Of course, I may be just a little bit biased. I own June $1500 gold calls. I've also broken one of my own cardinal rules in that I own May silver calls at $43, $44 and $45. They expire next Tuesday. Turd's gotta put his money where his keyboard is. I expect the next 3-5 days to play out just like late February. Feb 17 had a low of $30.55. Feb 24 had a high of 33.75. I'll let you do the math and draw your own conclusions.
Let's start with the gold chart as I like it very much. Note that its moving higher in daily stages, almost a mini-SwissStair formation. Significantly, after each thrust higher, it pulls back and uses the previous highs as support. You can see this progressively higher support below at 1467, 1472, 1478 and 1488. When gold breaks through 1500, a pullback will show support at and slightly below 1500. Perfect. Now, if we can just get it to actually break through...
Silver is funky. Its unclear whether its the reluctance of gold to break through 1500 that is holding it back. What is clear is that its stuck in a rather tight range around the $43 level. On the bright side, it ain't going down, either. You'd think that if The Cartel had any gas in the tank, they'd use this pause to try to gun it lower here. Maybe the sharp rebound off of yesterday's raid has spooked them a little. Hard to say. What I do know is this: You can bet that there are, once again, a bunch of buy stops placed at $43.50+. If you got short yesterday or Friday, you're hanging on for dear life, praying that it will roll over. You're also watching $43.50 very closely. A move through there and you have to cover and retreat to higher ground.
But, seriously, after the PIIG SPIN-induced bounce yesterday, even I didn't think it would roll back over this quickly. Watch 75.35 in the June (about 75.15 cash) very closely.
OK, that's it for now.
TF
I’ve been a long time reader here but this is my first post.
ReplyDeleteHere is a video I created last night and I’m sure the folks here will appreciate this sort of humor. I even give a shout out to Turd. It’s about 4 minutes long.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1UtuX-T8bgw
Me Me Me SIR...... Im First!
ReplyDeleteLove this quote from CNBC's Guy Adami -
"Anyone... Short Silver is Going to Get Their Face Ripped Off,"
http://money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=PR&Date=20110419&ID=13326042&topic=TOPIC_ECONOMIC_INDICATORS&isub=3
Nicely done Silver Swan! I've seen a bunch of different variations using that clip but its kind of like the old 3 stooges episodes they never stop being funny! Thanks!
ReplyDeleteSo I guess the prevailing concensus is that the EE truly has unlimited money? Man, at these levels, the shorts going back to $40, to $35, to $17, must be so underwater.
ReplyDeleteCan this really be happening, or is this theory all BS?
Praying for an up move here as well. I like your bias. Looks like this tight range will break soon. The equities market washout looks to be over for now, an I think that metals can rise now that all those margin calls from yesterday have been resolved.
ReplyDeleteAnyone else seeing an inverse head and shoulders formation in 1 minute silver? It is downward slanting b/c of the trending manipulation, but the shoulders both have double bottoms which looks pretty strong to me... though I don't put much faith in short term technical patterns when manipulation is at hand.
ReplyDeleteP.S.
Oil bounced off 106 to 107.75 in the last 90 minutes. Bullish to say the least.
David Morgan Analyzes a Dollar Collapse, ROLLOVER 1981
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ObNy18dLaAA
2K gold..... by tonight that will seam cheep
Apologies for the re-post but was hoping someone out there had any background info on SMXMF (US) SXG (CN)
ReplyDeleteSamex Mining Corp.
The cartel might be waiting for next week to push silver using the weakness from funds rolling their contracts to the next delivery month. They were likely covering their shorts on Friday. If Feb is any guide, you should see an uptick in Silver price this week (so it should go through 43.40 resistance by end of week) but level off next week.
ReplyDeleteJust a guess.
haha loving the dead fish
ReplyDeletePrice of silver each day Net Dania at 5 pm EDT
ReplyDeleteMarch
1 - 37.76 UP .25 Friday
4 - 38.55 UP .79 Monday
5 - 39.27 UP .72 Tuesday
6 - 39.53 UP .26 Wednesday
7 - 39.65 UP .12 Thursday
8 - 40.93 UP 1.28 Friday
11 - 40.24 DOWN .69 Monday
12 - 40.00 DOWN .24 Tuesday
13 - 40.60 UP .60 Wednesday
14 - 42.11 up 1.51 Thursday
15 - 42.98 up .87 Friday
18 - 43.38 up .38 Monday
As you can see from this chart we have
been up four consecutive days in a
row. The longer we go without a down
day the more likely it is we will get
one and you can expect the EE to hit
hard. I expect the EE to hit hard
today since their intended takedown yesterday and didn't get one. They do not want 1500 gold to be broken. But, all in all this has been the best month since September of last year for PM's.
Let's hope they are losing their power and we continue onward and upward as Turds suggest in his blog post this morning.
Most of this posting was done just before the opening of the Comex waiting for Turd to open the store. :)
Another day with silver up and miners down. I'm tired of the under performance of the miners. Since the start of the move in Aug 2010, not one of the majors (SLW, SSRI, HL, PAAS, SIL) or the indices (GDX, GDXJ) has moved as much as silver. Even SLW--the strongest of the bunch is up only 2.15x since Aug 2, compared to silver up 2.3x. I truly believe that silver is going up much higher, but I see no evidence from either a technical or fundamental level that the miners will ever outperform silver again.
ReplyDeleteCurrently 70% of my portfolio is in them miners, 30% in physical silver. I am thinking of selling all my miners and indices over the next week and moving into PSLV. Any thoughts?
Very well done, Silver_Swan. I find it fascinating how much latitude that film segment has gained...
ReplyDeleteI needed some humor this a.m. and the PO$X fish busted my gut.
ReplyDeleteThanks TF
How close to an objective number should you get before you call it a 'tap', ie. 'three taps and out'? Would yesterday and today count as two taps?
ReplyDeleteWhat is going to happen with the bond market? Does Pimco have the inside scoop on whether the fed is going to do QE3? If they stop QE3, and the stock market tanks, will that money rush into Treasuries? Will this only cause a temporary fall in Precious metals? This is the only thing I see that would keep the PM's from exploding upward.
ReplyDelete(tapping fingers on desk) So...... when do the mining stocks finish puking? This is getting really annoying watching the stocks day after day take a tumble.
ReplyDelete@ Winker: Samex released a bulletin yesterday afternoon based on recent imaging surveys and the shares popped +50% this morning. The news is a little speculative as the buyers seem to be. A good bet would be to book the profits, if you are holding.
ReplyDeletepforth,
ReplyDeletePatience. Don't sell your miners. Folks (myself included) have been buying in the past few days. Why? Here, read this:
http://thetsitrader.blogspot.com/2011/04/is-it-too-late-for-miners.html
Just hang in there.
Yukon
p.s. I'm assuming you do have some physical already. If not, then yes sell some paper and get some before doing anything else.
Seems to my uneducated observation that we need crude to go higher to provide the PM price fuel.
ReplyDeleteCrude has been stuck in a range as have the PM's for the most part.
The S&P news should have ignited the PM's a bit more. They tried but were beaten back and crude actually dropped while the dollar relatively soared at the same time.
Interesting that the whole MENA thing has dropped out of sight. A black swan under water right now and about to pop up soon?
Miners still not confirming move higher in silver spot. I would be EXTREMELY cautious for you paper longs.
