Monday, April 11, 2011

The Witch's Claw

In a simple repeat of a pattern we've seen often here, overnight The Cartel reached up and clawed back the gains made late Friday and early Sunday evening. Here's just one of several Monday morning posts where we've discussed this phenomenon:

So, after reaching a high of $41.98 overnight, silver was dragged back down this morning, all the way to $40.92. Not surprisingly, it found nice support at that level and I'd expect $41 to be a nice floor throughout the day.
We discussed last evening that gold seemed hesitant to move much past 1478 and its now taking a breather, too. Again, I'd have expected support near 1465 and we got it. Even if that level fails, 1462 and then 1458 will attract significant buying. I will be one of the buyers should it happen.
Since peace, love and harmony have broken out all over the Middle East, oil has moved a little lower. Again, I don't put too much stick into the oil charts because price is almost being exclusively driven by geo-political events. As is always in that case, all bets are off. Gold can go $100 higher or significantly lower based upon actual events that the charts can't predict. For now, in the absence of news, WTI should find buyers between 111.25 and 111.50.
Following on that theme, in the absence of news, moves in the POSX will continue to drive PM price. The rollover last night coincided somewhat to a small dead-cat-bounce in the buck. The "rally" died right where you expect and now the POSX is once again moving downward. Watch last Friday's lows very closely. A drop through 75 on the JUNE (about 74.75 on the cash Kitco chart) would signal an accelerating decline toward 74.25.
OK, that's it. More later. TF

Just a quick silver chart with levels to watch.


  1. They can't keep silver down. It's relentless. GlD and GDX may run red, but SLV keeps gaining. Amazing.

  2. Are we calling 41.30 the first overhead resistance for now?

  3. Relentless - I love that word. I remember noticing that in my bullish commentary I was referring to silver as resilient a lot, and then that I had switched to relentless. And now Turd uses it, and now SSK. Not trying to take credit for this at all - just pointing out that silver has changed - not testing and retesting levels, relentlessly moving towards its true value vs fiat paper.

    Happy - my correcting you turned into a TEP - so I am copying it here, ignoring the message from karma to leave you be:

    Oh but I have to correct you Happy, somewhat ironically. It is not 'the party on the left', it is the 'parting on the left'. Brits refer to what Canadians call a 'part' as a 'parting' - it is the place on your head where your hair decides which way to fall. So it is about hair styles - they have changed the way their hair falls, and grown their beards, so you won't notice that Bernanke is still head of the Federal Bank, and that change you can believe in ain't so different from the same-old, same-old.

    Oh and look - we didn't go through 41.03!

  4. Xty don't spoil my fun by spouting facts hahaha. The message is the same..

    I was with you in Toronto. Joe Jackson as I recall got a rough ride as the opener (not cool). The kids in front of us drank so much during the wait that they passed out and gave us a great vew! I'm always OK with hoisting on shoulders have done my share.

    Small world this board is.

  5. I threw a question out there really late on Saturday so it didn't garner much response so I am tossing it back out there:

    Looking to exit my 401K and put the $ into something that won't subject me to income tax and is 100% backed by actual phys holdings

    Any suggestions?

    verification: TWING

  6. Yes, Stefan. I'd Like to see it move back UP through 41.40

  7. ok we had the overnight pop the am dip and is this the 4 hour consolidation in silver????

  8. Happy - what a small world indeed - although that was the biggest crowd I have ever been stuck in the middle of. It came close to too much, but stayed on the fun side. And nice of those drunken kids to give you a view - as long as they didn't barf on your shoes. I do remember a certain amount of messy behaviour, and after a while it was a good thing you couldn't see your feet (and I don't mean it like that).

    Silver is being a bit rangy on a one minute chart - but the downside got met with a pile of resistance. Breaking up will be much easier is my bet.

  9. Thanks a lot for confirming Turd

  10. The attached link to this vid:
    "The Power of Words",

    a touching i min wake up call, I would like to suggest would be an eye opener for the members of EE, notably Blythe's monkeys, for THEY do not seem to be able to see, even with their eyes fully opened, that the rest of the world have had it with their Ag & Au manipulation.

  11. Hey, can anyone help this guy? He emailed me over the weekend.


    First off, I would like to thank you for hard work and dedication to your blog. I recently found ZH and through it, your blog. You could say I have been awakened to what is really going on. Since you are the metals guru, I have a question for you. I am going to cash everything out of my 401k and buy physical gold and silver. I would like to do this locally, but I am not exactly sure what it is I want to buy. There are many different types of gold and silver coins available and some are fake. Specifically, what gold and silver coins do I want to purchase? What should I be on the lookout for when making these purchases? Also, would there be any dealers that you recommend in Dallas, Oklahoma City, Tulsa or Wichita, KS? Thank you again for what you do, and good luck.


  12. EXK support 11.77 Anything close to that is a gift.

  13. Re: Nick to Turd

    Same here but in NY/NJ area. Also looking to avoid the tax burden on liquidating the 401K by entertaining reliable IRA's 100 backed by phys.

  14. Sonufabiatch! Is there no floor for First Majestic?!

    I BTFD'd alright. Xty I need to hear it's relentless again! :D

  15. APMEX is in OK City.
    I have always purchased from them and they seem pretty good. Plus they will buy back at decent prices.

    Ina "crash" scenario, what dollar range would you see silver potentially falling to? I say no way below $25. Possibly $36 at this point....

    ~~~ "THE JEEPSTER"

  16. Shifting my buying to gas and nat gas today. Big buy into LNG. LNG is at the forefront of exporting LNG out of America. They own facilities first constructed to import liquified nat gas (LNG)into the country. Now they're reversing that with all the discoveries viable via fracking. LNG has been hammered the last couple days. I bought heavily at 8.03. This stock is a great flip.

    SLV is hanging in there. Just waiting to see what happens. Already been stopped out of my earlier EXK buy. Gonna be a pm watcher until further direction clarifies.


  17. Also, wanted to share my latest calculations. I believe these figures are "conservative":

    Gold should hit $1900/oz by year end.
    Silver at 36:1 ratio would = $52
    Silver at 20:1 ratio would = $92

    I feel that $60-$75 silver is a fairly "safe bet".


