Tuesday, February 8, 2011


Well, isn't this interesting?

First of all, sorry for the delay in checking in this morning. The youngest turd is under the weather so I've been a little distracted.

I must say that I am more than a little intrigued by today's action. We got the Chicom rate hike announcement which, predictably, sent the PMs reeling. Then, right around 8:30 and just when one would expect Blythe to put the hammer down, the PMs reversed and shot higher! It smells of manipulation...in this case to the UP side. And with today being Feb 8 and all the hubbub from the mysterious Benton, well, like I said, isn't this interesting?

Here is a 3-minute gold chart showing today's volatility:
The monkeys are going to have a hard time unscrewing the auger on that one! Though I try not to draw any lines of significance on 3-minute charts, I gave you two.
One, look how 1350 even served to contain the early am selloff today. This is a very positive development and the more times it holds, the more sturdy the support becomes there as buyers, recognizing the support, begin to place orders right at that level. A virtuous cycle, if you will.
Two, gold has now moved into the "congestion zone" of 1360-80 that we mentioned last week. Expect some tough sledding through here as a move through 1380 is going to generate a lot of excitement from buyers and, well, from Blythe's perspective, we can't have that.

Now look at silver. Again, the lines on this chart are mainly for perspective. As in gold, only a move back down through today's earlier lows would give me pause. IF this rally continues, however, and IF we can move UP and through $30, its "katie bar the door".
OK, that's it for now. I wish I had more insight for you but, on days like this, like you I'm just another excited spectator. I've got lasts of 1366 and 29.92. WOW!!!
Keep your fingers crossed and keep checking in. TF


  1. Yup. Wynter is reporting the Chi Com rumor was a plant to trap Blythe...who fell for it by piling on shorts. Now that the interest rate hike not happening, they have to cover and quick.

    "It was The Leader who took silver up in the middle of the night only to allow Blythe to think that she trapped us with that China interest rate hike.

    It was our group who leaked the China interest rate hike story before it was even announced. Blythe fell for the trap and shorted like crazy.

    Now witness the destruction of Blythe and The Morgue itself."


  2. For those who are new to investing in physical PM's, I highly recommend this is video series by Richard Maybury. It's great even if you are an experienced investor.


    Also, his book "What Ever Happened to Penny Candy" is a must read and a great introduction to Austrian economics.

  3. I heard the price of gold on my way into work and about ran to my office to check the price of silver. I was thinking it's gotta be pushing $30 if gold is up that much. First place I came to is your blog and whaddaya know, the PM's have gone bonkers. Let's see how this plays out.

  4. Do we think 2980 will now form resistance??

  5. Apparently, Blythe's monkeys may be feeling demoralized. My heart bleeds..

    This from Wynter

    "The message is not for our traders but for Blythe's traders who are thinking of abandoning her.

    This whole operation has been to demoralize the traders who are still at The Morgue and who are now regretting their decisions not to join us in May 2010."


  6. Major Danish Banks Failure sets up next gold tick:

    One of the 10 largest Danish Banks failed, interesting article..


  7. Shout out to whoever gave that Great Panther recommendation; my best mover of all today.

  8. I came across TF's site 3 weeks ago have become a regular since then. As an Indian higher prices for Gold and Silver are both a boon and a bane. We need to buy PMs irrespective of their price as it forms a core part of wealth passed on to our children. One important point wrt silver I would like to mention is that in India, Silver is accumulated mainly by the middle income and rich families. Low income families may have an avg of 10gm of pure gold but zero silver. If these group of people start looking upon silver as poor man's gold and say 200 million people buy 10 gms each then it would equate to about 2million kgs (70 million ounces). Anyone care to do the math about where silver could go then?

    I have been accumulating Silver since Nov 2008 and am sitting on a tidy profit which will not be encashed until 2015. The reason I mention 2015 is because I follow a certain 'Martin Armstrong'. I find his argument sensible when he stresses the fact that Gold is not a hedge against inflation for if it does so then its price would correlate to the consumer price index. It is a hedge against Government default and uncertainity. Martin Armstrong has mentioned the year 2015 could be a top in the Gold bull market.

  9. Wow, Wynter's making this thing sound personal:

    This message was a demonstration of our power to Blythe's traders.

    Why don't you check to see when Blythe fired her traders in 2010? It was in June and July.

    The Leader kept a record for you to check on (even now) that shows clearly that he was recruiting Blythe's traders in May 2010.

    It was his way of showing people like you that he started the recruiting effort far earlier than when Blythe started her firings.

    Now her former traders, who made "very interesting career decisions" are back to slaughter her.

    Check the history of Wynter's messages. Check the very first one!!

    "At last we will reveal ourselves to The Morgue. At last we shall have revenge."--The Leader


  10. I've been getting Richard Maybury's newsletter for years. Excellent. And very consistent with the general view on this blog.

    He doesn't dwell on short term calls. It's all pretty long term, big picture stuff. His forecast for a while has been for $3000 gold, 50 silver, 3000 platinum, 300 oil, and $9 gasoline.

    In his most recent letter he first addressed the idea of a return to some kind of a gold standard, and at what price. He said "I will be surprised if it's less than $5,000..."

  11. why hello there mr. $30. long time no see. hope you stick around for a while

  12. Turd, I wanted to let you know your work is very appreciated. I am a professional precious metals dealer (physical), but I lack the experience and education that you clearly have. You help me to better understand things that until recently, I thought I had all figured out. I read your analysis with with the eager fascination of a child learning something new. Oh yea, and i make sure to click on the ads every time i visit. One last thing...Regardless of the manipulated fiat price in June, I sincerely hope you do not hang up your yellow hat, it would be a loss to too many.

