Thursday, February 10, 2011

The Madness Continues

Another month has gone by and the Fed has pumped another $110B or so into the markets via the Primary Dealers. With the completion of last month's POMO schedule, (POMO explanation found here):
the Fed has, of course, released the new POMO schedule for the upcoming month. To no one's surprise, here comes another, brand-spanking-new $93B in fresh greenback over the horizon. Oh, and if anyone wonders why this month is $17B less than last month, take a look at the calendar. Its February and, since this isn't a leap year, that simply means there's three less days for The Bernank to run the presses.
 Now, without further delay, here is the schedule of your Federal Reserve in action:
So, you know what's next don't you: Yes! Its your monthly lecture to not be short anything! If you've missed the previous two lectures you can find them here:
The bottom line is...If it's denominated in dollars, its going UP. Oh, you might catch the occasional break and have something move down temporarily but, far more often than not, if you're short, you're gonna get your ass handed to you. Period.
Here's our regular monthly summary:

Asset                             1/12/11                         2/10/11                           Total
March Wheat                  7.71                              8.63                              +11.93%
March Copper                441.60                          454.35                           +2.89%
March ES (mini S&P)    1283                              1319                             +2.81%
March Silver                   29.67                            30.09                             +1.42%
March Soya                    14.15                            14.33                              +1.27%
March Sugar                   31.98                            32.05                              +0.22%
April Gold                       1388                            1362                               -1.87%
March Crude                   91.87                            86.73                             -5.59%

If I were a betting man....and I am...I'd be willing to wager that the underperformers will "revert to the mean" over the next 4 weeks. In fact, that's such a good idea that I'm going to buy some crude and sugar calls tomorrow. Its hard to imagine those two not playing catch up over the next month.

Please be sure to read Harvey tonight as he is getting very excited:

Also, be sure to read this from Trader Dan:

And I'd really encourage you to spend some time with this...if you can somehow ignore Kudlow:

OK, that's it. So far, things are trading nicely this evening so I hope to take the rest of the day off.
A few folks had asked earlier just what I would recommend to the "WB Group" IF they exist and IF they are looking for advice. I'd put the frickin hammer down tomorrow. I'd buy silver with both hands in an attempt to really squeeze the pussy shorts and drive price through $31. The high on the weekly chart is $30.98 from 12/31/10 so, if you could get price UP through there heading into next week...well, lets just say it would be beneficial to all of our long-term interests.

Turd out.


  1. That's quite a shopping list the POMO has got going there - these boys are like Imelda Marcos on crack shopping for shoes.

  2. Turd, would you mind sharing your crude & sugar calls with us, by that I mean the specific instrument, ETF, futures, producers, ect?


  3. Insight--

    Speaking of GG and Rob McEwen, here is the corporate presentation for UXG. Nothing like laying it all right on the line! McEwen could teach those Vancouver schmucks a thing or two.

  4. Turd,

    As you so often do, a comment at the end of the previous post that there is a new one would be very much appreciated. Otherwise we just go on chatting away...

  5. Interesting about the shorter month resulting in a lower $ amount for POMO. ZH posted earlier that it was a "weak" schedule but it didn't occur to me that there were fewer days thus less time to send the dollar to oblivion. It's amazing that $97 BILLION of free money to the banks can actually sound "smallish." Sheesh.

  6. That must be the first time I've ever heard anyone reference Imelda Marcos for anything. Nice one!

    If the financial rebels can get silver above $31.50 by options exp in two wks, I'd greatly appreciate it. I bought some call options back in Dec and have been underwater the whole time. Yeah, kind of selfish, but I promise to reinvest half of my profits in physical to help the cause if they would be so kind as to bail my ass out.

    PS - I think I have an addiction to this site and to the 24hr charts.

  7. My first batch of silver 1kg bars just arrived from Perth Mint, so I have finally joined the physical club !! Not sure if it's enough to crash the EE, but it's my little contribution, with more to come.

  8. I have issued a buy alert on my blog. Part 4 out tomorrow. Money shot baby. Keep up the great work here Turd, together, all of us can take this bitch down...(not spot price) I'm talking about him/her master.

