uses shareholder money to buy an equivalent amount of gold, minus expenses.) Rusty is a gold bug. But he doesn't like GLD. He doesn't think it has the gold it claims to have. And he says it's in cahoots with the big banks and gold traders who manipulate gold prices.
"If you want gold, why would you buy 'paper gold'?" he asked me.
I'm going to answer that question here. (And it's probably not what you expect.)
But first... confession time. I own gold, but I'm no gold bug. I've never invested in GLD. But I've always liked the idea behind it: It provides a way to own gold without the hassles of storing it, transporting it, and keeping it secure.
After talking to Rusty, I did a little research. And I quickly found out that his opinion of GLD is shared by many other gold followers. GLD, they say, is also guilty of many other sins Rusty didn't mention. They don't insure their gold. They don't keep track of their gold. They don't audit their gold. They allow their gold (bought by GLD shareholders) to be leased by their gold "handlers." And they operate behind closed doors.
You're getting the picture, right? The bottom line? Many folks think that GLD cannot be trusted. And it certainly doesn't deserve your money.
But if GLD is playing games with its customers, it's the best-run scam I've ever come across. Either that or it is what it says it is: a convenient way to invest in gold if you don't mind never seeing or touching the metal you're buying.
Sorry, but I'm not buying into the idea that GLD, together with the big banks, is bilking investors out of their hard-earned cash. First off, everyone and his mother would have to be in on the conspiracy. (Here's the short list: GLD, HSBC Bank, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, UK Financial Services Authority, London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), Bank of England, Brinks Ltd., Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, UBS Securities, Morgan Stanley & Co., and Deloitte & Touche.) And that just doesn't make sense.
Surely there are easier ways to manipulate the price of gold than to prop up one of the biggest and best known ETFs by falsifying dozens of documents, don't you think?
But I have a bigger problem with the case against GLD.
Except for one, that is – and it's something that GLD readily admits...
The say, upfront, that they won't deal with you directly if you want to exchange your shares for gold. You have to do it through your broker.
So buying GLD shares isn't the same as buying gold. If that's a deal breaker for you, you don't have to read any further. You know all you need to know about GLD.
But if you're still interested, the question remains, is it worth investing in GLD?
I say absolutely yes. Because you get two big benefits.
For openers, you get to jump off the dollar-debasement train. President Nixon took us off the gold standard in 1971. And if you want to go back to the good ol' pre-Nixon days of a gold-backed currency, there's really only one way to do it. Buy GLD shares. They're fully backed by gold. While the dollar goes down, your shares of GLD go up right in step with gold...
continued:
WOW! Great comments everyone!!!!
ReplyDeleteI'll have a new thread in about an hour.
Very interesting action overnight.
The question was asked about which month to roll into with options. I'm buying May11.
@Vedast - Silver looks to be forming a falling wedge pattern which is bullish...but anything can happen between now an US open
ReplyDeleteRandy, read my post above on China. Your news bulletin fits into my theory perfectly; the Chinese are mega-encouraging directly and now indirectly PM purchase by its citizens.
ReplyDeleteVery very interesting indeed.
Here's the most honest line in that entire article:
ReplyDelete"But if GLD is playing games with its customers, it's the best-run scam I've ever come across."
Randy, thanks for the alert. Very valuable.
ReplyDeleteThanks for flushing the rest of the unpaid advertisment for GLD out of the bowl, Turd...I read it and felt unwell...then it was gone.
ReplyDeleteWith the new site, are you going to be able to police it as you grow? The lack of flame-wars is a real plus for Turd's World. All the best.
Chris.. that email is mostly correct I'd say. GLD shares are only redeemable in 10000 shares (-> 14 million $) and above, and only via the authorized participants which are basically the bullion banks.
ReplyDeleteSo why not just buy physical bullion instead? You'll probably even have to pay less premium on physical than on the GLD ...
Turd, Enron still holds the gold medal for scams, IMHO. JPM gets the silver medal (heh).
ReplyDelete@Nic - I rolled over laughing when I read it, especially the part where it mentions that everyone would have to be in on the Conspiracy like JPM, FRBNY, GS etc...Imagine how many people are on that GLD mailing list...desperate to get new money invested as the Chinese may be pulling out physical from both GLD and SLV?
ReplyDeletePat
ReplyDeleteMy thoughts exactly
Sumo right on dude
Chris & Markus re GLD...you would also have to ask yourself why their bullion holdings fell in the last price run up....expectation is the trustee banks are working with big buyers to provide physical by the basket without the inconvenience of bidding for it in the open market. I'm with Turd on this.
