Thursday, February 17, 2011

I am Jimmy Stewart

The Turd finds himself in a very odd situation. I feel like a Jimmy Stewart character in an Alfred Hitchcock movie...the ordinary man who finds himself in an extraordinary situation.

Before we get to our daily summary, I feel I must address this WB thing. Someone posted earlier that WB is "going away" and that "they" feel that "The Turd Ferguson blog" is a much better place for people to get info than from WB.
Look, I still have no idea as to whether this entire Wynter Benton story is anything but nonsense. There certainly is a lot of circumstantial evidence that something is going on and we've discussed that often over the past few weeks. No one...and I mean no one...should harbor any questions as to whether or not I am associated with this group, if there even is a group. The Turd is simply The Turd. I started this blog at the behest of fellow ZHers 3 months ago. It has grown wildly, frankly, to my amazement. Any opinions offered here are dreamed up solely between my two ears and nowhere else. Period. The fact that Benton gave me an "endorsement" is more surprising to me than anyone. My biggest concern now is that, IF The Morgue falls and takes with it the entire financial complex, I'll probably get my sorry butt dragged up to Capitol Hill under subpoena. Come to think of it....that ain't such a bad idea! I have nothing to hide and I'll probably get some kind of book deal out of it. Sweet! Let's do it!
Anyway, I had to get that off my chest.

To the business at hand...
We discussed last evening the potential for a complete breakdown in the EEs ability to raid and suppress the PMs.
What we saw today did nothing to invalidate that hypothesis. Take a look at the intraday chart:
Nothing but straight up. I was able to sell the March 31 calls I so foolishly purchased yesterday and rolled the "house's money" into March 32 and April 1400. Here at 3:45 EST, I've got 31.74 and 1385. Simply amazing. Maybe Blythe and Ruprecht have already bugged out and are currently in the first-class lounge at JFK, awaiting their flight to Venezuela.

Behold below this absolutely beautiful, daily silver chart. Sit back and smile.
Now that we are through the old highs, the question becomes at what point does the advance temporarily stop. The three other breakouts on this chart have resulted in roughly 38%, 26% and 24% moves from low to high. Applying that math here and we get a goal that is slightly above $33. Of course, if "Benton activity" continues, there probably isn't much stopping it there. Maybe we see $35. Shit, who knows?This is really unprecedented. Stay tuned.

I've seen some griping that gold isn't participating at the same percentage rate. Be patient. Please go back and review the post below, paying particular attention to the discussion of gold.
It was always going to be tough sledding until we get through $1390. I originally thought it would take until March 1 or so and it still may. Again, be patient. Once 1390 is broken and closed through, we should quickly move toward the old highs of late December and early January.

Finally, I hope you've enjoyed this three-week ride from Turd's Bottom. I wasn't the most popular guy in the world when I posted this but I think its worked out pretty well. I sincerely hope that your faith in me has been rewarded over these past few weeks. I know our "sponsors" appreciate your support and many of you have "fed the turd" and for that I am grateful. I'm scheduled to have my first website planning meeting next Tuesday so I will be soliciting opinions from you over the weekend. Please give this some thought as all input will be considered. The timing is perfect because this site is growing at an almost exponential rate. Well, with the endorsement of Wynter Benton...why wouldn't it be?  ;)

More this evening. In the meantime, my advice to you is to head out and tip an adult beverage. Days like today don't come around very often. Make the most of it. TF


  1. Had to get home early today to sign for the APMEX delivery ordered on the day before Turds Bottom! Thanks Turd!

  2. Never in my wildest dreams did I ever believe I'd find myself describing a silver chart as "pretty" but here I am doing just that

  3. I'm sitting here in very pleased, but stunned and shocked amazement at what happened today.

  4. Have one for me Turd ! What an amazing day...

  5. That daily silver chart is just one giant FUBM, stretching from New Years to today. woot!

    Oh, yeah Turd. Apparently you ARE some kind of all powerful genie, because I got my wish for no more dips. At least for a day! I'll take it.

  6. I woke up (in Sydney), saw the silver chart, and thought "Turd is going to shit himself!". A bit of self-referencing humour. Ah.... good times!

  7. Its a great day Turd, hopefully this will be the day that the EE is banished by the light of reason!

  8. Turd..the UK thanks you, well not the Queen, but the rest of us , well not all of us, ok...I do

  9. Take a look at APQ for leveredged silver stock vehicle to ride the bull. Caveat, can go down quick when things shift.

    Remembering everything is in cycle.

  10. Turd... Long time reader (well at least from the beginning), first time poster. I'm super pissed off I missed this ride up today, I was about to buy a shit load of $30 SLV calls at the end of the day yesterday but for some reason held off... What do you see happening tomorrow? My thoughts would be that we get a little bump in the morning and then retrace most of those gains later on... Dammit, dammit, dammit why didn't I buy those calls, I would have quadrupled my money...

  11. TDave- You and me both, partner. I am very, very torn between "Surely there will be some backing and filling after a run like that" and "The wheels are coming off, everyone dogpile!!!"

    First, big congrats to all who made serious coin today- we suffer through EE raids and other BS enough to deserve a win now and then. Enjoy. Second, in the words of Dr. Suess, "Today was good. Today was fun. Tomorrow is another one". So what's the next move?

  12. will be worth watching the bullion on - miner off hedgie action for a spell. i'm tryin to foresee how that unwinds.
    also trying to dig into which miners may have hedged the other 30% slim's operation did not. if anyone comes upon that info it would be appreciated...

  13. Congrats Don Plata,

    How often can you say you've mail-ordered for something that shows up on your doorstep worth 20% more than what you paid for it?!


  14. whats a chance of a dip in the overnight?

  15. As far as I know GPR (GPL on the Amex) is not hedged... Had to settle for a lousy 4% move with them instead of the 400% I would have gotten with my calls... Dammit, dammit, dammit...

