Saturday, February 26, 2011

Weekend Update and a Message From Turd

First of all, here are your charts to ponder over the weekend.

The CRB made its seventh, consecutive higher weekly close yesterday. Again, your house may be going down in value and the banks may be insolvent but that doesn't mean a trip to the grocery store or the gas station is getting any less expensive.
Next, here's an 8-hour gold chart. Again, for neo-turdites, the time period I utilize for my charts is solely determined by the perspective I want the reader to grasp. In this case, I needed a chart that went just far enough back to include all of the action for this year to date.
And here's a 1-hour silver. I purposefully left off the white-out this time because Mrs. Ferguson took it back upstairs and I'm too lazy to go all the way back up there to retrieve it.
I was going to print off a bunch of USDX charts but Trader Dan already has so I figured...why waste time duplicating effort? Besides, his charts as much prettier than anything I could come up with.
Also, I had asked Dan to write a note that explained the hedge fund "ratio trade" that has been negatively impacting the miners for some time now. Thankfully, he obliged. If you own any mining stocks, I urge you to take some time to read this:

Lastly, please take a few moments to watch this: "The Turd Speaks".

Have a great weekend. More tomorrow evening, after the Globex open. TF


  1. Sorry for the repost, but this was near the bottom of the last thread and I wanted to make sure it wasn't missed


    I did a cursory review of Harvey's old posts concerning deliveries in the month of December 2010.

    It looks like there's a good correlation between the amount of contracts fulfilled per day in December and the price of spot in December based off SLV pricing. (In other words, it seems like large fulfillments of physical silver correlate with large increases in the SLV price while smaller to no fulfillments correlate with small increases to small decreases in SLV price.)

    Now, I don't know if it's statistically significant or not, but has anyone else done a more thorough analysis that they'd like to share? It seems like there might be something there.

    (Not saying that this necessarily plays into the COMEX not having the inventory they have, but... the correlation seems to imply something funny going on.)

  2. reposting ...

    JimmyTheHand ... thanks ... if you do the ratio math you actually gain ounces as I said ... the most I like about the play is I am always in metal ... anything can happen as we see all this turmoil ramping up so my thought process is if I don't need the FRN's stay in metal ... thought: what if I sold my metal (FRN) now I'm waiting for an entry point to repurchase and the EE shuts down the Banking system ... banks open a week later and silver is at $50 ... WTF is in order ... this all may sound dramatic but EE/JPM/US GOV ... think about it ... rather safe than sorry

  3. Love the clever SNL reference in this blog title

  4. Damn, now I can't go on with my silent theory that Silverfuturist is Turd Ferguson.

    Not only are you a good writer, you're good at talking on video and are just as entertaining in that format too. You should consider adding a Weekend Update(w/video)section to the site.

  5. Great video, great news.
    I can now die in peace, having seen a Turd wearing sunglasses and speaking- it was on my bucket list.

  6. Justin

    I'm very familiar with the Mayan prophecies. The interesting thing is that if we actually believe their prophecies, then there is actually no reason to bother buying metals or anything else. And I don't mean because they think the world is going to end. That is not it at all.

    They are actually celebrating because with all the transformations we will be in a new world, and that our consciousness will change. This aspect most of us can't even fathom.

    Either way, it's always best to be prepared for all possibilities.

  7. Wow Turd - Much younger than I expected. Now Norm is out of my head when you post your comments, Thank God, as I couldn't shake him off my head.

    I wish all the best for your new website and I am certain it will be a huge success.

  8. Thanks for the video message. Nice personal touch!

  9. Very human touch to all the craziness of late , well done .

  10. Turd,

    I greatly appreciate everything that you write here. Your work is invaluable.

    Having said that, I respectfully submit that your screenshots could be improved considerably if you were to learn how to use software for making and editing screenshots. I use both FastStone Capture and Fireshot, an extension for the Firefox web browser. They both allow you to take excellent screenshots, and even lightly to edit them. For further editing, you can easily import the image file (to wit, the screenshot) into, e.g., Irfan View or Adobe Photoshop, etc. Irfan view is free of cost and very useful.

    -- Paul D. Bain

  11. Turd, I like the blog and it was great to finally see you. You do an excellent job both in video and advice. Keep up the good work.

  12. Turd, you are a brave man. I would be afraid to reveal my face for fear of JP Morgue coming after me. Thanks for your commentary, Keep humble my man lest you become arrogant like the big banks.

  13. The Great and Powerful Turd has spoken. Keep it up Turd. I don't think the empire fears us at all. They feel they can create any reality they need to. Kinda like 'The Matrix'. Many more need to take the pill, eh? Way heavier hitters will have to help. I sincerely hope it has a happy ending for the Good Guys.


  14. Wow - I guess my dad was wrong. You can polish a Turd! Lookin' good, dude, looking good! Thanks for such a great site. Should be a wild ride.

  15. I for one was a bit disappointed, I was hoping to see you wearing the yellow hat,,,just kidding! The yellow hat may wind up in the Smithsonian one day, if there is a Smithsonian around after the walls come tumbling down.

    Thanks for all you do Turd, I have learned so much in such a short time here from you and all the other posters here. This place has become a 'must read' everyday for me.

  16. Nice vid Turd. THanks for coming out and showing yourself, that takes courge but it also adds to the trust level a lot. At first glance, you strike me as a balanced guy with a great sense of humour. And no I didn't think you were SilverFuturist. That guy seriously needs to cut back on the caffeine hehe. Thumbs Up! :)

  17. Wow You revealed yourself! .....And you have a great smile:) ....Better than Burt Reynolds. Who's he????

    Thanks for the video!...Looking forward to the new site!

  18. regarding TRE:

    Yes, they had the annual meeting this week and gave updates on their progress. Drilling continues at Msonga,now 80% complete for this phase. When complete, those figures will be included in the long-awaited 43-101 resource estimate for Kigosi, which is targeted for release late expect late fall. Sinclair also turned the Chairmanship over to Joseph Kahama, who had been President...he is responsible for obtaining the Buckreef property and continuing relations with the Chinese mining companies developing the Kabanga nickel deposit. Sinclair retains the title of CEO and President plans for succession and growth of TRE under Kahama are in place. TRE is now producing gold from the bulk sampling at Kigosi, but because the mining permitting process is at the 4th stage (out of 8), they cannot release figures nor sell the bullion now.The current producing gravity separation plant is a 20Ton/hour operating 20 hours a day, with 4 hours downtime for maintenance. They have two 100Ton/hour plants on order to be placed at Lunguya and Kigosi. Assuming an average grade from the surface gravels of 2grams/ton (very conservative!)..two 100T/hour plants running 20 hours a day will produce bullion worth $360,000 per day.Assume 300 days per year of full production and you get a value of $108 million of gold produced per year, just from two initial 100T plants. Within 3 years the new Buckreef property will be in production, with the mining license already in hand, and you can see the potential.

    The concern about operations in Tanzania was brought up on this site. The government of Tanzania is very interested in developing its mineral assets with the participation of outside mining companies. TRE has excellent relations with the government and has been at the forefront of social responsibility in construction of a hospital and a school in the areas it is working in. Also, the newest board member is the Mr. Abdulkarim Mruma, who is the CEO of the Geological Survey of Tanzania, and a Professor of Geology at the Univ. of Dar es Salaam. It certainly cannot hurt to have on the Board a member so associated with the Tanzanian government.

    Finally, Sinclair has stated it is his intention to initiate payment of dividends from earnings at about a 50% of net earnings to the dividend. The short interest of over 5 million shares will most likely be closing out his position before this event, or else be scrambling for more cash to make the payments he owes. I own the stock and look forward to the future of your own DD and decide if this company fits into your plan.

  19. Has anyone ever had the crazy thought that perhaps the Mayans were full of it with that calendar and either high on dope or just got lazy finishing it, but then somewhere in the inner circles of the elite they needed a target date for all their nefarious plans, and someone said, "meh, Dec 2012, why not?"

  20. Thanks for the blog Turd - really appreciate the time and effort you put into it.

  21. got 2 minutes? wondering why u r doing what ur doing? Read this essay by Alan Greenspan written in 1966.

    See u in the market on Monday.

  22. what's up with the sunglasses?

  23. Comment from Harvey's blog from a poster named "Eternal Student" discussing the March OI number of 4187:

    Yes. This is where all the confusion is on Turds' site. People aren't including the 10,000 or so which haven't stood or rolled. And, if I'm interpreting this and Harvey correctly, this is the 14,000 contracts that Harvey's talking about.

    I.e. it's 4187 which have committed to standing so far. People on the other blogs, are not counting the other 10,000 remaining.

    Harvey's estimate would then be that half of those 10,000 will stand, which is a very fair (and experienced) estimate.

    Please correct me if I'm wrong, Harvey. Or anyone else.

