Monday, February 14, 2011

Hit Where It Hurts

Silver and Gold.

I must say that I am quite pleased with the resilience and strength of the PMs this morning. Both are receiving a boost from an ass-kicking copper market, which is testing the highs of last Monday and is back above 460.

I think we've reached a point where the PMs are about to make their short-term intentions known. They have similar chart patterns and both appear poised to break higher. However, they have also both given us a nearby guidepost that will help us discern direction and trade with confidence.
Here are your two charts with comments below:
Rarely do these markets look so positive yet also give us a clear signal of where we should be cautious.
In gold, we've had 7 trading days to consolidate around that center line, which I've drawn near 1355. It looks to me like we are ready to start another leg higher, as soon as today. I can invest/trade with confidence that we are headed to the 1390 area very soon. However, I can utilize a pretty tight stop because its so clear that a move down trough the lows of last week, near 1345, would instead signal that the break to 1390 is still some time away. From $1360, that's a ratio of 2:1, upside to downside which isn't too bad.

In silver, you see an almost identical pattern. There's a very clear centering line around the $29.80 area. The longer we stay above there,  the more likely a test of the old highs becomes. Like gold, a decisive move down through the lows of last week would postpone that test indefinitely.

In the end, I think both charts look great and so I'm willing to stick my neck out once again. While admitting to the foolishness of predicting short-term moves, I'm going to do it again anyway. We've got $7B in POMO today and tomorrow is Happy Tuesday (we know from experience that the highest percentage of UP days fall on Tuesdays), so I think the breakout happens now.
A run in silver, through 30.50, will set off some buy stops and instill confidence in longs. That will kick us up to $31. I expect this later today or tomorrow.
Gold looks to be headed to 1370 today and, trading through there, should jump pretty quickly toward 1380.

So, let's kick back and watch this play out. It should be a fun day. TF


1:45 EST UPDATE
A very nice start to the week. Silver closing above $30.50 is significant.
I'll have some updated charts within the hour. Keep checking back.

78 comments:

  1. Well I, for one, am enjoying the action this morning. My wife says I need to stop watching the charts and do some work! But I much prefer making money in markets as opposed to grading a stack of college essays.

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  2. Silver is seeing some excellent pressure to the upside. It seems increasingly unlikely that backwardation and severe inventory issues aren't going to propel silver exorbitantly higher in the very near future.

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  3. Man, there's nothing like a vertical line to make me happy....well, a vertical going up... ;-)

    I'm going to reverse my earlier approach to just holding tight to my AGQ....If I want to maximize my gain I really need to sell on the spikes and then wait for the next big dip....I keep fooling myself about it going up forever, but in reality, there's always going to be the next big dip that's a good buying opportunity.

    Thanks for listening... ;-)

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  4. Let um run....loaded for a trade if the rack it up ....otherwise I will just become a "heavy" longer term investor ...No matter what happens I will keep a heavy core even if I get a little short term profit this week....RACK UM TURD...you break.

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  5. good support today...March quickly approaching, I heard Blythe has fabricated a special top secret silver printing press...in which she can print 1 0z special edition B Masters coins filled with aluminum/grinned up keyboard keys.

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  6. Dr. Jerome, I had to laugh at your comment. I find it extremely difficult to focus on work these days as well. I'd much rather check out the PM market and watch the battle royale between Good & Evil

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  7. So let me get this straight- TF says that he sees a strong possibility for a good move upwards today and posts this at 8:08 EST, and at 8:10 we promptly rocket up 30 cents... personally I'm leaning more towards Nostradamus than Nostradumbass at the moment.

    And this begs the question, which billionaires are reading the TFmetalsreport?

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  8. @PftFjords, while I appreciate and trust TF's expertise and insight, he did post this particular note at 9:08 EST. Not that I am constantly refreshing the TFMR page in my browser, or anything... ;-)

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  9. @kiwi stop losses.

    There is a part of me who wants PMs to move higher because I know they will.

    There is a bigger part of me who wishes they would tank cause I buy more every week it seems like.

    I know this sale can't last for ever.

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  10. Turd, do it again. Call for a run through $32 this time though!

