Friday, February 25, 2011

Your One-Trick Turd, part II

First of all, we should all be very pleased by the action overnight. All who BTFD late yesterday are lready about a dollar to the good on silver and $10+ on gold. For all the angst, wailing and grinding of teeth, gold currently stands off just $10 from its Comex close and silver is down a measly $0.39. I've seen woiss.

Rather than bore you with two more PM charts, here are two other key commodities to review this morning. First, here's crude. Crazy volatile this week but it ain't over yet. Only a move down through 94 would be a sign that things are calming down.
And, rather quietly, DrC has halted his sharp decline and has put in a rather impressive turnaround. As you know, strength in copper often spills over into the PMs so this is an encouraging development.

Lastly, a lot of chatter lately about how this "board is too bullish" and that "Turd is always long". Everyone needs to understand something: If you're looking for trading advice like when to sell and when to buy, you need to look elsewhere. There are lots of shills and con artists out there who are willing to provide you with this "information" for a fee. They'll gladly take your business. Let me remind you that this site and all the wisdom contained here is provided free of charge. All that is asked of you is that you occasionally visit our sponsors and consider "feeding the turd". I have developed a bit of a reputation for accurately predicting moves in the PM markets. That's all well and good and I've never tried to hide my methodology from anyone. However, if I were to pretend that I could, with consistent accuracy, call every single short-term top and bottom, I would quickly be shown to be just as useless as Prechter et al and my long-term message would end up being ignored.

I am not long just for the short term. I am long intermediate. I am long long. I am currently in April and June gold and May silver. Dips like yesterday don't bother me because I am extremely confident that my May $35 silver calls will, eventually, make me money. Whether or not EXK traded off $0.20 makes no difference to me, either. The trend for everything PM-related is UP until and unless the fundos change. Needless to say, I'm not expecting that to happen anytime soon.

The end of The Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. I am attempting to prepare accordingly. You should, too.

197 comments:

  1. @Shores

    They had never promised me a rose garden...... Just a comment after so much hoohaa.

    雷声大,雨点小 is meant to be for another forumer....guess who?

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  2. Thinking about adding to my miners if we get another beatdown like yesterday. We'll see...

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  3. Thanks Turd... I am also long until the fundamentals change. Buying the dips always makes me a happy guy

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  4. Good morning Mr. Turd,

    Don't let the morons getcha down. There are plenty out here who deeply appreciate your creation here and the timely commentary by the Great Turd and his many learned guests. Take care Buddy.

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  5. thanks Turd... (feed the turd) Still cracks me up. I am in May silver also. You and I have something in common. Thanks for the update. I was pleased to see silver up over night also.
    Lets hope we get 8000 to stand for delivery.

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  6. Does anyone know if today's comex OI will be final for Mar delivery, or do we need to wait for Monday's number as well?

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  7. (part 2 from Butler)

    Here’s my letter. Use any part of it or just the last sentence on a copy/paste basis if you wish.

    Dear Chairman Gensler and fellow Commissioners:

    I urge you to approve the staff’s proposal on position limits, including limiting exemptions to bona fide hedgers. I would ask you, however, to readjust the proposed formula in silver. The current formula would result in a position limit of over 5,000 contracts for any single speculator, on an all-months-combined basis. 5,000 contracts is the equivalent of 25 million ounces of silver. This is too high of a threshold in light of the realities of the world silver market.

    There are only three mining companies in the world who produce more than 25 million ounces of silver per year and only a similar number of industrial consumers using more than that amount. Any speculator holding an amount of silver derivatives greater than what 99% of the world’s silver producers and consumers make or use in a year would have inordinate pricing power. The purpose of speculative position limits is to prevent such a circumstance.

    Please institute a 1500 contract (7.5 million ounce) position limit for silver.

    Respectfully submitted,

    (Your name)


    The instructions for submitting a comment can be found here http://comments.cftc.gov/PublicComments/CommentForm.aspx?id=965 All that is required is your first and last name and email address (repeated) and to use the validation code before submitting your comment. Your email address will not be published, but you will receive a confirmation that your comment was recorded. If you have difficulty entering your comment electronically, you can mail it in, but I just did it and I’m not a computer maven.

    Please remember that your comments and name will be published for the record. Accordingly, please be professional and limit your comments to position limits, the issue at hand. Also, please comment only once, but be sure to comment. It is important that the Commission knows your opinion on this matter. You can view the public comments on position limits here:

    http://comments.cftc.gov/PublicComments/CommentList.aspx?id=965


    Ted Butler
    February 23, 2011

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  8. I'm long generational. I don't watch the PMs to see how my investments are doing. I watch them to see how the world is doing.

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  9. My wife recently had a conflict with city officials where we live. She asked her friends on Facebook to contact the city and demand action. They were swamped with calls, caved in and asked us to call off the dogs.

    The more CFTC letters, the better. They may not read them, but they tally them and politicians don't totally ignore the public.

    Thanks to those of you who prodded me to send my letter in the previous thread.

    Ted Butler's letter: http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1298557244.php

    CFTC letter submission site: http://comments.cftc.gov/PublicComments/CommentForm.aspx?id=965

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  10. Namaste Turd for your priceless work!!!!

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  11. Turd, we love you just the way you are.... ;-)

    I closed out my last mutual fund in the "regular" stock market yesterday, I figured with the Middle East exploding, price of gas skyrocketing, and now the bad GDP numbers, the market would drop like a stone....but the futures make it look like it's going to be business as usual, a steady climb.....is the Fed money that powerful to override every external event in the world? I hate to miss out on the gains, but my gut tells me when it drops, it's going to be ugly. Any thoughts?

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  12. @caramel - Yes, it is theoretically possible to transfer a position from one broker to another (option or contract, I suppose). That probably makes more sense with a contract since you're talking about a lot of money (if you are fully funded at least). It seemed easier to just sell the option and buy the contract at the new broker. I ended up screwing up the timing, though, and taking a hit on the difference. In the big picture it's not an issue, but it still sucks to lose a couple thousand due to poor timing.

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  13. Turd, I believe the fundo's have changed, they are more bullish for the PM's. With GDP being revised down, gives Fed more cover for QE3+.

    Did you see the M2 chart? Wow

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  14. @caramel: what is the PNT you requested?

    Gang, watch my Silver Data spreadsheet update realtime during NYSE trading hours:

    Click Here

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  15. Turd, you rock. Love the info and insight. My education has increased daily just reading the posts and comments. Keep up the good work.

    Word verification "excons"! WTF?

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  16. "Turd is always long".

    eating a good assortment of ruffage will always guarantee this out come ....

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  17. All praise the mighty Turd!

    Adding to my micro cap mining stocks today.

    Like Clifton Mining!

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  18. Turd, that post was a long time coming. It takes all kinds to make a world, but I still cannot understand the ingrates portion.
    Here you are, sharing your knowledge, sharing your updates, sharing your blog for others to participate, but there are always a few who have to piss and moan.
    ITS FREE!!!!!
    Come here, read if you like, or don't, no one has a gun to your head. No likey? Don't let the Turd hit you in the ass on your way out.

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  19. Up till this day, Ted Bulter is still of the view that CFTC will be our Guardian Angel???

    Cerberus will always be Cerberus.

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  20. Thanks, Turd. Soon as I find employment once more, I'll drop a tip in your big, yeller, hat. Until then, I'm stuck with clicking on your ads.

