Saturday, April 23, 2011

For Your Viewing Pleasure

The Wicked Witch and her trusty sidekick, Ruprecht, have made another feature film. Please pay close attention to their plan and the price targets they mention.

I'll have more late tomorrow evening, once we see how things are going on the Globex.
Happy Easter!! TF


  1. Hahahahahahahahahaha!
    The wicked witch works for Turd!!!!
    I love it.
    2 thumbs up!

  2. Turd,
    Funny vid. Are these price targets based on a repeat of what happened in Feb?

  3. Turd: the tricks with forcing some longs to rollover (including three hacking days) - * is understandable. Then Silver rebounds but WHY it's supposed to go to lower afterwards (after it reaches 50-52) to reach its bottom around mid may ?

  4. Freaking. Priceless just pricelesss lol, thanks Turd.

  5. "Is it true about the anaconda?"

    OMG LOL! I spit Heineken on my keyboard!

    All kinds of awesome TF.

  6. repost

    Chapman's interview regarding silver short squeeze.

    Also good article on Daily Bell

  7. The video is incredibly smart. It says a lot about the standard pattern we observe: people making money THROUGH big, public institutions that eventually resort to taxpayer money (WHO do you will pay for the losses they've made - Chapman estimates start from $120 billion). So it's about insiders. Without them Ted Butler could investigate the issue for next 20 years. I can't believe WB group was so accurate without any insider knowledge. Ironically, it can be Morgue executives who'll make the most money and who started the whole campaign - as long as it leads to free (taxpayer) money it will continue (they will be bailed out, but first some individuals will make TONS of money and go to Venezuela, uncaught - like video suggests). Doesn't matter if it's Greece, Ireland or some naked shorts - just observe the pattern (poor taxpayer -> rich invisible).

  8. Turd:

    Funny! And fascinating!! I am all cash right now so this week will be a nail biter for me. A beat down to 45.50, you say? Then rebounding to maybe 70 by late JUN? Hooooweee! Fasten your seatbelts!

    @Phantom: Thanks very much for re-posting that link to the CSF explanation. I needed to see that again!

    Lots to think about... :0

  9. @Curb

    I didn't have a beer at the time or I would have also!

  10. Another great video...Please comment on Martin Armstrong's lastest missive that he believes that the next big move in precious metals will not happen until the next wave and not this current wave

  11. Turd,
    No matter what she bribes you with, don't go to Venezuela with her - she's not worth it.

    And...Why not Argentina? From the Latin "Argentum" which means....wait for it....SILVER!

  12. Turd, if you think Comex wiil default and JPM also, does any investment in AGQ, SLV, AGQ, UGL ETf´s have enormous risks ? How do you follow this huge movement in Silver ? What financial instruments do you invest ? Miner stocks ?

  13. Unfortunately cant see it, youtube blocked where I'm sitting :(
    Would love to read the subtitles though...

  14. Neo
    Physical for the wealth you want guaranteed. Stocks and ETFs to make more fiat to purchase more physical
    I am trading AGQ.

  15. THE ANACONDA.LOL. I've never seen it,but I heard it hit the floor once:}

  16. Turd, interesting choice of targets. A few dollars up and down - a reasonably orderly trading. What do you think though of a CSF in the coming few weeks, something Dan detailed on your request back in February:

    The current exponential spike appears to be due to short covering, not just heavy buying by BoS (and public increasingly going for physical one should add):

    Do you think there is a chance of limit-up moves of, say, $5 a day after passing the psychological $50 mark? One would think the massive shorts must do something at $50-60, first perhaps try to cover then probably default at $70-80. Some estimate JPM and HSBC are offside by $150B or so at $60 silver.

    So, a commercial signal failure in silver in May?


  17. Great vid. So you're saying you're long? Watch out for those BM fangs!

  18. Would I be correct to assume that with the giant short position in silver and due to the total physical shortage, it is way more difficult for them to control silver versus gold? Since the Central Banks do control the big physical quantities of gold. Therefore, physical silver has got to run much faster than the gold.

  19. Dr Jerome, if Comex and JPM defaults, AGQ =0. It´s a derivate Comex Future Contracts manage by JPM. So maybe Miner´s ETF or Miner´s Stocks maybe an alternative investment to follow the silver uptend, no ?

  20. Hilarious as always. Two thumbs up!!

  21. Dr. Jerome, I completely agree says, it's all about the physical. I can't believe I am buying something so rare for so cheap. The more research I do on worldwide above ground and in ground silver reserves, the more I just want to accumulate as much cheap physical as possible.

    I have read Ruppert, Kunstler, etc, about peak oil...I get that. But peak silver is far more evident to me than peak oil.

    Silver will take its price pattern from Platinum, which was cheaper than Palladium not too long ago.

    ...I am amazed that so many of the financial "geniuses" out there on ZH etc., don't have a clue about the once in a lifetime GIFT we have to buy so cheap.

  22. China selling last of US Dollar holdings this week. No longer holding any US Treasurys.

    This scenario is very possible and makes my head spin thinking about it.

  23. Where do you come up with this stuff, Turd. Quite the imagination you've got. This vid definitely takes the cake. Peace out!

  24. Happy Easter to you and family TF!

  25. Turd,

    You know there are lots of people following you now. There are quite a few "new" enlightened turdlings that haven't seen the big dips.

    Let them know to be cautious.

    I hope you get where i'm coming from.

    I've seen too many gut-wrenching corrections in silver over the last 8 years or so.

    This time may be different, but maybe not.

  26. Murphy The gold market is easier to control due to very large size compared to the tiny silver market.Silver also seems to have a more acute shortage compared to gold

  27. ROFLMAO. So Turd, Blythe Baby's got some back, huh?

  28. Neo,
    I am also long in Tinka (TKRFF) a miner in Peru. Several readers have referenced an article on miners. They might be the better investment long term.
    Why miners are not performing

    It is the 2nd article down.
    I agree that AGQ or SLV could = zero at some point. I am trying to stay nimble, using call options or bull put spreads. Not much invested here.

  29. Murphy - thanks for the Daily Bell article. It led me to this concise article:

    Lost decade? We've already had one

    Discusses the rigged data used to measure the GDP. I'm beginning to believe that all the math is false when it comes to the economy these days.

  30. AC_Doctor, are you serious with that post? Such a load of utter BS. Some guy, heard from his son, who overheard from some other guy while he was installing flooring, that the U.S. just sold all the country's assets to China this weekend? Oh brother. I can't believe I wasted 5 mins of my life reading that link.

  31. LUMPY SHORTS so true I,ve had, as all here have had hefty losses, the market is a fickle mistress. Never get too cocky you,ll get your fingers burned.Silver is one of the most volatile markets.The trend is your friend,but short term movements can be swift and forceful.There is a saying used by ultralite pilots- hanggliders NEVER FLY HIGHER THAN YOUR WILLING TO FALL.

  32. Beware misinformation and shills...

    ...and keep your eye on the Turd. It'll be nice one of these days when bullshit has its own thread.

    Ol' Michael
    "...paper is paper..."

  33. Turd -

    Count me as another who's interested in your thoughts about the best way to play this move. My inclination was to buy more AGQ, but is the COMEX situation really potentially so bad that its underlying options/derivatives could get wiped out? Would we have some kind of early warning to liquidate our AGQ shares?

    I like PSLV, but am concerned about Sprott doing a second offering that dramatically reduces the current huge premium. I bought most of my shares before the premium got so big, and have been reluctant to add more at these levels.

  34. the anaconda... to damn funny.. but she said she didn't know what he was talking about.. hmmm.. lol.

  35. If Turd is predicting no COMEX failure this time around, why wouldn't you be fine to continue playing AGQ until the next delivery month?

    When the time comes that people feel that a COMEX failure is iminent, why not switch from playing AGQ to ZSL?

    Am I missing something?

  36. I hope all the good info re food, canning, preparedness, mining companies, pm dealers, constitution, world events can be consolidated into Turd's new site. I know my poor head is swimming and so much has been posted that should not be lost/forgotten. Happy Easter/Spring post equinox. This is one of if not the best sites on the web. Thanks Mr. Turd and all Turdites.

  37. Ridiculous. The COMEX does not default. It is JPM and HSBC etc WHO OWN THE FED that run the risk of default. They will not default either. They will turn on the presses and settle in confetti. Believe what you want.
    I will be extremely shocked to see the silver mkt play out as that vid says. Good luck.

