Friday, April 8, 2011

Really Rolling

Just a couple of quick charts to start a new thread.

First, here and actual chart of the POSX. Note the severity of the drop through the old lows as, once again, stops are triggered and the move accelerates. From here, there's nothing keeping it from dropping below 75. Surely, The Fed will roll out some crusty, old, keynesian hack geezer to to try to talk it up next week. Will it help? Maybe, in the short run, kind of like last week. Will it make a long term difference? No.
Next, let's look at WTI. Just kickin ass. Brent crude is over $124 as I type so it looks like it will keep on going today. As we move back through levels set three years ago, we have to suspect there will be some resistance along the way. However, these are levels from three years ago, set under entirely different circumstances, so really I'm just guessing. What I do know is, there doesn't look to be much in the way of chart resistance between here and 113.50 or so and, beyond there, 122.
Finally, take a look at DrC! It has clearly broken out of its corrective downtrend of almost two months and is headed higher. Looks almost certain to challenge the old highs around 465 and, from there, it will jump back toward the primary trendline, somewhere near 480 or 490. Wow!

OK, my point is, all three of these charts support even higher PM prices. As discussed earlier this week when gold broke out, there's not much to hold it back until it approaches round-number resistance at 1500. Silver will keep heading higher. If mid-to-late February can be used as a guide, then it is headed to 44 or 45. I promised you this month would be fun....and it's got a long ways to go!

More later this morning. TF

253 comments:

  1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  2. Looks like Arian Silver is going to gap up.

    Looks good for a lot of mining stocks!

    Next stop 50$ Silver

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  3. Best guess on how long the dollar can stay above water? it's at 75.2 as I type this. I know the charts are all "good for pm's", and that's awesome and stuff, but doesn't that really mean that it's only awesome and stuff if the dollar doesn't become the next toilet paper product and we're not rolling around our paper moola in wheelbarrow's?

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  4. Evil: use a secure tunnelling proxy at www.overplay.net

    Only NSA could trace that.

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  5. Exactly one year ago today I made my first PM purchase. I had been reading on ZH this guy with a big yellow hat that called himself Turd. I have been making purchases of physical ever since and as of this morning, the wife and I have had our savings increase 23% in value. Thank you Turd for all you have done and keep on doing.

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  6. Regarding those waiting for dips

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsz6oGLgR7M&feature=player_embedded#at=64

    The Black Petals "Runaway Train"

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  7. Dean Wormer: You have made my day. I'm very, very happy for you!

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  8. And then there's this...From Santa, with love:


    The System Has Failed
    Posted: Apr 07 2011 By: Jim Sinclair Post Edited: April 7, 2011 at 11:22 pm
    Filed under: General Editorial
    Dear CIGAs,
    The system has failed. It failed the day that Lehman Brothers was flushed.
    There is a financial condition of an ocean of liquidity making the broken remains of a failed financial system in the Western world opaque.
    There is no future failure coming. What is coming is a mass realization that exposes the fact there is no functioning system under all this liquidity. It is a sharp contraction in confidence that lies down the road. Realize this and know that there is one more step you need to make.
    Having the largest pile of gold and silver without considering one more step might make you a modern Midas.
    There is more to insurance than simply financial. Shortages of goods and services will occur because of currency induced cost push inflation resulting in dislocations of the organization and compensation in the distribution functions. That means there could be ample food in the system but little available on the shelf of your local market.
    Because of the ill-understood world shaping changes in the Middle East, the impact of “Peak Oil” on price has been sharply accelerated. Public utilities considered now as a human right will prove themselves to be privileges. Expectation of power on a constant basis will become a hollow expectation.
    If you do not have the experience of living in India and Africa in the 80s, you have no idea of how to live in a Western World experiencing long term currency induced cost push inflation. Self reliance will become as important as your holdings in gold. To have a huge pile of gold but remain totally dependent on the infrastructure of the Western World system is a serious mistake. You would have substantial capital but lack goods and services to buy. You will be able to afford much, but much will be either in short supply or illegal.
    You know more about what is occurring than 99% of investors.
    You are the 1% that knows the SYSTEM HAS FAILED.
    You are the 1% that knows the system failed the minute Lehman Brothers was flushed.
    You are the 1% not looking for some failure in the future but know there is no system below the flood of liquidity.
    You are the 1% that has been exposed to the concept of currency induced cost push.
    You are the 1% that can understand the future.

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  9. Anecdote A:

    A friend has a rich relative telling him for years to buy gold and silver. Friend still hasn't bought.

    Anecdote B:

    I urged a friend of a friend to buy silver. She got a PAMP bar at $29/oz. Told her to back up the truck, it's going to $50 and beyond. Says she doesn't have any more $$, it's tied up in real estate.

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  10. Hey Evil,

    What is your opinion of the less than 1% of US population that invests in PMs? What differentiates them from the masses, is it spiritual, mental or just pure chance?

    Would be interesting to get the opinion of the dark side.

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  11. Yesterday I bought silver from the dip. It was 39.60

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  12. Turd, Jim Rawles suggests selling some physical at $41.90 and putting it in to tangibles. What do you think? And, if someone were to want to sell physical, where's the best place to sell?

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  13. R man J: I only started thinking about gold and silver after lurking on ZH for a while. Then I saw TF's posts there.

    Then I became a regular visitor at KWN. I was hooked, captured by the shiny side.

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  14. Evil, is that you SilverGoldSilver? Only he could express himself in such a cryptic manner.

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  15. Michelle, by the time you should be selling physical, you'll have no problem doing so. Your neighbors will probably be begging you to sell.

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  16. @Xty and Ginger-

    Let's see, a duck walks into a hardware store with a 100oz Engelhard Ag bar to trade for corn futures for his peeps. Store owner says, "sorry Buddy, this is an honest joint. You're looking for the COMEX two doors down. Beware, they don't call it a pit for nothing. Don't take any paper fiat"(formerly known as wooden nickels).

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  17. It looks like silver is just coiling up again ready to spring.
    Impressive buying pressure in both PM's thus far inspite of small beat downs.
    One piece of negative MSM news and both the PM's will break higher.
    I hope it's not Israel/Gaza etc.
    The Govt. shutdown newscycle should pick up momentum as the day rolls along.
    Your right Turd..."entirely different circumstances this time..."

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  18. Gold is almost certainly being held back here. Much like Tuesday, I suspect we'll see it take off galloping mid-day if there is no contarian news to kick it down. The miners were primed to run yesterday and then the Japanese earthquake news scared the markets off. Today is set to see everyone scared out yesterday or too hesitant jump right in.

    Gold to $1,380+ today? I think today has $20+ potential. Anyone else think we'll see gold play catch-up with silver percentage-wise a little later?

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  19. Path,
    Better wait and buy the dip on corn. Crop report
    a little bearish this morning, corn 15c lower in
    OTC markets. A hard break should trigger end user
    buying.

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  20. Scott - what are you looking at that gives you a glimpse into what would be a very happy event. Arian was one of my better researched picks, and it has been driving me crazy as it sits flat while silver doubled.

    I finally had a post vanish! Wrote a silly, long comment, basically daring Turd to post a new thread, and not only did we get a new thread, I lost a post that was a joke.

    I think today is going to be a very good day. While I cannot give Turd the credit for my understanding of the upcoming fiat disaster and the likely rise in precious metals, I can certainly give him a great deal of credit for helping us get our affairs in a better state. We were heading here, but this has really helped focus me. I have not made oodles of money, but I am a cautious type. But we have made at least half an oodle and for that Turd gets much credit - but it is more that I do not feel like the only one anymore. It is the whole package that has influenced and helped me - the original focus of the blog - the end of the Keynesian experiment. But you know, even as it ends in disaster, I'll bet that the economists around will all find some other explanation. War, earthquakes, riot, whatever. P.J. O'Rourke in one of his excellent books shows that all famine is a result of government policy, but is always blamed on weather. Weather makes things worse, but goverment seeds the problem.