  16. I'm with Pining, today's a day to just feel excited about what's going on, smart because we actually held on in the face of fear, and warm from this little community that's being built here.

    And congrats to you, Turd, for providing a meeting place and a steady fare of solid information to work with.

    Oh, and BTW, dibs on a front row seat at Turd's Senate deposition....I'll be the one with the feathers.

    Kiwi (you'll have to pry my AGQ from my cold, dead claws)

  17. Turd,
    Terrific day. Your trading analysis is spot on. I seem to recall Mr. Smith (aka Jimmy Stewart) went to Washington. How about we throw Senator Turd against the corruption?

  18. Well, I'm sitting here debating whether to call CMI and order then rush to the bank and get a wire set up so it can go first thing in the AM (They said I could do that because I had been a pretty good customer for awhile."

    TORN is not the word for it...On the other hand, as folks in earlier thread say, buying now won't make that much difference in the long run...
    On the other hand, those Bradley Waves seem to indicate we're at a turning point and we could see slippage into 2/23. MMMMM.

    On my right foot, I notice that tomorrow, I can see the overnight markets, call in an order at 7:30 AM and, in between talking with someone at 9 and the accountant at wire...

    I think I'll go that seems to split the difference as well as can be expected...????

  19. Guys, just a reminder that the Turd does not have a 100% accurate crystal ball. Short term, andything could happen...

    (Turd, if you disagree, by all means delete this comment!)

  20. Sorry, my editing was a mess.....I meant to say...

    "in between talking with someone at 9 and the accountant at 3, I can run and get a wire."

    STRESSSSSSSSSSSSS made me do it...

    And I must may call now anyway LOL!

  21. $1! One full dollar of backwardisation between Mar11 and Dec15!

    $31.75 versus $30.71

  22. insight you are stressing way too much :) if you're nervous buy half now and half later.

    yannick i made a chart plot of silver backwardation as of a few hours ago. i'll update it this evening since it probably looks completely different. it's all over the place to say the least!

  23. here's a link to the chart

  24. Hi-Ho Silver!!

  25. I've been a physical silver bull since Jan '08! We're lookin like geniuses! Those who saw it and accumulated under 20 spot, regardless the b-mers criminal crimex skull-thuggery; win king size beds!! We'll need them to swing up and support our giant, massive, tonnage, scrota balls-o-steel!!! hehehehehehehe!!

  26. Woooooooooohooooooooo

    Hard to stay reserved on a day like today!

    Say hello to Stage Two

  27. afrum: balls-o-silver! ;-)

    absolutely fantastic day, can't believe it!! we're at 31.80 ...

  28. Insight,
    If you are only buying physical (and not into leveraging a trading account) buy now. True, silver could go down; but as it is going down when do you decide to pull the trigger without thinking it will continue to go down? My experience has been that those that wait for a better entry invariably miss the big move (just check today's blog for all those waiting for a dip). Parabolic moves in commodities rarely present themselves with technical analysis. Just my thoughts...thanks again for sharing yours with us.

  29. P.S. Hard to believe it, but you should...if you're here and following TF it is still fair to call yourself an "early bird"

  30. Another great day for the question we chase if we are greedy or do we ride with what we have already.....if silver goes to the upper 30's here,since I am all in physical and miners, I will be most happy. I have stops placed on my miners, so if it gets smacked down by the Lady Macbeth, I don't get dragged down and can sleep with my silver bars. Life is great, ain't it??

  31. Turd..Sweden thanks you. The TF vs. BM rumble has been awesome! Might be cool to visit Capitol Hill but seriously - what are the odds of JP going down and what would the ripple effect be?

  32. Forgot to add is my belief that the lights will be burning bright tonight and this weekend in lower Manhattan. Regardless of what the charts are saying, powerful interests will be meeting and action to preserve their interests over a holiday weekend would not be out of the question.....remember the Hunt corner?? liquidation only......take care.

  33. @hawkeye

    You using % trailing stops with your miners or technical indicators?

  34. Anyone in USSIF? I don't know much about any of the juniors, but it sure went on a tear today. I'd be grateful for any info.

  35. And Turd - thanks, man. You kick ass.

  36. insightanalytical! No analysis of paralysis!! Just set up a monthly physical silver buy program! That's what I did in Jan '08 after cashing out my 401k with 10's of thousands of FRN benron burnokio bucks to invest!! With purchases monthly under 10K to keep bankster cash withdrawals/gov goons off my back; sometimes I bought high and sometimes I bought low!! It averaged out somewhere between 15-17 spot!! You do the same and don't think about some all in wire! On a regular monthly schedule, you don't concern yourself with or spend heart beats out guessing the thugs! Sometimes you'll be both glad and sad!! In the end, if you do it for 1 year, 2, or 3! You'll be more than glad hence forth! Print to infinity is key and knowing all governments print paper backed thin air promised currency to worthlessness! US gov goons no different!! When the dollar daze are over! All of us will be both sad & glad! Sad we didn't trade in benron bucks for more monetary stores of value but glad we accumulated what we did!!

  37. So far so good....technicals have broken out and algos will continue the pile on.....of course never underestimate the pullback when you LEAST expect it and of course BTFD we are on another up leg to 37 maybe 40

  38. "A prize fighter in a corner is told.
    Hit where it hurts.
    Silver and gold"

    Now my family can refer to me as that crazy-rich dude.

    $31 bong hits on me!

  39. I am personally in a catch 22 about recent action. For one thing, I am happy for all those who have personally invested money and are feeling rewarded for their efforts in a monetary way, along with hopefully an intellectual way.

    However, days like this show how serious of a situation that our economy is in if they cannot even hold back silver anymore. There is going to be very interesting times coming in the very near future, and I am not quite sure that people (including myself) are really ready for it. I can tell you one thing for sure, everyone reading this blog and participating in the comments is well ahead of the game.
    Scott J

    Ron Paul 2012(or how about 2011!)

