Monday, April 25, 2011

Be Cautious

I am, once again, flat in silver. I bought 2 May 47s this morning at 35 and sold them an hour later at 70. I still have my June 1550s in gold but I'm about to sell them, too, if we get to 1515.

You have to admit that this is playing out almost exactly as planned. We've plummeted once. I'm sure that move was enough to shake out a lot quite a few of the fresh silver longs. I highly doubt that that is it. There will be another down leg. Options expire tomorrow and you've got this weird Fed news conference scheduled for Wednesday. That's more than enough ammo for The Cartel to give the silver tree a really good shake.

Nothing has changed, however. I will be looking to buy July silver calls at $45.50 and, as The Witch said over the weekend, we may even see $45. I'll be buying there, too.

Here are four charts with some guidance. I'll be out of pocket for most of the afternoon so, from here, you're on your own. I'll try to check in later, probably not until at least 6:00 pm EDT. TF

5:45 pm EDT UPDATE:
As predicted this morning, the goons at the CME raised margins again this afternoon. No shit. Really? No! 

"If I had to guess, the dip will come on the back of a margin increase from the goons at the CME. It won't/can't be a puny little increase, either, as the market will simply shrug it off if it is. No, it will likely be more substantial this time. In fact, you've already got Disinformation Agents like this shill practically begging for one:
All in the name of the greater good. "Please, CME. Save us from an overall market collapse by reining in silver."

Once again, The Cartel clearly gave notice to their buddies and silver sold off well before the announcement. Getting this behind, however, us is good news!! No need to worry about another margin increase anytime soon. 
Now, in a sell the rumor but buy the news type of event, the selling may diminish and silver may head straight back to $50. It also might not. I still think that the highest likelihood probability is for silver to head down again tonight and tomorrow and retest the lows of this morning, near 45.50. It may even make it all the way down to $45. Again, IF that happens, I will be an aggressive buyer of July calls as I expect a move toward $50 or even $52 by late next week.
That's it for now. I hope that I was able to help you navigate this extremely crazy day. Be sure to check back in tomorrow. TF out!


  1. Repost from last thread:
    For all of you with PMs in holding vaults:
    Silver Delivery Not Possible - Zerohedge

    Just something to digest in the volatile market. It *is* better to have and to hold IMO, do your own due dilligence. YMMV

  2. 1st raid. Common BM, flush it down harder!

  3. Wow - outside doing chores - check it is 47.63 - and I missed a 2 dollar swing. Man I am happy just staying in - I hope you traders caught that dip and no one got margin called. That must have been brutal to watch - I think Turd's white out is going to be a necessary accessory.

  4. @sp
    If there is any hint of ending QE, bond rates will go up, stk mkt down and PM down. That will be the reflex action. Right?

  5. I'm outa here. Going off the grid for a while. Thanks to all! Latez

  6. Yes. That will be the reflex action.

  7. Ok, here we go, beatdown to 1:30 at play.

  8. 'Hello Mr. Tyler. Going.... down?'

  9. @Atlee

    "In adddition I use a slow stochastic with bollinger bands for timing."

    Would you be willing to elaborate on the settings you use for these indicators?

    Currently I am using the 5 min bars and watch volume. Yours may enhance my trading.

    Thank you.

  10. Last two bottoms of silver on hourly chart.

  11. FROM ZH:

    Four Scary Words: "Silver Delivery Not Possible"
    Submitted by Tyler Durden

  12. 45.50 was nearly hit (within 3 or 3 cents I think) on the paper market for a second today. Anybody who bought that dip, should collect profits intraday today. The CME margin hike has not been announced yet (it will, as the commodities houses are getting pressure from the Justice Dept at this point) and that will drag silver down, no doubt. Also, the nervousness about the FOMC meeting: any suggestion of QE3 not taking place will take silver down further than 45.50/45.00, IMO.

  13. One day soon the games wont matter...

    Bye-Bye Miss American Blythe!

  14. Silver Delivery Not Possible.......but lotsa fresh green fiat is and it will continue to be finger in the dam........

  15. What's even scarier about the example quoted on ZH was that this was at $18.XX. Imagine what similar accounts are like now... [crickets]

  16. LOOKS LIKE AN FDR: ben speak wed.;4/27 may just be a revaluation of the dollar; suddenly overnight as in '33. Rather than watch the USD get crushed in crashcading panic, FDR revalued the dollar against gold overnight. Brics in control. Brics have all the gold/silver and much in reserve to dig out. We the people are buried in debt and a debt based currency; USDollar! Which china has all guns directed at financially this FOMC week. Looks like dead head fed goon central bankster fraudsters are checkmated.. A revaluing of the dollar; coming as a thief in the night, is standard operating procedure for our corrupt government.

  17. @ silver cell
    Live chart watch 5min, 10, 30, 10, 5hr and of course daily.
    Even look at 1 min. Shorter term for day trades
    (1 thru 10) dont always act. my MA for the bands in silver is 16. I also have 20, 40 and 50 ma running. I am looking for confirmation between all indicators before I pull the trigger. I dont watch the eft I make all decisons of the physical.

  18. @silver cell

    meant 1 hr instead of 2nd 10

  19. Thank you Atlee. I am going to add these to my OANDA chart.

  20. Contrarian viewpoint:
    Everyone keeps saying we are in phase 2 of a secular bull market, I propose we are in phase 3. Look at the comments on this site - lots of cheerleading and self-congratulatory posts - definitely irrational exuberance being exhibited by the investors in the market. The argument can be made that it needs to be "everyone and his barber/plumber/pet" like the dot-com or housing/credit bubbles, but the silver market is FAR smaller than either of those markets, so a bubble could happen with fewer speculators involved (but would certainly be exaggerated by more speculators).

    Don't get me wrong, I am bullish (and long) silver. I have been quite pleased with profits on some of my SLV calls. But I frequently ask myself, do the fundamentals of silver, RIGHT NOW, demand a price of $45 - 50 per ounce? With profits that miners make at this price, how much acceleration will there be in annual silver production? and when and how much will increased supply stifle future silver price increases? how will rising oil prices and gas at $5 or 6 per gallon affect miner profits and the price? Finally, if I believe silver's price should be higher based on dollar devaluation and currency failure, is physical gold a more appropriate store of value than physical silver (no country will go on a "silver standard", but I could see a return to fractional gold standard)?

    I am remind myself to remain emotionally distant from the investments I am making, and I am cautious of risking too much money with too much leverage.
    GLTA, and go-go-go SLW!!! (please baby?)

  21. Them's fightin' words, afrum. While anything's possible, I am not counting on that just yet...My guess is more obfus/mystification doubletalk from the Bernankster and one more round of dead cat bounce in the PO$X... But what you are talking about (or events with same outcome) is coming...and soon... gotta get some more physical...

  22. This comment has been removed by the author.

  23. I see only panic buying with the fraud banks on every dip, banksters having lost confidence in benron burnokio to set the Titanic financial situation upright. Jumping ship!!!!!!! I'd hold all physical gold/silver for certain regardless of what happens when benron dies; along with the dollar. It may just be 4/27. Can't think of a better way to celebrate post Easter with a death rattling gurgle from the EE.

  24. can anyone please provide a live SLV candlestick chart I can use please?

  25. A month or so ago you were talking about horrible things that would happen to JPM if silver went over $36. Did any of those things actually happen?

    How big a loss did the big banks take when silver shot up? Do we have any evidence to show what happened?

  26. Does anyone dare to take temporary short positions in silver in anticipation of a JPM raid or Fed speak on wednesday?

    On one of my trading accounts I closed my long positions with a loss (wasn't necessary I dare to admit). This obviously makes me one of those sheep, at least for this account. It doesn't make me feel good.
    @Pailin: thanks for your answer

  27. Post-Comex behavior on Globex today - I seek opinions on

    The Comex closes in about 15 minutes. Would anyone like to venture a prediction as to the post-Comex behavior on the Globex today? And provide reasons for such prediction?

    -- Paul D. Bain

  28. Muchos gracias to the turd meister. Sold my $34 Silver at 49.48, Bought in again at 46, (Missed $45.50 by a nose hair. Will sell again soon.

    I believe the Turd is channeling Blythe, It must be the love.

