Sunday, April 24, 2011

Easter Sunday Evening

Hello, all. The Turd and all of the Fergusons hope that you've had a safe and fun holiday weekend.

The PMs opened higher at 6:00 EDT and are still rolling. I have a last of $47.77 in May silver and gold is $1513. Crude is up. The grains are up. Its all kickin ass.

If you haven't already, you should probably take a minute to read this:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/china-proposes-cut-two-thirds-its-3-trillion-usd-holdings
Trust me, there not rolling out of dollars into Venezuelan bolivars. A lot of this money is going into PMs.

Much of the hubbub tonight seems to be over the rising May open interest numbers. Here, see for yourself:
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver_quotes_settlements_futures.html
Now, before you get all carried away, you'd better do some historical research.
49,418 with five days to go is a lot. Its even more impressive when compared to the 46,839 OI basis Wednesday night. However, for perspective, with five days to go before first notice day in February, the OI for the March contract was even higher at 50,888. This is not to say that, in the end, we won't have a higher number of "standing" contracts come Friday...but...don't let your emotions get the better of you simply because the number increased back on Thursday.

As you know, I discern and follow pattern. The pattern from last November (first notice for the Dec10) and February (first notice for the Mar11) is for a brief but sharp selloff in days 4 to 2 before first notice day. This raid is orchestrated to "convince and nudge" as many front-month contract holders to roll as possible. I fully expect the same pattern this week. As The Wicked Witch told you yesterday, after a rally to $48+, expect a quick drop back toward 46 or 45. From there, pattern tells us that silver will rally through the first week of the delivery month as hope remains that the Comex will be unable to fulfill the settlement of the delivery contracts. A similar rally from late this upcoming week until Friday, the 6th of May, will take us from the area around $46 up to $50 or even $52. Its all right here, if you haven't already watched it:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WhcFI-vzNXk

Lastly, I want to remind all readers, old and new, to read the disclaimer at the bottom of this page. Judging from the amount of emails I've received lately, many of you need a refresher. If you are taking investment advice from a guy named "Turd" and managing your investments based upon the musings of a cartoon character, you seriously need to re-evaluate your decision-making process. I am here to provide my guidance based upon my experience but it is up to you to decide what to do with it. The Turd should only be a small piece of the puzzle, if at all.

Keep an eye on things tonight and get ready for a very volatile week. Watching the PMs over the next few days will not be for the faint of heart.  TF

383 comments:

  1. China Proposes To Cut Two Thirds Of Its $3 Trillion in USD Holdings


    April 24, 2011, 0930 PDT -- BREAKING -- Just about thirty minutes ago this story broke from Zero Hedge. That should pretty much start the global dollar dump immediately and the reactions should be almost immediate tomorrow. This could be a global 10.0 financial earthquake. -- MCR

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/china-proposes-cut-two-thirds-its-3-trillion-usd-holdings

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  2. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  3. Dear Turd and Fellow Turdites,

    You may be interested in an analysis of two previous PM tops in 2006 and 2008. Parker Binion has produced a couple charts that can be found at the following site:

    http://www.ttheory.com/ (scroll down half way)

    Lessons from Prior Gold Tops
    By Parker Binion
    April 24, 2011

    His analysis for Silver's double top with a following silver and gold collapse may be instructive for this May-June time frame. I plan to overlay these with current prices as they unfold over the next few weeks and to watch for any similarities. For instance, look at the double top in silver, the length of time for the PM weakness, and the very strong 'down' days just before the reversal to the upside for both gold and silver.

    (tried to paste copy here, but alas)

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  4. Here's a quick little read about the U.S. debt downgrade.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/liamhalligan/8470172/America-appears-to-be-sleepwalking-towards-disaster-does-no-one-care.html

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  5. Turd, Thanks for the calm reasoned thinking. Some of us who are a little newer look at the sinking dollar, and rising oil...and wonder if we will ever see $46 silver again. I will be ready when (if) it comes.

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  6. Whoa! A flash low of 47.50 in a few seconds. Going down more now.

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  7. Turd: for your disclaimer:

    All my opinions posted here are meant for entertainment valus only.

    But then, do you want to take advice of any kind from somebody named jake the snake?

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  8. we need a fucking edit button

    word verify: hogliggl

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  9. From a a close of $46ish down to $47.50?
    Hide yo wife, hide yo kids!

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  10. If you look at the silver chart on the Kitco site, it's pretty cool-

    I'd call it "The Erect Anaconda" formation.

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  11. Ok, here's one for ya turdsters (Long time lurker, 2nd time poster) - A friend of mine convinced his dad to roll his 401k into a self directed IRA and put it all into metal - the account is all set up and the money is supposed to be available tomorrow - How do you think is best to buy into this market? Total amount is low six figures and it's all going into PMs, so do you just hold your nose and buy it all at whatever price is available, or do you wait for a pullback even as we've got all this dollar turmoil with china, japan etc. about to dump treasuries making a dollar collapse look increasingly likely?

    Thanks!

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  12. China seizes Christians in Easter raid

    Peter Foster
    The Telegraph
    April 24, 2011

    Security forces clashed with followers of a growing underground Protestant movement that was blocked from moving into a new meeting hall near Beijing, leading to three weeks of confrontation with the communist authorities.

    Worshippers from the Shouwang, or “watch tower”, church were taken away in buses, some defiantly singing hymns. Church leaders had issued a “fire and brimstone” cry for the congregation to worship outside the building even if it meant arrest and prosecution.

    “The devil Satan has taken advantage of the authority God has granted to the national government and is seeking to destroy God’s church,” Pastor Jin Tianming wrote. “His devil’s claws have finally been revealed. Satan get thee behind me!”

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  13. For any who missed the meme

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnaVoTfkqa8

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  14. So anyway, disregarding slight setbacks, with silver backwardation fully frontally in place, various shops still being out of various silver products (my shop has been out of 1000oz continously since December), and just seemingly no new supply coming online, where do we find our equilibrium price here?

    I truly believe all of this is caused by the physical market, because supplies around the world have now been depleted and industrial demand is higher than supply and those industrial users will just bid the price up and up because they NEED to get the silver to make their products.

    At which point will they decide to cut back on their silver use.. or at which point will a large pool of silver holders decide to sell their silver? Where is that equilibrium price?

    I am pretty sure it is not 50$, and I am pretty sure it is not double digit.