    And many thanks for all you do, again.

    I'm definitely out of my league trying to say whether this is accurate or not.

  24. That Greenspan article is too ironic; he sold out later in life, and Nixon sold the country out 4 years after the article was punlished.

  25. Another miner I'm watching that is worth a look is Golden Predator. Found them not too long ago and they are jumping right up in the short amount of time they've been around, +18% yesterday.


    Golden Predator

  26. Notice how the ee smackdown on Thursday just happened to coincide with the very bottom of the uptrend channel, yet on Friday silver was bought right back up to the bottom of the channel we've been riding in? Question for those who have first hand experience watching the spot market...does the price usually see a selloff come delivery month like we saw in january or was that a coincidence? I admit I haven't been paying attention long enough to have a feel for the market cycles as they relate to delivery commitments. Either way, we are riding the line between 2 levels of the uptrend channel right now so it will definately be an interesting, hard fought week. Thanks.

  27. this paragraph from Greenspan's 1966 essay foretells what will happen to our stock market...
    When business in the United States underwent a mild contraction in 1927, the Federal Reserve created more paper reserves in the hope of forestalling any possible bank reserve shortage. More disastrous, however, was the Federal Reserve's attempt to assist Great Britain who had been losing gold to us because the Bank of England refused to allow interest rates to rise when market forces dictated (it was politically unpalatable). The reasoning of the authorities involved was as follows: if the Federal Reserve pumped excessive paper reserves into American banks, interest rates in the United States would fall to a level comparable with those in Great Britain; this would act to stop Britain's gold loss and avoid the political embarrassment of having to raise interest rates. The "Fed" succeeded; it stopped the gold loss, but it nearly destroyed the economies of the world, in the process. The excess credit which the Fed pumped into the economy spilled over into the stock market, triggering a fantastic speculative boom. Belatedly, Federal Reserve officials attempted to sop up the excess reserves and finally succeeded in braking the boom. But it was too late: by 1929 the speculative imbalances had become so overwhelming that the attempt precipitated a sharp retrenching and a consequent demoralizing of business confidence. As a result, the American economy collapsed. Great Britain fared even worse, and rather than absorb the full consequences of her previous folly, she abandoned the gold standard completely in 1931, tearing asunder what remained of the fabric of confidence and inducing a world-wide series of bank failures. The world economies plunged into the Great Depression of the 1930's.

    See entire essay at

  28. Turd,

    This has been a great week of action here and on the other blogs recommended by other readers. I've seen more happen in a weeks time than in anytime in the past in JUST precious metals. Wow!

    Rock on, dude!


  29. Great vid Turd... as always, nice to put a face to the name (no big yellow hat though... whatup with that?). Periodic video updates are a great idea (within the new blog if possible)... right after a raid, so we can see the veins popping and smoke coming out of both ears... at least that's my usual (non verbal) reaction... lol!

    Thanks for the link to the Hedge / Miners story... new to me and really interesting, especially since I have most of my net worth in miners (in the Sprott fund though... don't know enough to pick stocks yet).

    Does the information in Dan's piece weaken your resolve regaring the miners (short / long term)... maybe you could slip a brief comment in a future post.

    Thanks for all you do!

  30. Turd, great video. Thanks for all you do. I bookmarked the video in case I have to match your picture with one on the back of a milk carton. Be safe!

  31. Anyone have recommendations on safes? I'm looking to get something smallish, nothing spectacular that I can move fairly easily if I change residency. Bonus points: something that Home Depot has so I can redeem my gift cards. Much thanks in advance.

  32. “One thing to realize about our fractional reserve banking system is that, like a child’s game of musical chairs, as long as the music is playing, there are no losers.”
    Andrew Gause, Monetary Historian

  33. Sound familiar?

    “I have never yet had anyone who could, through the use of logic and reason, justify the Federal Government borrowing the use of its own money... I believe the time will come when people will demand that this be changed. I believe the time will come in this country when they will actually blame you and me and everyone else connected with the Congress for sitting idly by and permitting such an idiotic system to continue.”
    Congressman Wright Patman

  34. Perhaps written after England exited the gold standard...

    “’The modern banking system manufactures money out of nothing. The process is perhaps the most astounding piece of sleight of hand that was ever invented.
    Banking was conceived in iniquity and born in sin. Bankers own the Earth. Take it away from them, but leave them the power to create money, and with the flick of the pen they will create enough money to buy it back again...
    Take this great power away from them and all great fortunes like mine will disappear, and they ought to disappear, for then this would be a better and happier world to live in. But if you want to continue to be slaves of the banks and pay the cost of your own slavery, then let bankers continue to create money and control credit’.”
    Sir Josiah Stamp Director, Bank of England 1928-1941
    (reputed to be the 2nd richest man in Britain at the time)
    Josiah Stamp

  35. “I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated Governments in the civilized world, no longer a Government by free opinion, no longer a Government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a Government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men.”

    Woodrow Wilson

  36. Turd,

    Why dont you own a foam cowboy hat.

    My world is crumbling!

  37. Hi,

    Been lurking here since you split from ZH, read every post and every comment. What can I say? Great advice, great community. I hope to be a contributer now I've revealed myself. (As have you, brave man)

    I'm in Ireland so the end of the experiment is closer to home than most of your followers. Our election today just reinforced my deepest fears. It's a split vote right v left by the look of it. Anyone but the last guy is the verdict.

    Next few weeks here will be epic. Short the euro is a safe bet on a fine gael success. (if they stick to their election promises)

    Anyway, thanks for your work, it's very much appreciated, the world needs more like you.



  38. “All of the perplexities, confusion, and distress in America arises, not from the defects of the Constitution or Confederation, not from want of honor or virtue, so much as from downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit, and circulation.”

    John Adams, Founding Father of the American Constitution

  39. “Whoever controls the volume of money in our country is absolute master of all industry and commerce...and when you realize that the entire system is very easily controlled, one way or another, by a few powerful men at the top, you will not have to be told how periods of inflation and depression originate.”

    James A. Garfield, assassinated president of the United States

  40. Hey Turd, your younger than I thought, I pictured a crotchy ol man , more like the coach.

    Nice video, But I have a question :)

  41. Wondering where the term "sheep" comes from in the videos?

    "For a long time I felt that FDR had developed many thoughts and ideas that were his own to benefit this country, the United States. But, he didn't. Most of his thoughts, his political ammunition, as it were, were carefully manufactured for him in advanced by the Council on Foreign Relations -- One World Money group. Brilliantly, with great gusto, like a fine piece of artillery, he exploded that prepared "ammunition" in the middle of an unsuspecting target, the American people, and thus paid off and returned his internationalist political support.
    "The UN is but a long--range, international banking apparatus clearly set up for financial and economic profit by a small group of powerful One--World revolutionaries, hungry for profit and power.
    "The depression was the calculated 'shearing' of the public by the World Money powers, triggered by the planned sudden shortage of supply of call money in the New York money market....The One World Government leaders and their ever close bankers have now acquired full control of the money and credit machinery of the U.S. via the creation of the privately owned Federal Reserve Bank."
    Curtis Dall, FDR's son-in-law as quoted in his book, My Exploited Father-in-Law

  42. Congratulations on the success of this site. That said I miss the calmer days of 20-40 comments/thread. This is still the coolest site I have ever visited even after your video. hehehe just kidding.

  43. Pick52 wrote:

    ...There is $150 oil left in the ground. There is probably $100 oil left in the ground...

    Exactly, plus the issue of production time frame is often ignored; Brazil just had a gigantic find off its coast, but it'll be years before they get the first drop out.

    Claims such as there's enough shale oil in the USA for 100 years, even if accurate, also often ignore EROI (Energy Return on Investment); i.e. it doesn't matter if there's enough shale oil in the USA for 1000 years if, like ethanol, it takes more than a gallon of oil worth of energy to get each gallon out.

    The Oil Drum is the place for oil and energy issues.

  44. Great Video Turd!! Thanks for all you do. You are one of a kind and we all appreciate you.

  45. Tyler wrote:
    ...I believe that any articles stating that Al-Qaeda teaming up with Iran to sabotage oil should be read as: CIA sabotages Iraqi oil production....

    I'll add to that: is an Israeli site, which many consider an unreliable source; so it's best to verify not just the spin they put on events (such as, regarding this morning's article claiming that not only "Al Queda", but also Iran, was responsible for the Iraqi refinery sabotage), but even insure that a particular event even happened at all (I linked to the site, but only to grab a phrase from the first sentence to paste into google to determine whether the event even happened before I spent any time reading about it).

  46. " You are one of a kind and we all appreciate you."
    So very true; like snowflakes, every Turd is unique and special.

