Sunday, April 3, 2011

Sunday Fun

Some stuff to ponder while you try to whittle away the remaining time before the Globex opens...

Let's start with some "softs". Take a look at cocoa. About 50% of the world's cocoa production comes from Ivory Coast. IC is definitely not a place I would want to spend a lot of time these days:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/03/ivory-coast-un-evacuates-staff
couple that with this:
http://af.reuters.com/article/ivoryCoastNews/idAFN0212781620110402
And now look at the chart. After a steep selloff, it looks to be headed much higher. This does not please The Turd. Mrs. Ferguson and I own a couple of self-serve, frozen yogurt stores and a rising cocoa price definitely impacts our bottom line. We will be forced to raise prices (again). As you can see, events in faraway places do, in fact, affect your pocketbook.
How about coffee. Its been a strong UPtrend for while now. It got ahead of itself, as you can see on this chart, and has since corrected 10%. The chart tells you it will now reverse and begin heading higher again.
Next, here's an update of the "live cattle" chart. I spent a lot of time last week analyzing why this chart is heading higher. For a refresher or if you missed it, click here: http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/03/ag-commodities-and-coming-inflation.html
At any rate, an important fundamental that I haven't mentioned yet is the potential new, significant demand from Japan. Not a lot of interest in glow-in-the-dark steaks these days. It might simplify the task of grilling at night but eating one will make cholesterol the least of your worries.
Onto the PMs. First, here's silver. No commentary needed other than the rather obvious conclusion that there will be a significant amount of support should The Cartel succeed in pressing price down toward 36.50.
Lastly, before I get to the gold chart and I want you to consider again how important controlling the price of gold is to the maintenance of the Fed/TBTF/Govt ponzi.
 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FGVtJRWP6k
Gold is the barometer. Everything else mainly flies "under the radar". As you know from discussing current events with friends and family, very few folks have any idea of just how drastically dollar-denominated commodities have been rising in price since the advent of QE back in 2009. The price of gold is about the only item that most folks ever hear about on the nightly news or CNBS. So, to support the illusion of "under control inflation", the gold price must be suppressed.
Look at the action in gold since the announcement of QE2 back in November. The CRB is up about 20% but gold is flat. Not that is hasn't tried to moved up, it just hasn't been allowed to. Note the severity and speed of the hammerdown each time gold taps the 1440 area. Soon, there will only be two scenarios that can play out:
1) all commodities correct and collapse, thereby easing the UPward pressure on gold and it rolls over, too. (unlikely)
2) The buying pressure becomes too great for even The Cartel to contain and gold finally forces its way through 1440. The Forces of Evil will be forced to retreat about 10% higher, near 1600. Sound familiar?
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/1600-gold-by-june-10-2011.html
OK, that's it. I'll have more for you this evening. Have a great day! TF


9:15pm EDT UPDATE:
A strong opening across the board this evening.
Gold is 1432 and silver is 38.09. WOW!
Most significantly, May crude is at 108.65, well clear of the intraday highs of 3/7 at 108.20. Its hard to tell,  at this point, where crude may run into technical resistance. It looks to me like it has room to run all the way through 110 toward 110.25 but who can say for sure? When the crude is market is being driven by geo-political factors, the charts and the fundos take a back seat.
As long as crude stays UP overnight, you can be confident that the PMs will catch a consistent bid. Silver is rapidly closing in on the intraday, pre-margin hike highs set on 3/24 at 38.18. Remember what The Wicked Witch said last week...The Cartel may surprise us, dispense with the double-top painting and allow silver to run up through 39 and approach 40 this week. Let's watch for that and stay nimble if it happens. I now have a last of 38.13 so we may know by tomorrow morning (U.S.) if Blythe and Ruprecht have decided to stand down for the time being.
Have a great evening! TF

249 comments:

  1. From end of last thread.

    Relating to silver doctors post on industrials demand. Here is a comprehensive 34 page report from the silver institute. link

    And here is an older comprehensive report on the entire silver investment market from the silver institute that northeast bullion linked me to. link

    Here is a list of free publications put out by www.silverinstitute.org that delve deep into the world of silver. link

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  2. Great post Turd.

    Keep up the good work and I, as many others on your blog will continue to do our part and educate as many people that we can.

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  3. Gold was similarly locked under $1220 for quite some time during jesse's cup and handle pattern. I hope we see a similar explosion through his current inverse head and shoulders that meets or exceeds turd's $1600 target.

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  4. Hello Turdites.

    This is the most intelligent group of PM traders on the web so I have a couple of
    of scenarios I have been thinking about. The "What Ifs" as I call them.

    1. What if there is real trouble at the Crimex and the banksters go to a 100% margin or cash market to drive down PM prices and force most small speculators to leave. It seems that even a small increase in margin tanks the price for a bit.

    2. We agree that the FED must do QE to infinity however what if the FED announces the end of QE2 as a head fake to again drive down the price of commodities only to resume QE again.

    We experienced the sell of at the end of the 1st quarter coupled a margin increase. This could be an efficient means to drive down the PM price as funds roll over to the next period as the FED makes this announcement with the seasonality play of sell in May and go away.

    Your input one and all is greatly anticipated and appreciated.

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  5. @silver cell

    1. 100% margin equates to unencumbered gold and silver imo, with no more fractional reserve bullion lending. Paper price could tank and we may end up with freegold.

    2. It might happen. Respond to price.

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  6. Turd,

    What about agriculture? Corn jumped through the roof already (as you anticipated, but even more abruptly), but the rest are lagging, especially rice.

    Also, do you expect the deflationary scenario that many people are talking about to come from end-of-May/June on once gold touches $1600 or could there be an brief sell-off that provides a nice buying opportunity?

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  7. I think China would do anything including start a major war to keep the price of rice down. They have unlimited resources to do whatever they have to.... so....
    Rice is in my will not consider to trade because I see things beyond my ability to forecast forces at work.

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  8. Mister

    Awesome pick on that sovereign!!!! I feel your joy. 1880? That must be a young Victoria I think. THose are my favorites! You got a nice price on it too. I know how it feels about the price thing though. The very first ones I ever bought years ago were around $100.

    Just last night I took out those Sov's I just got and was showing them to Mrs ERic. I feel like a kid on Christmas morning when I've got one of those in my hands. There's so much history there. It's a sickness, really. But a good one!

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  9. Ginger re math and options prices....

    The Black Scholes model in its basic concept is simple.

    It assumes that prices move randomly.

    So given the price today, and how much the price has been moving around (volatility) We can assign a probability of it being at some price in the future.

    If we know how likely it is to happen we can assign a price to that risk.

    Black Scholes knows nothing fundamentals, of trends, of market forces or any other real thing. It just thinks everything is a random walk in the casino.

    When I lived in NH the local town had a fund raising event where a cow was placed in a large fenced area
    and the area was divided up in a grid... you could buy grid squares for $5.00 if on July forth the cow dropped its patty in your square you won the jackpot.

    Clearly if the cow always goes in the same corner those squares are more valuable than those at the opposite corner. The Game was not an efficient market
    as all squares were priced the same.

    The options market tries to be an efficient market, options close to the "cow" cost more than options for the far corner miles away from the "cow"
    (When I say cost, I referring to premium, the cost part of an option, an in the money option has both real value, and premium and its price is a combination of those)

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  10. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  11. @ Paul

    Does this not depend on where China's rice is grown? If a lot of it is grown domestically then can they not put price controls on rice to keep prices held down?

    @ Silver Cell

    Just my $0.02 but..

    1) Changing margins or going to an all cash market might drive down prices but it would only be temporary (look at what happened after the last margin increase- prices recovered before the end of the day). It doesn't have much of an impact on the real forces that are driving prices higher. Hell, lets hope this happens so that we can buy with both hands haha!


    2) Might happen but it shouldn't hurt too much. Silver and gold are likely to be the least affected, if not, prices will probably recover quickly. We can also see this coming so it shouldn't hurt us from an expectation standpoint, I don't expect many turdites to sell their gold at the bottom of the correction. This is why it's nice to keep a little cash in your account to BTFD should something like this happen.

    We also have the guidance of Turd and a plethora of other great posters to guide us through such an event. I'd be more worried about a "real" black swan hitting us.


    Rick

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  12. I can't wait for $5 gasoline, then everyone will be driving scooters and Volts and converting their gas guzzling autos to natural gas... high prices are the only way that's ever going to happen.

    Other than oil it seems a lot of other 'sin' commodities are going up the most...

    Sugar? bad for people who like pastries maybe

    Coffee? bad if you can't stay away from starbucks.

    Cocoa? maybe hitting the pocket book of people who can still afford to pay for such nicities

    Beef? seems 2 thirds of the world gets along without it just fine

    just my 2c

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  13. If you study this chart (credit Trader Dan) you can see how the breakout-lul pattern is set around these 6 month intervals. If history is to repeat itself, then the rocket ship, filled with a lot of fuel, is ready to take off.

    https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-xA2s0T0X-WA/TY0hEE_FkKI/AAAAAAAAAQc/ZaeR534dWO4/s1600/Gold+weekly.PNG

    For the ship to roll over and take one water at this point doesn't make sense to me, but I think we need to be prepared to act either way.

    Just read the guest post on ZH about the over-valuation of the market historically and if that doesn't support the gold movement, I don't know what does. The big question is how far and how long to ride the insanity?

