Friday, April 1, 2011

The Big Picture (What's Really Going On)

Never lose sight of the big picture. Perhaps today is a good day for a reminder.

The U.S. government is broke/bankrupt. We are currently $14T or so in debt with future obligations of almost $75T. There is absolute zero desire from our political class to address this issue because "austerity" will cost a lot of power-hungry politicians their power.

The goons and hacks at the U.S. Federal Reserve understand this. Besides default, which isn't possible, the only way out of this overwhelming debt burden is through inflation of the money supply. Simply stated, you pay off yesterday's bills with the devalued currency of tomorrow. This is what will and must happen. There is no alternative. The responsibility of The Bernank and his cronies is too attempt to bring the dollar slowly. A steeply descending and crashing US$ would have grave consequences for world inflation and stability. Therefore, though the decline and devaluation of the dollar is inevitable, every attempt is and will be made to manage the decline in stages. Economic reality dictates that the only viable tool the Fed has to manage this process is MOPE (Management of Perceptions) and SPIN (disinformation and outright distortion of data).

This is exactly what we have seen in the past 24 hours. Take a look at this 2-hour chart of the June POSX (our new name for the USDX):
Note how the rally from critical support near 75.50 had been blunted at 76.70 and the index was beginning to rapidly accelerate downward, back toward a test of 75.50. "Good heavens", exclaimed The Bernank, "we must act quickly". Thus began an almost endless parade of Fed hacks, breathlessly proclaiming that QE3 was in doubt and that higher rates lie just over the horizon. The result...a sharp rally in the POSX. Then today, on the back of a "better than expected" BLSBS report (which the Fed clearly knew in advance and is bullshit anyway. Over half of the "payrolls" are imaginary jobs courtesy of the "birth/death adjustment), more SPIN has driven the POSX back up to 76.70. Do not be surprised if the SPIN continues in a desperate attempt to drive the index toward the next resistance at 77.15 and paint the chart with a break of this intermediate trend:
Will they succeed? Probably but who cares? Always remember the big picture. The only way out of the U.S. debt debacle is to devalue and inflate. Period. If the POSX heads up toward 77 or 79, it doesn't matter. It will roll over again soon and the managed decline will continue. Do not, under any circumstances, allow the shills and topcallers to scare you out of your PMs. Physical gold and silver are your only protection against this madness.

OK, onto the PMs. Part of my responsibility here as chief chartreader and handholder is to provide you with support levels to watch on days like this. If support holds, you can feel good about doing some dip buying. If support fails, you can lightly liquidate if you'd like and look to buy back at the next support level. For today, here's your gold chart:

We continue to be rangebound between 1415 and 1445. There should be LOTS of support near 1415. We've already seen it in the time its taken me to print this chart and write this blog. Gold bottomed at 1413.50 and is now already back to 1422.30.

Here's your silver chart:
Again, lots of support (buying pressure) between 36.50 and 37. As we learned yesterday, even The Wicked Witch wants to buy there: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mOnKAh1L9e8
Again, in the time its taken me to type this, we've dipped to 37.08 and recovered to 37.30.

So, hang in there and never lose sight of the big picture. If all the BS becomes too much to take today, I suggest you shut off your TV and computer and call it an early week. The important (for silver) month of April begins in earnest on Monday so be ready. I'll post more today as conditions warrant. TF

1:10 EDT UPDATE:
If you're looking for something to watch, a close above 37.98 will give us an UP ORD in silver. A close below 75.88 on the June POSX will give us a DOWN ORD for the $.
It goes without saying that both developments would have significant implications for next week.

183 comments:

  1. Taken from last thread / post:

    BTW...

    and please correct me if I'm worng, 'cause I dont know too much about these kind of stuff, but I can see a cup and handle formation from the 24th till today in the 1h graph.

    Handle cortesy by BM herself :)

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  2. Would be nice for another FUBM pushing through 38.

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  3. Foreign Banks Tapped Fed's Lifeline Most as Bernanke Kept Borrowers Secret

    Well the light of day shined on some of the cockroaches. Just hope it isn't entirely drowned out by that "great" jobs report. Wishful thinking.

    Reported by Bloomberg and headlined in Drudge:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-01/foreign-banks-tapped-fed-s-lifeline-most-as-bernanke-kept-borrowers-secret.html

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  4. Blythe baby,
    Thank you for the dip this morning. It was even after the open of the Sheep Market in NY so I could get back heavy into SLV options for today and May. You look like you could use a cup of coffee after all the work you've done this last hour... How bout meeting me in half an hour for a nooner and a cig?
    Love,
    MHT

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  5. Are you kidding me BM...thats it??? Where is the major cram down we are all waiting for? What you say... the FUBMs are getting old? Awww come on.... just one more time... for old times sake. Lol

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  6. For those who do not completely understand this post, keep re-reading it until you do. Well done sir, and next step up is coming.

    Looks like we have a triple bottom at ranging from 1410-1415. I don't think this is a normal charting pattern, but I am going to proclaim it bullish :)

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  7. It's not unusual for the EE to attack when the bullshit labor lies come out. What we want to see is a very strong FUBM going into the weekend spells for a good Monday. Everything that the Great Turd said above is absolutely true and the most accurate analysis of the situation you will ever find anywhere on the web. Its about the fundamentals and the laws of logic. They can only be made to appear suspended with a lot of lying and deception. The labor statistics are apart of that deception. Go FUBM !!!!

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  8. The manipulation is so apparent it's quite hilarious actually. When I see the equity markets rallying, oil moving higher, and platinum/palladium flat to up, it can be nothing other than BM and her monkeys playing their games.

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  9. Paper and talk are cheap.Well here in the UK things are moving swimmingly fuel,food,cigarettes and everything else to lead a normal productive life are heading up,up and away,Government policy unofficially is if they are unaffordable they do not need importing,give this a few months and the middle east syndrome will be alive and well in British Streets,BTFD,s.

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  10. Miracle of miracles: AUY is in the green. UP six cents. And man is Randgold kicking ass. I don't think we'd see these names in the green if we were going to be slaughtered again. It bodes well.

    SK

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  11. Scott,

    Please give the url for your blog again. I would like to pay a visit now and then.. Thanks

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  12. Maybe I wasn't last for once. Ha. So sorry, but cut and paste:


    Pining, Eric, Rick - I too am pining for afrum. Nobody can capture his happy rage, AND he was knowledgeable about market happenings and in his special way actually told you when certain concrete events were going to take place, and how that would affect the price of silver. Strangely simple, like an oracle, but with facts.

    And could that please be the bottom? Three legs is very common.

    Great post, TF. Thank you for the levels - very reassuring - and still validated by the charts.

    Raul - I can't remember what it was, but I know I was going to agree with you.

    Titus - thanks for responding. I am just underwater, barely on GPR.

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  13. Guys its still dangerous out there. If still trading, pls be extra careful.

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  14. Another great and timely post Turd!!! Never lose sight of the big picture sums it all up.


    Replying to comment from previous post:

    @AD1791 -- welcome on board.

    Is your handle by any chance a reference to this? If so, cześć. I'd be curious to hear any first-hand details on the singularity event that the zloty went through - precursors, side effects, etc.

    My own (original) currency's epic demise was before my time...

    @CD

    It didn’t take long to decipher my handle, yeah that’s one of the brightest moments of our nation. Too bad it went to waste but it’s a lesson to future generations and other nations that when freedom is lost is lost for years.

    As far as the zl devaluation I was too young to really notice it but my parents did. Fortunately my dad was always pragmatic man and turned most of the family funds into land & PMs (silver coins) before the inflation kicked in.

    He gave me a lesson on how inflation works with a small presentation. Average monthly pay back in 70s was around 2k. At the last stage of the inflation a small carved tree bark mask that you could pick up at the fair market was priced at 180k. He still has that mask with the price tag glued to it. It’s a real eye opener.

