Wednesday, April 27, 2011

The Things The Ben Will Say

Here is all you really need to know regarding the unprecedented Fed "openness" that will be on display this afternoon:
As you know, The Fed is trying to walk a tightrope. The overwhelming deficit and debt of the U.S. government is requiring fresh funding to the tune of about $1.5T/year. There are no buyers. Left with no other option, the Fed "digitizes" money to fund the daily operations of the government. Without this intervention, rates would skyrocket. In a natural market, rates would rise until they reached a point where investors felt compensated for the principal and inflation risk they are assuming. What would that rate be? It's impossible to say for sure but it certainly isn't 3.5%. If the natural buyer/seller equilibrium of 7% or 10% was allowed to be achieved, three very bad things would happen:
1) U.S. economic activity would essentially stop.
2) This would collapse tax revenue, further exacerbating the debt/deficit issue.
3) The "interest component" of the national debt would more than double in a short period of time, again further exacerbating the deb/deficit issue.

Left with no alternative, quantitative easing continues. The problem is, as you well know, that QE is killing the dollar and causing meteoric rises is almost all things dollar-denominated. This only further serves to build in even more inflation risk into any bond investment. This forces the Fed to print even more money as even more potential buyers shun U.S. treasuries. Its a very unpleasant cycle and one that will end badly.

For now (and the reason for the press conference), the problem is the rapidly falling dollar. Go back up and look at the charts. You can clearly see that, for the time being, The Bernank has more wiggle room in the Long Bond than he does in the POSX. Critical support for the Long Bond is down around 114. Critical support for the POSX is around 72. So, expect Ben to be just "hawkish" enough that the POSX rallies and the bond sells off. He'll try to be "not too hot and not too cold". It might even work...for a day or two. Then sanity will prevail and market participants will get back to the fundamental picture described above. QE is not ending. It can't. The dollar will reverse and, in a week or so, it will likely be right back to where it is this morning, if not lower.

What does this all mean for the metals today?
As I've stated ad nauseam, pattern suggests that the metals will trade higher from here into the end of next week. However, as I've also stated ad nauseam, TA can only take you so far in markets that are so blatantly and openly manipulated. Simply stated, no amount of chart reading can allow someone to predict exactly what the lying shill Bernank will say today. For the next 24 hours or so, we're all flying blind.

To that end, it dawned on me that this would be another great day for a contest!! From now until 1:00 EDT, this thread can be used to place your guesses so that may win you your own, autographed yellow hat. For today's contest, you must pick the combined price of gold and silver as of 5:15 EDT, when the Globex closes for the day. For example, if you think that gold will be $1506.80 and silver will be 45.45, then your guess is 1552.25.

From ZH, here's your schedule of events.

Below is an expected timeline of events, reproduced from Monday’s US Daily:

12:30pm – FOMC statement released.The Fed’s website gives the time as “around 12:30pm”, which will come as no surprise to Fed watchers used to twiddling their thumbs for several minutes after the scheduled release time. (Just to keep market participants on their toes, the statement does occasionally come out a minute or two before the scheduled time.)
 
2:15pm – Press conference begins. 
We expect Fed Chairman Bernanke to make an introductory statement which will feature the FOMC’s projections for growth, unemployment and inflation (but probably not the detailed distribution of these forecasts nor discussion of the staff’s forecasts). An article published today on the Wall Street Journal website (“Federal Reserve Irons Out Details of Post-Meeting Press Conference”, by Jon Hilsenrath) implied that any introduction is likely to be very short. According to the article, additional published information on the FOMC forecasts, along the lines of Table 1 in the Fed minutes from the January 25-26 meeting, will be made available on the Fed website at this time. Assuming this is correct, it would imply that detailed information on the distribution of forecasts, and on the staff’s economic forecasts, would not be revealed until the publication of the minutes (though of course these subjects could surface during the question and answer session).

ca. 2:25pm – Question and answer session begins.
This is a live session with journalists, who are likely to be well prepared with probing questions. The questions have not been submitted to the Fed in advance.