  9. Eric...

    dang so serious. Don't you just hit the "Refresh" button every 10 or 15 seconds like the rest of us do? (too slow?) maybe I should refresh every 5 to 7 seconds?

  10. drink, refresh, drink, refresh...repeat...

  11. Victor: I am going to be buying calls on the sugar and crude futures. If that's not your deal, I know there are a couple of crude oil etfs. I've traded UCO a few times. Sugar...I don't know if there are any other options.

  12. Ian,

    Yeah, I just leave it at the bottom of the comments and just refresh once in a while. My machine just takes me back to the bottom of the list, the newest comment. If there's a new post entirely, I could easily miss it.

  13. So how is the price at the pump rising despite WTI staying relatively low? Is the European Crude used in the US refineries?

    SGS, thanks for your participation along with Turd. Both of you, Harvey, ZH, and a few others are a daily fix for me.

    As far as silver, I almost picture it like a boiling pot trying to hold the lid on as steam and water violently escapes at times. A little longer it seems and the lid will be sent into orbit. I have just received another ASE tube in the mail from Gainesville. Shipped earlier than expected. I've amassed 56 ounces of physical silver and also picked up some of that Great Panther in my trading account. I'm not rolling in the dough but doing everything I can to hedge against the dollar.

  14. I've done options on USO before. It could be a good buy though if things calm down in Egypt crude could go lower.

  15. I'm curious on what is considered normal for physical possession. I read some posts and I think the person must own a vault...other posts lead me to believe that maybe the guy/gal has an ounce or two. So, I'm not asking what YOU have, but rather what you think is a NORMAL number of OZ of silver that one should own. Here's my number: 1000oz.

    What are your thoughts??? 10oz, 100oz, 1000oz. 10000oz,.....

  16. For anyong interested in some backstory on Rob McEwen (working totally from memory here so don't kill me please), he was running Goldcorp way back when it was just a typical Canadian underground gold mine. Mostly played out, getting too deep, costs rising, you know the drill. So he did something completely unprecedented. He put all the data out to the public. Drilling data, ore grades, 3D models, the whole smear. And asked anyone and everyone if they had any ideas. Where to drill next? They tried some of those ideas and sure enough they hit it, big time. And that's what sent GG to the moon.

    Then later there was a falling out with the board and McEwen bailed out and started up UXG.

    The other thing that McEwen did that I loved was for a while the gold price was awfully low, so he just said screw it we'll just put the stuff in storage and leave it on our balance sheet. Not For Sale (at your crappy manipulated paper gold prices). Sold all that inventory later at higher prices.

    Balls. The guy's got Balls.

  17. Eric, just scroll to the bottom, if thee is a link for newer post, then you know there is a new one out there. Anyway, that's what I do.

    Patrick, 1000 oz. is where I feel comfortable, the rest i put in my forex silver spot account.

  18. Hey guys,

    Well, I went back to the coin shop today. The wife begrudgingly came along. She opted to stay in the car. I told her we ain't wasting gas, so I turned off the car and gave her a spare blanket from the trunk.

    I kept the chit chat brief with my coin shop buddy. I gave him highlights from my computer soap opera and told him his shelves looked clean. I bought 2 Silver Maples.

    After the coin shop, my wife wanted to go to JCPenny to look at drapes.

    I wandered aimlessly in the home furnishing department, totally bored out of my mind. As I examined a some tassels, I realized drinking two bottles of water before leaving the house was a bad idea. It took me 20 minutes to find the restroom. After taking a leak, I lost my wife and 40 minutes later found her fuming mad in the car.

    On the way home, after she calmed down, I showed her the Maples. She said they looked like game tokens, and I replied, "That's right honey, we're living in a casino... and it's all about to go to hell." We stopped at White Castle to pick up sliders for dinner.

  19. Jim Willie talks about a past Silver deal between China and the US (Wall St), that Wall St violated, and now China is going after its Silver with a vengeance.

    Willie is predicting $100 silver in the next 2-3 years.

  20. It's just so great to see the recent attempted take-downs in silver prices just kicked in the teeth. Here's hoping it turns out as we think it will.

