Wednesday, April 13, 2011

From Here, Where?

Before we get started, I encourage you to go visit Trader Dan. He's written a terrific piece regarding the action yesterday.
I would also add that the timing was no coincidence. Option expiration for the May WTI contract is tomorrow. At $113, Tungstenman probably had huge losses and they needed to get crude back under $110 for a few days. Additionally, who do you think was taking the other side of all those sell orders yesterday? Someone was? Tungstenman, perhaps?

Also, I found this to be a rare moment of truth from The Fed. Clearly, Hoenig feels unleashed because he is retiring this fall and he needs to clear his conscience before he fades into obscurity.

And this is interesting as it discusses several of the miners that we follow here:

OK, onto the charts. We're at a rather important juncture. The charts clearly show some support and resistance levels. These will be handy in that clearing them in either direction will give us reason to either get excited or book some profits and wait for a re-entry point.

Let's start with silver. The open interest in the May contract is about where you'd expect it to be with so little time remaining before "first notice" day, the 29th. Basis Monday, the May silver OI was 64,629. On 2/10/11, the OI in the March contract was 62581, about the same. Well, you all should remember how that played out. Lots of angst regarding Comex default led to a wild, wild end of February. I don't know about you but The Turd made a lot of fiat in just a few days. I'm expecting the same scenario to play out this month. Next week will be fun. The week of the 25th should be a blast!

In the short-term, we need to watch 39.20-40 as important support. A move UP through 41 can give us confidence that a test of the old highs near 42 is coming.
Now note that 39.20 also lies in the general area of "trendline #2" on this chart. I would be very surprised if silver breaks down through this area. Very surprised.
IF we have more carry trade unwinding or more Tungstenman BS and silver does break 39.20, look for it to move toward the old highs of 38.20. This would place it near the "trendline #1". I would be a very aggressive buyer of silver if this were to come to pass.

In gold, the selloff stopped right at 1445 yesterday. Aren't these charts amazing? They only work because everyone is looking at the same thing so its kind of self-fulfilling but, still, it is remarkable.
1445 was obvious because its the old resistance from the six-month range we just exited.
Now look at it here on this hourly chart. Pretty cool, huh?
Now, like yesterday, someone could try to pull the rug out from under gold and send it cascading downward again. If they do, I'll be patiently waiting at 1445 with some buy orders. I kind of hope they do because I didn't get filled yesterday. I was trying to buy some June 1450 calls. I could only afford to pay 25.6. The low was 25.8. Ugh.
Also watch the 1453 level as a break there would be your first sign of trouble and an indicator that a second test of 1445 is coming. A break UP through 1468 would be reason to believe that the storm has passed.

I've got lasts of 1459 and 40.40. Should be another interesting day.
More later. TF


  1. Let's hope todays vol. stays in the normal range level

  2. Joe Kernan said...

    Run this linked article through Google Translate. The author in China of the wildly popular books, Currency Wars, essentially the Chinese version of the Creature From Jekyl Island is out with his predictions for silver. $50 this year on a target to $200. As one of the most respected financial writers in China, one can fill in the blanks of the net effects of it. Witness today, where JPM must have blown a few hundred million trying to knock silver well below $40 only to be met with epic buying. Guess who?

    ** From another poster on another forum "

  3. "I'm expecting the same scenario to play out this month. Next week will be fun. The week of the 25th should be a blast!"

    -- Turd, you will be proven to be top smart on this call again, based on the faith that JPM doesn't have silver and more and more investors know it.

  4. and now I'm ready for the day. Thanks, Turd.

  5. Gold retested its previous resistance near $1445, but silver ended its correction nearly $2 ABOVE its old resistance near $38! Amazing action!

  6. Turd, I agree with all your comments this morning. Always a chance for weakness to emerge, but only at great cost to shorts. The magnet to 50 is very powerful, moreso this week than last week.

  7. OK, not only did I come in a day late and a dollar short on my last ridiculous post about canned bacon, but now I'm reposting it to boot! I think I should shut up now, shower up, and get to work!

    This is completely unrelated to gold and silver, and completely overkill on the canned bacon thing, but just wanted to relate my first intro to canned bacon.

    Years ago, when I was a lad, we used to go backpacking in the Boundary Waters of Minnesota. Also had a relative who worked at Oscar Meyer. They used to make canned bacon for the military, and he could get the stuff from the company store. It was in big green cans, and we'd take it on backpacking trips. This was back when you actually COULD bring things in cans. That's banned now. Anyway, I LOVED that bacon! A tad salty, which I like anyway. But awesome. Especially on a backpacking trip where anything that even resembles real meat is like something straight from heaven. I'll never forget it, and that's what made me seek out canned bacon decades later.

  8. Just read the rest of the thread from last night.. ..Xty.. LOL! :D ...I'll never ever think of bacon the same way again after all these shenanigans. lol.

    Sumo, Kumanari, Eric ...I so appreciate the advice/words of wisdom. You guys help so many here. (Certainly including me)

    THANK YOU for sharing your personal story. I can totally relate ...more than you may think. You didn't come to TF's blog by accident. I don't believe in coincidences ..because there are none. Everything for a reason and oddly it IS the tough things in life that refines us and make us who we are capable of being. I firmly believe that. It is awfully (awfully awfully) difficult to go thru times like you have/are but I know on the other side of it (and there is another side coming) you will have some miracles waiting on you. And life will be peaceful again. Draw the strength you need in part from who you surround yourself with. That means good people here too! You (we both) are on the right path and we and our families will be just fine. Believe It!! :]

  9. My gut feeling tells me we're going to 40.20 and then bounce.. Let's just hope for the best

  10. @Dear All Turdites,

    This is as well SLV and GLD option expiration week. Not only this is our friends' shitty vehicle to help suppressing PM prices. They have additional motivation to manipulate price AS MUCH AS IT'S POSSIBLE to drive it close to Max Pain point so lots of options expire worthless and manipulators make lots of money on that.

    I bet Goldman does the same with oil options.

    As far as the huge bet against SLV is concerned, I think it's simple: somebody already knows SLV is a scam. After May, which is delivery month, when it comes out to the public that they don't have anything backing the fund - price between spot and SLV is going to be a bit beeeeeeger. But, as misinterpreted by MSM - it seemed like bet against actual physical silver price.

