Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Calvin

When I was a kid, my sister had a cat named Calvin. Its been so long ago that my memory is fading but I remember Calvin looking a lot like this:
And this was on a good day. Ole Cal was mangy guy. He got that way from too many nights on the town while we slept but my sister sure loved him. I used to tease her, as all little brothers should, with: "Calvin and Re-Pete sitting by a volcano. Calvin fell in. Who was left? Re-Pete! Calvin and Re-Pete sitting by a volcano. Calvin fell in. Who was left? Re-Pete!" This could go on for hours and, frankly, it's making me laugh again right now as I type. One day, not long after my sister had gone off to college, ole Cal was sitting on our front porch. I recall seeing him begin to labor in his breathing and, the next thing you know, he just keeled over right there. Hard livin'll do that to you, I guess. As he rolled over, he fell off the porch, landed in the grass and, whaddayaknow, he bounced a little bit. Not much, just a little, and a young Turd was introduced to the concept of the "Dead Cat Bounce".

Fast forward to today and look at a 2-hour chart of the POSX:
Holy cow, this thing looks terrible. It looks ready to break the lows of November 2009 and head to critical support between 71 and 72. Because it looks so awful is precisely why it will reverse here and give us a Dead Cat Bounce. Something will be said or something will happen and the dollar will spring higher. Newer shorts will be forced to cover and the bounce will move higher still. The bounce won't be much...maybe 0.60-0.80 taking the June index back up toward 75.20-75.40. This move will be enough, however, to put the breaks on the PM rally and give The Cartel a little breathing room as we head into May silver option expiration and first notice day. This also trends perfectly with the trading points I gave you last evening. Please re-read this and give it your full consideration.
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/04/something-to-consider.html
Taking my own advice, I have now sold all of my May silver options at an extraordinary profit. I've also unloaded my June 1500 gold calls. The only PM option position I currently have is a measly 2 June gold 1550s.

OK, here are your PM charts. First, here's a 2-hour June gold. This needs to move higher right now or it risks a brief, consolidation move. On the back of the anticipated POSX bounce, I expect gold to fail here and trade down over the next few sessions to the support level of 1480-85. The move will look almost identical to the down move on the chart right above the word "June".
IF I can get gold to cooperate, I will be an aggressive buyer sometime early next week at that 1480 level.

Silver has a similar look and I've given you two charts to consider. First, here's a 15-minute. Note the $1.00 downdraft from this morning. Usually, this is an indicator of more to come. We'll see. Like gold, if it doesn't move to a new high near 45.50 very soon, chances increase that sellers will begin to outnumber buyers and we'll get a brief pullback.
On this 2-hour chart, you can again see the area where I'll be looking to buy back in...somewhere between 43.50 and 42.50 or, more specifically, around 43.
Giving the metals great support is WTI crude. We noticed the breakout of the downtrend yesterday and speculated on a move to 110.50-111.00. Well, we got it! From here, you could see a pullback to 110.50 but a retest of the highs earlier this month looks like a virtual certainty. As discussed then, IF crude can trade through 114, it looks like clear sailing all the way UP to $122 or so. Yikes!
Lastly, I'd like to thank all of you who have recently shared some of your largesse and windfall through the "Feed The Turd" button. Every "donation", regardless of size, is greatly appreciated and I am truly grateful to receive them. That so many have apparently profited by visiting this site gives me an enormous feeling of personal and professional satisfaction. Soon, I will reward you with Turd's World version 1.0 and we will all set out to share our collective knowledge and help as many as possible to prepare for the uncertain times that lay ahead. Thank you again for your generous contribution of fiat, knowledge, experience and wisdom.

Turd out.


9:45 pm EDT UPDATE:
Well, I could just about barf. I feel like I've got a hairball like ole Calvin used to have. Only my hairball is made out of silver that Scotia Mocatta just announced they are effectively removing from possible delivery status.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/45-scotia-mocattas-registered-silver-transferred-eligible-status
Combine this with the fact that May and July silver are now trading in "Backward Asian" to September and December...
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver_quotes_globex.html
And we may finally be on the verge of a serious, serious delivery problem at The Death Star.

And I'm out. I wasn't out yesterday at this time but I'm sure as shit out now. Nuts.
I'm still expecting a "Calvin Bounce" out of the POSX but it hasn't happened yet.
I'm still expecting The Cartel to try to gin up some selling to frighten the May longs but they haven't yet.
I'd love to be long May calls but they expire in three trading days.
So, I'm out. Made a boatload of money but I'm still out. And it hurts. Killing me, in fact. Near death.
See you in the a.m. TF

454 comments:

  1. your sister's name was re-pete? i'm not getting this story

    ReplyDelete
  2. Come on, guys, stop numbering the posts already. Thank you, Turd, for enabling us (or at least me) to be in a position to ring that metaphorical silver piece into the tip jar.

    ReplyDelete
  3. thanks for the great analysis in the rest of the piece though!

    ReplyDelete
  4. More great insight. Thanks Turd.

    ReplyDelete
  5. just fed u :)

    btw when u talk about " 2 June gold 1550s."

    do u mean in the futures market? forex?

    ReplyDelete
  6. My most winning miners are as follows:
    ALCYF: +18.5%
    SWC: +7.5%
    UXG: +4.6%
    MFN: +4.5%
    AG: +4.1%

    ALCYF (Alcyone Resources Ltd) is an Australia-based penny stock which has almost tripled for me. I didn't invest a full "portion" into this guy, but I'll take it. This is one of those working mines that shut down and is now coming back online.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Man - I really did catch up on that whole earlier thread, crafted a comment, and bingo - it was the last one - dang. I agree we need to stop with the 'First' comments - but I reserve the right to copy an TEP.


    The dollar is falling off a cliff.

    Eric:

    "I bought some CEF on that dip. Next week doesn't worry me. If they raid, I just buy more."

    I bought some yesterday - thought it was a better thing to sit in than cash, and I am riding out any dip - I love Turd's white-out - it helps me greatly, as does using the 'D' button as someone suggested. Are you going to try the bacon today? It seems like a great idea - I can't decide if I should order a case or buy a canner - canning bacon looks really easy. I have done some simple canning before, and jams and jellies - but once I saw that all you use is bacon and parchment paper I was totally encouraged. And also - it never occurred to me that I wouldn't know the dates on my St Gaudens until they arrived. I hope they are ancient.

    Ginger - you doubled your money - awesome. And please keep up with the detailed reporting - I am eagerly awaiting the next installment.

    Hillsie - I think a lot like you - very similar strategy and reasoning.

    Paul Bain - hey - your comments are fine. We all say things like you said. Ignore the trolls and they will go away. Asinine to only post to criticize another poster. Carry on and post as you were!

    ReplyDelete
  8. To answer those who ask, "At these prices are you buying Physical?":

    Yesterday I scooped up another stack of 90% Franklin & Kennedy halves; paid close to Spot but am already ahead today. They were every bit as nice as the seller had described, plus there was a prood 2000 ASE in the lot.

    Definitely going to sort through my stash to weed out the 'smoothies' and sell them.

    So yes still accumulating physical at this point in time.

    -Mammoth

    ReplyDelete
  9. Now that was a funny dead cat bounce story.

    ReplyDelete
  10. I found the Calvin story a bit sad. :( Poor kitty.

    I hope you at least gave your sister a hug that day. ....Knowing brothers like I do though........I doubt that you did!!

    Bad Turd!
    :D

    CA Lawyer,
    I posted some links for you on the previous thread before I knew it had ended! I hope they help.

    ReplyDelete
  11. I had three green miners today and seven red, but only barely. But consistently green, day after day, are PHY.U and PHS.U. And my new pride and joy, CEF. There is a lesson in there somewhere, I must say.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Xty-

    Cmon, 500 posts in the last thread, 200 of them devoted to canned bacon, and you're upset about the first 4? Lighten up, Francis!

    Ginger-

    Cool! I've only been doing this since last fall, and the first time I made a K on a trade I was blown away.... it seems like such easy money, but really it's not. So congrats!

