Thursday, April 7, 2011

Greed vs Fear

Greed is winning. Turd is getting antsy.

As you know, I exited all of my silver calls two days ago. I expected some mid-week selling pressure that could take us back toward 38.25. Hasn't happened. The darn PMs have tried to roll over but that keep catching bids at the same level every time. Because of that, the levels are now reasonably stout support that may not get violated. Throw in some WTI at $110 and ole Turd is itching to buy some May silver calls. I still own all of my June 1500 gold calls. Not touching them for a while. However, as described in this morning's thread, the May silver train may be about to leave the station. IF the pattern from February repeats, we could see $45 silver by the 21st or 24th of this month. As always, I will let you know what I decide.  More later this afternoon or early this evening. TF

253 comments:

  1. Silver is forming a nice symmetrical triangle that is growing tight.. and usually viewed as a continuation pattern. Will the strength in oil and gold pull it higher? Or will we break down to find support in the $38's?

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  2. Damn 2nd again. Probably 10th by now.

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  3. Does anybody else enjoy this choppy action?

    Thinking. Waiting. More waiting. More thinking.

    Place your bets, don't miss the break we make. You had time!

    Xty, your 40 call is all tee'd up perfectly...will we do it?

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  4. Check the 1 minute charts for XAG/USD and XAU/USD.

    XAU drifting down, but XAG gets bid up on the dips slowly slowly.

    I have some trades on but they're small.

    For rare earthers here, REE and AVL getting some love (+15% and 8%).

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  5. Top of the wedge is at $39.67. The bottom is at $39.35.

    39.67 - 39.35 = .32

    An upside breaks points to a $39.67 + .32 equating to a price point of $39.99.

    Buy em while they're cheap..

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  6. Gold guest coming up on CNBC, Newmont Mining CEO.

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  7. Stephen,

    Just might hold on to those SLW shares. $45 silver Turd predicts.

    Holy shit.

    By the 21st or 24th.

    Seriously, I'm still selling off the SLW trades from today. $45.84. I'll make $650. Gotta take the base hits.

    Hasn't happened yet though.

    SK

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  8. NEM is on fire today. Upped their gold production considerably.

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  9. I want to open a real gambling/possible daytrading account mostly for stocks under $1. Therefore higher volume. Can anybody recommend a decent inexpensive broker that has either a flat fee for over 1,000 shares or real cheapo pricing and also has buying international exchanges - like the Vancouver Exchange - on it and does not charge some horrendous fee for that too?

    Thanks in advance.

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  10. Looks like all they can do is try and keep a lid on it below 40 and 1460. It's only a matter of time (measured in days) before we go through those numbers.
    the big short term question now is will we have a govt shutdown and what effect will that have?
    I saw a poll on CNN said 39% were in favor of the shutdown but they only mentioned that 59% were against it. I thought it quite significant that 39% said they were in favor-I think that's remarkable.

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  11. Something near $45 definitely doesn't seem too far of a reach by the end of the month, all we need is that push above $40 and I still think we'll see that by closing tomorrow.

    Ha ha, poor DarkPurpleHaze, you keep getting beat for 1st by mere seconds probably each time. Hang in there, you'll get it eventually!

    We should start placing bets on who we think will get the first comment on the next thread. I'll go heavy on DPH.

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  12. DPH TY for offering me some much needed coaching. And TY SSK for an update on your SLW play. I need to drag myself away from computer and go run some errands right now. I should have a chance to check computer when I am back before market closes and before I then need to run off to work at 1 pm tucson time (a small remodeling job I scheduled to start after market close today). I appreciate the help I get here; back later.

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  13. Tales From the Front:

    Stopped by my favorite coin shop on the way into the office. Same old story on silver. Goes out as fast as it comes in. A little more color on the gold story. Here's a quote from the coin shop guy, who's been in the biz for years:

    "I used to routinely buy 25 ounces of gold a month. Eagles, Maples, Krugerrands, Sovereigns, Pesos, you name it. Now, nothing's coming in. Dead flat nothing. I think the guys who have this stuff socked away are starting to realize that they really have something there, and are not going to part with it. Period."

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  14. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/surprising-observations-trimtabs-are-central-bankers-loading-gold

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  15. @ Irene
    IB-Interactive brokers hands down cheapest, direct access to all global rxchanges and very reliable.
    good luck

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  16. Thanks, Wandee. I'll check it out. ;)

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  17. I love the confidence about the May Train about to take off. I feel the exact same way, and I often forget that the Turd is spot on with overwhelmingly bullish beliefs on gold/silver as sound currency.

    Which came first? The Turd or the Turdite?

    I for one have no idea...

    Gold looking juicy, and I doubt silver moves without gold making a nice move as well. And we need oil to go to have a move in gold? Well there are plenty of headlines from Zerohedge today...

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gaddafi-starts-bombarding-his-own-oil-fields

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/us-energy-secretary-expresses-great-concern-due-high-oil-price-saudi-oil-output-declines

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/surprising-observations-trimtabs-are-central-bankers-loading-gold

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/another-day-another-record-high-gold

    ---

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  18. Wandee

    I imagine you use IB ... I have toyed with the idea of switching to them but would like to get a better feel for their pricing structure. Could you please elaborate on the cost/volume of trades. Is it even relavent? Are there a certain amount of trades per/month/quarter that is required to be cost effective? How many trades do you do to meet requirements if necessary, if you don't mind me asking? ... Thanks

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  19. Thanks Turd, how do you calculate your stops on Silver? it's my achilles heel, fear leads me to make them too tight and i'm dying of the 1000 paper cuts syndrome.

    thanks for creating this community, it's a real comfort when things don't go to plan.

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  20. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  21. Irene, try out IB's demo software before you start trading. The user interface takes some getting used to.

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  22. oil really jumping. Eventually and sooner than later this has to pull up Gold and Silver. Gold and Silver like great trekkers had been leading and they wanted just one day's rest but this may not be the case now. Have yet to see the 2nd leg down of the abcd waterfall pattern which makes things appear bullish. Buyers stepping in. They may not want to miss a sudden blast to 1500. Then again, Gold almost always sells hard after just making new highs. Who knows?

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  23. I couldn't stop myself. I just bought some May 40s and some May 41s.
    Clearly, I have issues.

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  24. Guys and gals, I’m soliciting some advice that is off topic
    ----Big problem. I live in Phoenix, land of the housing collapse. My house is currently $90K underwater. Owe $275, worth $185. I’m taking out a 401K loan for 40K……….I have some physical, but not nearly as much as I would like, I also have some SLW and assorted miners…..So, If you were me, would you?
    --Use the 40k to buy more physical and silver miners
    --Buy another house (rent the current house) with the money and basically double down on the housing market. If we do see hyperinflation, the dollar debt should eventually go away or be reduced drastically, but in the mean time I’d be eating $-750 monthly, as rent wouldn’t cover the mortgage.
    --The last option that some advise (not my inclination) is to strategically default on the house…and just buy more silver.
    -anyone have any ideas / in a similar situation? My wife does not have the same sense of urgency that I have.

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  25. A Libya SNAFU could send oil sky-high (taking the PMs with it?). Traders know OPEC can't lift production significantly.

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  26. yeah i know the feeling. keep thinking "hey dude where's my takedown?"

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  27. Turd has a fever...and the only prescription is more silver cowbell.

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  28. Just recieved a small, fairly heavy package in the mail...;-D
    Had to get myself a small B-Day gift.
    Checking out some 1/2 oz. Sunshine Mint Ag rounds at the moment. Liking it!
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    I can not stand being out of the PM market and feel like I'm about to miss the boat.
    PM investing withdrawl symptoms? It's only been 24 hrs. for me. Christ!
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    I can't shake the feeling that if the Govt. shutdown temporarily that the PM's will go up and not tank like the broad market usually would thus dragging the miners down etc.
    We're in uncharted territory regarding the potential market reaction vs. PM's this time around IMHO.
    I hate being out of the market for any length of time. Good thing that package happened today.
    I guess that's my daily fix.