Sometime around 3pm or slightly after 
– Press conference ends.The typical length of an ECB press conference in recent years has been about 45 minutes, perhaps a little longer recently. The aforementioned WSJ article suggested a similar length for the Fed’s first conference.


Have a fun day. If anyone out there can help out The Turd by making another spreadsheet with all the guesses, it would be greatly appreciated.  TF

555 comments:

  1. Turd, GREAT idea, what fun! Will have my gold/silver sum back to you in a bit.

    Thanks Brotha

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  2. I don't really want a hat, but how about one of those ASEs that Monkey Smoke was displaying in his picture?

    $1569.87

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  3. 1561.51 on the Bernank having less impact on the price than we expect.

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  4. NPR's morning business blurb was a chuckle...
    "Everyone knows what the FOMC will say, but the wild card is how smoothly Bernanke answers the questions" (sic)....any off-nuance, etc. will set things off. They gave a few examples of previous "burps" from the current and previous chairmen....

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  5. $1549.12

    I agree with your analysis TF, however I'm not quite sure they care about the long term debt of this country in relation to their all-mighty dollar. Severely F'ed for always, thus goes the financial "economy".

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  6. Hi Turd - you post to Australia? Sun shines brightly down here - i need me one of those hats!

    1545.45

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  7. QE will not end. Not even re-investing maturities will be enough. After some timeframe they'll have to start to buy outright again.

    Anyway.. the last two days' smackdowns have been right around this time, 9 to 10 am NY time. Let's see....

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  8. 1555.90

    Just because I like the number :)

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  9. shazzy, no you ain't 1st. Beat you to it :-)

    but who cares about first anyway? Except when it comes to The Hat that is. I want one!

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  10. http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/
    Must read, great summary of things we aleady know, but succinct and well written.

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  11. $1575.30. Desperation will be plain for everybody to see.

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  12. Golly wow, that awful POS SLW is back over 40.

    I know I'm just completely shocked, what about you Turds?

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  13. I'm going to be a wuss and wait until 12:50..... the FOMC minutes will push the PMs in the general direction, the Bernake will just give them an extra shove.

    So, Turd, are you buying hats in bulk?

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  14. xty

    I know you like to stay away from eBay, because it's like crack, but those 50 Pesos come up there pretty regularly. That's where I snagged mine.

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  15. What if he doesn't show up. 1577

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  16. 1544.87. Please, please, please can I at least borrow Monkey Smoke's hat for a day if I win?

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  17. I'm guessing
    Silver 44.96
    Gold 1508.00
    Total 1552.96

    Also
    POSX 75.1

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  18. Will Turd be there in big hat to question the Bernank?

    Guess: $1543.02

    The EE will accomplish (barely) their knock below 1500/45. Globex will take it up from there.

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  19. Hey Turd!!

    THANK YOU AGAIN

    my guess.... at 1:00 before the conference....
    1565.25

    G

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  20. yay a fun contest!

    im guessing...

    1553.23$

    heh. i suppose if i lose out today on the portfolio at least i have something else fun and interesting to look forward to.

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  21. Everyone seems to be expecting the dollar to rally and the PMs to take a nosedive. IMHO, this will indeed happen, immediately followed by a steep reversal which brings us back to near current levels.. All this within a timeframe of an hour! :) I just hope these miners will finally have lift-off again...

    My combined guesstimate: $1554.35

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  22. 1547.55 Keeping close to the key stops for options expiration.

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  23. Justmy2cents - not trying to step on your bet, but I had silver at 46.65, and gold at 1515.98 = 1562.63.

    and 1st is a very low bet.

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  24. 1538.50

    Thanks Turd. That seems pretty clear. Short long bond, long POSX, wait for dip in metals after the dog and pony show..

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  25. Greek 2yr 25.61%

    Ladies and Gentlemen Mr. Frank Sinatra.

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  26. I see someone already has 1566 so change to 1570 and make it interesting.

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  27. SLW 39.77

    -20% from recent high.

