Sunday, February 20, 2011

And Away They Go...

11:30 pm EST UPDATE:
The metals are stronger than mustard gas tonight. I have a last in silver of 32.95 and gold is 1395.
Knowing that the Death Star is closed tomorrow is killing me so, to pass the time this evening, I cranked out another xtramormal movie for your viewing pleasure. I hope you find it entertaining.

I'll check in at the usual time in the morning. Turd out.

Well, we're off and running in what may be the most significant week of PM trading in recent history. We've opened flat to slightly higher this evening. Since the "issues" are on the Comex, don't expect a lot of fireworks overnight or tomorrow. On balance, I'd expect that dips will be bought and rallies will be sold until Tuesday morning.

First, here's an updated CRB chart. We've recently picked up so many new Turdites that perhaps I should link to this first:
As you can see, the general commodity rally continued this week. This is the devastation our leaders have wrought. It will only get worse.

Next, here's an 8-hour gold chart. With all the hubbub over silver, many have overlooked the slow, "swiss stair" accumulation that is readily apparent on this chart. Fundamentally and technically, gold is poised to spring higher. The final hurdle looks to be a close above 1390 and then, maybe, 1395. After that, its straight back to the old highs and, from there, $1600 by 6/10/11.
And here's a reprint of a chart from Friday that you must fully consider:
Finally, silver.
There are many things I could say and an almost infinite set of possibilities for how this week may play out. Until proven otherwise, your best strategy is still to BTFD. If I were Blythe (and believe me, I am very thankful that I am not), I would have been covering some shorts on Friday. One, this helps tourniquet the bleeding but two, and most importantly, it frees up my ability to "re-short" sometime this upcoming week. The question then is...where will the EE attempt to raid?

I mentioned last week that, since August, silver has rallied and corrected 3 times. From those corrective lows, the rallies have been about 38%, 25% and 24% trough-to-peak. Applying that same math (which, as you know, I like to do), $26.50 + 25% = 33.12. It is this area, somewhere between 33 and 33.25 that I would expect Blythe to act. Don't get me wrong, she may not. She may wait. She may have even lost the ability to effectively raid. However, I still feel a raid is coming. We must be on the lookout.

In any event, as mentioned above the best strategy is still to BTFD so the next question is: What are our possible entry points? Well, here's the best I have to offer as we are in unprecedented territory:
If things really get rolling, the area around 32.80 might attract some light support, too.

So there you go. Here at 7:00 pm EST, I've already got the PMs rallying at 32.75 and 1391.50.
This situation just begs for another xtranormal video of Blythe and Ruprecht strategizing for this week so  maybe look for that later tonight.
Keep the faith. Buckle up. Things are only going to get more crazy. TF

ps: As we enter this extremely important week, you absolutely MUST MUST MUST take time to read this:
Thank you, Dan, for taking the time to write it!

pps: Uhhh...I would say this is pretty important. It must be for Harvey to post on a Sunday!

ppps: And this is by the request of our valued reader, TurdleGG.

pppps: Our man flaunt has taken the time to transcribe the main points of Eric King's interview of Trader Dan. Thank you, flaunt!! We are all very grateful.

"Turd, here's the transcript.  I transcribed up to the point where they started talking about gold.

Eric: Joining us now is Dan Norcini of  Dan right away we're gonna talk about silver multi-decade closing high.  Hit almost 33 dollars here on Friday closing near that level up almost 2 1/2 or roughly 2 1/2 dollars for the week what are your thoughts on silver?

Dan: Hi Eric again pleasure to be with you this week as always.  Silver again awesome very impressive week powerful performance as everybody no doubt is aware of by now.  You know looking at the charts it put on a heck of a close and really came in yesterday and today with some really strong pushes which is what really where we got most of our gains this week from.  You know we had a good day Monday coming in we had a good strong up day but boy I tell ya come Thursday and Friday you had awful lot it looked to me like short covering going on or some short was in big trouble because that market went up at such a rate.  And it went through resistance levels at such speed and such force that the resistance levels didn't even appear to have any resistance left in them.  That's how impressive the move was so uh, you know on the chart basis when we're looking at that thing you know we're kind of in rough new territory up here because you know we haven't been at these levels in 30 years Eric.  And as you and I have talked about before when you're going back and looking at price charts and you're trying to sort of draw out maybe some resistance levels on the chart, when a market is making 30 year highs, a lot of things have changed since 30 years a lot of the players that were trading back then are no longer playing uh you know a lot of things in the world economy... Everything has changed so I don't know how much credence you can lend to technical levels that are drawn from the 30 year chart but having said that we really have to go off something so what I'm looking at with silver is trying to make some price projections as far as where this move might carry, where it might run into some chart resistance and where some support levels could emerge on this if it tests back some, and based on what I'm seeing here, it looks like we might have some resistance up around 33 and a quarter, 33 dollars and 25 cents, 33.50 somewhere in that general range.  Um if we push through that my goodness this thing's gonna go to 35 pretty quickly.  Downside support we've got a very very good support around 31 dollar level right now.  I'd say even 31.50 there's some light support there on the chart. One thing I think we need to keep in mind when we're talking about silver Eric, if what we think is true what is happening if there's a major short in this market that's being squeezed that's in trouble, the dips in silver or any price setback even on an intraday basis are not gonna last very long.   So we're gonna watch the price action and sorta see what develops around that front.  Generally, what'll happen I wrote a little bit about this on my commentary today at mid day.  What'll happen when a short is trapped in a market and somebody is pushing it, you know they're looking to get out and try to minimize the damage that's already occurred to them.  They've already suffered great damage and now what they're trying to do is kinda stop the hemmoraging stop the bleeding as best as they can.  So whenever an offer comes in that's got any size to it, so in other words let's say a long is trying to maybe take some profits and book out and they've had a good position, they'll say let's take 50 contracts off or 100 contracts or whatever they decide to take off they put it in as one order.  Anybody that's trapped is going to look for a large offer so they can hit that thing and get out because you know they're trying to get out of the market.  And the problem is that you know generally there's not a lot of offers on a market that's moving up at that speed so what'll happen is these guys will hit the offer very quickly it'll disappear or if the market sets back a bit they'll step in front of it very quickly and try to hit the offer before it gets filled or gets disappeared.  So I think we're gonna watch that and see if that's the kind of pattern we're gonna see or the price action we're going to see in silver as we move into this next week but for now let's kinda keep an eye on the 33 and a quarter level.  Of course we have to move past today's high around just shy of 33 but if we push through that I think we'll run up to around 33 and a quarter, 33.50 and then how we handle that level will tell us whether we're going to go to 35 real quick.