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  21. TF, big thank you as always. If you're able to, make sure you feed the Turd via donations and/or clicking on the links.

    JC, we'll need to wait until Tuesday I believe to get final #'s for those standing for March.

    qussl, something or nothing may happen but pretty good theatre imo :)

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  22. @sass

    I believe caramel is referring to privately negotiated transactions.

    Ve been wondering what they represent too.

    Curtains any idea?

    Many thanks in advance.

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  23. I see a descending line off of yesterday's highs that we have not broken yet. Assuming Blythe is a painter, I hesitate to stay long until I see us break over that line significantly. We are sitting right now at a small support level during yesterday's raid. I may have to exit if that does not hold... Can Blythe afford another raid? what did she gain yesterday?

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  24. Hammer dropping. I ain't ascairt!

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  25. Turd ... only been here a few days ... really good stuff

    Anyone here using International Brokers (IB) to trade? I am presently using TD Amer and considering switching to IB. Any thoughts (good/bad) would be appreciated

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  26. Kiwi-

    Trust your gut. I would just add that with the traditional stock market now almost completely untethered from either fundamentals or reality, and instead essentially being driven mindlessly by Fed$ and HFT algos, a catastrophic event is not only possible but on a long enough timeline, is a near certainty. Since one cannot have any idea when this will occur there are far better places to invest your capital. Shiny things that stack well and look pretty, for example.

    And they are available in TWO colors- a classic metallic yellow and a jaunty metallic grey...

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  27. Chawanmushi - no worries I get it now.

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  28. @Chin do you mean Interactive Brokers? I use them, they are very good, cheap, fast, accurate. It's like $1.00 to trade 200 shares of stock.

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  29. @Turd Thanks for all your efforts, keep up the good work, and I click the ads regularly plan to feed the turd soon too ;)

    @sassballsgrandpa
    Wow great info on there, thanks!

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  30. @Chin: I used IB years ago. Their executions are wonderful. Depending on how active you are, and what you trade, IB is superior to Ameritrade in most every way.

    I try not to be too much of an active trader so I use Ameritrade for cheap commissions. Prior to this I used ThinkOrSwim who is AMAZING but they weren't giving me margin on a stock I own A LOT of and it was hindering my ability to make small gains using that stock so I switched to Ameritrade.

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  31. wise words Turd !

    On the long run there is no other way than up

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  32. Turd - A gentle reminder that all of us here, who go to this blog every, single morning to get your prospective on the PM's - WE wouldn't trade YOU for the WORLD! We were all waiting in the bunker with you while noting volume was low, wondering if the bomb would fall on us, or whether allied forces would shoot the bastards down. So they hit us and there was carnage. The flying monkeys are scarey. But we came out this morning, the sun is shining, the markets are open and it's game on again. Keep coming monkeys, we're reloaded because we BTFD!
    PM's: YOU, WE, WORLD
    ProjectPat

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  33. @sass yes Interactive B ... thanks for the correction and the info ... I have fooled around with the software demo's abit and trying to get a feel ...

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  34. I'm not fucking selling. Fuck you JPM, Fuck you Fed, Fuck you Blythe Shitbreath. Go choke on dicks. Silver can hit 22 today, I don't give a shit. I'm not making it easier for these motherfuckers to perpetrate their crime. Go ahead, steal my fucking money assholes. Keep your gay ass fucking ponzi going a little longer.

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  35. Turd, it's the comfort that comes from knowing you're in the right place at the right time. We read the tea leaves, we placed our bets, and are in it for the long run. BM's poop sorties like yesterday's can't ever take that away from us. Hell, we're back to 32.72, she can't even keep it down for very long. Only gave us another BTFD.

    Eric, do you have any exposure to Cu miners? One I really like is Western Copper (WRN). After Northern Dynasty's Pebble deposit, sources show that WRN has more "pounds in the ground" than anyone.

    Any thoughts from anyone on WRN or any other Cu miners?

    I also like PAL and Colossus for exposure to Palladium, would welcome good palladium picks as well.

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  36. @Frank N
    Frank, why don't you tell us how you REALLY feel! ROTFLMAO! To tell you the truth, I'm right there with you, buddy, I'm just not so "colorful"..

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  37. Serious battle going on between 32.60 and 32.80

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  38. Wow Frank, easy with the language.

    There is nothing wrong with an echo chamber, when you are hunkered down in the bat cave. Some people seem to live to mock, and must be ignored.

    Those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind.

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  39. 'I am not long just for the short term. I am long intermediate. I am long long.'

    -that's what she said

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  40. Does anyone here have insight as to what PNT or privately negotiated transactions are?

    It's listed on the CME daily bulletin and reported as volume along with GLOBEX and OPen Outcry volumes.

    Thanks in advance.

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  41. @myth ... thanks ... I like TD Am ... straight forward and logical ... Etrade is a mess spending to much on cute baby while letting functionality drop right in the diaper ...

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  42. Mark Haines just interviewed the head of Great Panther on CNBS... tried his best to pass off the rise of silver as "speculation" ~ the expected ponzi shill spin ~ meanwhile, GPL chart up in the corner of the screen was showing a rise, up 3.32%

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  43. SBG, as others have said, thanks for your interactive spreadsheet, great tool.

    If you're open to additions, please consider Aurcana (AUNFF)
    Silverquest (SQIFF)
    Mirasol (MRZLF)

    Mille grazie!

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  44. Dear Mr. Turd,

    Do you have an Amazon.com wish list? If so please post it that we may send you gifts :)

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  45. Thank you all for the kind words and support.

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  46. @ Dr. Jerome

    Yes I've been wondering about that as well. For the past...I think two days? my netdania data chart is showing ridiculously low volume. I don't get it, it's as if everyone suddenly stopped trading yet prices move up and down anyway, and massively so. Usually volume seems to range around 2.000.000 to 5.000.000, yesterday and today? not even 300.000.

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  47. If you look at the bottom of my Silver Data spreadsheet, you will find all kinds of interesting tabs, including COMEX, Zack's info etc. And the prices update realtime during normal trading hours:

    Silver Data Spreadsheet

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  48. No disrespect Mr ferguson but there will always be folks who need, nay, crave to have someone tell them what investment move to make next. I mean Jeez-o-pete I would have thought Madoff would have been a lesson not easily forgotten. Oh well, good job as always Turd. You can lead a horse to water but you can't make them drink!

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  49. I'm new here but I am impressed by the cool hand of the Turd. Always counterpunch, always buy the fake dip, bob and weave and do the rope-a-dope. Let them swing themselves out on these quick 5 minute abcdleg elevator drops, then come in like the vultures and carrion that you are and triumph with your will and savy.

    If you notice, virtually all of the elevator drops are in a abcd wave pattern with the wave a-b and c-d being of nearly equal length, - thats how you know the swinging down is done and one can begin to load up the tug boat. The b to c leg is usually short and perfunctory and of the headfake variety. Just my two cents.

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  50. In a post Harvey says we will know final OI at `1:30 on Monday the 28th, or will we not know til the report on Tuesday?

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  51. Pablo, you crack me up.
    My wish list is for peace and the health of my family and friends.

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  52. Larry,

    What part of the contracts structure is the letter by Ted Butler referring to? Forward contracts? Spot month is set to 1,500 contracts, effective 3-28-11.

    SE

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  53. Fleve

    Same thing here too as I use netdanie too(thanks to a bro whom introduce it here).