    ReplyDelete
  13. Closed final spec position @ 45.228, core only now.
    Will BTFD if it gets into Turd's range (thanks buddy, good numbers you're showing there) tomorrow.
    Otherwise, looking for 41-43 buys next week.

    ReplyDelete
  14. I bought another monster box, and paid the premium. I suspect that down the road, physical silver will not be available, or that the premium on ASE's will be through the roof.

    I prefer ASE's because they are US legal tender. Despite the end-of-the-world scenarios, the US still has the biggest military, and we are not going to just curl up in a pile and vanish. So, silver rounds that are beyond reproach, like ASE's, will, in my humble opinion, tend to be very much in demand both as a means of exchange and as a store of value.

    Hence, I will pay the premium even though I could just get junk silver bags, or nondescript rounds. Maybe I am wrong, but as they say, I have peace of mind, and can sleep at night.

    Xty, I love reading your posts. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  15. My 80 year old Father dumped 1/3 of his PSLV shares 1st thing this morning above 22. I still see FRYday closing higher than this on PSLV along with where we are on spot silver.. Just some more panic buying on any dip.
    Better hope FOMC week the reprobate dead head fed goons take gold/silver to the woodshed for a beating. If not, the dollar closer to collapse than I thought and the fed goons have lost all control!! What a bunch of lunatics
    at DC, distribution central; paper fiat dollars to infinity!! Gold/silver don't lie! Our leaders do. Promising everything and delivering on nothing. USD accelerating to zero sum and all attached to it!! Self evident truth of
    the matter for anyone thinking otherwise. Know it now or later makes no difference. All will know eventually; too very late on the broad road of destruction.!!

    ReplyDelete
  16. Excellent work Turd. I'm on-board with your thoughts that we could see a decline heading into next week from these levels. On a more longer term time frame (1-2 months), I have this sneaky suspicion that we could be in for a size-able correction in precious metals. My rationale behind that is that the recent action in PM markets have been a huge slap in the face of the Fed and the other monetary authorities world-wide. Over the past few months, Gold and Silver have emerged as the de-facto reserve currencies of the world. For those who are naive enough to believe that the US is going to happily relinquish the USD's reserve currency status without putting in a decent fight are in for a big surprise. If the current momentum in the PM markets is not tamed immediately then we could experience a ripple effect throughout the financial system (with a bond market blow up and a run on the 'well capitalized' banking system). The rising PM markets are forcing a lot of folks to liquidate their fiat based bank accounts and convert the cash into PM (and hence the bank run).

    Also complicating matters for the authorities is the fact that if Gold has another stellar year in 2011 (like the one it had in 2010), then we could also see a massive redemption out of the managed money into PMs. Hey, if I get a 30% annualized return on Gold, why do I need to pay all those fees to the hedge funds?

    So I expect the market to do exactly opposite of what the majority thinks will happen.

    BTW, Memo to John Paulson's investors: You dimwits are paying the guy 2 & 20 for him to invest your money in GLD? For real??

    ReplyDelete
  17. Take a look at gold and it's relationship to other assets. You have to buy PM.

    http://lonerangersilver.wordpress.com/2011/04/17/john-exter%E2%80%99s-inverted-pyramid-of-assets/

    ReplyDelete
  18. @Atlee
    Thanks for the thoughts. No offense taken what so ever. Just wanted to go fishing for thoughts. If a correction comes I don't think it's going to last more then 3-7 TDays. I'm a long and inter term bull on PM's.
    I have been frustrated by past experiences of missing a 1-2 dollar shake out...which is one of the reasons I have check out this site...if we're smelling "an ambush" (someone said that today) maybe it helps us beat back the monster.
    Cheers
    AO

    ReplyDelete
  19. Thinking out loud here:

    I'm not a market timer, I buy and hold.
    My personal trading inclination is to just sit on it.

    Presently I hold some July 44 silver futures options. If I had not been reading the turd I'd just sit on these and wait till they expire or until they are $5 or so ITM then roll up.
    (I just rolled some 40's to 44's)

    Yet all this talk of a correction combined with some nervousness about the FOMC meeting next week makes me think maybe I should get out on Thursday.

    The flip side is that the way silver is moving I hate to be 100% out of the market.

    This is complicated by the fact that what started out as a "gambling" account is now
    worth enough be significant.


    Thoughts advice?

    ReplyDelete
  20. Just picked up my latest roll of 20 silver Buffalos at Gainesville Coins today. Hard to believe when I ordered them on 4/11 they were 40.32 and have gained almost 10% up to today.

    The guy who's usually working the counter said they're tapped out of almost everything. Most of the display cases were empty other than the spendier collector coins and gift-set stuff.

    I bought a gold Buffalo there on 4/11 also which at that time they had a big sheet of like 20 marked with U.S. Mint in a shrinked plastic deal where they just had to take scissors and cut the coin off the sheet (still sealed in the plastic though). Wierd...

    But those got rampaged, and all their other 1oz coins are gone except for 1/10's and some 1/4's.

    He said it's been busier now than all year. They're still able to deliver within 5 or 10 days though.

    I had to wait about 20 minutes due to people ahead of me scooping up their new gear, and there were plenty of people waiting behind me waiting to order up more gear too! Crazy

    Anyway, just a local GVille Coins update for all who might be interested.

    Turd Rules!

    ReplyDelete
  21. OK, this is my dumb question, although I see some discussion above about accumulating at these levels...

    I bought some a bit above the breakout, have about 15% physical (gold and silver). Don't think I can quite make 20%. That buy was half rounds and half junk. CMI's Bill Haynes holds big bars and junk, and I recently got into junk and added more at .70 above spot.
    Have the last "half" of what I have left....and am a bit nervous about buying again...CNBC was on gold today, lots of bullish talk, but some old pros and the Texas U. guy on as well.
    So, it seems the mainstream is jumping on all this (not silver so much, definitely gold today)..

    Are Turd and Mammoth suggesting this is THE last chance to buy? A couple of weeks ago, the CMI head who's on KWN with Trader Dan was thinking that people buying at these levels (actually the levels then) were in at an intermediate top....but he didn't repeat that this past Friday.

    I know I've planned to buy more on a dip, but is this THE dip, our final chance?

    I don't trade paper, so for me it's physical and I don't want to confuse what you folks are discussing....

    THANKS!!!

    ReplyDelete
  22. Great posts yesterday and this morning. I agree with Turd about the dollar. There is too much negative talk now(S&P downgrade two days ago and more today).

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sp-follows-its-us-outlook-warning-comparable-one-gses-and-fhlb-system

    I tend to think anything that comes out in the MSM is designed to manipulate. So, I've got to ask myself why they are talking it down and who does it benefit?

    ReplyDelete
  23. PS...Haynes says people have been buying and selling, no big panic. this was last Friday....

    ReplyDelete
  24. Turd, Turd, help us out here! What is going on with the silver miners? Do we stay in? Run for our lives? Why are they going down while the metal goes skyward? Does anyone know out there? SLW took a dive today. Whazzup??????

    ReplyDelete
  25. Turd,

    Can you provide a prediction on far you see this run going before we get a parabolic top and correction? (after the mild correction your predicting ends) Unless we have entered the final stage of this bull market, this current run will just like it did in 2006, 2008 etc. So any predictions would be great!

    ReplyDelete
  26. Shantanu B - you lay out a very good case for the continuing rise of PMs, and then say you are therefore going to do the opposite of what the majority thinks will happen. But this is not a bubble, so the usual get out when the bell-hop is getting in no longer applies. The PM market is tiny but growing - it is becoming mainstream - and as you say why get 1% when you could get 30%? Especially when the asset underlying it all is an historic holder of value?

    Paul B - I am sitting. If there is a dip, I will buy more CEF probably. I think the nervousness is deliberate - another desperate attempt to shake the longs. The more they try the more I remember why I got here in the first place. Yes, there will proably be a dip - how long, how deep? but look where we are. 1500 and 45.20! The rise out of it will be parabolic and missing it would be a shame!