  38. Came across this the other day. Some might find the history interesting

  39. Atlee, what do you see in next short future (till end june) ?

  40. Atlee, default failure to deliver is that what we are talking about,

  41. Atlee, thank you for your input. How do you expect the next week to play out? I'm trying to settle on a gameplan at the moment, so all input is very welcome!

  42. #1. The morgue has lost control of the silver mkt. They are no longer running it.

    #2. Fed speak has no credibility with those who are.

    #3. Option expiration; well if they have lost control of the silever mkt, then that is not going to be a factor.

    #4. Who is running the mkt? Big money with unlimited resources. China? foreign multi billionaires who realize under current circumstances it IS possible to corner the mkt and extract several tons of flesh from the morgue/fed? I dont know but it is no longer Blythe. If it were and they had unlimited fire power, we would not be at these levels. period.

    #5. If we get the kind of pullback discussed above, then I am dead wrong and blythe is still in control and everybody gets yet another chance to lesiurely BTFD. If that happens I will change my avatar to Lesiure Suit Larry.

  43. @Johnny La Rue

    Johnny, I know quite a few people here don't want to hear anything the least bit negative.

    I love your analogy.

  44. I see a mkt that continues to run not letting the shorts up. Dan says no evidence of short covering. That is forking expolsive news in the current configuration of this mkt. There will be intra day hair raising pullbacks fast and furious. Your chance to buy a deep correction may come when the future contract roll into the nxt delivery month. I see 60 to 70 by june

  45. It seems as though every week I move further and further out on the edge of my seat. I dont know how much more room I have before I fall off, but I do know watching all of this high drama play out is much better than a movie in my opinion.

  46. atLEE I watched the video again 4th time now. I don't have conviction either way I,ll defer to your experience.I hate lesure suits Luv the bones though, seen em three times, Keith's the man.

  47. Interesting possibility

    Here is the part of a possible way to push down the price

    "A far different way to interpret the decline in lease rates is the opposite of the short squeeze; call it the “silver crater." The long silver investors currently assume that dealers are actually short the physical metal and do indeed have trouble filling standing deliveries. Because of this, the dealers try to lease as much physical as possible but the ensuing backwardation tips the entire metals complex off to the short squeeze. Investors pile into the long side of the trade and the price shoots far higher.

    What if that did actually happen but the dealers were able to lease more than enough silver to cover their short futures positions? Since there is now more than enough available silver, lease rates would fall and normalize. While the original supply imbalance has already been telegraphed to the markets, suppose that the dealers decided to take advantage of the rise in prices by delivering only small amounts of silver through most of the month of March. This would entice more and more long investors and keep the price rising right to the end of the month."

    Gotta go time for Saturday night drinks and dinner

  48. @Atlee... I love leisure suits. At least the ones worn by Larry! That game rocked my world back in 1987. ;-)

  49. Turd, the anaconda was priceless. , Does she call you poops or poopie?

  50. Dont know if anyone has caught wind of this, but it's a must read (it was a couple of week back, been meaning to post)...

    sold all my silver positions friday, ready to load the boat with AGQ

  51. Agree with you Atlee - The video is good fun, but I also think things have moved out of the hands of the Comex / Morgue. I don't think last week was part of their master plan.

    Staying long AGQ and just moving the stops up every day . . .

  52. My Kitcomobile edition show POSX at 76.79? What up wwith that?

  53. @ Johnnny Larue

    Yea Baby!!

    @ JPaagu et al.

    Silver is the achilles heel of the financial system. You would have to be deaf dumb and blind not to sense the change in the character of the silver mkt. To expect that it can be traded like it was before is wrong. We are truly in the tall grass and you are going to have to not look down, be nimble and be well capitalized if you are going to trade or position in AGQ or any leveraged silver vehicle. If you are not then stay out. Buy physical.
    Props and respect and love to TURD. It is freaking hard to call bottoms. It is 100 times as hard to call tops and corrections and if you can do both consisitently, then you are a billionaire by now.

  54. When Is the time to buy? What Price?

  55. @ atlee

    You said "There will be intra day hair raising pullbacks fast and furious..."

    Turd is forecasting a pullback to maybe 45.50 That's only a dollar or so below last week's close.

    So, why do you think you and he are so far apart on this week's action? Couldn't one of those "hair raising pullbacks" easily be $1.00 or more?

    Help me here.

  56. My plan is to set a stop loss below a likely resistance point - like one 20% or so below current spot. Get out if it reaches the stop, take profits and then follow it a bit and buy back in.

    What would be a good stop loss number?? Any suggestions would be appreciated.

  57. StanR - I don't set one single stop. I used to do that, but didn't like being all in or all out, especially from getting stopped out by a quick intraday move with a bounceback.

    I currently have my total position broken into about 8 different stops. The first one is pretty tight (just below prior day interday low or something like that) and then it steps down progressively from there.

    Currently a move to $304 or below on AGQ would liquidate about 1/3rd of my total position, though I may tighten that up further once I see how Asia looks tomorrow night.

  58. SO, the Wicked Witch likes Turd but has the hots for Venezuelan hookers also? That girl will do anything?

    Btw I like your price forecasts.. somehow I too am beginning to think that by the end of the year triple digit silver is more likely than double digit.

  59. "JPAagau said...
    StanR - I don't set one single stop. I used to do that, but didn't like being all in or all out, especially from getting stopped out by a quick intraday move with a bounceback.

    I currently have my total position broken into about 8 different stops. The first one is pretty tight (just below prior day interday low or something like that) and then it steps down progressively from there.

    Currently a move to $304 or below on AGQ would liquidate about 1/3rd of my total position, though I may tighten that up further once I see how Asia looks tomorrow night."

    Not wanting to bash on you, but that is exactly the behavior that creates volatility. Because you buy into strength and sell on weakness your profits are limited and you have to leverage up to maximize them. This added liquidity exacerbates the volatility you create.

    And this is exactly the kind of asocial behavior that is synonymous with our society today. Which also makes manipulation that much easier, because TBTP know perfectly well that at a certain point, all you chickens will run.

  60. Markus - Asocial? It's just trading and a source of funds to buy more physical, retire debt, etc.. My physical is a different story and will not be sold in the foreseeable future, just swapped for gold at the right ratio.

    Everyone has to come up with a style that they are comfortable with. I haven't sold anything in the last two weeks while continuing to protect my downside, and made a lot of money last week by not trying to call a top and "sell into strength".

  61. Fred's right. 45.50 is 1.22 less than my KITCO ticker stopped at THU. That's not much, easily an intraday dip. My intention is to go long a few SLV JUL 50's first thing MON AM. That's in case Blythe's dip doesn't materialize. I'll keep the rest of my cash queued up to BTFD. If my gut doesn't think it's coming, I'll go in with both feet.

    I'm inclined to agree with Atlee, the buyers are driving the market now, the dips will be shallow and short as we push higher. CSF, maybe. Wouldn't rule it out.

    The wild card, if you will, is the FEDSPIN this week. If it manages to rally the dollar, that will also be brief, but the stupid algos may give us a BTFD opportunity on it. If there is a bull trap, it will be in the dollar, not in silver. Hard to imagine anyone would fall into it, though.

    Gonna be an interesting week!

    Happy to be in the company of some sharp minds here. Afrum, I know you have already spoken, but I would love to hear your take on things again.

  62. Assuming Turd's prediction is true here...can someone suggest the best way to leverage $ 10,000 to get the biggest gain? SLV options ( kinda scared slv will default)....AGQ options? Or just AGQ on margin? My thoughts are to take advantage of these price swings if they happen this way with some options....then roll it all into physical later in the summer...or most at least. If so, what would be best options and months to use...May or June. Thanks.

  63. Hi atlee,

    Actually, you and the video don't seem really that far off from each other as you both end up saying silver will be around $70 by June.

    "I see 60 to 70 by june"

    Turd says in the video $67-$70 by June.

    And you both say it's going to be a rollercoaster - so isn't it more the specific road that you disagree on?

    (I'm not a gamblin' gal so I'm not really in this game. I've got my pms and my silver stocks like SLW and EXK.)

    Anyway, good luck with your trading.

  64. Atlee,

    Very much appreciate your comments on AGQ. I agree with you that they WILL kick the silver can further down the road. I suspect The Morgue having their "expedited" vault storage is the REAL smoke and mirrors.