Eric: Dan I do want to add in here legendary chart analyst Ralph Acampora in an interview on King World News did talk about silver specifically and the fact that you were just chatting about the old support levels not really applying after 30 years.  He said the people just aren't around anymore that were in those positions so you have to be careful so I think you're doing the right thing giving that information to the listeners to look at which is the stuff you're pointing out.  I want to bring up this piece up with James Turk.  He was talking about a short squeeze in silver and he pointed out, he listens to metals wrap each week and he said "I refer to the insight Dan Norcini provided in the KWN Weekly Metals Wrap namely that silver is trading above all its important moving averages."  You were saying that last week Dan.  That was one of the reasons that we took off from those levels so that was a good call on your part and James also says here, "short squeezes usually end up with a rapid escalation in price, meaning this could be the big one."  So there's potential here Dan you're saying, for this to get pretty ugly and disorderly for the shorts?  That possibility exists?

Dan: Oh yeah it definitely exists.  You know when you look at the extent of the move so far already, when you're talking about for instance the last couple days in silver you had, really Eric you had almost a 2 dollar and 50 cent move in just two days.  You know you do the math on a contract one silver contract 5000 ounces you know it moves a dollar that's a 5000 dollar move that's a big move.  And you know when you start talking about stuff like that, that is not an insignificant amount of money for a short to be bleeding when that market moves against them.  So you know just consider the amount of contracts that are held short in this market and you can see the trouble that these guys are in when this market continues to move higher.  And James makes a good point though too and he has a very good grasp on the fundamentals that you know the physical market of silver as well, is when you have a market that's in a backwardation structure or generally leaning in that direction though too it tells you that the demand is very very strong for that product, the real product.  It tells you that buyers are willing to pay a premium to get the stuff NOW.  I mean that's what a backwardation tells you in a market.  You know they say, "Look, I want it, I want it now, and I'm willing to pay up for it."  And of course when you have that kind of demand in the physical market it's gonna be reflected in the commodity market.  I mean it's just that simple.  And so when these markets push up and they start taking out these moving averages and they start violating technical resistance levels, you know in our modern markets which are based on momentum that is gonna pull in the hedge funds I mean it's just that simple.  These guys are looking at the markets that are trending because they want to push a market that's trending as far as they can in that direction because frankly that's where they make the majority of their money.  You know hedge funds really don't make money in choppy markets.  Markets that are consolidating or range trading back and forth within a defined top and a defined bottom.  They really can't their algorithms aren't set up to maximize profits as a matter of fact they tend to get chewed up pretty bad in those markets.  So when they find a market that's trending boy they're going to come into that thing and push it for all its worth because that's where they're going to make the big money from.

Eric: Dan obviously you and I have stayed bullish during this entire move along with James Turk, Ben Davies and others.  We had the move up to just above 30 dollars toward that 31 dollar area we started to pull back, you and I were saying this move was not done.  You were bringing out support levels and encouraging people to get long on that dip down there.  Part of the reason is we're looking at the big picture on this Dan and trying to give the listeners and the institutional people out there a feel for which direction this thing is going to go and surely this move wasn't over because we're going right through like a hot knife through butter through 31 dollars and here were are near the 33 dollar level.  So we're going to keep trying to do that for them as we go through this move."


  1. Silver up 42 cents already,burn EE burn.

  2. Turd,

    Asked Trader Dan, but have not gotten a response yet.

    Can you assign a percent probability of silver becoming disorderly to the upside this week? What percent chance would you assign to $35? to $40? to $50?


  3. Turd, this post is a classic example of why your followers don't want you to change much if anything when you revamp your website. You have laid out logically, with humility and humour, just exactly what you are thinking right now. Fortunately for us, "what you are thinking right now" usually translates into profits for us soon thereafter!

  4. When you take all of the madness going on in the world currently with no long-term sustainability in the derivatives markets, it is a wonder that these markets are this orderly... especially with that interview from Trader Dan on the weekly wrapup... lotta room to run.

    I think that once silver gets "the attention of the public," things are going to get very interesting. I have a feeling the guy who said this when referring to problems about the market is going to be feeling the pain extra hard...

    “Belief in a coming Flash Crash is Chicken Soup for the Underinvested Soul,” said Josh Brown, money manager and author of The Reformed Broker blog. “They aren’t so much expecting one as hoping for one – so they can rationalize buying into a market that’s left them behind.”

    Anyways, we will now march towards $50 and beyond in silver, and 1600$+ for gold. $35 is imminent for silver as gold has ground to make to catchup to its recent highs, I don't see how silver doesn't participate and possibly break loose from its algorithmic buddy.

    The Gold to Silver Ratio is at its support last touched ~15 years ago at ~42:1. If we continue to see this physical silver shortage to play out, look for there to be a large gap down in the Gold to Silver Ratio, as there is a lot of room to run.
    This will translate into the $50 silver while gold is making its run at 1600, yielding it a better investment.


    There is also a Revolution going on...
    Restore the constitution and sound money.
    Looking forward to wild times,
    This community is priceless.

    Scott J

  5. With Libya burning (oil producer),Bahrain (strategic just of Saudi) falling apart,other middle east states waiting to erupt,along with German Elections saying no to more EU bailouts,2 Irish financials in the Brown stuff,America a wasteland of debt,etc, absolutely anything could happen this week and probably will.Would be interesting to know physical Gold spot premiums in Libya at moment.

  6. Looks like several of us asleep at the switch again, and posting comments to the old post after the new one was already up. That's OK. I betcha Turd Town Veterans know to always go back and check the end of the old before moving on to the new.

    I always do, but then, I'm hopelessly addicted!

  7. Anyone interested in Au/Ag mining stocks, Bob Chapman goes into great detail on what to look for when choosing a company. Very imformative video. He gives out some picks too.