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  29. Dude, watch the ebay silver auctions for a true pulse. The answer is in the masses my boy.

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  30. Eric#1,

    That's interesting. Our local coin shop here has silver and gold coins and ingots laying all over the place. I'm not kidding. Every single flat surface of it is covered with gold and silver and the sellers are in big time. I'll see if I can get my wife to snap a picture of some of it next time she's there.

    Obviously there's some regional differences in play, and from what I've heard a lot of these guys coming in are older and have probably worked for the mines or their family has and have a lot of stuff they've picked up a long the way.

    She was telling me in the car yesterday that the shop was buying at $39 and selling at $43 yesterday. She also showed me her BU 1986 American Silver Eagle she picked up that someone thoughtlessly sold yesterday. We've given it a new home and I've been marveling over how much better the old high relief ASE's are than the new ones.

    Yukon

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  31. Japan nuclear clusterflock + aftershock + Libya fun = higher PMs in Asian trading?

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  32. @chin:
    no minimum on trades 10k to open the account.
    the commission rate can get very complicated but it's so low it doesn't matter. for most stocks it's $1 per hundred shares but it caps out around $5-6. that enables you to scale in out in small increments which I like.
    you do have to pay for quotes depending on how many trades you make and if you want tsx quotes etc. I pay about $15/mo for that and options quotes.
    it can be a little confusing at first but I've saved thousands annually in commissions compared to schwab or fidelity and the access to the tsx/v exchanges is invaluable-good luck

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  33. Turd...lol!
    If your going to have issue's, they may as well be Silver/Gold issue's.

    I hear ya', this crude price going up has me thinking the boat may just pull away slowly like the price of crude is doing.
    I see nothing dramatic happening upwards at this point. Just a steady rise.
    Damn! Now I have issue's!

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  34. @KC
    If I was in your position, there's only one question that would weigh on me - "How stable is my income?" My guess is your ability to afford that mortgage, regardless of it's market or re-sale value, is based on your/wife's income. Right? If you're feeling secure and don't like default then stick. If you're not secure then start looking into exit strategies.

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  35. KC,
    I was recently in a situation like yours, but not anymore. Buy physical.

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  36. @KC
    I'm no expert, but my sis is near ground zero, CA.
    There, the game is to find a buyer yourself, then go to the bank and negotiate. I suppose the threat of strategic default is your hammer.
    The possibility of getting out without a default is your incentive.

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  37. @Yukon

    Your dead accurate.

    Being from Canada, a good portion of the population came over here as a result of war at some point or other. I was over at my father-in-law's place yesterday and we were comparing notes on what happend during our respective countries times of tribulation. My family being from Europe and his from the Middle East. Both families went through war, inflation.

    So his family owned land and were financially stable and relatively self sufficient. The climate where they lived was ideal for growing and so they grew their own fruit & vegetables.

    On another plot of land the family still owns today there is an appartment building that provided a decent income to the family.

    During their wars trade stopped almost completely. Basic necessities of life such as food was hard to obtain and inflation made paper currency almost worthless.

    The appartment building still generated income, however the currency was worthless so rental income became worthless. Laws ensured people living there were protected and those families contine to live there today (essentially rent free). In Canada I know rental laws also are similar in that one cannot increase rent by over 5% annually. So what happens if $1 becomes worth $.001 due to inflation?

    In the hardest times, a sheik had vast sums of wealth in terms of money, land, etc. With all his wealth and land, wealth did not provide food during this period of unrest and he asked for (and was willing to pay for) food from the family's land. Of course the family helped the sheik through those times without accepting money. Once the period stabilized the sheikh gave the family some land in gratitude.

    My family owned land in Europe before the wars, My grandfather was a mayor back home and the family would have been considered wealthy back then. My father was among those who came to Canada with nothing more than a backpack on his back during the wars. As I understand it, the family had sold their property and were in "Cash" just as the currency collapsed rendering whatever cash you had personally on hand worthless.

    What I take out of this is to 1) be prepared for the worst. Even "stuff" like pm's will not help you eat if SHTF. 2) If your prepared, holding "Stuff" that can be traded for any currency then the time and need arises is better than holding FIAT.

    One can never be too prepared.

    Sorry for the long post but hope it helps some prepare.

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  38. KC: As to strategically defaulting on the house: what are your current monthly costs for the house (mortgage, taxes, insurance...) vs the rental cost for an equivalent house? If you wouldn't save substantially by switching to renting, don't even consider it.
    As to buying another house for investment; I think there is a good possibility housing prices will continue to decline. The best site to follow for housing is probably Calculated Risk:
    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/

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  39. Attention K-Mart shoppers: blue light special on the grains.

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  40. Thanks TF for sharing your insights and your trade ideas. This blog is better than my two paid subscription sites! I gotta hang out here!

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  41. just nibbled exk not much to worry just enough to watch price

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  42. Ha ha, check this out:

    "The federal government incurred a budget deficit of $830 billion in the first six months of fiscal year 2011, CBO estimates—$113 billion more than the shortfall recorded in the same period last year. Outlays and revenues are both higher than they were last year at this time, by 11 percent and 7 percent, respectively."

    Straight from CBO.gov.

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  43. I hit my call on Oil $110..One silver monster box coming my way...DUG just might be a play here.

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  44. Developing:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/netanyahu-spokesman-says-war-may-break-out-between-israel-and-gaza-early-tonight

    ME clusterflock in formation

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  45. Thanks for the replies.....yes, we'd save quite a bit by renting, but my intimation is that it's better to hold the debt as inflation will eventually reduce it. Primarily, I'm trying to decide If I should use my loan to just buy silver or get another property..... what is the best option to protect my family.

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  46. @ KC

    Buying another house from an already overly supplied real estate market, especially when you know there's more to be on sale, is unlikely to be a good idea. You wanna put your depreciating FIAT dollar on the stuff that has the best shot to appreciate, so I'll say stick to the PMs. If silver is too volatile for you then focus more on gold.

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  47. could someone pls help me with the ticker symbol you guys are following for prices? I have always used SLV and GLD as proxies b/c i only trade stock and options. i see that (in thinkorswim) the ticker for gold futures is /GC...but the silver one is /ZI which is for 5000oz of silver and shows price of 18.196...clearly i am looking at wrong symbol

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  48. @KC...I agree with pekar.

    Go to your lender and tell them you might default and if they can prove they have actual title or hold the mortgage etc. (MERS?)

    No loss in using the hammer you have. No harm in your credit rating just talking about it etc.
    You never know what they may try to accomodate you with. (Lower your principal???)
    Look online for strategies as bizarre as that sounds. This housing market is not normal and non-traditional ways of handling it or thinking about it is in order.

    Personally I wouldn't rent my house out. If the market or dollar crashes then being a landlord at that point with a tenant who may be hurting financially will be a worse situation to be in.

    Use your house hammer while it's still a tool.
    Your wife might like the idea of trying to reduce your principal somehow. That will make the silver buying easier maybe :-)

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  49. KC

    to add to what Pailin said .... DO NOT / DO NOT double down on the housing market ... there is more downside to come and you will be just going deeper in debt.

    I have spent most of my now in the toilet career in and around the housing market. Reassess housing in 2013 - 2014 but don't hold your breath.

    Renting out your place can also be a nightmare as renters can lose their job and laws can have them living off you free 6 months to a year.