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  15. for those of you buying slv options, below is some vol data from ivolatility.com. the site is free but u have to register.

    slv options ATM calls are pricing in 43% move and puts 44% move (rounded)

    last 10 days average daily volatility in silver is 26%
    last 20 days daily vol is 21%
    last 30 days is 26%

    keep in mind that this means if u buy an slv option today atm u r expecting a significant increase in volatility even compared to what has happened recently.

    i am dealing with this by buying agq shares or possibly silver futures this week and selling slv options against it.

    @cris

    i read earlier about ur idea of going both long and short in silver, u can do this via options but if u go long on both calls and put, u will basically be long volatility with a guess that it will essentially double going forward compared to the last month. not that i am saying this won't happen, but the risk u take with that trade is that slv moves alot but u still lose money cause it just didn't move enough

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  16. btw when i say "pricing in 43% move..." this is referring to estimated annualized volatility

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  17. Btw, the "Turd of the week" award this week already goes to Tristan.

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  18. Thanks, Turd.

    Your hypothetical scenario based on pattern analysis makes sense to me. I will keep some dry powder in reserve for a dip some time this week. If it doesn't happen, or if I miss it, I won't blame you. Blythe may not be able to give us a dip to 46. We'll see.

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  19. What do you think about Michael Ruppert's prediction for tomm?

    China Proposes To Cut Two Thirds Of Its $3 Trillion in USD Holdings. That should pretty much start the global dollar dump immediately and the reactions should be almost immediate tomorrow. This could be a global 10.0 financial earthquake. -- MCR

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  20. Blake...
    the three things my broker told me 2 years ago (this is coming from a broker who manages a billion dollars and feels the system is doomed in it's current form... I will share it and ask for comment's from those who play here who are a LOT brighter than I am...please offer improvement's..this game is getting too serious.

    So...If I had 100,000.00 here is what I would consider

    1- buy some physical but only use a fund where you KNOW the metal is really there ...suggestions might be Central Fund (vaulted in Toronto and holds both gold and silver)...Sprott for Silver NO other paper metal instruments.

    2-Take delivery of some physical...ya it sounds a bit hokey but what do you spend if the banks declair a "holiday" or the credit card gets turned off? He suggested 500 silver maples or eagles as a MINIMUM.

    3-Once that is done...CONSIDER a senior UNHEDGED producer like Barrick

    4-Finally gamble on some of the juniors using something like GDXJ or better yet ZJG.to (index of juniors containing 85% canadian and 15% american) AND it is denominated in Canadian dollars.

    my 2 silvers

    folks...what would you do?

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  21. DPH you are an amazing info funnel. How do you catch all this stuff? Thanks! (Watchtower group, huh?) No joke, though. These people truly stand by their faith! God bless them!

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  22. @ turd

    Not sure how many will roll even with a massive attack (although a 2 to 3-minute drop of $2-3 would admittedly be scary and formidable). It just feels like an upward tidal wave at this point. It seems like whatever the Morgue tries, it will simply get faced and silver will blast ever higher .... higher until folks get spooked by the rate of ascent, and then there will be a pull back (which is healthy and natural given the need to periodically consolidate). Now, will that pull back come this week with us approaching the historical, round figure of $50 silver? Not sure, but it's possible. In either case, there seems to be no mood to let off on silver. The Morgue looks like it is in trouble for now. I just get the sense that BM's attempts to force down the price will be answered by strong buying and that a sell-off will not be successful, unless the longs themselves feel that the price has gone up too fast and too high.

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  23. @Catseyenu,
    Thank for the timely chuckle! Took the wife and I about 3 months to get that song out of our head... but we did discover this version:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wid6V_f09rA

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  24. @Blake

    I assume you mean physical metal, right? IMHO, there's not much to gain by waiting for a pullback and potentially quite a lot to loose. Others on the board more expert than me, but that's my .02

    But I'm not an investment advisor, just a believer in owning physical silver sharing his opinion.

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  25. I've got an article request if someone can point me in the right direction, or even write something up if you have a site.

    I have family nearing retirement age who have lived under the 401k delusion. But the upside is that they are reasonable people with an open mind, in which I have planted some seeds of doubt in the current system.

    It would be useful if there was a very elementary article out there that can explain our current fiscal predicament in very basic, non-technical terms. Something which can explain our monetary policy, hyperinflation, and (mostly importantly) how hard assets can protect one's self in this environment.

    I am getting traction with the "silver dime buys a gallon of gas" analogy, but a better constructed argument would go a long ways. It helps to have some source out there to corroborate my "crazed ramblings". :)

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  26. @Easy Money

    You should save your post until the time we get close to a top in PMs.

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  27. Apples...
    i'm very serious here: buy them a copy of Michael Maloney's guide to investing in gold and silver in Kiyosaki's rich dad/poor dad series.

    It is a great book and its how i got my wife to buy in a few years ago.

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  28. @Apples

    Not an article, I,m afraid, but a short and easy to read book. I recommend Charles Goyette's "The Dollar Meltdown". It includes some concrete suggestions of what to do to protect your assets.(And, of course, Maloney's "Guide to Investing in Gold and Silver".)

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  29. A quick google of "china cut holdings" shows they talk about lowering US debt holdings fairly often and have been talking it for more than 5 yrs.

    Browsing the articles reveals this or that board member talking in official or unofficial capacity.

    Reminds me of the hawk/dove play acting the US has been doing around QE2/3 the past couple of weeks.

    To top it off China was last week rumouring devaluation of currency and now rumouring releasing US debt. Let's not forget they have internal issues (MOPE) as well as the int'l stage to play on.

    Not saying I think they won't and not saying I think they will. Just sayin'

    Cripes the conflicting information to work trading strategies on. Looking forward and not looking forward to tomorrow.

    word ver: bearb Like I needed another "sign" to deal with.

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  30. Apples http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/04/deflation-or-hyperinflation.html
    A long post but its very good read. Also additional links in the post

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  31. POSX is catchin' a bid. What up wid dat?!!

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  32. Pt.1
    Hong Kong anxiously watching Fed

    HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — Few places will be watching the Federal Reserve’s next policy statement more closely this week than Hong Kong as it gets back to work after the Easter Monday break.