  8. Cris: That's a toughie. Really putting ole Turd on the spot...
    Let's do it this way:

    $35: 40%

    However, IF we reach $35, then:
    $40: 10%
    $50: 2%

  9. Everyone MUST BE SURE to read the post of Trader Dan's that I linked at the bottom of this note.

  10. Went to the local coin shop yesterday and picked up a tube of Eagles for my kids since it was their birthday, at the party I told my old man and his brother.. they still give me the look like I am soft . Kids love to play pirates with them, they are only 3.. LOL

    Once again thanks for the Turdalicious charts

  11. Turd, I BTFD on oil a few weeks ago - the day you said you liked sugar and oil as the two laggards. Well I took the pain but held on. Now making money and can set the stop at breakeven.

    I wonder if you might like to comment a little more on oil, given the strong interconnectedness of PMs/USD/oil.

    This analyst is someone I've followed for some time - he's an excellent, dispassionate voice. Here he is talking about oil:

    Here, he talks about, essentially, the end of the Great Keynesian Experiment:

  12. Very interesting Turd, thanks for taking a tough question.

    Frankly, I am a little surprised by your relative pessimism.

    While I agree $40 and $50 are outlier prices, esp for THIS week, I would have thought you might be even more bullish about $35. fwiw, I would say that $35 has about a 2/3 chance.

    Any other prognostications... place your bets, as it were.

    Best of all though, we shall see, one way or the other.

  13. Cris: Even though I think Blythe is "running out of bullets", my personal history is replete with events where I thought all looked well on Sunday only to have the EE rip my heart out by Wednesday.

  14. The Turd sees the 24-hour gold chart above and :)

  15. Nice one Turd,
    OK finished compiling all the Wynter Benton posts and made a few observations that anyone who is trading based on Wynter Benton's statements should read and digest. I am speaking in general but also to Mr. Hamster who bought into a little misdirection by WB and friends.

    This is not an indictment or saying they are shady but they are running psy ops and all is fair in love and war.

    My reason for bringing the subterfuge to light is I am damn sure if JPM is taking this seriously they have already figured this out.

    Oh yeah, and WB stopped by and left a comment on an earlier post today.

  16. Amen TF. I'm confident the beast, I mean Blythe, wont go quietly. They have more resources and tricks than we can imagine and if in doubt, they will lie or change the rules. I wish the goal posts were in concrete, but I believe them to be only on velcro so they can be moved.

  17. Hi Turd. One of the fairly recent Turdites. I was searching but didn't really come up is anything on how you set your stops. Being fairly new to trading I was wondering me if you could point the way.

  18. The CME report show an additional 2K OI, that it did not show this am. Some drop off in March IO but Fed and May are up.
    I'm still nervous though, can they really hide a failure to deliver other then cash settlement?

  19. Chris,

    I'm going to assign a probability of 0-100%. Only hell knows what's going to happen. I always assign closer to 0% because that's just how life is. It's never easy for me, so I assume it, even though it sure looks lined up to happen from all the research I've done.

    By the way, someone in another comment string had asked, "What is the significance of Tuesday?" It's Presidents Day. Sigh... So I have to wait 37 hours before we see how things play out, though London doesn't have President's Day...


  20. Thanks for the oil chart, Turd. Spot silver at last Friday's highs!

  21. Scisco,

    Screw stops in the precious metals unless you're shorting.

    Just sell strength and buy weakness and that way you'll always have plenty of cash to make moves. Hold a core of each position that you don't trade out of and you'll do great.

  22. @Cris

    "Frankly, I am a little surprised by your relative pessimism."

    A good trader is humble enough to take all the scenarios into consideration, just in case Blythe gets some extra printed fiat to play with..

    Saying that, silver has just this minute broken last week's high.

    BTFD - if there are any?!?

  23. Question, it appears that price of Ag / Au is rising in Asia at the moment, how will this impact contracts established on the Crimex? Are they trapped until it opens or can they hedge on other exchanges?

    Would love to see some of those graphs with dots that Dan wrote about.

  24. I just need to know - do I buy more silver like right now, or wait for Blythe to raid it down to $31?

  25. Badu,

    Unless you're loaded with cash and looking long-term, wait for Blythe to make her move. I want to see her raid it down to *** $18-23 ***, though I don't think it's likely given what is going on now. If it doesn't move down far enough for me, I'm going to plan B. Supplies! Plan C is getting out of where I am work-wise and more supplies!


  26. @Badu Dressario

    My 2 cents. Don't chase the price higher. Wait for a dip, even if its small, and then cost average in. There's plenty of time yet in this secular bull to build substantial positions.

  27. Silver just hit 33 and Gold just hit 1395...

    You could say its a hot start after being open for 2.5 hours in the asian markets...

  28. I like the silver movement tonight, but how much does it mean? 32.99 at the moment

  29. Nice little pop there, just touched 33.04!

  30. Turdle GG

    The twitter thing is really easy. Just go to and set up an account just like you've probably done a thousand times before, do a search for JamesGRickards, click to follow him, and you are done. Couple minutes tops. Then anytime you go to, provided you just leave yourself logged in, all Rickards little tweets are right there. Great stuff. Links. Awesome. He's a very active tweeter too. Sometimes several per day.

    And I'd be very remiss if I did not mention that the Great And Powerful Turd is on twitter as well.

  31. I see we're also bumping up against $4.45 on Copper again, I know that number has some significance to Turd in relation to capping actions for Silver. Turd, is that still a number that worries you, if we go below? Any other numbers for Copper we should be watching for?

  32. My thoughts were see what happens on options expiry and first notice and thought maybe we would be hard to the downside those days providing a good entry point... can you tell me if my thinking is correct.

  33. I can't get past Cris' comment "disorderly to the upside".

    "Yeah, Silver? Sweetie? You know I’ve always liked you. We’ve had some laughs over the years. But I have to tell you. Lately, what you’ve been doing? Hot. And I mean, HAWT. Ive never seen you like this before. And to be honest, if you want, you know… to get a little disorderly to the upside? Well, I’m up for it, you know? Just sayin."

  34. Worth a read:

    When gold hits $2000 it will probably be confiscated in the US..

