Wednesday, February 9, 2011

A Moment Of Caution?

An eerie feeling of deja vu has hit The Turd this afternoon.

Longtime Turdites will recall that the ugliness of the recent correction began afterhours on 1/3/11. Silver had just established a new high and gold was looking fine, too. However, Blythe saw an opportunity to paint a head-and-shoulders top on the gold chart so she set the selling in motion by ruthlessly hammering the metals on the afterhours Globex. I went back through the archives and found this chart:
By continuing the selling in the pre-market the next day, Blythe eventually got the ball rolling.
 Not sayin yet that this is happening again...but...look at today's Globex activity:
And now...take a deep breath...and look at a longer term chart:
I'd say a certain "moment-of-truth" has arrived. We either smash through 30.50 tomorrow or Friday (with or without "Benton" help) or Blythe is going to fiercely beat us back.
As a cautionary measure, I sold a few of my March silver calls a few minutes ago. I still think we've got the EE on the run and the fundos haven't changed...but...I'd feel like a real dork if, after noticing this, I failed to act and I let Blythe wipe me out with a beatdown toward 29 or 29.50.
So far, all is well as we hang in there at 30.10 and 1362 but be wary of an early am, pre-Comex smackdown and the selling it could generate.



  1. Thanks TF. Not worried about Blythe particularly. But she better be damned worried about 1.8 billion Chinese trying to use PM as a hedge.

    Don't get all weak knee-ed now.

  2. I feel ya Turdie, looks like tomorrow could be 50/50. My calls hit their stops earlier today. Waiting to see what tomorrow brings.

  3. Hey Guys,
    Just checking to make sure I can post from work. Just got a different computer and wasn't sure if they put some security crap on here or not.

    My comments are going to be a lot fewer for a while here anyway. Busy, busy, busy with work for the next couple of months. That real life job thing...

    Turd and all keep up the good work.

  4. wynter_benton claims that her group leaked the Chinese interest rate hike. How is that possible unless they have close ties to the Chinese government??? Something to think about.

  5. PM stocks much weaker than metal today. This is usually a bad omen and often predicts a smack down to follow shortly.

  6. I was thinking about that too, Stan. Benton mentions that Blythe "fell" for their leak...the only problem is that China DID raise their rate

    It's a little confusing and doesn't pass the smell test to me

  7. Appears the window is closing the flow of franken-finance benron burnokio bucks, future flowing to physical PM's!! Additional smaller window on cash tracking by big sis; homeland security! The all seeing eye, on who are bailing, from fiat currency dollars into real monetary stores of value, outside bankster fraudster paper ponzi, while it's rapidly burning to ashes!! Commodity shortages say you won't be gettin what you want in quantity or quality down the road! Knowing all governments print their paper currency until it's worthless! Some of us here saw the turbo charged printing of money to infinity long ago! Making our accumulations of genuine monetary stores of value, outside the paper ponzi go round, under very different circumstances! Circumstances changing swiftly for those, who also now see, the folly of paper money having an intrinsic value beyond zero; ludicrous!! Luckily I started 3 years ago, as many of you now perhaps wish you also did! Certainly, only a blind person can't see paper fiat money now flaming much brighter to the eventual ash pile!! I see the window to exchanging burnankenstein bucks to genuine monetary stores of value, crashing down now as an iron financial curtain!! If you don't believe me, just give it another 12 months as the truth becomes self evident! Even then, there will still be time to keep investing in blindfolds and standing 24/7 in line with social serviced minion crowds!!

  8. IMHO, I think it's a mistake to mix a macro-economy pro-bullion philosophy with chart watching. You're defining investing with trader tools. Sure this is fine for an individual looking to maximize their purchasing power in a given window, but as this blog grows I would caution not to get caught in the game of making daily calls.

    Realize that your personal buy/sell points according to your inner-trader requires one to be more nimble than the PM macro-view should allow. Basically, it's a slippery slope once you make short term calls. You have to continually back them up to defend your main thesis when we all know the long-term fundamentals are the same.

    Just be careful Turd as your following outgrows your trader instincts. Keep the message simple and keep up the good work!

  9. So, Chris, let me see if I understand...

    When I see something like today, you think I should just keep me mouth shut? What if I'm right and Blythe blasts silver for 0.75 tomorrow? I'm not advocating that everyone sell all their PMs and move to cash. I sold a few of my March calls because they expire in two weeks and a move back toward 29.50 right now would have a devastating effect on their price.

    Sorry, I made a promise three months ago that I'd always tell you what I think. I will continue to do just that.

  10. Benton is nothing. The real players in this game aren't wasting their time on a MB like that...not to mention the legalities of some of their threats and claims. It does make nice theater but big money doesn't play that public of a game unless its for obfuscation like putting out their operatives like Cramer and CNBS pundits with their smoke screens. Pay attention to what is objective and its right in front of you longer term.

  11. Did you guys see the Keiser report yesterday? he had a 15 min segment on Blythe Masters...

  12. If you are trading this market and Turd is have to take profit at critical levels.....he even telegraphed he might at these levels. I took mine yesterday and reloaded some miners that I had sold ....

