Friday, February 4, 2011

More BLS BS

Wow.

I could wax poetic and philosophic again about the BLS BS report and the reporting/discussion on CNBS. Nah. What's the point? Instead, I'll just give you this definition from Wikipedia. It pretty well sums it up:


"Disinformation is false or inaccurate information that is spread deliberately with intentions of turning genuine information useless. For this reason, it is synonymous with and sometimes called black propaganda. It is an act of deception and false statements to convince someone of untruth. Disinformation should not be confused with misinformation, information that is unintentionally false.
Unlike traditional propaganda techniques designed to engage emotional support, disinformation is designed to manipulate the audience at the rational level by either discrediting conflicting information or supporting false conclusions. A common disinformation tactic is to mix some truth and observation with false conclusions and lies, or to reveal part of the truth while presenting it as the whole (a limited hangout)."


I think markets are funny. They kind of learn, like a dog or some other pet. TPTB attempt to manipulate money and order flow but when their attempts to manipulate come too frequently, the market starts to ignore them. A simple case in point is central bank intervention in FX. It used to be feared by nearly everyone. Now it happens so frequently that its part of the game. The BOJ used to be feared by commodity traders worldwide. Now the "half-life" of a BOJ intervention is about 30 minutes. I mention this because of this headline:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-04/cme-raises-margins-for-silver-copper-platinum-after-today.html
Two months ago, a margin increase was met with a 10% drop in silver in two days. Hmmm. Now look at today's copper chart:
Now, I don't have all the specifics yet but this chart looks like the "big margin announcement" has had a positive impact on price. Again, hmmmm.

The PMs are once again following their typical "First Friday" action. Sell off on the manipulated headline number...rally back strongly once the smart money gets into the weeds and sees just how shitty the report actually is. I have a last here at 9:45 of 1357 and 29.19. As we head into the weekend, here are some levels to watch. In gold, we're probably in for a 2-3 weeks UPward consolidation as we slug through some stickiness. See here:
In silver, again please remember the adage about support becoming resistance. We will run into some sellers up near 29.50 and, from there, all the way up to 30. It might take all of next week to tack on the $0.80 we need to break through. Be patient.
That's it for now. Will update as needed. TF

67 comments:

  1. yuppers turd....game on.....now for the trades to the upside.....more fun than trading a down trend for sure

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  2. Silver performs again much better than Gold...

    Do we reach the 30 today ???

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  3. don't get greedy, marv. Stay patient.

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  4. Greetings everyone,
    I would like some suggestions about where to open a trading account. I am interested in PM, miners and other comodities and regular stocks. I am new to all of this and will be starting out with a very small amount (a few k$) to learn and build my knowlege and experience. Also any sites you could recommend for a newb to get a better education on some of the fundamentals of the trading markets would be appreciated.

    I enjoy the blog, it's oozing with intelligence and wit and I am trying to absorb as much as I can lol.

    Thanks in advance for any feedback

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  5. "Limited Hangout"

    Any Webster Tarpley followers here (saw his name mentioned once or twice, maybe) might know that Webster considers Julian Assange/Wikileaks to fall into this category as a CIA asset...Not attempting to ignite a political discussion, just thought it was interesting the term made it into a TF post

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  6. Duece paper trading is not for the uninitiated......just buy the physical gold and silver google Gainseville Coin and buy silver bullion coins or bars.....This is a chop shop market........don't get in it

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  7. Did not have a very good experience with Gainsville Coins when I bought from them.

    Just sayin'.

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  8. How about a physically backed ETF like Sprott
    as well? Im not a trader either so i stick to
    a similar UK ETF and physical , plus a few miners.

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  9. Silver tells the tale of what is going on...
    Egypt is in turmoil...
    Physical is running short...
    USDx on a rally, eventually prime for holders to bail once it tops...

    50$ Physical Silver by April 2011 is my sentiment.
    http://thehardrightedge.com/2011/01/30/50-physical-silver-by-april-2011/
    -
    Could be wrong, but I guess I am a bit more bullish in my youth.
    -
    Scott J

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  10. Turd, your Blythe/Reprecht video from last week had the Monkeys setting up shop at $29.75.

    Given the spike already this morning, that may be a realistic target.

    On your way to another great call!

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  11. Thanks, Dan.

    Try this, deuce:
    http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/opening-options-account.html

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  12. For a note,
    Somebody just bought 400,000 shares of ASLRF.PK (Arian Silver on Pink Sheets). Arian silver follows the price of silver very closely from my observations, I think this shows the buying that is about to occur...