    Spare me the crowing. When it takes out $45, you can get snarky. Then again, if you just sat there and held through a 20% correction, you'll have nothing to crow about. I took it on the chin, I thought, and sold a good percentage of my SLW holdling at 42.35.

    Keep up the snark though.

    SK

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  28. OK, change mine to 1565. Don't want to step on NCD's toes.

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  29. Wow! This is going to be a big contest.
    Again, someone with some extra time, please post a spreadsheet of all the guesses. Thanks!!!!!!!!

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  30. NCD: I knew this would be a popular contest thus the combined price. We need guesses down to pennies, not dollars, or there will be a lot of ties.

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  31. And then of course, NCD changed his too. Just leave me at 1565, that's fine. Hat size, 7.5. thanks.

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  32. Eric - I see they have them on Apmex by individual date, at 69.99 over spot. But I don't really care about the date - and that might not be a very bad price, especially if the exchange rate works out - without giving away all your secrets, about how much over spot did eBay work out to? Apmex will cost me about $10 for shipping. Are there better dates? And how are the apple trees looking? My forsythia is just blooming here in the frozen north, and the early tulips are out - I would think apple trees would be just beginning to get beautiful. One of the prettiest things I ever saw was an apple tree worked through a fence and pruned back over twenty years, creating a flowering fence in the spring, and an apple fence in the fall. An old-fashioned gardening technique falling out of practice in our instant grat society.

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  33. 1600.60 - thanks for the chance to enter and win

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  34. Ok how's this for aggresive:

    $1600 (gold 1550 and silver 50)

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  35. Are NCD and Eric#1 the same person??? lol, you guys are hitting the keys with the simultaneity of identical twins!

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  36. 1553.76

    Greetings from Belarus to ya'all!

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  37. $1571.22

    Hat size 58

    Thanks Turd.

    P.S I just went long sliver pre-bernak, just to keep it interesting....

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  38. Regardless of what ole Ben says today the news will only be talking about Obama's birth certificate now. Nice cover if Ben needs to confess.

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  39. $1561.65... it'll probably back trace then skyrocket i'd guess

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  40. 1557.41
    As long as there isn't another 10% drop off I'll be happy, who knows what crap Bernake will spew today.
    Long term though I agree I can't see him ending QE unless they introduce a new QE-ish program that does the same job injecting liquidity but under another moniker to appease those calling for an end to the QE program

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  41. Here is my guess:

    $1,556.70

    Many thanks!

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  42. my guess is 1565.50 Was just over by 2 or 3 pennies last time so low balling this time :)

    Price is right rules

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  43. Looks like every body is here. Xty can you pass around the nibbles

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  44. The Chairsatan special
    $1566.66

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  45. i am no good at spreadsheets, but this should be simple right? One column? If so, maybe I could give it a try - but patience will be required - so no barking at me if it is a bit slow to emerge.

    I will do it - and maybe H could provide some hand holding as he is the past expert.

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  46. Au $1514.63

    Ag $46.11
    ~~~~~~~~~~~
    Total $1560.74

    PO$X $73.81

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  47. 1562.15

    Gold is the hard one to guess here. Definitely an interesting subject!

    On a side note trying to buy the dip for another physical purchase, probably going to advise to pull the trigger within an hour. Anyone think there will be any better dips than from an hour from now (maybe until release of FOMC minutes or comex close?)

    Any thoughts would be appreciated.

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  48. The spreadsheet keeper deserves a hat, too. It'll be a big pain in the ass keeping up with this thread. Sounds like a job for a bean counter. *cough* Eric *cough*

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  49. Word verif: peniz. That rocks.

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  50. Don't have any clue why, but my AAU has gone nuts the last two days. Total spec play that has put some real fiat in my pocket.

    CDE struggling today. What's with that stock. Yesterday it took off. Today, it founders.

    THe clowns at HL still haven't released their earnings. Thought it was supposed to be before market open. Anyone know otherwise?

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  51. 1568. The players will try and front-run BenRon at the first prepubescent quiver in his first sentence. Mad pushing and trampling of bodies as the starter bell goes off.