  13. Thanks for the weather warning, guys. I have battened down for possible heavy seas tomorrow.

  14. Thanks for the heads up Turd, I imagine many of us here hold several different types of silver investments, and each of them require different perspectives and actions. When things get dicey, I pull my trades and watch from the sidelines, and any insight on your part as to potential warning signs is much appreciated.

  15. Turd,
    please keep your promise to us to tell it like you see it. You don't sit on the fence, and that's why you are always a breath of fresh air.

    If you are a hoarder and don't care about daily price wiggles and jiggles then just carry on with your everyday life and look out for the Turd comments that are relevant to you.

  16. Caution? Gold is monie, nothing else needs to be said. Buy the F'n Ds, and stack the coins.

    Also, in new "news", Assange was bluffing about having "bank docs" on Bac,,,or he is bluffing that he is bluffing. Either way, I am not surprised. Assange has never released any new info.

  17. Stan - I was also wondering about WB's connections with the Chinese. The choice of 8 Feb - the last day of the Chinese New Year holiday - as the start of the operation seemed not to be a coincidence. Maybe she has Chinese helpers? ... don't know if that makes much sense ... after all, if the Chinese want to accumulate silver, it would be better for them if it were cheap ...

    anyway, just a thought ...

  18. Chris, Turd, I for one appreciate the short-term calls. I'm not expecting 100% accuracy, or even 80%. But they help to build context to understand the bigger picture.

    I especially appreciate the "breakout imminent" calls from dd and "Turd's bottom" type calls. Sometimes those calls fall flat on their face, but that just tells me that the Monkeys are reading the same data and producing an opposite result. That's good information in a bigger picture sense.

  19. Turd, I thank you for all your efforts and know it's an effort to put yourself out there like you are. Much respect. Just know that as a fundamental PM stacker, I don't want to see a repeat of the "crash freak-out" like we had on here from $31 last month.

    I saw it coming and responded on here that I was surprised you were surprised. I think that was a result of you having to defend why silver didn't just keep going past $31 when we all know nothing goes straight up.

    PM holders aren't expecting a play-by-play call because like you said, who runs out and sells physical because of a 5-minute chart? Likewise, who will read a PM blog if it gets lost in the minutia of every tick? I have Yahoo boards for that. You know as well as I do, PM people are fundo types and talking too much TA is welcoming tick-by-tick debate.

    It's all good, I just want the best for your blog, but it is YOUR blog. Enough from me. Maybe it's I who needs to change what I should or shouldn't expect. Thanks for everything all the same ;)

  20. This comment has been removed by the author.

  21. Speaking of differing forms of Ag investments, does anyone here use or have an opinion on BullionVault? Short-term trades on physical are impractical; I'm thinking BV might be a way to day-trade the FUTF/FUBM swings.

  22. Turd,
    one potential counterpoint to your short-term cautiousness: for the past week and half we have not seen price gains during Asian trading hours. These were often followed by smack-down early in the day, US-time. Now that CNY holidays are all done, it MIGHT be time for the Asian buyers to start re-asserting themselves.

  23. I also had another thought ... don't think the idea has been advanced here yet, as far as I can tell.

    I don't want to blaspheme here, or pull on Superman's cape, but might it be that wynter_benton *is* Blythe? I mean, it might be a grand plot to soothe as many as possible into long complacency ... and then ... SMASH!

    (Wynter, if you're not Blythe, please don't take offence, and make silver go up tomorrow. thanks!)

    (A strange feeling just came over me as I wrote that last sentence ... the same feeling I had as a kid when I once prayed to God to find a new Erector Set under my bed the next morning ...)


  24. Long term investors in physical like to know what's going on in traderland so we know when to wait and when to BTFD. Big ups to you Turd! Keep callin 'em like you see 'em.

  25. @keszler - day trade PM's on the FOREX (besides owning physical).

    OANDA is my broker. The trading platform is simple, the spreads are minimal and there is no minimum account size. You can trade as little as 1 OZ of silver or gold.

    They also offer upto 50:1 leverage.

  26. I meant to say @keszler - I day trade PM's on the FOREX (besides owning physical).

  27. Don't stop posting about short term moves, it's also very interesting for many of us :D

  28. My PM Strategy is pretty simple:

    1) Buy PMs
    2) Buy some more
    3) repeat 1&2
    4) barter economy arrives, or ...

    The daily chart watching is just distracting entertainment. I really should be doing other stuff...

  29. Silver Cell - thanks, I'll look into that.

    I think I'll pass on the 50:1 leverage though - that scares the crap out of me.

  30. Chris: No problemo, man. As you know by now, I very rarely try to call short-term moves because it is almost always a fool's errand.
    Today's similarities to 1/3/11 are just too much to overlook, however, and I felt I had to mention it.
    Tonight's post will get us back to our regular programming.

    BTW...The Turd is now on Twitter!!!
    See widget in sidebar.

  31. <>

    Now all you need, Turd, is a facebook fan club!

  32. Turd wrote:

    "Sorry, I made a promise three months ago that I'd always tell you what I think. I will continue to do just that. "

    That's why we're here. That's why Turd Central is growing so fast.

    Stick to your guns, TF.

