Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Its Happy Tuesday!

Well, I'd say that $1 bottle of white-out was one of the best investments I'd made in a while...

As discussed yesterday, silver and gold both broke out overnight and appear to have started new UP legs in their rallies from Turd's Bottom. First up this morning, lets take a look at a longer term picture of gold:
When all of the great "technicians" were calling a head-and-shoulders top on this chart back in January, they failed to notice one little, yet very important, detail. Notice that the three highs were consecutively higher. Perhaps if the lemming, publicity-seeking shills had slowed down a bit to take this little fact in they might have been able to salvage a tiny bit of their remaining credibility. Alas, it wasn't meant to be. From Prechter to Gartman to every a-hole in between...they all missed it. Please, if you learn anything here at Turd's World learn this: Don't listen to those fools! They will only separate you from your hard-earned cash.

Onto today, Happy Tuesday. Again, its called Happy Tuesday here because of the obvious fact that the EE does NOT like to raid on Tuesdays. Last week was an exception to the rule as the desperation of the moment forced Blythe to take action. Typically, however, the EE does not like to add to short positions today because the weekly CoT survey is this afternoon.
With silver seeming to commence another UP leg overnight, its time to project where we might again run into some resistance. Its very tough to say at this point because there are no clear chart indicators when you are making 30-year highs. All I can do is look at percentages and assume the herd will continue to act in the same manner they have been. I'd say the next slowdown is somewhere between 35 and 36.

Gold is rolling, too. Take a look at the breakout it has made today:
Applying the same line of reasoning and some simple math gives us a new, short-term target of $1440 or so. Ole Santa has long had 1444 as one of his "gold angels" so that all seems to line up pretty well.

Again, in no way should 35.50 and 1440 be considered "tops". I'm just looking for the next level where the metals might take a consolidatory (I just made that up!) break.

As I prepare to hit the "publish" button, gold is 1421 and silver is 34.34. Lets go have another great day!
TF

ps Trader Dan's got a nice chart here. http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/03/4-hour-gold-chart.html I like this chart a lot...especially the squiggly lines at the bottom.

189 comments:

  1. Cheers!!

    Happy Tuesday for All...

    A little something I wrote up last night about silver situation in my perspective...

    Twas the Night Before March, Not a Physical Oz to be Found at the Warehouse

    --
    Let us see where this day takes us!!
    -
    $37 by the end of the week?
    -
    Scott J

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  2. Thanks Turd
    Just the kind of information I need to make an opening bell decision!

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  3. GPL Already up 12%....

    $4.55
    --
    God damn...

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  4. I'm very excited about the gold breakout - the recent trading range has been painfully boring. Looking for a quick move up to $1,450 this week.

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  5. I'm very interested in GPL.

    Do you all think it is "now or never" to buy in?

    Should I wait for a pullback?

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  6. Roger Wiegand at Korelin Economics Report thinks that major resistance in silver is at $35.85. Thoughts?

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  7. htt Turdle GG wrote (regarding hyperlink instructions):
    Thanks CMT, but that's about as clear to me as...that hampster fellow's other ramblings...I'll just copy and paste

    Turdle GG:

    I couldn't understand those instuctions either when they were originally posted — and I already know how to do this. ;-)

    Here's the challenge in showing this: one can't post the actual syntax, because of course it will render, and all you'll see is the finished hyperlink. So you have to make substitutions for the characters that cause the computer to recognize it as HTML code — < > — to keep it from rendering, and then explain the substitutions. Hampster used parentheses characters for the substitutions, which doesn't work well, because one can't distinguish that use from what parentheses are normally used for.

    I'll use brackets, i.e. [ ] instead, and simplify the explanation.

    ------------------------------

    So here's the syntax, in order to produce the hyperlink to read as and link to GoldMoney....

    [a href="http://www.goldmoney.com/"]GoldMoney[/a]

    ....except instead of the brackets, substitute these: < >

    So substituting < for [ and > for ] in the syntax above renders all that as:

    GoldMoney

    Similar to what Hampster noted, I keep the syntax above (with the substitutions) in a text file, then simply copy and paste the URL from the browser window into it, and add the text I want to display it as.

    There's also instructions at one of the blogger help pages here; scroll about halfway down and begin reading after Here's an example scenario:

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  8. JW, your $34.27 looks like a good cost basis right now.

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  9. your 35.00 May calls are almost in the money. My 38's are looking good too.

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  10. GPl en fuego two days in a row; what a runner

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  11. Sumo: Looks like ole Rog is looking at the chart from 30 years ago. Way to go out on a limb, Rog!

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  12. Please, go back to chart posts in "http" format and NOT "https". I am a loyal follower and disseminate links to silver chat rooms in PalTalk that do not recognize the "https" "prefix". Thanks!

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  13. Perhaps this is why Hecla Mining is stumbling:
    The U.S. government is full of idiots.

    http://www.silverminers.com/commentary/wallace/index.php?&content_id=1344

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  14. Turd: the $34 level was significant in the Wynter_Benton posts: above $34, the JPMorgue's OTC derivative losses increased dramatically.

    What chance do you see of a smashdown tomorrow below $34?

    Your call for this morning (up in overnight trading) was right on the money, BTW. Congrats.

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  15. I gotta start thinking about unloading some of that Panther...

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  16. Sumo, its simply 2% above my 1st position...lucky I guess. A third set to open at 2% above 34.27 will increase my holding by another 33% and continue to leave 6% leeway from the average purchase price.

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  17. From Bill Downey:

    While the US Mint overnight suggesting that sales of US silver coins in February fell relative to rather robust January sales totals, the February silver coin sales were still the strongest readings for the month of February of the last 25 years.

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  18. So what happened with OI and physical delivery?

    @sumo Ag @ >$34 = smashdown lol
    crazy times

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  19. Maybe we should call it "Happy Turdsday"!

    My dilemma is deciding if I sell anything or just let it ride..... with the huge overnight moves, the dips aren't equaling the overnight gains, so I'd lose if I was out of the market overnight.