ReplyDeleteIm long SLV 41 May Ps from yesterday's breakout. If we break 43.50 then God Bless, but it doesnt look like it. Failure to do another new high today will be bearish as well.
pforth
ReplyDeleteThat is the question on everybody's mind. Lots of folks contemplating the same thing. Also lots of folks thinking that every time they see a post like that it feels like capitulation on the miners and that means it's time to hold on to them.
I have no idea what is right. All I can say is I've been steadily trimming, trimming, trimming my miners since April 6th, but I added some this morning. But I'm also looking for a dip to buy in CEF, so I guess I'm on the fence same as you.
Maybe they are smashing the miners because they can't do a thing with the price of the PM's during the Comex hours. Isn't the EE involved with the hedge funds too? Along with shifting the suppression to the pre-Comex hours.
ReplyDeletePat,
ReplyDeleteMany who are more informed than I believe that the EE has the financial backing of the FED to cover any losses they sustain in PMs suppression. I'd guess they also get to keep all profits they "make" in between the losses.
For all you guys holding the mining shares - take note of James Turks and others comments - just accumilate and think of it as a gift.
ReplyDeleteWhen asked about the underperformance of gold shares Turk responded, “It’s depressing to see the mining share action today with gold and silver putting in such strong performances. But don’t let your emotions fool you and send you in the wrong direction. Sometimes the markets really do try your patience and this is one of those moments that we are seeing right now in the mining shares. KWN readers should continue accumulating the mining shares because at some point in the near future we will see a move that will be absolutely breathtaking.”
Turk was correct to note the underperformance of the mining shares. As Pierre Lassonde said in his last KWN interview, the mining shares were already one standard deviation away from the mean and the situation has worsened since that interview. Keep in mind that the mining shares will move from dramatic undervaluation to overvaluation and you will want to make sure you participate in that sensational price restructuring. As Turk stated that move in the mining shares, “Will be absolutely breathtaking.”
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/4/18_James_Turk_-_Negative_US_Credit_Watch_Signals_Dollar_Collapse.html
SoccerDad, I think Jim Sinclair considered it a tap if it traded at that level. I.e. there was at least one trade at 1444 (or whatever). Someone can correct me if I'm wrong.
ReplyDeleteSaudis give up on US, instigate direct Gulf action against Iran
ReplyDeleteApril 19, 2011,
After giving up on US and Israel ever confronting Iran, Saudi Arabia has gone out on a limb against the Obama administration to place itself at the forefront of an independent Gulf campaign for cutting down the Islamic Republic's drive for a nuclear bomb and its expansionist meddling in Arab countries, debkafile's Middle East sources report.
Two US emissaries sent to intercede with Saudi King Abdullah – US Defense Secretary Robert Gates on April 6 and National Security Adviser Tom Donilon, who arrived in Riyadh six days later – were told that Saudi Arabia had reached a parting-of-the ways with Washington, followed actively by Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman.
Abdullah said he could not forgive the Americans for throwing former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to the wolves in Cairo and for the unrest they were promoting against Arab regimes.
Saudi Arabia was therefore determined to lead the Gulf region on the road to a confrontation with Iran – up to and including military action if necessary – to defend the oil emirates against....
The rest at Debka.com
@ Reefman and others
ReplyDeleteGood article posted about the HUI and its previous cycles compared to today's cycle. Forgot who posted this article, but just passing it on. Always good to take step back from shorter term trends (all of this noise we are experiencing) to look at the bigger picture.
http://thetsitrader.blogspot.com/2011/04/is-it-too-late-for-miners.html
By the way, be sure you're holding the right miners. For right now, I'm not crazy about any of the large cap plays. I'm piling into a lot of speculative plays particularly in B.C. and Yukon. Seen Romios Gold lately? There are good things happening out there. You just have to find them.
ReplyDeleteYukon
Silver Swan - excellent video! Very funny stuff...
ReplyDeleteJust want to give you all a heads up to RUHEEALLY bad service from optionsXpress.
ReplyDeleteI have a futures trading account (soon to be with someone other than optionsXpress). If certain factors are present when I go to bed at midnight eastern, I set up a contingent order to sell my gold and silver futures at 5am. I then buy them back around 10am.
I put trades in as usual last night, and this morning, they were still open. As a result, I was unable to buy back at 10am. When I called OX, they refused to give me the buy order at 10am. They acted as if they were doing me a favor giving me the sell price as of 5am, but were not going to do anything about the fact that I couldnt trade in the account until their error was fixed. I will be finding a new broker pronto.
Any suggestions of one that will own their errors?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/silver-wheaton-and-great-panther-silver-poised-to-profit-from-precious-metal-boom-2011-04-19
ReplyDeleteSilver Wheaton and Great Panther Silver Poised to Profit From Precious Metal Boom
The Bedford Report Provides Analyst Research on Silver Wheaton & Great Panther Silver
@pforth
ReplyDeleteNo man you can't sell your lagging miners and buy a bullionfund with a 20%+ premium to NAV.
That can't possibly be right thing to do since you already have a physical stash.
@ those of you concerned about your mining shares and why they aren't moving in lock-step with PM prices...
ReplyDeletePlease read Stewart Thompson's take on things:
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_041911.html
I've seen it used many times before, but that Hitler bunker video never gets old. It is a quintessential rant/breakdown/madman scene.
ReplyDeleteMight want to watch your YouTube account though, I've heard they have been cracking down on that type of video for copyright purposes and pulling them off.
USD languishes as suspected. Waiting of nerdnanke FOMC dead head fed goon speak Wed. 4/27. Turk at King World News today is eyeballing 50 silver sooner than the later prediction for June he gave. Calm consolidation won't hurt today. We know how Thursdays into FRYday react going into the weekend for the PMs. Lets see who blinks. The disorderly rage to the upside for PM's is at greater odds to happen. Shorts have had pounding, unrelenting jiffy lubes regularly and the preparation H gettin spread thin.
ReplyDeleteHello all. This is my first post here. I've been lurking here for a couple of months already, and enjoying the site immensely. I have a lot to learn, and am sorely lacking in the erudition and articulateness most of you here have concerning the metals markets. I have a portfolio of mid-tier and junior miners (CLZ, PVG, AUN, AG, et al). It's been concerning how badly the miners have been underperforming. I've been wondering why. I wanted to bring this Minyanville.com article from yesterday that I came across, which describes the likely reasons for the miners' underperformance quite succinctly and straightforwardly:
ReplyDeletehttp://m.minyanville.com/?guid=34025&catid=4
Below is a passage from the article I find worth taking notice of. It is making me want to get out of all my shares after the presumed rally into mid-May, and then re-enter mining shares once the correction has taken its course:
"The gold shares have underperformed a rising price of gold in the past. We saw it in 2004 and also in 2007-2008. It generally precedes corrections and that is a reason to be cautious beyond the short-term, which looks positive. It is not manipulation or intervention. The proof this time is that all gold shares (seniors, mid-tiers and juniors) are now underperforming."
Does anyone have any thoughts on this? That it may not be the hedge funds who are shorting the shares, but, more likely, the high energy prices relative to the metals prices, along with the depreciated dollar?
Will the miners eventually see the gains we all hope for? James Turk on yesterday's King World News blog seems to think so. From yesterdays KWN blog, Eric King qoutes Turk:
When asked about the underperformance of gold shares Turk responded, “It’s depressing to see the mining share action today with gold and silver putting in such strong performances. But don’t let your emotions fool you and send you in the wrong direction. Sometimes the markets really do try your patience and this is one of those moments that we are seeing right now in the mining shares. KWN readers should continue accumulating the mining shares because at some point in the near future we will see a move that will be absolutely breathtaking.”
