Friday, February 18, 2011

Watching and Waiting

First of all, I have to tell you a funny story.

Yesterday, we had almost 50,000 total pageviews. We had visitors from places like Singapore and Slovenia. Today is, perhaps, the most consequential trading day in the PMs in recent memory yet where has The Turd been this morning? Holed up in a dark office, pouring over charts? In a super-secret meeting with the Wynter Benton cabal? Scheming over a power breakfast with Tyler Durden and Santa? NO.
We are expecting overnight guests this evening so Mrs. Ferguson has had me cleaning and vacuuming for the past hour. I'd tried to explain that good folks from the four corners of the globe were all desperately awaiting to hear from The Great and Powerful Turd. She just shook her head and handed me the toilet brush.

So, here we go.
Silver has been stuck in a 0.30 range since the Comex close yesterday. It seems no one is willing to place any substantial bets on either side until and unless we see Blythe tip her hand. A/o 9:45 EST, I have a last of 31.87. This range will be broken UP or down very soon.
Here's your gold chart. It needs no further commentary:
Finally, lots of wailing and grinding of teeth yesterday over the "underperformance" of so many miners when the PMs had such a strong day. This was, without a doubt, related to equity option expiry today. IF today continues the PM rally and IF the HUI at least hangs in there above 540, Monday could be a very big day for the miners. Just sayin.

Keep checking back as I will be right here on top of things all day. Its a big day. Let's go get em! TF


10:30 EST UPDATE:
As anticipated by pretty much everyone, the CME has announced that they are raising margin rates at the close today.
http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/lookups/advisories/clearing/files/Chadv11-66.pdf
They are clearly freaked out by the OI numbers! As we discussed back on Wednesday,
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/02/wow.html
if the margin hike had no effect on price, you could begin to assume that the real deal is happening...a major run and short squeeze on the Comex.
Today is the day. Watch price very closely. We will soon know!

178 comments:

  1. You're a good hubby, TF. A toilet brush in one hand and a silver sword in the other.

    Our Hero. :]

    ReplyDelete
  2. Why do the big banks go short PMs when it would rather be easier to create a bubble and then burst it?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Path of least resistance now for the HUI is now up......nice retest of 540 would be nice but don't count on it. have fun

    ReplyDelete
  4. Did not want this to get post at end of the last thread, as I feel strongly about it:

    Silver looking strong again this morning.

    Another comment posted link to this article, which I found very encouraging:

    http://www.dailywealth.com/1634/This-Is-the-Critical-Number-to-Watch-for-Silver

    Just catching up on last night's thread.

    One thing struck me:

    StrongSideJedi said...
    @Jack - either contribute something useful or get off the board.
    February 17, 2011 11:22 PM

    I just have to say, admittedly late, that I don't think there is ANY place for this type of thing on this blog, and I really hope Turd says something explicitly about groundrules or makes it very clear behind the scenes.

    And I say this also admitting fully that I have been generally VERY impressed by StrongSide Jedi's comments and contributions, and in no way do I want to be adversarial to him personally.

    This blog has turned into something really special.

    We have to guard that. We have to try to be gentleman, and gentle ladies. We can/should disagree, passionately, but agreeably.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Turd you are the man, been following you since you started and I love the mix of humor and in depth commentary.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Turd, I love the idea, but the Miners won't be going anywhere on Monday- -markets are closed.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Cotton down 10% overnight....ouch! Anybody have a clue about what's going on with that?

    The only thing I can figure is pre-weekend profit taking....too bad I didn't get the memo.... :-(

    ReplyDelete
  8. @silvercell.. drop me an email at: rk4h@tempalias.com
    Since we both trade the same silver in the forex I'd like to discuss strategies with you offline. Thanks,

    ReplyDelete
  9. Ewc...yup...duhhh...dumb ole Turd typing too fast...

    ReplyDelete
  10. Did I really just see this??

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/if-cme-hikes-gold-and-silver-margins-50-and-nobody-cared-did-tree-fall-central-banking-pm-pr

    And a silver spike on the news? wtf

    ReplyDelete
  11. Maybe the sharks are starting to bite... The desperation is obvious at this point. Hiking margins 50%?

    ReplyDelete
  12. Its On!!! - CME raises margins and PMS go through the roof. Cant be many bullets in the chamber left for teh EE now...

    ReplyDelete
  13. Looks like the silver vigilantes were waiting till Turd had finished his toilet duties.

    ReplyDelete
  14. OT: I thought this would be fun for all you gold & silver bugs... a year ago Vancouver held the Winter Olympic Games, here's a fascinating video on the making of the medals at the Royal Canadian Mint (appox 20 ounces each):

    http://www.mint.ca/store/mint/learn/medals-4400016

    Here's a pic I took the morning Bode Miller was winning gold in the Men's Alpine Combined (later that afternoon the US men beat Canada in the hockey prelim round, an epic day ~ kind of like yesterday in the silver pits):

    http://postimage.org/image/1seky4lqc/

    ReplyDelete
  15. Looks like what several of us were speculating awhile back:

    Keep gold under wraps and let silver run. Blame the physical shortages.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Margins up and spot up....
    FUBM!