    ReplyDelete
  27. Brand new interview with Santa:

    http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1303311900.php

    ReplyDelete
  28. Give a lady a break here and tell me what POSX stands for. I know it's Turd's word for USDX but for the life I me I cannot figure out what PO stands for (search returns nothing helpful) and it's driving me nuts. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  29. @ievi:

    You are damn smart. You and I think alike. I tend to believe that most of us metal heads think like this, too:

    "I tend to think anything that comes out in the MSM is designed to manipulate. So, I've got to ask myself why they are talking it down and who does it benefit?"

    Those questions are always in my mind whenever I hear anything on TV, or on the radio, or read (those so few times that I actually read a newspaper), and it sure would be helpful to listen or watch a source that could be trusted.

    Oh well . . . we always have the Turd.

    But still, the lingering question, is what is the truth? Why are they talking this down?

    I think it is for a big fleecing. There will be a massive up tick in the dollar POSX, based on outright lies from the Bentrod (thanks Afrum, for that moniker), and the other usual suspects.

    I bet they claim the unemployment numbers are much lower, that business starts are much higher, that the CPI is lower, that inflation is much lower, etc., ad nauseum. Then the talking bimbos will all just reference that same drivel and say "all is good. Those in precious metals are all going to get burned . . ."

    Then, TPTB will all massively short the run up, then cash in next pull back and make tons of coins.

    They certainly know what they are doing, so this is the only logical play in my mind.

    I am also certain that they have the end game figured out. Someone already posted it. They are angling for electronic money. That is, the only way to transact will be with a debit card. Physical money/silver/gold will be OUTLAWED.

    I am convinced that this is the case, so, naturally, if it is true, then TPTB don't care one bit when the dollar actually falls off the cliff on the POSX.

    So there you have it.

    ReplyDelete
  30. "Charity for Seniors hoards gold"


    This was in the headline of today's paper.

    Imagine being shat on for investing in gold to look after senior citizens. Link to the article below and it is stuffed wtih politics about how money is being wasted blah blah blah so skim it with your eyes.

    The printed version of the paper has the headline
    "Charity for Seniors hoards gold"
    A few things about that. One - use of the word hoarding, I haven't heard that word in about 30 years and only my parents' generation used it. Derogatory in implication. Two - this shows the paper thinks joe public thinks investing in physical gold is a dumb idea. Three - there
    are in fact some leaders out there who are trying to do a good thing by the disadvantaged and protect them from the decline in fiat power.

    From Canada's largest daily newspaper.

    Link: http://www.thestar.com/news/article/977339--seniors-charity-uses-donated-money-to-stockpile-gold

    ReplyDelete
  31. Am I seeing this right? Has backwardation returned to the May/July spread?

    http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver_quotes_globex.html

    ReplyDelete
  32. I have been buying and selling miners and usually losing money for a while now. No matter how great the company seemed or how diligently I did the technical analysis - usually losers. SLW and Great Panther were particularly frustrating.

    I listened to Michael Covel (of Turtle Traders fame) on Financial Sense Newshour on Saturday. He talked about how the only thing that matters now is the price - not fundamentals and not technicals.

    I joined Marketclub online on the weekend. Every stock is given a rating of -100 to +100 depending on a weighted calculation on last hour close above/below 5 hour MA, 3 day high/low, last price about 20 day MA, 3 week high/low and 3 month high/low. Marketclub also has an interesting trade triangle system that gives you entry and exit points.

    So I bought 13 stocks on Monday that all had sufficient volume and scores of +100. Some I didn't even know what they produced. The miners I bought were Endeavor, Minefinders and Sandstorm. I decided that I would sell anything that went below a score of +85, or had a loss of over 10%. I got stopped out on one stock on Monday. I sold everything else this morning for a 4% profit.

    I have to admit to myself that I am a very emotional trader. With this system I can buy and sell and take losses and gains without beating myself up about it.

    By the way, both Silver Wheaton and Great Panther have scores of -70. I won't touch them again until those scores hit +100 on Marketclub.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Save_Am

    Those gold Buffs come straight from the mint in those plastic sheets. No worries there.

    Mammoth

    I didn't mean to imply that the smoothies had to be dumped immediately. It's still silver. No sense flipping this stuff. Just toss all the smoothies into a separate ziploc bag and save them until you see something you want to swap them for. Some gold maybe?

    Xty

    Not sure what qualifies as ancient for you but Saints will all be between 1907 and 1932.

    I also ordered a sample pack of the other canned meats that the place had. Going to try the canned beef first thing. I'm fantasizing that it will be just like the stuff my folks made when I was a kid. All the canned beef that is in the supermarkets has some tomato paste in it, which totally screws it up as far as I'm concerned. This stuff is just beef, salt, and pepper. Just like Mom's. Fingers crossed.

    ReplyDelete
  34. California Lawyer - man you sound like DPH and me. I think the endgame is indeed some form of world currency, and it will be mostly digital as you say. I think they will pretend it is gold based, but they will vault the gold themselves. In my more paranoid visions they want all transactions digitized so that they can track your spending and behaviour. I don't mean to imply that the fall in the dollar is exactly deliberate - but the situation the US is in is untenable. The dollar cannot be the world reserve currency because it is backed by a promise that has been broken. It was crazy that it even lasted this long. I am deeply sorry that this has happened to the US, the inevitable slide into voting yourself the public purse compounded by truly immoral leaders. I was going to say the worst, but then I remembered Caligula and fixed my wording.

    ReplyDelete
  35. Not sure what to say about the dead cat bounce.

    Obviously a sad story, but then when I realize TF is using such a tragic/bizarre situation into A PO$X analogy I'm almost laughing and feeling "really" conflicted for wanting to.
    Way to go TF for just being you. Love the unique aspect of all of it. Still conflicted though. You win! Total mind play successfully executed.

    Wow, WTF happened to SLW at the end there. Someone please fill me in.

    My cable and computer have been down since 11:00 a.m. from high winds etc.
    I am so glad I didn't have to execute any trades because I would have had trouble breathing and probably fallen off my computer chair and did a dead DPH bounce :-(
    (See, how conflicted you have me TF:-)

    Well, there is two ways of looking at the SLW thing. Someone either got ahold of the SLW qtrly report ahead of time and it sucks or some massive short position was established or some type of algo limit was reached and it massively dove. IDK. Please shed some light if possible, anyone.

    The computer came on and my eye's bulged and I see no corresponding Ag plummet during the day for that to have happened.
    I'm guessing a bunch of SLW holders got real nervous and just dumped it or some large positions were dumped.
    Anyway, glad to be back on-line...I think.

    Way to go TF, way to go ;-)

    ReplyDelete
  36. Everyone:

    Silver Eagles @ spot +$2.99!

    Tulving has opened Silver Eagle monster boxes for spot +$2.99. Pretty sure this is the best price you can find on the net. These will not last long.

    http://www.tulving.com/goldbull.html

    I just bought one. If silver goes down tonight/tomorrow/next week, I don't care. I'm getting very close to my physical accumulation goal.

    ReplyDelete
  37. Insight asks…
    “Are Turd and Mammoth suggesting this is THE last chance to buy?”
    - - - - - - - - - -
    I can only speak for myself, and in NO way am I saying this is the last opportunity to buy. The point of my post was only to state that, as far as buying ‘junk silver’ is concerned, I believe it is still worthwhile to accumulate.

    But this is only my own opinion and am not intending to advise someone what to do with their fiat. Every individual needs to decide for themselves how to invest.
    -----------------------
    BTW, in my 4:50 p.m. post, “prood” should be “proof.”
    (I avoid prudes whenever possible…)

    -Mammoth

    ReplyDelete
  38. Eric - when I first heard of canned beef (here - at this most eclectic information source) I thought it would be disgusting. But when I realized you cooked it in the jars with no strange preservatives or ingredients my mind boggled at the possibilities. We love to sail, and provisioning the boat is a fun but challenging job. Now I am thinking spaghetti sauce and stew and bacon for breakfast - all sorts of things that I associate with fridges or having to buy commercially prepared stuff. I love cooking and this is such an obvious way to expand the repertoire. And 1907 is what I meant by ancient - I was just being hyperbolic out of excitement.

