Thursday, April 28, 2011

A Change of Leadership

Do you recall the time recently when copper led the metals? Then, for a while, gold was linked to the price of crude? As I've often stated, silver has led gold since August but that is changing, at least for a few days.

This is not meant to inspire questions like "how much gold should I own and how much silver?". I'm just saying that gold may drive silver for the next week or so instead of the other way around.

I'm glad that silver has charged back and now sits just north of $49. I'm very glad that it isn't $51 and making new highs like gold is. After all the talk about parabolas and blowoffs, I want to see silver crawl higher from here, not explode higher. The crawling indicates a general reluctance to get back in. It shows doubt in the fundamentals and belief in the topcallers. This is good! This shows us that silver still has a long way to run! It's when there are no dips, when there is no reluctance and when there is no perceived risk that markets put in tops. This is clearly not the case at this time.

Now, take a look at these gold charts. Note that it didn't drop nearly as much as silver did and had since rebounded to new highs. This is orderly and continues the pattern we identified last week
and clarified yesterday.
And here's an updated 30-minute chart from this morning:
I have a last in the June gold of 1535 so let's see if a new UPleg develops shortly that will take it toward 1550.

Here's a 30-minute silver chart. Note a couple of things:
As I type, silver is already above $49 and looking to threaten the overnight highs of Sunday. I would expect some selling as it closes in on that area but we'll see. There are millions and millions of dollars of fresh shorts that got piled on back on Monday below 48.40. Those folks are just now beginning to feel some real pain. Silver will either stall for a few days in this area and give the shorts some relief or it will rapidly accelerate higher toward $52 as the panicky shorts begin to cover. This will be great fun to watch.

The POSX is so awful and horrible that I don't want to take time to discuss it now. I'll make that the focus of the next update. Again, for now, watch gold. IF it can explode UP through 1540 and make a move on 1550, silver will charge back toward 49.75 things will get very interesting very fast.

Have a fun day! TF

271 comments:

  1. What's wring with parabolic silver? Seems inevitable to me when you done years of naked shorting that can't be covered...

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  2. Lots of undervalued gold stocks for the picking: NG, AUY, ABX (just upgraded today), GG, HMY (Really acting weird of late), and even TRE (the most manipulated gold miner on earth).

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  3. ferretflat - Erci#1
    Where do I find out what % of a coin is silver and gold? I want to go to the coin shops and buy, but do not know what the % are on the different coins. Any help would be much appreciated.... Thanks

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  4. Silver just looks primed to blow through $50 doesn't it? Like it's just revving its engines, first at $48.40, now at $49.20, getting ready to peel out and make the leap higher. If all systems are go and it blows through $50, then the great beyond is infinite....

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  7. For a different perspective on the movement in gold, have a look at in AUD. Largely gets rid of the effects of the dropping USD, which is dominating price movement at the moment.

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  8. RockinJohny - one of the best places for stats on American coins (and a few others) is at Coinflation though Wikipedia for data on foreign coins is also very helpful. If you're in the coin shops, many have very helpful proprietors and salespeople. Get to know them. Really. I am of a mind that smelting and coining might become a good, local, viable business in the future...

    Ol' Michael

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  9. RockinJohnny- go to www.coinflation.com

    Everything you are asking for- different slver contents for diff coins, and it calculates present meltvalue of each vs current spot price of silver. (sorry,corrected earlier mispelling)

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  10. Dramatic drop in volume today. Notice that OI is at 10,963. When is the put up or shut up date for holders standing for delivery?

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  11. will there be any intraday dip in silver today? if there is im getting AGQ

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  12. Say it ain't so: SLW and many of the miners are showing signs of returning to the same pattern of underperformance. SLW up .74 with SLV up 1.6%.

    Gains puked back up in a fifteen minutes.

    It remains to be seen if yesterday was just a one off rally, or if we go back to the same ol' same old of miners lagging the metals.

    SSK

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  13. Ginger- thank you for posting your comments on this board.
    I am starting to look at options positions and would like to know if there was a particular site that was instructive.
    I am looking at Lind Waldock...did you look at them versus OptionsExpress or other like Fidelity?

    @TF- Thank you very much for this board and our communication through it. I'd like your thoughts on a theory regarding SLV.

    However, would it be correct or logical to conclude that any call position on SLV is actually helping JPMC to "inventory" paper silver positions on the long side?

    I am thinking that the ride up on SLV is matched to Silver's price rise. Since the phantom silver in the JPM vault is riding also, they can book phantom profit on non-existant silver. The non-existant silver appears when the OI converts to "settled" and its a "cash" settlement instead of delivery. Then, the payment to the comex is cashed and the bank "receives" shipment to their vault.

    Any delivery from Comex to the HSBC or JPMC vault should therefore be vacuous and no real shipment may be moving, but the accounting ledger shows it.

    Is this the prevailing view by speculative longs? If so, shouldn't the upside in Silver not be "bubble" but based upon the fact that the physical market is already trading that high?

    I thought that was why a Futures market and options market existed? I am not a trader, but wasn't the original idea to permit companies who need the inventory but could not get inventory to actually trade like they had it coming in and locked in at today's price rather than 2x or 3x in a shortage situation>?

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  14. Can somebody explain to me why, again, are the miners under-performing the ETFs?

    Yesterday they slightly underperformed, and I had hoped that I could get into them again and enjoy solid returns. EXK generally had AGQ beat, every day. Up until 4 weeks ago, that seemed to work fine.

    But now I can find no miner that beats AGQ. Is this all because of hedge funds shorting the miners? Anyone have any tips on any miners that aren't being shorted? I'd hate to go back to AGQ.

    I'm heading over to lind-waldock.com. This is fucking bogus. Next time I see a hedge funder in NYC I'm going to pop him in the jaw so hard, China is going to bleed.

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  15. This is by far the BEST article explaining silver in a nutshell that I have seen:

    http://paperempire.net/2011/04/22/silver-is-a-bubble-but-its-not-what-you-think/

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  16. Oldnavy,

    Silver content varies. dimes,quarters,halves before 1965 have about .715 oz per one dollar face. Silver dollars have about .77 oz silver. The difference is to pay for the cost of minting the miners bullion and issuing the coin.