  13. cmill, let's hope we can see $30 in the rear-view mirror in short time.

    Good to see him, but better to look back at him!

  14. AUCT: Thank you for the kind words. I'm glad I'm helping.

    This Benton story really has my attention. Very, very interesting.

  15. agsigo - I've never heard of this Martin Armstrong, but I'm curious as to why he thinks the need to hedge against gov't default will go away in 2015. (Gov'ts all fall? Gov't sanity (oxymoron alert) appears?)

  16. I've noticed something strange and unique.
    The Kitco chart is a live spot chart, not delayed.
    This morning, it is consistently about 5-10 cents ABOVE the March future.
    Maybe its some kind of fast market? I don't know?
    Could it also be some backwardation hitting the Comex? I don't know. But, its very strange and I've not seen it happen before.

  17. Just saw it go past 30.00, was wondering what you thought of the action last night by the chicoms, I didn't know there was a rate hike.

    Keep up the good work Turd :)

  18. Helluva battle going on to cross that $30 mark and stay there !

  19. Yea, I always watch the kitco chart myself. So is the futures still showing below $30?

  20. Yes, I have a high of 29.98 and a last of 29.95

  21. Turd, that's interesting. I also see March hanging out around 29.92-29.94

  22. I don't know, I'm watching the live silver spot tick chart from netdania. Keeps bouncing between 29.95 and 29.98 with occassional trips to 30.00 and then back down.

  23. Here's a search link for all Wynter_Benton's posts
    on yahoo mesg bds


  24. Turd, how long can we hang out there without breaking out before it's knocked down?

  25. Here is a very handy tool I use for anyone interested...it runs the Kitco spot prices of gold and silver on your lower toolbar so they're in view at all times. Only takes a minute to download:


  26. I mentioned this on Dan's site but it bears repeating. Sprott's is also vulnerable to bullion raids......not just by the "Chinese" but by our a little "closer" group. Watch the premium to NAV at Sprotts...it is about to explode if my information is correct....

  27. Tyler: A close above 30 would be huge.

  28. Prior to this, talk of silver backwardation has been more ephemeral, rumor, and hard to actually see on your screen. Seems like now it's right there in front of our faces.

  29. I was just writing the same thing as you Turd when I came over here.

    I linked you and also noted the mysterious absence of the success or failure of your journey to the land of forgotten things.


  30. I know this isn't a stock picking site, but I'd like to second Pat's shout out to whoever mentioned Great Panther.

  31. From Brian's link...

    "this crazy bastard's blog". Coffee shooting out of my nose.
    Damn, Turd, your blog is going viral, dude.

  32. Brian, if Wynter is genuine her group are not demanding delivery. They are demanding a cash premium.

  33. At the COT cutoff today, 1:30 pm est! If we haven't an orchestrated bankster raid by then, it appears turds 31 double top defense is next stop for blythers!! Blow through that and it's over for the morgue until we get Turks 40% rapid move he predicted to 36! Know the rot, rotting, & complete rotten banksters fighting to keep status quo power intact! All the kings men can't put humpty back together again! dead head feds are losing it at a much more accelerated rate it appears!! When oil blows over 100, it's the death nail to recovery propaganda economy!! When you're a vampire squid juggling chain saws, tentacles get loped off with too many in the air!! Appears we're there!!

  34. No risk tolerance here for Great Panther, but I did lay in a little HL and PAAS yesterday, so, life is good. For now...

  35. afrum!!

    When I first saw some of your posts I thought Oh Boy!! A little Nutty!!, but now I gotta admit I kind of miss you when you're gone!! Always good for a smile!!!!!!!

  36. If you are using Firefox you can get an add on called Live Gold which will give you updates on all the metals on the bottom of the screen.

  37. @ 2015 gold peak and Martin Armstrong
    Martin Armstrong is either one of the best economic cycle theorists in the world, or one of the best con men in the world.
    My personal feeling is, having studied peak oil extensively, that at some point around 2015 the world will figure out how unprepared we are for peak oil, and that zero economic growth will be the norm. At that point wealth will move from the storage vehicle of gold into investing in new survival infrastructure. So gold might drop from $10,000 (in today's dollars) to $5000 over the following decade, or something like that. The sooner gold goes up, the higher it can go, before all of the fake paper wealth disappears back into the ether. It's like the wealth is running to gold for safety before it's destroyed by deflation; which will be permanent due to peak oil.

  38. just picked up 10K Great Panther - when a CDN stock gets listed on AMEX it's usually good. Tie this in with a good company, good leverage with a low price per share, and silver knocking on the $30 door - looks like a shoe-in.

  39. all i can say Turd :

    FUBM !

    thumbs up

  40. This action looks just like Aug-Nov. Hard on the bid, never letting up.

    Here we go....

  41. I guess I've got enough gray hair to know that anytime something looks like a shoe-in, it's time to worry.

  42. The only thng EE has successfully defended so far is at the 1000 Euro mark for gold. It's ripping the face off of every other fiat.

  43. Here's a little tidbit today from Sprott.


  44. Just realized that a few months ago I just happened to write down the following numbers on a little notepad:

    1370 Dollars
    1000 Euros
    850 Pounds

    So where are we now? Just goes to show how we need to ignore the short term twists and turns in exchange rates.

