While I slept, I see that April crude spiked to $103.41. Wow! Though it has since pulled back to 99 and change, events in the Middle East continue to spin wildly out of control and must be watched very closely. As the tumult grows and spreads, expect a positive impact on the price of gold. The chart looks great and demand may soon suddenly increase so...lets just say I'm not looking to sell any of my April calls just yet.
Oh, and here's your updated hourly chart. Gotta say, that's about as solid as it gets:
While we collectively hold our breath watching every tick in the silver market, here's a chart to chew on:
That's it for now. I've got lasts of 1415 and 33.18. Don't stray too far from a computer today. This promises to be a another wild ride. TF
10:30 EST UPDATE:
Note that silver bottomed at the exact same time yesterday and at the exact same price. No, there's no manipulation here. None, at all.
At any rate, IF the EE is successful in taking out 33 later, they would still have to take out 32.70 before I'd get nervous. On the other hand, a strong bounce today, like yesterday, off of the morning lows and UP to 33.75 will again be met with EE resistance. If/when that level is bested, look out!
12:15 EST UPDATE:
Today is a lot like the previous two days. There have been repeated attempts to accelerate price downward but each attempt has failed to significantly breach 33. Lets watch the close to see if we can fight off Blythe yet again and close green.
And I think its safe to say that President O'bottom regrets this photograph...Yikes!
Good stuff turd, as always. Looking to watch the precious metals roll, as crude over $100 can't be hidden from the world, as that is quite a psychological number.
ReplyDeleteI took the time to write a little bit about mining equities. These are my opinion, but may be a good start for anyone who is considering mining stocks, without understanding what is going to drive them in the future.
The case for Mining Equities
Let us see if there is indeed a comex default in march, I am almost starting to root against it myself... as it really will bring all of our financial demons out of the bag very fast..
-
Watching closely today.
-
Scott J
Fucking Blythe. There were like 65 bids at $33.10.
ReplyDeleteWow fierce downdraft...
ReplyDeleteGood morning, Blythe!
ReplyDeleteScott: I hear ya. As much as I shout "PREPARE", I'm not ready.
Please keep in mind that yesterday we bottomed AT THIS EXACT SAME TIME at 32.98 before sprinting higher. Let's see what happens.
ReplyDeleteCouple red bars on the daily charts, people are going to start taking profits pretty soon to lock in some profits. If it goes through 32.50 going to be a big, big down round.
ReplyDeleteI guess half the world burning isnt good enough right now for $34...
ReplyDeletedo you really believe that every move in silver is determined by Blythe Masters, or is that all just said in good fun? Just curious.
ReplyDeleteOne last downdraft this a.m. before catapulting much higher? I think so personally. Iron hand on the tiller as Mr. Dines might say. Long April, July, and January SLV CALLS!
ReplyDeleteI mean, does silver ever go down because investors are selling, or is every downturn due solely to Blythe?
ReplyDelete"do you really believe that every move in silver is determined by Blythe Masters, or is that all just said in good fun? Just curious."
ReplyDeleteMe personally no :) but it is good fun to blame every red candle on the jp morg.
It seems like "this current saga is ending and that the EE will survive until May".
ReplyDeletethese days BM.
ReplyDeleteI am a buyer (AGQ) this morning if we get to the 32.70ish area.
Everything is not Blyth,BUT when you see silver go down 40 cents in like 30 seconds that is not people selling. And why would people sell when it looks to be clearly going through the roof. Suppress silver and lots of secrets remain in the closet. Let silver free, and bankrupt JPM.
ReplyDeleteI used to hate the Chinese government the most. Now I hate JP Morgue/AIG/Wank of America and Wells Retardo even more. Down with the bank. I'd blow each of them up if I didn't have to go to jail for it.
I'm not a terrorist!!
That's very interesting, Turd. I hope today that level becomes also the low. For the moment it's going well.
ReplyDeleteDo the bankers have access to the "up to the minute" OI numbers so they know how they are faring?
ReplyDeleteIs it just me or is the volume really light in silver? Maybe it's because of the contracts rolling over?
ReplyDeleteI see GPL is on sale today anybody buying?
ReplyDeleteRandy, I would just like to see enforcement of "real" accounting practices at the TBTFs. Then we both could see them blow up.
ReplyDeleteBrian: No, of course the EE isn't responsible for every down tick. However, years of observation have made me quite adept at seeing their fingerprints on the sudden downdrafts.
ReplyDeleteLooks like we held at $33
ReplyDeleteDave,
ReplyDeleteI noticed the same thing at netdania's chart.
There is a definite curve of volume on the netdania silver chart where the volume seems to be heavier in Dec/Jan than now.
My assumption is that people are moving from paper into physical.
I'm still worried about a dollar rally when the U.S. 'safeguards' Libya's oil infrastructure.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.prisonplanet.com/obama-prepares-invasion-of-libya-under-humanitarian-cover.html
FXC -- Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold: I bought in at ~$53.17 (dumb), and don't know whether to cut bait or wait for the tide to raise all boats.
ReplyDeleteI like those two analogies combined.
Any thoughts?
The real price of silver is around $150. Everybody knows this. I am buying more today.
ReplyDeleteScottJ - interesting correlation between the bid/ask on AUNFF and GGCRF. They seem to have had their algos aligned together overnight. They've had an almost identical trading pattern this morning. It's diverged slightly now and is probably nothing of interest other than I find it fascinating that the computers are actually working together to trade the market. Is SkyNet getting closer to self-awareness?
ReplyDelete31064 contracts standing with a drop of 8464 yesterday.
ReplyDeleteThis could be a big black swan:
ReplyDeletehttp://exm.nr/gpdTZY
March 11th planned for Saudi Arabian ‘Day of Rage’ on Facebook. If these protests end like the last bunch... Will $200 a barrel oil be next?
Preliminary numbers
ReplyDeleteSeems to be a hell of a fight going on around 33.10 Did someone say volume is light?
ReplyDeleteRobert, how do you find the current OI number? You say it dropped from 39,000 to 31,000 today?
ReplyDeleteThanks!