    ~~~ "THE JEEPSTER"

  18. for the people who want to move into physical using 401/ira money, consider looking at this page for self directed IRA information:
    do not take this as me in any way knowing enough about these companies to recommend them...

  19. Holy volatility Batman... the miners are puking up some major gains. FR doesn't seem to have a bottom this morning. Oddly - GPL is up. Go figure.

  20. Winker

    There are IRA custodians that hold PM's for you. A typical link below. Haven't used any personally, so I can't vouch for any particular one. The one referenced below, is a solid retailer and probably representative of what is offered for PM IRA's.

  21. For Nick, I was going to say APMEX in OKC as well.

    I just really like them and like the buy back too. They were very helpful on something in particular that I wanted to do.

  22. This comment has been removed by the author.

  23. Winker,

    If you are planning to buy physical in an IRA vehicle, are you comfortable not actually having possesion? Or did I misunderstand and you plan to liquidate your 401k, pay the penalties, taxes etc and buy physical outside of a 'qualified plan'.

    I'm not sure about your plan to sidestep taxation though. If there is a way to do that I'm all ears. I'm partial to the Austrian Philharmonic but that's just me.

    I've used fidelitrade over the years and have been satisfied with them

  24. hey atlee i saw exk hit 11.86 a lil while ago almost bought missed it. 11.77 would def be better

  25. Nick/Turd - Gold Money uses The Entrust Group to allow you to buy physical with your IRA. It is held in you choice of vaults in Europe. You can allocate gold or silver in any of their vaults.

  26. Spent half of my dry powder this a.m. and increased my physical silver position by 20%. Went with Provident on CC purchase. Started with APMEX, but Provident was $1 cheaper per Eagle on Credit Card. $41.10 was spot at the time of purchase, so $46.31 each (ouch that seems like a lot, but fortunately the card will be paid back in federal reserve notes)

  27. Going over the charts, I think GPL looks like the best set-up here. The effect of the dilution from the stock offering is petering out. It where my silver money goes for today.


  28. NIck

    Don't know about local sellers in your area, but there are quite a number of solid online retailers that get talked up here on a regular basis. I think you could buy just about anything you like from any of these guys and not worry about fakes. Here are a few:

    As far as what to buy, it's a personal decision. If you are new to the game, you could stick with products from the US MInt. Gold Eagles and Silver Eagles. If you want to branch out, that's good too. Anything Canadian is great. Australian Mint too. Personally, I don't buy anything Chinese, but that's just me. Private mint products are fine. In silver, anything Engelhard or Johnson Matthey is a great name. For gold, I love pre '33 US coins, also european coins. Sovereigns, Francs, etc. How about pre 65 US silver coins? You see, the list goes on and on. It's a journey. Buy a few different things and see what floats your boat.

  29. @Phil

    Would love to convert 401K to physical in possession but would have to pay tax of course. I guess I need to know if I can I shift current 401K to a qualified plan where I can invest in phys without actually taking possession and avoid the 30-40% income tax.

  30. Good Morning,
    First time poster but have been reading/learning much here for a while. My husdand 55yo, myself 53yo just did an inservice cash in of our 401K. The highest % one can cash in. Obviously, our 401K is *not* ours to do with what we like. For us, the taxes are/were a either pay not or later. So what we considered was the 10% penalty. The money that came in after the 10% penalty went into physical....10% penalty compared to current physical %s? We have no regrets and would of taken a much higher % out if we could. to wait till 59 1/2, although I have just looked into some info which says we can cash in every year, a certain %. We will decide then when that time comes to pass.

    Advice from a friend:
    "If you cash out and take the tax hit of lets say 40% for this example you aren't really losing 40% because you will need to consider the taxes you would have paid at the future date anyway, lets call that 25% or more depending on tax rates at the time. Add to that the fact that taxes have had a clear trend to higher and the fact that currency is eroding much faster as time progresses and you soon see that even a poor year in silver (average 21% over the last 10 years) offsets it.
    I got out of my 401K/IRA etc at $11.00 silver, I am up over 300% I would gladly pay 40% to get 300% of PRIVATE money any day of the week.

    I am not advising or advocating anything. I am just telling you how it worked for us."

    Just some thoughts to ponder...depending how close/far away your are from that 59 1/2yo mark.

  31. Seem to have built a decent base at 41 so I bought some May SLV calls on the lows today.

    Cost me .10 extra than had I stayed in over the weekend but at least I slept better on Friday and Saturday. Yesterday not too much haha.

    Glad the train came back to the station to pick me up.

    HiYo Silver away!

  32. Shame on you mamooth. Not nice to pick on old ladies.

    With silver booming, you should pay spot...always.

  33. If this is the best the EE can do regarding a beatdown then were in good shape.
    The MSM newscycle is just full of hope and spin.
    Today looks like the best BTFD we may get this week IMHO.

    The former PBOC calling the U.S. a ponzi scheme is a significant escalation of words.
    It appears TPTB internationally are aligning against us.
    You can thank the present administration for damaging long existing alliances to the point of being beyond repair.

    I look at today as a lull in the PM action. This type of negative PM day isn't too hard to take. It can't go up everyday all day long.
    This is probably healthy and it seems there is steady buying whenever their is a slight pullback.
    Once the general public starts to realize what has been going on in the PM's the momentum will just feed on itself.

    We haven't seen anything yet and we've seen alot so far so I remain optimistic about our long term situation.
    It's a uneasy feeling that all of this comes at the expense of U.S. dollar and our economic spiral but it's out of our control.
    How we've gotten to the point where our elcted officials no longer serve the publics interest is stunning and a bit of a helpless feeling.
    Hang tough and stay positive.
    As Santa says...we are the 1%er's who have an edge at this point.

  34. Mammoth

    Nice one! Robbing little old ladies, you must be proud.

    Just kidding, lol

  35. R man J, Good one. I fantasize of maxing out my CC and buy eagles to never repay those suckers back! Would be nice...

  36. POSX just rolled over.

    Go silver.

  37. For Nick - my APEX comment was is you want to physically possess the metal. I agree with others for other options.

    That said, if people are interested in "physical," I have to save that I am in the camp that "physical" mean that I possess it, not someone else... not in a saftety deposit box, not in a bullion vault, not in a jewelry store vault down the road... either you HAVE physical, or you don't... anything short of holding/hiding it yourself is not "having physical" in my book.