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  11. silver rocket drawn at Kitco,s NY spot silver chart
    between 8:30/8:45.

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  12. All hail the Panther! I should have picked up more @1.99, I don't know what was I thinking only buying a thousand shares...

    Turd, I was wondering if you had any comment on Jim Puplava's podcast from Friday (11 Feb). He seemed awfully skeptical of the possibility of a short squeeze. Given what we've seen so far this month, and what little we've been hearing from "W.B." as of late, what's your "bird's eye view" of the battlefield at this point?

    You've been dead-on about just about all the major moves since December, and I have full confidence in your reporting and your honesty - you've earned our trust. But perhaps you'll allow me to sow this seed of doubt regarding the stories behind the moves.

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  13. USD debt based fiat paper currency! Backed by the thin air promises of politicians, who can't deliver on one carnal security policy to be viable in the future! Print to infinity! While our government does this! Buy your genuine monetary stores of value and keep them close to your vest; person!! The great depression II sweeps ferociously upon a people; lulled for decades into a carnal security! Pain is the greatest persuader to change human behavior!! Appears we're in for lots'uv pain! Change!

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  14. Really, forget WB and all that nonsense. If there is any truth to it at all it is fantastic, but even without it the fundies for PM's vs. fiats has not changed one iota. If we can break the Comex and manipulation, that would be amazing but the "truth" will out eventually no matter what, it always does.
    In the meantime, in between time, aint we got fun! And PM's still on sale- get you some.

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  15. Great Panther is doing so good this a.m. YAY...... ..too bad I didn't buy as much of that as I did Silvermex. :[

    Silvermex: ...you need to get in there and fight man! GOOD GOSH...slug it out and come out swinging............ ...don't you SEE the silver chart this morning???? :[[

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  16. CD is correct. I started typing at about 8:30 EST and submitted at 9:08.

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  17. SLW; SIL; GPL; TRE; UEC; URRE.
    To da moon Alice

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  18. I am looking at charts this morning and I like what I see. We are trading in an uptrending channel, the top of which is over 31 at this moment. We may move up to challenge the 31.27 high later today. Not sure how much TA matters these days, but anyone out there programming their algos with TA will be looking at the same thing. And, as Turd reminded us, tomorrow is Tuesday.

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  19. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  20. would like to buy dip today. looks like it might be sold out

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  21. New Sprott audio on FSN, worth it for even the Puplava haters:

    http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/big-picture/2011/02/12/02/eric-sprott-larisa-sprott-jeff-rubin/silver-demand-wti-brent-crude-spreads


    Re: yesterday's post..here's a handy list of survival items:

    http://www.lewrockwell.com/rep/top-100-items-to-disappear.html

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  22. So much for 30.60, I have a last of 30.72!

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  23. Another key is that PM's up vs. all fiats for you dollar-centric folk! Uranium stocks on fire also

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  24. Things looking good today!

    If you want 10 FREE, really good survival guides in pdf format, this post looks good:

    http://www.preparedsociety.com/forum/f39/top-ten-survival-downloads-pdfs-5056/

    I downloaded a list like this(from somewhere else I don't recall now) and put it on my thumbdrive on my key chain. I figure the army's own guides gotta be pretty decent!

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  25. @Dr. Jerome -- I was going to ask about this earlier. From a technical standpoint, do earlier intermediate highs count as resistance levels? $30.75 was the high from 12/7/2010, and the level 30.60 - 30.70 seems to be acting as such.

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  26. Alasdair MacLeod and James Turk talk about gold and silver:

    http://www.goldmoney.com/video/macleod-turk.html

    MacLeod's site (recommended):

    http://financeandeconomics.org/

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  27. Ron Paul Winning CPAC 2011 Straw Poll causing run on gold and silver!!!

    (just kidding, but I wish...)
    -
    Scott J

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  28. The White House assumes the US 10-year note will average a 3% yield in 2011 for the budget calculations...

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  29. It's not just the PMs. Brent crude 1 month futires are up 2.6% today.

