Monday, April 18, 2011

The Return of The Whiteout

Long-time Turdites will recall that I've had to do this before. If you take a moment to review this post, you'll see that it worked out pretty well:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/02/getting-into-white-out.html

Crazy, volatile days can really leave you scratching your head when it comes to basic charting. You start seeing ghosts and patterns that aren't really there. So, after a day like today, I felt it necessary to once again break out Mrs. F's white-out in an attempt to see a trade-conducive pattern in a sea of Cartel-induced opacity.
Look what I found!!!
This silver chart is a beauty, ain't it? Another, day-long Comex and Globex rally after a nightlong slide in Asia and Europe. This has become such a predictable day trade that it  makes me wonder...
I remember seeing something a few months back about the Bank Participation Report and how it seemed that The Cartel were moving their price-capping efforts offshore. Fearful that their stooges at the CFTC would eventually have to act to impose position limits, the thought was that the EE was shifting their heavy shorting to non-US entities that wouldn't be subject to the limits. Just something to consider.

Back to the business at hand. Note that once we remove this morning's craziness, we're left with a pretty strong-looking chart. Silver peaked at 43.40 overnight and then bottomed this morning at 42.20. As I type, its trading on the Globex at 43.42. The more time we spend at 43.35 and above, the more likely it is that we will see continued strength this evening and a big UP day tomorrow at The Death Star.

Equally compelling is the gold chart with the craziness removed. Check this out:
After nearly reaching $1490 overnight, gold also rolled over and bottomed right at support of 1480. From there it has catapulted higher and now rests just below $1500 at $1496.70. Expect some tough sledding around $1500 as its kind of a self-fulfilling resistance area. Everyone is watching for resistance there. Some will take action and sell. Others will see this selling, assume that the resistance is appearing and gold will drop some more. Latecomers/hangers-on see price dropping toward 1495 and think "oh, crap, I knew I should have sold 1500" and down it goes further. The good news is: demand for gold is so great that $1500 will give way soon, regardless of the action tonight and/or tomorrow. On the flip side, silver may be so strong tomorrow and Wednesday that it may drag gold clear through $1500 without resistance and money will come flooding in from sideline dipshits who were waiting for $1500 weakness to give them a lower entry point. We could get to Santa's next "angel" very quickly.

OK, that's it for now. I'll update this evening if I feel I have something worthy of your time and attention.
TF


7:45 am EDT UPDATE:

Thought I should re-post this chart of the POSX from yesterday. The excrement made it to almost exactly 76 before reversing and heading lower. This is, quite obviously, helping our PMs.
As mentioned above, watch the action around $1500 in gold very closely. It will interesting. IF silver can maintain its footing above 43.40 and make a run at yesterday's high of 43.57, look out!

I'll have a full, complete update for you by around 10:30 EDT. Sorry for the delay. Hopefully, we'll have lots of fun, happy things to discuss...TF

317 comments:

  1. And the USD is up during all of this? Madness.

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  2. Turd + all,

    When talking about 'demand', do we look at delivery? Or just futures? I've read how there is basically NO ONE REALLY taking delivery on GOLD, unless someone can validate or provide legit facts. They are saying how everyone is just gouging the futures.

    Now I dunno how it works, but would appreciate if someone can clear the air. High prices doesn't mean a take of delivery is necessary right? I guess if delivery is taken, then, it shows. But if it gets rolled over then what does it mean?

    Sorry I don't trade futures. Miners also not confirming.

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  3. Has anyone else had order problems with the US Mint on those America the Beautiful Quarters?

    They cancelled my order several days (and the spot price went up) saying my billing address was wrong, but everything checked out ok. Now they are saying need a couple days to see if a manager will approve my order... Has anyone else had a problem with them?

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  4. Now of only our miners would get their act together and quit trading as if silver is sub $30!

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  5. Meanwhile, all my miner options still got annihilated. I swear once they get back to breakeven, which they all ought to, for the most part, I'm liquidating and sticking strictly with SLV and GLD in my options account.

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  6. SLW actually performing inverse? Very Frustrating for gold and silver miners. Makes one want to simply own the commodity.

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  7. A question for those more knowledgable than I:
    Is there a chance that the miners are lagging because they shorted their own silver, trying to take advantage of what they thought were the highest prices, thinking that prices would fall? Is there a way of knowing which miners have sold silver they haven't recovered yet?

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  8. Miner stocks being inordinately low will just assist in making the future shortage of PMs more acute. Less capital = less new projects.

    Agree or disagree?

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  9. Carrying this forward for amusement purposes.

    Speaking of lottery ticket type miners.
    Just putting this out there.
    Anyone ever own a "crazy" amount of really cheap mining shares? You, know, fractionals or whatever.
    Just curious, I did once.
    No longer holding it but it was a very cool feeling.
    I'll let someone else start the game with their lottery picks.

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  10. When you trade, DO NOT argue the tape. Whatever the reason might be, there is a reason! WE know fundamentally SLW has performed well due to price of silver, but keep in mind that price pays, not artificial balance sheets and accounting reports.

    I don't know much which is why one must FULLY UNDERSTAND the FUTURES data of silver. IF IN DEED DELIVERY is being TAKEN, this signals REAL DEMAND. After all, it's just a metal. WHAT INDUSTRY is going to be hit by such a high metal price?

    Which END USER OF METAL is being hurt by this?

    This is what I'm trying to understand and find out.

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  11. Remember on Friday when people were (legitimately) asking what someone knew that was driving Silver higher..

    And for the most unsurprising news of the day, Reuters reports that the White House has admitted it knew about the S&P rating action on Friday. Which means that all the key bond buyers (or sellers are the case may be, Pimco), knew at roughly the same time what the key market catalyst on Monday would be

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/reason-geithners-weekend-media-whirlwind-tour-white-house-learned-about-sp-downgrade-friday

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  12. "U.S. companies have gotten into the act as well, notably with Norfolk Southern's (NSC) $250 million offering of 100-year debt in August. An ultralong Treasury bond "could appeal to the buyer of the longer duration corporates," Valeri said."

    http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/02/02/ready-for-100-year-treasury-bonds/

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  13. Nothing sticks to SI. I wonder what will happen when Bonds are not the de facto "safety" trade and PM's take take that role. Great day to see the PM's holding their own against lower crude and a lower equities. Still these raids tough.

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  14. I grumbled about the miners today but Trader Dan has done an excellent job explaining the Hedgies buy the commodity/future and sell the miner spread. Once the HUI and the XAU snap back we will be duly rewarded. When the stock mkt crashes will the miners be affected? Yea probably. Bottom line is that as the price of their product stays up the more money they make and ultimately that will show up in valuations. It the meantime it is just painfully fustrating.
    Hang tough BTFD

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  15. I'm posting my apology again as I put it in when the new thread had already started.

    I apologize re. the Dan Norcini reference. I thought I said where I got it from. The reason I edited it was because he had a piece in the middle where he talked about a misconception around an earlier article which was not relevant. Paul Bain chastised me for not providing a hyperlink. I don't know how to do that. I have more than 20years of experience with miners but I never learned to type except with two fingers.

    Glad Scott likes ORKO. I have a big position.
    I apologize again. Throw an oldie a bit of slack. In future I'll just post my own personal opinion.

    I'm a huge fan of Dan Norcini.

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  16. Turd - I feel like your tone / commentary is maybe even a little subdued all things considered. The way today played out feels extremely positive to me - I was expecting a little celebration tonight. On a big dollar bounce day, with the equity markets pulling way back and the monkeys out flying around, we rallied way back to end up making another day of nice gains. This could be a very big week!

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  17. So are you all holding your SLW positions?

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  18. Miners trade as the general market trades. Market down, miners down, and vice versa. You're better off in GLD, PSLV, SLV, the commodities and physical.

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  19. atlee- Been thinking about your comment earlier today that you have never seen anything like todays chart in silver... and it works for 5 min, 10 min, 30 min, etc- all are equally bizarre. Great observation, as usual.

    Just my 2 cents but frankly that thing (sans whiteout) looks like a convulsion in the marketplace. A portent of wild things to come. "Disorderly to the upside" is looking more and more likely.

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  20. So the White House has insider information and shares it with the primary dealers?!! WTF is this the epitomey of the law doesnt apply to us?
    Don't you feel like they just rub your face in it everyday?

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  21. @Finnegan

    Liquidating when you get back to even??? Clearly you are overinvested in mining options and need to cost average your purchases. Liquidating at even will just amplify your lost opportunity cost.

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  22. @Pining
    So now does the second half of that look like a crazy cup and handle with that tail trailing off at the end?

    I want a coffe cup that says disorderly to the upside. Count me in.

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  23. Some quarterly earnings coming from the miners in the next few weeks. That will help them.
    Be cautious about those proxy stocks (I won't name them). It is my opinion that they are at best derivatives and at worst... um... worse.

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  24. The WH inside leak fraud is bold and outrageous.

    Most corrupt admin in history, by far. When law and order break down, makes you fear for the country.

    One interesting thing today. Did anyone notice the drying up of revenues for Citicorp?

    Revenue dropped 22 percent, including a 29 percent drop in its fixed income trading revenue.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/18/us-citigroup-idUSTRE73H1L620110418?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&ca=vzw

    22% revenue drop - That's an enormous plunge. Two main reasons is my take - people no longer have the money to make Mortgage and Credit Card payments or are outright refusing! That's one way to kill the banks.

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  25. altee- LOL! With a big, smiling picture of Turd in his yellow hat. Interpreting that formation is beyond my chart-fu. All I can say is it looks like a smasmic convultion, and that should be telling us something.

    Remember the old days when we were congratulating each other for our AGQ calls back around 175-180? How quaint. 300 is going to look good in the rear-view mirror.

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  26. Pailin,

    If you're hanging around I hope you can address a question I have regarding XAG/USD. I started a paper account just to practice for a week before I put my $1k into it. Up over 25% but that's because of the swings. I have some troubles figuring this out and I remember you already touched upon it:

    If I put $1k, all on XAG/USD, what kind of a leverage can I take on expecting that silver moves up/down (down in this case) -6% in one day before I get wiped out? I'm trying to calculate the leverage at which if silver goes does down 6% I am still in the game with atleast $.01. What about the leverage on which I can take on, worst case scenario is the same (Silver dips 6%) and I want half of my money still in the game?

    I remember you posted something regarding this topic but I'm having trouble calculating it based on a $43.50 spot price

    If anyone else has a solution, please let me know. I would really appreciate it.

    Thanks

    Verificaiton word: supli

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  27. Uncommon,

    Been hanging on to my SLW since $8. Not about to give up on it now

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  28. Clap on! Clap off! The clapper! Xmas comes early with PM's. whitehouse/blackhouse? Forget the thieves.

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  29. @Moogle fishy ( Ok I felt silly writeing that)

    I dont know if you missed it, but the University at Austin TX I belive, has asked for the delivery of 1 billion in gold .

    with the possibility of copy cats to follow.

