Sunday, April 17, 2011

Hoping For A Dip?

Judging by the amount of queries in my inbox, it would seem that many of you are.

Hmmm. Train leaving the station without you? Did the top-calling trolls with no understanding of the fundamentals spook you out last week? Well, there will undoubtedly be a dip at some point this week so we all need to be prepared. The dip may be tonight, tomorrow, Tuesday or Wednesday. Who knows? We do know, however, that there will be a moment in time when silver will sell off and then bottom. We must be prepared so that we can recognize this opportunity when it presents itself.

As we go through the week, I'll try to update this chart at least once a day. For now, if things do head south overnight, here are some levels top watch. The strength of the support increases as price falls, so, 41.80 is stronger support than 42.50. 41.40 would be stronger still. I'd back up the truck if we saw 40.50.
That's it for tonight. I have a last in silver at 43.13 and gold is 1487. Have a great overnight. See you in the morning (U.S.). TF

188 comments:

  1. H or colredsky, if you're out there, here are a few more for the sheet:

    Don N 44.45
    Swineflogger 46.45
    John H 42.50

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  2. Ferguson: "We do know, however, that there will be a moment in time when silver will sell off and then bottom. We must be prepared so that we can recognize this opportunity when it presents itself."
    ---
    Are you talking the mother of all dips here? Will there be a way to tell when the selloff will begin, or when it bottoms out? Please keep us posted about that one, as it seems it might be the most important event coming the endgame. :)

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  3. Those who like miners keep an eye on ORKO tomorrow. Went up .20 in the last two days but still a bargain @ 2.72 can. Will more than make up for any loss Pan Am, suffers in Bolivia.
    Nothing to gain here as I'm all in and won't be selling until we're bought out and if shares are offered maybe not even then.

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  4. Seriously, what the fuck is $US doing...

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  5. Wow. The dollar is up .21 and silver is up .17 Can't wait till the dollar drops.

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  6. Irene and H
    I took advantage of that (3% fee..o%)....got a monster for under 10000 they offered to extend that deal another year !! I did it.....I'm 13 months into it with 11 months to go at a total cost of $600. My dealer wants to buy it back every time I see him...no deal

    (last post from last thread....repost)

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  7. I can't speak for TF but I believe TF means a sell off relative to where we are at presently. He mentions $40.50 and not a crash like bottom that you might be imagining.
    At this point and with the type of buying we have been seeing constantly on all the EE raids a $2.00 - $3.00 dip would be huge. I'm ready no matter what 1st thing tomorrow.
    At this point I don't even see us dipping below $40.
    Hitting $50 is more likely to happen quicker then $40 IMHO

    TF is right as usual. I'm kind of hoping for a kitchen sink like raid in the a.m. like last week so I have a better entry point to strengthen my positions further.

    A attempt will be made by the EE at some point and in this shorter week it could all happen very quickly. And if they don't even try then well it's game over for the EE possibly.
    I think it's about to get real nuts and I'm not alone.

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  8. Wouldn't it be loverly... the dollar up AND silver up...

    aka

    "Heads I win, Tails you lose..."

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  9. Not surprised about Walmart stocking emergency supplies. Many who follow Jim Sinclair and others know of their admonitions that we all need to be getting prepared to live in a time where they will be some serious disruptions in our normal way of life. Most significantly after securing your bullion is to have a storage of essentials socked away to last until the economic shock wears off. A great web site I use is Emergency essentials (www.bepreparedcom). In my place I have an area set aside with enough necessities to last awhile and am adding every so often.

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  10. Jimmy...Forgot to add...keep your eye's on the KITCO.com live charts all the time to see how things flow. You'll see where the dips start and stop, real obvious once you recognize the pattern.
    The strength of the buying is startling whenever a dip of significance ($.30-.50 maybe) happens.

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  11. DPH,
    No, you're not alone. I think it's about to get wild, also.

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  12. @ SilverGoldSilver

    Time for the Euro to fall again it seems to once again save the the dollar just in time for Bernanke to lie to the world once again. They need to make it look like the dollar didn't just crash through key support levels on its way to the shitter. Temporary chart painting seems to be the powers main gig to fooling the sheep. Logic doesn't play out yet unfortunately, as short term the monopoly men have full reigns through to manipulate their system. However, each time they do it, they make mistakes and shorten their days amongst the top.

    Giant global ponzi scheme for the loss....

    Appreciate the work you do.
    -
    Scott

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  13. P.S.

    If Goldman Sachs thinks the Euro/USD is going to 1.50, you can be sure it won't make it there.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-raises-eurusd-target-150-sets-135-stop

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  14. For me, I'm hoping for a pullback as a sign of strength. I want a test of _ANY_ support before I do any more buying. I'm looking to buy $1000 junk soon...

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  15. Jimmy - gonna get cranky on you here - the questions you ask are answered in Turd's post. He gives you support levels and an ultimate bottom - when he talks about backing up the truck you know he thinks that is a bottom. I'm coming down on you just because this happens a lot it seems to me - especially from people asking questions that imply you are expecting a major drop.

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  16. Hey Bro D....Can't wait until that one day when it's like "OMG! Look at it go!"

    It's going to happen and I hope we are all online together when it does so we can all watch and talk about it together.

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  17. Scott and DPH - per an earlier conversation - I just looked and guess who is down against the dollar. The Nato allies.

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  18. Henrix (thats you DPH ;) ) Thanks for the input. Where are ppl placing their stinks bids this week?

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  19. Bro D - that makes three of us. And I think I can safely add Scott to that list.

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  20. DP,
    I think they will that - hyper-parabolic!

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  21. right on Xty...
    with all the chit chat going on here, it can b easy to get distracted.
    The captain of the ship is who we most aught to listen... The man has said much even with few words.

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  22. Turd,
    What will be the point to begin conversion from Silver/Gold to real estate?

    www.thegraystonefarm.com

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  23. Here's something ironic - my son paid off his student loan for a finance degree by doing what the school told him NOT to do - invest in PMs!
    That same school also taught the importance of credit (using other people's money) to finance your business.
    He graduated before 2008. Makes me wonder what they think of credit and PMs now. I suspect they still haven't changed much.

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  24. Yeah probably another dollar rally but I think metals will still rally in the face of it. The USDx means nothing, as it only is a measure against other fiat currency competition. Gold and Silver is a movement away from all of these dying currencies.

    Looking at forex Eur/Usd it looks like the Euro is in for a sell-off (56% of the dollar index composition) and the news that is going on with Greece, Ireland, and Portugal can surely trigger new problems (appearing on zerohedge). And I am sure Spain can get wacky soon enough. I feel bad for the people of Europe. Countries like Germany got owned, and now face an economic prison. At least we got some wealth affect over here, they have been in a mess ever since it started it seems.

    http://thehardrightedge.com/the-dollar-index/us-dollar-index-weights/

    All western banks are owned by the same people. The historic families that have controlled America have equal and more powerful families in the European continents. This is not a single country problem... this is much bigger.

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  25. Mike, not any time soon, that's for sure.

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  26. Ahhhhhhhhhh! I'm getting paranoid. Now that I've held on to this bullion how do I know far enough ahead WHEN to exit????

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  27. You do not exit bullion - that stuff is for keeps.

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  28. Added your three additions to the sheet and erg from the last thread.