    My 401k needs a boost. I finally got a TRUE self-directed account and want to have a little AGQ in it.

    I also surrendered my annuity. It was going nowhere with the bullshit options they provide. THAT is going to purchase physical as soon as the check clears. I tried to get the funds wired to my bank, followed all the instructions to the letter, even included a deposit slip....yet Fidelity decided that since I had no "bank on record" that the "safest" thing to do was mail me a check. Yeah right.

  65. Where is DPH?
    Did the MIB haul him away...? =/

  66. And now, for a little light entertainment courtesy of the Financial Times, let us all listen to the latest conspiracy theories about silver!

    An excerpt from:
    Silver surge prompts conspiracy theorists

    Before that, the last time the [gold/silver] ratio was below 40 was in the early 1980s, following the most notorious silver market squeeze – that of William Herbert Hunt and Nelson Bunker Hunt, two billionaire oil baron brothers.

    Is something similar happening today?

    The silver market is never short of a wild rumour. The difference this time, though, is that the conspiracy theories are being seriously considered by senior figures in the industry.

    As one senior banker puts it: “I just do think it has the smell of somebody with a pretty significant buying programme … Silver is the sort of market that every decade attracts someone.”

    The reason why the conspiracy theories have taken hold is because few traders or analysts can see a convincing reason for silver’s astonishing rise. According to data from consultancy GFMS, the silver market was in a surplus of 178m ounces last year.

    Crucially, of course, that surplus was mopped up by investors. But visible investor positioning is hardly overwhelmingly positive – indeed, last week, even as silver prices rose, investors cut their bullish positions in the US futures market by 8.4 per cent.

    Hence the conspiracy theories. Some of the whispers making the rounds in dealing rooms in London and Zurich include:

    • A Russian billionaire with an eye for silver has been discreetly buying (for some reason Russia seems to be the most popular location of this putative billionaire – he or she could also be Middle Eastern or perhaps East Asian).

    • There has been a secretive silver buying programme by the People’s Bank of China or some other central bank (but China is the favourite).

    • Chinese traders are using silver imports as collateral to obtain credit in a similar way to copper – thus vastly inflating the country’s silver demand.

    It is impossible to say if there is even a grain of truth in any of these tales. While some traders are taking them seriously, others believe the rise in prices is perfectly well explained by very strong, inelastic industrial demand plus extremely high retail demand in the US, India and China.

  67. @ Marcus
    I understand and appreciate your feelings.

    Please count to ten before you post. Some of us are not as sophisticated and learned as others. Please be patient. We are a small community in the grand scheme of things, let's help one another--even the novice and unsophisticated.

    The best of good fortune to you and all.


  68. @Turd-
    Please don't tell me that THE Turd is cozy with THE BM?
    If so, I'd have to flush you both down the Fed toilet.
    So far, you looked like you were not giving BM a way out.
    I like that idea.

    I will not worship the JPMorgue.

    OTOH, I do appreciate the endless QE printing.

    I can ride out a temporary dip which I will buy hard on.

    (Word verify- CULT-RID ... seriously)

  69. Rob

    I wouldn't touch MAY calls now, too late for that. I'm buying JUL, MAYBE some JUN.

    SLV will crash and burn someday, but I am still betting it will be a little while. Plenty of money still pouring into it. Be watchful though. Do ur own DD.

  70. Turd- whats your call for silver's May close?
    Silverdoctors is giving away a free silver eagle for the best prediction- if the dollar's still around by then that is! Let's hear your call!

  71. @pbfurn - you are a welcome breath of tolerance.

    I was going to post a reply to Marcus but then I counted to ten (losing count twice) and then my Alzheimer's kicked in and I forgot why I was posting in the first place.

    @Eric the One - I have some questions for you about collectible coins but I'll ask them in private, so if you are lurking... send me an email at: -


  72. @Fred

    Our differences are that I think that it all happens in the course of the daily trading session. And that type of action becomes normal. In the past it was a "leisurely" correction lastin 3 to 10 days. Lots of time to think. Lots of time to build confidence and use good money management techniques etc. Here is an example: Not saying this is how it is to happen.
    In Asia the the mkt is currently 47.76. So lets say monday morning we trade promptly to 48.25. Then in the course of 30 minutes we trade down to 45.70. An hour later we are back to 48 and by 1:25 we are $49.17. Tuesday we go through $50. Then repeat at but at higher levels.
    Yea, we are in agreement as to ultimately where we go. But not on how we get there. I say it gets very disorderly. That means it is going to take true commitiment to step into the shit storm and buy when we are down $2.50 or more in half an hour. It could go down another $2 after a 55 cent uptick. That is another thing; have you noticed that we often jump in 10 or more cent increments? I mean 10 cent ticks?

    So our difference is in velocity

  73. If there is anyone, especially any silver newbies, here who has not read Michael Maloney's Guide to Investing in Gold and Silver, RUN, do not walk to get a copy and read it immediately. I know he looks like a 1980's time share salesman in his videos and I probably wouldn't like him if I met him, but the book has all the information you need to have in your head every day in this market. Get it, read it, read it again and again!

    With the exception of a Commercial Signal Failure (CSF), and Blythe & Rupprecht's private conversations, every scenario we are discussing here is covered. This train is gathering speed very quickly and you need to understand what is driving it.

    Sorry if I sound preachy. I'm not. I just know there are some new readers out there who may not have the background knowledge to understand all that is going on right now.

  74. @Irene

    Yes!! You are correct!

    @ Et al
    in case you missed it, remember you got the silver you got the gold and thats alright it will buy some time.

  75. What is that old Venezuelan saying?
    "An Anaconda has no conscience"

  76. JPAagau & pbfurn:

    advice: go long, re-invest profits on dips, never, ever, ever lose your position (meaning don't overuse leverage because that will lead you to a situation where you'll possibly lose your position).

    If you don't know enough about the markets to be certain of your decisions, don't invest in them. It's as simple as that. I personally spent years informing myself, reading etc before making my first small investment. Do it the other way around and go all in with a destructive trading strategy in a market you don't really know, and you're much more likely to lose money/purchasing power than to gain some.

    There might be some better examples on guys who got rich quickly off this thing, I'm up "only" ~400% on my paper position since when I entered it in November or so, but what I can say is all the way I never sold an ounce and no matter what this thing throws at me, I can catch it and probably buy it up. Safety first, profits second. Better for the nerves, and in the long term, better for your wealth situation as well.

  77. Atlee... I'm still tracking with you. I'll probably put another 25% in the open (depending on how everything is looking) and the balance back in at the first good opportunity... then I'm just going to ride it up.

    I think the bottom line is that Turd and you see the same endpoint (as do I) and I'm more inclined at this point just to ride out the volatility in getting there rather than trying to time/buy/sell the dips/lows/highs.

    OldNavy - it was Mike Maloney's book a few years ago that finally tipped me into completely abandoning the market in the "traditional" way and totally into metals... physical until I had my core, now paper to buy other things.

    It is flat out the simplest, most common sense book out there. If you recommend this book to someone, they read it, but still aren't convinced, there is no reason to waste another second trying to convince them.

  78. Atlee

    You said "In Asia the the mkt is currently 47.76. So lets say monday morning we trade promptly to 48.25. Then in the course of 30 minutes we trade down to 45.70. An hour later we are back to 48 and by 1:25 we are $49.17. Tuesday we go through $50."

    THIS is exactly what I think will happen and considering I work a desk job M-F without minute-by-minute exposure to the markets, I feel it's in my best interest to just make my personal physical purchase this weekend. Set it and forget it!

    Also thanks for your insights, especially on AGQ. I'm nearing the point of taking out my 401k with penalties (AGQ, miners, etc) and purchasing more physical. I suppose "disorderly" is the new term of 2011 and I'm not about to mess with it!

    Also Turd, holy crap that video was hilarious. Thank you for making me smile in such dire times. Cheers!

  79. kiyotei

    Yeah, I'm around. Would prefer not to get up close and personal, email-wise though. If you've got questions, ask away. I'll help if I can.

  80. @ atlee

    Thanks for the reply and clarification.

    Got some physical and some miners. Been holding those for a couple of years.

    I'm a futures trader wannabe. (mini silver) Kinda undercapitalized (Tradestation recommends a minimum of 50K) so I tend to "trade scared". Not the best situation but that's how it is.
    I've had the account since early March.