    I just always refer people to Northern Rock in the UK a few years ago and that was LOCALIZED, not global... if they lock the doors, are directed by TPTB to hold... you don't own squat! I remember seeing the lines of Northern Rock customers trying to withdraw their paper and being locked out. Not scenes from 1929, but 2008. Just keep that in mind.

    At least a "bullion vault" in Canada or Australia seems relatively safe to me given their economies like with CEF, but really, you only hold electronic paper. Are people here really telling me that "holding physical" in a vault in EUROPE, EUROPE!?!?!? is any safer than here? Yikes!

    Patriot trading group
    call for some answers. I'm not affiliated just a fan of thier site and radioshow which I highly recommend daily. Great site Turd.

  39. @ ragedmax

    I don't think we will see the 11.77 in EXK but as close as we can get I 'd buy. I have orders is @ 11.83 since before the open. Got more NGD and AGQ though.

  40. As a result of our gold miner thread this weekend, I did buy a little lotto ticket sized position in Cream Minerals, and Golden Goliath. But overall, I'm actually a small net seller for the 4th trading day in a row. Just feeling the need to get a little smaller in here. Same on my oils.

  41. I love the FUBMs. I go to a meeting for 90 minutes and return to see an attack and counter-punch.

  42. This comment has been removed by the author.

  43. Mammoth

    Not to pick on you, but if it had been me I'd have said " I don't feel right paying you just $200. How about $230?" She would have been thrilled and called you first as soon as she gets more coins sorted. You would been her new favorite person, invited for Thanksgiving dinner.

  44. NICK, ( in response to Turd's "Hey, can anyone help this guy?" post ):

    I have, since 2001, relied on two sources for overall strategy with our liquid assets. Those two are James Grant and William Fleckenstein - these guys have impeccable street cred as well as "let's do lunch" kind of connections to the John Paulsons of our world.

    Fleck recommends buying metals from Kathy Derbes. His website says:
    "Kathy Derbes: For those wishing to buy physical gold contact her at (877)-718-8777."

    On March 30 one of his subscribers said:
    As a charter member I just want to say thank you for sharing your good friend and precious metals dealer Kathy Derbes contact information.

    I just completed my first transaction with her and to say it went flawlessly is truly an understatement. Kathy is so professional and explains all your options and caveats in as much detail as you require to make informed decisions.

    You can be sure I am recommending her to anyone I know who is in the market for precious metals as well as for any future transactions."

    Derbes was first used by Fleckenstein when she worked for Miles Franklin. After she set up her own shop his recommendation switched from Miles Franklin to Derbes.

  45. This comment has been removed by the author.

  46. It sounds to me like if you do right by this little old lady, you could offer to come over and help her sort all the stuff out. You could buy the whole shebang.

  47. Hey Magis00 - I was coming back to help you, and let you know that maybe we are being a little more resilient, and a little less relentless, but that it would pass, and find that DPH has done it for me. If I were a dip buyer, I would figure it is just a pick your dip moment - but waiting for 38? And the miners are never good trackers of silver - they are lottery tickets. Tickets with a lot of information printed on them, but lottery tickets. Dilutions, CEO changes, environmental disasters, strikes, drill results, Bre-X - So we mustn't expect a direct correlation.

  48. Yep Fortinbras, when Northern Rock shut it shut, but people who got 10,20,30,100k or whatever to invest in physical sometime cant/dont want to keep it under bed and we're back to discussing where to stack yer stash again...

    Personally I reckon you pays ya money and takes ya chance, be it in your hand or in a vault... maybe some in hand, maybe some in the vault, your choice for your situation.

  49. Mammoth could always call back and say he came home figured out the spot for the coins he actually received and send the difference. This would also go along way in the eyes of the seller. He then could say if you get anymore you would like to sell please call me and I will always give you spot. You have a customer for life.

  50. As Turd says - just read the update, and there we are - resilient trending towards relentless, today's silver weather forecast. Miners still uncertain, as a low pressure zone hovers over them.

  51. My brother in law had his mom's little box of coins that he needed to sell, to split with his sister. Didn't know a thing about coin shops and didn't know where to start. I offered to go through the whole shitty mess. Some nice stuff, but a lot of complete crap too. I paid him $700 for the whole mess. This was last year around the holidays. Truth be told, maybe I paid a tad more than I needed to. But he was thrilled. Both with the money and that the ugly chore was done with. I got some nice stuff, and sold the crap at the coin shop immediately. Look at silver from then to now. Everybody is happy.

  52. Just throwing this out there as a nickname for us followers of Turd...How about Turd's Herd???

    I can just see it on coffee mugs, bumperstickers, T-shirts etc.
    We probably would get some funny looks (ya'think?) but who cares.

    What do you think?
    Turd is the Silver Shepard of his PM flock etc.
    We could have some fun with this

  53. As to the storage question, I would say two things. One, yes I agree it is only truly physical, the way we normally use the word on this blog, if you can go and rub it. Two, it is not practical for many, many people to possess the quantity of physical silver that they can afford and so an alternative is a called for. My call is that the bigger the vault, within reason, the less likely it is to close its doors. Hence my liking the Canadian Mint - it would be an enormous political disaster for the mint to lock its doors, but a local bank? Piece o'cake.

  54. Please resist...the Turd Hurder comments.

    Word ver...hyladie.
    So hello to the ladies is what it's telling me.

  55. Three new powerful aftershocks hit northeast japan. Just in.

  56. Under some pressure from the missus, I showed her the whole box of sterling spoons this weekend, and the box on my dresser full of silver. Honestly, it was only probably 15% of the whole pile but she was already freaking out about just having that stuff sitting around. We have a standing agreement that I won't tell her the total so she doesn't worry, but she's starting to worry anyway. The fireproof safe that nobody could possibly find doesn't impress her one little bit.

  57. Agreed though, when it comes to storage, silver is ridiculous. That's why whenever i see a post about someone saving nickels or copper pennies I think "Really? Really? How much space do you have? And a forklift?"

  58. Winker,

    What makes you think you will not be taxed 35% by the time you are eligible to "not pay taxes and penalties."