    OK, so it's a great dilemma to have..... ;-)

    I'm thinking I'll wait for the next "consolidatory" phase to start trading again, I find it's lots easier to trade the dips while it's going sideways than trying to catch the silver rocket.

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  20. Well and the fact that Eagles went on a fire sale for 1/2 of the whole month. And there were more days to buy in January. The orders I would assume were probably just a lot larger.

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  21. Turd wrote (regarding April gold):

    ...Notice that the three highs were consecutively higher...

    I already had the NetDania silver spot chart up when I read that, so just for the heck of it switched it to the gold spot chart to see this clearly myself; both gold spot and XAUUSD do show a perfect head and shoulders — so perhaps the idiots back in January just didn't know what chart to use.

    If that's the case, going back to my question the other day (which two people answered that both the spot chart and XAUUSD were fine to use), my hopefully easy to answer newbie question again:

    I don't yet have an account for trading futures, so can you recommend a free streaming chart (NetDania or other), the current month silver, I assume, rather than silver spot or XAGUSD, that is best to follow silver, when I'm wanting to do it on a minute to minute basis?

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  22. As an old desert trader, I'd say don't sell the Panther just yet. When you get a good stock keep getting more and hang on! Most folks let their losses ride and sell their profits quickly - better to reverse that - super hard to buy at higher prices, but it's worked for me. No guarantees of course but it's usually better than dumping a winner.

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  23. @ Don Plata: March silver open interest dropped to only 3,085 contracts, or 14.5 million ounces - not enough to break Comex. May is the next major deliver month.

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  24. Anyone have any guesses or insight into why TRE is lagging so badly??

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  25. Eric,
    I think that Great Panther is truly just getting started. This is one that I would not be surprised to see go to low/mid double digits easily over the coming months.

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  26. @Brian O' Thanks. 3,085 contracts, or 14.5 million ounces - relatively speaking are those numbers significant/unusual? I am curious because of all the attention OI got here in the past week or so.

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  27. Not talking dumping the Panther, just toying with the idea of trimming it back. Yes, I'm more inclined to let it ride for now, but whenever something goes up a lot it's something you have to consider.

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  28. @ Don Plata:

    I think the OI at this point in the delivery cycle is normal, and with more than 40 million ounces in Comex warehouses, there is enough to satisfy demand even if all remaining contracts stood for delivery. Also notice that the Mar-May-July contracts are in slight contango, signalling no squeeze this month.

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  29. All PM bulls lookin like geniuses! Long as print to infinity gov goons gone wild; middle east meltdown, inflation to hyper-inflation, and shortage of PMs for hungry real money folks; it's a slam dunk movin forward to 50 dollar silver by June and Gold? I'll leave that to the more lively gold bulls on the blog!!

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  30. It will have pullbacks Eric.. ..so, I know what you are saying.. ..take some profits ..keep the core..

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  31. I have TRE 8 April 11 calls. Didn't a news story a week ago mention that they are still doing construction at the mining site and production won't ramp up for a while? Silver futures don't seem to be pulling TRE along much. Just wondering if I should put my call $$ elsewhere.

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  32. Ginger, ewc58, and all else for that matter:

    I was clicking around last night and stumbled on something called Caza Gold. The guy who runs Endeavour Silver is Chairman. Very early days situation with some properties in Mexico and Nicaragua. Pure lottery ticket at this point.

    Have you guys seen this one at all in any of those super de duper newsletters you get? Seems interesting to me. Let me know what you think.

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  33. Ginger, meant to thank for that BULM oil info you posted last night. Yahoo had the news but yours was a nice, concise recap.

    Agreed on your GPL post above. No way to ever get a 5 or 10-bagger by getting in and out without a change in fundamentals. Looks like BULM and GPL are at it again today.

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  34. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  35. @ John 97205'

    Thanks, even I got that!

    Eric, if you've already seen a 2 or 3 bagger w/ GPL, you've obviously got some room to maneuver but if not, that time is coming and you might want to hold. Drivers for news flow and good results are in place this year, and GPL has been on the come for a long time. Looks like it has arrived alright. This is the kind of pick we all look for.

    Congrats to GPL owners, a Panther is making you look like geniuses!

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  36. Impact Silver ISVLF us getting a good run, up 7.8% this morning.

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  37. @Eric - I know what you're saying for sure, and it's often good to sell some on a spike up, but almost everytime I've tried that I've ended up buying back and paying more. I sometimes pretend I don't have my initial position - if the stock then looks good enough to buy - well, I do! :+)

    The market sure gets us into funny techniques.

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  38. TRE is under pressure from shorts, who are trying to cover and/or borrow off-market, by mailing offers to stockholders.

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  39. Doc J, while I would not advise about your 4/11 calls on TRE, I do have high confidence in the TRE company, the TRE stock, and mostly, TRE's founder... the esteemed Jim Sinclair.

    Would not bet against him when it comes to gold.

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  40. TD Report on Great Panther
    https://research.ameritrade.com/wwws/common/reports/report.asp?reportName=stocks.thestreet
    Has a target of $4.27 and 37% favorable for 10% growth this year. I'm new at this and up nearly 50% with my GPL now, and holding what I have. Can someone that knows what they are looking at review and comment on this TD report. Maybe there is a sell off because we bler past $4.27. I'd like to think Ginger is right and this one goes to double digits. Thanks Ginger, Eric, ScottJ, Hope I can contribute soon too.

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  41. Even The Turd bought some GPL under $3. Thanks everyone!!

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  42. Jeez, Focus Metals: what is UP there??? Does this count as a "pick" if I don't actually own it? Hopefully someone in Turd Town picked it up on my first shout out, 2 weeks and like .60 ago. Thing is a Roman Candle for nearly 2 months. Look at FCSMF's 30 day & 3 mo charts.

    Damn, I knew I shoulda sold off a kid or something...

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  43. Larry,
    I am looking for a pullback for BULM to get back in. I believe it will be a Panther-like stock up and coming. Jusy my opinion tho! To my thinking BULM is a mini Silver Wheaton at this point and has grand potential!