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-chart-week-stocks-are-overvalued

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  14. great insight, it seems that golds been held back for sure in the face of all the other commodity price increases. It makes total sense that any central banking authority would NOT want to see it increase as that is the one thing that the news actually talks about (golds at new all-time highs today). I think we've all been expecting gold to break out. If it finally does, it should be logical that silver should follow it up as well. My question is to the fine folks here, in that scenario, would we see silvers parabolic march continue, or at that point would we see the GSR start to edge back upwards?

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  15. The suppression on silver was easier due to the lower value; and normally, if silver dropped, so would gold. The problem that Blythe supercunt has these days is that silver, due to the increase in its industrial usage, has now decoupled from gold. By the end of the year I expect the GSR to be less than 30.

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  16. Option pricing models are all well and good, but at the end of the day, you as a trader are a price taker not a price maker. And Fear and Greed (if you are not careful!!) will be telling you when to buy and sell.

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  17. Im thinking that if Trichet at the ECB doesnt raise Euro rates this Friday that could be the catalyst that the managed money could be waiting for to come into the PM in size. In that event prices are sure to break higher, on the other hand if he does raise rates bond prices will fall and you could see money come out into PM anyway, clearly there will be a short term drop in PMs but this should be short lived while the money looks for haven.

    I for one as a buyer of covered warrants am betting on the next price breakout to 1650/50 by mid may,and based on chart timings and current events I am optimistic (if not sleeping very well) that this will occur.

    As many aritcles have said previously the central banks are in a no win situation, raise rates and the bond market goes down, hold steady and risk a currency crisis.... I guess thats why we have some Hawkish and some Doveish jawboning from the same institutions. Divide and conquer so to speak.

    Ultimatly it doesnt matter as the numbers cannot be repaid and its simply a case of which scenario comes first, Bond rout or currency failure - either way i think it will result in the same end game of a new global currency and sovereign default/reset - physical ownership of allocated metal in a safe juristiction is the best way to mitigate the risks of the upcoming events - however if war is part of the plan then land and a gun is probably better than a shiny gold brick.

    Told the wife that i needed some "hand holding" from the turdites and hence the spouting of opinion.

    Looking forward to a breakout week then..... ;-)

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  18. @Dave416: Lol, come in Europe, look at our $9 gas... Don't worry, you will handle $5.

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  19. Black-Scholes may work in theory/academia, but falls short in reality. Just try to trade an "efficient" modeling program and see how well you do. Simple proof is the failure of LTCM and the evidence of Black Swans (which is in itself a misused term. How many people even understand wat Taleb was writing about??? )
    FM

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  20. @jake. "This place is like herding cats" I'm still laughing.

    @Robert Leroy Parker. The 'annual' report you've linked to was part of my DD coming into silver. Says the fundamentals of supply/demand are hugely on our side. Looking for the next update which should be out sometime this month. If you see it before me please post here and I'll do the same for you.

    Related to that, silver mining output was expected to increase last year by 3% which would not have kept up with forecast demand.

    The San Cristobal mine in Bolivia that is currently on strike accounts for about 2.5% of reported global production (if my back of envelope math is working). That's significant squeeze.

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  21. Paul - ah - so if you think of the price of an option as being like an electron, you are closer to the truth. Now that I understand.

    Fast MoverL

    "Black-Scholes may work in theory/academia, but falls short in reality."

    That, in a nut shell, is what I was trying to tell Scott on the last thread.

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  22. Dave416 You are callous to the hardship these higher prices will bring. Easy to be facetious, but it is not just Starbucks customers who will suffer from higher coffee prices, and if you read the post, higher cocoa prices will hurt the bottom line of a business that Turd owns.

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  23. DPH, further to the comments on Friday regarding the fed, here's a question from harvey and a nicely summed up response from one of his readers that I unfortunately would agree with:

    Harvey's Question:

    "Two of the firms are JPMorgan and Goldman. Setting aside massive dollars going to foreign banks,JPM and Goldman went to the discount window in 2008 and received massive funds to bail themselves out of a pickle.

    So these guys continue to short the dickens out of silver and gold and then they almost go bust with their recklessness as they proceed to the discount window so they can continue to fleece ordinary investors?

    Central bankers should go to jail for theft of investors hard earned dollars.

    And if the USA gold, at Fort Knox, is leaving our shores for Iran, Russia and China. I can only say that this act is nothing but treason.

    Thoughts on this anyone?"

    Poster's Reply:

    "Hervey, this is all a plan to destroy the West and to strenghten China. The plan is supposedly to bleed the West white, and crash the dollar. Out of the chaos the elites will establish a new order. No more pesky Constituion, just a bunch of serfs. They are stealing everything: our dollars by outright fraud, our stock profits by shorting smaller promising companies and destroying their stock value, our ability to make money in the markets by manipulating the markets, our jobs by promoting "free trade" while actually exporting our manufacturing to elitist core countries (China, Russia and Iran), our companies by printing money and buying their stock with counterfeit money, our land by the Fed taking all the "worthless" mortgages, and our gold by stealing from Ft Knox, keeping the price artificially low, and buying the PMs with counterfeit money while they dilute what we worked for to nothing. This is all a plan to take us down, Harvey, and it is working. My hope is that at the critical juncture that patriots will be there to thwart their takeover in America. Don't have much hope for the rest of the world. Look what they did to the Polish leaders that were trying to help their people and provide good government."


    cont'd...

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  24. @ Xty + Ginger

    All of what I said last night was just an informal proof about why the value of a call option decreases in value with respect to time (leave all other variables constant for now).

    As for my Lim t->T, this examines the value of the call option as time approaches maturity. It would make sense that as time until maturity decreases, there is less chance for the call option to observe variance, thus a lower value.

    An easy way to see this... which would you rather have?

    An SLV call option expiring at midnight tonight, or Friday at close. This should be obvious (especially for this week!). The premium on the call option is increased for the Friday vs the tonight option... I am pretty sure you are already aware of this... but that is all I was saying...

    As for this comment:

    "Black-Scholes may work in theory/academia, but falls short in reality."

    I am well aware, I have even made a comment about this in the past. Black-Scholes assumes a lot of conditions that make it unrealistic. All models are unrealistic to a certain degree... that is why its best to understand the fundamentals of what drives them to understand what to look for...

    I have serious issues with the term "risk free rate," as usually this corresponds to various US T-Bond rates... which is far from risk free...

    I appreciate your/others analysis of my youthful exuberance that I expect everyone to be on board with what logic says.... but I think this is one area where the internet fails to communicate effectively, as you have a channeled viewpoint of my perspective, from comments I have made and a little bit of self-reason. Unfortunately, I can guarantee you that I am not blissfully ignorant as you may hint at... but even if I was, I don't think it would be a negative.

    As for your comments about humanity/math/science... I will get back to you later... that is a question I will have to get back to you about...

    Remember... you are just reading my comments... and my vernacular has been acquired through online communities and living with frat brothers for 4 years...

    I think I sound young b/c I have very few responsibilities that I have to fulfill in my daily life (for now at least), so I am lucky enough to live in a world where I can just think about things and use my knowledge for other things...

    Anyways,

    Thanks mom.. I mean xty + ginger,

    -
    Scott

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  25. @Dave416

    I hope that your post was in jest.

    There is practically NO infrastructure for natural gas fueled vehicles in the USA. How many billions (trillions?) will that cost? How long will it take to implement?

    Natural gas is UNAVAILABLE where I live. The closest location is 6 miles away.

    Chevy Volts STILL rely on and internal combustion engines that uses gasoline. And $40,000, or whatever insane price they charge, will by A LOT of $5 a gallon gasoline.

    Peak CHEAP oil is HERE. Prepare accordingly.

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  26. I'm so annoyed right now. been trying to post since yesterday but keep losing my post! computer turned off twice, post button failed once (and I was so happy I had got to the end that I forgot to copy my response in cse it didn't work!)

    Ginger, I think others have given you a decent technical understanding. From a common sense perspective, your May 37 calls went down in price because although the price of silver increased, it has been rangebound and only increased to the top of that range without breaking out. Since this is an out-of the money option, you need a AG price of $38 just to be in the money. As such, the market is waiting for signs of which way the price will go (down the range or break out upwards). The options price decreased because there is now less time left for the price to surpass $38 and that decrease outweighed the increase in AG price in the minds of traders. The day we break $38 you will likely see a nice pop in the price of that option. The longer it takes to pop, the more chance that option will expire worthless.

    I have April and July SLV 35's and some $38's in my portfolio. $38's are more of a gamble and are a smaller portion of my position but have great volatility which makes them great to buy on a dip and sell on a strong move upwards. I've learned in the past to be somewhat cautious on options trading. Options will only rise when the underlying stock raises. Once the stock becomes rangebound or decreases, out of the money options can become worthless quicker than you can imagine.

    @Curtains - I'm not so sure about December options. It's along time from now and many things can happen between.

    I have to do something in the next few weeks wrt my april calls and I'm thinking of rolling into July. With all the uncertainty and talk about the market perhaps being in for a correction/dip before June I'd like to get as much of the short term trend benefit before then, get out and be in a position to buy December if that dip materializes. I'm thinking if I roll I may go deeper in the money options to reduce my risk somewhat yet still benefit from a bull trend.