    Nuff said - Turd is the man, and today might be historic.

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  21. Art: I was thinking it looked a little suspicious yesterday when it couldn't quite take out the old highs. Sold half my July calls.
    Please keep us updated with your thoughts. TF

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  22. The buck is about to break 75.

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  23. I want to add an addendum here. I didn't feel strongly enough about it to include it in the regular thread.

    Always be on the lookout on days like today for an ORD. We've shot out to new highs and everyone's excited. In the past, The Cartel has used days like these to ruthlessly attack and paint the chart with an ORD. Not sayin, just sayin...thus the comment and note a specific post on this issue.

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  24. Anybody else read Harvey Organs post last night?
    He had a article about Ron Paul talking about the mint and the feeling is that the mint is getting silver rounds from outside the country to make Eagles with.
    I don't like the sounds of that for one reason.
    I can't help but think of the gold/tungsten stories from China etc.

    Has anyone ever heard of anyone actually testing a new Gold or Silver coin from the mint for it's metalurgical content?
    Can't help but wonder about that.

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  25. xty

    The "economists" already have their explanation: NO ONE could have seen it coming! The MSM will be in full agreement.

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  26. CMT, that's the thing. If you wait until then, what would you get for it other than worthless FRNs?

    To clarify, a sale would occur only to gain enough FRNs to put in to some security improvements on the property. It's not something that really should be left to the last minute.

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  27. I really need to start doing some DD on copper plays. Probably should have done that back when I first found this blog, especially with the charts you keep pointing out. Yukon has the best miner out there I think, I'd feel comfy throwing money at his pick without even doing any DD and that is rare for me.

    I don't know if anyone has noticed, but silver is up 7% this week alone. :)

    I'm with Scott, if today isn't a winner for most of these miners I am going to be a little upset!

    I was thinking last night with how hard $38 was defended last week, I am a little nervous about the lack of intervention this week, especially when we pushed up through $40 last night. I feel we should have been met with some kind of resistance, silver blew through that level like it wasn't even a speed bump we were all waiting for.

    I can't help but wonder what TPTB are up to. This week seems to have gone back to the days of old where Wednesdays are our setbacks and the rest of the week is left to regular investors to do what we want to the price. Those same kind of weeks were the ones where Fridays saw anti-commodity news come out after the market closed.

    The dollar needs help right now and commodities need to be reeled in, just trying to think like the TPTB do.

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  28. Get out of the way,anything can happen in the US of A,statue of liberty sinking in the harbour ...............under the weight of the totally tanking US$.Huge human hardship cost to all this,buy Silver and keep the faith and you will always have a meal to eat.

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  29. Just catching up on all of last night's comments..

    Xty,
    Congrats!..on your $40 call ...and no.. I don't know that bad duck/corn joke..lol.

    Kiwi,
    I was being sarcastic/lame attempt at humor last night. We agree.

    StrongSideJedi,
    I appreciated reading your comments this morning. Unbelievable ..UNbelievable how the media is trying to steer us. They have blood on their hands when this all plays out. They should be warning.. not setting traps.

    averagejoe,
    I feel EXACTLY like you. I have never been on the forefront of anything like this. Always missed it/didn't see it coming. Now that we know who to hang around and trust (Turd) ...we will do much better this time. I officially tore up my sheeple membership card.

    Is Evil for real?

    pathoekstra,
    lol.. ..They also call hell a pit. Just sayin'..

    Scott,
    I am crossing my fingers about some of our fav miners. I am kicking myself for not taking some shares out of slx and putting it over into rvmid ...as I have waaaay more in slx and wish I had done the opposite. "/ ...But it's a happy morning! :]

    Turd,
    I am one of your slowest learners and profiters but I am trying real hard. Thank you for all you teach and do here. Seriously ..a heartfelt thanks. If I just have a bit more time to grow some of my paltry investments and prepare a bit more.. it will make all the difference. I have to be more slow about it and more careful than you but you are making a difference in my life!...and so many others here..

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  30. I forgot to add, the Silver Liberation Army grew by at least one more yesterday!! This is the 3rd person I've had message me this month just from me writing about silver and the moves it is making. More proof we don't have to push our way of life on to people, the smart ones who are paying attention are figuring it out on their own and planning accordingly. Nice to see people waking up at a faster pace lately. :)

    Exact message I had waiting for me:

    "jenny told me u buy silver/gold. how and where? stocks to dangerous right now. besides when the zombies attack i need to be able to trade..."

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  31. Morning all! Tired Kiwi. Happy Kiwi.

    Michelle-

    As they say about real estate, I think it will be all about location. I'll never be a farmer, but as things deteriorate (and remember, we will probably recognize it long before the masses) I plan on getting out of the burbs and into some small town with good neighbors, close to farmland and good water and a coal burning fuel plant in coal country, I think that gives me the best odds of at least keeping a minimal standard of living going through the troubles. So I'd wait on buying those tangibles until you are in the place where you plan on riding this mess out.

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  32. Vernon, I knew Dean Wormer, the actor John Vernon. Nice guy. May he rest in peace. I dated his daughter for a time. Dean Wormer's daughter.

    you are in good company, R.T.

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  33. ORD = outside reversal day. chart pattern

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  35. @darkpurplehaze

    Call me paranoid but ever since I saw a video of a government issued russian gold coin "rust" I have been buying bars from Great Panther and First Majestic. Not that I don't trust the Canadian mint - I just no longer trust government.... not that I ever really did I guess.

    Ah yes - new levels of paranoia and fear to go along with the collapse of modern currencies. Pleasant isn't it?

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  36. Thanks! Abbreviation overload on my part.

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  37. RE: ORD....I would not mind a BTFD opportunity at $39.20

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  38. patho - Duck walks into a jewelry/pawn shop, and says "Got any silver?" Store owner says, "Sorry, we don't sell precious metals to ducks." Duck comes in the next day, and asks "Got and silver?" Again, the store owner sends him away. Happens day after day. Finally the store owner can't take it anymore and tells the duck "If you come in here one more time and ask for silver, I will nail your bill to the counter." Next day duck comes in and asks "Do you have any nails for sale?" The owner replies "No, this is a jewelry store, of course I don't have any nails." So the duck says "Got any silver?"

    (And then the store owner says "No, in the week you have been coming here the price went from $40 to $200 and I sold out, now get out of my store before Ginger, Eric and Xty home can you.")

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  39. Art thanks. I sold my CORN shares yesterday when the earthquake news broke. I am waiting for its next move and hopefully after ADM and Cargill beat it down.

    How can the crop reports change so much from week to week?

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  40. Justin

    Just so you know, Yukon would be totally pissed at what you just said. The last thing he (or any of us) wants is for someone to buy something just because he mentioned it, without doing their own DD :)

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  41. Marvelous interview with James Turk by KWN a @:

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/4/8_Turk_-_Twin_Dollar_Destroyers_to_Create_Earthshaking_Collapse.html

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  42. Ginger-

    Yep, I figured you were just tweeking me, but boy, does thinking about it churn up a lot of emotions..... happy about trying to take care of myself, but totally fearful about what's happening to my country, which was, I truly believe, man's best chance to create a noble society and lead to true civilisation. Seem's such a silly idea these days....sigh.

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  43. Can you guys sense that?
    The pause?
    The calm before the storm.
    The retreat of the waves before the tsunami.
    No disrespect to all Japanese friends with that analogy.

