Friday, April 1, 2011

Three-Minute Charts

Below are 3-minute charts of the action today in The Big Four. No commentary needed.

First, here's our lovely and wonderful silver:
Next, here's big brother, gold, Not quite all the way back but up quite a ways from the low:
Crude was hit with two subsequent blasts (remember, there are no coincidences)...the BLSBS and "news" of a ceasefire proposal in Libya. Uhhhh....not so much:
And lastly, my personal favorite. This chart will keep me smiling all weekend:

I'll have a full post and recap either late this evening or early tomorrow.
Enjoy your Friday. Smile and lift an adult beverage. Be happy. Have fun. TF


  1. Finally dipped my toes in...other than holding a bit of physical and lots of SLW and AXU...picked up some weekly 38 calls on SLV this am...


  2. Wow, going to be one long swig on the end of a beer bottle tonight. Mind blowing week, indeed. They through everything at us. Fuckers.

    What a joy it is to see my SLW in the green, if only momentarily.

    Turd, this site came to life just as it was needed. Santa seems to have grown more obtuse by the day. The need for more straightforward explanation is filled by your site. Cheers!


  3. Thanks, SK. That was the idea behind it. I'm glad you feel that way.

  4. Just checked, and check what he says:

    "Top Five Monthly Average months!

    1. January 1980 - $39.28
    2. March 2011 - $35.85
    3. February 1980 - $35.60
    4. February 2011 - $31.04
    5. December 2010 - $29.44"

    Impressive.. obviosly this figures represent NOMINAL (he explains that later in the article), but that's a great highlight!

    Take that BM !!

  5. Barry Ritholtz posted a damn good Calvin and Hobbes today about the economy...good for a laugh even if you're not a fan of the strip, which I'm not usually:

  6. A suggestion I read from someone on this comment board a long time ago was one that makes me very happy.

    Everyday wherever I go, I bring a 1oz silver maple leaf along with me in my pocket. You never know when it can be a good educational tool (busting it out when talking about silver has a high success rate of interest), it provides entertainment (why twiddle with a pen when you can with silver bullion), and just feels good to walk around with sound money in my pocket.

    Thank you for whoever suggested it, fantastic idea. I have had some fair share of fun conversations around my little 2010 silver maple leaf.

    Also, when you do this you precondition those who you talk to about what real money is, slowly seeping into their subconscious!

  7. @ a

    Maybe this graph will help.

  8. Scott I did the same thing earlier this week, with one of the nice Morgan Silver Dollars I picked up last weekend.

    There is definitely a ‘Wow-Factor;’ you can see this in the eyes of some of the people you show your Silver to.


  9. I'm beginning to think that the FED and the guys running power games in the government are mostly satanists. Bernanke was trained as an orthodox Jew so he most certainly will be going straight to hell after consorting with this junk for so many,many years and telling so many,many serious lies.

  10. Scott I bring my silver bill fold, silver key chain, silver watch, wherever I go.

  11. Oh boy. Silver rocketship right now :)

  12. Decisions, decisions.... book AGQ profits today or let it ride over the weekend? Any opinions?

  13. That comment stuck with me, too! I've had my 1985 Libertad in my pocket for months, too. If it's supposed be insurance against the storm, why not have it with you throughout the day?

    Turd, xty & thomas - left the beef on the last thread, and asking for a clean slate here.

    I hate when typing or texting gets me in trouble, and can't *believe* it happened to me here! Nothing but love to everybody here. Happy Friday.

  14. @Rorshach:

    I think they dance around to the bottom, but a moment will come when everybody will rush each other to the bottom, as the POSX falls.

    A war MIGHT be forseeable (i think) against China and / or N Korea (must probably China). I hope not, though

  15. Sorry if this is an ignorant question, but is there a specific day the BLS monthly comes out, i.e first Friday after the month end, something like that?

    Thanks in advance...bought options a little too early this month and looking to set my Outlook calendar for April to get crushing returns in May!

  16. Silver, the comeback kid. Go to a lunch meeting down and now ahead. That's a nice surprise. Gotta love those ORD's.

    I've been holding on to Rangold (GOLD) since last year when Uncle Harry first mentioned. Went in pretty big. Came close to selling it all several times over the months but everything looked so good. Now it pops up and wants to make up for lost time.

    The EE kicked a sleeping tiger?

  17. Best advice ever BTFD
    and buy i did, and it was good.

  18. To whomever posted the netdania link... Thanks! It has a ton of great features and I can clearly see that silver will rise this month:

    Yes! This is satire, but it's of the "unicorn farting rainbows" type.

  19. @a

    According to that blogger, the REAL all time High (1980's) adjusted to inflation might be 129 dlls.

    However, silver usage today is higher than back then.

    Your best signal is: when silver gets to 16:1 (or better due to scarcity and usage) against gold, then change your silver for gold, IMHO

  20. Today's BFTD...It was truly a gift for those of a slightly speculative bent. The damage won't make it out of the day. An aberration.

    Closed out my extra XAG pickup from earlier, still sitting on my core XAG, PSLV and physical, looking forward to 40.

  21. Re: 2:26 post, How about leaving the religion slander and other trolling on the previous thread?

    Bernanke comes across not as corrupt, but instead both blind to Reality and as a 100% theory type of person. Kind of like that guy with the PhD who pours a can of oil into the radiator of his car.

  22. Many thanks to your blog and blog contributors (floaters), Mr TF!!.....this blog aided me in anticipating the daily morning beatdown....which allowed me to BTFD and help create a beautiful FUBM!!!

    Nothing like "getting my learn on" from the almighty Turd and his floaters, in this brilliant pool of genius dropppings!

  23. Hey Turd, this is my second post but I never said hello on the first one.

    Thanks for the great info!

    I went in heavy when I saw the dip earlier (I'm on the other side of the planet, so it was afternoon for me) and I wouldn't have the confidence to do that if it weren't for following this blog for a while. And it's worked out well!

    So thanks man!

  24. N. Korea might be the point of entrance for the US / UN over China.

    My supposition is that the US might go to war against China because of their factories (just what happened after WW2, being all those factories destroyed, the US emerged as a great power).

    However, you can always use any excuse to go to war against any country.. US could go to war against Canada if the wanted "just because they have OIL" LOL :)

    Obviously this is IMHO.. please correect me if I'm wrong

  25. @Rorshach

    I dont know if they'll manipulate prices after the 16:1 is hit, but remember that Gold is virtually indestructible (and is being stored most of it), whilst Silver is just getting scarcer by the minute

  26. Just read this on ZH and it somewhat confirms my uneducated guess for quite awhile.
    That the Fed's singular intention is to own so much of our own debt that it (The Fed Bank) will let our country default on itself via the Fed, thus keeping it off the Treasuries balance sheet as a real debt obligation that it no longer will have to worry about.
    Think about it, The bank will let the Gov. off the hook the way a huge bank might forgive a large mortgage if the bank could just write off the loss and it didn't matter at all and no one cared. Wow!

    The Fed has it's own printing press and has no higher authority then itself to hold accountable.
    Thats way too messed up to believe but it would make sense in a very twisted accounting system scheme, except that the law would allow it becauis it would be in our own countries best interest etc.

    How friggin' convoluted and self serving is that??? Seems possible.
    Madness or ingenious? Both?

    We've reached that Twilight Zone phase of all this.

  27. R_A_I_D!!! I feel like I need a siren that goes off in my office every freaking time they throw the hand grenades at the metals.


  28. magis00 - hey - it happened that someone did something very similar during a snarky thread the other day - no hard feelings and nothing to do with being a believer. All's cool in Turdistan. And look at the chart now! We may be in for a big correction, but I am sticking to my bull even for the short term. About that we can disagree.

  29. Oops...heres the text from ZH

    speech, titled appropriately: "Central Bank Independence and Sovereign Default" given at Wharton, Minneapolis Fed's Kocherlakota who now it can be put to rest was well aware of what today's NFP number will be, says the following: " I’ve argued that even if the fiscal authority borrows exclusively in its country’s own currency, the central bank can have a large amount of control over the price level. But the central bank can only achieve that control if it is willing to commit to letting the fiscal authority default. Such a commitment may expose the country to risks of short-term and medium-term output losses. How this trade-off should best be resolved awaits future research. But I suspect that it may be optimal for central banks to guarantee fiscal authority debts in some situations." In other words, if this is really a prevailing mode of thought within the Fed, very soon we may witness the first ever Leveraged Buyout by a central bank of a sovereign, leading to advent of the concept known as the Full Faith and Credit Of The Chairsatan. It will also certainly cement the perception of the Fed as an "independent" organization. And one wonders why gold is well on its way to recouping today's losses.

  30. TF said "The important (for silver) month of April begins in earnest on Monday so be ready."

    I'm a noob.. could someone please explain why April is important for silver. :)

  31. Pick52-

    OK, ya convinced me.... besides, it seems to be on the downdraft for the rest of the day and I hate to chase the tape down.

    But if Monday isn't fabulous you will hear from my lawyer..... ;-)

  32. @ Rorhasch

    The bottom line is that everyone deserves a chance, regardless of previous history or my own pre-judgements. I am not ignorant enough to go around parading silver coins, as if you own even 1 oz of silver, you are wealthier than a majority of the people in the world.