    As for the low volume, i always remember the 2005 Asian Tsunami. People at Phuket Beach in Thailand stand at the beach in wild amazement when the tide retreat into the ocean, only to be........

    Just that this time round, we dun know whether the wave will come sweeping us UP or DOWN.

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  54. Been reading every word for a long time - there seem to be a number of people who are trading in/out of different vehicles.

    It may go without saying.....but everyone should keep a substantial core position in your PM vehicle of choice- this is a Bull market, and you don't want to get left behind post-sale waiting for a dip that only comes $5 higher than today. Use appropriate risk management to avoid huge drops, but don't lose sight of the big picture - PM markets are going much higher as the USA and world economy tank.

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  55. My wife raised an eyebrow (way the hell up) when I sent her a link and she realized I was following a guy named Turd in connection with our PM investments. Most amusing was the fact that she thought the references to "BM" were just more references to Turd. She couldn't figure out how so many people could love and hated one man.

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  56. Fundamentals are the same, but politics are worse than ever.

    Consider where you want to apply your fiat before false flag ops become our new reality, to wit "While the US insists that Davis is one of their diplomats, and the two men he killed were robbers, Pakistan says that the duo were ISI agents sent to follow him after it was discovered that he had been making contact with al Qaeda...(and), Pakistan's ISI stating that top-secret CIA documents found in Davis's possession point to his, and/or TF373, providing to al Qaeda terrorists "nuclear fissile material" and "biological agents", which they claim are to be used against the United States itself in order to ignite an all-out war in order to re-establish the West's hegemony over a Global economy that is warned is just months away from collapse..":
    HTTP://GEORGEWASHINGTON2.BLOGSPOT.COM/2011/02/CIA-AGENT-CAUGHT-RED-HANDED-AIDING.HTML

    We are here to fight for the very survival of our country, planet, family, friends and future, in the midst of a financial Coup d'Etat:

    http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/straight-talk-catherine-austin-fitts-we-are-victims-financial-coup-detat/51951

    We are on the right track, no doubt. Buy physical PM's and get jiggy with home preparedness. I only wish I knew if I should get my IRA funds out now and take the penalty. I took out enough to buy a monster box, but "the check's in the mail." Thanks Fidelity.

    Some days I feel like I accidentally got ahold of some of Khaddafy's "kids" hallucinogenic pills. I try to focus on the big picture, not the flashing nightmare images.

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  57. Been lurking here since day 1 . Turd you will be getting a nice donation when I cash out of the positions you helped lead me into and a small one before that . IE Silvercorp metals and Endeavour Silver . I have a question for you and all the knowledgeable people here . I bought some PSLV and PHY in mid November . The price of both Ag and AU are both higher than at that time , yet the PHY is actually at a loss at this point ( very minimal ). Au was at 1366 and Au at 26.?? . The PSLV is up a tidy 36% but the PHY not so . I took these positions because I couldn't buy physical while out of the country , with a mind to cash out and convert upon my return , but the PHY has essentially broken even (Not Complaining ) . Does anyone know why PHY doesn't seem to track the price of gold the way PSLV seem to track the price of silver . Sorry if that was convoluted but it's late here in Asia . Anyway , Turd YOU ROCK !!!

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  58. Kaare G. Foy of Great Panther mentioned (CNBS interview a few minutes ago) their production cost is around $6 per ounce... + profits +

    long SLW, PAAS, GPL, EXK, NUGT

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  59. to clarify, the first a to b down leg is usually the same length as the last c to d down leg. Thats a decent indication of the bottom approaching. I beleive that the hunter,killer Algo Robots are preprogrammed across the board to this pattern and it is based in primordial psychology. You see it again and again and its a gift if its understood and recognized but terrifying if one is unaware of its 'meaning'. Again just my two cents. The first wave down is the 'show' The 2nd wave down is the intended 'awe' that dumps out most hapless retail right at the bottom because its the 2nd punch and then everyone is expecting a 3rd and 4th phantom punch that never comes.

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  60. geneparm

    post of the day so far.

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  61. Up till this day, Ted Bulter is still of the view that CFTC will be our Guardian Angel???
    -----------------

    I've tried to tell Ted and other people that in the past. Gensler is FORMER GOLDMAN SACHS. Period.

    That's why we need to get the hell out there and buy up all silver and gold at all 6,000 coin shops in the US, BEFORE Americans have to go back to school to learn Chinese so that they can learn to ask, "What time would you like your laundry ready, my Lord?"

    As I've heard it said, silver might be all the Chinese you need.

    SE

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  62. Rumors From
    http://silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com/2011/02/paging-blythe-we-hear-there-are-19500.html#comments



    Paging Blythe, we hear there are 19,500 silver contracts standing still, paging Blythe
    Okay here's how its going to go today:

    1. Just in from a trader on the desk-Blythe is handing out 30-50% premiums OVER spot to settle in cash.

    2. 19,500 remaining resolute. So you see where her problem is still???

    3. In order to get this to ZERO, she needs to HAMMER the price today to entice more to settle for cash before Monday.

    4. Bring it you world corrupting whore, we have campaigns coming soon that are going to spread to the world this time.

    5. Just received another text, 4500 contracts will not be settling in cash no matter what the premium is...is this the Wynter Benton group? They are going to have to do better than that!

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  63. Second time these MF's have triggered my conditional stop and taken the market higher.

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  64. As a "new guy" to all this...I asked you yesterday "what are you doing with YOUR money"...and it was an honest question. Not meant to be offensive.

    Were you buying? Holding? Or selling? That's what I'd LOVE to hear each update or comment. Have it as a signature..."Turd is buying XXX now...Turd is holding tight, this will pass quickly...Turd is selling XXX and XXX as he types".

    Why not hang it ALL out there? Give us "amateurs" a REAL lesson in investing. A play by play of what you are doing to make money. Is it a secret? If a few more people mirror it...it won't work? Use the donations to make an account that you trade live in full view...let us see how it goes...see if you truly are an oracle. Hell, if you're really that good, you'll make a mint.

    I'm not trying to be a prick here...it's just all been vague to me. Wishy washy. It might do this, it might do that.

    I'm ALWAYS wrong it seems...I'd like to see how someone else...who WINS does it. That way, I can see where I'm making my mistakes. It would help greatly.

    Hell, start a "paper", pretend money account and let us watch how you trade it. If I could just get back what I've spent in wasted trade commissions, I'd be a few grand ahead of where I am now. I'm ALWAYS on the wrong side...I need a GOOD trader to teach me. Up for it?

    You've got a great place here...I'm grateful for it...truly I am...but I'd like to squeeze just a bit more from you.

    Am I wrong? am I asking and hoping for too much? I do things for charity myself...help those who are ignorant (in the good way, just don't know how) better themselves. It's just the market has snookered me too many times. I'm looking for a mentor...but for free. Someone like you who just wants to help others...not a shill just out for a few bucks.

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  65. people are trading paper money, I am also trading paper money, but someone just got all the luck (and to do it round after round, 50% premium!!! Mama Mia!!!)

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  66. Jim, Eric Sprott essentially apologized on King World News for the price action in PHYS. The reason for it is I beleive that the stock was diluted a while back with new shares or something and also the premiums on these vehicles change around alot so that they don't exactly mirror the spot prices. GTU was trading actually at a negative premium 2 weeks ago making it a good buy since you are getting storage and allocation at no cost. Sprott promised not to do all that again and that he wouldn't do it in PSLV, and PSLV I beleive has therefore tracked silver quite well...

