Yesterday, we had almost 50,000 total pageviews. We had visitors from places like Singapore and Slovenia. Today is, perhaps, the most consequential trading day in the PMs in recent memory yet where has The Turd been this morning? Holed up in a dark office, pouring over charts? In a super-secret meeting with the Wynter Benton cabal? Scheming over a power breakfast with Tyler Durden and Santa? NO.
We are expecting overnight guests this evening so Mrs. Ferguson has had me cleaning and vacuuming for the past hour. I'd tried to explain that good folks from the four corners of the globe were all desperately awaiting to hear from The Great and Powerful Turd. She just shook her head and handed me the toilet brush.
So, here we go.
Silver has been stuck in a 0.30 range since the Comex close yesterday. It seems no one is willing to place any substantial bets on either side until and unless we see Blythe tip her hand. A/o 9:45 EST, I have a last of 31.87. This range will be broken UP or down very soon.
Keep checking back as I will be right here on top of things all day. Its a big day. Let's go get em! TF
10:30 EST UPDATE:
As anticipated by pretty much everyone, the CME has announced that they are raising margin rates at the close today.
http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/lookups/advisories/clearing/files/Chadv11-66.pdf
They are clearly freaked out by the OI numbers! As we discussed back on Wednesday,
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/02/wow.html
if the margin hike had no effect on price, you could begin to assume that the real deal is happening...a major run and short squeeze on the Comex.
Today is the day. Watch price very closely. We will soon know!
You're a good hubby, TF. A toilet brush in one hand and a silver sword in the other.
ReplyDeleteOur Hero. :]
Why do the big banks go short PMs when it would rather be easier to create a bubble and then burst it?
ReplyDeletePath of least resistance now for the HUI is now up......nice retest of 540 would be nice but don't count on it. have fun
ReplyDeleteDid not want this to get post at end of the last thread, as I feel strongly about it:
ReplyDeleteSilver looking strong again this morning.
Another comment posted link to this article, which I found very encouraging:
http://www.dailywealth.com/1634/This-Is-the-Critical-Number-to-Watch-for-Silver
Just catching up on last night's thread.
One thing struck me:
StrongSideJedi said...
@Jack - either contribute something useful or get off the board.
February 17, 2011 11:22 PM
I just have to say, admittedly late, that I don't think there is ANY place for this type of thing on this blog, and I really hope Turd says something explicitly about groundrules or makes it very clear behind the scenes.
And I say this also admitting fully that I have been generally VERY impressed by StrongSide Jedi's comments and contributions, and in no way do I want to be adversarial to him personally.
This blog has turned into something really special.
We have to guard that. We have to try to be gentleman, and gentle ladies. We can/should disagree, passionately, but agreeably.
Turd you are the man, been following you since you started and I love the mix of humor and in depth commentary.
ReplyDeleteTurd, I love the idea, but the Miners won't be going anywhere on Monday- -markets are closed.
ReplyDeleteCotton down 10% overnight....ouch! Anybody have a clue about what's going on with that?
ReplyDeleteThe only thing I can figure is pre-weekend profit taking....too bad I didn't get the memo.... :-(
@silvercell.. drop me an email at: rk4h@tempalias.com
ReplyDeleteSince we both trade the same silver in the forex I'd like to discuss strategies with you offline. Thanks,
Ewc...yup...duhhh...dumb ole Turd typing too fast...
ReplyDeleteDid I really just see this??
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/if-cme-hikes-gold-and-silver-margins-50-and-nobody-cared-did-tree-fall-central-banking-pm-pr
And a silver spike on the news? wtf
Maybe the sharks are starting to bite... The desperation is obvious at this point. Hiking margins 50%?
ReplyDelete32 broken !!!
ReplyDeleteFlaunt, it is a funny old world out there
ReplyDeleteIts On!!! - CME raises margins and PMS go through the roof. Cant be many bullets in the chamber left for teh EE now...
ReplyDeleteLooks like the silver vigilantes were waiting till Turd had finished his toilet duties.
ReplyDeleteOT: I thought this would be fun for all you gold & silver bugs... a year ago Vancouver held the Winter Olympic Games, here's a fascinating video on the making of the medals at the Royal Canadian Mint (appox 20 ounces each):
ReplyDeletehttp://www.mint.ca/store/mint/learn/medals-4400016
Here's a pic I took the morning Bode Miller was winning gold in the Men's Alpine Combined (later that afternoon the US men beat Canada in the hockey prelim round, an epic day ~ kind of like yesterday in the silver pits):
http://postimage.org/image/1seky4lqc/
THAR SHE BLOWS !!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteLooks like what several of us were speculating awhile back:
ReplyDeleteKeep gold under wraps and let silver run. Blame the physical shortages.
Margins up and spot up....
ReplyDeleteFUBM!