    Since the Fed first unveiled its quantitative easing policy, a surge in overseas liquidity inflows has led to an unprecedented expansion in Hong Kong’s monetary base, and steep climbs in asset and equity prices. Any change in this policy could have a magnified impact in Hong Kong.

    Already, in early April, both the International Monetary Fund and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) warned about the risks of excessive credit growth in Hong Kong. Now some analysts are flagging that Hong Kong could be particularly exposed if the Fed were to end its ultra-loose monetary policy.

    Daiwa Capital Markets expects the Fed will shortly bring an end to its second round of quantitative easing (QE2), which is one reason it warned in a new strategy note that the liquidity tide is now turning, and the Hong Kong equity market could be rolling over.

    This call echoes the joint warnings of the IMF and the HKMA on excessive credit, highlighting that Hong Kong’s monetary base has tripled in size since the Fed began QE.

    Credit has been plentiful and cheap. Total loans in Hong Kong grew 29% to HK$940 billion ($121 billion) in 2010, largely driven by loans to property and to non-bank mainland companies.

    The HKMA warning highlighted the amount of U.S. dollar lending Hong Kong branches of mainland commercial banks have been making to Chinese state-owned companies. This lending rose 44% to HK$440 billion in 2010. There you have it, that — albeit in a roundabout way — the Fed’s policies have helped shovel cheap and depreciating dollars to Chinese companies.

    The other big lending destination has been Hong Kong property as the influx of funds has pushed down interest rates to record lows, with the Hong Kong Interbank Offer Rate (HIBOR) moving close to zero. Property prices have risen steeply, to the extent luxury prices are now 20% above 1997 peak levels.

    Now Daiwa argues that the key factors that have supported equity and asset prices — strong economic growth and cheap money — have turned neutral at best.

    They warn gross domestic product growth in Hong Kong could start to weaken later in the year as inflationary pressures take hold. Last week Hong Kong’s Consumer Price Index jumped to 4.6% in March, ahead of most forecasts.

    Given interest rates have been at such unprecedented low levels, it looks inevitable that they could only go higher from here as some funds begin to exit. Daiwa notes that as central banks around the world move to hike interest rates, this is increasing the cost of being long the Hong Kong dollar.

    Hong Kong’s susceptibility to changes in U.S. monetary conditions is linked to its longstanding dollar peg. This often leads to Hong Kong following U.S. policies that are out of sync with its own economy, thereby magnifying the economic cycle as asset prices take the strain of adjustment. Daiwa notes this can work powerfully in favor of asset prices, as it has done since 2009, or it can work against them as it did after 1997 during the Asian financial crises.

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  33. Silver is a different kind of bubble. Silver investors already understand this. The rest of the world doesn't see the upside down bubble collapse:

    http://paperempire.net/2011/04/22/silver-is-a-bubble-but-its-not-what-you-think/

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  34. Pt.2
    Still, there remains a degree of uncertainty over the Fed’s actions, meaning Hong Kong’s benign liquidity conditions could continue a while longer. One factor worth considering is how QE is playing out in the ongoing currency adjustment between the U.S. and China. Arguably further QE with its inflationary consequences is only going to heap pressure on China’s yuan to appreciate further — something that might suit U.S. interests.

    Hong Kong remains uniquely stuck in the middle of this currency adjustment between the superpowers of China and the U.S. through its peg. This is unlikely to be a priority, however, for either U.S. or mainland Chinese policymakers.

    Daiwa says it expects no change in the status quo of the Hong Kong dollar peg. It notes that while this exacerbates the boom and bust cycle, “this is a price that the government seems willing to live with.”

    The unknown factor in this currency adjustment is how far the yuan will rise. While a stronger yuan helps offset mainland inflation, it works in reverse for Hong Kong, which imports the majority of its essential foodstuffs from the mainland. Rising prices are already a source of grass-root complaint in Hong Kong, and inflation could become untenable if the yuan were to move significantly higher.

    This all raises the stake in Hong Kong as it watches the Fed. If QE2 is curbed, it could well push the market to roll over. But if the QE policy keeps going, it could well push the Hong Kong dollar peg to the breaking point.

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  35. @vamoose

    Friend, please watch your back, sincerely. /b/ frequents here any they can find anyone, anywhere. I wouldn't go bragging about my millions in gold if I were you... just sayin'

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  36. @Blake, given it's options expiration, I'd wait for at least that small dip that in theory always comes up (27th?). Then I'd also be glued to the TV/Internet screen on what the Bernank says on Wednesday.

    In addition, to time an entry down to the right day, I'd also obviously keep an eye on:
    1. Turd's postings
    2. Ira Epstein's daily metal's report on Youtube
    3. Trader Dan's blog advice
    4. Reload ZeroHedge several times in case of a black swan before clicking BUY.

    If you want to be more conservative, wait till closer to June 30th, when QE2 is supposed to end. In short, any confirmed announcement of QE3 being a go is an *instant* go all-in buy signal until at least QE3 runs its course. I'm only not all in myself right now because I'm still lacking confirmation of QE3 proceeding right after QE2 ends. If there's a gap in between, even if only for a few weeks or a few months - that may be the biggest dip you'll see in all of 2011 and maybe even 2012.

    Good luck!

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  37. @Blake: Great topic.

    I am not an options trader and not the one to speculate on entry points. Here is what I have been doing:

    Possess a comfortable and significant amount of gold and silver bullion – I prefer sovereign coins, even at a bit higher premiums, like American Eagles, Maple Leafs, Krugerrands, etc. and add to this amount regularly over time.

    Second, focus on the bullion depositories, bullion mutual funds and mining stocks.

    20% of Portfolio - Least Speculative. Examples might include:
    - Sprott Gold and Silver Bullion Funds
    - Tocqueville Gold Fund TGLD - a precious metals mutual fund

    30% Moderate Speculation - Larger Mining companies. Examples might include: Pan American Silver PAAS; Agnico Eagle AEM; Silver Wheaton SLV

    50% More Speculative - the Junior Miners and examples might include: First Majestic Silver AG; Great Panther; GLP; Almaden Mineral AAU; Extorre GoldEG –

    So this is but one formula. My strategy is based on the premise, that in the next 90-180-360 days, those mining companies with sound geology, funding and management will do very nicely compared to current prices.

    Hope this helps

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  38. /b/ is a board on 4chan.

    /b/ is the Source of Internet. Everything on the web that ever was, is, or will be - comes from /b/.