    Coins after 1964 have varies percentages of silver. Leave those for the experts to sort out.

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  17. Have a good day everyone...Thursdays are too mental to hang around and watch/trade so relying on core holdings and a "fantasy fill" at a lower price to get by on...

    ...will check back later tonight...

    Canadian Bill

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  18. My local coin dealer here told me that $1000 face value of junk silver has 15 ounces of silver. Someone correct me if I'm wrong . . . but that is what I recall.

    From that it's pretty easy to use a calculator and determine the value of a single dime, quarter et el.

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  19. SLV ETF to add 50 million shares. Unless you believe that one of the 'authorized participants' will actually buy 50 million ounces of physical and sequester it, this is bearish. It creates 50 million ounces of paper silver to sop up demand, and gives the bullion banks 2.5 billion bucks to cover additonal shorting operations.

    Silver seems to dip whenever SLV grows, the dips typically last a day or two.

    http://247wallst.com/2011/04/28/ishares-silver-trust-set-to-grow-even-more-with-new-shares-sales-slv

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  20. SSK . . . thanks for your comment on SLW . . . I'm wondering the same thing.

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  21. Interesting video questioning the motive behind the Chinese government's request of their citizens to accumulate PMs and a strategy to prepare the Yuan for reserve status:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YPXncTuwFIE

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  22. StrongSideJedi it probably started with real industrial users wanting to lock in a price. And that is still happening. However how many people even on this board alone have an industrial use and intend to take delivery on the future?

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  23. StrongSideJedi,
    Thank you for posting YOUR comments. I have learned more than you know from your posts. :] True Statement.

    I think TF recommends Lind Waldock so I am certain they merit your investigation. I probably did not give my platform the due diligence it deserved, quite frankly, so I am not sure you should listen to me. Honestly, an optionshouse.com ad popped up here I believe on TF's blog so I just clicked it and they seemed very easy to get started with. This is why I said you probably shouldn't listen to me! It's wise to check around a bit more. I made a quick decision based on what was easy in the moment ..BUT.. I have not been unhappy at all with optionshouse. All I had to do..after the initial signup...was to send them my printed/signed forms and they activated my account right away. Funding is easy with ACH transfers, check deposits thru mail, etc. The only drawback to the ACH deposits (which probably exists everywhere..not sure) is the 3 day wait after you make a transfer to your options account. Really difficult to wait if there is a dip you are ready to buy into! ...That may not apply to those who can fund their accounts with an initial large sum.. but for me..having to put $200 or $300 in at a time.. it can be aggravating. But that's the only thing that has been difficult and that's not a big deal really.

    You are so far ahead of me in your knowledge. This will be EASY for you! :] ...Can't wait to hear how you do and wish you absolutely all the very best success with it. Please let me know! ....I'm sure others will give you other ideas as well with platform choice. Interactive Brokers is another good one I see thrown around here....

    HappyInTheWoods,
    Thank you for your comments on the previous thread. ...I had an AHA moment from what you posted.. ...TY TY TY!! ;)

    Just saw this posted over at stockhouse.. thought it was good/fun/and sobering at the same time: (Apologies if everyone but me has already seen it..lol)

    Fight Of The Century: Keynes vs. Hayek Round Two
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTQnarzmTOc

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  24. For anyone looking to buy gold I heartily recommend taking a look at the American Gold Buffalo. It's a 24K coin and absolutely stunning. My personal favorite.

    Yukon

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  25. It seems like $49.33 is like thin glass ceiling at the moment. Two bounceoffs at that on the M1.

    The velocity of the break at this level could determine if we push past the shorts in $49.80s.

    I'm guessing it may take a few headbutts but it'll do it eventually and rush up to Turd's level before exhausting.

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  26. On another note, I am watching the 113.70 - 114 level in CL. It's been struggling with that level for a while now.

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  27. Stephan,

    Junk silver has 715oz per 1000 face value.

    run back there and grab that 1000 face immediately and I will split it with you...Ha!

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  28. The wife is usually stingy but has given me the green light to donate to you regularly. We have made a small fortune because of your insight. Thank you. I feel the power is in our hands now. Thanks to people like you I see a light at the end of the tunnel. FEED THE TURD!

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  29. Yukon, I agree that the Buffalo is a gorgeous coin. I'd take it over most other gold products, although when I buy from Tulving I've been buying the Canadian Maples; not as pricey over spot and good buyback prices.

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  30. It may take a guess over $1,600 to win a hat today.

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  31. I think if silver shoots up like this, miners will lag. It needs to go up slowly with conviction

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  32. If you need to value junk, this is the best site:

    coinflation.com

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  33. Well this is a big day for me. My Canadian TFSA (Tax Free Savings Account)just crossed into the 6 figures thanks in part to following Turd and everyones insight on this blog.

    The TFSA program only started 3 years ago and the government allows $5000 to be added into this account per annum so in essence I started a few months ago with a $15,000 contribution into this account (not having taken advantage of it before). I've realized a 700% return to date and completely tax sheltered. Woohoo!

    I highly recommend any options traders to take advantage of their TFSA (but also recognizing that newer traders may want to experiment first before using a TFSA as losses cannot be deducted from income nor can you add addtional funds into your TFSA to cover losses.

    Someone had mentioned a month ago that once you withdraw funds from your TFSA, you could later add those funds back into the TFSA. I hadn't heard that before so I spoke to my accountant today who said you cannot add funds into your TFSA to replenish any withdrawals. You can only add $5000/year. Has anyone else discussed this with their accountant and confirm?

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  34. Raul:

    or maybe, when gold retakes the lead the miners will go up because the hedgies rotate out of their paired trade

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  35. Ginger IRL I do life coaching. Thanks for letting me know you got an ah-ha!

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  36. Just bought some oz's from Great Panther for the $47.50 price as posted over night. By the time I got back from paypal to Great Panther it was $51.40. Nice quick profit! Thanks to the over night posters.