  45. I am just enjoying the day thus far. I too have enough gray hair to worry just a little bit.

    I think I am going to go out and by some glorious SILVER and fondle it. Maybe rub it on my nuts. Yea, that's what I'm talkin bout!

  46. Brian,

    I didn't need that visual. THx

  47. AAAAAAAAND we're off to the races! Silver is at $30.18, Gold is still at $1367, Bubblegum is chewing up the track and Toilet Paper is wiping up the rear!

    Seriously, silver is going nuts again.

  48. @ Pat

    Cheers on Great Panther (GPL). The market likes 2.3 million oz of silver production now on the Amex.... 3.8 by 2012...

    The volume on this baby is ridiculous.

    Lotta these miners looking to make big moves... Once market establishes its bullishness, the speculative stocks should gain more attention as their risk/reward is just so strong...
    Scott J

  49. oh yes, definitely closing above 30 today

  50. @Eric

    I've got grey hair, and I'm worried too, but when have I not been? Ride that Panther!

  51. Looks like we have lift off, boys....

    Ya couldn't make this story up !

    Thanks Turd

  52. Turd,

    Look back at the archives and check out the original discussions about Wynter on this board.

    I think it is safe to say she has our attention.

    I for one said before this has the ring of truth, and there is not one thing that has occurred yet to make me change my mind.

    Call options are looking pretty good right now.

    Who cares if "they" are in it for the premium or to take delivery. Either way, I suspect today's price action is the start of something big. There were SOOO many other reasons for silver to take off, this Wynter thing is really just the fuse it needed.

    We shall see...

  53. I keep an eagle ion my desk all day at work to show my colleagues. I have won a few over. Last night the brother in law emailed and asked how to convert his hefty IRA into silver! Price does not matter.

  54. And zzz28, thanks for that suggestion. VERY NICE addon, it's dirt simple to get going. Now I have my prices all the time without going to Kitco.

  55. I too jumped in on Great Panther @ 2.60 (thank you Turd's blog since it was here where I read about it).
    Anyway...it's 2.80 now...very nice. But does anyone following Great Panther have any insite on an exit point? Is this sucker possibly going up a lot further??

  56. I am turning chinese. PHYSICAL BITCHEZZ!

  57. I'm not sure about others, but I'm comfortable with holding Great Panther for a good long time, it will rise with silver prices, and IMHO there will be a lot of purchasing interest because it's an "affordable" stock.

    Man, it sure feels nice once to get in ahead of the crowd.

  58. Turd, thank you very much for all of your great work. I must say your blog holds the #1 spot in my books.

  59. @Save_America

    who can really say re Great Panther - but my rule of thumb (works surprisingly well, but take it for what it's worth) is, if I own a stock that triples from where I bought, I sell. With the way things are looking I think GPR (TSE) can hit 6 for sure. I'll sell around $7.50. Again - just my thoughts, no advice here.

  60. Thanks Eric! Headed to your Sprott tidbit!

  61. Hey Brian, You just made me really glad that this stuff is anti-microbial...

  62. "Turd Ferguson said...

    ... The Kitco chart is a live spot chart, not delayed."

    I wish Kitco included the word "Spot" in their heading, instead of just calling it "24 Hour Gold"--specificity would eliminate fuzziness and confusion.

  63. http://www.avino.com/s/Home.asp

    I remember Avino from the mid 1990's, which was the last time I did any thing with junior miners. Their projects have had "potential" for decades, LOL! Anybody on this blog current with Avino? Or have an opinion?

  64. @ Save America1st

    While I do not have the exact numbers, this stock still has some in the pump in my opinion. If you look at where it was 6 months ago, you may gasp as it is now up 400%. I got in at 1.17ish for a modest position, but I think this stock is going to be a major player in the future.

    The reason I say that is look at what is coming. If there is indeed a physical silver shortage, the market is going to be looking to leverage in physical silver. Well obviously not everyone will be able to buy physical silver (can't acquire it/premiums to high), so mining equities are going to be the first option for non-physical buyers.

    Because of that, I believe that the market will value all production companies to their resource content (as there will be no better investment, the market will use looking forward projections with a utter bullishness for silver's future... Remember, a hypothetical comex default/silver shortage on March 29th would drive silver over 50$ nominal price.

    Real price of silver should be near 100$, as this bull hasn't even started. I am thinking about what silver stocks are going to look like at $150, $500,.... silver and I am not ready to call an exit point yet....

    I think I remember reading only about .4% of GDP is in gold/silver/precious metal stocks as of a year ago, we have a long way to go to get to that equilibrium...


    Always do diligent research
    Scott J

  65. Scott J
    Do you personally feel that Great Panther is still a good buy at these levels?? Where do you see it going from here?? Do you and others have any other strong junior recommendations??
    Thanks for all the work Turd and Turdites!!

  66. Suez Strike:


    Oil could be a good pickup here.

  67. @ Christine

    I believe it depends on your risk tolerance. Do I think that Great Panther will go over 100% from current levels? Personally yes with ease.

    Do I believe it could go up 1000% from these levels? Well with $50 Silver, $100 Silver... the product that these companies are selling would go up 100%. The cost to mine stays relatively flat (maybe increases a little bit), but the higher that silver goes... the higher the profits of these companies. Remember, a lot of silver miners got killed in the 08 credit crunch and could not mine at a profit at a artificially low $9 silver spot price... all pure silver mines got killed. A lot of stocks have a lot of ground to make up, as the profits will be rolling in soon...