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  27. I think I was pretty clear:
    Black Scholes knows nothing of fundamentals, of trends, of market forces or any other real thing. It just thinks everything is a random walk in the casino.

    So since black Scholes sucks What is it good for?

    Say I think that Silver will be at 48 the end of July.
    Am I better off buying Dec 48 calls, or Sep 44 calls?
    What are each likely to be worth in late July?
    (July futures options expire in June so July aren't on the list)

    Today they are very close in price.

    With some simple work I can figure out that one has a lower break even price in July and one has a higher profit if we actually hit 48 in late July.

    If you actually consider buying and selling options
    at some future date, a date that is not their expiration date, then you must use some kind of model to see what your risk/reward looks like.

    Black Scholes is not perfect, but for doing what if's on a extended into the future they are a good tool.

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  28. paulindoon!!

    I haven't even read this thread yet.. just came back to catch up on the end of the last thread and caught your post. Oh my. The video you posted is priceless. You need to repost it here on the current thread (if you haven't already..I haven't read this thread yet) ...It made me lol.. ..not in a LOL way.. but in a I Smiled Out Loud Way ...then I sat here with tears in my eyes. I now realize I need to go long waterproof mascara. lol.

    sigh.

    If only. If only we as human beings could live that way all the time. If only we could understand the power of the human touch... both physically through just the act of a simple hug.. and figuritively through reaching out and touching someone with an act of kindness.

    This is one of my all time favorite videos now.

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  29. Alex: if I may ask you a question re SLV options.

    I have a bunch of Apr24 which are hugely ITM. So I will cash these out prior to expiration on 15Apr.

    But you mentioned rolling yr Apr SLVs into July. Just how does one do that? Is it just simply selling Aprs then rebuying July? Or is there another mechanism one can use?

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  30. paulindoon's video link from the last thread:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=hN8CKwdosjE

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  31. Ginger: How NICE of you to post that. For anyone else that has not seen the earlier one I will copy/paste the earlier post - is that OK?
    -----
    Yesterday, my wife Susan sent me a link to a vid that brought smiles & then (believe it or not) some joyous tears to me. The song played in background is Hallelujah by Leonard Cohen, a most notable Cdn poet/singer.
    This time around is sung by Alexandra Burke, a finalist (I believe) from British talent contests. At the end of the "Hugs" vid a link to Ms Burke's vid shows up where she sings Hallelujah once again.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=hN8CKwdosjE

    This is a WOW WOW in my book & hope all Turdites enjoy this. What a voice!!
    http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=hN8CKwdosjE

    Powerful! This starts out slowly but builds to a beautiful, touching ending.
    Makes you wonder if something this simple could remove barriers,

    Turd: my most sincere thanks for this site and all the worthwhile info/data you present.

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  32. @xty: not sure what hardship you're referring to, and i was being serious. if the price of a frozen yogurt bowl needs to increase 50cents then (hopefully) the frozen yogurt vendor has done some advance calculations of how many people would still be willing to pay for it v.s. how it hits the bottom line - heck, more profit might even be made from those customers who must have frozen yogurt at any cost. If not, well then sure call me callous for not being as sensitive to those who are unable to plan at such a basic level.

    And don't even get me started on the evils of frozen yogurt! :)

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  33. @ Dave

    Have you ever run a small business? What kind of society do you want to live in? Sounds like you're okay with an economic system where the way to maximize profits is to price everybody but the desperate out - in which case you have to posit that competition can't enter. Lo! And here you go! In case you missed it, a British businessman bought up almost the entire cocoa crop this year (see, "Mystery trader buys all Europe's cocoa," link below).

    Happy with that? One person corners the market and millions (billions?) have to pay the price of monopoly-owned chocolate.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/7895242/Mystery-trader-buys-all-Europes-cocoa.html

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  34. @Torx1953 regarding natural gas as a vehicle fuel.

    The cure for high prices is high prices.

    I have had 3 vehicles fueled by natural gas. I don't have one today because it didn't take off enough to increase the number of filling stations to the point of convenience and when I moved the nearest one was just too far away. Home compressors are not perfected and I believe that's just a matter of investment in engineering.

    Investment in pipelines, filling stations, and home compressors will happen when it becomes investment worthy and it wouldn't take long if oil hits $200 or becomes scarce. I can say without a doubt that the filling and driving experience was flawless. Emissions lessened and an unexpected surprise the oil in the crankcase was still clean at the next oil change!

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  35. Thank you for that explanation, Paul Breed. ..So.. the way I understand it.. the Black Scholes theory is like the Big Bang theory of math and probabilities. lol. I loved the cow contest analogy. That makes sense! What I'm not good at yet is deciding which makes more sense for me. ...ITM..NTM..OTM ?? ...I guess it's a personal choice for each person to figure out how they trade/profit best ..and I guess that takes time and experience to discover.

    Alex,
    Your post made PERFECT sense to me. ..Thank you. It sort of goes along with what Scott was trying to teach us about the time value/decay of options. Clearly, I need a better/deeper understanding of that concept.

    And for the record, Scott.... I absolutely was only kidding you about the math equation. I said nothing to offend.. or at least I hope I didn't if you go back and read my posts! ..Was basically making the point that you are a whoooooole lot smarter with a much deeper understanding of all of this than I can hope to have! ..Great work as always on your part ...and keep it up as we all benefit. :]

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  36. Convicted of counterfiting... for minting silver coins... government getting desperate?

    Peter Shiff link on the subject...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=-XWAZfAOwHk

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  37. @ Alex

    Just read your comment, and it is obvious that your ability to explain comes from your experience and understanding, something I don't have regarding options. I like your explanation from as far as my understanding goes.

    @ Ginger

    You won't offend me, especially with comments talking about black-scholes. I am much to light-hearted in real life to be offended by comments as respectful as yours. No need to apologize.

    ----
    Some good information on the past few threads, and as far as Turd's original post goes,

    Spot on as usual. We are becoming spoiled with such good content that we may even be forgetful that simple explanations for "complex issues" that you explain very nicely.

    You own ice cream shops!?!?!?
    -
    Scott

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  38. Casey Research covers the Liberty Dollar case and gives an excellent synopsis / angle on the story:

    http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/money-trial

    Goes well with the Schiff video

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  39. Turd's Frozen Yogurt- not great marketing.

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  40. Caramel,
    I believe also that the big banks have unlimited access to free money anytime they need, especially when they have such a vested interest in keeping gold down. Like Turd said...Gold price suppression is the key.
    The Fed. and Govt. know exactly what the banks PM's and derivatives positions are and how they will never be allowed to go under.
    If you were a bank and the biggest authority in the U.S. (Fed and W.H.) let it be known you had access to unlimited amonts of money at near 0% interest rate (and actually encouraged or forced you to do so) that you could borrow and spend recklessly if you knew there would be no reprecussions legally of financially, would you not do so? I would only if it didn't cripple or harm anyone else because of it.
    Thats the difference. They have no conscience or fear of anything it seems and the little people are just a hinderence in their eye's to more power and wealth.

    I believe that a sensational treason or corruption trial will happen. Within 5-10 years?

    As far as Ft. Knox and no gold. Heaven help us if thats the case and no national treasure exists. I belive it does and more tons then anyone realizes. I can't back that up of course but I don't think we would let ourselves get swindled or give our gold away to anyone for any reason. Think about it, why would the U.S. give our gold to any other country when we have been successfully selling (until 1-2 yrs ago) billions/trillions of paper i.o.u.'s forever in the form of treasuries etc.? I can't imagine a reason but something totally bizarre and sinister could be behind the scene's....NWO?
    I don't think so.
    I don't see a NWO between longtime adversaries happening bcause of a lack of trust overall. This supposed NWO would have been negotiated when in history and between whom?
    George Bush mentioned it but I think it was on the premise it would be the U.S. due to overwhelming military strength and no clear cut threat after the USSR went bankrupt.

    Have you watched Lindsey Williams on Alex Jones? Very compelling and believable if you ask me. Just think along those time lines he mentions and think of events that have taken place with oil and the $USD and treasuries etc. in exchange for our "muscle", Jewish tolerance by them, and continued buying of Saudi or M.E. oil. It's a full circle of believability.

    As far as counterfeit money and gold etc.
    It seems possible that with all the gold leasing and transferring about of gold that counterfeit gold could have been switched with the tungsten gold or super-counterfeit material that is being used abroad.
    That whole possibility leaves me a little uneasy to be truthful. The Chinese are clever and their whole plan since inception is based on their exceptionalism and a self awareness of their potential many centuries ago has been world domination at any cost. Slowly and surely is their M.O. and it's OK with them even if it takes another decade or 2 to do so.
    The Fed. exporting inflation is the U.S. way of trying to crash their gigantic bubble and keeping them at bay and weakened.
    Under that premise (and our suspicions of Russia still), I don't see any collusion between anyone to establish a NWO. I do think seperately that alot of countries want to bring us down obviously. I think that Russia and China using currency other then $USD is a start of a loose plan between them to weaken us where it would hurt most, our $USD and our budget.
    I also believe their our some very powerful, wealthy groups on this planet who might feel as though they are so powerful enough that world domination could happen but I think thats delusional thinking by them.
    That seems too orderly given the complexities and distrustful histories of the main countries towards each other.

    Think about Lindsey Williams and whats going on in the M.E.N.A. and the petro dollar and where we are at with our treasury debt and the Fed. doing unprecedented things in a huge way.
    There's an end game.