    Word verification: rooduck (hat tip to Xty)

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  44. Ginger - obviously switch silver for corn when telling this joke. As long as you use a good irritating duck voice for the "got any corn?" part, this joke is very reliable. Not as good as the unprintable joke about McGregor the fence builder, but a solid kid joke. Mustn't waylay the thread, but my favourite polite joke is about a pirate and in a quiet thread moment I will tell it.

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  45. Yesterday, I had totally decided to sell a miner today. Just bought one instead.

    Greed has taken a turn at the wheel!

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  46. hehehehehehe! gov goon shutdown. jpig has no funding to pound PM's.

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  47. Best way of testing any silver coin is by the ring made when the coin is rattled onto any surface,try cupro nickel,brass,plated steel,nickel,etc,then Silver at following different grades .400,.500,.800,.900,.925,.999,etc.You will see that each coin makes a different sound,Silver has its own ring to varying degree,s and this is impossible to fake,clean small section check rag goes black,also weigh coin,weight very hard to fake,if not very,very hard.Then you move onto melting,cutting the side of the coin (as done in ancient Greece,Rome,etc) to check not plated,then examining with spectrometer to check metal composition and then ultimately melting to check total metal composition.Plating a coin will not give the same ring as solid,therefore easy to check,if you suspect it could be steel (a lot of Chinese fakes are) test with a magnet,Silver is always alloyed or debased with base metals never steel so there should be no attraction to a magnet ever.

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  48. lol Xty. Very cute joke. Canned duck meat.. ..mmmmm..

    Not sure I should throw this out there but I'm finding that this little miner, Prodigy Gold (KXLAF) has seen some good news of late. It's outperforming some of my small miners that I had more confidence in. ...DYODD!

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  49. @Sumo,

    I also started reading ZeroHedge daily about 18 months ago and began to single out Turd and one or two others as junior santas to whom I must take heed.

    I had been 10% invested in physical PMs since 1999; but in 2010 I threw everything I had including some zero interest credit into a 50:1 weighted silver/gold physical purchase blitz. Today I am at 50% PMs.

    I know this is far beyond the recommended level of exposure, but there is no rehab for a metals junkie. Crazy thought: one of my simple pleasures in life is listening to Eric King as he faithfully introduces the "Weekly Metals Wrap".

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  50. JoeKa - do you have a good recipe for that? Rooduck sounds like something I would can - as in I would rue the day that I canned that duck.

    I think this might be the morning beat down - gold is down about 3 bucks, and silver looks like it might slide.

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  51. Big fat red developing now.

    Word verification: suckin (heck yeah!)

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  52. @Evil
    Could you please elaborate more on your weekend plans?

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  53. What a beautiful morning. Dew on the grass. Birds chirping. Silver punching Bylthe in the kisser. Perfect. Except one little thing:

    How much longer will the short gold miners be able to keep the likes of AUY, NG and EGO at bay? I'm putting lots of money on these guys. THey will lag only for so long.

    SK

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  54. Posted this last night about go'vt shutdown.

    What you need to know about a government shutdown
    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article27424.html

    Item #6: The Federal Reserve will continue to operate normally during a government shutdown. The Federal Reserve is not part of the U.S. government.

    It won't matter though, as the last line says: "The U.S. financial system is dying, and nothing that the Republicans or the Democrats are doing right now is going to change that."

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  55. Locked and loaded with rooduck in my barrels and some serious defethering on my mind.

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  56. Last night the family was sitting around chatting and somehow the subject came up that I aspired to be a scary grandpa someday, and of course wife and daughter just laughed and said there's nothing scary about you! So I said I could make something up, and my daughter said "yeah, you can tell about the days when you were hunkered down in your bunker with your gold and your canned bacon!" LOL

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  57. Wow - all green, except for CZN which I knew was a silly thing to buy but bought it anyway. A greed talking play. I was thinking of selling something today too, Eric, but I don't see anything I really want out of. Except I am getting rather tired of YRI, which will leap to $14 as soon as I sell.

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  58. Michelle, if the USD is truly worthless when you want to sell, then you'll be exchanging your PMs for land and livestock - but let's hope it doesn't come to that, or else we have a whole host of new problems.

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  59. R man J

    Me too buddy.

    Sometimes I just go back and listen to archived old ones just for fun. Can't get enough of the "Weekly Metals Wrap"

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  60. And GPR is back over $4 (in Canadian bucks on the TSX)! I am still underwater, but that one I have faith in - and being a lame person, I really like the panther on their rounds.

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  61. Just bot some May 43s.
    We'll see. Again, be on the lookout for a prowling Blythe, hoping to paint the chart.

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  62. kiwi,
    I totally understand where you are coming from. In quiet moments sometimes.....I can't even believe this is happening. I just sort of always stupidly believed that American leaders would without doubt..always protect the American people, love their/our country, and 'do the right thing'. I couldn't have been more nieve or blind.

    We are all so busy working, living our lives and trusting TPTB. No longer. And I believe that this is such a shock of realization that you genuinely do have to mourn this. The loss of one's country or realization that things are not as you thought.. is more than a sobering process. It's tragic. I honestly mourn all of this and regret it and go from total sadness/despair to digging down deep and realizing that all any of us can do is prepare. But ..yeah. It is quiet a process of feeling the loss. Almost like a death. You go from sadness, anxiety, anger, acceptance ..and then ultimatley.. action.

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  63. Hi Eric,

    Looked over Allied, loved the financials, not crazy about p/e, but....thank you for the tip as I knew nothing about gold miners and hadn't started really researching. Will probably buy some with my new account. For now, just bought back my EXK (at a 12% premium mind you!). Thankfully, only sold portion of the holdings - 'cause there was no friggin' dip!

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  64. Eric,
    It's not just based on him mentioning it, I happen to have done DD on most of his personal picks before I found his blog, he knows what he is doing. His copper pick has been on my watch list for a while and I am not mentioning it by name because I don't want anyone assuming that it's a good pick and then go throw money at it blindly.

    When I said I haven't done any DD that excludes TA. The first thing I do when I find a pick to add to my watch list is look at it's chart and historical performance. I've been watching the chart on this one for a while but have yet to do any researching beyond that, haven't even looked at the company website yet. Been too big on silver and REE miners to expand out into other vehicles.

    Just to clear things up for regulars and lurkers, I wasn't trying to suggest anyone find the stock I referred to and throw money at it. Just made a random statement that I probably should have elaborated on, didn't realize how it would possibly be interpreted.

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  65. Re ORD

    I don't know much about technicals, but don't outside reversals have an engulfing pattern of higher hi's and lower lows?

    If so, where are the lower lows? Are you saying they are forming?

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  66. Xty,
    I will look forward to that joke ;) .....and hang in there with CZN!....well, that is unless you don't want to.. but I see/hope for good things out of them!

    Eric,
    What??......no salmon in that bunker?? :]

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  67. Forces of Evil sure are trying hard to get us under 40 again, so far no luck. Somewhat tough to do when DXY:IND sits on the brink of freefall :)

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  68. Path, Report was not really bearish. Trade was expecting a lower ending stocks number and USDA
    left it the same, therefore the bearish reaction.
    Got to feed the bull. Fact is corn is in a rationing market, price will have to work hard to curtail demand. I'm not good at charting,
    but looks like July corn futures have an $8.00 target. I will be waiting to BTFD. I would expect significant buying on a 30c break. Will be hard for corn to break much with energy higher and dollar crashing.

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  69. Justin

    I didn't mean it as a smackdown, just more of an LOL. Sorry if that didn't come across right. Still, as a note of caution to any newbs on the blog, ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE!!

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  70. Just look at what Irene is doing. I mention Allied Nevada to her and she is going over that thing with a fine tooth comb! THAT'S how it should be done! THAT"S how you really take ownership of the idea.