    The majority of people in this world are not crackheads, and even the ones that are I don't necessarily think it is their fault. Many of the faults we blame each other for are merely symptoms of the true plague, the inflationary keynesian theory that is ending. For me, it is worth the risk that I associate with often know, for if I was out of the loop, it would sure make me feel better to be given the "inside" scoop.

    I do exercise caution though when I speak of such subjects, as there are some people that would rather be left alone and as far as I am concerned, it is not my place to force my ideals upon them. I have learned very quickly this will only lead to me being unhappy and the sleepwalker to be angry at me.

    Glad to see so many of you do the same!
    Truly something we can all do so simply, helping further our case and giving a big <^> to the banking elite at the same time.

  33. DPH - and 'poof' in a mad accounting trick both the debt and the Fed disappear. And where Bernanke once stood there is just an empty suit in a pile and a puff of green smoke as the words "I am melting, I am melting," float in the air.

  34. Boy, the $USD is one sick bastard right now. Look at that thing puking.

    Sad and maddening to see this happening to it because of greed and arrogance on the Govt.'s part for decades.

  35. Why was I thinking of that twisted plot as well?

    They are buying way too much T-Bills, directly to the shredder LOL

    Now.. my question would be if this would STILL create inflation / hyperinflation, or will the gov live to see daylight once again?

  36. S-S-K,

    I'm not saying it won't drop some more today, but if you look over the last three days it seems we have a support level at 37.70. Tomorrow maybe we can push up from there. (I hope I am learning to think like a Turd).


    A peek into the future

  38. @Rorshach

    I think it would (in theory) drop below 16:1, however if they find some kind of cheap substitute, then maybe it'll stick to 16:1.. however you never know what could happen.. these are only conjetures (and maybe too much coffee) ;)

  39. XTY...
    Excellent! A Wizard of Oz reference and a descriptive one at that.

    A whole new way of accounting seems to be the only way we have out of this (if thats even possible. Not!)

    The only thing I can add is that it might be entirely possible (short term) if EVERYONE else goes along with it because EVERYONE is in the same or similar boat as the U.S.
    Who among other desperate countries would complain if Central Govt.'s everywhere started using similar desperate accounting rules and it was all a "wink, wink, nod, nod"

    How surreal to even think about.

  40. Pick52
    Thanks for the Calvin & Hobbes cartoon

  41. xyt: I was thinking the same thing but in my mind-movie - BM was melting and Bernanke was the man behind the curtain (aka the Fake Oz).

  42. Let's keep our silver shoes, and keep on walking the gold way! :)

    Thanks for remembering us that xty :)

  43. CNBC is crying because the selloff of DOW is happening right in front of their eyes. Love it.

  44. Ha Kiwi! Great to hear

    Tell your atty he can find me here if he ever needs me

    I know you a short term trader, but even if we go down a bit more maybe you can just hold a little longer. $38's going down next week

  45. It cant' be that easy can it?

    Paper trading the range. (silver mini) Trying to learn.

    Still not ready to risk real money.

    Shorted last night at bedtime 37.65 in anticipation of the jobs report. Turned on the computer this morning. Saw $37.20, sold for $450 profit. Then i noticed the huge amount of buying earlier at 37.10. Felt good about silver holding above the 37 level. Went long at 37.30. Two hours later had to leave for work. Got out 37.73 for a $400 profit.

    Then I realized those 2 quick trades yielded several times more than I will make at work today. Now I'm depressed, lol!

    I know it's different when there's real money on the line, but it just looks too easy at times.

  46. APRIL 8, Next Friday is a day to watch for. The Democrats and Republicans in Congress cannot agree on a budget. The US government will therefore shut down as of April 8th -- and there is no indication anyone will stop it. That means no paychecks, no services, et cetera -- for an indeterminate time.

  47. And poof: SLW loses .51 in ten minutes.

  48. 5 TIMES I try to post my comment and the system erases my post saying some kind of error....what the F**K
    I cant keep wasting time like this !!!

  49. Scottj88,

    You are right. People should not be blamed for not knowing what they don't know. The best hope for the future of this country, both after the storm and while riding through it, is that we get as many Americans as possible to pay attention and get educated about the problems. Showing people a silver coin is a great way to get their attention and get them talking and thinking. (I think I am quoting Dr. Jerome now.)

  50. Xty - thanks! glad we're all good.

    A nwb-level question for you Netdania types: on the netdania silver spot chart, in the volume window, where it shows 5 or 40 or whatever ... what are we actually looking at? Are those blocks of slv being traded? Or the most recent bid for a Comex order of Ag? Or what? I know to track it and I know volume matters ... well, vaguely know ... but hoping for more of a primer. Maybe I should be at investopedia?

  51. They can't keep the dollar up.

    Go Phils. Now 4-2.

  52. Fred: it's different when it's real money. Leveraged 10-to-1 can definitely let you know that you are not dead. Maybe happy, maybe not happy, but definitely not dead.

  53. thomas - it was suggested that everyone highlight, and ctrl+c/copy the text before submitting, so if it does go all error on you you can just ctrl+v/paste it. I hate it when that happens!

    Watcher, the Reds are coming for you this year! Halladay no-hitter what?!

    Afrum - I miss you. I've started using exclamation points ¡¡¡ everywhere!!!!

  54. Watcher have you read this from James Turk?...Maybe the backwardation will disappear at 40 bucks, but who knows? Maybe the backwardation is still going to be there at $45 or $50 which is the target that I’ve been looking for this year. If that happens, it’s impossible to predict, but if that happens that’s going to be an earthshaking event.”

  55. afrum, afrum, where-the-rat-bastard-freaking fore
    art thou, afrum!!!!!!!! :)

  56. That shitty little raid was actually brilliant. Paint the tape going into 3:00, which as we should all know, is right when the algos really kick in to square the day. IN essence, they blasted away the rising strength in GLD, took GDX back into the red and let the algos finish off the week for them.

    Monday, EXK starts the day off in the 9.70's not 10. SLW below 43. GDX 59 not 60.

    These guys are good.


  57. @ Rorshach regarding Gold to Silver Ratio

    I believe that silver will trend towards a 3:1 ratio with gold in shorter time than most would think possible. When we use the 16:1 ratio as seen in historically, understand that fundamentals have changed greatly since the last time this ratio was in play.

    In future conditions where silver is held as a monetary marker along with its strong industrial demand... this ratio will compress very quickly (but will probably see some type of major resistance at 16:1 for at least a while). Silver is now used in almost all high end technology and warfare. This article suggests over 500 oz of silver per tomahawk missile was used recently(we sent 191 missiles) and 1/10th of an oz per computer.

    In the past when these ratios held true, the world was not as reliant on silver as it is today. The amount of uses for this truly precious metal compared to the few other times it has flirted with the 16:1 ratio.

    Along with that, the world had above ground surplus with silver, which is dwindling by the day now and will run out with the current demand accelerating. The day we wake up and the market figures out that the short-term supply/demand is in trouble, which will spell uncertainty for the long/term supply of silver... will be the day there is a massive price squeeze.

    For the people who suggest that there will be additional mining and silver recycling, this is true... but will they be able to get large amounts of silver out of the ground quick? I don't think so... The market will turn to miners (if not nationalized).

    80% of my portfolio is currently between silver miners.

    Think about what conditions will be in the future.

    (On a side note, these ratios wont mean anything soon anyways, as they account for dollar gold/silver ratio... soon enough there will be no more federal reserve note...and true price discovery will begin)

  58. Go Silver!

    Crossing point is 37.77, if we cross that line, maybe we might get to Turd's line...!

  59. Fred-

    Yep, some days I pinch myself and wonder how I'm making more with 5 minutes of keypresses than I do in 8 hours at my desk. I tell myself it's because I'm willing to put my own money at risk, and it's working out because of Turd and the good folks in the Turd Herd who are educating me about when to buy (and when to hold!). Any fool can buy high and sell low, I like to think I'm getting smart and that's what makes me money. (And a bull market in PMs doesn't hurt). Just my .02! (now .04 after a great day).

  60. ...and I'm still mourning the loss of 2006ImpalaDriver

  61. Scott,

    Just purchased a small amount of Revett (last droppings left in my account). I wanted to get in before next week started. Hope to see a new listing next week as you mentioned.

  62. oldNavy, I miss impala driver as well. I wonder if he ever got back his maple?

  63. Scottj88-

    Geez, first we loan Libya 10billon, and now we are giving them silver for free! It just isn't fair..... ;-)

  64. magis00: I was at that halliday playoff no hitter. ;-P

    I read that. Once gold gets into backwardization it's all over but the World Series.

  65. @ Rorshach:

    ^^ What Scottj88 said :)

  66. 2006ImpalaDriver had the great stories about "a day in the life", right? Those were hilarious. When we lose the good ones, does that mean they've kicked it into high gear and they're in ID or ND somewhere burying pvc pipe filled with TEOTWAWKI supplies?

    Example of Hilarity copied below:

    2006 Impala Driver said...

    Hey Guys,

    I've been trying to get a hold of my coin shop for the past two days, no answer. It felt a little unusual.