    Anyway, I am quite upset at myself for missing the huge run up in silver. Had a contract at 37.20 and was stopped out at 36.80. That trade alone would be up $9,000 today. I guess you could say I "could'nt believe" the move could continue and just knew I could get wiped out on a correction. Stop placement is a real problem for me.

    However, now that I'm "good and mad", I'm ready to try to take some action this week.

    I'll be watching for one of those $2 drops and hopefully have the guts to take the plunge and buy. Looking for upper 48 to lower 49s as a target, then set a tight stop at that point. We'll see if Turd's right about the takedown to 45 or so later in the week.

    The main thing that worries me at this point is a move below 45 or 44. Then I would worry about a much larger move downward and might bail out there with a really large loss.

    Quite the quandry....

    Mike Tyson said "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth"

  81. @Eric#1 - I gotcha. Understand. No worries. Was just going to suggest a swap or two perhaps since you seem like a collector.

  82. kiyotei

    A swap between us? Doubtful I'd be interested in making that happen.

    Or did you just want to pick my brain about a swap of your own that you are considering? Pick away. I'm here.

  83. @ Fort

    I will try to give a shout out if and when I step in for more (AGQ). I went into this weekend with guns loaded. I didn't sell any of it but I do have dry powder.

  84. @ Fred
    u r welcome. It is a tough mkt now to call that close. Do you own any physical? You know you should right?

  85. @ Atlee...

    Thanks... like I said, if we are wayyyy up from the Thursday close at the open on Monday, I'll probalby watch during that first hour and decide accordingly... if no pull back, I'll put at least another 25% and keep watching, if a hefty hit, probably put another 50% and watch...

  86. Markus - It would be great if you could share some of the specifics of your strategy so that we could either learn from it or critique it.

  87. @ atlee

    Yes, have some. Bought most of it in '08 around $12/oz. Wish I'd bought a heck of a lot more :)

  88. @kiyotei

    Alzheimer's?? I pictured you as a 30-something guy out there hikin the mtns an eatin freeze-dried vegan backpack food. Don't tell me you are one of "us"? :)

  89. Industries will pay whatever the price for silver because they don't want to shut down production. Wouldn't be in government's best interest to lose those jobs either. You're paying hundreds of dollars for these electronics anyway so I doubt an extra 10 or 20 dollars added on is going to crimp demand.

  90. "JPAagau said...
    Markus - It would be great if you could share some of the specifics of your strategy so that we could either learn from it or critique it."

    No secret about it. CFDs (now switching slowly to FX), 90% silver, 10% gold, total leverage on my account about 3-4x, re-investing profits steadily, but only on dips (and be it only a 50 cent daily pullback).

    My current downside is that I'd be back at even, my starting point, should silver go down about 30%. Total account balance is not so big that it dwarfs my physical holdings or my regular income, thus I have plenty of other backup as well so that I might even be able to buy into bigger corrections, not only hold what I have. Also I might hedge bigger corrections by going short the stock market or other commodities or long the USD, but I haven't had the need to do so yet.

    The core point of the strategy is to never, ever sell silver, because I do not want to miss any potential upside. For me price drops mean buying opportunity, nothing else.

    I'd be proud if someone would try to replicate it (tbh it's not that complex or something), but if not, at least you got a different point of view, and that can be good sometimes too. I'd love to hear/read your strategy too JPAagau.

    Oh, and at signs of trouble I'd switch more of my overall portfolio to miners and physical.

  91. @eric- It's cool. See you made me sound like an idiot in public? :-) That's why I asked for a private email- BUT I know getting personal involves a risk you want to avoid.

    @oldNavy - I am retired Navy. I turn 51 this year but I'm trying to be more like my hero from Grizzly Adams ~ remember a guy named Jack! :-)

  92. Kiyotei:

    Wow, I had a quite different picture!

    This board is quite infested with Navy people and Michigan people, it seems! Maybe it's just that I notice them?

    Bedtime in the east. Enjoy! See you all at Globex open tomorrow nite.

    Happy Easter!

  93. kiyotei

    Nothing personal, but I just think it's a risk we all want to avoid. Most of us on here have some degree of physical holdings. We talk about security and storage options all the time but nothings perfect. Nothing perfect in cyber-securty either. I value my anonymity. Giving out email addresses probably just makes it that much easier for some enterprising bad guy to show up at your front door someday. Something I'd rather avoid, no matter what I'm doing for storage. If I were you, I'd delete that post with your email address in it, but it's up to you.

    Off topic--I hope to try out that canned ground beef maybe Mon or Tues. I'll let you know.

  94. Great stuff Turd, $70 in June, nice.

  95. @OldNavy - No I think you are spot on. Lot's of squids here ;-)

    @Eric - I KNOW exactly what you mean and I NEVER take anything personally. Everyone must manage their own personal risk. I guess I just don't worry about that much. I've had that e-mail for years and aside from the SPAM I don't worry about publicly posting it since it's been posted 1000 times since 1993. I'm paranoid about a lot of things but being robbed is not one of them. My booby traps are set for zombies :-)

    Let me know how the hamburger tastes. I was picturing a lovely goulash dish made with it in my mind.

  96. If the target for silver is $70 late June, how will gold fare? $1600+? Also, will such a spectacular melt-up in silver, if it comes to pass, also precipitate a similar melt-up in gold? Wouldn't big money then set its sights on gold also?

  97. Turd

    China should cap forex reserves at 1.3 trillion U.S. dollars: China banker - People's Daily Online

  98. Turd,

    Is the vid made by you ? would be good it what is being described can be presented in a form of roadmap to aid the visualization.

    The other thing, i have certain reservation is the magnitude of the correction after the 47.50 - 48.00 region. In my assessment, we should be seeing a approximate of 8.62% drop, which translates to abt $4.13 drop, which translates to price of around 43.86 level. I am tracking cycle, i think this coming one is the sub cycle 6-2 end, referencing the sub cycle 6-1 which ended on 15 Mar 11, after the Japan earthquake which was a 8.62 % drop. The postulation here is 6-2 and 6-1 should be similar in time and magnitude for the correction....which points to low around 26 Apr +/- and 8.62% drop from the 6-2 top (~47.50-48.00).

    Thereafter 6-3 should start, and takes it to those levels that the vid has suggested. 6-3 should right translate and the 6-3 top in my estimation should come in between Jun/Jul....before plunging down into Jul/Aug for the 34 months low.

    Do you see a chance of a 8.62% drop from this top ? If so, what is the odd of it happening ?

    Tay BC

  99. Timer ur posts are always insightful! Thanks for that buddy.

  100. This comment has been removed by the author.

  101. Apologies to Afrum in case I did not get this exactly right but this is what he said last week.(the 15th?) "This next week will be great. Sell everything on Thursday. Take Profits. Buy back on Weds after 2:15 (Benron Speak) or 1/2 hour after market calms down" So far would be a winning move.

  102. @AP

    Thanks for the ideas - certainly do not consider your comment a form of bashing.
    My recent posts laid out a portfolio of the junior miners and have held many since 2007 - and having adding positions like to Great Panther since it was .36, Just needed to engage in options, while waiting for the miners to come alive again, its been the lucrative place to be and like most of us have made out very nicely. Thanks to you Turd and Turd posters. Setting multiple stops is something I have been doing - not as many as you have. Santa Sinclair has been saying to look for wide swings now - volatility is baked into the system since the worthless derivatives have been cast upon us like some kind of floatsam, it looks like it is coming ashore.

  103. Timer we're closer geographically than u think! I'm also in SG. Time for me to buy you a cuppa friend! :)

  104. Hi Timer & JoeKa,

    I am a silver bull, also living in Singapore. Glad to see your posts here:-)

    Best Regards,

  105. 3 in day! Amazing! No longer the lone ranger... :)

  106. AgApe47, Timer & JoeKa:

    Thank you for all that valuable information.

    That's exactly what I was looking for :)

    I'm in gold right now, but looking for a nice move UP in the Silver market using AGQ.

    I suppose COMEX won't default and SLV, GLD, AGQ et al wont = 0 this time around (hopefully). PLease enlighten me if I'm wrong

  107. Raul: I see no way a COMEX default can be avoided. If not now then surely that day is coming.

    I'm back to cash after taking significant profits last week. For better or worse thats what I did. While I'm on the sidelines for now, it won't be too til I'm back in again.

    I love this community, but we could all do better in being tolerant to individual strategies and risk profiles.

    Also I believe that a soft word turns away wrath but a harsh word elicits malice. Always we must remain humble, teachable, balanced and understanding.

