The Witch's Claw

In a simple repeat of a pattern we've seen often here, overnight The Cartel reached up and clawed back the gains made late Friday and early Sunday evening. Here's just one of several Monday morning posts where we've discussed this phenomenon:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/03/stormy-monday.html

So, after reaching a high of $41.98 overnight, silver was dragged back down this morning, all the way to $40.92. Not surprisingly, it found nice support at that level and I'd expect $41 to be a nice floor throughout the day.

We discussed last evening that gold seemed hesitant to move much past 1478 and its now taking a breather, too. Again, I'd have expected support near 1465 and we got it. Even if that level fails, 1462 and then 1458 will attract significant buying. I will be one of the buyers should it happen.

Since peace, love and harmony have broken out all over the Middle East, oil has moved a little lower. Again, I don't put too much stick into the oil charts because price is almost being exclusively driven by geo-political events. As is always in that case, all bets are off. Gold can go $100 higher or significantly lower based upon actual events that the charts can't predict. For now, in the absence of news, WTI should find buyers between 111.25 and 111.50.

Following on that theme, in the absence of news, moves in the POSX will continue to drive PM price. The rollover last night coincided somewhat to a small dead-cat-bounce in the buck. The "rally" died right where you expect and now the POSX is once again moving downward. Watch last Friday's lows very closely. A drop through 75 on the JUNE (about 74.75 on the cash Kitco chart) would signal an accelerating decline toward 74.25.

OK, that's it. More later. TF


11:20 EDT UPDATE:
Just a quick silver chart with levels to watch.