  33. Turd, look! I made you a pretty picture! (I fixed the title and the link, sorry for spamming)

  34. Don't miss out on the opportunity to hedge on inflation with Nickels. Just like the folks who failed to acquire silver dimes and quarters in the early 1960s, you will kick yourself if you fail to stock up on Nickels. Do so before they are debased and the older issue is quickly snatched out of circulation. The handwriting is on the wall, folks. Stop dawdling, and go to the bank and trade some of your paper FRNs for something tangible. The Nitty Gritty on Nickels
    Beyond accumulating silver, I've been accumulating copper pennies/nickels for over 3 years now!! Another winning trade for flimsy burnokio bucks down the road!!

  35. You are welcome keszler. I have been using OANDA on the FOREX for about a year.

    I do use the 50:1 leverage. I started the account with gambling money after i bought some serious PM ozs.

    I exit a looser at a predetermined % of account loss. Usually around 5-7% because silver is so volatile.

    This may sound like a lot but my average daily profit bookings are around 14% a day account growth.

    I also use Meta Trader running on top of my OANDA screen with some custom trading indicators: Slope line / Gann Hilo / ADX crosses to help me with the trend and when to exit.

    I also use the current HSR horizontal support and resistance and the Wycoff HSR I get from Kitco.

    I have starred at the silver chart for so long I seem to have got a 6th sense for it although nothing like Turd.

    These lessons cost me a LOT of money but now I seem to have the hang of it.

    The best indicator however is the TURD. I check the postings every few minutes night & day.

    If I was going to have another son I would name him Turd.

  36. Good stuff. Turd and Chris playing well. Just two different timelines.

    Like Chris I am just loading long term. I like Turd's daily calls and if the dip comes I buy it. Simple as that. I am tempted to hop back into options and if I do so...I'll be plagiarizing everyone's insight.

    Love the fact there are no trolls here. Knock. Very refreshing.

  37. Reiterating what others have said, I appreciate the effort you go to and nobody is expecting a continuous market advisory. However, cautions like the one you posted earlier are greatly appreciated. Those who are strictly PM stackers may not need them, but those of us trading options can make wise use of such cautions.


  38. Turd said..."As you know by now, I very rarely try to call short-term moves because it is almost always a fool's errand.
    Today's similarities to 1/3/11 are just too much to overlook, however, and I felt I had to mention it."

    Point well taken. As well as from the other posters who have a fever and the only cure is more Turd-bell!

    Always a fan,

  39. My last comment was for Turd (obviously)

  40. Turd ... maybe you wouldn't feel nervous about selling if you owned all your silver in physical, instead of playing in the digital stuff.

  41. Silver Cell - Your sharing about silver trading on the FOREX was very interesting. Thank you!

    I loved you final comment, too - still LOL!

  42. You are welcome oldNavy.

    A long time friend & trader turned me on to OANDA. He trades currencies and has a 6 figure account balance.

    He is one of the smartest men I know and he did a lot of research into FOREX brokers and picked OANDA.

    I am not saying it is easy day or non stressful trading PM's with leverage on FOREX however it is far cheaper than a futures contract. I have traded as little as 3 ozs at a time.

    I go to bed around midnight and also get up several times during the night ie 3AM ish 530AM ish (London AM Fix) to catch the PM big waves...

    This style fits my personality. I would trade NatGas if they offered it. I live for the volatility and get bored with anything less.

    Now about Turd's namesake. Just think Turd your great name could live on if my wife wasn't fixed and better yet you wouldnt have to support it with an 18 year installment

    While he was young I could just call him a "little shit". If he ever asked why the name I would say I named you after "The Shit" Turd Almighty.

  43. Does anyone else find it "interesting" that silver had a huge run while China was out of town and suddenly the day they get back "welcome home Blythe?"

  44. It's a mixed bag in silver backwardation on the comex... Some contracts are out, others are in.

  45. flaunt,
    it's probably not surprising if you believe that China is the big short and will suppress the silver price until it gets as much physical silver as it feels it needs. So, it's China vs. Benton and small time accumulators until March 1?

    I'm not sure who wins until March 1, but I'm pretty sure that over the long run China will not want its PM investments to be going down in value - it's real things, not USD, that they use as the measure of their wealth.

  46. Not to jinx it but spot FOREX silver and gold are trending up during Sidney trading

  47. Hi Silver Cell,

    You can’t imagine how happy I am after I read your posting. You just provided a solution to what I’ve been looking for. I’ve been trading PM while keeping my day job, so my attention span to the chart is quite limited. I tried silver mini futures few times at Interactive Brokers, and ended up with bit of loss without much practice on smaller scale. Your info on Oanda is truly godsend to me. Thanks again and thanks to Turd to make best PM blog in the world!!

  48. Do you realize that it's just THIRTEEN trading days until March 1st?!

  49. Thanks Turd,

    are you any relaiotn to Niall?

    your hunch tallied with mine so I pulled out on Thursday morning just before the fall.

    Thanks for creating another valuable blog around this important subject.

  50. Silver Cell

    You said you trade silver on oanda. I registered a demo account but can only find currency pairs on there.

    Where am I going wrong?