Thursday, April 7, 2011

Stuck

It's what we are. Perhaps with the BS ECB rate decision earlier today, we can begin to move higher. I'm still tentative, however. Its Thursday. Lots of pain inflicted on Thursdays past.

The gold-crude coupling has wiggled some this week and that's good. We don't want gold and crude tied at the hip for too long. Gold is money, a store of wealth. Crude oil is a natural resource, a commodity. They should not trade together. That said, I still feel we should keep a very close eye on crude here. The chart looks like it wants to roll toward $110. I hope it does...I've got some May 110 calls that I need to get out of before they expire. However, as you can see below, crude is stuck in a range just like the PMs. I doubt that it can rollover toward the bottom of the range and not drag the PMs down with it.
Regardless of that, gold just looks terrific. After breaking out of a six-month trading range, it is simply consolidating before moving higher. Note how all three dips toward 1455 have been bought, two rather aggressively. This is very encouraging as it shows the conviction of buyers in their belief that the breakout will stick. A move UP through 1464 will cause even more short covering and we may see 1480 pretty quick when it happens. Some of you have suggested rotating out of a few silver miners and into gold miners. Not a bad idea but be very picky. The silver miners still have a long ways to go so you don't want to swap a kick-ass, unhedged junior silver miner for just any old gold stock. If I get some time over the weekend...and I may not as I have a family reunion to attend...I'll try to give you some gold names to watch.
Silver, ahh silver. Some have construed my flat position in silver to be a lack of faith. I assure you it is not. I could not be more excited about the next three weeks. I'm simply hoping for a dip so that I can leverage back into an even bigger position. We all made a lot of money back in February. The buying panic as we approached "first notice" day for the March contract took silver UP about 15% in 8 days. In the end, the Death Star did not technically default...but...The Cartel still doesn't have the silver to satisfy all of those who will stand for delivery in May. In fact, the way that they have been settling for cash, instead, almost guarantees that those standing for delivery will only increase in May. IF we can get a dip here, buy it. I'll be buying it with both hands. The next three weeks in silver are going to be great fun.
And here's a 30-minute chart. Like gold, it has solid support at the low end of the current range. I'll be looking to buy at 39.20 and again at 38.80, IF I get the chance. Fingers crossed. Greed is kicking fear's ass right now and I'm really not liking being out of the silver market.


More later. Have a great day! TF

146 comments:

  1. Thanks for the great update again Mr. F!

    Meanwhile, I'm glad I kept the Panther.. It's finally starting to recover again.. Anyone has an opinion about Minera Andes? I read some positive things about it over at the Yahoo boards.

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  2. Flash News!!!!!!!!!

    Silver institute's 2010 silver Stats out!

    Still a nice gap between mine supply and demand.

    I can't see how cash costs decreased though with oil much higher in 2010 over 2009.

    http://www.silverinstitute.org/pr07apr2011.php

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  3. morning turd. you think we might get an 8am eastern just a good morning post so we dont have to keep blogging on the day priors posts 300 comments thijngy. just a good morning update later type thing so us early risers bloggers can chat on overnight action possible day action. thanks. i tell all i know about your blog here and one day when i make a nice gamble i will feed the turd

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  4. minera andes

    Hmmmm....let me think.

    Rob McEwen-check
    An operating and very nice silver mine-check
    Upcoming spinoff of the copper play-check

    Yes, I've been a very happy owner of Minera Andes. Not selling any of it anytime soon.

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  5. This action is gonna give me an ulcer. Thank you Mr.F for guiding me through this. Oh my.
    Any thoughts on what the "government shutdown" will do to PMs? My guess is that they will come through and avoid the collapse, If they do, will that trigger a selloff?

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  6. Revett is one of the few silver miners with the potential to do a 10x over the next 2/3 years, and the downside is at least 2x (up) from here. No other good size silver miner has that potential.

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  7. I was thinking that with the PM's break out, oil would soon follow. It's interesting that it has been range bound for so long while gold and silver have broken UP. Maybe the Cartel gave up on holding down the PMs and decided to focus on Oil, they are trying desperately to hold 110. But then again, there may be something about the whole oil storage situation also.

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  8. I got to repost this from the end of the previous thread. Because it shows what the dangers some new players face in the precious metals market.

    Maradona writes:

    "AUY was in the low $12s a few days ago and is about 1.7% off its all time high. What a dog right?"

    Pull up the five year chart on AUY. Then compare it with the price with GLD. One of them is up 20%. The other is up nearly 150%.

    So yeah, on a long term basis, AUY is a gelatinous pile of dog turd.

    Moreover, the all time high of AUY was $19. When you might ask? Back in '08 of course. IF you did not trade pm stocks during that time, you are unaware of just what silver and gold stocks can do when under attack. AUY dropped from 19 to under $4 in a blink of an eye. And trust me, in July of '08 it felt exactly like it feels today. Lke the world were gonna end. Like the gov would go bust any minute. Like you needed to stock your basement with canned salmon and bottles of whiskey for barter in the coming apocalypse.

    Anyways, carry on. I cannot believe SLW has fallen back down to 38.86.


    SK

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  9. yeah if govt doesnt shut down will dollar temp spike making metals soft. good q jimmy

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  10. Waiting for a big dip in XAG so I push the pedal to the metal.

    Buyers keep turning up, though, twisting my arm, forcing me to put on small day trades. Bastards :-)

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  11. I'm fully stocked on both salmon and whisky. But it's not for barter! Those are basic food groups to me!

    But seriously, yes the parallels are beginning to scare me a tad. I keep watching the price of gas too. Feels like '08 all over again and we know how that turned out. I was mostly in oils at the time. Complete devastation.

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  12. What is to stop those who settle for cash to turn around and invest that cash (+ 20% premium or so) into more silver...ad infinitum?

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  13. I know one thing HFT computers are directly linked to the dollar, silver,exk intraday prices add it all up and it's a daytraders dream.

