Thursday, April 14, 2011

Stout Silver

I gotta tell ya. This silver is a frickin champ!

With everything else getting the snot kicked out of it this week, silver just keeps rising from the mat. Like a spring, all attempts to suppress it only cause it to rebound as soon as the pressure is lifted. This strong, fundamental demand certainly bodes well for the remainder of this month and my theory that the price action will resemble the action from February. Were it not for Tungstenman's attempts to talk down the entire commodity complex and O'bottom's attempt to talk down the debt, can you imagine where silver would be trading right now?? As it is, it moved back above 41 overnight only to be pushed back by some unusually timed $ strength. The POSX is now rolling over on economic news (big surprise!) and the metals are rebounding. But silver is the champ. It just looks great.

So here's a 30-minute silver chart. Note the higher lows from the bottom on Tuesday, the breakout overnight and then the pullback that stopped right where it should, around 40.60.
Gold isn't doing quite as well but its not doing poorly, either. It has settled into a little range between 1452 and 1465.
And now take a look at the POSX. Recent pattern would suggest that it will come back down nearly as fast as it went up. I would expect this back down near 75 by tomorrow.

Finally, we saw some lousy "claims" numbers this morning. Makes the "QE ending" argument a little tougher to swallow. Also, for the braindead money managers that sold the metals yesterday when they heard that O'bottom was going to propose $4T in debt reduction, I give you this:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703730104576260911986870054.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop
Now granted, its from the WSJ but I have to say that I agree with the article. The president's speech/plan was an absolute farce. The U.S.A. does not have a tax/revenue problem. The U.S.A. has a spending problem. The deficit and debt cannot be controlled by "eliminating waste and abuse" and raising taxes on millionaires. This is nothing but class warfare politics and SPIN. The only hope for the U.S. is that serious leaders will emerge with serious proposals. They then act on their proposals, re-election hopes be damned. Let's just say I'm not expecting this anytime soon.

As I type, we're back to 41 and 1461! Gold and silver are the only green on my board. Again, can you imagine where they'll be by next week when sentiment inevitably shifts again???  TF

p.s. I just noticed that Jim Willie sent this to me overnight. Thought you'd like to see it:


3:14 AM (5 hours ago)
silver is ready to pursue 50
it should come before June 15th easily
my smartest, most connected, most experienced, most successful, most diverse source
    sent me an email unsolicited yesterday
in it he said he expects silver to move past $200 in the next two to three years
by the way, he has not been wrong about any really big paradigm shift issue in his career
you can publish this on your weblog if you wish
I read your dailys all the time
someday I hope to move up to Jackass Turd
/ jim

292 comments:

  1. GPL just reported. Gold production up 45%, Silver up 15%. New Guanajauto mine bringing home the canned bacon.

    Link: http://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/inplay#gpl

    Thoughts? Reactions?

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  2. Off to the races!

    Argento, Baby!

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  3. I picked up my delivery of my 100 KG RCM Gold Maple Leaf coin on Wednesday. It is so awesome! It's bigger than I thought it would be! I really prefer this over the 1oz coins I used to buy earlier.

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  4. Fortuna Silver announcing more good news today. I strongly encourage Turdinistas to own this Peru silver play.

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  5. Turd,
    Thanks for reminding us of the fundamentals as well as your great technical analysis. It's the fundos that can filter out the noise of the fluctuations and keep our heads cool when others are losing theirs.

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  6. Turd, you wrote "The only hope for the U.S. is that serious leaders will emerge with serious proposals. They then act on their proposals, re-election hopes be damned. Let's just say I'm not expecting this anytime soon."

    I think Paul Ryan might just be your guy. He proposed a budget with some very dramatic cuts to all the usual sacred cows, he seems willing to go to the mat for it. Some of those Tea Party folks and a few of the blue dog dems seem like they might be willing to go to the mat for austerity also. Then again I'll believe it when I see it, and everyone knows that no matter what the house does the Senate will not concur nor will Barry sign it.

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  7. So why is GPL still in the basement in pre-market? IDONO!

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  8. Leonard
    Whoa! That sounds awesome! Swing that baby around in a Crown Royal bag!

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  9. Ahhh...the Crown Royal bag talk continues :-)

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  10. Saso,

    You said:
    -----------------
    Why should we buy EGU? Look at the price action.
    They didn't get their permits and if you call them they would tell you that permits are coming in 14 days.

    Those 14 days last 6 months now.

    I know Doody recommends it but buying it now is different than at $3 when he was at a strong buy.
    -----------------

    Yeah I hear you . . . but any and all miners with comparable assets are off 52 wk highs so it's just one of several. That said my idea is that when they get the permit ("WHEN" not "if") price will jump to mid 20's fast.

    As with all my ideas . . . I may be wrong but the other miners don't look like possible 2 to 3 baggers, from current prices, within 6 months.

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  11. SSK - good news, and well-reported!

    DPH - speaking of which, I have just been given the green light by my delightful hubby to buy a gold coin or two and was going to ask Eric to do a quick repost to save my lazy ass and mention the specifics of the pre-1933 beat up coins he was recommending late last night. I want two to jingle against each other in times of angst and joy.

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  12. Thanks for the post Turd. You summed it up nicely. The words "we have a spending problem" will never come out of our president's mouth. How you could not be more sure of the direction of the price of pm's after yesterday.

    However has anyone seen the Monex commercial on Fox Bus Channel advertising that you can buy silver "with as little as 10% down"? That does make me a little nervous, though.

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  13. SLW is simply a disaster the last ten days. Continually underperforming the metal.

    SK

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  14. I think Paul Ryan might just be your guy. He proposed a budget with some very dramatic cuts to all the usual sacred cows, he seems willing to go to the mat for it. Some of those Tea Party folks and a few of the blue dog dems seem like they might be willing to go to the mat for austerity also. Then again I'll believe it when I see it, and everyone knows that no matter what the house does the Senate will not concur nor will Barry sign it.

    -------------

    With all due respect Pablo Ryan is a liar like the rest.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mxUcj4sZvbY&feature=player_embedded

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  15. You guys want someone who will cut spending? Look into Ron Paul. When he announces here soon, its time to take some of the turd profits and send that 2500.00 check into him. He will (try) eliminate the income tax, elimintae the IRS, eliminate the dept of education, eliminate the dept of energy. etc etc etcetcetcetcetcetcetcetc............ If Ron Paul is not elected this election cycle then we Americans can kiss it goodbye.
    Not only do you support this man with your money but you need to get involved in the local GOP. You need to become a state delegate. The state delegates are the ones who elect the party
    Presidential nominee. Your straw poll vote does not do jack didly squat. Romney Sucks.

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  16. SSK,

    Best news I've heard yet today. Give it up for GPL - Hoorah!

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  17. We're lifting into open air again :)

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  18. As the master Jesse Livermore said:

    "When you're right, sit tight."

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  19. Thanks for the great charts Turd. I did the same thing as you a couple days back and lightened up on my may 40's. I knew it was the wrong thing to do at the time but let my emotions get the best of me. Wasn't comfortable with all the risk.

    Yesterday I came back to reality and bought back in on the $40.16 dip. Glad I got a second chance.

    Sure is looking good today.

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  20. A number of people (including me) have talked about AGQ (2x leveraged silver ETF) lately. I had previously understood this to be build out of leveraged futures contracts, but I just received the annual report last night for the ETF family and it appears that as of year-end the whole thing was build around a bunch of derivatives / forward contracts with Goldman Sachs (20%) and UBS (80%).