SE
Someone asked whether every sell-off is due to Blythe or the manipulators. Remember, one of their goals is to make the dollar look good, and make precious metals and precious metal miners look bad.
ReplyDeleteSo, the surprising answer to this question is it depends on what time the sell-offs in gold and silver occur. If you were a manipulator trying to inflict the maximum damage on precious metals and precious metal miners, when would you want to smash the chart? I think first thing in the morning would do the most psychological damage to traders and investors. And as you can see from this gold intrady chart, the big smash downs happen between about 9:30 and 10:30 EST. What a coincidence! If there is an economic, financial, trading reason for huge selling at that point in the morning I'm open to hearing it.
http://www.seasonalcharts.com/intraday_metalle_gold.html
Robert, Where did you find these #'s. I get mine from the CME and they don't come out till after 1:30? The site would be great.
ReplyDeleteThanks
Trader Dan's "Little Silver Bull Humor"
ReplyDeletehttp://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/02/little-silver-bull-humor.html
"Brian O'Flanagan said...
ReplyDeletedo you really believe that every move in silver is determined by Blythe Masters, or is that all just said in good fun? Just curious."
Of course it isn't actually Blythe.
Of course some declines are natural market selling.
However, the majority of the major market downdrafts are clearly taking advantage of weak charting formations and bid/ask skews. This is obviously done using a predefined algorithm and is turned on/off based on the day.
Obviously drawing a line from the Fed. You have to be a complete fool to think otherwise.
@ FISD
ReplyDeleteThat does seem to be the case that these bid/asks are following each other, are you sure these specific stocks are being algorithmically traded? I was not aware of that, but I would not be surprised. I often forget that the stocks I am in normally trade in the canadian exchanges, where much more volume and probably algorithmic trading occurs. Do you have any articles in which you have discovered more about this?
-
I am indeed interested as you are... it is fun figuring out the system that holds us in suppression...
-
My parents keep telling me we are heading to a Star-Trek world...
cnjansel and 6aidbcwhatever
ReplyDeleteThese are preliminary numbers from the CME report.
http://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/Section62_Metals_Futures_Products_2011036.pdf
@dallascfp
ReplyDeleteThanks! LOL, and I needed a laugh this morning!
(Not that you are a fool Brian, but I'm tired of explaining to the community the type of funding required for this operation. It is clearly a draw on an infinite well, and the entities running the shorts in question are playing in such size there can be no doubt as to their intention.)
ReplyDeletebad housing number and this bullshit market goes up anyway.
ReplyDeleteWhether it's literally Blythe and her monkeys, or "Blythe" the algo (say, a bunch of short hedge funds shaking the PM tree) doesn't really matter. "Blythe" is a convenient shorthand for the obvious, fishing-line, manipulative drops you can see frequently on the PM/FX charts.
ReplyDeleteDoes seem to be pretty easy to make money by waiting for those fishing lines, tho. BTFD!
You can find the OI numbers here:
ReplyDeletehttp://bit.ly/fWq4MN
You need the pdf "PG62 Metals Futures Products"
You can find yesterdays "prior day" OI here:
http://bit.ly/e5DVOp
I am guessing the WB team is alive and well and waiting to pounce. If I were them, I would be waiting patiently until later in the week as the deadline draws near and then buy with both fists to surprise and trap JPM. There really is no reason for them to have been purchasing on any large scale up until now if their objective is to crush JPM and the COMEX. There's still plenty of time to position themselves properly to achieve maximum pain on their opposition. Just my thought on the topic.
ReplyDeleteJust took a look at the dollar index, looks like we are testing 77 and looking to move into the 76s? Not that we need any more help in the metals market, but this along with everything else should cause one big explosion when the buying does come... I feel it will catch people off guard, but it won't surprise anyone who really follows this stuff...
ReplyDeleteUS Dollar Index
I can't find anything that is bearish... besides maybe cottons and copper (along with a few other commodities) gap down lately....
Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. (USA) must be some good nuggets in the report they just posted.
ReplyDeleteVolume is great : 20.71 +3.11 (17.67%)
@blister - If you are shorting this market - Don't. You cannot win in this situation when there is an infinity QE going on.
ReplyDelete@deltafunctiontoronto
ReplyDeleteWell said, and we know you were not trying to put Brian down. :)
It occurs to me that the situation we have in the silver market is not unlike the middle east revolts. TPTB are being challenged by the rabble (us) because the internet now gives us the power to do so. The old saying "You can't fight the FED' may soon have to be reti!
may soon have to be RETIRED.
ReplyDeleteThe gyrations in the USD v. PM complex is really interesting.
ReplyDeleteUSD is about to drop through 77 again... dunno if the FRB can prevent it either. It looks to me like every time the FRB intervenes, more confidence is lost and there is ever increasing inability to reverse engines.
All this conjecture about Comex is getting off the mark.
The issue is the physical, not the posture of the Comex or the paper. I know alot of you guys are traders in the paper, and I do appreciate the postings about the miners and stocks.
On the other hand, you need to review Martin Armstrong's work on the debasement of the Roman currency and what it meant for Rome/Europe. He also had a really interesting paper he wrote which compared Weimar Germany and the USA. I think the comparisons are important to understand.
The stock market will continue to rise so long as QE continues. If they do not announce QE3, it is a lock that the markets will fall. The markets are under the control of the FRBNY and Fed anyway.
The only way to escape the sucking power of the debt caused by and printed by the FRB is the use of PM's.
Sprott et al have laid a pathway for us run from fiat.
However, my comments should not be miscontrued as a blind confidence in the gold and silver. In my opinion, the gold and silver positions are only a transit between financial systems and currencies.
Reviewing Armstrong's work made me realize that most people see money as a vehicle to move assets in a geographical sense.
However, if you are a saver, then you also need assistance in moving assets over time.
In this respect, I think it is obvious why the Rothschild's are bringing Winters into their fold. They needed someone who could front for them in the USA markets and knows the weakness in the US market in order to penetrate and control essential markets and services in the USA.
It is these precise behaviors that lead me to the conclusion that quiet ownership of small caches of gold and silver are appropriate for the US citizens.