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  14. eric#1:

    re, minera andes: they're not doing a spin off

    they're doing a spin out, there's a difference

    in this particular spin out, stockholders of record receive one share of the new company for every share they hold in Minera Andes

    while dilutive, the net effect is a wash. The Inv Rel guy indicated an estimated 31% dilution.

    But you get to own a piece of one of the largest copper discoveries with somewhere near a billion pounds of copper. If I have my numbers screwed up, please forgive me.

    So stop saying spinoff, it's inaccurate.

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  15. Fortuna has been ripping. I wonder if fears about Peru are starting to ease?

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  16. @ MrGneiss

    Thanks for your info on Revett that helped me get started on my DD on it. Currently it is my largest position (by a good amount) and look forward to the coming days.

    @ Ginger

    Holding strong with SLX. The more I read the more and more I like this company. The shorts are playing on the warrants it seems, and it will take some buying accumulation to get our stock going. The fundamentals are strong in this company, the share price is targeted. Giving this one a little more patience, as I like the Bag of Gold philosophy. Don't trade the charts (although now I am being greedy and trying), trade the fundamentals.

    -
    Scott

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  17. I stand corrected.

    Word ver: bieraill
    sounds like one of our friday night threads.

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  18. new turd site suggestion a SILVERBOT for daily silver price action

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  19. Sumo I haven't made a XAG move in a few days. Have 30% of account waiting. Thats my amount for day trading. My long term hold is kicking ass compared to my day trading. Lots of rookie mistakes early screwed me. Mainly stops. Lately it is because the EE raid isn't what it used to be.

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  20. XG +7%
    Added XG to my pool at the open yesterday based on a David Morgan recommendation. Yesterday it turned out to be a bad idea, but today I'm feeling smarter.

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  21. @ Scottj88

    Did you check out the link I posted for silver's 2010 silver stats? Very interesting, there is still a huge suplly shortfall.

    For silver investor's very important info.

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  22. There are plenty of miners that will go up 10x if silver hits a hundred or higher. I bit the bullet on Brent Cook's subscription, and am up 10% since monday, all with names i've never seen mentioned here. Been working through DD on them and they are all very promising so far. Pont being, making money in juniors right now is as easy as shooting the side of a barn.

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  23. Drudgereport.com

    7.4 Earthquake in Japan and new Tsunami Alert...

    Hopefully not as big of an issue..

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  24. C'mon Blythe. Hit us good. I need to buy back in..

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  25. averagejoe: I'm making small moves, waiting for the big one.

    In XAG I have a core position and a trading position. Waiting for an opportunity to double up on the core.

    Also have buy-and-hold positions in miners (ISLV, AG), AGQ, and bullion.

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  26. What's up? XAG getting hammered right now on 1min chart. Maybe we'll get Turd's 39.20 very soon??

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  27. ok, guys & gales i am not waiting for another dip i will shoot now

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  28. Tsunami alert. I'm holding most positions now. If a freaking nuclear meltdown led to record prices in PMs and near all time highs in the Dow, isn't this bullish?

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  29. Seriously though, once Minera get this copper transaction (whatever you want to call it) out of the way (was it June?) and the market realizes that we've got this thing boiled down to a pure, sweet, Rob McEwen, silver and gold miner, then I think Minera will start to feel the same sort of lovin' that we've been seeing in First Majestic and Endeavour. IMHO :D


    BTW, new 7.4 quake in Japan

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  30. I also bought back on AGQ and EXK, just before the dip....sigh.....I was tired of sitting on the sidelines....sigh. But it will be in the black soon enough

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  31. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  32. @Eric#1 and Jake the Snake

    Thanks for the info.
    On the Yahoo boards there were similar comparisons between Minera and first Majestic. I'll dig into it further and put some CADs in.. Tnx

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  33. @ Robert Leroy Parker, yes thanks, I've been trading the miners for a couple of years, for Revett I meant at these prices if RC is approved, please find another silver miner with a market cap over $100 million that has as much upside with silver at these prices as Revett and I'd throw some money into it.

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  34. Repeat of yesterday. The same numbers keep popping up. On SLW, it's 45.35. You have to buy it hand over fist. I just did. ON the GDX, for whatever reason, 62.65 keeps being the pivot point. I am liking this recovery.

    To trade SLW, buy anywhere near 45.35. Sell anywhere at 46 (but don't get greedy). This trade is gonna keep on working until it doesn't anymore!

    SK

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  35. From what it seems, the earthquake is a little closer to Fukushima/Tokyo than the 9.0 one...

    Today's Earthquake report:
    http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/at00ljadqj.php

    March 11th Earthquake report:
    http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/usc0001xgp.php

    --
    Hope Fukushima doesn't get hit again =(

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  36. In Utah the coin dealers are are out of silver Eagles for two to three weeks. They usually have plenty in stock.

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  37. Forgot to mention EXK and SLW

    Did I say I like Silver?

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  38. Eric#1:

    I'm with you and interestingly enough McEwen owns 31% of MA and will also own 31% of the new copper company.

    Essentially, they are transferring an asset (the copper find) into a new company on a one for one basis. McEwen has said he intends to retain his position and from what I can see he'll have his team running the show. It's not that he doesn't believe in the value, it's just that he intends to stay focused on the gold/silver operations.

    Now, for me, this is as good as it gets.

    A long term pure asset play.

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  39. @ Scottj88

    Have you thought about selling calls in Revett once they get their AMEX listing? I would probably do that instead of selling it outright if I sense a near term silver peak is near.

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  40. Aurcana, only problem is their shares are pretty diluted right now.

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  41. Revett looks interesting. But the volume sucks. I cannot buy a miner that's trading 26,000 shares. It's illiquid.

    SK

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  42. TOKYO • Japan’s northeastern coast has been rattled by a strong aftershock. The Japan meteorological agency has issued a tsunami warning for a wave of up to one meter


    One metre nothing to worry about I guess.