    (You probably don't want to go there. But they're tuned into the silver thing and they frequent here, so you gotta protect yourself. I've already said to much and I better rotate my IP's now.)

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  39. /b/

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/4chan#.2Fb.2F

    No lifeguard on duty. Swim at your own risk!

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  40. Good Evening All,
    Enjoyed catching up on all the posts.

    six toes,
    Thank you very much.. and please post about your trades here if you feel comfortable. This coming week is making me feel very aprehensive but I have a game plan.. ..Not as smart as most here for trading but I am thinking out all the possibilities and hoping to do well! I will post my every move.....not because I think what I am doing is even interesting.. (ie: don't have as much in resources as most here) but because it *may* help others who are in my shoes.. AND... because I get great feedback/critique!! :]

    Ninja Report,
    Just wanted to say that I am glad you and yours are safe from the storms. Your list of preparedness items was very valuable reading. Thank you.

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  41. $47.90 high so far, $48 by morning?

    Corn up 17c tonight on planting delays due to wet weather in the midwest corn belt. If you trade this market, watch the weather forecasts.

    Wheat up 20c on dry conditions in TX,OK and
    W KS and also China wheat areas and Europe.

    With the tight corn stocks in the US, any weather issues and old crop corn is gold.

    http://www.indianagrain.com/blog/more-and-more-traders-think-12-corn-is-possible

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  42. Is the great Turd suggesting that there will be no summer doldrums, no seasonal vacations for the big NY traders this summer? The summer doldrums often sees its low in the middle or latter part of June.

    I always had this belief that one of these summers the PM would not pause for sell in May and go a way, but would continue right on through the summer without stopping. Could this be that summer I have long awaited?

    It's not IF the EE is going to strike this options expiry week, it's how much effect the attacks will have. Seven up days in a row for silver each day more than 30 cents. Unprecedented ! Until the fundamentals change like plenty of silver to sell, a believable honest end to QE2, the Fed raises rates significantly, like two points, then I will think a significant pullback or retracement in the PM's is likely, otherwise I have to see it to believe it.

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  43. @ StanR

    Thank you for sharing some insight into your investments. Definitely food for thought.

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  44. An important caveat Turd and a wise thing to reiterate.

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  45. Tristan,

    China does not have 3 Trillion of USD holdings...that is an estimate of their total foreign reserves...their USD holdings are not able to be broken out in IMF reports...ZH headline is wrong, as is their subsequent guess that USD 2 Trillion (in what, Treasuries?) is about to be dumped...

    FOMC Wednesday and Bernanke is due to talk, this is just part of the ongoing negotiations, I say that because the same Chinese guy said similar stuff in 2007...in time it may all happen...but not tomorrow.

    As the PoSX tests lows another eurocrisis erupts...why am I not shocked.

    I really hesitate to write this, but...what's with people coming on here and asking for specific investment advice, not only for themselves but on behalf of family members with what might be their life savings? Maybe I should relax, maybe it is a sign of the times...but, it worries me that they can't even be bothered to at least read Turd's archived posts before asking...

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  46. By the way Turd,
    I appreciate all of your posts about what/how you are investing based on the patterns that you are apparently gifted at seeing and calling. I don't think (I hope) I am not alone in saying that the only person I would EVER hold responsible for my investing decisions is ME. At the end of any day.. you have to take in everything that is put out there...yours and others...analysis and make your own decisions. Sometimes those decisions will be profitable and sometimes you will lose. But always, the decisions that are made are solely each investors' personal responsibility. I would hate to think that some are blaming you if their investing is not panning out. I may lose everything (I kinda will be somewhat shocked if I don't! lol) that I invest. If I do.. it won't be your fault. I will own it because I own the decisions that I make. ...It's still a free country ..for now.

    Thanks for being willing to put your viewpoints out there. Please continue to do so knowing that reasonable people appreciate it!!

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  47. Apples...

    A little more on Maloney's book.

    It is in VERY plain speak, easy to read. It puts the histor of gold/silver into context with all the great civilizations/empires and tells about what happens to them when they start debasing their currency by either watering down or abandoning a gold standard. Then he gets into the investing part and he does this well too.

    He says that you should measure EVERYTHING'S value in term of "ounces of gold/silver then" and comapre to "now." For instance, a good suit in 1920 cost about an ounce of gold... guess what? It still does! Funny how that works.

    It's just a really easy to read book and given your audience, "easy to understand" is going to be the key.

    Just a really good "primer." If Maloney's book won't convince a "non-believer," NO book will and you are just pissing in the wind IMHO.

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  48. Apples,
    Just to echo what fortinbras and old navy said, the mike Mahoney book is excellent, I just got it last night based off of their recommendation (thanks guys!) and I am almost done.

    Other recommendations:
    Ferfal.com, and the book he wrote (this is a guy who survived the collapse in Argentina about 10 years ago.
    Google "sons of liberty silver article" for a "soup to nuts" overview of silver
    Also check out gonzolo lira's blog post from about 6 months ago "how hyperinflation will happen"

    Good luck!

    Eric #2

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  49. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  50. ben: I plan to right a full post soon to discuss what I expect for the summer. Barring a Comex collapse in June/July, pattern from early 2009 (beginning of QE) would suggest that the PMs will trade down and consolidate in the mid-June to mid-August timeframe and then rally for the remainder of the year.

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  51. The avg correction past 1.4x the 200MA has been around 30% since 2003. Different time and different conditions, sure but on cannot rule out human emotion.

    Right now we're sitting at 1.56x the 200MA at $30.7. A 30% haircut in the $49 would be $34.50 or so. Don't get too ahead of yourselves and get ready to back the truck up.

    The market will remain irrational longer than you will remain solvent. Only saying this cause I sense a lot of hysteria on these blogs. Guys getting excited by $1 jump or shocked by 2-3% dips now and again. Think big picture, relax and let it unfold.

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  52. Apple...

    To add to Eric #2's comment, you need to ask yourself this question about your audience and this isn't knocking Eric's suggestions vs Maloney because I like both of his suggestions too. That said, you know these people, so this is what you need to ask yourself before recommending/buying:

    1) Are you trying to scare the crap out of them with near "end of times" scenarios that might turn them off because they'll say "That will NEVER happen here!!!"... if yes, then go with Eric's additional stuff or Orlov's stuff in addition to Maloney, but I'd still say "Maloney first."