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  67. Just wanted to post that today is the 149th anniversary of the Legal Tender Act

    http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/legal-tender-act-passed

    "The U.S. Congress passes the Legal Tender Act, authorizing the use of paper notes to pay the government's bills. This ended the long-standing policy of using only gold or silver in transactions, and it allowed the government to finance the enormously costly war long after its gold and silver reserves were depleted."

    Seems fitting...

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  68. Turd

    Most of us here get what you are all about. Good that you clarified your philosophy, however, as I think some people weren't getting it. It's not about what the price of silver will do today, it's about the value of silver when everything else is losing value.

    Keep up the good work and "Non ilegitimus carborundum", to paraphrase old-swiftboat-vet.

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  69. @ Turd

    My wish list is for peace and the health of my family and friends.

    Amen. I would add the less fortunate who have yet to be enlightened. I am a trying.

    Peace.

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  70. "My wish list is for peace and the health of my family and friends."

    AMEN MR. TURD

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  71. Great stuff here. TPTB [the powers that be] keep circulating at their receptions in D.C., NY and Davos, but there's a TITPB [TURD IN THE PUNCH BOWL].

    Stay thirsty, my friends...say, what happened to the Egyptian delegate?...Oh, he left right after the Tunisian delegate...And why does the Libyan delegate look so pale?

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  72. @ievi - #5 diehard who want physical are probably NOT 'WB-group', unless they changed their mind in the meantime. Hedge funds need to cover the credit used to post collateral for the contracts -- unless times really are a-changing and they would actually prefer to have the bars.
    #3 - if I am holding a contract at this point, why would lower price convince me to settle? Lower price means lower posting obligation, making it easier to hold to expiration and demand the premium, no?

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  73. EWC58,

    PAL , PALL, and SWC have been my best performers to date. I bought more yesterday during the dip. Palladium is the metal of the future. Aside from its catalytic converters usage, Palladium has the highest infinity for Hydrogen. It is also the metal used in cold fusion, now no longer a myth. Palladium is also used in water desalination and recently its use in glass produces properties that is stronger than steel. Put a few ounces in your safe and your grandkids might be set for life.

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  74. @ Joe - Not everyone is comfortable in disclosing what they are buying/holding or trading. Turd or anyone else is under no obligation to do so. He does mention the calls he is buying.

    I however have decided to make this type of information available because others may find it valuable or interesting. As a strong supporter of what Turd does I give a glimpse into my portfolio and what I am doing within the mining sector.

    If you are interested you can follow along at www.mattjohnsontrading.com

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  75. JC, we'll need to wait until Tuesday I believe to get final #'s for those standing for March.
    ---------------

    With the numbers at 19,500 or so basis yesterday, We have today and Monday, so chances are pretty good that enough contracts will roll over to not be a problem for COMEX and JPM. I estimate between 0-4,000 contracts will be left standing or getting premium. Most likely premium.

    I think that what I'm beginning to see here is that the December stand was a dry run, and this March was not intended to be the break-all month. May might not be a break-all month, even if individual speculators are limited to 1,500 contracts to stand on for delivery or settle for premium.

    It looks like one of two things. One, the traders are learning about the system's reactions to these things and are gauging how much it's going to take to break it, or they have discovered a way to beat the shorts at their game, so they may be doing it from now on, collecting premium rather than standing for delivery. Problem is, at some point, JPM is going to get bailed out AND the traders will have made money at our expense.

    However, it looks like because of gold/silver behaviors of people around the world, it will bite back at those parties involved except those of us who have physical.

    Keep in mind that banking services have not gotten far into rural areas of India because of a distrust of paper. They know from first-hand experience why they should not accept paper metals.

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  76. @ievi or Turd

    Please tell me how to access Wynter Benton group's blog or site.

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  77. @Joe ... I understand where you are coming from but you must DYODD ... no one here can truly lead you ... subcribe to a Casey Report ... do your homework ... learn to read charts ... a good place to do that is to buy a subscription at Peter DeGraaf website ... Just google his name ... I did that years ago and it helped a great deal ... what Turd does is his private business ... I hope this helps some ... only you can truly truly help yourself ... good luck to you

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  78. rthaler71
    Thanks for the reply . What do you think about holding PHY for six more weeks until I can cash out and buy physical ? PSLV has been tracking the price rather nicely so I can't complain . The PHY is only down .36% but on a $40 upswing in price that's not too appealing ...

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  79. Turd,

    Would you please consider the possibility of utilizing the desire of many here to give some to the less fortunate?

    I'm personally just sick at heart about the ongoing suffering in post-quake Haiti. Those poor people have nothing and our media has evidently decided they don't merit any attention whatsoever. It's as if they're not thought of as human beings by those who make the decisions about what is "news".

    As many of us make decent gains at times, there are opportunities to make small contributions to causes of merit. No doubt many here already do this, and maybe it should remain that way. But it might be nice for Turd Town to get behind a good cause or 2.

    The best reasons:

    -Doing the Right Thing for the weakest among us
    -Amazing returns in the Karma Portfolio

    Talk about maintaining your Core Positions... Please think about this, perhaps in context of the new website.

    Bless you My Man.

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  80. We are just a bunch of dingleberrys that want to stay with the turd and not get caught in da hair lol

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  81. It seems to me that the volume indicators are showing very low trading volume on silver spot. I am assuming that few people are trading paper when they need to buy physical.

    Does anyone have a comment regarding the silver spot chart "volume" indicators? What are the sources of the spot "volume" indicator data on netdania?

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  82. I see nothin but rank desperation by the EE; Extinction Empire! The dead head bankster gangsters struggling to keep higher silver prices from overwhelming the clear & present; self evident fraud! Vermin rats simply fighting the circumstances without, all the while having forged the weapon within to destroy the EE; Evil Entity!!! So it is with greed, addiction, & all self destructive behavior! Short term benefits with long term consequences of complete obliteration! Silver doesn't lie! Silver as an extremely limited resource can neither be created nor destroyed as a monetary store of value come earth or hell!!

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  83. Looks like the action shifted from the silver market to the gold market.

    Has there ever been a time of gold backwardation?

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  84. Joe: I consistently tell EVERYONE what I own. Full disclosure. I don't have to but I don't care. So here you go:

    I own April and June gold calls
    I own May silver calls
    I own one April crude call.
    I own one May wheat call.
    I own TRE, EXK, SVM, EGO and NG.

    That's it. No other equities. No funds. No ETFs.

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  85. I don't want to get ahead of myself but a close today, above yesterday's Comex close, above 33.30, would be a gigantic, huge FU to the EE.

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  86. @Turd, I enjoy reading first thing in the morning....a little too much though cause I always feel a little dirty after my morning turd.

    Your new domain should be www.fromuranus.com

    All of your followers should be called Klingons.

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  87. @Joe

    If you pay attention over a little time, you will get an idea of what Turd is in. He just puts out so much info, look at all the posts just in FEB, that you have to work to digest it all. And remember this blog is not about day trading. We are riding a sustained bull trend here.

    I bought some APR calls on SVM after Turd put it on a list of silver stocks that he likes. I looked at it and decided I liked it too. I bought those calls on WED and they immediately went up in value. The next day they got hammered and are still underwater. But that's okay. Between now and the APR expiration I expect they will pay me back handsomely. More importantly, I will now be a buyer of SVM, both options and stock shares, into the future, thanks to the knowledge I picked up here.