  29. Does the market for SLV close at 3:00 CST?

  30. I do know this with absolute certainty. After ben speak wed. 2:15pm est. Silver price is driven only by the physical demand. A horrendous tsunami of a sweeping coast to roast demand; to get some physical silver and get it now! bankster ability to deliver the goods null and paper fiat dies into May; buried July!!

  31. michael duff: I may have posted some things that others were saying about JPM but The Turd himself did not say such things.

  32. 48.21 was open on comex, looks like they will try to peg 47.21 for a cool $1 loss today. Of course that is still up $0.60 from 46.60 comex close on thursday...

    My guess is that uncertainty (mild volatility, range around 46.50-47.50) rules the afternoon, and we will either see uncertainty or outright buying overnight in Asia. But then again, who can really predict price in this market?

  33. Checkout EndlessMountain's technical analysis. Where is silver going?

  34. I'm a new poster but have been buying silver & gold miners since 2002.
    Currently I am trading OTM AGQ May Calls.....does anyone have any experience with placing limit sell stops under positions that are already green?

    I have done this without a problem so far but only on a very limited basis. One of my concerns is that they may sell me out near the open due to the extremely wide bid/ask.
    Just like to hear others thoughts on AGQ &SLV options.

  35. Just got in from the road in time for the COMEX raid. I tell you what: it ain't easy monitoring the markets with a cellphone and screaming kids.

    Miners once again no where near the metals. How many days now has this been? And when the big take down comes, will they outperform the metals in their losses? You betcha.

    By the way, if the miner/metal divorce hangs on these hedge fund trade ratios metal/miner, shouldn't the miners see a bid when the metals get hammered? I mean, logically shouldn't they?

    They won't, of course, but I just want to point out the absurdity in this market.

    In fact, it seems the miners see minimal upside with the metals price rise and severe downside on the metals price decline.

    For the time being, investing in the miners is lose lose.


  36. JPM was handed a handed a license to be a registered COMEX vault. This is where all the losses are hiding, with anyone not taking delivery of physical into their own vaults.

  37. @ Afrum

    I have been rather suspicious about the timing of these speeches, as there are no coincidences these days. It is not a coincidence that China is coming out with stories talking about diversifying away from the dollar the week before Bernanke hits center stage. I am not expecting just a "normal" press conference by Bernanke, as we are in disparate times (good word of the day). Do not expect normal MOPE from the Bernanke, as this is not the reason he gets on television and engages in his quarter-annual propaganda conference.

    @Paul Bain

    I think that we trend up in globex/asian hours with a duplicate of today's performance tomorrow, however there may be one more downward punch before it is over for the day (as we are still in a short-term downward trend and am feeling they are just stalling the market). I don't think we will reach the highs that we reached yesterday, as the market has seen what can happen in a flurry as it approaches $50 and with all the uncertainty, I don't foresee panic buying going into tomorrow (unless its shorts covering). Although, anything is possible as we did not go down as much as I thought we would by COMEX close.

    As a side note, starting Thursday/Friday but especially May should bring new nominal highs for silver/gold. I can see Gold 1600 by end of May, a couple weeks before Turd's target, along with 60-70$ Silver (with even more upside potential with the right piece of news dropped on the market/occurrence).

    Wild times.

  38. afrum,
    If that is what bernanke will be announcing.. ? ...what will that mean for pm's? ..That would bode for higher prices ..or lower values in the metals? Trying to get my head around it.

    ....Did you get younger? :D

    Old-Swift-Boat-Vet = SwiftBoatVet :]

    I am aging noticeably trying to hang onto that $1K! :D ....Hurry up and get in to the options game with me so you can keep me on the straight and narrow with good trade advice! ....If not for you guys I wouldn't be trying this. ;)

  39. My.Harbl.Testes, just to piggyback on your thoughts, I've had some about trying to judge street sentiment now vs the last silver run of '80. Economically and fundamentally they are two different times, but I'm more interested in reliable signs of the times.

    Bear with me....In 1980 there was no internet so it makes sense we hear of lines around the block at the coin shop back then. That seems to be one of the signs folks look for. Now, will we ever see those kinds of early warning signs because of the internet?

    In much the same way we don't see bread/soup lines of the 30s due to electronic food stamp cards at WalMart, will we ever actually see the silver panic buying given how the internet can remove that from the public eye? Or, maybe because of the internet it will actually be easier to keep track of the frenzy due to our ability to monitor these large online sellers?

    Also, were Pt and Pd popular in the 80s? How might these two metals dilute the silver/gold investing pool?

  40. Chrisalias - Just remember that when you post a stop loss you are supplying the market with a target to steal your shares/options. If you broker does not post these to market, then your broker knows exactly where to take you out. I've been burned more with stop losses than without. To each his own.

  41. As I recall, those things about what happens to JPM when silver goes above $36 were all originated by Wynter Benton, and then repeated and speculated about by others. Doesn't mean they aren't true, just trying to clarify the original source.

  42. Ginger

    Buy right and sit tight. Not original, but good advice seldom is. :)

  43. @chrisalias
    you can set your sell triggers based on price of SLV (approximately USD 0.90-0.95 below silver spot price)...

    I agree. I don't think the poor performance of the miners has to do with being massively shorted, I don't see short interest shooting up. I wonder if there is something else that none of us see... I hope that after 1q earnings reports, institutional investors and hedge funds decide to add to long positions in the miners. maybe we even need to wait for the 2q earnings which will include an average silver price jump of over 20% and gold over 8%.

  44. benron burnokio will be betrayed by fraudsters who flattered the rat basturd. banksters losing confidence in bentrod to right the sinking titanic financial ship. Fraudsters are jumpin ship in droves! Leaving bentrod the laughing jackass of the 21st century, with tiny tim 1st mate sheitner; going down with the ship!! TOO BAD! I'm so sad!! POOR bentrod & timmy? Jackasses sealed in a silver time capsule for time & eternity. A testament to the ilk within the EE these scum are. Other than that a fine pair of idiots missing the other stooge lil scamBO..................

  45. Time to hit the local dealers:
    Apmex out of Eagles until May

  46. Atlee...

    If the Fed ever decides to do the right thing, or even put the brakes on so to speak, and the market starts to truly collapse/correct for want of more QE (or whatever), then I will switch some of my paper trading from AGQlike things into the following... these are my potential "down market AGQlike vehicles" in no particular order:

    1) TWM: 2x inverse short of the Russel 2000
    2) SKF: 2x inverse short of Financials.
    3) I am sure there are others like tis, but TWM for sure.

    Indicators that were true in 1987 and 2008 (no idea if this will hold true now though): Decisive break below the $SPX 50-DMA followed by a strong bounce that fails to stay back above the 50-DMA.

  47. Don't worry about our corrupt government pulling an FDR. Especially with physical precious metals in hand. When it happens; and it will! Gold/silver revalued upward and dollar down. Can't tell you the percentages but 33% would not be out of the question. A panic crashcading selling in the dollar would be game over for the USD/US as a monetary policy leader. Prolonging the game means a near immediate FDR! Good luck and life vests on, with reserve life boat departure; physical gold/silver at arms reach!

  48. FWIW....most of you are well aware of what can happen when you corner a rattlesnake....just be aware everything they do is planned and Ben speaking AFTER the FOMC wreaks of some big manipulation coming. No reason to try a be a hero here......hold your physical but careful on paper trades.

  49. How the Fed is carefully choreographing its first-ever public press conference on Wednesday:

  50. Brett Arends, MarketWatch
    IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end

    BOSTON (MarketWatch) — The International Monetary Fund has just dropped a bombshell, and nobody noticed.

    For the first time, the international organization has set a date for the moment when the “Age of America” will end and the U.S. economy will be overtaken by that of China.

    IMF sees China topping U.S. in 2016According to the latest IMF official forecasts, China's economy will surpass that of America in real terms in 2016 — just five years from now. Brett Arends looks at the implications for the U.S. dollar and the Treasury market.
    And it’s a lot closer than you may think.

    According to the latest IMF official forecasts, China’s economy will surpass that of America in real terms in 2016 — just five years from now.

    Put that in your calendar.

