Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Turd's Mailbag

As we wrap up another day, I thought it might be fun to give you a sampling of some the emails I've received lately. There are some that I honestly couldn't answer as they required knowledge that was outside of my area of "expertise". As you read through them, if you see something you'd like to address, please place a comment in the section below.

Hi Turd,

Please allow me to add my voice to the growing chorus of devoted readers to your blog.  You provide a most useful service that is beyond my limited intellect to describe.  I sincerely thank you for it.

The link below is to a blog that I receive Tuesday through Saturday as a subscriber to a Casey Research publication.  I am almost certain that it is available to non-CR subscribers as well.  You may already be familiar with it.  It is Ed Steer's Gold & Silver Daily .  Ed lives in Vancouver and speaks with Ted Butler frequently.  Ed's e-mail address is edsteer48@shaw.ca .  He is a real gentleman and is quite informed about his subject.

Thank you, again, for all your efforts.  I will make another contribution to your cause soon.



Best regards,

Phil







Turd:
Thanks for the great work.  Years ago I read a study by the Chicago School of Business (I think the article was in Stocks and Commodities or something like this).  I trade this signal a lot...only buy if above 28 dma...sell if below...turns out gives a very high return
Basically you trade for the 28 day SMA....a lot of analysis showed this was viable...could expand if you want in any case look at the HUI
See the HUI dropped below the 28 SMA until it found a bottom...now it is trading sideways...and slowly up...translating this, gold/silver will trade sideways for perhaps 2-5 more days...then the HUI will attempt to break through the 28 dma (usually on a strong up day)...this is the buy signal...the sell was when we went through the 28 SMA....
see a longer time frame chart (1 year)  when the HUI breaks back through the 28 sma...we are off to the races again  ...very reliable signal...the time to buy is now as we are moving sideways and up  John



Turd,
Following is the message I tried to get across to this Wynter Benton character on Yahoo, but for some strange reason the msg is not appearing. I'm sending it to you ... If you find anything of value in my opinions, please let others on your blog know too.
Contradictory statements ... you're making contradictory statements, Wynter.
Lets put this in perspective.
1] You were earlier saying that the financing for your mass purchases of silver contracts will be available only in the first week of Feb; and that the launch date of the silver rocket is Feb 8. Now you're saying that the silver price did not dip further yesterday because your group is buying already, and Blythe knows you're buying and that you're gonna stand for delivery, so she can't risk overkill -- is that right?
2] If Blythe is aware of your buying, she also knows that your group is not interested in taking delivery, but willing to settle for cash premium. In that case, she would, in fact, go for overkill to really scare the paper longs into relinquishing their positions at much lower prices. JPM and other trapped shorts could then liquidate their positions & minimize their losses. Considering the amounts of free cash JPM has at its disposal, why would Blythe give a damn whether your group is buying at this stage or not.
3] More importantly, what is your purpose in broadcasting your plan on the internet? You could simply buy at dips that are coming your way so easily and frequently, take your premium & pop a champagne. Why alert everyone, including Blythe, and unnecessarily increase your cost of acquisition ? Why relay to Blythe that if silver is anything below $ 40, you can corner COMEX yourselves [your words, not mine]
I'm a PM investor myself, have been accumulating for years, and I'm totally fed-up with these perverse, psychotic, greedy manipulators.
If what you are posting here is the genuine thing, I can't wait to watch these manipulators throw fits [one can already see their desperation in these daily takedowns].... on the other hand, if this is all a sham, well, then you're even worse than them. Amen. V



Hello,
I am one of the many who have turned to gold and silver as an investment and continue to do so.  I have financial background but I am just out of school and I don't have the experience that you clearly have.  I understand the macroeconomic reasons for investing in hard assets like precious metals and have been doing this successfully for several years now. 
However, reading your blog leaves me realizing that there is so damn much that I just don't know.  I don't mean the technical factors involved.  I mean the practical reality of things...the manipulation in the market that keeps trying to over-run the fundamentals.  I know that JPMorgan/HSBC are behind the manipulation, and I know they are doing this through short-selling, but I want to know the real mechanics of how this is happening.  I somehow doubt WSJ or CNBC will be doing any exposes on this soon.
Where can I find out more about exactly how these markets are manipulated.  I feel like most of my resources will simply describe the manipulation as a given and not really explain it...you refer to it as Blythe and the monkeys beating down the price, but exactly how.  I'm not asking you to take your time to go into Manipulation 101, but if there are good sources with this specific kind of information out there, I would really like to read them.  I don't doubt the existence of manipulation for one second, but I like to know exactly how things work.
Thanks for the work,
Jeff


Hi TF...