Speculation on how the financial system will handle a Comex Silver default?
Or arguments about how they can avoid default?
Now do we have to fill the gap??
ReplyDeleteJacob Rothschild backs Bill Winters (Wynter?), announcing his new venture yesterday afternoon.
ReplyDeleteHow fun this blog has been all these meny months w/o comment until today. Thanks for the memories.
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/02/17/former-jpmorgan-executive-winters-starts-advisory-firm/?src=dlbksb
@flaunt, I think that most everyone expected that. What a joke huh? If we get a dip today, I'd expect that it may be bought very strongly. The metals bulls seem pretty pissed off right now and ready to buy.
ReplyDeleteinteresting to see how many contracts remain standing leading into next week. If the larger players have cash & ready to stand for delivery, this is all noise.
ReplyDeleteIt seems they can contain gold somewhat, but silver is ours.. Ha Ha !!!
ReplyDelete@Cris - +31.89. There are very few perspectives here that I have not learned from or at least enjoyed reading. Aside from record pageviews, each post on TFMR is now getting 200+ comments - mostly good-to-excellent ones.
ReplyDeleteRemember humor goes a long way, and don't forget to tip the Turd / visit the sponsors.
http://norwegianity.files.wordpress.com/2009/11/files_troll_2.jpg
I'm not sure what happened this morning to blow silver up again...can someone throw out a quick explanation of what was done to cause this?
ReplyDeleteI'm always playing catch up on this stuff (as I learn more and more from everyone on here)...
thanks!
Once again the Turd is right on, when he said it won't stay in that range for very long.
ReplyDeleteDid March OI really only fall by 1000 yesterday???
ReplyDeleteTurd - thats what I thought, also it must be what the CME thought, desparate stuff now!!
ReplyDeleteWell for a start, we will have 50$ by April... if exponentiation has anything to say with it...
ReplyDeletehttp://thehardrightedge.com/50-physical-silver-by-april-2011/
By the way, the exponential function is formed through the physical demand as people become aware of a growing shortage, that is my assumption.
@Turd, astounding if true. Only 5 days left until first notice right? AMAZING!
ReplyDeleteLooks like the margin hike signaled blood in the water to some deep pockets who smell easy money buying now and selling contracts at a good premium in a week!
1000 is just unfknblvbl Turd.......oooooooboy...should be vethy interesting....but don't worry there will be a stick save....count on it
ReplyDeleteMy Silver and Gold stocks spreadsheet now updates real time (smallcaps are 15 min delay):
ReplyDeleteSilver Data Spreadsheet
Surely the CME knows the margin hikes will squeeze the shorts before they publish the requirement. These margin hikes go both ways.
ReplyDeletepathoekstra
ReplyDeletejacob rothschild being involved with this makes me nervous, that's assuming that winters is Wynter.
Hmmmm...Al Jazeera reporting that the army is firing live rounds at the heads of protesters. This is not good; this turmoil is possibly just beginning...it wouldn't be surprising to see serious unrest turn into total chaos in the very near term throughout the Middle East.
ReplyDeleteIt's fairly astounding that gold is not up on this news. It seems that it is being suppressed. I just bought more March GLD calls...no way in hell the Middle East issues just fade.
sass - does it interface with google finance or what?
ReplyDeleteGold/silver ratio dropped to 43:1 yesterday. We're almost at 42:1 already.
ReplyDeleteCoin Info
Word verification: aketch...as in silver is a gunna ketch gold?!
Turd mentioned the number of contracts represented by OI. Can we assume that each contract has a long and short on each side of the trade? If so, can you determine the amount of leverage on the long and short side of these contracts?
ReplyDeleteTurd, as you know, I've been loosely comparing the progression of March OI in February with similar front-month OI numbers in November leading up to December First Delivery Date.
ReplyDeleteIf the comparison holds, today is the day we should start to see lots of rolling. The massive margin increase leads me to believe the EE is "all in" on bringing that number down.
I'd say the EE has until next Wednesday to get March OI down well below 30,000, or they're freaking HOSED!
Dan I think even 10K contracts could be a huge problem. That's 50M ounces! Eric Sprott had to wait 3 months to get 20M ounces. As he said, "obviously there wasn't 20M ounces just sitting around somewhere."
ReplyDeleteRE-POST ( this IS a special place )
ReplyDeleteI'm no moderator, but I am an original poster. Jack and Jedi, I believe Turd will allow pretty much anything from the profound to the inane, it's all good.
However, please I implore you to not take even mild potshots at each other or anyone. That's when things go south on blogs. Disagree? Sure, even violently as long as its on topic, and not about the messenger. no personal attacks.
I mean look at all the above- what an incredible discussion, what a shame it would be to get distracted and derailed at this moment in PM history.
None of us ( I don't think!! ) are behind the curtain, but Jedi, et al conjectures are fascinating.