    Eric,
    I have not heard of Caza ..but will definitely be looking at it now. Oh Gosh-Darn-It!.........there are sooo many that I want a part of right now.. bulm, impact, rye patch, extorre, tinka, tahoe, mag silver, aunff, aslrf...the list goes on and on and one ....Too many good plays.. too few stinking FRNs!!! !!
    :]

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  44. As some sage said, any day that you are not a seller, you are a buyer. So to cut right to the chase, one needs to decide "would I BUY Great Panther or Impact Silver right here, right now?"

    That should tell you what to do, I think.

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  45. http://www.businessinsider.com/economic-warfare-risks-and-responses-2011-3

    This interesting webpage is a study of economic warfare.

    The paper's introduction seems to suggest that the economic events of the past few years were an economic attack on the United States.

    The paper also seems to prognosticate that a t-bond sell off is the goal of the third phase of the attack.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/economic-warfare-risks-and-responses-2011-3

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  46. By the way... ..this link may have already been provided..not sure.. but just in case it hasn't, I thought it was a pretty cool way to catch some headlines and news in the metals world as well as being able to choose a category of the metals and have an entire list of companies displayed showing a bunch of pertinent information. ..Well, just valuable info consolidated in one place:

    http://miningnerds.com/

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  47. I hear ya Ginger.

    Got way too many names going here. Last night I reinstitued my old school method of putting each one on an index card. Tickers, production, blue sky, market cap, any other notes. Then I just keep flipping through them. Helps me keep it all straight. Helps me sense relative value. Which ones get my juices flowing and which don't.

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  48. YAY Turd! ..He's onboard the panther!! :]

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  49. This comments section has turned into a pump-a-thon. Sorry, someone had to say it.

    Great looking call Turd, the news flow out of the Middle East is scaring people into PMs no doubt; probably also scaring the crap out of potential shorts as we're just a single bad news story away from $120 oil.

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  50. Ginger, can't say as I blame you on holding for a dip... or you can always average in and get more lower and such.

    Then again, I'm not a pro, but over the years (after learning many hard lessons) I've developed my own strategy of: think like a trader, act like an investor.

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  51. Jeff, 3085-2833=252 contracts. So likely they've been served. Harvey, in his post last night, mentioned 252 notices were announced. He also mentioned something strange - he believes this 1.26M ounces came from the customer and thus leaves open the question, if this is correct, why they took the silver from the customer vs. the dealer.

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  52. Whats up with CZN.TO?

    Down 8% or more today

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  53. silver getting a bit expensive? maybe a good time to start thinking about that Au/Ag cross over. with Ag getting monetized in India, Mexico, Cali and even Michigan (some local groceries/gas stations etc. beginning to trade in silver) that 2002 Au will buy a good deal of junk and Ag rounds at fire sale prices.obviously not an investor here. just want to survive and watch JPM crash.

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  54. TurdleGG, I owe you one for your advice to me, tried to do this for you last night but ended up hitting preview instead of publish. Anyways!

    <a href="url">Link text</a>

    Above is what the code you need to put in looks like. Simply add your website address instead of url and the text you want to link it from instead of Link text. You should be good to go.

    You can copy the line above and just paste it in whenever you need it. Here's an example of what it would look like in a sentence:

    I wouldn't <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com">link to Zero Hedge</a> for all the silver in the world, goddamn bunch of stinkin' anarchists

    Easy when you know how, give me a shout if you have any trouble.

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  55. Dr J

    If you're a swing trader you can't beat playing options in SLW if you're able to watch the market (although recently you would have done great even if you could not watch the market). Good luck everyone. Hi Ho Silver Away!

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  56. mythblasters

    Well, yes and no. It's a reasonably fair point. Just trying to share info, get others considered opinions. But also talking about whether to sell something. As long as we all assume that the poster owns whatever he's talking about, you should do your own due diligence, etc, then I think it's all fair.

    I get just as tired about hearing about May calls, delivery months, open interest, or whatever. My eyes also glaze over whenever I see the names "Rothschilds" or "Martin Armstrong". Means nothing to me but I don't complain I just scroll on by. No site can be all things to all people but I think we've done a pretty stand up job so far.

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  57. averagejoe,
    Normal pullback/consolidation? ..This is exactly what I am waiting on for BULM and GPL. ..It'll head up again. (I hope:) ..Larry may be right.. ..buy in now and average down on pullbacks..

    mythblasters,
    This is a blog for preparing for the end of the Great Keynesian Experiment? We are preparing financially by buying metals and miners? We talk about the best metals and miners to buy.

    If we talk too much miner stuff ..or miner specifics... maybe Turd will tell us to stop. Does it bother anyone else?

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  58. I'm happy to see my Orko Silver shares coming around today. The reason I bought Orko is 2 fold:

    -Their stellar La Preciosa Ag property in Mexico. Extremely rich ore/high Ag gpt

    -Their proximity to and JV with PAAS

    Orko is one of the more likely takeover candidates in '11, most likely by PAAS. I expect strong performance and will hold my ORKOFF shares this year as long as nothing jumps the tracks.

    Somewhat unknown pick with very nice potential for '11 and '12.

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  59. jfi :

    Us Mint Sales

    Jan : 6,422,000
    Feb : 3,240,000

    2010 total : 34,662,500

    so nearly a third of 2010 in 2 months in 2011 !

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  60. Great ewc58. There's aNUTHER one for my list.

    :]

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  61. Thank you, Sumo, Larry, Stephen, for your advice on TRE & SLW...

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  62. @Eric, I see your point. The "woohoo" posts are tiresome but sharing some opinions on companies seems fair although I see a lot less specifics about companies being passed around than just "what should I do", "what to buy?", "should I sell Panther", etc. and that's what I was referring to.

    @Ginger, you "talk about the best metals and miners to buy?" I see rather little discussion as to the merits of most of these companies, in the last few days that is, and more pumping. Don't get me wrong, there was a time(just days ago) when the majority of discussion was actually on companies; now it's a lot of "wohoo" or "what the heck is wrong with ...."