    Debt is debt and you can’t print your way out of it. President at the time (Gierek) had connections with West bankers and took huge loans. At first live improved and everyone was happy but paying back the interest eventually overwhelmed the economy, unrest turned into Solidarity movement then came Martial law, then rationalized food and empty store shelves. Rest is history.

    We are all running on the borough time here, prepare accordingly.

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  15. @EA in case you missed it in the last thread thumbs up to Credit Unions. I've been out of them for awhile and thanks for reminding me. Bankster's hate 'em and for good reason.

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  16. Ya know I wouldn't doubt it if this whole thing is a scam. The Fed screws over the dollar and inevitably the public by our so called "slow decline" while JP Morgan suppresses the price of silver, watches allocation for SLV, now owns it's own COMEX vault, and is actually in the process of buying and owning ALL of it.

    All in advance of a pre planned event where JP Morgan is set up to be the head of banking in a new currency system.

    It just wouldn't surprise me, that's all. Nothing happens by chance, and the deeper we get, the more interconnected it looks. Yea a high Gold price doesn't look good for stability, but neither does the dollar at almost an all time low. I say the whole thing is planned, AND that they have a gangster exit strategy.

    My 2 cents.

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  17. Turd,
    Any chance you can do a little networking and line up some interviews for Santelli?
    Maybe he can guest post on the new site too.
    Anybody waiting for the lunchtime smackdown?

    Word verify.. B rants

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  18. http://sanders.senate.gov/newsroom/news/?id=ECE720E4-D5D6-4EFF-937C-DCADA784C3F9

    What the hell is going on here ?

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  19. Excellent post Turd.
    I'll add my take too:

    Bernank to Obama - we need to slowly devalue the currency to keep interest payments on our debt low.

    Obama - duh... ok.

    Bernank to Geithner - we are going to keep the dollar low. Inflation will pickup, so go tell JPM to manipulate PM's down.

    Geithner - I agree. I'll tell Blythe to hammer them down at every NY market open. It won't be obvious to the American Idol contenstants.

    Bernank to the public - We don't have inflation. People have more sophisticated diets..

    CNBC - duh.... ok..

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  20. SSK...yes, my AUY and other miners are doing very well during all this....SLW is a bit below my buy point, but who knows if I'll get a chance to buy even lower to complete my position...I mean, more than 50c lower!

    My heart is breaking, however, over my CEF purchase yesterday...Premium was 4.8%, a nice drop from earlier premiums...Oh, well!

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  21. I'm calling a bottom! I'm buying for all that it's worth. Based on what you say? It's April Fools Day!

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  22. I honestly think they will force the price down as much as possible using paper,buy as much physical as possible and at some predetermined moment the price will go hyperbolic,when this is due I know not,but thats how I feel.Forget the Fed and the Government at some point as the banks cannibalise each other in the markets their own survival will predetermine PM,s going hyperbolic,as institutions they will end up on the winning side by hook or by crook.

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  23. Turd, thx for the great post!

    Nit: I think you forgot a "down":

    "The responsibility of The Bernank and his cronies is to attempt to bring the dollar **DOWN** slowly."

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  24. Chris...you said:
    "All in advance of a pre planned event where JP Morgan is set up to be the head of banking in a new currency system."

    Discussion yesterday over at SilverGoldSilver with a video on spending gold and the new system.
    I'm still wondering about how this all plays out.
    Making me nervous if I can only buy 8 cars with the gold I own (referring to the example in the responses to that post--the hypothetical value of a "gold dollar) and I have NO idea how they would deal with silver....

    I'm too old for this!

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  25. Insight : 8 Mercedes or 8 Toyota ?

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  26. I think part of the big picture is a currency war between US and China.

    US to China: "FU PBoC, get off the f!cking peg, or we'll inflate commods up your wazoo, until your exporters have margins thinner than a business card."

    China to US: "Try it, bitch. See what happens."

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  27. Loaded up on AGQ and EXK .... but it's always a pain to watch it bounce positive and negative after you buy, hoping you actually picked the bottom, hoping that the monkeys are tired and sleepy after the beatdown, hoping Blythe doesn't bring in a flying gorilla for the next round.

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  28. AD1791, your comments about the Polish inflation & currency devaluation brought back memories of Russia in the 1990’s. (Many years ago, at one point in time, 1 Ruble = $1.) I still have a few 20,000-Ruble notes that I keep as a reminder, for why it is WISE to accumulate physical PM’s.
    But no worries about massive, uncontrollable inflation here in the USA, right?

    Right?

    Right?

    Un-oh…

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  29. Heck, even Neo-Keynesian extraordinair Paul Krugman doesn't put much faith in this lackluster 'recovery'. The chart he posts says it all. We've been meandering about for almost two years now. Heck, a year ago, AFTER the 2008-2009 fiasco, employment numbers were better than they are now. I guess it's only bad news now if a meteor strikes, zombies rise from the grave and all nuclear reactors go boom.

    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/04/01/been-down-so-long/

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  30. The 4hr Gold chart you posted sure looks like an inverted head and shoulders.

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  31. Just sold all of my physical gold and silver....I'm going to bury my box of greenbacks in the backyard...I'll let my family dig um up when I'm dead for their survival.....I know I know.....I better die quick.

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  32. Chris; Of course they have a gangster exit strategy, because that is what they are. They talk up fiat to the masses, and talk down "that barbaric relic". All the while, they understand what gold really is, and have PLENTY of it. They are not fools, just evil. PMs are never to expensive for them to buy, all they have to do is buy it with bills that cost them a nickle to print. In that sense, it is a fixed rate of exchange. Also, consider their gangster exit back in 1933-4. They confinscated the public's gold under duress, paid them $20@ oz for it, and them re-valued it to $35. Thats a 75% profit. Sounds gangster to me. And your right, nothing is done by chance. It is a script, written long ago, and being followed to the letter.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=guaxYD9b9sM

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  33. @ Ben.Roberts

    My blog is http://thehardrightedge.com, I have not updated it in nearly 2 weeks (stressed & lost motivation for the time being), but it is suppose to be more of a magazine layout. I will be working on it again soon enough, but there are definitely some great documentaries/articles that I try to share. My goal in the future will be to have a website with content filtered through my "truth" vision, so those who stumble upon my website will have a perspective that is not found on most websites. I have a long way to go, and trying to find new direction still.

    I appreciate your support,
    Scott

    P.S. I added today on Revett at 5.59 (4 cents off its low so far). Next week is the listing for the AMEX exchange if I do believe so.

    Recently wandered over to:
    http://preciousmetalsector.blogspot.com/

    I don't think anyone will be disappointed with additional perspective, and even writes strategies for those who like this kind of stuff. Anyways, out for a bit. I am expecting when I get back for a very nice FUBM :D

    Bullish on next week.

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  34. Great post Chief Turd.

    "Never lose sight of the big picture."

    Absolutely. We're in a megatrend. If anyone gets depressed looking at the 1 and 5-minute charts, just click on the weekly once in a while. Or to feel really good, look at the monthly. These days will be but a dip... a little foothold on a steep mountain.

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  35. kliguy38 @11:04 a.m.,

    Please say that was an April Fool's Day joke.

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  36. How stupid do they think we are??? This past week was obviously a complete setup to get the FEDs dovish viewpoint out without pushing up PMs.

    1) Get the Hawks out to talk down PMs (check)
    2) Wait for fabricated bullish jobs report (check)
    3) Hammer paper market exactly at post job report (check)
    4) Parade FED prez Dudley out with Dovish comments as PMs are getting hammered. (check)

    Net net....they get their dovish view out without raising PMs.

    Think this is great news for PMs.