    What makes you think that in a difficult environment, your retirement accounts will be yours to have when everyone else's handout program is insufficient? That's not how it's gone down elsewhere.

    What makes you think that in a difficult environment, early withdrawal will still be an option you can take and that you won't be forced to "invest" in treasuries BY LAW to ensure you don't lose like all those poor people who went belly up in 20xx? Are you secure enough financially that you can lose your 401K's value and access in emergency?

    Take your money. Take the hit. Enjoy getting all of it back in a few months of silver gains. December's first breaking of 30 vs today's 41+. If these were capital gains, you'd be hit 25%... but by waiting you are eating 35% on those earnings. Why give 10%-20% of your gains away? Now if you think your money is completely safe anywhere but in your own hands(physical) and private brokerage "non-advantaged" account.... keep the 401K.

    The only real advantage I've seen brought up re: an ira/401K is that you can't get sued out of its value. The rest is optimism on legislation and taxation 20, 40 years down the road. It'd be hard to get sued out of your physical too though.

  59. I am actually a bit relieved that we didn't get another blow-up Monday. Lock in a nicer support level, perhaps a buying opportunity for those with dry powder.

    Crazy days are coming, I'd rather have more time to buy and more stability when buying.

  60. Anybody have any thoughts re: my previous question about "crash" scenario bottoms? If silver for some reason crashed, what price would it crash to? I think even with a crash, it would be tough to dip below $25. Lately, the "crash bottom" looks more and more like $34-$36 range.

    Any thougts?


  61. @ JoeKa

    You are from Japan right? I don't see any news on it but just figured out you would know before news on websites. How big where they? Do you know anything more?

    On an off note, just found this interesting website. I am such a beginner that I have never come across this simple yet informative tool. You can change the name of the ticker at the end of the website to look at different companies.

    Here is the one I just pulled up for Revett.

    And whoever mentioned Orko Silver, I think if it breaks out past 3$ it will really get going. I took a small position in it and continue to do more diligence. Looks like it has some good connections with PAAS. It's investor relations is pretty straightforward, telling you why they are undervalued.

    Insane to digest everything going on these days :)

    One thing at a time.

  62. What happens to Silver and Gold if QE3 is not done and they raise rates? Obviously the fed is screwed either way, print money, cause stagflation, raise rates and eventually default on the treasuries. I just want to be prepared and know what will happen if the fed raises rates this summer with no QE3.

  63. "Insane to digest everything going on these days :)"

    Oh lordy Scott, you said a mouthful there!

    It's a full time job, and I already have a full time job, at least until tax day!

  64. Al J says Mommar won't step down. Will continue to fight.

    Long oil?
    Long VIX?

  65. Food for thought today from Santa at

    Dear CIGAs,

    Thinking back to the following post from April 5th:

    Expect the Round Number Effect at $1500 for gold, but less severe than the battle at $1400. Angel $1650 is quickly coming into focus.

    If we have learned one thing, it is not to get short term focused on this market. Stay focused on what is important and not the noise.

    Think for a moment if Armstrong and Alf are right on gold. That would mean the following prices are coming:


  66. Well, I was in on Revitt for the long haul anyway. Corrections suck.

  67. 22f2,

    It's impossible to predict where it could fall to, but the most likely stop for a silver crash would be around $32.87 or so. Buying silver puts already are we? I'd wait a little longer if I were you.


  68. Hey scott. I'm based in Singapore. Saw the post on Google news. Nikkei 225 taking a hit...again.,0,2410014.story

  69. Scottj88 Goldmans copper outlook has affected revett it seems.

  70. pzg took it in the nutsack today also

  71. On Revett:

    It's classic. As soon as a spec goes bad, it becomes a "long term hold".

    Not making fun. Been there and done that myself. I feel your pain.

  72. Jeepster. What is inlcuded in your disaster scenario?

    I'm not worried about falling back to $17 as long as demand continues to outpace supply.

    There is a small but growing threat to the price and that is the 1% (us Turdites) who have accumulated silver in our possession or through eg Sprott phys. Should SHTF this will begin to be released. There is enough of that type of inventory to make a difference. Couple that with a downturn in demand (during the disaster) and I can envision 3 months below $25.

    word ver: hater. No, really, I'm bullish!

  73. @ JoeKa... bit of a downpour earlier in Singapore, eh? ;)

  74. Hate to throw a wet blanket on the crowd, but silver is all well and good, but gold is the real thing. Just sayin...

    Don't hate me. We're still on the same team.

  75. Re: Buying Gold & Silver in OKC.
    APMEX is a little pricey as well as the local tax issues has made them a no go for me.
    Flying Eagle Coins is an honest shop for smaller purchases.
    He may find better traction for his fiat online at Bullion Direct, Gainsville Coins or Provident Metals. Another thought is bars have less of a premium than coins and will get his stack higher for less $ as well as take up less room when storing.
    Personally I'd advise staying out of gold bullion/coins at least until the GSR drops closer to $30 or lower.

  76. @Happy... Thanks. So you actually believe we could see prices below $25 in a SHTF scenario? Interesting (and no, I don't have specific SHTF scenario in mind, just more speculating on possible "worst case" scenarios)

    It's my opinion that TPTB and BigBanks began adding to their own "long" silver positions around $25, so that is why I think any crash would be unlikely to pass that dollar amount.


  77. How do you folks cope with the stress of knowing that our world order is about to end?

    I find myself anxious on a daily basis, especially last night when silver hit $42.

    What is your coping mechanism?

  78. Someday, I'll hardly have any silver left. I'll have some 90% coin, those chunky little A-Mark bars, some older Mexico Libertads, and pretty much nothing else. And I'll be sitting there thinking that my whole foray into silver has allowed me to have more gold than I would have had otherwise.

    I'm planning on a happy happy day, not doom and gloom.

  79. Eric,

    I've shown my wife a couple of coins, but she suffers from PSTD and wouldn't sleep for 2 weeks if she knew I had more than that. She'd be worried that someone would break in, and it wouldn't matter if I had it in a safe made of impenetrable, undrillable, unmeltable, indestructible hull material equipped with a cloaking device ... so collecting is sort of a private hobby of mine ...