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  63. myth-

    Yep, folks are excited. Yep, folks are sharing their success stories and possible mining picks. If it wasn't for this board I wouldn't have heard about GPL and made a bucket of money in just a few weeks. And because of this site I took a look at Focus mining, but will probably stay out, not a fan of pink sheets.

    As far as I can tell, folks are also sharing bad news as well, like the issues with Helca.

    If someone is pushing a dog over and over, I imagine Turd and his giant delete button will take care of it.

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  64. @ Don Plata
    You can expect all the OI discussion to resume again in April and you can look forward to it evaporating again the first week of May.

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  65. mythblasters, I guess once the merits of the companies have been discussed and put out there already, how much more is there to say? We seem to like to discuss how our plays are doing as share prices do change more often than fundamentals. I don't know though.. I see your point ..I just don't think we are pumping stocks. Letting everyone know of a good or bad play based on our own successes and DD but not trying to persuade anyone to buy into anything. More trying to get feedback and just have some good conversation.

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  66. Guys, SLW's 2010 Q4 report is coming out on Thursday, right?

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  67. Evidently, sexy miners to Ginger are like sexy shoes to my wife... My wife looks great, but I like Ging's returns a whole lot better.

    Ginger can you please have a word with her?

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  68. With the market we've had recently it's hard to stay away from the "woohoo" posts. Human nature. We're feeling a bit of community here, some common ownership of certain names. Common interests certainly whether the chosen vehicle is stocks, bullion, etc. It's nice to be able to say "woohoo" to somebody because chances are your spouse couldn't care less, unless it means she or he can go shopping!

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  69. Fair enough guys. I didn't mean to harp too much; I used to enjoy reading almost every post on the board but now I read about 20% of them as most of them have to do with a handful of companies, buy/sell recommendation requests, and what I really think are "pumping" posts.

    Thanks for sharing your opinion. I'll continue to monitor the board and filter as necessary.

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  70. Many have asked for some high potential juniors. Here are a dozen Canadian miners that deserve your DD. Not for the faint of heart as all juniors can be very volatile. I put my money where my mouth (I mean keyboard) is and am invested heavily in all of them.

    EPL FCO GBB GCU GNG KSK MAT MOA GEM RDU SND LIO

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  71. mythblasters...

    I hope with the new website, that many of these day trader posts get their own section, because really this has very quickly gone from a useful forum blog to cluttered noise with "pumping" and "buy/sell recommendation requests."

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  72. Is anybody watching the senate questioning Ben Bernanke this morning? These dumb nuts senators actually thank ole Ben for his service to our country like he's a patriot. Wow!

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  73. We also let each other know if we're not so hot on a name. I'm on record here as walking away from both CZN and TRE. I guess we'll see in the long run how that works out for me! Ginger sold her Impact Silver. That's OK, I try not to tease her about it, but it's all in good fun. They'll tease me terrible when CZN goes to the moon. It's OK. That's what friends are for.

    Stuff I mention, I would welcome someone telling me no they don't like it and here's why. That kind of info is sometimes worth it's weight in gold. Maybe pop a bubble that's building in my head.

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  74. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  75. All the GPL fans here should probably start reading Bob Moriarty at 321gold if you aren't already. He recommened GPL at .60 a year and a half ago.

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  76. Marvin said...

    Us Mint Sales

    Jan : 6,422,000
    Feb : 3,240,000

    ....

    Heavy demand. This cannot continue w/o severe supply disruption to industrial silver users. Prepare for higher prices.

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  77. APMEX is offline today, Hmmmmmmmm I wonder if it has anything to do with silver?Or maybe somebody needed a lot in hurry, hehe.

    I find it kinda funny that these guys are sharing the same apartment Im sure they have separate bedrooms, and dont store thier stuff in the same place, that would confusing.



    American Precious Metals Exchange (APMEX)
    226 Dean A. McGee Avenue
    Oklahoma City, OK 73102

    Federal Reserve Bank
    226 Dean A. McGee Avenue
    Oklahoma City, OK 73102

    Nothing to see here, Coincidence only, move along,move along,

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  78. Myth, the vast majority of mining stocks, especially juniors, are not worth looking at.

    Some have only a hole in the ground and a liar at the top.

    Some get punished by the hedgies' ratio trades (long metal, short miners).

    Some are favorite targets of straight-out shorts.

    Some don't respond to metal prices because the company is hampered by some f*cking stupid hedge book (thank you Jeff "shortage? what shortage?" Christian).

    So when mining stocks are responding metal prices, it's important information, useful when *starting* your due diligence.

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  79. urexsi said...
    @ Don Plata
    You can expect all the OI discussion to resume again in April and you can look forward to it evaporating again the first week of May.

    ...

    Why? COMEX has no silver, while demand is rising. That's the story!

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  80. Hey myth, I totally agree with that. Nobody can seriously sit and really read all the posts anymore. Just too many. We all have to scroll and scan and sift and winnow to whatever interests us. I guess some forums on the new site are pretty much baked in the cake at this point.

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  81. APMEX works for me.

    Down to 497 one hundred oz bars in stock. They are probably due for weekly re-supply.

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  82. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  83. We are just interested in Silver and Gold , don´t we?

    Why flooding the comments with Stocks Selling Buying opportunities ?

    Back to the roots ...

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  84. @Gold is King .... I believe they will publish their report at close of trading on Wed. March 2.
    Then on Thurs. they will do it live ... go to their website for all info.

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  85. My theory on those US Mint sales is that dealers saw how much trouble they had getting Eagles for the holidays, so when January came around they thought about what they needed for the year and ordered a shitpile right away. How they hold up from Feb onwards will be telling.

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  86. Sunday I checked , they had 614 100 0z bars,

    and today no more monster boxes of 2011 eagles,

    Id say theyre moveing pretty good.