    IMHO, I don't think there is any better knowledge sharing than what this board is already supplying.

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  88. 6a1d asked: "What part of the contracts structure is the letter by Ted Butler referring to? Forward contracts? Spot month is set to 1,500 contracts, effective 3-28-11."

    Answer: the other than spot month positions, in other words, the all-months-combined net position on the COMEX and all other markets (OTC).

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  89. For those who want to follow a real-time pro trader, I suggest http://www.shadowtrader.net/

    You can listen to them call the action on the /ES all day along with suggestions on general stock picks. I learned a ton and all of that knowledge is transferring to PMs since I stopped trading equities.

    But I think Turd is making good calls here, pointing out support & resistance, calling bottoms, warning of other PM market moving events and news. He provides the big picture and someone to hold my hand when I am scared. THAT is what I need to break my bad trading tendencies. Our friends in the comments are making informed suggestions in other PM stocks.

    I am not sure that following another trader move by move is a good thing. I was part of an investors club in Dayton that began doing this and many of us went broke when the markets changed in 2008. My trading decisions need to be on my own conscience.

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  90. Al Jazeera reporting
    * UK announces intent to "rescue" non-com oil field workers from Libyan desert "camps"
    * Jamming of ArabSat channel for distribution of Al Jazeera across the region

    CBS TV Early Show shows an interview with a young man in San Diego who escaped from Libya. He had a picture from a Libyan ATM "Sorry, the ATM is out of cash" or something to that effect was on the screen. He reported that he went to the ATM to get some money and was denied. He went to the airport with his "bug out bag" when he heard that the town was being taken over and tanks were moving through in Arabic. He stated that he went to the airport immediately to buy a ticket to Rome and got on the plane. He did not tell anyone where he was going and just went. It took him another day to get back to the USA. His story was helpful in that it shows that preplanning helps you survive. He called back to Libya and the people who were still there were fearful, cowering in their relatively insecure homes, and were organized as citizen forces to protect themselves. This same behavior occurred in Egypt during its tumult.

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  91. @Matt ... nice of you to offer that to people trying to learn ... the curve is difficult but if one stays with it there is a payoff ...

    @Joe ... nice offering from Matt but I still advocate learning to chart read if you are weak in this area ... Peter DeGraaf has 2 offerings $50 for just the weekend report (1 year) and $200 for the daily (1 year) ... you can also do the daily for $100 (1/2 year) ... Peter also has pick of the week listings on his site for free ... listed there every week Friday morning with charts explaining why it is pick of the week ... with patience you could go thru all past picks and learn alot there ... Peter is a personal friend of mine who has been in this business since the 1960's ... there is alot lot to learn there for free if you cannot afford subscription ... good luck

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  92. @ ragedmaximus

    Just a little too much illustrating my friend.

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  93. Dingleberry! I love it! From now on I am a follower of the Turd, I am a dingleberry!

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  94. Jeff, where are you getting those preliminary numbers -- I'm still seeing 19K, but perhaps I'm looking at old data.

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  95. i was looking at SCCO southern copper the last few days thought the chart looked ripe for a bounce. Does anyone think copper is way underpriced like silver was or has it run up as much as it possibly can????

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  96. Turd, excellent companies!I too have a couple....consider FVI.TO and GPR.TO. Both are very low cost mid tier producers. Some think the mid tier producers are the sweet spot for the silver miners. Rick Rule for one and I'm not betting against him! Just a thought. Thanks for what you do Turd!

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  97. There goes $33...sorry, Blythe, you're going to have to bid much higher to buy back what you sold me yesterday...

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  98. rthaler71

    Sprott's Physical funds are not meant to track prices of silver and gold. They don't add and subtract inventory on a daily basis live GLD or SLV. Essentially, the price of PHYS and PSLV are what the market believes the collection of PMs in their vaults are worth at any given moment.

    I view the price of these as well as GTU and CEF as the "real" spot price for gold and silver.

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  99. Turd, I hope a movie in in the future as this is facinating

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  100. EWC58

    Nice idea you offered. I agree, on all counts.

    Still looks like you called it right - the second Battle of Kursk.

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  101. Turd, I've been watching for awhile, not a posting type. Thanks for the decent insight.

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  102. Turd , any thoughts on how long you plan on holding those miners ? I bought a few of those after you reccomended them and did my own DD . They are up rather nicely already . I appreciate all you do here . You will not be forgotten ...

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  103. @craig I don't think WB has a blog, she just posts things on yahoo boards. My post was from silvergoldsilver

    @CD I agree with you it seems that the WB group, if they exist, was just interested in the premium. As for the posting obligation, wouldn't your posting obligation depend on your purchase price, not the current price. If I bought a contract at $33 my obligation should be to post $165,000. If the price drops to $30 that doesn't affect the amount I must pay since I didn't buy it at $30..right. So if the price drops I would be paying $165,000 for something I could now buy for $150,000..hmmmm. So if they offer a nice premium(say 20%) not to take delivery, I think most people will take it. I am just speculating here as I have never taken delivery on futures, so maybe I am missing something.

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  104. Yessir Skipper,

    It looks like the Rooskie infantry is getting in among BM and Jamie's panzers now. Engine fires and machine gunning of the tank crews to commence shortly... He said with great hope. But the afternoon- - who knows?

    Thanks for the second too, this place and the people who hang here have so much going, we can afford to think of others too.

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  105. @Chin Music

    Thank you for the info on Casey and DeGraff. I am trying to learn the basics also and they look like great sources.

    BTW DeGraff is only $100 for the daily subscription (50 weeks/year)

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  106. unlike last weekend when silver jacked up could blyth jack silver this weekend as a monday morning suprise ????

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  107. Chin Music:
    Thanks for the tip,looks like a good sit.

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  108. Mr. Turd...

    I think you've got a good start on some killer t-shirts:

    Turd Happens (that was yours from yesterday)
    The Turd is Mighty (mine)
    The Turd is Long (from above)

    I'm sure I've missed many other great ones on here as well.

    Oh yeah...The Turd Abides

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  109. Matt, Dr. Jerome, Chin Music,

    Thank you all for your responses to Joe. Some of us just want to learn a little more about the tricks of the trade..if you will.. and aren't sure exactly how to go about it. It's more than knowing WHAT you trade.. ie: it's a matter of learning why you trade it and how you trade it.. what are you looking at and what helps you to make your decisions. Maybe this isn't the place to ask for that kind of help as that is not TF's stated goal or the work he is trying to do here. However, the blog DOES attract many of us who are from all walks of life who haven't been immersed in the trading world but who find ourselves in a position to scramble as hard as we can suddenly to try to save what's left of our financial lives. Thus, the desire to try to learn as much and as fast as we can. For better or worse.. many of us are here trying to learn from all of you who have blazed the trail before. I don't expect anyone to make my investing decisions for me. But I sure as heck would love to be as good as the collective 'you' at making them for myself.

    So, thank you TF for what it is you do here. It is needed. But thank you to all the commentors as well who, for all the 'joes' out here, are quick to step up and guide us to various resources. I will check out all recommended avenues.

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  110. Dear Mr. Turd,

    The way the world is going I surely hope you intend to stand for delivery on that May wheat. You may need it :)


    On another note, has anyone seen this website www.standfordelivery.com - is this a serious site or some kind of prank?