So, do we hold the shares, or sell during the May rally before the correction that the Minyanville article predicts?
pforth - I see this as divergence that at some point must correct. Being that I don't see silver going down, shares must go up. I added some GDX May and June calls last Friday. I too am looking for the move up!
ReplyDeletePforth
ReplyDeleteAck! Don't sell your miners. If you've braved this part, I think you will be rewarded soon. And it will be big. Notice how a tiny drop in spot was killing the miners? Mine are holding up really well today. Something is afoot.
Ok so this is probably the laziest and possibly most leading question I'll ever ask here...
ReplyDeleteI've got $40,000 and zero exposure to miners. I'm looking to allocate the entire sum towards this.
I realise and have read the heartache some of you have had holding onto non performers, but I do see the potential...and want to build substantial holdings in them.
I welcome recommendations on the key mining stocks I should be investing in especially if they are undervalued or at the brink of a breakout.
I accept all the usual caveats and the need to do my own DD. Your input will point me in the right direction.
I apologise in advance for such a blatant question, but this would indeed complete the cycle for me: Physical, Paper, Producer - and I'm keen to make it happen.
Tks much!
Yukon,
ReplyDeleteYou're exactly right. That's what I tried to do when I posted my assessment survey a couple of threads back. One gets frustrated being in a gold miner that's underperforming gold just the same as being in an oil stock that's trailing oil.
JoeKa,
ReplyDeletePeople say "miners" and I don't think they realize just how big a world that encompasses. Are you looking at any and all miners or just precious metal miners?
Yukon
JoeKa
ReplyDeleteThere was a really awesome post yesterday by don (?) on trending of miners.
Personally, I am loving wildcat. Exk and Ag are my mainstays. I'm just avoiding Africa.
Yukon, I'm tempted to say Precious Metal, but i'm guessing that its to my exclusion detriment. I am open to any possibilities and opportunities in and out PMs.
ReplyDelete@ JoeKa
ReplyDeleteBe sure to look at how much of a miners production is actual gold/silver. Some of them mine a lot of basemetals.
Has anyone else noticed that silver is dancing around 43.21??
ReplyDeleteSorry I just wanted to say that any positive replies I receive are going straight to OneNote for my further analysis tomorrow morning.
ReplyDeleteAgain thanks all!
@silver Swan
ReplyDeletenice job on the video!
Do one now with the opening to Patton and make that Turd.
If anyone believes that there is no manipulation involving the miners you are living in LaLa land for sure. Manipulation is so fundamental to the controlling all markets you have to be totally blind not to see it, let alone discount it as a factor in evaluating any market. The most powerful weapon in the manipulators arsenal is fiat paper money. It affects absolutely everything it touches, everything in the financial affairs of human beings is negatively influenced by this insidious cancer, most of all the miners.
ReplyDeleteWhat I'm rather vaguely implying is this.
ReplyDeleteA commodity price is a direct correlation of money for product.
A company has its own unique cost and production characteristics (quality of inputs, location, labor, MANAGEMENT, etc.) that may cause it to underperform/outperform the underlying commodity as the cycle progresses.
That's why you want to strongly consider its performance relative to the underlying commodity. Buy ones that are outperforming, and when they stop outperforming, switch to others that are.
JoeKa...The only thing I can say is maybe allocate half for now and keep the other half dry just in case a market meltdown happens like in 2008.
ReplyDeleteIf you look at the charts of the miners and go back 5 years you know what I"m getting at.
Not to be a buzzkill about the miners as I think James Turk is right as usual.
I can't help but think where I would be at $$$ wise if I had all of my powder dry and jumped in when it felt like the last thing you should be doing at the moment in o8' Just my opinion. There are lots of good choices.
Check out miningnerds.com for a huge list of miners that is updated after the market closes. Usually around 6:00 p.m. or so to give them time to complete the new daily update.
It's helpful to gauge things.
Click on the headers once you get the lists to sort things out however you want to look at it.
Guys I may not reply individually, but be assured I read every relevant reply and consider them seriously. It's almost bedtime for me...so am a little tired.
ReplyDeleteThanks friends.
JoeKa
ReplyDeleteWe had a lot of miner talk on a weekend thread a couple weeks ago. You might start there if you missed it. I apologize in advance for having my name in there way way too much. But of course, I think all the ones I mentioned were the best!! hahahahaha
They all been stinky since then tho....
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/04/saturday-in-chicago.html
The miners lagging the price is really something. Last time SLW was as low as it is today the price of AG was in the $35 range.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't worry too much about this. If the pries continue to diverge we will have to see a dramatic correction to the upside as results are announced in quarterly/annual meetings. If not, than some firms will become more attractive takeover targets which will have the same effect to raise SP.
If I had the money, I'd buy a mine right now. :)
pforth
ReplyDeleteI have a lot of physical, started 4 yrs ago. Then, I heard that it's time to load up on miners; Bob Chapman said your holdings should be 75% miners, 25% physical. Thankfully, I never sold any physical, but I'm stuck with these miners. Silver goes up, miners keep going down. My gut tells me to hang on, maybe I'll get some of my money back. But I don't think miners will ever make the money we thought, I believe because of the availability of ETFs, which I don't think Chapman took into account.
p.s. I'm not nearly as experienced as the others here and would love to be wrong!
JoeKa,
ReplyDeleteYou might start with Turd's recommended list. TRE, EGO, NT, GRS, EXK, SVM, GPL; I'm sure that he has probably updated the list, but here is the blog entry that I bookmarked from March 5th.
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/03/miner-update.html
Pardon me if I am mentioning something that's been brought up a thousand times but could the reason for miner weakness relative to the metals be fear of a windfall tax on the miners in a dollar collapse scenario?
ReplyDeleteThe Aussie govt already said they plan a new mining tax and you can be sure that if the whole world is hurting and miners are literally digging money out of the ground their right to do that will be curtailed.
How you do know what miners have hedged at a low price? This would really affect profit margins...
ReplyDeleteJoeKa
ReplyDeleteOn that thread I directed you to, don't skip Turd's post either. He started the discussion on miners in the first place.
Funny how just 10 days ago we were all feeling like these miners are all great and how much money we've made. And now 10 days later they all suck and we are ready to bail. Schizoid.
Purple Haze - man, you're really coming out with the goods lately. Thanks for all the info and links. Well, the Saudi situation ain't good, but it's good to know. That may be the biggest, ugliest mess that could explode everything. Scary. Black Swan? You bet. The biggest.
ReplyDeleteTo balance the bad with the good news, I'll have to read the article on SLW and GPL article you linked since I own them pretty heavily. With the miners being held down, a bit of good news is welcome.
Politics and world events are inextricably connected to metals as we know. You are correct about the Black Swan being held under water. The bankster owned politicos and their lapdogs in the mainstream media will hold that Swan down until the time when they can capitalize on it. Then, about the time that bird pops up, so will metals and their respective miners imo. The banksters will then be positioned to not miss that pop.
Afrum - you have a way with words... just a shout out that I enjoy reading your stuff. Truth passionately and creatively told, sir.
I see crude is rebounding nicely and the "dead fish" is shriveling further.
ReplyDeleteTF is right in schedule in his assessment
Looks like a good sign.
The broader market indices are starting to fall back also.