  80. @chad...
    I have been doing a lot of thinking about this too. Ultimately, a drop in QE "paper" investing would hurt silver a bit, but only temporarily. The "physical demand" is way too strong right now.

    Ultimately, I conclude that with or without QE3, trend is STILL bullish for silver. Ultimately, this is a currency collapse.


  81. Jeepster. I should clarify that I mean what $25 means today in purchasing power. Yes I can imagine the price going below that. Serious gaming by TPTB will not stop and a disaster scenario will be opportunity for them.

    Eric is right it will be a better time to be holding gold.

  82. Hey DC! Yeah...not a big pour but still helped in cooling things down a bit.

  83. What is up with oil? $110 is so last week. It must be cold fusion.

    (Get out of here Eric#1. We all hate you.)

  84. One more question for everyone:

    What is your "sell price" for silver?
    In other words, what price would silver have to shoot to today in order for you to consider selling some physical?

    My price would be ~100$
    (and needless to say if it shot that high today I'd probably not sell the entire stash ;)


  85. reefman,

    What makes you think the world is going to end? My coping mechanism is realizing that the world is not going to end. The world will change sure. But it always has, does, and will continue to do so. If you're thinking it's all going to be Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome or The Road then I believe you will be disappointed, or should I say pleased with how things will turn out.


  86. @Titus - I think Crude is taking a mild hit because of the downgrade of US growth forecast by the IMF.

  87. Well, if one applies Fib numbers on silver, from bottom in Aug10 (17.50), to yesterday's 41... Here are major pullback points I'd probably see in a major stock correction/panic:

    38.2%: 32.00 (Not much support here)
    50.0%: 29.20 (moderate support)
    61.8%: 26.50 (last major intermediate low... strong support)

    In another major stock panic, I'd bet my money on 50% or 62% retracement. IMO. Then it'd bounce back fast, and surpass highs, as people started using their heads.

  88. reef

    Coping is tough. We talk about it every once in a while. Bottom line is you are doing what you can. In spite of spouses, relatives, friends, coworkers, everybody. It adds to the pressure knowing you are not just trying to save yourself, but the whole damn clan.

    Don't let the bastards drag you down. Someday, they'll all be coming to you looking for help. And YOU WILL HELP THEM. ESPECIALLY FAMILY. Because that's what it's all about. BLOOD, my friend. BLOOD. My son and daughter, I'd give them the whole damn stash right now. Personally, I could live in a cave, eating dirt and canned bacon, as long as I knew my kids were alright.

    Sorry to get all weird on you guys, but that's how I feel.

  89. @Sir Woody:
    My calculations sync with yours nicely. Thanks.
    What price would induce you to sell physical today?


  90. @22f24756-405d-11e0-b5b3-000bcdcb5194:

    My sell price for silver is:
    Monetary craziness in USA/Europe ends. When QE ends forever, US debt begins to shrink, deficits turn into positive... THEN it's definitely time to sell silver/gold into whatever new currency replaces the FRN$.

  91. Eric,
    Been watching Revett for awhile. Thought I had missed it and was considering buying today on the dip. Is there negative news out on it?
    Or is this an opportunity?
    Just added to core position of GPL and SLW.

  92. reefman,

    Used to get a little overwhelmed after reading about the coming days then learned to take a time out, weekend off, spend time friends & family, hobbies/interests and enjoy living in the moment during this speckle of time that I'm on this planet.

    I also find education friends & family or anyone for that matter really helps. Increasing # of conversations at the gym - interestingly enough, although a small #, most of these people immigrated to Canada and understand the importance of gold & silver, although they haven't purchased the physical - yet.

    It's frustrating sometimes when attempting to educate a friend only to be labelled as the guy that's out further and further into left field. But then someone else gets it & that's a very good feeling.

    Planning for the collapse also helps - nice to cross off items on the to do list.

  93. Hey Reefman
    Two men enter. One man leaves.

  94. this a "raid"? I can't tell!

  95. Yuk has it right. Even in the deep dark depths of the crash of '08, I was thinking, "the world is only going to end once. And this ain't it."

  96. I think it might be time to get read to BTFD...

    Captcha - discozon

  97. Eww. Lots of stops just got taken out...nasty waterfall, NASTY!!!

  98. Art

    No idea on Revett. Just saying I think I've seen these emotions before.

  99. 1st leg down! Geez that was fast.

  100. Art ..its Goldman.It closed its copper trade.

  101. Guess we had to expect some kind of correction ha ha, that run last week going into early this morning was ridiculous. BTFD may now commence, already rebounding nicely!

  102. dammit I was almost margin called :)))

  103. re: waterfall

    don't buy it (unless you are btfd) ;)
    DowJones plummeting right now as well.
    This is a "paper loss" we're seeing.
    Wonder what's spooked the horse here?


  104. BTFD...easy money! The beatdowns are turning out to be "instant profit chances". He he.



    Thank GAWD!! We are finally getting a serious dip in silver's price. I was beginning to think that the dip would never come.

    OK, how low do you folks think the price will go during the current EE raid? I am guessing it will dip no further than $39.50, and that it will probably not even dip below $40.25.

    Does anyone else have some thoughts on this matter?

    -- Paul D. Bain

  107. reefman,

    one point I've missed in my last post, but trust it was implied: finding this blog, TF & this great community has also helped :)

  108. With 41 broken, the next support is the Friday Globex low near 40.50 and then 40.20.
    Be patient. Let me remind you that we are still at $40+.

  109. @torp: you were almost margin called on that?
    What kinda leverage are you on man? :P

  110. Maybe this is where we go back and have the $40 fight we never had.

  111. @ Reefman

    Undoubtedly, the current world order is a mess and will will cause stress throughout each of our individual journey's of becoming peaceful with life. Unfortunately, there is no simple answer that will fit for everyone, as we all have our unique problems and perspectives. It is for this reason I like to look at the world away from my personal well-being, as it is a form of meditation to just look at the facts by learning to control your mind.

    Controlling your mind and training it to help you rather than haunt you is man's greatest challenge.