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  71. R man J: our long-term investments were 75% PMs (bullion) and 25% miners, mainly rare earths, uranium, strategic metals. Ratios have changed a bit due to market gains. I shifted from gold + silver even split PMs to mostly silver.

    As the great man said, get right and sit tight.

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  72. Ginger

    I bought junior miss eric#1 a case of canned bacon for Christmas one year as a joke. She was not amused.

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  73. They can't knock Silver and Gold down, the 10 year T bill yield is rising and the Dollar is collapsing.

    The system hangs by a thread.

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  74. Irene - re the conversation last night:

    I have 4 gold miners and 6 silver miners, and about 80% in silver money wise. That is in my all metals, crazy account. Outside of there we are probably closer to 50/50, not knowing which metal to choose I suppose. So I should probably move something over to the gold side, but as we are more balanced outside, I think I will stick to the heavy silver weighting in this account. While gold is showing signs of breaking out, the silver gold ratio is still way out of whack.

    What is your balance like? If I remember correctly, you were wondering about moving into more gold miners, and looking for any info. I do not like Yamana even though I own them. I also have SSL (Sandstorm), MMM (Minco), and CMD (Commander). Not in this account, but also WDO (Wesdome). All either on the tsx or the tsx venture. I own them for various reasons, some historic, so please check them out carefully - and please anybody, let me know if there is a problem looming with any of these. I do not keep up on them as I should.

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  75. Turd,
    Thanks for that Santa post. He mentioned the "day that Lehman Brothers was flushed". That really resonated with me on a day like today when some of those that were anointed as Too Big Too Fail may be feeling some pain for being short silver. Did I ever tell you I worked for Lehman for 10 years, right till the end? Schadenfreude, revenge, whatever - all nasty human tendencies, but who can hold them back?

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  76. Justin

    My only copper play is CUU.v
    My boss showed me this stock @.60. Just wish I bought more:(

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  77. Those who are invested in Canadian Zinc, you may want to go and look about their permit being pushed back. I remember reading something about how the administrators they were appealing to decided to delay things to be more bureaucratic (forgot the real reason). I am all for Canadian Zinc, but I am assuming it is the permit news that you are really waiting on. It seemed like it was gonna be pushed back to late summer, but not sure. Just food for thought. Maybe someone else has better information than this regarding this subject :)

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  78. R man J said...

    Hey Evil,

    What is your opinion of the less than 1% of US population that invests in PMs? What differentiates them from the masses, is it spiritual, mental or just pure chance?

    1. They think for themselves.

    2. They think outside the box.

    3. They develop their innate skills of logic and reasoning.

    4. They question authority.

    5. They have an unquenchable thirst for knowledge.

    6. They research and direct the focus of their minds in order to answer the questions their minds internally generate.

    7. They tie the contents of their minds to reality.

    8. They define their terms and know their meanings.

    9. They know that they know what they know because they know the meaning of the word knowledge.

    10. They integrate the knowledge that they have acquired into a logical rational system of belief and form from it new concepts and ideas.

    11. They engage in creative thinking and produce new ways of looking and seeing reality conceptually.

    12. They know who they are, have mastered the skill of self control and are goal oriented.

    13. They have absolute faith in the ability of their minds to know the truth.

    14. Truth is the ultimate goal of their analysis and of everything they focus their minds upon.

    15. They arrive at truth by reasoning from the facts and evidence their thinking and sense provide.

    ReplyDelete
  79. Non -essential personnel?

    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - In the event of a government shutdown the top regulator of commodities and futures trading would be reduced to 25 employees on Monday from the agency's 675 workers, according to a plan released on Friday. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission plan comes as President Barack Obama said Thursday night that some progress was made in budget talks with House Speaker John Boehner and Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid, but he didn't announce a deal to avert a looming government shutdown. Government operations are funded through Friday at midnight and would partially shut down Saturday morning without a spending deal. The 25 employees would be permitted to continue working because of a determination that without them there would be an "imminent risk to the protection of property."



    Yeah, like people with torches?

    ReplyDelete
  80. Turd,

    Missed you last night during all the fireworks... if there was any way to wake you up, we would have (Turd Hot Line?)...lol!

    Fun... fun... fun!

    ReplyDelete
  81. I know you weren't coming after me Eric, you're one of the good guys here!

    Just was trying to shed some light on why I said what I said to any new readers skimming through the comments today.

    PS-that same person I seem to get into it with here every now and then when he shows up, he came attacking me on my blog the other day and I told him if I caught him pumping even just one more stock here I would be sending an email to the S.E.C. with all the screen shots of his posts I've been saving along with stats on how those picks were doing when he recommended them. Just their ridiculous performance when he recommends them will be enough to get someone over at the S.E.C. curious and request his Google account info to see what all he has been up to on the interweb. Funny how he has fallen off again when the mention of the legality of his actions is brought up. I should go back and see if he started deleting posts again like he did last time.

    ReplyDelete
  82. Canned bacon? Now I am getting an education beyond my furthest expectations. I thought whole canned chickens were it - but beef and now bacon? And I am a Canadian but I didn't think even we canned bacon. Double smoked, yumm, canned, not so yumm I am guessing.

    ReplyDelete
  83. People with torches, lol. Good one!

    Since the CFTC does nothing anyway, shut them down completely.

    ReplyDelete
  84. And that is about the worst Christmas present I have ever heard of. Did you share the dog's house for a while?

    ReplyDelete
  85. Strong buying support in both PM's continue, really impressive.

    ReplyDelete
  86. @Eric#1

    You brought back a memory from the mid-70s. As recent newlyweds, we spent our first Christmas with my new in-laws. I had a couple of nice presents for my wife, but insisted she open two other ones first: first, a rotary apple peeler and then a hand-cranked churn with a 2:1 crank ratio. Look on mother-in-law's face was mixture of bafflement and regret and didn't change much as the other presents were opened.

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  87. I eat up ever corn comment you print. When I was a kid, those silver silos of guvmint corn surplus were everywhere. (The equivalent of buy physical.) Talk about "Do they care about us?" Have you seen any guvmint surplus grain silos anywhere? I don't think so.

    ReplyDelete
  88. Do you guys think we can build a solid support level here?
    Sure is shaping up that way for the moment.
    YES YES YES

    Sumo I still have that dry powder waiting. Geez those dips just haven't been around all week :(,:)

    ReplyDelete
  89. Still slightly peeved that there was no dip for me to put my profits into yesterday. But I bought forty oz of Ag at $40.00 early this morning (France time) to celebrate this landmark!

    (Not as daft as it sounds - I wanted a slight hedge against this thing running off to the sky without ever dipping below $40 again... the rest of the fiat is sitting patiently for $39.xx IF it comes this afternoon/evening. Otherwise it's getting ploughed back into paper)

    ReplyDelete
  90. Xty - a tip o' the hat to you!

    Good call :)

    ReplyDelete
  91. Turd,

    Going for 43 next month? Gutzy move. I picked up a little AGQ after reading that...seems a pretty bullish call to me. If we dip back, I'll add...otherwise it's time to ride the bull!

    Thanks for your words...

    ReplyDelete
  92. Still expecting a smackdown in silver if we get a correction in stocks.

    ReplyDelete
  93. Last DXY:IND 75.039
    Sheesh, 74s here we come.

    ReplyDelete
  94. Good Morning All. I'm glad I bought back into SLW yesterday but wish I had bought more! I'm just wondering now at what level I should look to add to my position. SK and DPH your thoughts, short squeeze still coming?

    ReplyDelete
  95. Dark Purple Haze said…
    “Has anyone ever heard of anyone actually testing a new Gold or Silver coin from the mint for it's metallurgical content?”
    - - - - - - -
    No, but I have drilled through pennies in order to use them as washers for home-projects*, and noticed the newer pennies do look a little different, on the inside, than the older ones.