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  37. @kliguy

    That's funny. What's more outrageous is that some people might actually miss your sarcasm and agree. We all know a few people like that.

    I'm going to plug your blog because it is required reading for anyone serious about surviving the forthcoming onslaught.

    http://kliguy38depression2news.blogspot.com/

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  38. Things seem to have bottomed out indeed, but gold looks a little indecisive right now.

    Chris - it is a horrible, but plausible thought. And they already have a three letter acronym - it seems to be a stamp of iniquity: IMF, CIA, KGB - although UN is the exception that proves the rule. Bank holiday needed in Japan, so bank holiday justified everywhere because of 24/7 interconnectedness. No electronic banking or trading allowed for say one week. Then it all reopens and 'they' have recalculated all of your holdings according to some secret master plan that balances all the world currencies against the new world currency, maybe the OWB - One World Buck - and they claim it is backed by silver and gold, held in JPM vaults amongst others.

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  39. Funny, it looks like nobody actually believes the 'good news' that's been delivered, not even the markets.

    - Silver is less than 20 cents from today's open.
    - Gold less than 10 dollars.
    - USDX shot up to 76.6, now down to 76.29 again.
    - EUR.USD shot down to 1.4060, now up to 1.4135 again.
    - And it sure as hell isn't making any of the other commodities cheaper.

    It's as if nothing really happened. Even better, I get the impression that whenever the PM's move down really violently, they'll not just bounce up, they'll bounce higher. On the daily this might turn into one of those big down shadows just before another explosion upwards happens.

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  40. dollar giving everything back from the early AM

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  41. Fleve - the USD is tanking, no kidding. And the metals are actually looking very resilient.

    TheObsoleteMan - is it really you again? Was that your humour? I thought for a moment it was lollercoaster back. Have you actually bought any silver yet?

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  42. Jim Rogers buying gold and silver.
    Think he wants in on the FUBM/CME?

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  43. Some contrary information for the gloom and doomers. (I still think big Bens printing press is going to send PM's to the moon).

    I run a business that builds real hardware and sells it to other people that build real physical products. We had a good first Q, even CPI adjusted it looks like the Q1 is back to better than where it was before the 08 crash. We have had a shift in our domestic to overseas sales from 40 export/60 domestic toward a larger export percentage, maybe even 60/40 the other way.

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  44. @AD1791 -- "lesson to future generations" is never a moment lost, though it may seem that way at the time...

    Polak-Wenger dva bratanki, ido sabli, ido sklanki...

    We too had our fair share of hopeful but ultimately doomed revolutions/wars of independence -- and it was not ONLY the American Revolutionary War that many of your brethren participated in...

    Good on you that you had parents with open eyes at an early age. My grandfather was like that, I only wish I had a chance to learn more from him before he passed. His ramblings about the corruption of governments and the deterioration of society make a lot more sense now... And yet he was an eternal optimist who started farming and planting a huge orchard at age 80. Fertile land will always sustain a family willing to take care of it was his motto.

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  45. Turd, Gold/Silver catching a bid on crude's tails? Seems like it.

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  46. I wonder if miners will rally hard if/when gold and silver turn positive or if this is just a day for gold and silver to show their resilience?

    Thoughts?

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  47. newswire story about UN staff being killed, two beheaded in Afghanistan. Don't know if that triggerd crude to rally or not.

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  48. The question becomes cane the FED bring down the dollar at a rate only slightly greater than the debt expands. I don't think they are that skilled. The bottom will fall out and all of PM horders will be sitting fat. Then and only then will I be willing to "share" any of my wealth with those in need and even then only on an individual basis.

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  49. Well that didn't work very well. Poor old Blyth

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  50. Good post Turd. The POSX has been on my mind also.
    I've been watching that $USD bounce like a yo-yo for awhile and I can't help but imagine the levers and maneuvers that must be taking place to try and contain and control the dollar behind the scene.
    A fly on the wall being able to watch and hear what must be taking place behind the scene's would be interesting and/or shocking.

    I think a slow and steady decline is what they are counting on also with interevention at critical points so it doesn't get too out of control or just for MOPE reasons as you stated.

    Bernanke the illusionist is pretty good at this slight of hand stuff "so far" but at some point he will be like someone who is a bit drunk and gets a mug of beer that is too full.
    It WILL spill over at some point, sooner then later.
    All things are eventual, and PM's going much higher and the POSX declining slowly and surely is eventual.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    The take down in the metals this a.m. was hard to stomach even if it was expected.
    I see it's coming back but the damage for the day has been done regarding the miner's etc.

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  51. I don't want to jinx this, but that chart is shaping up to be the Fryday of all Frydays- huge EE efforts for 7 straight trading days, ex-Fed shill games, bs BLS report... and still the proles keep buying, foiling all these schemes. If this keeps up, we aren't just building a platform but a big concrete launch pad. To the moon!

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  52. My comments are as follows. As expected, Blythe came out swinging in the later rounds this week. I had her on the ropes yesterday but backed off expecting her 2nd,3rd and 4th wind. Now I am once again pummeling her with short strikes to the body and some elbows to the head. I pyramided down into her fierce government staged attack this morning. Now I am landing haymakers,knees to the groin and uppercuts. I have learned to respect her, she is a club fighter full of tricks and razor blades sewn into her gloves. I have seen it all. But I am a counterpuncher. I do not care what she throws. I wait for her to bring it and then respond. The best time is 25 to 30 minutes after the official open when the Algo computers hit their reversal switches. The rest is just patience. I am no genius but I can always counterpunch once this demon has committed and thrown the right hand.

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  53. Thanks Turd, as an investor with no real time trading ability on core holdings (thinking about it but probably better this way), I must remind myself daily on the big picture... your support really helps Turd!

    Help please!!!!

    Does anyone have a free site with Comex Au/Ag charts tracking volume as well? Thanks!

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  54. @ Pining. It sure does look like we had a nice week of consolidation in the 37s. Next stop (no pun intended) 40.

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  55. No jinx Pining.

    Half life of "attacks" and "raids" getting shorter and shorter. Be interesting to do a quantititative analysis of this btw -- note to self.

    But the FUBM/FUCARTELs are becoming MUCH stronger.

    Just a fact.

    We are winning.

    Its a war of attrition, just as it always is when any rag tag army takes on an "invincible" force.

    Bluecoats vs. Redcoats
    Jedi vs the Empire.
    Catholics vs. Romans

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  56. kiwi,
    Many of those flying monkeys are worn out from the beatup they got from the silver defenders these first two hours. Almost bagged my limit for the week, so I'm waiting on a couple more of the bigger ones.
    And I'm pretty sure I saw the Witch sitting up on a camel behind the line

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  57. rthaler,
    Way to go hand-to-hand on the old gal. Myself, I can never get that close to her (too many monkeys and her camel is pretty fast).

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  58. Hi Guys, Been out to dinner see silver is at 37.65...no change - Did i miss anything today?

    ;-)

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  59. If these "sellers" that come in every day were real people with real accounts they would have given up by now.

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  60. if she attacks again, it will be @ the 37.75 level aprox.

    hope she doesn't... anyhow, I just made some $$ with AGQ on the rebound :)
    With this money, I'll go and buy some gold (YEEESSSS!!!)

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  61. Pining,
    The more I'm looking at the charts the more I agree with what you said.
    Non stop buying pressure no matter what they throw at the PM's is encouraging.
    Very impressive and keeping me hopeful a breakout will occur. Monday should be special.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    I have this unfounded thought (ok, a hope) that some sporadic strikes by PM miners is a possibility given the economic forces at work and the desire of citizens seemingly everywhere to be treated more fairly and to get paid fairly.
    PM miners in more prosperous and developed nations are probably paid livable wages, But if your a miner from S. America, Mexico or Africa etc. you might be thinking that your way underpaid compared to the high value of what your mining and the demand that exists for your product.
    My thought is that this could be a spring or summer of worker strikes while the opportunity to do so is leveraged and in the miners favor.
    Could you imagine if some widespread work stoppages happened in the PM mining sector?
    The effect on PM's would be huge if they weren't manipulated.
    San Cristobal might be the start of a trend.