    Plus, my computer was knocked out by Desktop Cleaner Extreme. I couldn't connect to AOL or read my email. I started to get worried and thought the day of reckoning had arrived.

    Slightly off-topic: PLEASE do not buy or install Desktop Cleaner Extreme! I paid $69 for this monster. It's a porno magnet, it created hundreds of folders all over my computer and filled them with very disturbing photos. Does anyone know what "skat" is?

    I called my son to help me out. At first, he thought I needed to see a therapist for porn addition. My son said he deleted 20 gigabytes of photos from my computer. The old computer runs MUCH faster now.

    Anyway, so I stop into the coin shop this afternoon to check on my buddy. I found him dusting shelves and asked why he wasn't answering the phone. He asked me what number I was calling, and I realized I was dialing the wrong number.

    He had a bunch of Silver Maples and tried convincing to buy a bunch of them. Is there any reason I should look at Silver Maples or Eagles?
    February 9, 2011 9:42 PM

    I liked the one about going to the mall with his wife, too. Apparently she'd grown weary of his talking about PMs non-stop - a pair of shoes apparently cured that!

  67. What a lame week for silver. Pretty much spent the entire week in a dingy with one paddle and spinning around in circles. Thanks Blythe.

    Was kinda hoping gold/silver would rise with the oil today, that sure didn't happen. The early day Dow and dollar rally must have kept everyone away.

    @ oldNavy,
    Impala's random, humor-filled posts always seemed to cheer everyone up no matter what was going on, sure wish he would start posting again!

  68. @ Thecolorskdy

    25th March 2011

    TORONTO ( – TSX-listed Revett Minerals hopes to list its shares on the NYSE Amex in the coming weeks, after receiving approval from the exchange, CEO John Shanahan said on Thursday.

    There are still some processes that need to be cleared for the listing.

    The coming weeks seems vague, too hard to guess for sure. It seems to have taken a late day plunge to fill the gap a bit.

    Good luck and I hope you have done your own diligent research. I am by no means a seasoned expert, but am giving information to the best of my ability. When it comes down to it, you must trust yourself for all decisions you make in life.

  69. Raul V

    Flirting with your 37.77 now...

  70. hey turd, in the next witch video you do can you make her a vampire or at least a zombie!!!

  71. 3:35. Algos usually finished by now. Perhaps we regain a little going into close.


  72. Thinking of making another gold coin purchase this week. Hey it can't go sideways for too much longer. I was going to get some more buffaloes if I can find them but I took a side trip from one of Turd's sponsors and found a coin shop in Torrance. They are selling US Gold Eagles. My question is: Does the fact that they are 22K and not 24K make them a harder resell? It's my understanding that the gold content still equals 1 oz pure.
    Any feedback is appreciated. Thanks.

  73. also zerohedge has a nice article on the FED loaning libya banks billions
    (aint that a load of shit)

  74. My entry to the bonehead trade of the week contest:

    I BTFD this morning, bought agq at 218.08 or something - truly an early christmas from Blythe. Thanks darling, you're too sweet.

    But, because I was in class all morning and up doing presentations and whatnot, I thought I'd be clever and set stops. Trailing stop of $0.25 to be safe, I said - I know that we'll retrace the dip and get back up to 37.7x or so, right?

    5 seconds later I'd sold my agq at 218.20 - $20 loss for the 2 transactions, and agq trading at ~$225.xx now. Aye yay yay.

    Lesson learned: prob want to go with a limit activation price rather than a stop?

    It's okay, my physical still loves me. Happy Friday all!

  75. Is there anyone holding front month SLW options long over the weekend? Even though I'm a bit underwater right now I'm still tempted to sell before close today but of course want to take advantage of any short term move up to avoid the loss. Any thoughts on SLW price action from here short term next week?

  76. Magis,

    You're fine with a trailing stop, but .25c on a $220 double leverage ETF is faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaar too small. AGQ can travel $20 in a day

    Maybe try a percentage based stop? At least 5%

  77. bit off topic .....

    but wasn't today launch day for a brave new website ?

    I am simply unable to keep up with the level of comments these days and always feel guilty at not reading them all )-:

    hopefully forum based chat will allow us a bit of filtering

    Still feels like home here though

    thanks turd


  78. Stefan,

    That makes more sense - definitely gave me a reason to read up on the full menu of trade flavors available.

    Is there a way to get some combination of a trailing stop with an activation price? E.g., once agq runs back to 223, I could set it to sell at a 75¢ decline from there?

    All this reminds me of a Churchill quote: "I'm always ready to learn, although I do not always like being taught."

    And for BM: Madam, I may be drunk, but you are ugly; and in the morning I will be sober.

  79. SLW is sitting right at today's pivot point. First level of support down around 42.20 was not violated today. First overhead resistance is right at yesterdays close and SLW's high price of the day. Not a good day for SLW.

  80. 75.874 = OSRD for the good ol' greenback.

  81. Stephen,

    I haven't the slightest idea where SLW opens on Monday. But you go with the trend. We went through an insane week, and SLV has performed admirably. SLW had a huge selloff yesterday. But there we have the plausible explanation of funds selling off their winners to boost their quarterly numbers. I would really like to see a close above 43, but that doesn't appear to be in the cards. I'm holding through the weekend. But I'm not monkeying with options.


  82. I suspect that wherever he is or whatever he is doing, afrum would be rather surprized to learn that he has been mentioned thirty or forty times in the last few days alone, and that as a result of his absence he is fast achieving legendary status. Not sure why, but this idea really cracks me up! Oh afrum, our mad sage, we plead with you for a return to the all exclamation point pearls of wisdom.

  83. Ben,please print a few afrums for havens shake.

  84. Phils with BIG 3 run comeback in the bottom of the ninth. Sorry bout that Houston. Gold and silver also coming back. Hang in.

  85. Deleted comments and the new website

    Rorshach wrote:
    Either my computer is broke or rational questions aren't allowed on this blog, or my questions just don't make since, no problem. Like to know witch one, though. Thanks anyway, don't mind being on the sidelines.

    April 1, 2011 3:49 PM

    OK, folks, let us try this one more freaking time. The commenting software here on Blogspot is LOUSY. It often deletes comments. The Turd knows this and is working on a new website and new software, which he hopes to place into service in early May 2011. Until then, just be patient.

    -- Paul D. Bain

  86. Maybe afrum is tied up writing press releases for TECPO:

    All is well!!Really!!We wouldn't kid you!!Go home!!Don't worry about your winter tan!!

  87. Thanks to whomever posted the Calvin & Hobbes link, that was great. For some graphic representation of the mess we're all in, here are some (to me) uplifting and/or funny artistic impressions:

    Bank bailouts (oldie but goodie)

    If it looks like you're winning, they change the rules (EE vs. TF)

    Easily distracted masses - Bread & Circus (CNBS + DWTS + American Idol + Republocrats + FRB)

  88. Magis,

    I wish! No such luck!!!!

    Could this be Afrum?!!!!

    This seems like verbal exclamation points to me!!!

  89. That guy is awesome! I feel like each of us has that same enthusiasm about silver and PMs in general - so entertaining to see a brother-in-arms rocking the 1770s garb and being excited on camera.

    And speaking of Happy Friday, THAT guy *must* have a Sam Adams just off-camera. And when I leave work in 9 min I'll need one to nurse away that agq incident!

  90. DarkPurpleHaze,

    to continue with your thought at 2:49pm, the Fed prints money from scratch and ends up, to the best of my knowledge and stand corrected, holding legal title to whatever 'assets' they've purchased. The Fed, along with the banks & larger conglomerates own quite a bit, no?

    Also, haven't seen it posted, but nice post by TraderDan:

  91. Yup... blogspot comment system is lousy.. :(

    Use Notepad & C/P :)

  92. Here is an argument for why 16:1 will be passed, and predicted in being ~9:1 by this individual for reasons that feel sound. Overall good information and I have subscribed to this users upload service about a month ago. He has a lot of good information.

  93. @kiyotei

    I was told that although the eagle has a little copper in it it still has 1 oz of gold ,

    and its worth the same as the gold maples.

  94. SLW just plain sucked this week. Maybe someone with experience can explain to me exactly why?

    All I know is a love/hate relationship went to an extrememly pissed/hate relationship.

    It made no sense to me the way it was trading the end of the week this week. All I know is if you could get good at btfd's you would have done well. Pretty annoying for a 1-3 trade per week guy like me.

    Oh well. The break out will be here soon enough...

  95. ZH outline the reason for the POSX selloff

  96. @kiyotei,
    In case you haven't had your question answered...

    The gold eagle has 1 oz of gold, and the gold comprises 91.67% of the weight of the coin (this from the specs on the US Mint page). So that means the coin actually weighs 33.926 grams instead of 31.1 grams (= 1 oz). The balance of the coin is 3% silver and the rest copper.

  97. .999 Gold Buffaloes (24k)usually are a little more money but because of mintage not gold content.

  98. The COT report is absolute complete bogus at this point. It doesn't account for price changes and market action at all anymore.

  99. Someone asked earlier why April is so important.

    The current delivery month for silver is May. The May contract has a "first notice" date of April 29...four weeks from today. On that date, everyone intending to stand for delivery must post 100% of the cost of purchase in their account (essentially 100% margin) or close their contract.