    So it appears that to buy AGQ, you have to be comfortable with counter-party risk from those two entities. I can think of worse counter-parties to be on the other side of the trade, but it does give me something to think about as we go forward. My main investable funds are in two IRA's, so the options are limited for a leveraged bet unless I were to bite the tax bullet and pull the money out. Not ready for that yet . . .

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  21. quick move up on pretty good volume, see if it holds & rises...

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  22. Holy #&$^were flying.

    Is this a FUOPEX?

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  23. 41 broken again

    The Silverchart looks like the chart from Greece ;)

    On the way to new frontiers ..
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GGGB2YR:IND

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  24. SLW shorts comming down.

    Short Interest (Shares Short) 4,501,000
    Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 0.3
    Short Percent of Float view
    Naked Short Selling List - NEW view
    Short Interest - Prior 6,654,800
    Short % Increase / Decrease -32.36

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  25. Turd,
    Your silver commentary this morning gave me a smile! But isn't it funny that we can be so conflicted in our feelings on all of this. On the one hand I'm encouraged to hear yours (and Jim Willie's) comments about silver and how well it's doing. But at the same time my heart sinks a little as I think about what the world/economic situaton will be at $200 silver. I just hope we have more time to prepare because I'm not ready for that number too soon. I know it's a 2 edged sword.

    Just trying to get up to speed on so many comments that I missed from yesterday.. I am sorry that I didn't respond at the time but I wanted to especially say thank you so much to OldNavy, StrongSideJedi, CD (love those options sites you put out there), DarkPurple... ..well.. everyone! Yesterday's threads were so educational for me and I need to take time ...maybe over the weekend.. to really go back and re-read... because this blog moves so fast and I can miss so much. Oh.. thanks for all the natgas discussion too!!

    And Eric.... your comprehensive responses to Erica were unbelievable. Just one person doing so much to try to answer/help another single person. That's what Turd has created here! Unbelievable the caliber of people this blog has drawn. I just thank you all.

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  26. The POSX looks just sickening...

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  27. Ugh. Missed that stink, would have been nice.. :)

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  28. xty, as requested:


    Eric#1 said...
    Here are some examples of the kind of Double Eagles I'm talking about. When they say "cleaned or polished" they mean for sure there is no numismatic value there at all, and no matter what the date or mint mark. Just .9675 troy ounces of historic US gold that you can touch, fondle, rattle around to your hearts content, and you can't harm it at all.

    http://www.providentmetals.com/20-liberty-us-mint-gold-double-eagle-polished-cleaned.html

    http://www.providentmetals.com/20-saint-gaudens-us-mint-gold-double-eagle-polished-cleaned.html
    April 13, 2011 11:06 PM

    Depending on the dealer you are using, these kind of coins will be referred to as "cleaned or polished" or Fine, Very Fine, or Extra Fine condition. They all fall broadly into the same category, which is to say, "nothing special". They trade like generics, without any care as to date or mint mark, basically at melt plus a reasonable premium. A little higher premium maybe than new Eagles or Maples. But at least this way you'll have something you can take out, touch, stack, jingle around to your hearts content. And that's worth something to me. Not saying this is the only kind of gold to buy, but a nice little stack somewhere handy to hold onto once in a while is a nice thing.

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  29. Not sure why anyone would want a leader who is promosing both tax cuts and reduced spending. Right now spending is a huge issue and taxes where they are is the pain that all working americans will have to live with.

    Promising both sounds like a vote-grab.

    The concern I'd have with a politician promising both is if only one promise is kept which will it be?

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  30. Can I hope for the 40.50 DIP today ? Hate to buy now at 41.20

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  31. Well, I got out of the markets a few days ago, and then felt right about it until last night, when metals surged, but alas they were beaten back, and I was given a massive gift this morning as prices were suppressed until after the opening. Thanks whoever was holding gold and silver down, thank you so much. Long about 1,000 July SLV CALLS and 400 July GLD CALLS.

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  32. I have a dream. That one day, the fucking mining stocks will rise like the metals. That the infernal hedge fund ratios going long the metal and short the miners will be blown up. That the miners trade ten, fifteen percent up on the day. That every rip isn't instantly wiped out by a raid. And that on a day silver bolts 60 cents, SLW won't be down 15 cents.

    I am a simple man. BUt I have my dream.

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  33. Damn! Go back down!

    (only because I'm doing a large physical purchase this AM! :) No point in trying to time it as I'm just adding to my Oz's. I' sure it'll be much higher later and I'm still keeping some powder dry for that.

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  34. Looks like someon REALLY wants to buy some PMs..

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  35. SSK...I agree with your view on SLW lately which is why I just bought some more calls 10 minutes ago when it was down.
    The SLW lagging performance won't last for much longer, it's way overdue to catch up.
    I'm pretty happy right now because I thought my capitral transfer to my options account wouldn't clear until Friday a.m. so when it was available first thing this a.m. I pounced on the SLW opportunity. Very happy right now. I didn't want to miss out on the silver run up that IS going to happen. Late Thursday's and Frdays have been great lately after the jobs report and other data comes out.


    XTY...Eric#1 has me seriously thinking of getting some older eagles just for the emotional pleasure of having them also.
    Not sure how the price compares to new shiny Ag Eagles etc. so thats the determining factor for me.

    I agree with Sierra...If a "White Knight/People's hero" doesn't happen this election cycle then I think we are past the point of no return for sure. I remain hopeful but I don't see anyone sacrificing their political future at this point except Ron Paul because he's already had a career (and then some) and would have nothing to lose as far as future political considerations go.

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  36. Turd

    your insights humble me ... I wish I was just half as good ... thank you

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  37. @ Turd
    "The U.S.A. has a spending problem. The deficit and debt cannot be controlled by "eliminating waste and abuse" and raising taxes on millionaires. This is nothing but class warfare politics and SPIN."

    Exactly. And the US isn't the only country with this problem, but the spending-side problem is far clearer than with most.

    And indeed, it IS class politics; I've just been confronted with a similar issue here in the Netherlands. Some of our politicians have come up with the plan to RAISE taxes on FOOD from 6% to eventually 19%. Simultaneously the idea was to LOWER taxes levied on income and corporations.

    Changes are slim that this will pass and some parties are already raising a stink about it - rightly so. But to even think they have the nerve to come up with a plan to raise taxes on items essential to survival I find astonishing. Other than that, we're doing pretty well here in the Netherlands. We've even cut our military spending, heavily, down about 6000 personnel, and we'll probably even sell a bunch of tanks, and some airplanes. Can't imagine the US ever doing something like that.

    For all I care, they can cut all the military of our budget. So far it's only given us trouble wherever we went. First Srebrenica in Bosnia and Herzegovina, then Iraq, Afghanistan wasn't that great either, and now we've got some airplanes hovering above Libya. Some politicians were even stupid enough to claim for a while that we won't engage actively - what the hell, as if the mere sign of weapons has ever led to peace and happiness.

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  38. I'm not bragging but...
    I think I may have had the best word ver's ever on here... "terdsman" and now...wait for it....
    "domettle"....I'm serious!

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  39. @Ginger

    I feel the same about needed more time to prepare. Back in 2009 I thought it would take me four years to make the moves I needed to, but it just seems that we are running out of time fast. But we are still ahead of 99% of the people out there...who are still clueless.