  40. This is great. Good work Turd. Keep it up.

  41. Turd,
    congratulations on your reading of the markets over the last tough month or so! Boy, am I glad I followed you over from ZH!

    Let's all remember that the EE can the rules at any time.

    For traders, a healthy balance of greed and fear is required at all times.

    For hoarders, enjoy today but remember that the PTB are not going to give up on fiat currencies without a fight.

  42. of course i meant to say "can change the rules"

  43. On a day like today, it is very satisfying that I put in the time to do research, read articles, and THINK for myself.

    While everyone around here is worrying about the mirage of wealth in their paper 401k's, it is of great comfort to have such shiny, tangible security in one's wealth.

  44. - Financial Panics One Thousand -

    "This turning point in the PM markets was the beginning of the Great FIAT currency Meltdown"


    What was the "Turd's Bottom"?

  45. I'm just a kid playing futures and options so you'll have to excuse me if the answer to this question is obvious--

    Assuming the WB Group exists, what strategic purpose would they have to intermittently pile on shorts from now to expiration? If they did play a major role in the silver run (as some have disputed), I certainly would not want to take the chance of being on the opposite side of their trades.

  46. There will be no way out for the fraudsters this time, as in the days of the hunt brothers!! Completely different scenario with billions more people wanting to put their hands on the extremely limited resource of physical silver! REAL MONEY over fiat flim flam!! No central banks reserves or pre-65 silver coinage, our gov goons have to saturate/flood the physical market! If you're scared money? You'll not make money as the crimex criminals use fear & lies to keep you from the truth!! The truth is self evident and the bankster fraudster bullion vaults are draining fast! You can certify all the paper claims to silver you want but when the masses at large awaken, as now to preserving wealth; what little we the people have in hard currency! Flat out bankster cluster flockin to financial destruction!! Long, strong, physical silver! NO FEAR!!

  47. Hi Turd, this blog is truly a phenom and has taught me a huge amount about the market. Thank you for making it fun.

    Today was a fantastic day. A huge move in a short amount of time. However, it strikes me that we should keep in mind the longer term forces (which by the very fact we are on this blog, we are more aware of than others) which should lead to a steady rise in gold and silver. There will surely be dips and huge volatility but the mid / long term pressure is clearly up.

    Please keep this. Everyone, remember Turd's great sponsors on your way out!

  48. Turd --

    Five years from now, when you're testifying before the Revolutionary Finance and Economics Council in Blythe Master's Crimes Against Humanity trial -- will you promise to wear your hat?

  49. Hello
    first time posting.
    Thanks TF for all the work your putting into this.
    I got some money in at 30.60 and wondering where the shorts are going to get to? anyone want to guess?

    this might be of interest

  50. Bought GPL a day before and a day after Turd's bottom. First day was on feel, then backed up the truck after Turd called it. THANK YOU TURD!

  51. Mister,

    USA's a safe play, some would argue it's a conservative play.

    currently mines about 2.3-2.5M ounces with plans to increase to 3-3.5M. 330M shares outstanding. Read EPS is about $0.10 per share based on current silver price.

    few things to keep in mind when you're doing your own DD: a) hedged 25% of production for 2 or 3 years at $27.50 b) union contract expires end of this month but given traditionally strong relationship, likely mgmt/union will sign a new contract c) LOM is about 10-15 yrs but with additional exploration, highly likely the property has greater resources

    USA doesn't get much attention as mgmt isn't that great at sales/marketing - CEO is old school and let's performance do the talking.

  52. MUST READ- this is the perspective that really says it all. PM demand per capita world-wide as we speak is ifinitesimal; with the speed of information flow via the internet, people who today who never think of PM's will as TSHTF increases.

  53. Thanks to TF and thanks to the gang for all the valuable comments and information - it's certainly TURDO-CHARGED my portfolio!

    In return, here's one for the silver mining buffs on the blog, who might like a good story - a super rich silver mine, in the middle of nowhere, set up by the Hunts in the 70's, absolutely ready to go (turn-key), and not yet valued correctly - take a look, it's cool story and just the video of the flight in is worth the price of admission. CZN

  54. I'm curious what is prompting the weakness in some of the PM equities today. OpEx is here and now, but a number of the major silver producers didn't shine given the performance of silver.

  55. The coming Silver Panic of 2011 will be recalled for centuries.

  56. Turd,
    Thanks for the sense of community you've built on this blog. The last 3 years have been pretty damn lonely. Even though I've been riding this bull, I gave the wife of 20yrs and two pre-teeny boppers the 'Blue Pill' until the Shit Hits The Fan in a more 'in your face' kind of way. I think we're close to that though, when the wall of worry turns into panic. Until then, I'm just going to keep on bein' a Soccer Dad. Your blog helps me do that with confidence!

  57. A friendly reminder to all of the newbies (and old-timers, too) that Turd provides this valuable service for free.

    If you've made a profit off of Turd's Bottom or any of his other advice, be sure to add to the Compost Pile and donate.


  58. amazing to watch the silver arrow shoot upwards today, in the company of others who know its true value, and what it represents.

    thanks due to you Mr. Ferguson, for making the effort to educate with such great posts as "Wow" yesterday - I see your "followers" are about to breach "300" and will continue to spread your link as I'm out 'n' about in the web-world.

    you guys have kept things rolling with informative, supportive threads, appreciated reading with minimal trollage, maximum shared knowledge - it's a rarity, held from the beginning, /salute!