    ReplyDelete
  39. Fully intend to dump my last dribs and drabs of SLW tomorrow. And, even though they didn't have a horrible day, CDE and PAAS are going too. These stocks are big and liquid enough for the powers of darkness to short in size, and I think that's what's going on.

    ReplyDelete
  40. It looks like a lot of 1 for 1 swaps on the Netdania 1min Chart for silver right now.

    ReplyDelete
  41. I wish whomever said they were trading the forex during this time was here - I can't understand how that could be the case, when the prices don't move in a normal way. We started to discuss the hours when it was open, and despite finding a detailed calendar, this part was not worked out. I am merely curious - it doesn't seem to make sense, and I don't like that.

    Paul Bain - I hope you are just busy, and haven't been put off - I enjoy your conversation.

    ReplyDelete
  42. @Insight

    If you are buying physical with a long term outlook, then buy now. If you are concerned about a dip, you could buy some next week and some later.

    Here is my story. I have been buying physical silver since 2006....and my timing stinks. I watch silver climb until it becomes irresistible...then I buy and it dips, sometimes for a LONG time.

    Here's the bottom line, Once I buy it I think in terms of OUNCES of silver, not the fiat equivalent. I have NEVER sold an ounce.

    Looking back, did my bad timing matter more than NOT buying at all....HELL NO!!!!

    Did I miss the fiat....HELL NO!!!!

    What WILL matter when the fiat music stops and everyone is looking for a chair....you'll have your silver chair.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Is anyone else watching this action right now on the one minute charts?! It's nucking futs.

    ReplyDelete
  44. I think we as a community need to develop a certain etiquette for questions we ask our esteemed leader.

    As people gain success through Turd's advice, I am seeing more and more "when's my next entry point" "what's tomorrow's action" style questions being fired at him.

    I don't think Turd developed this site for us to become mindlessly dependent on his trading advice. On the contrary, I would submit it has been developed this place to encourage people to think for themselves, share ideas with one another, and so on.

    And if Turd wants to publish his daily thoughts, that is a GIFT of knowledge to us all. Something we should remember because I see a few hints that "gift" is now being almost expected as "obligation."

    Just something to keep in mind.

    ReplyDelete
  45. DPH

    I really don't know what to make of SLW. Massive volume today didn't really start kicking in til this afternoon. Got to be some big whales selling, and you're right, they usually know something the rest of us don't know. Maybe insiders selling?

    I'm still suspicious of the sudden departure without explanation of the CEO, tho he is still on the BoD.

    Other factors to consider,,,perhaps the miners are putting pressure on to renegociate contracts that pay them $4 oz., most of which were written when Ag was in single digits? Lefty candidates making noise of nationalization of mines in S America? Strikes in Mexico, Bolivia spooking funds holding the stock? Heavy shorting by some entity building a position to buyout? Hopefully it's nothing more than TPTB up to their old tricks and they will soon run out of steam.

    Maybe I'm getting carried away and letting my imagination run wild, but sure seems like something isn't right.

    ReplyDelete
  46. For the record, my oilsands did better than my miners today. There's more than one way to skin this cat. Oops, sorry turd.

    ReplyDelete
  47. Justin - this is the mystery I want to solve. Something strange goes on between 5:15 and 6:00 pm and the prices of silver and gold oscillate between two close prices. But as per my comment above, someone said they could trade during that time period. I wondered in the past if it was a moment of clearing trades somehow, but I cannot find an answer. Anyone? There are lots of you here who trade the Forex - what's going on?

    ReplyDelete
  48. Appreciate your words Turd! You are a GOOD MAN ..

    What's yall's thoughts on Canadian Maples instead of Silver Eagles?

    ReplyDelete
  49. INTL

    Maples are a perfectly fine coin by any measure.

    ReplyDelete
  50. These are dark times, there is no denying.

    I trade forex (xagusd) and closed all of my positions at today's high.

    I will need to see a correction or stable resistance before i enter the game again.

    ReplyDelete
  51. INTL, Usually I buy whatever is cheaper. I think if you live in the US, Eagles may be an advantage.

    ReplyDelete
  52. Eric,
    No worries on the smoothies; its just in thinking about the possibility of buyers becoming picky at some later point in time, then now may be a good time to get rid of them since buyers seem to be grabbing whatever they can find right now.

    But then again, perhaps I will wait until my third 5-gallon bucket is filled with Silver…
    -----------------------
    Alchemy: Converting horse manure into Silver.
    Picked this year’s first radishes yesterday. (Not bad for being as far north as the Puget Sound region!) So while converting horse turds into food is not too difficult, converting enough of the stuff into food in order to have enough food to sell – and then convert the money into Silver – remains the challenge.

    Once the broccoli & cauliflower are coming in, I may – just for the heck of it – post a Craigslist ad offering, say, a head of broccoli in exchange for a Silver dime.

    Then again, back in 1964, broccoli probably only cost ten cents. Something to think about…

    -Mammoth

    ReplyDelete
  53. Maples are beautiful - and much, much, much nicer than Eagles. And the Senators would have won the Stanley Cup if we hadn't traded Mike Fisher. I knew as soon as he started dating Carrie Underwood that we were doomed. Not that I had any inappropriate mum-crush on the guy or anything.

    Apples - and people should refrain from asking questions that have pretty much been answered in his posts - he gives fairly precise calls, and tells us what he is doing himself. The rest is up to us.

    ReplyDelete
  54. Just catching up a bit.
    CA Lawyer & XTY...WE do think alot alike thats for sure . To expand on the plastic debit card concept a bit backed by "virtual" gold that we will never be able to see (i.e. GLD, SLV, Fort Knox) etc.
    If they go to a debit card type thing they will be able to tax everyone, at every turn, for every purchase no matter where they might be at all times. Think about that one. They will be able to keep track of you just by your purchases.
    They could turn the spigot on and off whenever they want. Imagine not having any access to any cash/plastic? Try calling your bank or credit card company then.
    Who would you call, the Fed. or Treasury? Sorry.

    I also have no time to look at the paper because it's so slanted and largely under reported to make it palatable. It's a diversion from all the facts and consequences of the truth. So Matrix like but not in the movie sense. Our perception is being managed. Thats what I think. Not a conspiracy kook over here but it's obvious something is being managed for the less focused in society who prefer not to care about the big issue's, or who can't conceive of them.

    CA...your spot on. Our military is so massive (Luckily, better then the opposite) that no matter how hard things get in this country it is not going to roll over anytime soon.
    I offer the opposite view and it might not be obvious to some, but we are doing what great powers do that are starting to struggle and decline.
    We go friggin' apeshit on anyone who gives us a hard time because "we can".
    Picture a formerly rich bully who also happens to be a muscle bound bad ass.
    Take the money away and that bully is in a really bad mood and you better watch out if you get in his way. He'll take what he needs or wants. Desperation does that to people/countries.
    Just look at how Trump is starting to talk about the spoils of war etc. Can't say he is wrong either as we have just given it away whenever we can to be perceived as nice and likeable. It hasn't worked.
    We're evolving into something much different at the moment and it's hard for alot of people to see and to accept.
    It is happenening, and we've just begun.

    Now, what about SLW?

    ReplyDelete
  55. Btw:

    You can clearly see a wedge pattern :
    http://root.oinks.be/silver_wedge.png

    It's not going to breakout on the upside, but it clearly shows that even getting to 45.52 will be a stretch... Prepare for a correction

    ReplyDelete
  56. Eric#1...Kind of picturing you holding your belly, grinning like a Chesire cat, surronded by tin cans, and burping up bacon.

    Am I close?

    ReplyDelete
  57. ya gotta listen to this yahoo...I don't know what crawled up inside and died in this dude...but he's got to be full of it at this juncture in silver...respond please with your opinions


    http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/macke-purple-crayon-ride-silver-bubble-20110418-072437-794.html%20%20%20?sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode

    ReplyDelete
  58. Interesting article regarding Chinese and Comex:
    ------------------------------------------------

    Analysts say the Chinese have indulged in long buying silver on the Comex, while simultaneously shorting silver on the exchange; taking delivery and settling those contracts in cash. Even if they took a loss on all their shorts, they would still be steadily accumulating physical metal. So even though they may be acquiring the physical silver at a higher than market price, they can still prevent panic behaviour on the Comex.

