Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Glad To Be Wrong

The Turd is very happy to see a rebounding PM price this morning. As I retired last evening, silver was once again breaking $40 and I feared that the Great Carry Panic II was on. So far, so good. Instead, sanity has returned. The dollar is down. Gold is back above 1465. Silver is pushing 41. Crude made it all the way to 107.87 before reversing. Let's see if this can be a Happy Tuesday. All I know is that I'm going to be a little cautious when we approach $42 again. The sharp reversal of yesterday will give Ruprecht plenty of incentive to try his dirty tricks at that level next time.

Here's the best looking chart of the bunch, gold. I had given you 1465 as a clear level to watch yesterday. That number has now acted as both support and resistance so it is obviously has significance. Happily, we are back above it as I type. Now we need to kick away like Secretariat  and move toward 1472 and, from there, the old highs of 1478.
Silver, though ding well, is almost as pretty. It found great support at/near $40. It then broke through 40.40 and then retested and held that level. The next target is $40.80 and then $41.
Of course, I would be remiss if I did not give you an updated picture of the dollar:
As you can see, its not looking good. It has rolled over and looks dead.

OK, here's a real chart, though it looks about the same:
There HAS TO BE support for the POSX at the lows of Friday. There HAS TO BE. Look at this monthly chart:
So the question is: What "event" will save the dollar this time?
1) Another global financial collapse?
2) SPIN of a recovering US economy?
3) Breakup of the Euro?
4) Catastrophic MENA war?
5) U.S. budget/deficit reduction?

Hmmmm...Well....I suppose we can rule out #5. They tried #2 last time. Didn't work then. Won't work now. #1 would only make matters worse for the TBTF so I doubt they try that one. #3 is kind of an old reliable. They could run out another PIIG and see if the euro rolls over. Maybe. But if the euro were to dissolve, the new Deutsche Mark would only challenge the dollar further so that's no good. No...gotta go with #4. Of all the options, #4 provides the quickest and safest answer for the Fed/TBTF/Govt complex.

OK, its 9:20 EDT. The metals are hanging in there, but just barely. The dollar is getting smoked but the long bond is up. Go figure. The euro is almost to 1.45.
Its going to be a very,very interesting day. Keep your brain turned on. TF

64 comments:

  1. Lets see how that million dollar put bet opens this morn.


    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/drop-silver-attributed-1-million-37-downside-bet-slv

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  2. Here comes the usual morning beat-down. Higher lows.

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  3. Anyone know what is going on in the Peruvian Elections? Here is my take:

    At 86% of ballots counted in Peru's elections, Keiko Fujimori has established a comfortable lead over Pedro Pablo Kuczynski. The tally according to the National Elections Office is:

    1. Ollanta Humala 31.4%
    2. Fujimori 23.2%
    3. Kuczynski 19.2%
    4. Alejandro Toledo 15.3%

    http://www.livinginperu.com/news-14628-2011-elections-update-peru-election-results-86-pct-keiko-4-pct-over-ppk

    -
    From a conversation I just had with my brother, he mentions a run-off on June 5th because somebody needs 50% to win. Does this mean that the race is for 2nd place, to be in the run-off vs Hamala? If this was the case would it be reasonable to expect that Hamala would not do so well in a one on one runoff vs a "normal" politician because of his militaristic viewpoints?

    I would imagine that the Kuczynski and Alejandro Toledo camps would support Fujimori more in a "politician" vs "military leader." Kind of like when Hillary Clinton supporters flocked to Barrack Obama after swearing off on him. However, I have no background on this situation and was wondering if anyone has any input on this.

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  4. The price of a cup of coffee at Canada's "national" chain went up about 4%.

    There was a promotion running to win prizes including lots of free coffees over the past month. Predicted to my friends that the price would go up as soon as the promo was over after seeing Turd's commodities charts.

    Yep that's what happened.

    Sucks to be right and somehow I doubt being right on this one will get me converts.

    Note to fellow Canadians - the tims I hit every morning still has large roll up the rim cups and I got a winner this morning so with silver recovering I'm in a great mood.