  59. @Mister: yes, i was happy to be in USSIF today -- only wish i'd been in Batero, too

  60. weird that of the few mining stocks I follow, two get mentioned. antrobus, I agree czn is a great story and with a lot of potential. To those who like to research, czn's attempting to get a permit approved to operate the mine in the NWT's in Canada. Here's the link to the board that's reviewing the permit:

    For those that like investigating, you can go through all the submitted materials by czn & other interested parties (ie. gov't dep'ts).

    scary good part is czn may be able to double proven reserves with further exploration. Notwithstanding, it's a 50/50 shot - either they'll get the permit or they won't so tread carefully.

    and btw, Sprott owns a significant chunk.

    another btw, czn owns about 15% of a gold company in fiji i believe that's expected to produce 100,000 ounces of gold.

    Mister - one other thing about USA I forgot to mention - recently, a mine worker was killed & USA is under investigation. I don't believe there was any negligence on the part of USA as they likely met all legal standards but you never know.

  61. Blythe wasn't looking so good at the end of the day. Here's a picture of her in her office watch the silver charts.

    Poor Blythe

  62. Turd: the donation is for you...

    The thanks go to lot's of you and lot's of others that I have read and learned from.

    Thanks everyone... I look forward to this website growing and hopefully having 3 to 5 forums so that we can leave the big posts to TF (and or guest posters of his choosing) while we can discuss crap down in the forums.

    Should be an interesting year or so, I'll be here with you and will keep donating... it's a very, very cheap commission!

  63. Several comments -
    First to TF - Big thank you to you and your entire family. You've been putting up alot of commentary that has made a lot of sense to alot of people. I certainly hope you start reaping a financial reward for that work.

    Second to the bickers who have slipped into the T-ville comment section, Please take that name calling back to ZH and keep it off this precious blog. Along this watchtower we do not benefit from guardsmen who want to act like girls gossiping at the local school yard.

    And, no offense to the ladies in the house (Ginger especially), I appreciate your comments and prep work as well.

    To Pick52- I am still not yet convinced we are in "stage 2"

  64. Been in USSIF since .48! Loved todays action closing at .615. Sold half and rolled into that laggard SSRI ;-)

    caramel, the worker who was killed was last June. I think he was a college football player just there for summer work. :(

  65. Check out Harvey..

  66. Turd- thank you for your posting your observations.

  67. StrongSide,

    I hope you're right about stage 2... All the better!

    I also hope you or anyone else doesnt consider me a bickerer after today. I thought it unfair of WB to start a blog saying, essentially, "hey everybody, me and my multimillionaire ex-JPM friends are leveraging to the hilt and going long March contracts...join us because we're going to $40 in a hurry" and then, the minute we cut through 31.25, come out and say, essentially, " hey everybody that believed us and came along, we are still long, but also might be short sometimes too."

    Anyway, I took offense to the assumptions Hamster made that calling WB out on this made me or anyone a "loser" who wasn't making money.

    Turd took Hamster's posts down, I believe, but for the record I felt he needed to be put in his place and also, I am in full agreement about the nonsense that goes on at ZH that you pointed out


  68. SSRI Has been a major laggard. Great company and management, but poor performance. It must be one of the hedge fund picks for shorting while long the bullion??? Who knows, but can't stay down forever!

  69. The MSM view of today's action (from the FT):

    Silver rises to 30-year high as mints start to ration coins
    By Jack Farchy

    Silver jumped to a 30-year high amid record levels of investor buying that has drained mints of silver coins.

    The price of the precious metal hit $31.37 a troy ounce on Thursday, up 16 per cent since mid-January and the highest since March 1980. The world’s leading mints have reported record sales of silver coins in January and some, including the Royal Canadian Mint and Austrian Mint, have had to ration sales.

    “We have sold everything we can produce in silver and have demand for at least twice that volume,” said David Madge, head of bullion sales at the Royal Canadian Mint, which produces the silver Maple Leaf coin. Silver coin sales at the US Mint and the Austrian Mint also hit record levels in January.

    The surge of buying has both boosted silver prices and helped push the market into “backwardation” – an unusual condition in which forward prices are lower than prices for immediate delivery. While investors are buying, miners have been selling their future silver production to lock in gains, which has depressed long-dated futures prices.

    Dealers said smaller investors saw silver as a cheaper alternative to gold with greater potential for gains as they look to preserve their wealth against rising inflation and currency weakness.

    The Austrian Mint sold 1.53m ounces of its silver Philharmonic coin in January, more than double the level a year earlier, according to Andrea Lang, marketing director.

    “We could have sold more,” she said, adding that the mint would boost production to 2.2m ounces in February and March.

    The US Mint sold 6.4m ounces of silver American Eagle coins in January, 50 per cent more than the previous record month, and have already sold 1.7m ounces so far in February.

    Silver prices have outpaced gold in recent months as the improving economic picture has caused investment demand for gold to wane but has boosted silver’s industrial demand – which, in spite of rising investor flows, still accounts for 80 per cent of total silver consumption.

    Both metals were buoyed on Thursday by renewed concerns over political stability in the Middle East. Gold gained 0.6 per cent to $1,382.90 a troy ounce, the highest in a month, but off the all-time peak of $1,430.95 touched in December.

  70. It is very hard to motivate myself to work on days when silver is making more money than I am.

  71. Strongsidejedi
    Well said. This place is simply the best.

  72. I am more intuitive and long physical than analytical and charty. Last significant buys were Aug 09, 2/5/10, and Turd's Bottom 3 weeks ago. Made a few mistakes in SLV along the way, like selling at $19 in May... and buying it back in October at $26. But like the blog says: "The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us."

  73. Perhaps this is Blythe's escape hatch. I wonder if she lets silver rocket up to say $35 that most of the longs will decide to take the cash and run instead of stand for delivery, either out of greed/lust for cash or fear (or a Blythe threat) that once they have physical the price is gonna drop like a rock.