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  52. doc - might have to get Eric to make the bacon wrapped canned cheese curd appetizers, as I am foolishly about to tackle the spreadsheet. So folks don't hide the bet in a long post, and TF said down to the penny, so Pat and a few others need to add some 'common cents' to their bets.

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  53. Hey gang, anyone got a read on Canadian Zinc? CZICF is down to like .94 p/share. I've checked the site and other sources to see if any bad news emerged, but can't find any. Maybe they just got shorted particularly hard and some shareholders had to bail?

    If their pre-feasibility study and their Enviro permit application are both proceeding w/o issue, it just may be that Canadian Zinc is now rounding into a very good buy.

    Irene, Eric, other CZ owners- - any insights?

    Thanks for the assist

    PS: word verification: grothin. I've recently lost 20 pounds. Wow, is Turd sharp or what?

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  54. Turd-

    I'd suggest we work on the honor system, since it would be easy to go back and check.

    At 5.15, you could just use the website "find" function to find all the picks within a dollar (i.e. if it's 1545.50, do a search for "1545", and then eyeball which is closest.

    Just a thought!

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  55. My random number generator says $1555

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  56. Atlee...

    You looking to day trade TBT today?

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  57. Oh damn! Turd has pulled another hat trick.

    XTY - Mex 50 Cent low prim

    http://www.gainesvillecoins.com/products/154661/Mexican50GoldPesoCentenarios(12057oz).aspx

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  58. SSK, my best stock move ever was getting the hell out of HL. Those guys really know how to stick it to shareholders.

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  59. Oh fun! I missed the last contest...

    $1553.97

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  60. ewc,
    I was just looking at CZN. :[

    Maybe Eric was right. *gulp* :[

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  61. ring for the hat, $1543.38 in those declining dollar things

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  62. It pains me but put me down for 1538.29

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  63. Gold - $1,539.51
    Silver - $46.47
    Total - $1,585.98

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  64. Kiwi - You make too much sense! Trying to take people's jobs away from them?

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  65. 1555.14 hoping to have a little birthday luck! I want that hat..

    MikeG

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  66. anyone know if our Hawaiian friend is on board today? I need to ask him about air quality on the Big Island. 1568 astroblast off a pre-gibbering low. Its just about time for the Turd Ferguson t-shirts to be rolled out, I'll put in a preorder.

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  67. I'm sure Dumb-Dumb Bernank will try to put the dollar UP.
    It's impossible for it to continue further down, else we'll be looking at other -not so important currencies- get even stronger and that wont happen (Imagine a Mexican Peso paring with the dollar, impossible!)

    So, I support greatly Mr Turd Fergusons guess, this means that it is possible we'll be looking at a lower Gold Spot price, from around 1490.00 and Silver at 43.65.

    My (sadly bearish) guess would be 1533.65

    @XTY, Do not pay too much for a Mexican Silver Coin. Regardless its price should be around spot + premium (just like any Silver Eagle, et all)

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  68. Can someone post the link to the fed for a live stream of the press conference and the result of the meetings?

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  69. $1,569.69

    Gold hits a new high. Silver surges a bit.

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  70. Im goin for the nosedive.
    1540.37

    Size L, my head is huge.

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  71. Doc is right, EVERYONE is here today. Very cool. Now wouldn't it be fun if all the Turdinistas from Belarus to Boston could be in the same place just for a few hours today? Beverage in hand, watching the coverage on the big screen, we could all boo hiss and heckle Benron during the press conference. The side conversations would be fascinating... Oh well.

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  72. Mister,

    Yeah, I've been trying to sell my HL holdings since the EPA disaster. You can only be screwed so many times. HL was, at one time, my largest holding. It has everything going for it: location, lowest cost NA producer, outstanding growth, base metals finally kicking in (before they hedged, like idiots). Yep, everything except competent management. Baker should be flogged.

    SLW at 39.53. Where's the snark?

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  73. Johnboat-

    Too funny.... I used to work in robotics and automation, I suggested to the boss that our corporate motto should be "Our job is to replace your job".... he was not impressed.... ;-)

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  74. 1556.66

    We all know how they like the "666" pattern.