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  43. I've been following TPJ for a bit. Haven't committed to pulling the trigger yet, but I'm thinking that this could have a nice percentage move if the miners in general take off. Anyone here bought in?

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  44. Nothing to worry about, except the radiation that has been leaked/dumped into the ocean getting swept on shore via this small tidal wave. Those poor people can't catch one break.

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  45. dead of night 12 am japan www.earthcam.com/japan/tokyo

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  46. From NHK TEPCO Live TV:

    http://www.livestation.com/channels/123-nhk-world-english

    There is no problem with the plants, and the workers have been evacuated to safe grounds.

    ---
    Hopefully just a scary event, with no real damage...

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  47. However... we should take what they say with a grain of salt... they have lied before. I am just repeating what I heard from the news (which is not to be trusted always, but this is the best information out there as of right now).

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  48. Jake

    Oh, absolutely! The market was basically valuing Minera at a price that was giving the copper play away for free. McEwen was smart enough to see that. The announcement of the spinOUT gave, what? a 20% pop right away. He totally believes in the value of the copper property. But he's also a master at getting the market to reflect those values as well. That goes right to why it's always good to ride his coattails.

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  49. SSK,
    I don't have the impressive orchard you do, but I did get a deal on 7' apple and peach trees that should begin bearing in a couple of years.

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  50. now breaking disinformation that iran is building nukes

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  51. Eric#1:

    not to mention the personal pocketbook impact of twice as many appreciating shares

    jake gonna take off all my clothes and roll around in some feathers now

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  52. We have one apple tree in our yard. It's a royal pain in the ass just keeping that one properly sprayed and pruned back. I don't know what I'd do with a whole friggin orchard. Quit my job and just spray and prune apple trees I guess.

    The pies are great though.

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  53. Be careful. Easy for a day trade to turn into a longer term relationship if she trips those algos to sell. Could become the new temporary poster child for the term bagholder. I am trying to restrain myself and wait for the big one that should be coming.

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  54. Jake

    Well, never forget that either. Rob McEwen is always looking out for....Rob McEwen!

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  55. @SSK

    How about Impact Silver..It's lower today..

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  56. Two new separate quakes in Japan both 7.4
    Those poor Japanese people.
    Another one earlier in Mexico 6.3 What the heck is going on?
    The equities market tanked immediately but is recovering (of course).
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


    I couldn't agree more with Turd about feeling uneasy about being out of the PM market.
    I'm totally out right now waiting for a BTFD also. Yesterday was a good day early on and I pulled the ripcord on everything at the peak.
    Including Kaminak Gold which I have mentioned.
    Ihave this general sense of unease regarding the Govt. shutting down temporaily and the effect on the markets overall.
    Lots of uncertainty in the markets this a.m. for sure.

    Crude will take off or just enough to exit your position Turd (I hope). Hang tough!

    My SDS is in the same boat for June 12'
    Somehow I think I'll be OK as I have no faith in our Govt. and /or for this surreal market to just keep going up, up, etc...


    Keep a positive thought/prayer for the Japanese.

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  57. @ Jake..." gonna take off all my clothes and roll around in some feathers now"

    LMAO!

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  58. Sounds like we're in same boat Sumo.
    Hi Hoe(blythe) Silver

    Taking a break today and going to Jays game. Then watching the masters after.

    Have a good day everybody. Go Jays

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  59. Golden Predator finding some love today

    http://www.goldenpredator.com/documents/GPDNR11-14-BreweryCreekWinterResults2FINAL_000.pdf

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  60. Here are some little lottery tickets that I bailed out on over the past few weeks. Anybody see any reason I should reload on the next dip? I don't. Generally speaking though, I've been bailing on pure lottery tickets and sticking with smallish producers. Just my own big picture decision.

    Golden Goliath
    Camino Minerals
    Caza Gold
    Coral Gold

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  61. As long as Tokyo doesn't explode this will all be bullish for stocks and precious metals. Japan will use any remaining power sources to print money.

    Hope no one sold into that. Record gold/silver and near record stock prices make it clear that even a nuclear meltdown at Fukishima couldn't keep stocks and metals down for more than a few days.

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  62. SSK I commented at the end of the last blog thanking you for your GDX/ABX comments and said I was waiting to catch a position in SLW at 45.35 . . . (also nice info you posted for eric on SLW).

    Anyway I got distracted here and missed 45.35 . . . didn't stay down there long. If more EE mischief I'll probably get a second chance. I opened some ITM May GDX long calls and from these plan to sell ATM call at tops and buy back on dips. If anyone knows of a better stock to do this that tracks gold please let me know. I'm a gold/silver newbie.

    Appreciate all the helpful comments I have received since I started being addicted to this blog.

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  63. All I did was walk the dog, and there are 200 new comments and a new thread. Will catch up, but I left Ginger hanging - totally forgot the link to the canning site:

    http://www.pickyourown.org/botulism.htm

    It looks like it might be quite kid friendly too, written very clearly.

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  64. USGS just revised the Japan quake to "only" at 7.1
    This was not a after shock but a separate new one in a new location.
    Hope the Tsunami warning stays at just that.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    I belong to a newslatter (Frank Curzio) and he's been talking about Fortuna Silver.
    I know little about it except that it has been on my daily watchlist and I kind of lost track of it. But after looking at his write up etc. on it and checking the charts lately, it looks interesting at this point and I missed the boat the last 5 days on it. Damn!
    Not pumping it, just mentioning it. Anyone enjoying any success in Fortuna? Hope so.

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  65. Bro,

    Harldy a substantial orchard. More like Noah's Ark: two of each. Apparently I've planted my apple trees too close to this old black walnut tree. Black walnuts are bad news for lots of trees/plants. Especially apples. Who knew?

    Now if only the rain stopped falling long enough for the soil to dry so I can turn the garden with my bad-ass new roto-tiller.