    A note that you should also know is that a lot of these companies are using silver price of 25$ in their contracts. Just because the spot price is 30$ does not mean they are able to create large contracts at $30. The longer prices stay at these levels, I expect a continual increase in all silver and gold miners... (but especially silver).

    I have links to stocks I think are good in my thread. I block my portfolio but I provide all the tools to find the gems for yourself (with a lot of hints about my favorites).
    Scott J

  68. Ok guys. I just stuck my pinky toe back into the shark tank for the first time in 15 years by buying a harmless little bit of Great Panther, and Avino. That pretty much means the top is in, and you boys better duck for cover. Just sayin..

  69. Thanks Scott. That is great. You are the best (and Turd of course!!)

  70. Ya know...silver has been known for it's healing properties. Just sayin'

  71. Great Panther was the NIA pick from last October. I was a little skeptical when my buddy hit me up for the 500 bucks to split the cost for the tip. Best 500 bucks I ever spent! We got in at 1.16 and have jumped in and out on some spikes. Its hit 2.90+ and then dipped a good way before coming back. That may be out the window though with the AMEX listing. The company looks real good an I don't see getting out 100% until 6.50 - 7.00 bucks.

  72. 90 minutes to go.
    Keep in mind that this is a Tuesday.
    For now, watch $30 very closely. A close above would he huge.
    If Blythe tries to attack...and we get more FUBMs...the Benton rumor will look more and more like reality.

  73. I guess they are having a crisis meeting @ Morgue atm. Will be an interesting chess game.

  74. @martinjm:

    Chess game?? Sounds to me like they are down a rook, a knight and a queen!

  75. GPR et al. I got in at 0.3 (eur) and still holding. Really great stock.

  76. I bought GPL at .85....still long still strong.

    I found a lot of these varoius juniors by looking through the archives at 321gold. Bob Moriarty does pretty good write up on the junior sectors.

    Far be it from me to give picks. I really don't a fuck, and I employed the shotgun tactic to juniors (I just turned 30). I have around 6 that I threw some money at. I have made money on all of them.

    I plan on selling all the miners and my metals when DOW = Gold. Until then, it's all noise.

    Word to the Turd.

    FWIW, I am still skeptical of this yahoo board character. Of all places to post. Read some of the earlier posts, and it appears that this person calling for silver above $50 by Dec 2010.

    "Re: Blythe is finished today!!! 28-Sep-10 01:33 pm Silver will be at least $25 in less than 2 weeks. Blythe knows it. JD knows it. and soon the whole world will know that JPM is dead. Silver is going to $50 in less than 2 months and infinity when JPM is bankrupt!!!

    Save yourself JPM traders. Join the winning side, the long side.

    You're going home in a body bag, do-da, do-da. . . . "

    Conviently a rally happened today, and script was crafted around this. Had the action been poor today, I would imagine another story would have been crafted. Something to the extent of "our group has decided to wait another day or two because of ___________"

    It's all noise. Wait for Dow = Gold then trade metal for blue chips like MSFT that you will be able to buy for sub $2.

  77. Christine: My personal opinion is tht GPL is a steal at these levels. Not sure how many of you also follow the NIA and/or Jon Lebed's blog.. but he has posted that he sees Great Panther going to $50/share this decade. The NIA & Lebed have been right...alot.

    Check out Silvermex as well(GGCRF). They have news out today and it's a company I like alot. Scott: interested to know your opinion on silvermex.

    Turd: Will you be addressing the ramifications of this Wynter Benton deal more thoroughly in a blog post? I'm with you.. it's fascinating but I'm not sure we all realize the full potentially explosive nature of this if indeed it is legit.

  78. I was doing some quick DD on my old friend Avino, and saw that Sprott owns a big chunk of it now. That was all I needed to know.

  79. Turd, I'm also a little confused about the Kitco quotes. What is the price they are showing? I assumed it was the front-month contract but apparently not.

  80. Before getting too carried away, just keep in mind that Wynter Benton is actually a 24-year old stripper in San Francisco,

  81. Thanks for the info on Great Panther you guys. Definitely liked what I saw with it, but just wasn't sure what the long term outlook might be for it...I also followed silvergoldsilver on his Tinka (TKRFF) tip and it's looking real good so far. Check his website out for his analysis of it.


    thanks to Turd as always for the great site and all who contribute for newbs like me.

  82. This move is insane today. Been a while since we've had a strong up-trend like this in the metals, I think it's going to last for a while too. They seem totally disconnected from all other news and are just doing their own thing just as they should be. Thanks to the Turd I added some more silver right near this last bottom!

  83. The further we get away from Turd's Bottom the better it looks!

  84. Thinking about selling some positions at the end of today, and possibly buying into the dip tomorrow. I would almost be very weary if we had two great days like this in a row. I have learned to be cautious when the times are good.

  85. Wow, the lack of almost any downward pressure for the entire session is STUNNING

  86. @RoCoach
    "Before getting too carried away, just keep in mind that Wynter Benton is actually a 24-year old stripper in San Francisco,
    http://www.myredbook.com/showpro.aspx?id=1098 "

    Love the comments:

    "Good lap technique but poor attitude."

    Sounds like Blythe and her monkeys.

  87. It did this for a while when I first bought in when James Turk called $30 within 18 days back in October. I didn't get in till $24.10 and I haven't lost a penny since regardless of the temporary dips. Lately, go with the flow and BTFD's, they're worth it.