  35. I just have to say being new to silver, it's worrying me because nothing is following the normal playbook so I'm lost here, in the weeds, and have a bad feeling about making a decision or something major going nova the wrong way.

  36. Harvey's info about the lease rates is not quite accurate. The rates are indeed skyrocketing but it's really hard to tell the difference between the colors for the 1 yr and 1 month lines on his chart. This one is better. The rates are going up, but the 1 month isn't over the 1 year:

  37. Badu,

    I would not plan on any particular outcome on expiration. Read Trader Dan's new piece.

    If we are in the middle of a short squeeze then just buy whatever dip you are provided with like Turd suggests. Use his supports as reference.

  38. Badu-

    You mean, you are concerned about making a boatload of money on silver? I'm sure there are lots of folks willing to take that worry off your hands.

    Just kidding, join the crowd, we are all in uncharted waters at this point....but Captain Turd seems to have a pretty good compass, and the Turd Herd is as good a place as any to keep tabs on what are the high probablility events in the Au/Ag world.

    The Few, the Proud, the Turd Herd.

  39. Pining-

    You are too funny. I'm out all day, just figure I'd check the charts before turning in, and whammo! Silver is going into ridiculuous speed! Wow.

    Does anybody know a way to check cotton prices overnight? I'm hoping that my cotton got on the silver train.

    Kiwi (crying because he sold his AGQ on Friday)

  40. Badu said
    "I just need to know - do I buy more silver like right now, or wait for Blythe to raid it down to $31?"

    If we knew, we'd have our own blogs!

    Seriously though, seems like the consensus building here in Turd Town is that if you are talking physical, that you are going to hold a good long while, then just go ahead and buy it already. You won't regret it. If you are talking short term trades in options, etc, then timing is tricky indeed, and about the best you can do is hang on every word you can get from guys like Turd Ferguson and Trader Dan, make up your own mind, then pay your money and take your chances. Good Luck!

  41. Kiwi,

    Cotton is not trading right now to my knowledge.

    Question, I am a NZ citizen, same with you?


  42. This comment has been removed by the author.

  43. And here we thought things were going to be relativly quiet today. Its not starting out that way

  44. A personalized oil chart for Turdle!!
    I love it!!

  45. Well, we're over 33.12 already on a "slow" day... I guess the backward Asians don't believe in American presidents... DAMNIT Blythe, I need you to bring the metal down so I can buy more!

  46. Dear Turd,

    Have you seen the live revolver map on ?

    That thing is absolutely fascinating. If it doesn't eat up a bunch of bandwidth or endanger the anonymity of visitors, you should try getting one of those too!

  47. Here's my technical chart for silver. $34.50 looks like an immediate target with two supporting uptrend lines in the low 32's.

  48. Blythe, et al., will soon become very irrelevant. True supply/demand will launch silver prices beyond the touch of any price suppression schemes. Also, silver will drag it's very suppressed brother (gold) up with it, but in a slower fashion. It's quite easy for the U.S. government to suppress gold when it has way more than any other entity. Gold will have it's day when the U.S. ponzi is finally up like when Madoff's came to an end. It's good to own both silver & gold because no one knows when that final day will come, and you want to make sure you have yours.

    To all that are wondering if they should wait for a price drop & buy the dip. I think that logic is statistically irrational. You should buy when you can. Trying to time the market is for fools.

  49. Louis: That is an amazing summary! How long did that take you to compile? Thanks for doing it.

  50. Back to "When to sell?" I am on pretty much the same page as Dr.J and I think it was JimmyTheHand. I consider myself a cycle investor. PM's will have their day and then it will be time to convert into other asset classes... but maybe not entirely.

    PMs are a store of value and a medium of exchange. They are ultimately worth what they will buy you: farm, income property, paid-off house, Caribbean condo, trust fund for the grandkids(in gold-backed currency, of course)...

    As a target, I see $200 silver, based on $3000 gold and a 1:15 GSR. When? Not for a while, I hope. I need time to trade for USD to buy physical and mining stocks. I am trying to pile on the latter as quickly as I can while they are still cheap, then let them appreciate 10x over the next few years.

    Like you, Dr.J, I also trade options on SLV to build capital, and I appreciate the cautions I have been given here. I will be very nimble with those, especially as we approach MAR 1. But, man, do they offer some leverage!

  51. Hey Turd, I'm working on writing the transcript for the silver portion of Dan's commentary on KWN for those who can't hear it. Can I email it to your or something for posting or do you have another suggestion where I can put it? If anyone else is interested in transcribing any of it I'm going up to 15:25 when Eric says "Let's talk gold."

  52. Turd: Can you tell us what weapons the EE may employ in the future if this starts getting out of hand? If their raids are hand grenades, what are their bombs and tanks? If they take off the gloves and start breaking the rule of law etc. what could that look like? I just want to prepare myself if they bust out new severe tactics.

  53. Take a look at graphic artist Ben Garrison's new creation....

    "Banker Vampires have a lot at Stake"

  54. @Prize Fighter - Blythe looks very disturbed :-)

    Anyone taking odds on the revolution contagion moving into Saudi Arabia?

  55. Turd,
    About 4-5 hrs incl double checking. I felt it needed to be done in case someone tears them down. But mostly for someone stumbling around looking for info doesn't have to spend days wading through through broken threads here, several yahoo boards and my site.

    Open up your lousy website again or I am going to start calling you names.

  56. Flaunt, thank you very much for transcribing it. By doing so, you allow pretty much anyone in the world who has the ability to run google translate (built into chrome) to read it in their native tongue. Additionally those with hearing problems can make sense of it. I love KWN and I'm glad you're doing it, I hope you can find a good place to post. Thank you.

  57. Louis, TPTB will have an interest in tearing things down. Have no doubt about it. Thank you for the great compilation.

  58. Flaunt: Can you email it to me when finished? I'll try to post it in its entirety.

  59. What's your email? I finished the silver portion of the conversation.

    Watching Trading Places... Good movie to watch before the action starts up again!

  60. kiyotei,
    I think we are seeing the seeds of the second American revolution this week in Wisconsin. I have zero doubt that the contagion will spread world wide. This is a beautiful thing we are witnessing. This is as beautiful as that recent movie V-for-Vendetta... the people as a whole are rising up and saying enough. There is no race, language, sexual orientation, or nationality to this revolution. This is humanity rising up against those they (or their parents) put in charge through coercion, fear, ignorance, or whatever the case. Those in leadership positions of government have much to fear world wide.

