Thursday, April 14, 2011

$1600 Gold By June 10, 2011 - Revised

On Friday, January 21, I issued the above proclamation. So confident was I that the correction we were enduring would soon end, I felt the time had come for me to "stick my neck out". Here's a link to the original:

My promise to you then was that if gold didn't make it and I was proven wrong, I would shut this blog down and slink back into the sewer where turds belong. Tonight I am notifying you that I am officially reneging on this pledge. Not that I'm concerned about the price target...I'm more confident than ever that gold will get there in time. Heck, gold has already risen from the 1344 level that it closed at that Friday evening to a last tonight of 1477. We're more than halfway there and we still have about two months to go! No, this isn't about that.

Over the past three months, I've come to realize that this blog is needed. Its necessary. Not for my input, you can do just fine without me. This blog is vital for the information contained herein. There is no other site currently available that can provide honest, helpful and unbiased information to anyone desperately searching for a way to protect themselves and their families from the pending Keynesian collapse. To that end, today I formally began the process of building us our new site. The contractor and his team start work tomorrow. The target date for the unveiling is late May/early June. I'll be able to share some details with you along the way but, as I said earlier this week, I'm seeing it as a sort of "Angie's List" for all things precious metal. One big difference, there will be no membership fee or subscription cost.
We will all share our expertise and experience and we will all collectively benefit.

So, I'm sorry but I must break my pledge. Gold will still trade to $1600 by 6/10/11, of that you can be certain. However, if unforeseen circumstances postpone the advance or if we end up just a few dollars short, I'm not going away. This project is too important.

Onto the overnight charts...All you really have to watch is the POSX. Silver has had a great, 24-hour run and gold used up a lot of dry powder trying to reach 1478+ and, hopefully, trigger a bunch of buy stops. When that didn't materialize, the rally stabilized and we are now hovering between 1476 and 1478. I'd expect this to continue, maybe even drift a little lower...unless...the POSX breaks down. Take a look at this chart of the June:
For whatever reason, I can count 4 hourly lows at exactly 74.84. Very strange. IF that level gives way overnight, expect a sharp drop down toward the 74.25 area tomorrow. Clearly, this type of action will also provide impetus for an extension of today's PM gains. Silver would head toward $43 and gold would shoot to 1490-95. So, watch the June POSX very closely. If you're following the Kitco chart on this page, June 74.84 corresponds to about 74.65.

Here's an hourly gold chart, too, showing the action around 1478.

Lastly, the CME raised margins on crude late this afternoon. As you can see, nobody cared:
Simply put, there is just so much frickin money sloshing around the global financial system that puny, little margin hikes simply have no impact. Now, maybe, if they increased margins to 150% or so the criminals might get the desired effect. Oops...I probably shouldn't give them any ideas.
At any rate, IF they raise silver margins again or IF Tungstenman puts out a negative report on the PMs, get ready to aggressively buy any dip that ensues. Their desperation is palpable.

Have a great overnight. Can't wait for tomorrow!! TF


  1. Bolivia is the problem, not Peru. At least not yet I hope.

  2. China's first-quarter GDP rises 9.7%, consumer inflation at faster-than-expected 5.4%

  3. Thanks again Turd for your insights into these wild, crazy and unforgiving markets. I am up 700% since following the Turd and loyal Turdites. Cheers! AgApe

  4. I just lost some coffee laughing at a comment on ZH, I figured the gang here might like it as well:
    (Part 1)
    -The Bernank doesn't target inflation. He roundhouse-kicks it until it begs for mercy.
    -The Bernank dollar buys 3 Canadian dollars, and trades at parity with the euro.
    -The Bernank doesn't supply collateral, only collateral damage.
    -The tears of The Bernank would supply enough liquidity to solve the credit crisis. Too bad he never cries.
    -When the yield on a The Bernank bond goes up, the price also rises.
    -The Bernank trades on fear and greed simultaneously.
    -Alan Greenspan calls The Bernank ``The Maestro.''
    -The Bernank has already banked his dividend payment from Lehman Brothers
    -The Bernank Asset Management made 50 percent on its subprime mortgage-backed bond fund in 2008
    -The Bernank's curves never invert.

  5. DPH,

    Bolivia already is a problem. And from today's action in the Peruvian miners, Peru already is too.


  6. A lot of people thought I died in bolivia. They were wrong though, and I still have my gold.

  7. Part 2
    -Net income at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. rose 79 percent in the first quarter; profit at The Bernank Securities Inc. climbed 80 percent.
    -There is no market regulator. Just a list of securities The Bernank allows to be traded.
    -The Bernank’s iPhone never needs recharging.
    -The Bernank doesn't buy gold to hedge against inflation. Gold buys The Bernank to hedge against inflation.
    -The Bernank charges the Bank of England a penalty rate for borrowing. And guarantees its deposits.
    -The Bernank doesn't mark-to-market. The market marks to The Bernank.
    -When the U.S. economy sneezes, the world catches a cold. When The Bernank sneezes, the U.S. economy catches pneumonia.
    -When The Bernank makes you a price, it isn't an offer; it's an obligation to buy.
    -The Bernank isn't a market maker; he IS the market.
    -The Bernank can still get a 125 percent mortgage on a $2 million condo without providing proof of earnings.
    -The Bernank subprime collateralized debt obligations still trade at 100 percent of face value.
    -The Bernank completed Halo 3 on his Microsoft Corp. Xbox 360 on the day before the computer game went on sale.
    -The Bernank has a trade surplus with China.

  8. Turd..Don't be sorry. Just like Santa's prediction was off (if you could dare even say that). I don't look at it that way at all.
    You now as well as I and everyone here that Au and Ag are totally being manipulated and supressed.
    If it wasn't for that fact, Au and Ag would have blown wayyyy past those price targets by now.

    You are correct though that this website is needed very much.
    Screw what anyone might think about a "missed' price target.
    I think it's still possible some event, whether MENA or a deficit ceilig/budget deficit event could very well propel us (unfortunately) to hit your target.
    It's a non-issue although I know some troglodite's will try to nail you on it.
    F#!&! them!

  9. God Bless you Turd. You bring reason to a world without it. Keep up the great work.

  10. SSK...I know about Bolivia.

    Peru happens when it happens or if it happens. I'm not worried. SLW has lots of options and no shortage of miners who will hedge to get the financing they need.

  11. So I want to give a shout out to the Turd for his options insight. Made some serious loot and when I take some of my profits, I plan to feed that fool. Keep the great info and charts coming and I plan to share my profits with you, friend.

  12. I read Tyler on ZH make some comment about "Obama riding a unicorn across the White House lawn" and I just lost it.
    Seriously warped and funny.

  13. Thank you Turd for providing such an awesome place for great minds to collect. Keep up the excellent work. I'm really excited to see the launch of your new site :)

  14. DarkPurpleHaze said...
    I read Tyler on ZH make some comment about "Obama riding a unicorn across the White House lawn" and I just lost it.
    Seriously warped and funny.
    April 14, 2011 10:25 PM

    Seriously lost it too - brilliant!

  15. TF...Your so right about the PO$X just languishing where it's been at for several days now with minimal movement either way. It goes up a bit and almost immediately comes back to that same level.
    It is strange. I find it very odd and my gut says it's about to drop at the slightest news story or event. It won't take much, thats for sure.

  16. xty

    I did a little checking for you. APMEX says they ship to Canada. These would be the bad boys you are looking for:

  17. Old Navy,
    Currently when TBT hits around 37, I buy options; around 39 I sell them. And these are longer out options (Sept11) because it could go against me (lower than 37) and I would need some time to recover.

    Thanks for the reference to the Citi article. It just reminds us that the general public is still naive concerning the national debt. And so there is lots of room for PMs to run from here.

  18. Had a nice rant to answer lumpy at the end of the last thread (it is a talent) so I thought I would repost. And also that way Ginger will know that I absolutely did not take Awful's words to heart - au contraire, if I hadn't been so busy I would have turned up the quantity, if not the quality.