    Anyway, the crazy thing about Turd's blog is just how many silver miners there are. I mean, I have never heard of Revett, Impact, or Golden Predator before Turd's blog. What we are seeing are former penny stocks turning into real juniors. Just look at EXK. It was nothing a year ago. If only I had taken James Turk's buy rec back then . . .

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  66. Eric said…
    “But seriously, yes the parallels are beginning to scare me a tad. I keep watching the price of gas too. Feels like '08 all over again and we know how that turned out.”
    ---------------------------------
    Given what PM’s did when the bottom fell out back in 2008, what would prevent recurrence?

    Would like to see some rational points on why it would be foolish to sell physical PM’s now, with the expectation of buying them back in a few months.

    Thanks,
    Mammoth

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  67. Stephen,

    You plan on selling atm calls at the tops? Good luck.

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  68. Stephen,

    Cheers. I missed the 45.35 too but did mange to pick some up at 45.43. I didn't buy as much this time around. I am waiting for EXK to get whacked for a big re-up.

    SLW ain't exactly tearing up the field, is it? Hope you saw that chart from the street I linked to earlier. It puts 46.34 as the break out number. But seeing as we hit 46.44 . . . .

    SK

    SK

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  69. SSK,
    I think your roto-tiller is a better investment than most penny metal mines. As a matter of fact, you might turn up more silver in your garden than they will. They are in the pennies for a reason.

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  70. Mammoth

    I hang my hat on the idea that in '08, everybody thought "deflationary depression here we come". This time I think enough people are trained to figure that more weakness just brings more money printing, thus more inflation in the long run. Thus a dip in commodities would be shallower than last time.

    I could be totally wrong and get my head handed to me, again.

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  71. Stephen...I've been watching GG for awhile now and it tracks gold's movement nicely and relatively quickly.
    They have lots of proven rresources and yearly production. From what I know, they are located right next door to alot of juniors who potentially/probably have lots of Au/Ag in the ground.
    I can't tick off the names right now (way too many abbreviated symbols going through my head).
    I'm out of my GG position right now but looking for a reasonable entry point again soon.

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  72. Robert Leroy Parker

    Can't tell if you're being sarcastic. I was thinking of making a bull call spread on inter-day volatility. Bad Idea? Why?

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  73. Time for me to fly out of here. But summary of trades for today are:

    Major trim on SLW, because it's been a dog.
    Minor trim on AG and EXK because they've been really strong.

    Does that make any sense? Well, it's a done deal now.

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  74. SSK & Bro,

    Good for both of you! One of the best long-term investments (as far as sustainability goes) you can make (providing you plan on staying put for a while) is planting fruit trees, nut trees, and berries, not to mention that you are also doing something positive for the people who will be here after we are gone.

    Free advice being what it is – for anybody who is purchasing or will purchase real estate – one of the first things you may want to do is pencil out a map of your property and plant fruit trees, nut trees, and berries as soon as you can. June will make it ten years on our property, and the apples are just now producing. The plum & cherry trees have been giving fruit for a few years and the blueberries are just now getting going. The English & Black Walnuts grow s l o w l y. In a nutshell, plant early; pun intended.

    Now…on to more talk about canned salmon.
    Never mind – back to Silver talk instead…
    ------------------
    Eric, thx for the comment.
    Others feel like chiming in re: 11:33 a.m. post?

    -Mammoth

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  75. Not sarcastic, i just think calling tops in PMs is extremely difficult.

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  76. DPH I just looked at DD chat and it does have very different trading pattern than either GDX or ABX. I think better for the swing trading that i do with my core position. Thanks for mentioning. Do you have a ballpark entry in mind for yourself?

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  77. They finally posted my windfall SLW dividend of $6.00. Then hit it with a 0.90 foreign tax. There went my lunch money!

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  78. SSK glad i didn't buy at 45.35 yikes! where is support?

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  79. Fortuna is THE Peru play to have in my opinion - it's massively undervalued. Yes, it's a better and safer play than Tinka by far, better than Bear Creek as well in my opinion, but I own all three. I have massive exposure to Peru and have cash on hand standing ready to buy any dips that may come - particularly with the election drama some are pushing.

    Yukon

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  80. Question for the community, anyone buying physical at these prices? I am holding strong but I like to make a weekly purchase and was wondering if you folks are doing the same or waiting for a dip..

    TYIA

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  81. @Shill: I buy frequently. I buy on up days and down days. In the end it really is about how many ounces you have, not whether you paid $1,450 or $1,415 per ounce for them.

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  82. next support for SSW is 45.26 and below that 44.76

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  83. By the way, if you want to start doing your due diligence on something that all the subscription newsletters, the Seekingalpha's and all the other sites are going to finally start talking about in earnest again look into the Golden Triangle in British Columbia and make sure you have at least one good investment in play there.

    Yukon

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  84. Who bought that F***ing dip? Tsunami advisories lifted. Watch the markets go bananas now.

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  85. Eric #1,

    Glad to see someone finally mention Golden Goliath here

    I own GNG through a newsletter subscription, and the property looks incredible, but the price action is lousy so far

    Stickin with my $1000 lotto ticket though and not letting go unless bad news arrives

    I'm not half as smart at doing due diligence as most of the jr analysts here, so I normally stay out of the miner discussions. However, since there's more buzz about Rob McEwen today, I was curious if you'd heard of Sniper Resources?

    http://www.sniperresources.com/

    SIP:CVE

    I read an interview last week in the Gold Report and it was mentioned that McEwen is also heavily invested in Sniper as well

    Check it out if you have time, love to hear what you guys think. It seems worth a look if RE is assct'd, just a thought

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  86. New guy here. What resource does everyone use to find these jr miner plays? Looking for a place to get started, tia.

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  87. Mammoth and SSK, thanks for the feedback.

    word verification - bothlo
    Is that a sign that gold and silver are headed way higher?