  88. Turd: This post kept me long my 100+ SLV calls when it was darkest...

    "We are rolling and our bottoms are looking more secure than ever. Let's just keep it up for another 90 minutes or so. If you want something to pull for, watch March silver very closely. A close above $27.80 and we'll have ourselves and UPward outside reversal day and that would be a very big deal. It would almost ensure that last evening saw the low and mean that, though a near re-test was still possible, even that becomes unlikely."


    You will likely earn a donation when this is all said and done!

  89. I'm pretty much an Armstrong follower as well. His key target dates seem to be nearly always correct. I always look at those dates with respect to Jim Sinclair's 'Angel' prices. The most interesting time from Armstrong's perspective looks like March, in which he says there could be a turning point (intermediate top), with an opposite reaction starting in June towards higher highs. Makes sense from many perspectives (State, municipal debt..), but not from the 'sell in May, and go away' perspective. So many possibilities, the only thing you can count on is drama.

  90. Stay nimble. Silver is starting to look overbought (pierced upper Bollinger, RSI and W%R). MACD indicates there may still be room to run. Also, rising markets can remain overbought for a long time.

  91. All looks good but I wouldn't be surprised by a Death Star margin increase to dampen things a bit..

  92. JP Morgan related news. Two of their exec's were killed in a small plane crash in northern Iraq.


  93. Back to Wynter being a stripper. Puts a whole new meaning on her comment: "The Group is operating in the Theater."

  94. closed AGQ for the day. expect will have a nice dip tomorrow to buy back in

  95. Chris, RoCoach, Silver Cell,

    I'm with you...I sold all of my Feb options today.
    Personally, I took an Occam's Razor view of the Benton posts, but regardless of those posts or not we all felt silver was going up anyway.

    WB said she'd start buying Feb 8., but unless I missed it I saw no mention of the frequency of their buying plans. Whatever's going on inside The Morgue right now probably doesn't bode well for silver in the extreme near term, though I defer to TF's opinion on that

    My $.02 - thanks guys

  96. If you want to see something interesting, put "Wynter Benton" into Google search:

  97. My heart says sell, but my head says just hang on to my AGQ. Trying to time it right now might shut me out of some serious gains. Here's a couple of quotes I found over at zerohedge:

    "The Russell view - It's virtually impossible to successfully time in-and-out trades
    during an ongoing primary bull market. Usually what happens is that the trader has
    moved out of the market just as the bull trend resumes. Thus, the bull market does
    what it's supposed to do - advance while leaving most traders and Johnny-Come-Latelies
    Richard Russell, Jan 26, 2011

    "It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting."
    Jesse Livermore

  98. Kiwi (and others), What are your thoughts as to why AGQ is flat today....while other juniors are moving on up?? why does your heart say sell??

  99. CD... Were you trying to do this:

    Very interesting. :-)

  100. @Pick52

    I'm not out yet. This move could continue for much longer. I will get out (of paper) as soon as it appears the move is over. I'm holding onto my physical no matter what.

  101. Christine-

    The AGQ I'm refering to is the ProShares Ultra Silver ETF (NYSE:AGQ). It basically goes up (or down, dammit) at twice the rate of the current silver gain (or loss, dammit). Today it gained about 6.4% (so far), which is a heck of a gain if you have a couple hundred shares. Of course, it can be a real free fall if silver goes down.

    I've made a hefty bit of change on AGQ in the last few days as it recovered, and my greedy emotional self says to book the profit...but then I look at the potential upside, and the likelyhood of losing overnight gains...this puppy could do some amazing overnights in the next few weeks.

    I also don't have enough cash lying around to just go from one trade to the next, I have to wait for the sale to clear before the money is available for the next. So I could lose 2 or 3 days of gain before being able to buy back in.

    Ultimately, I don't need the money anytime soon, and so my brain tells me to sit on my hands, curb my impulse to churn my own account, and just enjoy the rise.

    Now, if only my cotton would get back in the black....

  102. So Wynter and Turd are the same person???

  103. More from "Wynter Benton"

    How will this end?

    When the comex blows up on its own. We will be accepting hefty cash premiums to let them continue the game. This thread will ilustrate the evolution of our thinking. Initially, we thought about busting the Comex, but then realized it is much more profitable to take the premium until comex busts itself.


    You can see in this thread that I mentioned that Wynter Benton is not my real name. It would be like looking up 'Tyler Durden' or 'Turd Ferguson' on google.

    You can see that we were preparing for this a long time ago and now we are executing our plan. Of course, our forces are much more formidable now than when I posted on this thread on Oct 1, 2010.

    Again, I can't answer direct questions about the logistics of what our traders are doing. I have been tasked by Blythe's former traders to get out the word of the imploding explosion in silver. That is all.

  104. I've been debating what to do with my AGQ all day as well. I'm thinking I might sell half and try to buy back in tomorrow. Just doesn't seem like this can last. I got burned last time the EE brought silver back down from $31. Don't want it to happen again.

  105. Url for the post above: http://tinyurl.com/6cpukay

  106. LoL, all of the searches for Wynter Benton return pics of Turd's charts... wait a minute! Who is that man in the hat?

  107. I haven't seen anyone commenting on the divergence between gold and silver today. The charts (toggle between them on kitco) look very strange- almost perfectly identical even down to the big move up at 8:30. They stayed the same right up until 10:00 EST, then silver just starts doing its own thing, relentlessly moving up. Gold has just futzed around in the same 5$ trading range since then.

    Don't know if this supports the Wynter theory, but silver's solo breakout sure looks suspicious. Perhaps something is afoot at the circle-K...