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  62. Geez, next month I'm just going to wait til the last Friday and buy on the monthly BLS at the open and make my whole month that day in a couple of hours. Seems a lot easier, and would save a whole lot of stress

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  63. Really, this is incredible. There is a whole slew of buyers out there now that know that the gig is up. Its like they just sit and wait for the latest official nonsense to come out and post another FUBM on the board. In 2010, Fed speeches, margin hikes, BLS(BS) NFP numbers, and massive shorting by Blythe would have sent silver careening downwards and the dollar rocketing up towards 90. Today, the dollar is DOWN and silver is now FLAT. Incredible, and scary. The gig is up, and I don't know if they'll be able to bring down the dollar slowly.

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  64. those 1apr36 calls i bought at .45 sure are looking sweet. i love the way blythe can dip it low --->
    http://new.music.yahoo.com/christina-milian/videos/view/dip-it-low--2159588;_ylt=AjH4AKytNez4bdtxwhMJFlzZsyUv

    on another note, I say we form a "40 at 40" club. I am going out to purchase a 40oz coors light "silver bullet" to drink come $40 day.

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  65. Presumably Blythe makes a ton of cash on these raids too. I mean she knows where the bottom is better than anyone after all.

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  66. New acronym TIT =Time It Takes. In the TIT to read the blog from last night the drop in silver halved. Turd mentioned in TIT to write new blog PM's bounced back.

    xty- I have a farm 1 hr. west of you, no chickens but lots of horses.

    thanks turd- your blog is addictive even if I only long trade two miners.

    Blue Sky

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  67. Congrats to everyone who bought the dip this morning! I'm sure as hell glad I did.

    @Insight

    From what I have seen, Gold would have to be valued at $7000 or so an ounce for a fully backed Gold standard type dollar. So more than likely they would do some sort of partial gold backing.

    But trying to predict what they will do is pointless. We just have to assume that some sort of Gold or Silver backed currency will be conjured up, and all we have to do is be well positioned in physical Gold and Silver when it happens.

    Accumulate as much as you can! And rest easy, it's all we really have control of anyway.

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  68. Sky: Will we see more of Turd's TITs?

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  69. The Monkeys are staggering back to the 4077th Morgue.

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  70. JWMJR, DarkPurple - the POSX is a mess. I think there is a desperate game of hot potato going on with currencies - frantic phone calls - if they can keep the trades moving, the fact that all of them are being inflated won't matter or be noticed. And gold and silver used to follow it more directly - now it seems less so minute by minute - but it is still impossible for them to keep it up and silver and gold just inch up.

    Pining and rthaler - I think we might be having a FRYday, and I hope afrum can attend. Adult beverages, either in consolation or celebration, lest I be dubbed overly enthusiastic, served on FRYdays? Noon onwards in any given time zone? I do think, though, in all seriousness, that we should touch if not go through 38 today. Compared to gold, this is one heck of a FUBM shaping up in silver.

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  71. Really strong and consistent demand now. The raids last but a few short hours now, versus days or weeks over the last few years. I'm in at $9 from Nov 08 and have been steady since...great forum turd.

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  72. It will be a glorious Monday.

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  73. Never forget this is a WAR. Ultimately the banksters want the Gold. The Central Banks are under orders to buy it. But they don't want anybody else owning it. They are in the process of fully divesting millions upon millions of hapless sheeple of their life savings. Banks have lots of contracts long bullion, don't kid yourself. But they will always scheme and cheat and lie and deceive so that they buy on the scary lows after manufacturing media events and pathetic Bernanke dog and pony acts. The Bernank himself is an utterly unbeleivable and pathetic excuse for a human being. An ideologue and academic who has sworn allegiance to a failed system and has never worked a day in his life, never risked anything. And he is butt-boy for the big fellas that give him his walking orders. He is guilty of wide-ranging treason and in a society governed by the rule of law he would be tried and convicted and locked up forever.

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  74. Shortest Monkey attack yet. Silver fully recovered in 4 hrs. WOW.

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  75. HMY and GOLD busting out. What is going on with these South African miners?

    I'm riding HMY to the shiny city on the hill.

    Amen.

    Brother SK

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  76. Jake, Hilsie - I said about a week ago that we were moving up to do some navel gazing around 36. So TITs at 38?

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  77. Short attack and quick recovery. Looking at 2 hr chart the take down and recovery fit nicely into two candles; the take down 8am to 10am and recovery 10am to Noon. On the 24th when silver briefly topped 38 the blast attack lasted twice as long and the slow recovery eventually resulted in low of 36.50 three days later.

    SLW doesn't seem completely convinced yet that silver goes higher from here.

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  78. I've actually started to consider recently that maybe The Bernank really does believe in his own academic bullshit, is so blinded by it that he doesn't willfully lie to us but rather is trapped in his ivory tower skull, and that is precisely why he was hand chosen by his masters and controllers

    Why wouldn't the MOTU who brought us George Bush and Barack Obama do the same over at The Fed?

    I admit it's a longshot, just tryin' to find an alternate prism to make sense out of this guy

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  79. COMEX close raid has tentatively begun. Look for a bottom pre-1:30 on large 1min vols to grab another XAG position (if that's your game and you've got dry powder). Hopefully she'll knock 30-40 cents off and I can grab another :)

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  80. Time to get out the Chipper Jamie....

    Code for today's action: FARGO

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  81. Silver recovered, but gold's lagging a bit behind. To me it seems that gold is the focus of the suppression now. When that bad boy breaks solid above $1444, it's gonna be "show time".

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  82. kiwikwest just fyi i use finviz.com to watch silver price and i swear exk slv mimic silver intrada day action buy sell and all with price of silver like the hft computers are buying and selling exk with every tic of the silver price plus i like exk for daytrading btfd plus no etf daily % fees like slv just my trade fees. just fyi what i noticed and try to exploit i did buy exk at 9.57 today and sold it already will buy more monday thanks to daily silver dips

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  83. http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page72068?oid=124156&sn=Detail&pid=102055

    Gold, silver coins now officially legal tender in Utah

    Utah's tax code says U.S. Mint issued gold and silver coins are currency, rather than assets taxable by the state.
    Author: Dorothy Kosich
    Posted: Friday , 01 Apr 2011
    ,,,

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  84. Pailin- I was thinking along the same lines. Just a random observation here - my impression of chart patterns in the last month or so has been that many EE beatdowns come post 1:30 EST after comex close to do dirty work on low volume (no news to TF's flock), but on Fridays they hit just prior to close - I presume so they can take off for the weekend and the joys of escorts named Jasmine or Destiny- and we get a nice steady rise to the close after that. Monday AM is often a very pleasant time to check your screen. So I'm not selling, but wouldn't be shocked to see a quick strike soon. Those with dry powder might do well here. Good trading, Friends!

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  85. http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page32?oid=124232&sn=Detail&pid=72068

    Future demand growth for silver looks remarkable

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  86. ragedmaximus-

    If you want to mimic afrum (we miss you, buddy!) you have to add more exclamation points, preferably in doubles or triples.

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  87. Pick - I am sure he believes. But I also do believe he takes pills. Some sort of Prozac or there is an adult form of Ritalin out there that starts with an A. But he is smooth and content, kind of robotic. I really believe he is drugged.

    And I totally agree with your rant, and went off the rails myself the other night about their mansions and fancy cars and holidays and golfing with the President - they have to believe or the fantasy vanishes - like children and the tooth fairy (I was going to say Santa but that wouldn't be safe around here!).