    Did the rest of you actually read Turd's heartfelt post? There were 12 comments by the time I finished reading it and I was last if not close to it on the previous thread. This thing just smokes - all praise to the Mighty Turd.

    Here is my rant:

    umpy - but I know what you mean. Should we spend all our fiat on food and silver? I have money in the bank, and equity investments - today I took a bold step for me and put a pretty big for us chunk of cash into PHY.U so it would at least be in paper gold instead of Canadian dollars - worked out so far. But I can't quite bring myself to go full silver-hat. I feel like I have one foot in the old pretend fantasy world, where we have elections and promises are made and people pick up unemployment cheques and dream of retiring on 90% indexed pensions while living to 99 on free universal health-care while governments ring up insane deficits and print money like madmen while pretending inflation doesn't exist as long as you don't eat or drive and the other foot in a sort of quiet world, where people have all their money safely in their homes, and trade and barter freely in smaller communities eating canned bacon at get-togethers.

  19. Turd don't even mention about closing the blog, not even joking...people is learning from this site and spreading the have been right more than twice than wrongs..people believe and respect you (everything a man have in life: his word and respect) are not some cheap trader but a professional, please keep leading the ship that is growing everyday. Thanks

  20. Once I get out of grad school and start receiving worthless paper fiat in a pay check to pay off a worthless fiat student loan I will donate to the Turd. The Turd is religion, and the Turd has blinded me with the light (i.e gold and silver).

    A Speech from Michael Burry from the Big Short.

  21. TF, I think it has long become obvious to anyone who reads the blog that your guidance is spot on, the specific $ value of the PM is rapidly becoming less and less meaningful. If you tried to leave, the Turdites would simply hound you relentlessly until you acquiesced and gave in to our demands to continue posting... ;-)

    Thank you for sharing, for creating / enabling / catalyzing this community, for teaching those of us who are willing to learn, and in general for being, well, you.
    Please give some thought to a mechanism of delegating at least a part of the work at the new site to the community. While I 'feed the Turd' whenever I can, I am sure many of us (myself included) would be more than happy to pitch in time and effort as well.

  22. Seriously Turd...

    Do not shut this down without an alternative. I would have jumped ship this week without your analysis. Plan to feed the turd soon.

  23. Go Turd! You, Ron Paul, Harry Markopolous, and Professor William Black.

    Bold and true Americans. Thank you.

  24. Eric - thanks for digging - I did a fair amount of Googling, etc., and found some really interesting stuff. I didn't realize that you could buy Roman and mediaeval coins so easily. What a fascinating world. But I didn't find those - I am off to follow the link. I am going to owe you big time!

  25. XTY...OMG! Canned bacon, again?
    Thats it, I can't take it anymore.
    I'm going out tomorrow and buying some bacon and eggs and frying them up with toast on the side etc.
    The bacon talk is driving me wild. I love peameal bacon (have 2 pkgs. in freezer actually) but I'm talking about American bacon (American bacon he says???) strips and just chowing down on bacon period.
    If you don't hear from me tomorrow it's because I had a heart attack or I slipped on bacon grease or suffered 3rd degree burns frying it up naked ;-P

  26. tinka and fortuna, peru, had fine days. fortuna up 6.5%.
    either humala is not going to win, or he is no chavez. i'm not saying i'd vote for the guy, but no one's been selling on the news that he won the first vote, so i'm sticking to my guns...for now.

  27. TF,

    I for one am really grateful for this site, this blog.

    The people around me think I am nuts buying food, water purification gear, PM's, etc, for the end of the "world" as we know it. It is great to come to this site and be with like minded, aware people. And I also appreciate how people openly share information on this site. It is really hard to find genuine community in one's lifetime... and you have built (and inspired) a wonderful community here.

    I (along with hundreds/thousands of other Turdites) am very grateful to be a part of this community and appreciate your leadership. Lord knows we need real "community" and strong leadership to get through the end of the Keynesian experiment.

    Ever thought of running for President?

    Thank you again.


  28. Hi, all...seems like ages since I've been spending all the time I want to here at Turd's place.
    Must thank Turd PROFUSELY for making this site possible! There is no other place like it!

    My 89 year old mother had to have an angiogram (yesterday)so that along with the preop stuff kept me busy. So, I missed so good enty places.

    However, after market hours, I did purchase some more silver...half rounds and half junk.
    I'm in a bit of a panic since I really have only about 10% in physical. I have a chunk in the miners, but that's still payment in fiat!
    I'm reading that one should have 10-14-35% so I'm panicking a bit!

    I made buys a couple of years ago and again this past December, but I've been feeling that I am not hedged enough.
    I've diddled around for a couple of days in between taking care of my mother...I've become almost FROZEN.
    XTY--I understand how you's tough to change our mindsets, but seeing interest of .9% a savings account sort of pushes you along.

    Fear now is when to exit...but that's a way off and I'm sure there will be much discussion of that in the future!

    Thanks to all for the hand-holding! Us "oldies but goodies" are really grappling with a complete upheaval of plans for a nice quiet retirement, so I, for one, really appreciates all the helpful folks here!

  29. OMG Eric the St Gaudens are beautiful - am I wrong to like them so much more? The price is almost the same. Holy crap - I am going to have to buy one (or two ....)

    Turd - don't even joke about closing down this website. Canned bacon, increased wealth and now Eric has found me these fabulous coins. And your excellent writing doesn't hurt, either.

  30. Hey Turd,

    I gotta say man, I was lost trying to trade XAG before I found this place. You and the others here not only made me profitable, but who ever knew that following silver could be a spectator sport? Coming here every day is like going to the game and watching the action with a bunch of friends.

    Thanks for giving us all this great community !

  31. xty
    I've notice that too. You would think old Roman gold woud be horribly expensive, or just really belong in a museum or something. But not so.

  32. My keyboard must be pretty sticky because I have a lot of typos in my previous post!

    XTY..I have a Roman coin that's got a split in it...I bought it at a shop off the Victoria Embankment years ago!
    I think I paid L15 for it then, about 25 years ago! I have the slip in the coin cover....must check some day!

  33. Quote for Friday from Old Navy,
    "...we have the advantage of being in a market where the primary trend is crystal clear and with just a little discipline, you can make some really fantastic returns."

  34. XTY forgot to mention, that it'a bronze coin, not gold! LOL!

    However, when I first went to London back around 1973, I met my English "pen friend" and she gave me a Silver Wedding Crown...they aren't worth much at all from what I've researched!

  35. I typed a long rant about otver thinking.
    The system swallowed it.

    Short version:

    Atlee said "don't think its your brains when its a bull market."

    Some of my employees know I trade options and asked me to explain.

    My opening comment yo them was there is not magic in options. Options just allow you to increase leverage and control risk when you ALREADY KNOW what the market is going to do.

    We are in a roaring bull market in silver.
    We may see a pause when the kabuki theater of QEn plays out, but I see nothing in the fundamentals that changes the long term trend.

    Silver has been increasing more about 10c a day.
    If you wait 5 days for a 50c dip to get in you've just lost. A month from now the 50c will be forgotten.

    Take the mental effort you put into finding the exact right spot to jump on and go do something productive with it.

    If you want more leverage buy AGQ or buy options near the current price.

    Just above if you want more risk, lower if you want more safety.


    An example of my personal trading and the thoughts that went into it:

    Day before yesterday I bought some July 40 silver calls. They cost me $2.55 per oz.
    So if silver closes above 42.55 by the time the expire at the end of June I make $.
    At 5c a day ,half the recent average, silver would be 44 at expiration and I'd make 56% If silver does the 10c its been averaging it would be 47 and I'd make 174%. If it does its 10c a day thing and then has a 10% correction at exactly the wrong moment I'd be at 47-4.75 = 42.25 I'd loose 12%.

    If you can just manage to make 10% a month for 12 months you triple your $.
    25% a month and its 14 times
    Not an impossibility with leverage in a roaring bull market.

  36. Thanks for reneging on that pledge, your blog is a great service.
    That said, I do not believe the projection to be incorrect. I look forward to the new site.