I just posted this at Zero Hedge. I thought you might be interested to know that Northwest Territorial Mint is among the companies short of silver...

Dr. S.
-----------------

I just returned from NW Territorial Mint in metro Seattle on a little silver gathering mission.

NWT Mint buys, sells, melts and mints silver under their own name and for Pan American and others.

They told me they are almost out of silver. At one of the biggest private mints in the U.S?

Fortunately, the spot silver prices were DOWN so I could buy more silver than expected.

So we have a serious disconnect here. Shortage of real silver and, if price is any judge, an apparent excess of paper silver.

My advice to anybody thinking of buying on THIS DIP: get the order moving NOW!! This was my personal confirmation of those stories from around the world that dealers are short of silver. Even my favorite mint is short of silver.

Hang on, the ride is getting exciting right up ahead where we roll into the loop-de-loop segment.


Hello, TF.

Just thought I would pass along this video I found of Webster Tarpley (he writes for Infowars.com), talking on Reality TV.  The interview is well worth the time in my opinion, as he talks about how this is a move to have Egypt rely on the UN more for financial dependency (they aren't connected enough).  He gives some interesting theories about oil prices and describes the puppet the mainstream is trying to put in place (elduribi).

Thought I would send it to you, as it has a lot of good economic information tied with political nonsense with a fresh perspective.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1USdMUWbIdo

-
Keep up the good work, I appreciate what you do.

-
Scott J



Don't ever let the shitbirds get you down, Turd.  You are the best thing to happen to the Truth since ZH.  You explain things in a way that newbs and novices understand; I have a couple of friends who are reading you, because ZH is too much, Harvey is more about contracts, etc...  YOU ARE REACHING EVERYDAY PEOPLE AND HELPING THEM GET IT!!   Don't underestimate the significance of what you're accomplishing here.
Nobody expects you to have a crystal ball.  You have been right more than anybody I've found, and goddamn close when you aren't.  You also don't make excuses or try to spin shit when you miss.  Keep it up, Buddy.  I will re-up again in three months.  It is the very least I can do.
JB


TF, I have been doing some research into copper looking to buy physical. I do have Au and AG but like the look of copper bars and at today's prices would make great presents. My question regards the incredible disparity between physical and paper prices. As an example, a 1 kilo bar of copper runs about $25. OTH 2Lbs of paper copper is about $9. What gives? What is the real price of copper? And is this not a preview of future Au/Ag price disconnect? Rey


Turd,
I'm fairly sure that you are familiar the the short and long term Gold oscillator published by Chuck Krew, so I wanted to ask what you think about the validity of the upcoming strong buy signal that the study is showing at the moment.

Chuck


Just great stuff, all of it. Please keep it coming.
Everything is pretty quiet tonight. 
Both Harvey and sgs report that the silver comex vaults are smokin so things continue to get more interesting by the day. Keep the faith. Tomorrow should bring a mini-beatdown ahead of this month's BLS BS report. The EE almost always attacks on the Thursday before. The actual number on Friday promises to "disappoint" once again so don't be afraid to btfd. Turd out.






29 comments:

  1. Phil, Turd,

    Ed Steer is a good guy. He's also part of GATA, along with Bill Murphy, Chris Powell and some others. I have met them all and they are all straight shooters. They've been on the gold suppression scheme since 1999 I believe. I read Ed's column everyday.

    BTW, he's from Edmonton, Alberta, not Vancouver.

    I have a feeling the next 6-8 are going to be spectacular for gold and silver. A big thrust upward is at hand.