    Eric#1 - Are these (2011 Silver 5 oz 2-Coin Set Gettysburg & Glacier ATB) worth $6.00/oz over spot?

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  37. Fear of governments halting PM exports out of their country, nationalization of mining companies... is this part of the lag in mining stocks???

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  38. @alex

    what were u buying futures or atm options?

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  39. Dollar is gasping for air trying to stay above 73. Good luck with that- Uncle Ben's drowning you

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  40. Alex - I believe you are right - you can only contribute the $5000/year. You could not make up a withdrawal. That is an awesome return - well done. Stodgy me, I did turn the cash in them into CEF and PHY.U recently, and they are beginning to swell.

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  41. Well.. Happy, come on outta those woods and meander on over here. My life could use a good coaching now and then! :D

    Seriously, thanks for all you take the time to share. Your skills shine through ;)

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  42. Dmon exactly right . . . thank you for correcting me

    I use a calculator to revalue my junk silver from time to time

    (obviously it's been awhile) hahaha

    715 ounces per $1000 face value of 1964 and older silver coins

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  43. @alex

    Withdrawals cannot be put back in in the current year (assuming you've already used up your contribution room). They are however added to your contribution room for the next year (and will carry over into subsequent years if not used).

    Congrats btw -- I'd like to be doing a similar thing. But I started last spring and was long metals and short S&P all suffered through the dead summer and the S&P meltup :( Fortunately though, I took my options trading losses in a cash account - my RRSP and TFSA are buy-and-hold so far and doing OK.

    http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/tx/ndvdls/tpcs/tfsa-celi/wthdrwls-eng.html

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  44. Alex!

    Damn impressive! Wish I could make 700% in 3 months. I've been reluctant to use a TFSA because in my view it's another way for the government to have some control over your account.

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  45. Ginger - have you done an update of your holdings that I missed? I have been a dedicated scanner of threads, but didn't see it. What are you holding now? I went to the optionshouse,com site, and they have a number of promotions - I think you can get some free trades if you recommend me! And then I can still get their free trades promotion. But you would need my email. Anybody with half a brain could have guessed it by now, because I am lousy at deception. But we could use TF as an intermediary, if I email him and he forwards it to you (assuming he has your email?). What say?

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  46. GPL just raised their price to over $50/oz and (temporarily) closed the store.

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  47. It broke the thin glass at 49.33.
    Now for momentum...c'mon!

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  48. Got an error on my information, hope you guys can help. Says here TRE is trading in green for the day. This is obviously not possible, so any correct prices (probably down another 1.75%) would be appreciated.

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  49. Well, I was apparently wrong about a beat-down today.... bad for my trading position since I'm in cash, but good for my core position... :-)

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  50. Silver Mining Stocks At Discount To Commodity Price: An Exclusive Interview With Andrew Kaip Of BMO Capital Markets

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Silver-Mining-Stocks-At-twst-3825108155.html?x=0&.v=1

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  51. Everyone...please step up and feed the Turd.

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  52. There goes the momentum! LOL
    For now at least.

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  53. HappyInTheWoods.. or anyone,
    One more question about taking options profits. It *could* be a rediculous question but if I don't ask it.. "/ ..well.. anyway.. ...I can't get my head around this concept: Does it benefit you more..say if you knew that silver is going to continue it's climb for the next several days.. not saying it will..but just assuming. And you have ATM calls. Do you do better to sell positions (or partial postions) on a high and buy back in to slight dips...which of course could increase the number of actual contracts that you have.. ..or do you do better to hold your initial contracts because you will be buying the new contracts at a higher price?

    Maybe that doesn't make sense?.. and maybe I'm thinking it too hard. Or maybe there is no right or wrong answer here. Trade, buy what you can, take profits when you can, hold when you should.. ..AI YI YI! :]

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  54. Hopefully GPL honors the done deals (particularly mine. OK, and yours too).

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  55. You know.. ..scratch that last question. I would delete it.. but all the other options-trading-hopefuls need to see the head games that this can play with you. lol.

    Of Course ...it would be better to sell on highs and buy back on dips for better positions/strength. "/ I get hung up on re-buying calls that have gone up over the original 'good' price I bought them for on a previous dip. Hope I am sorta kinda on the right track here.

    I need more coffee. Obviously. :]

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  56. Jeff, I noticed the same thing about TRE, must use the same broken service

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  57. Stephen:

    $1.40 face value of 90% silver coins [essentially pre-1965] is approx. 1 troy oz. of silver. $1,000 face value bag of junk silver is approx. 715 oz.

    If you have a $1,000 face value bag of junk silver, then you multiply 715 times the spot price to calculate value, assuming no premium.

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  58. Hey Turd,

    Thanks for the audio links to the Web Bot project...It is GREAT to listen to at work today while updating client databases and doing menial office work. Thanks again for all you do.

    Can't wait for the new website!

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  59. Funny how the douchebag top callers haven't realized one simple thing about the silver market. That the price of silver is dictated by the PHYSICAL market, not paper.

    Another thing to note about this market is that since manipulation was so rampant and for so long these explosions UP should be expected because price is trying to get to equilibrium.

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  60. SLV share price vs. spot difference increased again. Used to be 0.7-0.8, then $1, now at $1.15 - $1.20.

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  61. Ginger,

    noobie here on my second day of trading. I have the same problem, once I sell a call I have a hard time buying back in at the higher price. just a mental hang up.

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  62. From the candlesticks we can see that there is good defense shorting here preventing Silver from getting any coilup and upward spring.

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  63. Ginger:
    Look @ the theta value which will tell you as time progresses, what the diminishing # of days will do to the value of yr option. It will basically redyuce by that amount IF the underlaying asset DOES NOT go up.

    But Ag per Turd has some time to go up until next week. So as long as the increase is greater than the theta then the value of yr optiuons should be improving.

    Hopoe I got that OK & it helps.