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  50. somebody here reced SNDX her not so long ago im up 16% didnt buy much though

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  51. KC,
    If you don't have at least several thousand ounces of silver (or the gold equivalent), then you and your family NEED more physical. Just my opinion.

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  52. ignore it...it is /SI (duh)

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  53. KC,

    Definitely worth the money to get a good attorney to investigate whether there exist a clear chain of ownership for the house.

    You may be pleasantly surprised to find you are one of the many homeowners where the bank really DOESN'T have a clear ownership deed bc of all the slicing, dicing and selling of mortgages that has gone on.

    If that is true, you have a lot of options and much more leverage with the bank.

    http://blog.floridaforeclosurelawyer.org/2010/10/12/who-really-owns-your-mortgage-who-knows/

    Worth an investigation...

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  54. Didn't the peaceloving Egyptian pres candidate elBaradei just say that, if elected, he would declare war on Israel if they attack gaza?

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  55. Ijust read what Sumo related regarding Israel and I'm now thinking of jumping back in.
    Thanks for the heads up.
    PM's and crude will skyrocket and could be the reason also for crude's steady rise.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    I'm joining you Turd, as soon as I look around and get a feel for the situation overall.
    Pretty sure my gut has been telling me the whole time since late yesterday.

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  56. Yes he did Turd regarding el Baredei.

    GTG....Options account beckons.

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  57. Well, doesn't that beat all.
    Now it's double printed.
    Sorry for this but I posted it per usual.
    Oh well, such is life, I suppose.

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  58. Money ready in brokerage account to buy miners on dip - CHECK

    Money ready to buy physical on dip - CHECK

    Two days spent attentively following stocks and spot price - CHECK

    Dip?

    DIP!!?

    Who forgot to book the dip? Come on, own up...

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  59. KC,

    I will not suggest a course of action for you because a decision such as this is one best thought over at length and with much deliberation.

    I will simply ask you this and let it guide you as it will. Do you believe the dollar will continue to fall? If so, what effect will a weaker dollar have on your loan and what effect will it have on precious metals?

    Yukon

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  60. I don't recall seeing this being posted re article by Ted Butler where he connect to a peech made by Lydon Johnson back on 23July'65.
    Just to wet yr appetite an excerpt from Ted's article titled:
    Silver Metal Investment - A Presidential Bombshell, By: Theodore Butler
    silver-metal-investment.blogspot.com
    APRIL 05, 2011

    Ecerpt: "Thanks to a poster on the Internet (hat-tip to Cajun Coin), I had the opportunity to read the speech that President Lyndon Johnson made on July 23, 1965, in which he announced the US Government’s plan to remove silver from coinage. http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=27108 I had not read the speech before. The President said this was the first change in our nation’s coinage in 173 years, since the very first Coinage Act of 1792. Talk about historical.

    Allow me to excerpt the pertinent sections of the President’s speech. Please remember that these are his words, not mine:

    "Now, all of you know these changes are necessary for a very simple reason--silver is a scarce material. Our uses of silver are growing as our population and our economy grows. The hard fact is that silver consumption is now more than double new silver production each year. So, in the face of this worldwide shortage of silver, and our rapidly growing need for coins, the only really prudent course was to reduce our dependence upon silver for making our coins."

    ..........

    Link: http://goldsilver.com/news/silver-metal-investment-a-presidential-bombshell-by-theodore-butler/

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  61. Yukon

    Wow, that IS really interesting. I used to think that a visit to one or two shops would be really representative. I've been having doubts, and now your experience really tears it. I'm starting to wonder if these reports have any value at all.

    Every shop seems to have a different regular clientele. Some are all old time gold bugs, some are all ladies selling jewelry, etc. So I'm beginning to realize that it's not very useful to generalize. Thanks for that feedback.

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  62. KC, just one more thought. AZ is a non-recourse state (under certain circumstances, of course). So, even with a straight default, the bank is statutorily prohibited from seeking a deficiency judgment. Quite a positive to default in AZ as opposed to other states. IMHO, valuations could take decades, if not forever, to recover. Again, seek competent advice to ensure you can take full advantage of the anti-deficiency statute, but that's definitely something positive to consider while contemplating a default.

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  63. Had to scan, will go back and catch up - what a great blog - thanks so much, Turd!

    Stefan - we might well see $40 today, but Brad suggested 39.99 - might happen just to spite me. But I think we are seeing the beginning of 'disorderly to the upside.;

    Yukon - I am not looking for safety with the small amount I threw at Tinka so maybe I will hang in there - it is the riskiest of my miners I think, and my smallest stake.

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  64. Well this is flat out boring. Ping pong. Up and down a small channel. If I didn't have so much money in the game, I'd go play tennis. I'm beginning to think two things: EXK is never gonna dip and SLW is never gonna break out.


    SK

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  65. Thanks a lot guys, I'll save the thread and do much sole searching. I definitely know the dollar will decline and PM will do the opposite. My wife is conservative and doesn't want to put all of our eggs in one basket. I already bought more physical than I told her about. Shhh, don't tell. We need A LOT more in my opinion....well I appreciate all the time and advice. The sad part is that I've been worried about the dollar for 8 years but always thought it would manifest in higher interest rates...wish I got on the PM train a lot sooner....I guess the old quote is still good "Better late than pregnant" KC out

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  66. Could the EE be waiting for the Fed to announce an end to QE in June, thus tanking commodities and allowing them to cover their naked shorts?

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  67. With my hit or miss ability to make money in purchasing call options, I have switched to vertical spread trades on SLV and AGQ. They are earning modest gains in this choppy action and do very well when silver moves up. Sideways action is just fine with me. the longer it stays at the level, the more my confidence grows about the coming upside move.

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  68. Eric#1,

    I think we have to remember that there is a great likelihood that these older folks selling were a part of the 1979/1980 run up. Some of them may have even bought at the top and rode it all the way down. I'm sure some of them swore that come hell or high water they wouldn't sell until it was at $40 again.

    Imagine the great irony there and the great double blow they have taken when they realize that there 1979/1980 dollar was much more powerful and stable then than it is now. That they have in fact been swindled twice and both as a result of their own ignorance. That's not a very comforting or happy thought is it.

    Each of us might be the only individual in each of our families with the knowledge and means to help protect our families wealth. I like to think those people coming in and selling are getting cash to buy land to live a more self sufficient life or that they're exchanging it for gold (and some are). Because the idea that someone's grandparents are selling the one thing that is truly wealth and transferable to future generations for fiat is almost too sad to contemplate.

    Yukon

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  69. Did it, back in! Whew!

    GG and SLW OTM calls Jan 12' much cheaper then what I sold them at yesterday eventhough Au and Ag are relatively the same price as yesterday when I dumped them. Good feeling.
    SHTF and I'm covered by time.
    My SDS is starting to creep up as I hear on TV the Govt. passed another one week continuing resolutions bill.
    Who runs a business that way, much less a country?

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  70. Threats to attack Israel... it seems "Democracy" and "freedom" is breaking out all over the Mideast. Wonder if we supplied the bullets and bombs?

    With this extra week extension of a Guv'ment budget, maybe the two-headed, four-fisted spending snake of US politicos will have the time to invade, uh, fund, er, support another round of Mideast mercenaries, uh, I mean "freedom fighters"... to facilitate another regime overthrow, uh, no, make that... democratically elected system of government.

    Just trying to be diplomatic here. Probably would be best just to stick to pm's and veggie gardening.

    Give Peas a chance...

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  71. Truly remarkable new report from Adrian Douglas just posted on Zero Hedge. Go read it now!

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  72. SSK....Maybe not today regarding SLW but it will breakout. Hang tough and just know your right.
    I just bought some myself.