    I gave my nephews silver eagles for Christmas. I called my brother-in-law a couple of days ago and told him those $25 silver eagles were now worth $41, but the currency destruction still does not register with him. I like you have felt lead by my spiritual beliefs to prepare. Some will never have the eyes to see nor the ears to hear.

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  40. MUST READ!

    http://thefundamentalview.blogspot.com/2011/04/bric-nations-attack-doomed-us-dollar.html

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  41. johnboatcat -

    If SLW short interest is coming down, why does it just sit there like a dead fish?

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  42. When in Doubt, got to STOUT !

    I just had to say that because its my Alma Matter.


    P.S. I suck at spelling

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  43. Timing is everything and I'm feeling really good right now...Go baby go!


    MARAdonna....thats a awesome amount of action you just laid out...good for you and good luck...to ALL of us.

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  44. Swamp, xty, DPH,

    Look out. GPL is getting a bid. Weeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!

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  45. for those that haven't read Armstrong's recent write-up, it's a good read.

    http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/Other%20Side%20of%20Inflation%20Martin%20Armstrong%2004-13-2011.pdf

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  46. OK, so the tail just moved a little....

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  47. Greetings Turdites,

    Please give me some fedback and recommendations...

    I am looking at purchasing some 1oz and 5oz silver bars from a local coin shop. They have bars from Franklin mint with serial numbers, also Sunshine mint and a few others. My question is;

    What are the more popular or preferred mints to aquire bars from and are there any that I should avoid?

    Thanks to the Turd and everyone that participates here, as has been said many times before there is an immeasureable wealth of knowlege, common sense and wisdom here...

    I just wish I could speed read faster, lol

    Deucedude

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  48. Oil is shooting up due to reports that Tripoli is being bombed right now.
    They are going after the "Colonel" it appears to me.

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  49. I should have bought more this morning at 40.60. But I am not going to root for a pullback now.

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  50. @SSK I share the same dream, but at the same time we know SLW will rise, and the more silver goes up the cheaper SLW looks.
    SLW releases Q1 earnings on May 9th before opening bell, should be good for a big pop (I don't know how they could not have good earnings given the silver price)

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  51. NOrthern Border

    Years ago, my Dad used to call it "Home Ec Tech". haha

    He finished a degree there, so it's fair game.

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  52. Hello and welcome back all stateside friends. A bit tiring to hold the fort in Asia while you folks slept...but nice to wake to such figures!

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  53. Guy, where will Jim Willie appear? Thanks V!

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  54. T Lane,
    I always love it when I read that someone gave a niece or nephew or some children/family members silver coins for birthdays ..Christmas ..etc. I mentioned that to some inlaws at Christmastime last year and got laughs (from the parents. They didn't really want them.. their kids wanted toys!) ..and I caved and gave the toys. I do know that what you did took a degree of courage really ..because people don't appreciate it so much now sometimes ..but they will and you have done something that will be of great value to them.

    For each nephew/niece back in the mid-late 90s when most of my family were having their babies..I gave each new baby a silver proof set of US mint coins as well as my own children when they were born. I continued to give this set to my son each year on his birthday. Even at the time..being clueless about all this silver/gold stuff.. it just 'felt' right for some reason. It was my first foray into the silver world. This year I will give the coins (not numismatic..but just plain old silver) to family members. You've inspired me. :]

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  55. Deucedude everyone has a personal favorite, me if it says .999 on it I grab it. But that is me.

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  56. I heard that "lift off" call.

    I'm making a "roll program" call.

    For those who know Space Shuttle operations, the "Roll Program" is the call made by the Space Shuttle's commander about 20 seconds after lift-off when the "stack" makes a computer guided turn for a certain number of degrees. This turn hits after the lift-off in order to provide the accurate trajectory for the rocket.

    I'd like to suggest that this is called "roll program" when the precious metals programs are rolling into a new trajectory and position.

    The next call on the shuttle launch is "Max Q" when the shuttle hits maximum aerodynamic pressures during launch. This happens around 60 seconds into the launch. This would correlate on the silver programs with the inflection point on the silver graph when you move from computerized buying to having some sellers show up.

    SILVER - ROLL PROGRAM!



    Question for those buying "polished and cleaned" coins - why the "polished and cleaned" coin versus the one with the evidence of 100 years of look?

    The reason I ask is that I was at a coin shop and the coin shop actually paid a higher premium FOR the UNPOLISHED and UNCLEANED coin. I'm thinking that is due to the possibility that UNpolished and UNcleaned coins are harder to fake. The polished and cleaned coins erase the unfakable imprint of 80 years of slow oxidation. The old coin collectors seem to know this look and look odd at the polished coins.

    Congrats to those people who were able to acquire silver and gold bullion coins over the past week. There are very few good coins atocked in this area of the USA.

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  57. "If SLW short interest is coming down, why does it just sit there like a dead fish?"

    That sleeping mullet is jumping now!

    Canned bacon for everybody!

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  58. DeuceDude

    When I see Franklin Mint, I think of "As Seen On TV" sort of crap. I'd stay away, and just get the Sunshines.

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  59. @JoeKa

    My wife says this picture is creepier than you other two. Thanks for the vote of confidence this morning. It helped me turn off the computer and get ready for work.

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  60. Someone mentioned yesterday that Ted Butler said in his most recent newsletter that he feels a $10-20 pop in silver "in his bones".

    From his lips to God's ears!

    Regarding some of the political discussion here, I think what ALL Americans yearn for is a leader with conviction and integrity. Seems to me the ONLY person who fits that description out there is Ron Paul.

    While I don't necessarily agree with all of his positions, there is certainly more than one way to skin a cat.

    But you don't succeedd unless you choose a path and stick to it. Seems to me BOTH the Dems and the Repubs are very guilty ofsaying one thing and doing another.

    That just has to stop.

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  61. Here comes SLW--better late than never...

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  62. By Ian Katz and Rebecca Christie
    April 14 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary Timothy F.
    Geithner said financial markets have “confidence” in U.S.
    government finances as politicians seek to narrow a record
    budget deficit.


    What a joke

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  63. like the sustained volume, bit of a fight at $41.30...

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  64. 42000 April 40 call options in SLV just went in the money this morning. Does that even matter to the EE or might they try to hold things down until tomorrow evening?

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  65. @ Eric #1

    It was the first accredited business school in the UW system. We actully got that when I was a junior.

    Quite frankly, in my personal experince, the number of successful STOUT grads in my opinion far out weighs any other instituion than most other schools I have ever seen. Plus the price is right!!! IMO.

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  66. silver MAX Q for this morning's launch.
    (applause in the gallery).

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  67. Technical Commentary - Scotia Mocatta

    Gold is closing small up on the day at current 1456. The closest support and resistance levels are seen at 1447 and 1476. We remain bullish while last week’s low of 1429 holds. We believe the metal is legging higher to 1500. The price action is wavey in nature. Counting off March low 1383 puts us in a wave 4 consolidation with wave 5 set to take the metal higher.

    Silver moved up today to current 40.47. The metal is in a well defined bull channel with parameters 39.57 and 42.47. While the metal holds above last week’s low of 37.95, we are bullish Silver looking for a move toward 44.00. This motion higher, off 33.62, looks like an Elliot wave, with current price in wave 4. A break of 41.95 will confirm wave 5 move higher to 44.29 (the case where 5 equals 1 in distance). The Gold Silver ratio dropped back toward last week’s low of 35.81. While the ratio holds below 37.62, the risk remains bearish.