The more dots exposed and conjectured upon, we all gain.
Not to mention insights into miners as a group or individual entities; general comraderie; inflation/deflation chat; commodities chat, etc. I feel like I'm in the best school I've ever attended.
Let's park our egos at the door; we have the best blog
on the web ( well, PM focused anyway ) going here
ScottJ88,
ReplyDeleteGot your eye on Silvermex today? ..What do you think?
Just bought more calls as the rise began.
ReplyDeleteI've got a song stuck in my head. Do you remember Todd Rundgren?
I don't wanna work. I wanna to "stare at these charts" all day!
I'm ready to buy more physical but a little hesitant. any thoughts? wait until the close at 1:30?
And a Turd cleaning the toilet? Now that is a visual.
ReplyDeleteFlaunt - my spreadsheet now interfaces with Google finance
ReplyDeleteSilver Data Spreadsheet
CO_DAN- if your assumptions regarding the work today is accurate, the March OI will need to move down in the next few hours.
ReplyDeleteSince the 3 day weekend exists, I'm beginning to wonder if they are thinking of today as quiet, meaning that the action is on Tuesday next week.
Interestingly, this would give Asia and London to trade amongst themselves for two days without NY or the USA in the mix.
Silver going up after Margin Hike!!! this is awesome... Fcuk YA!!!!!
ReplyDeleteHeading over to GVille Coins at 11:30am EST today to pick up a delivery from last week. Given what is going on today, do you recommend I buy more at whatever I can lock the rate in at then because silver will continue to rise big time, or should I wait because a BTFD opportunity might come next week?
ReplyDeletethanks!
Silver 32.15, starting to fly, taking gold up with it.
ReplyDeleteAhh, money making Friday ahead of a long weekend...
Saul...I may have been wrong to agree. $32.25 not far away now.
ReplyDeleteThe EE are hiding under the table???
ReplyDeleteLook like the miners a waking up some this morning.
ReplyDeleteGold is starting to break the bonds. No wonder...Bahrain army shooting people in the head! This might just be the beginning of an internal war amongst many many forces in the Middle East. I'd be surprised if gold doesn't climb $10-15 today...this is not a small news event. This type of event will galvanize the anger of civilian(and militant) protesters in other nations across the Middle East and could unleash some very serious chaos.
ReplyDeleteIt seems that the news out of the ME is throwing a wrench into the plans of anyone short PMs as it is increasingly becoming the go-to safe haven.
Holy shit, I step away to feed the kids and silver is over 32 bucks!?
ReplyDeleteMy word verification is 'verch', as in "Verch ya gunna do, Blythe?"
Totally, totally agree with the commenters who say no sniping or flames or personal attacks here - usually those attacks say more about the attacker than the attacked.
ReplyDeleteWhat's happened to ZH seems a perfect example of complete de-regulation (where have we seen that before?)- the bad drives out the good.
So if the new margin rates are coming into effect after the close today, can we expect a (small) decline in Ag and Au on Tuesday?
ReplyDeleteME Is very important. We also have ECB emergency lending going up (but we do not now why) and Portugal preparing the denials that it will not need to be bailed out in April, when it inevitably will
ReplyDeleteGinger, i'll add my two cents about slx.
ReplyDeleteshare price moved quite a bit late in 2010. Previous owner, Genco, merged with silvermex. Bottom line is Genco had the properties in Mexico but couldn't take it to the next level. Wisely, they meshed with Hecla's boys. Check out the mgmt team/BOD's - not familiar with industry names but I suspect that's an A+ team on paper.
They're currently in production but small time. They've been taking a step back, reinvesting to ensure greater production in addition to handling all the changes as a result of the merger. Recently announced a new General Manager, a veteran with the experience to get these properties in full out production.
So they're in production, greater production anticipated. Scary good part is the amount of resources in their properties, which most/all located near each other. After further exploration in the upcoming years, proven reserves are all but assured.
The stock price has languished in the '80's for a few months and investors are impatient as they believe given the mgmt team/resources, should be much higher. But they also acknowledge it jumped 3-4 X's in late 2010 so a status quo period was due.
anyways, DD as always but if silver continues to rise and these guys can maximize production, growth potential is quite high. Currently have about 243M shares outstanding.
sass - do you know if google finance lists silver futures contracts?
ReplyDeleteAntrobus - this has nothing to do with "deregulation" in the sense of the state telling private individuals what they can and can't do. This is a private blog and Turd has the right to lay down the rules however he sees fit. Likewise we are free to take our business elsewhere if we don't like the rules. Same with ZH. Most of us like this better b/c ZH is not conducive to productive conversation.
ReplyDeleteWith the push higher AFTER the margin requirements were raised, does this mean we're going to see an INCREASE in OPEN INTEREST?!