    I put 100% chance that the House of Saud will fall within 5 years. The reason will be due to global imbalances of trade in combination with the people feeling chained by their King's kingdom.

    The day America slips into anarchistic panic is the day that I cry a tear of joy, for my native people have finally awoken. This is a beautiful thing, what the man in Tunisia sparked ... literally sparked with that match and lit himself on fire.

  61. Flaunt, try tfmetalsreport[at]

  62. I said I was going to write up a post about trading XAG and XAU in the spot (i.e. FX) markets. Over the weekend I have had cause to rethink this and wonder what purpose it would serve.

    I know that many of Turd’s followers have an almost religious devotion to their gold and silver holdings. I guess that many such people live in the US and see what the corruption of the political and financial elite has done to a once proud, world-leading country.

    So, with that said, if you do want to enter the highly leveraged world of spot trading, you will have to do a mental self-examination. Are you capable of putting aside everything you believe about the world and where it’s heading? If you can’t do this, you must avoid trading highly leveraged instruments (FX, options, etc.) Yes, your world view will probably be correct, eventually. But, between now and whenever “eventually” arrives, you will lose all your money and become bitter. You will then miss the big move when it comes.

    Please, please, please read Trader Dan’s fantastic piece called “Some thoughts on Analysts and the Silver market”. If you cannot adopt the mindset that Dan is describing then you should never trade.


    OK, so you think you want to give it a try? You think you are mentally tough enough? You think you will be able to close out a losing position when silver drops a dollar or two, and that you’ll remain dispassionate and logical about it all? Well, I bet you won’t!!

    I thought I was a calm, rational person, with lots of academic success and professional experience. I even had a three year career as a professional trader for a Wall St investment bank (in an obscure strategy called “risk arbitrage”).

    After that career ended (nice work, Dick, trying to catch the falling knife on real estate!) I struck out on my own, determined to master FX and futures. No doubt the lure of quick riches through massive leverage was attractive.

    I read every notable book about trading and traders – more than 50 of them. Then I started trading and made every mistake that the books told me about avoiding!

    I have since found out the secret that authors, advisers, newsletter writers, etc. all fail to tell you: until your own money is on the line and you start making the classic mistakes and losing your money, and until you ride the emotional rollercoaster that coincides with your P&L, you will not and cannot learn to trade successfully.

    Finally, remember this: it’s often said that 90% of traders lose. Why do you think you will be in the winning 10%? The odds are truly against you. I do happen to believe that at this time in history you do have a higher chance of success if you are trading the long side in gold and silver. But it could all change in a flash.
    Will you be able to react?

    I constantly battle with myself and question why I should be so arrogant as to think that I can make money trading when most people don’t. Over the last 3 or 4 months I have dug myself out of a large hole – thanks very much to Turd for his help! – but hopefully will have the strength to give it all away when/if my current PM trading success ends.

    By the way, I’m not just a trader. Thanks to all I’ve learnt from Turd and his disciples, Santa, Sprott, Rickards, Butler, ZH, etc. I also now have a nice hoard of silver, and mining equities.

    My thinking on holding physical (despite the fact that I hate it that I can’t sell it in an instant and that the bid/ask spread is so wide) is purely profit-minded. I think there is a non-negligible chance that the physical price of silver could do a moonshot, and that somehow the spot market and mining stocks will, probably because of rule changes or new taxes, not fully participate in the move.

    Now, let me write up some PMs spot trading basics and I will try to post it tomorrow.

  63. @B: You really think it will take 5 years? I anticipate a serious blow to our oil supply but it may be a mixed blessing and force us to get busy with alternatives. I'm hopeful for a peaceful transition in the U.S. without anarchy. I have faith in the American people and our nature but I'd be happy to see the top 1% get their dues.

    Of course, if SHTF, I have a backup plan including an escape route (and alternatives) from my apartment over the mountains to the desert on back roads. I have a bug out bag and arms to dig in.

    From an article I read earlier today:
    "Spontaneous order is the natural emergence of order out of seeming chaos."
    Worth a peek...

  64. Thanks for the comment Turdle GG, I look forward to being educated!

  65. This comment has been removed by the author.

  66. Love the new movie Turd... Made me feel like I was watching a cut scene for a video game... Tense!

    I sent you that email.

  67. wow!!! Have you all seen the blog post on SilverGoldSilver that has totally devoled into some crazy anti Israel, anti Jesish, racist rant out of no where???

    Of all the sites I read, I feel like I'm seeing people freak out on each other as the market collapses and the PM's go up.

    Remember that goldhamster dude on here? He got everybody all pisses off at each other. I can't read on hear all the time, so there might be some other douchbags who has done the same things before, but whatever...I just keep seeing these fuckep up problems

    What the hell is soing on people? Let's not start blaming each other about whatever...that's the kinda shit the Left would love to have us do to make us kil each other...

  68. Ian: I monitor this blog pretty closely. The is no free speech here in Turd's World. If I deem something inappropriate, racist or otherwise offensive, its gets deleted. Period.

  69. Again, thanks Turd for all you do. You make the bowl circle in the right direction, depending on what hemisphere your in.

  70. Mr. Turd...yeah, I know you do, and rightly you should...I've seen you state that before. (BTW geez I just read my post and saw way too many grammatical bad! lol)

    I appreciate your reply though to my post, and the reason I put it up was because of the messed up stuff I was reading on SGS's site.

    I just couldn't believe SGS was saying the things he was saying out of nowhere that were so crazy, and he has been a seemingly reliable source of info on your site here as well as his own.

    So I just wanted to say that what he posted and then what the others comments were was just....well.....hard to say. I don't get it.

    Makes me wonder if what's going on is causing people to flip out and lose it.

    I don't want your site to devolve into that...maybe you can learn things from people in that manner one way or the other...but I think we all know we see that on other sites like ZH w/ all the aholes that post on there, and I wouldn't want your site to end up like that.