    You'll recall that there was much chagrin and grinding of teeth on the Comex back in late February as this process unfolded on the March contract. Get ready for an even greater degree of wailing and teeth grinding in April!

  100. caramel...
    yep, sounds like they would own everything. Scary concept.

    Makes you really wonder why Congress wouldn't or didn't change the Fed's mandate along time ago or even recently.
    Seems like this might have been the plan all along the way they have been able to implement the money printing, massive treasury buying, liquidity, equities/commodities explosion etc.

    So it begs the question....are other countries onboard with this or at least aware?
    Seems likely.
    I think China is the key as it seems the G20 is almost begging them to unpeg and get sucked into our debt problems.
    China is holding out and going long and heavy on PM's for a reason. Their own quasi-reserve currency based on PM's and never intending to go international currency status the way the SDR works. Just a guess.
    The Chinese are stubborn/wise and they know they can hold out and call the shots.
    The only thing I see screwing them up big time is if or when their giant bubble bursts.
    That debt or inflation monster might be the thing that forces them to the SDR debt table eventually.

  101. F / Don / Rick - Thanks. I'll just assume my future potential buyer knows this as well :-) BUT the buffaloes are so pretty! I'm torn. Will have to sleep on it I guess.

  102. Scottj, Mammoth, EA and others

    you are all adults, some older than others, and I respect that really I do. I want to throw out a word of caution. It's wonderfully humanitian that you would want to go out on the street and flash a silver coin to strike up conversation to help your fellow man. You are probably doing this in good neighborhoods but flash that coin to wrong dude, even in a good hood, and you could have vistors. I don't need to elaborate on this you all are intelligent to see what I'm saying and you don't need to convince me you have it covered. This is just to provoke thought. You could flash that coin to an honest fellow today that may not be honest a year or two from now.

    My advice, keep this to people you can really, really trust and instruct them to do the same.


    I know you asked a question yesterday about cup and handle formations on charts that had to do with either minute or hour (don't remember which). I don't know if you received an answer or not but I think there is something here to look at.

    First I will say that I am good at reading daily or weekly charts. The first consistant exposure to minute and hourly charts has been here posted by TF and the ones Trader Dan puts up. So right up front I am telling you my expertice ... not very encouraging I know :-)

    Look above to the 3-min May silver chart ... note the TF comment ... "Ain't This Pretty". There is a cup and handle there and TF likes it. Ok lets look at the 3-min May crude ... we don't have a "Pretty" comment and I will state I don't understand the "Uhhhh....not so much" comment but the cup & handle look to be there as in silver .... Gold, in the chart above, tried to form the same C & H but fell a bit short ... what does all this mean ... I can't be certain on these short term charts.

    I thought your question yesterday was a good one. Since I was away from my computer since yesterday I have no idea if someone answered you. This is the best I can see and welcome anybody with better insight to educate what we are looking at on these short term charts.

  103. Spencer & Stephen & SSK

    I'm not sure what to make of SLW either. I thought yesterday's sell off would be it for awhile. Even bought more at 42.03. It has definitely behaved differently the last couple weeks. The premium to POS is compressing that's for sure. Maybe the hedgies are shorting? Next month's earnings ought to be stellar and should burn the shorts good. I'm staying long though I did sell Apr 47 calls. They look safe for now but as you know, things change fast.

  104. I second that request for someone to give some insight on SLW's whacky week. I couldn't get a bead on that puppy at all

  105. Anyone who isn't excited for Monday after watching the action today...particularly the action post 4:00 either a troll or braindead.

  106. Chin Music: I agree completely and even more likely is flashing it to your nephew who, unknown to you, is a meth addict. He then tells his buds what's up and Ka-ching - have a nice day. This really happened to someone I know.

    It can happen any number of ways but everyone should just use caution when discussing anything of value and where it is on your person or home.

  107. And crude is about to finish this week ABOVE the previous intra-week high set on 3/7. Very, very bullish.

  108. TY SSK . . . thanks for your thoughts . . . i didn't sell based on the odds of further world troubles over the weekend ie war, inflation, high oil prices et el

    gotta run now way behind on reading messages after yours SSK . . . will be back later to catch up.

  109. Thank you Chin, for taking the time

    After some quick further reading I was starting to come to the conclusion that a CnH pattern wouldnt be as relevant in a shorter timeframe, but noone here confirmed that for seems to me at least a month or so would be necessary but honestly not sure

    The possible CnH I was referencing yesterday shows up best now on the 4 hr starting on March 23-24

    Just tossin' darts on this subject tho, again. If we stick together I know we can figure it out eventually!

  110. thanks for all SLW comments and for your recent general comments Turd , , , just wish i knew what was up with SLW . . . it seems to be saying we may have yet another pullback before we go higher . . .

    You're one awesome turd my friend!

  111. This is what SLW is saying to me:

    "I love Titus. Buy more of me."

  112. This is what my June SLW calls are saying to me:


    Because they have their mouth wrapped around my, well... yeah, they love me, too.

  113. Chin Music - thanks for that answer - I had seconded the question. But what as to time frame? When I jokingly said I saw them everywhere that is what I meant - I see them in the shorter time frames but I think it is insignificant.

    DPH - I say no to China being in on the One World Dollar (or One Domain Dolllar, ODD). Russia probably yes. The Middle East by necessity. I think when it comes to TPTB as we talk about them there are still walls between China, Russia and the Rest (I just coined that). And that is scary because it means world war is still possible. If they were in on it, then we would only have to worry about tyrany and enslavement instead of first carnage. But I am not depressed, really. Nothing but smiles.

  114. SLW tracks the overall stock market and silver. It takes a hit when there is a general market selloff.

    Today was APMEX delivery day at the blorf house, so nothing about the market was going to get me down. I bought the nuclear meltdown dip after the tsunami, and the loot finally arrived today.

    RED TOP coin tube from the mint.. nothing says financial security like a roll of gold eagles. Beautiful... it's about the only thing the treasury department does right. Sadly, I had to put it in the safe deposit box this afternoon, but I got to admire them all morning.

  115. Turdites, any good suggestions how to invest in oil?

    Are there different ways for WTI and brent?

  116. From ZH:

    "Remember when the G7 stepped in to valiantly sell yen when the Japanese currency was threatening to take out all of Wall Street with its hundreds of billions in wrong way carry trades? Well, it seems that today's bizarre sell off in the dollar was due to that particular plan crashing and burning, with Korea defecting from the pact first, and selling its $7 billion in USD acquired in the process of bailing out Japan. It seems it is fair game to buy the Yen once again."

    Hot potato and now they cannot trust one another. And governments keep failing so bureaucrats roll over and personnel changes. Volatility not just in the commodities n'est pas?

  117. Turd: You're like a breath of fresh air!

    Thank you for heading up this little company of rebel investors. The hard part will be selling, because it feels like God and country behind me, being long on silver, these days.

    Long live the Turd!

  118. I think I also commented about the C & H formation in silver.. I hope it's not false alarm or something.

  119. I leve you Peter Schiff's March Gold Report, in case you haven't read it already.

    It's suscription based (free of charge) by mail.

    Hope you enjoy the reading :)

    Gold spent the entire month above $1,400 and recorded a new nominal high at $1,447. Silver ranged in the mid-$30s before popping up to a 31-year nominal high at $37.87. So far, the double-digit correction everyone has been waiting for has not materialized. I think this points to the strength of the factors driving the precious metals rally. Gold and silver are getting consistently better because the US economic and political pictures are getting consistently worse.

    Let this serve as proof that it's more profitable to choose the right fundamental trend than to try to buy and sell based on whether prices "feel" low or high. The gold price "feels" high to many Wall Street analysts, but they've said that since $500. Fortunately for us, the fundamentals driving precious metals remain the same - really, they've magnified.

    Read the Aden Sisters' close-up view of the precious metals market below. They give a great account of where gold and silver stand, where they're headed, and when you should buy. Jeff Clark provides some perspective to those who think the silver trade is already overcrowded. (It's actually still pretty lonely.) And I break open a taboo subject among gold dealers: how to sell your gold.


    Peter Schiff
    Euro Pacific Precious Metals, LLC

  120. Hi Folks,

    Thanks for everything. SO much to read !

    Was wondering if you folks have talked about any particular miners? =)


  121. Sorry about the stupid BLS question earlier...TF made it crystal clear in his past BLS posts, first Friday of the month

    Embarassed I somehow missed that

  122. Chin

    I am afraid I have to agree with you. The potential risk involved in "show & tell" with a silver coin is probably best avoided. Too bad, but probably right. Of course, you could say all the rest of your coins are in a bank safe deposit box, I suppose, but some people might decide to find out for themselves.

  123. Here's the article Schiff talks about:

    (Sorry if it's too long) :/
    by Mary Anne & Pamela Aden

    PART 1

    Gold nearing $1500, silver nearing $40, oil well above $100! What a week... what a month... what a year!

    Escalating violence in Libya is adding fuel to the already strong bull markets, especially with concern growing that turmoil could spread into even more countries.

    The threat of possible supply disruptions is providing the real fire under oil, while demand continues to grow. Gold and silver, in turn, are the safe havens as inflation concerns and uncertainty prevail.