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  75. Continued downward pressure leading up to the event, pushdown after minutes are released, volatility and then another brief pushdown after the press conference and then the goose egg sinks in and we get a big push! $1574.45.

    Other Greg: I guess we'll have to iron out our name issue...

    Spreadsheet owner - you can put me down as Gdoggus if that helps.

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  76. $45 seems to be a champ...for now.
    Several bounce-ups from that point over the past two days.

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  77. $1564.41 on calling the Bernank's B.S.

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  78. 1583.15 oh yeah baby to the moon

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  79. Another hat! It's the must-wear so my guess:

    1568.28

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  80. Kiwi - How about code that says the same thing?

    our corporate motto should be - R2DOU

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  81. David

    Try this link for news coverage:
    http://www.zahipedia.com/2010/02/19/watch-cnbc-usa-live-online/

    Several other options available besides CNBC. It can be iffy at times, goes off for no reason, but it's the most reliable one I've found. Maybe someone knows of another.

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  82. taking silver down hard right now.
    i just wonder if this is the last push down on that coiled spring and then the shorts all of a sudden go long sometime after the speech.

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  83. XTY: you're a really good egg to take that on. I'll have mine in later.

    SSK: apparently we ain't ever gonna see eye to eye on SLW. The good news: I'm right there with you on Almaden. They thought Elk in BC was their flagship up until the E. Sierra Madre project took off. Great Prospect Generator with lots of nice prospects. Plus Elk and Mexico.

    The Father/Son team of owners are brilliant, as well as stand up people. AAU is the real deal.

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  84. 1545.90

    I feel like i'm on the 'price is right'

    :-)

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  85. Today 1558.39
    Friday 1572.50 close

    Everytime I get out...They pull me back in...

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  86. $1575.23 - combined. Luck to you all and may God bless us in this time of transition.

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  87. FOMC Minutes released at 12:30 Est today correct? If so, would make for an opportune time for Blythe to hammer into the close no? (The crimex close is @ 12:25 EST).

    Is this when to buy the dip for today? Just throwing it out there.
    (I don't think his speech will do anything, the minutes will show us all we need to know).

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  88. Karzai Told to Dump U.S.
    Pakistan Urges Afghanistan to Ally With Islamabad, Beijing

    BY MATTHEW ROSENBERG

    Pakistan is lobbying Afghanistan's president against building a long-term strategic partnership with the U.S., urging him instead to look to Pakistan—and its Chinese ally—for help in striking a peace deal with the Taliban and rebuilding the economy, Afghan officials say.

    The pitch was made at an April 16 meeting in Kabul by Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, who bluntly told Afghan President Hamid Karzai that the Americans had failed them both, according to Afghans familiar with the meeting. Mr. Karzai should forget about allowing a long-term U.S. military presence in his country, Mr. Gilani said, according to the Afghans...
    (wsj.com)

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  89. xty

    by the time i factored in kickbacks from eBay and from my credit card, I figure I got my all-in cost down to about melt plus 1.6%, which I was extremely happy with. But then, I'm sort of an evil genius when it comes to eBay, so you might not get one that cheap. Though I've seen a couple others go by on Ebay with pricing not a lot higher. Nice thing about eBay is you can see a picture of it. Some of those coins look nicer than others. There's one right now that will expire today that looks pretty nice.

    At California Numismatics it looks like they are pricing them at melt plus 2%, with free shipping if the whole order goes over $2000. So toss in a Sovereign or a Franc and that would do it. That's the cheapest I've seen besides some eBay fluke. http://www.golddealer.com/


    the most common are the 1947's. They actually minted those for many years as restrikes, just putting 1947 on all of them. My understanding is that the only two dates that command any sort of premium are the 1931 and the 1921. Everything else pretty much the same.

    Actually, all I know about them I learned from this article, so read this first.

    http://www.cmi-gold-silver.com/mexican-gold-coin-50-pesos.html

    Gave the apple a good pruning last fall, and planning to spray a tad more this year so I'm hoping for a bumper crop. Not quite blooming yet, things are way way late this year for us. Should be spectacular within a few days though.