    ----------------------------------------------
    The link:

    http://gulfnews.com/business/markets/silver-is-the-new-safe-haven-in-china-1.796152

    What does the hive mind think?

    ReplyDelete
  59. Finally finished listening to Scot's interview from this morning.

    http://wmbr.org/m3u/The_Real_News_20110420_0700.m3u

    Good work on getting the word out, props for showing the younger crowd that they can take control of their future.

    ReplyDelete
  60. Sam - how can you be so sure it will not break up? I did not comment on your first prediction, but now that you repeat it, will you please explain your reasoning?

    ReplyDelete
  61. @timpa

    That guy is hilarious. Sound advice imo

    ReplyDelete
  62. From the Market Ticker:

    http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=184595

    Rumor: China To Revalue Yuan 10% This Weekend?

    Just stated on CNBC.

    I have no way to judge that, but if it comes it is both good and bad.

    The good: It's about a third of what has to happen, and as a step function it would apply major cooling to the "Chinese miracle" inflation machine. They need to do that too, which makes the rumor plausible. Coming on a long trading weekend here (Good Friday/Passover closes us this week) and on a weekend anyway (China's favored time to do this sort of thing) it would be appropriate both in terms of timing and event.

    The bad: While there would be no direct dollar impact from this action since the Yuan is not convertible and thus not part of the $DXY index the indirect effects would be tremendously disruptive in the short term. This has a high probability of forcing corrective actions by The Fed, perhaps even before the futures market reopens Sunday night. The risk for The Fed and United States is that the dollar winds up gapping down by hundreds of pips, perhaps threatening the all-time low. Violation of the all-time low could result in massive pressing of short bets and a possible immediate fiscal crisis.

    Please don't take this article the wrong way - I strongly support a Chinese action such as this, even though it's not enough on its own. The move in the dollar today may be related to this rumor and expectation of action over the weekend.

    Beware coming into the weekend with this rumor out there; volatility is, in my opinion, radically cheap against reality and the complacency being displayed by the market is flat-out ridiculous.

    ReplyDelete
  63. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  64. CA Lawyer & others...Did you happen to catch this a few days ago?

    http://www.oftwominds.com/blogapril11/setup-con-of-decade4-11.html

    I might sound a bit extreme at times, but there is something going on and we all can see it and feel it and know that it exists.
    Is this article that far-fetched?
    Something has dramatically shifted in this country/world. It's obvious. Just look at what we are doing on this web site and why that might be. We're in the moment.
    I'm willing to bet that our enemies are looking at us and a little bit concerned not so much by our debt but what our reactions might be as we go through this. There is a reason why Russia etc. want to see us disarm as much as possible.

    I can remember about 15-20 years ago reading in the papar one of those small Govt./White House/Military type articles that would normally go unnoticed by the MSM. Maybe it was blatant propoganda or a moment of truth slipped into the pages for our enemies consumption or who knows what.

    It was about a Pentagon official (anonymous of course)who was talking about U.S. strategic policy planning for the next 50 years and laying it right out in the open.
    He stated something to the effect that going forward the U.S. policy would not be one of deterrent but that of unpredictibility.
    Roll that one around for awhile.
    In order to ensure the strength and strategic edge over anyone who might challenge us, our policy would be to act in a unpredictible manner to basically scare our enemies because we might just do anything, period.
    Basically a not-so-veiled threat.
    Think about the desperate bully analogy and having the means to follow through if provoked.
    Strange times indeed.

    ReplyDelete
  65. Xty: Well my first predition did work out perfectly :)

    If you look at the charts you can clearly see that we are overdue for a 10% correction. It could be now, or not ...

    But it's going to leave that wedge and i don't want to be on the wrong side... Better safe then sorry.

    ReplyDelete
  66. http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:rising_wedge_reversa

    ReplyDelete
  67. @Sam
    10% correction would take us down to $40.50 roughly. What a wonderful time to buy - XAG for trade and physical for holding. I hope you're even only half right, 5% discount would give me the smiles for the next 2 wks :)

    verification: grins (I kid you not!)

    ReplyDelete
  68. @Palin: I have no real long positions, i get in/out all the time for profit taking, and since i go leveraged i cannot take a 5$ dip :/ so for me this is a big deal... But i will be buying at the dip .. Thats for sure :)

    ReplyDelete
  69. A 10% dip would have me downtown Toronto picking up phys. I don't have enough yet.

    And I've gotten out of enough paper that I can ride that out or buy in. Just might make this price action over that last 2 weeks seem more real too.

    ReplyDelete
  70. xty/dph

    Canned Beef report (all others scroll on by)

    Well, we tried the canned beef first as explained in my post above to xty. First impression was "meh, just ok", but then Mrs. Eric#1 and I remembered that our home canned beef as kids had a tremendous amount of black pepper in it, so we peppered it up. Upgraded to "just ok, plus", but still it seems there's a textural thing that wasn't right. Bottom line though was that we both went back for seconds and were scraping the kettle, so that means something right there. Would I buy more? I'll try the others first (pork, turkey, etc.) and then decide, but I'm thinking maybe yes. But really it just makes me want to get a canner and do it myself.

    http://www.pleasanthillgrain.com/canned_meat_canned_chicken_canned_turkey_canned_beef.aspx

    ReplyDelete
  71. Christine

    Just my opinion but, both Trader Dan and Turd have pointed out the fact that some funds are trading a spread that pits the miners against the spot price. Don't ask me to explain it, but I get that it syphons $$ out of the mining shares. Also, both of them have mentioned that the easy availability of PM ETF's also diverts $$ away from the miners, which would have been bigger beneficiaries of the bull market in the past.

    Just my .02

    ReplyDelete
  72. Hey Robert Leroy Parker...how can it be hilarious and be sound advice at the same time...we're not being facetious are we?

    ReplyDelete
  73. Turd,

    thanks for your great guidance on oil, again! Amd silver, of course.

    I think you may have the wrong chart up on the top right hand corner (maybe old contract?)

    ReplyDelete
  74. DPH

    yes I did read that article. I am still thinking about it. Sure seems plausible though.

    ReplyDelete
  75. This is a quick little read that cuts right to the chase. I'm not even going to go into the fact that I used the phase that silver is gold on steroids right here on this blog about a week ago!

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/8458686/We-view-silver-as-gold-on-steroids.html

    ReplyDelete
  76. While most of you guys are taking profit from silver this week, I hope you go down to the coin shop with a little profit and buy a few ounces of physical .

    Because only God, (and maybe the turd) knows when the freaking hammer drops, and the dollar falls , all your going to have is what you have in your possession. all you'll see are signs that say closed until further notice, bread line is on your left.Have a nice day!

    Plus you have the added bonus of driving up the price of physical!When you go to buy it you might find the cupboard is bare.(musical chairs?)

    We might have one or maybe two years left , then again, could be much sooner. Physical could be 100 bucks by Dec.

    protect yourself and drive the price up while your on break waiting for the correction.

    ReplyDelete
  77. @F
    Well said. I'm now in a habit of ordering physical from Provident every Monday morning, right after the EE raid :)

    ReplyDelete
  78. Great Bob Chapman interview at SGTReport:

    http://sgtreport.com/2011/04/sgtbull-talks-to-bob-chapman-of-theinternationalforecaster-com/#more-1597

    ReplyDelete
  79. Ted Butler thinks JPMorgan has started covering its short position in silver. He says he will know more when the new COT is released on Friday. (Not sure if he's correct about Friday release day, given that it's Good Friday)

    ReplyDelete
  80. Turdle,
    Where did you read about Ted Butler?

    ReplyDelete
  81. Good morning Titus. That's me bidding up gold and silver and oil...
    Just kidding, but someone is doing so.