    It provides a painful context for the budget wrangling taking place in Washington, D.C., right now. It raises enormous questions about what the international security system is going to look like in just a handful of years. And it casts a deepening cloud over both the U.S. dollar and the giant Treasury market, which have been propped up for decades by their privileged status as the liabilities of the world’s hegemonic power.

    According to the IMF forecast, whomever is elected U.S. president next year — Obama? Mitt Romney? Donald Trump? — will be the last to preside over the world’s largest economy.

    Most people aren’t prepared for this. They aren’t even aware it’s that close. Listen to experts of various stripes, and they will tell you this moment is decades away. The most bearish will put the figure in the mid-2020s...

  51. Traders already got their 32% fib retracements at around 47.60 today. I do not see much hope for a strong rally into the close of the NYSE from a TA perspection. Spot pinned at $47.20 by EOD would just be a neutral.

  52. DPH: that is a *very* optimistic date. 2016? More like 2012, at the latest.

  53. I think Bernank and the Fed are going to do something fairly dramatic policy wise that will effect the market quickly.
    Not sure what that may be, but this seems all a little too dramatic and somewhat unprecendented to just say the same old thing.
    Maybe this is one of those moments.

  54. " I bought 2 May 47s this morning at 35 and sold them an hour later at 70."

    Turd, can you explain this trade for the slower folks in the audience. What security are you buying these options on?

  55. @prizefighter
    thanks for the input. I was "unaware" at the time of the silver craze in the 80's, being 10ish - and more concerned with recess and dungeons and dragons at the time. :)

    I guess that is the key, "if physical shortages develop"... at silver $50, it is more difficult to reduce the available physical silver by means of retail investors. at silver $60, it becomes even more difficult. at silver $100 (when gas and milk will both be $8+ per gallon and wonder bread will cost $5), who will have money to invest in silver, except those who leveraged silver on the way up? i guess my point is that everyone makes these price targets of 60-70 by july, or 100 by the end of the year, but i question whether at current levels of above ground silver plus ongoing production, if there is enough investor demand (money) to create that physical shortage, especially with vehicles like CEF, PHYS, SLV etc. Even though true, the whole argument that if you don't hold it you don't have it only holds weight with a very small fraction of paper silver investors.

    Then again, if tulving inventory drops from over 450K ozs silver to under 200K ozs, that will be my signal that I should consider getting the last I may ever see, and honestly, I would probably still buy at a 1:3 silver:gold ratio.

  56. Hi all. I need to educate myself with regards to trading silver online. I am a total noob and by that I mean zero experience in the stock market and investment in general.....other than holding physical. I'm looking for info that will help me understand what the heck y'all are talking about when it comes to trading futures.

    Thanks in advance for pointing me in the right direction.

  57. uncommon, I believe Turd is speaking of options on futures contracts.

  58. So why all the energy expended today by the EE if Benanke is going to lay a bomb on us later this week?

  59. Great day in the metals pit, great day indeed.

    Strong is the force, the dollar on the other did Nothing, Zilch, Nadda

  60. Hope y'all bought that dip below $47 this morning!

    I know I did!!! ;)


  61. Atlee,
    Isn't smashing PMs before Fed announcements standard EE procedure?

    Seems they're trying to take another whack right now. But they're going to have to whack harder.

  62. The latest from Bob Moriarty at It may be worth it to read a guy with a very different view of Silver right now. Just sayin'.

  63. First day every trading options, does any wise investor have a link to a good candle chart for SLV? I know i have seen it before on here, but I cant find it. Can anyone help?

  64. @Titus: They are very well practiced whack-offs at the Death Star, IMO, YMMV.

  65. Going long the metals and short the miners is an absolutely brilliant play. Buy and hold is proving to be a sucker's game. From now on, when any of the miners on my watch list are overbought, I'm shorting the shit out of them, no matter what the metals do. I should have gotten on board with this months ago.

  66. Well, please be cautious and make your own decisions. I don't buy the fear. I stick to what I have so vociferously stated before. If we see Turds 45.50 I will be buying more. Still doubt we will. GLTA

  67. @Atlee...

    Did you see my post above about shorting the market and the indicator I'll be watching for?

  68. @ Fort
    Thanks I think those are good ideas. I havent looked at them yet. Do they trade any volume? I would be willing to buy some insurance the evening before the confessional

  69. Ginger
    My openid (Old-Swift-Boat-Vet) was swallowed up into who knows where. Just got myself a new handle. I'm still early 20s inside, so thought I'd drop the "Old" part. ;^)

  70. SSK,

    Sorry, I totally disagree. Now is a great time to accumulate shares of a few best of breed players in each tier. At prices I freely admit have been crushed down by the recent, prolonged & highly coordinated EE shorting action via their hedgie pets.

    For a long-term play, this strategy will bring great rewards. Whether the market crashes has been a daily risk for years now. Doesn't mean I'm not going to play where I know I'll make $$$.

    Buy the best, use patience, use sell stops, and ride out the near term squalls. Up in the crow's next, I'm sensing fine sailing over the horizon. Fortunes will be made on some of the miners and I'm going to be someone who gets there.

    I own metals first, and totally agree with you about the security they provide. But I believe in leverage, so the miners are an organic part of my strategy. That my hoped-for "leverage" is in some cases actually in reverse right now does truly suck. Oh yeah. But it probably should not surprise us that failing to stop metals, they're now on the miners.

    But the fact that miner share leverage has in some cases been reversed in the short term does not equate to its actual negation! Someday, this too shall pass and when the miners find their true value, look out.

    Miners remain an integral part of my overall PM strategy, and nothing I've merits a change in my outlook and tactics. Buying the best at stupid low prices is seldom a losing proposition, especially when you're in the market for anything other than the short term. Anything longer: don't sweat the daily noise.

    Buy low: well c'mon, here's a great opportunity.

  71. @Fort
    I was thinking writing some calls or buying some puts the afternoon before on es or long bond. Nobody has made any serious money in any ultra short anything although I have tried. I agree with Turd that QE can never end just be called something else

  72. Turd et al,

    "I will be looking to buy July silver calls at $45.50."

    I am using SAXO trading platform, how do u buy the above? Under what symbol ? Anybody can help ?

  73. Wow, Bruce. There were so many inaccuracies in the first few paragraphs that I stopped reading the rest of it. I like my new silver normalcy bias!

  74. This is one of those tough call moments. I have at present lost faith in the miners utterly and completely. Why the hell do you buy them if gold and silver reach new highs and they stall or worse lose 2-3%.

    I will be selling into any strength as we close (if there is any). The risk are simply staggering. We've for all purposes hit Santa's 1521 target in gold. We're overextended in silver. And the calendar is full of buggaboos, starting with the COMEX (which never fails), the Bernank about to jawbone, and the miners pointing to a drop of ungoldly proportions in the metal. I don't see the upside here with holding when the downside risk is so disproportionate.


  75. @Timer,

    With Saxo, you need to open an options board, choose the XAGUSD cross, choose a date, and the number of contracts. Saxo doesn't use symbols for purchasing options but speaking from experience, you'd do better trading SLV, ZSL, or other ETF options than through Saxo. The premiums are high and while you have better date choices, I personally find options on metal crosses using Saxo a costly strategy.

  76. SSK, not saying it ain't awful hot in the kitchen right now. But my faith has not been shaken. Not hardly.

    A great case of Miner Rape and the upside it affords: Paragon Minerals. Down to .142 Ask today. I'd call it a Joke if it weren't such a screaming buying opportunity. No kidding, no pumping: DYOD (of course), but at this price, PAONF is a saa-weeet buy. And at this point there are numerous other similar victims from which to choose...

    So thanks for the gifts, you f*cking Godless swindlers!

  77. Bob Moriarty calls a top in silver:

  78. On the Net Dania silver live chart we have a 4.25 High/Low spread the greatest ever in any 24 hr trading period. High was 49.78 at 1:10 AM EDT. Low was 45.63 at 10:20 AM EDT 10 minute chart. I can remember when that was the price 11 years ago. We have entered a new paradigm for sure.

  79. @SSK
    I'm of a similar mind re: risk vs. reward at Mon 3pm.
    I lightened my XAG up a little bit about 2 mins ago, down to slightly larger than core. Frees up more powder to buy deeper into the week.