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  88. Hopefully this curent 'attack' will bounce back @ 37.58

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  89. Turd,

    Outstanding. One of your best so far.

    Keep the faith crew. I normally don't like making predicitions but I'm thinking next week should see new highs. Once these levels are taken out, a new upleg ensues.

    Bay of Pigs

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  90. pining im watching and waiting for another beatdown today but the recovery looks good today in silver but think gold might weigh silver down today. seriously silver is like a racehorse at the kentucky derby just dying to get out of the dam gate it's trapped in

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  91. ragedmaximus-

    Just pulling your leg, thanks for the info. I found a site www.freestockcharts.com that does a decent job of getting the stocks up in close to real time, so I'm using it to track trades.

    Sometimes I wonder why I trade the miners at all, maybe just stick to AGQ... but there's always that hope that one of your little miners will break out and then it's champaigne for everyone.

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  92. only joined er found tfmetals in feb who is afrum?!!!!

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  93. i use freesto alsovlike williams%R -100 works as a good buy signal intraday

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  94. kiwi, AGQ is a pretty good choice. The rollover loss, that futures-based ETFs suffer from, seems quite low in the case of AGQ.

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  95. Turd, The US is lying about their debt, its really 200 TRILLION. Read--->HERE..

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  96. Here comes the end of the PM trading session beat down.

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  97. RMaximus- Couldn't agree more with your racehorse analogy, and as TF always says the broader fundamentals are unassailable. Honestly, I think we now have the pleasure to be trading one of the most amazing bull markets of all time in PMs. Its not hype, its not a bubble, it is the genuine article. The link Sumo just posted was outstanding- what jumped out at me was how many oz silver are destroyed each year through industrial use:

    - Cell phones used 404.35 tonnes [13 million ounces] of silver last year.

    - Computers consumed 684.29 tonnes [22 million ounces].

    - Thick film PV consumed 1,461.90 tonnes [47 million ounces] in 2010.

    - Automobiles which used 1,119.75 tonnes [36 million ounces] of silver.

    Unless we start mining landfills, these oz are not coming back... amazing.

    I said last week here that the great thing about trading a market like this is when you are right you are VERY right. When you are wrong, relax- you will be right soon enough.

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  98. Overlooked in all the commotion:

    If we take another 25-30 cents out of the POSX, we'll have ourselves a DOWN ORD. Uh-oh...

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  99. It's the 1st of the month which is a huge day for me at the office. Stepped away to do some banking and come back to check the charts- It's as if this morning never happened!

    The longs are unremitting and obdurate.

    Das is Wunderbarr!

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  100. A comment appeared on the last thread which I feel compelled to address:
    ---
    Alex said...
    "Regarding banks, living in Canada I'm extremely comfortable with RBC and think any of the top 5 banks are in great shape especially comparatively speaking with US counterparts. Canadian banks did not have the poor lending practices that their USA counterparts did. Property here is not grossly inflated as it was in the USA prior to the housing collapse which resulted in ridiculous amounts of underwater mortgage defaults in the USA. Our housing prices are certainly slightly on the high end in our major cities however that is due to supply/demand fundamentals. Our cities are multicultural by nature and we have significant immigration."
    ----
    Yikes - If any Canadians think we're in good shape because we're 'not the US', please think again. Canada may not have been as cavalier with monetary policy but we have a lot of the same problems. Besides that, almost 3/4 of our exports go to the U.S. - that's about 20% of GDP, so basically if the US tanks so do we.

    Re: property not being grosly inflated: compared to what? Many mortgages are held by dual-income families/couples - If the US economy tanks then employment will get hit big time... with 35% of home owner income used to pay off mortgages, that number climbs to 60-70% if just one of the income earners loses their job = mortgage defaults. Here in Toronto the prices are mad, and all major cities - where banks lend the most at cheap rates - are seeing their highs. My 'smart money' friends are selling their homes and moving into apartments until it all blows over. I'm moving into my mom's basement... but this is all anecdotal. Do your own research...

    ZeroHedge has a good summary of the Canadian problem:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/canada%E2%80%99s-mortgage-monster

    Even if you see such a rosy future for Canada, do the right thing and prepare accordingly... hedge your home price - go short on things like CAD, Home Depot, and yes, even RBC.

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  101. Kiwi,

    All I've been trading is AGQ for months. It makes life so much simpler not worrying about and watching several positions at once, plus takes the risk out of all the normal potential troubles with miners

    I'm more tentaive w AGQ now near the end of the devlivery months because of any potential default, but that factor doesnt keep me out entirely either

    Plus, we all know there is a massive correction coming at some point, the MOAC mother of all corrections. I'll be using my AGQ profits to spread out into the miners then.

    The MOAC is my buy signal...until then AGQ is clean and simple


    Xty - you sayin you think Bernank takes pills of his own volition, or are you going out on an MKUltra limb? I wasn't entirely clear on your comment there...Thanks

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  102. EA - stupidest article I've ever seen, that's like saying i'm going to live for another 40 years, and 40 years of food, health insurance, housing, and entertainment expenses is going to cost me 2.5 million dollars, so instead of being debt free, i am 2.5 million dollars in debt...

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  103. I'm beginning to think that this Kosherdakota fed goon/thug/asshole should just crawl back into his little Minnesota shell and stfu. What a douchebag.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/kocherlakota-suggests-it-may-be-time-fed-consider-bailing-out-or-least-lboing-america

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  104. Anyone know what a DOWN ORD is?

    I don't. Help me.

    -SK

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  105. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  106. SSK,

    Downward outside reversal day...does not bode well for the POSX

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  107. turd, great post. especially good for cross posting on other forums, as it is a high level that many non traders can understand.
    any chance you can do more of these types of posts?? maybe a post showing the across the board rise in commodity prices over the last year or so?? charts dont lie, and high level posts with charts give people something to look at, even if they dont day trader.
    just a suggestion from a phyiscal pm holder / non day trader, in an attempt to educate more people.

    ReplyDelete
  108. interesting article from the walmart CEO - warning of serious inflation

    http://www.learcapital.com/marketcommentary/7132.html

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  109. THanks Pick.

    For a minute there, I thought something was going down at Chicago O'Hare!

    SK

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  110. Pining, just about every electronics product has silver in it.

    This is because EU banned Lead in solder, under its RoHS program (Reduction of Hazardous Substances). Lead prevents a catastrophic failure mode in electronics devices: short-circuits due to slow growth of tin whiskers from the solder joints.

    Manufacturers now put silver in solder to inhibit tin whisker growth.

    More electronics = more silver demand.

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  111. @SSK
    ORD = Outside Reversal Day

    http://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/outsidereversal.asp

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  112. Turd,

    I was just reading that ZH article on Kocherlakota. The guy's some brilliant mathematician/economist out of Princeton who was raised mostly in Canada. Has serious collectivist delusions. We were discussing them late last night.

    *sigh* If our elites think like this, we have some serious work ahead of us.

    Question: what does a society do when there is such violent disagreement about what direction the country should take? We can't just split the difference anymore.

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  113. My.Harbl.Testes... maybe you should read that article again. US is in debt for future obligations such as healthcare, social security etc. THEY DON'T HAVE THE MONEY TO PAY FOR IT.EVER. That makes the debt explosion MUCH worse than today's measly obligation which is only 14 trillion. Plan on dropping dead today, then there is no future problems for you.