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  73. Whilst we're all waiting for more than a $0.02 swing in silver price, has anyone got any thoughts on Triple Plate Junction (LON:TPJ)? It's an explorer in Vietnam and Papua New Guinea.

    Seems to have good links with some of the biggies (NEM, Barrick and others)and they've just got some encouraging drilling results in Papua New Guinea. Share price has gone from 6.60 to 7.25 on the news, but I'm thinking that if the miners breakout properly soon, this could get carried with them, yielding a pretty nice percentage in the process. I'm tempted to buy in if it dips back below 7.00.

    Am NOT pumping here (I don't own any TPJ - yet), but thought I'd raise it as I've not seen it mentioned on this blog before. Would be interested in any comments, postive or negative.

    DC

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  74. Turd,

    Don't see anything by a Adrian Douglas on ZH. Got a link. Sorry if I'm being a retard.

    SK

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  75. That bullion bank article had me reading it with my mouth hanging open.
    Holy crap, thats alot of gold activity!
    The numbers were staggering.
    Can't help but feel reassured we are on the brink of something huge.
    All it will take is a nudge.

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  76. SSK
    "I'm beginning to think two things: EXK is never gonna dip and SLW is never gonna break out."

    Let me second that for you! Got me all worked up too 'cause I'm still waiting to BTFD. ;)

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  77. Just got back . . . 5 minute spot silver chart looks like a wound up spring ready to explode . . . what happening?

    I'm long SLW GDX and ABX (getting hammered on ABX for some reason)

    Did I buy again too soon?

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  78. Kc
    I have done some work in this area, and I would say do a lot of research and talk to your lawyer. Yes, the math of renting rather than owning may work out, but your credit will be ruined. As many have ruined credit, this may not be a concern to lenders as much in the future. Definitely would not buy more property if I were in your shoes. When you try to renegotiate with the bank, don't use the words strategic default, but just say you're in danger of defaulting. Honestly, the banks have little incentive to renegotiate and the whole process is a nightmare.

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  79. Hey silver may be stuck, but at a pretty fine level. And look at gold - making a move?

    KC:

    "I guess the old quote is still good "Better late than pregnant" KC out" - lol

    And just to add to the question of what is silver worth and what would you trade it for, I feel that the physical we have is one of the last things I would part with and would hope to pass on to my children, untouched (except when we roll around in it - well, at least hold it in our hands). I do not feel the same way about my shares in Loblaws.

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  80. ON Adrian Douglass,
    I agree with his conclusions...
    It is reasonable to conclude that the bankers who invented fractional reserve banking and stretched it beyond sensible limits with fiat would also practice it with gold & silver (a much smaller market) and stretch it beyond reasonable limits. Turd, you and Harvey have me convinced that there is very little physical in any of these vaults... the COMEX and LMBA simply shuffle what little PM bullion there is around where it is needed today--with industrial users taking possession of of what they need. If other sovereigns are taking possession and moving it to their shores, what happens when industry can't get what they require? Perhaps we are already there...

    ReplyDelete
  81. Endlessmountain has some interesting musings about playing the $40 to $50 move in silver.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PgZ1jj_FsQ&feature=feedu

    ReplyDelete
  82. This is likely the Adrian article on ZH that TURD made reference to:
    Guest Post: Bullion Bank Trading – A Closely Guarded Secret
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/07/2011 14:30 -0400
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-bullion-bank-trading-%E2%80%93-closely-guarded-secret

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  83. Irene I caved earlier and added SLW and GDX long positions to existing ABX. Prior I was completely out and waiting to BTFD. I admit to being weak. But I kept lots of dry powder just in case.

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  84. And as to the dip, I would like to summon the ghosts of ObsoleteMan, Me, Mythblaster, the f*($#%$ing Hamster, et al, and suggest that the dip really might not be coming this time. There doesn't seem to be any will in the take downs of either metal, and there are consistently, as Turd says, buyers jumping in. And now gold is sneaking up.

    If Egypt attacks Israel, all bets are off. I certainly hope we treat the Jewish people better than we did in WWII.

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  85. All:

    I'm willing to dare to be stupid, but I'm thinking it far more likely the dips may be replaced with rips.

    BTFR, and hang on tight

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  86. Where is the smack down???? I got out of FR and EDR last night and made nice profits thinking I would buy back in when they got crushed Thurs/Fri...

    If Blythe isn't/can't play ball anymore then I may as well just buy and hold.

    Frick. I'm gonna be pissed if I have to buy backinhigher than where I sold!!!!

    Comon Baby B. do yer job!!!!

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  87. Well since things are range-bound

    Blyth got back

    I like big moves and I can not lie
    You other brothers can't deny
    That when a market ranges with itty bitty moves
    And a round of minipulation in your in your face
    You get sprung, wanna pull out tour tough
    Cause you notice the markets are stuffed
    Deep in the nakid shorts shes wearing
    I,m hooked and can't stop staring
    O baby I wanna get you busted
    And take your picture (mugshot)


    Sir Mix-A-Lot

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  88. @Turd or anyone else that can answer.

    What call's are you purchasing?

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  89. @KC

    Everyone must do what is comfortable for them, what lets them sleep at night.

    This is what I would do: Stay in the house, pay no payments and squat just to SEE if the can actually do a deed of trust sale (I'm in Arizona and worked in the mortage industry.) You might just get your mortgage nullified by a court.

    If you do this, I'd take the loan and buy physical and really stash it because you don't want to have it if you are ever forced into bankruptcy.

    Just my 2 pesos.


    Brad

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  90. DPH what do you think of GG here as an entry level?

    If you're here

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  91. Turd:
    Sometimes different chart perspectives are useful - esp. the 3-day Kitco charts.
    http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

    You can not have a tighter convergence between prices on 2 days than yesterday and today. I think it's Blythe letting everyone know who is still in charge.

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  92. Decisions decisions.. back in slv calls before close or stay in cash overnight?

    ..we need a crystal ball!

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  93. All,
    My Scottrade account went offline around 3:20 PM. I believe that is the second time this week. Still down!! Any thoughts on that?

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  94. Does anyone think we are seeing a qualitative change in the way the silver/gold prices are moving??

    We have all noticed that the dips are shallower, the "raids" are shorter, the dirty tricks (rate hikes etc) less effective at suppressing price.

    Is the Cartel slowly losing control? Could it be that this two day pause is effectively "the Dip"?

    Can we expect to begin to see "parabolic" moves up?

    Any thoughts? Bueller? Anyone? Bueller?

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  95. "...but my intimation is that it's better to hold the debt as inflation will eventually reduce it."
    --------------------------
    Inflating one's own personal debt will only work if your income also increases.

    What I am seeing is inflation in prices but no inflation in wages.

    -Mammoth

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  96. Silver is about the blow through $40. This is the calm before the storm. I can almost taste it...

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  97. israel and gaza war tonight on local news 11pm go oil ,gold ,silver and my dollar menue

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  98. Does anybody else think it's strange that so many gold and silver stocks are trading down significantly even tho gold and silver bullion are at new highs?

    Has the Fed bought so many PM stocks with their POMO activities that they can now control their price like they did the gold and silver markets for so long?

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  99. Here's hoping the last 20 minutes are kinder to SLW than the last five hours.

    Sk

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  100. Too tough to call, Im hedging overnight

    April SLW Puts, ATM May AGQ calls

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  101. On a call option, I set 3 stop limit orders at different price points and then trail them up. For example I have Jan SLV 135 25 contracts purchased at $3.90 and created a sell stop limit for 5 of the contracts 15% below current bid, then a sell stop for 10 contracts at 20% below and then sell stop at 30% below, Then I trail them up as the price moves up - sometimes more than once a day to lock in profits. Doing this for several calls for gold and silver calls that are several months out. Works for me.