  47. Jesse's take on Thursday raid; that is some good writing.

    The raid yesterday may have been a negotiation tactic. It certainly was a cheap and tawdry affair, obvious to all but the most willfully blind, and those in silent complicity. With the volume drying up in the markets making one's quota on the trade desks must be getting increasingly difficult.

    It reminded me of playing a game with the little girl, who cheats in the most clumsy and obvious ways, thinking herself very clever. And if she loses, she complains and pouts incessantly until you cover her losses. Rather like the American crony capitalists, I think.

  48. Nice quotes Turd"er". Here is an educating video that explains bankers historical desire to control nations. The true meaning behind 'The Wizard of Oz' also.


  49. Pat...Amen on Jesse's flair with the English, brother.

  50. Jack wrote:
    ...I would recommend, just some CYA, you get some ['junk silver' coins]... any coinage made before 1964 (Dollars, Halves, Quarters, and Dimes).

    I'd further recommend (again, for a SHTF scenario) - dimes specifically. Each dime is worth about $2.40 right now; so @ $50 silver, would be worth about $4. Even that value is getting a little high to be convenient for small purchases in a SHTF scenario.

    I'd further recommend the Mercury dime, rather than the newer Roosevelt, as all these are 90% silver, but the Roosevelts were debased of silver from 1965, so will not be as readily accepted (see, and if you go there, you might also note that the copper value of a friggin' penny is now nearly 3 cents, and the nickel/zinc value of a nickel is more than 7 cents — the way things are going, they might have to replace these with plastic versions).

  51. Quick 2 minute video I found on another site. It would be more funny if it weren't true.

    Wall Street Executive Air

  52. Your site is going to run into trolls (or as you put it... AGA's) the same way an airplane will run into turbulence or a sports car will run into mud puddles. It is just a hazard of the job.

    Don't let it discourage you from commenting or posting on things you feel strongly about!

    Absent that, maybe you should round up a few of the best comments on a weekly basis and do a "Turd's Mailbag" Q&A regular feature.

  53. Most vendors we have checked out do not let you choose mercury or roosevelt and sometimes not even the denomination. If they do let you choose the mercury often has a premium while roosevelt is spot or below. Is it really that critical to have mercury dimes as opposed to roosevelt? Just asking, in case we messed up...

  54. There is a world class rant against the EE on by Bob Chapman,the international forecaster. A must read for mythblasters. The man has been in PMs market for over 50yrs.

  55. Tyler said...
    ...based on the strange magnetic and temperature occurences in our solar system...

    If you're not already aware of it, you might enjoy this site that I discovered and added to my RSS feed just this week.

    It's primarily about weather and climate events (don't be misled by the name), but the poster is so prolific that it really influences one's perspective.

  56. Were u aware that the Constitution defines a "dollar" as as "371.25 [troy] grains of silver"? read this from a Harvard trained Constitutional scholar who has successfully argued 3 of 4 cases in front of the US Supreme Court. Note the "gold standard" is derived (derivative?!) standard and not a Constitutionally defined standard. Seems the Jefferson and Hamilton who could agree on almost nothing could agree on monetary policy!!
    This is a must read if u are to understand where we were as acountry, where we are, and where we will return.

  57. Anyone saw this:

    I think Max Kaiser reads Turd's blog. This episode is about Blythe Masters and he uses a lot of Turds expressions i think :).

  58. John,
    I'm with you on the Debka site. I trust that about as much as I trust Fox or CNN or any of the other mainstream media outlets here. My first instinct upon hearing about it late last night was some 3 letter agency involvement. Gut instinct.

    Thanks for that link in the other post. I think weather is going to play a big deal in agricultures in the coming months and years and that is where money needs to be along with PM's. I'm currently trying to find some small-cap bio-fuels or clean energy stocks to add as I see those getting more attention with the rising of oil.

  59. @TheColoredSky - I can tell you one thing for sure, don't get a Sentry safe, at least not one with a electronic combo. After about a year, it stops accepting the combination and you have to break into it. Luckily, being as this is such a common problem, there are several videos on youtube on how to break into a Sentry safe in less than 20 minutes...

  60. damijan,
    If we are on here reading this blog, I can guarantee you the top dogs have already seen it, especially with it being linked at ZH, silverfuturist, numerous other blogs...Turd's World is the real deal.

  61. Pablo said...
    Most vendors we have checked out do not let you choose mercury or roosevelt... Is it really that critical...

    (1) I quite clearly did not write that it was critical; rather I simply offered that it was my recommendation.

    (2) I value my time highly, and will probably value it even higher in a SHTF scenario — so I'm willing to pay a few bucks more (if necessary — I don't recall that I had to) for Mercury dimes bought specifically for small purchases during such a scenario rather than being inconvenienced while someone examines each of my Roosevelt dimes to insure they're 90% silver.

  62. @Turd"er" - You should check out "Pieces of Eight - The Constitutional Powers and Disabilities of the United States Constitution". It's an 1800 page two volume set by Edwin Vieira Jr. that covers every executive order, court case, and congressional act dealing with the definition on money since the constitution.

  63. thecoloredsky,

    I'm not sure if you have a basement where you live, but if so I would just do it right and get the honker gun safe. I got mine at Dick's sporting goods and it is a beast. It came down the stairs very easily. I will say it was so heavy that it will be sold with the house someday. Anyway, after all my ammo and guns i literally can not budge the thing. It's actually a joke among friends to try to move it. I would still like to bolt it, but I think it's completely unnecessary. I personally like the combo locks because it doesn't rely on technology like the keypad ones. I suppose it's a matter of preference though. Anyway, keep your eyes open and you'll find a good deal on one. Also, remember to keep the combo in a safe place. I actually destroyed mine paper copy of mine and wrote it down in one secure safe place.

  64. @Pick52 - loved your longer post earlier today, just got around to reading it....

  65. Pablo

    Granted, John was talking an extreme SHTF scenario, but I wouldn't sweat the Mercury-Roosevelt dime thing. But that's just me. I hate to pay more of a premium than I have to for anything.

    In my experience it seems like 90% silver halves, especially the Walking Liberties, and also Merc dimes, command the highest prices, and accordingly, some of the best buys I've made have been rolls of plain jane Roosevelt dimes or Washington quarters. It's all silver.

  66. @TGCopeland
    Thanks for the link on TWOO. BTW, Copeland is a recognised name in Delaware and lower PA.
    @Art Vandelay
    Thanks for the book idea, I was aware of it, but I think I will read the earlier 300 page edition as I trust in his scholarship and will spare myself the references and justifications of his rational that make up the 1800pgs.

    Thanks to both for keeping me real.

  67. And all those naysayers who said Americans couldn't keep it real when it came to the world-wide protests. No? Then what is this...

    Wisconsin Police Union Joins Protesters In Statehouse

    What's next-National Guard or Army to step in and enforce the law? It's a madhouse out there and it spread to other states today. Wait until more municipalities are forced to make cuts and reductions this year. There's at least 5 states that should already be much worse off than they currently are. California, New Jersey, Florida and a couple others. Gas above $4.00 and staying there for a decent amount of time is going to put a fork in whatever supposed economic recovery was taking place.

    No lie, verification word: failsy

  68. Junior miner fans

    Just wanted to post this link that I found in my bookmarks. Honestly can't remember where it came from. Maybe from just surfing around, maybe from another here in Turd's World. If so, thanks. Seems like it has some good mining stock info.

  69. Wow, nice link Eric. Definitely going to look in to some of those.

  70. Hi Turd enjoyed the video.Knew I had seen that face before then it came back,saw you on the interpol site wanted for rousing the populace to aquire real wealth instead of official IOU,s,telling the truth about the EE instead of the official love children,old people,charities,etc,having the audacity to say trolls could be banksters in disguise,etc, the usual stuff.Looking forward to the new site and wish you all the best mate.Bob.

  71. @thecoloredsky

    Look into these safes:
    Liberty has some real nice products in this range at reasonable prices.

    If you're really on a budget look into this for $300:
    Thinner steel, someone could get an axe through this one if they tried but it's floor boltable and heavy enough not to walk away.

    Also keep an eye on Lowes and Home Depot they tend to run sales on safes every 3-4 months.

  72. @ Art and Patrick

    Thanks for the recommendations!

  73. hi turd, great video. great blog, i hit it multiple times per day. nice to be able to put a face and a voice to the updates now. keep up the excellent work.

  74. Eric,
    I wrote down a bunch of your oil plays the other day. They are now on my watch list. I want to get in to some oil but don't have the $ right now. In looking all of yours over today I came across another one on my list that I thought you might be interested in doing some DD on. I think you said you mainly do Canadian plays and this one is definitely not in the same league as the ones you currently have..BUT.. this one does seem to have potential.

    I hope it checks out for some of you.. ..if not.. tell me where I'm going wrong with it. I hopefully will buy in soon.