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  30. Walt,

    Concerning your question from the previous thread, I never think in terms of leverage ratios. I look at it like this, if you have $1000 in the account and you take 1000 oz position, you lose everything if it drops $1. If you take a 500 oz position, you lose everything if it drops $2, and so on. Just multiply the move in the the silver price times the number of ounces to figure your safety margin.

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  31. Hey Atlee, Pining or anyone

    I have done very well holding AGQ for long periods (months) on several occasions. I know, I know that is not what it is intended for but it sure worked. My conundrum is this: I have been spooked out of my position the last two months by talk of a COMEX default. What are your thoughts on this equity given the specter of default? Does one exit at the end of each month and re-enter when the coast is clear at the first of the next month?

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  32. This video expects silver to move higher in the event of a margin hike


    Margin requirements on silver useless

    http://maxkeiser.com/2011/04/18/margin-requirements-on-silver-useless/

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  33. I know it is easy to lose perspective on forums like this where everyone knows concepts like QE and Federal Reserve policy as commonplace discussion topics.

    Here is an interesting discussion from the "man in the street" as it pertains to them.

    http://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/gsxlx/i_just_paid_421_for_gas_the_fast_food_restaurant/

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  34. @Finnegan

    I came to the same conclusion and stopped making options plays on the miners. There are too many variables for my simple thought processes. But Robert Leroy Parker is also right, if your positions bounce back to break even, that means they are moving the right direction. I made that very mistake (selling as soon as the red ink disappears) on SVM once or twice and watched a lot more upside movement occur after I bailed out.

    That said, my take on miners now is "buy 'em and forget 'em". Let silver go to $200 and gold to $4000 and then sell off all the shares I have accumulated. Someone else said it earlier, the shorts are doing us a big favor by keeping the miners affordable in the near term.

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  35. I am completely out of PM mining stocks at the moment. I follow the daily MACD religiously and it seems to work like a charm with the miners. HL was behaving recently until the miner got trapped in Idaho on Friday I think it was. I have made money on SLW but the MACD right now is horrid. It doesn't matter to my why. I am only long DGP at the moment. Just my 2 cents. Mining stocks have been stinkers as of late so I just find another play. If/when the game changes then I will change with it. Here is a poem I wrote:

    Our MACD on Big Charts
    Hallowed by your crossing
    Your profits come,
    You will be done,
    In Stocks as well as Options.

    Give us this day our daily MACD
    and forgive us for betting on the lead horse,
    As we have also forgiven
    Those who so foolishly trade against us.
    Lead us not into the murky bowels,
    And deliver us from Blythe.

    Praise be to the MACD!

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  36. President Obama Releases His Tax Return
    The President and Mrs. Obama have released their 2010 tax return.

    The return shows that they earned $1,728,000, in 2010. Most of it came from book royalties, $1,568,273. The taxes paid by the President and Michelle were $453,770, a tax rate of 25%.

    http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2011/04/president-obama-releases-his-tax-return.html

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  37. The University of Texas who just asked for delivery of gold and will be stored in a vault in New York . I'm just wondering if its a new vault and if it might be owned by a small outfit with the initials of JPM. I dont know if there is anyway to tell.

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  38. @Art Vandelay:
    love the name, Costanza...

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  39. @F,

    Don't feel like that. EACH and EVERY MEANINGFUL POST here is helpful.

    I only ask because futures/stocks are just that, a valuation game, perhaps an engorged zero-sum game. They can keep pushing the contract to insurmmountable levels to the point of explosion. The last fools holding a SHORTS, needing to deliver to a rich ridden LONGS will get screwed? But if these LONGS are nothing but banks GOUGING up the public on this precious metal fiasco, then I am worried.

    SHORTS eventually provide BIDS for those LONGS that want to get out of delivery, and the cycle steam rolls into a rocket ship to the moon.

    But if DELIVERY is actually taking place, that really speaks a diff't tune.

    One cue is SLW grabbing profits from it SALES, but WHO BOUGHT from theM?

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  40. @pbfurn

    I just got the new prospectus in the mail and although they can and do use futures there are a number of other derivatives they use. Biggest seems to be forward contracts with Tungsenman (Goldman) on the other side. I guess it is a concern but not one that keeps me awake at night. I been holding long since august in a SEP/IRa and trading it almost daily in trading accounts.

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  41. @orion102

    I ordered 5 "US Mint on those America the Beautiful Quarters" sets a couple weeks ago. (One for each of my kids) They were shipped and received within a week.

    Thanks Turd and crew for the great content and commentary.

    Mello

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  42. So, at the end of a rather wild day, one of my calls is UP 128% in five days, the other UP 10% since this morning, and that was cash from a call that I closed out of FRI for a 76% gain in 7 days.

    I am not gloating, I just want those who wonder why anyone plays options, or is wondering if they should, to understand the why.

    And for those who only buy physical, no argument from me, if you have the capital with which to buy. I think I can gain ground faster with options and then buy the physical with the proceeds. Of course, it has to be available, but I am hoping that APMEX and GPL will always have some to sell.

    Anyway, here's looking for 45 by the end of the week.

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  43. "...sideline dipshits..."

    ROFLMFAO

    and my ass is HUGE!

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  44. I'm with RoCoach on the miners...

    I too am "stuck" with a few miners right now that I'm waiting for to "snap back" but I'd be happy for snap back to break even right now.

    Someday (which I realized last week), I'll learn to heed what Jim Rogers wrote and what I read...

    "If you think silver (or commodity "X") is going up, why do you want to try to figure out which stock is going to have a great management team where the CEO will never die, in a country that will never have a war or natural disaster... JUST BUY THE DAMN SILVER AND FORGET IT!"

    OK, I did take some liberty with the quote, but you get the idea. Rogers would say buy the physical or the future... or something dreived DIRECTLY from the atual commodity (like a true commodity ETF)... don't try to pick the "best" stock because you just might get "Bolivia'd" or "tsunami'd" or "earthquaked" or "Steve Jobs is sick'd" even if it was a GREAT company when you did the most awesome DD ever.

    Lots of people have said this including dumb me: buy miners as lottery tickets, not as a substitute for physical silver, a future or one of the true metal ETFs (not a miner ETF... that's "risk adjusted lottery").

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  45. Oh, and yes I will be feeding the Turd this week.

    Thanks, Turd!!!


    BTW, speaking of feeding, I mailed my tax returns today. I hope you all saw my post RE the fairtax and looked at the website. Don't dismiss it as as impossible objective. The income tax was created, it can be uncreated. It will take a very powerful grassroots campaign because basically every lobbyist in DC and every member of congress depends on the levers and perks in the present tax system. But it has to go. They don't need to pass ANY law to control people's actions in this country, they just amend the tax code! Think about that!!

    Your fault, Ginger, for encouraging me, but today is T-Day, after all.

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  46. lottery picks:

    yep, so far so good

    can't wait for the disorderly myself

    that's when the itty bitty entrance to the sector will get crowded and the lucky ones will shoot the moon

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  47. pbfurn...

    I'm in the same boat as atlee and after a lot of playing around last year, I've parked bunches on and off of AGQ and then used the handsome profits to buy other things. This is out of a regular account like atlee said. I also have a SEP where I just let AGQ and CEF (my "hedge" on AGQ) ride.

    But the bottom line is this: while it would make me puke really, really hard if my AGQ vanished tomorrow morning in a complete collapse of everything, I have my physical. The money I use for AGQ and the like is purely speculative to make "money" of of the run up to buy other, tangible things.

    If I were "forced" to be in paper only things like a 401K or IRA, did not want to cash those out, and wanted to be "conservative" relatively speaking, I guess I'd just be 100% CEF for a whole host of conservative reasons while still making good enough returns.

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  48. Yea but it is impossible to get long term gains treatment on AGQ because of the forwards et al. Long term gain on futures is impossible. So left with owning physical and miners. Ya I own physical. ZZZZZZZZZZZZ. Pls save the sermon on physical I said I already own it.

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  49. Art,

    So if I buy 750oz at $43, I will pay 750x$43=$32,250 (Leverage of 32.25:1) and consequently every $0.001 change (1 pip) will equal to $.75? If that calculation is correct then a position with leverage of 32.25:1 and balance of $1000 will need atleast $31.007 in the account before a margin call? If that's correct then I can afford to have the spot price decline to $43-$1.292 (3%)(approx)to $41.708?

    I know it's a lot to take in at once but Pailin mentioned something about using spreadsheets to calculate how many OZ's you can buy before a certain % in decline of spot takes you out due to a margin call. I wanted to know if my train of though is logical and if my above example is correct and how someone can go about that spreadsheet business. At some point i'd like to write a macro in Excel so it takes my current account balance, a predetermined % number by which in my opinion spot won't decline more then by and figure out how many Oz's I can buy "safely" assuming that spot won't decline by as more then the said %. There is several problems with a strategy like that such as the fact that if I spot drop by say 4.99% and my limit is 5% I have to make the choice of either selling or hoping it reverses. If I sell, I just lost almost all my capital, if I wait I'm playing with fire and will most likely get a margin call. With that said, I would adjust my original postion by still following this strategy but instead buy only half of the number of oz's I originally wanted to so in the example above, buy 375oz, be leverged 16.125:1 and cut my losses at when spot declines by the said % I assumed it won't get to. So if it declines $1.292 then I lose $484.5 but atleast I'm not out.

    Maybe I'm just overthinking...
    Any tips Pailin and anyone else?

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  50. I'm a holding onto all of my mining positions until we find out what happens to Martin Armstrong's June turning point event. It would make sense to me to see the miners trade sideways from here until June while the general stock market remains under pressure and volatile. I guess I'm betting the sell in May and go away trade is wrong this time, that makes me a this time IS different kind of guy, I know - risky bet. I'm all in with the family's IRA's with miners and PHYS, outside of the IRA's all savings, except 3 months emergency cash, is in physical gold(60%)/silver(40%).

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  51. Folks,

    TPTB no longer follow the rule of law. If you look at all the bailouts and Ponzi Fed actions the last three years, this is obvious.

    The Supreme court back in 2005 said it was all right for local governments to use eminent domain to seize private property and sell it to other PRIVATE interests. If that doesn't clue you in, NOTHING will. ALL property rights are up for grabs.

    In my opinion Irene was right, NO electronic account is safe; IRAs 401ks, annuities, brokerage accounts, etc. Congress discussed modifying 401ks last fall to make them more "safe" by investing in treasuries. I read the comments. People are rightfully upset.

    Keep some physical PMs OUTSIDE US jurisdiction.

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  52. Was that at me atlee?

    I'm with you... I have my solid base, beyond that, I'll take the "pain" of ST cap gains all day long on what I've made on AGQ and the like.