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  41. http://www.infowars.com/lindsey-williams-to-break-bombshell-info-on-alex-jones-show/


    Four short videos.

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  42. LOL Pat. :D

    ...My kids have just recently discovered the 'Skinny Dip' here ..a self serve frozen yogurt place. They love it ...and judging from the amount of traffic I see in there no matter what time of day.. it's a good business to have! ...I did notice how the bowls they provide are none too small.. ..They really count on the kids filling those things up with all the goodies and toppings and then they weigh the bowls and you pay by the ounce. YIKES....first time in there.. the cost for my 2 kids bowls were over $11.00 :O .....From that point on I gave them a half bowl limit. :D ...I wouldn't be your favorite customer, Turd. lol.

    ReplyDelete
  43. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIr6v5LYPdc

    I said," Nice try, granny, and I sent her to the back of the line"

    ReplyDelete
  44. Good evening, all. Do things heat up at 6:00 p.m. Turd time or did things change with Daylight Saving?

    Thanks to all for the clear discussion of options, etc., I am finally understanding. And using the probability of random poop distribution on this blog is awesome. And now I will think of yoghurt in terms of scoops (as in stoop and scoop) and droppings, not toppings.

    Scott - it is so nice that you take comments as intended, and I realize I do not know the 'whole Scott'. Internet communication is terse - both good and bad. It allows one to quickly get to the meat of a subject but it lends itself to misinterpretation and ill-will quickly too. I am a mum, and have a 20, 18 and 16 year-old. As my husband says, sometimes they are all odd! My middle child is the idealist and read philosophy extensively as a young teen and has passed through many incarnations in the past few years. I myself have passed through many political incarnations and have settled into a curmudgeonly desire to be left alone by government, but to feel compassion for my fellow man. Unfortunately, life has taught me to distrust any and all grand schemes. As to the intersection of math and reality - that is indeed a discussion for late nights and much thought. Do continue to take advice as well as you do - you are a highly intelligent young man and I am a highly intelligent mum. Years do teach. Thank god they are useful for something!

    ReplyDelete
  45. @HappyInTheWoods,

    Thanks for the information.


    @DarkPurpleHaze,

    I use to think Lindsey Williams was a crackpot. But, after he correctly called oil plunging from $150 to less that $50 a few years back, I'm a believer.

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  46. @darkpurplehaze. Go to the DailyBell.com and read the article on the NWO/Libya etc. It makes a lot of sense, especially since Hillary is such a big cheerleader and she's signed us up with the UN for small arms control worldwide and other abrogations of our sovereignty so that the UN calls all the shots.

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  47. Lindsey Williams is a source of misdirection from Rothschild Bankster Cabal just like Wikileaks and Glenn Beck. Anyone who has the appearance of effectiveness is being "allowed" for their purposes. If Williams had damaging info on them he would have been silenced by now. Nothing is random.

    ReplyDelete
  48. @Irene - I think you missed my point, which was that no one should take low commodity prices for granted. This should be especially applied to running a business, and even raising a family. To your point, what the Mystery Trader did was not illegal - Immoral and unfair perhaps, but just because it goes against our vision of an ideal world doesn't mean we should count that out of our life planning. Even if there was no QE or market cornering the developing world is growing a middle class that will make $100 oil seem like a bargain one day. So many factors contribute to the cost of the things we buy, and maybe we've had it easy up to now thanks to bill/trillions in debt that's been accumulating, but sorry I find it hard to tear up for anyone who feels entitled to their status-quo lifestyle without any regard for how the world really works.

    cheers -D

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  49. I would like to propose the following strategy for the week and welcome any comments:

    SLW - once this clears $46.48 buy and potentially buy some Jan 12 call options to juice the return.

    JOYG - they make mining equipment with the recent rise in commodities can only be doing well. Buy at current price of $102.

    USO - buy Jan 2012 $50 call options. Oil is going up, so get on the ride.

    JPM - so silver closed well over $36 at 3/31. When JPM releases quarterly earnings, if there is some truth to their massive short position, they will be taking some huge losses. Buy deep out of the money Jan 2010 put options.

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  50. Regarding Lindsey Williams.
    I won't disagree with anyone's view here.
    But is it inconceivable that a bunch of greedy oil/banker types told a pastor a few things due to some type of guilt complex and trying to seek some religious sympathy or absolution from a pastor?
    Seems plausible that in order for some religious closure or guilt they let their guard down in a trusted individual about their plans for oil and the backround of the plan. Just dribs and drabs and Lindsey put the obvious together and just couldn't say nothing forever.

    I'll read the dailbell.com after posting this. I look at the Clintons as part of that powerful, arrogant/delusional bunch who thinks they can control everything given a chance. However, it would take every resource from every Govt., including all the militaries involved co-operation etc. to pull it off.
    Just seems like too much global/individual coordination and more importantly, to trust all other individuals and countries to play exactly according to the plan and play fair.
    I don't doubt that there are groups (Bildenbergs) who feel they could pull it all off but that's a power delusion on their part. I don't see various militaries allowing it to happen on a coordinated effort. I do think massive markets manipulation is possible in a quasi NWO. Which is happening now in a global banking, stock markets, commodities way.
    There is global consolidation/manipulation among Central Banks and their markets, but the militaries wouldn't allow a true NWO. Too many people would have to be in on it and follow orders.

    Rick...
    I'm not sure what to think about WikiLeaks except for what you said about a headfake. Glen Beck is either psychotic or a genious. I still don't know honestly.

    It all boils down to petro dollars and influence in the Middle East.I think whats going on over there is all CIA, IMHO. We are kicking the hornets nest on purpose.
    I also think a huge Iranian presence is in all of those countries with Hamas, Hezbollah etc.
    Covert military/CIA operations going on all over the place fighting Iran while not "actually" at war but none the less, at war. This MENA is the beginning of what was inevitible, war with Iran through proxies in the beginning pahse and then eventual war after Israel gets involved. That also is inevitible. They will get dragged into it. Iran hopes.

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  51. Keep your eyes on the $USD and crude when they open.

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  52. Nathan,
    Those sound like logical calls. I am always cautious on oil and food related commodities. They can run, but they can also get the natives restless. I doubt if any incumbents wants to be running for office with $5 gas.

    I'm sure traders would love it, the CFTC and others would catch sh*t. We all tend to think gov't can do anything they want, but if that is the case why is there so much turmoil. It can't be great for business and other leaders are quickly losing confidence in the US. They'll have a hard time getting Russia and China on board again

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  53. I hate to disappoint but I see more sideways movement in the PM's this week. Unless more unrest or budget problems there going to creep up into the 4/7 meeting and then get hammered again. Silver will wait for gold and gold is waiting for the FED direction. I know, I know. their gonna print, but we have to play the game. Just by a little more physical.

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  54. On a depressing point to some. The other day some talk came up about social unrest and the need for protection. I picked up a kick around 45cal for my wifes car for under $150.

    It's feel isn't perfect for me, I am partial to H&K's and Kimber 911's, but if your looking for protection that won't cost you a fortune and your not planning on firing hundreds of rounds at a time. It's worth looking at.

    http://www.hi-pointfirearms.com/

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  55. Nathan...
    I have Jan. 12 call on USO, GG and SLW. Way out of the money. More affordable an they do exhibit movement. Just need a bit more volitility and for the all threeto keep rising in price.
    I have lots of time built in for that to develop as I feel like everyone else here, that Au, Ag and Oil are going up bigtime.

    I have some Jume 11 SDS calls waitig for the S&P to come down to reality but with the Fed. practically giving money away it makes me a bit uneasy. I still have lots of time but not a real lot.
    A sharp correction seems probable especially if they just flail away at this budget mess next week. What a pathetic mess.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Yesss!......Sabres just scored against Hurricanes...A'hem...sorry...had to cheer.
    Playoff type hockey is the best!

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  56. Excuse my typo's....hockey distraction

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  57. glad to see some hockey fans here :)

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  58. Don't know about you folks, but I am going to be sorely disappointed if silver doesn't quickly rip through 38 and start rising on the globex open... I just cannot see how we aren't in for some serious levitation. Start your engines!

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  59. Ferdinand...check out the Ruger LC9. It's a sweet little carry with a big gun punch. Under $400.00

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  60. There's a reason $1440 is an angel. Looking forward to clearing it convincingly and visiting our next angel.

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  61. DPH, I think if this is moving towards a NWO, then they'll require regional integration prior to global integration. Ergo, it makes practical sense to move towards a North American Union for example before moving to a global gov't. Reality is one who controls the printing printing presses controls more than one can imagine no? For interests to really what's in the long term best interests of citizens worldwide would, imo, take a group of extraordinary wealthy and powerful leaders who have a vision of freeing citizens worldwide away from forever being debt slaves.

    DPH, leafs fan here...odds are not great but rooting against the Sabres, Rangers & Hurricans this time around :)

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  62. $1510.00 just what the Dr. ordered.

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  63. The only block to one world gov't now is the most arrogant population in the world, the AmeriCOND people. That is why they want to break us financially, then starve us and take our guns somewhere along the way. They are systematically attacking all the countries left with an independent CB,Afghanistan,Iraq,Libya and next will be Iran and North Korea. Mission accomplished! China and Russia are already in the fold. The Rat Bastards can see the finish line!!!