    Pyramid Oil (PDO)

  75. Looking forward to the new site--especially a real-time chat area.

    Provident lets you buy Mercury dimes for a small premium.

  76. Re: Safes
    I mulled over buying one from a local locksmith for awhile before getting the light bulb on and calling my PM dealer for advice. They told me they were buying Ft.Knox gun safes, fire and waterproof...mine cost as much as the cheesy, non-fireproof safe the local locksmith was pushing on me.

    They gave me the name of their local safe dealer and I proceeded from there...Wonderful safe

  77. Don't get SMACK without silver in March 2011. Sell everything you can to get silver in March 2011 - If you got silver, the locomotive will not destroy you, but carry you for the very long ride. All Aboard. March through May 2011 will go down in history as the most significant single period in silver's history. Get your family and close friends to get silver. Just buying 5 oz will make a big different in their lives.

  78. @ thecoloredsky

    700 lbs and get a mechanical lock (call Rhino to get it over electronic) for $999 at costco

    B6030EL Heavy Duty Safe
    Item # 399366


  79. John

    Thanks for the weather link. I do follow happenings pretty closely but have not been to that website before.

    This may be a dumb question, but if pennies are now worth 3 cents, is there anywhere you can actually trade them in? I'm guessing that maybe they are not fit for proper industrial use and thus wouldn't actually get 3 cents.

    Well, it's not going to be boring

  80. I would like to add that the weather changes fit in so nicely with the Mayan belief of a change in human consciousness.

    If we view earth as an entity and not as an inanimate rock, it would make sense that consciousness changes are accompanied by physical ones.

    And we're along for the ride.

  81. Tyler, John

    Go to I think you'll find pennies are made of zinc unless they are pre-1964. Nickels are made mostly of copper, however, and are currently worth around 7 cent.

  82. how many OZs are you buying? 100s or 1000s?

  83. Here's a link to an interesting find of Silver stash which appeared in 'The Hindu' one of India's national newspapers.

    I have been a physical silver bull since Nov 2008. Regarding investing in mining shares I am feeling a bit lonely as we hardly have any pure silver plays in the Indian stock market.

  84. With pennies, 1982 and earlier are copper. No idea where they can be exchanged, I just keep them when I find them. Quarters and dimes you want 1964 and earlier for silver content and they are hard to find in regular change.

  85. Jim Sinclair just sent this out ...

    Dear Friends,

    Between now and Monday, February 28th be prepared for panicked short sellers who cannot make delivery to try every trick in the book to buy back their short positions.

    The following is information from Dr. Jim Decosta:

    Here is the URL:

    Quote: There's 3 new laws gaining attention in the NSS market reform arena: FINRA 4320 goes into effect on 2/28/11. It mandates 13 day buy-ins for open delivery failures FINALLY applying to shares of non-reporting corporations. FINRA 2010-043, also starting on 2/28/11 reinstates the "short sale exempt" (SSE) marking requirements for trade reporting and the OATS system. Those MMs accessing the bona fide MM exemption from executing pre-borrows or "locates" before admittedly naked short sales must now FORMALLY acknowledge the accessing of that universally-abused exemption. Being that these trades are theoretically being made to "inject liquidity" then the excuse to hide the related trade data from the public's eyes goes out the window. You can't have it both ways and claim the bona fide MM exemption and later claim that the related trade data needs to be kept secret because it might reveal a "proprietary trading strategy".

    Truly bona fide MMs that are able to legally access that universally-abused exemption cover their naked short position on the next downtick after their short sale when buy side liquidity is in need of being ejected as share prices fall. The 3rd new rule which is in effect now states that the offers and bids that MMs post must be of approximately the same size. No longer can the offers be of 1 million shares and the offsetting bid good for the minimum 5,000 shares.

    The verbiage in 4320 is especially well done as it FINALLY puts the clearing firms that aid and abet this crime wave on the spot. With the FFETF, which is made up of 25 different agencies, now on the scene the transparency has increased markedly. You can imagine how critical the lack of transparency is to a crime involving selling nonexistent securities and then refusing to ever deliver that which you sold AFTER being allowed access to the funds of the investor being defrauded.

    Here are the links to the rules SR-FINRA-2010-028 and SR-FINRA-2010-043:

    Notice the part I marked in bold in the quote above:
    "FINRA 4320 goes into effect on 2/28/11. It mandates 13 day buy-ins for open delivery failures FINALLY applying to shares of non-reporting corporations."

  86. Turd,

    Good video. You look almost exactly as I pictured you - a 30 to 40 something happily married turdite (is this a new word??? Call Websters) with a "missus" and two junior turds. Your blog and these posts are helping me to secure a safer, more secure future for my "missus" and my turds too.

    God bless you and your family. Keep up the great work.

    Your brother in arms (toilet bowl brush).


  87. Looking through all my miner charts, it looks to me that next week there are going to be some major moves, most likely up, since 'the trend is your friend in this bull'. 20 day moving averages crossing over 40 day, chart patterns finishing off inverted head and shoulder or cup/handle patterns, On Balance Volumes showing channeling moves up,or quick pushes down by the shorts just before the buyback. Looks very interesting indeed! Anyone else thinking this could be a huge move? I guess you could use the argument that we're overbought at this juncture but, the setups look amazing right now IMO.
    Good luck this week!

  88. Thank you Art Vandelay. I have plenty more to say but I wont say it til later

  89. Turd, great to see you in person after so long, I think your thoughts for the new site are bang on. And while a huge 1st amendment guy, please do continue to monitor the comments judiciously.

    I've been following for awhile, great info source. Owner Dennis Boyko is very knowledgeable guy and provides lots of data on a very complete list of miners. Was sorry to hear you have "Casino" burn :-)

    Golden Predator is a big fave of mine. I bought it in the .50s. Check out CEO Bill Sheriff, brilliant guy. I also love Tarsis (TARSF), another prospect generator in the Yukon whose pps is about to detonate.

  90. I think I'm going to begin to layer in some short positions in GDX and GLD to hedge my longs. I am feeling too bullish and don't like the warning inherent in the feeling. The gold community seems to have that Walter Huston breakout fever which can be lethal everytime. The COT report shows large short positions being held by the banksters which may or may not mean much but these guys cover the entire price grid and they are ready for anything. I think I want to be ready for either direction and not swear allegiance to a second battle at Thermopalye should that occur. Good night all.

  91. ewc58, Thanks for sharing all your stock picks. I did do a DD and all your suggestions are fantastic.
    Just thought giving a shout out to you:).

  92. Ginger
    Thanks, I'll check it out.

    I'm with you. I laid in a little extra to the miners friday before the close.

    Glad to see we are still pals. Was worried I had gone over the top. Was well into cocktail hour at the time. Good luck with WRN, maybe now is the time. Gold and copper are both quadruple in price since I owned Pacific Sentinel.

    I kinda like that little Walter Huston jig myself. I'm in. All the way in.

  93. ewc58, Ginger, or anybody

    Know anything about Spanish Mountain Gold? It caught my eye on that site. Gonna look further at that one.

  94. ginger
    You sure like the small fry don't you. I guess in my oils I like a bit more size than PDO. On the upside, if they are barely making money at $80 oil you should get plenty of leverage to oil prices going still higher. Nice pop here lately and should be good for more.

    Take a look at Berry Petroleum. BRY. More of an "in-between" size for an oil company. Around $2B market cap. Actually makes money, and has been all along. Interesting history. Clarence Berry went to the Klondike Gold Rush, struck it rich, then went to California and struck it rich again in oil. Magic touch I guess.

    I'm a sucker for anything about the Klondike.

  95. Did you guys see the season ending show on "Gold Rush" on Discovery Channel? Looks like for next season they are getting pushed off their claim in Alaska, and are going to head for the Klondike to give it a go.

  96. ewc58
    Golden Predator looks pretty interesting. Brewery Creek rings a bell with me from somewhere. Can't quite place it.

  97. id,

    concening a possible correlation of Comex deliveries with SLV, I would be really interested to see a couple of plots.

    We know the amount of silver in the Comex 'registered' category, but we do not know how much the individual dealers hold and who is short and will be assigned to deliver on the contracts.

    If the short is an SLV authorized participant, they could
    * buy SLV in the open market
    * this would make SLV trade at a premium for a while
    * redeem a basket (50000 shares?), cancel the shares and take the silver
    * deliver this silver to the long

    So the symptoms would be
    * reduction of silver in SLV
    * SLV trades at a premium
    * deposits into 'registered' category at the same time as delivery is made


  98. Finally, here are my $0.02 on the fact that it is 'only' 4187 contracts (preliminary number).

    This is about 20 million oz and about half the inventory of the registered category. This is a siginificant amount of metal. It is about the same amount of silver as is in Sprott's Physical Silver Trust. He claims it took him more than 2 months to get it, and people estimate that it raised the silver price by a couple of dollars back in fall 2010.