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  68. MAX Q

    I got googled - dang - the condensed version -

    SSK - must be the shorts, but Titus tells us the monkeys are covering their shorts, so soon we will not have to look at their hairy legs. And GPL (GPR for me on the TSX) is finally moving, but it has a ways to go to catch up to the 4.20 bid doesn't it? I didn't figure it out for GPR, just shut my eyes and waited.

    Eric - thanks - I will be taking that with me, if I can find a shop with anything. Might be an online moment, if anyone can ship such things to Canada, nervous about counterfeiting? on online orders I mean.

    And could gold please break out of this - it just tried, so maybe we are off.

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  69. any news coming out tomorrow that will affect PMs?

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  70. Yes....here comes SLW...I bought some calls when SLW was down $.22 this A.M.
    Love it!

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  71. StrongSIdeJedi

    The point of the discussion of the Double Eagles was to have at least some gold that was beyond harm from a numismatic point of view, something you can take out and handle to your hearts content.

    Serious coin collectors, the ones who will pay extra for a certain date, mint mark, or condition, will not buy a coin that shows evidence of having been cleaned. Not because they fear fakes or anything, just because it is no longer a clean, original, collectible coin.

    So when some newb takes his nice coin and cleans it, he has immediately destroyed the numismatic premium, no matter how nice that coin is otherwise, and that coin is now destined to remain in the near-bullion category forevermore.

    Which is just the kind of thing I'm looking for when I want to pay as little as possible and have something that I can handle and stack without fear of reducing it's value any further.

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  72. silver main engine cut off....
    new trajectory level achieved.

    LOL

    No, CFTC, the markets wouldn't be manipulated would they?

    Looking at Kitco's graph for silver prices over the last three days... the price at 9 AM and around 12 noon EST equals the price level at end of globex trading.

    By this observation, we'll see if the price at end of globex trading equals $41.25 +/- $0.05.
    I'm giving this one a 95% confidence level based on the new level just hit.

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  73. Does anyone read before posting? These comments are flying!

    I had an uncle who gave me a 'silver' dollar every year on my birthday. Some somehow are no longer with me, and the uncle too is long gone, but I have most of them although they had less and less silver. And we also got the Canadian Mint set every year at Xmas. We haven't been good about continuing, but now we have a great nephew, and we gave him an ounce of silver on his first birthday. Keeping that up might be difficult, especially if we get a bumper crop of great nieces and nephews. Unless I can buy enough soon - go SLW, go SILVER.

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  74. @Jerome: LOL! Ok time for another quick change then!
    How's this??

    Damn, these inflatable boobies are killer.

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  75. Turd...come on brother, don't leave us handing like that...share more details you received from Jim Willie ...$200 silver, god damn!

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  76. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  77. Current headline on Yahoo Finance - "Oil Slips to Near $106 as Traders Book Profits"

    LOL.

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  78. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  79. xty

    No, I haven't been nervous about fakes. Seems to me if you are going to try to copy something, you'll try to copy something really really nice and valuable. Why try to copy something that looks like it has already slid across the bar a few thousand times? Also, what you'll find available is all variety of dates and mint marks. I would think a counterfeiter would just crank out a ton of all the same.

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  80. Hey, xty. I haven't had time to read anything yet this morning. Did you know that silver is up?

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  81. Eric - you are right, like North Korea printing only crisp new US hundreds. Funny that Bernanke and Kim Jong really-Ill would have the same policy!

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  82. @Eric - thanks for the info on that... if we're buying for melt value, that is correct. I guess this discussion just means that you want to be careful that you do not accidently clean and polish the wrong coin. On the other hand, if you are ACQUIRING the clean and polish version of the coin, then you should apply discount and not allow the seller to pawn you at full collectible value. Thank you for that tip!

    BTW, I am enjoying seeing silver at this orbital trajectory. My guess is that the NYC crowd can't stand it much longer and will try to shoot this one down too. The NYC crowd are such attention hogs and publicity hams. When the mission is flying well, they launch some negatively worded story about how some part is broken.


    MESSAGE TO BEARS who are currently surrounded, trapped, and feeling scared.

    Do not go "bearish" in a long-term bull market.

    The trapped bear that raises it's claw will be the first one taken down.

    I'm waiting to see the bear show up in the next few hours. I'm guessing around 2 hours from now. The bear is walking around NYC right now not realizing he's just lost another fight. It will take him one hour to use the can (throw up) and another hour to drink some gatorade and tums before he tries to stand up on his hind feet and act like he's stronger than the trees that are now dwarfing his diminutive posture.

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  83. Xty,
    I wonder what happened to some of your coins? Hmmm.... check the brothers' stash if you have brothers *raised eyebrow*. ..Those brothers can be little sneaks. ..at least mine ;) (love my brothers!)

    I worked as a bank teller in the mid 80s and for some reason was very drawn to the silver coins. I asked the head teller if everytime I found one in my tray if she would let me take equal money out of my purse and switch it for the silver coins. She had no problem with it whatsoever so everytime I came across one, she would just watch me make the switch and I gained a bag full of silver dimes, quarters, halves that I have just kept all these years. Didn't really know why I wanted them but am glad now that I did. ....I also got a few funny looking bills that have print errors on them. Since we know where fiat is headed..that reminds me.. I should probably try to sell them for some nominal amount on Ebay and turn it into pms.. ??.. ..I need to dig those bills out and think about that as I'd almost forgotten them.

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  84. Speaking of bears...did you guys catch this story?
    Sad but true! Oh for the love of oil.

    Polar bear and cub awake in 'building site'
    www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-13081132

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  85. The Turd is a Jackass, you somebody !

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  86. xty

    That having been said, there have been a few times on eBay where I'd shy away from a coin that looked "too nice" if you know what I mean. "Too nice" sometimes puts my radar up.

    I would have no fear whatever in buying these from a solid retailer like a Provident, an APMEX, etc. Those guys have an interest in avoiding fakes too, and always keep an eye out.

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  87. Funny, the last few hours of the EUR.USD look like the spitting image of silver.

    "I would expect this [the POSX] back down near 75 by tomorrow."

    Tomorrow came awfully fast, below 74.90 again ;)

    It's quite amazing that the dollar is even weaker than we can imagine.

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  88. ack.. ..love this blog. .but I gotta go do some work. ..Turd has made it difficult to work for a living anymore.

    :] bye! ...keep silver roaring!

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  89. @Eric -- from previous thread, don't be sorry, your idea on gold/silver exchange is very practical and current. I was just quibbling around the edges...

    @Ginger -- I am happy to give back a little of what I get here, glad I could point to something of use. Have started giving my older (6 & 7) boys part of their allowances/travel gifts in silver (just got a few German Imperial Marks). Maybe I am overshooting here, but I figure I would not have been harmed by knowing about compound interest and fiat money earlier on...

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  90. I do hope that some sane policy can be brought about by the politicians you have named, but I wouldn't be counting on it. They are grossly outnumbered and I have NEVER had elected politicians actually stick to their guns. Our 'conservative' government helped bail out GM - our PM used to believe in smaller government and lower taxes. They all get sucked into the club, with the first bite of a crab cake, to paraphrase Rob Long.

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  91. What are the possibilities for a close above $42 today....looking better and better by the hour...the bears are in a panic!