    My advice - if you need leverage, go for spot/silver futures/silver futures options/Sprott. Throw away this piece of garbage like SLV is. Going long in SLV has no advantages, and only drawbacks:
    - physical silver price goes down (due to massive manipulation) -> SLV down
    - physical silver skyrockets because of horrible discovery of empty Comex vaults -> SLV classified as a scam and rejected immediately


  11. I noticed that the FED/Treas trolls on ZH were out in force slamming our Turd. TF is not God, he does make mistakes as we all do. But at least he tries making sense of all the WS criminal behavior. It's interesting that when the banksters start their naked short beatdowns, the drop in some select PM stocks drop instantaneously; HFT algorithms? BTW, has anyone else noticed that the Kitco charts are as much as 2 hours behind when the raids take place? I've often wondered if they, like Barrick, are part of the conspiracy.

  12. It's always the truly quality stuff that get the biggest pop after a raid.

  13. some levity from ZeroHedge:

    pretty funny...but unfortunately it hits close to home in that we could actually see this kind of B.S. happening in America one day soon.

    And bascially it already did in North Carolina last month with the Bernard von NotHaus case.

    pretty crazy...

  14. Crude inventories in 10 mins, hopefully no shenanigans.

    Also, the Fed's Beige Book @ 2PM. What the hell is this? Fed's monthly propaganda report?

    P.S. The DOW gave up a lot of its gains early.
    Short lived JP Morgan leading the market rally...

    I thought there would be a bigger open for the miners, but I guess the uncertainty has not forced the issue. The volume today is extremely light on all my stocks.

  15. You'll notice I always just spell out the name of the miners lately. Avoids any confusion about canadian vs US tickers. It helps the newbs and the grizzled vets know what I'm talking about anyway.

  16. Eric#1 - I like that policy of spelling out the names. That reminds me of a "we are the world" type moment I had looking at Yukon's Naked Silver photos of the Silver Pandas. They say "1 oz. Ag" at the bottom. Even in China - all speaking the same language. I dig that.

  17. CNBC on my local cable just froze up. Pretty refreshing actually. May be their finest hour.

  18. Eric - no, I am worse, because I answered your last comment and got the TEP - almost didn't notice the new thread because of the way over 400 displays, and Turd's new thread is at the bottom of the 200-400 page. A whole new problem! But I don't have the nerve to repost.

    But just a cranky note - it is one thing to repost from the end of a thread, to keep things going and answer people, or just because some effort went into analysis. But could we skip the 1st and 2nds, please? I don't get why you care, at least post a joke, or a canned bacon recipe! But don't just rush to be first - it is a touch asinine.

    Skipping the part about Magic Pantry cabbage rolls on a canoe trip, and interesting story about my vegetarian niece, a 40 day canoe trip through Labrador, double smoked bacon, and a meat eating much nicer niece, what was relevant in my last comment was this

    I think we witnessed a failed raid at 9:45 - massive spike in volume, but the price didn't move. Should have been a second leg down.

  19. Anyone see the article on Seeking Alpha where JPM is loading up on physical platinum and GS is advising their clients to sell it?

    Any thoughts on this?

  20. xty

    oh, crap. Now I have to go back through 17 clicks to find your answer. And trust me, I never miss an answer from xty!

  21. GPL not invited to the party. Testing day's low as I type. Just bought more at 4.04 and 4.05.

  22. Max Keiser: "Sell your Platinum, Crash JP Morgue" :))

  23. apb: Not sure what I did to piss off Spalding but he sure is belligerent.
    He was one of the first 10 or so to "feed the turd" oh so long ago. I must have kicked him out for being a troll and now he blasts away on ZH with every opportunity. Oh well...

  24. APMEX sent me an alert email about the availability of the 5 oz America the Beautiful coins. A set of 5 (25oz) at $988.75 plus shipping costs. That's $39.55 an oz. These won't last the day. Only one per family, per the US Mint stipulation.

    Sorry if this has already been mentioned. I'm about 12 hours behind on this blog.

  25. Crude Inventories down bullish for crude? Seems to have some life in it. Especially since, the sell-off was manipulated and not legitimate.

    Apr 13 10:30 AM
    Crude Inventories 04/09
    Actual: 1.627M
    Market Expects:NA
    Predicted: NA
    (Great little site to bookmark)

  26. Gold and Silver Demand Expands

  27. Anyone worried about a Wednesday smack-down? I had the luxury of just being a lurker and watching this market these past two days without being able to interact, which is good because my finger would have pulled even more sell triggers than I did on Monday when the game started going south. We seem to be consolidating at a nice level right now, but I am hesitant to buy any positions back yet, at least not today or possibly even this week.

    I don't think the games are done yet and would like to see silver break $40.80 before getting back in, even if it means I will have to pay a little more for some miners that are still down pretty good right now. Most of my DD on miners from last week got thrown out the window seeing as how some are jumping back up and others aren't as I would have expected. Anyone else sitting on the sidelines today or this week?

  28. @Justin
    I'm on sidelines unless we slide back to 39.50 or make new highs over 42. Otherwise, I'm good with what I'm holding.

  29. Yahoo (AP) Kuwait temporarily halting crude exports because of a sandstorm. That ought to be good for crude and PM prices.

  30. Scott

    I used to watch those Wednesday morning crude inventories like a hawk, making bets before and after. Nat gas too. Thursdays? After a while, I realized that stuff has a half life of about 20 minutes. I don't even watch it anymore.

    Step back and watch those trends from a longer term perspective. Yes, that's useful. But day to day? No.

  31. I noticed a raid on xag @9:32am with a failed second attempt.
    Then a much bigger one @10:03am

    Both times they rebounded.

    Looks real strong now. Missed buying again

  32. Dollar big dip. Silver sharp uptick. Any reason?


  34. Probably concluded the treasury sales

  35. Link keeps going down. Google APMEX america the beautiful it's the first link.

  36. damn tornado drill away from computer

  37. Justin,

    Yeah, I'm on the sidelines with my paper trading (mostly miners). I saw a few of my favorite miners drop over the last few days and was ready to pull the trigger at the end of trading yesterday, but I held out. I'm 80% dry powder, 20% into Great Panther, Tinka, Cream, Aurcana, and Revett. Sold my US Silver (USSIF) for a great profit, and might buy back in after their earnings report.