    What else do you want?


  99. Hey TF

    I'm a colorectal nurse & having now seen you in person you're the best looking Turd I've ever seen!

    Love your insight & wit and this has become my second place to visit every day (after checking the metals prices in UK £)

    Looking forward to visiting your new playground!


  100. Re: JW

    I've been trading pm's for 30+ years. The answer to your question is, Yes more often than not the metals mkts get pressure coming into first notice day. The same seems to be true for Option expirations. And, for some reason the end of the month is reason to be cautious.

  101. Stagflation Is Coming; Time to Accumulate Gold

  102. Seems Silver is going mainstream? well perhaps outside the USA it is....

  103. Turd,
    Wow, what a surprise to see you! I guess we are are about the same age - I had imagined you to be older.
    Keep up the good work mate! We all appreciate it and I, for one, feel very much at home here.

  104. Just an thought this morning ( 2nd post ever altho I should more ) :
    Regardless of what the OI will show my thinking is that it will be understated . Reason being the EE will not want to show " their hand " in regards to a possible default or how much metal they have to deliver until as late in March as it possible. Have you noticed in past months how the # of oz's rise above the original OI amount? Some of course is due to purchases during the month but I think some ( especially this coming March ) is due to CRIMEX holding back the " real # " until the month progresses?? Thoughts all -

  105. There seems to be real disagreement on an accurate Open Interest number in March 11 futures. Silvergoldsilver says on his blog this morning that "We still have 14, 259 contracts standing." He goes on to pointedly declare that some people are reading the report wrong who say it is only 4187.

    I would love to hear everyone's predictions with reasons on whether silver will continue in a bullish channel this week, or whether we see a sharp "correction" like the first week in Jan. Will the short covering I hear is coming on Monday really materialize? Or will longs bail out due to low OI numbers? Or is 14259 accurate and large enough to break the Comex and the longs will stand?

  106. Forgot to mention that it was nice to put a face with the name. So much appreciate this site , your critical updates and charts and the incredible info to be learned from this site. Looking forward to the new site and when you get down to crunch time let us know so the community can not let the Turd " go hungry ".
    ( Time to help out and feed the Turd ).

  107. Dr. Jerome, the 4,000 number is just a preliminary number. I always wait for Harveys numbers because he quotes the finalized numbers. Those should come out on Monday and then Mondays numbers should be available on Tuesday, etc...

    The forklifts are going to be running like crazy at the deathstar tomorrow!

    I think that the Asian market will go sidewise or slightly up, then a major attack during the day from Blythe. Then maybe they cover some shorts after the attack? That way the price is lower... Hmmm, is it possible that they could cause a self induce FUBM of their own by attacking in the morning and then short covering later? I don't trade so I am weak in this area, but I am picking up a lot of stuff from all of you so thank all of you for that!

  108. I'd still hit it.. with a bat.

    (Double entendre intended)

  109. Thank you Mr Hand.

    Turd, I can hardly wait for your new site. Keep up the great work. Your candor and personality (including handwriting on the charts) make this a special site.

  110. I have a problem relating to metals investing. Namely, my fiat currency of reference is the Euro, so in addition to understanding how the price of silver is developing in Dollars, I need to estimate how the exchange rate will develop in order to maximize conversion of fiat into silver.

    The Irish voted on Friday, and it looks like the Fianna Fail party, who had been in power up to now, has been completely routed. The winning Fine Gael party has promised to renegotiate the terms of the Irish bailout, and has even talked about dropping out of the Euro and returning to the Punt, if need be (see article at Zerohedge).

    In addition, in Gemany the ruling CDU (Christian Democratic Party) took a beating Hamburg recently, and there are state parliament elections in the states of Baden-W├╝rttemberg, Sachsen-Anhalt, and Rheinland-Pfalz. It seems likely that the CDU will suffer losses in those elections as well (my personal judgement).

    Also, there will be EU meetings on 11 March and at the end of March, and I would be almost willing to bet that there will be dramatic news on refinancing Greek and maybe Portuguese debt coming out of those meetings.

    So my thinking is that during March, the Euro is likely to fall against the Dollar due to the Euro crisis and due to a changing political landscape.

    Anyone else in this boat? Any more ideas?

  111. Ohhh ... forgot an important point - the state elections in Germany are also in March.

  112. @TGCopeland
    Wow. Powerful video. I sent it to my brother who is Constitutional Scholar with a degree in US History from Princeton and a JD from Vanderbilt to get his feedback. Also, I sent it to a prep school classmate who is a managing director at Deutsche Bank and also to a friend with a JD and a degree in Macro Economics from U of Maryland. Finally, I forwarded to my business prof advisor from college. I am waiting for their feedback to help me form an opinion.
    Thanks for keeping me real.

  113. Isn't it just reasonable to assume that if the Irish leave the Euro, a stronger Euro would result? Germany to me is the wildcard.

  114. snick

    I'm a dollar-centric investor, but I just don't really see the difference if one is in euroland. Dollar is headed down, relative to real things. Euro is headed down relative to real things. It's a horserace to the bottom. Unless you are worried about short term trades, don't sweat the euro-dollar exchange. I know I don't. If euro structure throws some roadblock up against it being debased fast enough, your euro will be replaced by a punt or a drachma, etc. depending on your location. And then those currencies will resume their fall against real things.

    Forget about the dollar. Just watch the price of gold in Euros. That will tell you everything you need to know.

  115. Germany has tried once recently to create "north euro", with Holland, France, Findland, Austria, Luxembourg, and Denmark, Poland and Czech (currently outside EU Zone). These countries have not so big problem with balancing their budgetes. The rest? Forget about the rest. For Germany they should be left for their own.

    We will see what will be the silver future soon.

  116. SoccerDad, Hard to say ... on the one hand, if Ireland (and maybe Greece and Portugal) were just to leave the Euro, it would seem like the Euro would strengthen. On the other hand, German and French banks hold a lot of debt from those countries. What currency would the debt be paid back in? Would the banks (including the ECB) take a hair cut on the loans? I think many of the problems that have been swept under the rug so far would flare up, and the whole thing might end up being not so positive for the Euro.

    I mean, those problems are there already, so it wouldn't be anything new ...

  117. Eric, You're probably right that I should just look at the silver / gold prices in Euro, but I also hold some mining shares, and it really makes me ill when I make an investment that goes up in Dollars but less so, or potentially doesn't do anything in Euros. I've had that happen, and it really irritates me. So I try to guess what the Euro will do, and sometimes delay buying or selling something on the basis of my guess.

  118. Dear Turd"er",

    Can I give you my response as well? I have no college.. I am a layman.

    I watched the video that TGcopeland link provide us.

    I have skid marks (scooter marks ) in my boxers.

  119. You are right about that I think SoccerDad. I remember reading an article some where within the last few weeks that it is in Germanys interest to have a strong Euro because they are a leading exporter across the pond and the article went as far to say that Merkel may even attempt to push several of the weaker Euro members out from using the Euro.

    Ireland now has to deal with the ECB and the IMF. I am not certain what that will mean though for Ireland. I guess they could force the central banks there to default or maybe even establish a new banking system and cut out the central bank all together (which would be their best bet IMHO).

    What I don't get is how the IMF holds countries to the deal they work out. The IMF does not have any way of preventing a country from reneging on the loan do they?

    Snick I think you are correct that the next shoe to drop regarding the Euro will be Portugal. Here is an article you may find interesting from The Wall Street Journal:

    You mention the meeting the article points out, so you may have already read it but thought I would include it anyways :)

  120. snick

    So, yes those are short term considerations, where it's valid to worry about the exchange rate. But anything long term, forget about it.

    Why does Turd watch the USDollar Index? Because sometimes it matters for short term considerations. But for long term? NO. Dollars, euros, pounds, yen all heading lower against things that matter.

  121. For all those still debating over the OI numbers try this perspective.

    If the COMEX goes bust the game is over for us little guys, no more cheap physical, no more paper leverage, likely incoming devaluation.

    We do not want the COMEX to bust.

    Bankers have been around for 5000years, this is a really old game if power they play. The lack of generational knowledge and a deliberate avoidance of the instruction of economic HISTORY has allowed the perpetuation of this status quo.

    I do not expect this to change.

    Although the Internet with it's flattening of informational asymmetry has the potential to finally quash this ignorance, I'm not holding my breath.

    Know the game and play it, rather than expect a dramatic victory.

    The end of the status quo will arrive in a backroom deal between nations and depending on the govt in your jurisdiction be prepared for forfeiture of your PMs.

    Govts are already stealing via inflation, when that game is up why do should I expect them to play fair?

  122. JimmyTheHand,

    I think it is more in Germany's interest to have a WEAK Euro, because it makes German exports cheaper. That's why Merkel is fighting to keep all of the PIIGS countries in the Euro. Naturally, the PIIGS countries bear the costs in the form on high interest rates and slow growth.

