Monday, April 4, 2011

Another Monday

I'd say that's a pretty good start to the week. Again, considering where we were at 9:30 on Friday...

Let's start with gold which, personally, I'm getting a little sick of. As I showed you over the weekend, gold has been in a range now for over six months. Yuck. It's wearing me out. It had some promise overnight but the lack of follow-through in WTI put a damper on things. As we all know, the price of gold as insurance against collapsing fiat should have nothing to do with the price of WTI but try telling that to some of the Commodore 64s that are currently in charge of the trade. This, too, shall pass...perhaps very soon. But for now, the range continues:
Now, one more thing regarding WTI. Brent crude is currently over $120/bbl, which is a gain of about $1.50. If Brent hangs in there and then moves higher, crude will eventually jump to catch up, regardless of how much oil is stored in Oklahoma. WTI at $110+ will make The Cartel's task of containing gold below $1440 considerably more difficult.

Silver is just beautiful. In the past, you've heard me mention how the nasty shorts will place "buy stops" just above previous highs. The dipshits figure that if silver breaks out to new highs, they want to cover their shorts and look to re-establish at a higher level. You can clearly see this on the chart below:
To me, silver looks to have spent the day consolidating at this higher level. In the past...and you know how much I like patterns...a breakout to a new high consolidates like this and then springs higher as greedy longs, who have taken a wait-and-see approach to the breakout, come charging in for fear of missing the next big UPleg. If pattern repeats here, we'll soon see some acceleration to the UPside, maybe some hesitation at 39 and then a thrust toward $40.

Lastly, my corn is just doing great. Check out this daily chart:
Now that we are back in the primary trend from last fall, you can expect this baby to keep chugging higher. Remember, the USDA report that showed planting intentions last week will be the high number of acreage for the year. Weather delays will undoubtedly force the number to be adjusted lower over time and this will be just another factor driving corn higher. Many have asked how an equity/etf trader can profit from commodities. You might check out the DAG. Its an ETN that is composed of 25% corn, 25% wheat, 25% soyas and 25% sugar. A warning, though, trading grains is NOT for the faint of heart. Expect volatility but always remember that "the trend is your friend" and, in this case, the trend is clearly on our side in all dollar-denominated commodities.
Read this, too:

OK, that's it for now. More later...before the big basketball game. TF


  1. Today's like today make you glad to own silver!

    best way to get silver? "Junk" silver hunting...

    Check it out... nice work as always turd!

  2. Turd: Yogurtland or Yogurtguru ? If the latter I went to one in cherry creek last weekend, what a cool concept

    TURD likes CORN...LOL

  3. For everyone trying to day trade, this strategy has worked well as of late.

    This is based on an average of say 10 option contracts. There has been a definite low at somepoint every day, that we have rebounded from. This is your initial entry point, try to guess the bottom. Give 10-15 minutes to get a fairly definite bottom before submitting your order.

    First position is 3-5 contracts. Hold for the day, unless it breaks through your stops. Then if Silver ends UP for the day, hold those positions through the night. Lately it has gapped up the next morning, so you will start the next day with even more money in the bag.

    Now you can do 1 of two things. Hold that position to the low for the day(bottom picking strategy) and then add the next 5-7 contracts for the remainder of the day. Then sell those back off into the close, and remain some exposure again overnight with 3-5 contracts. Or you can try to find the initial top, or sell those first 3-5 at the beginning to capture a profit. Then hunt for the lows and re-enter.

    Rinse/wash/Repeat. It's made me a few hundred in the volatility last week, so thought I'd share. But you have to place your stops!

    The large sell offs generally occur during mid-day U.S. hours. So there is some risk, but risk/reward is tradeworthy.

    Oh yeah watching Gold along with the Silver charts helps make the moves a little more predictable. One will generally make a large move before the other. I watch the GLD/SLV charts.

  4. Good call on corn, lately the Dept of Ag have been overestimating planting sizes (probably for the same reason they manipulate everything else) to keep higher prices at bay.

  5. Chris Martenson still saying QE2 will end, resulting in a "enormous rout" of stocks, bonds, commodities. Who to believe?

  6. From a pure efficiency standpoint, it is probably cheaper for TPTB to contain the gold price than to pay for the consequences of the metal shooting to new all-time highs.

  7. xty

    The problem with "what if some whack job shows up at your house" is that at that point it doesn't even matter if it's at home, or in a bank deposit box, or buried somewhere, or even just shares of CEF all along. It's still a problem. What if the only one home is one of your kids or something?

  8. @Auric:

    That's the PLAN. End QE2. Tank the markets. THEN say... QE3 to the rescue, and the doubters and naysayers will be crushed underfoot and the "investors" beg for it. [QE3]

  9. Eric #1,
    I have a good friend who wants to buy silver but cannot trust his kids... One in particular would steal all he could find and buy drugs. What a bind. He does not trust banks and he can't keep it at home.
    Perhaps he should get a safe that is too heavy to move... any suggestions? We are only a 1/2 day drive from Canada. Are banks there less likely to lock the doors?

  10. DOc J

    It is truly a dilemma, one which I think we all struggle with, and don't have a perfect answer for.