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  88. For those that buy and sell options...
    I don't know if the interface is good, but I just came across an optionshouse.com ad - pricing is 8.50+0.15/contract, which is far below the tdameritrade price i pay of 7+.75/contract - especially if trading contracts in the hundreds... I am currently waiting to see if tdameritrade will cut my per contract cost, but so far it's not looking good. i'll keep those interested up to date on my findings...

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  89. Stefan: some background info+interviews on Sniper Resources here:

    http://www.kereport.com/?s=sniper+resources

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  90. Stephen...No entry point in mind.

    I usually keep an eye on gold price momentum/volitility and look at GG to see where it has been recently at a similar point gold price wise vs the GG price itself.
    Hard to explain as we all have our slant at how we look at these things.

    I have no defined entry point but look at things as they develop and trade on my perception of momentum and just a "feel" for how the entire market is reacting across the board. Not professional by any stretch but you can't underestimate your gut when you've been watching the entire market everyday, all day long like I do.
    GG does underperform sometimes(not often) just like SLW does which isn't real often except maybe a little bit lately.
    I think GG is underlooked and they have lots of production and neighbors who look like takeover targets.
    I think GG will buy someone out very soon.

    Trust your gut and let things ride when you know your right.
    I don't have the guts yet to buy options with only a month or so to expire.
    I prefer to go out in time, out of the money and look for where the smart money is in the OI category.

    Keeping my powder dry and ready for when I feel it's right.

    It usually tracks the Au price nicely. I had Jan 12 $70 calls I think I bought at approx.$.68 about 5 weeks ago and cashed out yesterday at $1.20 something.

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  91. Shill,

    Why would you not buy physical today? Based upon gold's price silver should be somewhere between $70-$90. Is gold overpriced?

    Every single day silver is below $70 you are being given a gift. An opportunity to protect yourself and position yourself for one of the greatest wealth building opportunities in the history of the world.
    The most common instinct of a buyer is to look at someone who bought something for say $8 and look at where they have to buy it at $40 and say, "It's too late for me!" Don't fall into that way of thinking! Focus on the upside you CAN have and understand that the upside to $70-$90 is at today's prices and thereby the value of the dollar.

    Long term the dollar is dead to make way for a new currency. Long term gold and silver will go up until that currency materializes and their final value will be based on the % of PM's as backing of that currency and that currencies buying power relative to the PM's.

    If you think gold is going to $2000 then silver will go somewhere between $100-$133. Every day my wife goes into the coin shop she tells me about all the people going in to sell their silver for fiat. Maybe they bought at $1/oz or $4/oz or something and made a nice profit, but they got out JUST AS THINGS WERE GETTING INTERESTING!

    I'm rambling so I will cut this short. Do not hesitate to buy physical gold or silver at these prices. Hesitate over paper securities that play towards gold and silver all you want.

    Yukon

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  92. Stefan

    Golden Goliath was the one of that list that I just hated to let go of. Probably the first one I buy back if I change my mind. Agnico Eagle and Sprott are heavily involved.

    Never heard of Sniper. Great, more homework to do.

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  93. Yuk

    I wish I had Mrs. Eric#1 spying on coin shops for me. That would save me some time....

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  94. Thanks Sumo

    Yukon, since you are hanging out here today I wanted to quickly say how much I enjoy your blog. I look forward to reading it each day - it's truly a pleasure - and your picks are clearly winners

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  95. Stephen,

    Couldn't help it. Bought some more SLW. I intend to flip this quick. Don't know if we'll see 46 again today.

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  96. Robert Leroy Parker

    Sorry I did not see your reply earlier . . . I am the absolute worst at calling tops in anything including metals . . . maybe my communication was poor . . . selling the ATM option adds cash to my account and if the trade goes against me (meaning the value of the ATM call goes up instead of down from the recent peak in equity pps I can hold on to it and still close the spread with a profit. Basically vertical spreads reduce the amount of money an options trader can lose when their on the wrong side of the trend.

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  97. Eric,

    I know what you mean about letting go! I was surprised to hear about Sniper myself, new name

    Many major players involved with GNG, but the long term chart just stumps me...I read somewhere that the biggest problem with GNG is that the property is SO big with SO many old mines that they don't know where to start

    The stars are all aligned as far as their books are concerned, it seems

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  98. Thanks Stefan.

    I've been very busy lately and I don't have the time to hang out here like I used to. I miss it. Turd's site is like a weird online home for people like us is it not?

    Glad you enjoy the blog!

    Yukon

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  99. We are seeing the same re-test of the GDX as yesterday. 62.45. If today is yesterday, we will see a bounce back to 63 again. And that's going to be my sell signal. I do not like the lower lows in SLW even if they do present nice buying opps.

    SK

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  100. SSK I chickened out again . . . i keep thinking we get an EE attack that causes SLW to pull back. Watching how quickly SLW recovered I'm becoming more confident in your short squeeze analysis. You think that 46.37 will hold even if EE hammers silver down to 39 or 28.80 ???

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  101. Yukon -

    Nice reality check. Well said! I was just thinking this AM that silver is up 100% since last summer, but I think it will go another 400% before it's done!

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  102. Stephen,

    No. SLW will tank if silver drops below 39. I mean, SLW will TANK.

    They all will. The fall is always exponentially greater than the gain. Every time. Even EXK.

    SK

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  103. Stephen....the only "gut" example I can give you was an obvious one that happened this morning.
    I was out getting some groceries when the Japan quake hit and the market tanked a bit.
    Look th athe GG chart and you'll see what I mean. Gold did not react like GG did but GG sank with the broad market temporarily. That was a oportunity right there.
    I can't say truthfully I would have jumped in right there, but I would have thought real hard about it.
    Obviously I don't count on quakes or tragedies to make investment choices but if your near a TV computer and things happen in the market (for whatever reasons) you have to act quickly.
    Keep your eye on GG from where it bottomed out this a.m. vs. the Au price that didn't over react. GG will play catch up with a little volitilty or PM momentum. Maybe not today but it will, and quickly at some point.