  74. I have updated my Silver Data Spreadsheet so that it now updates in real time during the trading day:

  75. Thank you, caramel. I'm much obliged.

  76. There are rumours of another Chinese rate hike this weekend.

  77. I got home from work, Saw the chart, Got in the shower, And started dancing, While singing....shake ya groove thing.

    I love it baby! Chalk one up for the good guys!

  78. No pain at the top, yet:

    Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co., the second- largest U.S. bank by assets, boosted Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon’s restricted stock payout by 22 percent to $17.4 million.

  79. @Don Plata

    Everyone makes mistakes from time to time. Its how you use what you've learned from those mistakes that counts.

  80. @ Turdledove

    Each stock should be looked at and its trading patterns......spec miners traded in Canada are volatile and must be given greater leeway. For those I would sell half at a double and ride the rest as free shares. For producers I would look at each stock's chart and see where it has accelerated its uptrend recently, and use a price near there as my stop. To avoid whipsaws, you might stop half at that price if you can ride out a large correction with the rest. Each stock trades in a different pattern, so I don't use a set % stop......what makes me able to sleep at night.....not being greedy but not willing to give it back.....that is where you have the best stops. Good luck

  81. Turd / Jimmy Stewart,
    Hope you didn't mind that I suggested that they post here as a better means to disseminate information. It just seemed to be the logical venue as you are getting good hits here and a good following. Between dropping clues on different forums on yahoo and my schedule information was lagging by a few hours at times.

    BTW the AINt clue was simply the stock ticker AIN.

    At the weekend I will gather all their posts together by time line and put them in a logical order.
    Hopefully they took my other suggestion and document every trade real they make. It would make for some very interesting reading one way or another.

    I'll expect they will stop by soon enough.

    Hopefully everyone heeded their warning that they may switch positions without notice and will try and shake people out of positions. They may out Blythe the Blythe.
    Whoever or whatever they are they do know what they are talking about.

    Now gotta go check those COT reports.

  82. test test

    changing my moniker from my common first name "Chris" to an ode to U2s Silver and Gold.

    Anyone ever tried a Silverfuturist yoga pose? His enthusiasm is nearly enough for me to actually try it. I love that guy!

  83. Updated my silver backwardation chart. For those who don't know, the line should slope from low to high going left to right (contango). Right now it's all over the damn place but basically everything is flat to backward:

  84. For the record, I did not delete Agoldhamsters posts. He appears to have done that himself.
    I haven't had to delete a post in over a month.

  85. Flaunt,
    Good info...yep, Blythe is doing the same thing only high to low, doing the tango all over the damn place, flat, and backwards.

  86. Question to Turd and all respectively.

    Back last year was my first venture into the PM's. I didn't have much $$$, but I heard of the Monex company. I called them, and they had a deal where if you paid 20% down you could "buy" a 10oz gold bar. Then you could pay it off any way or any time you wanted...once paid in full they would ship the bar to you.
    But you could also just ride it out and not pay more into it to see what would happen in the market...if the value went up you didn't have to put more money into it to hold onto it. If the value went down you could get a margin call and would be required to pay more money into it to hold onto it or else you could lose it all.
    At that time I got it for 1052/oz, and obviously it's gone up since then, and also I haven't paid more into it either.
    Also...for them to hold onto it while I pay it off they charge 2%/month fee on the value of the bar.

    So my question to all is what would you recommend I do at this point. I still need to pay 8 more ounces off which was locked in at 1052/ounce in order to get the gold. I can sell it back to them at the current market value now for a profit, then use that money to buy more silver or whatever. Or should I continue to pay the 2%/month fee, not pay more into the bar since the value is looking to continue to rise quite nicely and let it ride?

    I was leaning on cashing it in since I'm getting hit w/ the 2% monthly charge on it and use the profits to buy silver...but at the rate gold could rise in the coming months I'm thinking it might be worth it to wait also...

    Whadya all think?

  87. Todays comments by WB and LC, along with the interesting (to say the least) action in the silver pits today, have given us some things to consider. A few weeks ago Eric, Flaunt, Cris, Co_Dan, me, and several others took part in an outstanding (and very polite) wargaming session on this topic, and I would love to see peoples thoughts on this.

    First, I would assert that todays action gave us some very important information- namely, that WB noted that once silver hit 31 we would see a very strong price move- described as a "supernova". Now this may have been a guess based on where shorts would cover, but for my money this move looked very real- several commenters today noted that the bid/ask looked like it does when the EE is goosing the price during a raid, but in reverse. To me, this says that whoever is behind the WB stuff has some firepower. I may be wrong, but to me, that move today was something else.

    Second, they are basically saying "Silver is going to the moon, but we will be randomly shorting along the way, so if you want to ride this horse don't use trailing stops". This is a departure, as Pick noted, from earlier messages and makes me suspicious.

    Remember the movie "The Sting"? Each chapter has a title and my favorite is "The Tale". To spin a tale to a mark it has to have strong elements of truth, make perfect internal sense, play on their preconcieved biases or ways of thinking, and most importantly must dangle the prospect of riches.

    Now if I were JPM et al, and I wanted to crush a growing and vocal opposition to our manipulations, the WB tale- complete with todays "win" for the marks (remember the fixed horserace?) seems perfect. Tell the tale, hook the mark, bait the trap, then unleash the sting.

    Just putting it out there for discussion- and no offence intended in any way if you are on the WB train. I may wind up believing this tale, but caution is requisite and something is strange with all this... Many thanks, friends.

  88. About gold lagging silver .... you would expect this (and I think it is natural) as we see the gold/silver ratio close in on the historical 1:12 ratio. So, perhaps gold will continue to lag.

  89. What's the March OI after today's trading? Anyone knows?

  90. Jayhawk,
    That picture of Blythe made me LOL...real loud. I'm pretty sure she must be feeling a little queasy. :D

    I agree with you about this blog! Thank you much for comments. This blog has given me a place to learn from so many people who know so much more than I do thank you ALL! I find myself wishing I knew how to trade like most of you all seem to be very profitable at doing. So far I just collect the physical and a basket of miners. I don't want to get greedy BUT...I am sure working on studying to see what else I can learn there.. .so, again.. thank you!