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  29. Man, I was so glad I dipped into my cash reserve to buy a bit more Silver at 42. I love it when it lands on my door step worth more than when I paid for it ;)

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  30. Sorry guys,

    There is the only dip you're going to be able to buy this week. I hope you prepare accordingly.

    http://i42.tinypic.com/1z1bwj8.gif

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  31. when you see the economy doing well and jobs come back or the silver gold ratio goes to 20-1
    otherwise, keep stacking.

    Dont get nervous about dips and corrections ,they're temporary, they are going to happen its the way the game is played.

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  32. Seems like writing has been on the wall for several years, in the shadows anyway. Just remembering all the record Bonus's CEOs were making that were being reported in MSM few years back... Then, when gas price went crazy MSM reports EXXON MOBILE had record profit year ever? THEN we hear about GE comp. not having to pay any taxes this year? if these statements are true, than it would appear a case of Big Business being ahead of the curve seeking MAX profit w/ no regard for fallout.

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  33. ALCON:

    My take... This is Holy Week, consider the religious/historical purpose of silver, long ago.
    40 pieces is what Judas felt our Saviors' life was worth, I submit that Ag goes to $40 then ASCENDS in biblical proportions, as it should. Symbolic-perhaps-possible-guaranteed, listen to the Heavens, put your stops in now. COL Turdite! God Bless America...

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  34. Most of you probably already know, but there is an article on Bloomberg about the University of Texas taking delivery of gold.

    I just wanted to emphasize a sentence:
    "Open interest in gold futures and options traded on the Comex typically exceeds supplies held in its warehouses. If the holders of just 5 percent of those contracts opted to take delivery of the metal, there wouldn’t be enough to cover the demand, Bass said."

    This is from BLOOMBERG!

    This Comex default story and people taking delivery is going into the mainstream.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-15/texas-university-endowment-holds-almost-1-billion-in-gold-bars.html

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  35. XTY,

    "You do not exit bullion - that stuff is for keeps."

    I disagree. Although I will say that my bullion has outperformed my stocks over the last year - or at least is far more consistent in its security and return.

    XTY - I hope you are correct. I hope the world will wake up and adopt gold and silver as currency once more but at this stage in the game it is to early to see what the outcome will be.

    If we are being honest with ourselves we have to admit that there is no crystal ball to tell the future. Every day we must watch the fundamentals and base our decisions on these.

    It is not wise to marry ourselves to any asset or investment. Right now silver is hot (and volatile) and for the time being is a great investment for most of us. it is a hedge against government and banker insanity. But the powers that be may have other plans - or they may not. The people may choose through the market itself and overwhelm paper making it irrelevant and silver/gold defacto currency. We simply cannot be 100% sure what will happen.

    What if the government passes a law making it illegal to own gold and silver bullion? Then what?

    My motto is simple - hope for the best but prepare for the worst. Silver is a one day at a time one hour at a time moment by moment investment/hedge.

    Watch the fundamentals. Make your decisions based on what is best for you and your family and don't worry about what everyone else is doing. Think for yourself.

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  36. Apples,
    With a name like Apples, I thought you would link us to some caramel dip. Apples and bean dip?!? Not even hungry for canned bacon now...

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  37. Swampfox - I beg to differ and this is why. On my husband's side of the family there once was considerable wealth. It was stored in cash/traditional investments and land. But the land got diluted through inheritance, and the cash/investments were passed down in trusts, managed by a major Canadian bank. Suffice it to say, that when interest rates were 20% in 1980 (or 81?) they managed to make 3%. Then they pay themselves to manage it. And every year they send a letter you are meant to sign saying you agree with their decisions. So that has dwindled and caused heart-ache through the decades. And what our ancestors imagined their legacy to be we jokingly refer to as 'the chicken dinner.' So my hope is that the physical I acquire will be my children's inheritance. The more the merrier. And if the government makes it illegal then fuck them.

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  38. Bro D - believe it or not, someone earlier claimed to have eaten apple smoked bacon bit chocolate, and that it was the best.

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  39. swampfox,
    XTY is right. Whoever is holding gold and silver when the dollar collapses wins. They cannot outlaw gold and silver coins because that is the only currency mandated in the first place!
    The only fundamental I have to watch is Congress' and the Fed's reckless disregard for economic stability. All their jabber to raise interest rates if necessary or to cut 38 billion of a 1+ Trillion dollar deficit is absolutely meaningless.
    Talk is cheap. Until I see some real action on the part of those clowns, I will continue to prepare for the destruction they are wreaking quickly upon us.

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  40. I won't BTFD yet. Last time I bought (physical) was around the day before Turd's bottom. Last time before that was about a year earlier (@$15.00-ish). I can tell when it is time to BTFD when there is little or no inventory. There is plenty of inventory at these prices. The time to buy is when you can't get any. (Yes this is a koan.)

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  41. Wolf ranch

    On exiting bullion: here is a link to a video that was helpful to me

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElZgkujrtOA

    He says, don't sell it, spend it.

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  42. Xty said...
    "lh - I think Catseyenu was being sarcastic - i.e. time to sell if Cramer is recommending it (NOT that you should sell - man do we need a joke symbol?)"

    This^

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  43. Aloha All,

    Today, April 17th, is the 50th anniversary of the Bay of Pigs fiasco. I happened to be born that day in 1961, so I'm 50 now too. That is why I use this handle, and not because I have any love for Cuba, Communism or Castro. ;o)

    Thanks to Turd and all of you who make this site a great place to learn, share ideas and hang out.

    Off to my party at the Red Bar on the Wailea Golf Club.

    Best wishes and good luck to everyone as we forge ahead,
    Bay of Pigs

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  44. From the earlier posting:

    vamoose said...

    "My concern is the potential drift towards confiscation because these criminals are desperate. . It has happened with Gold in 1933.Bang, there you go."

    Much like the chances of a terrorist taking control of a commercial airliner and hoping the sheep will allow themselves to be led to slaughter, it ain't happening.
    Fool me once shame on you, try it again and you'll have your ass handed to you.

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  45. Xty,
    That sounds good, but not but I wouldn't want it with bean dip.

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  46. @xty: I am not going to exit bullion. I am going to leave each of my children a number of silver and gold pieces, and for each bit of metal, a written thought about my fondest memories of them. I think I know which they will value more.

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  47. ...the bacon, that is, not the "chicken dinner."

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  48. bay - Happy Birthday - enjoy your night out. You are only half way to a hundred - lots of stuff still to do!

    Happy - that is what I mean about saving swearing for when you need it.

    Bro. D - "XTY is right." I love you, man.

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  49. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Maps/10/140_35.php


    and watch the level of activity around Westrn part of Mount Fuji --- 80k from Tokyo....

    Will Mt. Fuji volcano erupt?

    could effect 60% of Industrial area of Japan

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  50. Jimmy...I have no preconceived entry point at this moment. It depends on the flow of things as it goes along. The entry point is your perception of what you expect to happen given where we are at in a certain time period.
    It's hard to explain for me as we all have our own view of how this will proceed and how confident you are in silver and the strength of the market at the time your considering it.