  37. We support you no matter what Turd. You did something with a free platform that others would kill to be able to do with a dot com. There's no shame in your game boss, you've got swagger and should be walking around with a hellafied gangsta lean everywhere you go while smacking Blythe's little monkeys like they owe you money when you see them.

    Keep up the good work man, everyone here is better off in this game thanks to the vehicle you have provided us for the ride. *thumbs up*

  38. Jeez, I must be getting nutty....maybe faint from the silver buy...

    I meant to write that I've been hearing that one should have 20-25...35% in PMs.....

    Where that 14 came from I have NO IDEA!!!

    Too much stress this week has made me loony!

    ON the bright side...the solar panels are UP, we passed inspection today, so next week the meters are put on and the monitoring system is hooked up and away we go watching the meter go backwards!

    I consider the solar system another great hedge, with a big part of the cost on Uncle Sam's dime!

    Food orders this weekend to add to the 1.5 years of certain key items already stored away....

  39. Saint's are almost universally preferred to the older Liberties. For a lot of people, they are the best coin ever. Worth the extra $10? If you like them, heck yea! I happen to like them both, and own some of each.

    At the bottom of the page, check out the "Product Video" tab. It will blow you away. Be advised though, they have the right coins and the perfect lighting and everything to make those guys look super duper. A cleaned coin in your own kitchen might not look quite the same. Still great though.

    Buy at least two. That way you can hold them both and clink them around a little!!

  40. Turd, I'm relieved to hear that you're not going to be shutting down the blog should gold not hit your target in time. This place is far too important and I'm glad you see the light. I pass your blog around as "required reading" to all my red pill prospects. Keep on keeping on!

  41. Could Turd's Herd possibly be referred to also as "The Monkey Spanker's"?
    M'mmm...maybe not!
    But a flying monkey getting swatted with a fly (ok, monkey) swatter would look kind of cool on a coffee mug or T-shirt.
    I would wear that.

  42. Don't forget the purple Crown Royal pouch.
    It's a must!

  43. Turd,

    Glad to see your common sense won out over any false sense of pride or bravado. This is a great source for information and some of us (myself included) would be a little poorer and less prepared without it.

    Keep up the great work and God bless you and your family.

    Swampfox and the skulk.

  44. All this talk of governments nationalizing mines reminds me of Rand's "Atlas Shrugged," in which a billionaire had one of the biggest mines, employed many people, and the government took it over. Then they found out the mine was worthless and had a lot more unemployed people on their hands.
    And part 1 of 3 is coming out in theaters this weekend.

  45. Turd

    How did that vote come out for you? Do we need to start in making our "TURD FOR CONGRESS" yard signs?

  46. Hey Turd,

    Just wondering when we start to short JPM? What are your thoughts on this?

  47. Why would the Turd leave? I don't think that ever was a real possibility, but what a post besides the point. Very well said and as mighty as the Turd's ego could be, he understands that this is bigger than himself. One day it will be funny telling the story of how Blythe Masters Jig (w/ the Fed behind it remember) was seriously scrutinized by hundreds of Turdites and thousands of watchful Turdstanders.

    This blog and mindset achieved here is a shining example of what people can be capable of. Truly some very big potential here.

    Ron Paul 2012
    (As early as next Tuesday (4/19) announcement coinciding with his book release titled, "Liberty Defined." That or it will be within a couple weeks!

  48. I figured out a new toy for my OSX computer. This is pretty cool to get an updated kitco chart on my desktop as an image (with opacity) that update as often at whatever interval you want!

    I installed this application (free)

    they have screenshots with other charts on their website, but I wanted USDX AU and AG so I used the links below.

    install the plugin and then drag the "image" icon to your desktop and select the chart you want on your desktop. I set mine to refresh every 90 seconds, but I will have to lay with it if that is too much or too little.

    here are some kitco options

    small ones

    Big three day Silver chart

    big 3 day gold chart

    the charts sit in the background and are not something that you need to click or whatever. they just sit there and update themselves at whatever refresh rate you want

  49. @Ginger

    IRT your question on the previous thread:

    I currently hold front month (May) SLV options because there were no JUN calls and I did not want to go out to JUL because I didn't see a big enough profit opportunity in them. I am sticking with them, even though my general rule is to be out of a call before it enter its last 30 days. This time, however, I feel that the "force is with me" and we are heading much higher before these calls expire. If you get caught out of the money and within 30 days of expiration, you are at the mercy of the market and can end up eating the entire premium. I have been playing mostly the second month out (IE: I would now own JUN calls, if there were any).

    See also Bro. D's response to me above. He is buying far out expirations, but he only holds them until they hit his targets and then trades out of them. Owning long expirations does not increase the risk, IMO, it decreases it. If and when SLV collapses, it won't matter what months you own, it will be a race for the door, and there may not be a door to race for.

    I am not counting on SLV for more than another month or two. By then I want to find something else that has good liquidity and small spreads and large OI. Probably will not find anything that matches SLV in those regards, but maybe I can come close.

    Right now, lots of people like to buy SLV. I don't think most of them are thinking about whether there is really any silver in the vaults. But that story will break one day when we don't see it coming and then it's the first few who jump that will get out.

    Bro. D

    Thanks for quoting me. However, I should have said "with Turd's insights and just a little discipline, you can make fantastic returns!"

  50. Old,
    Yeah, that's right. The right trend and discipline also need keen insight such as Turd's.

  51. Turd,

    Couple things.

    1) People like to view this blog at work. If you allow avatars, can we agree to NOT allow avatars of women's anatomies like boobies? As much as I like them, I cringe as I read zerohedge that I might get fired!

    2) Make the new site mobile-phone compatible. I love checking the site on my smartphone and be able to post.

    That's it bro! Nice job so far, been following you for a long time.

  52. atlee, Caught you post earlier. Hard keeping up with the blog when you work during the day.
    I'll get my thoughts together and post something tonight. Did you hear the guy on CNBC calling for $9.00 corn?

  53. ScottJ88

    Did you mean to say Turdful watchstanders? (, I guess that doesn't work...)

    Ron Paul rocks!

  54. Mark this date on your calendar, Turd finally posted something stupid on his blog... the idea of shutting it down.

  55. Turd has proven to be a soothsayer, all hail the Turd. Gotta hand it to him - today's action was priceless.

    Beware a reversal of fortunes from the dark lord master Bernanke, however, going forward. Nothing comes easy at this game, especially when the world's economies are run by criminals.

    In any case, I salute the Turd. Gold at 1600 seems like a lock.

  56. Old Navy,
    and of course "discipline" includes reading Turd's updates several times a day.

  57. xty

    I see now the Saint's are only $6 more than the Lib's. I don't know where I got $10 on the brain. Some other website I guess. But yeah, the Saint's are tough to beat. Of course they stole the front side for the new issue Gold Eagles, but I really like that awesome eagle on the back.

    Did you check out that Product Video yet? I know you will love it.

  58. One last comment on NATGAS and then I call it quits for the night.

    After decades of being an importer of LNG (liquid natural gas, which comes in huge ships), the US is now poised to become an exporter. The same terminals can be adapted to perform both functions. The is one at Sabine Pass, LA, owned by Cheniere Energy Inc. AMEX:LNG) which has already inked contracts with the Japanese, Italians and Spaniards to ship LNG to them. According to my souces, the stock is up 45% YTD. I have not done any research yet, just passing on what I read in a newsletter I received today.

    The other big US LNG terminal which will be a natural to export from is at Cove Point, MD, close to the Marcellus Shale NATGAS deposits. I do not know who owns it. Canada is working on one at Kitimat, BC.

    See you all tomorrow, looking for 43...

  59. Insight - it was the interest rate that got me - something like 1% just for our special account - yeah - that's special alright.