    Bay of Pigs

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  2. Occasional mailbag is a great idea TF- I am interested in hearing the crew's answers to some of these.

    While everyone is preparing their learned essays and links, I just want to say that "Don't ever let the shitbirds get you down" is being printed out for posting on my work computer- to calm my nerves and make me smile during those 1:36 pm EE raids. Thanks "JB".

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  3. Dear Turd,
    My ginni tingles every time I hear your name. Every time something distant sparkles under the hot desert sun miles away, I think of you. Dear turd, please post me to your mailbag.

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  4. Turd -
    Thanks for the forum!! I too, like Jeff, would like to know more about the actual mechanics of how the EE beats down the price of silver. Do they buy tons of shorts? Can I tell by the number of open contracts on the SLV options page what they're up to? Any info would help my education, including links.

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  5. "V" wrote regarding Wynter Benton: "Why alert everyone, including Blythe, and unnecessarily increase your cost of acquisition ? Why relay to Blythe that if silver is anything below $ 40, you can corner COMEX yourselves". This is the core of the issue- why do this? That question has been my biggest concern about those emails. What was the intended purpose? By saying these things publicly, aren't you letting them know you are coming, thus giving time to prepare countermeasures, THUS putting the entire scheme in jeapardy? And for what? a few more small fish buying physical because of it could hardly be greater value to the project than the damage of letting your enemy know what is being done, and in plenty of time to prepare countermeasures...

    Believe me, I hope she is the real deal as that scenario aligns with my investments perfectly. I am just wary of someone who post over 200 messages (apparently)... because that is not leaking information ,thats screaming information... why? There must be a motivation for her to do this, but it seems to me that reasons are slim:

    1. They need the extra boost from the small-fry to get the plan to work (ok, I'll but that, but would that addition override the massive subtraction that they now know exactly what you are doing and can plan accordingly?
    2. This might be (not saying it is, just that it is a possibility) a hoax by a silverbug, tired of the manipulations who cooked up a scheme he thought might finally put the spike into the great white JPM whale by kicking up an inprecedented fevor amongst the silver believers. That, at least, would explain the meeianic fervor of the 200 messages. Not dissing Benton Believers, just saying it is a possibility that not all is as it might see.
    3. There may be a game we do not see being played through these posts- creating unusual conditions for action- a shortage of physical, artificially low spot price, physical buying frenzy beginning to take shape... but to what end? Who benefits from that set of conditions, what will they do, and how can we see it coming or protect ourselves. Maybe we have yet to find the right question to ask.

    If you are a Wynter adherent, no problem, and certainly no offense intended- I am just trying to satisfy my curiosity about the whole deal. I have FRN's riding on this and while you might say 'they're just FRN's, well dammit they're MY FRN's.

    Thanks, friends. Pining

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  6. Turd,
    Thank you for your great ongoing analysis.

    You often talk about the decline in the dollar and are sometimes frustrated when the traditional inverse relationship between the dollar index and gold does not hold.

    Please see attached link to article by an analyst who shows that in the last two years it has been AUD, not DXY, that has more closely correlated with moves in gold and silver.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/249920-can-gold-and-silver-rally?source=article_sb_stocks_2

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  7. Rui said:

    "Essentially China is running a sleeper silver shopping spree while no one is watching."

    Check this out from June 2010:

    http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/8092/coeur-dalene-mines-agrees-gold-production-deal-with-china-national-gold-8092.html

    "Coeur d’Alene Mines Corporation (NYSE: CDE, TSX: CDM, ASX: CXC) has reported that Coeur Alaska, Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary, has entered into a contract with China National Gold Group Corporation, China’s largest gold producer, for the purchase and processing of gold concentrates produced at Coeur’s new Kensington gold mine..."

    Under the deal, China gets gold by buying and refining Alaskan mine output, without disturbing the bullion market. Too easy.

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  8. Actually it does disturb the bullion market. Maybe not directly, but that's a lot of gold that can't go to the general markets that otherwise would have. Smart move by China, anyway.