    We're all in this together in likemindedness. I thank TF for everything I've learnt from him. I'm grateful.

  108. Good news for Palladium investors:

    Toyota sees output restored by November-December

  109. @Timer and those calling for a 5% to 8% comex price correction:

    While I agree with your technical analysis regarding prior short-term cycle relative lows and highs, I am impressed with the growing divergence between the behavior of the price of silver on the COMEX and the price of silver on the physical market.

    As an example, I would like to point out the price comparision between Comex cyclical analysis, coin shop pricing, and EBay pricing.

    The Comex cyclical analysis suggested by some is a short-term down-turn to $43.00 range.

    Today's coin shop pricing is based on's published price of $47.73. The coin shops are charging a $4.00 premium on that price. Local coin shops in my area only offer the $4.00 to $5.00 premium on orders greater than 20 ounces of American or Canadian bullion. If you want fewer than ten 1-oz US or CDN bullion silver, they are now charging $10.00 over spot. This puts today's at-the-shop price at $57.75.

    EBAY has an auction that just ended for three 2011 1oz US ASE's at $169.49 (price clearly over $50). It appears that the bid prices are hovering around $55.00 per ounce in general.

    Based upon these observations, I would point out that the coin shops across the globe are selling with a US$47.50 per ounce with a premium which takes the price to $53.00. For those purchasing from EBay, the $55.00 per ounce price is dialed in tonight.

    Can someone tell me why we should believe the COMEX paper price accurately reflects silver's price when the EBAY and COIN SHOP guys are all selling at a 10-15% premium above the COMEX price?

    If anything, the Comex is not keeping up with the real price of silver on the street and internet.

    Doesn't this analysis also mean that the legitimacy of comex-involved paper contracts is declining in value?

    My view is that train is leaving the station because the Chinese are not done buying gold and silver. The Chinese need to important tons of gold and silver in order to convert the Chinese Yuan to a world reserve currency.

  110. An interesting possibly contrarian view:

    Will Rising Rates Skyrocket the Gold Price? History says YES!

  111. Thanks JoeKa for your reply.

    Do you believe GLD will default this time around?
    I, as many others, am nervous about those possible default rumours, whilst we should only be concerned about it going down in price instead (due to the obvious fact that it's a precious metal that's being invested upon and therefore it always would have some kind of value).

    Is there any other ETF or similar you could recommend me to invest to instead of GLD / SLV / AGQ, etc.?

    Is Sprott any safe?

    I've tried to make my own diligence on all of this, but many of these news are hard to get info to, therefore I'll rather hear your more experienced opinions.

    I do have physical as well, but I dont want to lose it all on a dumb play (by comex)


  112. Great vid. I shall watch the numbers next week with interest and detachment.

    I never understand why anyone is in cash now. No good for the heart or head.

    Just sit on a pile of physical on the sidelines and watch the price go up and down like a hookers draws. Great fun.

  113. I have a contrarian (temporary) view on the next couple months:

    April 27, 12:30pm ET:
    Fed announces there will be no QE3 (and may also increase interest rates by .25%)

    Reasons I believe this:
    •PIMCO announced they sold all USBonds (they are bought & paid for by TPTB)
    •Goldman recently downgraded commodities (insider call)
    •MSM is bullish on gold/silver (why now? They are also paid for by TPTB)
    •MSM is now touting the COMEX silver default rumors (previously only tin foil)
    •Silver manipulation is at an all time low (like they want it to reach highs)
    •BlackRock refutes SLV fund fraud allegations (really, you don’t need physical!)
    •Martin Armstrong’s cycle turning point is June 13, 2011 (low in gold)

    Temporary Reactions to the Fed announcement:
    1. Commodities dive down hard (maybe testing 2008 highs gld/slv: 1011/21):

    * JPM gets out of all shorts (probably making a killing with the recent highs) & switches to long
    *COMEX deliveries all drop out – no default
    *Physical holders start panic selling, central banks/JPM/… buy it all
    *SLV gets its physical back & BlackRock is proven trustworthy

    Gold: Same as silver

    Oil: Obama looks like he saved the day with his dream team threats

    2. USBonds skyrocket (yields drop) – PIMCO picks them back up & foreign holders pause on their selling

    3. Goldman clients happy with unbelievable call

    4. USD bounces off the critical low (kick the can down the road again and get the politicians off the Fed’s back)

    5. Stock Market - ??

    June 13-14 (Martin’s low) – reality is kicking in:

    • Central Banks/TPTB own most of the physical gold & silver so they will roll out the new World Fiat (backed partially by PM) – presto, they are still in control, but “almost” universally.
    a. Libya is about to succumb to TPTB (central bank)
    b. Iran is next
    c. Then North Korea,…

    • All their paper ponzi schemes are still in tact (fiat, LMBA, COMEX, SLV, GLD,….)

    • Gold & Silver sky rocket since they are tied to the new fiat (JPM makes another killing, paper holders are rewarded, few Sheople own physical & still won’t learn the truth about real money, TPTB have no threat)

    • Round & Round we go,…..

  114. And the LORD said let there be light! And a TURD came forth!

  115. Dear All, Turd,

    I am holding AGQ and long spot silver contracts at the moment. I understand that the possibility of a COMEX silver default is for real. When the default happens, for example during market open, will AGQ and those contracts instantly reset or gap down to 0? Will our stop losses be able to help us exit our positions quick enough with minimum damage?

    Do you think COMEX will announce the default after market close and hence once the next market session starts, our positions will be of 0 value or worthless?

    In addition, I understand that SLV is an ETF backed by tons physical silver similar to GLD which is backed by physical gold. Won't SLV survive the coming COMEX silver default then?

    What can we do now that we know a COMEX default is coming? Restrict ourselves to only buy silver miners like SLW or Global Silver Miners SIL?

    Really appreciate anyone's reply here or if Turd can address some of the specific circumstances mentioned above. I believe that many silver holders want to know what they should do when they know a COMEX default is coming.

    I consider myself as a newbie silver trader that needs help.

    Thanks and Best Regards,

  116. Whoa ArmaLite! Sounds like a Hollywood script to me right there man. You think Harvey Weinstein may find it of interest?

  117. Raul: sorry I'm only gonna answer a portion of your question.

    I'd only ever recommend three investment vehicles:

    1. Physical
    2. Paper (Xag/Xau) - quick turnaround profits used to buy more physical
    3. Producers (miners) - despite the 'disappointment' over performance compared to paper/physical. I come from the general school of thought that is always more profitable to invest in the company that produces the product than the product itself. Though in this instance the product I refer to are all paper based equivalents.

  118. Hi JoeKa,

    UOB in Singapore offers Silver Savings Account. Do you think it will be negatively affected by a Comex silver default?


  119. @Sugi: I started my adventures in PMs with the UOB Gold and Silver accounts and made good fiat there.
    Whilst through the process slowly building confidence in precious metals investing, learning about the fundamentals, Technical Analysis, patterns, etc.

    Thereafter I expanded into Physical and leveraged trading for quick fiat generation - and continue to do to this day.

    Coming back to your question. The UOB accounts are basically UNALLOCATED bullion instruments. This is evidenced by the fact that you can't withdraw profits by physical metal only cash. If you don't hold it, you don't own it! I was under no illusion of this, and mainly used it to turnaround fiat - though by the nature of the instrument, less efficiently.

    The default we're talking about here pertains to Physical - COMEX unable to fulfill delivery of contracts which held out. The greatest implications of default hence is to the Physical. As we already know, there is growing difference between Spot Price vs Physical price (ebay the best source!).

    More on Allocated vs Unallocated:

  120. Continuing to update on this story:

    Apr 24, South China Morning Post
    One-off move to revalue the yuan unlikely

  121. Sugi, JoeKa

    How easy is it to buy physical in Singapore and what tax % is applicable locally? I live in Thailand where silver bullion (bars and coins) is difficult to get. Can you post some links to suppliers in SG please?!


  122. US default could be doomsday option for economy:

    Seeking alpha:

    Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke calls failure to raise the debt limit "a recovery-ending event." U.S. stock markets would likely tank _ devastating roughly half of U.S. households that own stocks, either individually or through 401(k) type retirement programs.

    Option 1 default and ruin the economy rapidly

    option 2 QE3 and ruin the economy slowly.

    to me, option 1 is not an option, QE3 could have potential if they were to make massive goverment spending cuts and do the right things.

    possible third option, war.