    Eric - I haven't watched the video yet - but got the account all set up, and am now just wrestling with the exchange rates - I have a choice to pay in Canadian or US dollars. Now the USD seems to be at about 96 cents Can. Gold is trading for about 1418. When I pick Can it doesn't seem to reflect enough of a difference. But I think if I choose to pay in American, and let Visa do the exchange, it will be a better deal. I am always terrible at figuring exchange rates and was just hauling out the iphone calculator. But St Gaudens it is, and 2 for sure. Thanks again. I almost had to buy some Mexican coins they have too - silver, just over half an ounce, and about 28 if paying by credit card - less if you wire them money. This is going to be an obsession - especially if I start buying mediaeval gold coins as a hobby.

  60. 60th!!!!
    Really tho....Turd, you're not going ANYWHERE! Thanx for everything you do for us. Thank you X1000! I think it's feeding time for Turd again....and again....and again....

  61. Please don't ask the Turd to run for public office, what are you guys nuts? We need him here with US!

  62. Yes, but we need many more like him in Washington to tackle the impending catastrophe of our economic system.
    I would gladly give up any future profits in PMs if there was a viable solution that Washington would agree on before a collapse; alas, I have zero confidence in those self-serving, money-grubbing leeches.

  63. OMG xty, the pressure is really on now. Those babies better not disappoint or my name will be mud around here!

    Same thing with Pablo and his Sovereigns he bought today. Not sure I want all this responsibility! :D


  65. I agree Bro, however, 50 or 60 turds in the system will gain attention--one Turd will only get flushed. ; )

  66. Hi guys,

    This for all of you who think that just because a miner is located in North America that it is some how safer from government confiscation. Those of you who are Canadian and are old enough to remember the NEP (National Energy Program) of the 1980's under then Prime Minister Pierre "The Finger" Trudeau will already be familiar with the following bit of history:

    Here it is from wikipedia:

    "The NEP was introduced in the wake of the energy crises of the 1970s. Because of high oil prices, several economic problems that were beginning to manifest themselves through the 1970s were accelerated and magnified. Inflation was most commonly between 9 and 10 percent annually[1] and prime interest rates over 10 percent.[2] Unemployment was epidemic in the eastern provinces where the Trudeau government had much of its political support.[3] The NEP was designed to promote oil self-sufficiency for Canada, maintain the oil supply, particularly for the industrial base in eastern Canada, promote Canadian ownership of the energy industry, promote lower prices, promote exploration for oil in Canada, promote alternative energy sources, and increase government revenues from oil sales through a variety of taxes and agreements.[4] The NEP's Petroleum Gas Revenue Tax (PGRT) instituted a double-taxation mechanism that did not apply to other commodities, such as gold and copper (see "Program details" item (c), below). The program would "... redistribute revenue from the [oil] industry and lessen the cost of oil for Eastern Canada..." in an attempt to insulate the Canadian economy from the shock of rising global oil prices[5] (see "Program details" item (a), below). By keeping domestic oil prices below world market prices, the NEP essentially managed petroleum resources for the benefit of the national economy as a whole, but caused a relative loss of income for the oil and gas industry, creating long-term political resentments in Canada's western provinces.[6]"

    Think it can't happen here? With a little spin and some propoganda you could see governments securing mining rights for national interests in the name of... blah blah blah yadda yadda yadda.

    In short - as the situation with the US dollar weakens be prepared for things to get out of hand and for governments to become more aggressive and radical to the left/authoritarian end.

  67. Eric - don't worry. I did a quick hunt around on Kitco etc., and nothing else quite had the appeal. One thing I spotted and need to go back for somewhere was the Canadian Mint is putting out Grizzly ounces, apparently it is a wildlife series and I wonder if the Wolves were the first. Nice looking bear, and sort of ironic to be able to buy a silver bear.

  68. Turd, don't close the blog, regardless of the June gold price - this is a super resource! thanks for your effort! .... but I still think you will be right on 1600 gold ...

    And I would also like to thank the many folks who spend great time and energy in posting relevant comments that provide considerable insight. You guys are great, all of you!!!

    Have a virtual beer on me!

  69. SLW silver sources from BoM silver miner analysis

    Project 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
    CANADA 169 595 388 726
    USA 320 459 1249 3032
    MEXICO 10901 15757 16486 16834
    PERU 1655 2600 2892 2892
    EUROPE 3568 3412 3986 3968
    BARRICK 2525 2332 2148 7650

    So SLW is not directly exposed to Bolivia/Morales sticky fingers?

  70. Swampfox - and shortly thereafter interest rates hit 20%. Trudeau also, having campaigned against them, introduced Wage and Price Controls - and you can imagine how well that popular programme worked.

  71. Negative report (on commodities in general) right on queue ...

  72. xty

    Yeah, it's a gorgeous coin, plus like I've been saying all day, this grade of coin you can actually take out and put your hands on. Can't do that with a slabbed coin, and you really shouldn't do that with a regular Gold Eagle or Gold Maple either. If it's in a 2X2 or a plastic flip it's just not the same. There's just something about actually touching and holding the gold, whether for comfort in times of strife or in joy on days like today. It's just something special. For me, at least.

    You can touch the Sovereigns too. Same idea, but yeah the sheer size on the Double Eagles has a special appeal that way. You could hold two Double Eagles, or eight Sov's and have about the same weight of gold, but for these purposes, I give the edge to the Double Eagles.

  73. Night all. Tomorrow, here's to green screens for all.

  74. 77th!

    Ok now seriously. Common avg Circ Morgan silver dollars (non-1921) are closing at over $40 on eBay. When you consider a Morgan has .7735 ounces of silver this equates to a silver price of over $50 an ounce.

    The market is saying that Silver is going much higher.

  75. Peace out Eric!

    Flyzipper, I like your first rendition of 'queue'

    Funny, thought I just read through the first two pages of ZH updates, and missed that one. Well, the GS Commodity Watch report is no surprise to anyone here. I have a feeling that it will not get the desired effect that this report was meant to cause.

  76. First comment:

    Anybody calling themselves "Turd" must not have a very high opinion of themselves one would think. It's a disgusting name and those who christen themselves such probably suffer from a bad case of coprophilia. Yuk!

    Having said that I've been following this site for the past few months now, and have come to the conclusion that not all turds are disgusting.

    This Turd in fact is rather delicious.

    Who would have thought we'd all be eating turds and loving it.

    What's for desert?

    $1600 golden showers, $50 silver showers - yum, I'm really getting into this scat thing.

    Thanks Turd old mate it all good fun - and fucking profitable to boot.



  77. Turd,
    thank you for carrying on and reneging on your pledge to close down. The service you have provided for free has been of great value for so many people from so many different backgrounds.

    I have grown as a trader (in skills and account balance!) learning from you.

    You often, generously, mention the value of the comments here. Don't overplay that, however, as you are the star here and the reason we tune in many times each day. I sometimes wonder whether people actually read your thoughts, or are just eager to spout on about something regardless. Or maybe it's the fact that what you say is always so clear and understandable that it doesn't require much comment or questioning.

    I look forward to continuing this journey with you. I wonder where it will take us?

  78. Coming in after setting up a chicken coop, and I get this HUGE news dropped in my lap?

    TF- You extraordinary talents could gain you far more fiat than you could possibly make here. That you would concentrate on this blog and these loyal readers instead? That is straight up charactor, my friend.

    That you would realize this has grown bigger than you, and is doing truly special things for real folks- That is straight up humility and grace.

    That you would put up with reprobaes and denerates like Eric , Xty, afrum, sumo, atlee, and Ginger, and even an Aussi like TurdleGG... well that shows you have poor judgement, but we'll work on that later ;-)

    In our own ways we try to make this place better, as best we can. But it is the brilliance and talent of TF that is the heart, mind, and soul of this little nut house.

    Building what you have built here- that is an unbelievable accomblishment. Very well done and MUCH respect for you sir. Thank you.

  79. (New)Justin - You really should consider trashing your first post, and give it another try. That's just disgusting.

  80. I agree, Eric. I dislike slabs...even cut 'em open and toss the plastic. ;-)

    And sovereigns are among my favorites too but for another reason. There's a huge difference between Sovereigns and Citizens. As for old coins though, I am partial to half-eagles.

    Ol' Michael "What a long, strange trip it's been."

  81. If you open the new place and shut this blog down on 6/10 then technically you wouldn't have reneged on your promise.