    Looking to get back in with Fortuna, First Majestic, Silver Wheaton, and few others. Kinda wish I would have pulled that trigger yesterday.

  38. Silver is poking it's little head up again ... :-))

  39. anybody have a sell order in for first majestic? my losses from yesterday are just about reversed - I bought halfway through the dip - hold through Friday?

  40. Proud owner of 4k Great Panther shares :)
    Thanks SSK for the updates

  41. yup sold out on atb.
    any other outlets??? didn't someone say there was a free shipping place at over $1500?

  42. All the guys who allowed Fear to sell their First Majestic for them over the last couple days are now buying it back.

    Never let Fear or Greed near your keyboard.

  43. Wow, it's "party on Garth" for rare earth and pm miners today :-)

  44. NovaGold First Quarter Financial Results and Projects Update

  45. It's fairly interesting (OK, boring) to see the PO$X kind of just moving slightly up and down in a pretty tight range below $75 when it was moving quite a bit over the past few weeks prior to this past weeks lack of movement.
    Not sure what to make of the lack of movement. Maybe it's just the Yen stabilizing a bit after the earthquake. The PO$X looks to be just bouncing on a floor of resistance before it falls through.

    It would be interesting to know what is really going on behind the scene's and why and what determines the Fed. intervention or lack of it regarding the PO$X.
    It appears that besides yesterdays Goldman Suks sell off in commodities that the PO$X, crude and the PM's are consolidating just waiting for some type of MSM news cycle to move them.
    Obama's speech today (gag!) and some type of debt ceiling or budget news (not passing through the Senate) might be the news. Possibly the MENA making some headline grabbing attention.
    The Debka article yesterday was a real eye opener (to me at least) regarding the Iran/Fukishima comparison. I have not heard one MSM even mention it at all.
    What gives with that?

  46. I think today XAG price action can take reference comparison from the price bar performance of XAG on the 25 Feb 11.

    The basis for my postulation is an analog comparison of similar sub cycle phase. I think today 13 Apr 11 is the 1st price bar of sub cycle 6-2-3. 25 Feb 11, was the 1st price bar of sub cycle 6-1-3.

    On 25 Feb 11, XAG clocked an impressive +5.23% plus intraday rise, after a modest drop of 7.71 % from the few days prior. If today XAG price action mirrors the price performance of XAG on the 25 Feb 11. We can expect to see a high close for XAG by end of day.

    Just a hunch and WILD guess...

  47. I harp on Fear all the time, but I always make a point to say "Fear and Greed".

    Greed made people buy $50 silver in 1980. Greed made people buy techs in 1999. Greed made people leverage their real estate in 2007.

    Fear and Greed are equally destructive to your wealth. Be on the lookout for both.

  48. California siezing the contents of safety deposit boxes:

    BEWARE. Do not trust the bastards.

  49. You can't keep a good Majestic down ;^p

  50. Eric#1 @10:05,

    You can never have too much canned bacon – and yes it is indeed related to the Silver discussions here, because stocking up on this delectable canned pork product is part of the subject of preparing for the future, as is trading and/or accumulating PM’s.

    And remember that canned bacon, SPAM, freeze-dried food and other similar fare increase in tastiness in direct proportion to your distance from civilization…

    Also been to the Boundary Waters. This is an absolutely beautiful wilderness – and eerily similar to the region around Shakxunia, Russia. Right down to the pike in the lakes, as well as the merciless mosquitoes & biting black flies!


  51. Over the years, several times, debka has had me convinced that the end of the world was coming by sometime after lunch. Hasn't happened yet. Took it off my list years ago.

  52. @ Eric #1

    And for those who stay diligent, there are always good buying the dip moments if you are forward-thinking. Don't be obsessed about the past, think about the future (and the conditions it may bring).

    I bought the dip yesterday for family portfolio with AG. The amount of shares traded on this stock is unbelievable. The liquidity is immense and it has 7.5million oz of silver production for 2011 all unhedged. This is a blue chip with upside potential, interesting combination. Their website really tells you all you need to know.

    Point is, there are good deals to be found if you remain patient. I need to learn how to do that with my personal portfolio a bit more :(
    RE: Swampfox

    I am not liking my 2/3rds of my GPL swap @ 4.18 for ISVLF @ 2.88 (*yikes talk about me being greedy*). Right now GPL has the edge and with the good news coming out, I am contemplating moving back. However, I am going to let it play out a little more. I have seen impact roar like no other when silver is on fire. Not about to switch back just yet, but remorse exists when I look at my current positions and outlooks.

  53. Mammoth

    black flies sent my mom to the hospital once. bad memories there.

  54. Folks on the east coast should sift thru last nite's commentary for timer's comments.

    Pablo said: If you use the code "BA29B" at you get free fedex overnight shipping. But the catch is you have to order between $1500 and $3999 and I think it only works on your first order. They had engelhard rounds for $1 premium but the reason I got them here is they took personal checks and I could avoid the wire fees, so for that one instance it was cheaper than gainesville.

  55. Scott

    Couldn't tell if that was a hitback or an agree, but whatever! It looks like we both love First Majestic so that's good enough for me.

  56. Living Well on Gold and Silver

  57. Scott

    btw, don't talk about Impact. It really rankles Ginger!

  58. Trust everyone continues to buy physical gold and silver as we all move forward and those that haven't start doing so to protect their wealth and preserve some buying power. One of the goals for those misdirecting for whatever purposes is to distract us from what really counts and this is the purchase of physical metals, gold & silver.

    Yesterday's final #'s - 60533 May OI, with 6908 PNT's.