    I could mention low $42's right now for example and if it goes up tonight to $43.50 or so then that kind of blows my made up number out of the water, unless a raid happens first thing in the a.m. and $42 looks reachable.
    Things are happening so fast and you have to make a judgement even faster and jump on it when you think it's right.
    If your talking about buying physical for example, I could care less about a $1 or $2 as I think that will be peanuts after awhile and I'm not going to be penny wise and pound foolish over a buck or two when it's going much higher in the end.
    Any bit of news could just blow any low number I'm trying to wait on and then your kind of stuck by waiting.
    Personally, I'm not waiting on any particular low preset number. I'll just strike when the whole situation looks like an opportunity.
    Like TF said, If $40ish should happen then my eyes might bug out a bit and I would definitely not wait. Chances are I would already be in at $41 something if that opportunity presented itself. Just depends on the flow up to the moment of entry in my case.

    None of that might make sense. I look at the U$D, gold, crude, the news, what the PM charts are doing that a.m. or whenever. A feel for all of those combined is what I'm getting at.
    I watch the silver and gold charts all day like most people here and watch the pattern of sells and buys and just try to gauge it.
    I won't penny pinch. It is going higher inevitibly no matter what.

    If it gets raided and hammered all day tomorrow I might just get in at the very end of the day at who knows what price anticipating that the next day or shortly thereafter it will rise again dramatically.
    I'm not counting on that to happen at all. Quite the opposite.
    What happens tonight and what happens once the NY market opens is key to see how the EE might proceed and how active they are.
    It's a gut thing, listen to it and live with your entry point and know silver or gold will go higher, maybe just not instantly and constantly but that it will go up.

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  51. Xty said...

    "Catseyenu - good one."

    "Let's roll!" ;-)

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  52. XTY...Nice call on the war bond observation earlier and our allies currency diving a bit while ours went up a bit.
    I do think thats what is taking place. They are paying for our muscle and thats why were half heartedly into Libya. Just doing it for the money.

    BTW...Anyone catch that ZH article on the NATO allies running low on ammo? WTF is that all about? Nothing like telling your enemies (Iran) your unprepared ond low on ammo. I don't mean ZH, I meant our allies even letting it be known they are unprepared. How could they not have enough ammunition? It's not like they have been in any real combat or war situations where they were drained down for some reason.
    There is alot of things regarding Libya and the way NATO is going about this that make absolutely no sense at all, especially from a strategic viewpoint. A total projection of weakness and indecisiveness.
    Could it be that NATO is that weak in alot of ways? Good thing that there is not any other major world power who could actually take advantage of this void.
    Could you imagine if this happened in the mid 1950- or 60's when the USSR was aggressive and capable? The Warsaw pact would have been drooling for this moment. I wonder what China is thinking about this?

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  53. Don - That is a really great idea. Writing on paper is a bit of a lost art, and children don't remember when they were little - they will treasure those memories for sure. I think I will steal your idea.

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  54. China waits patiently. They need time to get out of their US holdings, and are probably in cahoots with Iran in all sorts of ways. Iran waits too. It is awful. Nato is ineffectual and hopeless. I think that as an organization they stopped being about strategic alliance and started being about equal opportunity hiring and diversity in the work place. They have no idea how to conduct a war to win. It is not so much evil as inept I think. And the US just bleeds money. So I think China is basically laughing all the way to the bank.

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  55. Bro D. and XTY,

    I hope you are both right. As for "fk" the government - well - nobody knows that sentiment better than I do. Trust me. But the reality is whithout popular sentiment backing you up (say at the very minimum of 5 to 10% of the population)the government will always have the last say. Living in violation of their eddicts when the rest of the country does not care will relegate you to the koo koo bin. This is not to say you are nuts - I agree with your sentiment but I am also a realist. 200 people on a Blog does not make a revolution.

    So that being the case here is a question for you. It has to do with value.

    If gold and silver are mediums of exchange because they "hold value" then what is "value" and what does it represent?

    The reason I ask this is because it is central to the idea of holding any single investment over all else.

    Shouldn't the purpose of holding any asset be to get the best bang for your buck? The best value for your effort? Isn't that what value is? The embodiment of your labour in something tangible to be exchanged at a later date for another item or someone else's labor?

    The reason I am asking this question is simple - if the rest of the world does not see gold or silver as money and the value eventually depreciates wouldn't you at that time be better off moving your store of labor to another asset that others will see as having value?

    For what its worth I am just playing devils advocate here. I personally believe that the days of fiat are coming to an end - slowly but surely. And rightfully so.

    BUT we cannot forsee the future and if things were to change (the gov't exercises austerity, shrinks the money supply allows for realistic interest rates etc) then wouldn't you be better off moving your labour back into cash?

    As unlikely as this scenrio might seem right now I still think it is unwise to say I will "never sell".

    I value my labour far too much to be that dogmatic. If gold and silver are the superior store then that is where it will stay. If it is not then I will move it. Above all else the most valuable commodity know to man is his time. It's the only thing I wish I had more of.

    Food for thought.

    Swampy.

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  56. Speaking of leaving our kids some gold or silver, I've already started. Each Christmas for the past few years, I've given each of them a small (.25oz ish) gold coin, and a variety of silver. They each have an attractive little wooden box they keep it in. And they always get a little speech about security (can't be showing it off to friends, can't take it to college dorm room, etc.)

    I'll probably stop for a while now. The point has been made. It's still small enough that they don't really have to start having the same worries about storage that I have, but it's big enough that (hopefully) they'll begin to take an interest in the historical aspects of some of the coins and also appreciate the increases in value.

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  57. catsey,

    perhaps your memory fails you, there was a small event now called 9 11 where precusely what you deny occurred. Go kiss your own ass, you are so brainwashed like this board of self congratulatory zombies, you guys will march yourself into the poorhouse by ignoring the time tested rules of elementary prudence.

    parabolic blowoffs never end well. There has never been one in recorded market history. manage your money bud.

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  58. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  59. Who sold that much gold at one time to UT?

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  60. Gotta love these "Hitler on.. " sketches. Very funny and gets you in the right mindset for the week to come.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I0mhX9hpq3g

    :)

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  61. And do I have an axe? I have no axe, I am materially reducing into the parabola thats all. I have seen this kind of groupthink too goddamned often. manage your money thats all. no axe, no ideology other than paralyzingly obvious common sense. common sense.

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  62. SwampFox...
    I'll cash in my PM's (not all) only if it gets to the point where things got so bad and that time period seems to have subsided and some sort of recognized new currency sytem is in place and it seems like it is going to be globally accepted.
    For example, if gold goes to $50,000K or whatever and the world or the US goes to a PM currency standard then I would sell IF the worst has subsided and it seems it's all clear to do so.
    I'm not banking on that happening, literally.
    The value, as you have already answered it, is what I can use it for to buy the things essential in life. Just like yourself, I don't see anything being more valuable then PM's at this point in history. They can print zillion dollar bills and make everyone feel pschologically wealthy but Bread will cost a million at that point.

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  63. SilverRunNW: a pip is 1/100 of a penny.

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  64. Those of us claiming that gold and silver should become currency need to pay attention to what Martin Armstrong says: "Unfortunately, those crying for a gold standard are just barking up the wrong tree. Gold is the hedge against government. It is NOT what money is, but who controls its supply that is the real issue. Even if we got rid of paper money, we are still left with politicians who will return to debasement or weight reductions. It is the government that must be tempered and
    controlled. Not what is money or not."

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  65. Its the movement in currency trading usually 0.001. I have no idea what it is for silver spot and how to calculate profit and loss with it and leverage

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  66. Thanks DD. Learn something new everyday. So is there really a way to trade silver with 200:1 leverage?