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  87. FreeBoundary

    That is precisely the kind of thing I keep on my little index cards. And I was thinking the same thing regarding Great Panther vs Endeavour. Hard to argue Great Panther is so undervalued anymore, relative to peers.

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  88. @Gold is King ... oops my bad

    VANCOUVER, Jan. 17 /CNW/ - Silver Wheaton Corp. (TSX, NYSE:SLW) will release 2010 full year results on Thursday, March 3, 2011, after market close.

    A conference call will be held Friday, March 4, 2011, starting at 11:00 am (Eastern Time) to discuss these results. To participate in the live call use one of the following methods:



    Dial toll free from Canada or the US: 1-888-231-8191
    Dial from outside Canada or the US: 1-647-427-7450
    Pass code: 37642529
    Live audio webcast: www.silverwheaton.com

    Participants should dial in five to ten minutes before the call.

    The conference call will be recorded and you can listen to an archive of the call by one of the following methods

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  89. I suppose one could see some of it as pumping, but don't all of us here begin at caveat emptor? Most of the time I see at least some reasoning given for commenter's sentiments. I like the thought that I can pick up new ideas and watch list candidates from this very savvy crowd. But like anyone here I'd never act without doing my own DD. That's part of the joy people who do this feel: why would I leave that to someone else?

    I think the new site's possible support of discussion forums will be better suited to the miner piece. Things certainly can sound canned or phony at times as-is, and sometimes they are. But c'mon, if you're a Turd Town vet, how many great picks have you already seen or made $$$ from?

    I also think TT regulars are rightly conscious of their reputations and generally are looking to do the right thing anyway. D-bags are not welcome here and are quickly ID'd and ignored into oblivion.

    We are known by our word here. As we can't see each others actions, this is all we have to judge: people's words, the reputation they build for themselves, and their track record.

    Turd himself just offered thanks for GPL, that story is a very a good example of how all this can come together nicely for any reader here.
    We shouldn't throw the baby out with the bath water. Use good discretion and DD and you'll make money. Be a dope and as usual in life you'll find that condition brings it's own reward.

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  90. Sorry I had a typo at previous numbers. Here it is again.
    I did a quick comparison of my core miners, AG and GPL, by their ratio of market capitalization divided by the forecasted silver production in 2011, which I use as an indicator of relative strength of a miner.
    The ratio of GPL finally exceeded that of AG today, indicating that it’s time for AG to surge?
    As of 11:10 EST
    FR(AG):
    forecasted production of silver: 7.5 mil oz
    Shares outstanding = 93.83M
    market capitalization=1.49B CAD
    (market cap ) / silver production = 199

    GPR(GPL):
    forecasted production of silver: 2.4 mil oz
    Shares outstanding = 115.6M
    market capitalization= 499.40M CAD
    (market cap ) / silver production = 211

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  91. F (regarding same APMEX & Federal Reserve address):

    Your post (@ 8:19 am above) made me curious, as I've used APMEX.

    This seems likely to be a legitimate explanation (and the final paragraph is a particularly nice touch:

    ...After the consolidation of the Federal Reserve Bank’s operations in Oklahoma City, most of the building remained vacant for approximately four years.

    In the building are the massive vaults in which the Federal Reserve Bank once stored its currency. Beyond the lobby doors, security is provided by a state-of-the-art security system, a staff of armed police officers, monitored access control, more than 100 closed-circuit cameras, walk-through metal detectors and x-ray machines.

    “This building has come full circle,” said Adrian Neal, director of security for APMEX. “What once was built in 1922 to protect large amounts of gold and silver legal tender coins, and later was converted to protecting paper currency, is now once again home to gold and silver precious metal products.”

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  92. Sounds like Goldman Sachs has their tit in a wringer about something. Cry me a river.

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  93. WilliamBanzai7 has plans to design a set of commemorative silver coins with the likenesses of Hank, the Bernank and other luminaries:

    Banzai Mint v1.0

    Production to follow, if there is enough credible interest. BTW, anyone hear anything about the Silver Keiser coins?

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  94. John, Just a tidbit of information I stumbled on . Wasnt sure if it was something or nothing .

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  95. I thought about picking out some 90% coin or sterling spoons that are particularly ugly and trading them in for some pocket cash today. But no. F*'em, it's all silver and it's gonna stay put and collect dust for a while more.

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  96. Banzai Mint 1.0

    Seems like I have more practice to do in creating links in comments...

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  97. Hi Eric, it is great to hear that you are looking at the same indicator for miners. The projection of silver production in 2011 is based on AG's announcement yesterday, so I am hoping for AG to leap forward as much as GPR. Just by looking at this ratio, I noticed that HL is relatively overpriced than GPL/AG and CDE is cheaper (140). It would be awesome if you have suggestion on other miners of similar potential. Thanks.

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  98. I'm thinking maybe it's time for gold to lead for a while.

    Full disclosure: I'm a gold bug. Period. I do silver when I'm bullish and I want some leverage to gold. End of story.

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  99. CD,

    What I do know is that with Northwest Territorial Mint doing the actual minting, it is gonna be a while!

    I'm waiting on some 5 oz Maxies myself and hope things are progressing.

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  100. Forex is getting very interesting.

    Is the short position about to blow?

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  101. I attended a conference in San Jose and one of the speakers was Dr Greg Baiden, Penguin Automated Systems, he has done amazing things in mine automation. I talked to him about what changes he was excited about in the mining industry and he was really bullish on Nautilus Minerals, an interesting lottery ticket of a stock... any thoughts by others here?

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  102. Grrrrreat Panther! http://store.greatpanther.com/

    For those wanting to take profit think about buying some of their
    Rounds directly. You'll be boost their Bottom line and increase your Physical Holdings all in one easy step.

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  103. Market rolling over while PMs strengthening.

    Me likey.

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  104. On filtering: I like the way all the various ways of investing in Ag and Au is here - it got me back into options for one thing and got me big into Great Panther - sometimes the buzz (not pumping) will indicate the stock that's hot - so many stocks have good stories but it's the ones that folks "like" that do well - this forum has been very effective in highlighting those winners for us all - I hope the site improvements won't zap the magic!