  59. Just heard the WH press secretary say that Obama believes that NOT raising the debt ceiling would have grave complications for the U.S. and world economies.
    Full speed head on the spiral into debt oblivion.It's obvious to me that the U.S. is going to try and strategically default in some hoped for long term way and not abruptly.
    Charles Krauthammer had a very interesting take on what he believes how the U.S./Fed. is going to test the default talk waters pretty soon to get a gauge of what the market reaction might be and then how to proceed from there.
    The U.S. Govt. and the Fed. actually think they can control the events leading up to an "almost" default and then reel it all back in before it actually happens? I think they are in for a big suprise as momentum from dangling us close to the cliffs edge will not be a controllable event.
    The gravity of that dangling dollar/default idea will not be well received especially with China and Soro's just waiting for the right moment to chime in.
    Thats how I see it.

  60. Really gotta go now. But will leave you all with this one. Whenever Fear and Greed are whipsawing you around, remember Harry Schultz's last words:

    Wake Me Up At $2400 Gold.

  61. Mammoth - sounds just like Canada!

    40.60 - creeping ever up - the resident Bull is back, even more firmly - holding on tight.

  62. Gold may rise to $1,600 this year, survey shows

  63. Eric #1... I hear you on Debka. It's always gloomy and Israeli oriented obviously, but if the Saudi's did say what they said and all of that is true, it seems relevent just from a nuclear fallout perspective and not just a wwar perspective.
    There is a good reason why the Saudi's are ticked off besides Mubarek IMO.
    I hope it's all false reporting and that potential situation doesn't happen, but there seems to be a serious lack of pick up by our MSM about the Saudi's, Bahrain, Syria etc. lately yet it is actually getting worse.
    Makes you wonder why the MSM doesn't really dwell on the importance of those situations.
    They are huge and will determine how events unravel globally (besides our debt/default).

    Just an opinion. Appreciate your take on it.

  64. I'm so disgusted at the speed of my bank/brokerage accounts to transfer fund between one another. Was all set to buy AG yesterday afternoon but was waiting on the funds.

  65. Great article from James Turk, 2009:

    "A short history of the gold cartel"

  66. re: Krauthammer
    It may turn out him floating that idea is actually the first "testing the waters". Pretty sure I read somewhere that he's CFR, Trilateral, and/or Bilderberger. Naturally, can't find source all of a sudden, but he's NWO.

  67. @ Eric

    The @ Eric in the previous post was suppose to be a Re: Eric. Anyways, yes a fan of AG and I chuckled when your comment about rankling Ginger.


    Obama to speak @ 1:30 Est. about the budget. This should definitely be interesting.

    Here is Bill Downey's little take on it from his email subscription:

    The pressure for USA to work the budget deficit has President Obama addressing the nation this afternoon after the metals market close. Tax hikes and healthcare cuts are the speculation going into the speech --and as news trickles out there is speculation of 100-150 billion dollar cuts in military spending proposed and entitlement spending. Expectations are to suggest curbing domestic spending .... all the usual "talk" that one would expect. This expectation might act to quell the upside on gold today going into the speech.

  68. Just waiting for OEX index expiry Thursday night. Silver to be cut loose as naked colluding shorts fall all over one another to get out FRYday.

  69. DarkPurple

    re: debka

    Oh, I totally know what you are saying. It always hits you right in the gut and makes you say "Oh that sounds so totally true. I totally buy that". Does it to me every time. And yet....and yet....nothing ever seems to come of it. Decided a while back that I had to stop betting my money on it. And that's the bottom line.

  70. Instead of asking if anyone was going to trade First Majestic off the 20 day, should have just done it myself. Grrr. Oh well.

  71. Palin...Very interesting perspective by you. Personally, I love to hear the man talk on a range of subjects. He's definitely out of the box thinking in my opinion and usually right on in his asessments IMO also.

    Apples....So am I regarding the time lag to clear money from one account to another. It's the electronic/digital era and it takes 3 days???
    I can't help but think the money clears much faster and they are sitting on it collectively in some account making interest on it while it "clears". The little guy/gal gets screwed in so many ways it makes me want to just quit and drop out sometimes of the market all together.

  72. For a fact the FED as well as the Treasury have to be saying today WTF! No mad dash into the Dollar or Treasuries.

  73. A Flaw In The Silver Topping Theory

  74. Hey guys sorry if this has been mentioned already. Im on the road. Apmex has america the beautiful silver in.... you really should take advantage of the oppurtunity to buy.


  75. @Eric,

    Fear and greed are integral elements of free markets... although it matters little at this point since, in the current situation, markets are anything but free.

  76. JoeKa

    No offense, but I always wonder if the guys who love that Jokerized pic of Obama did the same with Bush. And will do the same with the next GOP Prez. That would tell more about where they are coming from.

  77. Eric! :D

    Ok.. know what they say about hindsight. At this point I reeeelly wish I had put the $ that I put into SLX into Impact ..or into Revett ..or into Gr.Panther. ....I honestly am starting to think that the only reason SLX is down is because I am in it. .......You'd better HOPE that I don't buy back some Impact. That will be it's death nail.

  78. Eric - none taken. I was deciding between this or the Bush one which also exists.

    Chose this cause it was less wrinkly. LOL

  79. Ging

    Let me know when you buy it, so I can dump. lol

  80. Will Do. ...Meanwhile.. I can send you a list of everything I'm in so you can protect yourself.



  81. JoeKa

    True, the obama one is more current. But I truly believe those of us in this camp need to be equal opportunity two party system slammers.

  82. Just a couple of notes on physical, etf's and miners.

    I have all three, allocated in that order, in a 60/30/10 mix (roughly).

    This is the "why" on each and my two bits, especially for new people, people wondering what to do as an overall strategy, or those with limited funds trying to generate more.

    The physical I use as my core holding to protect (and increase) wealth. I will not be touching this until we are in the final stages of the metal bull, then I will CONVERT it into another, undervalued (e.g., at or near 30 year lows) asset class... likely real estate of all classes. That said, even then, I will likely keep 50% of my physical.

    The ETFs I have played very well and use those pofits to buy and outfit land. This serves two purposes for me: 1) like physical, actual real estate protects my wealth while serving as a place to go and live if we had to, or enjoy when we want to. I know that everyone can't go buy land, but if you can't, I'd be using the ETFs to generate profits to either get your core physical holding to where you want/need it or to by what you need to live in a true economic crunch. Even if our government did EVERYTHING it needed to tomorrow, we would still experience some pretty significant economic pain... think this way: even chemo and radiation started tomorrow may save us, but we will lose all our hair and maybe 100 pounds and puke our guts out while getting "cured." There is no "pain free" solution, period. So prepare what you can.