  21. Patrick, there is no one answer as you can imagine. All depends on the person and their net worth. For some 100 oz may be all they can afford now. I know many retirement aged couples with over a million dollar nest egg just sitting in annuities and paper crap investments. I tell them to put half into Silver, 25% into gold, and the rest in some other good commodities or mining shares, etc. They look at me like I'm from another planet. Also being "Normal" and owning silver is an oxymoron considering 98% of the general public don't even know it exists. But that will all change one day.
    Me personally, I have nearly 100% of all my assets in silver. I even withdraw my 401k and IRA's early put the money in pm's. I've been collecting for 3 yrs now and fortunately did most of my buy in the teens.
    i try to put my money where my mouth is...
    I would say anyone with several thousand oz. will be sitting a good bit of money down the road...

  22. Patrick, check out the Kitco PM forums for all the silver/gold talk you could ask for.

    Here's a long thread which discusses your question, stack size:

  23. SGG is a pure sugar etn...I recommended and bought heavy in may of is a rec I gave in June...HUGE money maker...great trading vehicle..

  24. Thecoloredsky - congrats on picking up some physical!

    WTI is being manipulated in price downwardly by criminals. There is no set formula that keeps the crude and gas prices consistent with one another. Just remember every time they can screw you at the pump they will.

    Just like normally it costs $30 dollar for a cheap little rental car here in Fort Worth. During the Super Bowl last weekend all the rental places were renting those same vehicles for $80.

    Point is, companies are always looking to profit based off perceived or actual demand.

  25. Thanks, guys. I will check out Kitco forum.

  26. Just get the auto refresh (Reloadevery 4.1) add-on for Fire Fox. It's free. Right click and you can set any page to reload at any interval you choose From seconds to never. Very handy for keeping sites going that time you out. It also works in Opera.

  27. Art

    I'm just too lazy to scroll down to the bottom of 50-100 comments every time. So I just leave it there right above the "Post a Comment" box, and refresh from there. My own fault if I miss something.

  28. I go home each evening and rub silver on my nuts. My E.D. is gone, young chicks dig me, and I have added a couple inches. That's right, 5 large. If silver is this good, thinking about trying some platinum soon. Shoot the moon, so to speak.

  29. Hey Patrick,

    The only thing I can add to the discussion is that I like to keep about half of stash I one to ten ounce pieces the other in 100 oz bars. If you ever had to trade using silver you will probably want a little of each.

    As far as the amount on hand? Having one ounce of silver puts you in a better position than someone who has none! Some of us (like me) are coming to the party late and haven't amassed the quantity they would like, YET. Working on it though :)

    Thanks again to the great Turd. You've dang sure made a difference in my life by educating me for free, you've made me laugh my ass off at times and I think you've got a great community growing here. Keep up the good work ya bastard!

    P.S. I will go clicky some links for you shortly.

  30. Brian- I will never look at a "tube" of silver eagles the same way again. Hahaha... Cured your e.d. Hahaha

    I'm going to have to start washing all my silver now, I never considered someone could have Pre-fondled my silver!

  31. Turd said:
    "I'd put the frickin hammer down tomorrow.... squeeze the pussy shorts and drive price through $31."

    Them fighting words, Turd.

    Evil must be cleansed from this world. Praise the Lord and pass the ammo. I'm buying the silver dip tomorrow.

  32. Impala

    She stayed in the car? For cryin out loud, it's a coin shop not a porn shop!

    You got some heavy lifting to do there, my friend.

  33. @2006 Impala Driver... those game tokens are getting to be all the rage

  34. @johnboatcat

    Thanks for the tip! I'll get it tomorrow.


    Yes, I read that same story at least one other place, only I couldn't remember if it was silver or gold that they supposedly loaned to US banksters several year ago and now they want it back. The source I read said the Chinese might be looking to use the ETF as a way to get their metal back without bumping into COMEX rules.

    If the Chinese are in the midst of trying to get that silver (don't remember how many oz it was) back, they certainly would not want the price to spike until after they get their metal.

    Probably someone else on this board can shed more light on this one.

  35. In trying to find a good long-term (30-50 yr or longer) silver price chart (adjusted for inflation), I stumbled across this:

    While a bit dated, offers some interesting long-term perspectives, silver/gold swapping strategy, opinions on premiums, etc. Don't know the gentleman (Franklin Sanders), but to have foreseen the current events in 2006 seems indicative of a pretty good noggin.