ReplyDeleteThe energy in silver is astounding and it almost feels like we're seeing the beginning of an explosion, as opposed to the explosion itself. It's hard to imagine that shorts were the ones who rushed into the market to buy back their positions after the margin hike. Although logic should be suspended for the time being, it is logical that only those interested in standing for delivery would got on a buying spree once margins were hiked right?
gold lagging hard
ReplyDeletedoes anybody has a link to the new margin requ ?
ReplyDeleteGoogle doesnt show up anything
All hell is breaking loose in Baharain... LOOK at these people... I know we're not supposed to get political but you have to look... and see what powermongers do to anyone who stands in their way. This can happen ANYWHERE.
ReplyDeletehttp://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/
@Marvin
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/if-cme-hikes-gold-and-silver-margins-50-and-nobody-cared-did-tree-fall-central-banking-pm-pr
I wonder how much advance notice the Morgue/Blythe had of the margin increase.
ReplyDeleteand they didnt expect such an reaction !
ReplyDeletenow they have a big big prob..
All Along The Turdtower
ReplyDeleteBlythe Masters was kept in view
Wild traders rode the wind
Bullion hoarders too
@CO_Dan: I've been doing the same thing, and you're spot on. Sure wish those CME bastards would allow reports older than 3 months. Also the preliminary reports (today) tend to change by close of business, so I'm trying not to get too excited (yet) about OI only dropping 1000 yesterday.
ReplyDelete@flaunt: 10k would be a problem, assuming whoever has been issuing those contracts hasn't also been stockpiling. I'm still not ready to rule this out. Sprott having issues getting his hands on silver doesn't mean JPM had the same issues. I'm sure JPM could get in line in front of Sprott if they wanted to.
We live in interesting times..
An old tune...
ReplyDeleteNothing could be finer
than to own a ton of miners
in the morning
nothing could be sweeter
than Blythe sucking on my peter
in the morning
Thanks Caramel!
ReplyDeleteI really like Silvermex and am very optimistic about them.... in a nervous, crossing my fingers sort of way. I hold a pretty nice position with them since back sometime last year. Like you said..it has been crazy slow moving forward ever since the first of this year. It is frustrating, but I do realize they were due for some consolidation and a breathing period if you will.
ScottJ mentioned holding a sizeable position in this company as well so I wanted to send out an alert to take a look this a.m. Scott.... as they are (finally!) on the move it seems.
I value your input caramel. It's obvious you know the miners. Please keep posting your reviews/comments so that the rest of us can continue to learn.
SBGrandpa - thank you very much for your work, and for making it public. It's a great help!!
ReplyDeleteI liked what Dave Rosenberg said today in his article: Silver is making 30 year high and the longer that remains C10 story the better.
ReplyDeleteWhat will Asia do.
ReplyDeleteSilver weakness has been during Asian hours lately.
Would today be the first day in modern times that silver moved up more than gold in a single day?!
ReplyDeleteGold is severely lagging and it's hard to understand why really. The news out of Bahrain is tragic and is a warning that more unrest is likely.
Gold/silver now 42:1. What a week!
ReplyDeleteAttn: AGQ holders
ReplyDeleteIn case you haven't been keeping track but would like to:
Spot / AGQ
30.25 = 150
30.50 = 151.75
31.00 = 156
31.50 = 161.25
32.00 = 167
32.25 = 169
32.50 = ~171
Good luck
Suppression of beachballs underwater
ReplyDeleteI believe TPTB have said screw it, let silver go; focus on gold and oil and pray.
It's funny, the greed factor is already kickin' in with me now.. I wish I bought twice as much physical when I re-entered the market again (for the first time in years) near the bottom (missed by 2 cents!) Oh well, it's fantastic to see the recent developments around silver.
ReplyDeleteI guess I'll just wait for the next BIG dip!
At some point we will probably experience a new big crash in the markets.. I wonder how commodities will react to this as this time the cause will be different from the one we had in 2008.
Wow $32.50 !!!
Looks like the pm haters are the crackpots now. Keep going silver, this is too supercalifragilisticexpialidocious to stop!
ReplyDeleteI will like to see the analysis after today's close. I see the price above 32 making me think that 35 is not far away.
ReplyDelete32+
ReplyDeletewould like to hear more opinions about whether suppression is now focused on gold. if so i wouldn't mind switching some over...
ReplyDeleteJeesh.. And gold doesn't seem to move at all.
ReplyDeleteSLW up 5.82%
ReplyDeleteMan, I wish I was going to be attending your dinner party tonight, Mr. Turd. I suspect we might just get real schnockered.