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  92. Ginger: I bought a stack of silver coins for my kids, enough for 1 each on birthdays and Xmas until they are 18yo. I tell them it's real pirate treasure.

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  93. Turd n' Jackass. A match made in Shorts Hell.

    How could Jamie and Blythe possibly compete?

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  94. Ginger - hmmm - two brothers and they are both older than me ......

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  95. Good Morning Mister - I had missed that - thank you. Better let the trollercoaster know. Gold too, interestingly.

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  96. @dd: Don't know if we'll make it to $42 today but given previous fridays Globex action, i'd say it's a gimme for tomorrow ! ;-)
    Chuck

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  97. Running out of chart space to define the next resistance points.

    This could get ugly to the upside!

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  99. dd - I am with you. I originally thought we would see 45 by tomorrow, and then we had that stall over the past two days. But gold has gotten above 1465 (1468 and counting) and I think that will by like booster rockets on silver.

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  100. @dd: I dunno about a close ABOVE $42...but we may have fair value on very near or testing $42 even it means piling on another 60c plus.

    Again, need to watch towards the London close, which the Brits like to SELL into.

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  101. Bob Janjuah used to work for RBS, but his pro-gold attitude didn't fit with the organization. Now he's with Nomura:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bob-janjuah-picking-your-poison-1350-top-sp-or-qe3-change-fx-regime-and-surge-gold

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  102. Good Morning Everyone!

    @ Ginger & Xty

    Thank you both so very much for your kind words and encouragment! It has helped lift me out of a dark place, and I am grateful to both of you! Words are important, they can change lives and heal people! You both contribute so much here! I hope you know that. Many thanks again!

    I found this in my email box yesterday and wanted to share it with everyone looking for coin shops. Maybe we have one right at our fingertips! We'll have to check it out and see if it's worthy of our business!

    http://spotmex.com/

    Go silver!

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  103. @ StrongSideJedi

    LOL! Very sweet of you. ;)

    Now regarding silver, I should have posted earlier because I am the absolute champ when it comes to bad pm market timing.

    I CONFESS!!!! When I bought silver at the beginning of the week, I should have warned you that my buy was the signal for all of you to get out before the market dropped. Just like Turd has a near 100% record on timing correctly, I have a near 100% record on timing incorrectly.

    But that's okay, I'm sure that it'll go past $41.99 and my silver is sitting happily in a vault and, yes, it's allocated with numbers, etc.

    But, *sigh*, why can't I ever get it right?

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  104. "Have started giving my older (6 & 7) boys part of their allowances/travel gifts in silver (just got a few German Imperial Marks)" ...That is an EXCELLENT idea! ..allowance in silver coins. We have our kids separate their allowance out into keep, spend, tithe/dontate..etc. ..The 'save' portion could easily be done in silver.. I love that. Thank you for a great idea, CD!

    sumo,
    My son has had a 'pirate chest' since he was very small. He alway loved shiny things..for some strange reason lol... and has collected everything from bits of alluminum foil to real coins to put in there..as a toddler! It was funny to watch him as a small boy because he always reminded me of that little boy in "To Kill A Mockingbird' who had his boy box of treasures stuffed in that old tree...remember that? Scout's brother.. what was his name? ..Anyway, I just assumed it was a 'boy thing' with collecting a box of all this mostly meaningless stuff. He loves getting the real silver coins to put in there now and tries to take mine (although we mostly try to not let the kids know what we have in silver).

    Most of you have been more disciplined than me though in making sure you give these gifts on a regular basis. Good thing to think about.

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  105. Does anyone knows why $CDE is lagging ? It's the only miner with a downtrend. Looks like a great buying oportunity

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  106. I just had a customer leave my office who has been on unemployment going on 3 years. He readily admits he has never looked for a job. I heard him tell one of my employees that "they ain't going to stop my check...there will be killing in the streets".

    He is going to play golf today. I am knee deep in my tax return and figuring out where to pull the funds for the taxes I owe.

    I think my head is about to explode now....but hey silver is climbing.

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  107. Sam,

    not certain, but could be the news out of Peru. It's going Hugo Chavez. And CDE is big time in Peru.

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  108. sold half my portfolio, hope to buy back a little cheaper

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  109. Putting this out there for the newbies who are reading and trying to learn why we think (and know)that PM's are the way to go.

    "It's amazing how the mainstream financial media continues to preach to investors that Gold is in a bubble. As if Gold must be doomed to failure by virtue of having been a great performer over the past decade.

    "What the 'talking heads' can't seem to understand is that bubbles pop when prices lose all sense of reality, or when there's no one left to buy.

    "Neither is the case with Gold, which is still far short of $2,300/oz, the inflation-adjusted previous high in January 1980."

    Gold is nothing like the last two bubbles we experienced… which were dot-coms and real estate.

    "What powers Gold is not a fad investment such as the dotcoms," "What does drive Gold is the basic human desire to protect the purchasing power of one's savings… The rise in Gold's price has coincided with the explosion of the total of US Government Debt and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet assets…

    "It's not that gold has risen, but due to profligate economic policies the currencies have fallen. It's the same ounce, but what took just $260 to buy a decade ago now takes $1,450.

    "The US Dollar's purchasing has fallen over 80% in the amount of Gold it can buy. The decline is similar in the other currencies. Viewed properly in this manner, Gold is not in a bubble; the world's currencies are falling versus Gold due to their excess supply."

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  110. Wow Turd! Getting prop's from the Jack Ass. Look's like you are finally getting the recognition you deserve. Jim Willie is the real deal. I subscribe to his news letter and it is great, but sometimes out of my league.

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  111. Irene,
    You ARE getting it right! ...In time you will see how right you have gotten it!!! :] ;) (I know you know that.. just reminding)

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  112. Sam....SSK beat me to it. Something about Peru nationalizing their PM's or resources. Something to that effect.
    Look into it more online.

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  113. The bull is raging...and charging for $42...

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  114. The last few months feels like I've been schooled as to what currencies really are.

    They're like sick old men all stuck in the same dungeon fighting over scraps of food. They're all equally doomed, but there are days when some of them do better, some of them do worse.

    Mr. Dollar has been sitting curled up in a corner, mumbling incomprehensible stuff about QE for a while now.

    Mr. Euro got cancer but he doesn't know it yet and he refuses to go call for a doctor because he's afraid someone will tell him he's actually sick. He's beating the shit out of Mr. Dollar, but so is everyone else.

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  115. Oil, gold, silver climbing a staircase together

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  116. With silver moving up today and gld/slv options off the index board expiry tonight, ya gotta know the EE is in deep shit. Don't mind the bacon burning a little early today as tomorrow FRYday we get a bigger pile of ashes. White hot blow torchin comes to mind! Vaporizing the EE as an ice cube plunging into the suns center. That's hot and silver even hotter. hehehehehehehe

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  117. Wow! It keeps on giving!
    $200 or bust!

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  118. Okay - hope we are all right - turning some fiat in PHY.U. It is Xty's gold day apparently. Love the silver (and look better in it, I might add, so white gold and platinum are favourites of mine) and I think silver is still going to perform better than gold for the next while. But I didn't like the cash, have gone heavily into silver, and will feel much more balanced now. But it is hard to get used to moving large (for me) amounts of money around. I grew up in a buy and hold household, no debt, etc. And thought of wealth and assets as things you slowly tried to accumulate. Then got burned with a few investments and fell into the lull of letting other people manage our money poorly for us. I am sure for those of you who maximize all your opportunities it seems ludicrous but I really do find it totally nerve wracking.