    I personally draw serenity through understanding that humanity at this current moment in time on a universal space-time scale is nothing but a needle in an endless haystack. Understanding that there is a MUCH bigger thing in life going on around us, and we are all just explorers of the future. We tend to take it for granted that we have the power to do whatever we want in the world, as we as a society have lost our ways in exchange for comforts and blissful ignorance. The endless distraction from this understanding is the thing that humanity back. Always remember, perception is the name of the game for the powers that be. It is unwise to aide them by being fearful of their tactics and what consequences may come as a result of fixing the problem.

    A lot of people, especially those who may doubt the unlimited power in the world, I ask you to step out of the system that we know today. Think past the gold,silver,jp morgan, blythe, oil, politics, discrimination, and the daily worries that leave many of the world's inhabitants paralyzed to act (it's all psychology & sociology). Think on a historical scale of how far the "people" have come, even as hopeless as it sometimes seems. We are truly in an information revolution.

    In short, always look big picture is what I do. Looking at the news causes the insanity (through understanding the wrongs that are being committed). Being apart of the solution is speaking the truth and doing your best to make the right life decisions. Understand that knowing this information is a true blessing, as it will be the most important subject-area to be read up on to deal with the future conditions.

    Fear is self-made.

    With all that said... it is still a struggle sometimes. Realize the opportunity you have as an individual through the knowledge you are acquiring. Life changing knowledge can change your life for the future :)

  112. word verification: pub doush I must not comment.

  113. Turd,

    BC from Singapore. Do you use cycle theory and astro cycles as part of your analysis as well ?

    Nice works that you have done here.

  114. Titus,

    Well said. The problem now is that we have a whole lot more down side than up side. For those who haven't traded silver/gold stocks before, they fall ten times faster than they rise. You will be cleaned out if you margined up without stops.


  115. @JoeKa,

    My greed failed me
    I saved my EUR account by transfering all funds from USD account.
    I just have not expected this raid today, I thougt the bitch is morally dead for some time.

  116. 1. some people on here post too much. keep your therapy diaries to yourself pls. it fucks up the signal/noise ratio on the boards.

    2. to the younglings: how is that day trading working out? the expensive lesson continues...

  117. Eric #1,
    Titus was kidding. We all love you, man.
    (Although Eric #2 would be a more appropriate pseudonym on this blog. )

  118. ScottJ88

    You are just so cute. An incredible intellectual capacity for such a young man. Well read, and well spoken. BUT, I can't wait for you to get a few trips around the block. You can think things through, to the nth degree, but in the real world, emotions make a mess out of the whole works.

    THis is not a slam. Keep doing what you are doing. It's what you can do at this point. But I can't wait to see a seasoned, bruised, battered, and deep fried ScottJ88. THAT will be something that I will bookmark every single day!


  119. I'm considering adding some SLW at 45.10 if it goes that low.

  120. @torp: pls pls pls be careful at these levels on leverage. The risk is extremely high. I'm on 1:10 myself and am comfortable with the risk-reward with a relatively deep margin pool.

    I have been to the dark side bro. It ain't pretty...but I did learn a lot about myself as a trader, emotions, discipline. Sometimes I do revisit those lessons on occasion but with ever decreasing severity. For this, I thank my God for helping me through.

    Trade safe buddy.

  121. viking-

    Day trading is working fine for me, things looked like they were stalling so I sold AGQ at 267.75, and now I'm just watching the waterfall.

  122. No news out on Revett...

    Just the market...
    Anybody's guess on why the selloff, as for mine, I don't have one...

    It has some support at ~$5.32 and a bunch more support at ~$5.20 (RVMID US Price). I would find it absurd for it to drop below these levels, but then again the market doesn't care about what I think, that much I know.

    Who knows, but nothing major from what I see, and would expect this to be back into the $6.00 and above levels soon again. I guess from what I read that it may take until the end of April for the AMEX listing, as they are filing their e-shares as the final step.

    Always do your own DD,
    I am by no means a seasoned veteran.

  123. This comment has been removed by the author.

  124. What are chances that this beat down reflects postion limits tomorrow from CFTC meeting? Also, like TF said above, we're about $40 and knew there would be a fight. Still sucks though.

  125. Viking,

    Love your pleasant disposition. I'm actually up considerably for the day on all my trades. Only my EXK -- stopped out-- for a small loss turned out badly. I made some nice coin on LNG. It's my core holdings that are dragging me down. You know, the ones I bought and held.


  126. To Scott's 'defence'. If only half the young people I know share the same drive, developing vision and passion as him, the world will have far less aimless young adults losing their values and identities becoming a liability to their society and family.

  127. I would be (and am) buying copper with two hands here and all through the summer if we get our usual seasonal slump. I'm more bullish on copper than silver at this point which is saying something. At least if you're into silver get a play with good copper exposure to boot.


  128. No comments about being nicknamed Turd's Herd?
    The Silver Shepard nickname for TF?
    Oh well.

    If this is as bad a beat back as we get given that oil dropped $2.50 or so and the PO$X remains where it is then I think we are in really good shape going forward.

    None of this small drop off concerns me at all as I see it as a BTFD opportunity we are looking for.

  129. I can think of one poster who posts too often, no problemo.

  130. Continue to hold XAG, waiting to add at either 39.50 or 41.90.

  131. Hung out with a buddy of mine that works for JPM over the weekend. The conversation turned to economics at some point, and I explained the prevailing theories regarding PMs, we argued deflation/inflation, etc.

    At some point I mentioned the Wicked Witch and her sterling reputation on the internet. He told me that he had personally been chewed out by her before, and agreed with that prevailing theory, though he did have nice things to say about her... non-fungible assets?

    Sometimes I almost forget that these people exist in the real world and aren't cartoon villains.

  132. @Yukon: you may have mentioned this before, but i'd be grateful if you could suggest me some plays for Copper.

    Options, miners, leveraged plays, etc.

    Am thinking of getting into Copper.

    Tks heaps!

  133. Hammer into the close to 40.20 and BTFD seems likely

  134. Viking,
    Is this your blog or Turds? There are plenty of other blogs or boards you can go to if you don't want to be part of the community. I don't see how your negative and pointless post is any more useful than the "noise" from us regulars chatting who "post too much", I wasn't aware there was a limit.