    It's truly depressing when one can't even trust one's own kids. But from what I read in the papers, sometimes it's not even the kids but maybe the kids' drug dealing buddies who think maybe there's an easy mark in the neighborhood.

    Can't really speak to the Canada question. Contrary to popular belief, Wisconsin is not in Canada. xty and Happy could maybe fill us in about Canadian banks.

  11. never fear for way or another...they wil need more deciding how they pull it off....hehhehe....that will be the trick.

  12. I agree with Sir Woody. Markets tank a bit after QE2 expires and then QE3 to the rescue.

    Commodores 64???

    Any rice /grain related ETN's?

  13. I had a serious sit-down with my kids about it. I said if anyone asks you about gold, you don't know anything. Gold? What gold? You mean like earrings and stuff?

  14. Extraordinary ASE's still under 50 bucks!! Friend of mine rounded up 3 in seattle Friday and said he was amazed at the lines. Can't say you'll see more ASE's hangin around the coin shops with Utah having inked the deal of legal tender us mint bullion coins 3/25! Many states will follow. Total minted since '86. 160 million! Know I've been accumulating for years and I'm no genius. I sent him a rack of 20 '10's in trade for hot loads 00 shot shells he does for riot guns!! He said he wanted to pay me cash and I told him no way. I want to barter. He also makes his own honey and that will trade well in the future over FRN's. Cash is fast becoming trash!! benron burnokio bucks dying as I type!!

  15. @DPH
    Check (CORN) I bought last week up 5.75%
    and (DAG) ETF up 3.56 from last week, 3.44 on the day

  16. DINKERS! Dollar inkers to infinity! The dead head feds have no other play. Boxed in and have to print like every other government in history!! Print fiat paper money to worthlessness!! End of discussion. We may guess at when the dollar fails; fail it will!!

  17. Doc J,

    While I do believe Canadian banks are less likely to close doors than smaller US banks they are not risk-free either. The largest would likely receive TBTF treatment similar to what's happened in the US.

    There are innovative ways to hide PM's around the home provided one doesn't need frequent access. I'll give one specific example but to avoid giving the game away will generalize. PM's are fairly heavy but can be hidden inside items that, generally, are already heavy and we don't know the weight of and don't move too often. For instance a large stereo speaker could easily hold 100 oz...simply remove the particle board back, secure the PM's inside and then glue or screw the back in place. Later this can also provide a way to transport the metals in stealth mode. Hope the kid doesn't hawk the speakers in a desperate moment.

  18. afrum is no longer mum!

    ty for the prose, good sir!

  19. afrum!!! You may not realize it but since your last post you have become something of a legend here, my friend. There must have been 50 posts at least over the past week or so mentioning "Where is afrum" "I wish afrum was here to cheef FRYday", etc. Welcome back from your wanderings, sir.

  20. There seems to be growing divergence between the price of SLV and current silver contracts. Is there any significance, or am I overlooking something really simple, like changes in NAV of the fund?

    1/27 1-5PM low /SI: 26.745 SLV: 26.145
    2/24 1-5PM low /SI: 31.705 SLV: 30.96
    4/4 right now: /SI: 38.495 SLV: 37.57

  21. Xty

    you said "when silver hits $.40?" TODAY ... I WIN

    notice the . infront of the 40 .... since I know you're going to reneg .... $40 by next Tuesday (4/12) what the heck

  22. Sorry, meant to include the differences:
    1/27: $0.60
    2/24: $0.745
    4/4: $0.925

  23. send the kid to work for jpm all the free drugs and hookers one could want

  24. I've been keeping an eye on some of the agriculture ETN's/ETF's for a while. Put them all in an excel file to keep a nice overview of what is what, how much it's made, and so forth. Here's an overview. DAG is definitely a keeper.

    RJA (ETN):
    Wheat 20,06%
    Corn 13,61%
    Cotton 11,60%
    Soybeans 8,60%
    Coffee 5,73%
    Live cattle 5,73%
    Soybean Oil 5,73%
    Sugar 5,73%
    Cocoa 2,87%
    Lean Hogs 2,87%
    Lumber 2,87%
    Rubber 2,87%
    Soybean Meal 2,15%
    Canola 1,92%
    Orange Juice 1,89%
    Azuki Beans 1,43%
    Rice 1,43%
    Oats 1,43%
    Barley 0,77%
    Greasy Wool 0,72%

    Date From 30-6-2010 to 18-3-2011
    Price From 6,815 to 11,025

    JJA (ETN):
    Soybeans 24,49%
    Corn 24,19%
    Wheat 15,17%
    Coffee 9,84%
    Soybean oil 9,81%
    Cotton 8,99%
    Sugar 7,51%

    Date From 30-6-2010 to 18-3-2011
    Price From 38,34 to 64,39

    DBA (ETF):
    Corn 12,50%
    Soybeans 12,50%
    Sugar 12,50%
    Live Cattle 12,50%
    Cocoa 11,11%
    Coffee 11,11%
    Lean Hogs 8,33%
    Wheat 6,25%
    Kansas Wheat 6,25%
    Feeder Cattle 4,17%
    Cotton 2,78%

    Date From 30-6-2010 to 18-3-2011
    Price From 23,685 to 33,735

    JJN (ETN):
    Soybeans 38,36%
    Corn 37,88%
    Wheat 23,75%

    Date From 30-6-2010 to 18-3-2011
    Price From 33,045 to 52,165

    Meanwhile, DAG performed during the same period as follows:
    Date From 30-6-2010 to 18-3-2011
    Price From 5,9 to 13,9

  25. Short Lead


    There was a long thread I didn't get to post to about various kinds of guns for self-defense. I am a priest and one of the personal tabus that was placed on me at my consecration is that I can neither own nor have in my house or car a gun. So that's out.