    $45.50? $42.50? Not fear mongering, just two targets that I would buy heavily into. I'm still holding core+ because upside is not out of the question.

  80. I have not bought or sold any positions today. Way too scary. If I try to trade this market I'll get murdered. I'm just holding and trying to be conservative.

    It could go down, but I don't really care. It will definitely go up, and I want to be on that midnight train.

  81. @SSK, Yo're not alone in your view, however Embry and others suggest selling miners now will be a terrible mistake. Those behind this have tried to wear down the market and force capitualtion. I'm adding junior miner positions not selling, let's see who called it right come the Fall.

  82. Hey All,

    Long time reader with a question to everyone... For those who trade online, what platform do you use? I was about to open an etoro account but then discovered they don't do gold/silver.

  83. @Atlee...

    I'll only play those if the 50DMA criteria is hit... I agree with you and Turd on QEforever, so I'm not making that play until the market is actually headed south... I won't try to "pre-emptively" strike/short the market.

  84. @SSK,

    Don't lose faith in the miners. The returns will be exponential and the should begin moving soon. If you are holding only mining shares, then sure, diversify into physical and some trading positions but don't give up your entire position in miners out of frustration. That's exactly what they want you to do.

  85. The EE must have a lot of kitchens.

  86. silversurfer21,

    I am a complete noob, but found the optionhouse platform very easy to understand and use.

  87. ewc58,

    Good luck. I hope you are right. I have lived through too much bloodshed in the precious metal market to be confident TODAY. I'm heeding both instinct and the Turd. I'd love for a little rally at day's end to sell off. Believing the miners just have to rally is a strategy that will lose money every time.

    Protecting one's capital is job number one at my house.


  88. I'm starting to freak out about holding my mining shares. Reading Bob Moriarty's piece from today is making me want to exit all of my trades, and BTFD after Wednesday's FOMC. Bad decision?

    I'm a newbie, so bear with me. Having been lurking here since February, Turd has helped me greatly. Mu current holdings are in First Majestic (AG), Aurcana (AUNFF), Canasil Resources (CLZ), EXK, LODE, THM, SVM, and Pretium.

    Sit tight or sell everything?

  89. Waffen,

    Many thanks! Looking into it now.

  90. @Diamond,

    Bob Moriarty called a top last month at $38. I've bought some of his stock recommendations in the past. I credit him with being consistent. Consistently wrong that is.

  91. ALL:

    Be aware that Bob Moriarty is a huge disinfo agent. Totally ignore he and 321 gold, there are too many other quality sources to have to stick a straw into his foul cesspool.

    Bob is an extremely nasty and foul mouthed excuse for "PM expert". Or human being for that matter.

    Put good Dr. Moriarty in the shitter, along with Nadler and the rest of the top calling treason monkeys.

    Please all, cease and desist posting links or any reference to his worthless and distracting crap. Thank you Team!

  92. Hahahahha;
    Everyone buying ETFs, miners, etc.
    Don't waste your time/money.

    Hope you bought the dip!!!!
    We're going straight to $60.
    Don't believe it? Go check the spreadsheet with people's bids for last week. You will see me at "~47$" , in other words "approx. forty-seven dollars"!!! Spot closed in US Thursday at 46.66 and jumped to 47.76 in asian markets. Average it out and you will know who should be wearing the BIG YELLOW HAT!!!

    ~~~ "THE JEEPSTER"

  93. Fort.
    You are right. I was starting to let all the fear mongering get to me. I am not doing anything but looking for buying opportunities and some day trade scalping to butrees by position. Everybody suddenly has a boogie man for us to fear. Onward and upward my friend.

  94. Re: First Majestic

    I've been warned off this company. I've been told they have issues with their reserves. I don't have any more specific information than that, sorry.

  95. @ewc58:

    Thank you for making me aware of Bob Moriarty as being a disinfo agent. It felt much better hearing the latest KWN interview with John Embry, re: stay long in the miners.

  96. Other people buying GPL at 3.63?

  97. I sold all my shares and jumped into

    DUST this morning...up 4.53% :)

  98. Moriarty has laid his balls on the chopping board with his somewhat dismissive arguments about the whole case for silver. He assumes all COMEX etc Gold bars are kosher, sorry that is so damn naive! Let's see if he is right in the weeks ahead..but he joins a growing and LONG que of writers that have been wrong so many times (and counting) on this once-in-a-generation silver bull run. The fact is, some of our brightest and best writers will be shown to be blind fools. Many financial geniuses were ruined in the Wiemar period.

  99. @Shill:

    do you feel happy about having sold all your shares this morning?

  100. Jeepster, who ya laughing at there mate?

    Dimes to dollars my pile o' metal is waaay bigger than yours. That's right bro. And speaking as someone who's already there:

    I'm STILL buying metals

    AND I'm STILL buying miners

    Wanna bet who gets to laugh last?

  101. do you feel happy about having sold all your shares this morning?


    Yes I do, at least until after Wednesday then I will reload.

  102. Prize Fighter

    I agree and would go even further to say that today's silver market is NOTHING like that of 1980. Sure, there were books in the 70's about buying gold & silver and there was a survivalist culture, but as far as actual demand for silver, I don't think there can be any comparison.

    What we had then was two brothers and a few Saudi Prices who temporarily drove the price up, and then it immediately came back down when their attempt to corner the market failed. What we have now is an inelastic industrial demand (they MUST have it to stay in business) and a burgeoning retail AND institutional investment demand that is only beginning to really take off.

    (IMHO )

  103. Fuck me, the mail carrier just brought my latest package of metal and said, "Here's your gold bar!" I laughed and said, "I wish." Then I stood there for a full 5 minutes while he dicked around trying to get the package scanned. He finally got it, had me sign, and then said, "Enjoy your gold bar."

    Thanks for nothing to the dealer who put my silver in the smallest possible box. The mail carrier isn't stupid. I just have to hope he doesn't have a big mouth. In hindsight, I probably should have told him it was silver, because letting him think it was gold makes the situation worse.

    And thanks to Great Panther for falling off a cliff. You and the postman managed to make $47.50 silver a bittersweet day for me.

  104. Hey Diamond:

    You're a gem! :-)

    Embry, Hathaway: Good

    Fire, Nadler, Bob M: Bad

    I gotta keep it simple :-0)

  105. so will we close strong? I am still holding onto may June 55.. should I take my $600 profit on $2k or ride to the close?

  106. GoldMember
    I typically walk into a coin shop, and take a look at what gold is available. If there's something there that I like, I'll start in asking the guy what he wants for it. Normally I just tell him up front that I'm thinking about swapping silver for it. He'll be busy with his calculator, figuring his sell price on the gold, his buy price on whatever kind of silver you are swapping, and you should be doing the same either on your own calculator, or borrowing one of his, or in your head. Maybe you kind of worked it out ahead of time at home on what you'd like to pay (in silver) for a given piece of gold. DO NOT BE AFRAID TO NEGOTIATE!! Normally the first numbers he will come up with will be what he is thinking for a cash sale of gold and a cash buy of silver. I always try to go for a little better exchange, usually saying something to the effect that he's getting silver which he can again turn around right away and sell, while getting rid of some gold that is maybe a slower sell.

    The only FRN's that enter into it are if the deal doesn't work out precisely to the ounce. It seldom does. Often times there'll be a few $$ difference one direction or the other to settle up in cash. Or maybe you are swapping 10 oz bars. There could be a big difference there to settle up in cash. But normally I get it to work out to within $20 or so either way.

    Sometimes I have silver with me, sometimes I tell him I need to go and get the silver and I'll be right back. They are always fine with that and will hold it for me.

  107. DPH

    Once again, you are our ace news hound. Thanks!

    However, I think I differ with you in that I do think most people, even Joe Sixpack, have known for some time that China was going to have a bigger economy than the USA soon. And I don't think there are more than a handful of people in America who pay any attention to what the IMF says. So, I'm not sure how big the impact of this news will be. Maybe none?

  108. SLW was upgraded to Buy by UBS today with a target of $54.00 (per CNBC) - so of course stock is down 3.2% - (Good Grief!).