    My GG entry was $.66 and my exit was $1.30. Had to look to make sure myself. I had 25 contracts. Only had 15 in SLW yesterday but that was good enough for me as far as yesterday went.

    I have 170 in SDS for June 12 but only have to get to $.11 to get even. I like my chances. This market will correct at some point but not for long.

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  104. COMEX buzzsaw came a little early today. Will be interesting to see if we repeat yesterday's little rally into the close. It keeps feeling like the floor is going to fall out from under us. But then it doesn't.

    SK

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  105. I like the way you roll DPH . . . I have a lot to learn . . . encouraging to find someone who uses options similar to the way I do. Thanks for your comments . . . hopefully I can take a ride up on the GG express this next time around with you.

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  106. Sumo,

    Thanks again for the link. I had a chance to watch this video with the CEO. He expects to sell to Barrick in 2013 for between $ 4 - 5 :

    http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/9041

    Here's the Gold Report link where I first heard Sniper mentioned:

    http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/9041

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  107. SSK is exactly right about downwards corrections and how disproportionate they are to when the PM's correct vs. slowly rising vs. quickly rising.

    Nimbleness and having a feeling for the pulse of the markets and news events is critical in my opinion.
    This Govt. shutdown is really keeping the broad market uneven today.
    I get the sense people have one foot out the door and are leaning either way based on the slightest news events.
    Stay ready, buy or sell or just wait for the moment that feels right.

    Turd is a awesome chart guy with loads of experience but you know he also has that certain "gut" quality about the markets. I don't know how to explain it but if you look at enough charts and try to take the whole picture in everyday , the charts just speak to you about their intentions or where the momentum may take it.
    That might sound flimsy but that's how I see it for the most part.

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  108. Yukon if your still lurking thank you very much for that reply. Been a physical buyer since 05...Yes you are spot on ( no punt intended )

    Thank you and enjoy your day

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  109. oldNavy,

    No one knows for sure how much it will go up, but consider this. We have never seen anything like this happen before and hopefully we will never see this again. The entire world is being flooded with liquidity in the form of made up electronic digits and paper with ink. The entire worlds financial structure will collapse and be replaced - this will not happen without severe hardship for many.

    We always translate our oz's into dollars, pesos, pounds, etc when it's that way of thinking that will get us in trouble. It's been said by the wisest among us that we have to start thinking of our wealth in oz's and that's completely true.

    Understand this... Your oz's ARE your wealth. If you have your oz's you have arrived at the top of your wealth pyramid. You have finished and you have won the game so to speak. What I'm trying to say is that we spend our time trying to figure out how many dollars our oz's are worth. My oz's are worth $39.51 today! I bought them at $20.00 look how rich I am! That thinking is flawed. The dollar amount of gain is irrelevant. It is the oz's you bought that define your "richness". Even among those of us who have bought silver and gold have still not woken completely up to the new reality yet.

    If I walked up to any of you today and offered to buy your silver at $100/oz, but you would be prohibited from buying silver again would you do it? What about 500/oz? 1000/oz? 10,000/oz? I tell you now that there is no number I would sell for today if I couldn't get back in.

    Yukon

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  110. Every now and then i check this website to see how we are progressing on our everyday inflation. Get a load of this Turdites - 45.7% annualized inflation:

    http://www.grandpappy.info/hhyperin.htm

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  111. If we are still above 39.20 tomorrow, I may have to reenter. The correction I expected hasn't materialized. Could be a March 1-6 scenario where a head fake is followed by crazy panic buying.

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  112. So busy catching up on comments, then look over at the one minute charts - silver could be shaping up for a rally - gold not so sure.

    Yukon - I own a tiny share in Tinka. But now I want Fortuna, which I hadn't heard of before. Too many companies to pick from. The TK is pretty much a lottery ticket, but now I wonder about switching to Fortuna - hmmnn, guess it is back to the books, but I think they both look good.

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  113. Yukon.... I will sell you all of my Silver at $10,000 and never buy silver again(gasp!)
    I will however buy lots of Au in place of it;-)

    Only kidding. I know what you were getting at and agree completely with you.

    I'm not selling any Au or Ag anytime soon or possibly ever...unless a global currency system is in place that seems to make sense and is adhered to by evryone as the new system for the next 50-100 years or whatever.
    I personally don't think that is going to happen anytime soon.

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  114. housing math - $40 by tomorrow. I am getting more and more convinced - 39.20 became resistance almost immediately it would appear.

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  115. Eric,

    While I agree with your post I think there is a big difference between 08 and today that could result in a just-as-intense selloff in commodities as we saw in 08. Perhaps even a greater one. It's trader mentality.

    In 08 most investors watched their portfolios decline daily and listened to their brokers who said "ride it out". I don't know too many people (not one actually) that sold everything in 2008 waiting to buy back at the bottom.

    My dad was among that boat and his miners took a beating. He's recovered now but 2008 is fresh in his mind. He is now of the mindset that if "somthing happens" he will sell everything immediately and buy back in later.

    Today you can clearly tell even by reading posts on this blog that a greater percentage of people are worried about the future and are ready to bail 100% at a moment's notice. Perhaps this blog is skewed towards people ready to bail but those I talk to outside of "here" are in that boat.

    Anyway, my point is that if even the slightest hint of a pullback we are more likely to see much more liquidity exit the markets in a much shorter period of time than 2008. My guess is that the dip in commodities will be as deep if not deeper than 08 regardless of questions surrounding inflation vs. deflation.

    I also agree PM's will be the best hedge but they will also suffer through the initial mass exodus of liquidity.

    If I could time the market to be in fiat and buy PM's at that particular moment, - that's when I would buy my AG.

    Unfortunately, it's never easy timing the market and there are no guarantees you will be able to get your hands on AG at the bottom when what fiat there is swashing around is trying to find a new home quick.

    Food for thought.

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  116. @ sumo

    Hi sumo. I must've missed your blog address and it doesn't come up with your profile. Can you point in the direction? Thanks. ;)

    Word ver = colead as in "Gold and silver will colead all the currencies in the world."