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  90. EE attack. Right on. Bring it!!! BTFD! FUBM!

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  91. 1557.17 FTIW not betting the Benank can make a lot of difference

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  92. Newbie
    Dont flame me when i get my hat.
    1543.78

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  93. "Apr 26. Jefferies maintains a 'Buy' on Coeur d Alene Mines (NYSE: CDE), PT (price target) increased from $42 to $44. Jefferies analyst says, "Coeur is poised to report very strong volume and margins, now that all three new, long life silver and gold mines are in production. We have raised our price target to $44 to reflect our new 2011-12 and long-term silver price estimates, and Coeur's strong production and free cash flow growth. Remains our top silver pick within our universe." "We believe silver prices will exceed $50 per ounce while averaging $38 per ounce during 2011 and $40/oz during 2012...We are now modeling silver prices of $38/ounce in 2011 and $40/oz in 2012 and gold prices of $1,400 in 2011-2012. We have also increased our long-term silver price estimate from $20/oz to $25/oz. We have therefore increased our 2011 earnings estimates to $3.30 (vs $2.30 earlier) and 2012 estimates to $3.50 (vs $2.40 earlier)."
    Shares of Coeur d Alene Mines closed at $30.85 yesterday, with a 52 week range of $13.96-$37.59." (from Schwab)

    Key points seem to be:
    1)Huge increase in projected earnings = low PE
    2)Higher average silver prices projected for 2011.
    3)Actual realization of a silver miner's potential.

    We need to see more substantive upgrades like this.

    Disclaimer: CDE is a very small position for me. GG is my largest holding followed by SLW & PAAS which lag currently.

    Good luck to all.
    Tom T.

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  94. combo >> $1573.20 Bernut fails

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  95. well, that's settled.

    now we must see the Bernank's birth certificate.

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  96. @David: Live Stream here!!!

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBlz5w22mK8

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  97. 1546,50

    next week friday 1575 :p

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  98. I put an AGQ bid in at 310, maybe the second leg down will catch it.

    I'm looking at a new strategy of "laddering" my AGQ buys, since I need to wait 3 days between a buy and sell (or the money is unavailable for a new buy). So I'll buy a little every day on dips, and then on run ups I'll sell a little of the "properly aged" earlier buys, instead of selling it all and having to wait to buy in again.

    Anyone use something like this? Any advice?

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  99. Syrian protesters gain anti-tank guns,
    Iranian officers direct Assad's troops

    April 27, 2011, 8:54 AM

    For the first time in the anti-Assad uprising, elements of Syria's popular protest movement are turning to armed revolt on lines similar to those marking the Libyan conflict. Wednesday, April 27, armed civilians were seen for the first time, some openly carrying anti-tank weapons, in the Daraa district of the South and Banias and Jableh on the coast, the primary targets of the regime's armored-backed offensive on the six-week old protest movement.

    Military sources report that these dissidents resorted openly to arms after discovering that Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) officers were masterminding the brutal crackdown against them, lending the Assad regime the experience they had gained in crushing the 2009 anti-regime opposition in Tehran.
    At the UN Security Council Tuesday night, US ambassador Susan Rice directly accused President Bashar Assad of mustering Iranian assistance to repress Syrian citizens "through the same brutal tactics that have been used by the Iranian regime."

    Our Washington sources report that the US, Britain, France and other European countries are not waiting for the Security Council to condemn Syria. As an American official put it, "in the near future," the US plans to...
    (debka.com)

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  100. xty

    That price at Gainesville looks awesome. If they ship to Canada, then that's for sure the cheapest for you.

    I'm about 50 comments behind right now. Just from scanning though, I can say NO, I'm not doing the spreadsheet. And on CZN...well, I told you so, but it brings me no joy.

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  101. I almost coughed soda out my nose this a.m. listening to FOX news in the car. NO mention of anything on the economy... at the end saying..."Fair and Balanced"
    oh and $1565.17 is my guess

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