    Me: I am holding my ITM May SLV otions until next week at least

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  64. @RockinJohnnyT
    Try http://www.coinflation.com/

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  65. Alex - your accountant lied; here is the wording from the TFSA brochure:

    •You can withdraw funds from the TFSA at any time
    for any purpose.
    •The amount withdrawn can be put back in
    the TFSA at a later date without reducing your
    contribution room.

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  66. Xty,
    That is VERY kind of you! I'd love to do that and not sure if TF would mind or not. Would gladly provide you with my email (I just don't get hung up on it like I probably should).. Having my eBay business and putting myself out there...half the free world could cause me harm anyway if they wanted to.

    ...If we could work it.. it would be good. ..If not.. that's ok too! Don't want to cause you or anyone any undue aggravation as this just benefits me really. (Thanks so much for thinking of it though..very kind of you:) ...Let me snoop around the optionshouse site and see what they say about reccos ..and I'll get back to you.

    Oh.. and I hold currently:
    JUN48 SLV
    JAN12 USO
    JAN12 UNG
    (and that rediculous MHR thing that I didn't actually mean to buy.. clicked 'confirm' when I meant to click 'cancel'. lol. :|

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  67. Questions on OPTION TRADING...

    I work for a company that restricts my trading activity wherein I have to hold any purchase for a minimum of 30 days. This includes options.

    Can someone tell me if I can even consider some minimal options activity given this restriction?

    Thanks in advance!

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  68. Gold and Silver patterns are almost Identical.

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  69. Ok I may be wrong but just at this time Silver may need some sorta BoS to help take on the collated shorts in the defense zone.

    They've parked the bus there it seems.

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  71. Ginger . . . something I usually do: as the option value increases (as the underlying equity price increases) is roll my positios over to a higher strike price to lock in some profit. I usually buy ITM options with a delta around 70% to start. I try to sell at the top and re-enter on the pullback but I seldom get that right. hahaha

    Regarding your previous questions (not such a bad question btw) trading with options to catch major moves is known to me as "swing trading" compared to day-trading with daily entries and exits. There are lots of strategies between these too types of trading styles where the only variable is how long you hold your positions. One reason I use ITM options is because it gives me the ability to occasionally enter and exist more frequently with a profitable trade although I consider myself a swing trader.

    I'm glad you're here asking basic questions.

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  72. Just in case you forgot how crazy this market has been recently: http://i.imgur.com/mvmny.jpg

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  73. @winker

    Butterflies and calendar spreads would be good strategies for you - both must be held until near expiry to realise their maximum value.

    You can use them to play for a price range in the underlying, or for a price direction in the underlying, or for a volatility change in the underlying (buy butterflies if you expect volatility to drop, buy calendars if you expect it to rise).

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  74. waffen,
    EXACTLY. It's really part of the whole emotional part of trading. We have to learn to be more detached when it makes SENSE to let go and if the profits would be better by selling and rebuying. Right? ....You picked a great day yesterday to start this, huh..?? :D

    paulindoon,
    Ack. It's the whole theta thing again. Ok. I get it. I've seen others post that they wouldn't go any closer than 3 weeks before expiration.. to protect against the time decay.

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  75. Ginger thanks for the compliment. I am always looking for clients ;) The beauty in the job for me is that the client is the expert in their own life and just needs assistance when stuck.

    Someone else will have to help you with the mechanics on options. For one thing there is the time crunch and for another the volatility that could change how strategy translates to execution.

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  76. @sp I started at ATM call options on SLV and got out last week before the dip with decent profits.

    This week I've banked on the volatility for maximum return and using Turds $50-$52 recommendation as a basis of what to buy. I bought OTM 50 strike when ag was 44.65 and more yesterday minutes after the fed statement.

    It's worked out quite well.

    @Ginger
    There is no right or wrong answer to that but if you read into my statement a little more you will note that ATM call options offer less risk/less reward when compared to OTM calls. There is nothing wrong with selling ATM options and buying a few dollars OTM if you anticipate an increase in the underlying and want to achieve a maximum return or if your options go well itm than selling and buying otm.

    Of course if you go back to my post some time ago (I'll have to find it), repeating this forever is also the akilees heel to newer options traders especially when the bull run ends or goes flat and your stuck with otm calls.

    I like to protect myself by taking profits off the table. I'll gladly trade maximizing profits for some security on the way up.

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  77. Turd are you saying your gut and analysis are pushing toward gold this week or this month?

    I agree that it's been a great ride and consolidation would reduce the froth in silver.

    Still $2 over the next 3 weeks would be 4%. For gold to perform the same would be $60 roughly. Which is slower than the pace in the past few days but faster than the pace over last 30 days.

    Just checkin' that I follow you. It's not always easy to pick out the intuition part of someone's forecast.

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  78. Absolutely BEAUTIFUL BTD opp!
    I almost teared up.

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  79. Ginger that rap video is awesome and deserves a re-post. It's aptly appropriate to the thread's title "A Change in [Economic] leadership" ..is required.

    Hilarious Economics Rap Video
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTQnarzmTOc

    And...The original...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0nERTFo-Sk

    Two MUST WATCH for all Turdites watching at the edge of their seats the last innings of "The Great Keynesian Experiment".

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  80. I had bids set at 372 and 365......

    Happy Kiwi!

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  81. holy cow the volume on the sell side on that was HUGE.

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  82. @ JohnC & Dr O

    Thanks for your replies. Apparently I need to have a little talk with my accountant who *should* know these things!

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  83. Ladies and gentlemen, THAT is why you have a stop loss.

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  84. Turd told us that today would be interesting!
    -.60 in one minute on high volume. looks like EE activity to me...

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  85. Stephen!.. Thank you.. that was very helpful. I learned I'm a swing trader ...not a day trader! :] ..Also, I have found that I feel better/do better buying ATM or at least very NTM within a dollar or so. Not sure why that is exactly..but it seems to work best for me. It may simply be a matter of needing more patience with buying way OTM calls. ?

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  86. That was DEFINITELY EE activity! LOL

    It was being telegraphed all the way from that glass ceiling at 49.33 area with great defense shorting preventing any momentum buildup, and then boom!