    But from another angle, gold and silver are also being driven higher by the same force that is driving the unrest - namely, a sea of liquidity introduced by the Federal Reserve. Since the Fed has shown no sign of changing course, we expect much more volatility to come.


    In this market, the major danger is coming from soaring agricultural prices. Global food prices rose to a record in February. Rising food and oil are a deadly match because these "needs" make up a large portion of the budgets of the world's poor (see Chart 1). When someone loses their ability to eat and get to work, they have nothing left to lose by taking to the streets.

    (Chart 1)

    Just since last June, 44 million people were pushed into extreme poverty according to the World Bank. This alone explains why governments are being toppled in the Middle East and North Africa. The United Nations says other countries at risk of food riots are Bolivia and Mozambique.

  124. PART 2


    In volatile times, protecting yourself, your family, and your assets is most important. China is smart. While the West debases its currencies, China continues to appreciate the bull market in gold. Most interestingly, the government is making it even easier for its citizens to buy gold.

    Late last year, for instance, the World Gold Council (WGC) and the Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) got approval to launch a gold investment product, called the ICBC Gold Accumulation Plan, where average Chinese can obtain gold-linked savings accounts. Over one million accounts have already been opened with over 12 tons of gold backing them.

    One million people represents 0.07% of the total Chinese population. Assuming growth trends continue, this represents a very deep well of potential gold buyers.


    Central banks are still buying and holding gold for the first time in 21 years.

    Once again, China is the leader. Its demand for small bars and coins increased by 70% year-over-year in 2010, and new purchases have already climbed to 200 metric tons in the first two months of 2011.

    The Middle East is joining in as well. Demand for bars and coins jumped 39% in Q4 from a year earlier, according to the WGC.

    We only see this trend growing as countries seek some form of insurance in a fast-changing geopolitical landscape.


    In 2005, the first milestone in the bull run occurred when gold broke clearly above $500. This was the rise when it broke clearly away from the dollar and started soaring in all currencies (see gold in Swiss francs on Chart 2).

    (Chart 2)

    2009 was the next milestone when gold broke clearly above $1000. This started a stronger phase of the bull market, and since then, gold hasn't looked back.

    With gold now approaching $1500, we're nearing another significant psychological level. Gold will most likely resist near $1500 before moving clearly above this level. The $2000 area will then be the next target.

    Will $5000 - $6000 or more end up being the final destination? Time will tell. It looks like this is a possibility, but it's more important to keep an eye on the market and stay with the trend for as long as it lasts.

    Right now, the gold bull doesn't even appear to have gone mainstream. Just ask your neighbors.


    Gold's 7.25% decline in January was very mild... barely a correction, which means a significant decline is still to come. For a broader look, since the 2008 meltdown, gold has gained 104% with only a 13.3% decline along the way. For now, global turmoil will keep a floor under prices, but there may be a pull back when the situation stabilizes.

    As has been our recommendation, if you have no physical gold in your portfolio, it's a wise idea to start averaging in by making regular purchases. If you already have large holdings, you may wish to wait until the next correction to buy with both hands.

    We see more volatility in the months and years ahead. It's safer to be in precious metals than to wait for the "right price" and be left without. Clearly, the world's major governments feel the same way.

    Mary Anne and Pamela Aden are authors of The Aden Forecast, an investment newsletter now in its thirtieth year. They specialize in the precious metals and foreign exchange markets, as well as the US and international equity and credit markets."

  125. Chin Music...If you're still here thanks for the coin shop suggestion yesterday. I am going to do some DD on the subject and see what I come up with. I'll let you know later. Marquette is my first thought.

  126. I'm pretty pumped up to see what Monday brings. The crude action this afernoon and the poor PO$X spiraling at the same time has PM's poised to move Monday a.m.
    We'll have to wait and see how the market opens Sunday night oversea's to get a clue maybe. The PO$X keeps up the plunge and things might get real interesting.

    My USO call options have been pretty limp inspite of oil steadily grinding up. Anyone care to share how their playing the crude from a options standpoint other then USO?
    I'm not getting rid of them and will hold them into time but any other oil play strategies?

  127. Music to our ears from Jesse today:

    "The failed bear raid in the metals today was so clumsy that it was almost embarrassing.

    There was disappointment in those who were short the metals, or had lost their positions, and were feeling discouraged that silver and gold had failed"

  128. Turd,
    I know the ruling mindset here is the BM and her monkeys are the ones playing games with us, knocking down the price unfairly and generally screwing with us, but here's another potential way of looking at it:

    I does not take much of a change in thinking to postulate that it's the BoS (and us Turdites, of course!) that are screwing with BM. Just look what happens late on Friday afternoon every week recently. We end strong, just like the BoS would want. After all, one of the things we established early on is that the BoS (and probably most of the non-Western world) now measure their wealth in gold and silver, not in dollars.

    Once we look at things from the perspective of the BoS being in control, then we can imagine that they laugh at BM's petty knock-downs, seeing them as opportunities to pick up some cheaper PMs.

    What exactly have BM's tactics achieved over the last year or more? Bugger all!! What would the BoS have wanted? Probably a gradual monthly increase in their wealth, and that's what they've got.

    Anyway, that's my thoughts on Saturday morning here. Have a great weekend and thank you very much for your fantastic guidance. As SSK mentioned at the top, as Santa gets more and more cryptic, you get plainer, clearer and more valuable. Thank you.

  129. Raul - from the paper you first cited:

    "Fortunately for us, the fundamentals driving precious metals remain the same - really, they've magnified.

    While I disagree that gold will experience a serious correction, other than that it seemed very solid.

    I was reading comments and going to say almost exactly what Pick quoted:

    "Music to our ears from Jesse today:

    "The failed bear raid in the metals today was so clumsy that it was almost embarrassing.""

    I think Monday will be very interesting indeed. That was a massive raid today and look where we are. Resilient and relentless.

  130. NCdirtdigger - check up in the comments - Turd explains.

  131. Rick,

    you are welcome ... let me know where you wind up leaning for I may have some other thoughts for you to ponder

  132. Chin...I will definitely keep you posted.

  133. Newspeak is upon us:

    ""The European Council on Friday approved the decision to mount an EU military operation to support humanitarian efforts in Libya, if asked to do so by the United Nations. "

  134. More from Jesse:

    "As for US equities, I could not bet against broad stocks here until I see a genuine failure of a trend. The monied interests seem determined to take this tragic comedy higher, because they do not know what else to do, but to deceive and loot, and do again what has failed twice before. They may not care, as long as they end up with rents and income producing assets.

    There was a double dose of Dick Grasso and David Kelly on Bloomberg this morning, extolling the virtues of Wall Street and the wonders of the economic recovery. That was painful to watch. The brood of vipers on parade.

    Who cares? We'll all be rich, with more dollars than we could have ever imagined. Just put your faith in the financial powers and your own false pride."

    This, to me, perfectly sums up what is so petrifying about our "leaders" - that they just do not care. Thank you to whoever posted the new Dmitry Orlov from Max Keiser, too, because he made a chilling point that he was disappointed enough US citizens still believe their government is their own, that a Third Party could make a difference, that the District of Corruption was not wholly owned by banks and corporations. Why write letters to these people begging them? Orlov lived through Russian collapse, and he is a very kind person who wouldn't use the phrase "disappointed in the American people" lightly or casually

    Alex Jones documented the same sentiment that Jesse describes today, when he snuck in and shot the "Creamation of Care" ceremony at Bohemian Grove.

    Sadistic sociopaths are moving forward, full speed ahead, and they just. don't. care.

    We have silver and gold.

  135. I must report that thanks to a delivery we recived today, our Phase 1 Preparation is complete and we are moving on to the the next step in the plan. We now have a base stash of PM's and are implenting our weekly buy plan. We also in the past 3 months have been able to put away a little stash of food and supplies just by buying extras on sale.

    Thanks Turd, for showing us the light. I sleep much better now that we have a little something prepared.

  136. Badu

    That is a delightful report. Congratulations!

  137. I am quite jealous of you people who can call up APMEX and order a tube of gold eagles or call up Tulving and get 5,000 oz of silver. We just don't have that kind of money laying around. We can barely afford 2 oz silver per week. Sigh.

  138. Deep Purple Haze: I think that's exactly what's going on with the fed, and the debt, and the banks even CBs.
    We may not even go into default, just bury the paper on the balance sheet of the fed and the TBTF banks and some of our buddy buddy CBs.
    worked fine so far with all the subprime mbs and such so why not UST.
    I also think we're going to get a bait and switch/head fake on the QE3. the fed may back off but the banks have a trillion$ in excess reserves which can be repositioned to finance the deficit in the coming year. Or they can borrow from the fed and buy UST-they already do that anyway
    Of course all these maneuvers only change perceptions not reality. Inflation will come hard and fast via the commodity realm. $8 gas anyone?
    Bernank and his gang are there to employ these obfuscating maneuvers to hide the debt and insolvency-that's his mandate and that's what he's trained for, not any of the other BS.
    It's his ball/stuff the world has to play with ($) so they have to play by his rules-for now. But we've all been to kindergarten and we know how abusing that privelege ends.

  139. Xty,

    Thanks, I must have been scrolling through too fast.