  36. Hey Turd,

    First off - I'd like to say THANK YOU for your blog and all the time and effort you put into posting. I've been a lurker here since day one and, like many others, spend much less time at ZH than I used to due to the quality of the work and folks around here. So, thanks (and that goes to all you others here, too).

    I'd be interested to hear more thoughts on the "go long or get out" mentality. I've been long metals for awhile now and don't plan on stopping, but the market as a whole has given me pause since mid last year. I feel like we've been way overdue for a bit of a crash for awhile now.

    I'm certainly not short any individual stocks, but I just picked up my first puts on SPY for 12/12 (no, everybody, it's not based on the mayan calendar...). I'm very much conflicted about the feelings (1) that the market is totally fabricated and is overdue for a drop and (2) that there's so much fresh money that nothing is going down for a long time.

    What do you think?

  37. So, my first shipment of 1kg bars arrived. But I'm in the office. If I open them here there'll be too many prying eyes. Memories of childhood come flooding back: waiting under the Christmas tree, picking up my presents and shaking them, waiting for mum and dad to wake up so I could open them!

  38. 2006 Impala Driver, that was the funniest comment I've read in a while. This part is definitely true:
    "That's right honey, we're living in a casino... and it's all about to go to hell."

  39. Ladies and Gents,

    I propose two thoughts for your consideration:

    1) Regarding Wynter Benton and her group: IF they could come up with $3bn (and that's a monstrous number!!!) that's only 20,000 silver contracts. Outstanding OI is around 60,000+ contracts, and daily volume fluctuates between 40,000~60,000. At this point in time, given the large size of the OI, they need to save their ammunition to closer to March 1. In other words, they don't have the firepower to push up the futures market on a daily basis YET. Once OI drops down to between 10,000~20,000 that's when we will see the price really move.

    2) Regarding the daily "EE attacks" that happen like clockwork around 8:30, I propose that it is NOT the work of one (or even a few) major players. It is instead, the collective response of the market (mostly algorithmic trading programs) to newly released economic data. Now please correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't jobs data come out around 8:30 AM? and for the most part economic data has been pretty bullish. I am not saying the numbers are reflective of the state of the economy, but I am saying that looking at the numbers by themselves, they have tended to beat consensus estimates. Therefore, with "bullish" economic numbers coming out at 8:30, the algos kick in and sell the PMs - bullish economic figures -> less need for further QE -> sell PMs, buy S&P.

    Thoughts/comments much appreciated.

  40. Turdle GG

    Awesome. I know the feeling. It's killing you not to at least take a peek..

  41. ALCON: Guys/gals remember Turds a pro, make sure you know the difference between an ETN(exchange traded NOTE) and ETF( exchange traded fund)... The ETN if I am correct will not let you get out during the day, you settle when the market closes like a Mutual Fund. The ETF has a slightly more liquid purpose, am I correct Turd? Of course buy physical, store food/meds/ammo/h2o you get the picture, read Turd... COL T

  42. Eric, I took a peek (hey, mum and dad aren't watching now...). I know they are only 1kg, but it feels like a HEAVY 1kg...

  43. Patrick

    We get similar questions regularly here in Turd Town. It's getting so my stock reply is that my physical (roughly 2 parts gold to 1 part silver) totals up to roughly 1.5 years of our take home pay. It also roughly equals our total debt levels, house, car, everything. Is it normal? I have no idea. My wife would say definately NOT :0 Is it enough? Again I have no idea, but I keep throwing it out there as just one guys metrics.

    Believe you also had a question earlier today about whether you were doing the right thing, etc. Maybe this will help:

    The cost of energy (oil products in particular) I believe will get more and more burdensome. When they were new, a pair of 1964 dimes would buy you about a gallon of gasoline. Nowdays those two silver dimes will still get you around a gallon of gasoline. If you are thinking ahead and trying to hedge the future, would you rather fill your basement with gas cans, or keep a box of silver in your sock drawer? I'm for silver (and gold).