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  117. Yukon,

    Here's another thing to consider. If you are thinking of planting fruit, and nut bearing trees and shrubs then buy them as early as you can this year - they will sell out. Currently, the tree farms and nurseries aren't equipped to handle the amount of buyers there will be for people looking to buy. Premiums will go to extremely high heights as people look to relearn and practice what they have forgotten.

    If you are in the nursery/tree farm business you are going to make money hand over fist in the coming years. Cut back on your shade and ornamental trees and shrubs and greatly increase your food bearing holdings. You won't be disappointed!

    Yukon

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  118. SLV just turned green. GDX at 62.65 again. I'm telling you, today is yesterday. Trade accordingly.

    SK

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  119. DPH appreciate your comments. If GG has a habit of filling the gap a good entry point would be 52.16 from tuesday's close.

    I have not found that gut feeling yet so I rely on TF and grateful to his blog . . . i marvel at him and you and SSK and appreciate your comments.

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  120. XTY...I lost track of Fortuna in my extensive watch list. (It's too big, if thats possible)

    I've been starting to watch it and am waiting for a lower entry point( I hope).
    Same thing with Kaminak. I think Kaminak has a solid future. They just found 97% Au minerization from their surface samples...97%!!!
    Can't wait to hear what the core drill results might yield later this summer.
    I'm not in Kaminak right now but will be again soon enough.

    Just throwing another name out there I have not heard mentioned. I have no position in it yet.
    Orofino Gold.
    Very early stage but given it's location and neighbor, it sounds like a sleeper at $.11

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  121. Irene, I don't have a blog, but thanks for asking :-)

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  122. Well sumo, maybe you should! ;)

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  123. Anytime Yukon,

    Any reader can tell where your time is going. Keep on keepin on with exactly what you're doing and you can't NOT keep on growing to whatever scale you wish to see for your site

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  124. Yukon,

    I've taken some peaks at your blog and can heartily recommend it. That's some amount of quality work in there.

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  125. Xty,

    Fortuna is a safer play by far. If your holdings are limited I would consider selling your Tinka for a profit and moving to Fortuna. It's always good to have a few speculative plays of which Tinka definitely falls into.

    DarkPurpleHaze,

    Haha, you got me and got the point. You'd only trade for something else with real value. Imagine when the entire world realizes that electronic digits and paper are the great lie and stealer of wealth of our age. People will then accept nothing that isn't backed by something real... something tangible.

    Now imagine the whole world operating under that thought. Can you say what a commodity will go to in that environment? Especially a non-perishable one? How do you place a value on a finite amount of oz's which everyone is desperately trying to get their hands on? I can't. No one can. All numbers and attempts at valuation are futile.

    All we have to do is hold onto our oz's, get more as we're able, and patiently wait. The end of this great game is a certainty. The winners will not be those who bought early and sold out even if late. The winners will be those that bought whenever they could and then held all the way to the end. The man who bought at the very lowest point, but then sold right before the end will have nothing compared to the man who bought almost to the very end but held all the way through to that end.

    Yukon

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  126. I just placed a buy order on SLW ITM long calls.

    They have not been able to shake silver down much today so far. A big raid is still possible this afternoon will be interesting to see how things play out.

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  127. SSK how long are you planning to hold your recent entries into SLW?

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  128. Turd...I know your watching it...crude at $110 almost.

    I saw a report earlier that Libyas psycho Gaddafhi is shelling some of his refineries or oil production facilities. Haven't seen any confirmation of it but it wouldn't suprise me. He will destroy what he can't possess...bottomline.
    Bullish for oil if that happens or is confirmed.
    $111+ seems likely soon.

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  129. Oh snap! All of my picks were remaining flat today, then I went to write an update on REE news and suddenly Northair jumped up 20%?! I wasn't expecting anything out of this one for a while again after their run last week. I looked and can't find any news releases, any of you holders have any insight as to what is going on with this one? The only thing that looks apparent to me is a strong buyer who was trying to fill at around .69 but kept missing,looks like he finally hit and a couple people followed his trail. I want to sell so bad right now, top Bollinger band is getting punctured right now and I'm up almost 70% on this one now since the 25th of last month.

    @ Irene and anyone else,
    I 2nd Irene's recommendation on Yukon's blog. Always a good read and his "naked silver" pics are definitely worth drooling over!

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  130. Eric#1 said...
    I hang my hat on the idea that in '08, everybody thought "deflationary depression here we come". This time I think enough people are trained to figure that more weakness just brings more money printing, thus more inflation in the long run. Thus a dip in commodities would be shallower than last time.
    I could be totally wrong and get my head handed to me, again.

    Eric .... I am totally in line with the thinking you have displayed in your post which I copied to this post above my comment. If that scenario were to play out and the markets crash I am of the opinion the metals should be played just like the NFL players used to TRY and defence Barry Sanders. Their strategy was don't chase him hold your position because he will be right back and he did do that. To their chagrin he was so elusive many times he blew right past them.

    I will hold physical no matter what ... the only time I will look to move out of physical silver will be around 20 to 1 silver/gold ratio where I would swap silver for gold.

    Stocks are another matter of course I wouldn't just sit in those should the markets crash as in 08 but I agree that correction or crash would be much shallower than in 08. This part of the market has grown since 08 and there will be more resolve.

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  131. Really hating the lack of volatility in XAG. Getting antsy. That means I must not trade. Learned lesson..antsy = trade = loss. Every single time.

    Knowing doesn't make it easier to resist though :)

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  132. Well put Yukon, well put.
    Whats your blog IP address?
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Stephen...Stay patient my friend on the long SLW. You will be rewarded. 5 weeks seemed like forever at times but was well worth it.
    Everything is eventual, and much higher silver is indeed eventual.

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  133. Silver is forming a nice symmetrical traingle that is growing tight.. will the strength in oil and gold pull it higher? Or will we break down to find support in the $38's?