  82. Back from my early appointment...what did i miss?!

    Oh a reneging, soppy emotion flooding and Silver still above $42.

    Ok carry on Turdites.

  83. "Turd For Congress" not a bad idea, but it would not be the best use of your time. How about General TF Washington of the New Republic? Your service is so much appreciated...thank you. We know your time is priceless, count on donations very soon.

  84. Buying opportunity coming up.

    Tungstenman has downgraded commodities in the near-term.

    Why? Because Tungstenman wants to take the other side of the trade, then jam up commodities when its prop. trading desk gives the all-clear.

    The predators don't even bother being subtle anymore.

    Here is the link:

    Below is the section on Precious Metals. Gold is going up but this Predator wants you to hedge your gold, and wants producers to hedge their production.

    This is so that the Predator wins and investors lose out.

    "Precious Metals
    Hedging recommendations
    We expect gold prices to continue to climb in 2011 as the resumption of quantitative easing should keep US real interest rates low. However, with the current round of QE set to end in June 2011, and our US economics team now forecasting strong US economic growth in 2011 and 2012, we expect US real interest rates to begin to rise into 2012, likely causing gold prices to peak in 2012. Consequently, we recommend near-dated consumer hedges in gold.


    While we expect gold prices to increase in 2011, our view that downside risks will likely increase heading into 2012 suggests this is a good time for gold producers to begin scaled-up hedging of forward production, particularly for calendar 2012 and beyond.

    Trading recommendations

    Long Gold: Buy December 2011 COMEX Gold (Current value of $1,459.4/toz; $95.2/toz gain).
    We expect gold prices to continue to climb in 2011 as the resumption of quantitative easing will keep US real interest rates low.

  85. @ swattsup

    Yes. Good idea.

    And given your talent for parsing, etc., perhaps you should go work for GS's legal dept. I think they'll need some new blood soon. ;)

  86. @ Justin

    Do you mind me coming over to your home and taking a dump on your living room rug?

    Just asking...

  87. Tungstenman's 12 month target for silver is, wait for it, $28.20.

  88. @ sumo.

    Their proofing dept. was busy surreptitiously reading Turd's blog. Shoulda been $82.20. ;)

  89. Wow Pining...what a glowing review of our boy, Turd! Couldn't have said it better, even that's exactly what I would say---if I could find the words! Thank you!

  90. @sumo: thanks for the heads up on Tungstenman. Any idea on buy level?

    I've got 41.70 area as key pivot.

  91. RobotTrader gets a rather bad rap on ZH, but is more insightful (though also often hopeless in his trader ways) than he is given credit for. Silver prices in most major currencies via RT on

    In case you needed to be told, straight up in all fiat denominations, incl. Swiss francs.

  92. This comment has been removed by the author.

  93. I agree with Turd. A BTFD opportunity is coming. CME is going to hike margin requirement on PM next, they've already signaled with crude.

  94. @atlee,

    Just now catching up on the posts. Trying to position my IRA's and longterm investments in PMs.
    I like to trade the grains but if I don't have time to watch my position constantly, I stand
    aside on day trading.

    I chose to wait on buying corn today, looks like weekly reversals on the corn and wheat charts.
    I'm just cautious about it not wanting to be long over the weekend.

    Dec corn was the leader today in what is a developing weather market. Traders trying to talk up
    spring planting delays due to rains. I don't go for this yet, too early. Farmers can plant so much
    so quick with the equipment they now have, and with $6.00 corn, you better believe they will get it
    planted and forward sell their crop. This should cap Dec corn. Also, these prices have probably
    bought an extra 2 million acres of corn, and weather permitting, they will get planted. Watch out
    new crop corn.

    Old crop corn is a totally different market, and I want to be long July corn. Or trade the
    spread and be long July/Short Dec. That trade lost 10c today however.

    Wheat could be the drag on corn nearby. Corn higher than wheat will encourage wheat to be substituted
    for corn, streching our corn supply. One reason I'm cautious is that corn gained on wheat, not because
    of strength in corn, but because of weakness in wheat. Also there is still a carry from May to July corn.
    Can't get super bullish yet until all months are inverted. Tightness in corn stocks may not develop until
    later summer, thats when to expect the fireworks. It may be just too early for the market to make
    new highs. Topside is open since we have already taken out the highs of 2008. (maybe Turd can make
    some topside projections)

    But atlee, I'm with you. Gotta get long this market somewhere, protect long futures with puts.
    I'm waiting for a big down day to buy, say at the breakout 7.42 to 7.35 on the July. Sell against
    the 7.88 highs. Limited corn supply not being rationed yet.

    And I appreciate your posts too. Learning more about the PM trade each day.

  95. Some sound advice from Jesse, below. I'm looking at puts on APPL and SPY for downside protection.

    "...I would start shifting to a net short if the SP futures crack 1290 to the downside.

    Until then I would rather be long gold and silver, including some miners, from the dip as mentioned yesterday, and use any stock index and other asset shorts to hedge positions in miners and perhaps silver..."

  96. great stuff! this blog is THE place to be for watching the PM situation unfold! credit due to the Turd and all the wonderful commenters. I get stuck into every single thread and take in all the ideas and information on offer. a lot of very interesting perspectives!


  97. Wow...what a day!

    When the BOS showed up this morning in New York, there was no letting up in the buying.

    Not only did we see lift-off, we saw the roll program and MaxQ.

    What was really amazing was this spaceshot not only was going to a new orbital trajectory but instead kept going...I count four additional FUBMs in the following 8 hours.

  98. JoeKa: no idea. I have some XAG trades open at $41.70.

    It will be interesting to see how Sheep in Suits - excuse me I mean GS clients - react to the commodity takedown clarion call.

  99. Just came across this blog, and having read the last two thread with every single comment I have a few questions.

    First off, being Canadian, what is the most recommended platform for options? I am about to committ to OptionsXpress but I'm sure there is got to be something cheaper.

    Second, I know the number one rule is to start off with a paper account but I don't want to wait. Can you blame me with what's going on? My level of knowledge is equivalent to that of a college graduate with a degree in Economics/Finance but with zero trading experience. Any tips on the safest play with $1000. I assume something like in the money May/June calls for now?

    Please enlighten
    I would love to hear some tips for a beginner, something basic for now.

  100. There is quite the FUTF down to $42.025 - with an equally sharp stick-save back up going on right now --- I love how 42 seems to have become a vulcanized rubber support in the last 8 hours or so.

    @ Walt - if you go back 4-5 more threads ('Glad to be Wrong' onwards), several extensive tutorials are presented on starting out in options, including reference materials.

    thinkorswim is owned by TD and may be available in CA (and has a pretty good interface/rates for options), but look for platform recommendations as well.

  101. Thank you CD, I had a feeling I did not read enough but it took me like an hour just to get through two threads and all the comments.

    Would love to hear from anyone else though and of course a big thank you to the Turd for doing this.
    Glad to see such an open community!

  102. Any info, what this huge sell off is about?
    0.60 in 30min

  103. Perhaps a bit of a smack down prior to the LBMA open coupled with a bit of profit taking I recon. Looks to have bottomed around 42 and should climb from here into the weekend.

    Heres hoping!

  104. It doesn't really need to be about anything. With the spike we had yesterday any trader using technicals is bound to get jumpy. Most technicals are absolute rubbish in the silver market but that doesn't mean people won't trade accordingly. We've pierced the upper Bollinger band which generally signals overbought and some selling to come. The MACD is overdue for some downwards movement, but it has been so for over...heck I don't know how long - very long. The RSI was about to kiss the 80 again, which is also a sign people use to sell.

    But seriously, DON'T use these things as actual indicators. Last time I did that I missed out on a ride to the next floor, had to take the staircase instead of the silver elevator.

    All that's worth its salt with PM's is simple resistance, support, and patterns; basically what Turd is doing. And right now we seem to have some very nice support with silver over at 41.80 which is absolutely fabulous considering how high we've gone. Gold seems to have support at 1472.