    That's why I asked about SGS's site tonight. To see the rhetoric on there about Israel and Jewish people just shocked me a way to be honest. What the hell??? That's not what this was supposed to be about right??? Or am I totally wrong?

  71. My suggestion would be if you want to talk about that take it to SGS's site. Turd's been clear he doesn't want it here.

  72. Ian, not only are you totally wrong, it is you that is being offensive towards SGS by mischaracterizing his criticism of Israel's persecution of the Palestinians and blatent warmongering as racist.

  73. flaunt...

    got ya...

    and I have...I guess I thought I'd ask on here if anyone else had read what was going on over there, because I was really shocked about it.

    But you're right...I'll leave it all to his site and let it go at that.

    Thanks man! The Turd rules! :) And I appreciate all on here big time!!!

    Can't wait 'til Tuesday :) lol

  74. Someone could snag a December 2015 futures contract at 32.65 right now with March 2011 at 33.09 and there are no takers. That's a discount of 44 cents for a contract that delivers in 4 years!

  75. James...

    I'm done on that...

    thanks Turd and Flaunt.

    Can't wait 'til Tuesday :)

  76. I am sitting with a grin on my face watching silver rocket.

    I was just thinking if the shortage in physical silver is made official then people(investors) would look to the next precious metal alternative which is Gold. Can we safely say that Gold too is sitting on a recoiled spring?

  77. Ian nice posts over here too love it! LOL

  78. Ian, You've done your best to trash and mischaracterize SGS here, now you're done.

    How about trying to defend your nonsense on SGS's blog instead of bitching about it here.

    I'm done now too.

  79. I think maybe what Ian is getting at, in a sort of round about way, is that Turd's World has become a refuge of sorts. As so many things such as our institutions, our communities, even formerly favorite websites seem to be heading straight off the rails, Turd's World, so far, has kept an even keel. And I think we are all thankful for that.

  80. please read my above comment in the context of physical delivery where in the investor would be happy with his investment only if he can hold it with his hands.

  81. Regarding the Backward Asian situation ... I think there is an extreme fear of counter party risk right now. Its getting to the levels of 2008 and that is why people are not even willing to consider a "discount" if you want to call it that on silver being delivered four years into the future.

    I'd jump at this opportunity to buy at a discount. I mean, regardless of price I'm still buying physical on a regular basis. I only hold fiat for a few weeks max if waiting for an entry point. If no entry point comes, then I force myself to transact at whatever price it is. I do not jump however at this opportunity, because I believe that counterparty risk is the biggest problem with the entire US banking system now. Whenever you have a bank on the other side of the transaction or with their toes in the water, you know that there is: 1) "mark to imaginary" price practices 2) Extreme leveraging 3) Federal Reserve backing it (usually explicitly, sometimes implicitly) 4) A lack of moral responsibility to fulfill the contractual obligation(s)

    So to me a 50 cent fiat discount is worthless. Hell, if it was a 50% discount I wouldn't do it.

  82. Someone on ZH called you the Silver you think it will stick?

  83. Eric, James, and SGS...

    Eric is right actually, and man I appreciate that you got what I meant even though I see now tht I obviously didn't state what I meant on here the right way, lol. Glad you got it though, and thanks for stickin' up for my poorly stated post :) Always the voice of reason and great info which I have appreciated very much!

    Flaunt was also corrent, and if all will look back on the thread they'll see I agreed with him and left it at that.


    that wasn't what I meant. And if you go over to SGS's site and read what I posted (prior to seeing these other replies to me on here) hopefully that will explain things a little better.

    Like I said...I agreed w/ flaunt, and Eric was also correct.

    It's all good here as well as SGS's site to me as far as I'm concerned.

    If you go on SGS's site you can totally see my contact info, so I'm always cool w/ anyone who wants to email me and trade info or talk about whatever. No bigge at all.

    I think I've been more than cordial on here about asking for info and trying to give info as far as it's concerned w/ PM's, etc.

    Maybe I stepped in it tonight after reading SGS's post.'s been a Tampa/Daytona 500 drink fest for 2 days so far, LOL...cut me some slack.

    Funny thing is that like I've said...although I'm a rookie on these sites, I feel that Turd's, ZH and SGS's are the 3 sites I like to read right away all day long!

    So hope all this smoothes things out w/ everyone :) cool?

    Still can't wait 'til Tuesday! lol

  84. Hold on! so now, far from being "done" Ian is posting as Save_America1st and sort of saying that he didn't mean what he said.

    It's up to you, but I would suggest you delete the offending posts.

  85. Go silver! You good thing. Seems like the EE is defeated, at least, for now.

  86. The "wall" at 33.12 just broke after several attempts. 33.18 now.

    Darn this looks good.

  87. Thank you flaunt for the transcript...yeoman work there.

    Trader Dan said if we go by 33.25, 25 is next.

    Damn we just hit, market gap in FOREX. What's up with that?

  88. Is my chart broken or did we just shoot to 33.38?

  89. James...

    not at all I said, I have 2 gmail addys, and have never held that back. When I first added myself on here, asking questions, etc. I cleary stated that not only was I "Save_America1st" but was also "Ian"...just depends on here which gmail adress I was logged into at the time I tried to post comments.

    Ask Eric...I divulged that right away...immediately, because he's been one of the cool peeps on there who has replied to my "rookie" questions from day 1! LOL (appreciate that dude).

    I didn't think it was a big deal unstil SGS said he thought I posted something on his site as "anonymous" tonight regarding all this BS. So I looked on there and tried to state that whoever said anything as "anonymous" was not me. That's why I also stated then to all on here that I have 2 names on here depending which of my email addys I'm logged in as. That has been specified quite a ways back and I'm sure that can be verified, so don't get all whadded up about it. lol

    As far as "sort of saying that I didn't mean what I said", well, no...that's not it either. I said I appreciated Eric's trying to clarify what I said. I can definitley clarify further what I was trying to say personally to you if you need that. No problem.

    I guess at least to you it didn't come across all that "PC", but hey's not like anyone can't read everything else over there that I was talking about and not get what I was trying to say.


  90. 2 AM EST - FUBM starts... This is going to be a wild week for sure.

  91. up 7.80 to 1396.90
    Silver up .71 to 33.37

    is it on like donkey kong once again??!!