    We need Daddy Warbucks on our side right now.

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  87. Wait for the 2nd leg.... I have AGQ bids at 355 and 350

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  88. market talk on a cme hike in margin requirements on energy products lol so algos selling silver so tempting to BTFD here

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  89. @alex

    lol .. when I started, I booked a session with an accountant, specifically requested one with trading experience, and half of the answers to my questions turned out to be incorrect.

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  90. Damm, looks like someone is pissed

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  91. It's almost comical that one red line of volume on the 1m netdania charts.

    I got $10 bucks on the whiteout coming out today. :)

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  92. Corn trying to go limit down? Led by wheat.
    Stopped out with small profit.
    Looks like we're in a trading range.
    Hope support holds.
    Energy, gold and silver trading down as well.

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  93. My approach to options has been to make a guess on the growth of silver.
    0.2% per day has been my guess and its been low.
    Then project the silver price out where the options expire in 2-3 months.

    Then I take that price and apply a 10% correction, assuming the worst case correction.

    Then I buy in the money options that are below that price such that with the correction I'd only loose 50%.




    When silver has risen about $3.00 to $4.00 I roll into the next set, same rules, approximately doubling the number of options in each roll.

    I've been doing this since December in my options gambling account. I've taken the initial investment out and I'm up 25X the initial investment.

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  94. Now you know why Asia wasn't biting to take this up to $50 only to see this shit happen...again.

    Let these goons take it past the levels themselves, then we buy!

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  95. SilverSurfer,
    I had not seen the original one!.. 'Round Two' on the one that I linked...duh.. I should have realized that that meant there was a first one! Love it. I have just been sitting here working and listening to that Round Two one over and over again in the background. These are good. They are catchy/good but in a way that is sad to me because of even finding ourselves in this position. I did sort of bury it at the bottom of my post.. Thank You!

    Alex,
    Regarding your previous post about a new trader's akilees heel.. I actually not only remember your post.. I have not placed a trade yet without thinking about your words!.. I wasn't sure who's post it was...but it stuck with me. Makes me very cautious. At some point..this will end with SLV I'm thinking. I do want to be on the right side of that time. Your words were something for us all to keep in the forefront of our trading.

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  96. @ Paul, thanks for that detailed layout.

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  97. It's getting tough to find certain forms of physical out there without paying huge markups.

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  98. "I do want to be on the right side of that time." ~ Ginger

    Now if we only knew the when and how.

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  99. Thank you for sharing Paul Breed. I will do some analysis base on your strategy and perhaps give it a try.

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  100. I suppose this was the reason for the big raid:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/silver-backwardation-doubles-overnight

    Cartel must really be getting desperate.

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  101. Silver is dipping. No Worries. The Turd has taught me that unless the fundamentals have changed we don't come unglued about our metals. We show our true mettle :D ...by hanging in there!

    My options that I didn't trade are headed lower. I sure hope this means our government has gotten its fiscal house in order. Otherwise, I'm not interested in sweating this.

    Enough posts from me! ...My work remains undone over here. :|

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  102. That's a great strategy Paul.

    I was too timid to go otm initially not having invested in Silver before but now that I got my feet wet, initial investment out and a better overall understanding of the market, I'll likely adopt something along those lines.

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  103. Please be patient.
    Recall my belief that this leg from now until next Friday only takes silver to $50-52 and gold to the area around 1560. Action will be choppy and somewhat violent. Don't get discouraged. Give it time. We have 6 more trading days after today.

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  104. xfrogman5,
    Yes. Exactly. That's the rub for sure. :|

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  105. Ginger, ATM and OTM calls are attractive to me because they cost less than ITM. Your online broker should show you the Delta and the Theta of any option you own or are about to buy. Delta tells you how much your option will go up for each dollar the stock rises in price (this can be very important to me if I am trying to catch a price movement of a couple of dollars. Theta is more important for OTM and ATM calls when you might end up holding longer. Buying OTM calls can be a very good strategy especially if you are certain about the trend and buy several months out; but you can also get screwed pretty good with OTM calls with premium time decay and the price not moving up as fast as you had expected.

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  106. Man! That is some heavy action.

    I gotta go change my armor.

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  107. They don't scare me Turd, if anything I am buying TFD!...so bring it on.

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  108. It could be that they just piled on to the usual selling into London close. So it kinda magnified the end result.

    They really have to exploit windows like that to do 'damage'.

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  109. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  110. Ginger: thanks for the video links. Clever, funny, accomplished.

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  111. Could be a take out of stops before a fast move higher. Last Wednesday, silver hit the low $45s, then dropped about $1 in a few minutes before it continued its run to $49.80.

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  112. FOAQG - bought laddering down and even nailed the dip. Already selling but will hold some for new high ;)

    Ginger - this time for me taking some out at 49.10 worked like a charm. It isn't always that way.
    Celebrate today Ginger it looks like you've found out "who" you are. A swing trader! congrats

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  113. Amen Ginger,

    We know what we believe in and will not retreat.

    The Cartel has drawn a line in the sand at 50 and will fight to the death to defend. By doing so they prolong their existence but confirm their slaughter.

    While they are defending 50 we are able to buy more physical at bargain prices with the ever increasing piles of paper they call money.

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  114. FOAGQ-

    Had to chase the tape starting at 365 to finally get another chunk at 368.85...I need faster fingers.... but it looks like the chase was worth it!

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  115. I personally think $50 will fall fairly easily. Just my gut instinct.

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  116. Ginger & other (fellow) options noobs,

    I've been dabbling in options (SLV, GLD, AGQ) since February. I've learned that the less I trade them, the better. Invariably when I went back and compared the potential gains from my original position to what I wound up with, I would have done better just holding. I also started a program of buying options further out on the calendar by buying what I think will be in the money. I think of it as planting a garden of options that will ripen in time, rather than as a boxing match where I'm dodging and weaving all the time. Much less stressful.