  108. RoCoach, Mike

    I trade AGQ options and the downside risk so close to Feb expiration is not worth it for me personally. I got burned in November so I'd rather take my 5 bagger and roll forward to March!

    Without a doubt, if I just held shares I'd just put trailing stop on and enjoy the ride

  109. silvrbull: Very cool she mentions Turd by name in that post. Just for fun, click on her name in the message board and it brings you to a Yahoo Pulse page with the name "Amber Reeves" from Alexandria, VA. Google search pops up an Amber Reeves (of the same age) from VA who just graduated from the police academy. Curiouser and Curiouser. Who is Wynter-Amber and why does she thrill me?

  110. Here's the way I look at it. We have had about 11 up days since our lows of 26.50 and have gained almost 4 dollars from that point at well. Which is a hell of a run, and might just be time for a small pull back after some great gains today. Just as well, it might not.

    Tomorrow we can expect one of three things.

    1. Price continues to rise with no set backs.

    2. Price gets hammered by EE, has a minor set back(buying opportunity) where we buy the dip and continue our merry way.

    3. Price gets monkey hammered and a reversal is attempted and we possibly have a down day.

    It just makes sense to take some profits off the table, and free up some cash for what might come tomorrow. Worst case scenario is it keeps going up and my positions that are still open continue to make money on already great gains.

    Better to be a little conservative than to always be all in. I have lost quite a bit of money on the latter strategy.

    I owe a lot of my new found wisdom to Turd.

    So there is my 2 cents.

  111. @ Ginger

    I am heavily invested in Silvermex (GGCRF), as it is my largest market % in my portfolio currently. I am in this position for a few reasons...

    One, the merger brings together capital that Genco needed from its 08 fall, and two competent companies working together in my opinion with knowledge of how strong the silver market is gonna be with their resources makes me happy...

    From a technical reason, they have been there before. I look at a stock that has used to be at 4.40 cents before the manufactured artificial suppression and I see its "lack of revenue" because of lagging silver prices as almost a sure-thing bet. There have been problems with "debt" for Genco in the past, but the risk/reward here is far superior in my opinion.

    You don't have to look far to read things on the potential that Genco Has.. and I believe it will be one of the first stocks to "really take off" as a producer/speculative combo.
    That is just my 2 cents though...

    Highly bullish on silver miners...
    Arian/Genco/Revett are my current top 3 market valuations. Looking forward to watching these ride :)

    DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH!! I am a 22 year old who looks at information, not a "certified" analyst..
    But your research may bring you to similar conclusions I have..

    I am thinking what these silver stocks will be in a silver physical short squeeze...

    Glad I am in them now...I think its gonna be the greatest rags to riches story in our modern financial system.
    Scott J

  112. Forgot to add, the news published by Silvermex today can be located here!


  113. OK lets play a game with all of the intellectual firepower that exists on this board.

    Lets try to think like the enemy, JPM.

    What are they thinking about right now?

    Here's my guess:

    As has been hinted at, I think they recognize that Wynter's plot targets one of their soft vulnerable spots. So, given the "advance warning", they have been trying to turn the tables by coming up with all of the physical they can for a couple of reasons:

    1. If they actually deliver on a large number of the contracts which stand for delivery, they can take the steam out of the plot, bc these guys are not "silver crusaders" (like WE are!), they are criminal greedy bankers who will seel their mother for a buck. No premium == failed mission. Granted, they have a lot of silver (which we would love!), but that's not their self professed game.

    2. If JPM sells contracts at $25-28, and gets $40 or so for delivering physical silver, they make a huge profit.

    We also know from the COT reports that at least JPM has been covering their shorts. Ted Butler estimated in his last newsletter they are down to around 19,ooo short contracts.

    SO ergo, it might be in their best interest here to let the paper price of silver run up quite a bit.

    Then deliver the silver, make a profit, crash the paper price as everyone runs away, cover the rest of their shorts, and who knows....if I were JPM, I would be loooking for an opportunity to THEN turn on a dime and GO LONG, once my short position is gone and I can let fundamentals take over.

    Let's be constructive here... I think this Benton thing is for real. You have to make TOOO many suppositions to explain it away. So let's figure out the enemy's NEXT move, to all of our benefit.

  114. I love bit.ly!
    Not only can you shorten those nasty long URLs, but you get great statistics too. For example, I know that my google>wynter link got 24 clicks in the last 33 minutes and you get a cool QRcode to boot!

    bit.ly stats

  115. Yes it's cool that this person "Wynter Benton" mentions Turd.

    "I have been tasked by Blythe's former traders to get out the word of the imploding explosion in silver."

    I hope she meant impending instead of imploding ;)

  116. hahaha yep "imploding explosion" is a great oxymoron.

  117. Cris-

    Great thought experiment. It seems to me that your scenario hinges on JPM being able to come up with a truly huge amount of physical silver. On the one hand, you could say that this explains the 6.5 million eagles sold from the mint in January, reported shortages of 100 oz bars everywhere, etc. - JPM sucking up available physical to enact this strategy.

    On the other hand you have Eric Sprott saying it took three months just to get 150 mil OZ for his fund (and JPM would need far more than that), so therefore there is not enough supply available to carry out this strategy.

    My 2-cents is that JPM is arrogant as hell, would believe they could just manipulate paper like they always have, and therefore wouldn't have had the foresight or the time to obtain the physical to pull off a move like this. But that's just my opinion.

  118. Cris,

    I think you're dead-on. One factor I would add, though, is the very real possibility of a major silver price spike causing contagion and crashing the entire House of Cards.