  44. I have an uneasy feeling a Silver rally not work out as planned. I hope my feeling is wrong. It will soon be crunch time for march Silver and something has got to give re physical delivery (per Harvey Organ). It should sky rocket but we are up against THE greatest market manipulator of all time AND Crimex. I have no idea how they are going to handle this but I'm quite sure they have a contingency plan already in place and it very likely won't be in our favour if the exchange is forced to implement it. I would suggest some protective put options for insurance in case the trap door somehow opens. Nothing to worry about if you have physical of course...It will be an engineered divergence in the paper v. physical price.

  45. Turdle GG

    Take the package with you into the restroom. Close the door behind you. Open it and stroke it.... the kilo bar of course.

    Blame Brian. He started it. hehehe

  46. @Eric - The new comment link I look for is right below the comment box, just scroll down like one screen length to see it. Im lazy too, which is why I'm glad it's so close.

  47. Art
    Yeah I know the one you mean. But we go like 6 hours at a crack without a new post so it's just not that big of an issue. But still, I like to have maybe the last 2 comments and the comment box on my screen, and the Newer Post Older Post thing is another scroll down from there. Am I really that lazy? Um....yeah.

    The thing that tripped me up tonight was that it seemed like 5 or 6 of us were just chatting away after the new post and so I don't feel like I was the only one not paying attention to the new post. I never got the feeling like "hey where did everybody go?"

  48. Went to the coin shop as well today, got a 10 oz bar, some maples, a philharmonic, and some generic bullion. It feels just like Christmas on the days down at the coin shop!

  49. Maybe I'm biased, but I think the silver chart is looking really good. Great channel, cleared a key hurdle on the 4 hour--now giving some good support, bull flag forming. Looks prime for a strong move up.

  50. Midnight beatdown in progress.

  51. Thanks Turd & guests for the sugar/oil feedback



  52. buff daddy

    Not expert at all, and could be totally wrong, but the last time I checked, an ETF supposedly has possession of the underlying stuff, be it stocks, metals (big controversy there!), or whatever. Whereas an ETN struck me as a completely unbacked paper product, designed to track a given instrument but you are totally at the mercy of the creditworthyness of the issuer if things go wrong. I could be mistaken but I haven't really looked seriously at an ETN since I got that impression.

    Sheesh! Long day, gotta hit the sack and gear up for tomorrow. Could be a big big day for silver!

  53. The only way to beat the manipulation is take all the metal away....and they will be helpless. That's what were seeing in the market. If it continues (and it should) prices HAVE to move up a lot.

  54. Patrick, fwiw I don't have a particular numeric goal for physical PMs owned. My strategy is different. I save a certain amount each month. previously, I invested that amount in stocks, but last year, after I realized what is going on with the western economy, I started investing my savings amount in physical PMs.

    I have to admit that I was really complacent - I saw the problems in the U.S. economy for a longer time, but I thought everything was fine in Euro-land, where I live. I even thought that the Euro might have a shot at usurping the Dollar as reserve currency **blush of embarrassment**. Then the Greek problem and the Ireland problem and the other Euro-problems came to foreground, and it became apparent even to me that I was completely on the wrong track. So I started buying PMs as a store of value.

    I thought about selling my other investments in order to buy more PMs, but so far, that hurdle has been too high. Instead, I shifted some investments to silver & gold mining stocks.

    I will continue purchasing physical PMs with my monthly savings amount until either:

    1) The economic problems in Euro-land & the U.S. are solved, the Chinese property bubble is resolved, etc. so that the world economy is back on a low-inflation growth path with no Keynesian money-printing by the central banks.


    2) TSHTF, making it impossible for me to purchase more, and potentially (worst case) requiring me to rely on my saved PMs to support myself and my family.

    I continue to hope for 1), but believe 2) is more likely.

  55. Turd,

    A suggestion. I notice a few contributors have asked that you let everyone know when you have made a new post. I think this is a good idea.

    It works well on Calculated Risk, he drops a graphic of a "Mortgage Pig", kind of a trademark image, into the comments when there is a new post.

    Maybe you could drop, er, sorry.

  56. thought I'd pass this link along. I was looking for a good historical chart which showed the runnup in the silver price in the early 80's. Haven't found a weekly chart yet, but found a monthly chart which shows the runnup.