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  119. RE: Jim Willie giving props to Turd--super! looks like you'll make something of yourself after all ;-)

    If there's a connection or network amongst PM gurus, there may be a hint about who the 'source' is.

    One possibility could be Izzie, Ted Butler's mentor.

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  120. Michael Rupport video talking about disaster in July when quarterly earnings reports come out. The catastrophe and radiation problem in Japan has disrupted supply lines and factories have been closed or stopped some production. Auto makers, electronics mfgs. all over the world can't release products because shortage of parts. He predicts the Dow dropping 5,000. Even if it drops 1,000 that is serious. Silver might come down at the beginning, but go like a rocket after that. Watch the video, he makes a better case than I.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMDRCwRtiNM

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  121. London close coming up. Watch the little dipper.
    You wanna get on, the platform is just up ahead.

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  122. I live in the peoples republic of taxifonia
    Today at the "cheap" gas station regular was $4.27
    And when I went to fill my truck I hit the $100 transaction limit just before the truck was actually full. Fortunately my silver investments are doing ok. :)

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  123. Great story: one of my partners' uncle is a radiologist, who just retired. It turns out that, back in the day, the xray emulsions were silver-based. Every once in a while, the hospital would tell the radiologists that it needed to "cull" the old xrays. The radiologists would take them off the hospital's hands (free), and send them to an outfit that recovered the silver. This silver was made into rounds, which were then GIVEN to the radiologists.

    At the time of his retirement, the guy's uncle had an entire dresser drawer full of 'em...

    I just love that story!

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  124. JoeKa
    You're too funny. My 16 yr daughter wants to dye her hair green. Now I think I will forbid it.

    everyone,
    any buyers at 41.40, or are you taking profits like trollercoaster?

    I am still trying to get some AGQ May options filled. No takers for my bull put spread bid. Perhaps I should trade the shares instead. but I made some good returns on April options.

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  125. where are the trolls now?, where are you Goldhammter?, you are nothing but a jealous loser trader...you should ask Turd how and when make some decisions in your trades so you can make some money....fuc**** troll.

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  127. @ppc: He'll be back along with the raggle-taggle of other metal-doomers as soon as there's a hint of a price dip.

    Every board attracts a number of these 'People' who spend all day posting endless quantities of verbiage about an investment class that they clearly have no interest in and fundamentally disagree with.

    I hope they spend as much time researching and posting elsewhere about investments that they do agree with, but I suspect not. I suspect most of them have no money at all, truth be told. They just envy those of us who do.

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  128. Irene...The urge to buy when strength is occurring is a "safe" feeling at the time.
    The urge to sell when things kind of crumble temporarily is "panic" and is hard to overcome. It's just not a safe feeling anymore.
    I used to have those feelings also.
    Try really hard when your feeling strongly about the safety aspect of it to strongly consider the contrarian way of looking at it....and wait. Don't feel like your missing the boat so you better jump on now. That boat will return usually at some point, maybe not as low, but maybe close to it.
    This doesn't apply everytime and thats for you to determine after you've established trust and confidence in yourself when you didn't cave into the "ok, it's safe now" psychology.

    This is so obvious but hard to keep in mind sometimes...Buy on weakness and sell into strength as much as possible.
    Trying to time the momentum is the key thing and only comes with lots of observation.
    I've learned the hard way and read this somewhere else that, when your nervous about buying is when the risk and upside is the greatest because your usually buying into weakness and it doesn't feel right/safe at the moment.
    Conversely, when you don't want to sell because a huge run up has happened and you don't want to miss out on "more profit" is usually the cue to sell off some or all of it and keep the powder dry for the next weaker moment.
    It's really, really hard to do these things when they don't feel safe, but it's the emotional aspect that will kill you everytime.
    Hope that helps.
    BTFD says it all, whenever they may occur.

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  129. daeguas:

    ease up, please

    you could be talking about someones daughter ;-)

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  130. @Jerome: tell your daughter...Apple Green hair is soo 1980 darlink! That year was vintage.

    I'll rebuy near 41.14 - just coz I love the reverse mirror numbers. I'm strange that way.

    SELL?? Are you mad man?? :P

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  131. @Jovil

    I saw that video earlier in the week. I'm not sure I buy it. Yes, the tragedy in Japan will have adverse consequences for the financial world. But I am not sure the magnitude of these consequences will be great enough to inflict the type of damage/crisis that he is talking about.

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  132. Please don't beg the trolls to come out...please?

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  133. About CDE and Peru:

    Not sure I buy that theory. Look at Fortuna today. They are all Peru, but flying high today.

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  134. I'm with DarkPurple. Just as trolls should not be fed, neither should they be taunted. Why give them a reason to come out?

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  135. @DPHaze-
    Thank you for sharing the comments above...excellent comments about getting control of fear.

    A surfer friend of mine told me that it takes some skill to even see a good wave coming.

    You have to be pointed in the right direction and make mini-corrections to catch it.

    You have rise above the surface of the water enough to see the wave building.

    You have to look behind you and start paddling before the wave comes.

    You have to be balanced enough to stand as the wave builds your momentum and most of all

    You have to stand on the board long enough to enjoy the ride.

    If you bail out of fear, you will not enough the ride.

    If you do not rise above the water, the wave may pass you by.

    If you are in the wrong direction, the wave may crash on your head.

    All apropos for us.

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  136. About that video of Ruppert claiming "we have until July".

    Nobody and I mean NOBODY can reasonably make a prediction for timing a financial meltdown/tsunami like action.

    I do not believe we have "until July" because I intend on living well past the next 90 days.

    If I am alive and you are too, we will need to exchange goods.

    The only question is whether or not we exchange in useless FRN's, useful USD's, or silver coins.

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  137. odd "word verify"
    "warcu"
    war - c - u?
    weird.

    Anyway, silver is doing a orbit at its new price.

    We'll see if another engine burn happens and the thing stays in this orbital trajectory or not.

    As posted earlier, I'm expecting the NYC bear to show up in about 1 hour.

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  138. EVG has just found a monster...

    From Stockhouse "This is probably the richest intercept that I have ever seen and confirms that we may have an elephant discovery on our hands in just the first few drill holes.
    This is, afterall, Carlin country which is the richest gold discovery area in the world"

    Yay

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  139. I guess we didn't get much of a bargain on Cream Minerals here a couple days ago after all.

    And check out the volume on my little pet Bralorne. ZERO, so far. Amazing.

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  140. Another good day. Over the last five days, silver's up ~3%, gold's slightly up. So, physical's green, options green; and my miners - AG, EXK, some others - mostly 3-5% down.

    No complaints, at all. But I can't help but keep wondering whether the ultimate target of some PTB or the other is the ration of miner price to price of assets in the ground, and their ultimate goal extending their control over production, whether to induce miners to hedge or simply continue to accumulate at reduced rates (compared to the value of their assets in the ground). I'm guess I'm another person moving just a bit closer to leaving the miners be.

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  141. Dr J - let her dye her hair - piercings and tattoos last forever - hair grows back. I would pick a different fight, and you will possibly ruin her dream if you actually go along with it - might not seem so cool if dad approves. Or tell her you will pierce your belly-button if she does it.