    Miners: I do this basically to play around and PURELY speculate, but think I'm going to abandon it after the next run up. If you are just starting out or have few funds, I think playing miners is "unwise" and the most risky for you.

    I understand ALL the arguments for playing junior miners and they are valid, but I understand BILLIONAIRE Jim Rogers even better. His theory is this, and I pretty much defy anyone to refute this unless you are purely speculating/betting: "If silver (or insert commodity here) is your choice, why try to figure out which miner has a good management team, isn't going to be effected by regulation or war in a paricular country (see cocoa in Ivory Coast)..." on and on and on. JUST BUY THE DAMN SILVER (or insert commodity here) in either physical form, a future (if sophisticated/experienced) or an ETF or something like CEF... but just make it some kind of "pure" play where you don't have to worry about stock A vs stock B when commodity C's trend is UP.

    So, I have my physical, I use mainly AGQ to run up profits to put to use/invest in other tangible/useful things, and I'm looking to abandon miners altogether because with all the dithering I've done, AGQ (and even SLV) has kicked their collective ass.

    I preface all of this with I DO NOT LEVERAGE (other than what is built into ETFs like AGQ and ZSL).

  83. So if gold hits $1600 and silver $50, do you think the FED will trumpet a 0.25% interest rate hike? How would that affect the price?

  84. Eric - hmm good point there. I'll use this one today, since he's speaking later and rotate into the other one perhaps tomorrow! LOL

    Oh btw, the canned bacon discussion is a sure classic.

  85. Hello, It’s Erica here….the newbie to this world. I've not been able to post because of some technical issues with my cookies and cache (?). Finally worked through it just now.

    An overdue THANK YOU SO MUCH for your encouragement and words of wisdom to my plea for help on Friday. I concur w/Molly Ratchet - I’ve visited a number of different forums and Blogs desperately trying to educate myself and this is the first place I received a welcome, amazing suggestions, and reassurance.

    Apples, your suggestion to limit the charts, Blogs, analyses, was perfect timing. I didn’t go on-line all weekend, spent time planting in my garden and regrouping, got my first good sleep in a while.

    As a direct result of the guidance I received, (don’t sweat the short-term price action, be patient, notice how I’m feeling, don’t buy all at once…) I bought some silver at Monday’s dip and some gold Tuesday morning. I wouldn't say I had "fun" but it definitely wasn't stressful like before.

    Eric#1, thx for reminding me I’m in a position of strength. It's easy to spin out with that red line going up and down. You also suggested I could adjust what I purchase as I learn and feel things out over time. This is where I’m a real beginner. I don't really have anything in mind...I'm trying to figure out what makes sense - or not.

    Can you please actually break down your thinking behind how you figure out an appropriate gold/silver allocation, and the reasons for buying Eagles vs Canadian coins from other countries vs bars vs ???

    Another thing that’s confusing me: The advice to buy smaller amounts on the dips and take things slow has really helped settle me internally. At the same time, since I’m buying for the long-term to protect wealth and purchasing power, do I need to be that concerned with fiat price?

    If it made sense to buy bigger chink sooner than later for my situation (on the dips, of course!) I would. I could move onto getting my emergency/earthquake box together and guns research : ) Save America, I appreciate your reminder about the big picture of preparation and that PMs are a part of that.

    Thanks to all for creating such a supportive learning environment. It’s easy to feel intimidated asking basic questions when so much of the conversation on these forums and Blogs is way advanced.

    Thanks for welcoming me to the party...


  86. All this talk about Tungstenman has me looking into miners of base metals (Al, Ni, Zn, Pb, Sn, Steel, Cu)

    Can anyone recommend quality miners or ones you are watching in this space?

    Seems like a heck of a lot in China though on perfunctory glance!

  87. Interesting article commenting on the Yen/USD Carry trade that sets the tone for the equities markets and commodities market's as Turd referenced yesterday with his USD/JPY chart.

  88. Erica

    Wow. Was it only last friday you posted? There are so many comments on this blog now it feels like a lifetime ago. Let me gather my thoughts for a while and get back to you.

    Anyway, glad to hear you are settled down a bit now. That was my main objective. We don't need any hyperventilating around here. Makes us make bad trades! LOL

  89. Fortinbras,
    Thank you for your post. It was very helpful. ..Gonna ponder the points you made. Lots of good food for thought there.

    Hi Erica,
    Welcome're in the right place to figure out answers to your questions. :]

  90. This comment has been removed by the author.

  91. @R Man J: Maybe not a direct answer to your question...but it may hint at a reply.

  92. Erica-

    This is a truly great site with a bunch of very smart, awake people. That said, even here is it highly unadvisable to post your email front and center- you really never know who is lurking and who might use your email or other information as a portal to hack- maybe your trading account, bank account, etc. There are some bad people out there. You may want to consider deleting the above comment... or maybe I am just paranoid in which case, ignore the suggestion. Just trying to watch out for our little community.

  93. @Erica,

    If I was american I would buy ONLY american coins. when the dollar era is gone it will be easier to trade with 100% recognizable local SILVER coins.

  94. Both parties suck IMO. Thats why we are in our present situation.

    Can't help but think that this Obama proposal will have a big effect on the overall markets.
    Get ready for that and don't let it unnerve you if the markets bounce around.
    The Repub's just came out and had their pre-speech game face/rhetoric going on.
    Soooo tired of the game they all play.
    How can you take any of them serious about a $38 Billion budget deal last week when we had a March 11' deficit of $180 Billion I believe.
    My exact figure might be off but whats a couple Billion among them when it's taxpayer money being tossed around like confetti?

    Happy trading today and good luck to all.

  95. JoeKa

    Some of the "silver miners" really are in truth polymetalic miners instead. They maybe have mostly silver, and really choose to market themselves as silver miners, but actually have a tremendous amount of lead and zinc in the mix. They usually either convert all production to "Ag Equivalent" and/or count it all as a byproduct and count it against their cost of production. Some even come out with a negative cost of production this way. Sounds too good to be true, and guess what maybe it is.