    Regarding CZN, those of you who are invested in this play may be interested in NIA's writeup that they did back in July of last year when they first put this stock on their recommended list. It was trading for .37 at time and I got in shortly thereafter at .40-something. I want to add more when I can afford it because I do think this one has HUGE potential. Here's the link to NIA's info ...and take note of this particular paragraph which I found very interesting:

    "The Prairie Creek Mine is partially developed with an existing 1,000 tonne per day mill and related infrastructure. There are still fresh paint signs on the walls from the Hunt brothers in the 1980s. In fact, in one of the bathrooms, you can see where the tile people suddenly stopped working and left all the tools behind when the Hunt brothers were forced to abandon the project."

  91. Another good chart illustrating backwardation in silver:

  92. Pining,

    my immediate reaction is that WB's following is likely to be among small players, like some of us. We have no say and would not even register on JPM's radar. I don't see JPM bothering to games vs. the small fry.

    Having known hedge fund managers, and having been one myself, I say WB is real. But I also say that the PTB can and will change the rules at any time, so I am very concerned that WB's apparent confidence is potentially overdone.

  93. Rui, from Harvey:

    "The total open interest for the silver comex rose by 1153 contracts to 148,266 from 147,113. We must have lost of a few bankers who threw themselves into the Hudson River today. JPMorgue continues to supply the silver paper. The options expiry month of February saw its open interest rise from 88 to 91 even though we had only 1 delivery yesterday. The estimated volume today was very good at 89,835 contracts. The confirmed volume yesterday was a monstrous 101,033 contracts. By goodness, JPMorgan was a busy camper yesterday trying to quell silver's advance as they supplied the necessary paper!"

  94. Hey turd, why do you think its JPM?

  95. Nice blog, Turd. Good writing (hilarious) and a good bunch of denizens.

    By all means... Jimmy Stewart. It is an even more Wonderful Life when gold, silver and related mining shares are involved.

    Advice to Blythe: If you must eat a Turd, don't nibble.

  96. caramel,
    You seem to be pretty darned good at the DD on these stocks. I was wondering if you would mind giving me your opinion...IF you have one and/or know about this company: Encore Renaissance Resources (ERRCF). The share price sure is low enough and they seem really well diversified having exploration properties near already known producing properties in Tanzania I believe well as having properties or interest in properties which explore/produce oil, gold, copper, lithium. Their stock does not seem to move very much however so I'm trying to figure out if they are way undiscovered or what the red flags would be.

    Again, only if you know something about them and don't mind sharing.. I'd love to hear your thoughts! ..If not, no problem ..I will continue to do my DD on this company and I do hold a small/medium poistion and am just trying to figure out if I want to increase it.

  97. BradPittsBro:

    Turns out it's Pan American Silver (PAAS).

    Turd, may I suggest a Turd Town boycott on PAAS?

    WB: you say you want to short someone??? Well...get after 'em!

  98. Save America 1st:

    I'm not a commodities or PM expert or an investment advisor, and I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn last night... but since you asked, and since you have a limited investment amount... sell your stake in the gold bar tomorrow, take the cash from that and buy silver coins (American Eagle, Canadian Maple). Take possession and hold onto them yourself. Then you will have something of value with no risk of contracts or agreements.

  99. Looking Good, Billy Ray!!

    I'm shocked, shocked! that nobody posted this yet today. I never get tired of it.

  100. Pining,
    I was one watching the bid/ask war, seeing the sell prices melt in front of the onslaught of buying (I think a lot of the sellers cancelled for a higher price, but had a hard time keeping up). For discussion sake I agree with TurdleGG; we're under the radar.
    Just an observation on your most interesting (to me) second point: parabolic moves are extremely volatile. One can expect to see moves like today going in both directions. If you are leveraged and not very profitable at this point, this is a horse that shouldn't be ridden. WB "sounds" extremely capable building a long position "to the moon" by picking up the contracts from those falling off the horse during the downtrend corrections.
    I'd be very interested in other opinions. Thanks for the thread idea.

  101. Save America1st

    Ok, so the way you bought that gold was a tad screwy, and yes you should probably get out of that and quit paying that 2%/month. 24% per year!! But, on what to do next I would respectfully disagree with Larry, and go back into some more gold of whatever kind you like. Gold is money, baby! Silver is a fun speculation while it's going up, but for something to stash away maybe forever, it's got to be gold. IMHO

  102. re: no pain at the top.

    Bear Stearns claimed it was solvent the day before it was broken and sold for 10 cents on the dollar.


    I've convinced myself the Silver metal shortage is real, and a rapidly increasing price may backfire on the Morgue and not release enough excess metal into the market to dampen things. Instead, it may induce 2008 type conditions where supplies get wiped out quickly with the General Public stepping up and grabbing silver. With metal becoming scarce, this kind of thing feeds on itself. This would trigger fear among industrial users who need metal and will pay any price and boy oh boy, who knows what will happen then...probably a full scale Financial Panic. Our first in over a century.

    So if you can, buy more physical and hoard it.

    In the meantime, it's time for pizza!

  103. @Save America First,

    Monex is not one of my favorites because of their program as you described. They may or may not have your gold bar, or they may have bought ounces in a futures contract,figuring you would sell out before the bar was paid for. So this is what I would do, if you can sell the bar for current market prices, by all means do so, have them send you the cash (minus their fees and commissions) and find a dealer like Apmex from whom you can buy Maple Leafs or American Eagles, gold or silver, and take delivery of your coins. If they say you can close out your contract at the purchase price (you most likely signed a contract agreement when you opened the account), then I would borrow the amount you owe from a home equity loan or a rich uncle, and pay off the contract pronto. You are paying 24% a year on a commodity which has risen an average 18% a year for 10 years.....Monex has a good deal going, especially if they do not own the gold bar as they claim. And take delivery of your 10 oz. bar, do not let them store it!!!