    2) Are you trying to get them to "see the light" in an intuitive way that makes sense and won't scare the piss out of them? ... then go with Maloney ONLY.

    Again, not slamming the other stuff, but Maloney won't scare anyone to death, but should scare them enough with info that is so obvious that only a fool could deny it.

    Finally, with Maloney, "investing" is kind of a misnomer in the title of his book in that he is a PHYSICAL ONLY guy and I agree with him the way he pitches it (and he does sell physical). One MUST load up on physical first. His personal plan is to ride the physical bull up and then convert it into real estate once the GSR gets back to historical norms.

    Good luck and let me know if you have any questions.

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  53. Traders can play GDXJ and GDX....BUT when the SHTF these are somewhat risky paper assets compared to owning the actual mining shares.....which I prefer....miners like GG EGO GFI SSRI SLW should be a safer buy and hold if the ponzi paper products become crushed.....the underlying derivatives could destroy many of these etf products.

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  54. Sigh.... Fourth attempt. Will just paste the URL without trying to make it live. I think I may have found our friend Ruprecht, or at least one of his flying monkey buddies. He seems genuinely hung up on Blythe. (This is pt.1 to the above segment).

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/holiday-no-holiday-doesnt-matter-silver-still-buck#comment-1196401

    There's a lot of things said about the woman that are pretty off the mark. The first point to understand is she did not "invent" the CDS contract. She was part of a group that came up with the idea of the CDO, the bundling of numerous credits into a pool and creating a synthetic instrument that mirrors the payout, then taking it a step further and creating tranches with different risk profiles. I think she was horrified by the way the product was abused by the banking industry in the mortgage market.

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  55. Apples

    paperempire just posted an article that describes the silver bubble (ty for that paperempire). After reading it, I looked at the previous article.

    http://paperempire.net/2011/03/20/qe-is-the-end-of-america-as-we-know-it/

    It explains in basic terms the mess the Fed and QE has gotten us into and where it's going.

    As for which hard assets to invest in, well, like most here, I'm biased to silver. This has been posted many times here:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IiarVvZguY

    It's a powerful message. I think it was made in December 2010, so the GSR ratio of 50:1 is a bit outdated lol. Shows how fast things have moved tho.

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  56. pt. 2 (just reposted here so it wouldn't be above part 1)
    She was one of the drivers of this product area, but I would not say she was the dominant intellect, but rather a chosen person who became the public face. She then moved into a group that used such instruments to manage risk, becoming chief risk officer and CFO. She was given the plumb job of running the commodities group shortly before the recent financial crisis, with the idea of developing more complex synthetic investment products, in what was felt to be a growing area.

    The silver shorts were largely inherited from Bear Sterns, but have grown significantly since. I don't know, but I suspect the real entity is the Fed, using the bank as a intermediary.

    What I can say is she understands risks and risk positions very well, but is not a "trader" or a speculator in any sense, so I find no credence in the idea she is taking on the world single handedly in trying to suppress silver prices. I can also say that there are many many sociopaths in Wall Street, and she is not one of them. However, the JPM silver positions are going to lead to her downfall, as she will be the one made to take the blame.

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  57. With the dollar currently moving up--at the moment it is 74.02--along side China's announcement of off-loading $2 trillion of US debt; are we witnessing Calvin's "bounce" that Turd dicussed a few days ago? If so, would this be a sign of the first step towards hyperinflation? Or what would be the implacations of the dollar moving up, when the writing couldn't more clearly on the wall?

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  58. Apples, my .02 for a silver intro would include this short writeup on the history of paper money. Read how many times fiat has cycled in and out of favor with Chinese civilizations for the past 1000 years. Including outlawing paper currency all-together. They should know, they invented it! Then the article dovetails nicely into today. This is more history than finance and it may be more attractive to different people.

    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schoon/schoon020911.html

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  59. Including mutual funds in your portfolio is like slowly throwing your money off of a building and anyone that has ever taken an introductory class to finance or read some of the better books out there knows that.

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  60. @ Apple

    You might try ChrisMortenson.com. His crash course video series is easy to watch. It will enlighten anyone.

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  61. CD

    "I think she was horrified by the way the product was abused by the banking industry in the mortgage market."

    Then she was stupid. All of those instruments were weapons of mass destruction just waiting to explode. When you develop financial instruments where the underlying asset is nothing but an abstraction to the people investing in it, well, sorry, but you're just asking for trouble. Practical experience (not to mention history) teaches any idiot that.

    And the only thing that horrifies NY bankers is the possibility that their bonuses will be cut. They're nothing but skank.

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  62. Bob Chapman is predicting that we will just continue on up without a true pullback.

    Here's some interviews Bob did over the weekend:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LbodGi5T8ZU&feature=relmfu
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1H3fxzfyYE&feature=feedu

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4mkGIIO5kQ&feature=feedu

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  63. MonkeySmoke,

    The China dump story is wrong (Tyler was told in the comments but hasn't bothered to correct it)...and they can dial up a Euro-crisis story whenever they need to slow the dollar collapse.

    I think there is merit in the view that when too many traders get on one side of the boat...ie, euro/dollar trade.

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  64. @ Irene - I know, which is why the apologist would be kind of funny if he weren't so pathetic.

    My feeling is Blythe could care less. Insofar as she has interest, it is only in having sufficient knowledge/expertise on the subject to give her (and her employer) a leg up on the rest of the competition in exploiting the current 'controlled'(?) chaos and shearing/slaughtering as many sheep as possible (insitutional or individual).

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  65. Chapman's a little scary but he is definitely connected. About a month or two two back he said buy Pretium @ $6. Practically over night it went to 12 and now back to 10.

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  66. Seems a few to quite a few are trying to convince our wives, SO's etc., to trade IRA's, 401k's and so on to cash only to turn into PM's. Be a salesman, state facts, educate them to the coming dead dollar! It took me a few cajolings until she saw the light. She worried 'bout penalties till she realized the benefits! Now she's flush with bought @ $35 Ag! Gettin' it more than ever...if you know what I mean! Thanks TF! What a great marriage counselor!

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  67. CD - I read somewhere that she promotes ballet and research into women's breast cancer. After all the evil she's done, like that's going to make a difference. I don't know how people live with themselves. She's supposed to be brilliant. What kind of a genius destroys their own world for personal profit? It's just sick.