    ReplyDelete
  64. The extraordinarily wealthy Rat Bastards are interested in enslaving populations not freeing them. We are far to "inferior" to have any say in world decisions.

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  65. Darth Smoker,
    Yes, sorry the older I get the fatter the fingers and my head gets

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  66. I wonder what happened to our buddy Afrum? I hope nothing untoward happened to him.

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  67. The Sabres have 2/3 of a good team. Next year will be better. They are a 9-10th place type team playing over their heads (sigh). Playoffs, maybe.
    I love the Leafs. Grew up watching Hockey Night in Canada every Sat.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    caramel,
    The NWO could be just a Central Bank type NWO. I think H.W. Bush's proclamation was a sort of power, wealth, manic moment he's been waiting his whole Skull and Bones life to proclaim.
    Think about the posts he has held his whole Govt. life. It's pretty impressive. Plus he was a rich boy in Yale with all his rich family friends and that whole Skull and Bones thing.
    The S&B was one of probably many young influential global,elite/power groups in college that sought to seek as much wealth and power as possible when possible in the future.
    Just imagine the total opposite of a hippie and what they stood for. (Nothing against hippies, you are all cool)
    Now imagine young, arrogant power wannabes from "old" money families and what they might aspire to be "someday".
    Whats happening today was born many, many decades ago.
    I think we have been seeing that "someday" the last 40 years or so and it's effect on all things that are PetroDollar related.

    ReplyDelete
  68. H.W.'s daddy was a founding member of the fed as well.

    ReplyDelete
  69. can we have a correction for once this week?

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  70. Google...THEY DARE NOT SPEAK IT'S NAME...ROTHSCHILD ZIONISM by David Icke It's an education.

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  71. Right off the wall again and again at 37.85.

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  72. Rick, I have never had the opportunity to firer a Ruger, well balanced?

    I have a concealment permit, put not much need. The most dangerous thing in my neighborhood is a housewife in a Lexus.

    When I do carry, I cringe and carry my H&K P30. Hate to do that though it's my baby.

    I picked up the high point when I was with a friend at a gun shop in the boonies. Had not seen one before. It's ok in a pinch. It is a $200 hand gun after all.
    The main reason I mentioned it was that my office manager has wanted a gun for her house for a year or so, but didn't want to drop the cash. When I told her she grabbed one and was really happy, protection without much cost.

    ReplyDelete
  73. Noble lot, the Bush's

    The bottom line is harsh: It is bad enough that the Bush family helped raise the money for Thyssen to give Hitler his start in the 1920's, but giving aid and comfort to the enemy in time of war is treason. The Bush's bank helped the Thyssens make the Nazi steel that killed allied soldiers. As bad as financing the Nazi war machine may seem, aiding and abetting the Holocaust was worse. Thyssen's coal mines used Jewish slaves as if they were disposable chemicals. There are six million skeletons in the Thyssen family closet, and a myriad of criminal and historical questions to be answered about the Bush family's complicity.

    http://www.rense.com/general26/dutch.htm

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  74. Caramel...to continue.

    The quasi-NWO could be what is happening now with Central Bank coordination and financial market consolidation globally.

    China seems to be on board with this. We peck at them about the Yuan and they mention our deficit and that seems to be where it ends. Their Premier was here last Dec. for "the Handshake" I think. You hear nothing really from Russia,India, Britain or France about us doing what we want militarily in any really serious way. There must be some "business" understandings between them. Even Venezuela is quiet and Iran somewhat also considering whats going on.
    The silence is deafening if you think about it. I mean, how likely is it that all of this stuff is occurring in the MENA all at once(while Japan is happening also)and it seems to be business as usual at this point. China and Russia say token things for appearance sakes and Turkey speaks up(who cares?) and thats about it, otherwise it's like "were doing what we have to do." and no one can do anything about it nor has any intention. Thats the only way I can see how a China/Russia did not veto the U.N. vote. Usually they always do.
    They know this is about PetroDollars and controlling the MENA has now come of age like they all knew it would eventually with aging Monarchy, it was inevitible. They also realize the U.S. has an unbelievable military capability and better let us shoot elsewhere as long as we stop givng them a hard time. We hardly ever rag on China or Russia these days.
    They are letting us do what we have to do
    to keep the Petroleum Industry going so that business (banking/commerce) can keep flowing smoothly.
    Everyone is dependent on oil everywhere. Without it, markets/countries collapse and they know it.

    ReplyDelete
  75. Ferdinand...Check out Hickok45 on youtube. He's got a real good review on LC9 Ruger. It's impressive.

    ReplyDelete
  76. I know the charts look good this week and fundos are still fantastic. I am cautious because the meeting on the 7th. If you were the TPTB, do you allow a rally before you put limits on everything, but the PM's or higher then 5K limits on PM's. I know Harvey thinks they will do something good, but when do they ever do that. So they piss off a few thousand traders, they could care less.
    The limits will not likely move this market it is the shortage and that won't change in a non delivery month with only a few contracts.
    So, I am thinking like James Turk watch gold and as it moves closer to backwardation, then the spring to forty. I think it's a guess either way

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  77. Silver looks like it's just coiling up ready to keep trending higher.

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  78. Wow...looks like I was right!
    (pretty cool :-)

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  79. DPH, why am I reminded of the borg from star trek? Where is our Jean-Luc Pickard and star-trek federation? :)

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  80. Good for the Sabres...and for silver!

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  81. I have no idea about borgs and Jean Luc...I'm a Kirk guy and Klingon, Romulans etc.

    I've honestly never watched an entire New Star Trek epidsode. It's Kirk or bust for me.


    Silver just bumped past $38

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  82. DPH, Sabres will be good moving forward. Lindy Ruff is my fav coach. His way or the high way. Looks like Leafs need to go 3-0 and Rangers 0-3. It was a great run nonetheless :)

    Nice run to $38. Even if this is sideways type week, consolidation is positive.

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  83. Hey Turdle! Can Aussies own a handgun?

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  84. $40 will happen this month.
    What a happy and positive thought that is.

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  85. I know this is biased, but I declare this Break OUT(UP) Sunday!

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  86. Rick,
    no way ! (unless you're a farmer or a cop or the like)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_politics_in_Australia

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  87. Rick,
    the Port Arthur massacre was the turning point for public perceptions. It's referred to it in the article.
    Unlike Americans, there is no strong feeling that we have a right to arms. In fact, most people are very happy with the very restrictive laws that we have.

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  88. Hey Turd,
    How about posting this video link on the new website. It seems appropriate.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bng3agUOYiI

    ReplyDelete
  89. Ferdinand or anyone else,
    what meeting is being held on the 7th? I read Harvey but didn't see it mentioned.

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  90. All Along the Watchtower

    There must be some kind of way out of here
    Said the joker to the theif
    Theres too much confusion
    I cant get no relief
    Business men they drink my wine
    Plowmen dig my earth
    None will level on the wine
    Nobody of it is worth

    No reason to get exited
    The thief he kindly spoke
    There are many here among us
    Who feel that life is but a joke
    But you and I weve been through that
    And this is not our fate
    So let us talk falsely now
    The hours getting late

    All along the watchtower
    The princess kept the view
    While all the women came and went,
    their foot servants, too.

    Outside in the cold distance
    A wild cat did growl
    Two riders were approaching
    And the wind began to howl

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  91. Turdle...that's too bad. It seems like you guys would make good, responsible gun owners. Not to mention freedom loving defenders of liberty.

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  92. Doesn't the forex chart look unusual? So many of the lines stopping at the same tops - it is usually much more varied, as gold is now.

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  93. I've never seen a law like that. If you have a gun you can use it for self defence but self defence is not a reason to own it in the first place. I guess you are expected to just die then.

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  94. been off line all day

    just saw the jump

    yay

    and Turd said if crude bumped up over 108 the PM's would follow

    yay Turd

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  95. POSX is circling the bowl again. Going down?

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  96. Rick,
    OK, but it's not relevant to the end of the Great Keynesian Experiment, so no more comments from me on the topic.

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  97. A little perspective on inflation - our food spends Jan/Mar and number of people home since 2007:

    2007 - $2,945.13 - 8
    2008 - $3,115.78 - 8
    2009 - $2,721.14 - 7
    2010 - $2,786.42 - 7
    2011 - $3,119.50 - 6

    This works out the the following PER PERSON, PER MONTH:

    2007 - $122.71
    2008 - $129.82 +5.8%
    2009 - $129.57 -0.2%
    2010 - $132.68 +2.4%
    2011 - $173.31 +30.6%

    These are the REAL numbers, and trust me, we have NOT upgraded our eating style! It was a real eyeopener doing the numbers.

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  98. Looking good so far but I think we'll need an overnight high of at least 38.50 to survive the EE early AM beatdown and still open above 38 (the regularly scheduled 8:00-8:15 strafing run will be good for at least -30 cents, by itself). Still, Monday is looking GOOD if you were long into the close Fryday. Go silver!

    ReplyDelete
  99. Shill, that is awesome that you were able to compile such accurate figures. Thanks for sharing.

    ReplyDelete
  100. Not sure if anyone has posted this yet, but Eric De Groot's latest post on gold is good:
    battle to control gold will be fierce

    As usual, don't spend too much time trying to decipher his charts, just focus on the overall message.