    I was wondering about tasers. I know I can (and I will) look them up on the Internet. But these would not be as violation of the tabu I carry and I'd love to hear any personal experiences - pro or con - from fellow Turdites. One thing that worries me is that they must need electricity and who knows about the coming integrity of the infrastructure? (I'm really not as paranoid as all that, honestly.)


    Brad who churned his accounts (IRAs)today and made a lot of loot.

  26. While I share Turd's frustration ovcer Au being range bound I keep seing the Au to Ag ratio dropping and I couldn't be happier! Maybe time to start looking at cocoa as Reuters is reporting UN forces firing on government militaty bas in the Ivory Coast.

  27. My original comment about the kid being home wasn't about not trusting the kid (I trust mine) but about their personal safety. If someone comes to your door bent on violence, it no longer matters where your gold is.

  28. Brent closed up over 2 bucks......hehhehe..well turd we'll see if it has pull tomorrow

  29. @ Eric#1

    One of our longtime faves on the web for buying used books is

    which is a site consolidating a lot of used book dealers, including Abe Books. Don't forget eBay either, or Amazon.

  30. I do trust Canadian banks more than US ones, but only up to the gov't guaranteed limits. Worry sometimes about our investments, and the brokerage firm going down.. However, having said that (thanks, Larry David for ruining that phrase), we seem very linked to the US - when we went in on GM, I realized the gig was up. In fact, that might be the very moment when my cynicism settled in for good. If there is a bank holiday, I think it will be global, and then we are in for the UN currency, the One World Dollar, the UNCLE - UN Currency Legal Enslavement - so we can all cry UNCLE! together.

    As to kids and safety - we are doomed. I established a principle of no hypocrisy with the kids and we have been fairly full monty with them, and by extension their friends. But I trust in good luck and an extremely messy house to carry the day. If we cannot enjoy each and every day and attempt to foster a community of trust and honesty and good humour and well-being then what are we up to? I cannot let my paranoia destroy my quality of life. When they were younger we were more tight-lipped about amounts of money and salaries but as they got older we needed to teach them about finances so opened the books to a large extent. I was a homeschooler when the kids were little and used everyday life as education, and it extended through high school. Too lazy to be devious, is the real story.

    Are we settling in for the day in gold and silver?

  31. all of you need to be aware of what happens with keeping PMs if the bad guys decide they want it...they already know you have it hid. So they must forcibly enter with you present. They will then "interogate" you. One thing you can do to keep them from prolonging the process and losing all of your gold or silver is to have several stashes. Keep the least valuable stash to "give up" A nice heavy lock box of silver will suffice. Those who keep it all together such as a home safe will find that as fingers are cut off one by one or worse you will give up your combo quickly. Keep semi auto pistols in at least three locations in your house with loaded clips none in the chamber (lessens risk for kid) Keep them up high out of reach of kids. Most kids are not able to pull back the action on a semi (nor do they know how)When they break in it will be fast and furious without warning and you have to know where to go within a second. gl always assume they will know you have PMs

  32. XTY,

    Silver is now floating along nonchalantly in the doldrums. Boring. How can you tell I am a gen eX'er? My brain needs constant stimulus or I am bored... comon gold... get up and run!!!!

    You are also right about your outlook. Regardless of how gloomy the future looks it is always a good idea to look at the things in life that are good and positive. For me - the reason I work, sweat, toil and stress - is my kids. They are great little people and I love them more than anything else in this world. They are the reason I quit being an armchair philosopher and started to learn about the markets, how they work and how to best preserve what little capital we have.

    As for house work my motto is "it will always be there tomorrow." :-)


  33. Eric - oh right, I forgot when I was typing to respond to that. A horrifying thought. We have a dog, but as you can see, she is a muffin-cake, and would probably perform her routine and ask for a chicken strip if someone broke in. We actually did all get our Black Belts, admittedly a while ago so when the kids were younger; but some things you don't forget. And we know our neighbours well. But when I say luck, I kind of mean it. You can only be so prepared. I remember a story about a family that was tired of all the modern nonsense and violence and war and took their family to the Falkland Islands to get away from it all!

    Chin Music - reneg is right! And I even thought about that . So I bow in shame, but have entered you in the draw. I have this Friday, which is looking bold but not impossible. I will post the bets so far soon.

    And gold is frustrating - great post, Turd - sometimes you say just what I was thinking, and other times get me thinking about things i really should be thinking about.

  34. Chiin Music - and in my defense, silver has risen so far so fast, that I cannot believe it is worth $38 an ounce.

  35. CD: If firearms are out, would a crossbow be acceptable? There are some that are not at all large, with plenty of power for short-range home defense.