    A couple that come to mind immediatly, without going back and doing a lot of homework, are Hecla and Fortuna. These are producers. One that is still in the preproduction drilling phase is Levon Resources.

    Bon Appetit!

    Not a slam, as I own both Fortuna and Levon.

  96. Pretty nice raid. SIlver hits 40.80. Couple minutes later sits drops to 40.40. And my portfolio loses 75% of today's gains.

    Once again, the GDX is lagging the metals. It's the same hedge fund ratio spread TraderDan always speaks of: long the metal/short the miners. This ratio never goes away. Making it nearly impossible to make money on the gold and silver miners at a time of breakout, all-time highs. I thought last week's action might change this dynamic. But it didn't. It's the same damn thing.


  97. SLW in the red. Was up $1.30 an hour ago.

  98. Erica

    Sorry, can't do the email thing. For the reasons Pining stated. Besides that, I don't want you hanging on just whatever Eric#1 says. My guess is you will get all kinds of well considered advice throughout the day. I'll try to do something big for you by the end of this or the next post. But I'll tell you right now it's only my opinion and I respect others opinions on it as well. And you should too.

  99. @SSK: London tends to sell into the close. Besides, I think the market is waiting for the Prez's debt talk.

    I agree with DPH. This could bounce around a bit with the EE certainly waiting and willing to take advantage of any smell of blood.

  100. Ginger,

    You just named pretty much all the stocks I have, except for Silvermex. I owned GGCRF for awhile, and sold for a 10% profit, but I think I'm ready to get back in. It hasn't had its' "breakout" yet (only moving lower lately), but if Silvermex starts putting silver ounces in the pan, it could take off.

    I finally bought some Impact Silver (IPT.V) with my global account. Now that it's gone down again, I'm going to load up on some ISVLF shares.

    I swear, after these last few trades I'm trying to make, I really want to buy and hold and "wake me when silver hits $100".

  101. Anyone care to discuss the news out of Peru and Bolivia on mine nationalization i.e. PAAS, CDE

    By the way, TF, I agree with your end of month predictions on Ag. It seems to also be confirmed by the falling, and still negative lease rates.


  102. Oil, silver, gold all dropping. Get yer stink bids ready.

  103. Dear Turdophobe

    Since you censored your blog (yesterday)you lost quality. Contrary ideas, foolish comments always have a certain amount of truth.
    It is a pity. I thought you were different...

    A reader from Germany

  104. @Dark Purple

    Political parties take money from people and buy votes with it. People like the idea of having the government take moeny away from somebody else and give it to them. The enemy of freedom is "the man in the mirror."

  105. A poster at Market watch 4matic says Silver is on the verge od collapse Ha ha ha ha

  106. Erica - welcome - you seem to have already learned a lot. A quick answer to one of your questions - in general you cannot beat dollar cost averaging - but if you can afford to buy a bit more physical I would say do so, without worrying too much about price. Yes, look for dips, but don't wait, sitting in fiat money that you want to turn into silver or gold. Gold might be a bargain right now, even. And second, don't worry too much initially about the ultimate balance of a portfolio. I have gotten here almost as much by accident as by design. As Fortinbras notes above, his miners are more for play - and I have to agree. My mining stocks are lottery tickets, and I have mentally lost that money. The paper silver I own is PHY.U which is Spott's silver fund traded on the TSX. So I look to that to help me profit from the rise in physical, without having to build a vault (not that I am that rich, but we do live in a tiny house and I do not want the responsibility of having the amount we can afford sitting in the basement).

    So I really only trade (and that not much) the mining stocks - but as I said, that is money I can lose. It would hurt, but not kill us.

    I don't have percentages off the top of my head, but roughly speaking, here is where I am at:

    still have four dividend equities on the TSX
    Sprott gold fun
    sprott silver fund

    When we decided to get into silver, we divided the total amount of money we were going to invest (we had been sitting on mostly cash), and divided it into 20 units. Then we invested a unit at a time, over a fairly short period of time, until it was all invested. I found the unit idea very helpful. It helped us to balance risk, and to take a few flyers etc. And then we took a little bit extra, and that is my mad miner money.

    I hope this helps at all.

    Whoa - now that's a pretty good whacking going on - but we are fighting on the high side of 40 so far today.

  107. More silver consumption on the way:

    "Alert: Solars Are Ramping – China Calling for A DOUBLING of Solar Plans"

  108. clip from Obama circa February 2009

  109. Another doggone good day to play DOG ;)

  110. JoeKa: I agree with you completely on the President's speech today- they need to do something to prop up the dollar, but during the recent budget "battle" (joke) he couldn't be seen making noises about fiscal responsibility while legislatively fighting for the exact opposite. Now that that is done, it is time to create again give appearance of fiscal restraint. Nothing actual will come of it, of course, but it is the simulation of restraint which matters- I wouldn't be surprized at all with some empty promises that get repeated throughout the media, causing a temporary rise in the dollar and knocking down commodities. As usual, this would present a buying opp- I hope!

  111. Ah, we got us a little battle going on near 40 again.

  112. Pining, I just deleted my post w/email. Wow. That had not even entered my mind!

    Eric, I was getting into that "worried" mindset that I was going to miss something critical to my survival. This PMs stuff is quite a mindfulness practice...


    $4 Trillion. That's about $333B per year. What's the annual deficits these days again?

  114. What a turnaround day. The sun is shining, birds are chirping, the dollar is rising, oil, gold, silver and commodities are falling and US Bonds are once again a safe haven. People worldwide are voting with their wallets, no?

    For some odd reason the sun rose in the West today. Who'da thunk?

    But seriously, it gets so damn frustrating seeing what we're seeing from TPTB. They run roughshod over anything or anyone in their way to retain power and riches. Oh, the humanity!

    Hey, I'm also growing frustrated with Kitco's reporting of spot prices. Anyone got a suggestion of a live, real-time (real unbiased) way to watch the action as it unfolds?