    Speculation on how the financial system will handle a Comex Silver default?

    Or arguments about how they can avoid default?

    ReplyDelete
  17. Jacob Rothschild backs Bill Winters (Wynter?), announcing his new venture yesterday afternoon.
    How fun this blog has been all these meny months w/o comment until today. Thanks for the memories.
    http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/02/17/former-jpmorgan-executive-winters-starts-advisory-firm/?src=dlbksb

    ReplyDelete
  18. @flaunt, I think that most everyone expected that. What a joke huh? If we get a dip today, I'd expect that it may be bought very strongly. The metals bulls seem pretty pissed off right now and ready to buy.

    ReplyDelete
  19. interesting to see how many contracts remain standing leading into next week. If the larger players have cash & ready to stand for delivery, this is all noise.

    ReplyDelete
  20. It seems they can contain gold somewhat, but silver is ours.. Ha Ha !!!

    ReplyDelete
  21. @Cris - +31.89. There are very few perspectives here that I have not learned from or at least enjoyed reading. Aside from record pageviews, each post on TFMR is now getting 200+ comments - mostly good-to-excellent ones.
    Remember humor goes a long way, and don't forget to tip the Turd / visit the sponsors.

    http://norwegianity.files.wordpress.com/2009/11/files_troll_2.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  22. I'm not sure what happened this morning to blow silver up again...can someone throw out a quick explanation of what was done to cause this?
    I'm always playing catch up on this stuff (as I learn more and more from everyone on here)...
    thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  23. Once again the Turd is right on, when he said it won't stay in that range for very long.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Did March OI really only fall by 1000 yesterday???

    ReplyDelete
  25. Turd - thats what I thought, also it must be what the CME thought, desparate stuff now!!

    ReplyDelete
  26. Well for a start, we will have 50$ by April... if exponentiation has anything to say with it...

    http://thehardrightedge.com/50-physical-silver-by-april-2011/

    By the way, the exponential function is formed through the physical demand as people become aware of a growing shortage, that is my assumption.

    ReplyDelete
  27. @Turd, astounding if true. Only 5 days left until first notice right? AMAZING!

    Looks like the margin hike signaled blood in the water to some deep pockets who smell easy money buying now and selling contracts at a good premium in a week!

    ReplyDelete
  28. 1000 is just unfknblvbl Turd.......oooooooboy...should be vethy interesting....but don't worry there will be a stick save....count on it

    ReplyDelete
  29. My Silver and Gold stocks spreadsheet now updates real time (smallcaps are 15 min delay):

    Silver Data Spreadsheet

    ReplyDelete
  30. Surely the CME knows the margin hikes will squeeze the shorts before they publish the requirement. These margin hikes go both ways.

    ReplyDelete
  31. pathoekstra

    jacob rothschild being involved with this makes me nervous, that's assuming that winters is Wynter.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Hmmmm...Al Jazeera reporting that the army is firing live rounds at the heads of protesters. This is not good; this turmoil is possibly just beginning...it wouldn't be surprising to see serious unrest turn into total chaos in the very near term throughout the Middle East.

    It's fairly astounding that gold is not up on this news. It seems that it is being suppressed. I just bought more March GLD calls...no way in hell the Middle East issues just fade.

    ReplyDelete
  33. sass - does it interface with google finance or what?

    ReplyDelete
  34. Gold/silver ratio dropped to 43:1 yesterday. We're almost at 42:1 already.

    Coin Info


    Word verification: aketch...as in silver is a gunna ketch gold?!

    ReplyDelete
  35. Turd mentioned the number of contracts represented by OI. Can we assume that each contract has a long and short on each side of the trade? If so, can you determine the amount of leverage on the long and short side of these contracts?

    ReplyDelete
  36. Turd, as you know, I've been loosely comparing the progression of March OI in February with similar front-month OI numbers in November leading up to December First Delivery Date.

    If the comparison holds, today is the day we should start to see lots of rolling. The massive margin increase leads me to believe the EE is "all in" on bringing that number down.

    I'd say the EE has until next Wednesday to get March OI down well below 30,000, or they're freaking HOSED!

    ReplyDelete
  37. Dan I think even 10K contracts could be a huge problem. That's 50M ounces! Eric Sprott had to wait 3 months to get 20M ounces. As he said, "obviously there wasn't 20M ounces just sitting around somewhere."

    ReplyDelete
  38. RE-POST ( this IS a special place )

    I'm no moderator, but I am an original poster. Jack and Jedi, I believe Turd will allow pretty much anything from the profound to the inane, it's all good.
    However, please I implore you to not take even mild potshots at each other or anyone. That's when things go south on blogs. Disagree? Sure, even violently as long as its on topic, and not about the messenger. no personal attacks.
    I mean look at all the above- what an incredible discussion, what a shame it would be to get distracted and derailed at this moment in PM history.
    None of us ( I don't think!! ) are behind the curtain, but Jedi, et al conjectures are fascinating.
    The more dots exposed and conjectured upon, we all gain.
    Not to mention insights into miners as a group or individual entities; general comraderie; inflation/deflation chat; commodities chat, etc. I feel like I'm in the best school I've ever attended.
    Let's park our egos at the door; we have the best blog
    on the web ( well, PM focused anyway ) going here

    ReplyDelete
  39. ScottJ88,
    Got your eye on Silvermex today? ..What do you think?