    My ability to anticipate moves has improved over time, and I'm sure it will get better, but for now this is the right approach for me.

    Having said that, I'm not above scalping beer money here and there with a few short term options on really obvious spikes/dips.

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  117. WOW fun day for FOAGQ. Very busy lots of trades. GLTA

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  118. Stephen,
    Do you get the feeling I barely no what I'm doing over here? :D :D :D ahem. :| ..My oil calls are very OTM so.. yes..I think I'm thinking like you and have a very basic understanding of Delta/Theta. ALWAYS your posts are helpful.

    sumo,
    I'm not smart enough to know how to do the actual live link.. SilverSurfer saved us on that!

    Sitting BullStones,
    And doesn't it seem like the battles they wage over their drawn lines have less and less firepower? Tells me you are right and their endtime draws nigh.

    And we are already headed back up! :O

    Happy,
    I'm happy! :D

    Xaritas,
    Ok.. THAT was helpful.. and exactly what I was wondering about earlier! Sell + Take Profits vs. Hold + Take Profits Later. I'm thinking there isn't a one size fits all approach now and that like you.. I will have to experiment and learn.. but your comments really helped me sort thru it.

    Yikes.. I said I was done and now I really am.. thundering & storms here.. Everyone in the SE be careful!... ...The weather is at least as volatile as the metals lately!

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  119. FOAGQ-

    Picked up my last bit at 373.50... probably overpaid for it, but now my bucket's full and I can just sit back and watch the fireworks.

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  120. Stay loose and don't over commit. Be in a position to take advantage of any nukes she may hurl at us. Turd says there is always a chance we can see 47. Be sure to be in a position to capitalize on that. GLTA

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  121. FYI: The US Mint today is starting to sell the 5 oz. Uncirculated America the Beautiful Hot Spring NP silver bullion coin for $279.00. They come in a mint box with COA. You can view them here:

    http://catalog.usmint.gov/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/TopCategoriesDisplay?storeId=10001&catalogId=10001

    It's about $8. oz over spot, but as of last night, Elite Numismatics at:

    http://www.enicoin.com

    was offering to buy them for $360.00 + shipping. A nice $80. profit. There are only going to be 27,000 of each coin made available by the mint, so the mintage is low and the rarity will be high. Right now the mint’s server is quite busy, so you might want to wait until later in the day.

    I know this isn't a collectors blog, but nice coin, easy profit.

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  122. atlee: couldn't agree more. Preach it, Brother.

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  123. Ginger,

    Addendum: I do have to force myself to sell part of a position once it gets ridiculously rich in order to cover the cost basis. For example yesterday I had May SLV 45s that were at +165%, I sold roughly a third in order to cover the initial cost of buying the options and generate a little profit. Obviously if I had not done that yesterday I would be looking at even bigger potential gains today, but you have to keep the greed under control.

    Also, it was very helpful to me to go back and look at my trades and compare what would have happened if I had done nothing or not acted out of fear/greed. This is a painful exercise but it has made me more successful, so far.

    For those who were wondering about brokerages, I use Ameritrade for all equities and options in a single account. Not the cheapest but I'm quite happy with them.

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  124. Xaritas . . . I have only been trading SLW and SLV since january this year and I totally agree with the point you're making. Although your trading style is a bit different than mine, I will admit I would have done better if I did not over-traded my swing positions. For anyone new to trading it's dangerous to try to pick short terms tops and bottoms. There are many here who are quite good at that and I alway enjoy reading their targets and trading decisions they share here.

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  125. Atlee is right. Sold into early morning strength and am positioning now riding down Blythe as she bucks. We see. Just buying the weak legs in PSLV,Sivr,Cef,Phys,for now. Staying away from those in the psyche ward,i.e. exk,svm,gpl etc.

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  126. Xaritas- great post. I'm relatively new to the options game as well and I feel like I've been doing the boxing routine for the last few days. Way too much stress! Couldn't agree more on the holding strategy.

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  127. Turd and Michael

    Regarding coining and smelting locally, I've been approached by my local bullion guy to possibly set up a small facility in his new building. Incidentally, my true craft is as a Tool & Die Maker and business owner before all of my trade was shipped overseas. Name most anything and I've either had a hand in it, or been just a degree or 2 of separation from it.

    Should anyone know of someone I should talk to or be in contact with, please let me know. The only coining silver (90%) I ever bought for a job was way back in the late 60s or so, so I could use any direction to begin looking for everything involved. This would be for local AND custom work. Probably would also have some limited bar products in order to make maximum use of pressroom scrap.


    Turd, just finished your radio interview and it was fantastic. I'm hoping to get my Berkey AND a generator this summer. Project next winter will be a woodgas generator to run it on as backup. Running a generator from 'firewood' is truly a gas ! ( 2/3 of a pun .... PU )

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  128. Blythe has mounted anti-aircraft artillery on the roof of 50 but when she sees her 'ally' GLD bolt North leaving her stranded things should get interesting. Who knows when this happens.

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  129. Is there a cup and handle pattern developing in silver ?

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  130. That is some heavy shorting, crazy they do this in the face of immense buying. Standard COMEX Close takedown (1:25 EST). Look for Globex Bounce imo.

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  131. Nice long tails on candlesticks now signalling interim end.

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  132. I hope she holds in the upper $47. That'd be great!

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  133. Paper price is now separating from physical. APMEX is
    OUT of of ASE to 5/27
    OUT of CML to 5/27
    OUT OF $1000, $500, AND $100 junk bage to 5/6!

    and the icing on the cake...THEY ARE paying OVER $51 each for Eagles!

    Go ahead EE - keep it under $50 til it's all gone!!

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  134. Here comes another barrage..crazy right now.

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  135. And a shoutout to the Tungstenman, for that call for WTI $105. You customers' accounts *cough* cat meat *cough* will be showing the results by now.

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  136. Crikey mates! Is she on speed??????

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  137. Getting real close to Monday volumes

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  138. Must really want that Comex close price as low as possible

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  139. Any takers that we see a mother of an FUBM in the Globex?