The posting here in this blog of the fact that several hundred million Asian buyers are showing up tells me plenty.
If the US citizens keep watching American Idol, blowing money on cheap Chinese plastic ware at WalMart, and have to pay high costs at McD's for a 1/8lb burger snack; they will not be buying the PM's. That is well and good for the Rothschild's interests and the Chinese, but it will be the difference between a strong family in 20 years or not for US citizens.
The Rothschild's would rather use under handed tactics to suck the life out of undesirable families. These tactics appear to include economic genocide and financial lies.
Gold and Silver possession is a great equalizer, more so than possession of the USD.
When one looks at the history of the Weimar Republic and other hyperinflationary economies, I conclude that the citizens in those nations did not understand that they were living in an inflationary time. Instead, they continued in Normalcy Bias and continued to use the common paper currencies of the day. Meanwhile, they were buying "things" and "other paper" thinking they were getting "ahead".
They were not.
As the hyperinflation continues, the government lies breakdown. The people begin to riot as they struggle to gain essentials to living. The stores fail and the supply channels collapse.
Anyone else noticing the absence of Clorox in larger bottles, the missing medications, and the missing food supplies in our stores/restaurants?
This IS hyperinflation.
The Comex situation is the effect and not the cause.
Asked this question on last thread, and didn't get an answer.
ReplyDeleteHope someone can educate me.
Is it NO LONGER POSSIBLE to add March contracts?? That is to say is it IMPOSSIBLE now for the OI to go up?? It can ONLY decline??
Harvery said the March contract went "off the board" yesterday.
Can someone confirm this.
@Turd/all
ReplyDeleteI appreciate the responses and respect the argument regarding manipulation. The key is to be able to distinguish between normal volatility (silver vol is naturally very high) and abnormal intervention. I don't think intervention happens very often, but will watch with an open mind.
oldNavy wrote:
ReplyDelete...Open an account where you can store funds in a stronger currency. I like the Canadian dollar myself...
One thing I like about buying my mining stocks on the Toronto exchange (buy and holds, not short-term trades) is that the spare cash in my account is in Canadian dollars, and any liquidations I do go directly into Canadian dollars.
(Though I'm still not clear on the consequences of my broker going belly-up.)
traders what are you thinking?
ReplyDelete@Cris
ReplyDeleteYeah, I would like to know the answer to that also. Can someone enlighten us?
@John 97205
ReplyDeleteWho do you trade with, John?
@Brian:
ReplyDeleteYou may want to check Andrew Maguire out:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/new-whistleblower-emerges-ex-goldman-trader-exposes-jpmorgan-hsbc-latest-silver-price-manipu
-:-
From the just filed lawsuit by Eric Nalven, which references Andrew Maguire's series of whistleblowing emails: "In connection with its acquisition of Bear Stearns in March 2008, defendant JPMorgan acquired massive short positions in the silver futures market. Thereafter, JPMorgan, with HSBC, artificially depressed the price of silver dramatically downward. The conspiracy and scheme was enormously successful, netting the defendants substantial illegal profits. The conspiracy and scheme has been corroborate by a 40-year industry veteran and former employee of Goldman Sachs (the "Informant") who was told by representatives of the defendants about the conspiracy and scheme. The Informant has stated that he had been told first hand by traders at JPMorgan that JPMorgan manipulates the silver market. The JPMorgan traders would brag to the Informant about how much money they were making as a result of such manipulation. The informant reported the defendants' activities to the CFTC which has opened an investigation into the manipulation of the silver market."
-:-
Here, Brian. An oldie but a goodie:
ReplyDeletehttp://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/criminal-evil-empire.html
Iron hand on the tiller time. We're coming out of that morning slump; looking strong. It's hard to imagine the PMs not rising into the weekend! Silver going to see a crack-up boom today? I still think a run to $34+ is on the cards today.
ReplyDeleteIt makes for good theater!
@John 97205
ReplyDeleteOops, I just realized you said they went belly up.
I would like to trade on the TRX, though.
Do we have a nice FUBM forming here?
ReplyDeleteCris Oldnavy - Options went off the board yesterday. March futures contracts are still trading.
ReplyDelete@dallascfp no shorting here at all. Simply observing the obvious state of manipulation in equities.
ReplyDelete@Arend
ReplyDeleteVery interesting.
So far, the EE has kept a lid on things. IMO, if the WB crew is real, they need to make a big move at some point today. And surely BM is well aware of this.
ReplyDeleteI am not trusting this rise... low volume. Might the EE have a target number for the Comex close? I am expecting another attack... I am on the side waiting for a dip...
ReplyDelete@Quintas, Cris
ReplyDeleteSo WB and/or whoever can still be accumulating MAR contracts even as other OI are liquidating. Great drama!
she is killing the gold today :(
ReplyDeleteI have to day: I am getting a bit tired of this:
ReplyDelete"Unprecendented OI", "failure", "longs will stand for it":
Guys, this is all blahblahblah to me now. SImply nothing will happen tomorrow and then it will be the posts: "But May will." Blah.
Yes, I do believe that Silver is supressed and the story that it is seems to be in the internet for a few years now. And - without wanting to sound to negative - I do not see a big reason why it should not stay like that for another few years before we see an explosion.
Maybe there won't be a price-plosion at all. Maybe silver just slowly makes its way up to 100 or 200 $ per ounce over the next three years. Maybe not.
But I am a bit fed up with the hysterical "Good morning Blythe blah" just because silver dropped over night. I think it's a bit premature.
But then again: Maybe it's just my mood today. Sorry.
If I'm not mistaken, looks like Turd called the bottom for now here exactly 7 minutes prior to it happening.
ReplyDeleteTurd, you were off, though. You said 32.98; it was 32.9793. ;-)
quintus:
ReplyDeletethank you.
when is the last day to trade futures -- Monday 28th??
I am asking bc WB et al said they would buy majority of their contracts at "end of month". Trying to understand when is the latest we could see a theoretical "explosion" of buying, bc its starting to be put up or shut up time.