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  53. Re: SLV Options

    "Meanwhile, all my miner options still got annihilated. I swear once they get back to breakeven, which they all ought to, for the most part, I'm liquidating and sticking strictly with SLV and GLD in my options account."

    While I don't blame people for being upset about the miners, it is interesting to see the general psychology of investors. I understand your mindset, however at the same time realize that this is how greed can help perpetuate fraud.

    Unfortunately, the "easiest way to trade silver or gold" is by participating in their fraudulent vehicles. One day the people trading SLV and GLD will have a rude awakening when the market turns away from these fraudulent vehicles. However, this may be a while out, since it would probably imply financial systemic anarchy as I doubt the financial industry would be able to survive the exposure of their fraudulent ways.

    Not picking on anyone, especially Flennigan for his viewpoint, as I completely understand. However, makes you think :)

    @ R man J

    "Miner stocks being inordinately low will just assist in making the future shortage of PMs more acute. Less capital = less new projects."

    I definitely think about this and try to use this as justification why miners cannot be kept at these levels. Eventually, I feel that the physical demand will pressure the market so strongly, that miners enter a "euphoria" stage of mass buying. The longer they stay down, the greater the opportunity exists for those who are patient. It seems like it could be right around the corner... but then again, who knows what lies for the future behind the now. Everything is really just an educated guess.

    Thanks for pointing this out, definitely think this is a major part of why mining stocks will value so strongly *sometime* in the future.

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  54. Hey Torx, just a follow up on the Kelo Supreme Court eminent domain ruling that will make people even sicker...

    The land has yet to be developed... nothing but high grass. We had that little housing bubble thing and now it's just empty land. Some of the people moved out are talking about suing to now get their land back.

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  55. My only 2 miners up today are RVMID and ... wait for it... TRE?!?!?!? WTF?

    On another note, HL reports Q1 earnings on Apr 25, and that should offer guidance for the other silver miners (think the litigation and the mining accident are already factored in). SLW earnings is first week of May - I think, but its big move (up or down) is most likely going to be after HL reports.

    For the miner's sake and for his family, let's all hope he is safely rescued.

    MHT

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  56. Uncommon Cents
    I'm holding onto my SLW. Most purchased at $24. I'm another one of those boring buy mostly physical and hold ag stocks in our IRA's (cuz when I try to sell and buy, it's just a disaster!). I do think we will eat the penalties this year and cash out altogether from our IRAs though.

    Apples and Eric
    Yes, I agree. Confiscation, socialism, etc. need never be literal. Much easier to do it through the tax system. Windfall profits tax, redistribution of income via taxes, etc.

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  57. Some bad news for Aurcana. Thoughts on this news? I'll have to reconsider my position perhaps.

    Lawsuit with Sprott

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  58. Been here since day one. Ok maybe day two..
    I have learned alot and I am greatful for all the great interactions and must say that the Turd is a class act! Thanks for maintaing this site! My first post relates to the questions I read on the previous thread about taxing the rich. A Bill Widdle video I saw recently had more impact on me, and others I have shared it with, than anything I have seen. It talks about how much it would take to fund the Obama budget for one year. I would be amazed if this has not been posted here before. If so I apologize. Anyway here is the link http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=661pi6K-8WQ

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  59. Scott
    Did you try the guided relaxation youtube vid I posted the other night?

    Hope you're less stressed out. Here it is again if you missed it. It's less than 10 minutes and well worth it.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SwmCwYPGXlA

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  60. haven't read the whole thread but I think Turd was hinting at a possible reason for miner underperformance. The big criminal banks are shorting them in off shore accounts since they are being watched too closely in N.Y. to short the bullion as heavily as they previously did. This makes sense. These people are full on sociopaths. The White House KNEW on Friday about the S&P stuff today. How stupid are people to beleive that with that kind of information they would act constrained. The entire facist structure is not only Ponzi but conspiratorial. It is a price-rigged Market. This is why we buy bullion remember? Just some thoughts. What I fear is a big May sell off in the price-propped Equity markets which would torch the miners. Anyway, just my opinion. I don't doubt at all that Blythe has moved her operation to the Caymans and in the evenings is busy getting drunk and chasing lesbian hookers all over the Islands.

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  61. It would seem Aurcana is wise to try to get out of that deal, but I wonder the effect of a lawsuit with a major player. Here is a more thorough link regarding the news.

    Link

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  62. My humble option on miners:

    When they pay a decent dividend the price Per share will rise. Till then it's the "bigger fool" game.

    As for leverage: very dangerous. Sinclair says don't do it. I should disagree with him?

    Betting on the metals is risky enough without compounding it with non dividend paying miners.

    The metals have been good, but remember, it is a bet, as is staying in a particular currency or commodity.

    Be well, all.

    ReplyDelete
  63. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/newcrest-mining-quarterly-gold-production-down-16-2011-04-18?link=MW_story_latest_news

    SYDNEY (MarketWatch) -- Gold miner Newcrest Mining Ltd. AU:NCM -0.44% NCMGF +0.92% said Tuesday that gold production declined 16% to 604,791 ounces in the three months to March 31. Weather and political unrest hit gold feed grades and mill throughput in the quarter, the firm said. Lower gold production resulted in higher cash costs, which reached A$497 per ounce compared to A$440 per ounce in the previous quarter. Copper production increased 13% to 20,098 tonnes. The firm changed its full year gold production guidance to 2.82 million ounces, plus or minus 35,000 ounces. It was previously expecting to produce between 2.85 million ounces and 2.95 million ounces. Copper production guidance remains in a range of 75 thousand tonnes to 80 thousand tonnes and cost guidance is unchanged

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  64. Damn, Aurcana had a lot going for it too. I jumped in and out of that one 2-3 times over the past few months and made money on it, been watching it fall off on my watch list and now I know why. Hope they get their shit together and sort this mess out. Great management and resources behind that one, sucks they have some legal issues to deal with. Thanks for sharing that tid-bit of info, explains why they had an exceptionally worse day than most other miners today.

    ReplyDelete
  65. orion102 I had the same problem with them. They want your shipping address and your credit card billing address to match. Took them two days to tell me that so they were sold out of what I wanted. Lame.

    ReplyDelete
  66. @Irene (from last post)
    You are my new hero. What the IRS just did to me and the wife is a crime against humanity. I wouldn't put anything past these people. I will be cashing out the kids college money and an ira account so the bastards can't touch it.

    word verification: silverto46byFriday
    That was kinda weird.

    ReplyDelete
  67. pbfurn- Sorry this is late, had to step away for dinner (I know, I know- why eat when this board should be our only subsistance).

    My own 2-cents is that your concerns of a default are well-founded, and really nobody knows all that will happen in that instance. For this reason, I practice my own strange form of "trading discipline": without fail, I take profits and buy physical, at least every two months, and sometimes sooner. My own philosophy is that, despite what your computer screen says, it isn't REALLY a "realized gain" until you can hold it in your hand.

    I have been fortunate to have ridden the AGQ train long enough that I still have my original trading amount, but now I have an equal dollar amount of physical in my possession generated through my profits in this manner, so if default happens I am covered even if paper is worthless. From here on out, its all gravy.

    There are many ways to trade and play this, however, this is just my own strategy. Good trading!

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  68. @Justin

    Aurcana certainly has outstanding potential, but this issue along with their overly diluted share issuance has me thinking of closing out. I've been in this one from early on so I can easily hold it, but perhaps there will be a better opportunity to reacquire the stock closer to the opening of the shafter mine in 2012.

    I know there was one reader here who was dedicating 40% of their portfolio to Aurcana. Whoever that was, any thoughts? Any corporate lawyers with some insight? I suppose its possible this could be a good thing in the long run.

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  69. OK... let's back up to the 10,000 mile view for a moment.

    We all know of the games to control the price of physical by the Crimex, Banksters and Fed.

    Why does it come as a surprise that the minors are being shorted as well.

    http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/04/hedge-fund-ratio-spread-trades-continue.html

    The Great Game as I see it is to own physical. If I had billions...I would own as much as I could get my hands on ...vault it privately (read out of sight completely from the banksters too). At the same time I would load up on weakness taking in mining shares and hedge books of any minor that sold me their future production.

    The future of the modern banking system is not hard to see.

    When the dust all settles...he/she who has the gold will make the rules.

    Buy physical
    Buy Minors
    Hold tightly
    WAIT

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  70. @Atlee and Fortinbras

    Thank you very much! Your input is very useful. I genuinely appreciate the time and thought you devoted to my inquiry. The gains I have had on AGQ become a bit addictive. I am largely playing with the gains I have made as I cashed out my original investment but I loathe losing a nickel! Thank you, again, for your time and insight. Best of good fortune to both of you.

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  71. Here's an important question. What is the best way to keep physical bullion outside of U.S. jurisdiction. I don't trust these thugs anymore than any intelligent,God-fearing person.

    Are we talking bullionvault.com and GoldMoney? Or would they find some scheme to interrupt that service and either tax it heavily or whatever? Bullionvault has no silver vault in Zurich and last I looked the Anglo's in the City of London fece are a major part of the problem. Who would want to try storing silver there?

    And otherwise it seems traveling to Europe, opening an account in Switz. and then buying real physical for deposit in a storage vault would be the only way to go. What exactly are we talking about here? Anybody?

    ReplyDelete
  72. @Fort

    No not at all. Not directed at anyone. I just didnt want someone to school me again on the wonderful benefits of physical. I agree own as much physical as you can stash.

    ReplyDelete
  73. @Atlee,

    You said "Yea but it is impossible to get long term gains treatment on AGQ because of the forwards et al."

    If a person held the ETF for the long term capital gain period, wouldn't that person be elegible for the long term capital gain despite the short term nature of AGQ's investments?

    Thanks

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  74. @ Vernon W

    I'm so sorry, but nothing seems low enough these days, does it? My husband is going through a situation right now that even 5 or 10 years ago I never would have believed possible. I don't know what is happening to our social institutions, our social makeup and plain human decency.

    Find friends to support you, do not let this affect your health any more than possible and plan anew knowing that you must protect your loved ones as best you can within the confines of the law. Learn and grow. Our world is falling apart and we will have to rebuild one day. It will be good to know what to avoid and what to improve.

    ReplyDelete
  75. I got three miners in the green today:
    NEM: +0.21%
    XG: +2.74%
    MFN: +0.71%
    But I'm way in the red overall.

    Here's an idea:
    With the miners so cheap, JPM can just buy up some mining companies to hedge their silver shorts.

    ReplyDelete
  76. Re: Pining to pbfurn...

    Pining, I do/have done the same exact thing, but rather than continuing to buy more physical, I've bought and and am in the process of outfitting land, but I see that as the same as "physical" because it's in something tangible.

    I only do this because I am happy with my physical base and want to "diversify" into other things physical.