    I find it pretty amazing that Apmex sold out of those 100 oz bars. They went quick! And of the ones that are 2 weeks out to delivery, they're presold about 200 in the last 3 days.

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  9. Another thing... Looks like short term silver lease rates and ticking up again:

    http://www.kitco.com/lease.chart.silv.html

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  10. Sumo
    Conquest did a similar thing in respect of its concentrates (containing gold, silver and copper):
    http://conquestmining.com.au/images/conquest---eirei.pdf

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  11. http://jsmineset.com/2011/02/03/chinese-gold-demand-stuns-london-hong-kong-traders/

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  12. http://gata.org/node/9557

    "Cash is trash in China as rabbit-themed gold fills 'unbelievable' demand"

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  13. Can anyone remember the last time you saw Silver trade within a 15 cent range the entire night? Very low volume and no action in the London market...Seems very odd. Perhaps there will be another huge raid today by the bankers. Stay alert!

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  14. I used to get Ed Steer's Daily. Decent discussion of goings on at the COMEX. More concise than Harvey's. Don't know how much is original and how much came from Harvey in the first place. Seems to talk to Ted Butler almost everyday, so if you like Butler that's a plus. Followed by a list of links to articles of interest. Mostly good stuff, but mostly of which maybe I've already seen.

    All in all, a decent daily email to get. But then after one Obama Birth Certificate joke too many I had had enough. I unsubscribed and told Ed exactly why.

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  15. Interesting note about NW Territorial. Seems to fit in with what we are generally seeing.

    On a side note though, Monarch Precious Metals stock of 100's is now UP to 11, from 4 a few days ago.

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  16. New stuff over at KWN this morning from Ben Davies and Gerald Celente.

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  17. Oh, also stuff from Trader Dan, that you can get either at JSMIneset or KWN.

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  18. A reverse knockdown; what is that a knock up?
    Oh, these are really normal "markets" arent' they? I generally don't pay all that much attention to hour to hour day to day movements, but this stuff I must admit is pretty fascinating.

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  19. Wynter

    "If someone is trying very hard to get attention in front of you, do not forget to look behind."
    ........Old Chinese Gold Trader Saying

    Maybe they want all eyes on silver so something unusual can happen with gold.

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  20. Did anyone see Ag just spike .20cents? These markets are a complete fucking joke. Sorry for the rant but this is so blatant.

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  21. Wineguy - and that spike correlates nearly identically to the last two days in time and movement. Check out the 3 day chart at Kitco. Formulaic trading all the way. The ALGOs rule - ride the wave!

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  22. FISD - Thanks. Agreed, these markets are run (controlled) by computers. It reminds me of the movie Terminator. Sarah Conner & Kyle Reese (Au & Ag investors) are fighting the Cyborg (Algo's)

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  23. silver a buy at $26.50 or over $29's, lets see if we can get a buy order filled and get out of this range....

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  24. Ed Steer today-
    "My coin guy here in Edmonton sold several thousand ounces of silver yesterday...and not one ounce of gold. He guesses that his silver/gold sales ratio is about 500 to 1."

    Wynter, or something, has everyone looking in the same direction very hard. Wonder if the old Chinese trader had a point.

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  25. That would be truly sick! I kinda like the fact that a lot of folks are questioning gold atm.. Perhaps time to add some oz's of the yellow stuff... That Wynter story sounds all too good to be true. Or is is just that gold's price is too high for the middle-income people? Makes you wonder as well.. I guess it's best to just own both physical!

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  26. I use to own both Gold and Silver but recently I have sold all my gold for Silver.

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  27. Harvey

    "Notice the silver (standing for delivery) is rising and gold is contracting. The silver longs do not want any cash settlements as they are going for the jugular against our cartel banks..."

    All eyes on silver?

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  28. Not that anyone cares, but just for fun I'd like to go on the record and say I'm taking the Occam's Razor view on Wynter

    I believe it to be legit. Doesn't mean I'm basing my investment strategy on it, but if The Morgue wanted to plant stories they'd use the MSM, not an obscure corner of Yahoo Message Board

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  29. eToro is the best forex broker for beginning and pro traders.

    ReplyDelete