  57. Guys, maybe one of you can cure my concerns here. (Eric?) It amazes me that everyone is so sure, that PM's will make them rich (yeah I know, some of you don't think about it this way...but let's be honest, who doesn't want to be a wealthy mofo)....even though it's wholly dependent on the continuance of the current manipulated system. (what must go up, must go up) If the system crashed (or commodities would be declared as strategic resources), a war would most probably follow and the illusion of a post-apocalyptic world where PM's turned us all into the new-rich would vanish. In my opinion all current market action is manipulated, and it's just a show to keep us from seeing what's really going on. I still believe that physical can protect your wealth better than anything else, but hoping to get rich off of it is BS. Just look at the fact that it took gold/silver 30 years to be once again recognized for what it truly is. And it would most certainly take it another 20-30 (or more) years after the "apocalypse" (that everyone seems to see just around the corner) to regain its former status.

    Maybe you can address one more point of concern for me. If PM's were so scarce, wouldn't vendors just keep them and get rich on their own? I can still go out and buy any amounts of silver bars and coins here in my country, same for gold. While all these businesses accept my paper in exchange.

    Something just doesn't add up...

  58. @Cyan - Even if we don't see apocalypse now, if the price rises back to $50/oz. - $100/oz. over the next few years you could get pretty rich off the price action alone using minimal leverage. If we do see apocalypse now, and you manage to survive, who knows what the hell will happen, but you're still probably better off with some metal than without it. I have no clue what the future holds, but I have doubled my savings over the past three years by keeping it in silver, so whatever happens from here, silver has already done me a world of good.

  59. @Cyan - I'm with Art.

    Same numbers, but I didn't realize what was going on until 2008. Even then, I was like Impala driver until 2009.

    Gentlemen, if the Egyptians have it figured out, WTF are we doing?

  60. @Art&Jedi...this is why I love coming here, when I get these stupid nagging thoughts. I get some perspective!!! Only thing that has mostly kept me to gold is the stupid 20% VAT here on top of the spot price for silver. Ag would have to rise significantly to offset the VAT premium.

  61. @Cyan - I had some doubts in the past, especially during the big drop from July - Nov 2008, but I just kept thinking about how fast they are creating fiat currency and that gave me the courage to max out all my credit cards at gainesville coins back when 100 oz bars were around $1200. I don't know how gold will do compared to silver in the future, but if you look back from 2000 to now they have performed comparably. I think you'll do fine with either.

  62. Guys,

    This is to add to the debate "How much is enough ?"

    I am from Third world, so my calculation is based on that. Suppose if one requires 25 Gms equivalent worth of Gold to make ends meet for a month, then, to have pension for next 40 years is equal to 480 months, which equals 480*25 Gms = 12000 Gms. So, approx based on todays GSR of 45, one can amass 12Kg Gold or 540 Kg Silver.

    Thaat should be enough. hehehe

  63. The Rarest Earth, by Ted Butler:

  64. Followup on IMF/SDR thread:

  65. @ 2006 Impala Driver

    Sounds like you and the spouse may not be on the same page, which can be a difficult situation. May I recommend that you head over to the discussion forums at There are numerous threads there with specific tactics on how to resolve this issue.

  66. Jimmy and Brian, you guys know about ass pennies, right? You'll never look at any coin the same way.

    One of my favourite videos from Will Ferrell's web site,

  67. Jon: (from last evening)
    Everything you say about the stock market is true. Its completely manipulated.Eventually, it will all come crashing down.
    In the meantime, it could go a lot higher and if you insist on shorting it, you're going to get slaughtered while you wait for the inevitable.

  68. Jimmy: Your time perspective is way too short. The almost daily, 8:20 am attacks have been going on as long as I can remember, in good times and in bad.

  69. @Patrick: Buy as much as you can afford. You're storing your wealth in a relative form. I've been doing 10oz a month. It's all I can afford right now, but it's better than spending it on crap or putting it into black hole like the market.

    OT: I will be losing my job on March 31st. Anyone looking for an ASP.NET C# Web Developer @39.50/hr 1099, let me know please. I need 30 days notice to set up any new contracts so I can assure a proper schedule. Resume' upon request. I would definitely consider a consulting gig at a negotiated hourly rate as well. I don't do PHP (sorry).