  36. welcome back Afrum! You were missed :)

  37. @keszler

    I never think in terms of weapons but that sounds like a good idea to me. I'll have to take lessons since I've never shot anything in my life.

    Thaks for the idea, Dude


  38. Where to store PM's?

    Hint: How many cans of paint do you have, stored in your garage?

  39. Mammoth

    YOu can't make it too obscure. Someday, after your kids have packed you off to the nursing home, they are going to clean out your garage and toss all that crap in a dumpster!

  40. Eric,
    In Bugalkov's "The Master and the Margarita," the devil tells a merchant that after he dies, nobody will find the Gold he has stashed away until the building is demolished.

    And then the Gold went to the State.

    BTW the message from this novel:
    'Cowardice is the greatest sin'


  41. Thieves enter homes with metal detectors.
    They can find jewelry and pm faster and all of them.

  42. NOt a great close for the miners. GDX in the red. Way too many gold miners off a few pennies. Silver miners clearly win the day.

    EXK outperformed all day.


  43. You know the funny thing about EXK and FR, is bought both on them on a whim back in Aug., boy that has payed off well! And some of my better researched PMs haven't provided half as good return, go figure.

  44. I would have posted during my visit to the Northwest but I forgot my google password!! Oh well. Nice to be missed. Fantastic to see silver come roaring back torchin the bankster fraud faced DINKers. If you've not secured real money physical gold/silver then enjoy the lines waiting. I see the thief comin in the night and catching ameriCON'd pants down with paper fiat stuffed in the mattress at low interest rates to infinity. .00001 apr in jpig savings! By then the return of cash will be trash as 100 dollar bills the most counterfeited and need purging. How do governments do that? You'll get to see how in self evident truth, if you haven't studied it out in your own mind already and prepared!! Don't be an ameriCON'd paper fiat money bag holder! Still have a choice but the financial iron curtain window closing fast. Told the same to relatives and close friends while out of town. Who cares if they look at you like a leper, if it financially keeps them on a sound monetary foundation with only minimal physical purchases of gold/silver!! We'll all see clearly the truth of paper fiat money very soon; for better or worse. Worse as always for citizens as history repeats.

  45. FR has had a fantastic day today too - up about 8%. Nice.

    This is scary:

    Just had a brain wave:

    Canada has a population of around 34 million. All productive & freedom loving Americans (Surely there must be at least 10 million of you) should move across the line and help the few million (if there are that many) conservative & liberterian leaning Cndn's to highjack the government in one of the many upcoming elections. It would be a sweep. You could all get here easily by claiming refugee status like the Quaids:

    In a few years you could have landed immigrant status followed by citizenship. All you would have to do is learn the anthem, develop an affinity for maple syrup and add the obligotory "Eh" onto the end of your sentences.

    We could call it "Operation Beaver Fever"!

    Easy! Eh?

  46. @afrum,
    Did you visit my beloved Seattle? You should have said hello :)

  47. XTY

    Xty said...
    Chiin Music - and in my defense, silver has risen so far so fast, that I cannot believe it is worth $38 an ounce.

    ok ... I'll give you $1 an ounce for all you have ... that's .60c over your spot :-)

  48. In general, my miners did great today. But I've been hanging on to AEM for a long time, and it is definitely the laggard of my portfolio. I was too late to the party, I guess.

    This was a pick I got from Bob Chapman, and seems to be the only questionable piece of advice I got from him. (In general, I've made a lot of money from Chapman's advice.)

    But I ain't selling because I have faith that this is in fact a good pick and will work for me in the long run. I buy and hold miners long term -- I have yet to sell a single share.

  49. It did seem too quiet on the PMs front, so I sold off my trading AGQ for a nice profit, I suspect we will have a beatdown tonight or some fireworks tomorrow.

    !!!welcome back, afrum!!!we missed ya!!!

  50. This comment has been removed by the author.

  51. @trollercoaster,
    For pure corn play go with, TEUCRIUM CORN FUND (CORN) : NYSE Arca

  52. More suggestions on commodity and agriculture investment opportunities welcome!

  53. bought some more PSLV near the Close today.
    This chart is just lovely

  54. I had about 1/2 and 1/2 red & green today in the miners .......But afrum's back so that makes it a good day! .........Time for the rat bastards to get told again! !!!

    We all missed you afrum. ..You really should go back and read some of the concern for you that was posted!

  55. Visited Salem OR & Seattle!! We at the turd are without excuse should our financial coffers be turned to ashes with fiat monies!! From tiny tim sheitners mouth to your ears:..... .Defaulting on legal obligations of the United States would lead to sharply higher interest rates and borrowing costs, declining home values and reduced retirement savings for Americans. Default would cause a financial crisis potentially more severe than the crisis from which we are only now starting to recover.... Tim Geithner Releases Latest Mutual Assured Destruction Threat: Says "Debt Ceiling To Be Breached No Later Than May 16"
    Left without excuse. The dollar burns to ashes as the debt ceiling raised at every turn for more hot inflationary fiat monies, QE, to pump/feed the bankster fraudster beast. sheitner's a dick head. I'll leave'em to his own self floggin demise.

  56. My dad used to have saying for situations like this:

    "No matter which way you turn your ass is still behind you."

    There's no stopping it now... QE3 or bust then bust anyways.