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  5. This is a question out of my own naivete, but is there an option (6), which is to use some of the magically poofed-into-being dollars to (a) aggressively short other currencies (to maintain the dollar's value relative to other fiats), (b) aggressively short commodities where there's currently a substantial (and very elastic) investment demand, and (c) aggressively subsidize commodities produced in the US for which the demand is inelastic but supply could be increased with greater prices paid to the producers?

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  6. bud-wiser

    a very good take on that zerohedge article you posted is available by a fellow named Brother John which you can see at the link below ...

    I don't remember who it was who suggested Brother John as a source of info a few weeks ago on this blog but whomever you are .... THANKS !!

    http://www.youtube.com/user/BrotherJohnF?feature=uploademail_ch

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  7. Holy cow....

    http://www.futurespros.com/energies/crude-oil-streaming-chart

    Oil Just dropped from 109.82 to 107.42 in the last hour and change. Silver and Gold holding on very nice to be taking this kind of pressure so well...

    It could overpower the metals soon though if oil doesn't catch a bid. Lot's of stuff coming out today, including speeches by figureheads and a new set of POMOs at 2pm EST.

    Wild day in front of us it looks like.

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  8. Wow, just found out why:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-advises-clients-sell-brent-down-105-goldman-client-facing-team-better-buyer

    What a crock of shit.

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  9. The news on oils slide appears to be the MSM cycle this a.m. about Israel's shale oil potential.

    How low will the POSX go in this free fall?
    It's worrisome to watch and think about but it is what it is which is the reason we are here at TF's website doing what we do.

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  10. Preventative pre-capitulation.

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  11. @ Scott88

    Re: Peruvian Elections

    That's my understanding; whoever is in the runoff against Humala will eventually win the election as the supporters for the other two candidates that lost will throw their support to Humala's opponent.

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  12. Possible plan B: Fed increases interest rates by 25 basis points, but also announces QE3.

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  13. Tough morning so far. Lots of good set-ups going nowhere. ONce again, the GDX can't shake off the broader market's decline.
    Sitting tight, waiting for this to unfold.

    SK

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  14. down comes the hammer... 40.29...

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  15. Someone please tell me the meaning of BTFD and FUBM.

    Gracias

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  16. Is this the lower dip, or should we wait for a lower low?

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  17. Yes, Scott, the GS oil comments are nothing but SPIN. Complete nonsense.
    I am confident that GS is buying all the way down.

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  18. I can't help but think that Goldman and others are pushing the newscycle the last 24 hr.s regarding oil and the huge U.S. strategic oil reserve and Israels shale discovery and Goldmans well publicized positons sell off yesterday etc...
    Just leads me to belive that they are herding the sheep one way while they are re-positioning at a lower entry point again.
    Oil will trade higher, it's only a matter of time.

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  19. BTFD = Buy the Dip and FUBM = Take that Blythe Masters

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  20. hopefully wont miss dip this time around.

    I sold GDXJ @ 40.4 about a month or so ago and gold was much lower then, now gold is much higher but GDXJ still @ 40.4

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  21. Glad to see TF feels the same way as I was writing my post.

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  22. Buy the F*ing Dip
    F You Blythe Masters

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  23. Physical silver is doing exactly what is expected.

    From a fundamental standpoint, it is impossible for physical silver to be priced at such low levels unless there is manipulation.

    Hence, silver will continue to rise, right on cue, and will correct as expected on its way up. Simple as that.

    I am a buy and hold person. Nothing will separate me from my physical silver. To get my silver will require one to first get past many thousand grams of lead traveling at high velocity.

    I know of not a single thing which is a valuable in a collapse as precious metals. Nothing.

    Precious metals can be hidden or transported with minimal effort. There is no reporting to the government. There is no other counter party risk to actual possession of physical.

    Even farmland risks government taxation, but physical does not.

    So, I really do enjoy the theatrics of the manipulation, and I simply accumulate on the dips.

    Thanks to Turd, and the vast majority of posters on this excellent blog, I have been able to not only confirm my own due diligence, but learn from incredibly diverse world viewpoints. That my friends, is priceless.

    Hi ho, Silver!!

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  24. FUBM=Fuck You, Blow Me...BTFD=Buy The Fucking Dip

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  25. It always happens like this. Falls tens times faster than it rises. Months of profit wiped out in two to three days.

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  26. Amazing how oversold the miners are when we are still at $40 silver. Ridiculous!