    Sorry for the OT pimp, Turd. Don't mean to flood your most awesome blog with my troubles. I just figured someone here might be in the market for a remote web guy. I dropped a tip into your bucket to say thanks.

  70. UG: No apology necessary. I'm glad this site is here to help.

  71. If WB is real, today may be the best time to strike and push silver significantly higher. $31+ would do the trick.

    The price has rebounded nicely off ~$30 a few times now but we need to move past $30.50 now.

  72. Monkeys and strippers are both on deck.

  73. Fannie and Freddie being wound down..over time

    Timmy G talking to the Liesmann guy on CNBC shortly.

  74. Cyan

    Please note my comment to Patrick above. Those two silver dimes were "worth" a gallon of gas 37 years ago, and they are "worth" a gallon of gas today. They really haven't gone up at all! Nobody got rich by holding silver all that time. But they haven't gone down either, and that's the whole point. Basically, my PM stash just represents a bunker full of food and energy, with far better storage qualities than the real thing. There will be hellacious peaks and valleys along the way, but long term, on average, they should maintain their "value" of precisely one bunker full of food and energy. I don't expect to get rich off them.

    If you really want to get more wealthy, at some basic level it requires some trading. You need to take advantage of those peaks, valleys, cycles, etc. You need to buy low, sell high. This is full of danger and requires some degree of experience, skill, and luck. You tend to acquire that skill and experience the hard way, by taking some losses. But the trick is to find something that works for you and your own temperament. For some, it's the day to day stuff. Watching those 5 minute charts. Others, myself included, find they do much better with far fewer trades, working with much longer term trends. And it doesn't matter what it is, metals, tech stocks, bonds, whatever. If you can make two or three good decisions per decade you can do pretty well.

  75. Cyan

    As per your second point, while I'm sure those coin shop owners are taking care of themselves on the side, and I'm sure a really nice coin occasionally walks home with them in their pocket, on a day to day basis I don't think they run a business that way. The business model is to buy coins at a small discount and sell it at a small premium, and just do it over and over and over and over again. That's how they make their bread and butter.

  76. @Cyan, Art, anyone worrying about apocalyptic scenarios
    I'm not sure if everyone is aware that in the Weimar Republic the Gold-Silver ratio went from 16:1 to 160:1, in October 1923, with worries of a communist revolution.

  77. One of the stripper posts mentioned a massive OTC derivatives position: if silver futures gets up to around $34, then supposedly JPM will suffer serious losses.

    If it's true then I guess we should see a blitzkreig increase in open interest near that key level.

  78. Oops, 2011 minus 1964 is 47 years. But you get the point.

  79. sugar and oil up this morning already...

  80. Max Keiser says silver whistle blower Andrew Maguire has new bombshell information

  81. All the coin dealers I use put away some PM's every month, like clockwork. They do this for a living, its like breathing, they see, read, talk everything.
    Their job is to broker large quantities of PM's and take their little commish and thats their pay. They use a portion of said pay to stash the real "cash" just like us.
    Now where are those cute little bears?

  82. Blythe is throwing the kitchen sink again

  83. e73, amazing that as soon as gold and silver poke their heads north there is a harsh sell-off eh? :)

    I WB is for real, today would be another fine day to show their powers. A bounce off $30 and a close strongly above $30.50 would make a great weekend gift.

  84. I just had a thought; who besides us shrimps trying to buy silver so as to get something for our worthless fiat would be desperate to hoard silver? It's so clear- any company/industry that must use silver in their products. These companies all have buyers who keep very close tabs on all critical resources for which they have future requirements. I imagine some of these must be big companies and can buy a lot of silver for storage. So it isn't just Sprott et al seeing shortages, and if I was abig company I'd be buying like mad.

  85. I'm thinking she'd better crash silver through $30 in a meaningful way or it could be a long day!

  86. Blindweb, thanks for the link to the Keiser interview. Encouraging for PM bugs... a bombshell ... with manipulators going to jail? I can't wait.

  87. Guys, thank you all for all the replies. Sometimes stupid sentiment goes though with me and I need a few things explained. Just placed another order to increase my silver stash. Turd, thank you for providing this great blog.

  88. anyone think we'll see one more big dip down today?

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