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  68. Wow. Somebody posted this on the ZH thread re: China planning to dump USD reserves:

    Jim Rickards on Economics and Nat. Sec.
    http://vimeo.com/18160394

    Jim is pretty much telling the five-sided building's occupants exactly how the banksters/Fed are the clearest direct threat to the country's immediate security.

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  69. Happy in the woods...

    Know what you mean about all the contradictions. It's like one of those dangerous riptides knocking you around!

    Am nervous about this week! On the one hand, I have a big wad for my last buy to get us 20% in metals. I'm more nervous now than I was 2 years ago when I first bought!

    Had a nice chat with my favorite broker at CMI on Thursday afternoon. He figures that anything up to the $50 mark is an Okay buy. We discussed the various levels of possible correction, how there might be a pretty decent drop, then a rally and a drop back to about the earlier correction levels. But if silver becomses harder to come buy, there might not be any advantage to trying to find the low.

    So, here I sit with silver at 47.865 wondering about buying this week or maybe splitting the money and keeping part out.

    Luckily I do have lower price points, but this is a very big last buy so I'm feeling like any move sort of gamble! All in, partly in...enough to drive you nuts!

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  70. @CD
    The most important concept I took away from his 2 hour lecture, I listened to it in January was.
    When it is time a new reserve currency will be created. Made from a basket of a half a dozen world fiats. But that by itself doesn't get them out of debt. By pricing in gold as another piece (@$8000/oz) TPTB get to retire vast anounts of debt and start the whole process over again. As FOFOA says the debt never goes away it must be paid. Gold will do the job.

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  71. Here is a bit of fascinating speculation on gold-backed dollar from Bix Weir (remember the new series 100 bills that were 'recalled' due to 'printing errors' last year?)

    http://arch10.goldtent.net/2010/05/01/bix-weir-has-an-amazing-take-on-the-new-us-100-dollar-billin-case-you-missed-it/

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  72. @ murphy -- still getting there. This is another of many and increasingly frequent moments when one of these would be handy for direct neural upload:
    http://b.vimeocdn.com/ts/999/119/99911947_200.jpg

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  73. CD - cool I need one. There are not enough hours in the day to read this stuff. Nice link to the new $100. Where there's smoke there's fire?

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  74. H.. said... ...but we did discover this version:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wid6V_f09rA

    Bearapalooza? Lol!
    Sweet acoustic, thanks!

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  75. Titus Andronicus...re: Bob Chapman/little pullback.

    Sort of nervewracking, even Trade Dan is surprised by the silver moves and is a bit nervous! I know that Bill Haynes of CMI considers this (perhaps) becoming an intermediate top. But, at the same time, trying to catch the "best" price as silver goes up, down and up again is just a stress producer.

    Haynes related how he bought a big chunk around 29 back in late December. I actually did too, around that level. We saw a price drop of a few bucks and look where we are now. He said that on any drop, he would just hold, which is what I have done and will continue to hold.

    Still, the "greed factor" is there....wanting to get in as low as possible!

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  76. Insight- I heard Haynes do an interview telling that he was invited to make a presentation to sell physical to the heirs of the Colgate Palmalov family. They forced their broker to arrange the meeting. He said at the end of the day he was told that they were going to start with a $5M investment. He had never made that big a sale in 40 years. My point, if people like this and the U of Texas endowment funds continue to invest no telling how quick things might go.

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  77. Whoa, 48.16 just flashed by on TOS

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  78. last of 48.13....$50 needs to happen soon. Let's get this ball moving faster. It's better to die on your feet than live on your knees. Time is 'tptb' friend, not ours.

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  79. Holy Moley.... I'm starting to think that even the great and powerful Turd is a little conservative with his predictions.... this pup may just take off with minimal dips, it leaves me with the possible strategy of just buying full in at the opening and just hanging on.

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  80. I am starting to get suspicious about this Bernanke meeting. The other day I commented that there may be some significance to the timing of Bernanke's speeche, and this China wanting to hold far less US Treasuries news story that gets leaked over a holiday weekend really is troubling me. This seems all to cliche for a playbook out of TPTB playbook. Is this story new or was this a released timing? Does the FED have knowledge that this was going to come out (I am sure China let them know in advance) in anticipation to respond to this new situation?

    After all, China wants a slow devaluation, not a collapse... so it is not to hard to stretch that China gave some forewarning and these meetings will be used to counteract these new conditions. Will we see new policy clever disguised with patriotic limbo now that the only people that the FED will have to fool will be the American Public as it purchases all of its new debt? Probably not, but I am suspicious none the less.

    Something major is going on right now, and the internet community is not tuned into it. Too much is going on in the world right for financial stability to reign. The inflation is coming, and it is time for Ben to move in a new direction it feels like...

    Stay open minded, but let time be the story-teller.

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  81. Insight and Murphy,

    Bob Chapman is one of the few PMs guys I know who was saying there would not be a significant pullback in this bull run.

    There really has not been a significant pull back since the silver bull started last August.

    I think Chapman and James Turk were the best at predicting the price action of silver so far.

    But don't get me wrong, I'm all over Turd's site all day long.

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  82. @Walt

    I have owned the Tocqueville Gold(TGLDX)mutual fund for sevral years with solid results - last year it was up 46.14%-its holdings are physical bullion and large and medium cap miners. John Hathaway founder and manager is a experienced investor and active in sharing his views point view. Look him up

    TGDLX is an anchor for the steady growth portion of my strategy as a balance to more speculative plays. This may be an anomaly to your blanket dismissals about mutuals.

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  83. $48.23! $50 by COMEX open?

    www.silverdoctors.com

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  84. It's shooting up again now! Watch the birdie.

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  85. Now it's getting a little scary... are things going to come apart Monday Morning?

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  86. $48.47.. can't believe I didn't buy that dip to $47.75 a few minutes ago.

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  87. kiwiquest07.com: Scary? You ain't seen nothing yet. Be long and strong. And don't worry.

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  88. Holy sh*t... the half-life of 30-year highs is getting to be quite short...

    Does anyone remember the EXACT nominal high? Wasn't it $48.50? Aren't we at $48.475

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  89. The Silver Panic of 2011 may have just begun.

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  90. wow whats going on up almost $2
    $48.46
    +$1.84
    (+3.94%)
    Blythe we need you to create a dip to buy! haha

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  91. I think 49,45 was the high.