    Salud - nice to hear your voice - it is always sunny in Turdistan. I wanted to offer Badu some consolation, too, but he is probably off kicking his van.

    The problem with not buying into strength is that it is also a good idea to make sure that something is going in your direction - I am impatient and have had to learn to wait for confirmation from the charts that something is going up or down - so catching the actual top or bottom I would not try now - wait to get confirmation, maybe pay a little more, but better than being fooled. I just bought PHY.U on the tsx, Sprott's gold fund, and gold was at the top, but I have been waiting for it to break through 1465, per Turd, and then made my move. So don't feel too bad for jumping in when things are flying, especially when the target is $50.

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  142. er, 'ratio' in that last post, not 'ration'. :)

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  143. AFRUM: You wrote "gld/slv options off the index board expiry tonight"

    I have some APR SLV calls, deep ITM, but they expire Friday April 15. So I can still trade (sell) them tomorrow - which is my plan, although Harvey has often suggested that on share option expiurary, EE takes the price of Ag down.

    So can you explain yr comments, please. Much appreciated

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  144. SLW down again :( Will it ever stand for itself?

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  145. xty

    you are a savvy Mom indeed.

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  146. Listen to Eric Sprott:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdKf7hEJyeQ&feature=related

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  147. This Ain't Disneyland

    Plans now indicate there will be a major operation in Libya this weekend to neutralize Daffy Duck. If something changes I will update you as I am able.

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  148. @ J
    On EVG
    please provide a link so we can research.

    On green hair: I can handle the temporary looks. Most piercings will close & heal reasonably if one changes their mind. I will draw the line with tattoos and ear gauges. And to top it all off, a boy is interested in her!

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  149. Question for the Turd Herd:

    If I'm planning to take a position trade on a mini-silver is there really much advantage to trading the forward month?

    The May contract will have to be dumped within a couple of weeks, so I'm looking at going long on the July contract.

    Looking for an entry around 41 with an "emergency stop" somewhere around 38.

    Btw, last night before bed I considered placing a buy limit order at 40.60 hoping for a little dip overnight and then a run up this morning. Of course I didn't and that's exactly what happened.

    I'm kinda getting tired of stressing over the daily swings.I'm about ready to go "all in" with the long position previously mentioned.

    So anyway, what are your thoughts on buying the July as opposed to the May?

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  150. I'm more and more of the opinion that it's hard enough to make money in miners, that the best thing to do is just buy them AND LEAVE THEM ALONE. If we then apply our own lousy timing and emotion fear and greed laden trading skills, then we are truly in a no-win situation. "You can't beat the house".

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  151. Dr Jerome:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Evolving-Gold-Intersects-10-1-cnw-70341031.html?x=0&.v=1

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  152. 2nd day of sub cycle 6-2-3 for me....

    11 Apr high of 41.93 is the bar to par and cross...

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  153. Good morning all -

    At this rate SLV will overtake SLW by the end of the day. Someone must have written a ton of calls on SLW and needs to get out of them. Silver up almost $1 from this time yesterday and SLW down almost $1 for the same time frame.

    I bought SLW calls in several stages last few days. Would like to sell calls against them but the thing won't move. Op. ex. holding the spring down.

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  154. @jedi

    i saw that video too. i don't get too excited by that type of stuff either.

    i ignore anyone who makes a 100% prediction about the market, i'm ok with hearing predictions, but humility is the mark of the good trader. full arrogance in short term trading always leads to ltcm blowup

    btw, for any trader out there, i did a 30 share test yest of agq, and yes it moves, but if u r used to options, the move is almost nonexistant!

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  155. I make enough bad trades that I can at least crow a bit when earned. I bailed on SLW a while back. And HL just in the nick of time before that.

    You want all my bad trades? Blogger would poof me out long before I got halfway through!

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  156. SSK,

    Next time it's obvious Blythe is lurking and we see .10 and .20 red candles, try SLW puts.

    It's hard to get in front of this bull, but there are obvious days to do it, and since you think it underperforms anyway and seem constantly frustrated by it, look at it from a different angle. The algos really have a hold of SLW, IMO

    Easiest money I've ever made has consistently been SLW puts, even though TF doesn't advocate trying to get short silver anything. Wait for Blythe to show up and buy ITM

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  157. Eric - I am with you - I don't even look sometimes. I check the total account balance, sigh and move on. I assume I bought them for a reason, and short of bad news (which we always get a day late anyway) they are going to sit there until they go up, damn it.

    Dr. j - you are obviously well-thought out on this whole daughter thing - but when the boys come calling, it is just terrible. How would this troll who likes your daughter feel about the green hair?

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  158. @ Eric,
    True dat. I went against my new rule to buy and hold on Monday and sold off two of my miners I thought were going to go on sale so I could buy them back. Oremex is still down and Tinka has rallied about 18% in the past two days and is higher than where I sold at. I lost on that one!

    PS-I've been watching Cream for a while, definitely liking the way that one is looking long-term. Still need to do some deeper DD on it before placing bets.

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  159. @ Evil

    What is going to happen this weekend, specifically

    @everyone
    If Ghadaffi is removed from power is that good or bad for PM's?

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  161. Best "trade" in my life? Bought a pretty good pile of physical gold 5-15 years ago around an average cost of $425/oz. Still feeling pretty awesome about THAT! Hardly a "trade" though if it's one sided. And no fear or greed involved.

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  162. "SLW is simply a disaster the last ten days. Continually underperforming the metal.

    SK"

    First time poster, long time reader, this place is amazing, it's been said many times. Turd, my humble thank yous for the focus you've given my Portfolio of late, I've been PM trading since 2008. but the info on this site has been a god send.

    I think that they've (EE) got a hold of SLW stock now that the market cap is of significance. I seriously am thinking of abandoning any miner that allows options trades. Look at the down days, they are almost equivalent between stocks like First Majestic and SLW (by proxy, SVM, SSO), but on the up days SLW is only up a couple of percent (if that, sometimes down), while the smaller market cap miners are up 6-10%. Don't get me wrong, SVM has gone from $7 to $14 in my portfolie, SSO from $18 to $33 and SLW from $24 to $44, but it seems like their action is getting more and more sluggish as each day passes. FR on the other hand has gone from $7.50 to $24 for me and seems to be accelerating. The only large cap miner I wouldn't sell is goldcorp.

    On that topic the current trade on Bay street is to swap AEM for G, K & ELD. AEM has a growth premium that is no longer justified (this stock peaked at $90+, currently trades at $63). I'll never touch Kinross again but I did complete this swap (AEM for G and ELD calls) in early feb and has worked out well so far.

    Sorry for my inexperience posting on blogs, first time as well.

    By the way Turd, this relates to your commentary on slashing deficits. I know you don't specifically mean he's more of a spendocrat than any other president persay. But I would like to point out that Canada's deficit/debt was slashed by one of the most progressive and liberal goverments we've ever had. That is why we were in a massively advantageous position when the rest of the world walked into a sovreign debt crisis, but we started slashing in 1993 and never stopped until 2006. It is not due to our regulations, current conservative (socially conservative, economically insane) government, the monopoly banks hold over the citizens of Canada or any other crap you hear on the MSM. None of this may be relevent as the US debt may be too far gone, but it's amazing what can be done once one is willing to accept the actual problem.

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  163. 41.30, nap time finished. Now start climbing.

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  164. Concerned_Citizen

    Don't apologize. Awesome post, keep 'em coming. You have something to contribute.