  115. For anybody who is interested, APMEX has just listed for sale the latest five 5-oz coins in their America The Beautiful series. According to the order confirmation, if you purchase by check the cost is $969, which works out to a below-spot price of $38.80/oz. Seems too good to be true!



  117. Was impatient. Bought XAG at 40.289, right before the bigger drop of another 15 cents. Oh well. I'm pretty sure I didn't just buy the all-time 2011 top :)

  118. Erica

    Don't worry, be happy.

    Erica, you should be more of a regular around here. We would totally bask in the glow of your perspectives. Kind of like we've been doing with Ginger for months now. It's all a journey and we all need to revisit now and then, and comment and grow along the way.

    I think I've been at this a lot longer than Ginger, and yet I've learned or relearned a lot from her along the way here in Turd Town, and maybe she's learned a little bit from me too. It's a win-win.

  119. Whats this, a cheeky 3 move knock down into the close... YAWN! No originality these days....

  120. Was not expecting the chance to buy more EXK under 11. BUt that's just what I did.


  121. APMEX kicked me out, said I wasn't eligible for those Americas. Probably due to the fact that all my business goes to Provident :)

  122. WTI at $105.90. The Tungstenman's target is $105. Might see a further drop in the PMs.

  123. The market collapse and subsequent bailouts 2 years ago have psychologically been successful in getting a large majority of Americans to "want their fair share also" type mentality,IMO.
    I thought 2 years ago while I watched it all unfold that I sensed a shift in overall citizen sentiment as something like..."There is nothing we can do, might as well play the game and ask/demand our fair share also. Don't even think about cutting away anything from me if your going to print money and give it away etc"

    That might seem cynical, and possibly it is.
    I can't help but think the majority of the populace is more focused on reality shows, their cheap electronics etc. then the underlying serious issues that we all know about here on TF's site.
    The graduation rate in this country has been steadily plummeting for years and what we now have IMO is a largely uneducated (on the big issue's) propogania influenced entitlement type society by and large.
    "Cut someone's else's, not mine because I don't care about the long term big picture, just mine" mentality.
    It's so obvious to me that large portions of the population are totally disconnected and like it that way.
    The saying "Ignorance is Bliss" could not be closer to reality then it is at this point.

    No one here is in any of that category so I'm not throwing stones here. It just seems to me as a society, by and large, have passed the point of no return in a financially responsible and civil way of conducting themselves.
    Awhile back, I made the "Greeter at Walmart on X-mas/Holiday" comment and the general lack of civilty, self respect and intellectual awareness of where we are headed and have been for quite some time.
    Sorry for the buzz kill, but I see lots of ignorant bliss going on around me.
    I'm glad I met a bunch of concerned, smart people on this website and for TF's effort in letting this happen.
    TF...this site is so much bigger and important in a community sense that we be prepared and keep our patriotic self awareness in check.
    Thank you for providing all of this!

  124. @Larry

    Try this link for a free silver chart:

  125. Larry-

    I'm also frustrated with the endless jawboning that TPTB are doing to move the economy around, I think it's getting impossible to actually trade this market, other than short term scalping. I'm thinking my next trades will be buy and hold til May, then cash out for the summer break.

    Here's another live spot price site:

  126. Yikes – everyone got their hopes up for nothing.

    From the fine print on the APMEX website:
    “Please Note: The supply of this product is extremely limited. Therefore, in order to be fair to all customers who wish to purchase a set, APMEX has implemented a pre-registration and lottery type system to identify specific customers eligible to purchase the 2010 ATB coins from APMEX. Only the lottery winners will receive the email from APMEX with the offering and will be entitled to order one set of these coins.
    If you do not receive an email from APMEX, you will not be eligible to purchase at this time. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause.”

    Here is the link to the APMEX site:

  127. i think that was our last touch down towards 40 before lift off, as i posted last night...look at timer's comments, he's really on to something.

  128. SilverRunNW,
    "I swear, after these last few trades I'm trying to make, I really want to buy and hold and "wake me when silver hits $100"."

    That sooo sums up how I feel sometimes. It gets a bit overwhelming and I really do believe more in the buy and hold strategy unless the fundos change or unless you are just a pretty darn good trader. ..BUT... ...then I read where all you guys are playing these plays so well and making so much money. ..and then I start thinking I need to trade! .....Mostly though.. I do just buy my stocks to hold. ..Like with SLX.. the MINUTE I sell.. ..that will be when it shoots up. So, they are not going to knock me out of it no matter how low it goes! Cause.I'm.Just.Mad.About.It.Now. ...and being mad about it makes me more stubborn. ....How's that for a trading strategy? "/ lol.

    You for sure have been at this a whole lot longer than me and I have for certain learned much from you. ...But you are too kind. ..You couldn't have learned much from me (yet!:) .....except for maybe to stay in Impact Sliver cause I'm out of it. heeheee.

    I think all us newbies here add to the amusement factor for you pros. ;) ...It's kind of like a "aw..look at them, aren't they adorable pretending they can trade/invest and make some money" sort of thing. lol.. ok, just made myself laugh :D

  129. Having difficulty ordering the America the Beautiful coins through Apmex:

    "We are sorry, your Customer ID was not
    selected to be eligible to purchase one of
    these items.(#59810) 2010 5 oz Silver ATB
    5-Coin Set PCGS BU or Better (May
    13th) These items have been removed from
    your cart." Sold out already?

  130. probably not 39.90 today, I will be BTFD right now

  131. APMEX will only sell you the ATB coins if you signed up a few months ago as interested in purchasing. Out of 18,000 sign-ups, 3,500 were selected. I tried purchasing but when I got to Step3 in the shopping cart, I got an error which said I wasn't eligible to purchase them. Lame.

  132. Here is a great live chart..

    Just choose XAG/USD

    and you can also use Netdania:


  134. Owebama speech in 10min. good for a 20c shave. I'll take it please.

  135. Ginger

    "then I read where all you guys are playing these plays so well and making so much money"

    Just remember there's a natural human tendency to talk about the wins and sort of forget about and be quiet about the losers.

    I have them, and I hope I am not out of bounds by saying that I bet Turd has them, and SSK has them, and Yukon has them, and everybody has them. They just don't get as much air time.