    If we get there in short order and the headlines pick up "new all time silver highs", this could get a little disorderly to the upside.

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  92. We are now up $2.40 since Thursday's pit close.

    Has silver ever moved so much in a single day? And the pit hasn't even opened.

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  93. @SilverBleve: We got a dip to $47.70 from 47.95 about 30 minutes ago. Sad that 25 cents is considered a dip in this market, but it is.

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  94. Turds, it is not BTFD anymore it is BTFBlip

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  95. Looks like the Aussies are getting while the getting is good...

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  96. wow, its going to be an EPIC week! $48.50 now and jumping all over the place, most of asia is closed but volume is notable for this time of day... (early morning MENA time)

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  97. Expect huge margin increases on Tuesday. HUGE. Probably $20K per contract for initial.

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  98. Anyone who was short at the close of COMEX trading on Thursday is f**ked big time. I expect some big short covering come tomorrow morning.

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  99. Just a little more and I can cover the 4% premium from Goldmoney from earlier today

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  100. cheers turdites 48.54 and rising

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  101. weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

    Look mom, no hands!!!!!

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  102. This is more frightening than exciting at this point. Especially since it looks like this huge move is still in the early stages.

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  103. I guess Chuck Norris started buying silver. He doesn't wait for the dips.

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  104. Whoa.. the charts are just jumping leaving huge gaps. What is happening here!?

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  105. Glad I stayed long going into the weekend, this shit is nuts. Now if we could just get this momentum to carry over into the miners all will be gravy baby!

    Just spiked up to $48.80?!?!

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  106. The "dam" has broken ladies and gentlemen.

    48.79

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  107. looks like it's trading like a mining stock

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  108. Well, depending on the action later this morning, I am thinking I should have gotten a LOT longer in paper silver on Thursday.... 20/20 hindsight as always... Thanks atlee and others reminding me about the possibility of this, at least I am not OUT...

    Can you say CSF? $1 up in half an hour?

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  109. Whoa... I can only imagine what folks may think as they wake up in the am and check the prices.

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  110. @ Titus,
    Chuck Norris doesn't buy silver, silver buys Chuck Norris.

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  111. This is epic. One of those moves you tell your grandkids about.

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  112. 48.98 are we going to see 50 TONIGHT? Turd are you watching this?

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  113. This is really stupid, but $49.00! I am still rubbing my eyes.

    Majorly uncharted territory, folks....

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  114. 50 tonight looks possible.

    49.20!!!!!!

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  115. I'm afraid to go to sleep.... is there no news out there to support whats going on?

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  116. For those who dream of leveraging silver, May 50 calls are up 100x in the past 2 weeks. Up 10x in the last 2 trading sessions.

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  117. Everyone's talking about silver, but hey, how about that dollar? ;-)

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  118. this is really freaking me out.. and to think i got out over the weekend.

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  119. MELT UP ALERT!!! 49.35!! Now 49.49....

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  120. This is VERY HEAVY VOLUME! This is RAID volume.

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  121. At this rate, we won't have a chance at silver below $50 -- we'll be there in 10 more minutes ($49.82)

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  122. Holy @#$%, someone is emptying the piggy bank and swapping for silver tonight. I love being a night owl, we are close to being at a new ALL-TIME high!

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  123. 49.75

    who's the first to say 50?

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  124. Australia is on holiday.
    This is all Asia.

    word ver: firesup!

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  125. 49.63, if we see 50, I'm cracking a bottle of scotch at 10pm here happy easter. I smell bos.

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  126. WHOA.. now she's fallin hard

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  127. I'm pretty sure that was a snuff film of a short position dying.

    Will probably calm down now.

    Or not.

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  128. Maybe the fact that China will reduce her dollar reserves????? Blythe has her work cut out for her this week she just dumped 6000 volume on silver,, hahaha

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  129. wth is going on ??? is that China shifting its reserves ??? What is going on? :O this is nuclear size shifts. It went up 5% in matter of minutes. :O

    P.S. according to Wiki, the Hunt Brother's high is/was 48.70 On to the inflation adjusted target now :)

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  130. TOS shows a high print of 49.82, wow... now a big pullback to 49. I guess I won't be sleeping tonight.

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  131. LOL @ attacked. I would have taken some off of the table too at 49.75 ahead of major resistance. It's profit taking. Doubt it lasts an hour.

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  132. This is f**king nuts. How is one supposed to get any sleep with this shit going on?

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  133. We went over the all time closing high of 49,45. All time intermediary trading high is 50,2 I think.

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  134. Wow, forget an hour. It won't last 5 minutes. This is nuts.

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  135. Blythe will in vain exhaust all of her ammo tonight and it will soar again in the morning. Seems if there is a big takedown just before Nymex
    opens, usually indicates gonna be Bos during Ny trading hours.

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  136. I almost called it a night.. now I almost swallowed my tongue trying to stutter out WTF, now I can't close my mouth. Sleep?!? Not tonight..

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  137. PLEASE KEEP YOUR ARMS AND LEGS INSIDE THE VEHICLE AT ALL TIMES!

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  138. 49.26 as I write.....EEK!

    From Ray Merriman's weekly forecast (4/25):

    "In the meantime, once we pass the Venus-Saturn opposition, there is nothing blocking the path of the “Asset Inflation Express.” Its only danger is driving too fast, too recklessly. And on that point, we note that next week also finds heliocentric Mercury in Sagittarius, once of the wildest patches in the cosmos, and a time when precious metals can trade in very large price ranges. With five planets still in Aries, get ready for another crazy week."

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  139. this is really insane, how the hell am i suppose to pay attention to the remainder of my mad men episodes with all this silver raiding going on :) w

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  140. Takedown? Unless they can push the price 10% then it's not much of a takedown. We just had a $2 hourly bar print. This is covering time. Anyone who still believes in Blythe and any mystical powers that she may possess should have learned by the time we hit $45 that she's dead in the water.

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  141. $0.90 swan dive -- but the FUBM is already on... I am coming around to the viewpoint that EE simply cannot stop this any longer. The juggernaut is loose and gaining steam. There seems to be a spot of ultraviolence coming in the days and weeks ahead.

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  142. Very very unusually high volume tonight regardless. This is scaring the crap out of Blythe and the J.P. Morgue.