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  134. Does anybody else enjoy this choppy action?

    Thinking. Waiting. More waiting. More thinking.

    Place your bets, don't miss the break we make. You had time!

    Xty, your 40 call is all tee'd up perfectly...will we do it?

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  135. Stephen,

    Got my ask in at 45.87. Pretty sure that will go through. I might even be kicking myself for selling too soon. I think the channel here is narrowing. 46 might not be in the cards. I'm pretty leveraged up at the moment. Need to book some profits.

    The GDX has to stay above 62.60 for this to work.

    SK

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  136. Stefan,

    The work isn't going into the blog. The blog is actually quite easy to write it when you're pretty much just getting everything I'm reading, doing, and thinking about dumped out onto a page. It's really nothing more than a look into the goings on in my head.

    No my blog has never been about and never will be about money. I formed it for only one purpose. To get as many people to buy physical gold and silver as I could. In the course of doing that people have asked me what securities I have and trade and I talk about them.

    That's why I appreciate Turd and what he's done here so much. Here is someone who seems to have an uncanny gift for calling bottoms and tops in commodities. If he is accurate even 66% of the time he dwarfs folks who make 7+ figures working at some institutions. And we get it for free.

    It's the sign of someone who is humble and believes in what they are doing. If not for Turd then you wouldn't have my site either because it's Turd's site that caused me to start my own as he well knows.

    I don't mean to speak for Turd, but I consider it an obligation to help others. Someone made a post once years ago that talked about silver and gold that piqued my interest. Through that one single forgotten post from years ago I began to pile into physical gold and silver, then into stocks, then into options. Then came along someone who posted on Zero Hedge and started a blog which caused me to start my own. Both of us with different styles, but one goal... spreading the word about precious metals and fiat.

    Now that's all I try to do. Keep spreading the word. Who knows, one of your posts any of you may make on this board could cause someone who has not yet got a single ounce of metal finally go out and do that. Maybe one of my posts or Turd's will cause you to start a blog as well.

    Isn't life amazing like that?

    Yukon

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  137. Hi Turd, just a quickie, on your potential 39.20 and 38.80 silver buys, what stops would you put in place?

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  138. Since a lot of the Turdites are talking miners today, does anyone have any good info on Tyhee Gold Corp - TYHJF ?
    It just doesn't ever move at all. I haven't any negative info on it, so I was expecting to see some good action when I bought in at .15/share...so far nothing, although it is up today .0104

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  139. just covering the price grid now with buys and buy orders lower. Who knows where it goes. I'd feel privileged to make 50% of any coming move, who knows? This is why buying at highs is always so difficult and so nervy. One never knows if this one is the big one. Certainly Quaddafi bombing some of his own oil wells and oil breaking higher is a magnet on commodities but stranger things have happened.

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  140. PSSST, Turd, make a poll! I have been getting thousands of hits because google (or someone) put my poll on a google site (that I can not find, but no matter). I really do not know if you can get more popular (ok, technically you can), but if your poll goes public like mine has, you could see even more readers (hard to believe?).

    -LH

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  141. On Tyhee wouldn't touch it with a ten foot pole. I had it in the mid to late 90's when it was Mongolia Gold. After they poured their first bar they walked away back to Canada consolidated the shares 10 to 1 and changed the name. If it's the same outfit it will sound great and never go anywhere. The last I looked they had run the shares up to 200m. I lost a fortune on that dog. I made it back on TNX but my advice stay away from the penny stocks that have no established resources.

    Remember Mark Twain a hole in the ground with a liar on top.

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  142. Mark Twain ....... “A mine is a hole in the ground with a liar at the top.”

    just heard that for the first time this weekend at an energy conference. Love it. Having bought many shares of this type of mine it really rings true. Anyone here invest in Azteca....or Klondike?

    Anyways, Turd you are the best. I feel as though I have the best council around. Your generosity is much appreciated. My dream is to become a philanthropist and when it becomes a reality I will have you to thank!! Nothing would make me happier than to spend my days helping others instead of running in the rat race everyday 50 weeks a year.

    Thanks to everyone else on this board that shares their investment thoughts and experience.

    Joe

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  143. Just sent buddies an email titled "How to tell when a politician is lying." Text follows...

    You already know the answer ("His lips are moving"), but I just came across a priceless example: LBJ announcing the end of 90% silver coins. As you follow the link to his speech or read the two excerpts below, try to keep in mind that -- per golddealer.com -- today's best price for a $1000 face value bag of 90% silver US coins like what we used to drop into vending machines is $26,900 bid and $28,300 ask which means $2.69 / $2.83 per dime and $6.725 / $7.075 per quarter.

    Link for whole speech:
    http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=27108#axzz1ItGcFzre

    Two excerpts:
    1. "Now, all of you know these changes are necessary for a very simple reason--silver is a scarce material. Our uses of silver are growing as our population and our economy grows. The hard fact is that silver consumption is now more than double new silver production each year. So, in the face of this worldwide shortage of silver, and our rapidly growing need for coins, the only really prudent course was to reduce our dependence upon silver for making our coins."

    2. "Our present silver coins won't disappear and they won't even become rarities. We estimate that there are now 12 billion--I repeat, more than 12 billion silver dimes and quarters and half dollars that are now outstanding. We will make another billion before we halt production. And they will be used side-by-side with our new coins. Since the life of a silver coin is about 25 years, we expect our traditional silver coins to be with us in large numbers for a long, long time. If anybody has any idea of hoarding our silver coins, let me say this. Treasury has a lot of silver on hand, and it can be, and it will be used to keep the price of silver in line with its value in our present silver coin. There will be no profit in holding them out of circulation for the value of their silver content. "

    Come to think of it, if you squint and look at it just right, there wasn't really any profit for those who pulled silver coins out of circulation. After all, in 1965 a gallon of gasoline cost less than two silver dimes and it still does.

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