One significant news event and were off to higher ground.
"They've got my sack under a rolling pin"...
ReplyDeleteLMAO
Great video.
Thanks for everything also Turd.
Thanks Larry... It's blind spot right now, but not for us.
ReplyDeleteGTG do some things with my kids shortly.
Hopefully by the time I'm done and check back in everyone will be excited by some positive PM action.
JoeKa,
ReplyDeleteAnyone who's read any of my posts know I'm bearish on almost all regions except for North America so I'm not going to be recommending anything outside of there. I'm also positioning myself now more around the idea and fact of 'resource scarcity' and 'strategic resources' particularly around the idea of increased world conflicts.
An example of this would be the United States access to Cobalt. I'm very bullish on Cobalt and for that reason I like Formation Metals. They also have Gold, Silver, Copper, and Uranium properties.
I'm also very bullish on Moly/Nickel, Aluminum, Antimony, Coal, Rare Earths, Titanium, Bismuth, Copper, and more. Pretty much you name it. A good play to grab a lot of these might be Fortune Minerals.
I'm not as bullish on silver as I have been and I'm now getting my silver as a secondary on other plays I'm picking. Meaning that if I like a copper/gold miner and they have some silver as well then that's great. I'm not picking anymore pure silver plays though as I've already been there and done that. I continue to invest in Wildcat Silver, International Northair, and Kootenay Gold.
I'm also particularly bullish on certain regions such as the "Golden Triangle" in B.C. and certain plays in the Yukon. There really are some great companies out there that no one really seems to even pay attention to. How many of you even knew there was such a thing as Antimony before I talked about it a week or two ago? Want to see a chart... Look at U.S. Antimony Corporation and tell me what you think of that.
Anyway, there you go. I could rattle off 50 names of things to look at, but I think you need to have a plan on how you want to invest, where and why. From there, you can wittle that down with some other variables, then wittle it down some more. There are thousands of companies out there including many that no one has ever heard of that are diamonds in the rough.
Yukon
Joe Ka:
ReplyDeleteWhile back someone - sorry I do not recall the handle so cannot give proper credit - posted a link to his created Excel spreadsheet where a whole bunch of miners were tabled along with pertintny data. You may find it useful so I will provide his link here.
BTW I have gone there via link numerous times & there are no problems - as far as I am concerned.. Also you have to enable the macros for it to work: https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Ajym06WyPAdmdEdZM2RwRlZvNW40N1lsTm1CS1Fianc&authkey=COqL6cUF&hl=en#gid=17
Yet another breakout attempt underway in silver?
ReplyDeleteJust went to ZH after my posts...
ReplyDeleteBahrain Foreign Minister Seeks UN Help Against Iran "Encroachment"
Get ready. No wonder crude is going up.
Thanks for all the mining share responses. A couple of thoughts:
ReplyDeleteYukon: As to not owning the "right" miners you are correct, I obviously haven't :) I've focused entirely on the big boys in production. I guess I didn't want to get into a waiting for drill results game since I'm not qualified to analyze stuff like that.
Alyce: I think you are right, ETFs have taken investment demand from the miner's. In the past the only way to invest in silver from a traditional brokerage account was through the mining shares. That has changed now and will never change back.
$43.50
ReplyDelete--cont
ReplyDeleteben.roberts13 - You are right, I think the shares are manipulated, only unlike physical silver, there is no way to stop the creation of their naked shorts.
Dr O - Agreed, divergences do usually revert..unless there is a fundamental reason not to. Perhaps the creation of the ETF's is this reason.
Alyons - I'm not worried about the shares not confirming silver now...they've underperformed for the entire move since Aug--they usually provide 2-3x leverage and they haven't done that for a long time.
SilverSwan,
ReplyDeleteOr perhaps a clip from the Godfather where they receive the dead fish in newspapers.
Thanks to everyone who replied. Keep it coming if you have anything more to add. I remain open.
ReplyDelete@Eric: this may sound strange but not at all to be perceived as arrogant. But one of the reasons why I want to get in now, is because some of you long-time holders (and sufferers!) want to bail. That somehow was a cue to me to buy.
I'm not entirely sure why that makes sense to me. Perhaps I'm wired differently!? LOL
These 18 hour shifts from when you guys go to sleep and then wake is draining me. Goodnight all! See you again on my AM!
AG FINALLY catching a nice bid so I'm assured wonderful dreams! :)
Making new 31-year highs e'rry day.
ReplyDeleteOkey dokey. Here we go!!!
ReplyDeletesaid yesterday x was putting in a short term bottom sold today nice gain still think it might get to 60 but overall market seems a little weak
ReplyDeletelol Eric, how true. Its the manipulation that I see in the miners and in the PM's when it is occurring that angers me and that's going on all the time. For me, its about the battle and seeing the EE finally come to and end. That's my primary reason for watching the markets everyday. I started with miners and physical so long ago, I can afford to just sit back and watch myself get rich with buy and hold. However, I also am watching for the best point in time to get completely rid of the dogs I have and replace them with better things like GPL and have already thanks to this forum.
ReplyDeleteThe one thing I love about this blog is we have people talking when things are going bad. Too many used to go quiet when we were in a down or consolidation cycle on other sites,, like the Gold Eagle forum. I used to go there everyday in the old days, but their moderator never allowed any negative evaluations of the potential consolidation periods in the PM's. Only a very select few were even allowed to comment there, and only those who were optimistic on a daily basis, only PM cheerleaders. Oh, and don't ever mention the manipulation that was going on.
This,without question, is the best forum and the best group of analyst/investors I have ever encountered. I read almost all of your excellent post. Please, everyone don't despair and keep up the good work. You people are awesome !
Here we can lick our wounds and share in our grief when we lose a battle and support each other in our sorrow, only to hang on and enjoy our ultimate victory, because we will win in the end. HaHa, and as I type this silver just spiked to 43.61 Yipeeeeee !!!!
I know emotions should not overwhelm trading strategy, but out of frustration I was all in with SLW june 45 calls on the dip today.
ReplyDeleteSilver swan , funny video , good work!
ReplyDeleteRob,the way I see it, the EE has only so much funds allocated to suppression of silver, remember there are other things that need suppressing too!
That's why I believe they wont be around for the rest of the week .and if they do they wont be very strong
It seems every time they make a strong play like yesterday they seem to stop .
It makes sense to me that they can only use so much resources to that end.Especially when it results in failure after failure .
At this point it seems they can only reduce the amount silver moves up not stop it.
Blythe cant go knocking on Jamie's door asking for another 10 Million after an epic failure like yesterday.
Ol Jamie is gonna start getting pissed. Then he ll come back with ""I thought you told me you could handle the job with 10 million, now you want another ten million?""
And to make things more difficult, as the price of silver increases so does the funds need to suppress it.
And it doesn't go over well to keep asking for more in every weekly meeting .
No Sir, they spent their wad for the week . It was well planned too I might add in corresponding to the S&P downgraded outlook where the stock market dropped 200 points in ten minutes.
Its almost laughable as the bullion buyers are not moving, There is no way to shake them and they cant suppress the price on paper alone.
At best They can hope to slow down the price long enough for some kind of magical turnaround that isn't going to happen .
And even if they cause it drop 2-3 bucks in this market,the buying will be furious paper and physical you can bet Ill be taking my freaking cans/bottles to store just to get one more ounce lol they're screwed , they lost, but they just don't know it yet
Gold pushing towards $1500 again.