Frankly I am becoming MORE skeptical -- took some of my profits from previously deep out of the money SLV calls. Don't want to take all the profits and kick myself.
"A move down here, through 33, will be your first clue that this current saga is ending and that the EE will survive until May. A drop back through 32.25 would almost confirm it so watch these levels very closely."
ReplyDelete-- Turd or anyone, what is the logic behind this thought ? Thanks a lot in advance.
I though price can be manipulated by EE during Comex trading a lot, since they have lots of fake silver on account borrowed from naked short contracts, but as long as there are 20,000 outstanding long contracts to demand delivery at 1:30 pm on 02/28, Comex is busted with it's tiny 50-100M oz inventory. That is the only critical factor to final success. JPM has endless paper money via zero interest rate credit line with Fed, their son, and huge naked short contracts as many suspected, they just don't have enough silver to deliver, so demanding 100M oz silver delivery is the only way to beat them in Comex.
So far as of 02/23, 30,000 contracts OI in the cme report. How many of them are long contracts, how many of them are short contacts ? Anyone has any idea? I can guess more than 20,000 of them are longs by past experience. This info is critical since I believe most shorts are naked contracts, they can be created naked, they can be closed naked too because the the silver in a naked short contract is fake, so those short contacts very likely don't matter at the final day. Only the long contracts matter. JMO.
@Brian
ReplyDeleteAlthough I am rather skeptical of the alleged scale of manipulation myself.
An alternative point of view is that silver's characteristic sharp volatility could be the direct result of manipulation.
The sharp drops and spikes followed by long periods of relative calm suggests very large players choosing deliberately to bunch/pull orders in a coordinated fashion.
iFlash, finally. I was waiting for someone to say it for me.
ReplyDeleteA plug for Bill Downey:
ReplyDeleteTHE KEY TURN POINT MIGHT BE AT 11AM EST and 1PM EST when weekly PETROLEUM STATUS REPORTS come out.
Bill Downey's Gold Trends
I am a subscriber. This is from his intra-day updates, but I thought it was a very good piece of information to add to the conversation. Thank you Bill Downey.
This fellow has a figure showing the available silver for delivery at COMEX:
ReplyDeletehttp://bit.ly/g1Di5E
"There are less than 42,000,000 oz of silver available for delivery at the COMEX. As of Thursday, there are currently 53,000 contracts of March open interest. It would only take 8,400 contracts to take delivery of all registered silver. One entity can have a max of 1,500 front month contracts. Typically the open interest drops to rather low numbers as contracts are simply rolled forward. Apparently that is not happening this time time."
His website is:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.goldtrends.net/
Guys, get sane!
ReplyDelete20.000 contracts equals over 3 billion US dollars to be laid on the table. Do you really believe that this will happen? Why should it when it's so far more easy for the traders to take their fiat and buy a nice flat for it. No need to take the silver home for them unless they need it for production.
The only way I see to win the end game is when people actually NEED the physical for their business. And I am not even sure whether those buy it from the Comex ... in fact, I doubt it very much.
But: I have no insight in that. I just use brain. Maybe somebody with insight can tell me what I miss here ...
@jet
ReplyDelete1 long + 1 short = 1 OI
OI measures the number of open transactions.
The game in these final days before first day is one of who blinks first.
If the longs are strong, the shorts have to cover, or vice versa.
What is interesting now is that it seems that the strong hand seems to have shifted to the long side when in the past the shorts controlled the market.
iFlash: I'm just telling you what I think, which is the original purpose of this blog. If you disagree, fine. I'm not going to try to convince you of anything. I just simply present things as I see them.
ReplyDeleteManipulation is absolutely essential to maintain the global dollar fiat illusion. After one does a minimal amount of research, this becomes a very clear and obvious fact.
ReplyDelete33.3 is a Satanic or Masonic number isn't it?
ReplyDelete@Turd: I know. That's why I like your blog. And: I do not need to be convinced, I am in silver big time myself.
ReplyDeleteBut I want to know more about two things:
1. Is it REALLY a new thing to have big OI? And at what level would it normally be?
2. Do you really believe that there is chance people behind the OI will stand for delivery? Why now? What is different to other times?
@iFlash
ReplyDeleteAgreed.
It is extremely unlikely that a collective 3B or 1B will be plonked down for delivery.
However, as global inflation runs its course it seems that the global producers will inevitably turn to hard stores of value to balance trade.
This is the demand that will finally drive silver and gold to the moon relative to current prices.
A COMEX default is inconsequential on the larger scale.
However, such an event will undoubtedly accelerate price discovery.
"20.000 contracts equals over 3 billion US dollars to be laid on the table. Do you really believe that this will happen?"
ReplyDelete@iFlash: I suggest you read this:
http://bit.ly/hK0xyv
"NDUSTRIAL USER PANIC
The amount of silver used in each industrial application, while vital to the finished item, is a tiny percentage of the product's total cost. This means industrial users will not readily substitute other materials for silver in a price rise. If the price of silver jumps significantly, they will be more inclined to build inventories.
When the inevitable silver shortage hits, it will be only a matter of time before industrial users try to protect themselves from delays and price increases. They will attempt to build inventories of silver. You don't risk the shutdown of an assembly line for want of a single, low-cost component.
As industrial users try to immunize themselves from assembly line shutdowns, extraordinary demand will make the supply tighter.
This is how panics occur. The price of palladium rose to over $1,100 an ounce because industrial users panicked and built inventories. Silver is used in many more applications than palladium. That increases the chance that silver users will panic and try to build inventories. If a panic does develop, there is only one known cure - it must burn itself out at extremely high prices."
PS: The first question of course mean: Big OI at THIS VERY TIME (before rollover to next month)
ReplyDeleteiFlash
ReplyDeleteNone of us here knows FOR SURE that a short squeeze is in progress. The suspense is part of the fascination. But the evidence is there and we should know one way or the other in a few more days.
I must point out, once again, IF the WB group is for real they do not want the bullion, they want the cash settlement with a big premium.
@Arend: I know this (I have read tons and tons and tons about Silver, monetary system etc. - I think I know more about it now than an MBA ... ;) (but then again - that doesn't say anything) ...