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  102. i know exk seems hft linked to intraday silver prices not sure on anything else as my attention is short

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  103. KC, assuming that you are in a single family home with less than 2.5 acres of land, and otherwise qualify for the protection from deficiency judgements, your big decision is do you need a good credit rating going forward. Keep in mind that by taking out a mortgage in a non-recourse state, you actually paid more for your mortgage because the mortgagee takes the risk of the house going underwater. Nothing unethical about defaulting in these circumstances. I would try to negotiate the debt away if I were you.

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  104. silver perking up
    big green candle on 5 min chart...

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  105. Looks like Bucky is gonna test 75.2x within a week (a day?!) or so. I'm expecting another bounce off support. Another timely European sovereign debt crisis would be helpful, and I'm sure the central banks, in the spirit of cooperation, can make it happen. They're gonna draw this game out as long as possible...

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  106. ferretflat, Scottrade has worked all day for me. They appear to be updating their site with new features today. Maybe they are having problems with some accounts.

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  107. SLW cannot get a fucking bid? WTF?

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  108. I see that candle, Salty.
    I like it...

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  109. Cris - yes.

    Brad - someone around here has crystal balls, if I remember correctly.

    dd - yup, spring is in the air.

    Salty - you should meet dd, he can taste the imminent $40 price of silver.

    Don - actually, for once (well twice, counting yesterday) I am looking mostly green.

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  110. Mike,

    After 15 minutes of fooling around I rebooted my computer and it accessed perfectly. Don't know what would cause that.

    Anybody know what has caused Fortuna to run up %15 today?

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  111. It's truly amazing that the worst thing that could happen tomorrow is we get a huge fucking dip to buy

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  112. Jake...rip not dip ...love that!


    Malcolm... I bought Jan 12 $80 GG calls and Jan. 12' $65 calls


    Stephen...I did the above buying while you were away. A convergence of reasons why. (as Turd has alluded to Israel, crude, no BTFD moment today etc) Wish I was around when GG tanked early on but the news cycle and gut feeling wasn't as strong. Plus, I just wasn't around to do it.
    It was the totality of the moment to buy and not the prices exclusively, but I did get back in the same calls I dumped yesterday at a much lower price with Au and Ag at relatively the same price as yesterday. I'm comfortable with it. Time is on our side.
    Thanks to yesterday sell I bought alot more of the same today. Love this!

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  113. Here we go - 1460 and creeping ever upward.

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  114. @Yukon,

    WoW speak of coincidental thoughts. Today I bought 75 rolls of mixed mercury/Franklin dimes for 20% below melt from a lady born in 1986 who bought it back around 1980 or so. She was exactly as you described the oldsters. And still she didn't get as much from me as she had paid for it she just needed the fiat fast and the price was close enough.

    Been a great day.

    Brad

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  115. Wow, Fortuna went up that much??? OMG!

    I was going to buy a bunch this a.m. on my gut and didn't.
    Oh well, wouldn't be the first time.

    Damn!

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  116. SSK

    Now, SSK, of course it got a bid. I just back bought in - right before it started dropping.

    Seriously, it's like I can't seem to get a break. ;)

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  117. Great close for the metals. Miners were mixed. EXk is the juggernaut. SLW is the dog. I cannot believe that close. There were no bids. None. Someone just sat on the sell button.

    Best line of the day form Preciousmetalsnews:

    "Yeah i know the feeling. keep thinking "hey dude where's my takedown?"

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  118. Or not, as the case may be.

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  119. DPH I decided I had enough exposure for overnight . . . will take a look at GG in the morning . . . thinking I would rather be long GG than either ABX or GDX right now but we'll see what happens overnight and tomorrow. The gold and silver charts sure look strong at the moment. Do you know why GG trading volume was so low today?

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  120. ferrat....as a I wrote alot earlier today and last night, Frank Curzio had a big piece on Fortuna and it had me really thinking about it last night. It's been on my watchlist for awhile and I lost track and Curzio reminded me.


    Sometimes jumping off the PM pony and right back on is the way to go in my case as I sold everything I had at 10:00 a.m. yesterday. It worked out well.

    Shifting gears quickly is crucial I think to the way PM's trade nowadays.
    I knew yesterday after I sold that I should be back in the market that same afternoon.

    Missed out on Fortuna today as I didn't listen to my gut fully.
    Oh well.

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  121. Um not 1986 1926 was her birth year. Duh

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  122. Stephen...no I don't. I think the people that bought ysterday just held their shares and little seeling happened today.

    Not to be a bummer but I think ABX is Barrick.
    Just read some pretty negative stuff from Matt Bialdi last nightat S&A about them. He actually recommended a "sell" to his clients.
    I'll try to dig up what the negative was that he outlined.
    Am I the only one who has trouble keeping track of what they read where sometimes etc... Info. and ticker symbol overload sometimes on my end.
    Wish I was one of those people who remember EVERYTHING.

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  123. DarkPurple,
    The Fortuna is single handedly keeping my portfolio green.
    I see you bought fractional silver. I thought about buying half or tenth OZ rounds but the premium put me off. A dime has 2.5 grams silver and no premium so I prefer circulated coins over fractional silver.

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  124. Who ever said buy SLW at 45.35 THANKS. I could not believe I got it at 3:36 pm. I hated selling at $46.70 the other day, as it can only go up as silver will. What a great company. Look at their tax line. Zero. Cayman Islands is the place to be.

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  125. Boy this baby refuses to dip.

    The buying volume is still light tho so I'm holding to my dry powders for now.

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  126. SSK....SLW seems to slide backwards a bit when there is little Ag price action momentum. Sometimes it's just neutral.
    The Ag price surges really get it going it appears to me.
    It will happen as we all know silver is going up.
    Maybe just not as rapidly like this whole week.....so far.
    Tomorrow could be significant is my opinion.

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  127. Yukon...thanks for the review of supply at your local coin shop....my local shop which because of some very affluent clientele, has always kept a good sized inventory...and I accumulated with ease over the years from them....then starting in September on 2010, they started having issues keeping silver in stock and periodically gold...one had to either get there first thing in the morning to buy what they got in or at closing to buy what they bought that day....that pattern has continued. Now however, the shop is wiped out of silver and now gold too....this has gone on for days now....either he cannot get it or what little he does get is gone immediately...today he literally has no silver and has 5 Gold Krugs that came in this morning....he says the Krugs won't be there by the end of the day....As he said "this is a tough time for me business wise as I cannot get product to sell in size at all"......just a head's up to highlight the"regional differences" you speak of....I am in Northern California...

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  128. I don't know. I look at CIGA Eric's gold and silver charts and I see a breakout of the price/trading channel. TF titled his message yesterday, "Breakout". That is what we're in right now. I'm not expecting a dip right away. It will come back and test support, but who knows when that will be. These are BIG breakouts of the a very longterm price channel.

    http://edegrootinsights.blogspot.com/2011/04/battle-to-control-trend-is-fierce.html

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  129. Yesterday Matt Badialli from S&A said to sell Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX).

    The reason is oil. The price of oil has soared and looks like it's going to stay at more than $100 per barrel. For Barrick, that's a profit killer.

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  130. SLW: why buy when it's close to its upper Bollinger; why not wait until it's closer to the lower band?

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  131. ferrat....This is the first time I bought fractional from APMEX and I try to not let the premium bug me too much as I know silver will exceed whatever price I pay within reason. I bought 40 and they were about $40.50 with the premium. I ordered them last Thursday so this weeks Ag price has me close to getting even soon.

