Hello, all. The Turd and all of the Fergusons hope that you've had a safe and fun holiday weekend.
The PMs opened higher at 6:00 EDT and are still rolling. I have a last of $47.77 in May silver and gold is $1513. Crude is up. The grains are up. Its all kickin ass.
If you haven't already, you should probably take a minute to read this:
Trust me, there not rolling out of dollars into Venezuelan bolivars. A lot of this money is going into PMs.
Much of the hubbub tonight seems to be over the rising May open interest numbers. Here, see for yourself:
Now, before you get all carried away, you'd better do some historical research.
49,418 with five days to go is a lot. Its even more impressive when compared to the 46,839 OI basis Wednesday night. However, for perspective, with five days to go before first notice day in February, the OI for the March contract was even higher at 50,888. This is not to say that, in the end, we won't have a higher number of "standing" contracts come Friday...but...don't let your emotions get the better of you simply because the number increased back on Thursday.
As you know, I discern and follow pattern. The pattern from last November (first notice for the Dec10) and February (first notice for the Mar11) is for a brief but sharp selloff in days 4 to 2 before first notice day. This raid is orchestrated to "convince and nudge" as many front-month contract holders to roll as possible. I fully expect the same pattern this week. As The Wicked Witch told you yesterday, after a rally to $48+, expect a quick drop back toward 46 or 45. From there, pattern tells us that silver will rally through the first week of the delivery month as hope remains that the Comex will be unable to fulfill the settlement of the delivery contracts. A similar rally from late this upcoming week until Friday, the 6th of May, will take us from the area around $46 up to $50 or even $52. Its all right here, if you haven't already watched it:
Lastly, I want to remind all readers, old and new, to read the disclaimer at the bottom of this page. Judging from the amount of emails I've received lately, many of you need a refresher. If you are taking investment advice from a guy named "Turd" and managing your investments based upon the musings of a cartoon character, you seriously need to re-evaluate your decision-making process. I am here to provide my guidance based upon my experience but it is up to you to decide what to do with it. The Turd should only be a small piece of the puzzle, if at all.
Keep an eye on things tonight and get ready for a very volatile week. Watching the PMs over the next few days will not be for the faint of heart. TF