    * Why not? Pennies are cheaper than washers!

    -Mammoth

    ReplyDelete
  96. Scott,

    CZN's review board schedule:

    http://www.reviewboard.ca/upload/project_document/1301669451_Technical_meeting_and_revised_hearing_schedule.PDF

    CZN has submitted their reports. The various Ministry departments now want to hold a technical session - most of the day (April 12) will be spent dealing with water quality issues.

    The ministry's also want CZN to do their initial homework - CZN's reports and documents submitted are quite long and detailed and the ministry dept's essentially want CZN to tell them what they're looking at, what it means, where the info is, etc. Or that's what I believe anyways :)

    Election May 2nd. On balance, conservative win positive for czn. Ministry technical reports due May 5.

    Expect a decision July/August 2011. No guarantees of anything in this case and have always taken a 50/50 approach.

    ReplyDelete
  97. Just musing and rambling above like Scott does but with considerably more age on me. Keep it up Scott you are definitely on the right track, and WOW, at such a tender young age. You are also IMHO the hope of the future of your generation. I hope for one, we are witnessing the development of a future Senator or higher in Scott. I appreciate you older more experienced ones giving Scott lots of encouragement. Keep on a rambling son.

    ReplyDelete
  98. O.k., so Silver has crossed the $40.00/oz line and Gold is charging higher. But before you over-gloat, consider this:

    With food, gasoline, and other necessities rising in price – are PM’s actually going up, or are they just holding their value while the dollar’s value plunges? It reminds me of that one carnival ride where you stand you stand inside a cylindrical chamber that spins around, and then the floor drops out from under you.

    Are you going up, or is the bottom (Dollar) just falling out?
    Same with PM’s.

    -Mammoth

    ReplyDelete
  99. @ Xty
    Well, I'm super conservative with a lousy record for buying/selling stocks. We have about 80% of all our pm investment in physical - currently the physical is about 30% silver + 70% gold and 20% in stocks (100% silver and silver miners). That's why I want to open another account (which I'm going to call our gambling account) for gold miners and startups.

    As for the physical, 70% vaulted and 30% coin sitting at MONEX for the time being until we can figure out something better.

    I know, I know, nothing is leveraged. I don't know how to trade options, make puts or calls or do anything fancy. I'm real old school (when we expanded our family business, it was from cash on hand, no bank loan.) The only thing I will pat myself on the back for is going into pms against everybody's amused skepticism or the outright antagonism of certain siblings when they saw I was dragging my mom along with us. (Not that she objected.) These days, it's kind of like a family joke. One of my sisters now talks about being out on the street when the SHTF while I live in a castle - the joke being that she lives in a gorgeous, gorgeous home while my husband and I live in this itsy bitsy NYC apartment!

    ReplyDelete
  100. Turd, from Dean Wormer and all of us here in Turdville, thanks so much for your spirit and guidance. I am beginning to learn how to trade momentum which isn't easy but which at times can be a big plus. Bravo and kudos all around, R.

    ReplyDelete
  101. @irene:

    good to see another nyc poster. uh with all the survival talk on this page, have u been able to do anything survival preparation-wise? seems tough to do in the city...i live downtown....all i can think of to do now is to procure physical...and mining stocks. not much space in my apt for alot of survival items!

    ReplyDelete
  102. Irene-
    MONEX does not exactly get rave reviews from alot of their customers.

    ReplyDelete
  103. 80 percent silver, 10 percent gold, 10 percent stocks. Started in 2002 at 5 dollar silver. I don't need to take risk. I am very very grateful and glad I did it that way. I may take more risk based upon the awesome information and education Turd and others so kindly provide. Thank all of you so much for the best blog on the net.

    ReplyDelete
  104. Modern pennies are plated in copper with a steel/iron core and are attracted to a magnet.Just scan them in piles with a magnet,anything not attracted is copper (older pennies) with base metal .Soon to be worth more and more than face value.

    ReplyDelete
  105. @pathoekstra
    Now I know, but they were highly recommended to me by an old friend. What's done is done. Live and learn. ;)

    ReplyDelete
  106. De-lurking……
    I’ve been following the Turd for a few weeks now and enjoying the comments as well. I’ve had a 25+ year fascination with govt debt/deficits but only started looking into it seriously in ’06 and I’ve been in PM’s ever since. Chris Martenson’s site was a real eye opener for me in ’06 and I’ve been scouring books and the net since then to educate myself and prepare for the coming austerity.

    Luckily my wife and I live simple lives and far below our means. The bank still has a $59K stake in our home that is currently valued at $125K. No other debt. We are fully and securely employed. We have talked about it and decided to borrow as much as we can against our house and go “stupid in” on PM’s. I’m confident that home prices will likely drop another 30-40% so I may as well put it to good use before it evaporates into fiat heaven. Our philosophy has always been that our home was an investment in our future security not an ATM machine so this decision does not come lightly but every year I keep regretting not having done so sooner. Any comments on this idea would be appreciated.

    It’s too bad I’m such a later comer to the wisdom of the Turd because I find the “intelligence to idiot” ratio here to be much greater than most other sites. I’ll be sticking around for awhile.

    ReplyDelete
  107. Patho,

    Funny that you should mention gov. silos. I bought six of them surplus for $800 a pop in the 90's and moved them to a couple of my rural properties. Now at any given time they are half full of other peoples grain. The annual return on that investment is almost always over %40!

    ReplyDelete
  108. Anyone think the government actually "shuts down"?

    And if so...wouldn't that make crude crash? After all, all those govt workers idled, not driving their/govt cars.

    Hmmm...do we have an ORD beginning? Today's chart is getting a little umbrella like... What say you mighty Turd? Will we be getting a nice dip to BTF out of?

    ReplyDelete
  109. Looks like this /SI sideways zig-zag is tightening for a break. Without serious banker shorting, its going up further today.

    ReplyDelete
  110. Irene,

    Seems to me you have plenty of leverage in your miners... typically 2 to 3 times the metals. Adding a few more Jr's should put you in a balanced position IMHO (may want to add a bit of Ag(riculture) and energy plays for more balance though).

    ReplyDelete
  111. Lots of the miners are sluggish with this price...

    ReplyDelete
  112. Eric #1,
    For a lasting Christmas present, you may consider teaching others how to can bacon.

    During a recent family get-together, I mentioned to my brother-in-law that I had picked up a few rolls of Walking Liberty halves a while back. His eyes lit up – he Gets It.

    So, I already know what to give him for Christmas.

    -Mammoth

    ReplyDelete
  113. Servant: Thank you for joining the party!

    ReplyDelete
  114. Joe: I'm looking for 43 in the next couple of WEEKS, not next month. Maybe even 45.
    Go back and look at the trade from mid to late Feb as your guide.

    ReplyDelete
  115. @ sp

    I hate NYC survivalists in my neighborhood (East Village)! They're so cool, so hip, so arrogant.

    We were in LA for quite some time and learned first hand how important it is to be prepared to live on your own for at least 7 days, preferably 14 days. So, I keep at least that amount of food + water + basics (flashlight, batteries, non-electric phone, etc.) on hand. Food is super basic - tuna, canned soup/stews, dried fruits, seeds & nuts. And chocolate. Can't forget the chocolate. And instant coffee.

    But my real backup is to bug out if possible. Metro North to New Haven where I can be met by family and friends.

    During WWII, my mother was able to escape because she had a pass to get on the trains. In the event of an emergency, the lines to buy train tickets at Grand Central to get out of NYC will be insane. I keep meaning to buy tickets and keep them at home....

    ReplyDelete
  116. It must irk PSLV short sellers.
    All those borrowed shares at a hefty premium too.