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  27. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  28. That just now hurt. I think i'm bleeding.

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  29. Looks like they are clearing out the weak hands

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  30. Troller,

    Just wish we could all be as wise as you. Please grace us with more of your brilliance. On a day when people are seriously hurting, we all need to hear from one of life's great smug and pompous assholes.

    SK

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  31. This is what I'm thinking...

    Now that oil has been supressed by the MSM newscycle effectively (and GS's supposed sell off) it strikes me that they now have lots of ammo to go after gold and silver again.
    It feels to me like that is what is happening.

    I'll put this out there for your opinions... if oil starts to get out of control again that the selling pressure in both PM's will abate again like the last two weeks.

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  32. I don't trust this DIP, I still have yesterdays experience in my head, blood and guts. I think the bitch will make it go a lot lower today 39.20 or something like that as TF mentioned previously.

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  33. Please don't feed the troglodites.
    It's like giving seagulls french fries.

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  34. Lets see... Goldman talks oil, and commodities in general, down, stocks down (seems there's a radiation issue in Japan... wow, who saw that coming), and of course Blythe is busy bangin' the PMs... lets see, where will the money flow?

    Bond auctions today... hmmmmm.

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  35. Gold and silver falling like a rock.... 1450 / 40.10

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  36. The McClellans say that oil does what gold does but with a 4 month delay.

    Wasn't gold going down 4 months ago?

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  37. If I were a Goldman client, I would ask to take the opposite side of anything they suggest. Just like shorting the company you are bankrupting by selling bad debt too. I am sure they are taking the other side of this. Commodity prices will not shoot down - they may be slightly over-bought, but war and devastation do not drive commodity prices down, no matter what the powers that be want.

    Irene - I loved this line:

    "His Open Society Institute was just a cover to secretly spread his tentacles into every corner of the globe along with his subversive ideology. The only thing anyone needs to know about him is that he is a megalomaniac with visions of himself personally ruling the world."

    I remember thinking about what word I could use when describing Soros, and tentacles was what I hit upon. My hubby also always thinks the best of people, and while endearing, it does cast me in the role of watch-dog, constantly checking my spidey senses. So you have a lovely character flaw, and don't swing totally to the other side of constant suspicion.

    Folks saying vamoose might be right - his descriptive word for Saudi's was truly beyond the pale. Defend his argument, but do not defend him. Between him and Viking, it is enough to stop me - it is one thing to dislike Blythe Masters, it is another to discuss her like a piece of meat. Racist, misogynists both.

    Fortinbras - I liked your description of the different threads for the new site, and was glad when you said we needed one for the daily group hug, even if that is what it seems to be to others. I do not recall any huddling in fear, though.

    Now that was a good dip! - Just like clockwork.

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  38. Notice how silver stopped at 40 and was pushed all the way down to 1444 in the recent 4$ takedown of oil with another dollar to go before the Goldman target is hit. Interesting that the target takes hours to be achieved on such a drastic call. In my opinion, this low oil price won't stick for long.

    What I am saying is when OIL bottoms, and if 1444 and 40 are still in tact, we could have new floors. Gold fell a long way while silver just retested and held onto 40 strong.

    Dow is down big today, but the POMO schedule being released (although seemingly maybe lighter from what I can gather from Zerohedge), and some "Fed Speak" may cause a late day rally in the markets.

    Remember at 1410 range in gold we had a quadruaple bottom. There is serious buying support in these markets, no matter how much pressure is thrown at it.

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  39. They're really pushing the volatility now.

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  40. Chin Music

    I've recently discovered brother john, he explains things very well...helped clarify a few things about options for me.

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  41. @atlee - any thoughts re: opportunistic buying targets for EXK?

    Much Obliged, sir

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  42. Gold had the re-test of $1444, just like turd said it would. I bought that dip. I'm still a bit too shy to go back into the paper silver.

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  43. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MNQ5V740LDY&feature=related

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  44. @Titus,

    Just milk that bitch, don't be shy. She has plenty of POSX monies for all of us :))))

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  45. Thanks Xty... and sometimes, "group hug" = "huddling in fear." Everyone needs it sooner or later, it wasn't a slap at anyone... without the collective strength this website gives, most of the people here would have abandoned the fight... again, the beauty of the internet... scourge of governments/institutionsin general... they lose power, just don't underestimate the power that they still yield, especially in the near term and daily fights.