    ReplyDelete
  77. @ Torx1953
    No. When you put your orders in your brokerage should have a screen that pops up warning of the tax consequences of some ETFs. This is one of them. YOu can not get LT gains on some of the derivatives they use. In addition if you hold an open position through year end it is marked to the market so you pay taxes on gains you have not and may not realize.

    ReplyDelete
  78. Atlee...

    Got it... for a minute there, I thought, "How could I have been so wrong about this douche bag?!?!?!" ;)

    ReplyDelete
  79. @ FORT

    LOL I am an asshole but not a douche bag.

    ReplyDelete
  80. To all those getting anxious about their mining stocks and worrying that they will get hit "if the market crashes", please remember that market crashes do not happen anymore. The Plunge Protection Team will not allow it. Yes, the market may sell off over time, but that's why you have trailing stops in place, to limit your losses.

    With Bernanke being a key member of the PPT, and his only success being forcing the equity market up, do you think he'll let it collapse? Please listen to James Grant's interview with Eric King, where he describes Bernanke as now "owning" the stock market's performance.

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  81. Your core position should ALWAYS be physical. That is where to start. The miners are just paper representations and claims of potential silver.

    The metal in your hand is just that, pure and simple. The equities are reliant on a bunch of people you don't know trying to dig the metals out of the ground somewhere with high overhead in a place you have likely never been to. Then there are the hedge fund/bankster antics to deal with.

    @Moogle fishy (and almost everybody else):

    About the end users: Most of them use such small amounts of the metal in their products (0.01g, or less) that they can afford much higher prices without a major impact on their bottom line. I read an article a couple of years ago that stated that the amount used in most products is so miniscule that even if the price of silver was the same as gold, there would be no material difference in the price of the product. Furthermore, there is no cost effective way to recover the silver when it is at such low prices. Heck, even gold used in electronics is not generally recovered at current prices - think about that one for a minute. However, they cannot do without silver when manufacturing the products which makes it a necessary ingredient at ANY price. Research Silver's uses and you will find that it is probably the best investment out there (even at multiples of current prices) if we are not flung back into the stone ages sometime soon.

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  82. @ rthaler71

    I use BV, holding gold in Zurich and silver in London. It is easy to switch between the 3 vaults, so, for example, you can sell gold in Zurich and use the proceeds to buy allocated and numbered silver in London. Yes, if you go to withdraw the silver in London there is 20% VAT to pay, but you could just cash out the silver, buy gold in Zurich and go to Zurich and pick up your physical if you wanted to (subject to minimums which I don't remember) and not pay any VAT. If you sell pms and repatriot the $$$, then, of course you will be paying taxes on them but you know what they say about death and taxes.

    BV has problems, but every system has problems. Do I trust the Swiss, probably more than others.

    Besides which, my apartment is too tiny and located in NYC so not a great place to store more than a small amount of pms.

    There's always convenience vs. risk involved and everybody has to find what works for them. At least for now, BV works for me.

    ReplyDelete
  83. A couple possibilities for Americans to consider are:

    Central Fund (vaults gold and silver 70/30) in Toronto (I believe it trades in both Canada and USA)

    An Alternative ETF to GDXJ is a new Canadian one containing GOLD juniors>>> ZJG.TO
    85% are Canadian, 15% are American
    It ONLY trades in Canadian Dollars>>> a nice currency hedge too.

    http://www.etfs.bmo.com/bmo-etfs/holdings?fundId=75750

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  84. Fort- You are my brother from another mother. All sorts of things qualify as 'physical', including my now 3 year old fruit trees and new chickens! Hedge everything you can, in every area of life.

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  85. @Scottj88 said...One day the people trading SLV and GLD will have a rude awakening when the market turns away from these fraudulent vehicles....

    That day has already passed
    Investors distrust SLV

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  86. Uncommon.... Yep holding my SLW calls. No reason not to IMO.

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  87. @rthaler71

    I own shares of CEF. I know, the PMs belongs to the fund, but I just don't trust bullionvault or goldmoney. Chris Martenson uses bullionvault.com and he is financially very savvy, so I might put some money there.

    Canada would have to agree with the conversion of PM to fiat in their country on behalf of another country. I'm thinking international relations (and Canada's reputation) outweigh the small value to be gained.

    Diversifying the location of your assets is probably the key. Doug Casey moved to Argentina, Jim Rogers moved to Singapore (I think). The average American is stuck with what we can afford to do and hope for the best.

    Taxation is another story, confiscatory rates may apply.

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  88. Once again more wiseness from the ScottJ88. My brain tells me some one/thing is herding you all to "break even", operative word being break. Too many want it all and want it now. This is how the game is played 4 quarters, 13 rounds,26 miles, you need to be standing at the final bell to have a chance of winning. What you thought this was going to be easy, Turd drops a little knowledge, you throw down some cash, bang zoom your Carlos Slim?
    This is real life and death we are at war for our way of life our families our country our world. If you don't understand this and face it you will not make it.The pain is just beginning. I for one don't want to be on a freakin bread line knowing I once rode with the knights but could not handle. I don't want the Scottj's and others to look at me and say what happened, you were right behind me. I gotta stand cause if I don't the Scotts of the world will never get a chance to correct our f#$k ups.
    Hell guys like him Turd and others are doing the heavy lifting, all we gotta do is check the math make sure it works for each of us personally and stand strong. Like we used to say in da hood "if you scared go to church".
    ONIPA'A

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  89. For those talking about owning physical outside the US...

    Are you not watching what the DOJ/IRS are now doing to people who banked off shore?

    I'm not saying "don't buy overseas," but unless you can do so COMPLETELY anonymously (and I doubt that 98% of the population knows how or could afford to do this), you are kidding yourself.

    I hold all of my property beyond anonymously and it is difficult and costs money to do so. It is perfectly legal and the only way the governemnt could find out that I own it right now we be to legally compel (not merely request)several parties to divulge information.

    However, do I think that could change tomorrow afternoon and thus remove practically all of that anonymity? YOU BET.

    Also, unless you are talking about holding more than say $1M USD in PMs overseas, what aare you going to do? But a $3,000 plane ticket to fly to Switzerland to cash out your $125,000 in PMs (or whatever the amount) and live happily ever after?

    Keep it simple people. I might be way off base here and if I am, someone please educate me on how if the US governemnt does something here to threaten your PMs, you somehow don't think they'll tell Switzerland "divulge all US citizens holding gold NOW or we screw you the best we can!"?

    We just watched this play out LAST YEAR with off shore banking.

    Again, clue me in if I'm wrong. At least if you kept it in Canada, MAYBE you could move there and start over... MAYBE.

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  90. Torx...

    I agree with you and just posted the same about holding metal overseas.

    And yes, Rogers is in Singapore. Still a US citizen, still has a house here, still pays taxes and loves America... but lives in Singapore. Thought it would be the best place to raise his daughters.

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  91. I just read something pretty eye opening about "Chaostan" and the U.S. empire.

    Anybody else know about this concept and a guy named Richard Maybury?

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  92. Walt,

    I'm not sure about your example because I'm not used to doing it that way. I will say this though, don't forget about any spread and interest your forex company might charge. Ip ut $10,000 in a forex account and never go over 1000 oz. just to be safe. I want to avoid ever coming even close to being wiped out by a sudden drop in the price.

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  93. @Haze

    Yes, Mr. Maybury has been around for a long time and before anybody could even find that area on a map, he was sounding alarms about it. He may be a stopped clock but he sure appears sagacious presently.

    ReplyDelete
  94. Everyone needs to read this.
    This will unnerve you and get you thinking.
    You won't regret it.


    http://britanniaradio.blogspot.com/2011/04/dear-daily-crux-reader-this-week-we.html

    ReplyDelete
  95. pbfurn...It's so obvious yet we don't really think of it in those terms.
    Obama/U.S. fired the President of Egypt?
    So obvious but it seems like "C'mon, fired Mubarek?"
    Yep, pretty much.

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  96. Looks like the Globex trading session this evening might get ugly. Silver is slowly getting whacked - a piece here - a piece there.

    Kumanari - my friend it is like you reached inside my skull and scooped out my thoughts. Two years ago my family had a major wake up call. My daughter (then 4 years old) was diagnosed with a very rare metabolic disorder called OTC deffeciency.

    It almost killed her and we spent a fair bit of time in Children's Hospital. My wife and I were both working for other people - her as a public employee and me for a large company as a buyer/importer and sales manager. I was helping to make our company huge gains annually in sales, expanding profit margins yearly and watching the bottom line grow by millions. I was also watching what I believed the ownership of that company squander it all (IMHO).

    I woke up. I realized that if I did not take care of business - if i was not pulling the reigns that it was my kid that would suffer in the long run. In the middle of the crash of 08 we started a new business with the help of my new partners and have not looked back. I started investing in PM's shortly after because I felt the writing was on the wall. I did not want to be standing in the bread lines either. More importantly - I didn't want to be standing over my daughters grave because I couldn't afford the medication to keep her healthy once the system completely goes for shit.

    Someone posted a link earlier to a board for the man on the street. It was a good motivator. I am long metal and will stay that way until either the SHTF or life goes back to some semblance of normal. For what its worth at this point I'm not holding a lot of faith in the latter.

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  97. @R.L.P.
    The Shafter mine is the one of the main things that attracted me to Aurcana, but at the same time it feels like that mine brings with it some bad luck and stigma due to the Hunt Brothers and their story with it. When I sold Aurcana the last time I held, I traded for Tinka and I made a pretty penny off that trade after the small loss in Aurcana the 3rd time I had a go at it. Once Aurcana gets their situation figured out I hope to buy in near the bottom and hold for the long run.

    The stories behind some of these miners is what makes this game so much fun, more like a hobby/history lesson while trying to fatten the portfolio. I just wish the miners would detach from the regular market and start trading as if they were worth the resources they dig out of the ground vice just being viewed as another stock by sheepish investors. Until then, the David vs Goliath small cap miners truly will remain "lottery tickets" as others have mentioned recently and I still prefer the Davids. Staying 50% physical and 50% miners helps ease the pain of days like today. Their time to shine will come eventually, patience and DD is the name of the game until then. :)

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  98. @ DarkPurpleHaze

    Richard Maybury has a newsletter called Early Warning Report and a web site www.richardmaybury.com. He coined the word "Chaostan" referring to the parts of the world that are lands of chaos many years ago.

    ReplyDelete
  99. Fortinbras said "Keep it simple people. I might be way off base here and if I am, someone please educate me on how if the US governemnt does something here to threaten your PMs, you somehow don't think they'll tell Switzerland "divulge all US citizens holding gold NOW or we screw you the best we can!"?
    -------------------------------------------

    Agree. But, I am not wealthy, and everything I have overseas is REPORTED to the IRS, unlike those Swiss accounts.

    Like Gerald Celente says "When people lose everything...they lose it." I doubt TPTB want to find out where that breaking point is. I believe outright confiscation without compensation is WAY beyond that point. Even the Kelo's were PAID for the land taken from them.