    I'm not quite sure what doc meant by his post "$19,180.70 ZWD", but I've got 10 really cool Zimbabwe 100 Trillion dollar notes I'd be willing to part with if any spewing troll is willing to part with any of his precious metals.

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  67. Look , even a routine correction of a parabolic blowoff is 30 percent, and generally far more, including complete retracement, which would be 17 kiddies. Thats where it started.

    I would not touch silver here with Blythe Masters money, well perhaps on second thought i would. Just for the sheer pleasure of fucking her.

    nature abhors a vacuum. She also, on the evidence, abhors parabolic blowoffs. there is an elementary rule, stay the fuck away, let it crash, let it base, then revisit the issue.

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  68. @xty

    IRT your earlier question abut my avatar:

    The silver eagle represents the freedom gained by owning physical silver,
    the silver shield the protection it gives you and your family,
    and the gold anchors - well, that gold is the anchor, I guess.

    Oh, and it's also the US Navy officer crest. ;)

    oldNavy, out.

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  69. One last thought. I'm really starting to wonder why the new $100 bills are not out in circulation yet. Anybody else wondering or have any news on that? They are way overdue. I've been asking at the bank and they say the same thing.... "We should have had them by now."

    The mint says they are having printing press problems etc. Really??? Now we can't even print money? Doesn't sound like they are having any problems printing $50, 20's 10's etc.

    Could they actually be considering adding a zero to some of those new bills in anticipation of something that may happen? Or just holding off in case they have to?
    Maybe thats crazy talk and the new $100's come out tomorrow, but it seems a bit suspicious to me they all of the sudden are having problem printing a certain denomination.

    When the penny is taken away and when the first talk surfaces about a $500 or $1000 bill is mentioned , you'll know were in really deep S#@!

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  70. I just put $53 US into the calculator for ZWD and that's what it came up with.

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  71. Vamoose,

    Dude. I think you're being ignored. You need to turn off the rant mode. Everyone here is an adult and if we crash and burn its our problem - not yours.

    I'll make you a deal. You act like a human being instead of a ranting fool and if silver drops 30 points in the next month I'll buy you a nice yellow hat.

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  72. Catseye...please don't bite on the bait

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  73. Swampfox - here's where we differ. You ask:

    "The reason I am asking this question is simple - if the rest of the world does not see gold or silver as money and the value eventually depreciates...?"

    The rest of the world, and all of recorded history shows silver and gold holding 'value' better than anything else. So I agree with your definition of value in this sense, the ability to exchange it for something I want. But I think nothing has ever or will ever beat the precious metals as a holder of value. And let me ask you this, it suddenly occurs to me, wouldn't you like to inherit precious metals and jewelry rather than stocks and bonds and worthless trusts? Leaving money in the bank or a trust account or some such relies on a view that the world is fairly consistent and unchanging. But that is not our experience - history is full of upheaval and change, and mostly for the good I would argue. But gold was valuable to romans and mediaeval kings and pirates and people today. Can't be beat.

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  74. One last post.

    @Vamoose

    You are right, the correction at this point should be 30%+, but that's just what should have happened in JAN and we only got a 15% downturn and it didn't last very long. I'm not sure this market cares much about technical rules at this point. Not totally sure it doesn't either, though.

    I'm listening to Turd, and watching my back.

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  75. Swampy,

    Story of my life. Ok dude? The hats on credit rite?

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  76. Are you still taking guesses. My guess is $44.93

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  77. DPH - ah, so trying keeping one's axe sheathed. But so we should and must. We have our marching orders.

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  78. @David: Welcome to Turd's world!

    Firstly, I wouldn't advise posting your email addy on here.

    Secondly, from your question it seems like you're a noob in leveraged or margin trading. I would STRONGLY advise against such over-leveraging (200:1)...unless you don't mind paying costly 'university' fees to the market.

    Third, based on the assumption that you're a trading noob, I would advise you start with XAU rather than XAG. It takes much of the volatility out of the equation whilst giving you time to 'learn-the-ropes'.

    Take care.

    ReplyDelete
  79. I just did a nice long evening workout lifting silver bars and bags of junk silver. Four sets of bicep curls. Four sets of triceps. Four sets of shoulder lifts.

    Damn heavy silver feels good.

    ReplyDelete
  80. $43.30 - 30 cents in 5 1/2 hours. 24 hours a day. Just sayin'.

    ReplyDelete
  81. Nice to find a post by TF with less than 100 comments (easily reading them helps me feel like I'm keeping up). Problem is I have not had time to watch the market much or read any comments since last Wednesday.

    DPH are you still holding the SLW you bought recently? I'm guessing you would want more on a dip. I'm wondering if SLW might make a more major pullback before heading higher unless it's recent under performance was related to OEX last week. I always appreciate hearing your thoughts.

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  82. buff daddy, Judas betrayed Jesus for 30 pieces of silver (not 40). If the price of silver marks that price by Easter, I'll skip church to BUFD like there's no tomorrow!

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  83. @ JoeKa
    Ive been trading futures contracts at 18:1 or so, and I don't mind volatility. I have plenty of cash to work with, and I just want a crash course on the silver spot market. I would just start low to mess around like 500 bux or so. I don't mind losing it. I have been a firm believer in this market due to the fundamentals. The dollar has no hope for survival, and I've studied quite a bit about Austrian economics. Ron Paul is also my hero! If could just get an explanation of how it all worked, I would appreciate it.

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  84. Vamoose can you account for your blown call last week? It seems that you have had expectations of the future that didn't materialize.

    For instance:
    Is the policy shift delayed? Ineffective? Is there a new shift?

    Until then I'm reading your posts but no energy to respond.

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  85. Something is up - look at gold! - and silver 6 cents in 5 minutes.

    ReplyDelete
  86. XTY said...
    Jimmy - gonna get cranky on you here - the questions you ask are answered in Turd's post. He gives you support levels and an ultimate bottom - when he talks about backing up the truck you know he thinks that is a bottom. I'm coming down on you just because this happens a lot it seems to me - especially from people asking questions that imply you are expecting a major drop.


    ------------------------

    And you're the boss of this place now, xty? Your behaviour is becoming rather presumptuous, don't you agree?

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  87. Swampy,
    I spent twenty minutes working up a response, but found out Xty and DPH responded better than I would have.
    The only thing I would add is I don't have an emotional tie to the metals (except for the silver dollar my grandfather gave me). It's mostly a logical response to a great Keynesian fiasco coming to a town near us soon.

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  88. XTY...Yep, your so right. We'll be hearing it even more when it hits $50, 60, 70 etc.
    Out of the woodwork they will come.
    Maybe the torando's blew some out from under the bridge's.

    ReplyDelete
  89. @David: Ok it's your money.

    Could you list your questions so that I and perhaps later Pailin (and others trading margin accounts)can answer?

    FYI, I've been daytrading XAG for some time now and even with my tolerance for volatility, set leverage to 10:1 only. I also cut my teeth on trading XAU first to understand certain price dynamics. Different strokes for different folks I guess.

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  90. @Timer: Are you on the blog?

    Would be grateful if you could update us on this sub-cycle which you're tracking.