    If I were JPM, I would be, um, "encouraging" the mainstream media to run special reports that: 1) Tout silver's many uses, and 2) Call attention to the physical shortages. Get a "silver is no longer a monetary metal, now only an industrial metal" me-me out there front and center for the sheeple.

    At that point, Blythe can crush gold and let silver run (possibly) without collapsing the USD.

    As Pining points out above, the gold/silver dislocation may be starting already.

  119. i'm just saying that we have seen dips on wednesday traditionally. if there is no dip tomorrow can buy back in on thursday and ride it

  120. This comment has been removed by the author.

  121. This shit is so cool it's giving me headaches! I'm absolutely amazed by the way thing seem to unfold.. It's as if we are all part of some kind of sick movie.

    I'm trying hard to understand where all this is going and how to benefit from it. Just owning physical doesn't cut it for me.. Will we end up seeing the true value of silver or will we get slaughtered. To me, this stuff is kind of scary. But proud to be part of it at the same time.

  122. CO_Dan and Pining,

    Here's another thought.

    JPM is custodian to SLV.

    I know you guys all think SLV is bs.

    once again, I will defer to Ted Butler on this who has ALWAYS vouched for the legitmiacy of SLV.

    Even if some of it is bs, there is a potnetial MOUNTAIN of silver there for JPM to play with in just this type of scenario.

    Anyways, my point with this "thought experiment" ( I love that phrase btw) is how do WE benefit.

    I've said it before, I'll say it again -- this scenario is CRYING out for an options play. I think we are going to see a big run up in price over the next few weeks REGARDLESS of how this plays out in the intermediate term.

    And in the LONG term, we all KNOW how this will play out -- with silver attaining its true value.

    But let's think like the banksters and figure out how to best profit from this in the short term, recognizing that in the long term, physical is the way to go.


  123. Cris,
    I try not to worry too much about Wynter Benton, because frankly I don't know what to believe. And I try not to worry too much about goings on at the COMEX in general because frankly I don't understand it all. You know the saying about being at a poker game and you don't know who the sucker is...

    All I know for sure is that JPM, in serving their masters whoever they may be, have an interest in controlling the Ag price. Given the recent action, if I were them I would be trying to pick the spot where the most people have gotten overly long, and then try to slam it good and hard. It will be interesting then to see what price point serves as support. 29? 28? 26.50? I don't know, but whatever it is, it will be confirmed as really good solid support.

  124. I'm another one who thinks this might have something to do with the news of the Suez canal workers going on strike.

  125. Apparent the close above 30 stuffed a ruff cob up jpig morgue's tailpipe!! I'll be ready for operation preparation "H" Wednesday!!

  126. If it had anything to do with Suez shouldn't gold be todays winner?

  127. @ Martijn Volatility is a fact with precious metals, you have to accept that as part of the deal, and do your homework. I'm trying to be in for the long haul, as I started buying at $28 last fall and have been buying dips since then. I believe that the true value of gold and silver cannot be suppressed much longer given the current and ongoing instability of the world economy.

  128. Re: Silver availability -- when it comes to finding large quantities of silver, I'll bet that JP Morgan has more resources than does Eric Sprott. He has to buy on the open market, while it's very possible that JPM has other sources, JP is hardwired into many governments I'm sure.

  129. If it's not news-based, both gold and silver spiking at the same time supports the theory that someone is manipulating both markets.

  130. Yeah JPM is SLV's custodian - they could buy up (or print?) some SLV "shares" and then, as custodian, cash them in and get tons of real silver and actually deliver the stuff to the Wynter crowd - who don't really want it - they want to get a cash offer. What does Wynter crowd then do with the silver that was delivered to them? Buy it if they can, or if not - pay to get out of their commitment - could JPM turn the tables? I hope not, I hope the above is a stretch - I'm long big time...

  131. lord koos-

    We must never ever forget who we are up against.

  132. @ Cris -- I think the thought experiment was played out here in the comments section a few days/weeks ago, but I can't find it. As far as I can remember, even coming up with 25% of the silver required to 'scare off 25%' of "Wynter's Army" to dissuade them from trying again in June would be difficult if not impossible for JPM to pull off. But I may be wrong, if someone remembers the conversation I am talking about, pls. post a link.

  133. Cris,

    "2. If JPM sells contracts at $25-28, and gets $40 or so for delivering physical silver, they make a huge profit."

    If they sell contracts at $25-$28 and it goes to $40, they have to cough up their silver or settle the contracts for cash. How exactly does that result in them making a huge profit?

  134. The Morgue and Apmex are in the same building. Supposedly Apmex switched their bank over to the Morgue too.

  135. flaunt

    yeah, I was thinking the same thing.

    remember my poker game analogy

  136. CD,

    I remember that discussion bc I participated in it.

    But i think Antrobus made a GREAT point just above -- JPM is custodian to SLV. And as lord koos said, JPM must be "hard-wired" into a lot of sources for silver that are not, shall we say, on the open market.

    These guys aren't amateurs.

    We shall see...

  137. Patrick Heller's Liberty outlook for 2011(Great Read)


  138. So Wynter and Turd are the same person???


  139. Cris, I am not doubting the means and villainousness of the Morgue in the least. I wish I remembered the quantities in question. I am merely suggesting that we may be approaching the bounds set by laws of physics & available silver inventory (regardless of WHOSE silver it is). Is there that much out there?

    That WB's plans could be thwarted by lots and lots of physical is, I suppose, possible -- but where would silver price go as a result of that?