    I'm just counting on the small amount I have outside the US not rising to the level of being "worth" going after. There are risks in everything we do. I'm just spreading my risks.

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  100. Orion - "Has anyone else had order problems with the US Mint on those America the Beautiful Quarters?"

    I received mine with no problems at all. I only ordered a couple to give as gifts. I wish I had gotten a few for me. :)

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  101. @ Darth Smoker

    Interesting chart, I have noticed PSLV going wild lately. Maybe something is up indeed, as the divergence between PSLV and SLV will be game changing. Thank you for this chart, definitely something to note and bookmarked this comparison. Definitely one to keep an eye on, appreciate the link.

    @ Kumanari

    You are too much (in a good way), and constantly make me smile when I read your contributions. You give me too much credit, and I feel I must put a disclaimer that I am by no means a "seasoned expert," and am trying to figure this out alongside all of you day by day... I just started looking into miners 6 months ago, let alone investing in general. I always try to share my thoughts with purity, but just be careful about following anyone's advice, no matter how good it seems. The philosophy is what we should be examining into, not the person. I am sure you know this, but just wanted to make this point.

    With that said, it really seems miners can't stay like this forever. R man J really hit the nail on the head about less capital for miners = less physical production = double edged sword for the gods of the copyright headings....

    @ Irene

    Yes thanks for the video. I took the time to watch it, and found that she was very soothing and simplistic. Controlling your own emotions and mind definitely is the biggest struggle that most people (including myself) struggle with. Luckily, being aware of this inner-battle is a huge step towards finding peace within yourself. What she is really preaching is just being aware of everything, by focusing on one thing at a time.

    Seems like awareness is the answer...
    ---

    "If ignorance was bliss, then it would be a fool to be wise." -- Anonymous

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  102. I think it's fair to say the speculative position in SLV went up considerably today. Wow, the volume. Wow, the call options.

    Doesn't mean it's over, but speculative interest doesn't have the conviction of a Turd follower. I expect volatility will start to get a lot more pronounced over the next few weeks.

    Might be a good idea to buy some July puts on the SPY, just as a little hedge against short-term SHTF.

    No need to panic and sell off the good stuff.

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  103. martin armstrongs new missive indicates to me that when the rule of law screws the people and enchances elite corruption there is a distrust in paper assets...Could this be a reason for the miners lagging?

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  104. Bob Rood...I don't think that's the reason. I think they are just being shorted heavily.
    We will see what you mention in SLV and GLD etc. when the COMEX ruptures at some point.

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  105. Probably the sentiment that when overpriced stocks crash, it weighs down the underpriced stocks.

    ReplyDelete
  106. Greetings to all of you guys, commenting or just reading Turd's blog, and of course to you Turd! Thanks for all you do!

    @ averagejoe and the others sharing information on XAG/USD trading - very helpful. It is still plenty unclear to me, but I will start with the forex school site averagejoe posted in the last or second to last tread.

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  107. coupla things:

    1- the martin armstrong guy everyone is talking about- is it the same guy that was prisoned for about a decade for running a ponzi scheme?

    2- this is a question no one can truly answer but maybe most important one...how allocated is everyone to silver and gold? i am still only 10-15% silver and gold physical and 15% miners/etfs...not really sure how much more i want to go from an allocation standpoint.

    are there others out there with larger allocations and do u feel comfortable with it? is there a limit you guys would go with this or are most of the people on here at 50%+...those of you with higher amounts, were u shaken out several times or r u able to hold on?

    i know this isn't something alot of people want to share but any general guidelines or tips (particularly related to combination of how much is allocated and how this affects ur psychology as a trader/investor) would be encouraging.

    3- just something from my value investing reading- the books often say it can take up to 3 years for the price of an equity to go to its true intrinsic value. i doubt it will take that long to get there here for the pm miners but something to keep in mind, it can take a long time. also, one thing i learned personally, is that although i like the idea of buying 20 miners and sitting on them like lottery tickets, i don't have the time to do a very detailed analysis on most of them. i feel like out of 20 miners or so i have owned in past 12 months, about 5 or 6 have been hit with some crap knocking down their values and i have been blind-sided everytime...no more for me, i am going to gdx, gdxj, or sil only in terms of miners and slw or sndxf for silver (i'm less concerned about streamers). i'm ok with underperformance in the long run but i don't like the extreme variability of the mining business.

    also since it is often discussed, has anyone done a short interest analysis of the miners and compared it to 12 months ago? that might help out

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  108. Short/long term capital gains, IRS gestapo, Vernon Wormer horror stories, SS withholding, self-employment tax, 12 page tax returns, 75,000 page tax codes

    Wouldn't you like to be rid of ALL THAT CRAP? AND make the USA the most attractive place on earth to base a business??

    (I'll stop tonight, I promise.)

    http://www.fairtax.org/site/PageServer

    Check it out and then insist it be an issue in the coming election!!

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  109. Damn this spread between what PSLV and SLV did was awesome today. Hell, PSLV kicked the shit out of AGQ.

    This is amazingly great trading... PMs market is about to erupt upward.

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  110. The Mayberry guy lost me right at the beginning when he said: "If you look at any previous empires I write about all time – the French Empire, the British Empire, the Russian Empire – these countries are all much better places today than they were when they had empires." Britain today is a crappy place. The people are lazy drunken slobs who have zero pride in themselves and their country. They have a burgeoning Islamic problem. Only an uneducated fool would state so categorically that Britain is better today than when it ruled most of the world.

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  111. sp--
    I seriously doubt Martin Armstrong ran a ponzi scheme. He is respected by people that I respect. Falsely accused in my opinion.

    Silver 35%; gold 20%; miners/energy stocks 12%
    rest is cash

    I'll go out on a limb: SILVER WILL HAVE ITS LARGEST EVER ONE DAY RISE, OVER $3 on 4/20/2011.

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  112. DarkPurple

    I've been getting Richard Maybury's "Early Warning Report" for years. Highly recommended.

    ReplyDelete
  113. Orion, I just saw an update. The US mint suspended sales of the silver proof ATB quarters today due to the price of silver. They'll probably be offline for at least a few weeks as it takes a lot of red tape to change the price of those. The other silver proof set is also suspended, btw.

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  114. OldNavy,
    I am solidly in your corner on the tax issues. I just wish our politicians (heck..even more citizens) could see it. ..The article that DarkPurpleHaze linked (Maybury) is just a must read in part because it/he addresses the corrupt quagmire of political power that our government has become. The powers that be won't give up willingly the taxation hold they have over the populace because it keeps them in power and keeps their power ever expanding. As Maybury says.. it's the power they crave. It would be so great if someone...anyone...in power right now could somehow break out of the lure of power and all of its trappings and actually do what is right for the American people ..but I guess that isn't going to happen. Not likely anyway.

    The pathetic part is....and these fools don't even know it...that the power hungry in Washington are going to lose power anyway. But it is going to come about in a much more painful way for the country after a collapse of the system than if they would just do it now as part of a thought out and well planned revamping of the tax, political, economic, etc. structure.

    Pity the nation if they won't see the light soon.

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  115. Au and Ag seem to have dozed off for the time being. They're kinda looking at each other.

    Go Habs!

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  116. sp

    What would you think the appropriate term would be for contempt of court? Try SEVEN YEARS in Armstrong's case. Then he pled guilty hoping for time served, NOPE! sentenced to five MORE years.

    I don't know if he was guilty or not of what he was charged with. I sense an arrogance in his writings which probably pissed the judge off. But SEVEN YEARS with NO TRIAL is extreme for contempt of court.

    Anyway, here is a blurb about that:
    ----------------------------------------

    Martin Armstrong, author of the Economic Confidence Model based on an 8.6 year business cycle theory inspired by the work of Nikolai Kondratieff.

    Armstrong was released from Federal Prison in March 2011, and he is currently preparing an appeal to his criminal case. Indicted in 1999 on charges of defrauding Japanese investors. He was in jail for seven years for contempt of court before pleading guilty in 2007 to the fraud charge for which he received an additional five year prison term. Armstrong claims his legal problems started when he failed to play ball with "The Club". His imprisonment is one of the longest under a contempt of court order without a trial. Coincidentally, prior to his guilty plea, his final appeal for release (relating to indefinite imprisonment for contempt of court) was denied by (recently promoted) U.S. Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor.
    -------------------------------
    You can read writings here:

    http://www.martinarmstrong.org/economic_projections.htm

    ReplyDelete
  117. I just need to know one thing - how long before the stock market crashes?

    Days, weeks, or months?

    Someone please answer this.

    ReplyDelete
  118. @ Torx1953 and Fortinbras

    Well, every last cent of our money sent to Switzerland was declared when income taxes were originally paid on it. Only then did it leave the country. Should we cash out, the money must return to our US bank accounts and is therefore taxable. If we pick up the physical, well, that's another kettle of fish and we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.

    But maybe we'll spread our pms around - some to Canada, etc. If my sister goes to Australia, she'll have some there too.

    Nobody know what's going to happen. We all prepare the best we can. We could well be abroad when the SHTF. Then would I come back to the US to pick up our pms? I've spent 2 out of the last 3 years abroad - so maybe my circumstances aren't typical. I know a lot of people don't like BV because the Rothchilds have a minority interest. Well, as long as everything is allocated, etc. and they can't leverage, I see that as a possible plus. They're not exactly a stupid banking family.

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  119. Pablo,
    If you mean crash as in a one day event like 1987, then stop worrying. The Plunge Protection Team was established in order to stop any such event occuring again.

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  120. @SP

    When I finally decided to pull back from the rigged institutions, I decided to go basic:

    Water, food, shelter, protection [guns, ammo, training, other gear]. When I built the stockpiles, I focused on wealth preservation outside of the reach of TPTB.

    Hence, the allocation from mid last summer was, not counting the water, food, shelter, ammo:

    Cash: the traditional investment vehicles [rigged stock market, llocation started out this way last summer:

    Cash: 30%
    Physical Gold: 25%
    Physical Silver: 40%
    Ammo, dollar cost averaging: 5%

    Now, due to physical silver's meteoric rise, I am way overweight in physical silver, but I am going to keep stockpiling it, just as fast as I can.

    I am going to add some more physical gold when the next big raid comes, probably next week, to try to get the physical gold back to a larger percentage.

    As for off shore, forget it. I am third generation Californian. I have plenty of places where all physical is safe and sound, and out of reach of anyone, including the King's men. I can lay low for years.

    I have marketable skills: I am a helicopter and airplane pilot. I build craftsman furniture. I plant and harvest organic fruits and vegetables. I would make homemade beer and spirits, but I no longer drink.

    When the SHTF, I am going to run the local homeowner group, and we all are going to be just fine.

    When some semblance of order returns, I will emerge as one with means. I do absolutely understand the Golden Rule: "He who has the gold, makes the rules."