    Looking forward to seeing your post! :)

    ReplyDelete
  91. Hi XTY,

    You said:

    "The rest of the world, and all of recorded history shows silver and gold holding 'value' better than anything else. So I agree with your definition of value in this sense, the ability to exchange it for something I want. But I think nothing has ever or will ever beat the precious metals as a holder of value. And let me ask you this, it suddenly occurs to me, wouldn't you like to inherit precious metals and jewelry rather than stocks and bonds and worthless trusts? Leaving money in the bank or a trust account or some such relies on a view that the world is fairly consistent and unchanging. But that is not our experience - history is full of upheaval and change, and mostly for the good I would argue. But gold was valuable to romans and mediaeval kings and pirates and people today. Can't be beat."

    Well, I would agree if you look at history over thousands of years this has certainly been the trend. But in terms of more micropscopic time lines this has not necessarily been true. My own life time is a good example. I am 38 - I have never known a gold standard and if my grandfather had put gold away for me to be used in my younger days it might not have been a much better investment than some stocks. In fact I wish my folks had bought me a few hundred shares in Apple when I was born.

    From the perspective of one or two lifetimes what holds value is not always the same. Gold and silver win out over recorded history but our lives do not spand periods of thousands of years. In my life time there have been investments that trumped silver and gold.

    Silver and gold as you speak of them become more valuable over multiple generations. This short period in time may be the exception in my life time to this rule. I hope it is. But because of the political/global nature of our world and because of the massive amount of power that our governments and elites hold I am not prepared to accept anything as inevitable.

    The old saying - if it seems to good to be true it probably is - looms heavily in the back of mind. I have been poor and know what it is like to live with very little. My skepticism/caution is a result of this personal history.

    At this stage all I can do is wait, listen, watch and see.

    I have no faith in anything as a "sure thing". The only thing I have any degree of faith in is my own rational nature, the existance of God, my own impending end.... and some days I'm not so sure about my rational nature...

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  92. Awful,

    Do you know what RTFM stands for. The M is for the memo at the beginning of this whole blog post.

    ReplyDelete
  93. Fair comment mr woods. dead wrong. I Admit it. Its somewhat early days though.

    This is the thing about exponential blowoffs, its virtually futile to pick tops, if you were to get within ten percent of one, that would be pretty good. Because the momentum is inherently unpredictable.

    So its frankly pretty arrogant to try and nail it to a T. I missed , my bad. Give me 30 days.

    Could we kiss 50? suppose so. 12 percent from here. My point is that the price be it 43 or 50, is wickedly unstable, but your criticism is fair. Picking tops is a fools game, particularly in parabolas. My bad.

    I dont suppose it might occur to anybody that i was trying to be constructively helpful would it?

    Whether or not to INVEST in them is a different matter entirely. One stays away.

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  94. How do you calculate profit on XAU, and how do pips work? Which companies are the most reliable and have the least commissions?

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  95. Hey Stephen..Still holding the SLW and adding to it tomorrow at some point probably.
    Trader Dan has a chart on it at his site and he talks about the other miners lack of performance relative to the PM run up recently.

    I'm confident about it's snapback and a entry of $2.10 to $2.25 is looking good to me. If we get a EE sustained raid tomorrow maybe even closer to $2.00 or under if I'm lucky. Not counting on that but you never know. I also need to re-establish my GG position soon. I think I entered at $.48 last time and just sold at $.62 on Friday for a quick $$$.

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  96. Gimme a break, xty, ( and a few others ), xty you're a nice person I'm sure and don't take this the wrong way but are you really going to bust someone's chops for asking a question because it might "imply you are expecting a major drop"? Is everyone in this blog the thought police now? Good grief I've asked questions before about how deep a dip could get too. Does that make me a bear trying to scare you out of your position?

    Get over yourself, people, there is nothing wrong with having an opinion or asking a question. Stop being so paranoid. What is the point of having a blog if dissenting opinion is never allowed? Or do you all just want to sit and circle jerk each other all day long.

    PS - I try to post when I have something useful to say. I don't need to fill up 15% of every thread with my comments to feel successful. I don't need to waste 5% of the posts on a thread with Internet High-Fives.

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  97. RoCoach,

    Great quote.

    I am an anarcho-capitalist philosophically.

    The problem we have is that the government is involved at all in the money business. Seperate the two and you take away 50% of their power. Ban them from owning guns and you take away the other 50%.

    No money, no guns in the hands of politicians, no problems.

    ReplyDelete
  98. @SilverRunNw

    Oh, my bad, I must have missed the part where xty was made moderator of the blog. I'll read it again.

    ReplyDelete
  99. @ Old Swift Boat Vet
    Thanks for sharing. It means a lot.

    @ Xty and Eric
    Are we counting married years? 19 here

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  100. I've lived through parabolic rises before, and I believe we're just getting started.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CSCO+Basic+Chart&t=my

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  101. Vamoose. Totally understand that groupthink can eat the group alive.

    FWIW your posts didn't come across as helpful. Given silver was having a bad day they came across as "you fools, the jig is up and sell now or face your deserved doom". There wasn't much respect evident.

    Stay out if you like and point out that 30% corrections are possible - I think everyone should have that in mind as each considers personal risk tolerance. Recommend finding a constructive sytle of communication.

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  102. SwampFx...There is a lot of truth to what you say and how you feel.

    What I see happening and what I'm hearing for the most part, myself included, is that watching silver and gold make this run is abit unsettling and makes us all a bit unsure because it's a bad sign and indication things around us are going to hell.
    That saying that looms in your mind, mine also, seems to be the unease about how bad things are and how high can this all really go?
    I'm only 48 and I don't rememeber the 1980's gold/silver spike playing out. Too much partying in high school. How did I not even know that was taking place?

    Nothing is for sure like you said. You and I and all of us here are living through something extraordinary and sad and scary at the same time.
    I read on here or somewhere that most investors never make it to the end of a PM bull run because it's so unnerving.
    That may be the answer to the questions your posing.
    I'm right there with you but I'm not letting this bull run by me this time unnoticed or uninvolved. I'm getting on it's back and it's going to have to throw me off.

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  103. Both vamoose and Awful use the term [my bad] I have not come across this before. What does this mean?

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  104. May you have a most pleasant week ahead, Mr. Ferguson!

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  105. Awful,

    You seem to have a level tempered disposition. That's refreshing.

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  106. Swampy,
    I appreciate your younger perspective, so here's what I'll do. If the fundamental I mentioned changes and I even consider selling bullion coins, I'll send you a couple of the ASE's.
    Hey, if that fundamental changes, I may just give it all away and celebrate!
    You said that you hoped we were right. Truth is - we wish we would be proven wrong.

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  107. I sold off a bit of silver and got a few things I needed. I'm hoping for a dip but I'm planning for $40.00 plus in silver. Still buying, I'll just end up with less oz. Darn and shucks and other words,.

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  108. DarkPurpleHaze,
    Roger that.
    Didn't realize I'd gotten a hold of "one of those".

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  109. Where's Hansi and EA when you really need someone to flog!

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  110. Oh super, another midnight post by Blythe. Guess I need to stay up and watch the am hours :(

    Can't stop checking TF Metals Report every 1 or 2 hours. Can we start up a group for Turds Anonymous?

    ReplyDelete
  111. XTY said: when he talks about backing up the truck you know he thinks that is a bottom.
    ---
    Well.. no. English is not my native language. But thanks for clearing that up. I will back up my loading vehicle at the appropriate time.

    ReplyDelete
  112. doc [my bad] means roughly [my mistake] and often infers that there is no doubt about it.