ReplyDeleteSlightly OT, but the CME and JPM remind me of the Captain in this scenario:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w226obiz0DM&hd=1
GPL over 5% also; even the more conservative SIL up high 2%
ReplyDeleteTurd,
ReplyDeleteThat toilet brush is very apropos, to be sure. You know my dad always told me, "No matter how hard you try, you can't polish a Turd", but you sure have been 'shining' especially bright this last month. Silver at $32.52 as I type. Cool
@Tyler,
ReplyDeleteIt's been awhile since we had the discussion, so I'm not sure where it is in the archives, but I think there's a consensus among a number of us that the only away TPTB can avoid a silver contagion that spikes interest rates and destroys fiat is by suppressing gold and forcing it to diverge from silver.
Silver is DONE from a manipulation standpoint. The long un-wind is just beginning.
Iranian ships headed through the Suez Canal. Israel and the entire Middle East will be holding their breath...this is a massive news story and something that is quite terrifying honestly.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/breaking-egypt-approves-passage-iranian-warships-through-suez-canal
also if JPM is still long copper will they try to jack that price up to offset silver?
ReplyDeletei'm still holding some copper just in case
This might help gold:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/breaking-egypt-approves-passage-iranian-warships-through-suez-canal
Pat and Turd: we may need to schedule the 1st Turd Town Virtual Drink Up after this action. Hoo boy is this fun or what? You know what they say about when a plan comes together...
ReplyDeleteThe past 2 days are bound for the history books.
So yeah, let's get wasted :-0)
Is Blythe dead? Where the hell is the EE?
ReplyDeleteLooks like the iranians have put a fire under gold... - silver is just relentless. Eagarly awaiting ur next update Master Turd :)
ReplyDelete@Pat\Turd
ReplyDeleteI agree with you on the sniping and flaming of people, main reason I stopped reading comments at ZH.
I have learned so much in a short time on this blog from all the posters and their different perspectives.
I know some of you have read Agoldenhampsters post as provocative but I think he is trying to get all of us think on longer time lines. I dont know him, I actually found his blog on my first visit to TFMetals when I checked the list fo Blogs that the TURD follows himself. At first it was way too technical for me but the more I followed the more I learned. It is on his blog that I first heard of Lady Winter(WB) and where I read first of Bill winters being WB. I for one miss his comments and miss his blog (please open it back up)
Like I said I dont know him, so take it for what it is worth
Thanks
I think gold is trying to provoke me into buying more by staying cheap. I only have a little more uninvested money ... should I go for more miners? ... more silver? ... more gold? ... what to do, what to do ...
ReplyDeleteWhen the Turd speaks... It also Hits the fan!
ReplyDeleteTurd, I think you need a special Turdsuit to "solidify" your status as a superhero. By day, you are a normal American father, but by night... The Turd! Fighting evil bankers the world over!
ReplyDeletePat , Pick - the muse is upon you too.
ReplyDeleteinspiring times , great to be here ,
and overweight silver.
What's that smell??
ReplyDeleteSmells a bit like $33..but I'm not sure.
there's 1390!
ReplyDeleteWow! I can't believe my eyes this morning! Silver is to the moon Alice. Gold SHOULD easily be over 1400.00. WTF?
ReplyDeleteCD: thanks for the pic. Is that Karl Malden's nose in the fnord? alt.2600
Again with the backwardation across the entire silver futures strip.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI think it was the PIMCO CEO who noted this recently and its worth reinforcing.. The lack of "flight to safety" to the $ dollar when the middle east and the irainins are sending ships up the suez is most telling...
ReplyDeleteShoosh! Riveting. Not much work getting done now, but at least money being made.
ReplyDeleteturdlings unite! we gotta clean this guy's house for him, so he can type till his fingers bleed!
ReplyDeleteturd -- i might need you to help me with my marriage. i told my wife "dang it, turd has to clean his toilets!" and now she has started committal proceedings...
fed delenda est
Can you imagine the yakkety-yak this weekend? Monday could be the most explosive day ever.
ReplyDelete+$1.05 since open and it's not even noon yet!!
ReplyDeleteToday is awesome. Just to put this out there, when I was talking to my people about investing in PMs back in 2008, they were convinced that the "contrarian" trade was to stay out of gold and invest in a stock index, because "everybody wants gold now." Its funny how the MSM gets people to think that by following the herd, they are making a contrarian trade. Don, not much work getting done on this end either.
ReplyDeleteLooks parabolic to me.
ReplyDeleteAny idea, when this rally will pause - for today?
ReplyDeleteNot that I want it to. ;)
Is Blythe trying a raid for Old Time's Sake?
ReplyDeleteLately i have noticed that the PM strength
ReplyDeletehas always gone hand in hand with dollar weakness.Is the tail now wagging the dog ?
If so does it mean the dollar is that weak,and you better keep your cash in another currency?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEqpvQqvcSo
ReplyDeleteCheck this out, CNBS is showing the price of Ag at just 32.29 on the front page. Ok, they just moved it up. To 32.41! Not kidding
ReplyDeleteThink their just a little behind, or is that they're worried that showing the real price would just spur the stampede?