ReplyDeleteBut my question is: Does the industry get the silver that they need for production from places like comex? Or where to they buy the actual physical silver?
Some people are just vastly uninformed and you can't educate them overnight. If you have no skin in the game chances are you will not educate yourself to know what you are doing. You will not do the research and due diligence either. You are not entitled to your skepticism until you have done your homework.
ReplyDeleteQussl3,
ReplyDeleteThx a lot for the education - I never got the opportunity to trade futures, maybe a good thing for me to still stay in the game :)
Now I see why the 30,000 OI number is so encouraging, with only 2.5 trading days to go.
iFlash, because people have so much industrial use for the trillions of dollars of gold that is sitting in vaults and safes the world around right?
ReplyDeleteHey campers, now that we're all so glad that silver bounced off of $33, don't wait too long to cash in those paper gains for food stocks.
ReplyDeleteCheck this exerpt from Nitro-Pak letter to customers, a favorite vendor of bulk food storage items:
"The nations emergency food manufacturers have all been overwhelmed with orders, so much so that Mountain House has stopped selling to 99% of their dealers except NITRO-PAK and a couple of others. We are currently allotted LARGE amounts of canned foods each week but demand still exceeds supply.
Please understand with over 34 Mountain House canned food items and with their ability to make 3-5 items per week, out-of-stock holes WILL occur. To expedite orders with pre-packaged food units, some substitutions WILL become necessary. Any such substitution will be of equal or greater value. Backorders in units may be required when substitutions are unavailable and will done at no extra cost to you. WE WILL PAY FOR ANY BACKORDER SHIPPING COSTS. I think that is only fair.
Most non-food orders are being processed in about 3-5 business days. Orders with MOUNTAIN HOUSE #10 canned foods, food reserve units or modules MAY TAKE UP TO 120 DAYS TO SHIP due to the EXTREMELY HIGH DEMAND."
Can't eat silver starts to hit home.. Turn some of it into food.
Buying more.
ReplyDeleteTwice this week we have had a spike down in spot silver after London closes. Notice how the patterns seem to repeat at almost the same time every day. This is not anything less than manipulation. http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
ReplyDelete@myth: I see you point and I take it. Well done. 1:0 for you.
ReplyDeleteWhat I wanted to say: As an investor you do not need the physical that much compared to somebody that needs it for producing his stuff.
I don't see big chances that a group of investors will put Blythe to a test. Getting the money is easier. Yes, it might not be worth anything. But as long as you can convert it in property (without forwarding 3 B) - that's easier, huh?
"Does the industry get the silver that they need for production from places like comex? Or where to they buy the actual physical silver? "
ReplyDelete@iFlash:
I think the point is that it is clear we have an increase in demand, because people are buying more and more coins and we see an increase in demand from China and India as well. That means the market is out of balance, we see physical demand is such that inventories are being sucked up by physical demand rather quickly.
The figure I posted earlier (which seems to originate here: http://bit.ly/grgBi7 ) appears to be but one example of decreasing physical inventories because of increasing demand.
So, I don't know where the industry buys their silver, but eventually it has to come from "the market" and that is getting tighter and tighter. And at some point, you are going to hit the bottom of the available inventories.
iFlash you as an investor need it more because it is real money and the only sure way to preserve your wealth. It's that simple.
ReplyDeleteoldNavy wrote:
ReplyDelete...Who do you trade with, John?
I knew I was setting myself up for exactly this question, the answer to which would reveal I'm a total newbie in trading ;-) (in my defense, I have about 40% of my net worth in physical in four locations: USA, London, Hong Kong, Zurich, and about 10% in miners, all at the Toronto exchange).
Somehow I managed to get to age 59 with too small a net worth to have done any trading (long story....), so nearly zero experience in trading up until this past September, at which time I came into a small inheritance. Within weeks I had 30% in physical silver and gold, then started looking into mining stocks.
What was your question again, oldNavy? -- I've been avoiding it. ;-)
I started by subscribing to Casey Research's Big Gold advisory service. I think eTrade (there's your answer!) was one of their broker suggestions, in order to buy directly in Toronto.
Big day for me, today, though (baby steps....); 90 minutes ago, I did my first short-term trade of sorts (using the shares, not options), following a recommendation of a paid advisory service; I bought some ABX, SVM, and SLW - using eTrade, but on NYSE, not Toronto. (I already have a larger chunk of SLW on Toronto exchange as a core position, up about 30% since I bought it. )
Incidentally, the recommendation for that short-term speculative trade I just initiated was to consider a 4% stop, and get out entirely if silver drops as low as 31.21.
Anyone joining me? Put your money where your mouth is!
ReplyDeleteHope this is the double bottom we have been waiting for.
ReplyDeleteThe OI longs consists of several types
ReplyDeleteSpeculators
Industrial users Hedge funds after the 20% cash settlement, and sovereigns. Speculators will be exiting. Industrials will stand. Seems that the alleged WB group profits most by keeping the game going and taking their cash buyout with each contract month. Its the sovereign nation buyers (through proxy banks?) that will want delivery of physical. How many OI are from the Chinese, Russians, Indians, etc? Thats the big question in my view.
Looks like we are back sown to 33... I am still looking for a bottom--perhaps 32.25? SGS called it at 32.50.
Any thoughts?
Hell of an FUTF (and FU me) under way
ReplyDeletebelow 33 and still falling
Ugh... this is seriously ugly today! Where is that FUBM??
ReplyDelete@iFlash: I see your point as well. My thought is that, with the dollar teetering, many investors are more and more attracted to commodities. Taking fiat in lieu of a physical commodity that will likely be worth significantly more next month or next year might not be as attractive as it once was.
ReplyDeleteJust for fun, imagine that Eric Sprott wanted to buy $1.5B worth of silver to add to his physical trust. Imagine that he went to Comex and bought 10,000 contracts and stood for delivery because he really wants that physical silver. There is a real demand for physical metal so why not interrupt the supply side of the equation if you're a bull? The only way to change the dynamic might be to call out the bluffers(those who sold hundreds of millions of ounces of silver that they don't have). There are a lot of very wealthy people in the world these days; many of whom could aid in pushing silver higher with just a couple hundred million dollars.