    I have been looking into finding some Franklyn halves but they seem scarce or the premium is crazy.
    I've been seriously thinking of going to the bigger banks and buying rolls of $.50 pieces and see what the rolls might bear out and then just keep circulating the non-silver back into the bank. Costs very little if you think about the fact it's pretty much just a time consumption thing unless you find silver and have to rep[lace $.50 when you strike silver. Nice trade off.
    Silver dollars are possible also I guess but I like the way the Franklyns look.

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  132. Salty...thanks for the memory jog.

    I think he mentioned or alluded to something else also and I meant to try and fish that up today but haven't so far

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  133. Barrick.

    Read up on the shenanigans of this company and there management since 2000. Investors lawsuits, forward selling at $300/oz, sued by Blanchard, consistently lying for YEARS about hedge book, and it's collosal losses.

    It might persuade you to invest in a more honest company like Bank of America or JP Morgan Monster.

    Lol. Fucking Barrick. Get outta here with that shit.

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  134. Just sittin & thinkin quietly as the world turns. Thick foreboding externally in the air but calm within! Strange?

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  135. Regarding SLW, I personally didnt buy it this afternoon because of the uncertainty about the effect of any form of "government shutdown" on the stock market.

    I have seen SLW lag behind AGQ to many times on days when silver was up, stock market down. I decided to go with AGQ. Now there will probably be a monster correction tomorrow. Get ready boys and thank me. :)

    Did is strike anyone else as incredibly odd to not see a beat down today or yesterday? We are all just sitting here waiting for it. Could it really be that those who were short are transitioning to long? After all we did hear that JP Morg is advising clients to go long PM's.

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  136. Turd I have the same feeling... the train is most likely about to take off very soon.

    I think we have a bit better starting conditions compared to Feb:

    - more people aware of all the scam and more crowd's attention towards Gold and Silver
    - raids losing their power (lots of traders DO NOT short along with our friends, they rather wait and BTFD) dramatically
    - uncle Ben running out of his hacks
    - more and more inflationary pressure (if you print the money to cover your shorts, you make it even worse)
    - less and less those physical shiny thing available for deliveries
    - Saudi PM said if Saudi fails, oil goes to 200-300. IMHO, this is not IF. This is WHEN. This is all in context that oil prices give support to PM complex

    - and last one (joke): according to reports US economic recovery is STRONG, STRONGER THAN EXPECTED... So for Silver very good news - it's industrial metal as well :)

    Cheers any1

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  137. Spencer... I did the same thing with AGQ today.

    Other than my junior miners, I was "paper dry" at the open, then bought in early and then more before the close putting me at about even on the AGQ for the day. We'll see what happens overnight!

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  138. I did advise you, Mr. Ferguson, to pay very close attention Wednesday and Thursday. I shall advise you to do the same tomorrow.

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  139. all this talk about the expected beat down

    it's ;like a bunch of battered wives at a support group

    c'mon, relax, BTFR

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  140. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-silver-getting-too-popular%E2%80%A6-right

    The silver market is tiny....tiny.

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  141. Watcher: and when the tiny portal in gets crowded...

    WOOT! BTFR!

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  142. I don't know about you guys but ABX has had too intimate a relationship with government to attract me. Their long history of hedging play under bullion banks' guidelines sounds awfully like running a chicken farm according to fox' arrangement.

    ReplyDelete
  143. Oh Blythe, hundreds of thousands - maybe millions - have you in their crosshairs

    One step forward, two steps back. That's how we'll keep you dancing til you soil yourself on the ballroom floor

    ReplyDelete
  144. Ro Coach...bought it inspite of the Bands etc..
    When silver goes higher it will drag higher no matter what the technicals say to some extent imho.
    We're in new territory regarding how Au/Ag is trading.
    I would be willing to bet that when silver went parabolic in 1980 that the previous technicals went out the window.
    Thats the reason I bought, like Turd said, the train is going to leave the station due to factors beyond the EE control at some point. It looked like to me that it will pull away slowly from yesterday afternoon after it kissed $39.75, retreated hardly at all and then just kep get bought with no EE response today it seems. It was there a bit early on but it was half hearted.

    Too many huge forces at work politically, economically and globally for all previous technical stuff to apply (to some degree imho) as far as it relates to PM's and oil imho.

    Israel basically threatened Hamas with war. The SHTF moment is coming.

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  145. Jake, when states like Utah publicly announce they accept gold and silver as legal tender, and other states are doing the same....signals this TINY market is about to go ballistic.

    Afrum, hold on to that peace... it's worth more than silver or gold in these dark anxious times.

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  146. DPurple,

    I got some rolls of halves at my local small town bank last week and went through them. Every sinlge coin was a 1976 centenial half!!
    I recon they had been in the vault unused for years.
    I bought a few rolls of halves back in the 1980's and checked but found nada. I had more luck pulling silver nickels from change than than anything else.

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  147. ferretflat: did they have an S mint mark?

    if so, they're 90% silver, otherwise, bus tokens

    ReplyDelete
  148. Fortinbras, glad to know I wasn't the only one. I can hardly wait till we blow the top on that stupid round 40!

    ReplyDelete
  149. All,

    Barrick is simply a mechanism for looting shareholders of legitimate companies. Look at all the effing politicians on their board. They looted NG a few years back and cost me a fortune. Avoid any company that works with Barrick.

    ReplyDelete
  150. video:

    Ron Paul: Gold, Commodity Prices “Big Event” Signaling Economic Collapse

    http://www.infowars.com/ron-paul-gold-commodity-prices-big-event-signaling-economic-collapse/

    “It’s huge, and it has started,” Paul said, and it may be identified as such within 30 days. “I believe it is the beginning… .”

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  151. Spencer... I'm getting a LITTLE better at being patient, but got itchy like everyone else...

    I went "paper dry" (except for junior miners)on Wednesday and was actually going to put ZSL on overnight in case there was an overnight beatdown, but I just decided to sit on my hands after many "burnings" for fiddling like that. But this mornng, given no overnight beatdown and no morning beatdown, I decided to make the AGQ buy around 10 EST and then again at the close.

    Now I'm just going to try and be patient... for 24 hours!!! ;)

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  152. This is, or course strictly anecdotal, and a sample of one. Walked into a coin shop today in Nürnberg, Germany, and asked for a few pieces of bullion, as a souvenir. The proprietor told me that they have NO silver coins on the premises, as the wholesaler takes it back to their warehouse each day. She wouldn't even sell me the 1 oz coin in the shop window. I did not have the cash to spend to ask her to get the wholesaler to bring coins back to the store. Not necessarily meaningful, but weird. Down the street, a jeweler sold me a few 1890's imperial marks for $27 equivalent under the table (no receipt or even the lower 7% VAT rate), but he too had no 'current' bullion - ASE, Maples or Philharmoniker.

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  153. Fortinbras,

    Yeah, I know what you're saying about the ZSL. 2 months ago there would have been a supersized raid on a day like today. Everyone knows we are sitting right under a round number, but nothing...this market is changing. The shorts are getting long. Get ready for it. This next run should be another good one.

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  154. Is Govt shutdown off topic here? It must be good for Gold!

    ReplyDelete
  155. ferrat...her's stupid question..what constitutes a silvernickel?/
    I was under the impression for awhile it any nickel 1964 or older.
    I have been saving them for awhile. I read somewhere that's not the case regarding pre 1965's.
    Not sure what to believe. All I can say is that it's tough to find anything older then 1965 from my experience of looking through all my change all these years and I thought the reason was that all older ones had a higher silver content.

    ReplyDelete
  156. Found this online...putting it out there.

    How Ben Bernanke Could Crash the Stock Market
    April 7, 2011


    There will be no third quantitative easing program.

    The Fed's second quantitative easing program (QE2) is set to expire at the end of June. Investors are widely anticipating that our dear Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will announce another QE plan and to continue injecting the financial markets with $6 billion to $8 billion every day. But my guess is they'll be disappointed.