Rotten to the core.
Is it too late to get in? How high can it go before another pull-back? Should I wait?
ReplyDeleteUpdated my backwardation spreadsheet. Almost complete backwardation.
ReplyDeletehttps://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?hl=en&key=tanYB0mdLYuKxHPLjXywmOA&authkey=CMzN6IoJ&hl=en#gid=0
I just recently found this blog and told myself I was going to do significant research into its conclusions before even considering investing...significant research that apparently is costing a lot of money in missed opportunities!
ReplyDeleteJoe,
ReplyDelete"Is it too late to get in? How high can it go before another pull-back? Should I wait"
This may help
palladium 900
platinum 1800
gold 1400
silver 32
Almost Free Silver: In case anyone missed my post yesterday, go to the bank and order $500 of Half Dollars. I picked out 10 40% Silver coins and 1 90%. My friend bought $250 and he got 8 40% coins! Not to bad and you cant lose Money!
ReplyDeleteJust thought I would share!
Pick52-
ReplyDeleteThanks for the new AGQ chart, It's really helpful with "reality checking" my target prices.
Unfortunately, I sold a batch of my AGQ this morning....I thought it would have a big correction...which it did, but it was in an upward direction..... :-o
Well, there will be more opportunities, there always are.
Kiwi (licking my wounds)
Looks like a mini-pullback in progress now.
ReplyDeleteJoe,
ReplyDeleteRegarding the physical, NOT too late to get in. I'm sure there will be lots of volatility going forward..and yes..pullbacks. But, my personal belief is that you won't go wrong at these current prices either. As some here have stated....will you really care when silver is $100-$500/oz whether you paid $30 or $33?
If it makes you feel better Wobble, I have a huge stake in AGQ options. People have been scared of it imploding since it was in the mid-50's
ReplyDeleteThat being said, keep a keen eye on AGQ news reels...if you trade options you do not want to be caught in any 3:1 or 5:1 split of the shares
On a lighter note, there does appear to be a market for polished turds.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.tellmewhereonearth.com/Web%20Pages/Poop/Poop_Page_1.htm
Bat Masterson ( played expertly by Val Kilmer )
ReplyDelete" Why, Blythe Masters, you look like someone stepped on your grave"
No problem Kiwi,
ReplyDeleteSmall correction to that chart:
32.50 = 172
ewc58 - ummm ... question: I've seen references to CNBS often in this blog, but when I googled it, I got "Center for Noninvasive Brain Stimulation (CNBS)", among other things ... that doesn't seem to be it ... are you referring to CNBC?
ReplyDeletethanks, und freundliche Grüße!
This day truly is monumental. I'm amazed watching it all unfold.
ReplyDeleteThanks TF, best blog and commentary out there. Have been following you for a while now and wouldn't have made it through the trenches of January without this site
ReplyDelete@snick it is a play on acronyms calling out the mainstream media on the bull shit they propigate.
ReplyDeleteBS = bull shit
it started with CBS = "see BS"
and later morphed to
NBC = NBS
CNBC = CNBS
and so on...
we need gold to push through 1390
ReplyDelete@snick -- you got it, it is CNBC. But due to the extremely large volume of bullshit they broadcast, the ZH crowd (and others) have referred to them as CNBS.
ReplyDeleteKiwi: I hear you brother, same here- sold 40% of my AGQ position yesterday when spot was 31.80. "Surely there will be a correction after that stampede". Uh, no.
ReplyDeleteThis brings up an interesting point. Virtually everyone here owns physical so that is not an issue, but many of us also trade paper to generate profits for physical- and personally, I am so used to trading vs. the EE, what the hell do I do when the EE leaves the building? Where are the pullback buy points when we are breaking new ground?
Don't get me wrong, I am thrilled with the move, I just don't quite know how to trade it- all my regular signposts are gone...
OI for March is 53125 contracts. Only a decline of 2686 contracts!!
ReplyDeleteThe sound of inevitability, Mr. Anderson...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5m1A7zoIcc
hehehehehehe! Flock the CME! Silver margin rate hike? Echo's in empty silver bullion vaults globally!! Greedy liars swimming in the molten silver fiery pit the vermin created!! Now the liars are burning to ashes as naturally over leveraged paper in PM's is redeemed!! Those wanting wealth preservation, in every proven economic situation for millennium, have flooded into physical honest money gold/silver!! Burn you paper fiat ponzi rat bastards! Ashes! Ashes! Lying vampire squids all fall down!
ReplyDeleteJust called Gainesville and tried to buy Morgans only the extra fine was available...bot the limit they had 97 ...didnt ask about culls..very good fine and good all out
ReplyDeleteGold is really annoying today... i bought some longs - but watching the money running away in Silver :(
ReplyDeleteBeautiful day...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=co6WMzDOh1o
Sing it bro's...