I'm just saying. :)
This is a pure Blythe takedown. Manipulation in its clearest from.
ReplyDeleteWould love to join you buying now Hansi but I stupidly put all my eggs in an overpriced basket earlier
ReplyDeleteclarification, last sentence of previous comment:
ReplyDelete..and get out entirely if silver drops as low as 31.21...
...assuming of course, any of the stocks are not moving higher on their own dynamics.
Is this little bounce off of 32.90 from short covering?
ReplyDeleteHansi, I added some SLV July $35 CALLS earlier. Currently sitting on my hands for now though.
ReplyDeleteI have loads of April $35 CALLS in SLV that I'm confident will be worth significantly more soon. I'm well profitable(on paper) on them at this point.
I still think we'll see a strong rebound and silver, and gold, will close the week higher than here.
I gave XAG as one miner pick yesterday or day before. It rocks 25% today.
ReplyDeleteSilver price...come to Yoda.
ReplyDeleteFor your padawan learners...remember what WB said...they would start shorting within certain parameters and unless you are holding physical, you will be on the wrong side of the trade.
For the iguy- attempting to part US citizens from their gold and silver should be looked upon with great caution, especially when the Rothschilds are running in on the market.
@Bobsmith
ReplyDeleteMay not be just manipulation.
Large OI going this late into first day almost guarantees volatility.
Many bodies one exit.
Either the shorts cover or the longs bail, depends on which side is the strong hand.
Brian
ReplyDeleteCheck out this chart - 1000 days averaged, from 2006 to 2010 - of the daily price of gold. Manipulated? Yarp.
word verification:
ReplyDeleterepulsi
The price of silver and gold will correct down in the next week.
ReplyDeleteIt always does.
Right on time as expected.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
Tell me this is not manipulation. This is the third day in a row that this has happened at almost the same time. I think this is going to happen everyday until the 28th. They are desperate. Notice the spike in volume on the Net Dania chart too.
http://netdania.com/Products/live-streaming-currency-exchange-rates/real-time-forex-charts/FinanceChart.aspx
Nice Timing.
ReplyDeleteHaving a “The top is in for gold so you better start selling you precious quick” Bankster Shill appear CNBC exactly, precisely when Gold and Silver get slammed at the CRIMEX.
Funny CON-incidence.
It’s almost like the shillsters at CNBC has mind-melded with Blythe.
Does anyone have a good link to historic open interest numbers? I too cannot find enough info to know how significant this is. Help much appreciated (and I have read/scanned all the posts since forever).
ReplyDeleteXty
@John 97205
ReplyDeleteHah! Don't be embarrassed, I asked the question because I am a freshman also and take every opportunity to benefit from the OPK (other people's knowledge) on this board.
I like the idea of trading on the TRX and having my funds in CAD, that's all, and was looking for a way to shortcut my research on how to set it up.
Preliminary numbers are at cme, xheck for yourself, final at 1:30
ReplyDeleteWell, if things go to form it should be up to sideways from here. We hope.
ReplyDeleteFinal numbers are in, 28275 contracts standing for loss of 11253
ReplyDeleteHansi
ReplyDeleteI am joining you. I like the 1 minute chart pattern that just formed with the low of 32.92 spot. I am a buyer here of AGQ
@StrongSideJedi
ReplyDelete"It always does,"... until it doesn't.
Watch the birdie, all is not what it seems. Don't get shaken out dudes... watch silver stocks for the clues.
@iFlash
ReplyDeleteYou are making an assumption based on your own value set and perception but the motivation of WB (if he/she exists) might be based on something entirely different. Just because you perceive they have no need to take delivery and would more likely roll the contracts forward is irrelevant since their objective is not the same objective you would have in a similar circumstance. Either WB was telling the truth or not. We'll soon see but it's too early to pass judgment on whether it's legit or not.
My gut tells me we are going to see a huge spike in the next day or so and a sharp increase in the March OI.
Maybe it's just wishful thinking on my part but I like a good fireworks show.
oldNavy wrote:
ReplyDelete@John 97205
Oops, I just realized you said they went belly up....
In the event, not clear based on my comment just prior to this one...
No, I wrote I'm still not clear what the consequences are if one's broker goes belly-up (in my case, if it matters, almost all my stocks were purchased directly on the Toronto exchange, and most of my cash held by them is in Canadian dollars).
@atlee:
ReplyDeleteYou are a dog!
@SilverIsKing: I'm with you! I have a sense we'll see higher prices by the end of the day tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteIf not, then I'll hang on to my April, July, and January 2012 $35 CALLS in SLV...I have a very hard time believing that we won't see $35++ in April.
anybody here trading crude? Just hit and bounced of the support trend line on the petroleum institute #. Spot to consider a position. Can use etf oil if not in futures. good spot with a stop.
ReplyDelete@ mythblasters
ReplyDeleteHow much does a call in silver cost and can you always cash out when you have a profit, i.e. it reaches 35 dollars before expiration?
Does anyone have a commodities trading account with RJOFutures, MFGlobal, or e-futures.com? Any feedback regarding any of these brokers would be appreciated.
ReplyDelete"I have a very hard time believing that we won't see $35++ in April."
ReplyDeleteI do too,, seems a lock to me.
@myth
ReplyDeleteYou're not nervous about what happens to SLV calls when JPM admits they don't have silver to cover their MAR contracts? I just got out of my SLV calls for that reason.
@bobsmit5: We're setting ourselves up for classic disappointment but I already have really nice gains in my SLV options, some of which I've locked in to recoup principal. Even if we drop down to $31 or $32 it's hard to imagine that we won't see a significant rebound just based on how small the silver market is and how high interest currently is in it.
ReplyDeleteThe dollar rolling over leads me to believe many will be seeking an outlet to store money that can't be printed. Look at the latest POMO auctions; the S/A ratio is getting bigger all the time as more and more liquidation of debt happens. The dollar is really setting up to roll over in my opinion and I think a lot of money will find its way into PMs.