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  114. http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/04/ignore-the-hawks-says-dudley-all-ok/

    "Countering the more hawkish tone in Fed speeches given by Fisher, Plosser, Kocherlakota and Lacker, the Fed’s Vice Chairman is taking the exact opposite tact and saying that there is nothing to fear with inflation and sees no reason to pull back from stimulus. Adults can always disagree when looking at the same set of facts but to see no reason to pull back from a tripling of their balance sheet and virtually zero interest rates is a view that is tough to square with and highlights that this Fed is run by the most extreme doves the institution has ever seen. He also said the rise in commodity prices has “virtually nothing” to do with Fed policy. They take a lot of credit for lifting stock prices and tightening corporate credit spreads but commodity prices are somehow in its own fundamental universe according to the Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve. I grit my teeth."

    The peasants are hungry? Let them eat iCake.

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  115. Turd,

    Have you seen this article about a recent presentation Kocherlakota made?

    http://wallstreetpit.com/68624-bubbly-equilibria-what-does-that-mean

    If you aren't sufficiently infuriated by the guy yet, this should do it

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  116. @Xty

    Thanks for setting the record straight last night. ;)

    ReplyDelete
  117. @ Alex via Dave416

    I’m a Canadian living in a large city in Ontario. The banks in Canada are no different than any other bank. My golf/beer buddies all share Alex’s view, that is things are different here in Canada. Two words come to mind “Normalcy Bias”.

    If the Canadian banks are so great why did the Bank of Canada use the Fed’s discount window? Why did RBC, CIBC and Scotia also use the Fed’s discount window? Why did the Canadian Gov’t backstop CMHC to the tune of 75Billion? I have no doubt there are many reasons why but It’s really very simple. It’s call fractional reserve lending. The capital ratios are much better at the Canadian banks than the US banks but it comes down to simple math, exponential math to be precise. WTSHTF it will be global, everyone and every country will be affected. The difference is some will be hit worse than others that’s it. Live for today, plan for tomorrow, hope for the best and prepare accordingly

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  118. xty: As much as I like to see us close the week at 38 or above I don't think Blyth will let it happen. See may have gotten the snot knocked out of her on the Ag market she has a very nasty knack of geting her second wing right after the CRIMEX closes. Antisipating 37.40 to 37.50 for market close for the week.

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  119. EA-
    Don't really want to get into politics, so I will avoid most of it except to say - social security tax (capped at income of 108K) more than pays for social security right now (if the rest of government didn't rape american's pension fund). If you actually charge social security tax on income above 250K, social security tax would cover it for 40+ more years. the premise that our debt is 200trillion is ridiculous, there is no way the US could accumulate debt beyond 200% GDP... of course the banks could easily have derivative obligations of 600trillion, but that's a different story.

    And even if it's just poor choice of words, please don't ever tell me to "plan on dropping dead today", it's rude and abusive.

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  120. I don't know why Kocherlakota is pissing people off. Keep the printing press going forever it just drives up Gold and Silver.. PHYSICAL. It is unfortunate that some/many people will starve to death.

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  121. Kelly, try this:

    http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/03/ag-commodities-and-coming-inflation.html

    and this:

    http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/02/preparing-accordingly-ii.html

    ReplyDelete
  122. My.Harbl.Testes, so sorry to piss you off. Forget the IF's it doesn't exist anymore. It's gone. OK if I dropped dead today..Oh the pain.

    there is no way the US could accumulate debt beyond 200% GDP You have a lot of reading to do..

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  123. kliguy38

    Gee, if you buried all that lovely greenstuff, I sure hope you used some of those little moisture control things that comes with food storage kits....LOL!

    ReplyDelete
  124. SSK: An ORD can be an extremely important technical indicator. ORD is an acronym for Outside Reversal Day.

    An upward ORD occurs when current day trading makes a low below yesterday's low, then closes above yesterday's high. That's a reversal which occurs outside of the previous days range. A sign of very strong demand a bullish sentiment.

    A down ORD is the exact opposite of all of the above.

    Hope that helps.

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  125. Did you see LIESMAN this am? They were talking about the great job numbers and the manufacturing rise and about how QE2 was OVER.....they were fussing about higher rates and the market.

    Liesman said all the news etc, was "half-baked into Treasury yields" and that just because the rates would go up it didn't mean that the Fed couldn't "accommodate" any need for liquidity.

    Ha! Ha! You bet they can "accommodate".....

    My ears perked up on that one!!!!!!!

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  126. Useful silver charts with VOLUME information -- Where to find?

    SRV ES339 wrote:
    ==================================
    Help please!!!!

    Does anyone have a free site with Comex Au/Ag charts tracking volume as well? Thanks!

    April 1, 2011 11:40 AM
    ==================================

    SRV ES339,

    When I asked a similar question a few weeks ago, Xytabq & another participant directed me to NetDania. V. useful. At the bottom of this chart, you will find a text input box that is labeled "Type instrument name." There, type "silver." Then, in the tool bar at the top of the silver chart, click on the icon for volume information.

    Kitco is also good, but, AFAICT, does not provide volume information.

    -- Paul D. Bain
    paulbain@pobox.com

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  127. LIESman is the biggest douchebag Fed shill on television. He is to be ridiculed and ignored.

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  128. Bullish sentiment enthusiasm is not lost on me ,but drawing All the trendlines and looking at places where lines converge,in the chart the way I draw them (think spider web)
    I see the chart showing a perfectly acceptable (if not desirable) pullback to the 35 area...with my most precise target around 34.75
    Yes,strong support at 36.50,and 36.25....and more at 35.50 and 35.....but I can see the convergence of many lines (median lines,pitchfork stuff,etc) converging at 34.75
    Right now that price seems like such a far distance away,with bullish sentiment as it is...but look at past corrections. bullish energy was strong a month ago as well . theres nothing wrong with seeing a gradual bottom rising from 32.75 to 33.75 and now 34.75
    In my mind,it helps me to think of the price as being where its last bottom was,not as being where the top is..... if that makes any sense.
    Its not the high top that I want to be happy with ,its the rising bottom I want to feel good about,and anticipate where the next bottom might develop,if the wave pattern continues. That price point is 34.75

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  129. EA,

    It is admittedly exciting to make money on PMs while some semblance of order remains intact in our society. But don't forget that PMs are still, in the end, just disaster insurance. I don't think anyone on this site will be dancing in the streets when Phase 3 starts, because it will coincide with external events none of us should be hoping for. It will be a little worse than "unfortunate" if fellow citzens end up starving to death because of monetary policy

    P.S. - this is an attempt at a polite rebuttal. I hope I can expect the same in return if you decide to provide one

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  130. If one can use toilet papers to pay for my debts, I can't think of why he won't want to borrow more?

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  131. Turd-

    Thanks for the ORD explaination...that's one of the reasons I read your blog (the other has to do with Venezuelan hookers and blow, but that's another story).

    But did you have to make an announcement about the levels to watch, now you have Blythe all riled up and the monkeys are restless. Couldn't you tell us in code or something, maybe a secret decoder ring?

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  132. INFORMAL SURVEY: under the assumption that there's a reasonable chance that the market tanks and pulls our PMs down with it, what do you all believe will be our new support?

    Are we talking 34 and 1385 range, or 28 and 1320? Or worse?

    The last 2 weeks have been consumed with trying to guage the risk/reward of keeping 50% powder dry waiting for the MOAC versus getting in now should we run to 1600.

    PS - I love this place.

    PPS - I'm 80% physical and long long looooong there [is what she said?!]

    ReplyDelete
  133. EA - what i mean by we can't accumulate debt past 200% GDP is that noone, not even the FED, will buy debt from our government by the time we get there, and at that point USGovt won't be able to pay interest on the debt and will default. But I doubt it gets to that point... my guess is that the debt is a sigmoid curve and we are on the upward acceleration phase, or perhaps in the middle of the sigmoid. our rate of debt increase will start to have a deceleration as it becomes harder to sell treasuries to finance those ridiculous government budgets, and ultimately as we reach the asymptotic right side of the sigmoid debt curve, the market will dictate that spending policy changes, because the gov't just won't be able to get any more money.