    It's all coming right today. I have oil from Dec 2010, Silver from 11 Feb at $29.85 and Gold at $1345 from 4 Feb. Almost spot on. The silver and gold trades were a little bit influenced by TF. This blog's so good I linked to it from my own. Gotta spread the word!

    http://micksfund.blogspot.com/

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  30. Scott,
    NIA just has an article out predicting that Ron Paul will win 2012 Republican nomination AND the general election. They think we Americans are getting more and more educated about our dual part system and how the pot is not that different from the kettle.

    http://inflation.us/ronpaulfrontrunner2012.html

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  31. Our friend Wynter is back at it again for anyone who's interested. I can't say these latest revelations are particularly compelling:

    http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_J/threadview?bn=10073&tid=386628&mid=386636

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  32. Latest from Wynter Benton:

    "You "AIN"t seen nothing yet!!

    I just wanted to chime in to reassure silver investors that everything is proceeding as we had foreseen it.

    I am here to play devil's advocate (or more accurately Louis Cypher's advocate) and document what will happen as we approach $31.

    Again, you "AIN"t seen nothing yet."

    And here is an important post about how she defines "winning":

    "Ecomm,

    since you were defining whether we "won" or lost versus blythe last week, I will define what our group considers winning and losing. If by the middle of march or sooner, silver trades above $37, then we consider it a win. If during this timeframe, silver trades between $33-$37, then we consider it a draw. If silver does not trade over $33 during this timeframe, then we will consider this a defeat.

    That is our standard definition for a win, a lost, and a draw versus Blythe."

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  33. Pick, that Sprott interview was great. Everyone needs to listen to it.

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  34. Glad you liked it flaunt

    Kliguy and Eric aren't fans of Puplava, and I'm not really either. I listen to the program for the guests, not the host

    For anyone interested, Sprott addresses question after question about both near and long term physical silver shortages

    He never gives JP what he wants to hear

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  35. Oops, signed in here under my real name today...I'm aka Pick52. Ha

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  36. Does anyone have an opinion on if AGQ would still be a good investment in the event of a comex default considering that they trade paper?

    Anyone see it as overbought or due to come down? I'm looking to throw about 8 grand at something later this week????

    Gotta love SLW this morning!!!

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  37. Spencer,

    If you think SLW is good, take a look at AVL & GPR.

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  38. Hi, I live in Japan and I want to buy gold and silver. I'm not Japanese and my Japanese language skills are not so good, so searching on the net in Japanese isn't yeilding good results.

    For gold, I can buy from Takana Melters. Does anyone have dealings with them? Arethey reputable?

    For silver, I can not find dealers with bars smaller than 1kg. Does anyone know of a dealer in Japan that sells smaller sized bars (by the gram or by the oz)?

    Thank you.

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  39. Stereotypical FUBM/FUTF pattern developing in the charts. Hopefully, Turd has enough juice left in the tank for an afternoon run.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fz1ex78QeQI

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  40. @Ginger

    That is awesome! Thank you for the article, I will be making a very large post about my experiences at CPAC, highlighting the major events. The Donald Trump quote of "Ron Paul will Never Win" was caused by heckling after he said "I really like my job, but I don't see a candidate that is qualified for the job.."
    -
    I have so much good footage that it is going to take a little bit to make a master post, but I am going to try to show the left/right paradigm in action... Especially my friend questioning the panel about Blowback... can't wait to get all the footage from my friend later today :D
    -
    We need a Revolution in this country....

    Abolish the Federal Reserve!!!!
    -
    Silver is getting close to that 42.5 support for the GSR... It should crash through it when gold heads back to 1430, the GSR support would be silver at 33.65....

    Something tells me that silver is about to reallyyyyyyy take off...

    I welcome March...

    By the way, I was informed by my brother this is the first day China reopened their markets after the new year, anyone have any input on this?
    -
    Scott J

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  41. Kinda off topic a bit anyone looking for a stock pick(gold play), check out PVG.T Pretium res. Its run by the former CEO of SSRI/SSO. Its been putting on a clinic since its IPO. Looks like they could be sitting on the mother load. But as of course do your own DD.

    Schnitz

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  42. i refuse to get excited about even 1 dollar moves in silver anymore. we all know how badly both G&S are heavily manipulated in terms of fiat, which both of those factors only being able to loosely tell what's really going on in terms of real supply, demand, and value.

    what's more, the longer they suppress the price, the more we can accumulate. and when they finally do break out, we know life as we know it is about to change drastically. so why cheer a rise in a fiat denomination...