:)
-------------
ReplyDeleteI have to day: I am getting a bit tired of this:
"Unprecendented OI", "failure", "longs will stand for it":
Guys, this is all blahblahblah to me now. SImply nothing will happen tomorrow and then it will be the posts: "But May will." Blah.
----------------
I believe you're right. For silver to skyrocket to hundreds of dollars overnight sounds like something for nothing to me.
This is why I keep telling you, folks. Clean out the damn coin shops! This is the only way to hurry up the demand to be felt all the way up to COMEX.
SE
Silver still got a 33 handle - lets hope it stays that way.
ReplyDeleteIs it possible to follow the Comex open interest in real time or do we just get the end-of-day figure ?
For those of you new to the PM market, when something seems like a lock, beware... crowded trades often get exploited by the BM and her minions... Keep plenty of excess margin. Don't get too greedy...
ReplyDeleteJFC
@BobSmith
ReplyDeleteThose APR SLV 35 calls are trading at about $.80 right now. You can sell them up to the APR 15 expiration date... if anyone is buying.
@oldNavy: I'm not really afraid of that happening anytime soon. It seems unlikely to me that SLV has nothing, or that SLV will collapse anytime soon. That being said, I wouldn't put too much faith in them, yet JPM have the backing of the US government and it seems more likely to me that a favor would be called in long before JPM declared the SLV vaults empty.
ReplyDeleteWorking the coin shops in my area today. One sells @ spot, 2% premium...they are my first target. Going to be an interesting lunch today.
ReplyDelete----------------
ReplyDelete"The nations emergency food manufacturers have all been overwhelmed with orders, so much so that Mountain House has stopped selling to 99% of their dealers except NITRO-PAK and a couple of others. We are currently allotted LARGE amounts of canned foods each week but demand still exceeds supply.
-----------------
Holy shiiiit!
I was right! That is why I see holes on the wall where we sell dehydrated food! We've had holes on the wall for MONTHS, and managers seem to don't know why it's happening or won't tell us that it's simply not available at any price.
I knew it!!
Thanks!!!
SE
Hello, all. I have been following the comex manipulation issue for years at JS Mineset and a variety of other sites. IMHO there will never be a "default" as that would result from someone being unable to deliver the product, be it silver, gold or hairball, as required. Since we are now resident in a banana republic with no rule of law applicable to THOSE WHO COUNT the requirements will simply be changed if a delivery failure appeared imminent. Now the "rules" require one thing; tomorrow who knows.
ReplyDeleteI also have little doubt that the feds are behind what goes on implicitly if not explicitly. You think there is no reason for the CFTC ignoring what has been going on for years despite having their noses rubbed in it by more than one whistle blower? I seriously doubt it and it is far more likely that they are complicit in what is going on and will just make enough noise to quiet the rabble for a while.
When you get to make the rules and change them as needed to CYA there will never be a rule violation. There are other ways to view this but the bottom line seems to me that the feds are wholly behind jpm and the other members of the EE (HELL! The feds are the leader of the gaggle) and unless or until the government actually collapses the manipulation will not and probably can not fail.
Or maybe not.
(Good site, Turd.)
Hansi
ReplyDeleteHey I know its "ruff" but i am encouraged by the action here. If we can keep this back and forth in this area thru 1 pm est, I think we make that run for 34 and beyond. Thoughts?
Please refresh for an update.
ReplyDelete@ mythblasters
ReplyDeleteI totally agree. I don't trade the options and futures. For one, I don't completely understand them enough to make money. I know you have to be very sure that the price is going to be where you expect it by a certain date in order to make money. Just how that is done step by step, I have no clue. But, if it is as easy as buying a call for 35 in march and waiting until that happens, then I can see a potential profit.
I am all in physical. The last time I bought was at $10.10 silver. I have done so well with buy and hold, I don't really need to do futures and options. I would not even do it unless I really knew what I was doing. The most important part of which is predicting with a certain accuracy what the price is probably going to be going forward.
Imagine what it will do to stocks, and I have some, if the Crimex went bust along with SLV. The stocks would soar because all that money would flow back into stocks where it belongs. However I know that there is massive manipulation there too with naked short selling. The mining stocks are incredibly undervalued and will not see their true potential until the criminals are taken down by the market, an event I believe is inevitable.
CME final numbers are out:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/Section62_Metals_Futures_Products_2011036.pdf
holding on: 28275
lost: 11253
That's still 141 million ounces holding on as of yesterday. That's A LOT!
ReplyDelete41.9 million ounces reported at COMEX.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.24hgold.com/english/interactive_chart.aspx?title=COMEX%20WAREHOUSES%20REGISTERED%20SILVER&etfcode=COMEX%20WAREHOUSES%20REGISTERED&etfcodecom=SILVER
Turd, I followed you here from ZH and have been a faithful reader from day 1. I find your analysis and assessments far more valuable than any of the other precious metals websites/blogs that I read. I just wanted to say thank you.
ReplyDeleteJust to be clear, I have almost all my money invested in PM:s. I am not bearish on silver or gold. Google comex default and spend some time reading all the "Comex default for sure this time" articles?
ReplyDeleteHere is a good example featuring John Embry:
http://meltdown2011.com/2008/10/22/warning-comex-may-default-on-december-gold/
If COMEX is unable to deliver physical gold and declares a “force majeure” all outstanding gold contracts will be invalidated. Both the paper gold and real gold price will blast off to Saturn.
All I am saying is, please, calm down a little. Let us get excited when the price of gold and silver actually blasts off to Saturn?
Again, I am not bashing silver.
@Liverdiefree
ReplyDeleteIt's not the "feds" behind it all, it's The "FED". Bankers are in charge of the country, the politicians are just their agents. It will require a huge and sustained effort, but no one ever said democracy was supposed to be easy.
@ 6a1dbcdc-3c89-11e0-b484-000bcdcb8a73
ReplyDeleteThat's exactly what people do with their profits. We are buying out the coin shops just as fast as we can. This has wings and there is no doubt in my mind that it's all going to come to a head. We are going to win. You just have to know that you know the fundamentals and they are as real as gravity. Its not a matter of faith but of knowing that you know what you know, and in that you have no doubt. I don't have the slightest!!