    Im not worried about lasting PM corrections.

  123. This comment has been removed by the author.

  124. @ben: Surprisingly, sources to buy physical bullion are not that wide in S'pore. While over the past year there have been more climbing out of the woodwork, it is still woefully lacking.

    There is no additional tax apart from 7% GST one would have to pay if buying from a larger player. Though there are more private sellers who have recently started hawking their wares through PM forum sites. This is good for those who buy smaller quantities.

    If you want to buy larger quantities, the axiom: "the closer you are to the source (retail), the more expensive it is" seems to hold true - at least in my country. It is still cheaper to buy from sites such as Gainsville, First Majestic, etc who ship internationally. The cost, plus shipping and tax is still cheaper if you were to buy from the newly established sources locally.

    I have listed some local links for your perusal. Please do not construe as personal recommendations:

  125. @F: I share your opinion on 'corrections' in PMs being short-lived.

  126. @Timer: dude, could I recommend you delete that post with your mobile number.

    We can email you directly and arrange chit chat meet-ups if rest of the locally based guys are interested. I know I am to hear more about your analysis work which I find intriguing!

  127. thanks joeka. i had already been looking at first majestic. was delaying ordering - when at 40.80 on their site - now at 47.80!!! i checked and most of the stuff is out of stock, 4 weeks pre-order or unavailable. i'll check the others you mentioned but will probably go for fm if cheaper.

  128. @ben. FM's rounds are BEAUTIFUL! You won't be disappointed as its a simple design and .999 purity.

    While Silver is Silver is Silver, it is probably a good thing to have a varied stash of generic and Mint rounds (ASE, maples, Perth Mint, etc).

    Currently I'm exploring buying bags of junk coins to mix it up even more.

    All the best!

  129. Does anyone know how to file taxes for XAG/USD trading? What's the tax rate for US citizens, and what's the best category to put it under? Forex is pretty much all going to be short-term capital gains, so does anyone know how to file this in the best tax-reducing way possible?

  130. @E: you have capital gains tax on investment returns in the States?

  131. @Sugi: we're planning to have a meetup sometime this week? Interested? Email Timer.

  132. will Bernank' say something awesome on wednesday?

  133. - I too believe the EE has lost complete control of the PM markets
    - The Emperor has no clothes; the Bernanke can say anything but it will have zero or very little impact. Perhaps a smidge very short term
    - Holders of PM's still constitute a very very small minority of people, but there is the beginning of an awakening.
    - There appears to be a ravenous aggregate world-wide beast ready to pounce on any dip; so i agree with Atlee in regards to any dip lasting days/weeks; aint gonna happen
    - We are at the beginning of end game here folks; you can toss your TA, your old models, etc. The end game may play out over weeks, months, even years but the process has begun
    - you must have physical, and get as many ounces as you can. Forget dollars, euros, whatever and only think in ounces.
    - And of course to the degree you can store, food, alcohol, TP, etc. The price is not coming down anytime soon.

  134. Will AGQ go to zero?

    This from Jim Sinclair on April 20th 2011:

    Jim’s Mailbox
    Posted: Apr 20 2011 By: Jim Sinclair Post Edited: April 20, 2011 at 2:42 pm

    Filed under: Jim's Mailbox

    Dear Jim,

    As gold and silver continue bull runs, do you have any concern the Comex may invoke extraordinary measures prohibiting any new long positions? This was done to force liquidation of the Hunt Brothers silver positions.

    There is a lot of speculation some bullion banks are trapped in heavy short positions. Because you were personally involved in resolving the Hunt Brothers/Comex issues, we CIGAs would greatly appreciate your views on this subject.

    CIGA Doug

    Dear Doug,

    That was a unilateral novation of a contract which is illegal under contract law. They got away with it in the 80s but would probably not get away with it now. Really that means nothing to the long that never sees his silver or gold.

    Litigation would break the exchange as a subsidiary of a major corporation, in time resulting in the longs and shorts establishing losses and gains on paper in court at the close of the day, a meaningless exercise that would screw the longs and the shorts in bankruptcy. This would cause a run on gold and silver paper delivery ETFs. It would also shift big money into gold and silver shares.

    If you really want gold and you hold futures, you had better take delivery soon.


  135. One thought on end game; you can throw out all your assumptions about getting paid on futures contracts, anything with counter-party risk. That risk gets exponentially higher as we near end game.

  136. Today I bought 16 ounces of silver. Feeling so good :)

  137. I always thought AGQ is a scam. Always going up, some crazy shit if you ask me.

  138. hopefully this week will be very action packed.

  139. @Me,
    Congratulations on the 16 oz

    If the economy collapses, perhaps all ETFs will prove to be worthless. Even shares of stock may be worthless if you don't hold the paper certificates to prove ownership.

    Stay nimble in AGQ. I like its big mood swings.

    Go Physical!

  140. @armalite
    I was with you until the new currency thing happening this year

    @ F
    If given the change a president will always choose war. I agree war is likely and with the economy tanking it will not be hard to make that jump. War is also how many presidents get re elected

  141. Don't forget about our friends in China.

    Only government actively encouraging silver ownership by private citizens.

    They have an inflation problem and they do not want civil unrest that occurs. They have a lot of human beings to deal with.

    Remember the numbers...our entire US population...
    is their ROUNDING ERROR in terms of numbers of people

    Average citizens in China do not have enough to open a brokerage account but they can invest in an oz of silver.

    Interesting short video...dated but the government encouragement and ready access to silver for citizens continues.

  142. Hi JoeKa,

    I just sent an email to Timer about my availability for the meeting.

    By the way, can't wait for the silver market to open at 6am tomorrow. I understand that the last price of silver as per Friday's close was 47.73 according to this website

    another gap up then...hmmm..Anyway I am thinking of selling some of my long contracts when the price is closer to 48. I know that recently Monday has a habit of starting strong in the morning Asia time and then pullback sharply through the afternoon. I am expecting a sell-off before the Fed meeting on Tuesday. Still holding some profitable AGQ though...


  143. Good Morning

    Some theories have arisen over night that have a few problems with consistency:

    armalite: In your scenario you mention:

    Goldman recently downgraded commodities (insider call)
    •MSM is bullish on gold/silver (why now? They are also paid for by TPTB)

    Those are totally contradictory - Goldman's call is not bullish/msm bullish

    How is Obama looking like a hero when the DOW crashes and 401ks tank?

    Bernanke himself said that failing to raise the debt ceiling would end the 'recovery' - QE cannot be stopped or the US defaults on its debts - that is not going to make Obama look good.

    murphy says:

    "What if that did actually happen but the dealers were able to lease more than enough silver to cover their short futures positions? Since there is now more than enough available silver, lease rates would fall and normalize. While the original supply imbalance has already been -"

    Where did the 'more than enough available silver' come from? The leased silver has to be returned ....

    Timer - the old rules do not apply, I would suggest - or if so, the cycles should be sped up.

    F I think has it right:

    "Option 1 default and ruin the economy rapidly

    option 2 QE3 and ruin the economy slowly."

    I am totally with atlee on this one - I wish luck to the dip catchers and don't get stuck out of the disorderly upside. There is a real danger with leverage of placing bigger and bigger bets and then losing it all. Physical first.

    And as Michael said - keep your eye on the prize here - there is much disinformation out there and it is designed to shake you from your position - we all started here believing in a bull run - don't miss this leg up.

  144. A few mos. back, but BM at her best!

  145. Troll,

    "I always thought AGQ is a scam. Always going up, some crazy shit if you ask me. "
    Well, we're not asking you, but...
    I always thought the buck was a scam. Always going down ( since 1913 it's lost 97% ), some crazy shit if you ask me.

  146. @Sugi: yeah I'm setting the clock before 6am to observe the open and act accordingly.

  147. Would anybody kindly answer me this question:

    Would you buy silver coins or a bullion such as ?

    I'm quite new to commodity investing and would kindly appreciate an answer to this. Thanks!

  148. JoeKa!! You been busy this morning, dude!

    I'd like to take issue with that article you posted regarding gold rising along with interest rates. It completely misses the important point, and that is REAL interest rates. Nominal short term rates (currently Zip) minus anticipated inflation. Inflation currently looks like it is somewhere between 6% (bogus cpi) and 12% (shadowstats?). Real interest rates are currently hugely negative. That's what drives the golden bull. Gold is a superior form of cash in this environment.