    ReplyDelete
  40. Just bought more calls as the rise began.

    I've got a song stuck in my head. Do you remember Todd Rundgren?
    I don't wanna work. I wanna to "stare at these charts" all day!

    I'm ready to buy more physical but a little hesitant. any thoughts? wait until the close at 1:30?

    ReplyDelete
  41. And a Turd cleaning the toilet? Now that is a visual.

    ReplyDelete
  42. Flaunt - my spreadsheet now interfaces with Google finance

    Silver Data Spreadsheet

    ReplyDelete
  43. CO_DAN- if your assumptions regarding the work today is accurate, the March OI will need to move down in the next few hours.

    Since the 3 day weekend exists, I'm beginning to wonder if they are thinking of today as quiet, meaning that the action is on Tuesday next week.

    Interestingly, this would give Asia and London to trade amongst themselves for two days without NY or the USA in the mix.

    ReplyDelete
  44. Silver going up after Margin Hike!!! this is awesome... Fcuk YA!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  45. Heading over to GVille Coins at 11:30am EST today to pick up a delivery from last week. Given what is going on today, do you recommend I buy more at whatever I can lock the rate in at then because silver will continue to rise big time, or should I wait because a BTFD opportunity might come next week?
    thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  46. Silver 32.15, starting to fly, taking gold up with it.

    Ahh, money making Friday ahead of a long weekend...

    ReplyDelete
  47. Saul...I may have been wrong to agree. $32.25 not far away now.

    ReplyDelete
  48. The EE are hiding under the table???

    ReplyDelete
  49. Look like the miners a waking up some this morning.

    ReplyDelete
  50. Gold is starting to break the bonds. No wonder...Bahrain army shooting people in the head! This might just be the beginning of an internal war amongst many many forces in the Middle East. I'd be surprised if gold doesn't climb $10-15 today...this is not a small news event. This type of event will galvanize the anger of civilian(and militant) protesters in other nations across the Middle East and could unleash some very serious chaos.

    It seems that the news out of the ME is throwing a wrench into the plans of anyone short PMs as it is increasingly becoming the go-to safe haven.

    ReplyDelete
  51. Holy shit, I step away to feed the kids and silver is over 32 bucks!?

    My word verification is 'verch', as in "Verch ya gunna do, Blythe?"

    ReplyDelete
  52. Totally, totally agree with the commenters who say no sniping or flames or personal attacks here - usually those attacks say more about the attacker than the attacked.

    What's happened to ZH seems a perfect example of complete de-regulation (where have we seen that before?)- the bad drives out the good.

    ReplyDelete
  53. So if the new margin rates are coming into effect after the close today, can we expect a (small) decline in Ag and Au on Tuesday?

    ReplyDelete
  54. ME Is very important. We also have ECB emergency lending going up (but we do not now why) and Portugal preparing the denials that it will not need to be bailed out in April, when it inevitably will

    ReplyDelete
  55. Ginger, i'll add my two cents about slx.

    share price moved quite a bit late in 2010. Previous owner, Genco, merged with silvermex. Bottom line is Genco had the properties in Mexico but couldn't take it to the next level. Wisely, they meshed with Hecla's boys. Check out the mgmt team/BOD's - not familiar with industry names but I suspect that's an A+ team on paper.

    They're currently in production but small time. They've been taking a step back, reinvesting to ensure greater production in addition to handling all the changes as a result of the merger. Recently announced a new General Manager, a veteran with the experience to get these properties in full out production.

    So they're in production, greater production anticipated. Scary good part is the amount of resources in their properties, which most/all located near each other. After further exploration in the upcoming years, proven reserves are all but assured.

    The stock price has languished in the '80's for a few months and investors are impatient as they believe given the mgmt team/resources, should be much higher. But they also acknowledge it jumped 3-4 X's in late 2010 so a status quo period was due.

    anyways, DD as always but if silver continues to rise and these guys can maximize production, growth potential is quite high. Currently have about 243M shares outstanding.

    ReplyDelete
  56. sass - do you know if google finance lists silver futures contracts?

    ReplyDelete
  57. Antrobus - this has nothing to do with "deregulation" in the sense of the state telling private individuals what they can and can't do. This is a private blog and Turd has the right to lay down the rules however he sees fit. Likewise we are free to take our business elsewhere if we don't like the rules. Same with ZH. Most of us like this better b/c ZH is not conducive to productive conversation.

    ReplyDelete
  58. With the push higher AFTER the margin requirements were raised, does this mean we're going to see an INCREASE in OPEN INTEREST?!

    The energy in silver is astounding and it almost feels like we're seeing the beginning of an explosion, as opposed to the explosion itself. It's hard to imagine that shorts were the ones who rushed into the market to buy back their positions after the margin hike. Although logic should be suspended for the time being, it is logical that only those interested in standing for delivery would got on a buying spree once margins were hiked right?