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  113. I actually come here to escape groupthink. A blog which is dedicated to PM isn't exactly the place to call out sheeple. What are we, .05% of the population? Now, within our PM world we have our own subgroups of daytraders, swingtraders and buy/hold types. The overarching philosophy is the same, just different styles.

    I enjoy all inputs bear/bull and trade/hold. I just don't think the way to win over an audience is by first insulting them. Unless you are a cigar smoking, sock-puppet dog, for me to Turd on! ;)

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  114. Blythe I'm going to need a little more clarification on your definition of "pleasant", please?

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  115. David said...
    How do you calculate profit on XAU, and how do pips work? Which companies are the most reliable and have the least commissions?

    @David: interesting question. I never did actually go into the mechanics myself...as long as I made decent profit! :)

    We know that PIP aka Percentage in Point, or the smallest increment on price. My provider rounds the PIP to 2 decimal places and offers a PIP spread of 4, e.g. SELL at 43.00, BUY at 43.04. Sometimes during non-volatile / low volume periods that increases to a 5 PIP spread. As far as platforms go, this spread differential is pretty decent, seeing how they also don't charge a commission for XAG or XAU trades. The only other charge is the swap rates for overnight positions, which are also very low.

    Babypips school gives an excellent primer into this and more. www.babypips.com/school/

    As for provider, I use FXPRO. Some others on here use Oanda, Forex.com, etc. For me the clincer is the speed of execution, PIP spread, commissions, ease of funds transfer and the use of MetaTrader 4 trading platform.

    All the best!

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  116. She won't answer you, Pablo, she does a drive-by with her cryptic messages and leaves us to sort out the meaning.

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  117. Apparently the seagulls are out so I'll call it a night.

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  118. There it was ...... I hope you BTFD!!!

    Overnite FUBM ..... sweet!

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  119. PrizeFighter...lol, good stuff.

    Watching a Nat Geo special on the Japan earthquake. Unreal.

    Goodnite all, Lunesta kicking in quick. Zzzz!

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  120. JoeKA,

    Thanks for that explanation. My eTrade account actually lets you trade futures and uses the MetaTrader 4 platform. Not sure how many decimal places they go out, but they do require $10k to get this option on your account. They also have a decent online tutorial do show you the basics of using the platform. Sure looks powerful. Unfortunalely, there trades are $2.99.

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  121. We'll probably see a dip around 3:30am to 4:00 am eastern, when London opens or shortly before/after, this may be the dip of the week (lol). And ff the EE decides to accelerate it, look out if they go through $42.50 because I think Turd is right and there are a lot of stops set there or around $42.75 perhaps. I don't think we'd make it to $40.50, no way, no how, unless all hell breaks loose someplace. But the boss is right, if we see $40.50 you better load up the el camino cuz that turkey ain't coming around again.

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  122. Thanks DPH. I saw Trader Dan's charts that included SLW earlier and I just noticed a new post where Dan says he made an error and mixed up the GDX GDXJ ratio and it's actually the large caps that are underperforming. So that would seem to say the SLW is underperforming rather than being the exception that was performing well according to his original post.

    When you talk about $2 to $2.25 entries what month and strike are you watching?

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  123. If so, it would probably be better than Lunesta...but I might be wrong!

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  124. Always with the disgusting imagery too - deficient imaginations.

    Irene - yes - there seem to be a number of us lifetimers.

    DPH and Swampfox - it is because of the uncertainties of our times that I look to the long lasting worth of gold. And Swampy I am thinking generations down. That is why I told the story of my husband's family. Obviously I agree that an unforeseen time could come when it would be a good idea to sell physical bullion, but it isn't now! I think we understand each other - we just have different timeframes in mind.

    And yes, I am a megalomaniac so just get used to it.

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  125. DPH,

    True about being proven wrong. It's all about a moment of perpsective eh?

    Have a good night.

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  126. @Pablo: I second that forecast. Am trimming off my $42 range buys shortly to wait for the 'dip' of it comes.

    Core remain intact.

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  127. @ JoeKa
    How much profit is there per pip in silver?

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  128. XTY,

    I never called you a megalomaniac. A little bit like my mom maybe... but not a megalomaniac. :-)

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  129. Awful said: "PS - I try to post when I have something useful to say."

    Me too. God, I miss the early days of this blog when the signal to noise ratio in the comments section was much higher. It's time consuming to weed out all of the useless banter and reciprocal stroking that goes into the comments these days.

    Turd, when you build the new site, please, please, pretty please consider the following:

    1. A social forum where people can prattle on with all non-silver related posts.

    2. The ability to people people on "Ignore". This will be useful for dealing with trolls and posters who are all noise and no signal.

    For the relative newcomers who are new to this blog: You have no idea how good this site used to be in the days when we used to see maybe 40 to 50 comments per post, the majority of which were insightful and worth reading. Please folks, try to stay focused with your comments. Thousands of readers will thank you for it, and believe it or not, you'll gain far more insight and learning from this community.

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  130. Nothing turns people off of an online discussion board faster than someone who thinks they own the place just because they post prolifically 24/7. Turd is trying to get more visitors, not drive people away. And stunts like xty pulled earlier, drive people away.

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  131. I am new at trading silver miners w 8 in/out trades over past 2 weeks. I am amazed at volatility and contrary behavior of silver miners relative to physical.

    From posts here, I understand there is consistent negative pressure on silver miners from hedge funds and ETFs as they use silver miners to hedge physical silver price increase. Bolivian nationalization of PMs was a wild card though prob not unexpected given PMs increase.

    I have no idea what to expect next week for silver miners. Physical silver appears up and away. After the last week of silver miner declines, would expect some lift, esp now that it is becoming clearer what is targeted (and what is not) Bolivian nationalization.

    At minimum there may be that opening jump w raids at 10 or 11 am. Two weeks ago, there was gentle lift throughout day. Last week it was gentle decline throughout day. Wow.

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  132. @JoeKa

    Yes I am adjusting my stops and going to bed. I don't want to get shaken out if we see a $1 to $1.50 dip. I may place some if-thens just in case. Either way I will be able sleep soundly knowing that I won't wake up to a disaster in my portfolio :)

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  133. @David: that would really depend on the leverage you took. So 200:1 would amplify profits (or losses) in each PIP direction.

    At 10:1, each PIP (i.e. 0.01) above my break-even gains me about $25 approx I believe.

    As a matter for your own calculation, I list here a buy I did last week so that you can gauge the profit levels at 10:1.

    Bought: $42.61
    Size: 0.40 (i.e. 400 contracts on 10:1)
    Price now: $43.20
    Profit: $1,180

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  134. Stephen...SLW Jan 12 $65 call
    Goodnite!

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  135. Woods

    I think your criticisms lie primarily in the fact that we disagree, and its convenient to personalize it.

    Fine, as you see fit.

    If they were to abdicate invoking QE3 , then a policy shift would involve crushing commodities.
    Well Dr. Copper, several Ags... there are signs of this underway.

    We have our charming friends at Goldman calling for a short term retracement in commods generally, which only happened Friday, and it raises my already extended hackles.

    There will be those on this board who recall, 2008, to 2009, ,,, jesus, a fricking nightmare.

    A reasonable proxy, the TSX Venture Exchange disappeared 72 percent. From top to bottom and frighteningly fast. But there aare non resource things in this index, even big gold and silver stocks took a 90 percent kiss. Go back and look at the charts and marvel.