  57. Regarding gold, isn't this pretty much what we expected, silver to rise against gold? The ratio has been predicted to narrow, and so it is -- obviously that can't happen unless gold moves more slowly than silver.

  58. @ CD

    Thanks for the chart...
    1/27: $0.60
    2/24: $0.745
    4/4: $0.925

    I noticed this gap widening also and wondered about it. I may try trading AGQ instead.

  59. Anybody owning TRE notice the action the past couple trading days.There is a spike in volume on the close and the last couple days this has resulted in a little move the past the same action has resulted in bizarre moves to the downside.

  60. Libya news conference shortly, Benflation Bernanke speaking later (but not expected to rock the boat). Could be interesting few hours for silver

  61. Well, I make a plea for afrum's sake, thinking you were gone forever, and it was simply the case of the forgotten password. Silver's meteoric rise just wasn't the same without you. Dinsters to the stars indeed!

    No more of this invading Canada, thank you very much. Unless you want to live in the very cold parts. And no more making fun of our national rodent of unusual size - RUS - a three letter acronym and you know that is one likely sign of evil.

  62. a three letter acronym and you know that is one likely sign of evil.


    Not sure what you mean..

  63. Home security, if you raise your own food it is up to you to protect it, plant or meat type. If you are your own central bank, it is up to you to protect it. Carry always carry and expect people to know that too.

  64. Anyone else checking the one minute charts for silver and gold on Netdania? Do you see how they both just sort of locked on to a small price range? Sort of like what they do every day between 5:15 and 6:00 p.m. when everything seems to be closed. Why is that? I think it did it earlier today too?

    Eric - do you get candlesticks now? I finally do - after you asked I went and stared at some for awhile and made myself explain it to myself again. Thanks for asking.

  65. What happens to commodities, especially silver if there is no QE3? Based on everything I have read and heard, it seems very unlikely, but I am curious about what people think.

  66. With Brent Crude at over $121 and WTI holding at $108 I have to wonder if US Crude isn't being messed with also just like Au and Ag.

    USO (nor some of it's calls) isn't behaving like it has previously when the MENA first started after Tunisia and Egypt really started up.
    I'm skeptical that it isn't being held back also. The spread between the two has been widening that's for sure.

    Any thoughts Turd on the US oil market being hampered by big money(Fed.)?

  67. Afrum ! Welcome back. More than a few of us were wondering what happened to ya!

    Now I read you drove(?) right past me here in Portland and didn't stop in to say 'Hi' . Color me disappointed!

  68. Silver had a good day.
    I am just going to be patient, with gold and the shares.

  69. Can't get anything up in the comments today. First time problem for me. Here's a very condensed version of what I've tried to post:

    Big winners today you may not recognize:
    CGR, LEXVF (I brought this one up a short while ago. Also look up the charts of McEwen's other companies: MNEAF and UXG).

    Turnarounds you might want to investigate:
    CROCF, MGH, BRD (the last one is down so low, might be worth a chance. Used to be favored by some bloggers).

    DBA has leaps out to 2013 for those who want more risk. The other grain etn's don't have options, do they?

    SNDXF is working on a one year cup-and-handle. Might be hitting all time highs.

    Revett way up today, but what's with GPL?

    Turd: Commodore 64s?? Brilliant!!

    Thanks for listening. from Daniel FCB (There seem to be two Daniels posting here. Obviously I'm this one.)

  70. This comment has been removed by the author.

  71. Lord Koos
    Regarding gold/silver ratio, I know that the ratio will, long term, return to aprox 16 to 1 or maybe better. I wonder if, when gold makes its next sizeabe spurt up, silver will retain it present ratio or lose ground. If much ground might it lose?

  72. One last thought: People speak of firearms here. RUGR is doing great lately, but SWHC has fallen on hard times. Time to reload on it or go with the winner so far. Just thinking about the stock aspects in terms of future societal disruptions, nothing beyond that.
    from Daniel FCB

  73. Chad,
    I think QE3 could be delayed briefly after QE2 but not for long (4-8 weeks?)
    I think silver and PM's are safe no matter what. Corrections will happen but thats normal and they will trend higher.

    Crude oil is the key and the $USD in my opinion.
    If the MENA really ignites with Iranian involvment then it won't matter if QE3 happens right away or not because PM's will follow the skyrocketing crude given that scenario.
    In that case, QE3 probably automatically follows QE2 if a big MENA war starts anyway. They will have no choice but to really keep cranking dollars out.
    Next month and May is going to be tough on the $USD with all the tax refunds and diminishing tax revenue's. A battered $USD coupled with no budget in place and a Govt. shutdown looming and Tim Geitner playing Chicken Little about the debt ceiling, it all looks rosy for PM's short and long term IMHO.
    Crude and the $USD are the key and QE3 happens sooner or a bit later but it will happen.

  74. March 1st was the first Tuesday in March and the first Tuesday after both futures and equity options had expired for the month of February

    I just took a peek at the March 1st daily chart, and it's a pretty blue candle

  75. Daniel: I'm with you on MNEAF, since way back. The story is compelling.

    also, check out CRMXF. After a long discussion with the investor relations guy, learned the Endeavor takeover is a dead duck and that Sprott has poured in 6 million dollars. Drill results to be rolling out over the next few months, and more with all that.