    If these hold today can become a very nice day and it'll probably defy all technical indicators - again. The PM's are really good at making you stare in disbelief at what you once thought were rather solid tools of analysis. It's not uncommon for silver to trace the upper Bollinger band or to meander up and down through 80 RSI and keep going up.

  105. Ok this is a buying opp right here. Careened right over 42 but recovered quite quickly.

    I'm looking to keep dry powder for more of this BS for later and enter as low as possible.

    Basically keep the buy below 42. Somewhere there is the sale price.

  106. Coming now again. We'll see how strong this 41.80 really is. I'm guessing it ain't.

  107. True, I'm usually too optimistic once I'm in silver, as I'm also usually too pessimistic once I'm out of the stuff again.

    41.80 holding is probably too much to ask. But it's already cleared the stop losses below 42 so it'll need more momentum than its doing right now to swing down and trigger some more.

    The POSX isn't helping either. The EUR.USD has been topping for a couple of days now and it really needs to break and stabilize through 1.45. A few Dutch analysts I know have been calling for a euro-correction downwards before continuing the trend up; that would momentarily relief the POSX from a lot of its downwards pressure, putting some strain on these PM heights.

    Crude is also looking for some support while careening downwards.

    Basically, we're getting a repeat of yesterday's action. EUR.USD is dropping, relieving pressure on the POSX, creating some downwards movement in commodities. If this day turns out like yesterday, we'll first spike some lower again, find support once the EUR.USD rebounds upwards because everyone suddenly realizes the dollar is still a heap of shit, and then the PM's also spike up again.

    So far 41.80 is holding. Not sure whether you can call it support though. It's not as if we've been here on these heights for all that long.

  108. @Fleve: I have a pivot of 41.70s on the Daily. So it'll likely swing +- 80c around there.

    My own bids are in the 41.20 range. We just need to hang on today, buy if we can and ride out to Friday close.

    Early next week onwards should provide blue sky to 45 after all the option expiry smoke.

  109. Last couple of hours, sold my longs on breakouts down with avg 42.12.
    I'll buy increasingly larger positions down on raids to 41.80, .65, and .30. Always possible we'll visit 41s again, but 40s? Doubtful.
    I see any entry under 42 is a gainer for rest of month.
    I will be holding over weekend.

  110. Oh! Meant "Always possible we'll visit 40s again, but 39s? Doubtful."

    Stink bid = 40.75
    Rotten Egg bid (-5% of overnight high)= 40.32

  111. hey guys can you recommend me some beginner technical analysis book? Or some other good book about econ.


  112. Huge advice if you trade XAG/USD forex - you've got to set your alarm clock for 2:30 am.
    Sell high at 3am, buy back at 7am.
    It's worth a swing of 50 cents to $1 per contract nearly every day.

  113. Not sure how many read this site, always on mu must list, thought you may like the latest view,its primarily on Silver

    "In reference to real money the silver trap JPMorgan Chase and HSBC have been trapped in is in all probably coming to a close. We see default somewhere between $48.00 and $60.00. The losses could be as high as $150 billion."

  114. @Pailing, your spot on, i have been doing this all week, allmost trading 24/24.... i'm glad it's weekend .. must .. get ..sleep

  115. Blargh. I haven't got any dry powder left.

    Or rather, I haven't got any quick dry powder left. Just send another batch over to my broker with a expedited wire transfer; took my bank 20 minutes to transfer, my broker a few seconds to place into my account. But now I'm stuck with Euro's and I need dollars for pretty much any ETF out there. Buying dollars always feels like an idiot move but it can't be helped.

    Sadly, I'm still on a cash account. So once I sell euro's and buy dollars it takes a day before my cash balance is settled again and I can actually use it to buy something.

    Don't have enough cash yet for a day-trade account with margin. I don't plan to use the margin, but I really wouldn't mind not having to wait for my cash to settle. Ah well, I'm happy enough as it is. I'm a pretty poor graduate student of medieval history; half a year back I never thought I'd own a portfolio and now I've had to clear out some space to make room for a new investing bookshelf. Life moves pretty fast and unexpected.

    Anyone starting out, on investing in general I'd recommend:
    - Philip A. Fisher, Common stocks and uncommon profits.
    - Benjamin Graham, The intelligent investor.

    In case of commodities, you've all probably already read:
    - Jim Rogers, Hot Commodities

    Anyone in search for some sites that explain technicals:
    Great stuff over there. If you're new to technicals or investing in general, their videos (over at are fun to watch and explain a lot in easy language.
    A really condensed guide on swing trading. Even if you're not planning to become a swing trader, at least you'll learn something about resistances, support, entry and exit points, moving averages, volume, etc. It's a nice site. But don't think this all applies to silver. Technicals are a nice indication, but silver more often than not defies every technical indicator and just does what it wants to.

  116. "One big difference, there will be no membership fee or subscription cost."

    There damn well better not ;).

  117. jmoran: thanks for the link. I'm reading Bob Chapman's article archive now.

  118. I ran across this story and thought some might like to read it. Good news for PM's bad news for the US:

    China, choking on U.S. debt, is reportedly beginning to divest itself of U.S. bonds. Japan will need to sell U.S. bonds to get hard currency to repair the damage from the earthquake and tsunami. And the Fed is about to end its QE2 monthly purchases of $100 billion in U.S. bonds.

    Where is the Fed going to borrow the $125 billion a month to finance this year's deficit of $1.65 trillion, and another of comparable size in 2012?

    Bill Gross' Pimco, the world's largest bond fund, has sold all his U.S. bonds and begun to short U.S. debt. Pimco is betting that the value of U.S. Treasury bonds will begin to fall.

    We may be about to enter a maelstrom.

    But as countries begin to choke on U.S. debt, the market starts to dry up. To attract investors, the Fed must raise interest rates, which sends bond prices sinking and forces interest rates up across the economy.

    With interest rates rising, gas prices rising and inflation rising, the squeeze is on, and there is talk of a double-dip recession.

    And if that happens, Obama is toast. But, then, so are we.

  119. "Irene said...
    @ sumo.

    Their proofing dept. was busy surreptitiously reading Turd's blog. Shoulda been $82.20. ;)"

    82,20 really seems a little low for 12 months off.

  120. Moody's has lowered Ireland's credit rating to baa3, just above junk status.

    I guess to prop the dollar people are now pointing to the problems other currencies also have. Not gonna work though. The euro has been weak and falling for ages; the dollar has just been falling faster.

  121. I made a toast to you last night Turd,.. sounded a bit strange toasting to a turd but you deserve it none the less. Thanks for your work

  122. @Pailin: Good morning! Excellent trade strategy there. I used to do that but got too tired after awhile! :P

    At this point I'm only buying if the sticker price is good. That being said the lowest it can go today (which I think is the 41.20s is quite possibly a no-lose kinda situation.)

    All the best to us!

  123. @Sam
    You know it! I'm so beat up by 5pm for the same reason. Helps to be unemployed and not have to pretend to be engaged in some sort of bs job when the boss walks by (which is how it was for me in financial services 97-2010)
    C'mon weekend - get over here..I need the sleep :)

    Good recommendations there. I think one or two may be new to me, ah more reading!

    I would be ok with a free general area and a $5/mo (or something similar but lowish) restricted area too. That would act as a huge barrier for trolls. It's one thing to be a jerk for free on your iPhone, posting while waiting for your bus to show up, another thing to pay $$ (even if it is fiat!) for same. Just a thought..

  124. Speaking of trade currency, I'm considering converting my capital account into EUR or CHF.

    It's currently dollar denominated and we know where that is going.

  125. Well I read the previous threads. Would still like to hear , especially from anyone trading out Canada, suggestions as to which platform is the most recommended? Any tips on starting out with $1000. Maybe Ginger will chime in :)

  126. @JoeKa
    Good morning back atcha :)

  127. @JoeKa
    re: USD vs. xxx denomination.
    I've been thinking similar but may begin to hedge my forex dollar gains (when I sell XAG/USD) by buying (EUR/USD). I'll eat a bit in spread but not get burned if PO$X take a sudden monster dive under 74 or whatever.