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  105. Did gold hit all time high? If not, pretty damn close

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  106. I just took delivery of shipment of 143 rds from NWTM last week that was ordered 12/1/10. Yes, it takes awhile.

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  107. Ooops.. forgive me for backing up a bit here but I had to go away and just saw ecw58's shoe post. LOL. .....Miners sexy? ....Hmmm.. I do love the romance of a good breakout in share price! :D ...I can't help you much though with your wife's shoe deal.. ..I sell dresses and shoes for a living so I'd probably only make her problem worse!! lol. :]]

    I'm going to buy in to Impact again when Eric finally decides to give CZN a chance. I'm only trying to be more stubborn than him here.

    I agree with you mythblasters...I'm looking forward to forums for some of our topics because it will make finding topics each of us are interested in so much easier ...and less cumbersome trying to wade thru unwanted posts. Some of you are above my pay grade for sure and I can understand the eye-roll inducing posts you have to navigate.

    GO TURD...AND TURD'S NEW FORUMS!

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  108. FreeBoundary

    oh shit don't get me started or mythblasters will be all over my ass.

    Generally speaking, my silver producers have done a remarkable job of all approaching pretty much parity on valuation, ie market cap vs production, both current and near term projected. Adjusting for costs as best I can. I think they all have tremendous blue sky, moose pasture, growth opportunities, whatever you want to call it. Hard to value that stuff until you get real close to development so I tend to say they all got some. Hard for me to pick out one that looks cheaper than the rest right now. GPL and IPT no longer qualify as cheap to my mind. I have been talking my book lately about Avino (ASM), but that's more of looking for a pop upon getting production started. Once it gets started I don't know why it wouldn't be valued at least as high as Impact. It's a $3 something stock and I don't know why it wouldn't be $5 easy once they get going.

    Yes I like CDE, for a bigger company, and I own some. Though I did buy a pile of HL yesterday when they held that blue light $1 off special.

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  109. $40+ Silver Eagles for sale. Shoosh! (@ apmex with credit card)

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  110. Ginger

    I'm holding your Impact shares hostage in my account. "/

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  111. While Eagles are nice, I prefer my rounds non-denominational and divisible. Makes my life easier. However HOLY HANNAH! 40.00 FRN's a COIN? Straight .999 1oz rounds are running 38.66 FRNs from APMEX, with CC...wow. I am waiting for a bit o' a dip then headed to the coin shop for more rounds =)

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  112. Free Boundary

    I will repeat though, as I said yesterday, when I do some converting from silver to gold, and gold to silver, the silver stocks across the board still look cheaper to me than the gold stocks, even given the big run up lately, in the face of the gold stocks sleepwalking like zombies.

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  113. The small investor demand has been absolutely ferocious.

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  114. falcon15

    Me too, I like the cheapies.

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  115. Can't wait for the new site with threads.
    Anyway - SSJedi> the only thing that report is good for is to get a glimpse of who they are going to blame for their own taking down of the global economy. Just watching Bernanke getting grilled on CNBC. It's clear to me that the Federal Reserve is going to be blamed for the world wide collapse and "the only way to save the system is to bring about a global banking system like the IMF!". But I digress. Go silver!

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  116. Eric

    Thanks for sharing your expertise. Avino is now under my radar. Cheers.

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  117. FreeBOundary

    Ain't no expert. Just doing my best, trying to make a buck...

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  118. Anybody notice I often end up with two capital letters in a row? My shift key pinky is getting slow. Probably Alzheimers coming on. Gotta clue the wife into where all the physical is hidden before it's too late....

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  119. Eric,
    ROFL. ...That made me LOL ..literally.

    I just took another look at Impact. :O

    Wish I hadn't. lol. Remember that old MTV jingle from the 80s? ...I found myself humming 'I want my ..I want my ..Mmm Pact!

    (ok.. that probably sounds stupid unless you remember the mtv song.. ...and maybe even if you do :]

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  120. Ok gang, I really really need to get to work. It's been a blast. Check in later...

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  121. @ Edward
    I believe gold hit 1430.75 on 7 Dec., 2010. We got awfully close and are threatening again.

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  122. Just finished watching the Bernanke. Partial Summary:
    1. I (Bernanke) recommend more QE is needed and previous QE is fully justified
    2. I recommend congress raises the debt ceiling or "another financial crisis" and "chaos" will occur (paraphrase).
    3. I also recommend Congress to reform the spending and revenue of the USA (aka. austerity - spend less, tax more to pay off debt)
    4. Yes high oil will hurt the recovery
    5. Food inflation is a problem for other countries

    Some interesting questions were asked. It seems some of the congress are starting to get it, although the tone of their speech is far too relaxed. The Bernanke was asked:

    1. Should we go back to a gold standard?
    A: There's not enough gold, it is impractical

    2. Hasn't history shown it possible to run a country without a Fed and Treasurury issuing any debt? (i.e. hinting at the fact that countries are better off with government and not a Fed issuing currency, as there would be zero debts forever - probably the most intelligent question asked during the entire meeting)
    A: When has that ever happened? (as if he didn't know - the answer was when there were multiple currencies in the USA in its early beginnings and governments in various states issued their own currency)

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  123. Every time someone mentions Impact I think "Oh shit don't tell Ginger"

    Ok I'm done now, gotta go.

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  124. I now have a last gold high of 1430.93...

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  125. Hey Eric,

    Nice to see another goldbug here (although I also dabble a bit in silver). Wanted to thank you for the swap tip the other day. I'd thought about it before but your comment got me moving. ;)

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  126. just look at this
    OANDA XAG
    compare to the XAU/USD and tell me how we can still call this a "marketplace". If any of the rest of the AG trading world looks like this...