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  111. Robert
    I think you are replying to me as well as rthaler71 . I get what you are saying . But PHY is supposed to have a relatively fixed amount of bullion - it bugs me that the unit price declines while the bullion price increases . Especially when everything else I own has gone up today ! :-) Then again it doesn't seem to be affected by the downswings as much either . I will do some more research . PSLV seems to be more volatile but tracks the price better .

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  112. So any words from our resident shorts? Apartment guy? Got any insight here?

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  113. @Deucedude ... you are welcome and thanks for correcting me ... yes $100 for the daily report which I believe has an option for $50 for 1/2 year ... again go thru his pick of the week offerings to get a feel for what he sends on a daily basis ... just thought .. not sure if he still offers a free trial (1 - 3 months) but he used to ... send him an email and ask ... he will answer you

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  114. Ginger - you said it ! The posters here are a small fraction of the people Turd has helped ! Cheers Turd !

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  115. someone just bought 9.4 million of SLW a minute ago.

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  116. They're beating up Santa's TRE this morning, the bastards. I'm buying if it pulls backs much more.

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  117. EWC58

    Just like WB (BW?) and the BoS are letting the EE attack and attack while they bleed them for all they can. If it ends the same way, the EE will never have the same strength again.

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  118. I got me half a million Decemebr 2012 Gold CALLS at $6000, cost me 1 penny each and if it goes to 7000 that'll be a cool 5 Million.....oh so sweet!

    Also short JPM just because I wanna see them BURN!, Lets hope the Rothchilds take them down!

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  119. GO BABY GO!!!!!!

    My SLW AND PAAS are kickin but so far! I'd love to see us get some momentum going through 33....

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  120. Gold and silver both labile, but both showing an up-trend.

    I guess the day isn't over yet.

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  121. id, I get a streaming feed from the exchange through one of the big data vendors and they usually update the OI at around 10:30.

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  122. How about a T shirt with

    "STEAMIN TURD"

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  123. bubbles ... yea saw ZSL ... probably reverse split like they did last april 1 to 10 ... looked for info on that and couldn't find any ... just speaks to bullishness of silver

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  124. Final Open Interest figures as at yesterday's close available. We now have 14,259 contracts open for a loss of 14,016 yesterday. Hmmm. I think JPM are in the clear this month, most likely. Depends on the losses today, but I'd be surprised if they didn't knock at least another 10k off.

    http://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/Section62_Metals_Futures_Products_2011037.pdf

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  125. @Ginger

    If you haven't already, I encourage you to read Elder's "Trading For A Living" and "The Disciplined Trader" by Douglas. Neither book is new, but then neither is the subject. The latter is a little esoteric, but you sound like someone who would deal with that. In my opinion, he does get to the real heart of what it takes to be successful.

    I admit I was initially put off by both the authors, but I gave them a chance and I have found both to be great guides and references as I grow.

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  126. Looks like a raid in progress now... in both metals. Hopefully just a small one. $.20 in silver and $5 in gold in two 2-minute bars.

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  127. quintus: On the bright side, if numbers drop off any more we can begin to put the whole "WB thing" to bed.

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  128. and to 2nd ginger...This blog derives its primary value from the quality of the "comments". The new site will significantly incorporate that input.

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  129. Almost everything is in rally mode today. Green boxes and bars across the screen. Even the dollar too.

    I also 2nd Ginger's comment. Thank you Turd and everyone else contributing below each of his posts!

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  130. @ Dr. Jerome - thanks for the tip on shadow trader. Looks interesting.

    @ Ginger - you are welcome! Everyone needs to make their own investment decisions but sometimes looking at what others does speeds up the learning curve in some of the methods to the madness!

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  131. Anyone have any idea what's up with TRE this morning?

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  132. If SGS's source is accurate, maybe the 50% premium bought off the WB group (if they existed). I think this was their aim all along

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  133. Speaking of strategy, Phil at Philstockworld suggested a couple of days ago that a more conservative strategy to play gold was to buy options on GLD (I know...). I believe it was to buy a bull call spread at 140/195 and sell puts at 120 to reduce the cost basis (all for January 2012). This captures the upside between 1400 and 1950 at a cost of I believe $55 net (at the time). Downside is losing premium and getting put the shares in GLD at $120 in January if gold is below that. I believe he mentioned 10,000% as the upside on the play if gold is over 1950. I didn't verify that calculation.

    This probably has a more realistic chance of paying off than the calls at $6000, but perhaps not as exciting. I'd love to hear feedback here on that strategy (Phil's, I mean). He doesn't seem particularly bullish on metals, but I thought it was an interesting idea.

    I think this is a bit harder/more expensive to play with futures options. It also presupposes that your options aren't worthless by then due to counterparty risk.

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  134. Turd & Quintus ... yesterday from Ed Steer ...

    Since yesterday's CME report, silver's open interest for the March contract has dropped to 39,528 contracts...down 11,320 from yesterday's final report. Without doubt, the o.i. in the March contract will continue to contract rapidly from here. Both Ted Butler and I are hoping that First Day Notice for delivery in the March silver contract will show that 10-15,000 contracts are standing for delivery. IF that does happen, things could get interesting very quickly.

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  135. @Jim

    FWIW my strategy is simple:

    Trade options in the near term, accumulate miners and physical and keep 'em until GOLD=DOW.

    In the late 1970' we had a similar cycle going on. I saw an example (admittedly the best case scenario) of how buying $700 worth of a certain mining stock and holding it for 5 years would have yielded something like $1.2m

    Look at the prices of TRE and SVM today and ask yourself what they will be selling for in 5 years. Whhooa.

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  136. oldNavy,
    You are always quick to help and I sincerely appreciate it! Just wrote down the book titles ..right along with the other ones I have seen you put out there for reference.

    Now... I just need more time to get all of this done! :D

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  137. Turd - quite right. Unless 'Wynter' launches some kind of stunning last minute operation which leaves us all awestruck and gasping for breath at the sheer audacity of it, we can write that whole thing off.

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  138. Saw the raid coming and sold out....After what we saw at the end of the day yesterday i'm shaky.

    O well....

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  139. ewc58

    No, at this point in time I don't have any copper miners, or juniors with copper-gold deposits. Not that I am necessarily opposed.

    As I've mentioned, my last big turn with junior miners was 10-15 years ago. One of the lessons I came away with at that time was that it was easy for me to get very enthusiastic about some of these deposits, huge numbers of ounces and tonnage, etc. But it often took more years and more $$Billions to get these things actually moving to production than what I expected.

    Gold in the ground for pennies an ounce sounds great, until you wait 10 years and it's still there in the ground. Look for some kind of catalyst that tells you there's going to be some kind of progress. A JV, a major permit, a major new financing, something.

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  140. Interesting Gonzalo Lira article about the unrest in Libya and the ME, and how it could trigger another oil shock which would have all sorts of ramifications:

    http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2011/02/libya-now-iran-then-how-close-are-we-to.html

    If you believe we're going to see more oil shocks and Libya shuts down and other ME states erupt, then my thoughts are one or more of the following:

    1) Long oil (duh)
    2) Long gold
    3) Long silver
    4) Short S&P

    Going long silver and short S&P could make a lot of sense because if there is a liquidity crunch, that would give you downside protection on your silver position if it should get sold off. If there is no liquidity crunch both positions would go your way with rising oil prices. Of course you would want to exit your S&P short if the region stabilizes or when the Fed formally announced QE3.

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  141. Everyone keeps saying that WB's group was just out for premium, yet in one of "her" last posts, "she" said the group had decided to definitely stand for delivery unless silver hit $37/oz. So like Turd says, if many more contracts fall off (and I guess unless silver skyrockets to $37) WB officially is full of it...