  104. Pining, for what it's worth, I don't believe that the 'who' in this case matters. Blyth, Winter, or whoever. Turd always says focus on the fundamentals. Supply is short and demand is high. In the end, someone will figure out who did what to whom and we can all sleep better with physical in our safes.

  105. Inflation Watch

    A while back I posted about I've been watching the weekly sale price of ground beef in my area as my tell on food inflation. Stores have been bending over backwards to maintain a weekly sale price of $1.99, even though regular prices were already getting obscene. I've been watching this for a couple of years, waiting for my stores to Cross The Rubicon of $1.99.

    Well guess what? This week it's $2.29 sale ground beef across the board! Boom Goes The Dynamite!

  106. Hey Ginger, what would your opinion be in entering CZN right now?

  107. Hawkeye

    I'm betting Save_America1st takes his net cash and runs over to Gainesville Coins as fast as he can. They already know him so well, they are going to name their next born child after him!!

    ha ha, just teasing you Ian...

  108. @Pick52 - No worries amigo. My posting was not targetted at anyone in particular. I was speaking in a macro sense after skimming some 200-300 postings across the other threads.

    The best discussions so far have been the "war game" scenarios where we are debating the impact of various moves by TPTB and EE.

    It is really funny to watch this board do this work.

    We are all operative under pseudonyms and I like that. Obviously, anyone with sufficient national security and investigative power can penetrate those IP logs and blog accounts. So, in the end, there is no security in these pseudonyms unless you're registered really carefully.

    Yet, I am most angry and most irritable with the people at AIG, JPMC, GS, and other NYSE traded corporations. Escaping the District Attorney or Attorney General investigations by influence peddling is one thing. But, thinking you can escape a free market, divorce paper stated valuation from reality, and then profit from the falsehood is obscene.

    I have lived through quite enough at this point.

    There is no point in having my progeny exposed this obscenity!

    Whether you live in the United States of America, Euroland, British Commonwealth, Asian nations, or Petroland/emerging nation/BRIC/ME/Africa/Oceania nations; self-preservation will prevail over such larceny.

  109. Rui: Basis last night the March OI still stands at 55,811.

  110. Save America1st...On 11/1/10 I swapped 5 gold eagles for 238 oz. silver rds. That same swap to day would get me 213 oz. Last Feb. it would have netted around 340 oz. You decide.


    A JPMC trader walks into the local Etrade.

    JPMC: I just bought this short at $30.

    Etrader: From?

    JPMC: I just left here! I bought this short at $30 on silver!

    Etrade: And?

    JPMC: This trade is dead!

    Etrade: It is?

    JPMC: Yes! this trade is dead! Look at it!

    ETrader looks at the upsidedown trade.

    JPMC: He's been dead. You sold me a dead short!

    Etrade: No, I didn't!

    JPMC: yes, you did! Look at him!

    Etrade; No, it's a robust short. A real gem isn't it?

    JPMC: It's dead I tell you!

    Etrade: No, that trade is pinning for fjords!

  112. blog ,book, tv .come on. well if snooki can get recognition, why not a turd

  113. Anybody on this board know anything about Bralorne Gold Mines (BPM.V)? Very tiny market cap, like 30 million. Very thin trader. I bought 1400 shares today and it was a bitch because it only traded 5400 all day. I only bought it because I was familiar with their story from about 10 years ago. After I checked their current website, of course. Might be ready to rock again now.

    I told everybody on this blog a while back that I tried to stay away from juniors but you SOB's have enticed me back in again after a long time sober! When I go off the wagon I go all the way off!

  114. So.... Will The Empire Strike Back?

    Turd, this is certainly NOT a complaint. You are my sensei and you rock! I am just trying to get a better sense of what you think is next.

    You have been saying that the EE's grip on the market is getting weaker and I buy that analysis. But are you now saying they are done? So will they fall back to their next trenchline now or are they, as you described, on their way to Venezuela?

    You said we could buy with impunity after we cleared the resistance at 31.24 - 30.50, but we blew right through with no apparent resistance.

    After waiting on the sidelines all day for the big smackdown that never came, I am eager to get back into the game, but can't believe the enemy has no more fight left in them.

    I believe we are going to see both the price of silver and the GSR in at least the high 30's in the next few months.

    Can't wait for your next post!

  115. @Rick-
    That ratio is pretty ironic isn't it?

    There's some people who are still trying to claim that there is no silver shortage.

    Meanwhile, the physical availability of the one ounce silver coins is clearly less in every coin shop across major cities in America.

    But, don't mind the's ALL about the paper..right?

  116. It's bleedin' demised! Nice one, Jedi- we can hope...

    Vernon, Gary, and TurdleGG- thanks for the discussion and thoughts. MUCH appreciated. I get that we are such little fish that JPM et al likely doesn't give a rats ass what we do... but then why should WB's group, either? And my physical isn't going anywhere, but my Vegas money has been riding AGQ and I am getting nervous. Closed out 40% of my position today to wait and see how things shake out...

    Hey Dean Wormer- get rid of those pesky Deltas yet?

  117. StrongSide...Those stagecoach rds. are just now in shipment for mon. deliv. I don't know if that speaks to silver shortage or slow NWTM delivery.

  118. @Pining-
    On a more serious note about your war gaming...

    There's tons of propaganda to play out here.

    You are correct about the WB group. However, if those earlier discussions about Winters and London / Rothschild is correct, then WB has aligned with interests that would rather bankrupt the USA than see the UK banks go down more.

    This may be coming down to the level of who survives...the UK banks or the US ones.