  140. Scottj88

    Just in case you missed my comment to Chin Music, I wanted to make sure you did, as we were talking about your earlier post about using a silver coin as a conversation piece. Here is what I said:


    I am afraid I have to agree with you. The potential risk involved in "show & tell" with a silver coin is probably best avoided. Too bad, but probably right. Of course, you could say all the rest of your coins are in a bank safe deposit box, I suppose, but some people might decide to find out for themselves.

  141. at any other time in our history some are more wealthy than others. PMs will help maintain or elevate ones current level of wealth. As far as survival in the comming colapse food, weapons and other common items will be more important. Just do what you can do and trust in the Lord to provide. Be happy, you only live once.

  142. Has anyone read this artical that was on Drudge for only an hour this morning,

    It's about a casual contact HIV type disease starting to spread in china. If true this would be the mother of all Black Swans.

    If someone could, please get this info over to Zero Hedge as I do not have an account there yet.

    And no I don't think this was an April fools joke.

  143. I've been debating on trading half my gold for silver, as silver seems to have more upside. My current allocation is around 2.5/1 ($silver/$gold). Any thoughts?

  144. DPH, I get the impression Americans will be the brought to its knees whereas China will get hit but their physical metals and likely upward revaluation will be the foundation for their future.

    Time for opening day baseball - Go Jays!

  145. Just picked this up from ZH.
    Explains what was behind the yo-yo POSX today. Huge amounts of liquidity getting out of control maybe?

    The G7 Turns On Itself: BOK Sells Its Share Of Japan Rescue Dollars, Sends Greenback Plunging
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/01/2011 16:20 -0400

    Remember when the G7 stepped in to valiantly sell yen when the Japanese currency was threatening to take out all of Wall Street with its hundreds of billions in wrong way carry trades? Well, it seems that today's bizarre sell off in the dollar was due to that particular plan crashing and burning, with Korea defecting from the pact first, and selling its $7 billion in USD acquired in the process of bailing out Japan. It seems it is fair game to buy the Yen once again. From a trading desk:

    USD getting spanked today is Bank of Korea selling $7Bn USD it bought during the coordinated USDJPY intervention, and buying GBP and EUR with it. I can understand why they would get rid of the USD, but why buy GBP and EUR with it???? Either way, goes to show how useful it is to do an intervention, they drop the reserves 2 weeks after... we'll be back to square 1 in no time if everybody follows suit!

    Remember - he who defects first and all that jazz...

    (and yes, if $7 billion can move the EURUSD by 180 pips, we dread to see what the actual carry unwind instead of just impairment would look like).

  146. @Pablo

    I feel ya. I'm in sort of the same boat with lack of funds and admittedly get a bit jealous when I hear people can buy tubes of gold in one shot. Thing is, I always remind myself that one silver coin is more than 99% of anyone else around me. If I get two coins, well its double that! I was thinking at work today that I probably am the only one on my floor (out of over 100 employees) that actively buys silver bullion. Every time I get one more ounce, its more than I had before. This ponzi isn't ending that soon, you still have time Pablo.

  147. Scott (and other Ron Paul supporters),

    I actually watched that documentary you mentioned in the other thread (The One Percent). I've been meaning to watch it myself as I had already seen his first film, and your recommendation was the impetus to finally check it out.

    I was surprised by the arrogance of Milton Friedman but also got the feeling that the documentary failed to take the extra step of really seeing the big picture w/ respect to income inequality and capitalism.

    Friedman's defense of trickle-down economics was extremely insufficient. He claims, despite increasing income inequality, poor people have higher incomes than before, but fails to account for inflation and rising COL. When pushed on the subject, he tells the young Johnson, "you have tried my patience" as if the kid is too dumb to understand Friedman's brilliant BS. However, Friedman did have a point, as I'm sure most people here would agree, when he said government has gotten too large.

    And yet this how capitalism works. Capitalism is about self-interest, increasing efficiency in the exploitation of resources (labor and capital), cost reduction, and profit maximization.

    With respect to allowing capitalism to function properly, all us fiscal conservatives and Ron Paul supporters (myself included) say "END THE FED and reduce the size of government." But this would lead to massive unemployment and societal instability. The size of Government is so large precisely b/c the private sector has grown so efficient that it cannot absorb the surplus labor supply. So government steps in to provide employment and prop up GDP, while the Fed (and China/Japan historically) provided the financing. As I'm sure you remember from college Econ, GDP = Govt Expenditures + Consumption + Investment + Net Exports (GDP = G + C + I + X).

    And that is what I realized towards the end of the documentary around the time the filmmaker's father was going on about how it's not all black and white, it's not all right and wrong, and there are always 2 sides to each issue.

    For example, if Ron Paul were to have his way, yes, we would have real price discovery, and free markets, but what would our unemployment rate be? Our economy would retool and remake
    itself, sure... but what about the teeming masses of unskilled, obsolete, and surplus labor in our country? What happens to them?

    We don't necessarily have any obligation to provide for them, but if their numbers are substantial (I think they are), we'd end up having two revolutions--the Ron Paul Revolution, and then the revolution in response to THAT revolution, perhaps w/ a Neo-Socialist/Communist bent. And the second revolt could be just as morally persuasive as the first. No one wants to see a so many people w/o jobs, dying of starvation, lacking medical treatment, and no social security. I think we'd look back at the days when our govt could afford to hire these people to perform mindless, redundant tasks such as rubber-stamping govt application forms as opposed to roaming the streets looking for food. I've worked for a government agency before and I would say 25-40% of all positions in my dept could've been eliminated w/o significantly decreasing the dept's functionality (admittedly our dept was ineffective to begin w/). This pretty much applies to the majority of govt positions.

    Hope this didn't come off as being too out there. Just some thoughts I wanted to share.

  148. I have a question for everyone. Considering what has happened with hyperinflation in Weimar, Chile, and other places throughout history, there seems to be an x-factor with regards to credit cards. Nowadays, people have credit cards whereas they didn't exist long ago. If people start to see prices rise on the store shelves, wouldn't they max out their cards with foodstuffs to in effect "hedge" future rises in prices? We would see a few months of strong retail numbers initially but would catastrophically plummet thereafter.

    Imagine influx of people buying foods en masse wiping out the shelves. Retailers would put orders in for MORE product to replace, except that those new inventories will sit dormant on the shelves because people either will default their credit or have enough food to last a few months on end. Just curious as to what you guys think how credit cards will play into hyperinflation?

  149. Anybody got suggestion on potential miners? Sorry to re-ask. Missed out a lot, only finding today; this week to post. =)

    Any body feel something for the miners?

    @ Pablo,
    DO NOT FEEL LIKE THAT. Thinking macho is not necessarily the right way, in fact it could be the dumb way to do things. I like to spread out risk. Since NO ONE KNOWS what price will do, a great way to accumulate is to set a time line and ease in.

    A guy that locks in $30K at a particular price subjects himself to a lot of price risk. His precious metals aren't going any where any time soon.

    Meanwhile, if you spread $30K through out the year, you might be able to buy some highs/lows and capture better opportunities, should they permit, and IM SURE IT WILL. Opportunities are abundant!

    I'm planning on my monthly order of silver/gold, but won't rush it. I will buy on the next retracement.

  150. Just came across this from
    Can you say "crude $200" if anything comes from this?
    Libyan rebels sold Hizballah and Hamas chemical shells
    DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 31, 2011, 11:24 AM (GMT+02:00)

    Iran Libyan rebels US Adm. James Stavridis
    Senior Libyan rebel “officers” sold Hizballah and Hamas thousands of chemical shells from the stocks of mustard and nerve gas that fell into rebel hands when they overran Muammar Qaddafi’s military facilities in and around Benghazi, debkafile’s exclusive sources report. The rebels offloaded an estimated 2,000 artillery shells carrying mustard gas and 1,200 nerve gas shells for cash payment amounting to several million dollars negotiated by Iran. The consignments may still be in Sudan en route for Lebanon and Gaza.

    Read more

  151. And Speaking of Ron Paul: Revealing of whose feeding from the Feds Discount Window

  152. Pablo

    Don't sweat it. We're all just doing the best we can with the resources at hand.

    I think there's a sort of unofficial protocol, often followed, but not universally so, of tending to leave out just enough detail so as to leave the actual scale of transactions unspecified. Three good reasons for it that I can think of:

    1) It's really nobody's business. Is anything truly secure. Why announce to the world that you just bought a roll of gold Eagles? Do you want someone showing up at your door?

    2) All info is equally valid and interesting. The buys, sells, links, thoughts, of those who are clearly swinging around larger amounts of money don't impress me as being smarter, better, or more valuable. If someone buys physical I'm happy for them. I don't care how many ounces. If we are talking stock trades I don't want or need to know how many shares. It's all good.

    3) Nobody likes a braggart!

  153. Anybody notice the time stamp seems to have switched from pacific to eastern somewhere over the last couple of days? Maybe I've just been a little detached lately.

  154. Hi Eric,

    Yes, somebody noted the change a couple of days ago. I think Turd is hiding where he really lives so he's taken a page out of the IBM playbook and is trying to hide his tracks. ;)

    /just kidding

  155. TF,
    The smoke has cleared from today's battle and what do my wondering eyes behold, but beautiful hand-crafted chart masterpieces! You are a gifted artist, my man! Thanks for sharing your talent with us buck privates.