    I liken the coming chaos to the late 1800's and the turn of the century. It was a marvelous and horrible time to live. There were those who did just fine, and those that didn't. Think about Tombstone and guess which side I am going to be on.

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  121. Tonight, Josh and I are each lifting a couple of syringes of Ketaject in honor of Turd Ferguson and all my fellow Turdanistas.

    Brad

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  122. how are you with living estates?

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  123. Egyptians Court Foes of the U.S.

    Iran and Egypt's new government signaled they were moving quickly to thaw decades of frosty relations, worrying the U.S., Israel and Saudi Arabia that the overtures could upset the Mideast's balance of power.

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  124. @Torx and Fortinbras:

    In California, the concept of eminent domain is more subtle, and less likely to peasant uprising.

    The local goverment boards can and do act with impunity. They are, literally, the King's Men, immune to attack, criticism, or reversal as to any of their dictates.

    The concept is called a "regulatory taking."

    The US Constitution and the Bill of Rights talk of terms of a "taking" and for which the government must pay "just compensation."

    This in California has devolved into a subspecialty of law, with detailed, confusing, arcane rules and procedure. So much so, that the CEB [California State Bar, Committee on Continuation Education], through its own publishing arm, puts out an $800 dollar, two volume litigation practice guide, with annual updates which allow attorneys to read up and try to get a handle on the complexities of the whole mess.

    Suffice it to say, that even with a solid, winnable case, with no real dispute over the taking, and with the only dispute being one of how much to pay for the taking, the legal costs and fees can easily exceed $300,000, and for a simple takings case.

    I worked on a case for 5 years, amassed over $150,000 in out of pocket litigation costs, and managed to settle the case short of trial for what the client believed was acceptable. The return on investment by the client was 200%. If the client lost, it would have erased her assets and her retirement. She went all in, and gambled. I am happy to have won, but she was a very rare client.

    Suffice it to say, that the State of California wields all the power, and the citizens are screwed.

    Even with a Constitutional violation, the costs are not worth it, unless you are a very big player.

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  125. Pablo...You never know.
    I convinced my Dad today (minutes after the S&P news)to to sell his portflio of regular stocks, mutuals etc. and go into cash for a little bit as insurance.
    I also convinced him about 3 months ago to hold a portion in a PM based fund. He did and is glad he did so.
    I told him to hang onto the PM one and just play it cool and safe for a little bit.
    My Mom and him are vacationing in FLA. and he has his brokers phone # and he called him after we got off the phone around 9:30 a.m.
    He can rest a bit easier to finish his vacation up and see where everything is at after they get home.

    Your question...days, weeks, months? Could be anyone of those at this point.

    MY dad worked hard his whole life to get where's he's at. He is now safe short term until the smoke clears but at least he's on the sideline's waiting a bit, safe.

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  126. slv is paper silver. custodion JPM.The funds that invest heavily in slv are becoming worried as its becoming more main stream knowledge that they may not have the tonnage they claim Pslv, however is audited independently and has real silver at the royal canadian mint. people, myself included feel the transparency of pslv combined with eric sprotts reputation are worth paying extra for,this in my opinion is draining investment towards quality cef,pslv,and a swiss fund ticker escapes me i,ll find it later cheers

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  127. Do I see a little life in Ag right now?
    Hope so. Hate seeing it just languish and fade down and just sit there before it gets to the next round number.

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  128. I actually remember that day in 1987 very well. I spent a lot of it staring at a Quotron at 60 Broad Street, 8th floor (equities research).

    Yet as dramatic as that day's events were, I have to say it didn't come close to the cold fear I had when I watched the flash crash happening on my computer screen last year. There was no hint of civility, last year.

    The flash crash was aptly named: a cold, quick freeze, like an instant ice age. And then, so artificially and miraculously thawed! like someone just turned on the microwave. But I have wondered often, in the intervening months, what if the power to that microwave had failed at the crucial moment.

    And could the flash crash happen again? Of course! The PPT was around last year too. The PPT is being stripped of its omnipotence. The flash crash proves it.

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  129. From Wiki regarding income tax:

    "In order to help pay for its war effort in the American Civil War, the United States government imposed its first personal income tax, on August 5, 1861, as part of the Revenue Act of 1861 (3% of all incomes over US $800).[8][verification needed] This tax was repealed and replaced by another income tax in 1862.[9][verification needed]

    In 1894, Democrats in Congress passed the Wilson-Gorman tariff, which imposed the first peacetime income tax. The rate was 2% on income over $4000, which meant fewer than 10% of households would pay any. The purpose of the income tax was to make up for revenue that would be lost by tariff reductions.[10] Also, the Panic of 1893 is said to have something to do with the passage of Wilson-Gorman."

    There's more to the article and the fact it's tax season we must remind ourselves that originally, there never was income tax! There always is a reason to grab bit by bit from the people. If I were to remake Back to the Futue movie, I would interview Paine, Jefferson, and the rest about the state of the current US. It sure seems like things are completely different.

    Just for kicks, I bought an oil lamp and it worked better than any candle. You can adjust the wick; giving larger flame with brighter luminescence. Then the power went back on and here I am on an internet blog! Hope everyone in the Carolinas fared well, we got hit pretty hard.

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  130. @sp
    15% gold
    17% silver
    50% retirement acct (can't touch it!)
    10% mutual funds/money market acct (6% 10 yr ave)
    8% food/water/lead/hand tools/etc.

    @old navy
    Keep preaching brother! When this all falls apart, I'll be at my favorite bank (with a rope).

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  131. Received the SLW Notice of Annual Meeting today. The cover letter was signed by Peter Barnes, CEO and dated March 23, 2011. Barnes is first line on the ballot for a board seat. The same Peter Barnes that left abruptly and without explanation last Wednesday.

    I'd sure like to know, did he walk or was he shoved? And,, what did he know and when did he know it? Would go a long way toward explaining SLW's price action last few days. Share price is now trading under the price of physical.

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  132. Glad you are ok thecoloredsky ...I was wondering about you. ..All is well here ...storms hit harder out your way than mine.

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  133. Irene - as I like to say, we can burn that bridge when we come to it.

    Johnny - there was a concerted attempt a while back to shake people out of PSLV and into SLV. And it did see, that PSLV would perform more poorly, and I couldn't help but see it as bullish. It was really odd, and I didn't voice my bullishness from that source because it is crazy and conspiratorial but I am not surprised to see the fund take off. Something (and ignore the previous as delusional, perhaps) was holding it back. And despite the little downturn at the moment, I think we are going ballistic.

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  134. Be patient, the junior miners have outperformed slv and gld short term and long term after the crash. Their earnings with be off the charts next quarter if pm prices stay at these levels. As housing goes down gold and silver will go up. The FED and the US cannot stop stimulating until housing recovers nominally. It will be at least a decade.

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  135. Eric#1...I'm going to look into the Maybury letter.
    What he outlined isn't so shocking I guess but it's well put together and not a bunch of single random thoughts here and there.

    It's tough to see and acknowledge these things when your living inside them and can't/won't or don't see it for what it is.
    We like to think our Govt. is looking out for our best interests but that is plainly naive and hopeful thinking.
    We're serfs. I guess it's hard to accept that.
    I finally have a while ago but it's all coming home real hard and it's so obvious at this point. Everything is upside down
    The scary part is ther is no real popular movement among the majority of people at this point. I'm starting to wonder if the sheeple are actually capable or have it in them.
    Not us, the 1%, but the rest.

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  136. M Halyard - that flash crash unnerved me too. Powerless to watch it - took out some sensible prudent stops I had set. Never set a stop again.

    thecoloredsky - the was no income tax in Canada until they introduced it as a temporary measure during the First World War, I believe. Off the top of my head, but I think I was listening in 'high' school.

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  137. "Days, weeks, or months?"
    Pablo, you left off hours!

    Just opened a new account with Optionshouse.com. $3.95 stock trades and I get a free new Dell 24" monitor with initial $5000.00 deposit in my account. Their reviews looked good.

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  138. Debbie - Turd renamed the USD - Piece of Shit - the X is for Index. So USDX = POSX.

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  139. Whoa - gold is getting a little hammering. Stop that.

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  140. Syrian troops were fanned out Sunday, April 17, along the country's borders with Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon to choke off the smuggled arms, funds and foreign agents streaming in recent weeks to the aid of the opposition whose uprising has spread to every corner of the country. Independence Day Sunday was marked by a display by the authorities of a collection of automatic weapons allegedly smuggled through Iraq, as well as processions calling for the president's removal. In Homs, security forces shot dead four protesters and injured more than fifty. Some demonstrators wore shrouds proclaiming: Death is better than shame!
    Large sections of the Syrian economy have ground to a halt because 2,500 supply trucks are backed up on the Lebanese border and 3,000 trucks on the Jordanian and Iraqi frontiers for meticulous, time-consuming searches. The Syrian authorities suspect Saudi Arabia of smuggling weapons to the opposition through Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon, having commandeered the infamous Middle East smuggling ring of which the Assad regime was an organizer and key link - and which has now turned around to bite its master.

    The searches of convoys have caused the Syrian economy critical damage: Imported foodstuffs and raw materials are withheld from stores and factories and exports are almost at a standstill.

    Syria's political, business, military and intelligence elites, including the Assad family, amassed personal fortunes by creating and running those networks, whose pathways run from Sudan in the south through Sinai and Jordan up to Iraq in the east and Syria in the northwest.

    Military sources report that the Syrian regime was also its best customer, using the network to transfer contraband weapons to the Lebanese Hizballah, Palestinian extremists such as Hamas in the Gaza Strip and allied groups on the West Bank, and Sunni terrorists, including al Qaeda, in Iraq.

    Assad and his security chiefs have now decided that Damascus' role as the smuggling hub of the Levant threatens their hold on power because Saudi Arabia has begun using three network branches for spiriting arms and financial aid to the Syrian opposition:.
    1. Jordan: Syrian intelligence suspects Riyadh of establishing a headquarters in Amman headed by Prince Bandar bin Sultan Secretary-General of the Saudi National Security Council for aiding and arming the uprising.
    The town of Daraa, which leads the protest movement in southern Syria, lies athwart the only overland route linking Syria to Jordan. It is 100 kilometers from Damascus and 88 from Amman. More than 1,500 supply trucks, some from Saudi Arabia, are awaiting Syrian security checks before they can drive through.
    Syrian tanks and undercover forces also lie in wait for suspect traffic along the Yarmouk River which flows into Jordan.
    2. Iraq: Assad suspects the Saudis of pushing into Syria arms, money and provocateurs for stirring up riots with the help of the Sunni militias of the western Iraqi province of Al-Anbar. These locals are familiar with the paths to the Syrian border hidden by the dense wooded vegetation of the Euphrates and Tigris riverbanks between Husaiba in Iraq and Abu Kamal in Syria. The latter is the center of the Shammar tribe whose lands spill over into Saudi Arabia and Jordan.
    Since the Syrian army closed the only regular border with Iraq at Rabiyaa-Tall Kujik, another 1,500 trucks are piled up awaiting permission to pass through.
    3. Lebanon: Syria has clamped its most stringent security measures on its border with Lebanon, especially the goods terminal on the Abboudiyeh border. Damascus accuses Lebanese lawmaker Jamal al-Jarrah, a member of the Mustaqbal Movement headed by Saad Hariri, the Sunni prime minister ousted by Hizballah, of running the Saudi arms and funds route for sustaining the Syrian uprising.