  140. Chris,

    You're forgetting why JPM is shorting silver... it's not really about profit, they're protecting the Fed by keeping a lid on PM prices at all cost... if they lose, Ben has lots of money (or computer entries)to cover it.

  141. Cris, Flaunt, Eric,

    I could see Blythe allowing the price to run up to $40 (or even $40+) by March 1, taking everybody's cash down to stand for delivery, then crashing the price back to $30 starting March 2.

    She'd get some nice liquidations from over-leveraged SHK types. Kind of a repeat of what she did in January, only on a grander scale.

  142. Flaunt,

    Perhaps I have misunderstood.

    But if JPM sells contracts for $25-28, and then RECEIVES $40/oz for the silver they bought at $25-28, isn't that a profit??? They don't simply cough up the silver, they ALSO get the cash in return.

    Benton herself posted as much on Jan 21:


    This is what your former traders are saying. If this is true than I am truly impress (in a Machiavellian sort of way). They are saying that Blythe is slamming down the price of paper silver and at the same time is accumulating untold physical ounces of silver throughout the world. We had only foreseen that Blythe will slam down the price of silver in her quest to shake out the Comex contrat holders. We had never thought that The Morgue would be using such a shakeout to accumulate vast amount of physical silver in order to protect themselves from the raid that is about to come.

    However, if this is true, then you can bet everything you have that come March 1st, the price of silver (both paper and physical) will be much higher than it is today. You see on March 1st, we will be dealing in physical deliveries and not on paper contracts. There is no way that Blythe will be forking over her hard fought physical silver that she has been accumulating recently (and will be accumulating up until March 1st) to us "raiders".

    If, in fact, Blythe is accumulating physical silver to be delivered, then why on earth would you allow traders to purchase physical silver on March 1st for less than what you paid for it? Come March 1st the price of paper silver will be over $40 and even that might not stop the raid that is being planned. But at $40 an ounce, The Morgue will make it that much more difficlut to raid the Comex and ensure that every ounce of silver that is delivered will be profitable to Blythe.

  143. SRV ES339,

    I think their ultimate goal is keeping a lid on GOLD prices.

    Silver not so much right now.

    Hence the postulated coming divergence.

    Or not.

  144. What is amazing about all of our speculation about this, is that we will see - in the real world - how it actually plays out over the next two months. I mean, it is one thing to wargame these ideas in a comments section, but unlike most such threads, this one will play out for everyone to see. Incredible.

    As an aside, I just wanted to note what a pleasure it is to exchange ideas, see different sides and opinions presented respectfully and thoughtfully, without the acidic flame-wars and ego trips you see elsewhere. Big kudos to the "grownups" here- you make this the best informed, most helpful comments section anywhere. And kudos to Turd for setting the tone of discussion.

  145. I echo the Norwegian Blue's comments - a great blog - a nice touch is the "real time" aspect - good comments pour in in a timely fashion.

  146. I finally have a new post for everyone.
    Thanks for your patience.

  147. If they sell a contract at $25 then they get $25 bucks per ounce at delivery. If they bought the physical at $20 and deliver it then they would make money on the physical, but not off of the contract itself. A short seller wants the price of the underlying to decrease in value so they can cover at a lower price or let the contract expire.

    This site has some basic info about how futures work: http://about.ag/futures.htm

    I think what Benton was saying is that if they allow the price to rise, then they're making it more expensive for funds to purchase contracts and thus harder to raid JPM's physical stores. And if they were to crush the paper price even further, and funds stood for delivery anyway, then JPM would have to give up their physical silver for less than they paid. In other words, if JPM acquired physical for $26/oz and they continued shorting down to $20, then some fund bought paper at $20 and stood for delivery, JPM would lose $6 on their physical as well as the physical itself which is highly valuable.

    Hope that makes sense.

  148. Thanks Scott..for your input re: Silvermex. It is currently my largest postion of juniors as well. Also have position in RVMID but not in Arian. Will check it out. ..Seems we 'evaluate' and think alike!

  149. @Lord Koos

    I've been doing my homework since 2001! With gold $250 and silver $5. Was not into physical but 2 stocks only being DRD and BGO... Lost a fortune on DRD (Durban Roodepoort Deep) (Thanks JPM!) and made a fortune on BGO (Bema, eventually bought by Kinross).
    Decided in 2005 to never come near the markets because of the insane manipulation.
    But have to protect my purchasing power just like all of us. I think the EUR will survive but the debasing will continue for sure.

    Back then we were haunted on the Yahoo boards by FearVisciousRaptor. I think he was a trader at JPM shorting the shit out of DRD and others. There's always something in the way these guys are communicating on these forums. Cryptic, freaky and just weird.. There was also a very experienced and well respected person on that board with the name Bondbroker2000. Anyone familiar with him? Never heard of him again.. Always thought it was Mr. Sinclair himself.. But who knows.

    I'm sure that yahoo boards are also being used by the big manipulators. It doesnt surprise me Wynter is communicating there also... It's kind of deja vu for me but this time it seems to be the other way around.

    I'm accumulating physical only and looking forward to the next dip to add to my position. It seems this big dip will be here somewhere in March.

  150. @ Martijm thanks for your comments, you obviously understand more about markets than I do. I'm BTFD too...

  151. I also agree that probably the most important goal for the Fed and the banks is to suppress gold -- that's the biggie. I plan to turn some of my silver into gold when the ratio gets more favorable.

  152. Great! I was searching for this for months now. Wow can't believe it i just got it! I'm glad i found this forum. Thanks! gray hair reversal