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  142. Chin Music - since we're at 14,259 already with a day to go, I think Mr Steer is likely to be disappointed. As am I.

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  143. I'm with oldNavy on the Gold=Dow being a time to sell. I also will start to sell off at a GSR of 15:1 or if silver gets to the $135-$145 range. Those are my sell points.

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  144. If the 30 - 50% premium is really the case, I am surprised demand is not through the roof today. What hedge fund would turn that down?

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  145. Whoa, I know we focus primarily on PMs here, but did anyone happen to notice those massive spikes in agricultural commodities? Anyone have any info on these?

    Further, this is what I tend to like most about this site. I hear so much more than the pointless articles titled, "US Corn Futures Soar 30c Limit on Strong Demand" or "EU Wheat Surges 5% on Demand Hopes" that are passed off as financial journalism.

    It's like Yahoo finance every day has some stupid headline telling everyone why the market is up or down for the day. "The Dow hits 12,000 as Jimmy's ant-farm collection approaches 30,000."

    We can see the price action. Now WHY did it occur right NOW? Why exactly did demand show up, bow out, and suddenly return?

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  146. Quintus ... I agree but as Yogi always said "it ain't over till the fat lady sings" ...

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  147. @Hindsight: totally agree. I can't stand going to the yahoo finance front page anymore. They are always a day late and a buck short. Utterly pathetic.

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  148. From a relative newbie who continues to accumulate on a modest budget, I thank you for your efforts Turd.
    I sent my letter (and personalized it a bit).
    I want to be part of the solution in the end.
    Sincere thanks to all of you other very bright folks who take the time to educate this Liberal Arts Major. Peace.

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  149. @silver monkey: I agree but don't forget that WB gave herself another "out" by claiming that the OI numbers might not be reported accurately by the CME. To me that just reeks of an excuse so that she can come back next month and say "it went great, those lying bastards at the CME didn't report OI correctly."

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  150. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  151. Chin - let us hope against hope :-)

    There is also the fact that although Comex claims 40m oz of registered silver inventory there is no reason to believe they have anything like that amount. Of course JPM can always steal silver from SLV (if it has any) to supplement what they have at the Comex - so who knows how many deliveries are really required to cause them problems?

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  152. @flaunt

    5) long corn

    -food price inflation due to QE
    -tight supplies
    -40% of corn goes to ethanol feedstock
    -massive midwest flooding this spring at planting time. It's still snowing after record snows all winter in Iowa. River ice breakups from warm weather last week is backed up to the wazooooooo.

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  153. I agree with Hindsight. The rush into agricultural commodities today gives me the heebie-jeebies. But, that market and metals are definitely the place to be for the foreseeable future. I just get a little worried when I see people rushing in to place bets on food stuffs.

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  154. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  155. Hypothetical for this excellent brain trust: IF the OI numbers given publicly on Tues (from the Mon 1:30 close) are far closer to a normal amount- lets say 5000 vs. the 10,000+ some (including me) have hoped for, what do you think the odds are that this will trigger a big, big sell-off Tues and Wed? Would we dip below 30 again? Just trying to engage in some strategery- many thanks!

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  156. Quintus ... yes the SLV where they are custodian (scary) but Asians (as reported at KWN) buying SLV and taking delivery may in some way block JPM from taking that route ... wish I was a fly on the wall for some of this

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  157. Jim said...

    "Does anyone know why PHY doesn't seem to track the price of gold the way PSLV seem to track the price of silver"

    Jim,

    The Sprott Trusts trade as a stock, based on 100% bullion backing. The deviation from spot is a function of the (usually significant) premium to NAV(see... http://www.sprottphysicalsilvertrust.com/NetAssetValue.aspx)which is over 15% for Ag just now.

    If you buy in at a high premium level, the stock price 'could' drop while spot rises, if the premium drops (speaking from experience... I bought at a 25% premium... ouch... but it's all good at this level).

    Turd,

    You gotta stop holding it in like that... lol! Love the fighting spirit though... you ever play any hockey? I'm thinkin' you'd be 'one to watch' in the corners (hat may be a problem though)!

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  158. @HindsightGenius - In a nutshell, Spikes in Agricultural commodities are because of....

    1. Bernank printing $$
    2. causing Inflation
    3. causing $$ to fall
    4. causing Commodities prices to rise

    People are looking for a safe haven to invest, and that is always commodities when Inflation spikes and $$ falls. Look at what is going on in the rest of the world. Inflation is playing a huge role in the Middle East and few European countries and now even China and India.

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  159. @Justin

    You're right and that is part of my thinking as well. However, I'm betting that silver will be higher than $145 when GSR is 1:15.

    Loser buys a beer, bar of your choice! :)

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  160. I, like most of Turd's army, find myself wondering about the WB thing. Fascinating to watch! I had the following thought... It was easy to predict repeated takedown attempts by the EE and the consequent lowering of the price. Also easy to predict that the OI would shrink dramatically as the end date for the March contract approaches. So why not wait to the end and step in to bid against the EE for those contracts seeking to sell their position. Potentially you could get in at an attractive price and as the bidding heated up the price could easily spike much higher. Sort of a hiding in the weeds approach...Just a thought but that is what makes this so interesting!!

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  161. All,
    I just glanced at CNBS and their numbers posted showed gold down -$7.8 and silver down -$0.22. Spot on Kitco shows gold up $5.40 and silver up $0.86. Please tell me, is this backwardation?

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  162. @ falunt - Who cares if Comex lies or not about OI in regauard to WB. If they only have enough silver to fill 8500 (or whatever) contracts, then that is all that matters. So the only way they would be lying in my opinion is reporting there is LESS OI then there really is in a last ditch effort to get the remaing longs to roll or take the premium. The hope being that the remaining longs think that the Comex is not in trouble, so they take the huge premiums.

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  163. I am still holding out hope that they are trying to make profits for next delivery month and crippled The COMEX and JPM. I think the OI will stand at 5,000. WB said they may not align with our interests so who knows. If they are full of it it doesn't matter because the fundamentals haven't changed. Silver is being manipulated, there's not very much available, and people will realize that very soon and jump on the the bandwagon. WB represented a stance against JPM. With or without them there will be a day of reckoning. Buy physical.

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  164. As a leveraged trader, what would scare me the most today would be a smackdown like yesterday going into today's close. I BFTD yesterday all the way down yesterday and right now I am loaded and fatter than yesterday. If we don't hold above 33 this time, I have to drop half to be safe. Any insights from other traders would be appreciated.

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  165. @ Pining - I was thinking about the same thing, but my thought is that after we get through February (if the Comex has survived), Blythe and the EE can, "take a breather" and won't have to worry about the next delivery month until May. Therefore, my guess is that the price will rise in early March either way...

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  166. @hindsight

    Corn prices tanked the limit a couple of days ago, as war caught fire along with oil prices and continuing food shortages/QE jacked up food prices. Makes no sense that corn drops like a stone under those consitions. Official CBOT explanation was basically traders dislike the uncertainty wrt revolution in the ME so prices dropped by price limit on the open.

    My exlanation would be that Cargill and ADM know gas prices will spike and spring flooding will be a horror show and supply is already tight. They are the players big enough to manipulate the market AND they have to stand for actual physical deliveries every month to feed their HFC and ethanol plants.