ReplyDeleteMay have been stated, but the $33.35 which is the 1-hour 50% retrace line (from yesterdays peak) again appears to be fairly solid resistance.
ReplyDelete?). Is this due to Algo trading platforms triggering off key Fib re-trace lines.
Thx
f2ed9ae0-3f46-11e0-b662-000bcdcb471e said...
ReplyDeleteWho still holds March 2011 SI Call options?
They expire today.
What is the last time they trade (should I assume
10:30am New York time)?
If you are rolling to another month,
which month?
------------------------
I always contact my broker Lind Waldock to get the specifics on trading options on the day of expiration, but I am pretty sure (99%) that the options will be valued at the settlement price when pit trading closes, 12:30 CST. It might be 12:25 -- I cannot remember and this is why I consult my broker.
If you are in the money, you can sell the options but near expiration, there might not be any bids. One way to lock in profits is to short a March silver future (assuming you are long an in-the-money call) against the call. You won't need any margin if you are in the money. Be careful if you use this technique however, because if you go out of the money and are short a future, then the option will NOT be exercised by your broker (it will expire worthless), and you will be naked short the future.
If you expect a raid today before option expires, then consider shorting SI today if you are in the money on your call option. If you are wrong about the raid and silver makes gains, you at least locked in your gains and when your option is exercised, then the short future will be used to offset.
Make sense?
Silver is up at $33.31. That means it's time for:
ReplyDelete* Jeff "shortage? what shortage?" Christian to publish another article that there is no shortage in silver. It's just delayed in the mail due to weather.
* Some Fed mouthpiece to publish another article that gold is not money. It's just that Asian central banks are stockpiling it by mistake, because they lack a proper education from Harvard.
@Nic
ReplyDeleteYou seem to already be aware of what's going on behind the scenes...but if you have not read the FOFOA article above, it will confirm your thoughts.
Why all of you piling on Jeff. No one is talking about Nadler ;) Has he vanished ?
ReplyDeleteLivermore once boiled his advice down to, "Buy right and sit tight."
ReplyDelete"lollercoaster said...
ReplyDeleteso easy for americans to make money, what is the best play for euros?"
Need some European Turdites to chime in here. Though I assumed that vehicles such as physical metals, mining shares, futures and options were all available in Euroland.
Oh, and "easy"? Considering what we are up against, there's nothing easy about any of this.
Buckle up, boys. Should be another crazy day.
Eric - you might check into www.bullionvault.com
ReplyDeleteThe best play for Euros is silver miners. Hedge your currency in the account and buy what Sprott is buying. My biggest holdings are SLW and AXU where Sprott has 18,3% share.
ReplyDeleteBuying physical is also an option, but we have 20% tax that I just hate.
Thanks Randy for the update form China and Dr. Turd for his work.
Regards from Slovenia.
Got this from Ed Steer in his daily email
ReplyDelete5.6M ounces of physical withdrawn from SLV yesterday..
New article on Seeking Alpha:
ReplyDeleteWhy I'm Buying Silver at $30
sumo said...
ReplyDelete"Now I know the answer. According to Max Keiser and now a couple of other independent sources, it seems the reasons why first Bear Stearns and now JPM are so desperate to manipulate the price of silver down is due to the fact that BS and JPM shorted billions (yes billions not millions) in ounces of silver through their derivatives."
If so, buying puts on JPM, which are inexpensive, would amount to a leveraged play on silver.
@loller: I'm in Germany, and can purchase physical gold & silver through coin shops, certain banks, and certain internet sites. I can buy / sell stocks through my bank account, and am currently invested in silver & gold miners, minor positions in other areas. My idea is to hold physical as a core position, but try to make some gains through the miner stocks. I don't know if it is the best strategy, but it fits my temperament ...
ReplyDeleteI'm sure it is possible to trade options in Germany, but I have never wanted to badly enough to figure out exactly how. I have a full-time job and high blood pressure as it is, so I don't think I need to deal with options. I would like to understand how they work better, however.
@nearwana -- that apparent WB inconsistency stuck out to me too as soon as they posted them. My interpretation: BM has a conflict. On the one hand, higher Ag frees up physical allowing her more chance to cover those who stand for delivery; on the other, massive shorting discourages those who stand, leaving her less to cover. Given this conflict, I suspect (tho don't know) that she'll be more likely to hammer the price massively to the end, both because it's the emotion talking (I think the Hitler bunker and tank battle analogies are great), and there might be a regulatory out she's got in her back pocket. As such, I'll be pleasantly surprised if WB reach their $37 dollar target. But who knows...
ReplyDelete