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  127. How Hilary, Secretary of State, is on CSPAN talking about US's middle east strategy:

    http://www.c-span.org/Live-Video/C-SPAN3/

    "No options off the table, so long as Libyan government turns guns on its own people"

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  128. some words from Ben :

    -FED is not Debasing Dollar
    -Recovery of Economy still under way
    -Full_fledged Gold standardnot practical
    -no significant bubble on the horizont

    Muuuahhaha

    Some story liek the last 30 years

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  129. What are everyone's thoughts on the upcoming SLW earnings?

    ReplyDelete
  130. And now it's Timmah time! Geithner talking GSE reform (Fannie/Freddie)...

    http://www.c-span.org/Live-Video/C-SPAN3/

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  131. UXG finally bouncing again as Gold hit its 1430 area. I sense some mania in the miners now, expecting a pause tommorrow most certainly. Wednesdays following 'buying orgy Tuesday's' almost always slow to a crawl and retrace some.

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  132. Antal Fekete said that silver going into permanent backwardation would be the first signal second of which would be gold going back asswords both of which would mean imminent dollar collapse.
    Now I get a headache whenever I try to understand Mr. Fekete and what possible meaning the basis has, but I learned a valuable lesson about the basis when JPM took out Amaranth in the natural gas pits. The gas contango got enormous first. Stayed there for a long time and nobody knew what to make of it. Now we have the opposite in silver, hmmm.

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  133. Silver bounced off 34.35... old high...

    Whats that phrase again?
    Oh yeah...

    Old resistance becomes new support.

    ...
    I am glad i am not Bernanke.. He was shaking and stuttering throughout the whole process...

    But I have good news for all of you, The DOW is up and CPI is low, we are fine.
    -
    Scott J

    P.S. GGCRF and AUNFF knocking on $1... could this be one of the last trading days under $1 for both of these stocks? GGCRF needs to close over 1.08 to close at a 52-week high (maybe later this week if we keep momentum in silver). When/If it closes over 1.13$, I think it will be poised for a nice valuation... but ask ginger... this stock has taken a while to start moving... hopefully all the butterflies of merging companies are gone and the company can pass its value onto its shareholders. I am also anxiously looking for news on Revett's move to the AMEX (rumored 3-4 weeks from January 15th...)... If this comes it may give the company all the pieces it needs to run. Rising copper prices should help too...

    -
    Anyways...
    -
    Scott

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  134. Anyone else jump on First Majestic selling @ $35/oz. yesterday? I made my first foray into physical with them, bought 200oz. Thanks Turd finding this blog has been great!

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  135. Is it me, or is Brent in Zero Contango now?

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  136. Ginger

    That song is "Money for Nothing" by Dire Straights

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAD6Obi7Cag

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  137. People may want to look at JDN-Toronto it is a SILVER MINE penny stock at .29, they just received a Toronto Listing. It is run by the CHINESE and they are going for a HONG KONG LISTING. You will thank me in a MONTH.

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  138. I trust we're all making a little money today?

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  139. For those that find themselves a little taken aback by Jon Nadler's (aka math man on ZH) comments, such as his most recent rant "silver only costs $5 to take out of the ground...see you back at Silver $20". Read the attached for a primer on real mining/resource issues with silver. Bullion Bulls Canada

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  140. Hey Turd,

    I just did a spot check of the public comments on position limits (Proposed Rule 76 FR 4752) here:  http://comments.cftc.gov/PublicComments/CommentList.aspx?id=965

    I find very interesting that NONE of the following folks have weighed in:  

    David Morgan, Harvey Organ, Eric King, AL Korelin, James Puplava, James Sinclair, Dan Norcini, Max Keiser, Bob Moriarty, Richard Russell, Bob Chapman, Melody Cedarstrom, James Turk, Harry Schultz, Richard Daughty, Chris Waltzek, Peter Schiff, Robert Ian, Peter Grandich, Robert Kiyosaki, Kevin Kerr

    ReplyDelete
  141. Hi Irene,

    Glad I could help. There's so much to think about right now...

    My great aunt was named Irene. She was an awesome lady...

    ReplyDelete
  142. plunjer said..I find very interesting that NONE of the following folks have weighed in:

    What does that mean? Many of them have stated publically they want limits, helllooooo

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  143. Ha! Take me back in time Prize Fighter. ..I was a child bride of the 80s and my husband played this song to death (and all Dire Straits).

    Hey ..it actually fits here.. I want my silver for nuthin' and my Impact for free. :]

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  144. Woof!
    I guess the market likes the guidance they are getting from ANV today. Nice to see a gold miner showing a pulse.

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  145. @plunjer - of the 2800 or so comments, I have yet to see one that was something OTHER than requesting 1,500 to be the position limit.

    On the other hand, even 100x the number of comments may or may not do anything to get the Commission to actually do it...

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  146. Pushed the sell button on 75% of my ANV ........sold half of GPL , EXK, SLW, SSRI. Holding PSLV FULL core and PHYS.

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  147. so how far is it going down tomorrow?

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  148. Economic Analyst

    re: JDN

    I'm going to email it to myself at home as a reminder to take a look. Thx. I love looking at these little guys. I guy can dream can't he?

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  149. Kliguy38:

    Interested in your reasoning. Do you think a correction is near? Just taking profits? Inquiring minds would like to know, if you will share. Of course, that is your decision, but it sounds like some others are thinking along the same lines. Are you converting to physical, or just awaiting a lower re-entry point??

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  150. kliguy38

    Now THERE'S a guy with the nerve to sell. I can totally respect that.

    I guess I'm still a bit too greedy, but the day ain't over yet.........

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  151. @ R Man J, Nadler utilizes reverse troll-ology. S/he is quite bullish on PMs. That's the thing about ZH snark sometimes; not being able to discern sarc comments...but when you're trying to prepare for what will be markedly tough times, one tends to be not in the mood for sarcasm..

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  152. Hi Folks. I think the S&P500 correction I mentioned the other day is very near.

    Not saying it will take silver down because the USD has been such a pig but miners will have to take a beating even if silver doesn't.

    I am not trolling. I think a sell off would be a fine thing so we could all buy in at lower levels.

    Let the games begin.