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  140. Any thoughts on where a beatdown like this "actually" come from?

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  141. Close beat down. Just makes the little bankster pricks have to cover more shorts at higher prices!

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  142. Blythe is just looking for the cosmeticly appealing appearance at CRIMEX closing. Expect to see it go back up in the Globex or Asian markets overnight. This too shall pass each succeding raid gets shallower and shorter.

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  143. Incredibly crazy! Does anyone wanna tell what the jobless claims are again?

    Sorry I can't hear you...

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  144. Seems like we'll stay above 47.25 where we gapped up Sunday night, fingers crossed

    Beating it right to there at COMEX close seems obvious enough, get a close under 48 before FRYday

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  145. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  146. Wholly 5hit did you see that war at the Comex close ? Hope everyone BTFD ?
    Like clockwork eh ?

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  147. and thank you Blythe. Yea baby! That was intense.

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  148. WOW! the fight here is something to behold...A

    DOWN GOES FRASIER moment...NO WAIT! LOL.

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  149. atlee-

    I do appreciate your thoughts, but I'm trying out different strategies.... I'm confident silver will go over $50, so maybe I'm giving up some potential profit. But since I'm not using leverage, I'm not going to get shut out with a loss.

    P.S. Did my last buy of AGQ at 348.80.... which is looking pretty good right now..

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  150. Is someone trying to paint a chart for the chartists. ?

    LOL

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  151. The EE would look bad if silver set a new closing all time record the day after Ben gave his premier performance. I too expect a nice FUBM on the globex. I doubt EE will let the price close above 50 til next week.

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  152. Not certain shes done but that was a nice trade off the comex close. stay thirsty my friends. (nimble) Time is on my side. She's still got the guns.

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  153. I bought TFD and now I a loving it.
    Hard to get interested in grading final papers today! More Turd feeding soon.

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  154. Turd,
    Can you post the volume for the last 10 minutes before the Comex close ? It had to be "Insane" !

    TIA

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  155. If anyone needs a reassurance that WE ARE RIGHT in our interpretation of the forces behind this market (sic), just look at the last hour.

    BLATANT manipulation.

    Where is the CFTC?

    Thankfully, through the power of the Internet, and with guides like Turd, Ted Butler, James Turk et al we are now INFORMED enough to recognize the patterns -- and take advantage of them.

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  156. OK Kiwi. Not directing any critism toward you. That post was just coincidental. As long as you can keep emotion out of it you should be OK.

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  157. Hey guys,

    Just some thoughts.

    We need to be careful when it comes to blaming the EE for every silver dip. I don't post as much as I'd like to but I do read this blog every day and I've been noticing a bit of an ugly trend that involves all (most) posters blaming Blythe for every downer that has come following Turds great calls at ~$36.

    It's not just "US" vs Blythe. There's a lot of rookie longs out there and there are bound to be more as silver gets some much deserved attention.

    Yeah the EE sucks but it's not ALL about them.

    Just my 2c

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  158. We are entering the later rounds now. I threw good short punches today, some looping hooks and a couple of right hands. Blythe came back hard with some under the belt stuff and a serious kick in her high stilletos. She did'nt really land anything, I'm waiting for her to exhaust herself then I will move in with some head shots, some rabbit punches to the kidneys and maybe even an uppercut. We see. Its a fight today, no quarter is given, no quarter is being asked.

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  159. My first BTFD with 47 knock out options ;) feeling pretty good, thanks BM

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  160. Apologies if this is noise... but I was listening to Turd's interview last night - which was excellent (I have forwarded those links to as many people as I think will listen + a few others) - and at the same time I was continuing my experiment with Raw & Vegan cooking - this time making some chocolate chips to go in some chocolate chip cookies I will be baking tonight. Anyway... as I laid them all out on the dehydrator trays, it struck me that something was missing, so I added it and took a quick photo.

    http://www.presentationplato.com/2011/04/army-of-turds.html

    Just for fun... happy to share the recipe for these if anyone is interested... no dairy, no processed anything, no refined sugar... just a magical recipe that comes together to make perfect chocolate chips.

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  161. Cris, the CFTC is part of the PPT:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plunge_Protection_Team

    Where is the CFTC? Where is Gensler, the CFTC Chairman, ex-Goldman Sachs? He's taking calls from Blythe, helping her with her next move.

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  162. Just went in big with EXK. 11.65. Time will tell if EXK keeps its leadership position in silver miners. After this mad week, there is bound to be new winners and losers. But I'm sticking with EXK and am so glad I traded and lightened up on SLW on yesterday's strength. So let's see how this shakes out.

    I'm looking at GPL here. It's holding up well under the FUTF.

    SSK

    SSK

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  163. Ricky, the waterfall candles are most assuredly some heavy hitters removing bids and liquidity and driving price down in 1 minute time frames in my opinion. Also contract players cannot tolerate over a 10 pt waterfall in Gold and must abandon ship once it happens, the big players know this.

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  164. @Ricky,

    You are right that not EVERY dip s the result of an EE raid.

    But this last one was.

    Extremely high volume at a critical timepoint resulting in a massive drop in an very short amount of time.

    Those hallmarks point DIRECTLY at collusion of deep pocketed entities aka The Cartel.

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  165. atlee-

    I'll buy that! Mostly I just need to establish my buying/selling ladder and then sit on my hands, instead of wanting to "make things happen". I did think there would be a beat down today, and then the upward action made me change my mind, which scrambled my trading plans for the day. I probably should have just sat back and devised a new strategy for the day, instead of jumping in and buying everything in sight.

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  166. Ricky,

    The problem I see with your post is that "most" "rookie" longs don't have the where withall to move the markets. Seasoned traders that have huge war-chests are the ones fighting it out here. Put another way, anyone who can afford a large position (to move the market in either direction) in metals (long or short) knows what the game is and they are playing it for profit.

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  167. @sumo,

    I have not given up hope re the CFTC.

    Perhaps I am naive; I prefer to think I am idealistic.

    A change of ONE Commissioner might change the whole ball of wax.