ReplyDelete"whats a good practice silver account to get?"
ReplyDeleteI signed up for an Optionshouse account last night. They have a practice platform. $3.95 stock trades. I get a Dell 24" monitor as a bonus (with $5000 startup). They just called and said if I fund the account in 5 days I get 100 free trades for 60 days. Just going to stick some buy and hold in it, but I am already up several % and haven't bought anything yet. Just FYI.
ARE WE GOING TO 1500 AND 44 TODAY??
ReplyDeleteGold is reaching for the Stars
ReplyDeleteYep. Looks like a bid for 1500 is in process.
ReplyDelete43.78!! Ohhhhhhhh my precious!!
ReplyDeleteGlad I delayed leaving the house for a few minutes. Very nice. Crude to the rescue again.
ReplyDeleteI need to pull away from the computer at some point soon. Damn!
Gold cracking $1500 is going to be like a dam breaking. Can't you see the little streams of water shooting out?
ReplyDeleteGold is KNOCKING!
ReplyDelete1499
ReplyDeleteSilverSwan, fun video.
ReplyDeleteIts nice to see some volume on the up ticks.
Usually I have not 1000+ contract volume ticks except on the takedowns. I'm seeing them on the ups! Some real buying pressure here.
Houston we have lift off!!
ReplyDeleteWhoa, something big happening?
ReplyDeleteWow, Turd. You called that one... ping 43.50, BANG 43.70.
ReplyDeleteexk just went positive for the day
ReplyDeletejpm owns a sizeable chunk of slw last i checked 12% if memory serves. I have suspected for a while now that EE has been purchasing shares of all the miners, only makes sense.If I knew in advance when various raids were to take place, intensity duration etc.I'd buy low- sell high- short, screw the crap out of those uppity peon investors daring to make an effort to protect what meager wealth we haven't managed to inflate away.Decrease surfs resources and their opposition to us diminishes
ReplyDeleteNew highs in gold and silver prices... wow!
ReplyDeleteTurd,
ReplyDeleteYou still feelin' your 45.81 call for Thurs? Considering next week's press conference and OPEX, where are you dumping your May silver calls?
Thanks
Alyce ... you said
ReplyDelete"I have a lot of physical, started 4 yrs ago. Then, I heard that it's time to load up on miners; Bob Chapman said your holdings should be 75% miners, 25% physical. Thankfully, I never sold any physical, but I'm stuck with these miners."
----------------------------------------
Not enough physical I would say ... I am weighted the other way ... 80% phys 20% stocks/miners ... no one can get my phys unless they take lead first .... stocks/cash on the other hand can be taken various ways ... so if something happens there (govt theft) 20% affected only.
I will say this though ... my firm belief is to sit tight because this log jam will break soon and your miners will perform ... give it time and patience ... coming soon !!!
I have noticed, that while these spikes may be beaten back in the short term, they do point to where we are headed next.
ReplyDeleteYes, SLV and other ETF's were created as a part of the PM's suppression scheme and is responsible in part for massive funds being diverted away from the miners. So the fact is, there are a multiple of reasons for the lag in the miners. We are living in very surrealistic times where little makes sense. Where up and down, good and evil etc. are reversed. But, only we who understand the basic economic laws and the criminals who deceive can make sense of all this madness. With a little help from our friend Turd !
silver and gold is not the only thing riseing!!
ReplyDeleteJune gold just printed $1500.00 exactly
ReplyDeleteI had a tick at 1499.30 before "The Great Oz" shit himself and brought it back down. Patience. Listen to the cracking of the dam. A million little Dutch Boys with two million thumbs couldn't keep this dam in place. I'm in my canoe ready to ride this water out of this thing when it pops. :)
ReplyDeleteYukon
Gold traded at $1500.00 on the JUN11 Comex contract. It did not yet touch $1500.10.
ReplyDeleteSoccerDad, I guess that would be a "tap".
JoeKa
ReplyDeleteYou are so right! But check my response to pforth earlier. Bottom line, putting my money where my mouth is, is that I BOUGHT miners this morning.
Added within a common ownership group that I like. One bottom fishing, one ready to breakout, and one doing nothing in particular.
Levon Resources
Avino Silver and Gold
Bralorne Gold
12:06p
ReplyDeleteBREAKING
U.S. Supreme Court building evacuated: report
One more push baby! Comeon! You know I love yoAAARGH STOP SQUEEZING MY HAND!
ReplyDeleteAll hail the Turd!
ReplyDeleteTurd's 10:30 post encouraged me to go long aggressively. Best day ever so far!
Haha, 1499.75... So close... PUSH!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDelete$2 just taken in 2 seconds
ReplyDeleteLots of nervous sellers at 1500
HERE COMES BLYTHE !! Maybe :) If so,let the battle begin.
ReplyDelete1500 is a big step... i doubt we will see it ... ( today)
ReplyDeleteRe: Investing in Miners
ReplyDeleteI try to remind myself of is that nearly every mining company out there is worth a whole lot more at $43 silver than it was at $19 silver last August. The same should be true of Gold miners at the lofty level of $1494. This thought helps keeps me optimistic on down days.
Updated most Tuesdays, Bill Matlack's Metals & Mining Analysts' Ratings & Estimates - Juniors & Seniors provides ratings (1.0 is the best) and current and future earnings projections(very important). I prefer a mining co. that will show real earnings growth. With some of these companies, real earnings are still pretty far off.
I try to cross-reference attractive looking companies from this list with corroborating analysis from other sources.
I also try to select companies with relatively safe mining jurisdictions, good management, rich ore grades and production improvements.
When a company looks good but supporting information is not quite complete, I like to take a small position and thus spread my bets among numerous promising companies in this bull mkt.
Tom T.
We were within 25 cents on the Net Dania 10 minute live chart.
ReplyDeletemarketwatch reported 1500 so hopefully mom & pop investors will read that
ReplyDeleteKitco metals is showing high of 1500.80
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kitco.com/market/
Thought it would good to throw these questions to fellow Turdites and see how people feel about it.
ReplyDeleteWhen buying 90% Silver US coins, are the ones in nicer condition more valuable than the worn ones? Or is it just all about the amount of Silver they contain & the spot price? Perhaps some of you who visit the coin shops could poll the owners on this.
I am buying a stack (actually, these coins are protected in a plastic sheet) of mint-condition Franklin Halves today; basically paying spot for these. What would other Turdites do?
Thanks,
Mammoth
$1500 is like the four-minute mile... it can be done!!
ReplyDeleteMaybe it's just me, but I have this vision where "The Bernank" "The Blythe" and the "The Geitner" all are teleported into a coin shop where a Dad is with his son or daughter and the Dad is explaining what real money is. I picture Bernank, Blythe, and Geitner all in slow motion running towards the counter screaming, "NoooOOoooooo!!!" while the dad purchases the American Gold Eagle and we tick above $1500. What happens next? You decide.
ReplyDeleteYukon
I have a high in the May of $1500.50
ReplyDeleteThe POSX is looking awful.
Give everyone a few minutes to regroup and then we'll make another stab higher.
Silver on the Globex should be interesting, too.
Chin...MI Bro' They have to take my lead first to get my AG. Amen Bro!
ReplyDeleteposted yesterday by TraderDan & worth a quick review...
ReplyDeletehttp://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/04/gold-closes-in-on-1500.html
Is BM going to be able to push it to $42.45, the low from yesterday?