Sorry, meant to say "That can be fixed. It will require..."
ReplyDelete@reefman: Is that historically a lot of contracts since we're only 2 days from first notice? If I remember some of your previous posts, you seem to have a fair bit of knowledge on the Comex OI so a little more insight would be wonderful.
ReplyDeleteWe're really range-bound today. Hopefully we'll push higher on Globex.
hej: Are you asking ME to calm down or all your fellow readers?
ReplyDeleteWe shall not calm down. We are angry and tired of the criminals running the show. We will voice our objections until the crime stops !!
ReplyDeletenow would be a good time for Silver to blast north!
ReplyDeleteDC
ReplyDeleteWe hear you and will comply
@oldNavy
ReplyDeleteNo disagreement as to your main point but, while the banksters have bought the government (hell, the price was low so why not?), it is still the government through treasury that is directly behind what is going on. The banksters are pulling the strings, for sure, but the government is wielding the hammer. Or at least that's the way I see it.
John9705...
ReplyDeleteI researched the Canadian angle a few weeks ago, including brokerage and generally putting money in the bank.
At the end of the day, I said to myself: fiat is fiat, plus the currency risks.....is it worth the effort.
So, I bought more silver.
There's GDP on Friday so EE may take advantage of it to create more turmoil to cut the March OI further down. Stay tuned.
ReplyDeleteLooking at the 1 hour gold chart should be quite interesting to you guys... looks like a slanted upwards cup and handle (extremely bullish in my opinion), with a bullish engulfing forming in the 1 hour candle after hammertime.
ReplyDeleteI don't usually care for technical analysis, but this is a pretty picture... look here!
http://thehardrightedge.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/Picture-49.png
--
This means good things for silver too...
@Hej
ReplyDeleteYou have a point. It is easy to get all whipped up in the heat of the battle and besides, it is American nature these days to use hyperbole for every statement.
I don't know why Embry would predict a DEC gold default, but I guess he had a line of reasoning. There is no shortage of gold. But there IS a shortage of silver and it has been quietly ignored for years. When that is revealed, there will certainly be a huge reaction.
@iFlash, "But my question is: Does the industry get the silver that they need for production from places like comex? Or where to they buy the actual physical silver?"
ReplyDeleteOK I'm no expert but I'm just contemplating your question. The COMEX is a commodity EXCHANGE! So if you can't buy your metal here what's the point of having a commodity exchange. Now it is possible that an end user could form a private contract with a refiner, who is refining a miners production. But that would negate the value of the commodity exchange wouldn't it?
Couldn't get this up last night so I'm putting it up today...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/prepping-shoestring-how-prepare-when-times-are-already-tight/49971
Scroll to the bottom and you will see links to detailed discussions on various aspects of preparation, including suggested items that he's researched.
I have the SunOven he metioned...here is a link to the details with pics and how I've been using it!
http://openrangeramblings.wordpress.com/2010/05/30/its-sun-oven-season-solar-cooking-revs-up/
Please note that since I'm in the SW, I also use it during the winter if it's not too windy and if the sky is not too cloudy.
It's a fantastic oven!
looking really good here guys. IMHO. Lots of bullish little chart patterns forming on the 1 minute live spot chart
ReplyDelete@InsightAnalytical
ReplyDeleteI completely agree, I would much rather have silver maple leafs (or any other physical form of silver) than CAD. But if I have trading funds sitting in an account, I would rather have those be CAD than USD. I think the next year will prove that to be a wise choice.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThe way I look at it, we are up from last week when we were looking at around 31.00, so it's all good. I only buy physical, no trading, so these little movements up and down don't do much for me. I came somewhat late to this game, but I started buying physical at about 26.00, so it's been all up for me.
ReplyDeleteI have a question if anyone can answer. There are recommendations to buy non-hedged jr. miners. I've been looking at buying jr miners for a while, but what are you looking for in their financials or other investor information to know if they are hedged or not?
I have a basic idea of the concept but I wouldn't be able to spot it if doing my own DD.
constant selling in mining stocks today - worse than general market. Gold up $1.80 as I write. We may need to fasten seat belts on Futures soon...
ReplyDeleteI would have hoped the mining shares would have done better after recent gains in gold and silver. Seems they lag a lot.
ReplyDeletemythblasters,
ReplyDeleteI can't remember the date for Notice for December 2010. If I get that date I can pull up the CME reports for the days leading up to it.
watching the gold and silver prices is as exciting as this vid...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMDV3eISLPs&feature=related
... and we all which side will be victorious!
ceder: Its mainly due to the bullshit-algo-mgd$ trade of buythebullion-selltheminers.
ReplyDeleteOne day soon, these dumb things will be unwound and the miners will trend much much higher.
You can build your own CME report:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/build-a-report.html?report=dailybulletin
Select:
Asset Class - Metal
Product - Silver
Select your date range
You want to look for pdf's titled "PG62 Metals Futures Products..."
On the first page, you can scroll down to the bottom and it tells you the OI numbers all the way to the right.
HTH!
Turd
ReplyDeleteThanks for that piece of knowledge. I am learning so much so fast here, it's amazing!
I've started a very interesting new thread.
ReplyDeleteBull pennant on silver 4 Hour
ReplyDeleteSI
ceder: Its mainly due to the bullshit-algo-mgd$ trade of buythebullion-selltheminers.
ReplyDeleteOne day soon, these dumb things will be unwound and the miners will trend much much higher.
------------------------------------------------
Hi Turd... any chance of a short post to explain this a bit more for those of us in the "Trading for Dummies" growd?
I'm in the Sprott Mineral Fund (big)... it's been just great but has really been in tough since Jan 1... I believe in the miners but am thinking of moving more into bullion (Sprott Trusts).
Here's what TF said in his 10:30 update today:
ReplyDeleteAt any rate, IF the EE is successful in taking out 33 later, they would still have to take out 32.70 before I'd get nervous.
I know I am watching this very closely!