  109. Bob Moriarty...reading between the lines, I think that Moriarty is short silver from $39 an ounce..I think in his own mind, he would like to flush the Turd...

  110. You've got to love SLW's tenacious ability to fuck investors up the ass. I sold half my at the close last Thursday. Not regretting that trade one bit. It appears that EXK is now challenging SLW for the biggest bagholder stock in the silver patch.


  111. Appreciate the comments on Bob M. Believe me, I do not act on his panic pieces, but I have to admit that he can sound convincing at times.

  112. THis is the third or fourth upgrade SLW has received since Thurs. Made no difference whatsoever. The ask side of the SLW trade has montrous volume just sitting on it. It's going nowhere. And taking GPL with it, I might add.

  113. The Asian trade is going to look at this tonight and say holy crap, a $2 dip to buy and be all over it.

    don't let the bastards get ya down.

  114. SSK - AG also having a fine day - down 4.9% now.

  115. Who thinks the markets are now marking time for the FOMC "event"? Seems like the China debt-dumping news didn't cause wide spread panic in the equities markets. EE action this AM probably contained a breakout above 48, but now it seems like not much more is going to happen until BS Bernanke speaks. Am I missing something?

  116. SSK,I gotta think you are having a really bad day. SLW??? Wow, I mean how long have you owned it then?

    I bought SLW in '09 at $13, so I gotta say that getting anally raped doesn't readily spring to mind when I consider my holdings :-)

    Are you in a huge rush then? If not: breathe, Brother, breathe.

  117. atlee

    You were posting the answer while I was typing the question :)

  118. old navy
    great minds think alike

  119. I've own SLW shares purchased for 6 or 7 bucks. I'm not selling all of it. But I want out. Look at the likes of EGO, NG, and TRE if you want to know what happens to a miner who cannot break out of a funk.

    You trade mining shares too long, you go insane. Fact of life. No getting around it. Sorry if I'm freaking out. But SLW was 47 just weeks ago with the silver price a lot lower.



    There's your margin increase....

  121. @ssk
    i buy SLW calls because my SLV calls have been performing too well as of late. I'm up 3K (200%) on my SLV and down 1K on my SLW (50%), wouldn't want to make TOO much money now would I...

    I am keeping my SLW, but I'm pretty sure I'm getting out of my SLW calls - I just wish I could find some strength to do it on... SLW is a rock right now. I am sure when I sell it will rocket up to 50...

  122. I'd be very careful about choosing to tune out people that may have different views than us such as Bob Moriarty. He had some points that need to be considered and weighed instead of being dismissed outright.

    There are definitely some things to be worried about with silver's rise and foremost amongst them in my mind is the blind bullishness that is all over the internet and blogosphere. Before you get out your pitchforks and ropes though, let me just say that I have and hold physical gold and silver and have been for awhile - likely for longer than a good percentage of the readers here.

    I've said this for weeks now that silver has me troubled and I like gold far more than silver here. I know some of you enjoy a good conspiracy as much as I do. So if you believe in a new precious metals backed currency or float, have you considered the possibility that silver might be a classic misdirection to focus capital there instead of gold? What if gold is the only real measure of wealth for the world we may enter? Think that's crazy? That doesn't seem any more crazy than some of the stuff I've heard lately.

    If nothing else just take away that knowledge can be a barrier to learning and the best way to fish is to use a net and catch the fish as they are all swimming together. Ponder upon that.


  123. SSK, I'm now feeling greatly discouraged in being in miners. Maybe it's best to stay long in them, and only look at where they are once or twice a year.


    Finally the news comes out on the margin increase...

  125. CME Hikes Silver Initial And Maintenance Margins By 9%

  126. Bruce,

    Bob moriarty is a shill. You will not make any money on his recommendations unless you wait until they have tanked by 80%.
    I especially enjoyed his argument about the "rules" at Comex. Thank God the rules at Comes are so sacred!


    4.6 Million dollar SLV call

  128. This place is as fast as Twitter :)

  129. I was cleaning up some old papers and came across this. He wrote it on 12/22/04 and reposted it 12/23/09.

    For all the people looking for help convincing their friends and family about the real world this may help.

    In addition for those who are losing patience with the miners what you might take away
    is things take a long time to evolve. Once the egg breaks look out.

  130. "Xty said...
    Wow - outside doing chores - check it is 47.63 - and I missed a 2 dollar swing. Man I am happy just staying in - I hope you traders caught that dip and no one got margin called. That must have been brutal to watch - I think Turd's white out is going to be a necessary accessory."

    Today I was sunbathing and since I have a wireless network set up I am free to move around with my laptop. So I was sunbathing and watching the 4$ dip at the same time. It was okay since exposure to UV light causes the skin to release endorphines, so I kept quite calm :). Had to rush inside to the PC where my trading platform is installed though to buy the dip. Wanted to buy when it moved down to 45,6, 45,7, but by the time I was in the house it was already at 45,9 again... happened in less than half a minute.

    Of course you can't take a laptop anywhere, but I recommend getting a smart phone with an internet connection, that way you can set up to get emails or alerts at various price targets you set, and some trading platforms run on smartphones too, so if all else fails, you can trade from your phone.

  131. "Prize Fighter said...
    CME Hikes Silver Initial And Maintenance Margins By 9%"

    Yep, talk about predictable. Will have little to zero effect though.

    Effective as of close tomorrow? So, another smackdown tomorrow or Wednesday is practically guaranteed. Well, to be honest, can't wait to scoop up more silver on the cheap.

  132. The CME just hiked margins again. Big surprise there...

  133. @Markus
    You can trade on iPhone. It's limited but in an emergency, market orders will execute.

  134. Markus

    No offense, but have you heard of "limit orders"?

    Don't get overexposed out there in the backyard. ;)

  135. XAG kind of dumping at NYSE close. Not surprised, but I guess I'd hoped it wouldn't happen. Feeling better about my thinning move at 47.54. Looking for re-entry at Turd number 45.50.

  136. Kind of annoying that Netdania stopped working during that silver margin increase. AGQ was certainly going down.

    Any comments on a bearish evening star forming on the daily and weekly silver Netdania chart? I'm pretty new to this so just wondering if that might be a sign or if I'm reading it wrong?

  137. To all those who say "Silver is in a bubble" -- here is your answer.

    "Damn straight it is -- you just don't know what a bubble is"...

  138. Mike....I would love to have more "bearish" looking charts in my long portfolio like Silver....

  139. I agree Atlee. I watched the same panic-buying out of the Chinese with cotton and rice. Once they panic it seems to be buy buy buy regardless of price.

  140. missed most of the afternoon action, just got back. good thing, ended up keeping 1/4 position long agq.


    i must have lost my head, u r correct. if there is hint of "qe ending", then markets & pm will nosedive and bond yields should rise, so yes the trade u suggested was correct. after personally struggling with tbt and tlt for a long time, i have decided to just stay out of hedging with the bond market. i just never seem to get the trades to work out right. even when i am right the reward is usually not worth it.

    i am going to continue hedging tomorrow morning b4 the bernaken is released

  141. Mister said...
    "...the mail carrier just brought my latest package of metal and said, "Here's your gold bar!" "
    For all you know, this person may have a list of all the addresses that he delivers PM's to.

    You might consider going to the post office and have a word with the postmaster about your mail carrier's intrusive comment.

    Oh, and the next time that joker shows up at your door, be sure that he sees your shotgun as well as the pistol hanging from your belt.


  142. Long time lurker, 2nd time posting. Just wanted to know if anyone else was surprised at the pretty mild CME margin hike. At current spot price and the near parabolic moves I was expecting them fish the margin rate back to 15 or 16 to 1.

  143. I dunno Capt. Turd...maybe a new forum rule is needed here?: dudes should be posting on here that they've been "sunbathing"'s just...creepy and doesn't create a good mental image, at all.