    Avg 10day Volume: ~150k
    -
    Scott J

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  13. In light of the old Chinese Gold Traders advice to look behind us when all eyes are being drawn to silver, does anyone have thoughts on this quote from Harvey in his last post?

    "The huge rise in the premium of Sprott's gold fund is very noteworthy."

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  14. Just a quick note reminding people of Turd's post of January 19 "A little HUI on the side". Remember this?

    "EXK: My personal favorite. Do your own research and I think you'll agree. At $6, its a great buy. At $6.50, its a great buy. At $7, its a great buy..."

    I bought the next day at 6.00 and now, 15 days later, EXK is at 6.93 for a 15.5% gain. Again, that's in two weeks.

    Of course, FXtrader missed out on this one since the post paid insufficient attention to Bollinger bands. Oh well.

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  15. Paper traders will get sooooo burnt in the end that you can't even imagine!!!!
    You will wait for you ETF "gold" until the last day of your life!!!

    FOFOA maybe be difficult to read but you better do it before it's to late!

    Trading with the Satan will kill you!

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  16. @Deucedude... before going online to buy physical, check out every single coin dealer in your area, save yourself any shipping fees and wait periods.

    RE: employment report... so, as the situation gets worse and more Americans stop looking for work or fall off the dole, the "official" unemployment number will continue to get "better"... 9%, 8.5%, 8%

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  17. cnbs says egypt announcement due soon. Obama beating up Hosni to go sooner rather than later -- be careful now--oil taking a dump--someone knows

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  18. Third day in a row for a takedown during the 10am EST hour. Isn't that interesting?

    No FUBM Wednesday, BIG one yesterday.

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  19. Pat -

    Where can I find the prologue to Santa's Annual report? I am unable to find it.

    Thanks!

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  20. Re: the next set of raids

    What are we calling the new downside resistance for those of us with trading positions Turd?

    $28.50? So far two mini bounces off 29

    Thanks

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  21. @Silvermonkey:

    I think this is what you are looking for - try this link

    http://www.tanzanianroyaltyexploration.com/i/pdf/2010-AnnualReport.pdf

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  22. agree with comments on local coin dealer.....and buy with cash of course lol......also go in with price comparisons of on line prices....be prepared

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  23. A double FUTF being attempted today.

    Lets hope for a big FUBM to follow

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  24. @ Pick 52
    -
    We have a lot of initial support from 28.70-28.90. I wouldn't be surprised to see the same type of chart as yesterday... watch at noon est., as I have noticed there have been massive rallies that start 5 minutes before noon...

    I doubt this raid is effective.... it is just stalling
    -
    Scott J

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  25. Thanks Scott, I was really interested in the noon move, too. Should be very fun

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  26. Just thinking out loud, outside the box:

    Any chance that the mid-morning takedown is NOT the work of the EE, but rather the work of whoever is orchestrating the noon rally?

    That would be pretty cool, actually!

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  27. Silver Monkey,
    http://www.tanzanianroyaltyexploration.com/s/Home.asp
    Annual report in left side margin; also read the remarks ( and pictures ) from the CEo; Prez; and Vice Prez pulldowns at top.
    This company will transition from an explorer to junior to mid-size very quickly; they are on the fast track and have the best personnel to be found in the industry.
    They also have the Tanzanian gov't complete backing; they beat out 37 other players to land the latest acquisition Buckreef; 37!!.

    And its on sale so far today

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  28. Interesting indeed CO_Dan, if we have a pattern up at noon est, your theory holds much more ground :)

    Also thinking out loud:
    Could it be that it is the banks shorting down and then covering all at the same time? If they control the price going down, I would find it hard to believe that the bankers don't control the major movements going up...

    Maybe though I am just a little to paranoid, thoughts?
    -

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  29. Not that it matters, but I can't find any confirmation of that bloomberg ladies report that CME is raising margin requirements. Can anyone else? Or is she short silver and attempting to push down prices on her own...

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  30. Scott, what I find interesting is that these attacks USUALLY occur during the lowest volume times of the day (i.e. Blythe's famous 8:25am raids), yet the last three days they've happened basically at the height of New York trading hours.

    Short covering by the banks is a definite possibility. One way or another, this pattern has a different "signature" to it.

    My mind starts turning toward Wynter Benton's group, then I say, "naaaahhhhhhh"...

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  31. The likely excuse is that the PM "market" is reacting to the margin hike. What nonsense.
    Lets see if another FUBM will form...itv would be our third of the week!

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  32. F
    U
    Turd
    Ferguson

    Its when Blythe mercilessly hammers us.

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  33. ZH is reporting that all commodities are being sold off due to the rumor that Mubarak will be resigning.
    Can someone please explain to me how this makes the MidEast more stable and peaceful?