    ReplyDelete
  82. @Xty - re: your earlier question of the limbo between 5:15 - 6M EST, the Globex closes for the afternoon until the 6PM start of the overnight session. This is the only 45 minutes when there is no silver market open globally. See:
    http://www.kitcosilver.com/charts.html

    ReplyDelete
  83. Titus,
    in his newsletter today. As I've explained before, I won't copy and paste his stuff. It costs $35 a month.
    www.butlerresearch.com

    ReplyDelete
  84. Thank you Kiwi & Xty .......I'll let you know when I lose it all.

    :D

    ReplyDelete
  85. Turdle,
    Got it. I have Bob Chapman's, but not Ted Butler's. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  86. CD - that is what I thought - but I guess the person who posted was trading something else, but it surprised me. I had looked at a Forex calendar, but oddly it still seemed unclear. I wonder what sets the pair of prices during that time. It used to oscillate over a greater spread and lately it has tightened up. As I say, just curious because it is so unusual looking on the chart.

    Titus - I should have guessed it was you - great spike - I hope it is a harbinger of things to come.

    Eric - but if you had used the beef as the base of a stew? I think the answer is going to lie in home canning. But the bacon sounds like a pretty good price too, so I will be expecting a report after breakfast tomorrow. You can prepare for the coming hardship by packing on 15 extra pounds to carry you through a lean year.

    ReplyDelete
  87. Turd's anthem being performed on American Idol right now.

    ReplyDelete
  88. Borte the mine web arctical very good. Robert Leroy Parker how did you post clickable link on your last post?

    ReplyDelete
  89. I'm long the Comex paper gold. I'm out of the paper silver -- just have my physical silver position.

    I'm agreeing with Trader Dan and I don't think I'm going to try to play Comex paper silver unless there is a pullback and support levels I can trust.

    It's now peddle to the metal on finishing my physical silver position.

    ReplyDelete
  90. I see the Asian market is looking up.
    Hope this continues all night:-)

    ReplyDelete
  91. @timpa

    Sound advice in that he recommends scaling in. Hilarious in his delivery about price chasing.

    ReplyDelete
  92. If we get the dip to low 42's, any thoughts on what might be the better play with calls, SLV or SLW (due to the beating its taken)? Or are most of you holding your ammo to next week?

    ReplyDelete
  93. Cool..From ZH

    25% Of Scotia Mocatta's Silver Transferred From "Registered" To "Eligible" Status: A 45% Reduction In "Physical"

    ReplyDelete
  94. DPH - yeah, a nice breath of fresh air into the markets - starting off enthusiastically. This really is a bright side to an otherwise repellent situation. I have become so cynical and disengaged from the political process and in so much despair about ever being able to effect change that it is very refreshing to have literally found a silver lining amongst all this crap. My brother used to say that a diamond in a dung heap was still a diamond (meaning if advice is good it doesn't matter if it comes from your enemy and don't cut off your nose to spite your face). And here we find a turd in a dung hill and a silver lining in a turd. Wouldn't believe it in a novel.

    I can actually imagine Bernanke exploding like a robot during his press conferences. I swear nothing could surprise me anymore, not even finding out he was a robot.

    ReplyDelete
  95. @Johnny Larue

    with html

    For links, do the following code:

    (a href="http://bullshitlinkgoeshere.com")YOUR LINK TITLE HERE(/a)

    But replace all "(" with "<" and ")" with ">"

    ReplyDelete
  96. POSX 74.27 and falling. Getting near Turd's key level of 74.21.

    ReplyDelete
  97. Robert Leroy Parker said: Sound advice in that he recommends scaling in. Hilarious in his delivery about price chasing.

    Robert my feeling too, just wanted your insight...

    ReplyDelete
  98. EUR surging.

    POSX in the toilet.

    ReplyDelete
  99. Much4Him..where are you getting the real time us$ index readings from...I'm tracking INO and it is slow tonight

    ReplyDelete
  100. Classic XTY...LMAO! :-)

    "I can actually imagine Bernanke exploding like a robot during his press conferences. I swear nothing could surprise me anymore, not even finding out he was a robot."


    Your awesome!

    ReplyDelete
  101. RIP furry furry cat.

    RIP USD as well.

    ReplyDelete
  102. Added to my silver cache last week by purchasing some eagles. Had my eye on them for a while but the premiums are murder! Only got to buy half of the amount because they were out of them in the coin shop.

    So I had cash in hand for more silver when I got an email informing me that the America The Beautiful Bullion I requested months ago were now ready to deliver. Was surprised to pay only $969.95 (including shipping) for five 5oz beauties. That was over $1 LESS then spot silver that day :-) Bless you APMEX!

    Hat tip to CA-Law! I'll be up your way next week for a hike to Seeley Creek Falls in Crestline. I hope the ticks don't feast on me like they did 2 days ago in Indian Flats!!! But I did find a shiny quartz crystal and some tourmaline in the creek!

    *** For the Hardcore preppers out there, don't forget to add a couple of Conibear traps to your wishlist. Snaring rabbits with fishing line is an interesting theory but a solid trap will net you everything from muskrats to ducks.

    Here's wishing everyone in the TurdCrib a mahhhvelous and fruitful week!

    ReplyDelete
  103. I've been wondering.

    Is this a Bos, "We know something you don't." silver surge?

    Or

    Is this a retail buyer, follow the crowd, "look Mommy it's shiny" silver surge?

    Who's the dominant buyer here?

    Are the retail buyers about to get their collective heads ripped off..... Or is the dollar going to be worth about 50% less in a month.

    Just what the Hell is going on here?

    ReplyDelete
  104. I think this S&P thing and the PO$X recognition is starting to take hold in the other markets.
    Something big is brewing here by the looks of it.

    The newscycle has really started to pick up on this whole POS$ destruction. It's being talked about on every channel I flip through and in lots of online articles.
    I do believe it's gone mainstream and is being accepted as inevitible and unstoppable.

    We ain;t seen nothun' yet!

    ReplyDelete
  105. Ahem,excuse me.. the PO$X...just to clarify and not do TF any injustice. That's his baby!

    ReplyDelete
  106. Lumpy,

    It could just be a "let's let gold hit a new high so we have a chance to paint an outside reversal day after we smash it down".

    Just saying. I think Turd could be right about the possibility of getting a heavy raid.

    Dollar could definitely be rescued at some point.

    ReplyDelete
  107. @ artic fox

    just the kitco USDX Turd provides us in the right hand column. Hit F5 to refresh for real time.

    ReplyDelete
  108. I don't get selling 1500 June gold calls but keeping 1550 ones.

    I didn't lighten up my options today but I expect to tomorrow. For once I did not get squirrelly when a sell-off came and so far I'm being rewarded. The only thing I could have done better is, instead of looking slack-jawed at the computer screen as silver shot past $45 would have been to quickly buy some SLV puts. It seems like those round number spikes always end the same way.

    Who is buying puts or some other short instrument tomorrow (e.g., ZSL)?

    ReplyDelete
  109. DPH

    You asked about the new $100 a few days back. If you haven't seen this video you'll probably find it pretty damn funny.

    http://dailybail.com/home/watch-jon-stewart-expose-bernankes-lies-from-60-minutes-the.html

    ReplyDelete
  110. Anyone here thinking that if this PO$X move is for real, that the short covering in the SLV is going to be absolutely spectacular!?

    ReplyDelete
  111. lumpy,

    On the one side you have BoS (China, Russia, India, etc.) with trillions of $ of reserves that they want to swap into real things like PMs.

    On the other you have a small minority of, mostly, not very rich people buying coins here and there.

    So, I say BoS is dominant on the buy side.

    But, don't underestimate the price impact of the unwinding of decades of manipulative shorting of silver by JPM and cronies. All the BoS needs to do is keep price moving up steadily, as the short covering will add impetus, or is already doing so (we don't know for sure yet).

    As the BoS won't be selling any time soon (or maybe ever), who are the sellers now?

    That's not to say that we won't get a 10% or 20% pullback at any given time. That's why traders need to be very nimble and physical buyers need the occasional drink, coffee, or whatever, to hold on and not stress out.