  136. Cookie Monster, glad to see you back around posting. You closed up your blog shortly after mentioning Northair one day and I didn't get the chance to let you know I bought in after doing a couple days of DD on that one. Got in @.47 and almost sold @.80, but decided to keep this one til it tests $1.00 to see how it does there. It's a little off that high now, but I might be adding some more positions here soon.

    Just wanted to say thank you for name dropping that one. :)

  137. COMEX raid almost over. GLOBEX raid mounting the troops at the border. IT never ends.


  138. I don't know much but sold a chunk into the open. The miners love to sell off in the early morning after drawing in price-chasers into the highs. I will reload but not counterpunch much at all until the options expiration for Gld and Slv after Friday. Also I don't expect good buying into tax day but I do afterwards. And terrible Thursday approachs. After a great Thursday last week, I am anticipating a return to bad form for Thursday. We see. Caution and patience are the watchwords. Pull up a weekly chart on Silver. Look how high it is. Its been going up vertical. Either it continues vertical or shakes out a bunch in consolidation or it corrects sharply. I am reallocating into Gold now to lessen risk here and still stay in the metal arena. Who knows?

  139. Once we manage to get up and above $41, the $42 level will be the big tell on how high the next leg can take us. Will the EE sit on the sidelines, as they did at the $39 level, or do they pound us with massive paper...can't wait to break $41!

  140. Gold/Silver/The Markets drift lower on lack of direction and likely low volume as they await the president address the budget soon.

    7 Minutes to go, so I turn on CNN. What do I hear? They are using imaging to scan New York to look for remains. It seems like this may reveal privacy of others who are innocent bystanders, but no big deal...

    Obama to speak in 5 minutes.

  141. The colluding call writers will be falling all over one another to get out of those naked short positions for another huge short covering before the weekend. Obvious it was important to keep a lid on gld/slv! Bob Chapman said this: In reference to real money the silver trap JPMorgan Chase and HSBC have been trapped in is in all probably coming to a close. We see default somewhere between $48.00 and $60.00. The losses could be as high as $150 billion. No one knows how settlement will be carried out. There could be total default, partial default or the government could step in and supply the capital for a bailout. We do not know whether Congress or the people, will sit still for another bailout....................
    There is no question that there is an acute silver shortage, so much so that rather than taking delivery of silver, that sellers such as JPM and HSBC don’t have, that bonuses from 25% to 80% are being offered.........................
    Incidentally, if cover or default does not occur in silver there will be a quick explosion to $100.00. We will see just how insane these elitists really are. Such an event would quickly take gold to $2,400 to $3,000 an ounce...........................
    Chapman has an excellent record calling out the shithead elitists and the shit house of paper fiat monies implosion!!

  142. SSK: Liberation Army counter offensive on its way!

  143. DarkPurpleHaze,
    You nailed the way most people are in the dark about what is coming. The sad sad part is that they will be forced wide awake. I just don't see how we avoid it. If the government would right now slash spending by 1/2 ..even the 'untouchable' programs and really tackle our debt and spending.. ..then *maybe* we would have a prayer to avoid the coming situation. ...Niether party has the will to do what needs to be done. They both have let us down. Nancy Pelosi said something to the effect that elections were over-rated. Both parties should essentially be the same. What I think she stated was actually that the ruling class is all that matters. Elections shouldn't matter as much as they do in this country. So, what she is calling for is that both parties be identical in the ways they take the country ...and they have essentially achieved that. Ultimately, what I think our gov't is doing is looking out for the few, the politically connected, themselves. To heck with the rest of us.

    Thus, the preparing that we all feel we are forced into doing currently.

    I am with you. Many many more people need to wake up and prepare. The more that are connected and educated..the better the chance that we have to rebuild something.

  144. By off that high, I meant .80, not $1.00. Anyone looking to do some DD on a silver miner, that one never gets mentioned here and is worth a look.

    International Northair

    After selling off everything but that and an REE play on Monday, I think I am going to hold off on the copper plays I have been looking at and instead snatch up some of these silver miners later this week or early next week since most are trading well below their normal prices now. I appreciate all the input from others on those copper plays, they will be staying on my watch list, decided to stick with REE's and silver miners for the foreseeable future.

    For you REE fans, the REE Guru Jack Lifton has a new interview with BNN.

    J.L. BNN interview

  145. Obama: Good afternoon my fellow Americans;... " Were screwed "

    And God bless America....

  146. See Eric.. ..I just learned something else from you! :] ...Makes sense.. ...I get alot more excited about..proud of.. my wins too. So.. I see your point. The bad apples are all mixed in but who wants to talk about the one that didn't do as well. I don't! Depressing.

  147. LOL Shill.

    ....Not sure I should have actually laughed at that though.


    (word ver: mines !)

  148. HA HA. On netdania, check out the XAG volume at 13:38. Dirty dogs :)

  149. moldy ham sandwich, still expecting a dip to 39?
    if we see 39 this week, i will eat a moldy ham sandwich.

  150. For those of you fed up with the gyrations of miners you might want to consider Sandstorm Gold a goldstream company run by ex SLW people. It has kept its head over the last few days while all around madness rages trades under SSL. I also like my other tout ORKO but it won't move much 'til end of month or when they give us their just completed PEA. This is not for the faint of heart as it does a + or - .20 almost daily.

    Enyoy the site but can't always keep up with the posts. No time and since I'm a long term holder no need.

  151. Yes, afrum, right on!!! Bob Chapman is the man!

  152. I will say this, Obama's speech coach has done a terrific job, the mans acting abilities have improved 10 fold.

  153. @Ginger
    Maybe you could see some trading insight in the book "The Disciplined Trader: Developing Winning Attitudes" by Mark Douglas, byline Emotion kills successful trading... That book has helped me to see that 1)I am not alone in my stupidity and emotional over-reactions in a trade and 2)Once you recognize the pattern(s) causing your losses, go forward and overcome that losing response.

    In times when I am winning in my trades, it is partly because I read that book over and over, not all at once but I put it down until I realize I am losing (AGAIN), then I start in right where I left off reading the last time. Maybe it can help.