    ReplyDelete
  59. does anybody has a link to the new margin requ ?

    Google doesnt show up anything

    ReplyDelete
  60. All hell is breaking loose in Baharain... LOOK at these people... I know we're not supposed to get political but you have to look... and see what powermongers do to anyone who stands in their way. This can happen ANYWHERE.

    http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

    ReplyDelete
  61. @Marvin

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/if-cme-hikes-gold-and-silver-margins-50-and-nobody-cared-did-tree-fall-central-banking-pm-pr

    ReplyDelete
  62. I wonder how much advance notice the Morgue/Blythe had of the margin increase.

    ReplyDelete
  63. and they didnt expect such an reaction !

    now they have a big big prob..

    ReplyDelete
  64. All Along The Turdtower
    Blythe Masters was kept in view
    Wild traders rode the wind
    Bullion hoarders too

    ReplyDelete
  65. @CO_Dan: I've been doing the same thing, and you're spot on. Sure wish those CME bastards would allow reports older than 3 months. Also the preliminary reports (today) tend to change by close of business, so I'm trying not to get too excited (yet) about OI only dropping 1000 yesterday.

    @flaunt: 10k would be a problem, assuming whoever has been issuing those contracts hasn't also been stockpiling. I'm still not ready to rule this out. Sprott having issues getting his hands on silver doesn't mean JPM had the same issues. I'm sure JPM could get in line in front of Sprott if they wanted to.

    We live in interesting times..

    ReplyDelete
  66. An old tune...

    Nothing could be finer
    than to own a ton of miners
    in the morning

    nothing could be sweeter
    than Blythe sucking on my peter
    in the morning

    ReplyDelete
  67. Thanks Caramel!

    I really like Silvermex and am very optimistic about them.... in a nervous, crossing my fingers sort of way. I hold a pretty nice position with them since back sometime last year. Like you said..it has been crazy slow moving forward ever since the first of this year. It is frustrating, but I do realize they were due for some consolidation and a breathing period if you will.

    ScottJ mentioned holding a sizeable position in this company as well so I wanted to send out an alert to take a look this a.m. Scott.... as they are (finally!) on the move it seems.

    I value your input caramel. It's obvious you know the miners. Please keep posting your reviews/comments so that the rest of us can continue to learn.

    ReplyDelete
  68. SBGrandpa - thank you very much for your work, and for making it public. It's a great help!!

    ReplyDelete
  69. I liked what Dave Rosenberg said today in his article: Silver is making 30 year high and the longer that remains C10 story the better.

    ReplyDelete
  70. What will Asia do.

    Silver weakness has been during Asian hours lately.

    ReplyDelete
  71. Would today be the first day in modern times that silver moved up more than gold in a single day?!

    Gold is severely lagging and it's hard to understand why really. The news out of Bahrain is tragic and is a warning that more unrest is likely.

    ReplyDelete
  72. Gold/silver now 42:1. What a week!

    ReplyDelete
  73. Attn: AGQ holders

    In case you haven't been keeping track but would like to:

    Spot / AGQ

    30.25 = 150
    30.50 = 151.75
    31.00 = 156
    31.50 = 161.25
    32.00 = 167
    32.25 = 169
    32.50 = ~171

    Good luck

    ReplyDelete
  74. Suppression of beachballs underwater
    I believe TPTB have said screw it, let silver go; focus on gold and oil and pray.

    ReplyDelete
  75. It's funny, the greed factor is already kickin' in with me now.. I wish I bought twice as much physical when I re-entered the market again (for the first time in years) near the bottom (missed by 2 cents!) Oh well, it's fantastic to see the recent developments around silver.
    I guess I'll just wait for the next BIG dip!

    At some point we will probably experience a new big crash in the markets.. I wonder how commodities will react to this as this time the cause will be different from the one we had in 2008.

    Wow $32.50 !!!

    ReplyDelete
  76. Looks like the pm haters are the crackpots now. Keep going silver, this is too supercalifragilisticexpialidocious to stop!

    ReplyDelete
  77. I will like to see the analysis after today's close. I see the price above 32 making me think that 35 is not far away.

    ReplyDelete
  78. would like to hear more opinions about whether suppression is now focused on gold. if so i wouldn't mind switching some over...

    ReplyDelete
  79. Jeesh.. And gold doesn't seem to move at all.

    ReplyDelete
  80. Man, I wish I was going to be attending your dinner party tonight, Mr. Turd. I suspect we might just get real schnockered.

    ReplyDelete
  81. Slightly OT, but the CME and JPM remind me of the Captain in this scenario:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w226obiz0DM&hd=1

    ReplyDelete
  82. GPL over 5% also; even the more conservative SIL up high 2%

    ReplyDelete
  83. Turd,

    That toilet brush is very apropos, to be sure. You know my dad always told me, "No matter how hard you try, you can't polish a Turd", but you sure have been 'shining' especially bright this last month. Silver at $32.52 as I type. Cool

    ReplyDelete
  84. @Tyler,

    It's been awhile since we had the discussion, so I'm not sure where it is in the archives, but I think there's a consensus among a number of us that the only away TPTB can avoid a silver contagion that spikes interest rates and destroys fiat is by suppressing gold and forcing it to diverge from silver.