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  165. Followed Willie, Butler/mentor Izz for years. This tube was made in their honor sometime back. Rabid silver dogs will know it. Others may not on this thread? Silver War Cry 6 min http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FywT-txGuss

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  166. the miners are under constant pressure these days...doesn't seem to matter how much PM goes up - the JPM wet piss blanket is held over the PM stocks...

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  167. I jumped into Silver Wheaton (SLW) a few days ago after their recent fall from $47.50. Hoping you can't keep a good stock down... forever.

    @J, would also like to see a link on Evolving Gold. I've been to the STOCKHOUSE website a few times but found the website design very odd. I must be a duffus, it just seem very hard to navigate that site and read through threads. Very cumbersome.

    Any tips on navigating around the stockhouse site?

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  168. Eric#1...I hear you about Peru and CDE and Fortuna.
    The only thing I can think of if it's true about Peru (bad rhyme) is that Fortuna has a long way to go whereas CDE is way up there already and firmly established with a high market cap already etc.
    Thats a lot of if's of course but that would be just a surface guess on my part. The only other thing I can add as a possible reason (with no facts as to why) is that CDE has a large exposure to the Chinese marketplace and resource sector I believe. Maybe something regarding China and that exposure also has something to do with CDE's lagging performance lately.

    Raul..As far as SLW goes, it will rebound all at once when Ag goes higher and higher. It's a given ( slamdunk IMO)as it's not a mining company but a silver revenue streaming company with silver prices locked in due to hedging and finance needs by real miners. It's inevitible and you may look at it as a opportunity once it settles down again to a good entry point for you.
    Buy on weakness and sell on strength.
    I've seen Gold Corp. do the same thing and now it's just staying relatively strong because it's underlying asset is gaining value. It has to go up, to some degree. True, it's a miner vs. a silver streamer but you get the point.
    Can you see a point where you say to yourself, "Damn, I should have bought it when I was having doubts about it?"
    See what I mean?
    Buy at your own pace and peace of mind when you see fit. Give it time.

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  169. @Apples

    Hilo reported 8X radiation limit in their milk last week. Europe advised mothers and babies avoid ingesting rainwater. We are only at the beginning of food insecurity due to radiation issues.

    I don't have any babies in my family, but I bought 50 lb of powdered milk yesterday, the equivalent of buying physical instead of trading milk futures. Maybe I will be able to save a yungin.

    BTW, for all of you ready to say the radiation levels in food are no higher than normal background leevels, here's the deal. You are not ingesting the background. You are ingesting food and the levels concentrate.

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  170. Yeah so does anyone actually the read the comments or just keep posting or am I not one of the chosen few. I asked a serious question about Ghadaffi that will impact all of us one way or the other. I need to get in the right positions before the weekend.

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  171. My PSLV play on the dip is paying of handsomely today.

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  172. For context... what changed in the PM markets for prices to start climbing from their former platform? i may have read it, but as we know, there is SO MUCH info to absorb.
    10 years back or so, what was the catalyst for the increase?
    Talk about BASIC question! ;)

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  173. I did junior miners very actively throughout the late 90's, and left broke and dispirited. It seemed a rigged game. Gold was going nowhere and that didn't help.

    I've been back in now for 3 months and actually I've made very good money. Profits alone are more than I ever had at risk total in the first go-round, but still I'm feeling like the bloom is off the rose. I think maybe my first lessons were more right than wrong.

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  174. Concerned Citizen - I own some Kinross - KS on the TSX.v - bought it after doing my own dd, before I was a regular here - it totally sucks. Why would you never touch kinross again? I do feel I was taken in. Kinda pissed but still own it. Ditch it?

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  175. The Stockhouse site is crap but some posters there are quite good (beware all the pumping/dumping trolls thou). Usually I just google "Stockhouse + company name" to get to the relevant page :)

    http://www.google.se/search?sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&q=stockhouse+%22evolving+gold%22

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  176. @Eric#1 - I hear you on the emotion --> lousy timing, true for me. I pretty much nailed the lows this week to sell 1/3 my position in Aurcana and to hedge with some SLV puts - then bought SLW puts _after_ the drop. Arggh! I should park it all in CEF. :-)

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  177. gaddafi is only one factor here among many

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  178. I agree with XTY and Fred about not sweating it on the down days. I'm confident in my thoughts on why I bought them in the first place and will hold my out in time option calls,.
    The down days and EE beatbacks are hard to stomach, true. But like TF said, Ag just wants to spring back all the time.
    Can anyone here imagine what it's going to be like when a slightly larger investing audience gets on board and momentum starts to take place.

    BOIINNNGGGGG! Straight up one day and it WILL happen.

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  179. where the hell do you get news on CDE? Nothing available off Google. Anybody know a reliable up to date news source on miners? Normally I don't bother with it but this thing is trading weak in an up market. Rumors of Peru? Where do you get this news? Thanks, R.

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  180. Xty,

    I owned Kinross in '08 when they had a good run from $13 to $21. Ever since then they've been waffling. It seems to be regaining favour in the analyst circle on Bay street, however I think that the last two years have done so much damage to its rep that people like myself are hesitant to get back in.

    It is just so sluggish, not ELD has accelerated out of the dip while K has wafflled once again.

    However if you do own this stock now, (bought it at the current level, ~$14-$15), the analysts are saying buy some more (or at least hold). You may have to wait some time before it takes off.

    I will throw eggs at their office on Front street if you lose money on their stock, haha.

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  181. @DarkPurpleHaze

    CDE has NO Peru exposure. They have a mine in Bolivia which was threatened to be expropriated. They have debunked that. The govt in Bolivia already owns the mine. They just manage it. And split the profits 50/50.

    PAAS has Peru exposure and the risk with them is who will win the election there. The front runner says he wants to go Chavez style. But the market seems to blow him and his message off.

    Therefore, CDE action seems to be OPEX related.

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  182. DPH - Yup indeed - and even on this up day, the dog is calling - could gold please actually leave this level while I am out.

    Concerned - please, if you have any infor on KS, it would be much appreciated.

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  183. here's their home page

    http://www.evolvinggold.com

    and it can be had for less than a dollar a holler

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  184. Pablo

    No, I remember your question, but didn't respond because I didn't feel like I had anything constructive to contribute.

    I don't have a clue what's going to happen to Ghadaffi over the next few days. Seems like betting on whatever the magic 8 ball comes up with. And even if we get a headline, it might be spin, a headfake, "managed news", garbage from Goldman Sachs, or whatever.

    All I know is that the trend of chaos in that part of the world is very much intact. And the trend of money printing everywhere else in the world is very much intact. And I place my bets accordingly.

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  185. afrum:

    someday, they may erect a statue in Ted Butler's honor

    of course, we'd have to do something about all those pigeons

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  186. Pablo
    don't worry about Gadaffi or Chavez or elections in Peru....worry about US debt and US debt holders, how US debt keep increasing with little chance to reduce it and with US debt holders wanting to dump USTB and USD. Wathever price is now on commodities will be cheap by the end of 2011...everyelse is noise.

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  187. No, XTY, Please don't stop posting! NOT FOR EVEN FIVE MINUTES!!!

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  188. 41.50 line being defended...once it collapses, the short panic will be enough to drive us to the highs!

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  189. All the old management from Kinross prior to 2005 when it was an aggressive mover and shaker is now at Allied Nevada. Just sayin'.......

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