  123. Here's a little morning reading for the group. Nothing earth shattering, just a little cheerleading and sound advice on the silver trade.

  124. Regarding the OI numbers.

    When OI expands more buyers AND sellers have entered the fray. Depending on whether price is increasing or decreasing we can infer a number of scenarios.

    If price increases sharply with expanding OI it suggests at the very least some shorts are confident of lower future prices. If those shorts are weak - small specs, there is the potential for a short squeeze. If they are the large commercials, well let's just say they seldom lose the war, maybe the occasional battle.

    Personally, I'd be rooting fr a situation where price rises but the shorts are supplied by the small specs with large comms reducing their exposure.

    This implies large comms are neither hedging nor shorting while small specs are waiting to get squeezed.

    How much OI standing for first day while important is missing the forest for the trees.

    We want the fundamentals to be strong over a long term not a one time spike and the end of our current system.

  125. Eric,
    Yeah.. I thought you'd love that tiny lil oil company :] But seems they have good potential. Yours are all on my DD list the latest one you threw out....Berry Petroleum. Yes..I have to go for the smaller guys right now just because of the buy in prices being so much more affordable. More important than ever that I make sound decisions on these small and micro caps because you can really get taken to the cleaners but I also think that if you choose well, the upside can be better than some of the more establised producers.....both in metals and most other commodities!

    Spanish Mtn. I will be looking at as well. The goldminerspulse site you referenced looks terrific. Adding that to my reading list.

    I really appreciate the picks you mention as well and all your insight.


  126. Ging

    I looked at Spanish Mountain a little more this morning. I gotta pass. Indian tribes again, same as with CZN. There's a reason why all those ounces are so cheap. This could (and has so far) take years to get more toward development. It's OK as a lottery ticket, that will fly with a higher Au price (kind of like WRN) but doesn't pass muster with me as one that has some immediate catalyst that will cause it to go up even with a flat gold price.

    Yeah, the frame of reference between gold miners and oil company is so different. A $2 billion market cap company is pretty big for a gold miner, pretty small for an oil company.

    As far as potential on PDO. As long as you keep straight in your mind what kind of potential you are talking about, you will be fine. Potential as a long term seriously profitable company, not really. Potential as something that will get a serious pop in the stock price on MidEast unrest, most definitely.

    On the little ones, as long as you are emotionally able to see a pop in the stock price and sell it immediately and realize those gains, then good for you.

    For me, it's back to "know thyself". I tend to get emotionally involved. Hard for me to part with a winner, therefore I need to make some different choices going in than some other investors.

  127. This whole discussion reminds me of a parable I learned from Doug Casey years ago.

    An investor sees a hot pick in sardines and buys the stock. It doesn't work out quite the way he hoped. He calls his broker and complains. The broker says "Oh, you bought the TRADING SARDINES, not the EATING SARDINES!

    Here's the difference. EATING SARDINES are the ones with ongoing earnings, maybe dividends, the ones you view as a potential legacy buy that you will pass on to your kids and they will bless your name forever more. EATING SARDINES will feed your family on an ongoing basis.

    TRADING SARDINES are the ones where if you are blessed with a gain you better sell it right quick and pocket that gain, because it may not last.

    I'm not saying one is better than the other. I'm just saying anytime you buy one of these things you had better have a clear picture in your mind as to whether this one is an EATING SARDINE or a TRADING SARDINE. If you keep it straight, you'll do fine. If you get confused as to which is which, you are setting yourself up for heartbreak.

  128. I set up a free text/audio/video discussion room if anybody wants to chat. It is:

  129. @ c6eef5b4-3c40-11e0-9015-000bcdcb471e

    Thank you for the shout out mate, very kind. Here's another one: Timberline Resources (TLR). I own it and have big expectations for returns in '11.

    @ Eric: no sweat, you and me are Turd Town buds. I'm an Italian American born in the Bronx, so actually I thought you were being pretty nice :-0) I don't own WRN, was just seeing what anyone knew. They do seem to have righted the ship. I'll keep and eye on them, quite a Cu resource.

    Spanish Mountain- - aware but took a pass on 'em.

    @ Ginger, I did buy some Canadian Zinc on your reco, liked what I saw a lot in my own DD. Thanks for that one.

  130. Another Doug Caseyism:

    "When a strong wind blows, even the turkeys fly!"

    Mostly, I like to buy stocks that won't necessarily require a strong wind. But will benefit in case one comes along. I think there is wind in the forecast.


  132. Enjoy your blog site and like your commitment and vision for a community voice.

    Some thoughts on how we manage our junior miner portfolio. Its a bit of art and science mixed with a large helping of humble pie. It's composition is influenced from the ideas of Casey Research, Jim Sinclair, Dan Norcini and others. Cannot overestimate the value of the listening to the wise persons in the mining arena and to take the time necessary to be well informed. Once we select the companies for the portfolio, to manage positions we use a trailing stop limit approach to lock in gains. Trailing stops is old hat for many, but we use trailing stops primarily not as an exit strategy to take profits, but as a trigger to re-invest. We set the trailing stop limit orders at around 15-20% that is our comfort level. The only challenge is to reach that level. We sometimes create multiple stop limit orders for a particular stock - becoming competent with Excel is a big help. Oftentimes we have been stopped out and then maybe re-enter a position of the same holding or add new stocks, based on timing and fundamental considerations, although the portfolio is fairly stable - about 30 holdings. This approach does increase the commission fees, but they are very small compared to locking in profits. For some stocks such as Impact Silver, San Gold, Romarco, Tanzanian Royalty, we have held continuously for almost 2 years – taking some profit along the way to populate| our portfolio, others are more recent additions such as Rye Patch, Richfield Ventures, and Extorre.

    Dan Norcini's Feb 26 post, thanks to the Turd's encouragement, is important for those investing in Junior Miners. The GLD and SLV RFT have taken a lot of money off the table that would be going into the mining stocks, especially the Juniors. So the dramatic several hundred percent increases are more rare, but healthy gains are still quite possible. We do venture into other investment areas from, accumulating physical bullion, owning the Tocqueville Gold Fund and to buying GLD and SLV options, again using trailing stops here. Metal investment, has moved from a dabble to an essential to our long term survival.
    Enjoy, good success and be prepared for some crazy times ahead.

    Stan and Walker

  133. Damn Turd....super excited for the new site! Between your site, KWN, Trader Dan, and some of the excellent newsletter writers; the ability to gather real time information regarding resource investing, trading and speculating is unmatched in history. Well, for the common man anyway.

  134. This comment has been removed by the author.

  135. Eric said, "On the little ones, as long as you are emotionally able to see a pop in the stock price and sell it immediately and realize those gains, then good for you."

    That makes a lot of sense to me and I need to get better at locking in profits as I go. I tend to hold for the long term but I'm realizing that might not be the best strategy.

    I found StanR's post above helpful on that very topic. Think i'll try to utilize this better going forward. Thanks so much for all the (VERY) helpful posts everyone.

    Those Caseyisms make alot of sense too! I think I mostly invest in the Trading Sardines (lol) so I need to become more adept at trading! DUH!

    crossing my fingers and toes on CZN. We should know more about the decisions of the environmental impact board for all permits going in to March so it could be a big month (or not) ..for that play. GO CZN!

    I have to thank you for throwing out there yesterday the info about Chris Rowe. I am finding his options trading information VERY easy to read, follow and understand. Wow..thanks so much!

  136. Regarding Norcini's observation of big players being long physical and short mining players. Is that why the bigger mining stock prices have under performed, making great returns, while the juniors stock prices, who do not earn yet, are jumping?

  137. Ginger and ewc58

    On CZN I'm cheering for you guys, but only as a spectator from the cheap seats. GO CZN!

    As long as you reciprocate and cheer for me on Avino Silver & Gold. GO ASM!

  138. Another Doug Casey on junior miners:

    "You can't kiss ALL the girls, nor should you try"

  139. murphy

    Yeah, I think so. The Barricks, Newmonts, etc have been stinko. Easier for the big boyz to short in size.

  140. Pick

    Excellent. I had forgotten that one.

  141. Eric

    I'm not even refering to those that big. How about the GG,EGO,MFN's of the world. Their earnings are outstanding. If they were anything other than miners their prices would be 3x.

  142. murph

    Oh, most definately.

    I worry about how to play the unwind of that trade. When the hedgies unwind, that means short gold and long those big miners. Good for those miners, but are they really going to go anywhere in the face of a big short play in bullion? Seems like a no win situation for us.

    I'm guessing juniors fall a lot, majors fall less, if that unwind happens. I'm not really happy either way.

  143. I'm guessing that QE, POMO, etc is what's financing those hedge fund trades. And our article of faith here in Turd Town is that QE and POMO ain't never gonna stop.