    Oh sure, there's a good economic case for QE3. The economic recovery is still on shaky ground. Unemployment remains uncomfortably high. Even with the vast printing of new money, inflation remains stable – unless, of course, you actually count the things that have gone up in price.

    So why not keep the charade going? It's done wonders for the financial markets so far. Stocks are way up. Interest rates are artificially low. And unless you have to eat food or use fuel, there's been no downside.

    Unless you're Ben Bernanke.

    ----------Poor Ben. Here's a man who believes his policies prevented a global depression. He saved the banking industry, kept the U.S. economy afloat, prevented unemployment from reaching record levels, and saved the earth from Martian invaders.

    But he gets no credit for any of it.

    Instead, he's lambasted in front of Congress, ridiculed in the newspapers, humiliated online, and de-friended from just about everybody's Facebook page. The man gets no respect.

    My guess is he's anxious to give people a taste of what things would be like if his QE programs weren't around… at least for a little while.

    No one appreciates the drug dealer until the agonizing moans of the withdrawing heroin addicts drown out the sound of the TV set. "Do whatever it takes to quiet them down!" people shout. "Just get things back to the way they used to be."

    Appreciation for central bankers is likely quite similar.

    We all complain about the devaluation of the dollar, the unending deficit spending, and the lack of fiscal discipline, which are all aided by quantitative easing. So, too, is the run-up in stocks and the low interest rates.

    "Just wait," Bernanke thinks to himself. "Let's see what everybody moans about when QE2 ends."

    We're not going to see a QE3 program until we get a glimpse of what life is like without daily injections from the Fed. Maybe then the pundits will show a little appreciation for the market's drug dealer.

    If you're buying stocks or bonds based on the premise that QE3 is on the way, you may want to rethink that idea. It may make more sense to think about what might happen when there's not an extra $8 billion coming in to prop the markets up every day. Look at what happened last year when QE1 ran out, just before QE2 kicked off.

    We're probably headed for something similar sometime this summer. As we get closer to the end of QE2, it's a good idea to start locking in gains and possibly look to profit from a few short sales.

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  157. From Gains, Pains and Capital

    The European Central Bank just hiked interest rates25 basis points. This doesn't sound like much, but it gives the Euro a clear lead over the US Dollarwhere the Fed won't be raising rates until hyper-inflation is already destroying our currency,

    In other words, in the paper currency "race to the bottom," the US Dollar is now #1 in a BIG way.

    And it shows...

    The US Dollar has only TWO lines of support left
    before the BIG breakdown hits. At that point it's "game over" for the greenback.

    At our current rate of collapse this will hit withinthree months. So if you have not already loadedup on inflation hedges to prepare for a US Dollar collapse, NOW is the time to do so.

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  158. As I sat here cutting and pasteing those last two items, I'm hearing on TV that Hamas in Gaza fired rockets into Israel hitting a school bus and killing kids today.
    Not a positive development.

    The next story was about Irans nuclear program and satellite images etc.
    Not good thats back in the news.

    What will oil be tomorrow at the close on Friday? $112-$113?

    ReplyDelete
  159. Way too many typo's....sorry folks.

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  160. It is so exciting to silver keep higher. BUT IF it go together with oil, then I think it will stop getting higher somehow. Say oil @ 120?

    ReplyDelete
  161. We seem to have spring from the starting gates. I hope this is an indication of things to come. Forty-dollar Friday - sounds like a great thing to me.

    I am horrified, though, by the tragic developments in the ME - war with Iran cannot be far behind and a major conflagration will be upon us. That war is bullish for metals is true, but profiting from it is not encouraging the behaviour in anyway I can see. In promoting the activity of mining - that kind of bothers me.

    ReplyDelete
  162. If things start getting truly hot in the ME in a cross border war ANYWHERE, I would not be surprised one bit to see KSA and the Israelis as temporary, strange bedfellow, the enemy of my enemy is my friend, allies.

    Iran is at the center of it... the two big issues righ now are:

    1) anyone shooting anything into Israel and the other ship that's on it's way to Gaza now.
    2) KSA's de facto "annexetion" of Bahrain, Iran's meddling in that, and KSAs VERY strong words of "but out of our business." The Sunni/Shia schism may be Israel's temporary friend in this one as the Royal Family in KSA is more worried about their own butts then they are in hating Israel right now.

    Just things to watch.

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  163. @paulindoon,

    thanks for posting that Ted Butler/President Johnson article. I was just amazed while reading the president's actual speech, and Ted has some very good commentary.

    This is the type of article that many of us could use to help convince the "unconvincable" to start investing in precious metals.

    Quite a talkative bunch today. Took forever to catch up on todays' threads.

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  164. @Xty
    "That war is bullish for metals is true, but profiting from it is not encouraging the behaviour in anyway I can see. In promoting the activity of mining - that kind of bothers me."

    Protecting your family's wealth in the fashion you see as best for you should not be confused with profiteering. Besides which, what does mining, or investing in miners, have to do with promoting war or advancing war?

    I have been watching developments in cancer treatments via nanotechnology for years now. Some of the latest advances posit using nano-gold particles as a carrier for cancer killers. Imagine being able to kill cancer cells without touching the health cells. Wow!

    If my investing in miners is helping the nano-technology and other silver-based medical technologies, I think that's fabulous.

    Don't let dumb sloganeers guilt trip you. If the US ends up going to war with Iran, I think it's because Iran has been prepping for it for 30 years now. It's what their regime has been living for, in case anybody has missed their message. Owning mining stocks is totally besides the point.

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  165. kc,
    Beware of loan modification as only 7% of applicants get them. The banks have been giving mods to get gov $ then turn around and cancel mod.
    Check mers situation they went belly up. @$90k I would squat avg. evict time is 18 months. RE may be down for decades. No credit can be an advantage it is for me. It is about survival. In a debt crisis RE is the weakest performer. This is a time for portable wealth. The Gov will take as much as they can from whom ever they can ; the employed, and the home/property/ business owners. They may tax capital gains to 90% as in the depression, how else will they pay for wars and health care and and and and. My dad is retired post office with kidney dialysis @$60k/month!, and a friend is a process server so I have a front seat to the show. Worst part is the server who owns two houses, 1 underwater,who used to sell time share thinks I'm over the edge with the pm's!
    May the road you choose be the right road.
    A hui hou malama pono.

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  166. those wishing to interact with the absolutely best place in the universe should go here:

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/

    sign up, it's free

    start asking questions

    as a comment system, this is the best of the best, take the time to learn how

    then bug Turd to get the guy to license the system for here

    ReplyDelete
  167. BTW: in reference to housing and real estate matters

    (we need an edit function!)

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  168. Watcher
    Ron Paul: Gold, Commodity Prices “Big Event” Signaling Economic Collapse
    _________________________________________________
    http://www.infowars.com/ron-paul-gold-commodity-prices-big-event-signaling-economic-collapse/
    _________________________________________________

    Thanks for sharing the link ... always want to know what Ron Paul is seeing .... our only real look into Govt. ... Rand also

    ReplyDelete
  169. Just found out my Chinese micro play of the past 3 years was halted and their auditor, PriceWaterhouseCooper, quit. $5k all gone. Maybe, who knows. I do know I wish I had that money back in ozs right about now.

    Will silver price drop? Should I wait or buy now? These questions seem meaningless when you've had paper go 'poof.' All gone. But wait. What's that in the corner all shiny and precious? Zero counter-party risk silver. That's the name of the asset game in these shady times.


    No whining. I knew the waters were infested. It was the action man! Sometimes, you just gotta touch that hot stove. Nothing a nice chunk of stupid-tax can't resolve. Also gives me a nice reminder of what physical metals are all about.