ReplyDeleteMy bet is that she can get it to $42.75, then I will BTFD!!
Another green monster box, man this is getting fun!
Mammoth you got an excellent price. If these were original mint pack plastic, they are worth more than spot. If they were put into a plastic holder by the seller, then any value they might have depends upon the date and the condition, assuming you find a buyer for them above spot. You probably could.
ReplyDeleteJoeka:
ReplyDeleteI bought a $500 lottery ticket in Extorre Gold (XG)- can't remember when or why but I see it's worth over $10,000 today on it's 20% move for the day! You said you were wired different so you might like it! Good luck!!
ReplyDeleteSchefMarcus RT @Reuters: Corrected: Supreme Court has not been evacuated, area in front of building was cleared, court official says
Twitter - 2 seconds ago
MelvinChase RT @WTOP: Capitol Police have given the "All clear." First Street, #SupremeCourt reopens. #wtop
Twitter - 9 seconds ago
alert911 FLASH: Capitol police give all clear on suspicious package near Supreme Court
Guys are there any limitations for foreigners in the US to participate in forex online trading? Just to be on the safe side.
ReplyDeleteAlso, how are any gains taxed?
Thanks!
Glad Turd is here to enjoy this moment. Great call once again master. God, I love this place.
ReplyDelete@Mammoth, mint-condition coins COULD command a bit of a premium, but there are other considerations (run size & thus rarity, location of minting, specific date, etc.). I am not into numismatics, and thus cannot give recommendation, but buying halves at spot is not bad. Though I get quarters at melt minus 2 or 3%, and Morgan dollars at melt (no special condition, as-is circulated).
ReplyDeleteBut unless you are aware of special specific numismatic value for a specific coin, I am not sure a coin dealer would give more than melt-x% for it.
If you're buying Franklin Halves at spot and they are Mint State, then you are in Charlie Sheen's words "Bi-Winning". Actually I'm not sure what that really means but "winning" is in there and in this situation it applies. Buy them and don't look back. Melt value vs numismatic value is a very important aspect and I don't remember off the top of my head key/semi-key dates for that series but you practically can't lose on that purchase.
ReplyDeleteMammoth, your buying for bullion value only doesnt matter if theyre dirty . you wont get anymore for a clean one. spot seems too high for half dollars .
ReplyDeleteBlythe is pissed and fuming !
ReplyDeleteAs far as investing in the "right" miners. You could do a lot worse than just buy GDXJ. Get some diversification. Personally I do a shitload of my own DD, spread my money out over 15-20-25 names, and just hope to beat the crap out of GDXJ as a performance benchmark, which I do probably 4 days out of 5. Buying just 3 or 4 names just feels too random to me.
ReplyDeleteI tend to favor producers rather than lottery tickets. But not huge ones. And lean toward ones that have the drilling pretty much done and the engineering pretty much done and are looking like a lock to have production increases over the next few years of 50%-100%-or more.
That's my whole strategy in a nutshell.
I think we will be comfortably over 1500 and maybe 44 by the Thursday, the last trading day of the week I presume.
ReplyDeletejunk is usually sold a face ie 100 dollars of old silver coins, 10 dollars etc.1000 face of junk @ 90% equals 715 ounces of silver approx.silver sold by face, worn equals less, good condition equals more silver
ReplyDeleteEric #1: I actually have a lot of GDXJ. Since the start of the move in Aug it is up 1.5x. This beats gold at 1.25x but is left in the dust by silver at 2.3x.
ReplyDeleteI did notice that EXK beats silver though... 3.4x gains.
BOING!!!Show me the bounce
ReplyDeleteGood god...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/nyse-margin-debt-surges-highest-february-2008-net-speculator-leverage-second-highest-ever
That is all going to end in tears. If any of you are in margin, for the love of (insert deity of choice here) get out of margin.
Yukon
I sold half my comex gold just below $1500. I figure I'll get a chance to reload maybe at $1492 or so. I did something similar with silver, though barely successful.
ReplyDeleteGold is easy for me to trade successfully right now. I'm having trouble with silver because I'm too nervous without solid support levels.
Since gold is recently out of a large consolidation, I can leverage highly with confidence. So I can trade it easily and successfully.
Based on this, I'm going to be doing my leveraged trading more heavily in gold, than silver. I'll move my profits into physical silver.
WTI back above and moving away from 108 is a very positive development as well.
ReplyDeletePrice of silver each day Net Dania at 5 pm EDT
ReplyDeleteMarch
1 - 37.76 UP .25 Friday
4 - 38.55 UP .79 Monday
5 - 39.27 UP .72 Tuesday
6 - 39.53 UP .26 Wednesday
7 - 39.65 UP .12 Thursday
8 - 40.93 UP 1.28 Friday
11 - 40.24 DOWN .69 Monday
12 - 40.00 DOWN .24 Tuesday
13 - 40.60 UP .60 Wednesday
14 - 42.11 UP 1.51 Thursday
15 - 42.98 UP .87 Friday
18 - 43.38 UP .38 Monday
As you can see from this chart we have been up four consecutive days in a row. The longer we go without a down day the more likely it is we will get one, and you can expect the EE to hit hard. I expect the EE to hit hard today since they intended a takedown yesterday and didn't get one.
The longer we go without a successful takedown the more cautious I get. However, we may be witnessing the weakening of the EE over the price of PM's. If so, this is awesome news and a major paradigm shift.
I posted this chart an hour after the Comex opened. Thought I would post it again for your information.
My prediction:
ReplyDeleteFranklin Halves will be the "Benjamins" of the next decade!
Holy smokes! XG is up +19.6%!
ReplyDeleteHere's the headline from Drudge!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.drudgereport.com/
Widespread election violence erupts in Nigeria
ReplyDeleteNigeria produces about 3.3% of the world's supply, and it is ranked as 15th in production at 2.2 million barrels per day
http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/04/19/nigeria.election/index.html
Mammoth
ReplyDeleteI tend to stay away from the real smoothies, or cull them out right away from a lot that I bought. Here are my basic impressions:
Kennedy or Franklin halves: buy them
Walking Liberty Halves: Some are great, some are smoothies, but people love them anyway. I dump my smoothies.
Barber halves: super smoothies. Not interested.
Washington quarters: buy them.
Standing Liberty quarters: almost all smoothies. I dump them.
Roosevelt dimes: buy them
Mercury dimes: some are great, some are smoothies, but people love them anyway. I sort and dump as needed.
Barber dimes: all smoothies, gone.
Sooner or later, the industry will go to trading these things by weight instead of face value, so you are going to want to cull the smoothies and stick with coins that still have a lot of meat on the bone.
Gee Turd, It seems a long time since you have posted so many times along with the rest of our comments. It's such a pleasure to see. Glad you have the time to do it... Thanks !
ReplyDeleteJust in, CNN breaking news :)
ReplyDeleteGold reaches $1,500 an ounce for the first time.
A little advertiseing never hurt, might bring in some players
ReplyDeleteBloomberg as we speak announces the same.
ReplyDeleteI play leverage with long term warrants slw, aem brd, kgc, etc you have to research these carefully but some are working very well.
ReplyDelete@Yukon,
ReplyDeleteLoved the "vision"...that would be justice, a purchase by a father and his daughter being the straw that pushed gold permanently over $1500.