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  43. CD,
    I noticed that 30.60 provided support from 12-31 to 1-4. It zoomed right past while my back was turned writing the post. Happy to be wrong on that one.

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  44. well said AP. We shouldn't underestimate the power of Blythe/JP either... who seem to have unlimited resources at their disposal to push down the market.

    Silver is having a tough time keeping above 30.50 - there seem to be more scared sellers at the first sign of a move down than there are buyers of conviction (I'm referring to futures contracts here... not all you coin accumulators :)

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  45. Middle East Shooting...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R3LazFJ0wa4

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  46. Sometimes we get ANALysis of paralysis with each mouse fart of a silver move!! Keep the overall real money silver, constitutional declaration for a return to honest AmeriCON'd money; silver! We don't need to pull the plant up and shake the roots daily to see how it's growing!! You guys kill me some days! The silver awakening giant will not be put to rest until it crushes all thin air, paper backed, fiat monies to worthlessness!!! That's it's lengthy history as the crown prince of gold!! It will take it's proper thrown! Be seated gloriously, in the monetary courts of the world!

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  47. There sure does seem to be a lot of unrest spreading throughout the Middle East. I don't expect that it will die down anytime soon; there is a lot of energy behind these protests in Yemen, Bahrain, and even Iran. Algeria is a big wildcard as well...and I find it hard to discount serious unrest rearing up in Egypt again. People want things now, not the promise of elections; when the joy of Mubarak's departure wears off people will start up again.

    It seems like the perfect catalyst is continuing to brew which could send PMs higher.

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  48. Inflation News. My account balance!

    Turd, You are a machine. How many times in row can one man make the perfect call?

    Turd - Prepare Accordingly.
    or
    White House- Win The Future WTF

    I am ecstatic and frig en terrified. I think we will need a bigger boat. Count me in.

    Turd 2012

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  49. Hey TF,

    Love the U2 reference in the post title today!

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  50. What's up with Zerohedge? Site offline at 12:55 EST

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  51. Dr.J - it seems to be back up (@1PM)

    Pick52 -- very good catch, I missed that. Ole' TF seems to be quite the fan.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-HQJXI4nVw

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  52. Welp, I decided I'm still not comfortable with my asset exposure in paper. Made the call. Hopefully it will make a decent "dent" in taking some physical silver out of circulation by mid week! LOL. Mostly gold, but a good sized silver grab this time too.

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  53. I don't think the Chinese CPI report is going to hurt us either. Gonna climb aboard the thought process here. Could we breach 31.50 by Thurs? Yea I think so.

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  54. Great article by Rick Ackerman on goldseek.com. Compares value of gold 1971/today. Eye opening insight on bankster manipulation.

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  55. Reinforcing what we all already know:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/comex-default-or-hunt-brothers-redux-comex-silver-inventories-drop-4-year-low

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  56. Compelling reasons why Silver is about go crazy.....
    1) Backwardation
    2) Ron Paul "Soviet Crash in America"
    3) Andrew Maguire news "put people in jail"
    4) Dutch Bank Forced to Sell Physical Gold by Court
    5) A copper penny is worth 3 cents.

    View here:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-owMEgK95c

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  57. @Himalayas

    That seemed to be only teargas. The flag was Bahrain...

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  58. Well it looks like Winter is reading the Turd's blog
    I want to believe so make me a believer Winter. Just email the Turd a few minutes before you guys make a purchase. The Turd can verify the validity of the move but won't have time to act on it and everyone is happy.

    Yup I chose this name because I do like to play the Devil's advocate. If Winter had mentioned the movie reference it would lead me to believe Winter is not a "a clever 14 year old hiding out n Mom's basement" but then again there are probably 30 year old people who don't get the movie reference.

    Either way it hasn't influenced any investment decision so far. Convince me and I'll stand for delivery from the Comex too.