    The UK banks lost their gold...are they trying to recover some at the US expense?

    In the US, the EE will try to lie their way out of the pickle vat.

    Here's my short list in no particular order

    US stock exchange index flatline or falling
    S&P500 = gold 1 oz or 1/2 oz?

    US Debt Ceiling going to be extended (per lobbyists in DC)

    Municide - you name the city and we name the bond.

    USDX falling more...testing new lows?

    Yen default? No really, this time we mean it!

    Euroland breakup (because breaking up is hard to do...yeahyeah yeah)

    and did we leave out QE3?

  119. ex-Parrot,
    yes, it is a little strange that WB went to the bother of trying to educate us little fish about what they were doing. Maybe they felt a little civic-minded and knew that JPM would know what they were doing sooner or later anyway?

  120. Turdle, I totally agree that TPTB can and will change the rules at any time. However, I think even THEY are backed into a corner.

    Any rule change that causes one of the following will cause the entire House of Cards to fall:

    1) A market-based acknowledgement that COMEX no longer provides legitimate price discovery for silver (like what is already happening with WTI in the oil market),

    2) A rapid rise in interest rates,

    3) An informal declaration that gold and silver are monetary assets (i.e. PM confiscation or massive trading restrictions), or

    4) A derivatives implosion.

    Bernanke/Dimon/Blythe have PLENTY of WMD's at their disposal. I just don't think they have the missiles to launch them far enough to keep from blowing themselves up.

  121. Turd,

    If I recall correctly, your first post on ZH mentioned that you were interviewed on air by CNBC as a commodities expert. Is this true? Regardless, you are a legend and I have enjoyed watching your ascent!

    John Bigboote
    (pronounced Big-Boo-tay thank you very much for those of you that tend to say "Broo-shet-ah" instead of "broo-sket-ah" when ordering said dish at the "Olive Gardens" restaurant)

  122. Turd, thanx for the March OI.

    CO_Dan, that's a good point.

    Jim Willie once talked about a comical solution: Their warehouse might mysteriously catch on fire when delivery month comes and EE comes out declaring their metals are lost so they cannot deliver, "Oops, looks like our bars evaporated during the fire. Too bad, no delivery. What, you think we're cheating? Well unless you can prove we set it on fire we're off the hook. Bye bye." :-)

  123. I should also mention that when you order broo-sket-ah at the local Olive Gardens, your 19-yr-old waitress will correct you and say "oh, you mean broo-shet-ah...yeah we have that". At that point there is nothing you can say without sounding like an a-hole. FYI. But it is better to be right from a cultural standpoint. Just let it go.

  124. CO_Dan,
    good points. The one thing they have going for them is that the silver market is very small (compared to gold) and miniscule (compared to other asset classes). If JPM is the big Comex silver short then any fiat losses will be reimbursed quietly by Bernanke. And they will choose to take as long as they like to deliver any silver they need to deliver. No doubt they've got some contingent off-take agreements with miners somewhere. If they take 1 year to deliver who it going to prosecute them? Sure, it will damage the Comex's credibility, but it will only be a once-off event because position limits (with exemptions for JPM, etc) will quickly be imposed, thus stopping WB from trying her tricks again.

    Please note these are just my speculations. I am NOT a Comex or derivative specialist.

    p.s. word verification: comenced ! It certainly has

  125. Good to hear that others on the blog are onto CZN (Canadian Zinc) - I figure it's a great lottery ticket. If (when) they get that permit in the next couple of months or so, it's triple in a heartbeat, and once that huge mine starts up (all ready to go) it's a 20 bagger - if that metaphor applies to numbers over 4 that is. :+)

  126. I have a new thread for the overnight.
    See you tomorrow.

  127. Big-boo-tay: Yes, I've been on CNBC a few times. As recently as earlier this month, but never as a "commodity expert". They have plenty of those already.

  128. Thanks you guys...

    Eric, that was did you know!!!???

    But you are correct...I'd be knocking on/down their door w/ that chunk-o-Bernankies right quick if I cashed that thing in.

    It sounded like a good idear at the time when I did it...mainly becuase I just F'ing knew gold was still going to keep on going up. But I feel like a douche for not "getting it" about silver at the same time or I woulda bought as much as I could have then.

    I appreciate the replies on my question, thanks to all. Strategically, I'm torn between cashing out now to buy silver or letting it ride a while longer to see if it hits 1600 and then cashing it in.

    How about I set a time for sometime in May and stick to it? I'll give it 3 more months and then either cash it in or buy it for delivery.

    And speaking of GVille it odd that in 1 weeks time then went from 2.75 to 2.90, and now DOWN to 2.80 over spot on silver eagles?

    I think it's wierd they dropped it down 10 cents while price was rising and supplies dwindling. Maybe they caught some flack for it???

    I'm thinking after today they're gonna jump it up to 3 Bernankies over spot...just a guess.

    If anyone wants me to pick them up anything just lemme know...I'm only 5 miles down the road from them! :)

    The Turd Rules!

  129. AlexBershadsky,
    I agree whole-heartedly with Antrobus about CZN. I am in and looking to get deeper in as I see great upside potential. Time is of the essence mentioned by Antrobus and others...once they get all environmental permits squared away and everything operational with the mine.. well, the potential looks very good!

    I believe that the current just over $1 share price is a steal. HTH!

    I don't know anything about your Bralorne pick but I did want to say that this stock is for you what the one I referenced above (ERRCF) is to me! ...Which I guess is to say it's a gamble. you gotta go out on a limb sometimes and hope for a winner with a long shot! You're doing very well with your more solid picks (ie: GPR, SLW, etc.), don't worry if you choose one that may or may not be a winner! ....I'm going to go check Bralorne out now. :]

  130. Eric.... at first glance my long shot is more of a long shot than your long shot. :]

    Volume on mine today was exactly ....wait for it.....