    Silver is DONE from a manipulation standpoint. The long un-wind is just beginning.

    ReplyDelete
  85. Iranian ships headed through the Suez Canal. Israel and the entire Middle East will be holding their breath...this is a massive news story and something that is quite terrifying honestly.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/breaking-egypt-approves-passage-iranian-warships-through-suez-canal

    ReplyDelete
  86. also if JPM is still long copper will they try to jack that price up to offset silver?

    i'm still holding some copper just in case

    ReplyDelete
  87. I go out for a few hours this morning, I come back and we bust 32.. what have you guys done to the market! lol..

    ReplyDelete
  88. This might help gold:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/breaking-egypt-approves-passage-iranian-warships-through-suez-canal

    ReplyDelete
  89. Pat and Turd: we may need to schedule the 1st Turd Town Virtual Drink Up after this action. Hoo boy is this fun or what? You know what they say about when a plan comes together...

    The past 2 days are bound for the history books.

    So yeah, let's get wasted :-0)

    ReplyDelete
  90. Is Blythe dead? Where the hell is the EE?

    ReplyDelete
  91. Looks like the iranians have put a fire under gold... - silver is just relentless. Eagarly awaiting ur next update Master Turd :)

    ReplyDelete
  92. @Pat\Turd

    I agree with you on the sniping and flaming of people, main reason I stopped reading comments at ZH.
    I have learned so much in a short time on this blog from all the posters and their different perspectives.
    I know some of you have read Agoldenhampsters post as provocative but I think he is trying to get all of us think on longer time lines. I dont know him, I actually found his blog on my first visit to TFMetals when I checked the list fo Blogs that the TURD follows himself. At first it was way too technical for me but the more I followed the more I learned. It is on his blog that I first heard of Lady Winter(WB) and where I read first of Bill winters being WB. I for one miss his comments and miss his blog (please open it back up)

    Like I said I dont know him, so take it for what it is worth

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  93. I think gold is trying to provoke me into buying more by staying cheap. I only have a little more uninvested money ... should I go for more miners? ... more silver? ... more gold? ... what to do, what to do ...

    ReplyDelete
  94. When the Turd speaks... It also Hits the fan!

    ReplyDelete
  95. Turd, I think you need a special Turdsuit to "solidify" your status as a superhero. By day, you are a normal American father, but by night... The Turd! Fighting evil bankers the world over!

    ReplyDelete
  96. Pat , Pick - the muse is upon you too.
    inspiring times , great to be here ,
    and overweight silver.

    ReplyDelete
  97. What's that smell??

    Smells a bit like $33..but I'm not sure.

    ReplyDelete
  98. Wow! I can't believe my eyes this morning! Silver is to the moon Alice. Gold SHOULD easily be over 1400.00. WTF?

    CD: thanks for the pic. Is that Karl Malden's nose in the fnord? alt.2600

    ReplyDelete
  99. Again with the backwardation across the entire silver futures strip.

    ReplyDelete
  100. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  101. I think it was the PIMCO CEO who noted this recently and its worth reinforcing.. The lack of "flight to safety" to the $ dollar when the middle east and the irainins are sending ships up the suez is most telling...

    ReplyDelete
  102. Shoosh! Riveting. Not much work getting done now, but at least money being made.

    ReplyDelete
  103. turdlings unite! we gotta clean this guy's house for him, so he can type till his fingers bleed!

    turd -- i might need you to help me with my marriage. i told my wife "dang it, turd has to clean his toilets!" and now she has started committal proceedings...


    fed delenda est

    ReplyDelete
  104. Can you imagine the yakkety-yak this weekend? Monday could be the most explosive day ever.

    ReplyDelete
  105. +$1.05 since open and it's not even noon yet!!

    ReplyDelete
  106. I think Dimon is giving Blythe a grudge fuck for losing control..

    ReplyDelete
  107. Today is awesome. Just to put this out there, when I was talking to my people about investing in PMs back in 2008, they were convinced that the "contrarian" trade was to stay out of gold and invest in a stock index, because "everybody wants gold now." Its funny how the MSM gets people to think that by following the herd, they are making a contrarian trade. Don, not much work getting done on this end either.

    ReplyDelete
  108. Any idea, when this rally will pause - for today?
    Not that I want it to. ;)

    ReplyDelete
  109. heh.. I just realized that Gainesville removed their coupon code for NIAUS.. bummer

    ReplyDelete
  110. Lately i have noticed that the PM strength
    has always gone hand in hand with dollar weakness.Is the tail now wagging the dog ?
    If so does it mean the dollar is that weak,and you better keep your cash in another currency?

    ReplyDelete
  111. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEqpvQqvcSo

    ReplyDelete
  112. Check this out, CNBS is showing the price of Ag at just 32.29 on the front page. Ok, they just moved it up. To 32.41! Not kidding

    Think their just a little behind, or is that they're worried that showing the real price would just spur the stampede?