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  141. Ginger

    The FairTax was introduced by the previous congressman from my district and is now championed by my current congressman. It has had a large number of cosponsors in congress, I can't quote the number now, but it is significant. The point is, this is not just some nice but hopeless idea. It is an idea whose time may well have come. We may well have the critical mass in congress necessary to get at least a serious debate started. Once the public in general realizes that we don't need the income tax to pay for the cost of our government AND we don't need the Social Security tax either, do you think they might want to know more?

    I'm not saying it will be easy, or that it will become law in the next congress, certainly not on either count. But people are now aware that the current system does not work, is too complex, too corrupt, drives jobs out of the country, and that we are broke in spite of it. They, and their congressional reps, are ripe for a better idea. We need to push it onto the national stage for 2012, that's all I'm saying.


    BTW, a little late with this comment, but I am glad you and your family are okay. I just today realized that you are in NC. I know both the Carolinas well and have family in NC.

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  142. For the people commenting on silver and gold "being knocked down" a bit...

    How about a little perspective. Unless gold is ready to go past 1500, the only way it has to go is down... Until it makes some lower lows in which violate the uptrend that gold & silver have formed, it is just noise.

    @ Xty
    I love the 1 minute chart just as much as you, but be sure to look at longer trends when the 1 minute trend seems "in trouble".. which is often. Simply stepping back to the 5 minute chart shows nothing but some oscillation. Higher prices = larger dollar denominated price swings.

    Volatility is what we want... Volatility is the reason for all statistics and mathematics... Volatility is king!

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  143. I think the hammering's just beginning, and it will be across-the-board.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/fed-to-signal-end-of-qe-2011-4

    It's a head fake, but it will probably be a summer long head fake. As Turd has pointed out ad infinitum, TFR is buying 75% of US treasuries for a reason. There's nobody waiting to step in and fill that void. There must be and will be QE3. Just a matter of when.

    But for the moment, I think our barbarous relics have peaked. Personally, I'm looking forward to the BTFD summer.

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  144. Nice article at KWN with James Turk talking about the $U$D, and mining shares. Should provide some confidence for those wondering and worrying about their mining shares.

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/4/18_James_Turk_-_Negative_US_Credit_Watch_Signals_Dollar_Collapse.html

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  145. Xty, I agree. I had some stops triggered that day, too, even though I tried desperately to cancel them. No good.

    If I learned anything, it's that when the SHTF, it will be too late to do anything about it.

    I think I will stock up on Crystal Lite. I hate drinking plain water.

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  146. DPH,

    Every time I read one of your posts this damn song runs through my head... thought you should share in my misery.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axOvTex6ET0

    PS People - times may be bleak but lets not forget the good things to. Friends, family, good food, great ideas, innovation, invention, freedom (it still exists some where in some time) and of course great music.

    To much cynicism aint healthy so...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sqmz2JkUK4Y

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  147. It's hard to watch the metals at times just fade away like no one else on the other side of the planet is trading them sometimes?
    What the heck?

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  148. DarkPurple

    Re: Maybury

    It's a little pricey, but inquire about an autobilling option where they just charge your credit card quarterly. I've been doing that for a long time and it's not too expensive that way. Maybe it's because I was sort of grandfathered in at a certain rate? I don't know.

    He doesn't do a whole lot of Buy this stock or whatever. So if you are looking for a lot of ticker symbols you could be disappointed. But mostly it's great for developing a sort of world view or paradigm that helps tremendously in trying to analyze and predict a lot of things. Stocks, gold, interest rates, war/peace, etc. He's been pretty damn spot on for quite a while now. I think he is currently talking something in the 3000-5000 range for gold. If you are a history buff, that's worth it alone. Lots of talk about the Roman Empire, etc. Also a lot about the Constitution, Founding Fathers, etc. Politically, he would fit broadly in a Libertarian view. Not a lot of love for either Dems or Repubs. More just practical about it. Like "here's what they are going to do, and here's how you need to protect yourself". There's a few regular themes that I've begun to skim, but I still really really like it.

    Go to youtube and see what you can find. I know he has a few things there. I'm looking at a newsletter right now and it says he did an interview at www.thedailybell.com on 2/6/11. See if you can track that down. He has a website too, but honestly I'm not sure how much free stuff he puts on there. Or even how much stuff is password protected to be honest. I seldom go there. The heart and soul of his stuff is his mailed, hard copy newsletter that generally runs 8 pages. 10 times per year.

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  149. @thecoloredsky

    Thanks for the history lesson. I was unaware that there were any income tax efforts prior to the 16th amendment. That was passed, like the income tax in Canada, as a way to pay for WWI and was only supposed to affect "the rich". Never went away, though and in WWI, the government enacted payroll withholding as a more effective way to collect the revenue necessary to pay for the war effort. And, clearly, the payroll tax was not directed at "the rich". Again, it never went away. In the past 4-5 decades, the tax code has exploded, becoming the government's favorite way to control public and industry behavior, reward political friends and supporters, and punish those it wishes to.

    The FairTax will eliminate all that BS. Taxes will be collected in a very open and transparent way and everyone will pay them and be aware of them. Right now, virtually everything we buy has about 22% embedded taxes in the price, before we add state sales taxes. The FairTax simply replaces those embedded income taxes with an embedded consumption tax.

    It spreads the tax burden more fairly, eliminates the coercive and controlling levers in the current tax system, raises more revenue, and would make American businesses incredibly more competitive in the world.

    http://www.fairtax.org/site/PageServer

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  150. Swamp...Love that song. Was one of my first albums. Made in Japan.

    Ever listen to the lyrics in Black Sabbath War Pigs?
    Thats been cruising through my mind lately.

    I hear you about keeping positive. I am inspite of what I write about. This is a good place to air and share my anxieties.(I think)

    Inspite of being divorced and not having custody, my kids are in my life everyday and keep me very happy :-)
    And I've been pretty happy lately about other things, especially my bulging purple Crown Royal bag of shiny objects.
    Time for another pouch.

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  151. Re: Metalhead

    Does anyone have any input on what Bernanke may say in this historic PR campaign he is undergoing (4/27)? Anyone have any input to something that isn't the "standard view" of QE II is ending and we are recovering?

    I find it hard to believe that they will put Bernanke out there only to have the markets fall on what he delivers (supposedly "QE II ending, economy recovering"). This seems counter-productive...

    --
    @ DPH

    Thank you for the article, this sure makes a lot of sense.

    With the S&P announcement today it was an ideal time for shorts on the US dollar to cover and book some profits so they did. This short covering bounce may last a few more days, but the fundamental outlook for the dollar remains bleak. What the S&P was signaling is that the US government needs to dramatically cut its spending, but I see no sign of politicians in Washington mending their ways.

    And, I am glad that I agree with James Turk regarding mining shares:

    Turk was correct to note the underperformance of the mining shares. As Pierre Lassonde said in his last KWN interview, the mining shares were already one standard deviation away from the mean and the situation has worsened since that interview. Keep in mind that the mining shares will move from dramatic undervaluation to overvaluation and you will want to make sure you participate in that sensational price restructuring. As Turk stated that move in the mining shares, “Will be absolutely breathtaking.”

    --

    Count me in for the "absolutely breathtaking" part... I'm waiting... as are a lot of people on this board...

    Bonus for Silvermex Owners:
    Found this gem earlier (pre-silvermex merger). Info is a bit dated but it really is a fantastic viewpoint from within the company (once again found on stockhouse boards)

    http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/503905-marco-g/97873-bonanza-aztec-silver-interview-with-with-genco-in-merger-with-silvermex-ggcrf-tsx-ggc

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  152. Sorry, WWII was when payroll withholding was introduced.

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  153. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gbxfe7DMxVo


    Listen to the lyrics

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  154. BS - War Pgs. Brother could I tell you some stories. That brings back memories of good friends and far less complicated times.

    Here is one for all the traders with miner woes (myself included) cause holding and trading them this last little while is a bit like this:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKFx0MMqb48

    Cheers people.

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  155. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pZCyOWLrRTE&feature=related

    Much clearer version and the lyrics. Enjoy!


    Generals gathered in their masses
    Just like witches at black masses
    Evil minds that plot destruction
    Sorcerers of death's construction
    In the fields the bodies burning
    As the war machine keeps turning
    Death and hatred to mankind
    Poisoning their brainwashed minds
    Oh lord yeah!

    Politicians hide themselves away
    They only started the war
    Why should they go out to fight?
    They leave that role to the poor

    Time will tell on their power minds
    Making war just for fun
    Treating people just like pawns in chess
    Wait 'til their judgement day comes
    Yeah!

    Now in darkness world stops turning
    Ashes where the bodies burning
    No more war pigs have the power
    Hand of God has struck the hour
    Day of judgement, God is calling
    On their knees the war pig's crawling
    Begging mercy for their sins
    Satan laughing spreads his wings
    Oh lord yeah!

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  156. Thanks DPH. Sabbath running in the office sounds so sweet...

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  157. Walt,

    I think you are on the right track calculating your leveraged capacity carefully first...I presume you are using a platform that lets you choose the leverage. You can calculate it by Oz or by $, don't over-complicate it. If leverage is 10:1 then with $1,000 you are trading a potential $10k position and 10% will wipe you out; 20:1 is $20,000 and 5% you are out, (ex margin) etc.

    A lot of highly leveraged traders create each position in a lot divisible by 3, so they build their position in three seperate purchases and that lets them sell one at a time on potential spikes yet keep/build a small core long position....presuming a bull market.

    So, now your entry position is the key. Read Turd carefully, chart likely low points and wait for a tradable pattern to emerge. Check that pattern against longer time-frame charts. Have rough targets in mind for partial exit and follow the price action. There is no rush, there will always be markets to trade.

    Buy on dips, not spikes. Be aware of Option Expiry days, FOMC meetings, Blythe's coffee breaks etc.

    The real test of how much leverage to use is the quality of your sleep each night. Good luck.

    Over to you, all just my opinion of course.