@Pat ...
ReplyDeletethat was Doc Holliday played by Val Kilmer. But I sure like the idea of Doc taking on Blythe.
"You're not a daisy. You're not a daisy at all! Poor soul. You were just too high strung."
A little birdie told me- if you want in to TRE, do it immediatley
ReplyDeleteginger
ReplyDeleteFWIW I just swapped out some partial profits from SLW into a couple more lottery tickets.
CLHRF and LVNVF.
Now, that's enough names for me! I mean it!
enjoy the day!
Update on my Morgan purchase......Gainesville is ALL OUT.....I didnt get mine..
ReplyDeleteAfrum- Every one of your posts has at least one line that make me laugh out loud! Thanks for the smile, and the day you end a sentance with something other than an exclamation point will be a sad day, indeed.
ReplyDeleteP.S.- Pat, thanks so much for the info and the updates, I added to my TRE position this AM! Dividends in physical is the most completely utterly genius idea I have ever heard, I really hope this comes to pass.
kliguy38...
ReplyDeleteI'm heading to their shop in a little while...could look at some for you and let you know how they look if you want. I have a delivery to pick up there, but am not sure if I should buy another 2 rolls of eagles or buffaloes while I'm there, or wait until next week. Does it seem that there will be any kind of significant drop next week or will silver just keep on rising?
I'm not sure if it will get down close to 30 or less again, or should I even give a crap at this point.
Pining-
ReplyDeleteI'm totally with you, I've finally gotten "into the groove" of trading the dips....the 10am dip, the 1:30 attack, etc. I was learning when to hold and when to buy
Either things might be totally chaotic from now on, or maybe sliver acts like AAPL stock, the darn thing just goes up and up, until some specific bad news ....which would be cool (except I just sold, dammit). Good trading opportunities needs lots of volatility (or so it seems to me), and that could disappear.
Kiwi (scratching head with claw)
Pat,
ReplyDeleteI bought 30 Mar 8 strikes for .10 just for fun the other day on all the buzz around here
Thanks for the heads up!
I was anticipating the price being bid up by FOS (friends of Santa) to try and squeeze the impostor even harder. Hope it works out...
@Pining
ReplyDeletesame here - i actually missed out on the rally yesterday because i couldn't find an entry point. maybe we can just buy and hold AGQ...at least for a little while
Ok boys and girls...what is the over/under on contracts standing for delivery at the end of Feb??
ReplyDeleteLet's say 12,000. Over or under?
@fjords -- same boat, sold when sivler spot hit 31.5. Rebought AGQ this morning.
ReplyDeleteThe marginal good news is that AGQ is tied to the LBMA price, not the COMEX. The bad, of course, is the counterparty risk.
This not only puts me to sleep, but leaves me less enlightented than when I started reading it. At least JPM is only an 'authorized participant'.
http://www.proshares.com/media/documents/ProSharesCommodityCurrencyProspectus.pdf
One miner that I haven't seen anyone talk about is ECU Silver Mining/ecuxf. Does anyone else have a position, opinion? I think the shorts might just get torched again like last year when it went for the .60's to above $1. I know Bill Murphy's a heavy holder of the shares. I think once it breaks $1.40 its headed to 1.75 in a hurry.
ReplyDeleteCan anyone explain the why there's such a difference in volume from March, April, to May's contract - 64,652; 104; 17,658? Meanwhile gold has most of its contracts in April.
ReplyDeletePining, Tyler-
ReplyDeleteAlong with the cheerleading on this site, it is nice to get some moral support about feeling a little foolish for missing on the action....I guess there are a new set of rules about silver pricing.
But somehow, just buying and holding AGQ doesn't feel right.
@Tyler- That is part of my strategy too- just hang on for the ride. Our problem then becomes, what if these crazy bastards actually break the comex- not saying it will happen, just what if? AGQ might be a deathtrap then (hence Harvey saying 'get out of all leveraged paper now'. Any ideas?
ReplyDelete@ Kiwi- Just a thought, but since miners and gold are lagging this move, perhaps there is some ground to be made up there for us...maybe we move into that area and go along for the ride? Anyone care to generate a list of good miners who have so far lagged behind on this 2-day move? I would throw out Pat's TRE as a good one now.
Come onnn..., please let $1390 hold.