  92. You guys, this is so sweet, i am savoring every moment.

    Just started futures trading Jan 1, and after having lost 50% last month, I was about ready to call it quits and close up. But finally, I feel like I've climbed out from the depths of Hell.

    Even if I have to go back to Hell, I've been there before.

  93. Ian & Save_America1st, Yes, Cool, totally cool.

    You might be better reading this again when you're sober instead of continuing to dig your hole.

  94. Breakaway gap...I think.

  95. I concur syk. I'm hoping to get up 5000-10000% on my investment based on the WB rumors. That would be something else.

  96. James...

    now logged in as me "Ian", which is also me "Save_America1st", just so you get it that I have shown all on here and SGS that I'm honest about both ID's. "anonymous"ers have everybody all wee-weeing themselves, huh? LOL

    Well I'm me on both ID's like I said before...just depends which gmail addy I'm logged in as, because my blogspot and twitter ID is "Save_America1st"

    I've read everything, and don't think I need to restate any of it anymore. I'm cool.

    I think it's all good at this point whether anyone else does or not.

  97. Save_America1st & Ian stop digging and keep your eye on the silver price.



  98. How about some nice 90's alternative music to keep you awake and smiling through the night as you watch the Asians execute another FUBM?

    SILVER - By 90's band - MOIST (David Usher)

    Sing along now...

    Everybody wants
    Everybody says
    Everybody begs in time
    And you [Blythe Masters] will be the first to fall
    Every feeling will dissolve
    *** WE ARE SILVER!!!!!!!!! ***

  99. Louis,
    I tried to find WB's comment today. I could not find it. Am I braindead or something?

  100. SilverSurfer,

    I live for my dream and a pocket full of gold.

  101. I like that...very kick ass!

    "WE ARE SILVER!!!"

  102. Congrats Turd on the success of your blog! I have followed you on ZH, and have
    been here since day one at your blog, but this is my first time commenting.

    Boy are you ever right about the end of the Keynesian experiment, and the destruction of
    our economy and way of life. I have been keeping track of my household expenses since 2009, and am shocked by the rate of inflation in this country. For 2010, my cost of living
    jumped by 8.38%, against the "official CPI" rate of 1.5%. So far in 2011, my overall
    rate of inflation has accelerated to 2.04%, or about 13% annualized. And in February
    alone, my food bill has jumped 3%. This is why your call to invest in PM's is so important. We're just trying to preserve our wealth.

    If anyone is interested, I have posted my "Personal CPI" numbers at

  103. @sierra_hpbt. Got to this link and scroll to the bottom for WB's latest update:

    The raw data can be found here:

  104. I have never dealt with options in my life, so I have to ask a newbie question -

    When you speak of "rolling a contract into the next month", what does that really mean? My best guess is as follows:

    Let's say I buy a contract for March delivery. The contract would allow me to purchase silver at a certain fixed price, say $30. In order to obtain the contract, I pay the current option purchase price, since the contract is, from my point of view, a call option on 5000 ounces of silver.

    Now let's say I want to "roll it over" to a May contract. To roll the contract over, I have to perform two transactions. I would have to sell the contract for March (probably, but not necessarily, back to the option writer) at market price for the option. If the price of silver has gone up to say $35, then the value of my contract would be at least (35-30)*5000 = $25000. After completing that transaction, I would have to purchase a new option for May delivery.

    Have I understood correctly?

  105. @jack, awesome link about the gap up.
    @Leroy, my sentiments exactly. Although, I'd be cautious about acknowledging the fact that I traded on what might potentially be considered insider info. Not sure what the 10b rules are but I feel much safer saying that the fundamentals are w/ us ;)

    Thank you so very much. Much appreciated.

  107. ZH discussing where we are

    "Silver takes out $33.10, hitting a fresh 31 year high, as the relentless short squeeze leads to more body bags, and the only flight to safety currency is now the non-dilutable one (with gold on the verge of $1,400). Only $20 more to go until the all time Hunt Brother record is smashed - one/two more revolutions should do it; even better: hopefully the CME hikes margins next week: that would bring $40 silver 24 hours later. And on a more somber note, please join us for a moment of silence in remembrance of the great, the legendary, the soon to be departed Blythe Masters whose most recent zero margin, infinite PM short contraption has just sang its swan song."

  108. @ Louis,
    Much fun reading your work. I to have been thinking about the timing of Maguirs statement, reading the Butler, Turk, The Turd, Sprott, SGS, and many others and coming to the same conclusion that we are going to witness the perfect storm with silver. If you have any pull with Blythe, a nice run to 100.00 would be much appreciated before they decide to short! lol.

    the Dots are connecting and the stars are aligning. I went fully in back in 2003 with silver after reading Butlers book. It has been 8 years now. My physical is sitting waiting and hopefully with my May 38.00 calls I will never have to sell the physical for many years.

    Louis, Your time and effort is much appreciated.
    I just found about the wynter group this past week. Lots to consume and digest. I can see this thing blowing up with this perfect storm scenario. Just hope the wynter group doesn't decide to short before I sell of My options. lol! You, Turd, and SGS are the salt of the earth. Again thank you!

  109. @turdle gg

    I get what you're saying. I've done my homework and have a strategy worked out already was really more interested in hearing basic strategy of someone else so that I could expand my view of how others play it... that being said, you're absolutely right that its not for everyone, plus its not something you wanna put any more $ into than you'd be comfortable speeing go down the drain. Maybe later ill hit you up once I've got my plan rolling and we can compare notes. Thanks.

  110. Morning all, in the UK so get a bit of a head start to most of you! - just BTFD at 33.30 - silver now pushing 33.50 again as I type. Buying pressure is relentless, and this on a day where the COMEX is closed! - short definitely looks to be in trouble here...
    Read Dans CSF article which was very interesting - what chances to we realistically give to this happening??
    The week of truth as potentially arrived!

  111. @ turdle gg
    Forgot to mention, its actually good that you changed your mind on doing a write-up...I wouldn't want it on my conscience either if I held someones hand while they walked into a burning building. :)

  112. This is so huge; PM's taking EVERY currency to the woodshed. Gold:
    - aussie up 19
    - yen 1150
    - euro 9.80
    - swiss franc 15.56
    - real 34

    And right now Turd is sleeping through it all, lol. Printing money while catchin z's

    Can you imagine the gap ups Tuesday in TRE; SLW; gpl, etc? If you are short anything PM-wise over this three day holiday, you are so very very fucked.