    Rotten to the core.

    ReplyDelete
  113. Is it too late to get in? How high can it go before another pull-back? Should I wait?

    ReplyDelete
  114. Updated my backwardation spreadsheet. Almost complete backwardation.

    https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?hl=en&key=tanYB0mdLYuKxHPLjXywmOA&authkey=CMzN6IoJ&hl=en#gid=0

    ReplyDelete
  115. I just recently found this blog and told myself I was going to do significant research into its conclusions before even considering investing...significant research that apparently is costing a lot of money in missed opportunities!

    ReplyDelete
  116. Joe,
    "Is it too late to get in? How high can it go before another pull-back? Should I wait"

    This may help

    palladium 900
    platinum 1800
    gold 1400
    silver 32

    ReplyDelete
  117. Almost Free Silver: In case anyone missed my post yesterday, go to the bank and order $500 of Half Dollars. I picked out 10 40% Silver coins and 1 90%. My friend bought $250 and he got 8 40% coins! Not to bad and you cant lose Money!
    Just thought I would share!

    ReplyDelete
  118. Pick52-

    Thanks for the new AGQ chart, It's really helpful with "reality checking" my target prices.

    Unfortunately, I sold a batch of my AGQ this morning....I thought it would have a big correction...which it did, but it was in an upward direction..... :-o

    Well, there will be more opportunities, there always are.

    Kiwi (licking my wounds)

    ReplyDelete
  119. Looks like a mini-pullback in progress now.

    ReplyDelete
  120. Joe,
    Regarding the physical, NOT too late to get in. I'm sure there will be lots of volatility going forward..and yes..pullbacks. But, my personal belief is that you won't go wrong at these current prices either. As some here have stated....will you really care when silver is $100-$500/oz whether you paid $30 or $33?

    ReplyDelete
  121. If it makes you feel better Wobble, I have a huge stake in AGQ options. People have been scared of it imploding since it was in the mid-50's

    That being said, keep a keen eye on AGQ news reels...if you trade options you do not want to be caught in any 3:1 or 5:1 split of the shares

    ReplyDelete
  122. On a lighter note, there does appear to be a market for polished turds.

    http://www.tellmewhereonearth.com/Web%20Pages/Poop/Poop_Page_1.htm

    ReplyDelete
  123. Bat Masterson ( played expertly by Val Kilmer )
    " Why, Blythe Masters, you look like someone stepped on your grave"

    ReplyDelete
  124. No problem Kiwi,

    Small correction to that chart:

    32.50 = 172

    ReplyDelete
  125. ewc58 - ummm ... question: I've seen references to CNBS often in this blog, but when I googled it, I got "Center for Noninvasive Brain Stimulation (CNBS)", among other things ... that doesn't seem to be it ... are you referring to CNBC?
    thanks, und freundliche Grüße!

    ReplyDelete
  126. This day truly is monumental. I'm amazed watching it all unfold.

    ReplyDelete
  127. Thanks TF, best blog and commentary out there. Have been following you for a while now and wouldn't have made it through the trenches of January without this site

    ReplyDelete
  128. @snick it is a play on acronyms calling out the mainstream media on the bull shit they propigate.
    BS = bull shit
    it started with CBS = "see BS"
    and later morphed to
    NBC = NBS
    CNBC = CNBS
    and so on...

    ReplyDelete
  129. we need gold to push through 1390

    ReplyDelete
  130. @snick -- you got it, it is CNBC. But due to the extremely large volume of bullshit they broadcast, the ZH crowd (and others) have referred to them as CNBS.

    ReplyDelete
  131. Kiwi: I hear you brother, same here- sold 40% of my AGQ position yesterday when spot was 31.80. "Surely there will be a correction after that stampede". Uh, no.

    This brings up an interesting point. Virtually everyone here owns physical so that is not an issue, but many of us also trade paper to generate profits for physical- and personally, I am so used to trading vs. the EE, what the hell do I do when the EE leaves the building? Where are the pullback buy points when we are breaking new ground?

    Don't get me wrong, I am thrilled with the move, I just don't quite know how to trade it- all my regular signposts are gone...

    ReplyDelete
  132. OI for March is 53125 contracts. Only a decline of 2686 contracts!!

    ReplyDelete
  133. The sound of inevitability, Mr. Anderson...
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5m1A7zoIcc

    ReplyDelete
  134. hehehehehehe! Flock the CME! Silver margin rate hike? Echo's in empty silver bullion vaults globally!! Greedy liars swimming in the molten silver fiery pit the vermin created!! Now the liars are burning to ashes as naturally over leveraged paper in PM's is redeemed!! Those wanting wealth preservation, in every proven economic situation for millennium, have flooded into physical honest money gold/silver!! Burn you paper fiat ponzi rat bastards! Ashes! Ashes! Lying vampire squids all fall down!