    ReplyDelete
  112. i think a big chunk of the buying is hedge fund driven. it makes the most sense.

    the macro guys get it, the momo guys get it, the event driven guys get it, even some of the fundamental guys might even get it. i think the big surges come from them. hedge fund assets topped $2 trillion this year.

    ReplyDelete
  113. The dollar could be rescued. Wonder who out there is negotiating the price of that?

    word ver: dingrabl

    When Bernake talks it sounds like dingrabl to me

    ReplyDelete
  114. Much4Him..kitco's site is tracking higher for some reason..

    ReplyDelete
  115. PHANTOM: I would be indebted to you if you took some time to eloborate further on yr comment:
    "Anyone here thinking that if this PO$X move is for real, that the short covering in the SLV is going to be absolutely spectacular!?"

    With appreciation

    ReplyDelete
  116. Titus,

    Gold being raided. Maybe very short term.

    Dollar being rescued? I believe me I'm not trying to be a smart ass here. There is nothing that will rescue the dollar.

    It's been over for the dollar for years now. There is not a plausible solution for a $14 plus Trillion dollar debt. None.

    We can kick the can for only so long before it will be obvious to all that we are SO FKD.

    ReplyDelete
  117. @Xaritas

    Turd's $1500 calls are substantially more valuable than his $1550s. He is taking risk off the table into what he expects will be a sell off.

    Regarding hedging, I have had success lately with PAL puts as a hedge.

    ReplyDelete
  118. sp,

    have you heard of any big hedge fund taking a position in silver? I haven't, but am looking forward to that day. I feel it hard to believe that Paulson and others are all over gold but apparently oblivious to silver.

    ReplyDelete
  119. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  120. Food for thought.

    The last vertical drop in silver is around 10 AM , $1.10. And the drop a couple days ago is also around $1.10. That's 2.5% correction. I would be surprised if EE can take it down 10%. Maybe a one time 5%. Or a series of 2.5% drop.

    I also see on 30 min/weekly chart, there are supports at $44.6. $44.1, and $43.4.

    ReplyDelete
  121. Here is a very relevant interview of David Galland. Why PMs might correct in the summer and what that has to do with QE2,3

    http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig10/galland25.1.html

    ReplyDelete
  122. @paulindoon

    There seems to be a massive short position in the SLV.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/slv-now-hard-borrow-goldman

    ReplyDelete
  123. Silver is testing $45.50 right now.

    ReplyDelete
  124. silver and gold just took out the overnight (US time) highs. go you good things!

    ReplyDelete
  125. Turdle,

    I'm thinking the Bos still rule the day for now. When the little people do their thing, our thing, it will be shocking to behold.

    ReplyDelete
  126. Um - things are flying - holy cow - lumpy I don't see your raid. This is looking distinctly disorderly.

    DPH - Glad to be of service. (Speaking of all time favourite robots.)

    ReplyDelete
  127. Thnx Phantom.
    So if true, the talk earlier re an uncoming COMEX margin hike might come about.

    From Phantom's link to ZH: "Comex margin hike imminent now that it is impossible to short the largest silver ETF in the world."

    ReplyDelete
  128. Understatement of the year, right there: we ain't seen nothing yet.

    Just watched the vid "timpa" posted with Mr Clean from CNBS or Marketloss or whereeverthefuck it was posted. I didn't realize they could stack shit that high for television, hmmpf.

    Nevermind, it was Yahoo Finance. Good Lord!

    ReplyDelete
  129. xty said:
    "You can prepare for the coming hardship by packing on 15 extra pounds to carry you through a lean year."

    LOL, then I think maybe i'm already good for 2 or 3 years as is.

    ReplyDelete
  130. wow prob posted already but:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/45-scotia-mocattas-registered-silver-transferred-eligible-status

    ReplyDelete
  131. xty

    I was responding to Titus. I don't see a raid coming in gold, and if so ..short term.

    ReplyDelete
  132. Jesus, the Dollar looks appalling right now.

    ReplyDelete
  133. What in the name of.... Im suddenly glad i kept half my position in silver but jeez.

    ReplyDelete
  134. As before, if you are waiting for the dip, you already missed it.

    ReplyDelete
  135. xty

    What I did was add a little water and soup base to stretch the liquid volume, and then just put it over noodles. Pretty much like I did when I was a kid. Mrs. E said they always thickened it for gravy and put it over mashed potatoes. (Ours was a noodle family, hers a potato family. A mixed marriage) As a stew would have been fine too. Maybe better because the busier the dish, the less you'd be concerned about some of the texture issues with the meat. I'm suddenly thinking it might be good just on toast. The crunch would change things up.

    Yes, I'll report on the bacon after breakfast.

    ReplyDelete
  136. TurdleGG...I agree with you about the BRIC's exchanging U$D for PM's or anything else of value ASAP.
    If I were them that's what I would be doing. It's going to accelerate soon with this debt ceiling issue about to go center stage once we get into May. It's going to get ugly.

    ReplyDelete
  137. Turd and others have highlighted the downside risks of low liquidity over the next few days.

    But, if there's determined buyers out there, there's a flipside that is also possible.

    ReplyDelete
  138. Silver roll program at 45.60
    Second stage ignite at 45.60
    Now at 45.80!

    Word verify - COT C L (COT See LoL)

    ReplyDelete
  139. I'm seriously thinking about cashing out my 401k. This shit is getting nuts. My stomach felt like a rollercoaster at work today reading ZH, Turd, and all the others. I don't think I can handle this paper game anymore.

    I talked to a good friend of mine, he's willing to spend $1k on silver. I don't have a warehouse full of cash so my plan is to rally up as many friends and buy as much in bulk going forward.

    One more thing about the new "digital currency." If they implement this there will be a rebellion in this country. Jim Sinclair I think makes a better case that it would be digital with a non-convertible gold backing. It restores confidence in the currency (for the time being imo) just like how Germany unveiled a real estate backed currency during Weimar inflation. Food for thought.

    ReplyDelete
  140. Stop! Stop! I need a close of $45.82 tomorrow for the coveted Yellow Hat!

    ReplyDelete
  141. Has anyone but me had problem's getting Harvey's reports the last two nights. I keep getting March 31st reports.

    ReplyDelete
  142. Need to clarify: I think ANY digital currency won't work/cause rebellions/black markets et al. But Sinclair might be on to something that the sheeple would be comfortable with. By god I hope not.

    ReplyDelete
  143. IF the bulls are out in full force, the light holiday schedule will be enough for a push to $50. Silver is fast closing in on my Yellow Hat target!

    ReplyDelete
  144. I see we have a new Crude index widget or whatever.
    Very nice TF and it's current.
    At this rate the dollar won't hold $74 for long.
    I mean, just look at it :-P
    Crude is leading the way but the PO$X is bringing up the rear...go ahead, make some Turd comments.
    I won't.

    ReplyDelete
  145. thecoloredsky...But will they actually show us or prove the gold is actually there to back it?

    ReplyDelete
  146. check the update. Turd depressed.

    ReplyDelete
  147. afrum said...

    About dumping PSLV - one thought next time is to place a very close trailing stop loss - like 5-8% - GTC. I do this and more than half the time I am rewarded and the stock continues to rise - So far gained more than the the amount lost when stopped out.

    ReplyDelete
  148. DPH thats what I mean! For discussions' sake, the sheeple will be comfortable with it if they are told its backed by gold. Certainly, it can't be and thus begins a new era of ponzi from ground zero.

    Oh Timpa, that Yahoo video link you posted almost made me throw up listening to that guy. Words can't describe how stupid he sounded.

    ReplyDelete
  149. TF, thanks again for the continued great posts. Purchased more physical this morning & will definitely feed the Turd.

    coloredsky, I'll be cashing out my RRSP's next week here in Canada & buying more physical. Should've done this a while back & likely the tax hit is what kept me back but no longer. I figure there's some investments in miners & some minor trading & that's enough risk on my end. I've purchased physical, will buy some more & watch mostly from the sidelines.