    But if you're a hot chick on here and you've been sunbathing...please...send some pictures :)
    Cheers! lol

  144. Here is yet another perspective on the underperforming miners since it's being discussed here heavily today. ..A Q&A from NIA. I know some don't like them. I happen to like them very much. They have been pretty accurate in many predictions/calls and stock suggestions that have been long term $ makers for me. ..Anyway, glean from it what you can or skip it if you don't like them! C&P quote follows:

    Q I am very frustrated lately because of silver prices going up very well, but most silver mining stocks not rising. When does this situation turn around?
    A It will turn around when the last person who is frustrated
    like you is finished taking profits and selling. Stocks are
    forward looking and for the past year, many silver stocks
    outperformed the price of silver big time. Although we
    expect profitable, producing silver stocks with strong
    balance sheets to continue outperforming silver over the
    long-term, you won't always see silver stocks outperform the
    price of silver on a continuous basis.

    At this time, we believe most silver stocks are extremely
    undervalued compared to the price of silver. Although silver
    miners are seeing their costs rise with oil prices soaring,
    their costs aren't rising by nearly as much as the price of
    silver. The largest cost for silver miners is labor and very
    few silver miners are giving raises to their employees.

    The profitability of silver miners will explode in the
    upcoming quarters. If the price of silver stays in the
    mid-$40s, some silver miners will be earning a record
    breaking $40 profit per ounce of silver produced. In our
    opinion, there is pent up demand for silver stocks and
    unless there is a major short-term correction in the price
    of silver, we are about to see a major short-term rally in
    silver stocks by somewhere between 15% and 30%.

    Another reason why silver stocks aren't reaching new highs
    is because we have been seeing nearly all silver miners
    raise money in large private placements. Silver mining
    companies are taking advantage of rising silver prices to
    issue new stock to the public so that they can increase
    their cash reserves in order to either expand their mills
    and production capacities, or possibly make acquisitions.
    Although in the short-term this is creating some dilution in
    silver stocks and holding their share prices down, we will
    likely begin seeing some acquisitions in the industry
    announced in the near-future, and that will be a catalyst
    that will drive many silver miners to new all time highs.

  145. Back Seat

    FWIW, I was surprised, also. I thought it would be more substantial. I was wrong.

    One of the other posters above implied we won't see the effect until tomorrow, but I recall previous ones having an instantaneous effect. ZH comment said it was anticipated and already priced in.

  146. My call for Wednesday Fed: Rate Hike.

    Just got that feeling. Either they will be doing it at the fed meeting, or calling for it next time (June) at the press conference. They will be trying to squeeze the "speculators." Even though we are all speculators now.....

    It would give them more yield on all their treasuries and bonds to reinvest, propping up the markets. The participating banks will not feel it, but the average joe will get hit - Hard. Look for increased pricing in margin accounts. The traders are going to get squeezed and the government (taxpayer) is going to get squeezed.

    It is one of the best ways to TRY to put a lid on the gold/silver market. It will backfire on them in time.

    Don't get washed out of your core positions. It's going to get bumpy!

  147. fwiw ... Right now, I'm disappointed with the performance of my miner shares. I don't really understand what is going on, but I can think of three possibilities.

    1) Many people don't believe that the current PM prices will hold up. They might believe we are in a "blow-off top" with regards to the metal prices, and that they will fall as quickly as they went up. I came across a Forbes article that lends weight to this idea:

    Gold and Silver due for Correction

    2) People are worried about a general stock market correction that would take the mining shares with it, so they are taking profits on their mining shares.

    3) People are waiting for earnings announcements before deciding to buy mining stocks. I couldn't find an announcement schedule, but I looked up the 1Q announcement dates for 2010 for several companies and they seemed to be around the 2nd week of May, so maybe the announcements will come out around the 2nd week in May this year, too.

    I think 1) above is the most likely alternative. Anyway, I've decided to hold my miners for now, because I couldn't find a pressing reason for a sell off.

  148. Today's action simply desperate bankster fraudsters colluding to get the crimex OEX calls down to manage; less than a canned bacon, pig porkin, snout squealing wipe out. Let the desperate ilk work vermin black magic but know it's over for the EE soon!! Physical silver wins and the fiat paper pit diggers fall into it's bottomless depths.

  149. Parabolic move in silver atm, I've closed out almost all silver positions that I've been holding for 6 months, will buy back in after a correction..

  150. oldNavy,

    That was exactly my thought process. Your right though, I think tomorrow and Wed will be edge of your seat days.

  151. @ Mister
    nxt time just tell him they are marine or tractor or heavy equipment engine parts. Brass fittings for boat, anything heavy. Then say but if you have any real gold bars in there I will be happy to take them off your hands.

  152. "oldNavy said...

    No offense, but have you heard of "limit orders"?

    Don't get overexposed out there in the backyard. ;)"

    No offense taken.

    Orders may be practical for some, but if you really wanna play it tight, in my opinion then you should just do everything manually.

    What order would you have entered before you went out today with silver at 49$? I am pretty sure anything but 45,65.

    On weeks with options expiry, Fed meeting, and especially such a strong run up the last week, just stay glued to the netdania price chart with (very important) volume data enabled, and act on the fly. When they throw 50-100k contracts on it you know they've run out of ammo and that it's buying time. An automated order that acts on price targets alone can never be that precise.

  153. The reason mining stocks are going down when both gold and silver are hitting new all-time-highs is simply that they are being shorted, just like paper gold and silver.

    This is being done as an attempt to hide the huge change that is occurring in the financial landscape.

    Can you imagine what is going to happen when 5 of the top 10 IDB stocks are miners? It will happen, but for now TPTB are delaying and trying to buy time.

    When it happens, it will be epic. Just buy and hold and buy some more.

  154. Well, anyway, if we close around here, we'll just be flat for the day, not down, even after that 4$ smackaround.

  155. BM (no, not her or bowel movement), claims his call of a top at 38 is till valid. That was 20% ago and he still thinks he'll be right? What kind of logic is that?

    More BM:

    1. Silver is going parabolic so be smart and sell now.

    Sure there could be a correction, but I believe Eric King's London Source who just today announced that these Asians will not stop buying until it reaches 100. These Asians were the ones to have trapped the shorts to begin with.

    2. Gold to Silver Ratio.

    He claims it is not 16-1 or even 20-1 but much higher, maybe even 64-1. He uses wikpedia to support his case...and we all know how wikpedia works.

    3. There is no shortage of silver.

    BM said, "Silver is a commodity like any other."

    What does that tell you about his understanding of silver? We all know that fiat is worthless. People want real money. China and India are snapping silver up. It's called "the poor man's gold". If gold is trading as money, then so is silver. And unlike gold it is ALSO a commodity.

    4. The parroting of illogical facts.

    He uses ZH as the example of illogical thinking. 'nuff said. Sure there are those saying wrong things about silver, but that doesn't make every silver bull wrong. Think of the silver bulls you respect and follow what they say. Are they saying silver has topped?

    5. There cannot be a run on Comex.

    Sounds like he doesn't believe Comex is low on the physical. I don't know. He rambles at this point.

    BM is wrong about silver and refuses to see it. His blindness will cause his readers to lose out.

    These are just a few thoughts I had on the piece.

  156. A response to an older post:

    $500 face bag of junk silver [90%] is supposed to weigh approx. 357 troy ounces. Simple math means that the $500 face bag divided by 352 troy ounces comes out to approx. $1.40 face equals 1 troy oz.

    Thus, a half bag of junk silver [$500 worth], being conservative, weighs about 350 ounces. At $50/oz., a half bag is worth $17,500, provided there is no premium on top of this.

    1 troy ounce is 31.1034 grams, for those of you who like metric (not me, never really learned it since I went to public school here in the USA in the 70's).

    So, whoever was the dumb ass that said a $500 bag of silver is worth $50,000, please come on by, I have four bags to sell you . . .

  157. Titus,

    You keen on any junior miners?

  158. Who exactly has the power of authority to convernt 401k and IRA's? Could it be done by Presidential executive order or by congress? What about Ben Shalom Bernanke?

    Reason I ask is, no way does Ben stop QE. Can you imagine the sheeple's outrage?! Gas prices up. Food prices up. They are thinking "Well at least the market is looking good! I'm not ready to get the pitchfork out just yet if we keep it going." I don't think Ben and Obama can afford to delay at all (this has been bouncing around in my head for a long time). Obama's approval ratings are dropping too... ONLY thing that is doing good is the market, I don't think they will want to lose it. So how about a double whammy, QE3 and 401k confiscation on Wednesday! We monetize $2T of retirements to buy us another year and tell people that they now have a guaranteed rate of 5% per year annuity. At that point the next President is holding the bag. And everything unravels at the speed of light.