    ReplyDelete
  134. @ My...Testes

    Here's a pretty sobering article from ZH re Social Security (link below).

    I'm curious as to why you think "there is no way the US could accumulate debt beyond 200% GDP."

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/social-security-hits-60?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

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  135. Thank you Turd and the rest. Learn something every day on this site.

    SK

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  136. thomas: you are a mindreader. exactly the thoughts I was hoping to read. cheers!


    [my captcha is "comit" -- a sign from the universe?]

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  137. Dave,

    I do sometimes think that housing here is overpriced but when I compare property values in Toronto to Singapore, Hong kong, Tokyo, London, Madrid, New York, Beirut, Paris, and other world class cities, Toronto is still a relative steal. Prices may appear high however property has appreciated at a relatively modest pace unlike the US pre 08 where some regions experience 2-300% property appreciation over a few years. Traditionally in Canada property has doubled in every 13 years which is modest growth in comparisson. as far as the 35% of income is concerned, that figure has been the case since at least the 70's.

    I certainly agree that our manufacturing sector is tied closely to the USA and it will need to evolve, become more competitive, seek new markets or migrate the educated workforce to new sectors which many companies are already doing. Toronto is now a leading city in pharmaceuticals by building a science labs in the downtown core. Waterloo's perimiter Institute has attracted the likes of Stephen Hawkings. World class research is being conducted in Ontario. I just point this out as our economy is slowly moving from a manufacturing based economy.

    I don't think it's rosy- change never is, however I also feel Canada is in a tremendously different position compared to some countries.

    Natural resources have and will continue to somewhat shelter Canada. Immigration (especially chineese bringing huge capital) will continue to lift the economy and sustain housing much like how Saudi Arabia's investments in Lebanon have caused pricing to quadruple in the last 2-3 years.

    I think like others that we are seing a slow decline of the USD and that impact will slowly affect our manufacturing sector which force us to become more competitive.

    Our dollar just hit a new high against the USD. Bad for manufacturing, but great for my business as I buy some product in the USA and some product elsewhere using US dollars.

    Things may get worse, but we have a much greater ability to cope than other countries.

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  138. @ Mr Harbl

    Please reconsider your thoughts. For the perception in which you argue about social security being solvent is the same one that has kept the ponzi scheme running for all this time.

    Even if you wanted to try to make any arguments about social security being solvent (which it is not... current payments by people pay current obligations to "retirees", there is no trust fund that has stored wealth, the government used your money, I ask you to acknowledge the demographic problem. When social security was implemented, there was somewhere around 15:1 payees to retirees... something like in 10 years it is forecasted to be ~3:1.

    Take a hint about the fixed distribution in social security (no rise for rising costs) as a signal that this is not a vehicle you can rely on.

    I am sorry that this may be new news to you, however it is important to understand. True understanding of this concept leads to the inevitable conclusion that while our "national debt" is 14 trillion and change (that change could go a lot of places), our obligations make this total look pathetic.

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  139. I dont think that by taxing the rich would solve the problem.

    Havent seen the video though.

    The rich HAVE the resources to find loopholes on current legislation and pay even less taxes than before, or not pay at all.

    The solution is raise saving interest rates, lower borrower interest rates, shrink the government, stop printing money and most importantly, lower taxes and create tax breaks for new companies to settle in the US.
    That'll make the economy GROW, not using some stupid gimmick.. those numbers are BS, and everybody and the dog knows it.

    ReplyDelete
  140. "Mmmm, cake...."

    Pick - I am going with of his own volition. I wear a silver hat but it isn't too tight.

    Irene - hard to keep an even keel sometimes, isn't it. Glad to be of service.

    JWMJR - as we speak.

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  141. An absolute WALL at 37.70.

    But the wall was at 37.80 yesterday. Hmmm

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  142. My.Harbl.Testes..I guess 30 some odd years in the research business extends my thinking beyond most. Phase 3 is coming whether you believe it or not, as well as default and third world status. There will be the elite and the poor..very poor...dead poor.

    ReplyDelete
  143. Geezus, what is going on with that Netdania 1 min chart?

    It looks like it does when Globex closes from 5:15 - 6pm

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  144. The non-stop buying into silver is really impressive the more you watch the bounceback after a beat down.
    Anyone care to guess what the price of Au and Ag were left to supply and demand issue's only and not the EE.
    I'm guessing $2400 Au and $85 Ag.
    I have absolutely nothing to base that on, just a guess.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    I think that huge $200 trillion debt might actually be small. I don't think they would ever admit to anything close to that obviously, but I would be willing to bet if you took ALL of the debt obligations that are stretched wayyyy out in time that the number would be enormous if they could somehow be called due. Obviously they can't but ALL the debt (including state and municipal) would be sickening. I'm talking about buildings they own/or lease, equipment, supplies, labor contracts, pensions and medical benefits etc. I'm talking total Gov. debt, not "just" the $14.3 trillion and the entitlements and big social programs.

    I think I read Jim Sinclair (and elsewhere) mention some OMG! number of $4 Quadrillion of "all" paper debts of all types. (public, private, banks, citizens. I'm not disagreeing with the ongoing conversation above one way or another but I dread the number is absolutely way bigger and astronomical.
    And I didn't even mention the Fed. documents that were released yesterday showing any Global debt from 2008 when we helped bail EVERYONE out.(Except the U.S. citizen)
    Libya (bank) actually got over $10 Billion dollars! WTF!


    On second thought, maybe I should revise my guess to $5000 Au and $250 Ag given my debt guess.

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  145. @ Wine Guy

    Great comment. And why do the Canadian banks own a bunch of US banks? The tellers at TD looked at me funny when I asked them about the RE risk it posed to their own bank. They had no clue as to what they are invested in.

    Bay of Pigs

    ps Look at gold/silver come back. Wow. This isn't anything like 2000-2008, I can tell you that. Major breakout next week?

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  146. I guess volume completely dried up is the answer to my question?

    Xty - Phew, good to hear. MKU too unrealistic in his case

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  147. Relevant to the article, and those disputing it, is that fiscal debt is distinct from liabilities, obligations and mandatory spending. It's true that the fiscal debt is way less than 200% of GDP, but obligations are probably around 4x the GDP (by the reckoning of the former comptroller of the United States).

    However, Japan is still able to find bond buyers and they are at 200% of GDP (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_by_public_debt).

    On another note, I pulled up the Netdania chart and it gave me silver in AUD and I almost had a heart attack. That is not a very nice April Fool's joke.

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  148. thomas, magis - I say none of the above. Not going below 36 again, maybe not even 37. Long time no see.

    All you Canadians out there - sshhh - don't let them catch on to our plan for world domination, first through the entertainment industry, then through the banks.

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  149. @ Xaritas

    Japan finds their buyers at home. What do they call them? Mrs. Watanabes, I think.

    Big difference.

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  150. Turd...the dollar is indeed getting flushed right now.
    I've been watching it also. No suprise crude keeps rising.

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  151. I'm all for a responsible, small government. As a friend told me years ago, I don't mind paying taxes as long as the govt makes me proud of the way they spend it. This government is certainly not doing that.

    On that note, I'm gonna go help my brother get his house ready for sale, and hope SLW has a gap up on monday morning.

    btw, thanks to whomever initially provided the revett recommendation, and all those who kept talking about it - i got in on monday and am going to let it ride for the long haul.

    Happy weekend, GLTA

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  152. Xty -- psychology plays such a huge role, don't you think? You don't foresee a drop below 36 again? (devil's advocate)

    The strength of buying (ht: DarkPurpleHaze) has really quieted my doubts the past week or two, but I still have a healthy fear of the EE and the panic they could cause with their freebie FRNs...