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  143. I think this is why metals are screaming higher... along the same lines as the ZH article:

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/42743681

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  144. murphy-

    I think this qualifies as a FUFUFUBM...

    Or perhaps "The striking Anaconda"...

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  145. WOW, good times for anyone up and watching this! This is exactly what the silver market would look like on a daily basis without the algo's on, my take is you have two types of trades going through right now

    1) Manually entered buy trades (rumors of a big European/Asian buying)
    2) Triggered stop/stop-losses/liquidations

    and without the market maker you have a thin order book that is getting banged hard in both directions... as Turd has said many times, be careful out there

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  146. Wow! Got in at 48.08 rode up to 49.75, then it started falling like a rock . Tried to get out at Market. Kept saying "order rejected".

    Finally got out at 48.93 with $875 profit.

    Whew!

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  147. Holy Turd Batman, My Take Profit at 49.50 was hit. (Bought at $34) NEVER EXPECTED IT TODAY.

    This is crazy stuff.

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  148. How to turn $10,000 into $1M: Buy May OTM calls one week ago and sell tonight. Any questions (other than why we all aren't millionaires right now)?

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  149. Very thin volume on options, but I would love to take a little profit here. Considering getting out of my May 45 call but the spread is crazy, $2.201 bid / $4.000 ask. Saw a $4.9 on the ask earlier.

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  150. I was afraid we were heading down for a minute there, but it seems to have stabilized just under $49... what a ride!

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  151. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  152. @Curtains: Just place the limit order. Those are getting filled like crazy on these spikes. The demand is there, but most of the order book seems to be fill or kill and hidden.

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  153. I'm guessing a lot of that profit taking was automated with stops being triggered. It'll go back up there again later today...and only God knows where to after!

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  154. I bet Turd is sleeping, HA. He missed the fireworks show.

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  155. The intraday high refers to the highest price during the day. According to "Financial Crises: Understanding the Powerwar U.S. Experience" p.71, and "The Great Silver Bubble" p.144, the intraday price of silver on January 18 1980 reached $50.36 on COMEX and $52.50 on CBOT.

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  156. Bob Chapman's been saying it for the past couple days - Silver just goes straight up from here. He may be right.

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  157. Looks like my guy at CMI will have to rip up my checks. When I talked to him Thursday, he said they wouldn't take checks after Monday...but, being a good customer (good enough to get a free book on WTF is happening to our money),he said I could just send in the check and call and he'd lock in the price.

    Maybe it will get so crazy I'll just have them sent back or ripped up.
    This is nuts an I'm glad I've got what I've got in already.....

    back to 48.76...Whew, I can breath a bit for a moment!
    This is going to be very wild....as per Merriman plus the Bradley Siderograph has changed.... the move is sharply up as of now but watch for re-dip around May 6-10.

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  158. If "The Morgue" was planning to capitulate at 55-60 (Bob Chapman's best guess); tonights show has to scare the crap out of everyone. Because 55 could come one evening in Asia and the next morning could bring 70 the way this thing is moving.

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  159. JoeKa - I almost forgot London is closed today... when does trading end in Asia? Maybe I can get a little sleep after all.

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  160. Damn TF! What did you do??
    Is she on the plane already?

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  161. so is SLW gonna finally roll with this rally this week? thoughts?

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  162. We close up here ard 5.00pm...so thats 5.00am for you guys. Get some shuteye.

    See you chaps later.

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  163. SCREW SLEEP! THIS NIGHT IS EPIC!!

    www.silverdoctors.com

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  164. Does anyone know where I can read more about delivery and futures? I am a bit confused by the 'rollover' front month contract terminology.

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  165. Did anyone see any crazy movements in any other markets?

    Seems just silver went crazy!

    Gold had some high volume with movement, but seems there's nothing in the Dollar, Euro, Yen, SP500 (ES). Strange!

    Is this correct? Anyone seeing anything different?

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  166. No, this is purely a silver move. The DX is practically unchanged (-0.1%) and other commodities have gone up maybe 0.1-0.3% in the same time frame.

    Parabolic movement in silver alone. Now imagine if/when the USD does it's normal 0.5% drop during the normal trading session.

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  167. Myron - yeah, I guess I should, but I won't be able to sleep not knowing if it executes. Did you buy some May OTM last week? I wish I'd bought more, I only have the one May 45. I was going to avoid OpEx by a few days, glad I didn't.

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  168. Anyone want to bet that the miners are DOWN tomorrow? LOL!

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  169. Bob Chapman interview -- strong warning about effects of COMEX default (de facto or otherwise) on paper PMs

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LbodGi5T8ZU&feature=player_embedded

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  170. Kitco shooting out misleading 1 dollar drops not confirmed by other sites....bastards...

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  171. Here is the bit about no resistance at $50 (Chapman interview cont'd):

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1H3fxzfyYE&feature=iv&annotation_id=annotation_699602

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  172. Think I just detected an Eastward shift in the axis of the Earth. The weight of all that silver heading to Asia. Now if the Anaconda can just 'keep it up' tomorrow.

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  173. I did actually, but here's the funny part: I bought a pair of May 42.5 calls about 10 days ago. Took a decent one day profit and closed the trade around 2. Now worth 7.50 per contract... $75K at the end of the day. Had a limit order open the same day for a boatload of May 45's at 0.05 per contract but decided against it. Those 45's are up a ton over the last week as well. Couldn't have seen this coming before OpEx since I figured the MM's would push this down to allow options to expire worthless. Goes to show you never can predict these markets.

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  174. Amazing ... I am watching the silver movements on my iPhone Kitco app. The ups and downs are so intense (i.e. 40-60 cents movements in either direction in 2-3 seconds) that they can register on the numeric readout of the app, but never show up on the chart itself. I think chart reading (with these kinds of volatile ups and downs) will no longer accurately reflect the battles going on at the exchange. Amazing ....

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  175. Thank god for SPAN margin. Just picked up May 50 calls on the dip to 48.50 at $18 initial margin per call.

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  176. If these gains disappear before open Im going to be pissed!

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  177. This thread is nearly as entertaining as the thought of the money that will flow in to pay for me Easter holiday, Turd I would like to officially declare my turdness, thank you.

    With Asia shutting down and Europe and the US markets closed today, presumably we have price shut down until the Aussies tomorrow, all a bit nerve wracking...............wonderful stuff!

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