...the vision continues with the same dealer then calling the mint to buy more gold eagles and Blythe grabs his phone and stomps on it, while Bernank is outside trying to entice the little girl out of her shiny new gold eagle by showing her a stack of 1,500 FRNs.
mammoth
ReplyDeleteMaybe I wasn't clear on those particular Franklins you are looking at.
GRAB "EM
Some food for thought Eric, but I have too many to go through and bought so long ago. Who would buy those smoothies anyways at spot and not by weight? It would take me months to do that. :))
ReplyDeleteThese are exciting moments.
ReplyDeleteThe best is yet to come!
from Daniel FCB:
ReplyDeleteBased on EXK's response to previous upturns, I'm thinking of buying some Aug calls. Usually I don't go that short term, but EXK really popped recently before retracing. I did add some 2012 calls to my SLW stash.
Interesting enough, Sandstorm Gold (royalty co. similar to the SLW strategy) has not gone down during this last disappointing week for PM miners. The same guys have started a parallel co. with energy - Sandstorm Metals and Energy. That HAS pulled back 10-12% in the last week. Just putting it out there, people, and thanks for all the informative posts.
Come on Blythe you dirty cash slut, raid this mofo so I can load up!! $39, can I get a $39!?!?
ReplyDeleteIt's kinda painful paying around $40 when I stared at $17. Oh, well...in a year from now when it's $100 I'll be kicking myself for not doubling down.
Good afternoon - I promise to catch up, but a new thread with 150 comments is rather daunting. But I had to let Eric know that I am freshly home after sending off my money order to Apmex - ended up costing me under 3050 Canadian for the two coins, exchange rates and postage included (including sending the money order, etc.) Waiting for the exchange rate saved me almost 2 cents on the dollar - $60. I am getting smarter about these seemingly minor details. But the long and the short of it is, great deal - better than Kitco for new maples, etc. And to other Canadians out there - there was a Canadian address for sending the money order to, and it is in Toronto. And you have a choice of paying in Canadian or US dollars, so like I did, you can play the exchange rate too. Pay in US dollars and you have 5 business days to get them their money - plenty of time to capitalize on their shenanigans.
ReplyDeleteSo I am half way to possession! You would think I had never owned gold before.
Now the Yahoo board has GPL announcing drilling results tomorrow...let's hope for good news.
ReplyDeleteThe miners remind me of a concrete sailboat, it requires a stiff wind from behind and a motor on the back to make it move.... any slacking off of the wind or the outboard motor and it starts drifting backward....sigh.
Bill Matlack's Metals & Mining Analysts' Ratings & Estimates - Juniors & Seniors can be found at Kitco.com under Contributed Commentaries.
ReplyDeleteLeft that info out of my previous post.
Tom T.
Hopefully see a decent push over the top and beyond 1500 today. Missed my sell order earlier, I have a high on my screen of 1499.95 lol
ReplyDeleteben.roberts13
ReplyDeleteThe "by weight" thing hasn't happened much yet, I just feel like it's coming, from various comments from coin shops, etc. For now, they do sort of adjust when they look at the coins. You walk in with a pile, and they might say "we're paying $28 today (per 1$ face), but when they spread them out on the counter, if there's too many smoothies, they'll say " I can only do $27 on these" or something along those lines. Sometimes they just don't pay a lot of attention and still pay the going rate for smoothies, but I think those days are coming to an end.
There's a huge difference in silver content between a 1964 Kennedy half and a real smooth Walking Lib. As silver gets higher and higher, that diff will translate into more and more money, and force the issue on the shops.
SLW price target of $50
ReplyDeletehttp://community.nasdaq.com/News/2011-04/coverage-launch-50-trefis-price-estimate-for-silver-wheaton.aspx?storyid=71749
CNN Breaking News - Gold reaches $1500 an ounce for first time.
ReplyDeleteim betting we break the $50.00 mark very very soon, does anybody else but me see a parabolic sipke comeing?
ReplyDeletexty
ReplyDeleteYou sly little currency arbitrageur you!!
does anyone think we are not taking out $44 today?
ReplyDeleteSamex up 50% today. Out for now, this beautiful baby is a live wire. Gratitude and more gratitude.
ReplyDeleteatlee:
ReplyDeleteI'm rootin' for it!
WTI now pushing $109. Very helpful.
ReplyDeleteIt seems like since EE is spending all resources and focusing all attention on Gold, Silver is able to buttonhook around and sneak higher...
ReplyDeleteTitus:
ReplyDeleteXG moves 20% on a new discovery -
"("Extorre" or the "Company") is pleased to announce high grade to bonanza grade gold-silver results from the first 3 of 21 diamond drill holes completed to date on a discovery named Zoe at Cerro Moro, Santa Cruz Province, Argentina."
every time silver proves itself to me by making a new high, I had another 25 AGQ. T the new high so I too am rootin
ReplyDeleteSilver is performing very well since the miniraid 30 min ago..but gold ?
ReplyDeleteDoes anybody really bets that we will catch the 1500 $ today ?
Making new highs again. 43.88
ReplyDeleteSilver will slice through $44 like a hot knife through butter. This will take gold over $1,500...finally.
ReplyDeleteMarvin, gold is re-grouping. It powered to 1500 and hit a bunch of sell stops. Give it a little while. The next thrust ought to do it.
ReplyDeleteTurd does is concern you that on yahoo.com gold is sandwiched in trending now between Nutella and Johnny Knoxville. I have been trading the metal for three years and I remember a similiar instance happened on the opposing end when my girlfriend said "Didn't you see yahoo gold is going down" at $1250 and figured the sheeple had enough pain. I am a bit worried here short term even though the techs still look encouraging. Cartel seems to be capping the HUI at 580-585 as well with the industry "stars" like SLW shitting the bed lately. Thoughts anyone?
ReplyDeleteEric - I really do owe you. Because you had bothered to research for me about the coins, I had a very good look, and compared prices at Kitco, etc. Not only did Apmex have the best prices, they have way more products. But having saved my few dollars an ounce, etc., I didn't want to squander it. And also, wanted to be able to convince hubby that I hadn't lost my mind. I might be able to get that 50 peso coin if I play my cards right.
ReplyDeleteAnd I agree with Eric#1 on the coin breakdown. '64 Kennedy's, pre-'64 Roosevelt dimes, later date Washington quarters are all winners. BU Peace dollars can be had near spot and are sold 90%'ers.
ReplyDeleteEric said:
ReplyDeletejust hope to beat the crap out of GDXJ as a performance benchmark, which I do probably 4 days out of 5.
Google Docs Spreadsheet please???
I hope someone can help me. I am looking at optionhouse.com and have the tool open. "SLV" tracks at $1 less then the real silver cost.
ReplyDeleteCan anyone explain this to me?
Also if I want to trade Gold options, do I use GLD?
PART 1:
ReplyDelete@JoeKa
disclaimer: do your own due diligence. ~3% of my net worth is SLW stock (my 4th largest individual stock holding), my trading portfolio is heavily weighted in long SLW May calls at 42 and 43 (I also mention HL, and I am long HL calls at 9). This is the story of why I own them:
SLW
EPS
1q2010 0.13
2q2010 0.15
3q2010 0.16
4q2010 0.35
4q2010:
1) average silver price in 4q2010 was around $27 (estimated from netdania charts), for a net realized profit of ~23/oz (at cost of $4/oz per SLW publications).
2) $123m net earnings in 4Q2010 was double any previous quarter, accounted for almost 45% of annual revenue.