    We respect Turd, his posts and his sharing of information, but in the 3-4 months I've been posting here not once has he ever said free speech isn't allowed, with the exception of rare arguments and wild conspiracy theories that sometimes get taken too far. His call, not yours. Maybe you could start your own blog and attract silver robots that only talk spot price.

    PS-The day trading is working out great for most of us from what I read here. I'm guess you don't have much luck in that department.

  135. DPH

    Have you added anymore SLW or thinking about it on this pullback?

    p.s. I like Turd's Herd

  136. @ Viking

    Everyone starts somewhere. Sounds like they are disciplined so why hate on em?

    Agreed on the diaries though. That is the sewing circle delegation. I don't read there stuff.

    Chin up. its going to be alright.

  137. DPH - I must be being clueless about the herd comment - can you explain?

    Look at gold - 1466 - in the original post Turd mentions support at 1465 being important - and we are getting it. Silver is giving me the willies, but then I remember that we blasted through 40 and are still at 40.60ish. And my package from First Majestic just arrived - nothing seems to beat that feeling.

  138. SSK

    like someone said recently, (DocJ?) they tend to go "up the stairs, and out the window"

  139. Eric, Chin,

    Looks like my above post came out poorly-written, as I let the sellers set whatever price they car comfortable with and do not dicker with them. As in this case, the seller stated her price; when we switched from the dimes to halves, she said, “$220, but I’ll let you have these for $200.” “Are you o.k. with that?” I asked. She was.

    As to insisting to pay spot – is that what APMEX, Gainesville Coins and the other buyers do? I think not.

    Not somebody to rip anybody off – when I came home and examined the coins I saw there was an extra dime in there, so I called and said I would pay her for this next time. But Chin you are right; I will turn her on to the coinflation website and offer to pay spot next time.


    Word Verification: ration
    (as in: Supplies will be rationed)

  140. I see >1500 contracts in the minutes of the take down.
    That's 7.5M oz, or 312 Tons of Silver.

    That is one big hammer.....

  141. atlee - there = their. See, I do read your posts.

  142. If you want copper, just go big or go home. Buy FCX and don't screw around with little "story stocks". "/

  143. $40.60 sure held up pretty well at the close. There's definitely buyers out there. I'm seeing 1200 contracts in the last minute with less than a nickel of price drop.

  144. Mammoth

    Just sayin..... sounds like she's got a lot more to sell. If you get on her good side you could buy the whole kaboodle at a price you both would be happy with.

  145. Thanks Eric, George, and Scott,
    gonna hold off on the Revett.
    Just added to my EXK position.

  146. Sold off one of my silver miners this morning, looking to do just a little more research on some of these Copper plays that were recommended over the weekend and probably add two of them. Thanks to everyone that threw names out over the past two days while copper was being discussed, I've found quite a few that I really like!

    I can't remember who recommended it, but a rare earth play that was name-dropped on here this weekend is up 10% today, nice call whoever mentioned Quest Rare..think it was Chin or sumo, sorry I can't remember who exactly it was. Still doing some DD on that one too.

  147. JoeKa,

    The only copper play I'm going to list here is Copper Fox Metals and only because I bought some more today, so I'm not just talking a strong book here. There are a ton of great copper plays out there. You just need to dive in and start looking. My only recommendation would be to know your regional tolerances (ie. think twice about investing in a place you don't know crap about) and try to get a mixed play. Get a Cu/Ag/Au play if you like precious metals or a Cu/Ni/Co if you want to play towards scarcity.

    If you're buying timed plays right now you owe it to yourself to become familiar with the seasonality of some commodities. There's a good chance that someone who holds cash till July is going to get a much better deal than someone buying today.


  148. Observe the volume on the silver chart these two days. Looks like EE launched the raid on Friday at 14:30 EST when the price was at 40.70, and you can see the sudden sell volume on the chart. They might have <40 as the target but for whatever reason that raid was snapped at 15:00EST when silver was at 40.45 by a counter strike with a buying volume overwhelming the sell volume in the previous half hour. The momentum of the counter strike sent it to 41.9 on Sunday evening.

    I still think EE was planning a <40 move so we'll see if 40.45 holds. If not then a move to 39.5 is likely. There's a slight possibility of 37.8 as well in this correction. They key, I believe, is still the backwardation in the physical market. As long as it's still there this correction will be short-lived.

  149. Let's see if we follow COMEX with a GLOBEX FUBM.

  150. Mamm

    Don't pay spot. 90% coin in a fair market, not a bubbly market, goes for about 10% under melt down spot. It costs money to melt the stuff down.

  151. I have support lines at 40.63, 40.53, 40.46, 40.26, 40.23 and 40.12.

    Resistance lines at 41.39, 42.15, 42.88 and 43.12.

    Now 40.53 is exerting its power to repel price away. Price vibrating at 40.63 level.

  152. This comment has been removed by the author.

  153. @Eric: Thanks for the recommend on FCX. Have taken note and will track this.

  154. Gold is really holding its own, and my stocks are fairly flat, which on a "down" day would be remarkable. But this hardly counts as a down day. What are we JPM's trading desk? Paul is right - that is an incredible volume, and still the price is 40.60ish - so Rui 40.45 is definitely holding for the moment - in fact, I don't see that we got down that far on the forex chart.

  155. @Yukon: Thanks for getting me started.

  156. Someone earlier asked about an exit point or a dollar level when they would sell their stash.

    I am personally of the opinion that it is old-paradigm thinking to consider your exit point in "dollar" terms. For example, if $100 is your sell point, do you still sell if inflation has rampaged to take out half the dollar's buying power?

    I believe the correct course is to think of your PM's and related holdings in relation to other assets and tangible items you would like to own.

    For example, my exit point is when I can swap an acceptable percentage of my holdings for a house, a car, land ownership, provisions (in an emergency) or other tangible items. What the dollar level is and how much it fluctuates is mostly irrelevant... it is about buying power.

  157. @Justin: I gotta sort through those threads as well to dig out some names for DD.

  158. Oh - this is looking good Timer - you sound like my hubby watching ticks and drawing lines. But they are often really informative.

  159. Yea, backwardation.

    Can you imagine entering a contract with someone to deliver silver to you in, say, two years? Who would enter such an agreement?

    Silver is in contango out until DEC 2011. After that the curve reverses into backwardation.