    ReplyDelete
  101. DarkPurpleHaze,
    I assume you prefer the Hendrix version?

    ReplyDelete
  102. Turd what happened to the new website? You said it was supposed to be ready Apr 1st, tell those web developers to get back on track! You have many skilled IT people here among the Turdites. Don't let those web geeks jerk you around! If there is anything that can be done to help, just say the word you have a lot of volunteers here that would probably rival the IT department of the mourge itself. Love the site as it has been but still looking forward to the next phase of your vision.

    ReplyDelete
  103. Regarding today's post

    Any recommendations on how to play cocoa and coffee? ETF's?

    ReplyDelete
  104. Sorry ..Blev

    New site postponed to 5/1/2011, per TF on a previous thread last week.

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  105. I love the late Sunday trade... it always is so fun to watch silver open upwards to start the week!

    Word verification: Whoat -- A combination of Wheat and Oat... something everyone should stockpile

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  106. Only one I'm aware of. Tell me more. I'm sure I'm missing out on something regarding Along the WatchTower.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    And silver just wants to keep going upward. How nice!
    Amazing how gold can just hold a consistent line at times for long stretches.

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  107. Turdle GG: Love that Degroot chart for gold. The battle of all battles is clearly at 1440.

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  108. All Along the Watchtower Symbolism, Imagery & Wordplay.


    http://www.shmoop.com/all-along-the-watchtower/symbolism-imagery.html

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  109. Okay, so I'm bothered. But why is it that the info from the Larouche PAC page regarding the bust in Italy last week is nowhere to be found. It either a) didn't happen or b) is being covered up, and I don't know which. Here's the thing: if this is true then it's possible that much of U.S. debt is held in non-redeemable treasure bonds. To me (if I held them) that would make me nervous, and markets don't like nervousness - though pm's usually do. (Of course, that was back when there was more response to fundamentals relative to the market manipulation.)

    And it also bothers me that people don't seem to give much care to what happened (and is happening) to Bernard von NotHaus. He's being hung out to dry to make a point that anyone who holds gold and silver is going to care about. If you don't know about the Liberty Dollar case, it is one of fundamental importance at the end of this Keynesian experiment. :-(

    The other Michael

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  110. B - Whoat indeed. It should be a word, some sort of mediaeval verb - he not whoat he had done, but he knew it was bad - but look at silver opening upwards to start your happy week. Whoat a happy turn of affairs!

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  111. Jimi, I've been using www.netdania.com for some time. It's highly configurable.

    keep climbing and keep stacking - 38/1430 and up...

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  112. Michael the other - I think there was a bust back in June of 2009 but it turned out not to be all it seemed. Did you google it? I immediately got stories from this earlier bust.

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  113. DPH Netdania:

    http://www.netdania.com/Products/live-streaming-currency-exchange-rates/real-time-forex-charts/FinanceChart.aspx

    Under instruments pick spot silver (or whatever you wish); there is a volum button along the top - looks like green and red lines.

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  114. @Rick

    You can play cocoa with NIB and coffee with JO.

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  115. Haze,
    Yeah, Dylan (the song's writer) recorded it first. It was on an album called 'John Wesley Harding.' Good times, good times...

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  116. Paul,

    When I mention roll, I siply mean sell April, buy July. Preferably sell during a strong move up and wait for the next dip to buy. I find SLV options somewhat akin to PSLV premium - when AG is in a bull run, the option price gets inflated. When AG price is in a raid, the bottom falls out of SLV options. Best to have a limit order ready and wait for the market to come to you.

    April and May are generally strong months for Gold so while I'm tempted to sell my April calls and wait for the next correction, I'm more inclined to buy July calls and keep my fiat in play through Juneish.

    Ginger - Glad that description made sense to you.

    Scott- For a young man, you intellect is most definately well beyond your years. I enjoy reading your posts - we all learn from each other.

    Irene - My wife has started to call me the "Bad News Bureau" haha. I think she liked your comment awhile back!

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  117. Speaking of good times, as TF's update pointed out, looks like the Monday party is getting started in the East.

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  118. everythings going up why would silver go down. silver 38 its more used valuable than all other commodities in real world use value. think about it. if milk bread and tuna start to drop at the supermarket without the size getting smaller i might worry about silver being less valuable. until the fubm btfd and eat my dust!!!!

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  119. oh yeah more people die in genocide mass murder in africa every day than libya but hey africa don't have oil usa wants so no humanitarian war for you

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  120. http://freeserv.dukascopy.com/chart/?stock_id=334&stock_id=334&interval=1&points_number=200&view_type=candle&width=400&height=300&show_labels=true&osc_type=-1&rfi=false&height=300&p1=2&p2=3&p3=7&c=4111349&detach=true&copyr=true&refcode=e79627ddb7c6b73d4455b3bb630a378af7abf72c3319d76ed7ea06ef06a6a7133c7e816d752f70753b836b

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  121. @ragedsmaximus

    It hit a wall of sell orders at its previous high, and then algos took it down to some intra-level support. Higher Highs and Higher lows is all we should be looking for. Silver is going up... and this week looks to be a very interesting week indeed. Options expiration + end of month tends to be cyclical low, so I would imagine a leg-up to start now (fresh wave of buying?)

    This will change the market dynamics... it will be noticed by many more people.

    Dunno if I missed your point, but anyways..
    Time to tackle xty's challenge.

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  122. I don't know if anyone else has noticed this, but the price of PM's hasn't been going up that significantly in Canadian dollars.

    The recent high of 37.42 on mar 23 converted to 36.69 in Canadian dollars.

    Today at 38.07 it's converting to 36.65 Canadian

    This year the high close in Canadian was 36.69

    Last Friday, the price actually dropped for the day.

    I'm not sure why, but we aren't getting the big jump that you are..

    I haven't posted before, mainly because my attempts fail and get deleted. I'm new to this as well, and read the blog and comments often. I'm kind of curious why there is such a significant difference in the last 2 weeks between Canadian and American values, up until now they were fairly close.

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  123. sorry, in my post I was talking about silver

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  124. My corn past experience....

    I am on a special diet (no thanks to the Kidney Foundation, who tell people to eat what they like and then hustle them off to dialysis)...so I eat a lot of Mrs. Leepers organic corn pasta. A serving a day.
    A few months ago, I did some ordering of my special products...the ones that are imported, like the Mrs. L and the Kaset bean threads from Thailand.

    WELL, then, a case of 12 was $33 and change.
    When I looked last night....OUCH...it's now $39.74!
    If I go on a delivery plan, it goes back to 33.74...but, the price will go up, of course, but there will be some discount at least.

    I bought enough for the rest of this year and all of next year...but, I'm think that as I finish a case, to have a replacement delivered every 2 months (72 servings per case).

    EEK!

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  125. I have no idea where the "past" came from....it should read...
    My CORN EXPERIENCE! LOL!

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  126. J - copy any long comment before you hit 'post comment' - it is nothing nefarious. The difference in the price has to do with the currency exchange and the Canadian dollar has been doing even worse than the US. I have been trying to watch the currencies when silver and/or gold make a move and sometimes it seems that the pound, aussie or canadian dollar will go down when the us dollar really needs a boost. I wonder if it is an ally thing? we are being used in the whole usd/jpy trade balance?

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  127. Hey - the numbers have changed on the netdania chart, and are all rounded up. What gives?

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  128. Never mind - I am an idiot.

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  129. There are many lessons to be learned here:

    "Federal prosecutors go to court in North Carolina on Monday in an attempt to obtain government ownership of an estimated $7 million in “Liberty Dollars” and silver bullion seized as contraband at a private mint in Coeur d’Alene." http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2011/apr/03/bogus-coins-bullion-seized-in-cda-become-focus-of/

    Also, I don't believe anyone ever prosecuted the people trying to pass $134 billion in fake bonds overseas...
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/06/19/usa-italy-counterfeit-idUSN1946360420090619

    It's very telling which one is deemed the bigger threat.

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  130. BTW, h/t goes to coinflation.com. I'm relying more and more on that site.

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  131. Turd,

    Since you went golfing yesterday, perhaps you can verify something.

    Is is true that because of inflation people are now yelling 'five' instead of 'fore'?

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  132. @Insight said...

    My corn past experience....

    I read your "Porn Cast" experience.......

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  133. Portion of an article posted by GATA...

    The decades-long ban on gold purchases by ordinary Americans was lifted in 1974 following the collapse of the gold standard, so it is a relatively new form of investment.

    BANK OFFICIALS say any moves toward greater acceptance of precious metals in the mainstream financial system would entail logistical hassles.

    "We would not support anything that would require us to spend a lot of money to buy the equipment to weigh and measure any of this currency," said Howard Headlee, president of the Utah Bankers Association.

    Bullion isn't likely to become a common feature of the U.S. monetary system any time soon, said Jon Nadler, an analyst at Montreal-based Kitco Metals, which buys and sells coins and bars made of precious metals.