    And the original prospector type is still there with a huge position.

  76. Something tells me tomorrow is going to be a very big day for precious metals.

  77. I just looked also...what a nice sight!
    Could we wake up to $39?

  78. @SwampFox

    Brilliant, and not as crazy as you think. If it got that bad here I would do it. Thought about the possibility during Vietnam but college deferment and then high lottery number rendered it moot.
    Question though. Are firearms easily obtainable from our northern neighbors? There is no way they will let me across the border with even my meager 14 gun collection.

  79. @Daniel

    I haven't checked lately, but I seem to recall Olin had a nice run (makes Winchester ammo) and pays a div too.

  80. Encouraging words from Chris Waltzek on last Friday's Gold Seek Radio program:

    "The XAU gold stocks index has been winding up for months now. We saw big signs of accumulation this week. This is likely to culminate in an explosive move higher."

  81. Afrum...I forgot you said you were going to Seatle. I thought maybe the thought police got you!! Half joking.

  82. DarkPurpleHaze,
    Wake up to 39? I love it! But who can sleep when it is acting like this? I agree with you that oil is being manipulated also... if they can control oil and gold, the EE can keep the ponzi going. CNBC can explain away a silver run by the "small market" and "evil speculators."

    Every culture has its key commodity
    in India its onions
    in France its bread
    China has rice
    in USA, its oil

    If gasoline skyrockets, that is when Americans will hit the streets with placards and signs (and guns)

  83. Dr J: won't be much of a demonstration without all those 4X4's, pick up trucks and Stupid Unnecessary Vehicles

  84. Here you go folks the Headline Of The Year

    GOLD and SILVER has nowhere to go but up wayyyyy up!

  85. xty

    I'll study it more when I have the time after the tax deadline. In the meantime, if you can tell my why some candles have the color filled in and some don't I'll be a happy. The charts I look at seem to have 4 kinds of candles. Up days are either white or black (white filled in?) and down days are either red outline or solid red. I'm at work right now so I don't have one in front of me.


  86. lots of bullishness on the board. Tommorrow is turnaround Tuesday when momentum reversals often occur. Volume today at highs in GLD were really small. I know what goldseek radio has been saying about Gold breaking out but they have been saying it at every high. I am unfortunately looking for a smackdown soon. Over the next days into tax reporting mid April are not traditionally good time for PMs I am told. And there are probably only so many times that GDX will open, run up and then close at lows before price starts moving lower I would think and a correction begins. Just my two cents. Silver is untethered so it is running nicely but I do not think Gold will get its 3 taps and out and up that Santa is looking for. I think it will frustrate a while longer.

  87. @nightmoves

    A firearms license in Canada is available to anyone who can pass a weekend course (citizens and non citizens) and who deos not have a criminal record. The process - once you pass the course (two days over a weekend for all classes of firearms - long guns, black guns pistols etc and you can challenge the exam without taking the course if you know anything about firearms) is about two months. Most of this is time spent waiting for the CDN gov't to process your license.

    The license is renewed every five years (a tax grab because there is no new testing required - just your money) and you can buy as many or as few firearms as you wish.

    Long guns (shotguns, hunting rifles etc) are the easiest to purchase as they are usually transfered from a business to the new owner over computer in less than five minutes.

    Handguns and black guns (mainly AR-15 style long guns) will take anywhere from a few hours to a few days to transfer ownership and you must provide proof of a range membership or be classified as a collector.

    Permits to carry handguns for personal protection in Canada do exist but are exceedingly rare and very difficult to obtain. Trappers, free miners and a variety of other professions can carry side arms without too much hassle relatively speaking. Your local brinks guard carrying an M&P40 has a permit to carry for work - just as an example.

    Statisitcs from a few years ago (don't ask me to quote cause I ain't digging it up) showed Canada had roughly the same per capita rate of firearms ownership as most US states. Whether these stats were correct or exagerated I couldn't tell you - not my study. I can tell you that given how busy we are and how many new faces I see weekly that this would not surprise me.

    Our laws are administered federally so - with the exception of Quebec which is its own planet - the same rules pretty much apply from one end of the country to the other.

    I can't speak for other jurisdictions but I can tell you without divulging sensitive company information that shotgun (defender style) and handgun sales account for a much, much larger % of my sales than most people would think. Most non gun owning Canadians would be shocked to find out who owns them (their doctrs, dentists, hair dressers and mail man) and to what extent/volume. We have noticed that as the economy worsens and geopolitcal situations worsen that sales for these types of firearms to these types of people are growing rapidly.

    So there go you. Gun ownership in the Republik of Canukistan - in a nutshell.

  88. every software platform allows you to change your candle colors.
    Basically empty candles are up (days, hours or minutes--depending on how you set the chart)
    Filled candles are down.

    There are a few variations, but it depends on how you set your colors...

  89. OK, I spent a few minutes at I think I have it now. Up or down in terms of opening price vs closing price might not be the same as up or down in terms of closing price vs yesterdays closing price. Thus 4 types of possible candles on their charts. thanks all.