  159. Peter Schiff on CNBC Fast Money 4/25/11: Unstoppable Silver

  160. Diamond said... "Bob Moriarty calls a top in silver:"

    Like a stopped clock, Bob Moriarty eventually will get it right.

  161. Markus

    I know you are a savvy and very capable trader. I just couldn't resist the opportunity to be a smart ass. :)

    I have a limit order in for some more SLV JUL calls, but to tell the truth, I am only estimating what the premium should be at 46.

  162. @ Titus- Probably a stupid question. Whats IDB an acronym for ?

  163. @Titus Andronicus
    "This is being done as an attempt to hide the huge change that is occurring in the financial landscape.

    Can you imagine what is going to happen when 5 of the top 10 IDB stocks are miners? It will happen, but for now TPTB are delaying and trying to buy time."
    I agree totally with you, they cannot control Silver as much anymore so they are trying to keep the miners down so it is not so obvious to everyone - money is nothing.
    The players in this game have shown they know how to swing this market and they will do it so no one will take physical, just roll it.
    Hold onto your miners and get more, enjoy the deep discounts they are, just bought more GPL today, when they let loose with them they will fly....

  164. Back Seat Driver,
    I buy and hold stocks. I don't trade. I spread them over 20 or so miners. I have 80% in physical silver and just 10% in stocks.
    I bought based on recommendations of Bob Chapman, Rob McCewen, David Morgan, and this site. The usual suspects.
    I'm about 60% juniors and 40% "top tier".

  165. So, here is the $2-3 pulldown I mentioned, but this isn't the end of it all.

    What is now required is for the longs to call Blythe's bluff. Those dogs are cornered and they are giving it their all, but they are close to collapse.

    If the longs can hold tight, fight back and cross $49-50, the Morgue will be toast. The EE is putting it all on the line, but they are really short, are running out of ammo and have lost a shitload of FRN. A resounding and convincing response will flatten them.

    Will the longs come back during Asian trading? Will they BTFD and FUBM? Eventually yes, but this is the time now to counter The Witch. This is the chance to PULL HER DOWN. Let's hope the longs go for the juggler.

  166. @ Catseyenu

    Chuckled at your comment.
    The first paragraph told me all I really needed to know:

    For those who missed my piece of March 25, 2011, here is the link. I asked the question, "Is Silver Topping?" I may have been right about silver topping, only time will tell. For certain I was dead wrong about the timing and the price. Silver has rocketed from $38 and change when I wrote the piece to over $47 now.
    I guess he has not heard of nominal vs real. Pretty basic concept that seems to flabbergast so many people.

    Real Value of Silver from 1980$ Terms (Using government CPI),

    He will understand this number when we reach it by the end of 2011. Then his 20% miss will be a 450% miss, oops.

    And concerning his point about comex cannot default, technically this is true. They can pay cash contracts to everyone. However, are you going to tell me that they have all of their customer's silver/gold safely stored away? Not being able to deliver guarenteed silver/gold to your clients seems like a potential for default to me. And besides, they don't need to actually default for a physical shortage to cause a massive price increase, all they need is a failure to deliver. Eitherway, it sends the price of physical silver up as comex futures become a worthless derivative.

  167. Well, the monkeys did not stay in range long enough for me to get many shots off. Those critters are a lot more skiddish than they used to be. Maybe it's those monkey hides tanning on the barn wall from the fight at $36-38 that's scaring them off so quickly. Hard to believe that was only weeks ago.
    But it's a new season now and I'm ready to bag my limit again!

    Word ver - bubbi (what kind of guy does google think I am?)

  168. This comment has been removed by the author.

  169. Hope everyone caught the volume on the SLV today. WOW!!!

  170. IDB = Investors Business Daily. It is a daily stock newspaper. They grade stocks based on a number of factors, including accumulation and price action.

    I bought an issue over the weekend and I noted the following:
    1) Many miners are seeing "strong distribution" (selling). This is pushing their "grade" down.
    2) The only real indicator of PMs going crazy is that the top 3 ETFs are silver ETFs. Not much other mention.
    3) SLW is their #8 ranked stock. I think this is the reason it is being sold so hard. It would not be good for TPTB if SLW was #1.
    4) The miners are ranked #8 as an industry. This is pretty strong.

    So by looking through that issue of IDB, it is not easy to see that silver is BLOWING AWAY any other investment right now. And has been for some the last 9 months.

  171. @titus

    Thanks for Shiff link. All those panelist who usually attack him like rabid dogs are sitting there quietly and listening to his prognostications. That's really funny to watch. They actually let him finish his sentences without attacking him.


    The fed destroyed silver in the 1980s. Expect the same on Wednesday. At least they will try.

    Buy silver, gold and land. We will settle in metal.

  173. Errg, my algebra was wrong on the 450%, I feel ashamed. Used some weird numbers in my head!

    @ Titus

    I love your comments about miners, I am in agreement with pretty much everything you are saying lately. Definitely agree they are holding them back b/c they can't have 100s% gains sector-wide... but it is coming once the canary is let out of the bag (could be as early as this weeks news). China saying it is speculating at diversifying into gold/oil (even more) may be the catalyst that brings this upon us.

  174. @Eric

    Thanks. I do appreciate the insight.


  175. Phantom,
    That was huge! I thought 50 mill was a lot, but today shows the desperation of the monkeys. Six months ago that kind of volume would have had us hunkered down. Now we eagerly await the attacks.

  176. Thanks for the input, Mammoth and atlee. I considered telling him it was a box of gun parts, but I decided it wasn't any of his business. Now, after thinking it through, I wish I had gone with a good lie. I don't think I'll complain to the postmaster, because I don't want any additional attention. I'll just keep being nice to the guy, and I'll throw out the gun parts story the next time I order metal.

  177. Inside info on the FED announcement. They are going to announce that they are dropping the final two zeroes on all dollar denominates assets, for example all $100 bills in circulation will become a $1, but it will be good for you because even though all your $100s are now $1s, those $1s will have more purchasing power than $1s have had for many years. I trust them on this. /sarc

  178. Titus- maybe what we need is the threat of a paper failure to chase some of that money out of the big ETF's and into the individual miners. It will be something if big institutional monies does that!

  179. @Titus

    Nice. Solid strategy. Thanks for the insight!


    TRE is a must own long-term hold. Santa says.

  181. Turd doesn't have a crystal ball. He has crystal balls.

    Agree the FED news conference is weird (or normal, for these times) and will make for some potentially volatile swings.

  182. So, still a 30 cent upday. Not bad, if we do 30 cent up every day, we're up 100$ per year. Just to put things into perspective, how rapid this has been recently.

  183. Mister

    I know this is a stupid question but, I am curious, what does the sender part of the mailing label show?

  184. Mister said...
    "...the mail carrier just brought my latest package of metal and said, "Here's your gold bar!" "
    I think Atlee's suggestion is the smart one (marine/tractor parts) IF the guy has actually asked you something or made a comment... what you don't know is how many guys are wondering but not commenting.

    If at all possible, have the stuff shipped somewhere else. Even getting a box at a UPS store is a little better, but these guys delivering stuff aren't stupid. They know for the most part if they are delivering PMs or ammunition based on unique "signature required" requirements and in the internet age, it doesn't take much for a delivery guy to wonder "Hey, I think I'll google 'AMPEX' and see what they make?"

    Ship elsewhere if you can... if you haven't thought about it before, think about it now.

  185. Regarding mail carriers: my sense is that no matter what you tell them about the contents of the box, or how discreetely it's been packed and labeled, these guys are like the Karl the Janitor character in The Breakfast Club. They know pretty much everything about everybody on their route.

  186. @thecoloredsky

    It won't happen now, but it has happened in other countries. As the public systems collapse, they declare the need to tax to death or outright confiscate the private accumulations as if they were obtained through evil subversion against humanity.