    ReplyDelete
  117. Mammoth,
    My older sister once gave me a 1/10 oz proof gold eagle for christmas. She gets it too!

    ReplyDelete
  118. Did you see the Fed official has been trotted out calling for an early end to QE2. See it at

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fed-official-mulls-early-end-apf-3236462557.html?x=0

    Just like clockwork!

    ReplyDelete
  119. Any thoughts on jr gold miner CGR?

    ReplyDelete
  120. Today's Kabuki theatre:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fed-official-mulls-early-end-apf-3236462557.html?x=0

    Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer, On Friday April 8, 2011, 10:20 am

    WASHINGTON (AP) -- A Federal Reserve official indicates he may push to end the central bank's $600 billion Treasury bond-purchase program early, saying it could lead to higher inflation.

    Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, tells a group of business journalists in Dallas: "It may well be that we should consider curtailing what remains" of the program.

    Fisher has been an outspoken critic of the program but has joined the other voting members in supporting it without changes. His recent comments suggest he may vote against maintaining the pace and size of the program at the Fed's next meeting April 26-27.

    Sumo here. The bulldust above is utterly predictable. The more I learn, the more cynical I get. Read Denver Dave's post:

    http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2011/04/gold-and-silver-got-nuts-again.html

    "...I will leave you all with the comment of a close friend and advisor to our fund. This is someone who served as the director of the Denver Branch of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank for six years. In other words, he has valuable insight into the "thinking" of the Fed:

    The Fed will pay lip service to stopping at QE2 but there is no way to unwind at this point given the economy and they will go into QE3 and use Japan and Middle East as cover for it..........there is a huge problem creeping up around forex carry trade that will need to be unwound concerning the Yen

    This is why gold and silver are going higher. "

    ReplyDelete
  121. http://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/Section62_Metals_Futures_Products_2011067.pdf

    Thursday's prelim data...May OI at 70,400 and 1156 PNT's.

    ReplyDelete
  122. About time for another margin hike on Comex, wouldn't you say?

    ReplyDelete
  123. Stephen,

    Morning. I sold my SLW trades yesterday at close for a pittance of a profit. It was bought for a flip. I don't like turning trades into long term holds. I've learned to stay disciplined. Anyways, you win some you lose some. As SLW remains my largest holdling (20% of the portfolio-- stupid I know). If you recall from yesterday, I linked to The Street article which charted SLW. 46.43 was the major resistance. As you can see, we've taken that out (twice) now. I do believe SLW is set to run. Both the chart and the metal behind are look outstanding.

    As I posted earlier, I'm interested in these capped gold stocks like NG, AUY and EGO. I see value in them as opposed to chasing EXK on the run. I will buy more EXK on a dip (but where is the EXK dip?). Even now NG is up just 1%. It will take patience, but these long-suffering gold miners will find their bid. And their shorts will be squeezed.

    SK

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  124. Indentured Servant - I can see how/why you decided to do that. It would be easy to say, from my completely different circumstances, that you should pay down your debt first, blah blah. But as long as you can get out quickly if this turns sour somehow (which I cannot imagine) I would say good luck to you, and read this blog first and foremost!

    Okay Mammoth - an offer of a lesson on home bacon-canning might be an even worse Christmas present than just the dang bacon itself. (Just kidding - it would be a great thing to learn. I was asking for a pressure canner this morning - I am coveting Ginger's Xmas present.)

    ReplyDelete
  125. @ sumo,

    :) the next one might be good for what, 2 hours before the next leg up? :)

    ReplyDelete
  126. This is a little off topic, but I have to share it for any lurkers or regulars who are active duty military and may be stressing due to the lack of a budget being passed and your pay being at stake.

    My friend Lauren is a loan officer for Navy Federal Credit Union and she just brought this to my attention.

    NFCU Contingency Plan

    Looks like if you are military and bank with NFCU, they have your back when the politicians who send you to war don't.

    ReplyDelete
  127. Just saw on ZH that Fisher from the Dallas Fed came out with the obligatory comment about QE, debt monetization etc...how predictable.


    Stephen...I thought about adding to it first thing this a.m. but the gap up was too much for me to buy into. I will add when the time seems right. Probably not today as I don;t see a huge takedown on the horizon.
    The EE may be tired of fighting a uphill battle with buying so strong. At some point they will throw the kitchen sink at it.
    Maybe they are too distracted by oil and gold to worry about silver for the most part?

    You mentioned ABX yesterday. A lot was commented on about it a couple threads ago. Don't know if you caught any of that.

    Hang tough and be patient. Time is on your side regarding entries and exits.


    My word ver was ....unreel....how true it is!

    ReplyDelete
  128. borte,

    Are you serious? Do you think I want to end up at the bottom of the Potomac?

    ReplyDelete
  129. Enough banter - are we off? Arian is doing really well - up %14. And almost everything green - CZN is now down 2 cents. It was down 4 when I complained before, so I would just like to complain again. But it is frustrating to think this might get held up in a bureaucratic handover caused by a completely frivolous election, that nobody seems to know why it was called, or what it is about. Man.

    ReplyDelete
  130. @sumo
    We had the rumor on CNBS recently...

    ReplyDelete
  131. @ SRV

    Yes, the stocks are a bit unbalanced which came about in a curious way. They were originally being (mis)managed by my former brother-in-law who invested them in Goldman Sucks vehicles (along with all sorts of excuses). Ended up just taking control of them myself with a "I'll show you" attitude and decided to go for broke in silver and silver miners. But you're right, I need to balance out the stocks. I'm looking at rare earths, energy and some ag.

    ReplyDelete
  132. Never canned any ducks, but I have bagged quite a few.

    ReplyDelete
  133. Thanks for the CZN info. I sold at profit. To many other movers out there. Put some profits on a JPM short. The rest is waiting for a pull back.

    I was low on trading cash and was looking to sell. Works out for my porfolio.

    Thanks Scott (sold secs after your post)

    ReplyDelete
  134. I'm green on XAG @ 40.255 ! ! !

    ReplyDelete
  135. The election is about blagging and mystery,that and the spokesmen seems to be all they have left along with maybe foreign central bank currency manipulation.Maybe time to shut the exchanges early with computer glitch or fake power cut,etc, nothing is beyond the EE or to low.

    ReplyDelete
  136. The PO$X is hanging there just above $75.
    This seems to be the area where the Fed. steps in to support it.
    Feels a bit different then last weeks attempt at recessitating the $$$ when it was at this point.
    We shall see.

    Can't help but notice the overall equities market has slowly pulled back the further we go into the MSM newscycle about the shutdown.

    I just heard on TV that Boehner and Reid are actually trading barbs on Twitter... how mature and unproductive is that at this point?

    ReplyDelete
  137. NG. In whole hog at 13.51.

    I think a breakout here is imminent.

    SK

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  138. Corn traders not convinced rationing problem solved. Not much of a dip. (USDA wouldn't fudge the numbers now would they?) :)

    ReplyDelete
  139. Anyone have any feelings on Hathaway's Tocqueville Gold fund (TGLDX)? Seems like it just goes no where lately, so why does Morningstar keep throwing stars at it's rating?

    ReplyDelete
  140. SSK - Thankyou. Fellow Turdites - thankyou. Turdman - Thankyou.

    I experienced America for the first time last September, driving from NYC to SF via Newport Rhode Island, Lancaster, Bristol Virginia, Memphis, NO, Dallas, Grants, Flagstaff, Vegas, Santa Barbara, Cayucos and Carmel.

    I experienced a country of incredible diversity, beauty, generosity and what I felt was on the whole, a very friendly spirit . . . which given where I thought things were, made it all the more sad. I would LOVE to get back there and see more before it becomes too scary, but not sure if I can pull it off - there seem to be more important things to take care of.