    Can gold rise along with rates? Sure, as long as the Fed is seen to be "behind the curve" vs inflation. But back in 1980, Volker raised short term rates high enough and fast enough to eventually get ahead of inflation, provide a postive real interest rate, and kill the golden bull.

    So, if the Europeans raise rates by 1%, would it kill the bull? Not hardly. A correction maybe, but real rates would remain solidly negative.

    If Bernanke pretends to stop QE, would it kill the bull? Not hardly. A correction maybe, but real rates would remain solidly negative.

    If Bernanke (or the marketplace) raised rates by 1% would it kill the bull? Not hardly. I can imagine a lot of carnage in all markets if the Fed suddenly came out with a 1% Fed Funds Rate, but when the dust settles the golden bull will resume it's march until the market becomes convinced that Bernanke has developed the will to push rates as high as necessary to provide a positive REAL interest rate.

  149. Bernanke cannot raise rates; the interest portion of the budget would skyrocket. QE cannot end, we are in end game.

  150. @Eric: Hey hey! Yeah busy because you chaps were sleeping! LOL
    My snooze time is fast approaching. :)

    Came back from Easter church service and I had all this free time on my got busy basically.

    Great point you made about real interest rates. Good base for beginning a debate about this I reckon.

    How's the canned beef panning out? :P


    Gold blowout: Hits $1,500... Mania event could arrive soon...

  152. Pat

    You are oh, so , correct!

    I wasn't arguing that he would or could. Just trying to point out that REAL interest rates are the key. Negative real rates are current policy. And postive real rates are not an option like they were under Volcker. Government debt is way too high. We are most assuredly....screwed.

  153. JoeKa

    The canned beef was discussed at length a few nights ago. Sorry you missed it. Bottom Line "Just Ok".

    kiyotei is waiting for a review of the canned ground beef, and I hope to get to that in a day or two.

    The canned bacon, however, was spectacular!

  154. Happy Easter to all who celerate the day.

    Quick question for anyone interested.

    If the dollar were to be tied to gold again, what would that do to the price of gold and silver?

  155. Damn, the 500+ post threads are making it difficult to find the relevant canned beef info.

    I gotta get me some canned bacon. But I don't know where to find any where I live...or if its allowed even! LOL

  156. Would people recommend buying physical or online? Or is it based on preference?

  157. Nixtus

    It would seem to me that ownership of pure (.999 or better) Silver coins will have an advantage over bullion in that in an emergency it would probably be easier to sell that coin than some Silver bar. And if you are worried about keeping your Ag safe, I would think that secretly storing a coin would be asier than hiding a bar.

    On the flip side, the premium one must pay for coins is higherb than bars. However, one must keep in mind that the premium would in all likelyhood be recovered upon sellin the coin.

    Beyond that, any physical wonership meaning the Ag is physically in yr possession & not in someone else's bank vault or safety deposit box, is the insurance & peace of mind one should strive for.

  158. @ paulindoon

    Thank you so much for your reply, it really helped!

  159. As long as the whole canned food menagerie came up again, has anybody out there ever tried whole chicken in a can? They have them at many of my local grocers but I've never had the nerve to try it.

  160. Apologies for the long post, but was listening to this on the iPod this am in the gym and somehow the lyrics struck a nerve re: the EE, Blythe & Ruprecht, JPM et al...NIN's Head Like a Hole:

    God money i'll do anything for you.
    God money just tell me what you want me to.
    God money nail me up against the wall.
    God money don't want everything he wants it all.
    No you can't take it
    No you can't take it
    No you can't take that away from me
    No you can't take it
    No you can't take it
    No you can't take that away from me
    Head like a hole.
    Black as your soul.
    I'd rather die than give you control.
    Head like a hole.
    Black as your soul.
    I'd rather die than give you control.
    Bow down before the one you serve.
    You're going to get what you deserve.
    Bow down before the one you serve.
    You're going to get what you deserve.
    God money's not looking for the cure.
    God money's not concerned with the sick among the pure.
    God money let's go dancing on the backs of the bruised.
    God money's not one to choose
    No you can't take it
    No you can't take it
    No you can't take that away from me
    No you can't take it
    No you can't take it
    No you can't take that away from me
    Head like a hole.
    Black as your soul.
    I'd rather die than give you control.
    Head like a hole.
    Black as your soul.
    I'd rather die than give you control.
    Bow down before the one you serve.
    You're going to get what you deserve.
    Bow down before the one you serve.
    You're going to get what you deserve.
    Bow down before the one you serve.
    You're going to get what you deserve.
    Bow down before the one you serve.
    You're going to get what you deserve.
    Head like a hole.
    Black as your soul.
    I'd rather die than give you control.
    Head like a hole.
    Black as your soul.
    I'd rather die than give you control.
    Bow down before the one you serve.
    You're going to get what you deserve.
    Bow down before the one you serve.
    You're going to get what you deserve.
    You know who you are.

  161. JoeKa

    I think I can find them. I'll try to find the relevant stuff for you and repost.

  162. JoeKa
    Here ya go on the beef.

    Eric#1 said...

    Canned Beef report (all others scroll on by)

    Well, we tried the canned beef first as explained in my post above to xty. First impression was "meh, just ok", but then Mrs. Eric#1 and I remembered that our home canned beef as kids had a tremendous amount of black pepper in it, so we peppered it up. Upgraded to "just ok, plus", but still it seems there's a textural thing that wasn't right. Bottom line though was that we both went back for seconds and were scraping the kettle, so that means something right there. Would I buy more? I'll try the others first (pork, turkey, etc.) and then decide, but I'm thinking maybe yes. But really it just makes me want to get a canner and do it myself.
    April 20, 2011 7:01 PM

  163. The canned ground beef tastes just like ground beef you would cook yourself. Good with rice or noodles or a sloppy Joe manwitch. Cheese came so we are going to make an omelet. Pail piggy and cheese omelet for Easter. Report later.

  164. For all of the SLV skeptics out there, thought I would post an excerpt from Ted Butler's most recent newsletter (yesterday):

    There continues to be stories circulated about the SLV being a fraud, mostly because JPMorgan is the custodian of the metal. For the umpteenth time, I find these stories to be hogwash. I’ve come to conclude that nothing will ever satisfy the SLV skeptics. That said, the one legitimate knock against the SLV, namely, the short selling of its shares, is hardly mentioned. The latest figures weren’t published yet, but I don’t plan to ignore the matter if the short interest in SLV rises again. Aside from that very specific issue, the SLV has been the silver investor’s best friend.


    Now we have gone around and around about this. But let's remember, Mr. Butler has been wrong about exactly NOTHING concerning silver over the last 25 years. He was John the Baptist crying in the wilderness about silver manipulation. He has studied all the data for decades.

    I trust his opinion, probably even just slightly more than the Turd's, to be honest.

  165. JoeKa
    Here's a follow up.

    Eric#1 said...

    What I did was add a little water and soup base to stretch the liquid volume, and then just put it over noodles. Pretty much like I did when I was a kid. Mrs. E said they always thickened it for gravy and put it over mashed potatoes. (Ours was a noodle family, hers a potato family. A mixed marriage) As a stew would have been fine too. Maybe better because the busier the dish, the less you'd be concerned about some of the texture issues with the meat. I'm suddenly thinking it might be good just on toast. The crunch would change things up.

    Yes, I'll report on the bacon after breakfast.
    April 20, 2011 9:33 PM

    Word Ver: pantize
    as in, Blythe has hers in a bunch! lol

  166. @atlee (who may not be around)

    I agree with most of what you said.

    I wonder if you would comment on my strategy: PLAY BOTH SIDES

    Volatility is our friend in this market. Have simultaneous puts and call in place. I plan to have puts on SLV and call on AGQ. (Additionally, I plan to start playing long terms puts on the Dow btw, but that is beside the point right now).

    I figure the leverage insures that no matter which bet is "correct", the profits dwarf the losses.

    And in the best case scenario, you win going down AND going back up, if you are nimble enough (and lucky enough).

    Comments? Rude remarks??

  167. JoeKa
    Here's the bacon. And johnboatcat, thanks! that's exactly what I'm hoping for on the canned ground beef!

    Eric#1 said...
    I shit you not people, this canned bacon is GOOD. Really, really, surprisingly GOOD!!!! As compared to the case I had 2-3 years ago, it is:

    Easier to get out of the can
    Looks better
    Smells better
    Tastes better
    Texture is better

    Whoever produces this stuff has really fine tuned it over the last couple of years. On shelf life, here's a little snippet from the seller:
    "Bacon has no expiration date code; it is exempt from an expiration date because it has passed the USDA test demonstrating it has a shelf life in excess of five years."