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  168. Jack, I for one don't want to see silver go parabolic because that kind of move doesn't last long and crashes shortly there after with great deal of profit taking. Continued stair stepping like Turd is noting shows healthy strength.

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  169. @Ricky: Trust us dude. This is ALL EE!


    word ver: mines !

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  170. Lets take another crack at that 47 Blythe. I'm going to wear my baseball hat this time OK?

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  171. Did Eric#1 fall out of the apple tree or something?

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  172. Ricky, I think as Karl Deninger explained once on his site that thru the use of high frequency algos, JPM and other heavies can fake high volume bids which get retail jumping after the price, then they very quickly remove the bids creating significant air pockets beneath price which then waterfalls price. Its a system based illegally on subterfuge since a bid must be genuine in the Market but in these cases they are not. When retail discovers there is no one supporting his price he bails and price plummets.

    Blythe took her teeth out today for this fight. She is gumming me now in the tie-ups and throwing elbows. I think i can handle it. I just don't like dirty fighters, never have.

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  173. Ricky: try trading silver for a living, watching the tape all day every trading day.

    Trade during US and London hours. Then compare with Sydney and HK.

    EE's actions stick out like dog's balls.

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  174. Anybody see any good setups in the charts? Where are you buying now in the miners?

    Tom, you always have good research on miners. What looks good to you?

    I'm seeing nice action AUY and GPL. Once again, GG is holding its own. And ABX after a rough week.

    SSK

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  175. . . . bought 10 contracts of SLV when it was still down 35 cents during the recent dip. Will do that 3 or 4 more times tomorrow and next week if given the change. Swing trade target: when silver reaches 50 to 52.

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  176. So if you can pull up a 5 hr live chart (or 4 hr but 5 hr is better) she is giving us the finger. Arm knuckles and finger. Take a look. you too ricky have a look.

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  177. Revett Minerals finally could be heading to the AMEX next week. Early May seems to be the word on the street, specifically May 2nd (yet not confirmed).

    Today there is some institutional selling (idiots) and some institutional buying which followed the dumping (on RVMID at least).

    Just throwing it out there, be sure to DYODD (do your own due dilligence) as I was wrong on my initial time-frame of the AMEX listing. However, feeling a bit more confident about this one.

    On another note,

    As much as we cheer on gold/silver, the devaluation of the dollar will soon be felt stronger than ever before. Be sure to lend your knowledge to others who wish to seek it. Keep your contacts open, we are in interesting times.

    We need to audit and then end the Federal Reserve. However, it is not just the Federal reserve but rather the whole Western Banking cartel that must be taken down. Not exactly the easiest thing in the world to do, but not impossible either.

    Ron Paul will be a start.. (having his ideology spread), but it is up to us.

    Just went completely astray,
    Bring on FRYDAY.

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  178. Hey Ricky, if you haven't already, you should go listen to that extended interview which Turd gave on the previous thread.

    It's fantastic dude. Even I learnt lotsa stuff on there and you really get to know the heart of our fearless blog captain Emilio Estevez...ahem...I meant Turd Ferguson !

    Enjoy everyone. Bed time. Goodnight!

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  179. Nice, it's like someone send an elevator back down to pick up the rest of my dry powder.

    Guess it's time now to get back on the 'stairway to heaven'.

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  180. definitely a kind of reverse head and shoulders on the 10 day chart of Silver with a double bottoming action. IMO could explode towards 54 area if this is the case.

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  181. Hey Guys!!!

    Eric#1 here. Having major problems with Blogger today. Won't let me post. Trying another avenue right now.

    I'm around. Just got back from the coin shop. A little silver said bye bye and and a little gold came home. Been doing some swapping for a week or so, and think I'll take a break now.

    My miners are still in the green today, mostly on the back of a rally in one of my favorites, Avino.

    Won't be posting much until I get this Blogger problem figured out. But I'm lurking. GLTA

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  182. That was such a beautiful dip! I put in a monster buy order at 47.30 before heading to bed (aussie time) and woke with a beautiful FYBM.

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  183. @ the guy with the large amount of numbers and letters in his name; on the topic of blogger problems

    I know what you're talking about. I take it every time you want to post you get an error message, but everytime it's somewhat different?

    I solved it by going to www.blogger.com (after closing my browser and reopening it, otherwise you'll get the same error over at their site as well). Once on the blogger site, I registered my account, which I didn't do before. After that I was automatically logged into this system here and could post again without that error returning.

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  184. please oh please we need a big FUBM

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  185. I'm so glad that worked!! I'm so relieved. I think I was starting to go through some serious withdrawal!!

    Eric#1

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  186. 1ddc7378-71c1-11e0-9a6f-000bcdcb5194 (Eric#1 in disguise) -

    Had a question way above for you but will ask again here. Are these : 2011 Silver 5 oz 2-Coin Set Gettysburg & Glacier ATB worth a $6/oz premium? Thanks!

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  187. Thanks Fleve, I will try that. Gotta go run the dogs now...

    Eric#1

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  188. Seriously, Total Volume is down about 60% today, did all the traders shoot their wad yesterday?

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  189. What is going on? Now we are getting all these FUBM'S in the Globex. Makes one wonder who is doing all this trading in the after Comex closes. Who can do this and who can't? Is this Blythe covering her shorts?

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  190. Paul,xty,

    I just got back from lunch. I caught the stink bid I left and replaced the SLV46JUL c that I sold @ 4.9 for 4.0! If they break 5.0 I'll sell them again!

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  191. @ben.roberts13,

    Remember Wynter Benton??

    Hmmmmm....

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  192. @ Cris, rthaler and others

    I agree that this one was likely driven by the cartel but I don't think that this makes my point any less relevant. I just worry that some of the discussion seems to tend towards the ZH style conspiracy stuff.

    I've already listened to turd's interview. Thought it was good, loved the questioners passion.

    New longs might not move markets but they can have an impact on the swings.

    fwiw I backed the truck up twice at $45 and bought the most recent dip as well. I'm not a top caller or anything like that.

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