  156. Just got home from work and cracked open a craft beer. Gonna have a couple more too. Thank
    you Turd for another week of great trading info.
    Crazy week in the grain trade (what I do). Not going to post off topic but IMHO corn doesn't stop until crude does. Don't buy this rally, wait and BTFD or use options. This market will get to big to trade before the summer is over.

    Just caught up with the posts this afternoon. Agree with other posts, miss those stories from Impala Driver.

  157. I see Gammon Gold finally won the war with Timmins to buy Capital Gold. I can see why they fought tooth and nail for it. I'd want to buy Capital Gold too.

  158. @ Moogle

    Yukon and Scott have posted quite a bit of good information on Revett (RVM.TO for the TSX listing). No DD on my end yet but I made a small bet on Revett out of respect for their opinion. Will do some snooping/research and hope for a pull back to add on.

    @ Others

    I have a question for that's been on my mind as of late.

    Assuming you had no MAJOR responsibilities (money-wise), what percentage of your net worth would you have invested in PM's?

    How much of your investment would be in physical and how would this change if your net worth were fairly low or somewhat high?

    Thanks in advance!

  159. Art said
    "IMHO corn doesn't stop until crude does"

    Just thinking out loud that might apply to gold and silver too. Just food for thought.

  160. I agree that corn doesn't stop until crude does, and the way it looks, crude isn't stopping anytime soon. However, crude prices usually don't rise like this unless there is a shortage and right now, at least in the US, there is no shortage of oil. The mid east situation definitely accounts for some of the oil price increase but imo commodities are all being driven higher by the accurate anticipation of inflation brought about by currency debasement. Corn planting intentions are the highest since 1944 and yet corn futures are approaching all time highs. Can only mean one thing, INFLATION is coming to a Wal-Mart near you. Heck, in a couple of years a box of Frosted Flakes may be worth as much as an ounce of silver is now.

  161. To clarify I wasn't wanting to sound like a complainer. But you can't help but envy someone who can pull the trigger and take delivery of $30K worth of metal the same way I would drop 43 bucks on an eagle :)

  162. Pablo...

    People that brag here about pulling the trigger on large buys are STUPID, period.

    It's a sign of ego, immaturity and a complete lack of understanding that anyone on this board with any savvy could or could hire someone, to figure out where they live.


    You can tell by the tenor of some people's posts as to whether or not they are PROBABLY heavy weights. Many of the others remind me of people who talk about the ONE time they won big at Vegas, not the ONE HUNDRED times they've lost.

    Chalk it up to "small penis syndrome." ;)

    Word verification: "funtiess"... whatever those are!

  163. The beauty of Turd's site is that small time investors like myself can "rub shoulders" with big investors and learn a boatload. It really has been and is a blessing to be able to witness this PM market unfold on this blog.

    Also, I know how much SLV is despised because of JPM and of course BM. But I am thankful for BM as she has given me and countless others time to get in on the ground floor while silver is still relatively cheap. And they can't win.

  164. @ Syk (Dang take 2... sorry this will be considerably shorter)

    Thank you for such great insights, and I agree with your major points concerning the movie, especially Jamie missing the bigger picture of what is going on. It just goes to show you how much someone can want to help bring upon change, but not understand the root of the disease. As many have said before, he is just looking at the symptoms.

    As for your now appropriately looming catch 22 that faces the world in the future is how to go about this change that we all can agree upon.

    We have gotten to the point where whatever happens, it will not be good in the short-term no matter what.

    Say we let the short-term work by diluting purchasing power (printing money) for everyone and trying to play a fine line between inflation and "economic growth." This will surely not work for everyone, and there will be even extremer gaps between the rich and the poor, even in industrialized "rich nations." Eventually, this too will pop and it will be just as devastating, but more because the political oppression that it would bring upon with it (does anyone really believe governments won't go for the takeover and impose financial martial law? "For our own good.").

    That, or we can educate enough people (5-10% of the world population should do), to understand the task in front of us. We do not need everyone to understand what is going on, as that would be impossible. I do not know the details on how it will happen, but I would imagine the sooner the better for any chance of transferring any sort of purchasing power from our current system to a new one. We must take ourselves out of this picture and look down the road at future generations. We must not constantly focus short term, and make long term moves. If we ended the Federal Reserve, we could end our wars, and a lot of other things. Imagine if we used the trillions of dollars we spend on wars on our own people instead of scraps off the table. The fundamentals will all change once we remove the economic suppression strangling humanity's dignity.

    I feel that anything less than examining the Federal Reserve, BIS, IMF, BOE, BOJ, EB, and other western empire banks will lead humanity into a new dark ages. We already have a steep ladder to climb back up, possibly built on the technological innovation suppressed by TPTB. A rather sick example that really sticks out is the cancer INDUSTRY from an economic standpoint. Do you think people who run the show would be willing to have the entire industry collapse (from an economic standpoint).

    The people that we are dealing with are evil and there is going to be misfortune and not all of us will make it through it...

    Anyways, once decision at a time and just try be comfortable with who you are. The one point in the movie that was mentioned at the end was with the taxi driver. Notice how the taxi driver says he is rich, in characteristics that money can't buy.

    This is not about money, and not about price discovery... I just say those things b/c it relates to precious metals talk right now. This is something much bigger we are watching in front of us :O

    What a time to be alive!

    Thank you for your comment,

  165. DarkPurple

    Can you say false flag?

  166. Ricky,

    I believe that the current state of the market demands you have at minimum 25% of your net worth in PM's with a maximum of whatever your comfortable with.

    As far as physical, here I believe your minimum exposure to physical as a percentage of your total PM portfolio should be at minimum 50% with again a maximum of whatever you're comfortable with.

    Personally, people underrate physical in my opinion. I know that's hard to believe but it's true. In my experience it depends on age more than anything. Someone who's older or had more time to accrue physical is more likely to be comfortable with the amount of physical they have. Whereas someone who's younger feels as if time is against them and they have to do whatever they can do including massive leveraged plays (futures, options, etc) to "catch up".

    I myself, use a portfolio with 50% physical metals, 25% natural resource stocks, and 25% cash as a base and move parts around as needed.

    That all said, everyone is different and everyone has to find out on their own what helps them sleep at night and give them warm and fuzzies.

    Hope this helped.


  167. @Fortinbras

    Your remarks are completely spot-on accurate about the presumed (and false) anonymity that the internet offers.

    On my own community site, I have seen our staff look into our troublemaker users to tell them to back off. And usually within hours they can take a completely generic username and track it back to a phone number, mailing address, family address, and even bore into intimate details like income, marital status, etc.

    If half-hearted college students can find this stuff, imagine someone with an actual agenda.

    For one's own personal safety it is always best to speak in generality and never boast too highly about one's good fortunes.

    And don't even get me started on idiots and their Facebook accounts...

  168. Apples... I'm smiling and I'm with you. I have some friends that work/worked in the IT intel field and it's astonishing how easy it is to dig... I'm with ya on FB and anyone who uses a Droid phone is a moron in my book... NSA is one thing, Google collecting EVERYTHING your phone does and where it goes is another.

  169. Ricky,

    I have obligations, and little excess income. My money is tight.
    I'm about
    20% physical PM's
    65% paper (miners mostly)
    15% lead and lead distribution systems.
    Home equity is near zero but I BTFD so that will change quickly with inflation.

    If I had more money, only two things would change. I would have purchased a 20+acre farmette (and someone to maintain it if I had THAT much money) and rented a crap apartment instead of buying my house on .5 acre. I would assemble tools for energy diversification to be more self sufficient. I would want to be able to utilize everything from wood to oil to solar and wind and not miss a beat in running my farm's core. Solar storm fried your electronics? Steam, baby. You can run trains on stoked mummies if you can find them in stock at the local museum.

    You can invest in PM's and make a lot of fiat simply by buying physical, which you must do to preserve the value of any fiat wins anyhow. I don't think diversification is a plan of action, but rather inaction. The long term goal is survival beyond the dollar and beating the system in the interim, right? Physical PM's, food, and land hedged with lead is all anyone need focus on @ any budget. You'll be out a lot of money before those are met, and they are all 100% safe bets for a good while. Farmable land = money. Food will cost more tomorrow. PM's will beat paper currency. Lead will produce meat on demand and prevent loss of other investments.

    There's a guy in the US right now building a 100,000 sq ft house, of insulated concrete, on a single family zoned plot. I recall about 20,000 of that to be underground "storage." He may not be nice, but he's certainly not dumb. That's a lot of insulation and storage for 4 people. We should all have that kind of portfolio, and furniture to fill it.

  170. A couple of thoughts I'd like to add from the comments tonight.

    Fist of all @ Pablo.

    Dude, don't worry about the $$$ values tossed around by anyone with respect to their physical purchases. It's all about what Turd has at the top of the blog "The end of the Keynesian experiment is upon us - prepare accordingly."

    To me that means doing what's best for you and yours in terms of maintaining your wealth. If that's one ASE per month or a monster box, so be it. It's all relative. Keep plugging away - you're on the right track.

    To follow up on Yukon's comment. Get physical to the extent you're personal situation allows.