    Anyway, just want to say to everyone here that has contributed positively, I sincerely thankyou and to those in scary parts of the world - send my best wishes.

    ReplyDelete
  141. ...from ZH...

    http://is.gd/JOzlE5

    ReplyDelete
  142. Cue "crusty hack geezer":

    Fed nears tipping point on rate policy: Fisher

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  143. Well and what a strong statement our friendly wind-up Fed official came up with:

    "It may well be that we should consider curtailing what remains" of the program. Or it should not be that we might think about ..... It is gobbledeegook. May well be should consider curtail what remains

    If you are still awake, and try to actually parse their words, it is ludicrous. Have they not yet then even considered curtailing the program or its remains? Well then, once they actually start thinking about maybe doing the undoable, they could let us know with another strong statement? "We are beginning to consider curtailing ...."

    ReplyDelete
  144. Tom

    I own CGR. I like it a lot, lots of growth in the pipeline, but they just spanked me yesterday with a financing dilution so I'm a little grumpy about it. But I keep saying, buying right AFTER a financing is way better than buying right BEFORE.

    ReplyDelete
  145. Turd

    oh ... now I really see ... sorry

    ReplyDelete
  146. I think that Fed statement backfired, we just saw a nice spike and now Boehner is on TV and just said the Dems can eat it on the budget deal.

    CNBS won't shut up about commodities being on a rip today, especially gold and silver. I'm seriously considering booking some profits before closing today and see how things look on Monday. This rise in silver this week just seems too good to be true. I know I'm an optimistic pessimist who errs on the side of caution, but does anyone else feel this way or is it just me?

    ReplyDelete
  147. We have had seven consecutive days of positive closings for silver. This in it self is a rare event. If we close higher today, and it appears that we will, it will make eight consecutive days that silver closed up each day. The last time we had that many consecutive up days was in September of last year when we had seven up days in a row. If we also get an up day on Monday this will be clear evidence that something big has occurred and the change is profound. We will probably be tested just before Equity Options Expiration later next week for sure. This sure is getting extremely interesting.

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  148. xty/mammoth

    This was not home-canned bacon. We'll need to check with pathoekstra if that is even possible. It is a commercial product.

    I'm at work right now, so capabilities are limited. I'll get you a link tonight.

    ReplyDelete
  149. @ irene:

    thx for the tips, i am in the west village. i don't usually even mention anything about pms to anyone. only one who i ever discuss this with is my cousin who is a manager of a hedge fund (he obviously understands and has been in pm for about a decade).

    my gf and i only have cell phones, maybe i should look into at least solar power charger...not sure a landline would help me. anyways i try not to go nuts with the survival thing, main goal for me is to protect my wealth.

    figuring out how much to allocate is very tough. outside of my emergency 3 month fund, i have the following allocation:

    10% miners (slw, swc, sndxf, pal, jag, gdx, auy, avgcf, fvitf)
    5% agriculture/misc commodities (rja, dba, dnn-uranium miner)
    10% physical about 70% gold 30% silver
    10% stock (mainly spy and rig)
    15% short-intermediate bond fund (vbisx)
    ~3% of combination faz hedges and speculative options
    rest cash (~50%)

    i am planning to rotate some of the miners but i have noticed the more things i change usually the more i lose)

    my next step is evaluating:

    brd
    cde
    ssri
    axu
    mfn

    if anyone has any tip or advice i would greatly appreciate it. i don't see myself ever going over 35% in miners and pm combined...i think that is a recipe for disaster in my case.

    ReplyDelete
  150. Jeez, I wasn't gonna buy here but, TF, if you think we're headed for $43 in a few weeks ...

    ReplyDelete
  151. Sold GS short, bot SLW
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLW:GS&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p62981727178

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  152. Turd

    Lol, right on time again!!! are you sure that you are not one of the FED hacks yourself, I mean SERIOUSLY, you say it, and 15 minutes later, there is the hack, spouting off garbage about QE2,,

    Great commentary TURD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    thank you

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  153. People, this isn't at all about trading anymore. We are witnessing the complete destrcution of the dollar, and other fiats as well. This is a watershed moment.
    Think gold and silver are ripping now? Wait until:
    - pension plans start adding
    - funds start adding
    - Joe SixPack gets clue #1

    This is only the second inning.

    ReplyDelete
  154. Wow, looks like Ben was thinking the same thing I was while typing ha ha, guess it's not just me. :)

    PS-my word verification on the last one was "exitilia". Exit tilia feel better about silver? These word ver's have been good prophets lately, Skynet is watching us.

    ReplyDelete
  155. So, what happens if the bozos do pass a budget?

    Does Blythe pounce on then new with a FUTD?

    Just throwing that out there.


    SK

    ReplyDelete
  156. Wait, I was wrong on one point, it is about trading. Trading worthless fiat as soon as you get it for physical.

    ReplyDelete
  157. At some point soon A LOT of hedge fund and money manager $$$ are going to come pouring into the PM's and then who knows how big of a spike will occur at that point.
    The "shorts " will be off the miners real quick at that point.

    They will feel like they are missing the boat when the broad market starts to tank and they are looking for a place to park their cash.
    Can't wait for that day.
    I thinks it going to happen this month.

    Harry Reid is on Tv saying the Repubs want to shut down the Govt. because they want to put women in danger by denying them health services etc. and they don't want scientists to look for a cyre for cancer anymore...OMG!
    Now he's mocking the Tea Party etc....What a friggn' joke this has become.
    This is like high school stuff.

    ReplyDelete
  158. @ Ben Roberts

    Your words are too kind. And, I would rather work behind the scenes than in the spotlight for future reference. I will be involved.. that is all I know.

    Not that I know what my job is :)

    ReplyDelete
  159. By my reckoning we could be seeing a CSF any day now.

    What do you guys think?

    ReplyDelete
  160. Johnboatcat-
    I follow TGLDX because it's one of three similar mutual funds I own. Done very well for me. Over the last year, six months, three months, and YTD it has comfortably outperformed USAGX and GOLDX. Only in the most recent time frame has it lagged a little.

    TGLDX is a long term hold for me, in a retirement portfolio, and I remain happy. Just wish I'd allocated more to that fund than the others.

    ReplyDelete
  161. Does anybody get the impression JPM has other pressing concerns right now?
    Must really suck having to fight so many fires.

    Any guesses as to how long the big boys could be at this point?
    JPM trading at $47.17. Anyone else watching their stock price?
    FED stays open during Gov't shutdown.??
    The real fireworks could happen then.
    "Look over here!!! Look over here!!!

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  162. SSK - yes the rampant undiscplined actions of the money printers is making a mess of using discipline in trading. I mean what the heck, how bloody high is UP in a month, week, or lately even a DAY????

    Good problem to have, as problems go

    word ver: ablecul I should be able to cull some profit but I really don't want to take it yet!

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  163. Irene

    You are smart to watch P/E ratios. Of course sometimes a high one means it's overpriced, but sometimes it means that the growth prospects are so spectacular that it is totally justified. Keep up with your DD and when you decide which bucket that stock falls into, then either buy it, or don't! Good Luck.

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  164. Here is a long term chart of the dollar.

    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2DePAZe2gA/SrB3estZ7SI/AAAAAAAAJyQ/vE75I-WFdyo/s1600-h/USdollar.PNG

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  165. I think you should be no less than 50 percent in physical silver held in your hands, well hidden where you and only one other person know that you have it and where it is located.

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  166. Sp - thanks for the list. I need to redo ours. I got jumped on earlier for thinking out loud about timing selling equities (all Canadian companies owned on the TSX) and asked if I was the only person on this blog who owned any. I find learning the balance other people have really interesting - and it is a good way to share strategy without using numbers much, so it isn't too revealing.