    Some of this was this charming term that has entered the language "derisking" ... these propellor head teenagers unwinding algorithms.

    I do not know what an algo is, and i could give a flying. I do addition, subtraction, multiplication and division.

    But crushing commods might prove propitious here, yet again, because these long Treasury rates MUST HOLD. They MUST HOLD. Other wise its the stone age, 45 million Americans cannot feed themselves? WTF?

    So drop an overt QE3 extension then generate a good solid ersatz deflation, a junior 2008.

    Thats what I mean by a policy shift. There are no natural buyers for US T Bonds, in fact there is a wall of sellers led by China and now joined by Japan.

    The whole thing reeks of end game to me. I wish not to be there.

    For the record if it matters which it doesnt, i come from a silver family, nof many generations going back to my GG Grandfather whose work is collected today!! I love Silver.

    So i will get to a minimum position. One mans position.

    If wrong i eat it. And not for the first time. My cost was 7.80 though.


    You asked, thats my best answer.

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  136. @pablo: Yes agree. Sleeping soundly is important so that the mind is always clear to make decisions.

    Rest well as I keep the fires burning here in Asia.

    See ya on your AM! :)

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  137. SilverLeaf,
    well said. I have nothing novel to contribute today (apart from the FT story), so I've kept my mouth shut.

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  138. I leave you in the capable hands of Awful, who apparently has appointed itself in charge of posting tonight.

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  139. Hey Turdle! I thought you were on holidays mate since I didn't see a post from you. :)

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  140. Turd, I respect you greatly and have been here with you since the beginning. Please sir, you must put your foot down and ask everyone stop the inane off-topic banter, before your blog goes the way of ZH (which I presume you are intending to avoid). As SilverLeaf stated, there is a signal-to-noise ratio that is sustainable and above this level, the blog is no longer sustainable. Your new site is not due for 4-6 more weeks. Your current threads are pushing 250,400, soon it will be 500 posts per thread. Your current signal-to-noise ratio is approximately 71% signal, 29% noise (I am fantastic with statistics). Site metrics indicate you start to have problems at 25% noise and the blog becomes unsustainable at 50% noise.

    I hope you take my advice under serious consideration. This is the last I will comment on the matter.

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  141. @Xty: "itself"?

    Going a bit far much? :)

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  142. Turd:

    "Though I promise to devote this blog primarily to the discussion of gold & silver, on weekends I may post items that I have found interesting during the previous week. This is one such post. My rationale is that since many of us are diehard ZHers, we most likely share many of the same world views. Therefore, if I find something interesting, then you, my dear reader, may find it interesting, as well."

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  143. Silverleaf said,

    "Me too. God, I miss the early days of this blog when the signal to noise ratio in the comments section was much higher. It's time consuming to weed out all of the useless banter and reciprocal stroking that goes into the comments these days"

    Well - when Turd starts posting poetry for comment I think you can sort of expect things to go a bit sideways topic wise. Blogs evolve like that.

    For me - I like the prattle about things that are not just silver investing. And you are right - after a while it DOES start to sound like group think here. The new site would benefit from different sections for different discussions. In the mean time I guess we have to put up with each other.

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  144. SilverLeaf...I have been reading this blog since the first week in Dec. and I whole heartedly agree with your post re:12:29

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  145. Thanks a lot JoeKa good night

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  146. Oh xty, I like you, but I think you may perhaps be daft. I do believe the poster "Awful" is trying to save the board from posters such as yourself :)

    But you are too blind to see it, as the rest of us lurkers do :(

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  147. @SilverLeaf, @Awful

    Having been a member of this blog since early December I must concur with your observations. The increasing amount of groupthink and useless banter has created diminishing value for me in this blog. I rarely read through the comments anymore because I know they will be dominated primarily by a handful of members who quite often have nothing topical,relevant, or valuable to contribute. This is quite the shame. I appreciate your bringing this matter to light and hope it may help to rectify the situation.

    ReplyDelete
  148. Excuse my run on sentences and poor spelling of forms (not forums). There is not edit button, shows you how primitive this format is. I really need to learn to edit before posting, sorry!

    ReplyDelete
  149. Hey Scott- got anything topical, relevant and valuable to contribute?

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  150. 20 min. the longest time between posts on this entire thread.

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  151. Xty,

    Until you dropped the F-Bomb I had my doubts, but now I think you are ok.

    The rest of you, chill.

    There's all sorts in this bowl.

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  152. hey everyone. agree with some of the comments on relevant discussion. it's completely non-personal but imo it's now quite a big issue with over 400 posts on some threads.

    now here comes my own off-topic post! :)

    i imagine this has already been considered, but it'd be nice see an option on the new site for users to show their location and also age, if they wish. not that it's particularly important, but it'd be nice to get everyone's perspectives in as fuller context as possible.

    silver wise, $44.70 was my guess, i can see any dip coming over the next 2 days and another strong end to the week. the real question is miners, i'm sitting on an explorer where i want to see some action, but the sector as a whole lacks momentum and is patchy. also have a basic ETF position open and up considerably. want to see $45 before closing it and going in 2x for the next round. will probably avoid any miners for short-term positions if we fail to see much movement with silver over $44.

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  153. Re Comment Section (Take 2):

    I have been involved in a lot of internet communities, and I have seen it all when it comes to the maturation of an internet community (much like the maturation process of an human being).

    Undoubtedly there have been many more comments here lately, and to be honest I have not read every single one (even missing entire threads doing a quick search for my name to see if someone addressed me that I missed). However, I don't necessarily think the influx in comments and the extra-curricular (if precious metals is your focus) banter is a necessarily all that bad.

    I believe that this blog community has awakened to a consciousness concerning the fall of the great keynesian empire. This reality is not in 5 to 10 years, but in the next 2 years as the world-wide financial system is at the point of systemic chaos (especially the Federal Reserve Note and the Euro).

    This understanding is not one easy to deal with, and there are all sorts of personalities that have gathered on this blog. Some here are not as technical with forex xag/usd trading, but have other insight that is of value for others. The fact is, these are unprecedented times and as much spam occurs on this blogspot, there are gems within the spam.

    I always try to write with the understanding that there are a lot of other people reading the comment section, thus trying to provide things that may be helpful to a wider audience. However, not everyone is the same and I do not think it is fair to discriminate if the person is well intentioned.

    If you don't find value from someone's post, please don't take the time to add negative energy to the atmosphere. There will be things that frustrate you on this board, but such is life.

    Blah my first post was better...

    No edit button + deletions of posts = primative blogspot. This community needs an upgrade, and will struggle until it gets it. However, the content exists, but not in the same way it did.

    In closing,
    If you can help it, don't add negative energy towards people especially when it is unwarranted. There are a lot of fragile people and emotions amongst us, we must be sensitive to each one. It is not an easy task, and people will always complain.

    By now, haven't we learned how to tune out noise if you have gotten this far?
    -
    Scott

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  154. China just raised bank's reserve ratio requirements again this time by 50 basis points.

    www.moneycontrol.com/news/world-news/china-raises-bank-reserve-requirements_536570.html

    Should logically be a down day and the EE should use this opportunity to pile on when London and NY open. Asian markets are now trading down slightly after pushing AG as high as 43.33.

    Powder dry, ready to load!