    If someone were to try to make a typical purchase with an American Eagle, "just picture the face of the clerk in Wal-Mart," Mr. Nadler said.
    LOGISTICAL Hassles, and confusing a Wal Mart employee.. Good enough reasons for me to dump my useless metal.
    So rejoice all of you "other half of the world" people. You've mastered logistics (well you, and UPS)
    You are, in fact, far superior to America
    Peace everybody

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  134. I wonder what TF's shirt size is. I've found the perfect gift:
    http://www.cafepress.com/+Kansas+-+Danger,+Flying+Monkeys!+Golf+Shirt,260994802?cmp=pfc--f--us--045--260994802&utm_term=260994802&utm_campaign=Golf+Shirt&sourcecode=affiliate&utm_source=froogle&utm_medium=productfeed&pid=6673073

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  135. @J The reason is that Silver (and Gold) are priced in US fiat. As the USDollar gyrates relative to Canada's you will see a difference.

    If you had bought silver when Canada's dollar was 80 cents US (and some amerifriends called it the Canadian Peso) then you'd be down 20% on exchange.

    The acceptance of the USDollar as the international pricing standard for so many things is actually one of the reasons that the US Fed has been able to get away with money printing sort of working. Note that China and India are now doing tests that cut the USDollar out of the loop so that they can avoid being held hostage to it. Expect Canada to remain hostage for a long long time.

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  136. Just watched the 60 min's fraudclosure vid, it made me ill! I want to buy a house but jeez, this shit scares the hell out of me.


    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/thanks-60-minutes-report-fraudclosure-us-gdp-about-soar-50-billion

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  137. Chiming in at 11:45 PM EST / 8:45 PM PST.

    For the past two weeks, I have doing an experiment.

    Since I am not a paper trader and refuse to be one, I am interested only in hypothetical yield of a hypothetical physical silver and gold allotment.

    Based upon the Kitco reported spot silver and gold price, what would be the hypothetical yield over the past two weeks?

    I know that TF enjoys playing paper, but I am not of the trading clan.

    I am but an American pauper in a vast kingdom where his majesty praces with great proclamations. His deputies have bankrupted me by raiding my community, my family, and community. Some families now lie destitute in small abodes which are not ours. We have been turned out of our futures and our posterity has been little more than a backlash and keystroke to his Majesty's treasurer. His majestry makes his great proclamations from in front of cameras and in every foreign land, but he does not cast his eyes upon our town because the pain and loss here is to devastatingly real. How ironic that while His Majesty is threadbare, he believes he is worth much.

    Such hypocrisy and utter ignorance!

    His treasurer has bankrupted the nation and his vault is empty. Yet, the paper dances like burning embers floating on the gusting spring winds. The paper floats up and down in the clouds, nay, I should say the valleys of doubt where these papers of trade float.

    Whether I or we sit or stand as his Majesty's caravan of Hope proceeds, the paper still descends... oddly pulled... gravity and gravitas are both pulling in the same direction.

    Oh for silver and gold... where art thou?

    The Merchant of Venice, that knave who speaks with forked tongue, did trade our precious metals for his paper. That same paper burneth with great fury in the Eastern furnace of the treasury tonight.

    Lo! Hark! A merry band of coloriful merchants approaches our mudfilled slum. It is they of the treasury. Warm in the glow of the paper burning furnace, adorned in the freshly smelted glitter of gold and silver. Is that my silverware? My loving wive's engagement ring?

    The coin my grandfather passed to me and which was for my posterity?

    And, then, pray thee, I awake from my day dream.

    The knaves of the treasury still burn!

    My average yield by doing nothing other than holding that "hypothetical silver and gold" for just two weeks.

    Tonight spot price of gold= $1429.50
    Two weeks ago spot price of gold = $1419.50
    Yield = 0.70% over two weeks
    Annualized = 0.7 x 26 = 18.3% !

    Tonight spot price of silver = $38.06
    Two weeks ago spot price of silver = $35.74
    Yield = 6.49% over two weeks
    Annualized = 6.49 x 26 = 169% !

    And, now, I rest.... puzzled.
    Is the Merchant who burns his paper helping me?
    For his treasury only prints more when he chooses?

    Shylock? Where for art thou?
    Should we prick this balloon or not?
    Do you have more gold and silver to sell me?

    I think you do :)

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  138. J - I am Canadian. The reason why silver has not been performing as well in Canadian dollars is because the Canadian dollar ISN'T FALLING as fast as the US dollar.

    The silver priced in CDN right now is $1.43 less than that priced in USD. Since $36 is about a third of 100, let's multiply 1.43 * 3 = $4.29 - or about 4 cents since we multiplied by 100.

    Now, look at the exchange rate of CDN - USD. It is $0.96. Do you see where that four cents fits in? Right there.

    All it means is that the fires burning the Canadian fiat paper are smaller than the ones burning the US dollar.

    What puzzles me though is why my American stocks have not performed as well as my Canadian ones. I have SIL and AXU on the US side.

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  139. BrotherJohnF supplied this link.
    Nicely constructed video and info on dollar and debt.
    http://www.youtube.com/user/burchish#p/a/u/2/YQCykYAnrEY

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  140. Asia markets closed today & tomorrow for holiday.

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  141. From a Facebook Friend, may want to search for yourself if you have Facebook.

    There's a site called spokeo.com that's a new online USA phonebook with personal info - everything from pics you've posted on FB or the web, your approx. credit score, home value income, age, even CC #'s. Remove yourself by searching your name, find your page, copy the URL, & then go to the bottom of the page & click on the privacy link

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  142. Thank you Scott.

    That is just downright frightening, if none too surprising.

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  143. Scott

    I'll second Letey's thank you. I mean, no woman likes to have her age out there for everybody to see! (On a serious note, it's all a bit too much.)

    Thanks again. ;)

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  144. Xty, the phony T-bonds were reported only one place that I can find (and no, it's not the '09 case.) I'm thinking that it's possible that I am simply nuts - because it would seem that (if true) this ought to be a huge piece of financial news...but I cannot find it past one particular site. And I'm not prone to trusting LarouchePAC. Can anyone help enlighten me? Is this an April Fool's joke or does somebody perhaps hold billions in funny paper? Weird.

    story of fake US T-Bonds in Italy

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  145. Woah.. someone's stepping on the gas here. Up 50 cents since the open.

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  146. Gotta love the new 30 year highs in silver! All the metals are up strong!

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  147. Wow - there is a sight for sore eyes!

    And J - yes, it would take fewer more valuable Canadian dollars to buy silver and more, less valuable American dollars when the price appears lower in Canadian. But there has been some very unusual movement in currency lately. And I had noticed a while back that in Australian dollars there had been no pull back in silver and that an Australian or Canadian would have a very different impression of the price action.

    If the Asian markets are closed, who is doing all this buying?

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  148. get ready to BTFD when the EE beatdown comes today..

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  149. Ferdinand - you are more than welcome to be wrong in this fashion.

    And Carl, I hope you are wrong.

    trollercoaster - what are we looking for, 20?

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  150. "Ferdinand said...
    Boy was I wrong, go silver!"

    Well, at least you're so honest to admit it. That's commendable.

    Last week when silver was getting slightly beaten (1$ or so) there were again those voices that said, it might go down to 36, and when it breaks that we could go down to 35, and when we go that low we could drop down straight to 33, 32.

    I kind of laugh inside when I read something like that. Okay, not everyone can understand the market, but I don't get it why almost everyone can get this scared.

    There is an enormous, UNPRECEDENTED silver shortage, going hand in hand with unprecedented backwardation. Lots of coin/bullion dealers are out of various products (my shop is out of 1000oz bars since December, which I have NEVER seen before). Various mints and even industrial users are reporting physical shortages. Since industrial AND investment demand is steadily increasing AND government stockpiles have been depleated over the last 50 years and since last year there is NOTHING left, this shortage is PERMANENT. Yes, we will never see a silver surplus again. Silver mining will run out in 1-3 decades according to USGS and until then there will be an ever greater gap between demand and supply.

    If you have been watching the COT reports over the last few years, you'll see that the paper market has pretty much always dictated the price.. UNTIL NOW. The iron fist of the COMEX paper market has been broken. Bullion bank short exposure nearly doesn't matter anymore.. they supply short and smack the price down, a few hours later the market is up again and the EE is sitting on yet another stack of underwater shorts. They've run out of tricks, the market will run away from them this year.

    There is no correction in sight, they've thrown everything at it in January and are out of ammo. Any 1-2$ dip should be bought at this point.

    Silver is in the same, almost 6 months consolidation sideway trading range as gold.. only that despite all their efforts they couldn't even make silver trade sideways, it still went up slightly.
    Look for them to give up this ~1400$ range the next 1-3 months and buy back some of their shorts to let it break out to probably around 1600. Look for silver to not break out, but to EXPLODE out of that range, to 50-60$ in the summer, and possibly up to 100$ later this year.

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  151. 20 what?

    and why do we need twenty of them?

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  152. Reefman,
    I'm sure that AXU will explode next month when results are out. They will also update the resources before the end of Q2.
    It's my top pick besides the my core holding
    in SLW.

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  153. Gold:Silver almost down to 37:1. We'll probably get there this week.

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  154. OMG - Gold escaped its shackles!

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  155. Well Marcus,

    Pretty optimistic assessment of the future of PM's. You mean no summer doldrums this year? Always when the traders go away and are on vacation the price drops like a rock especially in June when in the past I would do my yearly buying of physical. I have been expecting that one of these summers the fundamental seasonals simply would be overwhelmed by other fundamentals, such is a massive shortages, collapse of the value of the dollar, or some other mega-catastrophic event. Well, I don't know if this is the summer. I'm not yet convinced but we are getting awfully close. We shall see !!