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  153. The post-1pm vol (or lack thereof) is kind of funny. Rangebound 37.60-.70.

    I think the big boys have their positions and are holding through the weekend now. Maybe we get another low vol raid before Globex closes tonight? Dunno. but whatever it is, it will be noise level.

    Silver bulls defended 37 very nicely today and all week.

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  154. A dozen bounces over 37.70 and instant pushback.

    Ridiculous. Where is the CFTC you bunch of crooks.

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  155. Pick- I call it the hour of the squiggles. But oddly, during that time between 5:15 and 6:00 when it usually just oscillates tightly between two prices, lately it has moved during that time. Should not happen. I always smell a rat when this occurs - some sort of collusion going on - or maybe we are just used to much bigger price swings now.

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  156. I think I wannna build a position in the Tinka that goldsilvergold keeps harping about. Also some of that Revett that guys here keep talking about.

    I think when gold finally goes over $1444, the HUI is going to be very happy.

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  157. @Jack
    looks like they're prepping a 2nd attack (judging by those bounces)

    Hope it's nothing, but it looks WAAY to manipulated...

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  158. Finally dipped my toes in...other than holding a bit of physical and lots of SLW and AXU...picked up some weekly 38 calls on SLV this am...

    Bill

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  159. magis00:

    Xty said...
    thomas, magis - I say none of the above. Not going below 36 again, maybe not even 37. Long time no see.


    April 1, 2011 1:43 PM

    magis00 said...
    Xty -- psychology plays such a huge role, don't you think? You don't foresee a drop below 36 again? (devil's advocate)

    April 1, 2011 1:49 PM

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  160. Jobs. Jobs. Jobs. Really???

    Here are three paragraphs from today’s daily “lunch with Dave” report from Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg...

    I have no doubt that the commentary from most research departments will be
    supremely bullish. And there is no sense quibbling with the veracity of the data —
    employment has improved, it is a question mark as to whether it will continue to
    improve going forward. Suffice it to say that the improvement is not sufficient as
    of yet to generate organic income growth, primarily for the two reasons cited
    above, and at a time when fiscal policy is swinging from stimulus to restraint, all
    I see are clouds on the horizon as far as the outlook for consumer discretionary
    spending is concerned.

    Moreover, there is a very long row to hoe for the labour market — let’s not forget
    that it is still digging itself out of a very deep hole. For example, at 130.738
    million, payrolls are actually lower now than they were in January 2000. Think
    about that for a second — because over this 11 year period of flat employment,
    the population has risen nearly 30 million. The level of payrolls is also much
    closer to the bottom than it is to the peak ― in fact, here we are heading into
    year number three of the expansion and only 17% of the job losses have been
    recouped. (On average, 21 months after a recession ends, total nonfarm
    payrolls recover 207% of the jobs lost from the recession. There was one
    exception and that was the 2001 recession, where payrolls didn’t reach the
    bottom until 21 months after the recession ended in November 2001).

    At this stage of the cycle, what is “normal” is that we are at a new all-time high
    on employment! But payrolls are actually 7.25 million shy of where they were
    when the recession began, so the fact that they have rebounded 1.5 million
    from the lows is, in the overall scheme of things, really nothing to write home
    about. Here we are, just three months away from closing the books on the
    second year of a statistical stimulus-led recovery, and employment is still much
    closer to the trough than to the peak. If we can luck out and have the business
    cycle die and escape a recession at some point and continue along the path of
    200k payroll gains month in and month out, then we can look forward to the
    spring of 2014 before all the losses from the Great Recession are fully reversed.
    In other words, let’s hold off on the cheerleading and take umbrage in the fact
    that the labour market, while on the mend, is still a very sick puppy.

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  161. What did Turd (and I) discuss above about people showing up and trying to shake out the longs - and to ignore them? Asking about lows when Turd has clearly posted his expectations? Talk about psychology.

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  162. @Rorshach:

    100% That's what the whole currency war is all about, the race to the bottom! (in the meantime, all commodities go up up up ;) )

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  163. Great post Turd. Trader Dan wrote a great today too on the Games the Fed Boyz play:
    http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/04/federal-reserve-confusion-i-dont-think.html

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  164. I posted earlier about Libya getting $10 billion. I was wrong. It was $28 Billion!!!
    Just read that on the very top/center at ZH.

    If this dollar dump continues into the resumption of trading on Sunday night, the market will explode on Monday morning for PM's and crude.

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  165. new thread
    (maybe the trolls won't follow us there :)

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  166. Ouch - hurts to be miscategorized. I'm a believer, baby!

    Simply trying to talk in 6 month categories rather than 6 minute ones. I get the impression that Turd would be fine with open discussion of it. Not here to "shake out longs" -- hell, I couldn't even pull off a short trade if I tried.

    There are a lot of wise and insightful posters and thinkers whose wisdom I'd like to learn from as regards various contemporary issues(QE3 or not, the POSX drop and bounces, crude & MENA ...)

    There's a lot going on, and I only wanted to hear the thoughts of you (and others) who aren't anxious about a big correction.

    1,000 apologies for rankling..

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  167. Barry Ritholtz posted a damn good Calvin and Hobbes today about the economy...good for a laugh even if you're not a fan of the strip, which I'm not usually:

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/corporate_america_explained_by_calvin_and_hobbes.jpg

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  168. what happened to my post got erased trying to send it...crap.... anyway. responding to Magis00

    the short answer ,I think charting has been accurate technical analysis in market for the most part. elliott wave still works, fibonnacci still works....but the biggest power that moves these totally rigged markets is the US Government/FED/JPM whatever you want to call the monster in control. I think they are still in control....and it means the price moves because they make it move or they allow it to move, and they stop it when they want to and paint the charts as they like ,etc.... My charting has showed me target bottoms of 30-29 area silver and 1270-1300 gold.

    and the summer doldrum season is approaching.
    My gut feeling is telling me that "sell in may and go away" might be on tap this season. like last year.
    Its all a best guess.

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  169. Thanks thomas for sharing your thoughts. "Best guesses" is precisely what I was hoping to get - as opposed to getting reamed by xty and called a troll by my beloved TF ... which were not things I was hoping to get.

    I (have no idea why I) think we'll be safe to ride the trend upward into April, but I suppose I have that nagging concern that the highly-subject-to-the-whims-of-TPTB spot price of Ag and Au will get jerked waaaay back at some point, too. Been a very sweet ride up from 28, which was in itself a pretty large correction. They happen.

    Anyway, in the relative calm of an end of thread post I submit my concerns about the ever-escalating price. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

    Xty & Señor Turd: no love lost, I hope.

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  170. Ive tried 3 times to send thoughtful posts ,that took me 15 minutes to type and they keep getting glitched and erased. I give up for today.

    Its very wise to be cautious at these price levels in silver and gold. summer doldrums is approaching. the set up looks like time soon for a bigger correction. it will be a good test to see what powers prevail...the buyers(think china) or the JPM manipulation.

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  171. @ Paulbain

    Thanks for the volume link... perfect!

    Helps to see what it costs Blythe to hit the market and keep my miners flat (or worse)... lol!

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  172. I wonder if thats the reason copper jumped so high , as a cheaper substitue for silver, If so I think I missed the boat on that one.

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  173. I was referring to the industrial uses of silver

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  174. Titus Andronicus said...

    "To me it seems that gold is the focus of the suppression now."

    I've been noticing this for awhile, I think they are starting to see that messing with silver is more and more a losing proposition & a waste of their resources, while gold is a more high-profilen index of currency strength, which Central Bankers are trying hardest to preserve. They are facing serious headwinds in both metals but with silver they have already lost the war.

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  175. eToro is the #1 forex trading platform for novice and professional traders.

    ReplyDelete