  128. Hmm. XAG rocket just took off again, my core is enjoying the spike. What's up? Something terrible happen in Europe?

  129. I keep thinking, the POSX is gonna catch a must catch a bid, and it never comes or holds on long enough. :P

    Ok some strong impulse buying going on now.

  130. back to 42.3 very quickly just there

  131. This won't look good on the London fix. Where are Da Boyz?

  132. I see nothing significant coming through Reuters...not anything we didn't already know anyway.

  133. @sumo: yeah its just about time for that fix!

  134. Pailin, eurozone inflation is up but surely this is priced in.

    I don't know what sparked this rise.

    42.40 now

  135. Perhaps there's some clue in here:

    1001 GMT [Dow Jones] Major currencies are stuck in a narrow range ahead of U.S. CPI data at 1230 GMT. Euro-zone CPI has passed quietly despite showing a higher-than-forecast rise; it had been foreshadowed by the flash estimate earlier this month.

  136. Oil, gold, silver went up together.

    For live one-minute crude oil (and other instruments) check out:

  137. Crazy, I'm not seeing any news either.
    Is 42 the new BTFD target? (only half kidding)

  138. JoeKa, are you suggesting that someone got the U.S. figures ahead of the announcement??

    I don't believe that could happen!

  139. Man, is that it? I sure hope so! I added Comex SI exactly at the bottom of that dip. I hope it doesn't go back down and re-test.

    My buy/sell timing is my worst skill and I'm almost never lucky, but that time I was super lucky.

  140. @e73: no thats a forward statement on Dow Jones. The core CPI data is expected later at 1230GMT, i.e. 8.30am.

    It's not expected to show any difference from previous, i.e. 0.2%.

    But we know the truth don't we? ;)

  141. I'm agreeing with you guys that the timing of that rise back up is very strange. This is usually the raid prime time. Also, the volume seems so mild for such a strong return to near price top.
    This should be either a bull trap or some inside info on something happening later.

  142. Today:

    3-Yr Note Settlement

    10-Yr Note Settlement

    30-Yr Bond Settlement

    Consumer Price Index
    8:30 AM ET

    Empire State Mfg Survey
    8:30 AM ET

    Treasury International Capital
    9:00 AM ET

    Industrial Production
    9:15 AM ET

    Consumer Sentiment
    9:55 AM ET

    Charles Evans Speaks
    11:15 AM ET

    Thomas Hoenig Speaks
    1:30 PM ET

  143. whoa, it's really catching wind in the sail now.
    And as Titus said, its selling timeframe not buying.


  144. WHOAA look at silver jump 30 cents

  145. Damn! Look at silver! $42.66 on the Globex!

    Is this "disorderly to the upside"?

  146. This rebound is breathtaking.
    Good morning PM's. It feels like waking up find a load of presents under the tree.

  147. Something else on Dow Jones...but I still don't get why the sudden urge to the upside. I am happy though! LOL

    --Moody's points to ECB rate rise as it downgrades Irish debt

    --As concerns over peripherals rise again, euro will suffer

    --Strong CPI data will make ECB even more hawkish

    By Nicholas Hastings

    LONDON (Dow Jones)--The European Central Bank's policy mix is starting to look toxic.

    Rather than helping the euro by raising yield differentials in its favor, the central bank's rate-raising mode is starting to create problems for the euro zone's peripheral debtors.

    As it downgraded Irish government debt to within a whisker of junk status Friday, credit rating agency Moody's confirmed what many have feared for some time, that higher ECB rates are driving borrowing costs higher and damaging the recovery prospects of peripheral debtors even more.

    On top of that, there is the strength of the euro itself. As it climbs over $1.40, the single currency starts to undermine euro-zone exports. In Ireland's case, its trade with the U.K. will have been damaged particularly by the euro's sharp rise against the pound over the last two months.

    The problem for peripheral debtors, and for the euro too, is that there is little sign that the ECB is about to stop.

    Last week's decision to raise rates by 25 basis points has been followed by a series of official comments confirming that more rate increases are on their way.

    And new consumer price data from the euro zone Friday will only make the ECB more hawkish. Not only was headline inflation revised up to 2.7% from 2.6% last month but core inflation was measured at a 22-month high of 1.5%, well up from the 1.1% estimated in February.

    This will increase fears at the central bank that it is not just higher energy and food costs driving prices higher but second round inflation is starting to get a grip.

    Financial experts are already pencilling in another two rate rises from the ECB this year and another three next year.

    Apart from Moody's downgrade of Ireland, the ECB rate rise last week has also been followed by increasing fears that Greece will still be forced to restructure its debts at some stage. Also, if Finland votes to elect an anti-euro government in general elections this weekend, negotiations for a Portuguese bail out could become even more difficult.

    But, it is the euro-zone banks that are now being dragged more into the picture as threat of systemic risk grows.

    Olli Rehn, the European Union's Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner, summed it up: "There is a risk that debt restructuring would cause a chain reaction through the banking sector."

    For the moment, the ECB is still addressing this risk with its expansionary policy of providing banks with exceptionally low cost funding.

    But, this is also creating its own problems.

    On one hand, banks are becoming increasingly addicted to these cheap ECB funds as the threat of contagion grows.

    On the other hand, this expansionary policy hardly sits well with the ECB's plans for higher rates, suggesting that the central bank may yet be forced to start to withdraw this funding just when euro-zone banks may need it even more.

    All this could help to explain that when the new CPI data was announced Friday, the euro failed to rally at the prospect of higher interest rates as it might have in the past. Instead, the single currency remained largely static, showing little sing of breaking out of the narrow trading range that has prevailed against the dollar for at least a week.

  148. To add to that news, POSX is actually UP!
    More confounding.

  149. did they just invert the algo´s? ;-)

  150. @Walt,
    In the money silver calls sound like a high probability trade to me. I've been trading SLV with options. Best lesson I have learned here: BTFD.

    I've been waiting for a dip this morning and missed it at 5:22am when I first awoke. Silver at 42.60. the GS rhetoric seems to have failed. Margin hike being whispered (is this true?) and I am torn with rejoicing for my physical and lamenting that I didn't jump in with both feet yesterday morning (only one).

    Happy trading to all! May your path be lined with green candlesticks today.

  151. Titus-

    A bull trap? Pretty hard to keep the big beast contained, right?

  152. @Kurt: you know something. The sooner these traders understand that ALL fiat is shit, the better we'll all be.

    I think we're coming closer everyday.

  153. How can you BTFD anymore when no ones knows where the F the FD is?

  154. Today I made 100 bucks. Tomorrow buying physical silver. Thanks Turd.

  155. Pathoekstra,
    Well, it don't look like a bull trap anymore. Not after that 2nd stage. It's got to be insider knowledge of today's news.

  156. BTFD is a slingshot ride requiring perfect timing and a crystal ball to get onboard. Who knew? (only the Turd knows. Wake up sleepy head. The kiddy Turds can't wait to open their presents.)

  157. This comment has been removed by the author.

  158. @Me: "Today I made 100 bucks. Tomorrow buying physical silver."

    Quite possibly, the smartest guy (or gal!) in the room.

    I salute Me, I mean him, you I mean...oh I give up. LOL

  159. Amazing it's trading over bollinger band. No sign of retreating. Daily Slow stochastic just starting to point up.

  160. I see a big FUBM in the chart today. I learned that by watching Turd.

  161. Swiss staircase forming on 1 min. silver chart

  162. Buying now seems to be too much of a gamble, i'll wait for it to go down on nyse open and step back in.

    Made money from 41.87 to 42.60 tho :)

  163. I think this is the Mother of All FUBM.

  164. Same thing happened. We were waiting for 38 silver. After Monday we were waiting for 39 silver. Never happened. Looks like new decade started. Goodbye 30 silver.