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  156. Markus - I have been a lonely bull here on occasion, but I think that most of the posters who show up and call for a really big dip are trolls - hence the trollercoaster joke. Most agree with TF's calls of 1600 by Memorial Day for gold and an explosion in silver - similar to your predictions. Any chance you would like to add a bet to the pool about when silver hits $40? I have a list of about 6 posters bets so far, and I see that TF says we might approach $40 this week, and at least two of the bets are for this week.

    Strongside - that is most interesting - silver is king.

    Jake - I think it was actually Obsolete Man who called for silver to dip to 20, before he got so worked up he wanted to buy it when it was worth nothing. A 'me' appeared at the top of this thread - me wanted 30 or 31. It is not that they were wrong, before someone jumps on the intolerant bandwagon, it was their attitude and timing. This morning I would take 20 cups of coffee - but might get 20 dollars an ounce extra for gold.

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  157. I just realized I have twenty pair of shoes.

    Maybe that's it.

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  158. Xty, short term, imo anything can happen.. I don't bet on short term movements. What you can predict with good accuracy is when the EE is going to run out of their ammo for medium term.. and that's gotta be soon for that ~6 month 1400$ consolidation range. So, sorry, I won't give a prediction for 40$ silver, but I agree it's entirely possible to get there this week.

    TF has called for 1600 gold by end May/beginning of June? Good call imo... TF is one smart f***er :).

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  159. Greetings from Ennstal, Markus! Expat or Einheimisch?

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  160. @ Scottj88, et al
    More info on spokeo.com
    http://www.snopes.com/computer/internet/spokeo.asp

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  161. ben_roberts, imo when you see how little effect those various smackdowns have on price compared to what effect they used to have, I would say something HAS fundamentally changed.

    A smackdown like the ones over the last few weeks that beat silver down 1, 2 dollars, something with that force back in 2007-2009 would have knocked silver back several dollars over weeks or months, as James Turk, Adrian Douglas etc have pointed out.

    Imo, the whole 138k open interest on silver could be dropped today, and we would still be over 30$ by the end of the week, on account of the physical market. The paper market has a short term effect, but when the industrial users just NEED their silver, they will not haggle for it, they will pay what the sellers want.

    Good article on the topic: https://marketforceanalysis.com/articles/latest_article_081810.html

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  162. Xty - my bet is that silver will get over $40 for the first time on Tuesday 12th April, at 15:15 NY time.

    Probably get as far as $40.19, before dropping back down to $37 - 38 on the Tues evening/Wed/Thur. Then back up on the FRYday...!

    Now that's what you call a specific call... ;-)

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  163. austriansilver,

    i kumm vo daham!

    Hehe -> Waldviertel.

    Schöne Grüsse ins Ennstal.

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  164. Diplocat - perhaps you could include minutes and hours? That is the most specific yet, and I will add you to the roster. I believe the winner and all the losers had to donate the equivalent of an ounce of silver to a local charity of their own choosing - so given that you can be your own local charity, it is a pool anyone can afford to enter. I believe you are the first to take the 12th.

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  165. Markus, nice, Waldviertel. I'm originally from Chicago, fled in the early 70's to Switzerland, worked in hotels. Put my paycheck in gold even back then. Met my wife who was a guest at a hotel where I worked (Tessin). Our physical is mostly Philharmonics with paper silver (bought at $8) in Switzerland. Too bad about Mehrwertsteuer in silver... email can be seen in profile

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  166. I've got a buttload of cash on the sidelines waiting to allocated toward physical on any sign of weakness. Haven't really gotten any such sign lately. Pretty cool to experience. As much as I hate fed notes, I might as well keep some around for the initial days after SHTF and also for acquiring more of the shiny stuff if a market-wide panic sets in.

    The RCM 99.999% bars are getting harder to get...

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  167. Even Blythe has been captured by spokeo.com

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  168. Diplocat - you have the 12th alone.

    Paul Breed - if you are out there, I just checked the betting and realized I don't have a specific bet for you - just a general bullish call.

    Markus - there has been an astonishing consolidation. I am very confident about the floor under silver and gold, silver especially. The shortage is very real as you say.

    I just went mad and bought a few more ounces from First Majestic. Cannot resist as I see the price shooting up - web price was 39.50 and came out to 40.42 with shipping. Could seem a bargain soon, and worst case I have increased my holdings. I do find that I simply don't worry about the value of the physical we have.

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  169. @ Markus,

    I am fully aware of this latest round of attacks and the failure of the constant attacks during the whole of last month. Also, backwardation is another sign that things are in tight supply. Indeed, things may have changed such that the EE has run out of ammunition. I sure hope so. Nothing would make me happier. However, I have had my hopes dashed so many times, especially in recent years when it seemed like their power and control was inexhaustible. No one hates the EE more than I do. They are the biggest and baddest criminal gang in the history of mankind. Just to see them lose control over the PM's alone, would be such a joy, not to mention the control over everything else they have accumulated over the centuries. Regardless, it seems they attack everyday now to little or no avail. I think they watch and attempt to control to some degree the price 24/5. Why else would the increase the hours of Globex to 23 hours a day. It has been getting very interesting lately to say the least. I believe 1600 and 50 are doable in this climate and especially if everything you have said is true. I don't doubt it one bit for one minute. But, what happens in your opinion in June, traditionally the weakest month of the year? Perhaps, just a pause or very mild retracement and consolidation period until late summer?

    Thanks for your considered opinion.

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  170. Comex opens in about five minutes at 8:15 est. Watch out below or above? Any comments?

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  171. Jake - 20? That is getting up there - I thought you were a male. (ducks) We are a family of 5, and that would mean 100 pairs of shoes, and that would explain my front hall.

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  172. xty

    You are collecting picks for $40 silver? Put me down for April 26, 2011.

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  173. ben, thanks for your opinion too. I'm with you on most.

    Regarding "But, what happens in your opinion in June, traditionally the weakest month of the year? Perhaps, just a pause or very mild retracement and consolidation period until late summer?"

    Industrial demand doesn't take a break ;). Unless the economy crashes again, which will happen sometime the next few years when the effects of money printing wears out, but I don't think just now.


    Considering the debate if something has indeed changed fundamentally, I'd say backwardation at these kind of prices confirms this, combined with:

    http://treo.typepad.com/.a/6a0120a6002285970c014e87079537970d-800wi -> the correlation of paper positions and price being broken

    and:

    http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1297089623.php -> another correlation being broken


    Always trust facts and logic over fear or desire.

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  174. Am getting my next batch of physical after I see the results of the PFDSO (Post-Forty-Dollar Sell-Off). It might only slide to $38.xx, in which case I'll have been daft for waiting and not just buying now.

    But if it went lower, I'd kick myself for having bought at this stage. I think there's an outside chance we could see $35.xx again - if that happens, I'll be putting every cent I can find into physical silver.

    I'd be interested to know others' strategies for the PFDSO.

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  175. If its its 1600 gold by summer, and the silver gold ratio only remains the same @37, Were looking at $43 silver minimum.+5 bucks by summer!Not to shabby.

    But, being physical silver is so dry right now,and with the possibility of QE3 in summer,and numerous other reasons, I think that's pretty conservative for silver.

    My guess is about 50+ bucks ,by Aug,Sept.65 70 by DEC.

    That's craziness , The only downside I can see, is reduced industrial use as the price increases , and less buying of those products .

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  176. Diplocat

    I'm still figuring on a BTFD moment somewhere between here and 4/15. Sorry to rain on anyone's parade. Then higher toward 40 toward months end. Feels vastly premature to be planning on how to play the PFDSO.

    If I'm wrong on the near term, don't cry for me. Got plenty of exposure that will have gone up!

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  177. @Xty hate to split hairs but I do anyway...

    Is the call for when silver hits 40 sometime in trading or when it is the daily COMEX close?

    Put me down for the 11th to cross 40 and the 13th to be there at close.

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  178. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  179. I just noticed that the volume on silver futures from 1am to 8am is about twice the norm for that time of day. A positive sign... I keep waiting for the daily beat-down, but it has not happened yet...

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  180. If ever I wanted a pull back, it would be this week , This shit is getting exspensive!!!!

    I dont think more than high 36 -37 then up again .

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  181. F, You will not see industrial use just decline unless there is a global economic panic or disaster. Manufacturers cannot just replace silver with other metals when making goods. There are no replacements for silver in many industrial applications.

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  182. ben - I think we are going basically straight up to 40 - then we might muck around for a bit. I started to write this and got distracted. Do you think that was it?

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  183. B, Im not saying it will for a fact, but you have to consider it a possibilty , if the prices of those products increase in price , they may not move as much .

    Combined with the great econmic outlook for the summer (inflation creep) I can see the useage being reduced .

    then factor in Japans reduced useage as they spend money on building materials and less on Iphones cars ect,

    yeah, I think its factor.

    Im no expert,butI think at some point it has to play into it.

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  184. Eric - How did you get missed! Have you in for the long shot now, I do believe.

    Happy - I almost panicked and thought you and I were going to the mat over something, but this I can cope with. I think we are going to have to say an actual Comex close above 40 - perhaps you could be the adjudicator? And I have both your bids recorded.

    F - how about picking a date for $40? You are all around it, and it is merely a fun wager amongst cyber pals.

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  185. Ok,Ill take the over and say 40 on Friday !!

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