Be Cautious

I am, once again, flat in silver. I bought 2 May 47s this morning at 35 and sold them an hour later at 70. I still have my June 1550s in gold but I'm about to sell them, too, if we get to 1515.

You have to admit that this is playing out almost exactly as planned. We've plummeted once. I'm sure that move was enough to shake out a lot quite a few of the fresh silver longs. I highly doubt that that is it. There will be another down leg. Options expire tomorrow and you've got this weird Fed news conference scheduled for Wednesday. That's more than enough ammo for The Cartel to give the silver tree a really good shake.

Nothing has changed, however. I will be looking to buy July silver calls at $45.50 and, as The Witch said over the weekend, we may even see $45. I'll be buying there, too.

Here are four charts with some guidance. I'll be out of pocket for most of the afternoon so, from here, you're on your own. I'll try to check in later, probably not until at least 6:00 pm EDT. TF

5:45 pm EDT UPDATE:

As predicted this morning, the goons at the CME raised margins again this afternoon. No shit. Really? No! 

"If I had to guess, the dip will come on the back of a margin increase from the goons at the CME. It won't/can't be a puny little increase, either, as the market will simply shrug it off if it is. No, it will likely be more substantial this time. In fact, you've already got Disinformation Agents like this shill practically begging for one:
http://www.businessinsider.com/rein-in-rampant-speculation-or-face-the-black-silver-swan-2011-4?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheMoneyGame+%28The+Money+Game%29
All in the name of the greater good. "Please, CME. Save us from an overall market collapse by reining in silver."

Once again, The Cartel clearly gave notice to their buddies and silver sold off well before the announcement. Getting this behind, however, us is good news!! No need to worry about another margin increase anytime soon. 

Now, in a sell the rumor but buy the news type of event, the selling may diminish and silver may head straight back to $50. It also might not. I still think that the highest likelihood probability is for silver to head down again tonight and tomorrow and retest the lows of this morning, near 45.50. It may even make it all the way down to $45. Again, IF that happens, I will be an aggressive buyer of July calls as I expect a move toward $50 or even $52 by late next week.

That's it for now. I hope that I was able to help you navigate this extremely crazy day. Be sure to check back in tomorrow. TF out!