1q2011 and beyond:
1) average silver price in 1q2011 will be around $30-31 (looking at a silver spot chart), for a net realized profit likely to be in the 26-27/oz range.
2) assuming no increase in production, 1Q2011 EPS should be in the neighborhood of 0.40-0.41. At $40/oz average, 2q2011 EPS could increase to 0.50-0.55. If silver prices remain above $40/oz for the rest of 2011, annual EPS should be $2.00 at minimum (again with no increase in production which is highly unlikely). SLW estimates it may double production by 2015, and that suggests an increase of production of ~20% by the end of this year, which could push EPS nearer to $2.50, which would be a 200% year over year increase in EPS. 12 month price targets are in the $56-58 range, 33% above the current price.
SLW CEO has said dividend payouts could be significantly boosted (but no guidance about rate of increase following initiation of a dividend last quarter). We could potentially see a dividend increase from 0.03 to 0.05 or 0.06 this quarter (0.06 would be nice for their investor relations, "after initiating a dividend for the first time in the prior quarter, we are proud to announce to our shareholders that we are doubling our dividend this quarter").
see:
http://goldcaddy.com/2011/03/04/silver-wheatons-small-inaugural-dividend-to-grow-with-high-metal-prices-ceo/
and finally bring up the rear here comes the miners.
ReplyDeletePART 2:
ReplyDelete@JoeKa
It appears miners follow the SP500 more than metal prices, but as Gold and Silver spot prices continue to increase and get more press coverage, I think there is a good chance we will see more decoupling of the miners from the rest of the SP500 and they will more closely mirror prices in metals.
Q1 earnings announcement is May 9. HL announces Apr 25, and their revenue increase should offer good guidance for SLW revenue increase HL cost of silver per ounce is negative $1-2 [net positive on their realized price of silver], SLW cost is $4/oz [net negative], with that difference giving SLW a slight edge in response to increases in silver price due to better leverage. SLW is a pure silver play (90% of revenues from silver), while HL is around 40-50% silver with revenues diluted by gold and base metals (whose prices have not increased as much as silver). I mention both of these as SLW is likely to have marginally better improvement in performance (net revenue/share) compared to HL.
I think many of the juniors have a higher chance of a big upside move over the next 2 years, but I can't think of a miner who has a better chance for a 25% ascent in the near term, and by near term I mean by the time my May options expire. SLW was priced as high as 47.60 when silver prices were just breaking 41. My personal short term conservative price estimate is $50, 5% above its all time high, even though revenues might increase by 15-20% this quarter alone over previous all time highs.
do your own due diligence. my recommendation is to make a decision on if and how you would want to play SLW before HL reports earnings - I strongly believe HL's report will cause a paradigm shift in the price of silver miners. like QEx and the steady ascent of silver spot price, I believe the fundamentals for the silver miners are too strong for the market to continue to ignore.
http://silverwheaton.com/Theme/SilverWheaton/files/11-03-31%20SLW%20Presentation%20FINAL%20(for%20web).pdf
http://silverwheaton.com/Theme/SilverWheaton/files/docs_financials/2011-04_Silver_Wheaton_Annual_Report_FINAL.pdf
Maybe 1496 will become support?
ReplyDeleteAnd Eric, you are probably right. All in all, I don't think I have that many smoothies. I bought so long ago at a time when they did not have to resort to filling the rolls with smoothies. Most of my Walking Liberties are in pretty good condition. I do have some standing liberty smoothies but not enough to worry about. all the dates are readable. Some Seated liberties with readable dates too, but not enough to worry about. I'm keeping them because they are so old.
I think a lot of this stuff could be come collectable,, haha maybe fifty years. Who knows.
Thanks for the info though, something those buying at these prices should definitely consider if they have a lot of real smoothie dogs. I totally agree, it will be by the weight in the not so distant future. Silver is making me very happy today in spite of the miners, I mostly have large cap miner like GG and a few mid tier like Minefinders. Got a few miner dogs I got to get rid of soon. Thanks for the info, much appreciated
1 oz. silver on ebay over $50!
ReplyDeletehttp://cgi.ebay.com/1-Troy-oz-999-Fine-Silver-Bar-Pan-American-BU-/280662486400?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item4158c9ad80
@waffen
ReplyDeleteSLV tracks below silver because over the life of the ETF it has incurred expense fees which take away from its share price.
Yes, you can use GLD to trade gold options. You can also use SGOL, futures, miners, etc.
jmizzle: it's due to the hedge funds ratio trades: long metal, short miners.
ReplyDeleteHedgies reason that, in a PM sell-off, the miners will get hit harder than the metals, so the short leg of their trades will make them money.
There will come a point when this trade will kick them in the balls. We're not there yet.
I feel your pain, bud. Each time I look at my SLW stock and calls, I need a snorkel.
I just saw 43.92 on the May.
ReplyDeleteAfter an initial drop, I can't imagine we won't see $44 on the Globex.
ben, yes, 1495 is the staging area for the next run through 1500.
ReplyDeleteTurd: will it be like 1400? bump, bump, bump a roodie and beyond?
ReplyDeleteDr Durden read your post and broke up.TEE Hee i luv a good laff! I feel your pain, my timing has sucked lately At least we have humor.aem moved gg moved, kgc still stinkin up the place. Whats up with that?Tf luv those posx pics.What fun!
ReplyDeleteI meant like sinclair said
ReplyDeletespeaking of which, his next angel is 1521
perhaps what we all could use is a large google docs spreadsheet for miners, that is interactive
ReplyDeleteif we did this right, it could be something that has 1 sheet for gold miners and another for silver. we could fill the data and then most importantly when major news stories broke about any miner, it could be updated and everyone could see it. i realize this may not be possible, but it is just an idea...
Does anyone else intend to lighten their silver "paper" exposure before the next FOMC meeting on the 27th? Seems like they would be hinting about ending QE at that time. Might cause a short term dip in commods.
ReplyDeleteVery, very heavy selling in gold.
ReplyDeleteJust my opininon here... We know that physical silver is being manipulated but it doesn't make us want to rush out and sell our physical. Why would the fact that the mining shares are being manipulted make us want to sell our mining shares? They will be valued fairly (just like the physical) in due time.
ReplyDeleteMy .02 on the undervalued miner situation ..but who am I and what do I know :] ..Patience will reward.
I like having Turd post here more with us!
@sp
ReplyDeleteA very good idea. I have a very detailed spreadsheet which I am constantly adding to. Unfortunately, two of the primary sections are proprietary from subscription newsletters and I would be illegally sharing that information. I will work to remove those sections and share it with the community by tonight hopefully.
I am also working on a spreadsheet identical to Jesse's NAV of certain precious metal funds that is self updating which I plan on sharing. Unfortunately I have hit a snag using the importhtml function in google docs, as it does not self refresh faster than a one hour time frame. I am searching for a solution when not at work, but if anybody knows how to fix this problem I will be happy to share the document then.
I'm seeing a 1 second burst of selling in JUL11 Comex gold of 2000 contracts (more than any time during the day).
ReplyDeleteCan anyone else confirm this?
Don't underestimate what you know Ginger. Your analysis is exactly right. I couldn't agree more.
ReplyDeleteThanks Walt, CD, Jerome, Eric and any others I may have missed for your comments regarding sweet 90% Silver coins vs. the 'smoothies.'
ReplyDeleteBetter dump that Barber to avoid a haircut!
Ironic that the name, "Ben" is associated with a coin worth more than 30 times its face value...