    I wonder how many contracts traded hands after they crashed the price in that paniced market. I held on and it only lasted a day.

    Cargill & ADM = JPMorgue in the corn market.

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  167. Silver Monkey -
    I have been thinking about this, but isn't this expiration a news event that will get sold? So many have been going long silver, now that the event is happening, both the JPM AND the longs will take a breather

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  168. I kinda like this Turd and never thought I would ever say that phrase.

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  169. @silver: I don't care if they lie, but WB said in one of her messages that the Comex may not report numbers accurately. That means that she can come back later and make up a story about how the numbers weren't accurate in the report. Clearly the shorts are in trouble, otherwise they wouldn't be offering premiums to settle. The outflows from inventory will tell all. I'll be watching that closely going through March.

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  170. @ Horatio.

    I think less then 1/1000 of 1% of people invovled in silver have any ideea about the Comex possibly being in trouble. But what the heck do I know!

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  171. SilverSapien- Oh, I absolutely agree. I could see some engineered takedowns on low volume once things die down a bit to clear some of the badely underwater big shorts, then a significant rise.

    But in the VERY near term, I am really wondering about the direct aftermath of all of the Comex / WB / OI drama- If I were the EE I think it would be quite useful to use the "deflating drama" aftermath to crush the price- so as to retrench. Buying Opportunity?

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  172. From my limited understanding shorts have the whole month of march to deliver physical. So unless kings standing greatly exceeds all silver in the vaults dealer plus customer, there is almost no chance that comex defaults. A month is a long time to work out backroom deals with customers for their physical. If anything that's where the "premium" is rather than longs being bought off.

    However this does not mean prices fall, in fact I'll be happier if prices rise with a falling OI as that implies no shorts are willing to come to the table rather existing longs are enticed to sell, ie the paper writers know they can't deliver.

    Just my 2c.

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  173. 12:34 pm EST ... way to quiet right now ... calm before storm?

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  174. If I remember correctly WB said that their measure of win, lose, or draw would be the price of silver by mid march or sooner? She said win, draw, lose was POS 37, 33 to 37, and under 33 respectively? Why would they need to wait till mid march to know if they won or lost the battle with BM?

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  175. @dallas - I gotcha. I guess what I meant was does anyone have any information on why right NOW (in under 3 2 minute bars) did all of these "demands" come to fruition in the form of limit price movements? I know it's a stretch question and one of those, "well if anyone knew they'd be long/short before they happened" but I just wanted to throw it out there because if there's anywhere I'd hear an answer that made me think outside the box, it'd be here.

    @Justin - No doubt Ags have been a great place to be, but I'm curious as to whether we could potentially be looking at the same sort of manipulation or whether we just saw a "correction". I quote correction because it's often what's told to console a poor soul who's getting margin called on a long position in hard winter wheat @ 760 that unexpectedly got slammed to 700 before shooting to almost 1,000 the next month.

    Words of wisdom from Turd (I failed to come up with a clever way to combine wisdom and Turd):

    "...the EE will always be there, trying to keep things from getting out of hand too quickly. Know this and understand it. Don't get too excited when things are going your way and don't get too despondent when they are not."

    Perfectly applies to last week and this week. But Turd, you now seem more sure than ever that the EE indeed will not always be there. I've just about arrived at accepting its existence and planning accordingly. It couldn't possibly be close to toppling...could it?

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  176. AS THE WORLD BURNS....


    19 protesters killed ? Where? This country is flying under the radar with little chatter. If you guessed "IRAQ"..You win the prize!!!!

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/25/AR2011022502781.html

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  177. Where is Blythe today??? BTFD becomes difficult if she is not doing her job. Need spot down under 32.00. Jamie - if you are watching - would you please tell your people to do their jobs. The bulls are waiting with cash in hand...

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  178. @atlee

    How long have you been trading silver on margin? My experience has shown that if you play it too close, you will lose almost every time. You need to pick entry points on the dips and sell some on the way up. When you see silver begin to struggle after a run, it is usually time to lighten up and even go short for a minute, then buy back after the dip. Too much leverage and you will lose 100% of the time.

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  179. Interesting article from Trader Dan about the difference in backwardation in Silver Physicals and Silver paper.

    http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/02/backwardation-structure-appears-to.html

    "if you are a large buyer of silver, and you can get the exact thing by buying a March futures contract at what is a DISCOUNT to the physical market, who in their right mind would not want to do that?"

    Now why wouldn't anyone go for paper instead which is selling at a discount? Anyone?

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  180. @Turd: Damn it I lost a post after I had it all typed out. Something about "conflicting edits." Apparently you are breaking blogspot :)

    @Atlee: I've been trying to think of good ways to hedge leveraged positions and using them to advantage. Hypothetical scenario:

    You are long April 35 SLV calls which are about $3 OOM. You buy some April 29 SLV puts which are also about $3 OOM. You put a stop loss on the puts and if a retrace occurs, you close out your puts at a profit, and use the profits to buy more April 35 calls. Reserve the principle to hedge again after the next up leg. Any thoughts?

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  181. Craig: CNBS is showing numbers in relation to yesterday's Comex close.
    The Kitco charts reset every day based off of the midnight EST price.

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  182. Hi all,
    I have been watching this site for 2-3 months. Great share of info, thanks Turd and all.
    My 2 cents, for whomever likes numbers and statistics, like me:
    - 85% in Bullion, 25% Au, 50% Ag, 2% Pt, 8% Pd.
    - 15% in miners, 20 companies in pretty much equal share, 9 warrants (Agnico, Endeavour Silver, Franco-Nevada, Goldcorp, Gold Wheaton, Kinross, Minefinders, New Gold and Sandstorm), not performing as well as the stocks: 11 stocks (Arian Silver, Aurcana, Great Panther, Impact, Klondike Silver, Olivut (diamonds) and the more solid Silvercorp, Hecla, Silver Wheaton, Pan American and Silver Standard Resources).

    Before (2000-2010) I had Nasdaq stocks, since May 2010 I switched all to PMs and I am up 33%.

    Scared of the miners, maybe should have stayed ALL in Bullion, but what the heck, I wanted to learn some of the miner action. Miners are passionating, and possible huge gains too...

    But it is not working too well, so far. Back in November or so I started the mining stuff and I was up 6% in one week, and 10% the next one. Needless to say that it went back down -34% or so...! Now I am almost on a par, but this is really a headache, maybe better to buy bars and just wait, long term for me (3 years?) is 3-4000 Au and a SGR of 16 again. Oh well, I never saw a clearer investment picture in my life.

    And btw, I subscribed to 5 newsletters and I am cancelling them all!! (for miners an exception might be the Coffins) most of the info is on the internet and great sites like this one (and FOFOA's), so if you have the time, read, educate and trust your feeling!



    Cheers.

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  183. I'm still a little shell-shocked after yesterday, and feel better with some hedging in place. My hedge has lost money today, but my contract is up more than that, so I'm happy. I have a feeling there might be another shaking of the tree today --why not, it worked so well yesterday. After that, I think we're in the clear for a bit. Hopefully rational market forces will return and we'll be heading up again.

    If anyone cares, I haven't heard from my broker that Blythe is offering me money to get out of my March contract. I'm not quite sure how that would happen. Would they tell my broker to have me call them? Surely they wouldn't send a note that the broker could read and tip their hand. Or do I assume they will just find me, being the evil empire and all?

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  184. OT, but with all the drama the past week or so, this seems appropriate:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0GFRcFm-aY

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