    In my case, I'm middle aged, with kids, living the typical suburban life outside of a major US city. I'm currently allocated as follows:
    1 - 40% physical (been buying monthly since June '08)
    2 - 30% cash
    3 - 15% PHYS and PSLV
    4 - 10% GDX & GDXJ
    5 - 5% GPL, CDE and EXK

    That suits where I'm at in life. Outside of the portfolio, I have a VERY small property in rural KY near a river and have developed very deep ties with my gun-toting neighbors there. They raise cattle, chickens and catfish, and I develop electro-mechanical gizmos for their agricultural operations (mechanical engineer by trade) as a neighborly thing to do. I can count on their support if the SHTF. My goal is to take advantage of what I do for a living to help them out, and they in turn have been really generous in terms of watching our place while we're away. Additionally, they have introduced me to a totally underground barter economy. No one there actually "pays cash" for anything. No tax liability results, and relationships count for everything. Need a boat? No problem, how about trading a horse trailer for one. Need a window AC unit? I have a chainsaw that I'd swap. The cool thing about the bartering is that people begin to trust you and vise versa. The old traditions of honor, integrity and trust reappear. Good stuff.

  171. apples & fortinbras: yep... it's all available if you dig hard enuff. Once had a troll on one of the message boards I was active on. He threatened someone with violence (which is a crime and also against the TOS of most providers). Only took his IP address and a call to his service provider to shock him into reality again. I guess unless you are using an Internet cafe and maybe a combination of anonymous remailer you can be found.

  172. Baring any outbreaks of war, nuclear meltdowns or earthquakes, I'm thinking the media will turn its attention to the US budget and the possiblity of a guvmet shutdown. This should provide lots of fodder for the talking heads and the pols on both sides of the aisle will be positioning themselves in front of the cameras advancing their cause/agenda. In other words there will be a lot of noise and the markets will be jumpy.

    As it stands now, Apr 8 is "D-Day" to pass another continuing resolution or some form of limited shutdown.

    Am wondering what everyone's thoughts are concerning this and how might the PMs be affected for the near term. Thanks

  173. I am interested in revette, but its not on the typical big boy exchange yet, so I will await. but thanks for the tip.

  174. Turd,

    In an earlier thread you mentioned that a US default was impossible. Would you be so kind as to elaborate below or in a new thread? I have heard much hyperbole on this topic, but not a lot of specific rational thoughts. Any light you could shed on this would be very much appreciated as I am considering loading up on some some physical (again), but the propaganda machine is really fucking with my head right now.

    Best regards,
    John Bigboote

  175. John Bigboote....

    I LOVE the Buckaroo Banzai reference!

  176. Turd, any comment on Martin Armstrong possible scenario of Gold correcting to $1100?, if that is the case, what about Silver?...what I understand about the "$1100" consolidation is only if gold does not hold the up-long trend between 1971-99 in a monthly closing during 2011. January was the only to see Gold under that target; $1320 actually...then for Feb and Mar has hold well over $1372...Armstrong stated that if that is the case (holding $1372) we will be starting a dramatic rally into 2015-16 right after June 2011....What do you think about this?, how QE will play in this scenario?, any thogths please, many thanks.

  177. Did anyone look at GPL's audited statements? I find it odd that it's still a sub $5 stock. Just curious.

  178. moogle - Just read the threads - people have listed the stocks they own many times. Even a fairly quick scan will lead to you lots of detailed conversations. GPL is popular here, also trades as GPR on the TSX. It was discussed a lot in the last few days re stock dilution. And a few posters let you know real time what they are trading. Have you started buying physical yet? Dollar cost averaging doesn't unfortunately hold when it comes to accumulating physical. It would have been best to buy all you could years ago. But having said that:

    Pablo - don't worry. I have often marveled at the way people can get by on such ridiculously different amounts of money. We are surrounded by super rich people who are deeply unhappy. If you can walk the dog by the river, so to speak, then you are rich in my books. But I did get a few silver rounds online from GPR - came within 3 weeks (March 10 ordered, arrived March 25) and they are beautiful.

    Ricky - I honestly think if I was rolling in cash and had no other responsibilities, I would have put 75% physical and traded 25%. And despite obligations I think we have about 50% of our net worth in PMs? But when I say 'worth' no need to break down my doot - unless you want to find out if one girl's trash is another man's treasure.

  179. THOMAS...
    I kept having problems posting with my Wordpress ID, so I gave up and set up an account at
    I detest doing anything with Google, but I had to do it....which means, I must be very loyal to the TURD and all the gang to give my name to Google...

    Just set up the account so you can sign in and post easily to eblogger...a lot of good blogs are on it, ie SilverGoldSilver, for one. I think Trader Dan, too. You don't actully have to create a blog or get an gmail acccount.

  180. daeguas - I sound like a broken record - but that article has been put to rest a while back - Turd has been asked many times. He does not agree with Armstrong and if you search back (just search Armstrong's name) you can easily find it. But this is at least the 4th time it has been raised and clearly Turd has different targets which he has written about extensively.

  181. Insight - I log on with my Google id and almost never have problems. But do copy any long comments when you have finished typing them. Saves a lot of heartache and it is always the long ones that seem to disappear.

  182. @ Old Navy

    I don't usually miss comments in threads I participate in. And I appreciate the concern, but do not worry, I am not a traveling salesman with shiny coins. I use judgment when it is appropriate vs inappropriate. Thank you for your concern though :)

  183. I'll probably get cussed out for this but it appears to me that SGS is doing a pump and dump with Tinka.

    The companies website shows that there is no geologist and no geological engineer, but a guy with a geological designations from some institutes, who runs another company that is not noteworthy. The rest of management consists of 4 people with financial backgrounds.

    Tinka holds 3 properties in peru, one with drill results dating back to 2007, the others without data (one is being sold to lara). Apparently nothing has been done to the main property (colquipucro) since 2007 except for some recent drill permit issuing. Colquipucro has 20.3 mil inferred oz Ag, i couldn't find the indicated. And it states more drilling is necessary to see if a feasibility study should be conducted. There was some drilling done on a property in australia in 2009, but now there is no mention of the property on the website???

    So there is certainly no production or mine development in the near future, and additionally, the stock has been range bound below $.70 for 7 years. Are they slowly milking this company for all they can get?

    They have less than a million in cash on hand, so significant dilution will be necessary to move forward.

    What Tinka does have going for it is low shares outstanding (61 mil fully diluted) and Peru is relatively stable.

    So either SGS has inside info (buyout coming? Drill results indicating feasibility?) or has chosen to pump this stock for god knows what reason when there are tons of other junior miners in or near production with better outlooks.

    Perhaps my interpretation of the website is incorrect (I probably missed some stuff) and someone can enlighten me to why Tinka is a good investment?

  184. Here is a link with defined mine industry terminology that may be helpful to some for due diligence.


  185. @ Fortinbras and John Bigboote,

    Agree! Buckaroo Banzai is the best movie nobody's ever heard of.

  186. bbdgoco ---Yes April 8 keeps coming up as a day to watch. Just as March 11 kept coming up weeks before the Earthquake hit. April 8 keeps coming up as day of Financial storm.


    First images of the new Amero currency


    It's strange, because I thought that Silver Eagles HAVE TO BE created from silver mined in U.S.??

  189. @Robert Leroy Parker on TKKRFF
    IMO this doesn't look like a pump & dump. The Tinka website does seem thin and it is odd that they don't employ a geologist, but that report from 07 was composed by someone with experience. A consultant? Although, I am not sure they need one until they do more drilling and have core samples to analyze. SGS has told his followers his buy prices. I don't think he paid over .45, which is the stock option price for the 500K shares the board received. I have not seen him pump the stock since it went over .55 like he did in the 45-55 range. At these levels, there is not that much downside risk. Perhaps the location combined with the low price of silver until recently has limited production. 37 silver could change that. But your point is taken about the small infrastructure. 98% of my portfolio is in physical, but I bought 500 shares at .64 and set my stop at .59. Call me a venture capitalist. If it hits SGS's lowest projections, I'll regret not getting more.

  190. Parker

    Yukon Cornelius mentions Tinka all the time on his blog. I don't have a horse in this race so I'm just going to get some popcorn and watch the sparks fly!

    All I can say is I looked at it a month or so ago, and chose not to buy it. Though I did write down the name to check in on now and then.

  191. Just caught the KWN Weekly Metals Wrap. IMHO, Trader Dan has a VERY important discussion of the difficulties that the Fed is facing in trying to save both the dollar and the bond market at the same time. Not to be missed.

  192. "Enjoy your Friday. Smile and lift an adult beverage. Be happy. Have fun."

    That kinda cheered me up. Thanks Turd.

  193. Markus

    I've a feeling everybody took TF's words to heart. Looks like folks mostly sleeping in today.

  194. JUst did another quick check on Sandstorm Gold. I dunno. Feels fully valued to me.

  195. Trader Dan's comments at KWN are really just an audio discussion of his post on his blog. VERY important either way.

  196. Here's a little nugget off of Jim Rickards twitter feed before I head out the door for the day.

    "On trend, US economy at full-employment will be 15 people making $1 Trillion/yr each & 300 million people at a buck a year"