  90. Jake and Dr. J,
    I don't sleep that well either.
    How weird is it that I check Kitco for PM prices sometimes when I can't sleep right? My computers always on so checking the $USD, oil etc seems normal at any hour.
    It's great sometimes to see the PM's skyrocket at night oversea's. Hard to sleep after that happens but thats ok. Another Hong Kong and London moonshot would be so nice.

    I also have a Kitco chart app on my phone, love it!
    PM fever a bit but thats alright as long as I realize it.

    Can anyone imagine what it must have been like in the 1800's when gold strikes were happening in Nevada, California, the Yukon etc. and the intense feeling it must have been to stake a real land claim and pan, sluice or mine for gold and finding many, many nuggets of gold???

  91. E.A.
    That was startling to read eventhough I know how FUBAR our situation is.

    That was sobering and unfortunately might be the headline of the year. Geez!

  92. "Let's start with gold which, personally, I'm getting a little sick of."

    -- me too. As I learned from some wise guy, it is the holder, not the trader, who will determine the final price. That explained the difference between gold ans sliver now. Physical buying is the only language banker crooks understand, cause they own the market, they own the gov, they own the media, they own Fed's printing machine. Every PM investor need do his share to buy some physicals to help himself and all, and this strategy is working perfectly on silver. Once silver manipulation is broken thru, more physical gold buying from either enriched silver bugs or sideline watching institutions will push POG to $2000 as expected by EOY. Just my thoughts.

  93. DarkPurple

    I'm a big Klondike history buff myself, so you are making my blood boil with that kind of talk!

    I've done a little gold panning too. Mostly touristy type stuff, except for one time in a river in Alaska. I can tell you first hand that real gold panning is cold, wet, bent-over sore, miserable work! But those couple of flakes I found that time are cherished to this day.

  94. Is it any wonder that I like Eagles and Double Eagles from back around the Gold Rush days? I like to think maybe this piece went to Dawson and back, or is made from Klondike gold! You can't prove to me it ain't! Put a San Francisco mint mark on it and there's no way anyone will convince me otherwise. Aaarrrgggghhhhh!!!!

  95. re: gold rush(es)

    some struck it big

    most didn't, some of those died

    the bar keeps and hookers made out the best

    along with the merchants serving and providing

  96. I'm a kind of rock hound so panning for gold and actually finding some would be like a dream.
    I couldn't imagine what it must have been like to have a pouch of nuggets and a pistol strapped to my waist and thigh.
    How cool!

  97. According to Harvey we may get a raid tomorrow.

    1. And now for silver;

    The total silver comex OI continues to confound our bankers. They will be spending another night with fellow cohorts deciding their next move. The total comex OI came it at 139,454 rising by 1874 contracts from Friday. As I mentioned to you on several occasions, any OI greater than 135,000 causes our bankers into action trying to shake the tree and remove as many longs as possible.

    2. I think you have enough to read tonight. Tomorrow, the banking cartel will need to quell both gold and silver's huge demand as London runs out of metal. It should be an interesting day tomorrow.
    all the best.

    Lets all together now BTFD....

  98. I know Jake, buts it's nice to imagine the "what if?" part.
    The bartenders and hookers made the most and the gunsmiths.

  99. Harvey sees a raid, Turd sees them letting it run awhile

    what to do, what to do

    well, if you have staked your claim, then work it

  100. The problem with gold is that central banks have lots of physical, and so can manipulate it. Most of them don't have any silver at all so that is difficult for them to stop the bull. At any rate, I think gold is more important for them to keep low, it is the prime PM in most people's minds, and its price movement has more psychological impact.

  101. lord koos:

    what would you say about the reports of CB's having leased out or sold the physical gold, some say leveraged it at 100 to 1?

  102. Well,silver is pushing $39 and Afrum is back, now that's a good day!

    Old-Swift-Boat - I lived in Portland for several years and get back there every now and then. Great place to live! I was OPSO on an destroyer homeported there for two years, 106 miles from the ocean. Does that qualify me for riverine experience? (Just joking, there were no VC on the banks!)

  103. Sprott adding to PHYS, possibly to PSLV?:

  104. Eric#1 and Jerome: Perth Mint will both sell you silver and store it for free for life in Australia if you buy prior to May 1. After that they will impose a 1% annual storage charge. Call 800-993-8350 for more information and to set up such an account.

  105. Boy, does 38.74 look like a line in the sand this evening.

    It has been the closing high value for 13 separate 5 minute ticks since 6 p.m.

    It has popped a few pennies higher a few times but settles up against 38.74 every time and then backs off for another 5 minute bump up.

  106. Is it just me, or is it hard to tell the difference between Harvey's imagination and facts? Why, for example, is he sure that an OI of greater than 135,000 causes the bankers to "shake the silver tree". I've tried asking him questions but he never once has answered my question straight.

  107. Looks like a good old-fashioned FUBM going on in gold. Wake up to 39 and 1441? (but I do check in the night too, leave my laptop on beside the bed = junkie!).

  108. Nice discussion today about hiding Physical.

    Last October our house was robbed while we were away at work. This left quite an impression on us.

    Here is a news article about a similar incident that ended differently. Seems the homeowner was protecting his own...


  109. Folks...
    I can use your assistance please .. any recommendations on silver bullion (100 oz. online) bar suppliers that you would recommend?
    This site seems to have a great deal of individuals with experience in this area ..
    Thanks in advance!