    Still, makes me feel like I'm holding a burning match sometimes.

  144. Snick I think you are 100% right about that. I looked up the last article I had read regarding Merkel and it was she that said maybe Germany should just leave the Euro. Like the others mentioned, the value of all fiat is headed down and we are all headed for hard times it seems. I don't trade stocks or anything like that myself, I'm just a long term holder of physical silver.

    Thanks for that video tgcopeland.


  146. Eric,
    Avino looks GREAT. Got that one in my watch as well and wishing I had bought in a while back. "/ ..But hoping for the very best there for you. Looks like it is going to be a winner. ..Heck, it already is if you bought in mid-2010 or in the Fall of last year.

    I do get nervous thinking about what an overall downturn in the regular stock market will mean for the juniors. Isn't it feasible to think that when the shtf that there will be some sort of decoupling of the miners from the regular stock market? I'm thinking maybe an initial downturn with a surge back to free market prices in all commodities once the dust settles from a currency crisis..oil crisis..etc. ...Am I way off base here?

  147. Copeland -

    Thanks for the video link. It seems that his thesis is a bit off though, right? I'm definitely no expert on monetary theory, but creating fiat by the government has all the same perils as by a central bank, save the interest. I kept waiting for him to talk about freegold (FOFOA), but he kept blasting gold and hard money. Too much cherry picking of quotes, data, etc. - arguing for Lincoln as a lover of freedom? He ordered union troops to fire on citizens protesting. His argument for the greenback leaves out the part where most people wouldn't accept it as currency without the force of government.

    Anyways, I appreciate the video as it made me re-think issues I had decided on years ago. Any comments/rebuttals welcomed.

  148. Eric, I'm pulling for ya bigtime with Avino and also wish I'd bought it earlier. But I did nail Aurcana (AUNFF) in the low .60s at the end of the January rout and that pick up has made me feel pretty good so far. I really like them, the reopening of the Shafter Ag mine in TX will provide good news flow, and if the expected production follows it will drive the shares much higher. I think Shafter has got the goods.

  149. qussl3 said... "If the COMEX goes bust the game is over for us little guys, no more cheap physical, no more paper leverage, likely incoming devaluation.We do not want the COMEX to bust."

    -- imo, you don't get the big picture. do you know that every dollar circulated is a debt receipt backed by a dollar in the bond/note/tbill US gov give to Fed, which demands 1% - 5% interest that US tax payers have to pay ? By having the lawfully right to issue currency via taking bonds/notes from US gov, Fed and it's private owners, domestic and international bankers can take the huge interest from US gov debt for ever and for free, and more importantly, by controlling the valve of the blood of economy, the liquidity, Fed and it's owners can precisely create/time economy ups and downs, collect huge wealth in an unfair fashion and use the wealth to control the whole country. Does that sound a big deal to you? Does that sound something bigger than your small advantage of buying silver at $30 cause you are 10% smarter than your neighbors ? When Fed is the dad of this great "Free and Independent" country, Don't ask for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for thee.

  150. @Eric QE2w/POMO will carry on until at least June. The Fed didn't actually say he will stop then. What may bring the stock markets down, regardless of the Fed running the printing presses into overdrive, is Oil reaching $140+. Somewhere around there, another global downturn is in the cards, likely with accelerated revolutions, because if @$100 Oil we see massive food inflation, then just watch what happens at $140+ Oil.

    Unlike PMs, oil can't go up for ~10+ years in a row. It can peak to a certain level, and then it causes a recession, which depletes demand and then eventually the price drops back down. Then with cheaper oil, the economy ramps back up, and eventually you get another peak, and another recession. This is likely to be the pattern for the next 2-4 years, although each new low, is likely going to be higher than the previous low, due to peak oil theory.


    So if you are invested in miners, stock market etc, keep your eye on Oil!

    Also, I strongly recommend everyone on here watch this 4 minute video 2 or 3 times. This is a summary of the interaction between broader markets, oil & recessions between 2011 and 2020. I urge you to pay close attention because this is posted by These guys predicted:
    1. Dot COM Crash
    2. No Y2K disaster
    3. Post .COM crash bear market (before it happened)
    4. Gold Price bottom in 2001
    5. Housing bubble (way before it happeneD)
    6. 2008 Recession
    7. Commercial Real estate crash
    8. March 2009 market bottom
    9. Cheap Peak Oil (up and coming).

    In other words, every single major market event was foreseen by So pay attention to this video, these guys know their macro-economics!

    The Next Ten Years: 3 Drivers of Political Economy

  151. Ginger/ewc

    Wish we had all bought all of these a year ago. But it ain't about where they've been, it's about where they're going.

    We keep thinking that would be the case. But if it were to happen it would be the first time in history, sad to say. In practice, that initial downturn is usually sufficient to shake us all out of our positions, enough so that we miss out on most of the rebound. The part about "when the dust settles" that you refer to will take longer than we think, and pretty much require the current global currency regimes to be reduced to a smoking ruin. Plenty of chances for our emotions of fear and greed to get us whipsawed and eaten alive in the market even if we are right about the big picture.

    Sorry to be such a debbie downer on this one.

    The scenario you are thinking of is the one where physical metals that just sit there and collect dust will probably serve us better than all these little miners.

  152. SilverSurfer you are spot on.

  153. Here's itulip's OIL prediction chart till 2014.


    Note they foresaw the 2011 price spike based on fundamentals alone (they did not forsee Arabic revolts). This chart BTW, was posted Nov 2009 in their:

    Peak Cheap Oil Update - Part 1

    The chart I provided above is from Part 2 for subscribers only, but I thought I'd share it here as it is so critical to everything that is going on.


  154. Ginger/ewc

    My case for Avino goes basically like this:

    1) long term management, no quick pump and dump
    2) relatively few shares outstanding
    3) mill and infrastructure in place
    4) currently bulk sampling to fine tune recovery rates
    5) should start full scale mining soon at an annual rate pushing 1 million oz Ag equiv.

    I'm not saying it's any kind of 10 bagger or anything. Just seems like really decent odds of a double even if metals prices stay flat.

    Finger and toes crossed!

  155. Eric,
    You are causing me to rethink how much I am investing in miners vs. how much I am investing in physical. ......That's not a bad thing for me to be pondering today. My finances are so limited that my initial strategy was to accumulate physical but to try to hedge what I don't have in physical with the potential huge gains in some of the miners. But. I don't want to take such a gamble on the miners either that I start to neglect the physical. Sometimes for folks in my situation....a .92 stock share seems more alluring than a $33.00 ounce ..but you have to be really careful there.

    Thanks for making me think.

  156. Oh yeah, and Avino also recently completed a financing and Sprott took a ton of it, so all clear for lift off on that front as well.

  157. @jet

    Yes, the Fed and the bankers are stealing from you/us.

    So what?

    Do you believe it will be any different without debt-based money or the Fed?

    The fact is the status quo allows America to enjoy a level of consumption far in excess of what she produces.

    Dollar hegemony and by extension debt based currency is crucial to that status quo.

    I make no judgment on its fairness, or moral standing; merely the observation that you are better off today with your Fed and FRN than you would be without.

    You mention the big picture, what does dollar settlement for crude, and the emergence of yuan settlement mean to you?

  158. Sprott did the same thing with Aurcana. I was looking for another miner and Avino looks like one of the better ones out there right now. Funny how Eric Sprott's investments are all doing good. He has no worries about putting all of his eggs in one basket: the PM basket.

  159. I too I am having second thoughts concerning my portfolio. I am 75% weighted in PM stocks and 25% allocated to PM physical with a 60/40 ratio flavoring silver. After reading Trader Dan's article on HUI and ratio spread and given that the larger multiple gains most likely will occur and given the riskiness of a severe market correct, I really need to reconsider my portfolio.

    Suggestion and comments welcomed!
    Thanks in advance

  160. @TommyD
    All comments welcome. In my case. I sphinctered up tight. I'll post when the intelligentia replies.

  161. And't they're off! Good luck everyone :)

  162. Ginger and malcolm

    If whatever you are doing is working for you, then stick with it and don't listen to me. I don't want to mess with your head.

    It's all about finding out what works for YOU. What works for YOU, with REAL MONEY, with FEAR and GREED running amok.

    It's like if you are a tennis player and you know through hard experience that things tend to go badly for you at the net. You learn to stay back on the baseling and only rush the net if you see a super de duper chance for a winner. Otherwise, stay back. You can still win Wimbledon that way.

    malcolm, that being said, my .02 is that you look pretty heavy on the miners and pretty light on the physical.

  163. baseling=baseline obviously

    spellcheck please!