    Fuck you fraudsters. Fuck. You.
    /rant

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  170. I read the report about bullion banks that Turd referenced. Other than confirming my deepest paranoia about banks kiting golf, it strikes me as insanely bullish for precious metals. This line really struck me:

    "By the end of 2009 Scotia Mocatta was net long $1.7 billion in precious metals. Now that is interesting."

    If they were able to unwind their short position, and are now long, they will want the price to rise and the cartel will be braking apart.

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  171. Xty: kiting golf?

    too funny

    we NEED an edit function!!!

    ReplyDelete
  172. what a few other commodities have done over that last 10 yrs. compared to Gold

    Price Rose >10% Price Rose >5%

    Gold 0 Days 3 Days
    Crude Oil 11 Days 53 Days
    Silver 2 Days 32 Days
    Copper 2 Days 25 Days
    Nickel 11 Days 67Days


    Not sure how this will cut nd paste out but you'll figure it out.

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  173. Man - and spring for ny sprung up above - hopeless.

    Irene - I must have been unclear - I meant trading in metals did not promote war. It does promote mining which has been a filthy industry in the past. Much better now. And I am very much a fan of progress and technology and understand you cannot make an omelette without breaking eggs. But some eggs do get broken in this trade. But I was defending profiting in this way. Not doing so would not do any good that I can see,

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  174. Bummer. Tried to spread it out but you have two separate columns under the 10% and 5% header.

    Crude and nickel anyone?

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  175. DPHaze,
    I noticed your complaining about being second in the posts. Considering the name of our host, number 2 is an honor at this blog!

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  176. Turd,
    you talked about the silver train leaving the station. I must be learning a lot from you, as I managed to "preview" you a day in advance. This is what I wrote yesterday:

    "For those looking to BTFD, maybe need to realise that many others are also looking to do the same. That means the dip won't be as deep as you want, and the train will leave the station again soon whether you are on board or not.

    April 6, 2011 7:24 PM"


    So, I thought I was getting clever, but then I stuffed it up by switching a lot of my XAU/USD and XAG/USD into XAU/JPY and XAG/JPY just before the JPY rallied overnight. Oh well, still learning...

    For traders in the US, I see some comments on here that you can't trade XAU and XAG against currencies other than USD. Is that right?

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  177. Another bullish article from ZH:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-silver-getting-too-popular…-right

    I know it it a bit of an echo chamber, but facts are facts - silver is going up.

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  178. Turd,
    great call on WTI crude needing to catch up with Brent!

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  179. gold, silver, copper.....money

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  180. Turdle. Funny how you can get it right but still get it wrong huh? Humility is a great feature of this board.

    I couldn't stand standing around any more today and got in for a trade. Then out. Small gain ($200) but hey I played. Still not sure it was smart but urgh the greed!

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  181. DPH - that is an interesting chart - as always, I have picked the wrong investments in the past. Maybe this has finally changed?

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  182. Ditto on that great call on 110 WTI!

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  183. E-mailed my Financial Adviser last week and asked to liquidate my meager ROTH IRA and send me a check.

    Received and deposited yesterday and cleared today.

    Put in orders with Kitco and Gainesville today. Went back to bank to complete wire transfers this afternoon.

    Once I receive the physical I will feel much better. Already have my food supply, water filter (Berkey Royal), solar charger, etc.

    Now the only problem is that I am an island in a sea of ignorance and indoctrination. Paradigm shifts take a lot out of a guy...

    ReplyDelete
  184. Wow ..There is so much to go back and read to catch up on today's threads! Great information ..thank you everyone.

    Can some well informed Turdians (Turdites? ..Turdilistas? ..Turdicans?) give me a couple of good oil options to look at buying? I would very much appreciate your thoughts on what you like best. Thank Ya!

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  185. Let me add to my above question that I am looking at USO, UNG, WTI, & oil services/equipment company BHI. ...Any reason I should stay away from these or are they as good as any?

    Like'em? Dislike'em? ..and why?

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  186. @DPH - The only US nickels with any silver content were minted during WWII, 1942-45. They're 35% silver, and they all have a big ol' mint mark on the reverse, above the dome.

    @jake - 1976-S halves are either copper-nickel clad, or 40% silver. There were no 90% halves minted in 1976.

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  187. Bought back my Apr SLW calls today. I made $ on them, just not as much as I was shooting for. About 3 weeks ago, I anticipated that if Ag was approaching $40 then SLW would be about where it is. But it all came about a week early and I sure don't want to get called out. All the events going on, gov't shutdown, May delivery coming up, K'daffy setting his refineries on fire, Israel/Hamas/Iran, Saudi etc, etc. Also, noticing more discussions on CNBS about silver, seeing all the comments about coin shops from you good people here. Too many things to keep Ag at this price for another week. I'm thinking this isn't a train leaving the station, it's a rocket and we're approaching blastoff. I want to be on that ride. GLTA

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  188. Mister: thanks for that, I was assuming they were 90%

    40% is good, just not as good

    according to here:

    http://www.pcgs.com/prices/PriceGuideDetail.aspx?MS=1&PR=1&SP=1&c=125&title=Kennedy+Half+Dollar

    You are correct, 40% for San Francisco (S
    ) mint mark.

    This is where I checked before. The D and Plain are bus tokens.

    Forgive me, please.

    ReplyDelete
  189. Tulving's premium is coming back down a bit.

    100oz JM are down to 79 cents. (They were 59 a few weeks ago, then went up to 89).

    They have pre-2011 sealed monster boxes os silver eagles for $2.99 over spot. (That's the cheapest I've seen for a while).

    I'm not buying right now, because I'm paying back down the credit cards I jacked up during the $26.50 dip, but I sure wish I could buy more.

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  190. Ginger and others...

    http://etf.stock-encyclopedia.com/


    I don't think I can tade futures commodities on my options account. Newbie to the options trading but a long time observer of charts and chains.

    I've been stuck to USO mainly because of it's liquidity and overall size.

    I also would like to hear about some crude oil options suggestions. I know I'm missing something.

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  191. To anyone who gives a damn...........I've been buying since 03. I've seen the run from $5 to $8 and the beat down.

    I lived through the $8 to $15 run......and the beat down.

    The $15 to $21 to $8.80 was a BITCH!.

    and there was no EE......no Blythe........No Andrew Mcquire smokin gun...

    Just saying...watch your ass here. Don't get too fuckin crazy cuz it might bite ya.

    Don't believe me...think I'm full of shit...?

    Check out your 3 year weekly chart on stockcharts.com. $Silver is the symbol

    it ain't all 1 minute 5 minute 8 hour charts.

    Watch your ASS!

    You know what I mean.

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  192. Mister....Thanks and Damn!

    I had a nice pouch of them going.
    I just read they (64' and older are worth $.07 due to the nickel content mostly.
    That's a 40% profit....h'mmm...wheels turning about nickel


    my word ver is ....morgan....how cool is that?

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  193. I really can't stand Alex Jones, but as you say, Ron Paul seems like one of us. I mean watch that video. He talks about the 'one worlders' and the 'one govt' people trying to take over but that the people are starting to wake up. Just listen to the first 10 minutes. He thinks that gold and silver are ready to announce their verdict against the EE. And I'll give AJones some props for playing the EE music in the background.

    Don't let em take your smile. This blog is about freedom. Keep your sense of humor. Have faith in God.

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  194. Ginger...UCO and BNO look interesting.
    Not sure how liquid they trade. Checking into it right now.

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  195. Piano Racer....Just keep telling those you care about how screwed up things are and how to prepare and maybe you'll create some barrier islands for yourself ;-)

    ReplyDelete