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  155. Update on the reserve ratio hike.
    This now from Reuters. It's not expected to "dent prospects of a global economic recovery".

    www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/18/markets-global-idUSL3E7FI08U20110418

    Any dip is likely to be shallow and short-lived.

    To me, if anything, PMs should not be dipping at all given that every week there is acknowledgement of the grip of inflation worry from various countries.

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  156. RoCoach, that quote hit the nail on the head.

    "It is the government that must be tempered and
    controlled. Not what is money or not.""

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  157. Soooo HSBC (slv & sivr "custodian") is holding UT's au? Bass is Bear Stearns alum.UT got out of paper au to give phys to the paper queen? I wish I went to a better college so I could understand all this, and to think Brown was right across the street.

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  158. POSX strength is making silver vulnerable to big raid. IMHO

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  159. If those house wives of the bankers got risk free loans according to interview on MSNBC, then imagine JPmorgue has same privilege of risk free money do this too. It worked when people weren`t taking delivery. But game is changing. The comex default will happen IMO. Just a matter of time and pressure from people like us that see the truth. And the SLA, and BOS

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  160. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  161. POSX catching a good bid here.
    But how long will it last...?
    Despite this, PMs not getting sold off big.
    More to come later probably.

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  162. Just read my Hat Trick letter, Jim Willie says the same thing bout the HSBC deal.
    Hope you folks are gettin some sleep it's only 10 pm hst. Go sleep already!

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  163. Based on the previous 2 month pullbacks and following price break outs, I think we'll trade relatively flat for the next 2 days, w/ a break out starting by Wednesday.

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  164. My guess is with the long weekend coming up and all the shenanigans going on next week, we might see a major hit today and flatter week than many expected. I my take profits earlier than I planned.

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  165. Up late here on the west coast... the metals were kicking butt until London opens, then the typical silver beatdown attempt starts to occur. Gold is looking really strong.

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  166. Latest Marc Faber interview ;

    agrees with most of us that owning physical is
    very important , be your own central bank etc,
    but has a stark warning not to own physical in the U.S. http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=1886291685

    Ive been busy buying at auctions etc , had a lot
    of success with antique silver at spot or below.
    try to look in here regular but the site has grown so well its hard to catch up. regards to all , except trolls.

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  167. Marc Faber. Doctor Doom?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marc_Faber

    /Meh

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  168. This is starting to become a recurring pattern.

    Euro weakness in the morning leads to POSX strengthening, leads to PM's dropping down a little. After a few hours, traders again realize that the dollar is pretty much as weak, if not weaker, than the euro, and we get a bounce up in the EUR.USD, PM's spike upwards making good their earlier losses.

    On the other hand, I've got some analysts calling for a euro top, saying that EUR.USD will go down to about 1.42 before resuming its uptrend. If that turns out to be true this might be a good moment for a correction, but I doubt it seeing how resilient silver is the face of POSX strength. While the dollar is up 0.71% against the euro right now (11.52 Amsterdam time) silver is only down about 0.10% in dollar terms. In euro terms it's up 0.65%.

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  169. Anyone got an opinion on Focus Minerals Ltd?

    Have a read of this...

    http://www.juniorgold.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/Junior_Gold_FactSheet_201104_update.pdf

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  170. Didn't write any mails, but I do hope for a dip to increase my position. And I'm expecting one too, be it only 1$.

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  171. @Vamoose

    How can you only look at the charts and say we are going to drop Big time? Sure the charts are screamming correction,but Are you not paying attention to outside events?

    The endless pumping of money? The spending on three wars? Higher taxes? The turmoil in the mideast?Record unemployment levels with no end in sight? inflation? The loss of world reserve currency status? The possibility of default or more borrowing in June? the ferocious demand for physical metal ? ect,ect..

    Sure were going to have a correction, but it wont be huge and it wont be long, and if the US continues to devalue its own dollar and spends like a drunken sailor with a visa card,then there is only one way for PM to go .

    If your going to look at the charts in a bubble by themselves, I think everyone would agree with you. There are huge outside factors that need to be considered.

    Im a serious poker player, and I want to know the odds before I put my hard earned money in pot, and if the odds are good,Im in.If not, Im out. To me, Silver is a good bet. its not a guranetee win , but its a high percentage play, the odds are heavily stacked in my favor, and I like the odds. Im sitting on pocket Aces, and someone went all in ,Im 82% to win
    Should I call or fold? Im calling , I might lose the hand but I like my odds.

    Can you list anyoutside factors that make you belive silver is going to drop besides the charts?

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  172. "vamoose said...
    Look , even a routine correction of a parabolic blowoff is 30 percent, and generally far more, including complete retracement, which would be 17 kiddies. Thats where it started."


    Yeah, my PM dealer being out of 1000oz bars for nearly half a year now sure isn't sign of strong fundamentals.

    Sorry, but there is a fight for every lot of physical silver that reaches the market, and not because a few measly silver investors like to speculate, but because industrial users NEED silver to manufacture their products. Industrial demand has been pretty much 100% of world production for a while now, and the demand surplus the past decade or so has been fed by depletion of stockpiles. These stockpiles are gone now.

    Just for the sake of it, how do YOU believe this demand/supply imbalance is going to resolve itself? Keeping in mind that in most products, very little silver is used, meaning the impact of it on the price of the final product is negligible.

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  173. Teenage Wasteland: Jobless Rate For Young Is 25%—and Rising

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/42572175

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  174. Good morning all. I see some top-callers have emerged overnight. How nice :)
    It's good to have some balance, as long as the comments aren't truly trollish in nature.

    @swampfox (et al)
    Did you ever consider that 1980-1999 yrs of out-sized (compared to historic returns of 6-8% annual including dividends) stock market gains was the anomaly vs. gold/silver, not the other way around? Any of these short or long term bearish-metals arguments can (and if you're truly seeking truth should) be flipped to see how they look in the opposite direction.

    I don't -with certainty- know where gold and silver relative to the dollar and other asset classes are going as ROI, but I do know they represent the only asset I can completely control w/o counter-party risk. Other risks exist that I feel I can manage to my own comfort (unlike owning shares in APPL when SteveJ dies), like property taxation of metals (I won't declare or pay), like confiscation (I won't surrender 'em), like theft (I'll hide 'em well). Nothing is assured or 100%, but I trust nobody better than myself to manage my assets to my own best success or limit my own worst case scenario.

    Anybody - please suggest an alternative store of value and/or wealth builder that gives me the same or better control of my own destiny with the same or less counter-party risk. I'm serious, I only know that I don't know much at all. I'm always looking for new ideas to consider.

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  175. And for those that follow my XAG/USD trading, I watched the action last night until 10pm and hit the sack. Nice upside, good to know where the short range ceiling is. I did not sell my Friday positions at 3am (or otherwise), slept through and didn't care. But I did wake up for 7am and BTFD (lightly) at 42.76 (netdania). That's -60 cents (roughly 1.5%) off the Asia high. Good enough to get my feet wet for the day.

    I like TFs targets posted last night. Probably won't buy again in the 42s but would again in the 41s.

    We'll see what the rest day/week brings us..

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  176. I am a so very newbie in this world of options. However, I have been a avid reader of Zerohedge andjust found this article. Hopefully it helps some of you. I am just on the sidelines right now trying to learn.

    Plausibel Denial.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/options-risk-manipulation-and-may-silver-40-calls-fmx-connect-special-parts-1-and-2

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