  164. Silver up 58c. Crude up 1.50. Grains should be up tonight too.

  165. Eric,
    Stop messing with my head. lol.., seriously.. I don't look at it that way at all. I read (devour) all comments here and am grateful that they force me to think, rethink, and reconsider my positions. I think that's how I will learn and grow and make better, more profitable decisions.

    I have made some bad financial decisions over the past decade. Am trying to right my it were.. and don't have the liquidity that most here seem to have but am really trying hard to dig out and prepare at the same time.

    It's a good thing. I just need a few breaks.... which will only come from hard work and good informed decisions.

  166. Gainesville Coins just put up some 1/2 oz Buffaloes. Haven't seen those there before. ...Premium too high though and better to stick with full ounces ..unless you just need/want to have some 1/2 ounces for trade.. ??

  167. I meant to say 1/2 oz silver Buffaloes.. I've seen the 1/2 gold ones there before.

  168. For all talking about mining stocks, this article says they have a LOT of catching up to do vs the price of gold.

    Bodes well for silver as well.

    Good luck to all

  169. opps forgot to add the link. Here it is:

  170. Does anyone have an opinion on the usefulness of 1gr , 2.5gr, or 5gr gold "bars"? Either for wealth preservation or easily divisble gold when shtf.

    For reference:

  171. @Pablo: I prefer the fractional gold in ounces myself, especially 1/2 ounce and 1/10th ounce because its easy to do the math. Since there are 31.1 grams in an ounce, it is bit harder to do the calculation in your head for grams. Also a 1 gram piece of gold is very small and easy to lose. One thing to consider for either option is the premium cost which is outrageously high for the smaller fractionals. I'm lucky to have a local coin dealer who doesn't rape me for the smaller items. That's my 2 centavos.

  172. Ginger and Pablo

    What the hell, I've got an opinion on pretty much everything! As folks here inTurd Town know all too well. :)

    I like Sovereigns or 20 Francs that run just under a quarter or fifth of an ounce, as the case may be. A Sovereign weighs in at about 8 grams, including the little bit of copper. But smaller stuff just scares me. I mean literally when I hold something like a Mexican 5, 2.5, or 2 peso in my big fat fingers I'm afraid I'll drop it and never see it again. I think that's the reason actual gold coins for circulation in those tiny sizes are pretty rare. Historically, the practical way to do fractional gold was basically...Silver!

    Now talking silver, the premiums on those fractional size pieces tend to be pretty high. IMHO the ultimate in fractional size silver is pre '65 US dimes. Cheap too.

  173. I just bought 1/4 divisible stagecoach rounds from NWTM. No increase in premium that way but it took two months to get them though.

  174. Eric, you are right though. dimes are the best fractional silver.


  176. I bought 1/10 oz. gold eagles last year for $126.00 ea. I don't think I'd pay $161.00 now though. I agree, Eric, handling even these small coins makes me nervous.

  177. Thank you, Timpa... The silvershield article has the point I've been trying to make.


  178. Hey there. First off I am not a silver investor, I know nothing of futures and I avoid anything to do with paper investments. I'm a coin collector. I found the turds site here from zero hedge and became addicted promptly. Now I check it every few hours. I wanted to chime in about the coin questions here. When you buy a coin, you are not only buying the metal contained in it but you are also paying a premium for the cost to have the coin made into a visually pleasing and standardized item. This premium is attributed to what is called the numismatic value of the coin. The numismatic value is above and beyond the value of the metal.

    If you are going to go out any buy a 1/10th ounce gold coin, you should consider paying the extra money to buy a coin that is slabbed and graded. The slab is the plastic case that surrounds and protects the coin. The slab will also prevent the little coin from slipping through your fat fingers when you take it out to drool on it BUT also, what most people don't realize is that the numismatic value of the coin will also appreciate above and beyond inflation, and coins that are slabbed and graded, although purchased at a higher premium will also appreciate at a much faster rate than the same coin that was purchased without the slab and grade. The ungraded coin you hold in your sticky, sweaty hands is going down in value as you look at it (and also making me queasy just sitting here thinking about it) If you do have gold eagles, don't touch them. (please?) The oil in your sweat will stain them. Silver is much much worse because it is already so prone to tarnish.

    If you want to increase the value of your un slabbed gold eagles, you might consider sending them in to be graded. Google NCGS, they are good.

    Again I'm just a coin collector who reads the turd for entertainment, I had to chime in though when I read about someone putting their greasy paws on a beautiful and historic piece of artwork like that. aside from the fact that your are losing money by devaluing your own investment, at the very least, buy some cheap cotton gloves my friend.

    On the other hand if you are hoarding war nickels don't bother with the gloves or the slabs, you could eat those coins and turd them out and the value is unaffected. Google 'ass pennies' for a laugh

  179. The Turd,

    You are revolutionary--

    I am very comforted seeing your personality...
    Scott J

  180. Gratis

    Excellent points. But part of my enjoyment is that I do like to handle my goods now and then. (maybe that came out wrong, hehe) That's why I tend to always buy coins that are already pretty much beyond harm already. A british sovereign that is well worn, already been cleaned, and with a few scratches and rim dings is right up my alley. Or one that used to be in jewelry, same idea. Gold is gold.

  181. persona gratis....Graded coins are fine if you think somebody will still be collecting them when grocery shelves are empty. It will be hard enough at first to find someone to take bullion. Buy bullion because an oz. of metal is an oz. of metal in times of crisis. Collectible Beenie Babies or antique toys won't buy food either. Bullion won't buy food either unless someone has it to spare or there is a black market. Your NGC ms 70s will not increase in value commensurate with the price of bullion once the buying panic starts.

  182. Wow, the Turd spoketh! Never a dull moment around here.

    Well done Turd. You really set yourself apart with that one. I also like your upcoming and well-timed changes with everything you mentioned. Your cred only continues to grow...

    Buy the ticket, take the ride. - HST

  183. Persona Gratis,
    What is your opinion on non-governmental silver rounds?

  184. Hey guys,
    Just wondering, in a SHTF situation wouldn't a better idea be to leave the country and start over somewhere else, instead of living in a mad max type of world. I'm just wondering if this is anybody's contingency plan. Not trying to be a smart ass but, that's what I was thinking about doing.

  185. qussl3,

    Whatever the solution for US economy is, it has to be built on top of honesty and integrity.
    Without it, it is kicking the can along the road, leaving the problems to the next generations, short sighted, and selfish.

    If we break Fed, the real interest rate is 10% to curb inflation, unemployment rate is 25%, so what ? Another new deal to build this country, no big deal, Americans have done this before in 1921. Just do it again.

    1. Farm industry will get stabilized first via finanical aid and production quota policy, like in 1921.

    2. US industry still has advantages in high end products, like defense, airplane, communication/computer/semiconductor/medical and US has close allies in all middle-low end products, such as Mexico on manufacturing and textile. US industry will set new pricing and production quota in each sub area with participation of industry leaders, union and House/Senate sub-committees and allies to ensure all parties interests are compromised like in 1921, instead of what is going on right now, 90% of manufacturing is outsourced, 70% of the computer industry is outsourced, to benefit the richest only without any consideration of national security and public benefit. Strong international reactions is expected, but as long as US continues to lead to stabilize middle-east, Asia, Europe, Africa, everything is controllable. China still runs the same stupid political system as 2000 years ago(vote by guns not ballots), just ignore them for quite a while, leaders there are best rule followers of western world no matter what they say in public to fool their country men, cause 90% of their relatives and money are in the west, like President Mubarak, no exceptions.

    If Americans are smart and brave enough to fix Fed/NY banker gangs this time, this country will get a much better future. Which healthy people need parasites on his body to live?

  186. That's it, Jet! Here we go! The problem that we have at this time is with "banker gangs!" Perfect! It lays it out exactly. Just like the Mob. The Mafia. You name it. Except that they are a legalized gang.


  187. Banksters have been thrown out before but they don't give up that easy. The war of 1812 was fought over fractional reserve banking and within a year after we won the war they were right back like cockroaches. The sheeple must somehow be educated. The banksters must be prosecuted and imprisoned for their viperous fraud. Then sound monie must be implemented. That will only be a start but it would be a good start.

  188. Tim, I plan on leaving. I believe that places more "out of the way" such as Australia, New Zealand, or even South American will be less likely to be casualties of violent struggle, have land that is arable, and can provide a better place to raise kids.

    If we're doing this bad violence and education wise being "the greatest country on earth" imagine how bad things will be when the USD loses even more of its value and Americans are faced with the reality of slipping further down the slope. I imagine, due to the liberal gun laws and already rampant crime in the country, that things will get much uglier.

    There is likely nothing worse than the end of an empire to cause internal combustion. While everywhere has problems, I hate to see what an America full of self-entitled gun-toting wackos does when they realize that they have to work for horrible wages and spend 50% of their income on food.

  189. I finally have a new post. Sorry for the delay.