  165. For those that lost money on CDE -> '$CDE Coeur Manquiri Receives Assurance from Morales Administration... '

  166. Ok to close the loop on this market buying urge in London:

    EURO GOVT-Irish yields rise after downgrade; Greek also up

    * Moody's cuts Ireland to just above 'junk'
    * Spanish 10-year bonds underperform ahead of auction
    * Greek bonds stay pressured by restructuring fears
    * Bunds struggle to gain traction from periphery woes

    By Kirsten Donovan

    LONDON, April 15 (Reuters) - Greek and Irish bond yields rose on Friday and were set to climb further on growing speculation Athens will eventually need to restructure its debt and after Moody's downgraded Ireland to just above junk status.

    Spanish bonds also underperformed at the 10-year maturity as investors booked profits from a rally through March ahead of a bond auction next week.

    With its bailout request "(giving) some clarity over Portugal, investors are looking at who's next and seem to have gone back 12 months to look at Greece," said WestLB rate strategist Michael Leister.

    "We'll probably see further pressure into next week with Spain selling 10-year bonds and the market trying to squeeze out a liquidity premium."

    Rising Greek yields reflected disappointment that the government only presented the outline of fresh fiscal plans but left the details to be spelled out after Easter

  167. Comex open will be interesting.

  168. First layer of resistance sits at 43.25-43.50. However, with the performance of the last 48 hours, anything is possible.

  169. Hot from belgium :
    (google Dutch to English translation)

    Inflation in the eurozone in March accelerated to 2.7 per cent annually. According to a second estimate of Eurostat, the European statistical office.

    In a first estimate was based on an inflation of 2.6 pc. In February inflation was 2.4 per cent.

    Inflation is the fourth consecutive month above the limit of 2 pc. The European Central Bank (ECB) policy seeks an inflation of around 2 per cent after.

  170. For those that lost money on CDE -> '$CDE Coeur Manquiri Receives Assurance from Morales Administration...

    Assurance from a socialist? That's...reassuring.

  171. what is going to go on in June when QE2 ends?
    if QE2 stops Cold Turkey, and no QE3 for a bit,
    Will folks be reducing their exposure, prior?
    If we make it that far...
    Could ending QE2 b used to manipulate the public away from PM?

  172. 42.7 those SLV 44 may calls lookin good

  173. This morning shows the absolute need to hold a core in this bull and only trade the edge. I didn't do that my first trip (Nov-Jan in XAU as recounted yesterday) in this game. Learning experience.

    Now I do.

    You never know when the daily cycle of raids, etc. will fail to appear (like expected fight at 40 the first time) or be weaker than expected and instead it pumps way up.

    Likewise, when we're moving $1-$2 day now up, it can go down as much or more on emotion and profit-taking, so keep those 41s and stinky 40s bids in. And if you're holding right now, be familiar with pyramiding so you can sell the edges too and reload for those stinky buys. You may just grab them yet.

    And (do as I do) sweep you acct weekly, monthly or something regular of profits and buy physical. The paper game will end, it's a foregone conclusion. The only hazy gray is "when". When it happens, better they zero value your fiat that you may in the last few weeks only, while the rest of your gains are stacked sweet and pretty 6ft under in the back yard :)

  174. If you are long XAG/USD, there is a way to go short at the same time:

    (a) Go short XAG/JPY, and
    (b) go long USD/JPY for the same dollar amount

    Transaction (a) reduces your net exposure to XAG
    Transaction (b) cancels (nets out) your exposure to JPY

    On the one hand, it uses a lot of margin.

    On the other hand, the margin required doesn't move much with XAG because you are hedged.

    I've done this from time to time on OANDA, at the onset of a heavy EE raid, and closed out (a) and (b) afterwards for a profit.

    Normally (b) would be optional, and a rising JPY actually helps the position. But lately, JPY jumps around like Mr Booyah himself.

  175. oil dropping, but PMs toughing it out

  176. Good morning all

    If you like a great rant (and who doesn't) I recommend copying the link below and paste it into your browser ... the rant begins at the 3 minute mark of the 16 minute video .... Brother John totally undress's a PM shill. The shill is a hedge fund manager. Sad that these guys even exist. Brother John did great investigative work.

  177. Good Morning

    Gramp - look at Europe - raise rates - inflation worries raise the price of PMs. So if the US stops its low rate policy, the same thing will happen. Stopping QE or keeping it going, same difference. But they won't stop it - we have discussed this ad nauseum - Turd wrote a good piece about it.

    Is this a brand new Me, or a reformed old Me? Either way, let's hope this is the beginning of a fine relationship.

    Pailin - but if you get the new job what will you do? Did you ask for regular 'bathroom breaks' so you could keep in touch with Turds.

    And sleeping through these dips makes you more and more firm about the trend.

    Titus - 'Disorderly to the Upside' would be my favourite t-shirt!

  178. Thanks sumo, I was looking for an interesting way to hedge on the forex.

    That sounds like a winner !

  179. "@Markus
    I would be ok with a free general area and a $5/mo (or something similar but lowish) restricted area too. That would act as a huge barrier for trolls. It's one thing to be a jerk for free on your iPhone, posting while waiting for your bus to show up, another thing to pay $$ (even if it is fiat!) for same. Just a thought.."

    Dunno. I think this just conflicts with the principle of giving. I think guys like Turd want to share something with the rest of us. I think it is not sharing if something is asked in return.

    Lol, I'm not even religious, but that must have sounded pretty much like I were :)

    Anyway, I think the best troll repellant is a good, composed, constructive community. If noone lets himself go into that destructive behavior that is synonymous with trolls, this just will not be a place they like.

  180. I am very grateful that you are doing the work that you do. I am new to following the markets, investing in commoditites and trying to better understand what is happening to our economy. The information you post is so important to me and people like me. This former sheeple is learning to become a person of concern. I am very excited about the new site you have referenced the past few days. The charts you provide help to shed light on some of the other information that I read at ZH, JSMineset, Bob Chapmans International Forecaster and the like. The information you provide is invaluable. Without your work, all the other information does not make sense, it's just words on a page. Forever grateful for your service.

  181. Good morning one and all, may we all have a profitable day.

  182. trollercoaster:
    "hey guys can you recommend me some beginner technical analysis book? Or some other good book about econ."

    i cut my teeth in technical analysis by reading "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets" by John Murphy

    Worth the investment.

  183. Another good book is "Techniques of a Professional Commodity Chart Analyst" by
    Arthur Sklarew. Out of print but you can find
    it on Amazon.

  184. Low vol tension building at 42.50.
    Feels like gunfight at high noon, first to blink, and all that.

    re: new job
    If I get it, I won't be much of a spec anymore. I'll still play XAG, but more along the lines of targeted if/thens like this - "if buy 42, then sell 43.5" and let the market move as it will.

  185. I think that troller has had his fun, and it is time to stop.

  186. I would recommend the following books:
    - 'Rich dad, poor dad'
    - 'Come into my trading room - Alexander Elder'.

    Those books are all you need.

  187. @Xty
    Thank you for the "smack" in the face to calm me! guess i was reading some troll rant and got all twisted around.
    Fundamentals Remain. Even if they do keep trying to shake everyone out of the tree!

  188. BRICS challenge of dollar as world currency makes the Washington Post. No mention of gold/silver involvement in standard, but still a mainstream paper suggesting devaluation and departure from dollar as sole reserve currency.


  189. I haven't spent much time looking at a regular S & P 500 chart for a while, but I'm looking at one right now. Yikes!

    I'm no expert, but I think I know a double top when it's staring me in the face.

  190. Gramp - Hope I didn't sound too cranky - but we are on the way to fifty - then we can stop and worry about dips.

  191. Thanks alot Turd. Learning to navigate a bull is very important. Learning to think like a good momentum trader is a counterintuitive art form and you understand it well. Bob Chapman told me in an email over 6 months ago now to literally go all in to Silver and Silver miners when it was trading around 18 or so. I thought he was moonbat crazy. That guy has been incredibly accurate as well in his longer term analysis. He told me to pay no attention to Mish and the other deflationistas out there who were crying for a downturn in all assets. I remember that debate clearly. It made my head spin and I wasted alot of time reading all the academic junk they shoveled. Glad I did not buy into it.