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  34. OK, I love the conspiracy stuff, but this is probably a more realistic answer:

    Brent Plunges On Rumor Mubarak To Resign, Takes Entire Commodity Complex With It

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/brent-plunges-rumor-mubarak-resign-takes-entire-commodity-complex-it

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  35. Haha Turd, add it to the long list of logical "market" reactions in the "new normal"

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  36. C'mon, Turd

    For the next 24-48 hours, the Mid East will be more peaceful and stable.

    That's all that matters. Superbowl Sunday, baby!

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  37. @Warren & TF -- this is what I believe Bloomberg referenced in its short headline:
    http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/lookups/advisories/clearing/Chadv11-44.html

    But I don't understand what it means:

    TIER CHANGES FOR Gold Futures (CX-GC) and Silver Futures (CX-SI): Tier 3 goes from 'Greater than 6th Nearby' to '7th – 12th Nearby', and Tier 4 has a new rule 'Greater than 12th Nearby'.

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  38. Exactly turd.....watch the emboldened democracy movement in the other dictator controlled countries in north africa and middle east....

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  39. Thanks TF for the excellent stuff. I use your charts to cement my thinking. I am gonna use my cro magnon brain to outwit the Bernank's 1600 SAT brain.

    Everyone should remember 2 things. The CPI is weighted 42% housing costs. This abomination in housing has kept the CPI doggedly low. It allows the Bernank to claim no inflation. What he is really after, currency war, is to force the Chinese to de peg their currency. I believe that.

    Secondly, I think any collapse will be fast and furious. However, it will only happen once. It is difficult to predict what day you will die on, sans suicide. You will be right only once every 24,000 days or so. I giggle at Turd's prediction of 1600 gold by 06/10. I predict that Turd will not shut the site down if he misses.

    I will give you a pardon just because I love your enthusiasm.

    http://thecivillibertarian.blogspot.com/2011/02/investment-theories-gold-and-silver-cro.html

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  40. This sell-off was engineered for the long bond I think. TLT is being dumped again after the NFP release.

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  41. Anyone know of a free gold futures chart that shows volume?

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  42. 2 Things to watch :

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-03/investors-increase-bets-for-250-oil-on-saudi-disruption-fears.html

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  43. Maybe Mubarak is dumping his gold and silver (and oil and wheat and...) so he can carry a nice stack of FRNs with him when he flees.

    Thank goodness he didn't have any cotton, that seems to have flattened after yesterday's plunge. (cotton...flattened...get it?...I'm just too funny)

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  44. Rui,
    You are right on with your post.
    The Long Bond is nose diving and yield is above 4.7%...they were desperate to try to rally the bonds so they needed money to flow from somewhere into the bonds…answer? Come with a BS rumor and start selling …doesn’t matter if it is BS because everyone sells as soon as the ticker goes red. HOWEVER…getting them to buy sinking bonds is a different matter.

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  45. Nevermind, found the full margin requirement advisory:
    http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/lookups/advisories/clearing/files/Chadv11-44.pdf

    Quite an increase, across the board...

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  46. Rush Limbaugh just cited Zero Hedge and Tyler.
    Just another sign of the Apocalypse!!!

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  47. I keep waiting for the EE counteratttack, but 29.80 seems to be holding this afternoon so far.

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  48. Just bought the dip. Using the old rule "buy the rumor, sell the news" and flipped it, so I think it's time to buy oil and commodities due to BS news from middle east and employement numbers.

    Bought silver and gold. Not many silver 5 oz and 10 oz bars to choose from. Wanted silvertowne and englehard but not available. So got NTR and Academy instead.

    My friend's relative is in Asian banking, and she said this Sunday (PST time, -8 GST) is going to be extra busy for them as they return from Chinese New Year. Everyone get their year end bonus during Chinese New Year.

    So after Superbowl on Fox, I'm going to be monitoring live quotes from Asian market. It'll be interesting.

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  49. $29.80? I must be using the wrong chart....

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  50. I see a great premium play to the upside in slv call options this weekend! Why? They easy money pomo's/additional 25 billion handed to primary dealers from the fed this week is suppressing gold/silver/oil & floating the dollar above 78!! SLV1119C28 march calls lookin good for a fireworks weekend the middle east to option gain to free silver at bankster expense!! Me? I just buy and hold silver when I can get it! Silver eagle order now 5 weeks out! Friend still like paper chasing and using jpig morgue attacks on silver or massive naked short covering to get free commodities from the banksters during orchestrated raids!! Why not! To each their own! Can't stand the paper volatility in PM's!! Leave that to the pros here!!