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  158. Xty follow the premium to nav, it fluctuates the fund a closed end fund.i haven't read the whole prospectus but closed end funds are not like slv where people buy "create new shares" and slv adds silver to their holdings.premium to nav is just what the market will pay for a finite amount of bullion.premium can disappear for a number of reasons.Any way caution is advised make some and take some off the table cef premium to nav went from 75 to par because they purchased millions of dollars more bullion. Now is a good entry point for cef as premium will grow back to 5-7% or more

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  159. Mahalo Scott,
    Sorry I don't deal in credit,you've earned everything in ag. I understand you and EVERYONE else are not experts but you have wisdom far beyond your years and experience with a quarter cup of humility to boot. You are the bright shining star of the future which gives me great hope for my 6 and 11 yr olds. Please read The Fourth Turning it may enable you to see your path more clearly.
    I feel better and better every day as I see people starting to wake up as they discover Armstrong, Mayberry et al and various other sites, miners and concepts that I have had for years. The more we learn the better we all are.
    To those who "fear" miners, confiscation or whatevers I would suggest you not make decisions based on/in fear. Anything is possible, what is probable? ie if they jacked our miners your phys would be way more valuable, if they jacked our phys, lead and food would be more valuable and so on. That is why we are advised to prepare accordingly(mentally,physically,spiritually,financially), it's not just a groovy tag line. I for one do not try to analyze all this too much because it's like being in a hurricane, no telling what will come flying thru the wall or roof, like that school a few years back.Prepare and have faith. This is all set for launch pretty soon and I will guaranty that some of the worst companies will go up thousands of percent there will be no rhyme or reason to anything most analysis will be useless that is why it's called a MANIA. Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds check it out. Relax check Irene's meditation trip it works it's easy do it BEFORE buys/sells and other decisions. Main ting cool head. Oh yea and sprouts.....smoked apple BACON in fine chocolate will be worth more than anything when SHTF.
    A hui hou malama pono kakou.

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  160. I agree with SoccerDad - need to hold onto the miners. I also have diversified by adding holdings of CEF a bullion depository (or the Sprott funds), the GLD and SLV EFT stocks and their options and the TGLD Mutual fund.

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  161. Scott, it's an off election year crash. Easily remedied by a bigger, badder round of QE that the sheeple will be screaming for by around September. I believe that's the goal: to manufacture the perceived "need" to go full-on Zimbabwe. In that regard, a summer of pain will be most productive.

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  162. Told you the Globex would get ugly tonight. Blythe is working late :-)

    Is it just me or has the name "Blythe" become synonymous with any blip, crash or fluctuation in the price of PM's?

    It's like we have opened up a whole new world of vocabulary for the trading community all thanks to JPM.

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  163. Your welcome.
    How true the lyrics still ring today.

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  164. Xty i am such a lousy typer, cef went from 7.5% to par or slightly neg.slv only adds paper silver to its holdings although they claim its bullion.

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  165. DPH

    I just had to throw down a comment on the Black Sabbath. Nice work, man. Sabbath is my favorite band of all time, hence the screen name.

    DDT

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  166. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  167. See KWN for preview of the Bernank's BS. Jim Rickards always on it. Turk has a new bit there too.

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  168. Good morning all again from Asia.

    There is some profit taking going on in AU affecting AG but nothing serious. Can be expected now that we're close to the psychological $1500 mark.

    Interestingly though the following two chart patterns have developed:

    H1: bearish triple top - look for a retest of 42.00-42.50 area

    H4: bullish inverse head and shoulders - price projection up to 45.80 area

    The markets here seem to be still making sense of the S&P downgrade and hence taking some money off the table.

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  169. More Sabbath for those that like to rock:)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5l94Hq-Yc-w

    Whoa, I had to edit this thing due to my word verification being "trowers" How cool is that!

    Robin Trower

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBoq8aoWB4E

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  170. Glad to see we have some Sabbath heads on board.
    I was listening to them in 7th grade as I had some older friends at the time ;-J

    My 9th grade teacher asked all of us one time to bring an album in and he kept it and said he never saw it.
    Yeah right, he was a head and I didn't realize it. Took my original Black Sabbath Paranoid album.
    Oh well, taught him something I hope.

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  171. I used to love Trower. Haven't heard him in a long time.

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  172. That Trower was excellent. Thanks!

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  173. DarkPurple

    Looks like Maybury is currently running a special at $159/yr. At that price I would certainly grab it. Regular is $300.

    http://www.richardmaybury.com/newsletter.html

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  174. Well, at this rate, we'll have another good entry point in the a.m. unless London picks things up. I'm ready to load up on more SLW in the a.m. while it's below $2.00 (Jan 12 $65 calls) and GG

    U.S. gets downgraded by the S&P and the world yawns...maybe for now.

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  175. Right on, Trower rocks, the man can play and Dewar has such a wicked voice. I have a serious 70's hard rock addiction/collection. Listen to a lot of newer stuff that takes massive influence from Sabbath and some of the other old heavy hitters.

    You're welcome, DPH.

    More for ya:)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOeOC16Jm9g

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsE5xSpm2s4

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  176. I saw Black Sabbath at the Filmore West in San Francisco in 1970. Also The James Gang.

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  177. DPH & SV,

    The wife is complaining about the music coming from the office. It is now officially a great night... time to break out the red wine... and hope for silver to kick it up a notch. Come on Asia help a brother out.... good morning Mr. JoeKa!

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  178. Eric1...Thanks for that! I'll check into it in the a.m.
    Can't have enough mind widening reading material.
    Kumanari just mentioned the Fourth Turning and thats been on my mind of things to read.
    God, so much reading, I could use some audio books at times .
    But would they actually be books then?
    I have "When Money Die's" half read. And I have "The Black Swan" half read and I have "The War after Armegeddon" that just came in from Ralph Peters.
    Andd I want to get that Jessee Livermore book I can't recall at the moment.
    Someone remind me, tip of my tongue right now,
    Info. overload at times, but it's a good thing to be well informed then just in "Bliss"

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  179. my word ver was ...wetammo...not cool

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  180. @DPH - I think there may be opportunities to reload on London trading hrs. Which is why I trimmed off peripheral profits to release more powder precisely for this purpose - to reload and to reload hard.

    @Swamp - Good morning! Or should I say Good night!

    Sleep well friends. We're taxing s short runway this week which may surprise us (hopefully positively)!

    Excelsior!

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  181. 1) 80% physical silver
    2) 10% miners
    3) 10% futures (my cash pig which generates funds for #1 and #2).

    I don't know how people can sleep without a lot of physical in their personal possession. I cannot.

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  182. Rick...Awesome! I bet that wasn't all you saw...;-P

    word ver...psilocybin

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  183. JoeKa...."reload and reload hard."
    Love that thinking! Thats what I'm thinking also. It will snapback hard.

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  184. Rockin' Swampfox. I had a little too much of the red stuff last night during my weekly, or bi-weekly waking up the neighbors session, hah!

    These two for the bankers...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=at7JvfvMB5c

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54H3EUAzpVg

    PS: I would LOVE to have been able to see Sabbath in the early daze... holy shit, that would be my ultimate wish I think. What a time for music.

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  185. I'm feeling better about lightening my Comex gold position this morning. I just got a chance to buy some back. I'm pretty sure I'll do it again if it gets close to $1500. If it drops more I'll add to my position.

    I would expect at least a few trading range cycles below $1500.

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  186. G'night mister JoeKa. Keep an eye on our freind Mr Silva while we here on the "West" coast sleep...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MW6E_TNgCsY

    To all - Peace, freedom and long life. See you tomorrow.

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  187. For those who are lamenting the miners lagging the precious metals rally, keep the faith. There's precedent to indicate that this is normal and that better times are ahead: http://thetsitrader.blogspot.com/2011/04/is-it-too-late-for-miners.html

    If things plays out the same way this time, the HUI approaching 800 would also be a good indication of an intermediate top in metals.

    PS. Swampfox, sorry to hear about your daughter.

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  188. DPH...Purple Microdot and rainbows!

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  189. Eric,
    I have had a subscription to EWR for 2 years now and that has been the going price. I am at work and do not have a copy of the April issue with me but the last thing Maybury said was to share the issue with family and friends so if you have the issue handy give the User Name/Password for the month and whoever wants to can check out this months issue.

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  190. I once saw a giant 50ft. man at a Grateful Dead concert lying down across the audience smoking a cigarette very casually. Whew!

    Yep, that was a very long tme ago when I once wore a younger man's clothes.
    Time flies, that's for sure.

    I better cool it with that. Don't want to piss TF off or have others get a bad impression of me. Maybe too late.
    We all have things that have shaped our lives in the past. Not all good, but not all that bad either.

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  191. For those watching the grain markets, Dec corn is making contract highs tonight. We're now in a weather market with wet weather causing planting delays. Wheat also rallied today due to dry weather issues in Europe, China, and the southwest US. The dilemma now is that if wheat continues to rally corn has to go with it to ensure we can make wheat feeding work.

    I stayed on the sidelines last week because I didn't have time to devote to monitoring my trading. I missed the dip this morning to 7.41.
    Was waiting on a deeper break. With the turnaround in wheat, I will be looking to get long on the first sign of weakness in July corn. Stop a little below todays low, target 8.00 to 8.36.

    atlee, what says your chart?

    Turd said,
    "Also, the Chicoms are raising the RRR again. Who cares?"

    Well it seems traders got over any concerns about China raising its reserve rates real quick.

    Thanks all for the PM comments. Got my IRA where I want it, got my spec account all in,
    and just looking to buy more physical.

    Good night all

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  192. My dear friend just launched a local currency in Baltimore! (I may repost this tomorrow for the east coasters.) Several cities w/ local currency have seen it appreciate against the dollar.
    http://baltimoregreencurrency.org/
    They are starting a google group for those of you interested in launching local currency in your towns. The biggest challenge was finding food providers who would join. This may be easier in places like Portland, where unlike Baltimore, we have urban farms...

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  193. DarkPurp

    Honestly, I don't know what I'm paying for Maybury. They 've been autobilling my credit card for so long I forgot what my rate is. It might be the $159. Whatever it is, it's worth it.

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  194. Cookie...I hope the AG and Justice Dept. leave your friend alone.
    They're gettig a bit uptight these days about that type of thing. Hope it works out.

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  195. Thanks Eric#1...I'll check it out tomorrow. I'm interested.

    {:-O Yawn...Getting tired over here.
    Going to sack out and watch a late hockey game.
    The PM non-action tonight is making me yawn.
    Tomorrow could provide some fireworks, we'll see.

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  196. DPH,
    the book about Livermore is:
    Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
    There's a nice annotated edition available, published in 2009:

    http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0470481595/ref=pd_lpo_k2_dp_sr_3?pf_rd_p=1278548962&pf_rd_s=lpo-top-stripe-1&pf_rd_t=201&pf_rd_i=0471059706&pf_rd_m=ATVPDKIKX0DER&pf_rd_r=1E0TQ0MPA9QEC5PJZMJ3

    If you like it you'll also like the Livermore biography called Jesse Livermore: World's Greatest Stock Trader, by Richard Smitten

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