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  153. kliguy knows his junk. (read his blog)

    I'm thinking of sending him all my money and asking him to invest it.

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  154. miked,
    I keep reading 2 schools of thought on what you are saying. One camp says that the miners will go down with any stock market sell off. The other camp says that commodities stocks will necessarily decouple from the regular market and go up ..given the circumstances of the dollar and world status.

    Thoughts anyone?

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  155. FOAM,(Wynter Benton) the Friends of Andrew Maguire, have joined Max Keiser.

    ""Word has spread, The Highlanders are coming down on their own
    Aye... ln droves of hundreds... and thousands!
    Are you ready for a war? -Bravehart

    ReplyDelete
  156. kli, would you hold oil stocks? looks like you're only holding on to the commodities. kinda

    ReplyDelete
  157. http://maxkeiser.com/2011/03/01/foam-the-friends-of-andrew-maguire-have-joined-the-sla-silver-liberation-army-to-take-down-jp-morgan/

    ReplyDelete
  158. @Himalayas -- the Sprott interview in the links is quite a contrast with the text of the article:

    UBS stragest Edel Tully: "While the market seems to agree that the current constraint on supply is transient, its impact on the notoriously volatile silver price might not be.

    "In the silver market, there is enough silver, it is more to do with a short-term squeeze," said Standard Bank analyst Walter de Wet. "If you're long silver, stay long, but it's probably not worth the risk/reward getting in now," he said.

    "It's not called the devil's metal for nothing."

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  159. Right on F

    And when Blythe launches an attack, this is what we will do:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tr8bZ25uo1U

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  160. You can thank me if there's a big rise, I decided it was time to book some profits and sold some of my AGQ... Hopefully Blythe gets her witch on and pushes it down tomorrow so I can buy back in.

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  161. I cooked up a little piece for my PM family. A couple of macro view things to consider. Long term.
    http://thecivillibertarian.blogspot.com/2011/03/silver-just-btfd-or-just-buy-government.html

    ReplyDelete
  162. Anybody here doing any long term plays? I wanted to suggest to some family members a low-risk and non-obsessive way to play it. I was thinking Dec. 40 calls on silver (futures options) at ~ $2.25/ea for a total cost of $11,250 with a profit potential of $38,750 if it hits $50/oz, or $288,750 if silver hits $100/oz (yeah baby).

    For gold I was thinking Feb '12 1425 options at ~ $120 for a total cost of $12,000 and a profit of $10,500 at $1650 or $25,500 if (when?) it hits $1800.

    Doing the math on that makes me think maybe I should put in a couple of those long term options also, and just leave them be.

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  163. @CD, if you would listen to the bankers you would never buy PM's.

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  164. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  165. Where is my Blythe? I know....I know... BTFD. I'll be patient, but I so bad want to buy some more physical.

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  166. Blythe is running around covering her naked shorts.

    oh... did i say naked.

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  167. OK, after kicking it around all day, I decided kliguy was right and I decided to lighten up on some names.

    Given the market we've had for the past week, and given what the Dow is doing, if you can't find SOMETHING to sell, then you are really and truly drinking the kool-aid.

    Trimmed a bit on CDE, Impact, Panther, EXK, HL, and my baby SLW.

    Thanks kliguy for kicking my butt into gear.

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  168. Ginger,

    The decoupling theory didn't work for me in 08. Stocks are stocks, they're going to sell off with the broader market..

    The story had a happy ending tho. My stuff bounced back nice starting in 09 and I added nicely to my potfolio in early 09 as well. EDR.TO @<$2

    Also, to us Ag may be precious. But to many others it's an industrial metal that will also cause it to go down with an S&P sell off

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  169. Mythblaster is essentially a troll, and only shows up to complain, in this case erroneously, as everyone here links to info, and DD is assumed. But look how many answers s/he got (I know, including this one). Given that many people here hold similar mindsets and portfolios there is bound to be some cheering (and moaning) when things work out or don't. But we should refrain from feeding the trolls. Trolls are to be killed with axes.

    ReplyDelete
  170. Thank you Marcel,
    I understand your point. But (you knew there'd be a but) ..isn't 'this time' different? Different in that we didn't have nearly the lurking disaster with a potential currency collapse...or debasing of the currency.. as we have today. The Fed has seen to it that there is almost no way we can avoid a painful recession/depression or some degree of inflation crisis. To me..that bodes well for commodities 'this time' whereas you didn't necessarily have this scenario in 08.

    You could be DEAD ON however. I'm nobody's expert. I just analyze it using all the variables at our disposal and this time around..what with all the QE and world events..it looks like the way things could play out will be a completely different kettle of fish than in 08.

    Stocks are stocks, yes. But we're not just dealing with a housing crisis this time to melt the markets. We are dealing with a scenario where the only things real left at all will be commodities. I see those commodities shooting to the moon.

    Of course...just my opinion.

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  171. xtybacq,
    My axe was in the shop so I was trying kindness. :D

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  172. AGQ up 2 bucks since I sold.... you're welcome, you're welcome, it's my role to sell so that others can reap the benefits of the market reacting to my selling.

    Sigh.

    On the other hand, I feel like a genius for getting completely out of the "normal" stock market last Friday. Today I would have been bleeding away my PM profits. So yeah for me!

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  173. So... this is "Price Discovery".... thank you silver...

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  174. Ginger - I agree. There is no way out this time, and the Powers that Be are just keeping the Emerald City going, but Bernanke's just the man behind the curtain, and more and more can see that. I just don't know how far to go. We have a fair amount of food, some physical metals, but much of our 'wealth' is still paper, and we have one more child still in high school so we are going to stay in the city for 2 1/2 more years to let him finish. But I am beginning to want to pull it all out.

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  175. Higher highs + higher lows = BULL MARKET

    It's as simple as that.

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  176. kiwi, why get off? bullmarket. btfd.

    ReplyDelete
  177. And that Black Gold, Texas Tea, Bubblin' Crude popped 100.00 FRNs a barrel...*shakes head* 6.00 FRN/Gal fuel here we come...

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