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  51. I'm thinking the next EE attack will come at 1:30 after COMEX closes? Keeping my powder dry til then....listen for the distant sound of monkey wings getting closer...

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  52. PS! Only 1 out of the last 5 weekends the new year was the premium option hold on slv calls over the weekend into Monday spot close 1:30pm est; off of profits!! This was the weekend before benron burnokio speak! Friends & friends took no premium long call holds that weekend! This weekend they are doing the slv options hold of some calls they put in early yesterday performing nicely!! They'll take initial capital off the table in slv option today at close! Keep a paltry some for a big move this weekend and profit out Monday!! These friends have new king size beds to swing up their giants nards needed to hold long paper silver over the weekend!! So far it's worked out nicely for them!! Huge nard meisters welcome to climb aboard the weekend silver premium run long calls into Monday crimex spot close!!! Make thatt 1 0ut of 4 weekends, as I counted this weekend a plus premium long call slv options play as well! Odds look great it will be but count nard diameters!

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  53. @flaunt
    Amen.... I was already confused.

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  54. Bonds breaking out of the freaky 2-month channel...to the downside.

    http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=CBOT_ZB.H11.E&t=f&a=&w=&v=d3

    Fed losing control? Good for metals? Bad for the world, that's for sure.

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  55. consolidation day in miners....just building for the next leg up.....take a look at GORO great management and they are the real deal with gold AND silver

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  56. You savvy real honest money traders won't be mad at me if I shove people out of line for the new treasury century bond!! hehehehehehehehehehe! Above 4.7% yield on the long bond today and yields blowout entirely as benron burnokio loses fiat currency implosion control!! Global paper money destruction in coast to roast world wide rioting!!

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  57. Sorry for the confusion guys!! On the free physical silver profit trade!! I guess there's only some hear who can follow a good arb!! I couldn't either for years, so sorry I went beyond some traders comp!! I need to remember when I'm green I grow and gettin ripe; I rot!! Just keep accumulating physical silver as I and I'll stop with the easy money arb trades!! I know some here I doin this and couldn't miss the opportunity to take down banksters with own viper funny money!!

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  58. I'm among the relative newbies trading miners with a few $k ... can anybody explain how/why they keep edging downward while spot Ag edges upward? Danke.

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  59. @afrum,

    I don't think it's your trading expertise that confuses people - I think it's your communication skills. I think we'd all benefit if you explained yourself more fully and less excitedly (!!!)

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  60. @afrum,
    Best I can interpret, what you are saying is that the theoretical value of the SLV Call options is higher than the bid/ask? Since the trend and fundamentals point up, its a no brainer to jump on board?

    Ive noticed that typically the theoretical value is usually lower than bid/ask because everyone is expecting upward movement and so the call options are usually "expensive", but today they are "cheap".

    Is that what you are saying?

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  61. @magisoo

    It really depends on the type of miner you are in. There are so many different possibilities that I will just name a few

    Producers have been getting killed in the latest downturn, and have just started to recover. Some recover faster than others, while some are more prone to linger until definite direction is found in the markets. Producers follow the price sentiment rather closely. The more mainstream the producer, the more likely it has strong correlation to the price of silver/gold (look at SLW compared to price of silver over the past month).

    However, I am in speculative junior miners which are either still exploring or in the process of mining and producing. Stocks such as "Rye Patch Gold" which has 1.2 million oz of gold measured and 2.7 million oz of gold inferred. It's market cap is a very low 44.5 million dollars, which has lots of room to profit. In this specific case, Rob Mcewen has vested interests in Rye Patch, which always signals good things... This stock has been up 50% in the past 2 weeks.

    -
    You should check out the following blog for junior miner information, as it is one of the best resources available for junior mining stocks.

    (has a fantastic community dedicated to help; be sure to check the first page out for the companies basic information that has been recommended)

    https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=68585

    If you get interested in all of this, you can check out my investment journal (which I am slow at updating lately) for my personal thoughts on these miners, as they may be a good option if you are looking to play the mining equity game (which I believe will be the market's launch pad to leverage against physical silver/gold in the physical shortage that I feel is coming upon us shortly).
    -
    http://thehardrightedge.com/2011/01/12/my-investment-journal/

    --

    Also, please google "Bill Downey," as he will help you time your entrance and exit points!
    -
    Hope this helps,

    Scott J

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  62. ** It is not a blog, instead the kitco forum community. I highly recommend becoming a member and asking questions, it is a very friendly community as well! **

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  63. eToro is the ultimate forex broker for newbie and full-time traders.

    ReplyDelete