    Obviously, nothing is ever going to replace fresh bacon, but I no longer consider this product as any kind of compromise. For the lazy/convenience factor at home, and for a serious food storage/bunker option, I wholeheartedly endorse it.

    Now I'm going to go and have some more bacon!!

    Word Verif: larditer

    April 21, 2011 9:11 AM

  168. Nixtus

    the lowest premiums on silver are still to be found on US coins refered to as Junk silver. those are 1964 and earlier dated half dollars, quarters, dimes and they are all 90% silver.

    they are sold in face value quantities
    1000 dollars face value contains ~715 ounces of silver. should be 720 but they have wear so that is the usual conversion.

    a local coin dealer might be your best bet and they can usually sell you any face amount and the premiums are very low over spot.

    this is a good way to begin accumulating physical silver in whatever quantity suits your budget and it is easier to dollar cost average if you can find a local shop and make small regular vs one larger internet purchase IMHO.

    the advantage as paulindoon pointed out regarding coins being recognizable with Junk silver still applies over bars. and the smaller coins may someday have some advantages over the 1 0z bullion coins as well.

    hope that helps as well... good luck

  169. Bam

    That issue comes up regularly in gold buggy discussions. In general, in order to have the supposed gold supply match up with various measures of money supply, I think people generally toss out numbers anywhere from $3000 to $10000 per ounce. Pick your favorite Gold-Silver ratio to get a guess on a silver price.

  170. @Eric: Thanks!

    Dam dude, it's 10.50pm here...and you are making me hungry again.

    I can hear the larditer monsters comin for me!

  171. Lol.. gold still trading here:

  172. @Markus: this is too're right! Is it some kinda glitch? Skynet?

  173. Happy Easter to one and all!

    Okay, off to spend the day with the family, but had to touch base.

    @Eric #1

    My family has been in imported food for over 50 years. It breathed it as a tiny tot! This may not be up your alley, but, hands down, the best canned meat, cheese and other dairy products (like Danish cream, yum!) are halal and available at stores that cater to Indians, Pakistanis and Bangladeshis as well as Middle Easterners. Obviously, there won't be canned pork, but there will be canned beef, chicken and even possibly lamb and goat products.

    Canned fish, of course, is available at the cheapest prices at stores that sell to Russians and other Eastern Europeans. Stores that cater to Germans and Scandinavians will generally be much, much pricier.

    I heartily recommend people going to food stores that cater to immigrants. The prices are usually the cheapest you'll find anywhere, many countries have never even heard of preservatives (except for citric acid), and your taste buds will be in for a treat.

    More later. Must run. My best to all Turdites everywhere.

    And thank you Turd, and Mrs. F for everything.

  174. Merry Easter everyone!


    either or, bullion bars will return spot or just under.

    bullion coins cost a premium but will return over spot to the right buyers.

    90% coins will give you more silver for the buck since you wont be paying high premiums on them

    smaller bars and coins allows you some flexibility
    You can cash in a certain amount if you ever needed to.

    so you should plan according to your needs

  175. Irene

    Yes, I remember you saying that before. One of my favorite local Asian food stores now has expanded into full aisles of foods aimed at the Indian and Hispanic markets, so I'm going to take a longer look at that stuff next time I go. I know I've seen ghee on the shelf before, but never really looked for meat products.

  176. @Cris

    I think SLV has quite a bit of silver, but not 100%. The adjustments to the total ounces gives me the impression that it is book keeping adjustments only. Fractional reserve system.

    Perhaps SLV has been relentlessly buying up physical since the rumours that they are empty just wont go away and thus they need more silver in case of mass redemption of their shares to physical. That would help explain the fast pricerises.

    Also SGS figured out that the texas uni buy of 21.4 tons of gold was GLD redemption, not a comex buy. This they keept quiet about to not encourage others to do the same. I think GLD also uses fractional reserves.

    disclaimer: I am guessing

  177. I suddenly realised where I could possibly buy these products back home once Irene mentioned Middle Easterners and Indians!

    I'm so checking it out later this week.

  178. @ Eric

    That's great! Convenience is half the battle. ;)

    Most Indians who are not Muslim are vegetarians. I will do a posting later about brands and products to look for, both meat and vegetarian.

    Okay, we're out the door now..... Gotta go eat chocolate Easter Bunnies!

  179. Goodnight Turdites! See you on your PM and market open.

    Meanwhile a blessed Easter to all.

  180. Eric#1 What's your spin on Kookaburras? I got some 2008 1oz coins and they seem to be very hard to find now. When I do see them they are getting BIG premiums like $79 on Apmex a month ago. I didn't buy them as collectibles just bullion but now that they appear more valuable than just spot - I'm hesitant to trade them. My original plan was to let them double in price (done), then trade for gold. What to do, what to do..... oh my precious! :-)

  181. Ok it's that time of the week where we all have a chance to be a Turd for day by guessing the end of the week silver close.(its gonna be wild)

    Since it can go either way this week, Im going to
    to make a contrarian guess and say .....

    drum roll.........(places envelope to forehead)

    52.25!!! Holy shit!

  182. @Irene: "Most Indians who are not Muslim are vegetarians."

    That would be incorrect.

  183. @ joeka

    try this search:

  184. Albert,

    I think you are correct.

    As Mr. Butler says, SLV has sold some shares short IE they don't have ALL of the silver.

    But to say they have none, or even not a great percentage of it, is unsubstantiated. They have at least 90% of the silver they claim if not more.

  185. WOW!!

    It's official:

    1. The dollar is toast

    2. Buy PMs with both hands

    3. Get set for really tough times

  186. Eric#1, et al ~

    I hadn't gotten in on all the canned bacon and other foods discussions that you all previously had on here. But since it's back on again, I thought I'd share a link that I found yesterday. This site has canned bacon and they show pics of how it looks coming out of the can all rolled up nicely. You guys may have already shared this site before, I'm not sure, but just in case not I thought I'd throw it out there for everyone. Their other canned meats look good too.

  187. To everyone who replied, thank you! I will look into local dealers in the UK and buy silver coins to the best of my budget.

    Thanks again!

  188. Cris, I'm with you. If Ted Butler says SLV is legit, then I believe it. No one knows silver like Ted Butler does.

    And regarding the issue of 90% vs bullion bars/rounds vs sovereign-minted coins - I'm a strong believer in getting the most ounces for your dollar. The high premiums on Eagles are due to demand, and eventually that consumer demand will shift to metal products with lower premiums. 90% currently can be purchased for around spot, but in the coming months/years, it will trade for a premium. Same with bars and rounds. On a percentage basis, I can't see the Eagle premiums keeping pace. As far as finding someone to buy your silver bars, there is no shortage of buyers online. Unless you're expecting a crash of civilization that takes down the internet and shipping services, there's no need to avoid traditional bullion bars and rounds.

  189. That China story is weird, at least two ways:
    - why on earth announce your intentions of flooding the market with $2T of anything, if you actually want buyers?
    - just who will be these new bag-holders? Not Pimco; not Russia, not BRIC's. Who?

  190. kiyotei said:

    "My original plan was to let them double in price (done), then trade for gold. What to do, what to do..... oh my precious! :-)"

    My plan (and problem) also!

    Don't know a lot about the Kookaburras. Instead of relying on APMEX pricing, I think I'd take a handful into a couple of my local shops and see whether or not they are really offering a premium for them. And decide from there. At my local shops, they'll pay better for ASE's, Engelhard, and Johnson Matthey, but not much else. They go strictly on what they can sell them for to local customers, not on some theoretical internet pricing.

    As an example, some of the stuff I have goes for a decent size premium on the internet. Mexico Libertads, A-Mark chunky bars. But at my local shops it's just silver. Standard buy prices, nothing special.

  191. @ Cris
    I am flattered that you would ask me. I have to say I really don't know. I take it minute by minute during the trading session. I try to let the mkt dictate to me rather than the other way around. Anything can and will happen. Rude comments? Uh.... go with the flow grasshopper.

  192. Save_Am

    There's a lot of youtubes of canned bacon as well. A quick search will find at least a half dozen. They show it really well also.