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  59. Rick! Enjoyed article at goldseek! The more I know, the less I care what the paper fiat FUDs are up to in discrediting the competition! Gold/silver real money vs paper fiat ponzi piled high and to infinity!! What heapin pile of ashes the bankster fraudsters keep selling the public!! Wish more ameriCON'd would wake up but then I'm entitled to my dreams!! If only!! If the queen had balls she'd be the king!! I do dream!!

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  60. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  61. afrum...I enjoy your creative posts. Banksters are liars and "Sons of Satan"!! Market manipulation is not strong enough. Market control is more appropriate.

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  62. boy, you folks are slow here ... there's a reply by lady winter for louis cyphers call made a few days earlier here:

    http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/02/important-day.html?showComment=1297350693758#c6179453519555315683

    Now check out the latest posts by Lady winter - good luck with the puzzle! lol

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  63. The "Spin" Masters are out in force ....

    Silver Shortage Blamed on "Miner Hedging" as Price Rises with Gold, Global Inflation Data Eyed

    http://news.goldseek.com/BullionVault/1297692060.php

    It sure looks like all systems are go for liftoff. The MSM must educate the Sheep as to why prices are rising.

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  64. Mr Hamster,
    I love a good conspiracy as much as the next guy but don't seek them out. The onus is on Lady Winter to convince us not for us to convince ourselves.

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  65. Spencer said...

    "Does anyone have an opinion on if AGQ would still be a good investment in the event of a comex default considering that they trade paper?"

    Anyone investing in AGQ needs to be aware that you have counterparty risk with JPM since they run the ETF. Also, the underlying assets are most likely futures contracts, so counterparty risk with Comex as well. I'm going to try to sell my small position near the February/March peak and probably stay out after that.

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  66. Stan, Thanks for that info. AGQ is really tempting me but with all these numbers coming in regarding the comex it seems that there is a lot of risk with anything related to paper.

    I'm not educated enough to know what the effects would be on something like AGQ during a squeeze.

    What would you recommend? The returns that AGQ is throwing out are really tempting. Do you see anything that is safer and compares. Miners, etf's...????

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  67. I'll be substituting SLW for AGQ. SLW is very safe and greatly leverages changes in the silver price. They are selling real silver coming out of other peoples mines.

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  68. @Rick,

    From the Ackerman article:

    "If you divide the 1971 “fair market” price of $42 by .02, you arrive at $2,100"

    The flaw in the calculation is that the 1971 price is the that of the "free market". Clearly if that was the case then why did Nixon close the gold window? The reason was because the $42/oz price was NOT the free market price - but rather it was the FIAT price dictated by the US Government.

    France disagreed with this price and thought it should be a lot higher - so they traded in a lot of paper money for gold coins at the DEFLATED price of $42. This drained a significant portion of the US Government's gold holdings. Nixon cut the gold window to save the gold (not the gold price, to save having to loose all of USA's gold to France/Europe).

    Gold continued to rise to $600/oz. So Ackerman should have used that price as the "free market" price of gold.

    600 / 0.2 = $30,000/ounce

    That's the dirty little secret.

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  69. For reference, the Ackerman article is here:
    http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1297666860.php

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  70. So this Jack Bogle guy on Fox Biz right now (says he's the founder of The Vanguard Group)...he totally scoffed at gold as if we're all idiots for owning it.
    Said it has no intrinsic value at all. No worth other than from speculation and that it's over-priced. But then he said it could go through the roof because you never know what the speculators will cause.
    I'm pretty sure I got that fairly accurate from what he said.
    Turd, do you know anything about this guy? Is he some Lib who bashes gold/silver while secretly stockpiling the crap out of it at the same time?
    He's an older dude...like in his 70's...you'd think he wouldn't have that kind of opinion on gold unless he's some douchebag like Soros. He certainly seemed to have a cocky attitude about what he was saying.
    I have no idea, so of course I will only turn to The Turd for his opinion!
    Thx ahead of time...

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  71. Jack Bogle is an icon in the investment world.

    But, understand that his whole life is wrapped up in equities. Physical possession of gold and silver is probably a bizarro world concept to him.

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  72. The Valentine's run-up over $30.50 was nice, but at from a purely technical perspective I see a high risk of a significant correction near-term, perhaps back down below $25. Long term I love silver. We may see some great buying opportunities this spring or summer.

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