  110. ClaimGuy - every now and then the highs and lows on the one minute chart seem to get locked in a tight range, or bump consistently off numbers - I think it might be computers buying and selling.

  111. Mr. Sprott looks like he wants to push gold right on thru that 1440 mark.... all by himself. Good luck to you sir.

  112. what does anyone really care about the minute to minute stuff

    I know some of you trade the futures and all that, but I'd rather go to dinner with a run in my stocking than get involved in something I don't understand

    I staked out my positions, and I'm riding the wave


  113. Go BULL dogs. How could you not root for BULL-dogs.

  114. The Butler did it with a the dome.

  115. Turdle GG -
    I know this will get flak on here but I must concur with your comment and point out that Harvey Organ has been demonstrably wrong both with regard to easily verifiable facts as well as mathematics. He relies on his assumptions and does not let the facts get in the way of them.

  116. I have a friend who keeps her silver tucked away in her closet. She lives in California. If there is a large earthquake she may not be able to get her silver stash out of her closet before her house collapses. Should she (can she?) insure her silver stash against loss or theft?

  117. Don't think I'm not keeping an eye on you, Mr. Ferguson.

  118. Leonard & Turdle

    I concur. I first started reading Harvey when recommended by TF. After a while I stopped. Not on my bookmark list anymore.

  119. Molly,

    I have been using
    I have also bought from, but I think their premium is a bit higher per oz.
    Best deals have been at the local coin shop. I walk out with the metal and there is no postal carrier who might talk about heavy packages...

  120. BLYTHE!!!

    what size shoe do you wear?

  121. Leonard -
    All the more reason to rely on Turd, where it's always crystal clear what is opinion and what is fact.

  122. MollyRatchet

    Here's a place that seems to have good prices. I've never ordered from them though.

  123. Dr Jerome,
    I agree completely with your comments. I was going to give a try as I browsed through their web site. APMEX's premiums seem to be on the higher end as you state.
    Thanks for the advice !!


  124. MolleyRathet -

    Gainesville has 100 oz NTR bars for $1 over spot. Tulving has several varieties of 100 oz bars as low as $0.54 over spot if you buy 5.

  125. Molly,

  126. Eric#1

    Thanks ... good site. I will give them a call in the morning to check out the details ..
    Thanks for the response..


  127. Our last mail order has been suspicious. The postman did not place the peach colored slip in our box for the last delivery. We had the tracking number and went to the post office. They had to search around for quite some time before locating the package in that postman's "sorting area". My guess is he was planning on sitting on the peach delivery slip until the 5 day claim window expires, then the package would be returned to the sender and unfortunately lost on the return trip.

    Needless to say we are making any new orders that require USPS delivery.

  128. *NOT making any new orders via USPS.

  129. Darth, Pablo ..

    Wholy moly, ya got a few ... thanks. I can assume that these sites are in good standings with this crowd of posters ?.. I am sure word would get around fast in this blog site if there was an issue ..

    Thanks again to all the responses...


  130. We should be concerned any time price goes up on light volume as it's vulnerable to a sharp sell-off be it profit taking or EE attack so Harvey has a point. That's not to say with certainty we are about to go down again but we have to be cautious until the new buying volume emerges to establish a firm base above 38.

  131. As I mentioned earlier I took my trading money off the table this am.

    The dip today was pretty lame and I didn't buy although as it turned out it was enough of a dip to play on.

    I think the weak dip supports the latest Wicked Witch video. It wasn't the EE. They laid off today. Time to go watch it again and write down the level they will let it rise to.

  132. Google Trends
    How to buy silver

  133. Old Navy
    Consider yourself an honorary member of Squadron 1 Coastal Division 13. (Patroled the coastal, river and delta areas of the Mekong)

    Great day for our silver market ! Gonna count up my loose change vase and secure a few more ounces for my poke.

  134. First off, thanks to Turd and the rest of you, been following this blog for about 6 weeks now, and ZeroHedge for sometime prior to that.

    I have a serious question to ask, and would like you, dear reader, to offer your opinions. I’ve been buying silver and to a much lesser extent, gold for 2 years.

    I decided to remove 25K from my 401K in the form of a loan, dump 10-20K more from savings on top and buy more physical, likely from Tulving or Gainsville coins. I’ve deal with APMEX in the past, but the former two seem to be better for larger orders.

    My question concerns your opinions on QEx; I believe the FED CANNOT stop the QE program as there is no organic demand for treasuries, and furthermore, if they do, the market will crash. This cannot be allowed as the market is the one thing they can point at as an economic success.

    However, I think the FED may pause between QE2 and QE3, allow the markets to catch cold, then continue the pump after the proles and congress begs them open the floodgates.

    If they pause, and if it is credible, do you think there would be a crash in PMs like there was at the end of 08, making a PERFECT time to BTFD?

    Or is NOW the time to buy, get on the escalator, and not wait for a moment that never comes?
    What would you do, and what logic leads you to that descisoin? Buy now, wait, mix it up?

    I’m going to order 50oz. today from Gainsville to dry run the wire transfer from my bank…401K check will be here by Monday.

    Thanks for help with this conundrum!

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