ReplyDeletePat,
ReplyDeleteThanks for that tip.. I am all out of $ ..but just scrapped up a bit to add some TRE. (Not much..but ..eh.. we'll see)
afrum,
I 2nd Pining's comments.. I LOVE your posts! Your comments make me smile and I love your enthusiasm! !! :]
Eric,
LOL... I absolutely hear you. I'm out of $$$$$ ...I want more $$$$$$$ so I can buy more of these yummy shares in those yummy silver & gold companies. What's a girl to do? "/ ....Swap out some of that SLW and send some my way. You know you have too much anyway. :] ...Seriously, I took a look at your latest two picks and I like them both. I especially really like LVNVF. I have added both to my watchlist and hope to participate before they go too high. ......If you DO find yourself tempted to swap out some more of your other shares.. please look at Silvermex. ..or CZN. Got really high hopes for both!
Traders,
ReplyDeleteGiven all that we've discussed and all we've anticipated about March contracts for the past 6 weeks on this site, how are you feeling about holding through the long weekend?
I took 30% off the table today when we hit 32.80 and have plenty of breathing room on my trade, but still...
What is everyone thinking?
Turd (or anyone who knows) - I have a question, I know you had some March futures options (I think you rolled them yesterday). Assuming this all goes down and one wanted to participate in the COMEX squeeze, would you suggest, or do it yourself, putting up the money for a 5,000 oz delivery? I don't know enough about futures options, and it's never crossed my mind to be assigned a futures contract, but it seems like it might make sense in this case. I've read your post about taking delivery, but I'm unclear how that works if I just have an option. Do I make sure my account has enough cash in it, and just let the assignment take place, and then see what happens? I guess I will call my broker (IB) and see what they say.
ReplyDeleteThe bigger question is, is this a good idea? I'm holding physical already, but not 5k oz. I wouldn't mind having it, but I also don't want to be the victim of a COMEX default (just the beneficiary).
Seems like it might be something others are considering, maybe a post about it would be useful? Thanks as always for your excellent words of wisdom. I pay others for a lot less useful advice, and I'm planning on a decent donation very shortly. My last one was a little small, but we're rockin' now!
32.8 seems to be haave strong resistance... could this be related to JPM?
ReplyDeleteBrian,
ReplyDeleteMy gut says it will be under 12000 standing, but if the enthusiasm among the big and bigger fish is anywhere near the enthusiasm at the 'Blog of the Great Turd', it will be over.
Just my 2 cents
P.S. Verification word is 'weler' as in silver is doing very much weler today than yesterday?
@ pining, kiwi
ReplyDeleteAGQ absolutely is a trap. we do know that comex shouldn't be defaulting at least until the end of the month. by hold i mean more like keep a hawk's eye on it all day or put in some stops.
i just feel like an idiot for trying to trade it when i miss out on days like yesterday. i don't have enough physical to feel all that excited about it.
at the same time surely some profits will be taken? turd would know better where to expect that
I've started a new thread.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete@Pining
ReplyDeletemy thesis is that the PRC has secretly supported the surpression of PMs by the west, helping COMEX/LBMA to avoid default thus far -- but only in order to use those markets to pump the west dry of PMs.
when they believe that they have as much as they can practically get (which happened last august) they step in and expose the COMEX/LBMA as frauds. COMEX/LBMA declare liquidation-only markets.
media shills say "they are still the market-of-record for silver", all of us say "they are a joke, they have no metal".
and then the PRC opens its own metals markets -- honest ones, metal-backed -- in hong kong. prices in that market rapidly diverge from COMEX/LBMA, while trade volume in COMEX/LBMA drops toward zero.
Turd,
ReplyDeleteBeen reading your blog for a while now. Has been a part of my regular business day for at least two months. I had to post for the first time because I have to tell you you are not alone. No matter how important you think you might be everyone has a boss. I own a multi million dollar business and I still answer to the missus too. In our household I am the head of security and the ministry of finance. But - she is the fixed operations manager hich means no matter how well (or poorly) I do when company is coming it's time to get out the toilet brush.
Your brother in "arms".
Swampfox.
PS - keep up the great work and thanks for creating an open but civilized exchange for information.
@Mick
ReplyDeleteVery interesting scenario, and quite believable...
Pick52...thanks, had been keeping track but over the last few days simply moving to fast.
ReplyDeleteBTW Turd has started a new discussion thread.
ReplyDeleteTurd,
ReplyDeleteI am enjoying the blog a great deal. While we have every reason to be euphoric, I would advise a little caution. The EE will not go down without a fight. I suspect some type of rules of the game change is in the works. As Harvey said last week don't buy with leverage or the bansters will separate you from your metals.
Monty
Settle down class,
ReplyDeleteBe careful what you wish for... The banksters have plenty fiat otcd and rules changes in their arsenal. Ask the Hunts & Oracle. This needs to be an orderly transition.Remember when the price goes ballistic or should the crimex default or whatevers there will be chaos, people will starve, there could be a an unintended consequential GLOBAL cascade effect it will not be pretty. The overloaded US camel is in a hayfield in 40mph winds! If/when the crimex goes the CRISIS truly begins, this is going to and needs to happen, recognize. Be Prepared!