    Converting your 401K will cost you 35%. Unless you're about to retire, I think you'd be crazy falling for the supposed tax benefits. The sacred cow status in civil court is another matter, but not taxes/penalties IMO. If your 401K is not completely self-directed you'll be seeing a lot more than 10% penalties, more on the order of several hundred percent opportunity cost, when silver reaches currency use. Most funds are heavy all the things that will fail first, yet have done wonderfully post 2k8's mini flash crash.

    It's really going to be taxed low 40 years in the future? Hah! It's really not going to be subject to new composition regulations where I have to get into T-Bills for the good of the country in order to remain tax exempt, ever? Hah! It's really going to remain penalty-exempt as everyone starts their early, but exempted, withdrawals? Hah! In 40 years, I will really be able to make a hardship withdrawal when everyone else has hardship but not everyone has a 401K, exposing my unfair advantage? Hah! No congress in 40 years, caught in a pinch, will remove the tax-deferred nature of IRA's and 401K's while restructuring SS as it fails? Hah! We will save what they let us save and pay whatever tax they feel, at the time they collect the tax, which may be after you collect the money. We are not the captains on this ship.

    If you are believe in the hype, and qualify, at least cash out and go Roth. If I'm gonna turn 10K into 100K, I'd rather the Tax Man get his share off of the 10K (14K ish pretax), not handing over greater than my orginal investment! My share is the same. Why would you ever intentionally hand over money at the end? What does that do but give someone else an undeserved payday to look forward to? And at an indeterminate tax rate? Not me.

  187. Damn, International Northair cleaned up shop today and picked up the slack of the rest of my miners, 22% today! Guessing they are going to be releasing their next assay results that appear to have been leaked. I had a wild ride on this one shortly after buying it, looks like round two is coming up. This is another Sprott pick for anyone interested in doing some DD.

  188. This comment has been removed by the author.

  189. Price of silver each day Globex Net Dania at 5 pm EDT

    11- 40.24 DN 0.69 Monday
    12- 40.00 DN 0.24 Tuesday
    13- 40.60 UP 0.60 Wednesday
    14- 42.11 UP 1.51 Thursday
    15- 42.98 UP 0.87 Friday

    18- 43.38 UP 0.38 Monday
    19- 43.93 UP 0.57 Tuesday
    20- 45.22 UP 1.29 Wednesday
    21- 46.58 UP 1.58 Thursday
    22- 46.74 UP 0.16 Friday

    25- 46.84 UP 0.10 Monday

    Nine days up for silver using the above time as a closing. Never before has this happened since I began charting this stuff with excel spreadsheets. Albeit, we barely eeked by with only 10 cent over last Fridays Asian markets close. So, while we had an EE attack with 49.78 high point to 45.63 the low point since opening yesterday on the Globex with an astounding 4.25 peak to trough in silver(a record), we nonetheless closed up just barely.

    What does all this mean? It's indicative of a major paradigm shift of biblical proportions. It indicates some very profound changes are afoot.

    I pray the Chinese will come in and take advantage of these lows and give us a nice FUBM this evening. However, they may wait until all this FMOC nonsense is over and the criminal plot their next insane strategy to rob us all of our hard earned wealth.

    Nobody, but nobody expresses anger so beautifully in poetic prose as does afrum. Keep it up afrum its very therapeutic and informative as well. Thank you !!

  190. A few questions noting the dramatic silver swings:

    (1) How can the silver daily price gap up on Sunday nite, reach a high of over $49/oz., then immediately at the US open suddenly crash about $3.00, UNLESS there was massive manipulation by Blythe/JPM, et al.?

    (2) UNLESS there was manipulation, why would not the BOS keep buying to force the shorts' capitulation?

    (3) Does it not make sense that the BOS from Asia are just waiting for Blythe's raid, and a close of US markets to BTFD?

    (4) The volume during the second raid of today was the highest in over five months. Why?

    (5) Silver is still up approx $0.78 from last Friday's close of $46.06. Does this amount to a change of trend?

    IMHO, top callers are trolls based on a total lack of fundamental awareness.

    All the hype and good cheer notwithstanding, and noting that I do enjoy a good contrarian viewpoint, I still am convinced beyond all reason that Silver has a long way to go before the top.

    Go TURD!!

  191. Thanks to so many for your great ideas. These are exciting times. Our PHYS and PSLV have been treading water for the last few, but I'm holding on - along with all that physical I've been stacking since last summer. I'm not biased toward action, I just hunker down on what must happen next.

    It's always educational to pay a visit to "Turd Central Station" - there is no substitute for understanding the fundamentals of what is happening here, and this place deepens my knowledge base every day.

    I lurk much more than I post, but I just had to throw in an attaboy for our best sources - you know who you are. And don't forget - feed the Turd.

  192. MIster

    Just tell your mailman "Oh, I thought that canned bacon would never get here!"

  193. We had to have a correction eventually with that last run, I'd say most of us were betting on it being today or tomorrow anyway and for different reasons too. This is good, I'd rather see pullbacks now rather than just one parabolic move up with no small correction in between. Each of these drops and the increased volatility are good signs in my eyes, more proof that silver is waking up and realizing it has some catching up to do.

  194. oldNavy, the return address is a 3-letter abbreviation of the dealer's business name and a PO box. There's nothing there to give away the contents. The carrier made a guess based on the weight/density of the smallish package.

    Fort, I'm definitely considering alternate shipping addresses. Even a PO box would probably be safer.

  195. Turd, how big of a "feeding" will it take to get that new site running? There is a number of traders here that I'd love to talk with and discuss what's going on but I don't want to clutter up the blog. That chat would be really usefull right about now. Maybe if we hit $45.50 I'll throw some of my capital on it leveraged enough to give me a $1 cushion and just leave it until we blast through "fitty". Buying in on Thursday while selling before NY opened would have given a great return if leveraged 50x-100x.

  196. FWIW - I finally dumped my GPL today (last miner I held). I made a bunch of money on GPL previously, but I got into this last little batch when it was at $4.70 or so.

    I didn't dump it because I don't think miners are ever going to come back, I dumped it because:

    1) my core holding is PHYSICAL, period.
    2) I bought a bunch of the junior miners "for fun" with "discretionary funds," and made some money, but for this batch of GPL to come back to break even would take more time than I'm willing to spend, so I sold for the loss and will put the funds to work again within a few days, probably back in AGQ.

    If you are "forced" to stay in paper because of 401K/IRA reasons and are looking for long term buy and hold, I agree that the miners are smart plays.

    I'm not constrained by that and therefore I dumped. I can make up the loss and more the way AGQ moves, but again, this is my choice based upon my personal situation...

    ... people need to keep that in mind... what to buy or sell, options vs ETFs vs stocks, leverage or no leverage, are all PERSONAL decisions based on PERSONAL circumstances. When I was training junior leaders in the Army, I used to tell them, "You have to be YOU... don't try to be someone else, it won't work." Same is true here in "investingland."

    Just my two cents (which decayed to about 1.98766245 cents while I was typing).

  197. Yuke,

    I for one am more than happy to take in quality dissenting views. How do you think I became such an accomplished contrarian and longtime PM owner? Most of us weren't born, we're converts who were just smart enough to listen to and act on good info from good people.

    Thing is I'm fanatical about the freshness and quality of the information I consume. The fact that BM and 321 provide sh*t for unknowing or unwary consumers is the reason I avoid him, not b/c of what he thinks Ag will do. His awful track record on Ag price calls is there for all to see and requires no comment from me.

    How many times does a source have to prove themselves unreliable to be discarded? For me, not more than once. And BM shits all over himself frequently since I first became aware of him years ago.

    You want wrong? You'll really like Bob.

  198. Coin Shop Report

    Over the past few days I'm seeing a big jump up in gold coins available in my shops. More gold than I've seen in these shops in several months. Stacks of Krugerrands, stacks of Austrian 100 Corona's, piles of old U.S. $5 gold pieces. I think the $1500 handle on the gold price has brought sellers out of the woodwork. And these are guys bringing in a handful of gold, not a coin or two. If you are looking to be a local buyer, then you should be seeing a better selection than you've seen in months. I did a little swap myself. A Mexico 20 peso just came home to Papa.

  199. So, when are volume number coming out (I always just read Harvey to get them)? I'd say this could be the first 200k+ contracts trading day for silver, if there has never been one before.. for sure not this year.