  113. 1402 and 33.5

    Got USD??

  114. Pat,

    The Turd doesn't sleep. He rests, briefly.

    Everything you have heard about Chuck Norris can equally be applied to the Turd.

  115. It's not just USD; USD is actually up vs. other fiats.
    Gotta get rid of that dollar-centric viewpoint, there is a bigger picture.

  116. Nice silver chart; one take-down that lasted like a nanosecond- whoosh right back up.
    Gold chart- they didn't even try, straight up. Looks like this hard-on is lasting more than four hours; still, I don't believe I will call any doctors, me likey.

  117. Just made my first buy of XAG (small position). It took 36 hrs to open a forex account with OANDA, about 1 hr to deposit some funds via Paypal.

    Watching and waiting. Jeez, just when you *want* the EE to attack, they melt into the shadows.

  118. must really make Blythe sick watching it go up like this for a whole day without even having the possibility of intervening because the comex is closed ...

  119. Second take-down attempt bought even quicker than the first one in silver.

  120. Silver seems to be facing 33.50 resistance

  121. The strong price action this morning makes me suspect that TF's 1600-by-June prediction will prove correct. I think he's somehow felt the inner pulse of the market.

  122. Gold very stable with a constant walk to the north,,

    Silver morew volatile but on the way to the sky as well..

    Happy Days

  123. I just rolled out of the rack. Needless to say, I'm pleasantly surprised by the prices I see. Very, ver nice.

    A new poster named "inflation dude" showed up overnight. Be sure to scroll up and read his post. Very cool info.

    I'm off to get some donuts for the little turds (LTs?). I'll have a new thread in about an hour.

  124. how much is The Morgue losing for every dollar up in silver?

  125. UGRev

    Don't know about The Morgue in particular, but as far the big shorts in general you can see some aweful big numbers discussed over at Jesse's Cafe, which in turn were getting the data from Harvey.

  126. Someone earlier mentioned gold's strength across currencies. Just thought I'd share a site that I use for that perspective. Don't think it does the same for silver though.

  127. @Eric. Holy Schnikies!!! that's some big moola. At least to me.

  128. Expect big traffic today, Turd. You've been linked on!

  129. Eric,
    Perhaps a Freudian slip rather than a typo...
    "Awe-full" might be just the right term.

  130. Just broke 33.50, woo hoo!

    Itching to trade, but I guess I can just pop popcorn and watch it rise....


    Not from NZ, but I've been there a couple of times for long driving vacations trips on both islands, loved it, and have thought about it as a SHTF fallback location.

  131. Anyone worried about this triggering a K>0 swan event. I just hope the miners join the fun tomorrow.

  132. I believe Canadian exchanges are up and running today, correct? I think my sources on that are 15 min delayed, so I should be able to check some miners shortly.

  133. Nope, not getting anything canadian. Not sure why.

    Anybody out there in Oh, Canada! maybe could help us out with the action in some silver bellweathers like Silver Wheaton, Pan American, First Majestic, etc?

  134. Hi Eric,

    Nope the Canadian exchanges are closed for Family day.

  135. This comment has been removed by the author.

  136. Just looked at the Toronto exchange, and they seemed to be closed for "Family Day" today.....hmmmmph...

  137. Updated the backwardation spreadsheet. Seems to be getting worse. There's now 2 dollars between Dec 2015 and March 2011!

  138. I can't wait to get this party started. Is it Tuesday yet?

    The enemy.

  139. +1 $ again today..crazy rallye

  140. Well, hello Mr 33.60. Nice to meet you!

  141. "Family Day"? OMG! That's even lamer than "President's Day".

    My tinfoil hat is sparking a bit now. This whole thing blows up right at the moment when huge numbers of people are frozen out?

  142. I think we have some highly relevant exogenous events going on:

  143. For those of you who bought out of the money calls, we may have a very nice surprise Tuesday AM if the volatility spikes up due to the wild price movement and broader market instability.

    BTW, I added some Fib extensions (if I did it right) to my chart and it predicts resistance at 34.40 and 37.50. I'd love to see the hot knife/butter thing.

  144. Just a thought, but, what if whoever owns shorts is now frantically buying silver, not in the hope of covering those shorts, but in the hope of creating a blow-off top? Anything that rises as rapidly as silver right now is incredibly suspicious to investors. Fear and greed are, as ever, the two main motivating factors in any speculative market, and once greed has been topped off with a ridiculous increase in price, it's only natural for fear to get the upper hand, creating more and more skepticism, thoughts of bubbles popping, and so forth.

    I mean, were I a large player with an enormous amount of shorts, and an insatiable wish to keep prices of silver low, I'd play it hard, buy in ridiculous quantities (which, in case of emergency, would also serve to cover my shorts) and once market sentiment is reaching a level of critical skepticism, use the opportunity of a few major sellers to weigh in heavily with both what I bought and whatever I can create in new shorts to start a selling cascade.

    No idea whether that'd work though.

  145. Anyone noticed the spread between SLV and Silver spot? The usual gap has been .75c to .85 cents. The price at 10:04am os silver sport is 33.64 and SLV 31.91. Huge GAp.


    yours Truly.

  146. lol southpark

  147. bori - U.S. markets are closed today thus SLV is not trading

  148. Fellow Turdites, Family Day in Canada is not a national holiday. Only the provinces of Alberta, Ontario and Saskatchewan celebrate it. Family day occurs on the third Monday of February. This holiday was intended to celebrate the importance of families and family life to people and their communities.

    Now, you can all stop laughing eh? Tomorrow is going to be fun!

  149. I have a new thread for you.
    My goodness, gracious... look at silver go!

  150. I'm blaming you turdites for refreshing repeatedly and knocking it offline now and then. please stop, so that I can keep seeing the price of silver myself. nah, keep at it. It's a signal to the EE! 'the people are watching!'

  151. Forex markets are open: spot silver XAG/USD has serious wood: $33.7430 as I type.

  152. eToro is the most recommended forex broker for new and pro traders.