    ReplyDelete
  135. Just called Gainesville and tried to buy Morgans only the extra fine was available...bot the limit they had 97 ...didnt ask about culls..very good fine and good all out

    ReplyDelete
  136. Gold is really annoying today... i bought some longs - but watching the money running away in Silver :(

    ReplyDelete
  137. Beautiful day...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=co6WMzDOh1o

    Sing it bro's...

    ReplyDelete
  138. @Pat ...

    that was Doc Holliday played by Val Kilmer. But I sure like the idea of Doc taking on Blythe.

    "You're not a daisy. You're not a daisy at all! Poor soul. You were just too high strung."

    ReplyDelete
  139. A little birdie told me- if you want in to TRE, do it immediatley

    ReplyDelete
  140. ginger

    FWIW I just swapped out some partial profits from SLW into a couple more lottery tickets.
    CLHRF and LVNVF.

    Now, that's enough names for me! I mean it!

    enjoy the day!

    ReplyDelete
  141. Update on my Morgan purchase......Gainesville is ALL OUT.....I didnt get mine..

    ReplyDelete
  142. Afrum- Every one of your posts has at least one line that make me laugh out loud! Thanks for the smile, and the day you end a sentance with something other than an exclamation point will be a sad day, indeed.

    P.S.- Pat, thanks so much for the info and the updates, I added to my TRE position this AM! Dividends in physical is the most completely utterly genius idea I have ever heard, I really hope this comes to pass.

    ReplyDelete
  143. kliguy38...

    I'm heading to their shop in a little while...could look at some for you and let you know how they look if you want. I have a delivery to pick up there, but am not sure if I should buy another 2 rolls of eagles or buffaloes while I'm there, or wait until next week. Does it seem that there will be any kind of significant drop next week or will silver just keep on rising?
    I'm not sure if it will get down close to 30 or less again, or should I even give a crap at this point.

    ReplyDelete
  144. Pining-

    I'm totally with you, I've finally gotten "into the groove" of trading the dips....the 10am dip, the 1:30 attack, etc. I was learning when to hold and when to buy

    Either things might be totally chaotic from now on, or maybe sliver acts like AAPL stock, the darn thing just goes up and up, until some specific bad news ....which would be cool (except I just sold, dammit). Good trading opportunities needs lots of volatility (or so it seems to me), and that could disappear.

    Kiwi (scratching head with claw)

    ReplyDelete
  145. Pat,

    I bought 30 Mar 8 strikes for .10 just for fun the other day on all the buzz around here

    Thanks for the heads up!

    I was anticipating the price being bid up by FOS (friends of Santa) to try and squeeze the impostor even harder. Hope it works out...

    ReplyDelete
  146. @Pining

    same here - i actually missed out on the rally yesterday because i couldn't find an entry point. maybe we can just buy and hold AGQ...at least for a little while

    ReplyDelete
  147. Ok boys and girls...what is the over/under on contracts standing for delivery at the end of Feb??

    Let's say 12,000. Over or under?

    ReplyDelete
  148. @fjords -- same boat, sold when sivler spot hit 31.5. Rebought AGQ this morning.

    The marginal good news is that AGQ is tied to the LBMA price, not the COMEX. The bad, of course, is the counterparty risk.

    This not only puts me to sleep, but leaves me less enlightented than when I started reading it. At least JPM is only an 'authorized participant'.

    http://www.proshares.com/media/documents/ProSharesCommodityCurrencyProspectus.pdf

    ReplyDelete
  149. One miner that I haven't seen anyone talk about is ECU Silver Mining/ecuxf. Does anyone else have a position, opinion? I think the shorts might just get torched again like last year when it went for the .60's to above $1. I know Bill Murphy's a heavy holder of the shares. I think once it breaks $1.40 its headed to 1.75 in a hurry.

    ReplyDelete
  150. Can anyone explain the why there's such a difference in volume from March, April, to May's contract - 64,652; 104; 17,658? Meanwhile gold has most of its contracts in April.

    ReplyDelete
  151. Pining, Tyler-

    Along with the cheerleading on this site, it is nice to get some moral support about feeling a little foolish for missing on the action....I guess there are a new set of rules about silver pricing.

    But somehow, just buying and holding AGQ doesn't feel right.

    ReplyDelete
  152. @Tyler- That is part of my strategy too- just hang on for the ride. Our problem then becomes, what if these crazy bastards actually break the comex- not saying it will happen, just what if? AGQ might be a deathtrap then (hence Harvey saying 'get out of all leveraged paper now'. Any ideas?

    @ Kiwi- Just a thought, but since miners and gold are lagging this move, perhaps there is some ground to be made up there for us...maybe we move into that area and go along for the ride? Anyone care to generate a list of good miners who have so far lagged behind on this 2-day move? I would throw out Pat's TRE as a good one now.

    ReplyDelete
  153. Come onnn..., please let $1390 hold.