    Justin - re the rapid rise in silver price. Remember that this was predicted by Turd and others (not trying to brag, mine was a guess, but the general price direction was not) and it is just awesome to see it happen. But the miners are just starting to move. I would urge caution in getting all out just when it gets going. The fundamentals have not changed and this is what they suggested.

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  167. So I'm sitting here wondering if I should buy more AGQ at $255.xx and then I get a phone call. Come back and it's near $258.00.... What to do?

    Ugh!

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  168. Just looked at the dollar chart again. Skynet can eat it, I'm not selling a damned thing linked to silver, metals or REE's.

    USD -.700%

    It was down .450% just an hour ago when I last checked it. $41 silver today? It's looking that way...

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  169. word verification: MANDUCKE what can you say.

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  170. Are we going to touch $41.00 today?

    This is nuts.

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  171. TYF- Thanks! Any idea why the short term lag? I mean not even a lag. More like a drag.

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  172. What a very good time to be alive...Cheers to all of you. ( Raises glass )

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  173. Conservative "Tea Party" members and folks like Ron Paul who have common sense, are the last breath of this country and the last chance to avert total meltdown.

    I can't believe nobody has noticed this yet. And I think I know exactly what "Evil" was insinuating this weekend.

    It's obvious TPTB want the government to shut down. Hell, they didn't pass a budget last all last year before the "Tea Party" even got there! So, the government shuts down this weekend. The FED keeps running, with no oversight. They crash the system. Guess who gets the blame? The "Tea Party" and by extension Ron Paul - the exact people they need to get out of their way in order to have complete dominion over the philosophical argument of austerity vs liquidity.

    I can see the news quote now from Obama - "See what happens when you let those evil rich republicans shut down the goverment?"

    Who will listen to Ron Paul anymore after he and his party are "responsible" for crashing the system in one weekend?

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  174. After all my gnashing of teeth last night, I was able to establish two new options positions at this morning's open for only about .17 per contract more than I would have paid yesterday. I'm much relieved!

    I think we all need to start thinking in terms of percentage changes in price, not only dollar amounts. Last fall silver was going up at about 10% each month. The fundamentals are the same now and the ability of the EE to restrain the price seems to be weakened. Not only that, but now it's getting a lot more media attention.

    BTW - Is CNBC MSM, or do only financial wonks watch it? Does the average American know what stories are on CNBC?

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  175. @sp

    I envy your investments! But invest in a bit of food + water at home - even 3/4 days worth. Just store it in some out of the way place (I know, who's got that in NYC?).

    You record with trading sounds like mine. I do the best DD that I can and I should just stick to my guns. No more trading of core holdings.

    CASH AT HOME! How could I forget. Absolutely must have cash at home. And a meetup plan with friends and family. Along with a backup meetup plan. Do not count on cell phones working if there's a major emergency. We had problems with ours in LA. The non-electric phones worked though. I always keep a princess phone handy and keep paying for friggin' verizon just because of that experience. I have read that when cell phones go out that people have been able to continue calling on their cells via their phone's internet - so I suppose that's a good thing to know too.

    A few summers back, we went through a spell of brown tap water which supposedly wasn't dangerous, just ugly. Now, I like an iced tea as much as the next person, but I don't expect my water to look like it so I keep lots of water filters at home too.

    Any suggestions from other urban dwellers?

    P.S. Have you noticed anybody else here from NYC?

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  176. Some of us have waited a very very long time for a week like this. This is truly amazing. But it appears that the fireworks have only just begun.

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  177. Servant,

    I’m with you on trading home equity for PM. I owe 60k on my house that’s valued at 200k…or valued at 200k for now anyways.

    My only suggestion is, don’t get any big bright ideas like I did and veer off course. STTP (stick to the plan) whatever your plan may be.

    I temporarily got off course and gave back about 15k, at that point I found myself getting caught up in the mental games and doing stupid things.

    Now that I’m back on the road and out of the ditch, I’ve almost gotten back the 15k and it only took a couple of weeks.

    GL

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  178. Gold AND silver are almost vertical at the same time. Cool.

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  179. My "Riverstone" (RVS) is up 23% today! Anyone know what happened?! Holy smokes!

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  180. Remember, they don't have to DO anything to crash the system. They just have to stop pumping helium into the balloon.

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  181. Finally, USSIF (USA Silver) get's some wind in the sales; up 11% currently. Wish they didn't have a 20% hedge on their silver production, but once that's done for 2011, no more hedges! Hopefully they will be reporting Q results soon.

    Aurcana (AUNFF) just can't seem to cut a break. Guess I should just keep loading up.

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  182. For your eating pleasure while hunkered down, I bring you canned Bacon, the last picture in the link. They also offer canned butter and cheese on the same site, go figure:

    http://www.pleasanthillgrain.com/canned_meat_canned_chicken_canned_turkey_canned_beef.aspx

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  183. Johnboatcat-
    I'm guessing the lag/drag is due to a slightly different mix or weighting of various stocks. TGLDX is probably a little heavier on something that's been a laggard over the last weeks. Or the other funds have gotten lucky with a breakout on a stock they were more heavily weighted on. Not a big enough or long enough difference for me to dig into yet, though.

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  184. OldNavy - you are very right about thinking in percentage terms. The rising price is sort of intoxicating, and my hubby was reminding me of that very thing this morning.

    ben - amazing. And it is just getting people's attention. But silver won't be a bubble - it is a tiny percentage of the investment world and primarily in industrial metal. And it is in very short supply and I cannot believe how insane and greedy the banksters were to get into such a short position. If it is really true that the silver and gold funds and mining stocks are also getting held back by shorts that are about to get squeezed - too good to be true.

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  185. The minute they announce the deal watchout for the attack, would not be surprise if it happens just before the metals close.

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  186. Damn! Every time I see this I wonder if this is "it".

    I've noticed that the FUBM trade is getting so crowded now that it's gone from BM whacking silver down for months to weeks to days to hours and now it's having the opposite affect! Her takedown is a having a Pavlovian trading response now. "Time to buy!" It's now the TYBM formation! Thank you for the rallying call!

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  187. sp, Irene -
    I live in Soho. Not into the whole survivalist thing though. I'm happy going down in flames with the rest of NYC if the fabric of society unravels.

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  188. PPT has to be planning something.

    Surely they won't let silver and gold run away like this without a fight.

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  189. Justin...I'm hanging back a bit, but more for logisitcal reasons.
    Am going to cash in an EE bond today...
    Waiting a call from my regular dealer....they're doing a "courtesy" drop in minimum silver oz. orders, but I'm the poor one here and need a little more help on that.
    Considered GoldSilver.com. Went as far as opening an account. But, hard to figure premium (for me at least), and the extra shipping is crazy. The promise of advice on when to exit seems iffy...Maloney already talked about 20% increments, and his indicators but there are so many other factors involved (he even said that) and admits that nobody really knows.

    On that site, I would be forced to buy silver eagles at a very stiff price, because their minimums are pretty high on everything else, the cheaper forms.

    So, I'm sitting here in limbo.

    We do have a nice chunk of metals already in the safe, so I'm going to try to stay calm and patient here. Not expecting miracles, but just need to clear the road with my regular dealer (CMI).

    Pondering GG now, which is very extended. I'm in at around the 44 level, might sell half pretty soon.

    I'm just wondering about the effect of any triumphant budget deal, which will probably be made on the backs of women, yet again!

    1/10 of a percent on the things like health insurance for kids, women, and befouling the air ....SCREW THEM!

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  190. Are all of us just totally loving this moment???

    This awesome!

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  191. They will try to wait to shut the government down until Easter so that shutting the National Parks will ruin holidays for cute children so NPR can play news stories with background sounds of water lapping on shores while children cry and parents bemoan the cruel, heartless people who put money before children.

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