    ReplyDelete
  150. Turd, should have kept the faith in your 45.81 call for tomorrow.

    I felt a little sick after missing the top today and took the dip for a ride, but held on, and watched the FUBM form up. I plan on closing out my SLV May calls in the morning and sitting on the sidelines for the weekend.

    ReplyDelete
  151. sometimes Turd is wrong to the upside

    so sue me!

    ReplyDelete
  152. I just got approved for a chase visa card with 0% interest on purchases for 21 months. The only downside is it's only for 5k. Hopefully they'll up the limit as soon as I max it out and make a few payments. I'll be doing some shopping at Gainesville coins or Apmex in a few days when it's in my hand.

    ReplyDelete
  153. Perspective check for those on the bench with me: better to miss some gain than to lose, right? Sitting on the sidelines watching a vertical line move up sucks, but I'm OK with my clearout at 45.3. Of course, check back in the AM after asia's done it's business and silver is at 50 and i might feel differently. :) Just don't go on tilt, everyone. OK?

    *wow. word check "lation". as in not quite elation. thanks, google.

    ReplyDelete
  154. Turd,
    Saw your update. Bird in hand is better than two in a bush !!!

    ReplyDelete
  155. I dont have any proof of it , But for some reason I belive Hedge funds are forbidden to put more than x amount into metals.

    Im pretty sure it was Warren Buffet who purchased a large amount of metals in 2000, and sold it at a small/loss/gain?.

    The word was they didnt want him holding that much.

    So I belive there may have been some regulations drawn up to prevent the cornering of the silver market by massive hedge funds.

    I dont know that to be true, but I cant see how all of them could have missed this bull run in silver. There must be a hitch to it somewhere.

    ReplyDelete
  156. 45.92! Just let my wife know that I would be spending the night curled up at my workstation.

    ReplyDelete
  157. let's say everybody is right

    and sinclair's angel comes at 1521

    and boom, it's 1650 gold by June and silver is trading at 30 times gold ratio

    1650 gold

    55.00 silver

    June 2011

    everybody's right

    ReplyDelete
  158. Some different thoughts:

    #1. Silver has become an unstoppable awesome force underestimated by EVERYONE. The true story of what is moving silver has yet to be truly discovered/revealed.

    #2. The $1 air pocket, 3 minute correction we had intraday today will become the norm. When a true correction comes, it will be from substantially higher levels and it will be a tsunami. It will NOT be $3 over a 3 or 4 day period. It will be the likes of something truly incredible and may only return us to current levels. 43 1/2 or 42 could easily be a one day event that we snap right back from same day.

    #3. EVERY respected mkt commentator tonight is flat in their trading account waiting for the 3 day $3 correction. Not happening.

    #4. Santa gave some Nostradamus predictions about Euro and gold closing that have now happened. He said expect $100 moves in Gold intra day. WE are standing on the threshold of that happening.

    #5. The shocker? The miners are going to come roaring back. The long metal short miner is a stupid play in a market making this historic move. The algoritm traders and equity mkt pundits still don't give this move the respect it deserves and don't believe it will stick. They have a rude awakening coming.

    #6. Finally, The Morgue and the banksters are finished in this mkt. The best they can do is clip a dollar or two intra day and we come right back and on to new highs. They are truly royally screwed in this mkt and it is the Chinese and a few others that waged war on them, the dollar and US economic policy.

    Stay long, be strong you ain't seen nothing yet.

    ReplyDelete
  159. yeah, i sold May covered calls against my AGQ before the drop this morning.

    watched it happen, could have bought them back $10 less! now i see that i'm probably down at least $6.

    this is the second time that the price has shot up after i've sold covered calls thinking 'of course there will be a correction!'.

    Sad part is I still have faith in the Shorts to try to jam it back down....

    cant win them all... :-)

    ReplyDelete
  160. Rob , I ordered from gainsville a few days ago theres a ten day+ wait for eagles.Apmex is higher but faster

    ReplyDelete
  161. Turd...A hairball analogy..OMG! Your killing me over here.

    So is the PO$X when you look at it and consider whats going on here. It's killing me. No delight that PM's are going up because it's dying.
    I never thought in my life we would have to consider that this nation is getting flushed down the drain anf they are just letting it happen to gain a export advantage and to pay off our debt with cheaper dollars.

    Just like their was a Dark Ages and a Rennisance period and a Golden Age etc.

    What will this period in time be referred to...
    The Age of Denial...The Gluttony....The Age of Shame....possibly the Death of America.....The Great Collapse?

    This is going to get ugly.

    ReplyDelete
  162. Has anyone ever seen this history of the Federal Reserve System? Quite interesting

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKEGxy7xFvM&feature=related

    Its 2 hours but well worth it.

    ReplyDelete
  163. RLP Thank you for your response, I am cognitively embarrassed in matters of code I'll add it to growing list of electronic communication skills I have to learn to become a proficient blogger.:)

    ReplyDelete
  164. atlee:

    +1000!!!

    I can't agree more, without changing the basis of language as we understand it

    This is the big one, the one grandfathers tell their offspring about. I expect to ride this mare, this bucking bronco faced ghost of a horse all the way.

    Call me stupid (you're stupid!), call me misguided, call me what you want. This is the ride of a lifetime.

    And to think there are those who would pay extra for the rough stuff.

    ReplyDelete
  165. Turd, you magnificent son of a b----, you were early on your call by a day!

    My wife thinks I'm a lunatic for buying silver, but I think I just about won her over today, comparing returns. All of the silver "nonsense" was just about double from where we started, while her safe "SP500" was up a couple of percent.

    ReplyDelete
  166. Rule number 1: the trend is your friend.
    Sorry but the trend is a trend for good reasons, almost always.

    ReplyDelete
  167. 46.00 bernake bucks commmme ooooonnnnn baby!!!

    ReplyDelete
  168. Carl: yep!

    a blind hog could load up on acorns in this market

    ReplyDelete
  169. atlee,
    thank you. Now I know why I skim through hundreds of comments looking for yours.

    By the way, is that a picture of you beside your name?

    ReplyDelete
  170. Did anyone miss the James Turk interview? I just ran across it:

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/4/20_James_Turk.html

    ReplyDelete
  171. Watched the video timpa posted. It is sound advice if this is a bubble.

    And sooner or later it will be about a bubble. I think that video is a year or two, or many dollars, too soon though.

    ReplyDelete
  172. Music to collect fiat by.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bV3XUh_alg&feature=related

    ReplyDelete
  173. @ Turdle
    Thank you for the compliment! That is a picture of the greatest rock and roller in history. That is the one and only Mr. Keith Richards of the Rolling Stones and his own band, the expensive winos.

    ReplyDelete
  174. before July 1, 2011

    Gold : 1650 m/l

    Silver: 55.00 m/l

    GtoS Ratio--30 to 1

    ReplyDelete
  175. Turd's prediction has been met

    ReplyDelete
  176. Turd: Taking profit can never be a bad thing.

    ReplyDelete
  177. atlee,
    gotcha. I am going to see Bob Dylan tonight. He is in Melbourne for a few concerts. Thought it might be my last chance, as he's getting on.

    ReplyDelete
  178. If the silver price holds up over night, SLW should at least lose five to eight dollars by 10:30 am.

    ReplyDelete
  179. Kitco's topping. Time to adjust the numbers.

    Guess my $43.43 close call ain't gonna happen.

    ReplyDelete
  180. I just got approved for a chase visa card with 0% interest on purchases for 21 months. The only downside is it's only for 5k. Hopefully they'll up the limit as soon as I max it out and make a few payments. I'll be doing some shopping at Gainesville coins or Apmex in a few days when it's in my hand.

    Too bad you can't default like a banker and ask Uncle Ben for a bailout.

    ReplyDelete
  181. atlee, you da man! You must be related to Turd.

    ReplyDelete
  182. Jack, I like the way you think :)

    ReplyDelete
  183. Atlee: that was one epic post buddy. I thank you for it.

    Good morning everyone!! I trust everyone rested well.

    ReplyDelete