    Wouldn't this be a market wager as to how long before widespread comex default?

  160. well, well, well. ca commence.

  161. I strongly suggest ZH's most recent silver article. Confirms my beliefs for some time.

    Stephen..I'm dying to but don't have any "clear" capital to do so today. Damn!!!

    XTY...Herd=like flock or herd of animals (which we are) in a nice way.

    Pekar...I was suggesting we NOt use the term.
    I was a union steamfitter/welder and a residential plumber at one point before my skilled trades carreer. So I know what turd herder means in that sense.
    Wasn't aware of any racist connotations so I apologize to anyone who took offense possibly.

    Please...lets not refer to ourselves as Turd Herders (please?) Yuk!

    I do like the Silver Shepard as far as TF goes. Maybe he's not ok with that.

  162. Apples

    I believe it was Marc Faber who said recently (paraphrasing from memory now) "I no longer consider the US dollar to be a valid unit of account."

    About the most flamethrowing, anarchistic, revolutionary thing I've read in a long time.

    Ties in with what you are saying.

  163. Apples - good point. I fall into the dollar trap thinking all the time. We are trained to do so.

    Titus - that is an interesting observation. I think you are right - it would show the collective decision making - no trust after next Dec.

  164. I passed adding SLW at 45.10 because the option prices were not what I expected. Will continue to watch for now.

  165. Stephen,

    Didn't have the stones to buy more of any silver miner this morning. Almost stopped out of half my SLW. That was damn close. I'm liking the bounce though. Might add some if SLW gets back to 45.35.


  166. ZH has a article about Goldman Sucks selling off their top 5 long positions. Probably the reason for the pullback in certain areas that we are seeing today.

    It seems likely they have a advance warning what the CFTC will be tomorrow in advance. If thats the case, it sounds positive for PM's going forward.
    Maybe they wanted to unwind their position while they can on their terms today instead of having to after a negative decision tomorrow?
    Thats my take on it. I could be wrong.

  167. first time trading .. thought i would try silver miners (gotta pick something right?) .. last tues spent ~ $23k evenly split on:

    by friday was up ~2k .. but today sold all ending up $500 in green.

    i learned a few things.. don't be greedy (or take some profit) .. and glimpsed possibility of selling and then BTFD .. we'll see how that works out : )

    but thanks all and especially Turd for the shoulder to lean on in this experiment!

  168. Anybody else notice how GG has withstood today's raid like a champ? It's been a star performer of late.

  169. TF is getting the word out:

  170. For me, the conditions to consider selling gold and silver, will be contingent upon when

    1. Dow/Gold ratio approaches 1
    2. Gold/Silver ratio approaches 16:1

    Also by time wise, I think Silver is in a new 18 years cycle off the Oct 2008 low. By this estimation, its next 18 year low will only be (2008+18) in 2026. The mid way point, the 9 years cycle has it as (2008+9) 2017.

    Assuming a neutral translation effect of the silver cycle, this will be the earliest time window for Silver to fall. But I think this scenario is unlikely. More likely it will right translate.

    If silver cycle right translates, the final top will only come between 2017 and 2026. Likely to be closer to 2026 due to the bullish bias effects, as we are all witnessing now.

  171. Apples... I don't think in terms of dollars either. It was Jim Rogers who got me to think of, "What are the undervalued items in the under valued asset class? Buy those, hold/play them until you can identify the NEW undervalued asset class (say at 30 year lows)and then transfer assets from one to the other."

    In that way, the currency is just part of the exchange from one asset class to another... not a "sell A" for "curreny B" then figure out what the new "A" is.

    One thing I did learn about 10 years ago from true, self-made high net worth individuals (theese 3 guys were all worth a minimum of $300M each) was that everyone they knew either made their money in real estate or transferred their wealth into real estate.

    I agree with them and am therefore on the "Mike Maloney path" (and MM had nothing to do with these 3 guys... I just read Maloney 2-3 years ago) which is... ride the metal up, then move it into real estate. The "nice" thing about that plan is that we will likely hit the "metal high" just about the same time we finally hit the "real estate bottom"... sometime in the next 12-36 months for me.

    For me, I'm hanging on to my physical pretty much no matter what. As for my "paper trading," I've been doing that in metal too, but instead of using those profits to buy more physical, I've used it to buy and outfit land.

    Bottom line is that everyone should have at least a thumbnail "exit strategy" or you will eventually be caught holding the bag. This will end someday (not soon) in terms of "up." The question is not what is the best next junior minor (but not a bad one) but rather, what is the next best asset class and what are my indicators for getting into that and when do they cross my PM exit strategy? That number might be $45/ounce silver for one person while $90/ounce for another and the beauty is that BOTH people can be right and the $45 guy won't cry that he/she didn't hang on until $90.

    Just my two bits.

  172. @SSK,

    Turd postulated that Gold might see 1480 overnight.

    Seems like an intentionally positioning move to mount the assault upward later on.

  173. Congrats to all the day traders who are up. I'm sure ya'll are about to join the long list of retired investors who made their fortune playing roulette. My advice would be to keep trying to time those daily squiggles. Fantastic long term strategy. But don't take my word for it. Take JPMs and the legion of hedgie algorithms out there trying to help you be the best you can be!

    What's the mantra of Vegas casinos--if a player is up, just keeping him playing. Sooner or later, the law of averages will show up.

    Present company excluded of course. The daytraders are smarter than laws or averages and are no doubt onto a new and faster way to make money.

    Some may not like my disposition--I'm actually doing the younglings a favor, to save them the expensive lesson. How many people investing for fifteen or more years daytrade extensively? Why would that be?

  174. Overall I agree with the Mike Maloney strategy of ending up in real estate. The risk there is confiscatory property tax rates and/or eminent domain concerns.

    Property tax can be alleviated by owning property for rent, multiple dwellings or a multi-family structure.

    As always, I poke holes in assumptions. The above assumes there are more renters than spaces for rent, tilting the supply/demand equation in favor of the property owner. Not sure about that. As this thing drags on, I think we'll see the US birth rate drop. Who wants the additional financial burden and limited hopes enough to spawn the next generation. Probably less and less every year until sunlight can be seen again. Just my take; I see it as a big risk to over-owning property to make out w/rents.