    ReplyDelete
  154. Pat,
    Thanks for that tip.. I am all out of $ ..but just scrapped up a bit to add some TRE. (Not much..but ..eh.. we'll see)

    afrum,
    I 2nd Pining's comments.. I LOVE your posts! Your comments make me smile and I love your enthusiasm! !! :]

    Eric,
    LOL... I absolutely hear you. I'm out of $$$$$ ...I want more $$$$$$$ so I can buy more of these yummy shares in those yummy silver & gold companies. What's a girl to do? "/ ....Swap out some of that SLW and send some my way. You know you have too much anyway. :] ...Seriously, I took a look at your latest two picks and I like them both. I especially really like LVNVF. I have added both to my watchlist and hope to participate before they go too high. ......If you DO find yourself tempted to swap out some more of your other shares.. please look at Silvermex. ..or CZN. Got really high hopes for both!

    ReplyDelete
  155. Traders,

    Given all that we've discussed and all we've anticipated about March contracts for the past 6 weeks on this site, how are you feeling about holding through the long weekend?

    I took 30% off the table today when we hit 32.80 and have plenty of breathing room on my trade, but still...

    What is everyone thinking?

    ReplyDelete
  156. Turd (or anyone who knows) - I have a question, I know you had some March futures options (I think you rolled them yesterday). Assuming this all goes down and one wanted to participate in the COMEX squeeze, would you suggest, or do it yourself, putting up the money for a 5,000 oz delivery? I don't know enough about futures options, and it's never crossed my mind to be assigned a futures contract, but it seems like it might make sense in this case. I've read your post about taking delivery, but I'm unclear how that works if I just have an option. Do I make sure my account has enough cash in it, and just let the assignment take place, and then see what happens? I guess I will call my broker (IB) and see what they say.

    The bigger question is, is this a good idea? I'm holding physical already, but not 5k oz. I wouldn't mind having it, but I also don't want to be the victim of a COMEX default (just the beneficiary).

    Seems like it might be something others are considering, maybe a post about it would be useful? Thanks as always for your excellent words of wisdom. I pay others for a lot less useful advice, and I'm planning on a decent donation very shortly. My last one was a little small, but we're rockin' now!

    ReplyDelete
  157. 32.8 seems to be haave strong resistance... could this be related to JPM?

    ReplyDelete
  158. Brian,
    My gut says it will be under 12000 standing, but if the enthusiasm among the big and bigger fish is anywhere near the enthusiasm at the 'Blog of the Great Turd', it will be over.
    Just my 2 cents
    P.S. Verification word is 'weler' as in silver is doing very much weler today than yesterday?

    ReplyDelete
  159. @ pining, kiwi

    AGQ absolutely is a trap. we do know that comex shouldn't be defaulting at least until the end of the month. by hold i mean more like keep a hawk's eye on it all day or put in some stops.

    i just feel like an idiot for trying to trade it when i miss out on days like yesterday. i don't have enough physical to feel all that excited about it.

    at the same time surely some profits will be taken? turd would know better where to expect that

    ReplyDelete
  160. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  161. @Pining

    my thesis is that the PRC has secretly supported the surpression of PMs by the west, helping COMEX/LBMA to avoid default thus far -- but only in order to use those markets to pump the west dry of PMs.

    when they believe that they have as much as they can practically get (which happened last august) they step in and expose the COMEX/LBMA as frauds. COMEX/LBMA declare liquidation-only markets.

    media shills say "they are still the market-of-record for silver", all of us say "they are a joke, they have no metal".

    and then the PRC opens its own metals markets -- honest ones, metal-backed -- in hong kong. prices in that market rapidly diverge from COMEX/LBMA, while trade volume in COMEX/LBMA drops toward zero.

    ReplyDelete
  162. Turd,

    Been reading your blog for a while now. Has been a part of my regular business day for at least two months. I had to post for the first time because I have to tell you you are not alone. No matter how important you think you might be everyone has a boss. I own a multi million dollar business and I still answer to the missus too. In our household I am the head of security and the ministry of finance. But - she is the fixed operations manager hich means no matter how well (or poorly) I do when company is coming it's time to get out the toilet brush.

    Your brother in "arms".

    Swampfox.

    PS - keep up the great work and thanks for creating an open but civilized exchange for information.

    ReplyDelete
  163. @Mick

    Very interesting scenario, and quite believable...

    ReplyDelete
  164. Pick52...thanks, had been keeping track but over the last few days simply moving to fast.

    ReplyDelete
  165. BTW Turd has started a new discussion thread.

    ReplyDelete
  166. Turd,

    I am enjoying the blog a great deal. While we have every reason to be euphoric, I would advise a little caution. The EE will not go down without a fight. I suspect some type of rules of the game change is in the works. As Harvey said last week don't buy with leverage or the bansters will separate you from your metals.

    Monty

    ReplyDelete
  167. Settle down class,
    Be careful what you wish for... The banksters have plenty fiat otcd and rules changes in their arsenal. Ask the Hunts & Oracle. This needs to be an orderly transition.Remember when the price goes ballistic or should the crimex default or whatevers there will be chaos, people will starve, there could be a an unintended consequential GLOBAL cascade effect it will not be pretty. The overloaded US camel is in a hayfield in 40mph winds! If/when the crimex goes the CRISIS truly begins, this is going to and needs to happen, recognize. Be Prepared!

    ReplyDelete