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  46. @California Lawyer, you make good points but one also has to consider that can be very risky to travel with physical, and home invasion is always a possibility. Cross the wrong border and your wealth will be seized. No one is invulnerable to robbery, no matter how many alarms, guns and dogs he has. We should talk about alternatives to diversify away from home possession. I like goldmoney.com.

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  47. Are the fundamentals still there in Silver, or has anything changed in the last 24 hrs that the Bernankies are worth a lot more?

    Manipulation NEVER HOLDS an eternity

    So, dont sweat the small stuff.

    Yes, I am worried, I'm bleeding and yesterday I was part of BM evil claw, only to enter today at the highest price in AGQ

    Lets not forget the fundamentals, dont sweat the small stuff and just hold.

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  48. $40 is starting to look pretty strong.

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  49. @MisesFan

    EXK $10.20. Thats where my orders are. Solid support from 9.84 to 9.97

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  50. I've been lightening up on my oils, but if I see 105ish again I'm going back in.

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  51. Wow ..what an interesting day's worth of threads I just caught up on.

    This is my take-away: Commodities could get crushed. They might not. PM's might get slammed. They might not. Paper silver will will most likely go to it's intrinsic value but we don't know when. We could go up suddenly from here in all commodities and metals but it will most likely be a slow accent with corrections along the way.

    The whole bottom line for me is to just HOLD. I can't buy as much as some of you on these dips. Sometimes...in fact most of the time.....I can't buy at all. But, I can hold what I have until the underlying fundamentals change. I am just not going to be shaken out. *IF* silver/gold were to plummet to 2008 lows I would consider it a 2nd chance to do what I did not know to do back in 2008.

    So.. the whole day-past series of comments just made me more sure that I need to be right where I am. ............sure hope I'm not wrong. lol.

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  52. Miners down 10% - 25% since yesterday.. Pretty intense.. They seem to overreact to the downside when silver dips and underperform when silver rises.. I'm not sure I like this behavior.

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  53. Conditioning of the masses for a new era without paper money:

    http://www.pe.com/localnews/stories/PE_News_Local_D_socialsecurity12.23c44c5.html

    In California, welfare recipients get plastic cards. Now, federally, Social Security recipients get plastic cards.

    Think about it: when you get gas, you swipe your card right at the pump. When you get groceries, you swipe your card right at the register. On and on it goes.

    The next stop, is to declare paper money illegal and that all transactions must officially take place by use of a plastic card [or some other biometric device, which is almost certainly perfected by now].

    All signs point to a currency collapse. The question is whether the dollar plunges off the cliff by summer or not.

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  54. alyce

    yes, I agree ... have received much insight from all here with honorable mention going to TF, Yukon and others which my head spins to remember ... so if I failed to mention other names PLEASE don't feel dissed ... you all are valuable to me. Don't want to ramble and make long posts.

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  55. You have to take what Goldman advises its clients to do with a grain of salt...That usually means that one should pretty much do the opposite if not fade their noise. I know they made a call on gold price in the short term to 1480..but ad nauseum, for various reasons, that call was like saying the sun will rise from the east imo.

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  56. Just read the article on the benefits being delivered by plastic cards. It looked to me like direct deposit to a bank account is still an option. Only paper cheques are ending.

    As long as direct deposit exists then paper money conversion goes on.

    Under a plastic-card-only system the thing that would worry me is loss of privacy and the potential to control where money gets spent.

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  57. @HappyInTheWoods, unless of course your bank is one of these 429 "unlucky" ones so far... http://bankimplode.com/

    ... You, of course know which ones will fail next so you can avoid them right?

    Oh and PS. The FDIC is bankrupt, only Benny Boy is keeping it alive. US dollar death = Ben Death = FDIC death = Your bank account worthless. Best case scenario, is the FDIC stays alive, but your dollars in the bank accounts take a nasty 20 to 50% loss in buying power from here.

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  58. JoeKA.. Makes sense... just move the decimal point :P

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  60. When we have a day like today, I always feel a lil better when I buy me some physical.

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